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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Jill Politics. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>here with Mick Moulroy, Jonathan Hackett, and Mark poly Moreopolis.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot happening as usual. Ceasefire quote unquote is still happening.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot's been going on because I'm sure like a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of like journalists for over the last week have

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<v Speaker 1>just been twiddling their thumbs a little bit, right. So

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<v Speaker 1>we saw that Atlantic piece came out where essentially, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>my perspective of it is jd Vance leaking to the

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<v Speaker 1>Atlantic that he's not about this, and in meetings he's

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<v Speaker 1>brought up like, you know, questioning what's going on in

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<v Speaker 1>Iran and stuff like that. I think it's political obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>because I'm a cynical piece of shit, But that's me,

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<v Speaker 1>you know. We also saw the Center for Strategic and

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<v Speaker 1>International Studies come out say talking about how we really

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<v Speaker 1>haven't depleted a lot of Iran's like air force and

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<v Speaker 1>missiles and ballistic missiles and drones specifically. We also did

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<v Speaker 1>see from CNN a couple of days ago to kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like what happened to all of our bases in

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<v Speaker 1>and around the area, Like they've gotten pretty smoked for

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<v Speaker 1>the most part. Another thing I saw which was wild.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean this was all because the Pentagon is in

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<v Speaker 1>the administration as a whole, is keeping it as quiet

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<v Speaker 1>as possible. We saw like an F five of Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>like bomb the Kuwaiti air and things like that, like

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<v Speaker 1>just things that it was like right the next day

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<v Speaker 1>or the next two days after we started bombing, I

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<v Speaker 1>ran so stuff that we didn't think would be possible, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Like obviously we knew we'd lose equipment and stuff like that,

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<v Speaker 1>and unfortunately we lost you know, servicemen and women. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's not exactly going as swimmingly as those semi daily

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<v Speaker 1>or semi weekly Pentagon press briefings are telling us it's going.

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<v Speaker 1>So I guess let's start there and like, we'll just

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<v Speaker 1>see where this combo goes. I mean, make you can

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<v Speaker 1>go first. You worked at a d D. We're a

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<v Speaker 1>big wig over there.

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<v Speaker 2>I did work at the d D, start as a private,

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<v Speaker 2>ended up, you know, with the policy job. So I'd

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<v Speaker 2>start with this to say we can get into all that.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd start with this. This idea that you can't question

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<v Speaker 2>the policy decisions of an administration or you're somehow attacking

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<v Speaker 2>the military and not being patriotic. It's not only completely untrue.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, say'd say it's the opposite, as long as

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<v Speaker 2>your complaints are valid. The US military uniform military doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>make policy, right, so it's not their decision to go

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<v Speaker 2>to war. It's the it's the civilian policy makers that

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<v Speaker 2>are either politically elected or politically appointed or making the decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>And then.

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<v Speaker 2>The other part to that is most of the people

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<v Speaker 2>that are now deciding that it's unpatriotic to criticize the

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<v Speaker 2>political decisions that brought people to war. Made their political

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<v Speaker 2>mark criticizing the political decisions that brought us to war

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<v Speaker 2>for the last twenty years. So not only is it

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<v Speaker 2>not true, it's completely hypocritical, which is one of the

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<v Speaker 2>things that just I would either just disagree with somebody

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<v Speaker 2>or somebody just not you know, be a good person,

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<v Speaker 2>but not be hypocritical. For some reason, that just drives

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<v Speaker 2>me great. Like, So I think we should all acknowledge

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<v Speaker 2>that you can disagree with your political leadership and still

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<v Speaker 2>fully support the men and women in uniform, which I'm

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<v Speaker 2>sure everybody on this podcast does. And I'm one, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess I'm on the right side of this podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm one that supported the you know, the nuclear bombings

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<v Speaker 2>are the bombings of the nuclear facilities back and twelve

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<v Speaker 2>Dy war. I support the military objectives of this war.

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<v Speaker 2>I just think we're making a lot of mistakes when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to how we're presenting it. And I bring

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<v Speaker 2>that up mostly because I want us to be successful.

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<v Speaker 2>I want the US to be successful at then this.

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<v Speaker 2>I want history to judge that this was strategic success

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<v Speaker 2>by the United States. Because I think that's you know,

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<v Speaker 2>that's where I am. So the criticism, if any, if

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<v Speaker 2>it's taken that way, is to so that we don't

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<v Speaker 2>come out as a strategic failure in this endeavor. And

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<v Speaker 2>the first thing is to you know, even though your

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<v Speaker 2>mom told you this, honestly, the best policy is to

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<v Speaker 2>be upfront with what's happening and what's not happening. It's

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<v Speaker 2>all going to come out. It's all going to come out.

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<v Speaker 2>We all know it. Historians are going to read the

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<v Speaker 2>declassified a description of what we did and what we

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<v Speaker 2>didn't do, what the enemy did and what the enemy

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<v Speaker 2>didn't do. It's all going to come out. So you

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<v Speaker 2>can have your five minutes of your world, which is

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<v Speaker 2>already being eroded, and you already mentioned all of the

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<v Speaker 2>media that's coming out, and it's being eroded inside of

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<v Speaker 2>the administration of the vice president level. So if we

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<v Speaker 2>didn't reduce their politic missile and suicide drones as much

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<v Speaker 2>as we're saying we need to fix it, we just

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<v Speaker 2>need to say it. And if they did a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of damage to our bases, we need to say it.

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't mean that we're losing necessarily, it doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to lose whatever the definition of that is.

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<v Speaker 2>But if once you start telling the truth, people are

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<v Speaker 2>going to completely dismiss you and they're just going to

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<v Speaker 2>assume anything you do say after that it's just you know,

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<v Speaker 2>not accurate. So I would I would start with, let's

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<v Speaker 2>let's just go with honesty is the best policy, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's not really what politicians do. I think not only

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<v Speaker 2>is that good just ethically, but ultimately it's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be good politically, and you know, to the extent that

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<v Speaker 2>we need to review how we're doing. That's important because

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<v Speaker 2>it's not only important to capture what happened, but we're

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<v Speaker 2>about to go into we think a new round of

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<v Speaker 2>kinetic activity. We're about to start the air war again. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>So if you want people to listen to Okay, now

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<v Speaker 2>we've depleted this strategic asset to that you're gonna have

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<v Speaker 2>to be totally earnest with your numbers. And now we're

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<v Speaker 2>also hear in addition to what dsaid, that the Air

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<v Speaker 2>Force wasn't completely destroyed, which I've been saying over and

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<v Speaker 2>over again, but apparently that's not the case. Because I'm

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<v Speaker 2>obviously don't have access to classified information. I'm just going

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<v Speaker 2>with media reports, so I'd start with that. I know

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to get into you know, what's going to

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<v Speaker 2>happen next and all that, but I think since d

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<v Speaker 2>you kicked it off talking about those really important issues,

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<v Speaker 2>I'll stop there and throw it to them. My friends here.

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<v Speaker 1>Who wants it? Who wants it mud wrestle, not me?

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<v Speaker 1>Get the ky I'll get it right now.

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<v Speaker 2>You have a different definition of mud wrestle than I do.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, let me let me just take a quick

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<v Speaker 4>That was gross.

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<v Speaker 3>Some just flipped over compliant boarding.

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<v Speaker 4>Although I think Jonathan is wearing kind of like this

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<v Speaker 4>V neck V neck shirts that's kind of sexy there,

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<v Speaker 4>but you know, n coffee. Uh, all right, I'm going

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<v Speaker 4>to translate. So, first of all, I I really enjoyed

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<v Speaker 4>what you said right there. I'm going to translate mick

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<v Speaker 4>talk into angry Greek talk. Yeah, in honor of the

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<v Speaker 4>and I's heritage and who we are, no on a

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<v Speaker 4>serious I mean, so, so I agree with all that,

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<v Speaker 4>and you can then translate that into our secretary of

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<v Speaker 4>Defense is full of sh His testimony in front of

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<v Speaker 4>the Hill was obnoxious, it was irritating. I think he

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<v Speaker 4>was lying, and it was insulting because exactly what Nick said,

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<v Speaker 4>questioning people's patriotism who are saying, hey, what's going on

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<v Speaker 4>with the war is absolutely bullshit and that's un American,

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<v Speaker 4>And Mick, you said it perfectly because the entire administration

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<v Speaker 4>has been lamd basting the never ending wars of Iraq

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<v Speaker 4>and Afghanistan, and so now we're not allowed as commentators

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<v Speaker 4>just questioning what's happening, and so that's angry Greek translation.

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<v Speaker 4>I cannot imagine a less capable, less competent, more irritating

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<v Speaker 4>secretary of Defense I've ever seen in my lifetime. And

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<v Speaker 4>I would imagine you guys don't have to agree or

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<v Speaker 4>or publicly, but I would imagine the uniform military, especially

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<v Speaker 4>at the senior levels, feels the same way. Maybe not

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<v Speaker 4>the more junior folks, maybe not be enlisted. Who likes

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<v Speaker 4>the idea of a leader being able to bench through fifteen?

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<v Speaker 4>But come on, now, you know, and I do think

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<v Speaker 4>there's a there's a notion of this. You know, as

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<v Speaker 4>I was watching this, I've turned it off because I

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<v Speaker 4>do find it insulting. And you guys are gonna laugh

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<v Speaker 4>when I say this, But you know, so I'm a

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<v Speaker 4>critic of the Trump administration, work for the agency for

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<v Speaker 4>twenty six years and went to some really kind of

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<v Speaker 4>funky places. Look, I'm a patriot. I fly the American

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<v Speaker 4>flag outside my house. I drive a pickup truck, and

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<v Speaker 4>I listen to country music and I have guns. Yet

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<v Speaker 4>somehow like I'm the I'm not a patriot. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>I find that absolutely insulting. In particular, if you have

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<v Speaker 4>a brain on your head and you realize that, you know, hey,

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<v Speaker 4>maybe the United States overstretched over the g watt over

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<v Speaker 4>a rock and Afghanistan, it's okay now to question if

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<v Speaker 4>this is going to turn into some never ending commitment.

