WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.560 --> 00:00:03.560 You are summer ice chests of information. 2 00:00:03.720 --> 00:00:05.200 It's essential to know what's going. 3 00:00:05.080 --> 00:00:08.240 On inside KARC the talk station. 4 00:00:11.359 --> 00:00:13.880 Eight o five the fifty five krceeding talk station. 5 00:00:14.000 --> 00:00:17.839 Happy Monday by the time as right here, always looking 6 00:00:17.839 --> 00:00:19.519 forward to this segment because we get to hear from 7 00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:22.359 all Worth Financials Brian James talk Money Matters. You call 8 00:00:22.399 --> 00:00:24.920 it Money Monday with Brian James. Welcome back, Brian Hope. 9 00:00:24.920 --> 00:00:25.760 You had a nice weekend. 10 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:29.320 Good morning, nice hot, sweaty weekend, as we've become used 11 00:00:29.320 --> 00:00:30.480 to over the past several weeks. 12 00:00:30.480 --> 00:00:32.880 Well, I know my grass is as high as an 13 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.359 elephant's eye. Coming back to Oklahoma. The music, well, I 14 00:00:36.359 --> 00:00:39.640 gotta get the grass cut and keeps raining on me. Anyhow, 15 00:00:40.159 --> 00:00:43.000 moving away from that and talk about matters financial. Oh, now, 16 00:00:43.000 --> 00:00:47.159 I know Trump's been complaining about the FED chair. Uh, 17 00:00:47.280 --> 00:00:51.200 he wants interest rates lower. Powell says no, obviously hasn't 18 00:00:51.200 --> 00:00:54.679 lowered the interest rates. Jerome Powell currently head of the Fed. Now, 19 00:00:55.039 --> 00:00:57.640 Trump has already said he wouldn't fire Powell. Powell said 20 00:00:57.640 --> 00:01:00.560 he'd never leave the job absent die. So we have 21 00:01:00.719 --> 00:01:02.719 until May. I guess there's going to be a natural 22 00:01:02.759 --> 00:01:04.560 changing in of the guard next May. 23 00:01:05.159 --> 00:01:07.200 Yeah, May have twenty twenty six. And let's not forget 24 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:10.840 that Trump himself did a point this particular FED shair, 25 00:01:10.879 --> 00:01:14.000 which is kind of funny. He was a comment from 26 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:16.799 President Trump the other day last week sometime that he 27 00:01:16.920 --> 00:01:19.519 was surprised when he was appointed. Well the words came 28 00:01:19.519 --> 00:01:21.799 out of your mouth. So yeah, not sure exactly where 29 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:24.920 that surprise comes from, but anyhow, Yeah, so he's he's 30 00:01:24.920 --> 00:01:27.879 pushing for pushing for a replacement. Trump says he will 31 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:30.680 not remove him that. Well, we'll see if that, if 32 00:01:30.719 --> 00:01:32.760 that actually sticks, but that doesn't mean we're not gonna 33 00:01:32.760 --> 00:01:35.239 go ahead and have the conversation about who might replace 34 00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:37.120 in May of twenty six when this current term is up. 35 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:39.079 Right, he did quite a few names being thrown around, 36 00:01:39.120 --> 00:01:41.079 and Scott be Sent for example, is one of them. 37 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:43.239 But he's happy where he is as the Treasury secretary, 38 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:45.200 so he's already said no, I don't want the job. 39 00:01:45.239 --> 00:01:47.280 But beyond that, we could talk about some of the 40 00:01:47.280 --> 00:01:49.439 other names they were thrown around. But let's as a 41 00:01:49.480 --> 00:01:55.280 fundamental thing, if Powell was out, whether he got fired 42 00:01:55.359 --> 00:01:59.000 or he died or he quit, just because you name 43 00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:00.599 a new chairman of the FED doesn't mean, they're going 44 00:02:00.640 --> 00:02:02.840 to lower interest rates, does it right? 45 00:02:02.920 --> 00:02:07.280 And the the problem is that President Trump super super 46 00:02:07.319 --> 00:02:09.800 super once interest rates to come down, and he has 47 00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:12.120 he said that all through his first term, and he 48 00:02:12.159 --> 00:02:13.919 said that all through the campaign, and of course he's 49 00:02:13.919 --> 00:02:16.879 still trumpeting those ideas. Those are that's obviously an extremely 50 00:02:16.919 --> 00:02:20.039 business friendly proposition. If rates are lower, then it's cheaper 51 00:02:20.039 --> 00:02:22.159 to do business, and we would get an immediate pop 52 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:24.599 in the stock market, a little bit, possibly a little 53 00:02:24.599 --> 00:02:27.039 bit of a sugar high. Because the concern behind that, 54 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:29.439 and the reason we don't necessarily want to do this, 55 00:02:29.520 --> 00:02:32.919 is because that can quickly trigger inflation, which we've just spent, however, 56 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:36.039 many years trying to tamp down from from the COVID process. 