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<v Speaker 1>Eight, twenty nine to fifty five krc DE Talk station Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 1>At this time we always do the Deep Dive with

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<v Speaker 1>retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, talk military strategy, talk about

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine and Russia. Nothing to talk about today, is there, Daniel,

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back, my friend. Yeah, so little has been having

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<v Speaker 1>it up. There is just We're gonna have to work hard,

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<v Speaker 1>but I bet we can do it. I bet we can.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the we obviously are gonna be talking about this,

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<v Speaker 1>this surprising and what I perceived to be phenomenally successful

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<v Speaker 1>drone attack. I my the parallel I've drawn, and I

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<v Speaker 1>know I'm not the only one that drew it. It

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<v Speaker 1>reminded me a lot of the Israelis blowing up all

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<v Speaker 1>the members of Hamas with the cell phones and the

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<v Speaker 1>communication devices, well organized, planned in advance, and unbelievably well

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<v Speaker 1>timed and successful. We had the same kind of thing.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they from all reports, they planned this for

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<v Speaker 1>the last eighteen months. They were able to secretly shuttle

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<v Speaker 1>in these drones and these you know, prepared shelters that

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<v Speaker 1>with the roofs that popped off on remote control. The

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<v Speaker 1>drones launched in close proximity to the targets. And for

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<v Speaker 1>for what I understand is for a couple one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>dollars drone multiplied by a large factor, they were able

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<v Speaker 1>to do about seven billion dollars in damage the Russian aircraft.

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<v Speaker 1>That's pretty darn impressive. But does it mean that Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>will win the war? Headline and the Wall Street Journal

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<v Speaker 1>op edps by Bernard Henry Levy drone attack shows why

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine will win this war. And something suggests to me

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<v Speaker 1>that you're not going to agree with mister Levy on

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<v Speaker 1>that one.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh man, No, I definitely hadn't seen that one. We'll

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<v Speaker 2>definitely go look forward after we get off the air here. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>but that is that is sheer fantasy. But let's let's

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<v Speaker 2>first of all focus on what happened, because you said

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<v Speaker 2>and by all accounts, and I'm certainly in agreement, this

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<v Speaker 2>was a spectacularly executed operation on its own right because

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<v Speaker 2>it was done for such a long period of time,

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<v Speaker 2>It was done with the cooperation of men any at

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<v Speaker 2>least Sopar. It's been reported actual Russian citizens as well,

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<v Speaker 2>people they recruited, et cetera, got to turn and to

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<v Speaker 2>help Russia inside.

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<v Speaker 1>Knowing what they were doing uh, and.

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<v Speaker 2>Then to keep it all secret for that long, and

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<v Speaker 2>then to have it on multiple locations hence the name

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<v Speaker 2>spider web because it was all these different links to

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<v Speaker 2>get together, and then to have the sophistication, the technological

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<v Speaker 2>savvy to to be able to get through any kind

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<v Speaker 2>of attempt to block signals, for example from the Russian side,

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<v Speaker 2>to have it without being intercepted so that Russia didn't

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<v Speaker 2>know what was going on. All that together was just

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<v Speaker 2>really really successful. But then we have to get to

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<v Speaker 2>the to the consequence of it, and other than being

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<v Speaker 2>a real uh, you know, bloody eye or black eye

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<v Speaker 2>for for Putin, it's not going to have any impact

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<v Speaker 2>on the front line and the war that's going on

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<v Speaker 2>were By the way, overnight Russia also continues to have

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<v Speaker 2>significant progress going forward in the Sumi region. No one

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<v Speaker 2>wants to talk about that on the Ukraine side because

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<v Speaker 2>they want to bask in the glory of this. But

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<v Speaker 2>the bottom line is what has this gain you? And

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<v Speaker 2>so far I've seen that it has angered the Russian side.

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<v Speaker 2>It has made more of the senior people in the Kremlin.