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<v Speaker 4>So let me just throw that out there. Anyway, Mick,

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<v Speaker 4>I thought what you said was great. I just wanted

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<v Speaker 4>to give a little spice.

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<v Speaker 3>One.

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<v Speaker 4>But let me just raise a couple other points for discussion,

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<v Speaker 4>because it does have to do with the notion of,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, can we believe what the government says. I

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<v Speaker 4>sound like a conspiracy theorist. But when CD is putting

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<v Speaker 4>out things such as, you know, the price tag of

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<v Speaker 4>this war and that's from the congressional testimonies twenty five billion,

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<v Speaker 4>nobody believes that that was met with eye rolls. There's

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<v Speaker 4>just no way it's that it's that low. Again, that's

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<v Speaker 4>not necessary to do that. Just tell the truth when

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<v Speaker 4>you have, you know, the administration coming out, and this

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<v Speaker 4>is something that we definitely have to talk about, because

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<v Speaker 4>both Mick and Jonathan are veritable legal wizards or legal beagles.

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<v Speaker 4>Have talked about the sixty day UH time limit coming

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<v Speaker 4>up on the War Powers Resolution. Well, it came up

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<v Speaker 4>and we got some oh, concern from the Republican members

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<v Speaker 4>of Congress. I'm concerned, this is, this is and by

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<v Speaker 4>the way, and then we went on vacation for a week.

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<v Speaker 4>So then they went home. They're not going to do anything.

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<v Speaker 4>So we blew past that. And then literally Trump said, well,

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<v Speaker 4>if there's a ceasefire, the clock stops ticking.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember saying that that's what his fucking logic was

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<v Speaker 1>going to be, because I come back from New York too. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>my logic would be like, oh, we have a ce swire,

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<v Speaker 1>the sixty days is paused.

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<v Speaker 4>But as both Jonathan and Mick have pointed out, I

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<v Speaker 4>didn't know this, but a blockade is an active war

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<v Speaker 4>according to the United Nations. Plus we have fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 4>troops in the region who probably are at a trigger's

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<v Speaker 4>edge right now, especially as Mick said that it looks

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<v Speaker 4>like we might resume military activity anyway. So there's that.

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<v Speaker 4>And then the final piece just to raise is and

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<v Speaker 4>this goes to a different conflict, is but the US

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<v Speaker 4>Congress and the administration agreed to allocate four hundred million

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<v Speaker 4>dollars to Ukraine for assistance, and they didn't do it.

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<v Speaker 4>They literally broke the law until the Hill called them

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<v Speaker 4>on it and then they just released it. And so

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<v Speaker 4>I am at a point in which and I sound

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<v Speaker 4>like some kind of you know, campus protester, even though

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not. As I said, I'm a patriot and very centrist,

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<v Speaker 4>but I don't trust anything that comes out of this government.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's terrible to say. Now, d we're talking kind

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<v Speaker 4>of the in the i's only team room or the

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<v Speaker 4>green room. Sorry before that, Yeah, maybe we never should

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<v Speaker 4>trust the government on anything, but I think this is

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<v Speaker 4>pretty pretty significant, and that stuff that's coming out from DoD,

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<v Speaker 4>you do you have to kind of meet with a

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<v Speaker 4>raised eyebrown, and Nick noted that peace I don't know

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<v Speaker 4>if it's Axios or New York Times or Washington Post

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<v Speaker 4>or the Journal, saying that JD vance is not even

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<v Speaker 4>trusting that's coming out of a d D two. That's

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<v Speaker 4>the kind of ponder But you know, big picture, I'm

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<v Speaker 4>a little distrustful of the administration right now what they're

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<v Speaker 4>saying about the war.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and also with the War Powers Resolution is very

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<v Speaker 3>interesting that some representatives and senators think that it's an

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<v Speaker 3>unconstitutional act to begin with. They've been more and more

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<v Speaker 3>vocal about that over the past few weeks. They've first

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<v Speaker 3>of all, they've rejected a vote on it six times

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<v Speaker 3>in sixty days, which is a lot. It's a sixty

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<v Speaker 3>day resolution that has a ninety day extension, so if

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<v Speaker 3>the administrator wanted to, they could actually ask Congress for

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<v Speaker 3>an extension of thirty days asked May first, and instead

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<v Speaker 3>of doing that, they use what we discussed last time,

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<v Speaker 3>which is justification, just saying there are no hostilities anyway,

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<v Speaker 3>so why would we even ask for an extension. And

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<v Speaker 3>also it's actually been over for eighteen days. They claim

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<v Speaker 3>that May first was eighteen days into the cessation of

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<v Speaker 3>a hostility, so there was actually no need to report

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<v Speaker 3>to Congress anyway. So it's kind of this concern that

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<v Speaker 3>maybe there will be this button that they can just

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<v Speaker 3>continue pressing in the future because there's precedent now that

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<v Speaker 3>they can say, well, we already stopped fighting yesterday, so

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<v Speaker 3>that give me twenty four more hours. Just kind of

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<v Speaker 3>like what we used to do when we would have

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<v Speaker 3>our passports and we had to go get a visa

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<v Speaker 3>reset so we could be in and out of the

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<v Speaker 3>country on a certain kind of visa. We'd fly to

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<v Speaker 3>a third country, get our passport reset, get a new stamp,

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<v Speaker 3>come back in the country. Very similar logic going on

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<v Speaker 3>right now, where it's like, Okay, we just stopped the

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<v Speaker 3>war today, we'll restart it tomorrow. Clock starts back to one.

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<v Speaker 3>And it seems that Congress, first of all, not only

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<v Speaker 3>would they not push back on that, second of all,

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<v Speaker 3>they'd actually pretend there was no need for reporting in

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<v Speaker 3>the first place, because of how they're beginning to justify

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<v Speaker 3>not needing to vote on this resolution, which in the

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<v Speaker 3>green room we were talking about, you know, when the

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<v Speaker 3>founding fathers, who are all mostly in their twenties, actually

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<v Speaker 3>sitting around coming up with these ideas, brilliant people thinking

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<v Speaker 3>of ways to stop something exactly this from happening. And

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<v Speaker 3>actually in Federal's paper number ten, it talks about the

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<v Speaker 3>dangerous of political parties and how that leads to factionalism

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<v Speaker 3>exactly like we're seeing right now. So even though they

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<v Speaker 3>were they were super smart and came up with all

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<v Speaker 3>these things, they knew that it wasn't perfect. And right

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<v Speaker 3>now we're seeing kind of what happens when it's not

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<v Speaker 3>perfect in a war type situation. So it's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>scary to be living in that time.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Jonathan, since you're in law school and talking about

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<v Speaker 2>this right now, it seems like there's two parts of this.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>So the administration is arguing, you know it, sixty eight

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<v Speaker 2>didn't run because of the cease far at the same

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<v Speaker 2>time they're arguing with the whole thing sounds constitutional. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>It's almost like you're you're you've got two lines of

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<v Speaker 2>effort here as far as the administration goes. And then

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<v Speaker 2>if if Congress doesn't actually enforce it, then it basically

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't exist. They could always cut off funding, right, they

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<v Speaker 2>could always do that. But where because I don't really know,

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<v Speaker 2>like how has this Supreme Court avoided answering this question

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<v Speaker 2>definitively all the way till today. I mean, this is

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<v Speaker 2>the most important thing the government does, whether you, or

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<v Speaker 2>for the war against the war, or for any of

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<v Speaker 2>the wars against the war, like this should be clear,

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<v Speaker 2>like where does Congress's authority start an end? And where

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<v Speaker 2>does the President's commander chief start an end? And how

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<v Speaker 2>come we haven't had a definitive statement by the Supreme

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<v Speaker 2>Court saying this is the answer to the question of

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<v Speaker 2>whether this, you know, nineteen seventy three War Powers Act

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<v Speaker 2>is constitution.

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<v Speaker 3>So what we're missing is an injured party or someone

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<v Speaker 3>with an actual complaint, a human being with a complaint

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<v Speaker 3>that can bring this up through the appeals process to

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<v Speaker 3>the Supreme Court. Because the Supreme Court lacks original jurisdiction

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<v Speaker 3>over a lot of things. In fact, they have almost

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<v Speaker 3>no original jurisdiction over anything except a very tiny amount

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<v Speaker 3>of very specific things. And this is not one of

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<v Speaker 3>those things. So in order for this act, this law

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<v Speaker 3>to actually be adjudicated under Marbury v. Madisone, which is

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<v Speaker 3>judicial review, there needs to be a person or interested

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<v Speaker 3>party that actually contests this at a lower level.

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<v Speaker 1>There needs to be a lawsuit.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Yeah, it has to survive. It has to survive,

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<v Speaker 3>because that's the other problem is maybe there's a good

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<v Speaker 3>claim here, but that claim isn't something that would make

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<v Speaker 3>it through the appeals process to get actually argued in

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<v Speaker 3>front of the Supreme Court. And then worse, the Supreme

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<v Speaker 3>Court actually is the only court that gets to pick

335
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<v Speaker 3>what they actually deliberate on. So you could bring up

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<v Speaker 3>ten issues in this case and it makes it all

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<v Speaker 3>the way the Supreme Court. Everything's gone through the worst

338
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<v Speaker 3>challenges and now it's there, and the Supreme Court's like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know what, We're only going to argue one of

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<v Speaker 3>those nine issues or one of those ten issues, and

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to kick back the other nine to lower courts,

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<v Speaker 3>or we're just going to say, like we're just going

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<v Speaker 3>to ignore it in the opinion not even talk about it,

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<v Speaker 3>which is actually what they've done a few emergency docket

345
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<v Speaker 3>decisions recently where they've done some procedural stuff that was

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<v Speaker 3>not actually the main question and then just basically gotten

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<v Speaker 3>rid of the case. So I think thinking through the

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<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court method is probably not the most effective way

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<v Speaker 3>to actually get at this problem. Instead, it's through either

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<v Speaker 3>new legislation or elections that force out the naysayers or

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<v Speaker 3>bring in people with different ideas to create kind of

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<v Speaker 3>a conflict of discussion there that's what we actually need

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<v Speaker 3>in Congress is not one set of yet is in

354
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<v Speaker 3>one set of naves. Instead, we need actual deliberation and

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<v Speaker 3>discussion and synthesis out of these disagreements, which is something

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<v Speaker 3>that we're i think missing, and that's the most effective

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<v Speaker 3>way to actually get at the answer this question about

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<v Speaker 3>the war powers resolution.