57 00:02:36.080 --> 00:02:39.280 So at this point, the concern is that if he 58 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:41.560 if he is able to get what he wants by 59 00:02:41.560 --> 00:02:44.840 simply putting a puppet or a mouthpiece in there, then 60 00:02:44.960 --> 00:02:47.919 that the long term chaos that could come out of 61 00:02:47.919 --> 00:02:51.759 that would be pretty dangerous in terms of overall inflation spikes. Plus, 62 00:02:51.800 --> 00:02:56.080 the FED has always been famously independent politically. Yeah, that's 63 00:02:56.120 --> 00:02:57.960 one of the one of the departments that really has 64 00:02:58.039 --> 00:03:00.240 not been impacted by politics so much. There is a 65 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:02.759 little bit of history there. Nixon got involved in it, 66 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:05.879 and it did create some chaos and inflation and played 67 00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:08.400 a role in the stagflation era of the seventies. So 68 00:03:08.439 --> 00:03:11.039 there is precedent we can look at to see what 69 00:03:11.080 --> 00:03:14.080 happens when we get too much political control. But you know, 70 00:03:14.400 --> 00:03:18.280 historically that area has stayed relatively free of political interference. 71 00:03:18.560 --> 00:03:23.000 Well, I recall Carter screaming at yelling about Paul Vulkar 72 00:03:23.039 --> 00:03:25.120 because he one of the interest rates lowered back when 73 00:03:25.159 --> 00:03:26.919 Vulkar was head of the chair ahead of the FED, 74 00:03:26.960 --> 00:03:31.520 and Vulker refused to relent. So the other way on it. Yeah, exactly, 75 00:03:31.560 --> 00:03:34.039 We've been down this road before. So I appreciate the 76 00:03:34.080 --> 00:03:37.919 independence of the FED. Now, how independent is the FED 77 00:03:38.039 --> 00:03:41.479 chair in decision making because there are all kinds of 78 00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:43.800 you know, governing board members, they all have a say 79 00:03:43.800 --> 00:03:47.240 in it. Or is the chairman exclusively responsible for making 80 00:03:47.240 --> 00:03:47.800 the decision? 81 00:03:48.439 --> 00:03:50.960 Well, the buck stops with the chairman, but of course 82 00:03:50.960 --> 00:03:53.319 there's a lot of input from the various FED governors 83 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:56.840 and who are regional as well as the board itself. 84 00:03:56.960 --> 00:03:58.960 And matter of fact, Trump is trying to stay ahead 85 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:01.800 of that too as well by saying not only should 86 00:04:02.199 --> 00:04:05.280 should should chair Powell step down, he should also remove 87 00:04:05.360 --> 00:04:07.960 himself from the board so that we don't have a 88 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:11.520 situation of a shadow chair. So there's I'm sorry there 89 00:04:11.520 --> 00:04:13.439 was Scott percent that said that, but regardless, though, the 90 00:04:13.479 --> 00:04:15.759 whole point is they want Jerome Powell's opinion out of 91 00:04:15.800 --> 00:04:19.240 the mix entirely. So yes, there is a lot of input, 92 00:04:19.319 --> 00:04:21.839 but at the end of the day, the decision rests 93 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:22.399 with the chair. 94 00:04:22.720 --> 00:04:26.720 Well, this is a direct impact on treasury bills, right, Oh, 95 00:04:26.759 --> 00:04:29.680 of course, yeah, I mean treasury builded. The Fed will 96 00:04:29.720 --> 00:04:30.319 set rates. 97 00:04:30.360 --> 00:04:32.160 We know how that works, right, They'll come out and 98 00:04:32.199 --> 00:04:33.759 they say rates go up, We're going to up a 99 00:04:33.839 --> 00:04:36.079 quarter percent, up a half percent, down, a quarter percent, whatever. 