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Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is time for full

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court Press, Rob the I think the word is penultimate

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show of twenty twenty five. Two shows left in the year,

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of course, New Year's Eve tomorrow the thirtieth. Today, another

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good day of college basketball. Not quite as many games

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just as yesterday, but still a couple of day games.

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More importantly, Rob, more, the bigger conferences are getting involved today.

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Yesterday we had conference play sort of get going for

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a lot of the smaller leagues. But today there's some

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big conference games. The ACC has a couple, the Big East,

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which feels like a mid major league this year, has

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a couple, and you know, there's there's other conferences in

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the mix as well. I love that we're getting a

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conference play, and we'll talk more about that as the

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show goes on, but let's start with I don't know

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if this is necessarily a feature game, but it's nash TV.

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It's the biggest name, and a little bit over a

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week ago, we had Jim Root fill on the fill

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in on the show for me when I was at Drexel.

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That was a couple of weeks ago, and you guys

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talked about North Carolina and specifically you said, well, we're

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really going to have to revisit this game. I think

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the conversation Rob was like just the potential clash of

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styles here and the speed in which these two teams might.

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Speaker 2: Want to play.

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Speaker 1: So kick us off Florida State North Carolina. Did you

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find a way in with the total or the spread here?

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Speaker 3: Well, let's start with the matchup here, Adam, which is

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a contrast in styles, right. FSU obviously wants to go quick,

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number eight in the country in adjusted tempo. Digging even further,

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you find that their possessions are the fifth quickest in

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NCAA Basketball Division One this year, fifth fastest possession length.

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The contrast falls into play there because North Carolina's defense

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is three hundred and fifty third in length of possession

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time allowed, So they make you work to get off

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a shot. FSU doesn't want to do that. So a

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couple other things here. FSU tries to make a living

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inside the arc. And we talked that day and we

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have since then about the length of North Carolina across

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that front line. When you have three six tens or better,

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it's just become a different team in North Carolina defends

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the two almost as well. As anybody in the nation.

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They rank second in two point field goal percentage allowed,

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also good on the perimeter thirteenth. It's going to be

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difficult for Florida State to find open shots unless they

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get open floor in this game, which would mean North

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Carolina has to run with them. I do find it interesting, though, Adam,

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that you can find a really nice comp game on

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FSU schedule.

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Speaker 4: When you look at their game against.

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Speaker 3: Florida on the road, Florida full of bigs across the

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front line, it's their strength, and FSU played them to

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two points seventy eight to seventy six. Now since then,

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they've been blown out on the road by Houston, which

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is also a great rebounding team and great two point defense,

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get beat by fifteen there. But the point spread here

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is right in that range fifteen points North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: I'm not so sure.

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Speaker 3: That that number isn't a bit too high. I'm not

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so sure that this total hasn't been bet up too high.

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It's gone from one fifty seven all the way to

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one sixty three and a half. I think what you

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would have to assume if you're going to get to

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one sixty three and a half or one sixty four,

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which cash is an over ticket. You'd have to assume

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that North Carolina is going to get involved for a

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better part of the forty minutes in a track meet

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with FSU, and you'd have to believe that FSU is

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going to score their share of points. Again, I'll just

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go back to the Florida game where Florida's you know,

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it plays with more pace than UNC, and that game

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only got to one fifty four. I'm not sure what

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the love affair is with the over in this game.

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I would probably look towards it under. I think it's

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to a point now where you can push back and

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play under.

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Speaker 4: The point spread in this game seems to be.

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Speaker 3: Fairly solid, but I still think that's a little bit

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too high as well. You know, the outcome here could be,

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which wouldn't be a surprise at him, is that FSU

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finds it difficult to find shots. FSU doesn't make shots,

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they're not a great shooting team to begin with, and

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North Carolina just pulls away and wins by significant margin.

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But I think the probability of this staying more toward

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the under now. You can get one hundred and sixty

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point game here and still be under the number. That's

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a lot of points, and I think that you know, FS,

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you opening conference game in that venue. It's difficult for sure.

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But again I can't shake the thought that FSU went

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to the o'conno.

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Speaker 4: Center and played Florida to two points.

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Speaker 3: So I would have to probably lean under, as you know,

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my more favorite lean here. And again we always preface

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this stuff by whether we bet the game or not.

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I have not bet it, so I haven't pushed my

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money to the table. So I'm not recommending anybody does theirs.

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But if you're asking for it an analysis, I think

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under is probably the way I would look first.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't bet this one yet either. I think

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my number suggests that the number is a little low.

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I've got this up at seventeen and a half, so

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that was that was a little surprising to me, Like

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that the math, you know, just the math for me

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played out, you know, sort of suggesting that that North

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Carolina had a little bit of line value.

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Speaker 2: Fourteen and a half. It's it's still fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Most places I see a couple of books have gone

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to fifteen at this point.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the way it happens.

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Speaker 1: Rob if it does, is North Carolina kind of pulling away,

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It's hard to believe that they just completely bury at

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su start to finish. Here seems like a thing where

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it's like, you know, if they can, if they start

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to exert their will, if you will, and the tempo

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goes the way that they want to go, and all

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of a sudden they're able to string stops together that

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it could get into that fifteen sixteen, you know, knockout

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punch type range. Certainly North Carolina at home has the

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ability to do that. But you know, I just like

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I found myself looking at Florida State in the fact

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that they've only played two road games so far this year,

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and that's something you're going to kind of see a

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lot over the next couple days where it's like when

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you get.

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Speaker 2: Into Power Conference non power Conference.

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Speaker 1: Play, you're going to see quite a few teams playing

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their first true road game, maybe they've played one road

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because of course, now the way that you know, the

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way that the non conference is built for a lot

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of these teams is teams like Florida State, like North

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Carolina have replaced a lot of their road non con

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games with going to play these MTE neutral court type games.

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So I think it's a little overrated to think, oh, well,

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this team hasn't gone on the road yet this year,

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because typically they've gone somewhere, right, typically they've played someone

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and like, so that to me is like not as.

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Speaker 2: Big of a deal.

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Speaker 1: That being said, I do think North Carolina being at

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home here rob feeding off the crowd, Like, I think

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it's more likely if you go back to your conversation

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with the gym, like, which team sort of dictates how

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this game goes, I think it's probably North Carolina, And

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if they do that, I wouldn't be surprised if they

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win it by double digits. With that being said, fifteen

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is I feel like that's kind of a good number.

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I don't know if I want to lay fourteen and

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a half, but I wouldn't take the points here either,

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So it would be North Carolina or pass for me.

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But but tough game. These are two teams, Rob. I

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feel like me personally, I just need to see more

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of you know, you get to this point in the year,

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there's three hundred and sixty five teams in Division one

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college basketball. Some of them I feel like I have

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a great beat on and some of them. I feel

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like I just can't really assess at all. These two

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teams are the latter for me for sure, so a

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very I guess, an unconfident. I don't know if that's

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a word, but if it's not, I'm gonna call it

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a non confident lead toward you know, toward North Carolina

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for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what's what's interesting here, Adam, is the Houston game

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obviously not favorable attendance wise towards the Seminoles played in

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the Toyota Center, certainly not Houston campus game, but a

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Houston what we'll call semi home game. In the games

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against Flow Florida and Houston, Florida State shot miserably. Hey,

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I'm just looking at the numbers here. The Florida game,

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they shoot thirty four percent from two, they shoot twenty

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six percent from three, and in the Houston game the

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numbers were no better, under forty percent for the game

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and thirty one from three. They didn't even shoot well

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and they came within two and fifteen. But to counter that,

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you have that game against Dayton where they got simply destroyed,

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and you have a game against Georgia, which I think

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you know, Georgia just does what Florida State does better

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and they wound up running them out of the building.

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Luke locks I don't think we mentioned him at all

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this year. You know, for years it was a Leonard

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Hamilton team. But Luke Lox comes in with this. You know,

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they'd like to get to the rim, but they do

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shoot a lot of threes, and it's what they're probably

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gonna need here, Adam. You know, if the threes go

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and they're in open court, they're quick shots, then they

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hang around. But to the point I was trying to

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make earlier, they didn't shoot them well against Florida or Houston,

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and they still hung around. And I would say that

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North Carolina no matter how large, and I don't think

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it's significant, but it is a step down in class.

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And obviously Florida and Houston are better teams than North Carolinas.

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Speaker 4: So we'll see how this goes.

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Speaker 3: I think you could debate it two ways, which makes

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it difficult to bet, and the number doesn't leave us

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a lot of leeway.

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Speaker 4: I still think I would look a little bit toward

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the under.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm just reading some of the chat

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comments here.

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Speaker 1: We'll move on to another game in a second, But

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like Bayou says, you know it could hit one seventy

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no defense when we played, I would say I kind

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of would punch back at this move at this point

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for two reasons. One, North Carolina, if they have their way,

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they're gonna slow this game down, so it's gonna be

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more of a possession type thing too. I'll go to

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I think it was Trevor in the chat tough road spot.

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And then it's like, you know, if the shots aren't

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falling from Florida state, that's how I think that's how

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you get your under and your North Carolina cover. If

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they're not hitting shots, like they could be down ten

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pretty quickly. And then you talk about first year coach

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tough road environment zher and two on the road so

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far this year, and didn't they the road games robbed?

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Speaker 2: Correct me if I'm right.

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Speaker 1: The road games were were Florida and Houston, so obviously

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two tough teams on the road, but they got throttled

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by Dayton somewhere.

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Speaker 2: I just forget where that game was. Yeah, that was

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a game.

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Speaker 4: Was true road.