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<v Speaker 1>So functioning Congress is what you're telling.

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<v Speaker 4>But just to just to be fair though, I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>if you look at Kosovo in ninety nine with Bill

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<v Speaker 4>Clinton and Tripoli and Libya with Obama, Uh, when was

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<v Speaker 4>that in my missing you know, neither of those uh

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<v Speaker 4>you know, democratic presidents have ignored this as well. I

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<v Speaker 4>just I just think that's the idea that that what

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<v Speaker 4>what I find. I never expected Congress to step up here,

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<v Speaker 4>but you know, it's it's actually more irritating when Republican

368
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<v Speaker 4>members say, well, we're concerned, Well you know what does

369
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<v Speaker 4>that mean there? And then they go off on break

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<v Speaker 4>for a week They're going to do nothing. As the

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<v Speaker 4>idea that that somehow Congress is going to buck the

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<v Speaker 4>administration on this, I think, even from the Republican side,

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<v Speaker 4>is fanciful unless maybe, and you know, if if it

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<v Speaker 4>really does seem to be something drawn out, but at

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<v Speaker 4>this point I'm not I'm not confident. But on that note,

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<v Speaker 4>what about the notion of resumption of military activity. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>there was the you know, I thought Admiral Cooper's visit

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<v Speaker 4>to the USS Tripoli, I think it was pretty significant.

379
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<v Speaker 4>You know, we always think about separating signal from noise.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, noise is a Trump presser on the tarmac,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, before he jumps on Air Force one and

382
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<v Speaker 4>he's just blurt shit out and no one has any idea.

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<v Speaker 4>But I don't know, I thought that was pretty significant.

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<v Speaker 4>I think also there's been some consultations with the Israelis

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<v Speaker 4>as well that I've gone on, And so what do

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<v Speaker 4>you guys think? And just let me just kind of

387
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<v Speaker 4>caveat this for the last you know, a couple of

388
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<v Speaker 4>weeks in the media, I've been saying, look, I really

389
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<v Speaker 4>don't think either size wants to resume the military the fight.

390
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<v Speaker 4>But I'm actually changing my mind on this now. I

391
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<v Speaker 4>think Trump's getting frustrated and and while you can make

392
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<v Speaker 4>a case that we can outlast the Iranians for kind

393
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<v Speaker 4>of in the on the economic pain front, this is

394
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<v Speaker 4>not his shtick. He likes things to be kind of

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<v Speaker 4>tidy and neat, and so I think there is a

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<v Speaker 4>chance that there's going to be some kind of strife.

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<v Speaker 4>So if you guys agree with that, what would we

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<v Speaker 4>what would it look like? What's the target set?

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<v Speaker 2>Uh?

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<v Speaker 4>And do you think you know, is it even going

401
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<v Speaker 4>to be something like carg Island ground forces? You know,

402
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<v Speaker 4>what's what are your thoughts?

403
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<v Speaker 3>Well, first thing, it's important to frame up what's going

404
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<v Speaker 3>on with the with the politics in the region, because

405
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<v Speaker 3>where the alliances are today are different than where they

406
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<v Speaker 3>were in February before they started. And for example, if

407
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<v Speaker 3>you look at who is the foreign Minister of Iran

408
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<v Speaker 3>calling and then publicizing those calls, those are different targets

409
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<v Speaker 3>or bodies than they were before in February. For example, Turkey, Egypt, Katar,

410
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<v Speaker 3>Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Azerbaijan were all called within the

411
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<v Speaker 3>last twenty four hours by Iran's foreign minister. Saudi Arabia

412
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<v Speaker 3>would not have been on that list in February. For example,

413
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<v Speaker 3>Azerbaijan one hundred percent, not because Azerbaijan is seen as

414
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<v Speaker 3>a puppet of Israel by the Iranian regime. There's there's

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<v Speaker 3>no way they would have been calling them and publicizing

416
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<v Speaker 3>these calls. So there's certainly something going on here on

417
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<v Speaker 3>the Iran side trying to probably posture or like search

418
00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:05.319
<v Speaker 3>around for some kind of support around their borders because

419
00:21:05.359 --> 00:21:08.319
<v Speaker 3>they sense or perhaps are planning something same with the

420
00:21:08.400 --> 00:21:11.200
<v Speaker 3>United States. With the Emirates withdrawing from OPEC. I mean,

421
00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:13.480
<v Speaker 3>this is a massive change, and it's very important to

422
00:21:13.519 --> 00:21:17.200
<v Speaker 3>highlight how significant that is because OPEK has since the

423
00:21:17.279 --> 00:21:22.759
<v Speaker 3>nineteen seventies been an unlawful monopoly over oil. If OPEC

424
00:21:22.839 --> 00:21:26.680
<v Speaker 3>countries were corporations, we actually have laws that would ban

425
00:21:26.799 --> 00:21:29.200
<v Speaker 3>them from selling oil to US because of their non

426
00:21:29.240 --> 00:21:32.480
<v Speaker 3>competitive behavior and colluding on prices. So the fact that

427
00:21:32.519 --> 00:21:35.039
<v Speaker 3>the Emirates jumped out of that, they just lost access

428
00:21:35.079 --> 00:21:38.319
<v Speaker 3>to this really favorable financial system that they belong to

429
00:21:39.279 --> 00:21:41.920
<v Speaker 3>because they're part of the Abraham Accords and they're looking

430
00:21:41.960 --> 00:21:44.200
<v Speaker 3>west right now, they're looking at Israel, they're looking at

431
00:21:44.200 --> 00:21:47.279
<v Speaker 3>the United States, and they're understanding that their position no

432
00:21:47.319 --> 00:21:50.599
<v Speaker 3>longer depends on other Gulf states. For what's happening inside

433
00:21:50.640 --> 00:21:52.319
<v Speaker 3>the Emirates, I think this is kind of a time

434
00:21:52.359 --> 00:21:54.359
<v Speaker 3>where the Emirates are seeing themselves kind of growing up

435
00:21:54.359 --> 00:21:56.359
<v Speaker 3>in the region and starting to gain a little bit

436
00:21:56.359 --> 00:21:58.720
<v Speaker 3>more independence than they have had, especially in the eighties

437
00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:01.519
<v Speaker 3>and nineties period when it was dominated by other golf states,

438
00:22:01.559 --> 00:22:04.039
<v Speaker 3>in particular Saudi Arabia. And I think that you see

439
00:22:04.079 --> 00:22:05.240
<v Speaker 3>that starting to rise up now too.

440
00:22:05.279 --> 00:22:06.960
<v Speaker 4>And this is definitely do you see the Emirates wanting

441
00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:09.880
<v Speaker 4>pushing the Trump administration to resume military activity or.

442
00:22:09.839 --> 00:22:12.720
<v Speaker 3>No, well for sure. And we just authorized a bunch

443
00:22:12.759 --> 00:22:15.759
<v Speaker 3>of foreign military sales billions of dollars worth of equipment

444
00:22:15.759 --> 00:22:18.359
<v Speaker 3>to the Emirates this week, which is a new development

445
00:22:18.359 --> 00:22:20.160
<v Speaker 3>that we had not done to any other golf partner

446
00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:22.400
<v Speaker 3>in the last sixty days. So the fact that the

447
00:22:22.480 --> 00:22:25.119
<v Speaker 3>US is doing that right now very important significant And

448
00:22:25.160 --> 00:22:28.400
<v Speaker 3>at the timing of it, that funding was released days

449
00:22:28.440 --> 00:22:32.240
<v Speaker 3>after the Opek departure. Probably not a coincidence.

450
00:22:31.839 --> 00:22:34.759
<v Speaker 1>John also, is it because also they're trying to angle

451
00:22:34.799 --> 00:22:37.279
<v Speaker 1>for a little bit of like a bridge loan bailout

452
00:22:37.839 --> 00:22:38.799
<v Speaker 1>as well.

453
00:22:38.920 --> 00:22:41.519
<v Speaker 3>Right they're trying to do a dollar for dinar exchange

454
00:22:41.519 --> 00:22:44.160
<v Speaker 3>basically to buoy their economy, which if you think about

455
00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:47.400
<v Speaker 3>the sequence of these events, the dollar exchange was announced first,

456
00:22:47.799 --> 00:22:50.759
<v Speaker 3>the Opek departure was announced second, and then the foreign

457
00:22:50.799 --> 00:22:54.000
<v Speaker 3>military sales was announced right after that in succession. Right,

458
00:22:54.039 --> 00:22:56.039
<v Speaker 3>So there's clearly some economic back and forth between the

459
00:22:56.079 --> 00:22:59.799
<v Speaker 3>United States and the Emirates and Israel. The Israel Emirates

460
00:22:59.799 --> 00:23:01.960
<v Speaker 3>part a little bit quieter or harder to see in

461
00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:03.640
<v Speaker 3>the noise, but certainly.

462
00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:06.039
<v Speaker 4>The way iron Dome and idea of soldiers on the

463
00:23:06.039 --> 00:23:08.440
<v Speaker 4>ground in the Emirates, I mean.

464
00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:10.519
<v Speaker 3>That's a huge that never has happened yet.

465
00:23:12.200 --> 00:23:16.359
<v Speaker 2>It's going back to your question mark. So, from what

466
00:23:16.400 --> 00:23:21.359
<v Speaker 2>I've heard, President Trump was briefed on multiple options, including

467
00:23:22.240 --> 00:23:26.519
<v Speaker 2>carg Now that doesn't mean that that's it's likely to happen.

468
00:23:26.680 --> 00:23:29.000
<v Speaker 2>I thought it was kind of like completely off the table,

469
00:23:29.559 --> 00:23:32.400
<v Speaker 2>But at least from what I'm being told by journalists

470
00:23:32.400 --> 00:23:37.079
<v Speaker 2>who are being told by officials, it is. It was briefed.