100 00:04:36.360 --> 00:04:39.560 But the market has an impact too, and because the 101 00:04:39.839 --> 00:04:42.360 market will, of course try to anticipate and I'm referring 102 00:04:42.360 --> 00:04:44.680 to the bond market here, the bond market will try 103 00:04:44.720 --> 00:04:47.120 to anticipate what the moves are going to be. And 104 00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:49.399 so for example, you know, one of the popular things 105 00:04:49.439 --> 00:04:51.720 that people want to pay attention to this for is 106 00:04:51.759 --> 00:04:53.959 because maybe you're in a situation where you bought a 107 00:04:53.959 --> 00:04:56.879 house in the last three four years and you're paying six, seven, 108 00:04:56.920 --> 00:04:59.720 maybe even eight percent on a thirty year mortgage. Obviously, 109 00:04:59.800 --> 00:05:04.639 that's something that's not the norm. We're happier when we're 110 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:06.279 in the three to four percent range there. I'm not 111 00:05:06.279 --> 00:05:07.759 sure we're all low way down there again, but the 112 00:05:07.759 --> 00:05:09.839 lower the better. But you want to look at the 113 00:05:09.920 --> 00:05:15.959 ten year treasury that's what most mortgage mortgage rates are tracking. 114 00:05:16.000 --> 00:05:17.839 So the Federal Reserve will make the moves too, but 115 00:05:17.879 --> 00:05:21.160 the market will also anticipate which way bonds are going 116 00:05:21.240 --> 00:05:24.120 to go, and that itself can have impact on what 117 00:05:24.240 --> 00:05:25.560 where interstrates are going to go. 118 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:28.199 But you got to look past the veneer of a 119 00:05:28.240 --> 00:05:32.079 lower mortgage rate, don't you, Because you mentioned inflation being impacted. 120 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:34.879 When the rates come down, you worry about inflation. There 121 00:05:34.920 --> 00:05:37.680 could be a spike and business activity gets generated, et cetera. 122 00:05:37.759 --> 00:05:39.839 But people keep talking about, gosh, we want the interest 123 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:42.560 rates lower because I want a lower interest rate from 124 00:05:42.560 --> 00:05:44.519 my home. Now, that's all well and good if you're 125 00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:47.360 going to refinance and stay where you are, but that's 126 00:05:47.399 --> 00:05:49.680 not going to increase the stock of housing. In fact, 127 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:52.680 we can you consider inflation the lower it is the 128 00:05:52.800 --> 00:05:55.680 charge to borrow money, the rate at which you borrow. 129 00:05:56.079 --> 00:05:59.040 It seems like the demand would go up, putting upward 130 00:05:59.079 --> 00:06:02.519 pressure on the price of a home. Yes, absolutely, and 131 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:05.879 we haven't had that much downward Prince right. All stories 132 00:06:05.920 --> 00:06:08.680 we hear kind of anecdotal stories about how there's less activity, 133 00:06:08.720 --> 00:06:10.680 fewer housing starts, that kind of thing, but the prices 134 00:06:10.720 --> 00:06:13.680 have not yet dropped. That's how strong the demand has been. 135 00:06:13.759 --> 00:06:16.360 So yes, you're absolutely right. I think I think it 136 00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:19.079 depends on what situation you're in. If you already bought 137 00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:21.800 a house, then you really really want a rate cut 138 00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:23.920 so you can refinance, because you heard all the awesome 139 00:06:23.959 --> 00:06:26.600 stories when you were younger of the prior fifteen twenty, 140 00:06:27.079 --> 00:06:30.279 when refinancing was something you did every six months, you know, 141 00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:31.439 on date night, you. 142 00:06:31.399 --> 00:06:33.000 Know, go out for dinner after work. It was just 143 00:06:33.079 --> 00:06:35.120 a regular routine. But on the other hand, if you 144 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:37.279 are shopping for a house, you may not want that. 145 00:06:37.319 --> 00:06:40.040 You arguably might even want rates to tick up higher, 146 00:06:40.079 --> 00:06:42.560 so it'll finally break the back of housing demand and 147 00:06:42.600 --> 00:06:44.639 things will pull back a little bit. Now, all of 148 00:06:44.639 --> 00:06:46.680 those are a very short term in nature, and it 149 00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:49.439 really just depends on what your own individual situation is. 150 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.800 But these are all things. Unfortunately, we will not have 151 00:06:52.839 --> 00:06:55.000 a perfect situation somebody's going to end up on the 152 