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Speaker 1: The Houston game was in the Toyota Center, That's right, Okay,

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So that was the one that I was I was

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thinking of, was yeah, going up to Dayton, just get

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absolutely run out by like thirty. More we talk about it,

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the more I think that's on the table for UNC here,

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because that's not like Dayton was playing great ball ahead

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of that game either, And I just think, like, you know,

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North Carolina might just be like that much better where

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if they get the game they want, which I think

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they might at home nine to zero at home this

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year for the tar Heels.

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Speaker 2: Probably a blowout.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to so this one couple of people, Well,

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let's do this first.

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Speaker 2: I wore the zip up.

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Speaker 1: I told my buddy Joey Cheese, I'm gonna he likes Princeton. Today,

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I said, I'll throw the Princeton a quarters at Bond

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for you in a show of support.

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Speaker 2: But it also is the gay game.

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Speaker 1: I knew people were gonna want to talk about this one,

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and these are teams so you talk about just you know,

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it's gonna be different for everyone's That to me is

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why college basketball is so great. It's like you can watch,

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like it a substantial amount of college basketball and be

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tuned into something almost entirely different than the next person

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because there's just so many teams. There's so many games.

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It's like, you know, it's so different from other sports.

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If you're watching if you're watching Major League Baseball and

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you're like digging in and tuning it, like what, we're

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gonna probably know a lot of the same stuff, right

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because it's just like there's thirty teams. There's only so

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much to know or to see, whereas like college basketball,

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you know, Vermont Princeton are two teams I watched a

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ton of this year, and so a couple thoughts here,

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So this isn't early tips that the Jadwin jym I Rob,

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Have you been to Jadwin Jim? That was a really

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cool building that's out in Princeton, New Jersey.

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Speaker 4: It's close. You kind of haven't been there.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, Princeton's gonna have a home game here. Vermont is

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taking a ton of money. Princeton has had their best

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player out for a while, although I don't I don't

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know if he's really their best player. He's he's on

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paper he's their best player. That'd be Dylan Dalen Davis.

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But you know, to me, like how much does that

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really factor into the number at this point? I mean,

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he's been out for some time, has not played since

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the Northeastern game on November twentieth. Uh Malik Abdullah abdula

266
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High I'm probably pronouncing that wrong, returned against Merrimack and

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then he played his full minutes against Temple thirty one minutes,

268
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went for twenty one points and seven rebounds. So like

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that was a great boost for Princeton. I guess I'm

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not quite sure why Vermont is taking all this money.

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That's my first thought with this game is why is

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Vermont suddenly a three and a half point road favorite.

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When they opened minus one, which is where I have

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this power, reading Vermont minus one, I actually had a pick.

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And then at this point I'm giving I'm giving the

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opposing team one point for Davis still being out. So

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I guess for me here, Rob, I disagree with the money,

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and I could only punch back with the home Princeton

279
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Tigers here. But Vermont's pretty good. They they worked out Sianna.

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We had no chance in that game. They had a

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counter for everything Sianna wanted to do. Gus Yalden has

282
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been a revelation for the Catamount as a guy that

283
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came over from Seaton Hall, barely played, never played at

284
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Wisconsin since stepping foot on the floor for Vermont. I

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mean he plays twenty minutes a game, he's averaging like

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twenty points. As efficient of a guy offensively as you're

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going to find at this level.

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Speaker 2: In spite of that, I still think I leaned the Tigers.

289
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Can you talk me off of Princeton here.

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Speaker 3: Ron, It'd be hard. Not that I couldn't make a

291
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case for Vermont. Obviously, Princeton they've lost I don't know

292
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what is it, eight to nine in a row, just

293
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hasn't been good for them. Of course, Dave is one

294
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of the contributing factors that think. When I looked it

295
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up this morning, he had missed six games straight and

296
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had been the leading scorer up until that point. But

297
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they just, you know, both teams want to play slow

298
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first off. In my mind, it leads you directly toward well,

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let's maybe try a shot at.

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Speaker 4: The under here.

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Speaker 3: I look at there are some common opponent games right,

302
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with some recent to them. One side beats Merrimack by seven,

303
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the other side loses to Merrimack by three. Vermont the winner, Princeton,

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the loser Princeton. Even with some additions or in addition

305
00:16:13,399 --> 00:16:17,480
to the roster fell short against Temple, which is not

306
00:16:17,519 --> 00:16:19,720
a really good defensive team. I kind of look at

307
00:16:19,759 --> 00:16:24,320
it like Vermont to me, Adam, they're both so mirror image, right,

308
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,799
They're both always good defensively, they're both always slow paced.

309
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,759
Vermont to me, is the better rebounding team. If you

310
00:16:31,799 --> 00:16:33,840
can get some second chance points and you can get

311
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,799
yourself to the free throw line, that's helpful. The road

312
00:16:36,919 --> 00:16:40,200
environment is not helpful. But again, I'll use the phrase

313
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I use for a lot.

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Speaker 4: Of teams.

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Speaker 3: Over the course of time prior shows, and it will come.

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Speaker 4: In the future too.

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Speaker 3: As being venue proof, I don't think Vermont walks anywhere

318
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and is intimidated by any venue. That's been such a

319
00:16:55,399 --> 00:16:59,200
good low major probably should classify them as a mid

320
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,039
major for so long now that you don't walk into

321
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,680
the gym and you're overwhelmed by Princeton. I don't know

322
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,440
that Princeton can score enough here. I don't know that

323
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,039
they'll allow enough. I totally agree with the fact that

324
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:13,599
the games come from one forty down to one thirty

325
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,079
eight and a half. At one thirty eight and a

326
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:20,680
half in this price range, you're asking for seventy one

327
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,559
sixty seven Vermont to be a cover, and under seventy

328
00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:26,960
one to sixty seven sounds a lot in a game

329
00:17:27,079 --> 00:17:29,319
like this, to me, sounds like a lot, So I

330
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,079
would probably look under and I would suggest just that,

331
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,079
you know, maybe in the beginning people weren't aware of

332
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,640
the Daleen Davis injury, but when it occurs five to

333
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,680
six seven games, now more people become aware. And I

334
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,440
always think these lines move based off of injuries. So

335
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,240
that's the only explanation I have for one to three

336
00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:52,920
and a half. But I would look under the total

337
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:59,400
here under one thirty eight and a half.

338
00:17:58,599 --> 00:18:02,319
Speaker 1: Up you're muted, sorry enough that that's a great point,

339
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,079
rob Like when you get eight games removed from a

340
00:18:05,079 --> 00:18:09,400
guy being out, like, there's just not much that it's

341
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,680
gonna do to the number at that point. And I

342
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,359
think that's where we're probably at with Princeton right now.

343
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,920
Speaker 2: I think the the.

344
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 1: Number is what it is, Like I couldn't possibly bump

345
00:18:21,039 --> 00:18:23,319
this number more than like a point for him being out,

346
00:18:23,599 --> 00:18:27,759
Like certainly he matters to the team, But at this point,

347
00:18:27,799 --> 00:18:30,400
the books have have had now had eight games to

348
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,960
price Princeton appropriately. Now I kind of see where the

349
00:18:34,079 --> 00:18:36,920
Vermont money would would come from. They've been far more

350
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,680
impressive than Princeton so far this year. The thing that

351
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,119
I would say, the only thing that's that's caused me

352
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,480
to not click this yet right and put this in

353
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,799
at Princeton plus three and a half, is I question

354
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,440
Princeton being having any sort of toughness, that they're kind

355
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,160
of soft. They've always been that way, right, Like that's

356
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,759
that I don't think there's been. I mean, the Princeton

357
00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:01,599
team that went to the Sweet sixteen a couple of

358
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,279
years ago was probably an exception, But the last couple

359
00:19:04,279 --> 00:19:08,799
of years they don't have much of an interior like

360
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,920
toughness type presence. And of course you know the name

361
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,319
is escaping me, but I think it was Pierced, the

362
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,200
guy that decided to sit out this year and he's

363
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,920
gonna transfer. Was kind of like the post scorer on

364
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,960
this team. Now, it's just like, you know, they're gonna

365
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:26,599
have their they're gonna get their back cut and get

366
00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:28,440
a lay up every once in a while. But this

367
00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:31,440
is a team that's only averaging sixty eight points per

368
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,799
game three hundred and thirty fifth nationally. They don't really

369
00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:37,319
get good looks like that's the other thing This is

370
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,400
like Princeton last year when they still had Xavi and

371
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,599
Lee and had a couple three point shooters. Rich Remember,

372
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,359
last year's Princeton team was was very disappointing in terms

373
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,359
of like where they were projected to land. If you

374
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,640
go back to the beginning of last year, Princeton was

375
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,720
like the odds on favorite to win the Ivy. They

376
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,359
didn't come close to that, but they still could hit

377
00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,119
the three. This year's Princeton team thirty two point fo

378
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,200
percent from three point rings. That's awful for a team

379
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,599
that really relies on the three to score two hundred

380
00:20:06,599 --> 00:20:09,200
and fifty fourth nationally. It is why they are three

381
00:20:09,319 --> 00:20:12,519
hundred and thirty seventh nationally in field goal percentage. And

382
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,680
the thing I noticed watching Vermont play Sianna. If you

383
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,799
they're gonna Vermont's gonna have the better game plan here.

384
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 2: They they that's the thing. They will have the better

385
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:23,759
game plan.