471
00:23:37.720 --> 00:23:40.079
<v Speaker 2>So that doesn't mean it's going to happen. I think

472
00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:42.680
<v Speaker 2>it's more likely that we're going to do resumption of

473
00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:47.559
<v Speaker 2>air strikes, right. I'm told it's going to be mostly

474
00:23:47.680 --> 00:23:51.680
<v Speaker 2>infrastructure targets, with the idea that they could cause more

475
00:23:51.720 --> 00:23:55.640
<v Speaker 2>pain to the regime as a way to push them

476
00:23:55.720 --> 00:23:59.640
<v Speaker 2>toward the US perspective on the ceasefire and potentially a

477
00:23:59.680 --> 00:24:05.119
<v Speaker 2>nuclear agreement. But there's some jostling back and forth. I

478
00:24:05.160 --> 00:24:07.160
<v Speaker 2>don't know if that's the right word, but the military

479
00:24:07.160 --> 00:24:10.279
<v Speaker 2>obviously has to hit valid military targets. They can't just

480
00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:15.799
<v Speaker 2>blow up civilian infrastructure just because it's painful. Fact, that's unlawful.

481
00:24:16.279 --> 00:24:21.519
<v Speaker 2>So they're they're they're designing the target deck. I'm told

482
00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:25.400
<v Speaker 2>that it has direct nexus is to military operations, so

483
00:24:25.480 --> 00:24:28.200
<v Speaker 2>it might be power plants, but it's one that has

484
00:24:28.200 --> 00:24:32.799
<v Speaker 2>a direct connection to UH military operations, so it's a

485
00:24:32.880 --> 00:24:36.400
<v Speaker 2>valid military target, including bridges as well. And then there

486
00:24:36.440 --> 00:24:43.680
<v Speaker 2>are at least talks about trying to hit the more

487
00:24:43.720 --> 00:24:47.839
<v Speaker 2>hard line because they're all hardliners elements within the regime

488
00:24:47.960 --> 00:24:52.480
<v Speaker 2>that are completely resistant to any ceasefire and new nuclear agreement.

489
00:24:52.640 --> 00:24:55.119
<v Speaker 2>Ahiti I think is top of the list, and I'm

490
00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:58.400
<v Speaker 2>sure he understand. He knows that right, so I wouldn't

491
00:24:58.400 --> 00:25:03.160
<v Speaker 2>be standing around Bahidi that much. But you know, you know,

492
00:25:03.799 --> 00:25:05.759
<v Speaker 2>we'll see I mean, who were to replace them, Jonathan

493
00:25:05.839 --> 00:25:08.440
<v Speaker 2>might not. But it really hasn't helped us that much.

494
00:25:08.440 --> 00:25:10.279
<v Speaker 2>I mean, some people would argue we just end up

495
00:25:10.319 --> 00:25:13.920
<v Speaker 2>with more hardliners than the people will we replaced, But

496
00:25:13.960 --> 00:25:17.359
<v Speaker 2>they're valid targets because they're part of the combative chain

497
00:25:17.400 --> 00:25:19.559
<v Speaker 2>of command. So I'm not against it. I just don't

498
00:25:19.559 --> 00:25:21.720
<v Speaker 2>know if it's going to change that much. But and

499
00:25:21.759 --> 00:25:23.680
<v Speaker 2>then this is at least the way they're messaging, it's

500
00:25:23.680 --> 00:25:26.759
<v Speaker 2>going to be very limited, like a very tight duration,

501
00:25:27.160 --> 00:25:29.960
<v Speaker 2>a lot of strikes. They've transferred a lot of our

502
00:25:29.960 --> 00:25:34.440
<v Speaker 2>precision strike mindissions out there to do it. But it's

503
00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:36.680
<v Speaker 2>not just what the US does, right, because there's going

504
00:25:36.759 --> 00:25:38.920
<v Speaker 2>to be a response by the Iranians, and the Iranians

505
00:25:38.960 --> 00:25:42.480
<v Speaker 2>apparently have their target decks. They've been planning this, They've

506
00:25:42.519 --> 00:25:46.279
<v Speaker 2>been digging out the you know, the missile cities that

507
00:25:46.359 --> 00:25:49.880
<v Speaker 2>have you know, at least been damaged to their entry

508
00:25:49.880 --> 00:25:54.480
<v Speaker 2>points to be able to respond likely against the UAE. Right,

509
00:25:54.480 --> 00:25:57.079
<v Speaker 2>that's probably going to be prime target number one. And

510
00:25:57.079 --> 00:25:59.279
<v Speaker 2>it's right there, it's literally right there for this.

511
00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:02.359
<v Speaker 4>Here's the question fund them if you're sitting at THEA like. So,

512
00:26:02.359 --> 00:26:04.119
<v Speaker 4>so the only thing that matters on this is is

513
00:26:04.119 --> 00:26:07.279
<v Speaker 4>it going to work? So, you know, will is this

514
00:26:07.359 --> 00:26:10.119
<v Speaker 4>going to be any kind of step that will move

515
00:26:10.279 --> 00:26:13.319
<v Speaker 4>the Iranian negotiating position? And I think that's the big question.

516
00:26:13.519 --> 00:26:15.960
<v Speaker 4>So it's great, We're going to do this again. Beat

517
00:26:15.960 --> 00:26:18.480
<v Speaker 4>the shit out of the Iranians. Everyone loves this, but

518
00:26:18.680 --> 00:26:21.880
<v Speaker 4>is it going to work? That's the fundamental question. And

519
00:26:21.960 --> 00:26:23.400
<v Speaker 4>if you see, if you look at a lot of

520
00:26:23.400 --> 00:26:25.480
<v Speaker 4>the Iran experts, and you know, Jonathan, you're one of them,

521
00:26:25.480 --> 00:26:28.039
<v Speaker 4>please jump in. You know, the question is okay, you know,

522
00:26:28.200 --> 00:26:31.400
<v Speaker 4>that's all we care about. And and so is this

523
00:26:31.680 --> 00:26:34.319
<v Speaker 4>just kind of you know, not performed at theater. It's real?

524
00:26:35.119 --> 00:26:37.279
<v Speaker 4>But will it have an effect on the negotiations? I

525
00:26:37.319 --> 00:26:39.000
<v Speaker 4>think that's the big question. I don't know the answer.

526
00:26:39.519 --> 00:26:41.759
<v Speaker 2>That's a good question, you know. They if you remember

527
00:26:41.759 --> 00:26:44.640
<v Speaker 2>from the beginning, I was an advocate to say, we

528
00:26:44.759 --> 00:26:47.720
<v Speaker 2>go after our military objectives, we decide when it's done,

529
00:26:47.759 --> 00:26:50.640
<v Speaker 2>and then we just say it's over, right, because the

530
00:26:50.680 --> 00:26:53.519
<v Speaker 2>only thing Iran has to do to win is not lose.

531
00:26:54.599 --> 00:26:57.279
<v Speaker 2>So if there's still some regime there, they're going to

532
00:26:57.359 --> 00:26:59.599
<v Speaker 2>claim they won. And you see what I mean, like

533
00:26:59.640 --> 00:27:02.079
<v Speaker 2>it's it's it's almost an impossible task. But for the

534
00:27:02.160 --> 00:27:05.839
<v Speaker 2>US military, they can keep degrading the all the strategic

535
00:27:05.880 --> 00:27:10.799
<v Speaker 2>military assets, they can keep hitting leaders, but it's it's

536
00:27:10.839 --> 00:27:13.039
<v Speaker 2>I don't see it. I don't see them ever going.

537
00:27:13.359 --> 00:27:16.039
<v Speaker 2>You know, no, Moss, we agree to everything you say,

538
00:27:16.599 --> 00:27:19.279
<v Speaker 2>and we quit and we're gonna all resign and go home.

539
00:27:19.319 --> 00:27:21.720
<v Speaker 2>It's just never gonna happen. So and it's there's no

540
00:27:21.839 --> 00:27:25.359
<v Speaker 2>it's nothing against obviously our efforts, because it just doesn't

541
00:27:25.400 --> 00:27:27.599
<v Speaker 2>have I mean, we're not gonna put boots on the ground.

542
00:27:27.640 --> 00:27:30.000
<v Speaker 2>That's insane. I mean it's four times size of rock

543
00:27:30.079 --> 00:27:32.720
<v Speaker 2>and it's mountainous, and it's just never gonna happen. And

544
00:27:32.759 --> 00:27:36.200
<v Speaker 2>it's already like as popular as a Vietnam war, right,

545
00:27:36.240 --> 00:27:38.640
<v Speaker 2>So it's just not gonna happen. So we're trying to

546
00:27:38.680 --> 00:27:40.960
<v Speaker 2>do all this from the air with the idea that

547
00:27:41.000 --> 00:27:44.400
<v Speaker 2>there's gonna be some magic target that changes their perspective.

548
00:27:45.039 --> 00:27:47.319
<v Speaker 2>I think we could still do it, like, hey, we've

549
00:27:47.440 --> 00:27:51.519
<v Speaker 2>we've with honest numbers, we've done this, this this, We

550
00:27:51.599 --> 00:27:54.240
<v Speaker 2>think that was what we wanted to do. If they

551
00:27:54.240 --> 00:27:56.799
<v Speaker 2>start racing towards a nuclear weapon, we'll target them again.

552
00:27:57.440 --> 00:28:01.200
<v Speaker 2>But we we see the cost of this going forward

553
00:28:01.400 --> 00:28:03.400
<v Speaker 2>is not worth the squeeze. Now the issue is going

554
00:28:03.440 --> 00:28:05.960
<v Speaker 2>to be the straits or lose and then you know,

555
00:28:06.599 --> 00:28:08.519
<v Speaker 2>how do we make that mopen that back up? So

556
00:28:08.599 --> 00:28:09.920
<v Speaker 2>that's the big issue.

557
00:28:11.160 --> 00:28:13.119
<v Speaker 1>Do you think our renewed air campaign is are really

558
00:28:13.119 --> 00:28:15.880
<v Speaker 1>going to help open up the straits to regular traffic

559
00:28:15.920 --> 00:28:17.640
<v Speaker 1>that it did on February twenty seventh.