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:55.519 short end. 153 00:06:55.399 --> 00:06:58.000 Of the stick clearly. Now moving away from just the 154 00:06:58.040 --> 00:07:01.480 housing industry because you know the obviously that's governed purely 155 00:07:01.480 --> 00:07:04.199 by supply and demand. If there's not enough houses out there, 156 00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:05.839 the price is going to go up. It's the greatest 157 00:07:05.839 --> 00:07:09.439 illustration you can have of that. What about other areas 158 00:07:09.560 --> 00:07:13.600 of the how it would impact from an inflationary standpoint, 159 00:07:13.639 --> 00:07:16.480 other areas of businesses generally speaking, Why is it that 160 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:19.720 a lower interest rate we would have an inflationary reaction 161 00:07:20.040 --> 00:07:21.519 Outside of the housing market. 162 00:07:21.439 --> 00:07:23.800 It generates a lot more hats being thrown in the ring. 163 00:07:23.920 --> 00:07:26.439 So in other words, if rates are low, that means 164 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:29.240 I can get money for cheaper than I could before. 165 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:32.839 And the best type of money to invest with is 166 00:07:32.879 --> 00:07:35.079 somebody else's. So that's where you hear about all these 167 00:07:35.120 --> 00:07:39.040 things about companies borrowing to invest or or you know, 168 00:07:39.079 --> 00:07:43.879 the fabulously wealthy set borrows against their holdings and simply 169 00:07:43.879 --> 00:07:47.480 wants to pay down the debt rather than liquidate those 170 00:07:47.519 --> 00:07:49.360 actual holdings to pay for their bills. And this is 171 00:07:49.600 --> 00:07:51.759 something the average person gets to do. But that is 172 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:54.079 we've set up a system in this country where that 173 00:07:54.160 --> 00:07:56.279 is a very profitable thing to be able to take 174 00:07:56.279 --> 00:07:59.160 advantage of. So that generates a lot more activity, and 175 00:07:59.399 --> 00:08:02.399 it it generates just people going out and doing things 176 00:08:02.399 --> 00:08:04.040 and buying more products and so on and so forth 177 00:08:04.079 --> 00:08:07.079 because they're cheap, especially now, because we will when that happens, Brian, 178 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:10.199 we will convince ourselves of scarcity. These rates that aren't 179 00:08:10.199 --> 00:08:12.600 going to stay low forever. I better do things right now. 180 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:15.800 We saw this with products and imports in the first 181 00:08:15.879 --> 00:08:18.000 quarter of the year, where we saw a big spike 182 00:08:18.040 --> 00:08:23.000 in imports in anticipation of the character coming. Yeah, so 183 00:08:23.120 --> 00:08:25.639 anticipation will itself drive prices up. 184 00:08:25.879 --> 00:08:28.519 Well, you know, you've got an opportunity to borrow for less. 185 00:08:28.560 --> 00:08:31.560 Of course you're gonna jump on that. That makes perfect sense. Now, 186 00:08:31.639 --> 00:08:33.120 let me just get a comment or two from you 187 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:35.759 on this comical notion that you need a what is it, 188 00:08:35.759 --> 00:08:41.240 two and a half billion dollar Reserve office upgrade? Yeah? 189 00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:46.600 What the hell this one? It really feels like this 190 00:08:46.679 --> 00:08:50.960 is one that you know, the government is operating out 191 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:52.720 of buildings at one hundred and fifty two hundred years old, 192 00:08:52.759 --> 00:08:55.519 so I'm sure they need upgrades and things here and there. 193 00:08:55.519 --> 00:08:57.159 But yeah, two and a half billion dollars low on 194 00:08:57.159 --> 00:09:00.639 the price the end. However, Jer Powell, it hasn't ever 195 00:09:00.679 --> 00:09:04.519 been someone who is a ostentatious, look at me type 196 00:09:04.519 --> 00:09:06.759 of a person. So I can't I can't simply lay 197 00:09:06.759 --> 00:09:09.039 the blame at his feet to say that this was 198 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:11.360 a mistake from the beginning. It does really seem to 199 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:14.080 be what's what is anything? Go find anything that we 200 00:09:14.120 --> 00:09:16.919 can point at him and point out the weakness of him. 201 00:09:16.919 --> 00:09:18.480 And I'm speaking of you know, those who are on 202 00:09:18.519 --> 00:09:20.559 the warpath to get rid of him. Sure, if that's 203 00:09:20.600 --> 00:09:22.679 what they came up with, I'm feeling a little more 204 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:24.039 confident about Chair Powell. 