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<v Speaker 2>And by the way, there's lots of reports that there

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<v Speaker 2>is a lot of debate within the upper echelon of

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<v Speaker 2>the Russian Kremlin and their leadership that they want to

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<v Speaker 2>respond much much stronger than Putin does. Putin still apparently

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<v Speaker 2>is looking for some kind of you know, non provocative

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<v Speaker 2>it's not going to escalate better phrase, it's not going

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<v Speaker 2>to escalate it and get the NATO drawn in. But

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<v Speaker 2>it's also strong enough. And apparently they haven't come to

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<v Speaker 2>a conclusion because they haven't said almost anything about it.

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<v Speaker 2>But yeah, it ain't gonna win the war for the

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine side, no matter what anybody wants.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I actually fully expected an almost immediate retaliation. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if you read the same thing I've read

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<v Speaker 1>where you get your sources, but they had a massed

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<v Speaker 1>about fifty thousand additional troops on the border there the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians did. I figured that they would just be unlea

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<v Speaker 1>east into Ukraine and add to the already established zones

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<v Speaker 1>that Russia is controlling right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, what we've seen though, is that Russia

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<v Speaker 2>is very strategically minded and patient, and they have been

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<v Speaker 2>from the outset and they have done things that issue

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<v Speaker 2>near term setbacks in order to get something big later on.

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<v Speaker 2>For example, in the Hiirson area, they willingly withdrew all

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<v Speaker 2>their forces across the Dnepa River and surrendered all that

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<v Speaker 2>territory to the Ukraine side because they calculated that they

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't hold it, knowing that it would be a huge

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<v Speaker 2>media victory for the other side and they would get

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<v Speaker 2>the territory, but it would preserve combat power for later on,

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<v Speaker 2>and it played out that way. Is that helped Russia

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<v Speaker 2>win the Battle of Bakm later on. This place here,

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<v Speaker 2>those troops have been there already. They're already part of

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<v Speaker 2>this northern offensive that Russia has probably already started. So

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<v Speaker 2>they're not gonna, you know, rush into a new fight here.

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<v Speaker 2>It's different than the slow pace they have because they

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<v Speaker 2>want to preserve their troops and maximize the firepower to

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<v Speaker 2>inflict casualties on the Ukraine side. So they're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to change that. The only thing that might come is

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<v Speaker 2>maybe some big spectacular missile strikes into strategic targets where

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<v Speaker 2>they haven't hit before, maybe in a Russnic missile, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>something that literally no one can stop at this point.

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<v Speaker 2>But there may not be any of that either. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>one of Putin's former advisors was went on the air

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<v Speaker 2>almost immediately on a Western show and said that he

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<v Speaker 2>didn't think there would be any because he said, look,

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<v Speaker 2>this is like the one hundredth time a Russian airbase

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<v Speaker 2>has been attacked in the last two years. It's just

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<v Speaker 2>the first time it's had this kind of success. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's embarrassment, but it's not going to keep the take

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<v Speaker 2>their eye off the ball of what they're doing. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>that could be how it's going to work out.

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<v Speaker 1>The broader implications of the success of this attack kind

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<v Speaker 1>of have me worried. First off, I guess we have

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<v Speaker 1>to view this through the lens of how this illustrates

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<v Speaker 1>the changing dynamic of warfare, much in the same way

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<v Speaker 1>usage of drone over the past military conflicts we've been

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<v Speaker 1>in since drones have been used sort of reduce the

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<v Speaker 1>need for manned aircraft. I mean, if you can send

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<v Speaker 1>a million dollar drone in with no man in it

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<v Speaker 1>and it can successfully complete a bombing operation, that's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot better use of your resources than sending in a

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<v Speaker 1>multi billion dollar F thirty five that's got a pilot

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<v Speaker 1>in it that you got to worry about saving their lives.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's one component. But this has me a little

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<v Speaker 1>more worried from a domestic standpoint, A lot of concerns

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<v Speaker 1>about China grabbing up all this land around our military bases.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think it will be pretty damn easy in

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<v Speaker 1>a country is free and as wide as our country

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<v Speaker 1>for them to oh, maybe get a whole giant drone

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<v Speaker 1>fleet and launch it whenever the hell they damn well please,

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<v Speaker 1>like for example, when the lights go out the day

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<v Speaker 1>they invade Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, it's not just China. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 2>you don't even have to own any land, as Russia

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<v Speaker 2>just demonstrated. You just take point truck and it just nick.