560
00:28:19.119 --> 00:28:20.440
<v Speaker 2>I think if we could have done that, we'd have

561
00:28:20.440 --> 00:28:21.200
<v Speaker 2>done it all right.

562
00:28:21.200 --> 00:28:24.039
<v Speaker 4>Right, Johonaan, Is it's going to work as any kind

563
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:26.480
<v Speaker 4>of military activity. Is there any military option that's going

564
00:28:26.519 --> 00:28:28.839
<v Speaker 4>to force the Iranians to capitulate?

565
00:28:29.799 --> 00:28:32.720
<v Speaker 3>I think a military option is a necessary element of

566
00:28:32.759 --> 00:28:36.279
<v Speaker 3>a larger strategy to be successful, but it's not going

567
00:28:36.319 --> 00:28:38.759
<v Speaker 3>to be sufficient by itself to actually achieve the end

568
00:28:38.799 --> 00:28:41.480
<v Speaker 3>state we're looking for. And if the US's end state

569
00:28:41.640 --> 00:28:45.400
<v Speaker 3>is to create lost oil revenue that forces Iran to yield,

570
00:28:46.039 --> 00:28:49.200
<v Speaker 3>that's not going to happen right now. Iran actually has

571
00:28:49.200 --> 00:28:52.160
<v Speaker 3>so much oil produced that they're scrambling to find areas

572
00:28:52.160 --> 00:28:55.240
<v Speaker 3>to store it because they're actually at overproduction levels right now,

573
00:28:55.400 --> 00:28:57.119
<v Speaker 3>right and they have these vessels that are floating out

574
00:28:57.119 --> 00:28:59.039
<v Speaker 3>in the ocean or in the sea that they're trying

575
00:28:59.039 --> 00:29:01.079
<v Speaker 3>to scramble together to put more oil into it because

576
00:29:01.079 --> 00:29:03.880
<v Speaker 3>they have so much production right now. China is absolutely

577
00:29:03.880 --> 00:29:07.039
<v Speaker 3>purchasing oil currently. They had purchased it in advance because

578
00:29:07.039 --> 00:29:09.799
<v Speaker 3>it's so oil is paid for through futures contracts that

579
00:29:09.880 --> 00:29:11.799
<v Speaker 3>they expect at a future date the oil will cost

580
00:29:11.799 --> 00:29:14.240
<v Speaker 3>this much and they pay for it. China gets it

581
00:29:14.279 --> 00:29:16.599
<v Speaker 3>at a slight discount, but it's not that much. Right now,

582
00:29:16.640 --> 00:29:18.799
<v Speaker 3>Iranian oil is something like ninety to one hundred ten

583
00:29:18.839 --> 00:29:21.839
<v Speaker 3>dollars per barrel, which is a lot. I mean that

584
00:29:21.880 --> 00:29:23.799
<v Speaker 3>money is going directly to fund the regime. So like

585
00:29:23.960 --> 00:29:25.680
<v Speaker 3>that goal, if that's our goal is to make them

586
00:29:25.720 --> 00:29:29.079
<v Speaker 3>yield to economic pressure, it's not working. At least it's neutral.

587
00:29:29.160 --> 00:29:32.519
<v Speaker 3>Maybe it's not negative, it's neutral, right, So if we're

588
00:29:32.519 --> 00:29:35.400
<v Speaker 3>looking at the blockade on its own as an active

589
00:29:35.440 --> 00:29:38.480
<v Speaker 3>war and a military option, we've hit forty eight vessels

590
00:29:38.519 --> 00:29:41.640
<v Speaker 3>in twenty days, and I have not seen us do

591
00:29:41.720 --> 00:29:45.279
<v Speaker 3>any opposed or non compliant boardings in those forty eight vessels.

592
00:29:45.279 --> 00:29:47.920
<v Speaker 3>Those have all been compliant or at least they have

593
00:29:48.079 --> 00:29:50.359
<v Speaker 3>listened to what we've instructed them to do, either turn around,

594
00:29:50.680 --> 00:29:52.720
<v Speaker 3>been escorted or something like this to stop going to

595
00:29:52.720 --> 00:29:55.920
<v Speaker 3>where they're going. So we haven't actually had any combat

596
00:29:55.920 --> 00:29:58.880
<v Speaker 3>operations on vessels yet. Forty eight of them in twenty days.

597
00:29:58.920 --> 00:30:01.200
<v Speaker 3>That's around two per day, right, well slightly more than

598
00:30:01.200 --> 00:30:04.039
<v Speaker 3>that too, per day. So that's not stopping anything because

599
00:30:04.039 --> 00:30:06.519
<v Speaker 3>their oil is still flowing. It's still moving lots of

600
00:30:06.880 --> 00:30:09.359
<v Speaker 3>ship transfers happening off in the seventh Fleet aar so

601
00:30:09.440 --> 00:30:11.680
<v Speaker 3>like off the coast of Malaysia straight to Malacca, a

602
00:30:11.720 --> 00:30:13.839
<v Speaker 3>lot of Iranian oil going on to other vessels that

603
00:30:13.880 --> 00:30:15.759
<v Speaker 3>are then making their way to China and doing exactly

604
00:30:15.759 --> 00:30:17.880
<v Speaker 3>what they were doing before the war. So that's all

605
00:30:17.960 --> 00:30:21.240
<v Speaker 3>to say that the military instrument could work if it

606
00:30:21.279 --> 00:30:23.599
<v Speaker 3>was layered with other instruments. And I always waved my

607
00:30:23.599 --> 00:30:27.160
<v Speaker 3>hands about this, that Grant strategy has other components besides

608
00:30:27.160 --> 00:30:29.920
<v Speaker 3>the military. It has a diplomatic component that's typically done

609
00:30:29.920 --> 00:30:33.440
<v Speaker 3>in secret, not advertise what's happening on that diplomatic channel,

610
00:30:33.720 --> 00:30:36.960
<v Speaker 3>because the success of diplomacy largely has to do with secrecy,

611
00:30:36.960 --> 00:30:39.480
<v Speaker 3>because both sides are not embarrassed in the process of

612
00:30:39.559 --> 00:30:42.119
<v Speaker 3>showing what they're willing to concede. It's showing to their

613
00:30:42.119 --> 00:30:44.319
<v Speaker 3>own publics what they're willing to concede. This is the problem,

614
00:30:44.640 --> 00:30:46.480
<v Speaker 3>and it seems the US is not interested in doing

615
00:30:46.559 --> 00:30:48.920
<v Speaker 3>that right now. It seems Iran might be, especially with

616
00:30:48.960 --> 00:30:50.599
<v Speaker 3>all these phone calls they're making but not saying what

617
00:30:50.640 --> 00:30:53.440
<v Speaker 3>the phone calls are about. That's clearly them trying to

618
00:30:53.559 --> 00:30:56.240
<v Speaker 3>use this old lever that other countries are traditionally aware of.

619
00:30:56.839 --> 00:30:59.759
<v Speaker 3>But there's also the economic component, which we've always said,

620
00:30:59.799 --> 00:31:04.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, sanctions aim to achieve certain behavioral changes inside

621
00:31:04.000 --> 00:31:06.200
<v Speaker 3>of a country. They have not really done that in

622
00:31:06.240 --> 00:31:09.240
<v Speaker 3>authoritarian systems like Iran, for example. They've they've had effects,

623
00:31:09.240 --> 00:31:10.640
<v Speaker 3>but not the effects that we wished for at the

624
00:31:10.720 --> 00:31:13.359
<v Speaker 3>very beginning, right, And so if you want to have

625
00:31:13.400 --> 00:31:16.559
<v Speaker 3>that economic stick, you need also an economic carrot for

626
00:31:16.720 --> 00:31:19.839
<v Speaker 3>other members of the economy to stop combining with the

627
00:31:20.200 --> 00:31:22.599
<v Speaker 3>bad actors in the economy. That can look like a

628
00:31:22.640 --> 00:31:24.480
<v Speaker 3>lot of different things. None of those things are being

629
00:31:24.519 --> 00:31:27.119
<v Speaker 3>approached right now. So kind of a long answer to

630
00:31:27.200 --> 00:31:29.279
<v Speaker 3>your question, I don't think the military alone is going

631
00:31:29.279 --> 00:31:31.440
<v Speaker 3>to achieve a positive outcome for what the US is

632
00:31:31.440 --> 00:31:32.480
<v Speaker 3>trying to do there.

633
00:31:33.359 --> 00:31:36.400
<v Speaker 2>Soot Jonathan question, then, so how are they getting around

634
00:31:36.480 --> 00:31:39.960
<v Speaker 2>the blockade? Are they just hugging their territorial waters or

635
00:31:40.240 --> 00:31:44.240
<v Speaker 2>what is what is it that's preventing the US from

636
00:31:44.240 --> 00:31:47.599
<v Speaker 2>stopping all of the ships. It's just big ocean. You know,

637
00:31:47.640 --> 00:31:49.880
<v Speaker 2>we can't be everywhere. I mean, we're at war with them,

638
00:31:49.920 --> 00:31:51.519
<v Speaker 2>so why wouldn't we just stop them in their own

639
00:31:51.599 --> 00:31:53.240
<v Speaker 2>territorial waters if we could.

640
00:31:53.400 --> 00:31:56.640
<v Speaker 5>Right, So, we have three carrier strike Yeah, we've got

641
00:31:56.640 --> 00:31:58.920
<v Speaker 5>two carrier strike groups on the eastern part of fifth Fleet,

642
00:31:58.960 --> 00:32:00.920
<v Speaker 5>then one carrier strike the six Fleet, which is the

643
00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:03.279
<v Speaker 5>Mediterranean Sea, which so that means they can't connect their

644
00:32:03.319 --> 00:32:04.279
<v Speaker 5>forces together easily.