205 00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:25.720 No, and I'll agree with you all day long on 206 00:09:25.759 --> 00:09:29.600 that conclusion. And I don't I personally. I know Trump's 207 00:09:29.600 --> 00:09:31.720 been pointing the finger of Powell over this renovation cost, 208 00:09:31.799 --> 00:09:36.039 but to me, it exists beyond who's responsible for making 209 00:09:36.080 --> 00:09:43.039 the decision two and a half billion dollars. It's I know, 210 00:09:43.320 --> 00:09:45.360 you can build a brand new Bengals stadium for that 211 00:09:45.440 --> 00:09:46.159 kind of money. 212 00:09:46.519 --> 00:09:51.240 Yeah, absolutely, And there seems to be obviously, we need 213 00:09:51.360 --> 00:09:53.759 a lot more context behind this to understand exactly where 214 00:09:53.799 --> 00:09:57.960 that face. I cannot imagine Chair Powell spends a lot 215 00:09:57.960 --> 00:10:00.840 of time looking at marble samples. With the job that 216 00:10:00.879 --> 00:10:03.000 he has, I'm pretty sure there are people to do this, 217 00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:04.840 and I have a feeling that kind of came out 218 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:06.360 of left field when he realized he was going to 219 00:10:06.440 --> 00:10:08.279 have to have a bigger opinion on it and be 220 00:10:08.320 --> 00:10:09.519 more vocal than than he had. 221 00:10:09.679 --> 00:10:12.679 Well, you know, you'd expect some measure of fiscal responsibility 222 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:14.600 from the head of the FED. That's all I'm saying. 223 00:10:14.639 --> 00:10:17.279 You know that's fair, that's a fair assessment. I just 224 00:10:17.399 --> 00:10:19.360 yell out loud. I'm putting my foot down. There's no 225 00:10:19.399 --> 00:10:22.440 way of office renovations should ever cost this much. You're 226 00:10:22.440 --> 00:10:25.240 going to get lesser expensive chairs. Live with it. It's 227 00:10:25.279 --> 00:10:28.000 say fifteen right now, more with Brian James speaking of 228 00:10:28.120 --> 00:10:32.480 Tariff's solid earnings report masking tariff volatility. That's subject coming 229 00:10:32.519 --> 00:10:34.159 up next. I hope you can stick around. 230 00:10:34.159 --> 00:10:40.879 Fifty five KRC the talk station. How here's a Channel 231 00:10:40.919 --> 00:10:42.960 nine first morning. What the forecast. There's a floatwatch going 232 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:44.879 on out there. It ends at. 233 00:10:44.720 --> 00:10:47.120 Eleven this morning. Any rain in the area of the 234 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:50.639 predictable end around two pm if you've got it today, 235 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:52.679 mostly cloudy, high of eighty two to be clear. When 236 00:10:52.679 --> 00:10:54.799 I'm sixty five for the low not as human tomorrow 237 00:10:54.919 --> 00:10:58.480 nice on that note, sunny, and eighty five for the high. 238 00:10:58.759 --> 00:11:01.559 Clear sky is overnight down to seventy three all the 239 00:11:01.600 --> 00:11:04.320 way up to ninety one on Wednesday with mostly sunny 240 00:11:04.320 --> 00:11:07.399 skies seventy four. Right now, let's get a traffic update. 241 00:11:08.080 --> 00:11:10.840 From the UC Help Tranfort Center. You see health. 242 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:13.919 You'll find comprehensive care that's so personal and make sure 243 00:11:13.960 --> 00:11:18.399 best tomorrow possible. That's boundless care for better outcomes. Expect more. 244 00:11:18.639 --> 00:11:22.200 You see help dot Com two Rex northbound two seventy five. 245 00:11:22.279 --> 00:11:25.000 The first blocks the left two lanes right after you 246 00:11:25.039 --> 00:11:27.559 get pass thirty two in east Gate, and then the 247 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:31.879 second is on the left shoulder at Milford Parkway stop 248 00:11:31.919 --> 00:11:35.240 beound seventy five slows through Walkler Chuck Ingram Month fifty 249 00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:35.919 five KRC. 250 00:11:36.200 --> 00:11:37.720 They talk station. 