386
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 1: And if they force Princeton into just taking tough shots,

387
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,240
which Princeton will do, and Princeton allows Vermont to run

388
00:20:31,279 --> 00:20:35,119
their offense, that's the problem. That That's why I don't

389
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,559
think I can actually bet Princeton here. It's just Vermont's

390
00:20:38,559 --> 00:20:40,839
shown the ability to execute with the alden out there,

391
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,240
and if they do that, then you're gonna be sitting

392
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,799
here like, oh well, that's clearly why this got bet

393
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,720
from one to three and a half. So I'm you know,

394
00:20:49,839 --> 00:20:52,480
I my numbers say Princeton, but I've seen enough of

395
00:20:52,519 --> 00:20:56,400
these two teams to not want, not be sure about

396
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:58,839
wanting to actually get to the window with that.

397
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 2: Take them real quick.

398
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 3: I'm gonna just say one thing here about rebounding. You

399
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:09,319
look at these two teams and they're both in the

400
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,720
three hundreds in offensive rebounding, yet they're both top twenty

401
00:21:13,759 --> 00:21:16,480
five in defensive rebounding. And the reason for that, and

402
00:21:16,519 --> 00:21:19,079
it's been this way for Princeton ever since Pete Carill

403
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,880
was the head coaches these two teams. They don't send

404
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,000
people to the glass. John Becker the same thing. They're

405
00:21:25,039 --> 00:21:28,000
always a bad offensive rebounding team because they're more worried

406
00:21:28,039 --> 00:21:31,440
about transition deepens than they are about getting second shots.

407
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,599
So to your point about Princeton having to take tough

408
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,960
looks and not getting second chances, then it's going to

409
00:21:39,039 --> 00:21:41,759
be difficult to get to this total on both sides

410
00:21:42,279 --> 00:21:44,759
because the same goes for Princeton Vermont's not going to

411
00:21:44,799 --> 00:21:48,480
get second chances. And to your point again about thinking

412
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,440
that Vermont will execute their offense better, That's probably what

413
00:21:52,519 --> 00:21:55,359
it comes down to, sidewise. I just this one thirty

414
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,119
eight and a half is really to me looking higher

415
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,200
and higher by the second.

416
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: Someone says, why is that I'm always looking left. I've

417
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,480
got screens to do this show. When you guys are

418
00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:08,759
just like, hey Vermont Princeton, Hey talk about Southeast Louisiana.

419
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,279
Speaker 2: I've got three screens going.

420
00:22:10,319 --> 00:22:13,039
Speaker 1: My big one is right here, the camera is right here,

421
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,039
and then i have another small one.

422
00:22:15,079 --> 00:22:16,599
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm usually looking left.

423
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,599
Speaker 1: The other thing that someone in the chat makes a

424
00:22:18,599 --> 00:22:21,039
good point, Yeah, like Princeton does not run like the

425
00:22:21,079 --> 00:22:23,960
Princeton offense anymore. I mean it's not air Force, it's

426
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,839
not Joe Scott, but like still like most of most

427
00:22:27,839 --> 00:22:30,680
of their layups come from like slipping to the hoop

428
00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:33,359
right or like last year it was like Xavian Lee

429
00:22:33,519 --> 00:22:35,640
kind of just crafting his way in which he could

430
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:36,000
do at that.

431
00:22:36,279 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: I mean, he was really good at doing that.

432
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,799
Speaker 1: Now they just don't get a lot of that, And

433
00:22:39,799 --> 00:22:42,799
that's what brings me to you know why I'm probably

434
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:44,960
not gonna bet this game. They just don't get the

435
00:22:45,039 --> 00:22:48,759
quality of shot that you would want to back a

436
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,960
team like in this price range right against a Vermont

437
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,960
team that, unless they just come in sleep walking on

438
00:22:56,039 --> 00:22:58,359
a one pm tip, is the better team.

439
00:22:58,400 --> 00:22:59,839
Speaker 2: That's why this is difficult.

440
00:23:00,079 --> 00:23:02,559
Speaker 1: That being said, Rob, I think your underhandicap actually probably

441
00:23:02,559 --> 00:23:04,920
makes the most sense if you want to bend this game.

442
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,759
All right, let's go with let me see if I can.

443
00:23:12,839 --> 00:23:14,359
Let me see if I can figure out how to

444
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:19,920
do this. They're in here somewhere, we have a oh,

445
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,599
here we go. Let me let me pull this up

446
00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:25,759
for a second, so look at that. We've got a graphic.

447
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,400
It is five dollars Tuesday. And for a second, you

448
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,079
don't have to look at me, look left at my

449
00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:33,279
odd screen. You can just look at this nice graphic

450
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,240
that a producer Dan has built for us. But Rob,

451
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,920
five dollars Tuesday today everyone will have a play on

452
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,119
the site. All non five percent plays are five dollars.

453
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,440
And the reason that I clarify that is I've got

454
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,400
my first five percent college basketball play of the year today.

455
00:23:49,799 --> 00:23:54,519
I kind of had premeditated decided that I was going

456
00:23:54,559 --> 00:23:56,319
to do that this year or you know what you

457
00:23:56,759 --> 00:23:59,279
obviously it's been no Oh, I just messed up our

458
00:23:59,319 --> 00:24:03,119
screen badly, but obviously, like there's been no secret. I

459
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,799
did not have the strongest start to the college basketball season,

460
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,400
but I took something from from something you were way

461
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:10,119
ahead of the curve on.

462
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,319
Speaker 2: So I gotta give you credit here, Rob.

463
00:24:11,319 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 1: I remember doing the panel show with you and Joe

464
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,200
and Erians the host me you. We would have three

465
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:20,240
different panelists, we'd rotate, and as soon as the like

466
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,119
transfer portal started, you really started to pump the brakes

467
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,519
in November December in terms of like the number of

468
00:24:26,599 --> 00:24:29,640
units you were actually risking on games because of this

469
00:24:29,759 --> 00:24:32,400
whole it's such a free throwl And someone on Twitter

470
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,119
was giving me a hard time the other day, which is,

471
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,359
you know, normal for this business, but he was like, you, oh,

472
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,640
you think you're just gonna have a better conference season

473
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,039
when you didn't have a good non conference when when

474
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,359
there's edges to be had in the non conference play.

475
00:24:46,599 --> 00:24:49,519
And so my response, Rob was I've been beaten numbers

476
00:24:49,559 --> 00:24:52,640
left and right, my CLV, my my market assessment has

477
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:57,160
been great, but the the randomness of the outcomes in

478
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,640
November and deceventh December are so high, and I think

479
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,519
that's what you were getting at years ago when you're like, hey,

480
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,160
these rosters are really different than they You know, we

481
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,759
got to give we need some like in season data,

482
00:25:09,039 --> 00:25:13,000
and college basketball has become that on steroids at this point,

483
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:13,519
has it not?

484
00:25:15,319 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: It definitely has Adam, and I think it was about

485
00:25:19,319 --> 00:25:22,279
three or four years ago where I decided basically that

486
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,599
I was just gonna sporadically play through November and December

487
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,839
and then try to play full force college basketball.

488
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 4: From January on.

489
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,319
Speaker 3: This year, I took a little bit of a different

490
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,200
approach approach. I've played more volume, but I've just lowered

491
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,599
the unit size to the point where I don't even know.

492
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,319
I'm trying to think maybe I've had two to three

493
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,319
percent plays. For those who don't know what we're talking

494
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,559
about with the percent at wager talk dot com, when

495
00:25:47,559 --> 00:25:50,039
we release plays, they're on a scale from one to

496
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,279
five percent of your bank groll. Five percent, which Adam

497
00:25:53,319 --> 00:25:56,359
has onen going today, being the strongest recommendation we can

498
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,640
make on a game might have all been ninety nine percent,

499
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,359
have been two percent or less.

500
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,039
Speaker 4: Even if I feel confiden.

501
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 3: It's two percent or less until, as you mentioned, until

502
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,519
we get into this spot where we now know where

503
00:26:08,599 --> 00:26:12,359
the cohesiveness lies, what the coaching change has actually meant

504
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,279
to the team, what installing a brand new front court

505
00:26:16,319 --> 00:26:20,119
three guys across means to the team, et cetera, et cetera.

506
00:26:20,279 --> 00:26:24,400
So it's been I mean, record wise, it's been successful.

507
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,680
I actually wish I had been playing four percent place

508
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,599
because I'd be of way more units at this point

509
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,200
in time. But you have to kind of assess the

510
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,480
playing field. There's three hundred and fifty six teams, which

511
00:26:36,519 --> 00:26:38,480
I think again is back to something you were saying

512
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:42,240
about thirty Major League Baseball teams. Three hundred and sixty something.

513
00:26:42,559 --> 00:26:44,119
I think I said three fifty six. I think it's

514
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,000
three sixty plus betible college basketball teams. It's kind of

515
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,160
crazy to think that you could have a firm grasp

516
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,359
on all of them come November tenth or eleventh, whenever

517
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:55,279
the season started.

518
00:26:55,319 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 4: So that's just been the the way I've chosen to

519
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,720
approach college basketball handicapped.

520
00:27:02,839 --> 00:27:05,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, so to me, this was this was all premeditated.

521
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,559
Speaker 1: We had four days to sort of reassess over the

522
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:12,240
Christmas break. The vast majority of my play is November December.

523
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,160
We're three percent with some four sprinkled in. H I

524
00:27:15,279 --> 00:27:17,519
kind of had in my in my head like, okay

525
00:27:18,319 --> 00:27:20,160
when you so I went too and oh last night

526
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,960
I had Dartmouth Illinois State both easy wins, and in

527
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,920
my head I said, once you have a two and

528
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,720
oh day, it's time to it's time to press the

529
00:27:26,759 --> 00:27:28,720
gas a little bit. So I've got a spot I

530
00:27:28,759 --> 00:27:31,799
love tonight and I made it a five percent play.