645
00:32:04.519 --> 00:32:07.200
<v Speaker 3>So that means really you've effectively got two carrier strike

646
00:32:07.200 --> 00:32:10.599
<v Speaker 3>groups and about twelve naval ships that can actually do

647
00:32:10.680 --> 00:32:14.160
<v Speaker 3>interceptions with opposed or non compliant boarding problems, which is

648
00:32:14.200 --> 00:32:15.720
<v Speaker 3>what you have to always plan for, to always plan

649
00:32:15.720 --> 00:32:18.200
<v Speaker 3>for the worst when you approach this unknown vessel. Right,

650
00:32:18.480 --> 00:32:21.960
<v Speaker 3>So twelve ships is not a lot, especially when you're

651
00:32:21.960 --> 00:32:24.400
<v Speaker 3>talking about hundreds of vessels, some of which were already

652
00:32:24.400 --> 00:32:26.640
<v Speaker 3>outside the straits before the war started, so we actually

653
00:32:26.640 --> 00:32:30.119
<v Speaker 3>don't know where they were. You remember the MH three

654
00:32:30.200 --> 00:32:32.599
<v Speaker 3>six or whatever, the Malaysian Airlines crash that happened back

655
00:32:32.599 --> 00:32:35.720
<v Speaker 3>in twenty fifteen. We never found where that aircraft went

656
00:32:35.759 --> 00:32:38.599
<v Speaker 3>down in the Pacific Ocean, largely because the Pacific Ocean

657
00:32:38.640 --> 00:32:41.519
<v Speaker 3>is gigantic, so they're taking advantage exactly as you mentioned.

658
00:32:41.559 --> 00:32:44.240
<v Speaker 3>It's just this huge gapped space that if you have

659
00:32:44.319 --> 00:32:46.240
<v Speaker 3>your transponder off, if you're using a little bit of

660
00:32:46.279 --> 00:32:50.480
<v Speaker 3>operational security, you know, no iridium phone no transponder, no

661
00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:53.359
<v Speaker 3>direct to sell stuff, none of that. You're just you

662
00:32:53.480 --> 00:32:57.000
<v Speaker 3>have a compass, a physical compass, and you're just using

663
00:32:57.039 --> 00:32:58.920
<v Speaker 3>that and the stars, which is what they have always

664
00:32:58.920 --> 00:33:02.000
<v Speaker 3>been doing to gate east and northeast. You're going to

665
00:33:02.039 --> 00:33:03.720
<v Speaker 3>make it to that rally point that you had planned

666
00:33:03.720 --> 00:33:06.880
<v Speaker 3>in advance, with coordinates that you'd plan in advance. No electronics.

667
00:33:07.000 --> 00:33:09.279
<v Speaker 3>You show up, basically, do a brush pass with your oil,

668
00:33:09.880 --> 00:33:13.400
<v Speaker 3>transfer it off. One vessel, empties, one, fills up. Nobody

669
00:33:13.400 --> 00:33:15.799
<v Speaker 3>knows where it happened, when it happened until that vessel

670
00:33:15.880 --> 00:33:17.880
<v Speaker 3>shows up off the coast of Hong Kong and is

671
00:33:17.920 --> 00:33:20.279
<v Speaker 3>ready to go onload, you know. And this is like

672
00:33:20.440 --> 00:33:23.559
<v Speaker 3>happening every day many vessels. And again they were doing

673
00:33:23.559 --> 00:33:25.720
<v Speaker 3>this way before February. This has been something they've been

674
00:33:25.720 --> 00:33:28.119
<v Speaker 3>doing since two thousand and seven when we first sanctioned

675
00:33:28.160 --> 00:33:31.359
<v Speaker 3>their oil system. So they've had a lot of time

676
00:33:31.400 --> 00:33:33.559
<v Speaker 3>to develop with a lot of different pressures of different

677
00:33:33.680 --> 00:33:36.200
<v Speaker 3>because each administration comes in with different packages of sanctions

678
00:33:36.240 --> 00:33:38.519
<v Speaker 3>and they try different things, and the regime has been

679
00:33:38.559 --> 00:33:40.720
<v Speaker 3>able to adapt to that. Almost like antibodies or white

680
00:33:40.720 --> 00:33:42.720
<v Speaker 3>blood cells, they've been able to actually survive these white

681
00:33:42.759 --> 00:33:44.720
<v Speaker 3>blood cells coming in. So now you have this kind

682
00:33:44.720 --> 00:33:48.440
<v Speaker 3>of mutated regime that's super effective at avoiding any of

683
00:33:48.480 --> 00:33:51.240
<v Speaker 3>these sanctioned related issues that we have to any of

684
00:33:51.279 --> 00:33:53.559
<v Speaker 3>these tools we have to use because we have a

685
00:33:53.640 --> 00:33:55.680
<v Speaker 3>kind of limited number of tools to use, and they

686
00:33:55.680 --> 00:33:57.920
<v Speaker 3>know what they are. They say, we know that US

687
00:33:58.000 --> 00:34:02.000
<v Speaker 3>sanctions by Treasury say company X LLC at this address.

688
00:34:02.200 --> 00:34:05.440
<v Speaker 3>Well we'll just make company why LLC had a different address,

689
00:34:05.799 --> 00:34:07.319
<v Speaker 3>and then it will take six months for the US

690
00:34:07.400 --> 00:34:09.239
<v Speaker 3>government to catch up and make a new sanction against

691
00:34:09.239 --> 00:34:11.440
<v Speaker 3>the exact same company that just change its name and address.

692
00:34:11.920 --> 00:34:13.920
<v Speaker 3>You know, it's like they know these very simple tools

693
00:34:13.960 --> 00:34:16.880
<v Speaker 3>to get around this stuff. Again, word democracy, they're not.

694
00:34:17.280 --> 00:34:19.119
<v Speaker 3>It's faster for them to do this stuff than it

695
00:34:19.159 --> 00:34:19.679
<v Speaker 3>is for us.

696
00:34:21.559 --> 00:34:23.559
<v Speaker 4>Hey, guys, a question. There was a there was a

697
00:34:23.559 --> 00:34:26.079
<v Speaker 4>press piece yesterday. They got some attention and lots of debate,

698
00:34:26.840 --> 00:34:29.119
<v Speaker 4>and this is an issue this He's gonna love this

699
00:34:29.159 --> 00:34:32.480
<v Speaker 4>because we started talking about Israel and Israeli influence. But

700
00:34:32.599 --> 00:34:34.960
<v Speaker 4>there was a someone from UH I think his name

701
00:34:35.000 --> 00:34:37.760
<v Speaker 4>is Nick Stewart from the Freedom of Defense Democracies is

702
00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:40.360
<v Speaker 4>joining the Peace Talks as a as an aid as

703
00:34:40.360 --> 00:34:43.199
<v Speaker 4>an advisor to U to the U S side. I

704
00:34:43.199 --> 00:34:45.159
<v Speaker 4>think he served in the first Trump administration. Mick, I

705
00:34:45.199 --> 00:34:47.239
<v Speaker 4>don't know if you know Nick Stuart, but it's an

706
00:34:47.280 --> 00:34:49.960
<v Speaker 4>FDD guy. And so, you know, there's a lot of

707
00:34:49.960 --> 00:34:53.800
<v Speaker 4>people who really think that that organization, that Think Tank

708
00:34:53.840 --> 00:34:57.440
<v Speaker 4>has a lot of undue influence. Clearly they you know,

709
00:34:57.559 --> 00:35:00.320
<v Speaker 4>they have the ear of the administration. But have you

710
00:35:00.320 --> 00:35:01.960
<v Speaker 4>guys followed this at all? What are your what are

711
00:35:01.960 --> 00:35:05.079
<v Speaker 4>your thoughts on that? You know, because one of the

712
00:35:05.119 --> 00:35:07.119
<v Speaker 4>things that I thought was interesting is, you know, we've

713
00:35:07.159 --> 00:35:10.119
<v Speaker 4>all criticized the administration for not listening to any Iran experts. Well,

714
00:35:10.119 --> 00:35:12.239
<v Speaker 4>they're bringing in an iron expert. We might not like

715
00:35:12.280 --> 00:35:14.199
<v Speaker 4>the Iran expert we're bringing. They're bringing the last They're

716
00:35:14.199 --> 00:35:17.800
<v Speaker 4>actually bringing in someone who can help. You know, Kushner

717
00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:20.559
<v Speaker 4>and wi Cough were completely the most clueless envoys in

718
00:35:20.559 --> 00:35:23.480
<v Speaker 4>the history of the US diplomacy. So have you guys

719
00:35:23.480 --> 00:35:24.199
<v Speaker 4>followed that at all?

720
00:35:26.000 --> 00:35:28.519
<v Speaker 2>I mean to the extent that I mean Traditionally you

721
00:35:28.559 --> 00:35:33.320
<v Speaker 2>see think tank, especially the ones in DC. When your

722
00:35:33.440 --> 00:35:36.719
<v Speaker 2>parties has a White House, you know, they empty out

723
00:35:36.840 --> 00:35:39.199
<v Speaker 2>those think tanks and they go work and they become

724
00:35:39.559 --> 00:35:41.840
<v Speaker 2>the dazzies, and the dazz d's and all that, and

725
00:35:41.880 --> 00:35:43.400
<v Speaker 2>then when your party is not, you go back to

726
00:35:43.440 --> 00:35:45.760
<v Speaker 2>the think tanks, right, So, which is not bad, I

727
00:35:45.760 --> 00:35:48.599
<v Speaker 2>mean because that means like the people that make policy

728
00:35:48.760 --> 00:35:52.320
<v Speaker 2>kind of grow up in that system, right They start

729
00:35:52.320 --> 00:35:54.480
<v Speaker 2>as a junior person and they move up and I

730
00:35:54.519 --> 00:35:56.639
<v Speaker 2>also go to the Hill and aren't on the Foreign

731
00:35:56.679 --> 00:36:01.880
<v Speaker 2>Relations Committee and stuff, So think tanks hillstaffers, and so

732
00:36:02.039 --> 00:36:06.079
<v Speaker 2>it does create a pool of people who are very

733
00:36:06.159 --> 00:36:09.679
<v Speaker 2>seasoned and smart on every issue. You might disagree with

734
00:36:09.920 --> 00:36:12.599
<v Speaker 2>their stance on it, but that's how it generally works.