251 00:11:40.080 --> 00:11:43.440 Hey nineteen fifty five kir CD Talk station Happy Monday, 252 00:11:43.480 --> 00:11:47.039 Monday Monday with Brian James from All with Financial. Let's 253 00:11:47.080 --> 00:11:51.519 talk about earnings. Says earnings beats might mask tear of 254 00:11:51.720 --> 00:11:53.840 volatility these two weeks. And I'm looking at the Wall 255 00:11:53.840 --> 00:11:57.759 Street Journal top of the scroll there Dow Jones SMP 256 00:11:58.039 --> 00:12:01.600 and Nasdaq all ticking up at about a quarter percent up, 257 00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:06.519 so futures are up this morning. Headline, Front page, Wall 258 00:12:06.559 --> 00:12:09.720 Street General, the US economy is regaining its swagger, evidence mounting. 259 00:12:09.759 --> 00:12:11.919 The companies and consumers who held back during the spring's 260 00:12:11.960 --> 00:12:16.320 tariff chill are starting to splurge again. And yet we 261 00:12:16.360 --> 00:12:18.639 have Donald Trump saying he's going to implement some new 262 00:12:18.639 --> 00:12:21.799 tariffs beginning August first, most notably in the European Union, 263 00:12:22.240 --> 00:12:24.639 a minimum of fifteen to twenty percent tariffs. So I'm 264 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:27.679 having a difficult time reconciling what all this actually means. 265 00:12:27.720 --> 00:12:30.879 Brian James. It seems like we got good information over here, 266 00:12:30.879 --> 00:12:33.120 but oh my god, those evil tariffs are coming. And 267 00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:35.360 is that going to change people's buying habits? Are people 268 00:12:35.399 --> 00:12:38.519 going to stop buying? I doesn't seem to be bothering 269 00:12:38.559 --> 00:12:39.919 anybody right now anyway, Brian. 270 00:12:40.120 --> 00:12:42.399 Yeah, it's not really spooking the herd. And we've been 271 00:12:42.440 --> 00:12:44.960 through this before, of course. In early April that was 272 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:47.480 the first round of all the tariff chaos, and the 273 00:12:47.480 --> 00:12:50.799 market took an absolute beating, dropping in some cases close 274 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:52.559 to twenty percent depending on the index you're looking at. 275 00:12:52.879 --> 00:12:55.360 And so we're going through this again. However, the headlines 276 00:12:55.399 --> 00:12:57.720 are no different. It's the same headlines. We're picking on 277 00:12:57.759 --> 00:12:59.399 a country and here's a percent number that we're going 278 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:00.840 to throw out of them, and we're going to give 279 00:13:00.879 --> 00:13:02.559 them a deadline, the same thing we did in April. 280 00:13:02.600 --> 00:13:04.360 But the market is now used to this. So where 281 00:13:04.360 --> 00:13:07.879 we're looking at now August first, a fifty percent tariff 282 00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:12.159 on copper imports. This is purportedly for national security reasons. 283 00:13:12.440 --> 00:13:16.120 This is mostly gonna hit Chile with a significant impact 284 00:13:16.159 --> 00:13:18.679 of construction, electronics, auto energy. You know, it used to 285 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:21.679 be that copper was used in plumbing and construction. That 286 00:13:21.759 --> 00:13:23.639 was kind of it. But now just about everything we 287 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:26.399 touch nowadays, since everything has to have data moving across it, 288 00:13:26.559 --> 00:13:27.720 copper is just everywhere. 289 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:28.480 So copper is. 290 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:32.720 Almost a better indicator of overall economic activity than crude oil. 291 00:13:32.960 --> 00:13:34.559 Kind of crude oil used to be the more the 292 00:13:34.600 --> 00:13:36.600 more oil we buy, the more activity we must have. 293 00:13:36.799 --> 00:13:38.519 Well now it's copper. And so there's gonna be a 294 00:13:38.519 --> 00:13:41.320 fifty percent tariff coming on August first, depending on how 295 00:13:41.320 --> 00:13:45.559 those other countries react, and thirty percent on EU and Mexico. 296 00:13:45.840 --> 00:13:48.360 And that's that one's I think probably the most well 297 00:13:48.360 --> 00:13:51.519 known that we've got hanging out there, although with Mexico 298 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:54.320 some of the USMCA compliant goods might sneak out of that, 299 00:13:54.679 --> 00:13:56.759 and then on again twenty five to thirty five percent 300 00:13:56.799 --> 00:13:59.279 on Canada, Japan, South Korea, and a few more so 301 00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:01.759 August first, that's the we're playing chicken right now. We'll 302 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:04.240 see who's going to swerve here in a week or so. 303 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:06.600 So the goal of the tariff, like, for example, copper, 304 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:09.639 we buy the copper right, we need it here. We 305 00:14:09.639 --> 00:14:12.200 don't have a giant copper mind where we're manufacturing our own. 306 00:14:12.240 --> 00:14:16.000 So there is an idea to reshore American copper production. 