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<v Speaker 2>Russia is a lot more restrictive than the US in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of movement, though it's actually much more open than

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<v Speaker 2>people think, and you saw the results of it there.

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<v Speaker 2>But of course here you can literally drive anywhere in

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<v Speaker 2>our country. And I actually worry not as much about China,

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<v Speaker 2>though that certainly is a big one on the front

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<v Speaker 2>of the list. But you know, something like we talk

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<v Speaker 2>about getting into a conflict with the cartails in Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>In Mexico, we talked about sending in the special forces,

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<v Speaker 2>like there's never going to be any consequence. But now

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<v Speaker 2>we see that the opportunity here is so easy to

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<v Speaker 2>do in so low cost. I fear that others may

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<v Speaker 2>see what happened here and draw obvious conclusions. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think that it's kind of like the genies out of

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<v Speaker 2>the bottle here, and man, we better be figured out

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<v Speaker 2>some kind of defense against this stuff as best we

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<v Speaker 2>can right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we saw that nut job throw a milotov cocktails.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously for political reasons he hates the Jews and wants

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<v Speaker 1>to kill all of them or something Looney Tunes like that.

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<v Speaker 1>But also in the context of comments from the border

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<v Speaker 1>security folks about the two million in god aways that

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<v Speaker 1>we had no interaction. We don't know who they are,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't know what they represent. Are they political? Are

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<v Speaker 1>they perhaps cells that have formed and are just waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for the orders to launch any particular given attack. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a real problem for our country in a going

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<v Speaker 1>forward basis.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, it always That's one of the reasons I've always

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<v Speaker 2>been such an advocate, no matter who's in the White House,

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<v Speaker 2>that we need to have our secure borders. I've always

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<v Speaker 2>said to whatever your immigration policy is, y'all figure that out,

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<v Speaker 2>and whatever the Congress and the system of governments or

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<v Speaker 2>whatever we agree to. Whether everybody likes it or not,

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<v Speaker 2>and they definitely won't, it doesn't matter. But whatever the

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<v Speaker 2>law is, abide by it and enforce it so that

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<v Speaker 2>we keep ourselves safe, so that whatever the decisions are,

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<v Speaker 2>we don't get anybody in like you're talking now, where

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<v Speaker 2>we don't even know who they are. And that's just

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<v Speaker 2>an existing and a prevailing vulnerability of our country that

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<v Speaker 2>we still have to some degree to this day.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, and let's turn briefly back to Ukraine for

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<v Speaker 1>part Company today, Daniel Davis. They still have a shortage

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<v Speaker 1>of manpower that has not solved. The problem hasn't been

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<v Speaker 1>solved in the week since we've talked last week. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's the ongoing issue for Ukraine. I mean, successful drone

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<v Speaker 1>strikes or not, they've got to keep guys on the

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<v Speaker 1>front lines, and they have to have the hardware and

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<v Speaker 1>equipment to be able to fight with the remaining people

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<v Speaker 1>they have.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, and that's why the headline like the one

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<v Speaker 2>you sided in the Wall Street Journal is embarrassing and

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<v Speaker 2>just humiliating because it doesn't even talk about what's actually

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<v Speaker 2>going on the front line, which I mentioned in the

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<v Speaker 2>Sumi area, it's continuing to going forward. Another point to

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<v Speaker 2>make on this big strike here is that the consequence

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<v Speaker 2>of that also have to be considered. In Russia, a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of them are calling this their pearl harbor moment,

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, they got this strike and whatever. And

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<v Speaker 2>then there's in the news I saw this morning before

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<v Speaker 2>coming on your show is one of the writers in

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<v Speaker 2>one of the op eds of a military review in

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<v Speaker 2>Russia said, this has been our pearl harbor. Now it's

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<v Speaker 2>time for our midway. So they do want some kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a big strike in return. And as we've pointed

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<v Speaker 2>out on your show many times, and you just address here,

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<v Speaker 2>the man power in balance alone, plus all the weapons,

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<v Speaker 2>ammunition and everything else is still irrevocably and decisively on

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<v Speaker 2>the Russian side. So these formations on the front are

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<v Speaker 2>going to continue on, no matter what happened five thousand

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<v Speaker 2>kilometers from the front.