735
00:36:12.599 --> 00:36:15.800
<v Speaker 2>And we haven't seen it, like we've even seen the Pentagon,

736
00:36:15.920 --> 00:36:17.960
<v Speaker 2>at least the leadership of the Pentagon like not even

737
00:36:18.000 --> 00:36:22.320
<v Speaker 2>allow fellows, you know, military fellows to go to these

738
00:36:22.400 --> 00:36:24.960
<v Speaker 2>think tanks. And that's like, this has historically been part

739
00:36:25.400 --> 00:36:28.880
<v Speaker 2>of our policy system for both sides. So the fact

740
00:36:28.920 --> 00:36:30.679
<v Speaker 2>that they're using some and of course it's going to

741
00:36:30.679 --> 00:36:35.599
<v Speaker 2>be you know, somebody from their political inkling that's common

742
00:36:36.480 --> 00:36:38.360
<v Speaker 2>is a good thing. And I don't know Nick, but

743
00:36:39.559 --> 00:36:41.519
<v Speaker 2>it's a good thing that they are. I would hope

744
00:36:41.519 --> 00:36:46.519
<v Speaker 2>they would use more of these folks and think tanks.

745
00:36:47.760 --> 00:36:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Once, Yeah, because is like the FDD. I'm just reading

746
00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:52.760
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. As you guys are talking, it's like,

747
00:36:52.880 --> 00:36:56.559
<v Speaker 1>come on, bro, come on, brothers. It's like, what are

748
00:36:56.559 --> 00:37:01.960
<v Speaker 1>we doing. I mean, they're straight up fucking Israeli shills,

749
00:37:01.960 --> 00:37:06.639
<v Speaker 1>like they looked at as part of the Israeli lobbying

750
00:37:07.039 --> 00:37:10.519
<v Speaker 1>effort into America, which they do an incredible job of. Frankly,

751
00:37:11.000 --> 00:37:14.119
<v Speaker 1>and kudos to them, I guess, extremely hard line in

752
00:37:14.199 --> 00:37:15.760
<v Speaker 1>terms when it comes to our rand too. It's like

753
00:37:15.760 --> 00:37:18.400
<v Speaker 1>getting another crazy uncle from the IRGC to come and

754
00:37:18.559 --> 00:37:21.000
<v Speaker 1>come and join us at the negotiation table. It's gonna

755
00:37:21.039 --> 00:37:21.880
<v Speaker 1>go great.

756
00:37:22.320 --> 00:37:24.920
<v Speaker 4>We really again, I agree with you, and FDD is

757
00:37:24.960 --> 00:37:27.599
<v Speaker 4>extremely pro Israel, and there's you know, and people are

758
00:37:27.719 --> 00:37:30.280
<v Speaker 4>very exercised on social media about this development. But I

759
00:37:30.320 --> 00:37:32.000
<v Speaker 4>think the reason why I wanted to raise it because

760
00:37:32.039 --> 00:37:35.559
<v Speaker 4>I think, you know, someone like myself who's been really

761
00:37:35.599 --> 00:37:37.760
<v Speaker 4>critical that these guys don't listen to anybody. Well, now

762
00:37:37.800 --> 00:37:39.719
<v Speaker 4>they're bringing in an expert, so now we're gonna be

763
00:37:39.760 --> 00:37:43.719
<v Speaker 4>critical again. It's kind of funny. So I think it's honest.

764
00:37:43.840 --> 00:37:45.079
<v Speaker 4>I think it's good that I.

765
00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:46.960
<v Speaker 1>Think they need to see the writing on the wall

766
00:37:47.199 --> 00:37:49.840
<v Speaker 1>and see the reality of what's going on, and if

767
00:37:49.880 --> 00:37:52.440
<v Speaker 1>you're really serious about making a deal. You're gonna have

768
00:37:52.519 --> 00:37:55.159
<v Speaker 1>to give up some concessions because we fucking broke it

769
00:37:55.280 --> 00:37:57.800
<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna have to buy it at some point

770
00:37:57.639 --> 00:37:59.960
<v Speaker 1>that February twenty seven to straight the horror moves well

771
00:38:00.119 --> 00:38:04.400
<v Speaker 1>is operating fine. Gas was cheap, spirit Ana Lines was

772
00:38:04.440 --> 00:38:07.960
<v Speaker 1>still in business. Your summer travel this year is not

773
00:38:08.000 --> 00:38:10.400
<v Speaker 1>gonna be as expensive. It wasn't gonna be as expensive

774
00:38:10.400 --> 00:38:13.039
<v Speaker 1>as it is gonna be now. So, like there's real effects,

775
00:38:13.039 --> 00:38:16.880
<v Speaker 1>and like we're barely feeling it in America frankly, you know,

776
00:38:17.119 --> 00:38:18.880
<v Speaker 1>a West Coast maybe a little bit more in terms

777
00:38:18.880 --> 00:38:21.320
<v Speaker 1>of gas prices, but you know, we're seeing the effects

778
00:38:21.360 --> 00:38:23.239
<v Speaker 1>on it. And yeah, like the fake stock market can

779
00:38:23.320 --> 00:38:25.760
<v Speaker 1>keep going up. At some point that bottom is gonna

780
00:38:25.760 --> 00:38:29.199
<v Speaker 1>fall out as well if this keeps going. So I

781
00:38:29.199 --> 00:38:31.840
<v Speaker 1>don't know if bringing in another hardliner who's not gonna

782
00:38:31.840 --> 00:38:34.320
<v Speaker 1>listen to reason is exactly a smart move. I think

783
00:38:34.360 --> 00:38:35.840
<v Speaker 1>we need to have grown ups in the room that

784
00:38:35.840 --> 00:38:39.199
<v Speaker 1>are gonna make real deal. Uh, just look at what

785
00:38:39.280 --> 00:38:41.000
<v Speaker 1>the writing is on the wall, Like, just look at

786
00:38:41.039 --> 00:38:43.679
<v Speaker 1>what the reality of the situation is and how we

787
00:38:43.760 --> 00:38:44.840
<v Speaker 1>fucked it up so badly.

788
00:38:45.039 --> 00:38:46.119
<v Speaker 4>But that's never gonna happen.

789
00:38:46.159 --> 00:38:48.519
<v Speaker 1>This is and it's never gonna happen. Then we're still

790
00:38:48.559 --> 00:38:51.119
<v Speaker 1>gonna have this. They're gonna have this issue.

791
00:38:50.719 --> 00:38:52.519
<v Speaker 4>But you can't. You're not gonna get bringing anyone with

792
00:38:52.559 --> 00:38:54.320
<v Speaker 4>anything other than the same deal.

793
00:38:54.440 --> 00:38:57.199
<v Speaker 1>So like our everything's gonna go up more money, inflation's

794
00:38:57.239 --> 00:38:59.199
<v Speaker 1>gonna go up, and we're gonna feel it at home,

795
00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:01.079
<v Speaker 1>our partners and the golf are going to feel it

796
00:39:01.079 --> 00:39:03.119
<v Speaker 1>even more. I think Saudi Arabia's economy is going to

797
00:39:03.159 --> 00:39:06.760
<v Speaker 1>retract by eight percent as well as like Ua too,

798
00:39:06.840 --> 00:39:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Like all the golf countries are getting smoked right now,

799
00:39:10.039 --> 00:39:12.159
<v Speaker 1>so wolf, you know, which means they're gonna stop buying

800
00:39:12.159 --> 00:39:16.119
<v Speaker 1>our weapons. Like there's gonna be reverberations to this, and

801
00:39:16.239 --> 00:39:19.559
<v Speaker 1>it ran frankly, I remember me and Mick were talking

802
00:39:19.599 --> 00:39:21.800
<v Speaker 1>about it before it went popped off, where like Iran's

803
00:39:21.960 --> 00:39:24.880
<v Speaker 1>was at its weak as it's ever been right now,

804
00:39:26.760 --> 00:39:28.639
<v Speaker 1>as pretty as strong as they're ever going to get

805
00:39:28.719 --> 00:39:32.079
<v Speaker 1>because they're squeezing the straight at hormoos and the money's stopped.

806
00:39:32.159 --> 00:39:35.320
<v Speaker 1>It's the money has stopped flowing and that's just the

807
00:39:35.360 --> 00:39:37.400
<v Speaker 1>reality of it. So unless we.

808
00:39:37.360 --> 00:39:40.159
<v Speaker 3>Get charging up to two million dollars per transit per

809
00:39:40.239 --> 00:39:42.639
<v Speaker 3>ship through the straits up to you as a ceiling.

810
00:39:42.920 --> 00:39:44.440
<v Speaker 3>But the interesting thing on that is the way they're

811
00:39:44.440 --> 00:39:48.119
<v Speaker 3>receiving that money is through things like default swaps, in

812
00:39:48.280 --> 00:39:53.280
<v Speaker 3>kind payments, bartering like grain for grain for oil. They're

813
00:39:53.360 --> 00:39:56.599
<v Speaker 3>using a lot of crypto and these like specialized payment

814
00:39:56.599 --> 00:40:00.480
<v Speaker 3>offset structures are really fascinatingly complex, and they're get money

815
00:40:00.480 --> 00:40:00.719
<v Speaker 3>with that.

816
00:40:00.760 --> 00:40:02.199
<v Speaker 1>Now, Dels, it doesn't matter.

817
00:40:03.039 --> 00:40:04.920
<v Speaker 3>So that's actually what caused the two thousand and seven

818
00:40:05.239 --> 00:40:08.639
<v Speaker 3>crash in the United States. Yeah, basically for like insured

819
00:40:08.760 --> 00:40:11.000
<v Speaker 3>transactions of transactions, if you want to think of it

820
00:40:11.039 --> 00:40:13.280
<v Speaker 3>that way, right, So if they don't get their oil

821
00:40:13.360 --> 00:40:14.880
<v Speaker 3>or they don't get their money, they actually get paid

822
00:40:14.880 --> 00:40:17.559
<v Speaker 3>a secondary payment because of the way this thing is structured.