307 00:14:16.279 --> 00:14:20.360 It's just to teariff the country that we're buying it from. Correct, Yeah, 308 00:14:20.759 --> 00:14:21.279 the only. 309 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:23.240 Way that we can. If if we could find something 310 00:14:23.240 --> 00:14:25.440 in our own dirt that did the same thing that 311 00:14:25.480 --> 00:14:27.679 copper did, but you know, maybe even better, then we 312 00:14:27.679 --> 00:14:29.720 would do that instead. We wouldn't be talking about tariffs. 313 00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:31.559 We would throw it out here. But some things we 314 00:14:31.600 --> 00:14:33.080 simply cannot produce at home. 315 00:14:33.200 --> 00:14:33.360 Now. 316 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:35.679 In so far as Chilean copper production, we're okay, we 317 00:14:35.679 --> 00:14:37.320 can get it now. It's going to be fifty percent 318 00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:39.879 more when the tariff goes in effect, what are we 319 00:14:39.960 --> 00:14:43.000 asking from them that we would harm ourselves so much 320 00:14:43.080 --> 00:14:46.600 because there is such a huge demand for copper. Brian James, Well. 321 00:14:46.480 --> 00:14:50.320 We are simply asking, we're asking them to pay up. 322 00:14:50.320 --> 00:14:52.200 You want to do business here, We're and we're kind of, 323 00:14:52.559 --> 00:14:55.720 you know, taking a flyer on this, thinking that we 324 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:58.159 are such a big market. We're just throwing our weight around. 325 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:00.879 We are. The United States is the largest market by far, 326 00:15:01.000 --> 00:15:03.600 not even close to many many other markets that might 327 00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:05.960 be buying these products, and we're we're simply looking for 328 00:15:06.000 --> 00:15:07.879 a better deal. It's really no different than we used 329 00:15:07.879 --> 00:15:09.559 to We used to hear the stories about, uh, you 330 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:12.600 kind of still do about Walmart driving small mom and 331 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:15.759 pop shops out of business, uh, because they were looking 332 00:15:15.799 --> 00:15:18.720 for every to save every possible penny they possibly could. 333 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:21.600 They're the biggest, you know, the biggest knife in the drawer, 334 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:23.080 so they're going to use their weight. That's the same 335 00:15:23.120 --> 00:15:25.399 thing the United States is doing here across all these countries. 336 00:15:26.080 --> 00:15:26.480 All right. 337 00:15:26.799 --> 00:15:28.720 Well, another thing I saw in this report that you 338 00:15:28.759 --> 00:15:31.360 provided to me some it looks like pretty good news 339 00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:35.720 to me. Upbeat to start to the earning season helped 340 00:15:35.720 --> 00:15:39.919 to quell off these tariff fears. Around eighty three percent 341 00:15:39.960 --> 00:15:41.679 of the S and P five hundred companies that are 342 00:15:41.679 --> 00:15:46.559 reported earnings have exceeded expectations. That's pretty damn good, right there, Brian. 343 00:15:47.080 --> 00:15:49.600 It is we're on a good run. And uh and 344 00:15:49.679 --> 00:15:51.720 this is uh, you know again, this is what we're 345 00:15:51.759 --> 00:15:53.399 What we always talk about here is what did the 346 00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:56.000 analyst think was gonna happen versus what did happen. And 347 00:15:56.039 --> 00:15:57.639 we talked about this last week, you and I did 348 00:15:57.639 --> 00:15:59.840 with a handful of different companies. But this week it's 349 00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:02.879 out Alphabet, which owns Google and YouTube, stronger than first 350 00:16:02.919 --> 00:16:05.279 quarter growth. On Thursday, Intel was up. So it was 351 00:16:05.320 --> 00:16:08.080 a lot of technology stocks this week. And again those 352 00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:10.399 are