531
00:27:31,839 --> 00:27:33,960
And the other thing, which I don't think it's up yet,

532
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,680
but we're trying to get up today. Going forward, we

533
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,839
are going to get a We're we're going to scrap

534
00:27:38,839 --> 00:27:41,200
the weekend special and we are going to get a

535
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:46,279
standing package that's myself and Rob that's just three day

536
00:27:46,319 --> 00:27:49,640
all access at like a very discounted price. I hope

537
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,640
to have that up by this afternoon. Reason I bring

538
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,279
that up is, you know, we have to sell the

539
00:27:53,319 --> 00:27:55,920
five percent place full price even on five dollars Tuesday,

540
00:27:56,599 --> 00:28:00,680
but that three day package will we'll offer a a

541
00:28:00,839 --> 00:28:05,039
decent discount since you know, from a cost standpoint, you're

542
00:28:05,039 --> 00:28:08,119
almost halfway there if there's a five percent play. So

543
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,319
I hope to have that up at some point this afternoon.

544
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,200
The play is up right now on my page. And

545
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,640
if you're an all access client, which I think is

546
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,000
the best way to go, and we still have great

547
00:28:19,039 --> 00:28:21,880
specials for that, it is up as well. So thanks

548
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,880
for letting me chat about that for a second. I

549
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,400
wanted to point that out, and I promise we won't.

550
00:28:28,519 --> 00:28:30,720
We won't promo you to death again until the end

551
00:28:30,759 --> 00:28:33,079
of the show, where I will do it again. So

552
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,240
I'm just giving you guys a heads up get ready

553
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,000
for another promo before the end of the show.

554
00:28:37,079 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 2: Jersey in the chat.

555
00:28:38,519 --> 00:28:41,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rio Grand did not show for me last night,

556
00:28:41,359 --> 00:28:46,200
and that's too bad because Rob Bino had another great

557
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,400
call on Oklahoma State. It is to the point where

558
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,799
like you should either be buying Rob's plays or checking

559
00:28:52,799 --> 00:28:55,920
with Rob watching this show any day the Oklahoma State

560
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,799
Cowboys play because he's absolutely nailed that team and another

561
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,480
triple digit, one hundred point no sweat team total winner

562
00:29:05,319 --> 00:29:08,279
in that game last night for Rob, did you sprinkle

563
00:29:08,279 --> 00:29:09,319
that with your client plays?

564
00:29:09,359 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: Did you end up adding Oklahoma State to your card?

565
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, it actually was a client play prior to giving

566
00:29:15,759 --> 00:29:17,599
it out on the show, but we've done that so often.

567
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,160
Just another thing for folks that are watching, if you've

568
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,480
been watching the first month and a half of this show,

569
00:29:23,519 --> 00:29:26,880
you've gotten a lot of client plays released on this show.

570
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,680
I don't know that that will continue through January through March.

571
00:29:31,519 --> 00:29:34,799
Some cases yes, some cases maybe not. But yeah, that

572
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,680
was a client play last night. And again it was

573
00:29:37,759 --> 00:29:39,799
two sided. It was a fatee of b Dune Cookman.

574
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,920
It was a pro Oklahoma State offense played it. It

575
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,759
did work out for us from wire to wire.

576
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: All right, the AKNA thirteen. Let's get back to who's

577
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,160
he says now? To Creighton Butler, I think that's fair.

578
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:58,400
I referenced my conversation with my pal Joey Cheese this morning.

579
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,640
He's he's really a bit big Big East guy, and

580
00:30:02,039 --> 00:30:05,400
the bulk of our conversation was just talking about just

581
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,640
how awful this conference is outside of Yukon this year,

582
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,559
rob maybe historically bad is the Big East this year

583
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:18,319
outside of like Yukon being a legitimate national title contender.

584
00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:21,559
So the interesting thing about that is we get into

585
00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:24,519
Big East play and now you've got a lot of

586
00:30:24,559 --> 00:30:26,880
these bad teams are gonna play each other, right, so

587
00:30:27,079 --> 00:30:29,920
someone's probably going to emerge from the ashes as like

588
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,519
maybe like a fraudulent good team, And no two teams

589
00:30:35,519 --> 00:30:36,119
are more at the.

590
00:30:36,079 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 2: Front of that list than these two.

591
00:30:37,559 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: Rob Creighton, who looked just abysmal through through much of

592
00:30:43,559 --> 00:30:47,079
non conference play, comes out and then just rolls in

593
00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:49,039
their first two Big East games.

594
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 2: And then Butler, who just to me, I don't know

595
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:53,279
what it.

596
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,799
Speaker 1: Is about Butler, because they've played decent at times, but

597
00:30:55,839 --> 00:30:58,640
they just they feel like a fraud ten and three.

598
00:30:59,319 --> 00:31:01,440
They're catching five and a half on the road here.

599
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,160
It's never easy to go out to Omaha. But are

600
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,119
you buying what you saw to create in the first

601
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,039
couple of Big East games for the Blue Jays.

602
00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:12,519
Speaker 3: It's interesting, Adam, and I apologize to anybody who might

603
00:31:12,599 --> 00:31:18,119
hear the dog going crazy. There could be ups or

604
00:31:18,119 --> 00:31:20,720
somebody in the driveway, you know, crating. You have to

605
00:31:20,759 --> 00:31:25,480
make a decision here. Prior to their last three games,

606
00:31:25,759 --> 00:31:28,920
I think we had one of their games on the

607
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,559
show one day, and I don't think there was a

608
00:31:31,839 --> 00:31:36,960
positive thought on Creighton at that time. And as you mentioned,

609
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,440
it's turned around so wildly over the last three games.

610
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,559
It's almost as if maybe something was being held back,

611
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:52,000
maybe some sort of rotational minutes and when we rotate

612
00:31:52,039 --> 00:31:54,519
players in and out, and who we put together on

613
00:31:54,519 --> 00:31:56,319
the floor at the same time has been figured out.

614
00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:58,759
But you know, I think it was the Xavier game.

615
00:31:58,759 --> 00:32:00,680
As a matter of fact, I think Zay took money.

616
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,079
We were praising how good Richard Patino has brought say

617
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,960
here longer than they lose by forty one, and Creighton

618
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,720
in that game just absolutely destroy them offensively. They go

619
00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:12,960
to Marquette, they destroy Marquette with eighty four points, Utah.

620
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,039
Speaker 4: Tech ninety two more.

621
00:32:14,599 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 3: At this point, are we sold on the fact that

622
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,119
maybe Creighton offensively has.

623
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 4: Found their strida.

624
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: I know earlier we talked about the losses at Point

625
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,480
Garden Center were so tough to overcome.

626
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 4: They've lost a lot of talent.

627
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,519
Speaker 3: But the two Iowa kids taking their places, I know

628
00:32:30,599 --> 00:32:32,319
I was waiting for them to stand up and be

629
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,920
accounted for, and they kind of have lately. So Creighton,

630
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,519
it's what you believe at this point in time. Do

631
00:32:39,519 --> 00:32:42,559
you believe they just beat lousy teams and scored points

632
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:47,240
or do you believe that they're actually getting better offensively.

633
00:32:47,359 --> 00:32:49,599
I'm not sure that I'm on either side of that

634
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,079
fence at this point in time. This game might help

635
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,559
decide a little bit. Butler, obviously a really good offensive team,

636
00:32:57,119 --> 00:33:01,200
suffered a little bit lately because plays really good defense

637
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,039
and because Northwestern plays super slow.

638
00:33:03,079 --> 00:33:04,279
Speaker 4: Butler doesn't really like that.

639
00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: This game is more in their style concept, and I

640
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,599
think we could see a lot of points here, Adam.

641
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,519
I don't see anything out of either defense other than

642
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:19,400
the fact that it's a conference game and sometimes defense

643
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,640
takes hold, but so far not so in conference. For Creighton,

644
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,359
when they've had a defensive weakling, they've pummeled them. So

645
00:33:27,519 --> 00:33:30,240
I think points are the way this game is going

646
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:33,799
to go. You take a look at this total as

647
00:33:33,839 --> 00:33:35,559
I try to get the current, I'm looking at one

648
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,240
fifty six, and the market has pounded it pretty hard.

649
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,720
One fifty one and a half to one fifty six.

650
00:33:41,759 --> 00:33:45,559
Congratulations to those who got the early number. The CLV

651
00:33:45,759 --> 00:33:48,319
doesn't always pay off as as as mentioned, but it's

652
00:33:48,359 --> 00:33:50,960
it's what you're aiming to get. I still think at

653
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,720
one fifty six and a half, it's got wheel room.

654
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,519
Both of these teams could find their way to the

655
00:33:54,519 --> 00:33:59,400
eighties in this game. Neither one plays blazing fast, but

656
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,680
you're going to get up tempo in this game, Adam,

657
00:34:01,799 --> 00:34:04,640
so for me, I don't want to trust either side

658
00:34:05,519 --> 00:34:07,720
as far as just putting my eggs in the butler

659
00:34:07,759 --> 00:34:10,519
basket or the crighton basket. I'd rather put the eggs

660
00:34:10,519 --> 00:34:13,280
in both baskets and say, let's just go get some buckets,

661
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,000
get ourselves to one fifty seven.

662
00:34:15,079 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 4: I think that's.

663
00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:19,079
Speaker 3: Probably the best way for me to go. And as

664
00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:24,880
I talk, a line, movements in the morning are crazy.