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<v Speaker 1>Any hope of them sitting down, it sounds like every

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<v Speaker 1>time we hear that they're going to sit down and

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<v Speaker 1>have some sort of talk to resolve this, it never

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<v Speaker 1>does happen or nothing becomes of it. Russia can tell.

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<v Speaker 2>You, you know, Brian, one of the most puzzling and

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<v Speaker 2>maddening things about this situation is they had the second

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<v Speaker 2>face to face meeting between Russia and Ukraine yesterday and

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<v Speaker 2>his denbul Both sides entered by giving positions that were

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<v Speaker 2>further apart than they were the previous time that they

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<v Speaker 2>both knew the other side would categorically reject. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>exactly the way it turned out, because in the bottom

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<v Speaker 2>line is neither side wants to negotiated settlement. And that

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<v Speaker 2>sounds odd because you would think that the Ukraine's side

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<v Speaker 2>does because they claim they do. The Russian they claim

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<v Speaker 2>they do. But you see that the Russians is like saying, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>if you agree to all these draconian terms, right, we'll

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<v Speaker 2>stop fighting today, which means they have to withdraw from

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<v Speaker 2>their the territories where they still have some troops, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, de militarization, denoxification, all these things they won't

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<v Speaker 2>do or we said, we'll just keep fighting. And the Nabenzia,

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<v Speaker 2>their Uman Security Council UN ambassador specifically said that at

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<v Speaker 2>the UN Security Council a couple of days ago. But

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<v Speaker 2>on the Ukraine side, you're like, wait a minute, you

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<v Speaker 2>don't have anything to gain by this. If the negotiations fail,

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<v Speaker 2>the offensive will continue on. And yet they sabotage this

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<v Speaker 2>so that there was no way the Russians would agree

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<v Speaker 2>to it. And so we have to really ask, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's an open question, what is the Ukraine in the

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<v Speaker 2>Western European side trying to get done here?

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<v Speaker 1>Uh? A real quick question, because I know we're out

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<v Speaker 1>of time. If let's say, you know, uh, a miracle

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<v Speaker 1>occurred in Ukraine said okay, okay, okay, uh, we'll agree

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<v Speaker 1>to demilitarize. Who would preside over, who would do the

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<v Speaker 1>oversight that would provide sufficient you know, satisfaction for the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians that they did in fact e militari? Is that

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<v Speaker 1>a UN function? Is that an ATO function is a

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<v Speaker 1>function of the Russians looking over it? I guess I'm

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<v Speaker 1>just curious to how that would work functionally.

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<v Speaker 2>Russia actually has addressed part of that question by saying

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<v Speaker 2>it needs to be neutral observers, not NATO, not Russia,

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<v Speaker 2>but like the OSSEE or even other entities from like

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<v Speaker 2>maybe the Global South or something like that. So they

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<v Speaker 2>actually have some working level issue on that. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>not gonna be US and NATO. It's not gonna be

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Russia and Belarus, et cetera. But I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I hope we get to the point to where we

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<v Speaker 2>have to worry about that, that the fighting stops.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually doesn't sound like we're e anywhere near it right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis. Good to Deve Die with Daniel Davis. Search

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<v Speaker 1>for the podcast where if you get it, and always

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<v Speaker 1>tune in Tuesday at eight thirty for another great discussion

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<v Speaker 1>my friend. Until next Tuesday, have a great week. Always

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<v Speaker 1>my pleasure. See you next week, Brough, Take care brother.

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<v Speaker 1>Eight forty one fifty five KC detalk station stick around.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna be talking with Steve from you know Santillation

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<v Speaker 1>coming up.