the ones that benefit a lot from Copper with 353 00:16:10.440 --> 00:16:12.120 all the data houses and things that they have to 354 00:16:12.120 --> 00:16:15.639 build out there. So we're just continuing this role of 355 00:16:15.679 --> 00:16:18.440 companies being in a good spot and earning more than 356 00:16:18.440 --> 00:16:20.480 that cost them to sell their products, which is the 357 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:23.320 core of everything we want to do. And so that's 358 00:16:23.360 --> 00:16:26.799 a sign of a stable economy. Inflation is currently not 359 00:16:26.960 --> 00:16:29.039 an issue. I agree with President Trump there. It is 360 00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:31.440 currently as we're sitting here, not an issue. Some of 361 00:16:31.440 --> 00:16:33.519 the decisions he would prefer that we make may with 362 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:36.200 regards to tariffs as well as interest rate decisions that 363 00:16:36.200 --> 00:16:38.120 he would very much like to see Fed Chair Powell 364 00:16:38.159 --> 00:16:41.159 put in place that could trigger inflation. Those are concerns 365 00:16:41.200 --> 00:16:43.320 and the market is a little bit hesitant on that. 366 00:16:43.320 --> 00:16:45.159 That's why we haven't seen it going through the roof. 367 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:47.919 It's up a little bit every day, which is good, 368 00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:49.559 but at the same time, we haven't seen any huge 369 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.639 spikes that you might normally expect when we have such 370 00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:54.080 positive earning reports coming out. 371 00:16:54.120 --> 00:16:58.080 All right, Unlike copper, which is obviously a mandated necessary 372 00:16:58.279 --> 00:17:00.320 you know, you can't live without it type of item. 373 00:17:00.399 --> 00:17:03.320 Given all of the applications you put copper in. What 374 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:05.400 is it that we buy from the European Union that 375 00:17:05.480 --> 00:17:07.839 is a must have item like copper. I mean, I 376 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:10.839 understand lumber coming from Canada that impacts housing. You gotta 377 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:13.279 have lumber, Gotta have copper for the pipes, gotta have 378 00:17:13.319 --> 00:17:17.079 copper for the electrician, electritricity transmission lines, et cetera. You 379 00:17:17.119 --> 00:17:20.200 can't do without it. Honestly, as much as I love Scotch, 380 00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:23.079 I can do without it. If the price goes up 381 00:17:23.119 --> 00:17:26.200 too high, I just won't buy it. So it's discretionary 382 00:17:26.279 --> 00:17:29.160 versus mandatories. Where really the rubber hits the road, and 383 00:17:29.599 --> 00:17:31.920 what are we getting from Europe that we consider mandatory 384 00:17:32.359 --> 00:17:33.279 or desperately needed. 385 00:17:34.200 --> 00:17:36.480 Yeah, well, well, obviously, you know, Scott's deliveries to the 386 00:17:36.519 --> 00:17:39.319 West side of Cincinnati are a major major indicator that 387 00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:41.759 we watch to see, you know, exactly what's going on 388 00:17:41.799 --> 00:17:45.759 between our relationships there. But now a lot of pharmaceuticals, 389 00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:48.680 medicinal products that's about one hundred and twenty seven billion 390 00:17:48.720 --> 00:17:51.960 dollars last year, a lot of nuclear equipment, boilers, engines, 391 00:17:52.000 --> 00:17:54.440 things like that. And then of course there are vehicles 392 00:17:55.319 --> 00:17:57.759 Mercedes BMW that there's still plenty of those on the 393 00:17:57.799 --> 00:18:00.440 road over here. So it's much more industrial types of 394 00:18:00.440 --> 00:18:04.759 things that's happened to be based elsewhere. But again, pharmaceuticals 395 00:18:04.799 --> 00:18:07.079 are being the bigger one. Think of companies like Sanofi 396 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.640 and Bayar And we know we do not manufacture a 397 00:18:10.680 --> 00:18:11.920 lot of our own drug share. That's one of the 398 00:18:11.960 --> 00:18:13.519 things the current administration would like us to. 399 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:16.880 Yeah, well, maybe we'll have some activity in that direction. 400 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:17.880 Let's pause. 401 00:18:17.960 --> 00:18:20.720