665
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:30,559
I just see one random local go to one fifty

666
00:34:30,599 --> 00:34:32,599
four and a half while everybody else still sits at

667
00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:34,480
one fifty six, one fifty six and a half. So

668
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,400
if you like the over maybe you want to go

669
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,519
to that place, look through all your apps and find

670
00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:41,679
the one that's hanging a one to fifty four and

671
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:43,039
a half and go ahead and bed over.

672
00:34:47,199 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 4: Up. I got you muted again.

673
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 1: That's because my dog's bark too, so I've I've been

674
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,679
trying to get good at that, although I don't think

675
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:54,760
my mic really picks it up.

676
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:55,559
Speaker 2: But that's that's okay.

677
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:58,039
Speaker 1: They're they're I can assure you. They're up there barking

678
00:34:58,039 --> 00:35:03,679
at something. A dog that walks by a delivery truck, air.

679
00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:06,159
They bark at everything, So you know, I try to

680
00:35:06,519 --> 00:35:10,000
try to keep it muted when I can. Randall Sheffield,

681
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:11,320
thank you for the donation.

682
00:35:11,559 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: And he's got a question.

683
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,559
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna segue this a little bit and

684
00:35:14,599 --> 00:35:17,199
I'm not gonna pick this one. So we're we will

685
00:35:17,199 --> 00:35:19,880
give you two other games, so I'll give Rob a

686
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,000
chance to collect his thoughts. As I finished sort of

687
00:35:22,039 --> 00:35:25,480
touching on Butler Creyton, we will, he said, So Randall

688
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,920
says the two best over underpicks today. I think he's

689
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,159
when he says the goat, he's got to be referring

690
00:35:31,159 --> 00:35:35,000
to Rob. For sure. He is certainly the totals goat

691
00:35:35,079 --> 00:35:37,280
right there, and we'll go to him for that. Although

692
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,239
I am going to propose one, we'll each do it.

693
00:35:40,199 --> 00:35:42,079
But as far as this game is concerned, like, my

694
00:35:42,119 --> 00:35:45,159
biggest problem with Crayton is they still play like they

695
00:35:45,159 --> 00:35:49,239
have Ryankulkbrenner, but he's not there right like Elite Elite

696
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,639
Rim Protector. They still play almost the same style, except

697
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,239
he's no longer with the team, so it's like they

698
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,599
just they don't defend the rim as well as they

699
00:35:57,599 --> 00:36:00,840
did with him. And but the only thing that's concerning

700
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,119
to Butler to me is that they do kind of

701
00:36:04,159 --> 00:36:05,760
need to get to the foul line. I think to

702
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,320
like really have their full offensive success. And Creighton, and

703
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,079
they've been doing this for years, they straight up just

704
00:36:11,119 --> 00:36:14,039
aren't gonna follow you. They're just not gonna fall. They

705
00:36:14,559 --> 00:36:16,719
probably defend without following as good as any team in

706
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:21,119
the country. That being said, I can't really disagree with

707
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,800
there being points in this game. I think there's probably

708
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,760
you know, Creighton's may become pretty jump shot reliant, Rob,

709
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,199
but you know where Creighton's gonna hit their jumpers. They're

710
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,920
gonna hit their jumpers in Omaha, in that building. They've

711
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:33,719
always got a nice crowd behind them. They shoot the

712
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,079
ball that are at home. So Rob very slight lean

713
00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:41,599
toward the over here. I had one total job jotted down,

714
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:42,519
so I'll give you that.

715
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: Do you want me to go to you first?

716
00:36:44,519 --> 00:36:47,079
Speaker 1: And do you have something for Randall on a total

717
00:36:47,159 --> 00:36:48,400
maybe even your parlay leg?

718
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 2: Or do you want me to throw my game out first?

719
00:36:50,519 --> 00:36:51,039
Speaker 4: Up to you?

720
00:36:51,199 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 3: Throw your game out first and I'll find the parlay leg.

721
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 1: Love that. Okay, let's head out West because this is

722
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,440
a game that I really like. Why I was very

723
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,320
intrigued by this game. Ultimately did not get to the

724
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,159
window with it, think there could be a boatload of

725
00:37:07,199 --> 00:37:10,760
points that's gonna be Washington State in Seattle. So now

726
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,559
when Seattle plays basketball, you always got to check their

727
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:18,400
you know, they they've adopted the Yukon Villanova method where

728
00:37:18,519 --> 00:37:20,960
half of their games are on campus and very tiny

729
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,800
Red Hawk Gym, and the other half of their games

730
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,239
are in basically an NBA arena. If Seattle ever lures

731
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,119
an NBA team back to Seattle Climate Pledge Arena where

732
00:37:31,119 --> 00:37:32,400
the I think it's the Kraken.

733
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 2: I'm not a hockey guy.

734
00:37:34,039 --> 00:37:37,039
Speaker 1: I believe that's where they play, and that is essentially

735
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:42,559
where half of Seattle's home games are now. So this

736
00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,920
game's at Climate Pledge, rob I think to me that

737
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,199
that's probably a little bit of a less of a

738
00:37:49,199 --> 00:37:52,800
home court advantage. Like I would if I'm Seattle, I'd

739
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,920
much rather throw Washington State into tiny little Red Hawk gym,

740
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:01,039
like maybe fifteen hundred seat gym instead of an NBA

741
00:38:01,079 --> 00:38:04,480
arena where they're probably much more comfortable. But I think

742
00:38:04,519 --> 00:38:07,280
being at Climate Pledge, some of the games we've seen

743
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,440
there so far, I think, you know, by all accounts,

744
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,599
feels like some nice you know, shooting Siteline Seattle shot

745
00:38:13,599 --> 00:38:18,280
the ball great against Washington when they recently played him there. Seattle,

746
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,760
to me is an undervalued team as it is. I

747
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,280
kind of hoped I was kind of hoping Washington State

748
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,440
would would get the respect that they seem to get

749
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,239
over the weekend after they won. I kind of think

750
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,519
Seattle is a solid look on the side here, but

751
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,960
the number is probably right at five and a half.

752
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,519
And I go to Washington, and the reason I like

753
00:38:38,559 --> 00:38:42,039
the over rob in this one is I think Washington

754
00:38:42,079 --> 00:38:45,639
played a tough non conference schedule, played some decent defensive teams,

755
00:38:45,639 --> 00:38:48,199
and see I think you might see their offensive numbers

756
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,599
start to tick up as we come into as we

757
00:38:51,639 --> 00:38:54,880
come into conference play in the WCC, which is probably

758
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,800
overall easier than what they played than non con And

759
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,519
then you go to the Portland game over the weekend.

760
00:38:59,519 --> 00:39:01,679
I took a really tough beat there with Portland plus

761
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,480
four and a half, but it took them thirty minutes

762
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,280
to those last ten minutes they really kind of got

763
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,960
going offensively, and I just wonder if there's some carry

764
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,960
over there NBA Arena, they play a good offensive game

765
00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:17,079
and Seattle will oblige and they'll score, and that you

766
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:19,000
could get to one fifty pretty easy here in.

767
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:22,199
Speaker 3: My opinion, Yeah, that was going to be my first

768
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:24,599
question to you, Adam, is do you think that the

769
00:39:24,679 --> 00:39:27,760
number has flown too far at this point? Obviously one

770
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,599
forty one, forty seven, one forty six and a half,

771
00:39:30,639 --> 00:39:32,239
let's use that. It looks like there's a few more

772
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,360
forty six and halfs is is it too much? I

773
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,400
will say also real quick that too. If I was

774
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,320
going to defend the over, I would totally think that

775
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,920
this is a bounce back game for Seattle's offense. Now,

776
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,320
I took the beat with Seattle on Sunday night. I

777
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,280
had them against Sam Like now, they took a little

778
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,440
money and they were never in that thing offensively. I

779
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,800
don't think they scored sixty points if I'm remembering right.

780
00:39:55,840 --> 00:40:00,000
San Francisco beat them pretty soundly, held their offense down,

781
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,519
and you would think that that offense breaks at least.

782
00:40:03,519 --> 00:40:04,880
I'm the kind of guy that plays a lot of

783
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,760
bounce back stuff, So I would think that Seattle on

784
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,280
this floor bounces back Tonight's scores better, which in turn

785
00:40:11,559 --> 00:40:14,719
has Washington State score better, et cetera, et cetera. Washington

786
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,599
State has been able to hold some games under this number.

787
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,599
They haven't played one over this number since the Arizona

788
00:40:21,599 --> 00:40:24,960
State game, or excuse me, they played Mercer over and

789
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:29,559
prior to that nothing before Arizona State. But saying that,

790
00:40:30,639 --> 00:40:34,079
I just feel like maybe the Seattle Team Total even.

791
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 4: Intrigues quite a bit.

792
00:40:36,559 --> 00:40:41,519
Speaker 3: And to your point about not about playing this inclimate pledge.

793
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,840
Do they expect twelve thousands to show up to this game?

794
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,039
Is that why they move it out of Red Hawk Arena?

795
00:40:49,079 --> 00:40:50,760
I mean, I know it's in state, and maybe they're

796
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:55,119
expecting larger attendance than the whole arena can fill or

797
00:40:55,199 --> 00:40:59,639
can take to fire Code, but still I'm not so

798
00:40:59,679 --> 00:41:01,960
sure that going to get a ton of people at

799
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:02,440
this game.

800
00:41:03,119 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it makes listen. Playing the Gonzaga game there

801
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,840
makes a lot of sense. Playing the Washington game there

802
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,679
makes a lot of sense. I'm kind of with you.

803
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,159
I don't know that like Washington State does their back

804
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:14,880
do they try?

805
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,119
Speaker 2: Are they like coming in droves from Pullman for this game?

806
00:41:18,199 --> 00:41:18,679
I don't know.

807
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: I will say this though, like just to I think

808
00:41:21,519 --> 00:41:26,239
I want to revise my opinion here. I think Seattle

809
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,440
Team Total Over probably makes the most sense. You've got

810
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:30,880
a team that's going to be able to score at

811
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,079
the rim. They've done it with with relative ease so

812
00:41:34,159 --> 00:41:37,960
far this season forty eight percent from the field. Their

813
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,480
bigs are really impressive for a team in the WCC

814
00:41:40,599 --> 00:41:44,840
that's not Gonzaga or Saint Mary's. Their front court has

815
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,480
played incredibly well. They actually they outplayed a very good

816
00:41:48,599 --> 00:41:51,559
Washington front court the other day. In that game, Hans

817
00:41:51,559 --> 00:41:55,559
Steinbach was back and he got out played by Seattle's

818
00:41:55,639 --> 00:41:58,280
front court tandem, which was which was to me like

819
00:41:59,599 --> 00:42:01,920
just extremely impressive. I was on Seattle in that game

820
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,320
as a dog, and they they that wasn't a fluke.

821
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:08,000
They went in and beat Washington and also beat them

822
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,400
pretty much at their own game. It was really impressive

823
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,360
in my opinion. You know, Seattle can shoot. Both these

824
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,719
teams are gonna shoot it a little bit. I'm with you, Rob,

825
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,840
I think the best angle in this game is finding

826
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,119
a way for Seattle to bounce back from that performance

827
00:42:23,119 --> 00:42:26,280
over the weekend. So I'm either gonna lay five you

828
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,840
can still get five at some places, or I'm gonna

829
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,159
take the Seattle team total over and if you want

830
00:42:31,159 --> 00:42:33,400
the total randall, I think I would go Seattle team

831
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:37,000
total over in this game? All right, rob Bino, do

832
00:42:37,079 --> 00:42:39,159
you know where you're going with the parlay?

833
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,519
Speaker 2: And it is? Isn't another total for Randall here?

834
00:42:42,559 --> 00:42:42,760
Speaker 4: Yeah?

835
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,119
Speaker 3: I had a couple of things I looked at at him,

836
00:42:45,119 --> 00:42:47,920
and I'm gonna sometimes I do this. I just give

837
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,039
you my two or three thoughts and then give you

838
00:42:51,079 --> 00:42:53,920
what I'll use for this show. One of my initial

839
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:57,079
thoughts here was not a total just for those listening.

840
00:42:57,079 --> 00:42:59,000
And maybe we'll get to this game, I'm not sure,

841
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:03,079
but until further notice, I think there's just a fade

842
00:43:03,079 --> 00:43:05,960
on Marquette where I'm concerned no matter where they're playing,

843
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,559
who they're playing, Seaton Hall.

844
00:43:07,519 --> 00:43:09,159
Speaker 2: Rob, Let's talk about this game.

845
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about Marquette Seaton Hall, and then we'll

846
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:12,639
get to the other total.

847
00:43:12,639 --> 00:43:15,599
Speaker 2: Because this deserves a discussion, in my opinion.

848
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 4: I'll start it off.

849
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,639
Speaker 3: And for me, I think I said everything I thought

850
00:43:23,639 --> 00:43:26,360
about Seaton Hall the other day when we had their game,

851
00:43:27,639 --> 00:43:29,599
and I don't think it's anything different than what we

852
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:33,880
said all season long, right, Shean Holloway. It basically told

853
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:38,679
everybody that would listen prior to the season that this

854
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,639
group was different that this group. I think you use

855
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,159
the term buying in. If you buy into his system,

856
00:43:44,519 --> 00:43:46,840
you're a really good team. And this group he had

857
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,760
a good feel about them, and they proved it time

858
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,239
and time again. If there's one thing I know about

859
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,920
this team so far compared to Marquette, is that I'm

860
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,199
going to get forty minutes of basketball out of Seaton

861
00:43:58,199 --> 00:44:01,199
Hall whether they play the game in my backyard or

862
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,239
whether they play the game in their home gym. And

863
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,880
Marquette's just not that way, Adam. You watch Marquette and

864
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,400
they just I never want to say a team gives up,

865
00:44:12,199 --> 00:44:16,559
but they find these ways to just get behind and

866
00:44:16,639 --> 00:44:20,639
not really have any comeback in them, if you know

867
00:44:20,679 --> 00:44:22,920
what I mean. I think you described Princeton as a

868
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,039
little bit soft, but this is not the same type

869
00:44:25,039 --> 00:44:27,320
of soft. This is like the oh here we go again,

870
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,880
we're behind, we can't come back. It's not a typical

871
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:34,119
shock a smart team that's going to force you into

872
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,800
pressure turnovers where they're going to capitalize with cheap buckets.

873
00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:41,559
Seaton Hall is that team that's going to force Marquette

874
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,880
into turnovers and cheap buckets. On the other end, I

875
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,840
just I can't They could prove me wrong tonight Marquette. Obviously,

876
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:52,159
we just talked about the turnaround Creton has made inside

877
00:44:52,159 --> 00:44:54,639
of conference, but I don't know that they do it

878
00:44:54,639 --> 00:44:57,760
against this team. I just from what you said earlier

879
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,800
about the Big East being a down league this year,

880
00:45:01,679 --> 00:45:04,360
it would not surprise me at all and shouldn't surprise

881
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:07,199
anybody if Seaton Hall finds themselves in the top four

882
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,079
in the standings conference wise at the end of the season,

883
00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:12,719
because they're just one of those teams right now. They

884
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,639
have enough leadership on the floor, they have enough shot

885
00:45:16,679 --> 00:45:19,559
makers on the floor, they have enough defensive tenacity to

886
00:45:19,639 --> 00:45:21,679
win this game by a bucket in my opinion.

887
00:45:23,679 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, where I'm at the point Robe where Marquette has

888
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:33,239
reached loyal Chicago territory, where I almost like my number

889
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,960
is almost always going to show value on Marquette at

890
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:40,159
this point. But I've had there's like five teams I

891
00:45:40,159 --> 00:45:42,639
can probably count them on one hand where I straight

892
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:47,639
up just I've totally had to abandon my preseason assessment

893
00:45:47,679 --> 00:45:50,000
of the team, and it's and it's got me a

894
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:53,440
little bit confused at this part point in the season because,

895
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,519
as we know, Rob, we've talked about this a million times,

896
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:59,639
like there's non conference play, and then when conference play starts,

897
00:45:59,679 --> 00:46:02,199
especially for a team in the Big East, it really

898
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,840
is a clean slate. It's a reset, right, Like a

899
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,960
team like Marquette all is going to be forgiven if

900
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:09,960
they go out and play well in Big East play.

901
00:46:10,039 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 2: That's just just how it works now.

902
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:17,559
Speaker 1: So but the thing is, like I've seen nothing from

903
00:46:17,599 --> 00:46:21,199
Marquette that suggests that they should be close to a

904
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,199
pick in this game. Like, yeah, they're playing at home.

905
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,119
Have you seen Marquette games lately? There's been no one there.

906
00:46:26,519 --> 00:46:27,159
It's been no one.

907
00:46:27,119 --> 00:46:27,639
Speaker 4: In the building.

908
00:46:28,119 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not giving them home court edge that that

909
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,239
arena they play in, an NBA arena, it's been it's

910
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:38,239
been some games half full, huge sections open. So right now,

911
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,960
like Seaton Hall, like I'm almost in this this thing

912
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,000
where it's like I wasn't ahead of the curve on

913
00:46:44,039 --> 00:46:46,199
Seaton Hall, so now I've got to be stubborn and

914
00:46:46,199 --> 00:46:49,000
it's like I can't I can't jump on late right

915
00:46:49,079 --> 00:46:51,679
because like I still think there could be some regression

916
00:46:51,679 --> 00:46:54,800
in Seaton Hall's future, But like here, I just I

917
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,000
think the only thing I could do is just play

918
00:46:57,039 --> 00:46:59,440
Seaton Hall and continue to hope that they can you know,

919
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:02,320
defend their hails off and play well. It's a really

920
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,639
interesting matchup and it was very interesting. It's interesting to

921
00:47:05,679 --> 00:47:08,559
me that the spread was so low, Like I actually think,

922
00:47:08,559 --> 00:47:10,880
if if I'm just going off of my like what

923
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,159
I've watched and what I've seen from both these teams,

924
00:47:13,559 --> 00:47:15,239
I almost feel like Seaton Hall should be a little

925
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,280
bit bigger of a favor, similar to what they were

926
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,679
favored against Providence, right. I think they got up to

927
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:21,519
two and a half, maybe even three at one point,

928
00:47:22,599 --> 00:47:25,960
But I don't know. I just I can't do it.

929
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,639
It's a it's an interesting game. Not not going to

930
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:31,599
get my money. But Collins says he locked in Seaton

931
00:47:31,599 --> 00:47:33,360
Hall money line. Listen, I'm not going to argue with

932
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:37,559
you guys there. I can't argue with it. Wouldn't push

933
00:47:37,639 --> 00:47:42,840
back on that, Rob. I will say this, I I

934
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:46,079
meant to I probably should have clarified this, or I

935
00:47:46,519 --> 00:47:48,280
think I meant to say it and I didn't. I

936
00:47:48,599 --> 00:47:52,920
am going to play Seattle on the spread as my

937
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:54,920
my pick for the parlay. I probably should have said

938
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,679
that when we were breaking down the Seattle game. I

939
00:47:57,719 --> 00:47:59,480
will play the spread. I'll wait to see what it

940
00:47:59,519 --> 00:48:01,360
is at the end of the show. I may put

941
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,199
five minus one twenty in the parlay. I haven't decided yet,

942
00:48:04,559 --> 00:48:06,599
but I want to go back to Randall. He donated,

943
00:48:06,639 --> 00:48:09,599
and he he asked for two. And since he you know,

944
00:48:09,639 --> 00:48:11,880
he threw the donation, there were he to give him two.

945
00:48:12,079 --> 00:48:15,159
So he wants your best over underpick. And if that

946
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,320
happens to be your parlay leg, go ahead and lock

947
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:18,559
it in.

948
00:48:18,559 --> 00:48:21,280
Speaker 4: Now you have the floor, all right.

949
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 3: So here's what I will give you, Randall, And again

950
00:48:24,039 --> 00:48:28,559
we appreciate the donation. I will give you my parlay

951
00:48:28,639 --> 00:48:33,400
leg for the show. It will be a total over

952
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:37,719
at wager Talk, my top total play. You know it's

953
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,920
going to be for sale during five dollars Tuesday, So

954
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,199
I don't think the company doesn't appreciate us giving those away.

955
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,440
So I won't do that here. But I will give

956
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:47,960
you one that I'm going to play anyway as a

957
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,239
client player, one that I bet and it happens to

958
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,800
be an early start. And I played Wyoming Air Force

959
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:58,519
under one bunch of reasons here, but mostly Adam, it's

960
00:48:58,639 --> 00:49:02,760
just a a fade of the Air Force offense. Right

961
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:04,960
when you look at air Force offense, what do they

962
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,880
do they play extremely slow, average possession length in the

963
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,480
bottom ten in the nation, and they turn the ball over.

964
00:49:12,159 --> 00:49:14,480
They don't get a lot of positions because they turn

965
00:49:14,519 --> 00:49:18,400
the ball over. And again, I think we're gonna reiterate

966
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,519
this a lot this year, but I think it's worth

967
00:49:20,679 --> 00:49:23,760
saying that when we talk about turnover percentage, I think

968
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:26,320
the immediate thought that comes to people's mind is, oh,

969
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,000
turnovers points to the other side.

970
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 4: Turnovers can be just throwing.

971
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 3: The ball out of bounds, where the ball then gets

972
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:35,800
inbounded and the offense gets set. It doesn't always necessarily

973
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,599
lead into points off of turnovers, fast break, etc.

974
00:49:39,039 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 4: But air force turns.

975
00:49:40,199 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: They don't get their full amount of possessions because they

976
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,920
turn it over a bunch. They don't offensive rebound. We

977
00:49:48,079 --> 00:49:52,039
just talked about Princeton and Vermont. Don't offensive rebound, no

978
00:49:52,199 --> 00:49:58,079
second chances, slow team, turnover half their possessions, don't shoot

979
00:49:58,079 --> 00:50:01,599
it all that great other than from three, which Wyoming

980
00:50:01,639 --> 00:50:05,960
defends well, don't shoot free throws well, et cetera, et cetera, Wyoming.

981
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:08,760
And I'll say one more thing that kind of plays

982
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,800
towards Wyoming here, Adam. And in the end, when I

983
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,800
sum this up. I'll let people know that there's a

984
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,360
couple of ways to look at this. But air Force

985
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:20,840
offensively goes slow. Defensively, they allow shots very very quickly,

986
00:50:21,079 --> 00:50:23,199
and Wyoming would prefer that. Wyoming is more of a

987
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:28,440
quick paced team, but they've play defense that's more than

988
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,039
good enough to swallow air Force on the offensive end.

989
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:33,599
And I just don't know that this game's going to

990
00:50:33,639 --> 00:50:35,760
be played at breakneck where in order to get to

991
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:39,559
one forty five, where this game is lined, you kind

992
00:50:39,559 --> 00:50:44,519
of have to get to I don't know, eighty two

993
00:50:44,559 --> 00:50:48,599
even that's too high, right, seventy eight, sixty six, seventy

994
00:50:48,679 --> 00:50:50,920
nine to sixty six. I don't know that air Force

995
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,079
gets to sixty six. I don't know that Wyoming gets

996
00:50:53,079 --> 00:50:54,920
to seventy nine here. I think the one forty five

997
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,519
is too high. It open one forty six, and it's

998
00:50:57,519 --> 00:50:59,599
been bet down a little bit since and it's going

999
00:50:59,639 --> 00:51:03,280
even guys, So again we talk about shopping find the

1000
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,639
one forty fives, don't settle for the one forty four

1001
00:51:05,679 --> 00:51:07,440
and a half, although I still think it's good there,

1002
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:12,280
but it's an early game mostly a fad of the

1003
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:16,400
air Force offense here to play under the total.

1004
00:51:17,039 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 4: If you're looking at.

1005
00:51:18,119 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 3: Team totals, you could look toward air Force under sixty

1006
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:23,920
six and a half if you want it here. But

1007
00:51:24,079 --> 00:51:26,000
I want to incorporate the whole game. So for me,

1008
00:51:26,599 --> 00:51:31,920
parlay leg client play to our donor. There is going

1009
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,880
to be Wyoming air Force early start guys four o'clock East,

1010
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:36,760
one o'clock Pacific under one forty five.

1011
00:51:39,159 --> 00:51:41,679
Speaker 1: So a couple of things that's gonna and it's gonna

1012
00:51:41,679 --> 00:51:43,719
support your your argument for the under here.

1013
00:51:44,119 --> 00:51:45,360
Speaker 2: I've been to this game before.

1014
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 1: Air Force for whatever reason, they play the last couple

1015
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,719
of years, they've played their Mountain West home opener early,

1016
00:51:52,079 --> 00:51:52,920
like during the day.

1017
00:51:53,679 --> 00:51:54,559
Speaker 2: I got out there.

1018
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago and saw part of the

1019
00:51:58,079 --> 00:51:59,840
part of the reason I went out, I literally went

1020
00:51:59,880 --> 00:52:03,000
to I flew into Denver for a day. Didn't even

1021
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:04,320
get a hope. Like I flew into Denver for a

1022
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:05,880
day to go to two games and then fly home.

1023
00:52:06,079 --> 00:52:09,320
And the reason was they had like fourteen and one

1024
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,679
Utah State coming in and then I was able to

1025
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,679
go see Colorado State, New Mexico at night and it

1026
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:17,880
was just like it worked out. There was like no

1027
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,119
one there for like a Utah st eight team that

1028
00:52:21,159 --> 00:52:24,159
I think was ranked at the time. Point is there

1029
00:52:24,159 --> 00:52:26,519
will be no atmosphere for this game. It's gonna be

1030
00:52:26,559 --> 00:52:29,079
an early start. Cluone Arena will be half full.

1031
00:52:29,199 --> 00:52:29,599
Speaker 2: If that.

1032
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:36,519
Speaker 1: They Wyoming I think feeds off of that. The altitude

1033
00:52:36,519 --> 00:52:38,599
and playing at home. I think that drives some of

1034
00:52:38,599 --> 00:52:41,800
their offense. So you don't get that on the road here. Yes,

1035
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:45,480
Colorado Springs still the altitude, but I'm saying for what Wyoming,

1036
00:52:45,519 --> 00:52:47,639
I feel like they're They're definitely worse when you take

1037
00:52:47,639 --> 00:52:50,599
them out of Laramie and the.

1038
00:52:50,559 --> 00:52:51,519
Speaker 2: Offense would suffer.

1039
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,880
Speaker 1: And then the biggest thing here for me that puts

1040
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:57,000
me on your side, Rob is I just don't think

1041
00:52:57,039 --> 00:53:00,559
people understand, Like air Force was awful last year, but

1042
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,880
like Ethan Taylor individually was one of the better players

1043
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,760
in the conference. Like Ethan Ethan Taylor single handedly would

1044
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:09,840
just bail that offense out, Like they would run a

1045
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,920
possession that would do nothing, and he would he would

1046
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:16,760
have like thirty points or twenty eight points on contested

1047
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,199
jumpers like where he was just like, oh there's five

1048
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,280
seconds in the shot clock, no one's gonna do anything.

1049
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,039
Let me, let me just cook and I'm gonna go

1050
00:53:24,079 --> 00:53:26,239
hit a mid range or hit a three. It would

1051
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:29,320
single handedly keep air Force from not being like the

1052
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,320
worst team in the country this year, no Ethan Taylor

1053
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,079
this year three hundred and fifty first nationally, sixty five

1054
00:53:37,119 --> 00:53:40,960
point five points per game. They get absolutely nothing easy,

1055
00:53:41,639 --> 00:53:42,719
nothing easy.

1056
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:46,280
Speaker 2: They never get to the file line, like you will not.

1057
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:49,559
Speaker 1: You just won't see air Force get like a putback right,

1058
00:53:49,639 --> 00:53:51,960
Like they get no rebounds, they never get to the

1059
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:57,559
file line. They get nothing easy. Like where does like

1060
00:53:58,119 --> 00:54:02,559
where where does enough offense come from? Like Wyoming's a

1061
00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:05,239
twelve and a half point favorite here you so essentially

1062
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:09,480
you need just a home run road effort from Wyoming

1063
00:54:09,519 --> 00:54:12,719
to probably put this over right, because that number suggests

1064
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,280
that Wyoming is gonna do the majority of the scoring.

1065
00:54:16,159 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 2: I just don't try.

1066
00:54:17,079 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I like Sundance and Wicks as much as

1067
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,719
the next guy, right, Like I like what they're doing

1068
00:54:22,039 --> 00:54:24,719
in Wyoming. I don't trust this team to go on

1069
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:28,199
the road in a sleepy environment in an early tip

1070
00:54:28,519 --> 00:54:32,039
and just drop ninety or eighty plot.

1071
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:32,599
Speaker 2: Whatever they're gonna need.

1072
00:54:32,679 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: Rob you're so good at like kind of having like

1073
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,519
the score in your head, Like what do you think

1074
00:54:37,519 --> 00:54:40,280
Wyoming needs here to put this over because you're not

1075
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:41,280
getting it from Air Force.

1076
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 3: In mind, they need eighty, they need eighty, right, they

1077
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,199
need eighty to get to one forty six, as simple

1078
00:54:47,199 --> 00:54:50,039
as that, and that makes it a Wyoming cover. Eighty

1079
00:54:50,039 --> 00:54:52,800
to sixty six. Seventy nine to sixty six is what

1080
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:56,000
it takes to land right on the number and still

1081
00:54:56,039 --> 00:54:59,159
cover if you have Wyoming, but seventy nine to sixty six,

1082
00:54:59,199 --> 00:55:02,719
I mean I could sear we're scoring sixty one sixty two,

1083
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,000
which means Wyoming has to go into the mid eighties,

1084
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:07,159
which just seems like a lot and real quick here

1085
00:55:07,159 --> 00:55:10,440
at And just while we're talking about it, you had

1086
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:12,320
mentioned earlier that you're gonna find a lot of these

1087
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,840
teams that haven't played any true road games yet, or

1088
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,239
a minimal amount of true road games. Wyoming has only

1089
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:21,519
been on the road twice. Sam Houston Sam Houses is

1090
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,920
a much better team than Air Force, but Wyoming only

1091
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:27,519
scored seventy in that venue, seventy eight to seventy. And

1092
00:55:27,559 --> 00:55:29,920
then they go on the road to Texas Tech, which

1093
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,840
is an extremely good opponent. That game only gets to

1094
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,440
one forty eight with Texas Techa offense. So again, this

1095
00:55:36,519 --> 00:55:39,360
air Force team just it's as much of a fade

1096
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,000
on the air Force offense, and probably the matchup the

1097
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,360
Wyoming defense against the air Force offense, and then Wyoming

1098
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:50,079
just not caring after you know, another thing that haven't

1099
00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:53,159
played in ten days. It could it be Rusty is

1100
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:57,280
shooting for Wyoming. So that's gonna be our parlay leg

1101
00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,760
at least on my end, will be the Wyoming air

1102
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:01,599
Force sort at least start under one.

1103
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:07,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, and listen rob to beat for air Force to

1104
00:56:07,639 --> 00:56:11,559
beat a team like Wyoming, which is which is? I

1105
00:56:11,599 --> 00:56:14,239
still think it's a stretch to say they're a quality

1106
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,960
team inside the confines of this conference. Like Wyoming is

1107
00:56:18,039 --> 00:56:20,039
definitely not a bad basketball team. But like when I

1108
00:56:20,039 --> 00:56:23,360
think quality Mountain West teams, I think like teams like

1109
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:27,000
Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico. Right like that, I

1110
00:56:27,039 --> 00:56:29,679
don't think Wyoming. Like they're still a middling team in

1111
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:32,760
this league. They are going to need to slow the

1112
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:36,760
game down considerably, and that's Scott will do that like

1113
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:40,840
he wants to play snails pace because he knows the

1114
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:43,119
all his path to victory in a game like this

1115
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,800
is to have as few possessions as possible. So he's

1116
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,280
gonna try to take the air out of the ball.

1117
00:56:48,519 --> 00:56:50,920
There's gonna be very little juice, if any in the arena.

1118
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,679
And I mean Wyoming again, like Laramie's not far from

1119
00:56:54,679 --> 00:56:58,320
Colorado State, but it's like from a Colorado springs. I

1120
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:00,559
don't think maybe this is kind far. I think it's

1121
00:57:00,599 --> 00:57:02,840
closer to four Collins. So but even if it, even

1122
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,079
if it wasn't, Wyoming fans don't really travel like that

1123
00:57:05,119 --> 00:57:05,880
for basketball.

1124
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 2: So like I kind of see just like an ugly game.

1125
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 1: I'll I'll be shocked if Wyoming scores more than eighty

1126
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:15,039
points in this game. And if you're saying they need

1127
00:57:15,039 --> 00:57:17,199
to get eighty plus to put this over, I think

1128
00:57:17,199 --> 00:57:18,400
we've done the math here.

1129
00:57:18,599 --> 00:57:20,159
Speaker 2: I feel like you've got an under right there.

1130
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: All right, there is listen as this is always gonna be.

1131
00:57:27,679 --> 00:57:29,480
There's gonna be so much more on the slate that

1132
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:31,239
we don't get too on the show. The point is

1133
00:57:31,719 --> 00:57:33,440
for point of this show is to come and share

1134
00:57:33,519 --> 00:57:35,280
some info on some of the games.

1135
00:57:36,159 --> 00:57:38,639
Speaker 2: The games you ask about. You know, we have a

1136
00:57:38,679 --> 00:57:39,320
feature game.

1137
00:57:39,559 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna give out a best bet a lot of

1138
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:45,000
times it's a client play. We have put together a

1139
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:49,000
package that should be up by about lunchtime today. That's

1140
00:57:49,039 --> 00:57:52,519
gonna be myself and Rob. It's all of our plays

1141
00:57:52,559 --> 00:57:56,320
in college basketball. You get full analysis. I mean, I'm

1142
00:57:57,400 --> 00:57:59,920
you know, I'm writing extensively on the games I put out.

1143
00:58:00,079 --> 00:58:02,639
So if you like the show and you like the

1144
00:58:02,639 --> 00:58:04,920
info that we're giving you, there's so much more of

1145
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:05,800
that on the website.

1146
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 2: And now that they're going to put this package up

1147
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:08,320
on a daily.

1148
00:58:08,079 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 1: Basis, three days it is, it is going to take

1149
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:16,360
the cost per play down considerably. You get five percent

1150
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,960
plays every play College Whop. It's gonna be a great deal.

1151
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,920
So if you like the info and we didn't hit

1152
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:24,800
a game that you were looking for, go check out

1153
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:27,880
that package, and you know, give it a shot. I

1154
00:58:28,239 --> 00:58:30,280
think you're gonna I think you will be impressed at

1155
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,519
how much more info that's that's wasn't given out on

1156
00:58:33,559 --> 00:58:37,000
the show is actually in a three day package as

1157
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:40,199
far as today is concerned. Five bucks. It's five dollars. Tuesday.

1158
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:43,400
Rob Viino's got a totals play up and I have

1159
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,360
my first college basketball five percenter of the season. It's

1160
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,079
the spot that I love, love it so much that

1161
00:58:49,159 --> 00:58:51,440
even though it's Tuesday and I've got to I've got

1162
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,000
to sell it up against people selling plays for five dollars.

1163
00:58:54,079 --> 00:58:56,159
I said, you know what, I still it's still got

1164
00:58:56,199 --> 00:58:58,880
to be a five percenter because that that's how good

1165
00:58:58,880 --> 00:58:59,519
this spot is.

1166
00:58:59,559 --> 00:59:01,199
Speaker 2: So that's up on the site.

1167
00:59:01,239 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 1: But again, if you if you go for the combo

1168
00:59:03,119 --> 00:59:06,039
package myself and Rob, which should be up at some

1169
00:59:06,159 --> 00:59:08,320
point today, you're gonna get that and you're gonna get

1170
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:09,119
Rob's play as well.

1171
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 2: So check those out.

1172
00:59:12,079 --> 00:59:14,679
Speaker 1: Hopefully again you took something away from the show and

1173
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,440
at worst for the for the crowd, that's just like,

1174
00:59:17,559 --> 00:59:20,199
give me the picks. You don't want to hear you ramble.

1175
00:59:20,239 --> 00:59:22,760
We just want the picks. We've got two of them.

1176
00:59:23,039 --> 00:59:25,159
It's a two team parlay. I priced one of these

1177
00:59:25,199 --> 00:59:27,679
at minus one twenty, so we're gonna call it's it's

1178
00:59:27,679 --> 00:59:30,960
plus two fifty, but shop around. I'm gonna take Seattle

1179
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:33,599
minus five. That's probably the one that you're gonna have

1180
00:59:33,599 --> 00:59:35,880
to put the minus one twenty on because most books

1181
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:39,480
have minus five and a half. So Seattle minus five

1182
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:43,400
and Rob is going with Wyoming Air Force under one

1183
00:59:43,559 --> 00:59:44,159
forty five.

1184
00:59:44,519 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 2: That's a day game.

1185
00:59:45,519 --> 00:59:49,159
Speaker 1: Seattle's the degenerate special, So hopefully some entertainment throughout the

1186
00:59:49,159 --> 00:59:51,320
course of the day. Rob gets the total home and

1187
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:54,360
then we're on the RedHawks tonight to hit a show Parlay.

1188
00:59:54,519 --> 00:59:57,920
Rob Show Parlay's plus three point sixty six units.

1189
00:59:57,559 --> 00:59:58,119
Speaker 2: On the season.

1190
00:59:58,159 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: They are alive and well ever since we went to

1191
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:02,440
the two teamer, So.

1192
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 2: Let's get these home.

1193
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 1: We'll be back to celebrate New Year's Eve with you tomorrow,

1194
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,239
ten am Eastern. More full court Press. We'll see you

1195
01:00:09,239 --> 01:00:09,599
guys then