823
00:40:17.800 --> 00:40:19.320
<v Speaker 3>So they're going to get their money no matter what,

824
00:40:19.440 --> 00:40:21.599
<v Speaker 3>and they're getting it in bank accounts outside of Iran,

825
00:40:21.920 --> 00:40:24.480
<v Speaker 3>so they're getting money. So even if the US stops

826
00:40:24.719 --> 00:40:28.119
<v Speaker 3>Iran from exporting oil, Iran is still benefiting because, like

827
00:40:28.119 --> 00:40:30.480
<v Speaker 3>you said, the straits have been closed since Feber twenty seventh,

828
00:40:30.480 --> 00:40:34.000
<v Speaker 3>early the twenty eighth, So our closure of the straits

829
00:40:34.280 --> 00:40:37.599
<v Speaker 3>is actually enriching Iran, which is I think very important

830
00:40:37.599 --> 00:40:39.679
<v Speaker 3>for people to like connect these two dots together.

831
00:40:41.159 --> 00:40:43.960
<v Speaker 4>Hey, can we I'm sorry, Ad, Just so.

832
00:40:44.119 --> 00:40:47.000
<v Speaker 2>One quick point on your question mark, Like, even if

833
00:40:47.079 --> 00:40:50.519
<v Speaker 2>you agree with the policy objectives of the administration, it's

834
00:40:50.519 --> 00:40:53.000
<v Speaker 2>still important to have people who have that expertise because

835
00:40:53.519 --> 00:40:55.440
<v Speaker 2>you need somebody in the room to say, hey, you

836
00:40:55.480 --> 00:40:58.079
<v Speaker 2>know the heat he's probably the most hardline person we

837
00:40:58.119 --> 00:41:00.159
<v Speaker 2>could have had, right, Like they might not even know that.

838
00:41:00.199 --> 00:41:04.840
<v Speaker 2>I'm not saying, but there's like detailed stuff on run

839
00:41:04.960 --> 00:41:06.719
<v Speaker 2>that you need somebody in the room to actually just

840
00:41:06.760 --> 00:41:10.400
<v Speaker 2>answer the question, you know, like is this gonna matter?

841
00:41:10.559 --> 00:41:14.760
<v Speaker 2>Like is the regime? Is financial economic hardship of the

842
00:41:14.800 --> 00:41:17.639
<v Speaker 2>regime gonna turn them at all? Even if you want

843
00:41:17.679 --> 00:41:20.039
<v Speaker 2>them to turn, even if you agree with the policy,

844
00:41:20.079 --> 00:41:22.360
<v Speaker 2>you have to have somebody that actually has a knowledge

845
00:41:22.400 --> 00:41:25.920
<v Speaker 2>base to go No, they're still going to be drinking

846
00:41:25.960 --> 00:41:28.159
<v Speaker 2>Johnny Walker black, right, and while the other people are

847
00:41:28.280 --> 00:41:30.960
<v Speaker 2>outside their you know, palace, are starving at at I mean,

848
00:41:31.000 --> 00:41:33.880
<v Speaker 2>that's the way regimes work, right. I'm not saying that's truth,

849
00:41:33.920 --> 00:41:36.000
<v Speaker 2>but you need somebody to be able to know that

850
00:41:36.320 --> 00:41:38.719
<v Speaker 2>so that if you try to go down a policy

851
00:41:38.800 --> 00:41:41.800
<v Speaker 2>route that you have at least somebody in the room

852
00:41:41.800 --> 00:41:42.679
<v Speaker 2>that can tell you where it's going.

853
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:45.400
<v Speaker 4>To work, even if you know the first time around,

854
00:41:45.400 --> 00:41:47.599
<v Speaker 4>this is a running or this is a running negotiating behavior,

855
00:41:47.599 --> 00:41:49.480
<v Speaker 4>this is the history of how they do things, et cetera,

856
00:41:49.480 --> 00:41:52.239
<v Speaker 4>et cetera. I mean, I just think Kushner and Wick

857
00:41:52.280 --> 00:41:55.360
<v Speaker 4>offered just complete utter boobs and I can't even imagine

858
00:41:55.360 --> 00:41:57.679
<v Speaker 4>that they're involved in this thing after they've fouled up

859
00:41:57.800 --> 00:42:00.320
<v Speaker 4>Ukraine screwed up the whole Gaza thing as well. I mean,

860
00:42:00.320 --> 00:42:02.639
<v Speaker 4>they got a cease fire deal, nothing else. And so

861
00:42:03.480 --> 00:42:05.159
<v Speaker 4>I do think I agree with you it's it's probably

862
00:42:05.239 --> 00:42:07.519
<v Speaker 4>a good thing. But let me one thing that.

863
00:42:07.599 --> 00:42:10.079
<v Speaker 1>Had Palestinian citizens are just like getting smoked by the

864
00:42:10.119 --> 00:42:12.840
<v Speaker 1>way nine year old girls and the like. Just if

865
00:42:12.880 --> 00:42:15.800
<v Speaker 1>I want that for the record, thanks D No problem,

866
00:42:15.920 --> 00:42:16.400
<v Speaker 1>my pleasure.

867
00:42:16.760 --> 00:42:20.280
<v Speaker 4>So if we're under the assumption, and I think we

868
00:42:20.320 --> 00:42:22.360
<v Speaker 4>probably agree that it's a it's a I don't know

869
00:42:22.360 --> 00:42:24.480
<v Speaker 4>if it's a likelihood a strong possibility that there is

870
00:42:24.519 --> 00:42:28.119
<v Speaker 4>going to be renewed military action, Let's talk about Iranian response,

871
00:42:29.119 --> 00:42:31.039
<v Speaker 4>because one of the things that I think that that

872
00:42:31.119 --> 00:42:34.199
<v Speaker 4>we have not seen is actually the true nature of

873
00:42:34.239 --> 00:42:38.079
<v Speaker 4>Iranian and asymmetric warfare. Perhaps obviously we saw them using drones,

874
00:42:38.880 --> 00:42:41.199
<v Speaker 4>perhaps there's been cyberactivity we don't know about, but I

875
00:42:41.199 --> 00:42:43.239
<v Speaker 4>don't think they seem to have turned off up their

876
00:42:43.320 --> 00:42:46.480
<v Speaker 4>terrorist apparatus as globally. So what is what are some

877
00:42:46.519 --> 00:42:49.159
<v Speaker 4>of the things you all are looking for, uh if

878
00:42:49.199 --> 00:42:51.960
<v Speaker 4>and and again if any, because if we do these

879
00:42:52.039 --> 00:42:55.519
<v Speaker 4>kind of infrastructure strikes, I think that is an escalation

880
00:42:55.559 --> 00:42:58.079
<v Speaker 4>on the US part. And so how do how do

881
00:42:58.119 --> 00:43:02.119
<v Speaker 4>the Iranians uh reciprocate? Escalate? What do they do? What

882
00:43:02.159 --> 00:43:03.840
<v Speaker 4>are some of the things that we haven't seen yet

883
00:43:04.000 --> 00:43:06.760
<v Speaker 4>that are kind of in your that you're thinking about.

884
00:43:07.239 --> 00:43:10.719
<v Speaker 3>So there's something new going on right now? Yeah, yeah,

885
00:43:10.760 --> 00:43:12.519
<v Speaker 3>So in Lebanon this is the place to look. Is

886
00:43:12.559 --> 00:43:14.679
<v Speaker 3>kind of their their test bed for stuff before they

887
00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:17.239
<v Speaker 3>use it large scale or at least to attribute to

888
00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:19.320
<v Speaker 3>the regime. So right now, I think it was yesterday

889
00:43:19.719 --> 00:43:24.159
<v Speaker 3>Hezbola first used a fifteen kilometer fiber optic cable attached

890
00:43:24.159 --> 00:43:27.920
<v Speaker 3>to a drone espe exactly. So that's a new development

891
00:43:27.920 --> 00:43:29.840
<v Speaker 3>for Hebola, not a new development in warfare. They've been

892
00:43:29.920 --> 00:43:31.679
<v Speaker 3>using that in Ukraine, but the fact that it's now

893
00:43:31.719 --> 00:43:35.280
<v Speaker 3>happening in Lebanon indicates to me that someone's testing this

894
00:43:35.320 --> 00:43:37.639
<v Speaker 3>out to see how does this work against a similar

895
00:43:37.679 --> 00:43:40.119
<v Speaker 3>type of adversary that would be used against the United States.

896
00:43:40.320 --> 00:43:42.760
<v Speaker 3>Because Israel and the US share intelligence, they share air

897
00:43:42.760 --> 00:43:45.039
<v Speaker 3>defense information and a lot of other things, so they're

898
00:43:45.039 --> 00:43:47.119
<v Speaker 3>probably testing it on the Israelis first to see what

899
00:43:47.280 --> 00:43:49.400
<v Speaker 3>is the reaction to this, how do they counter it,

900
00:43:49.440 --> 00:43:52.400
<v Speaker 3>what's what to expect. Then when the US comes closer

901
00:43:52.400 --> 00:43:55.000
<v Speaker 3>to the regime's shoreline, the regime will probably begin using this.

902
00:43:55.000 --> 00:43:57.119
<v Speaker 3>Fifteen kilometers is a long way, right, and it can

903
00:43:57.159 --> 00:43:57.719
<v Speaker 3>probably make.

904
00:43:57.719 --> 00:43:59.599
<v Speaker 4>A doctor that almost got hit. There was a there

905
00:43:59.599 --> 00:44:02.199
<v Speaker 4>was a thing as an ex post of it was

906
00:44:02.239 --> 00:44:04.519
<v Speaker 4>pretty scary, and I think some of really idea of

907
00:44:04.559 --> 00:44:06.960
<v Speaker 4>soldiers have been killed recently with from the fp drone.

908
00:44:07.000 --> 00:44:08.440
<v Speaker 4>That's scary right there.

909
00:44:08.639 --> 00:44:10.679
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, a nineteen year old soldier was just killed with one,

910
00:44:10.800 --> 00:44:13.639
<v Speaker 3>and Hesbola released a really sleek propaganda video of it

911
00:44:13.719 --> 00:44:16.519
<v Speaker 3>showing how it happened. I mean that does put fear

912
00:44:16.599 --> 00:44:19.920
<v Speaker 3>into the soldiers. I mean that's morale is a component

913
00:44:19.920 --> 00:44:23.480
<v Speaker 3>of warfare. Information is a domain of warfare, and Hesbela

914
00:44:23.559 --> 00:44:25.719
<v Speaker 3>and Iran are very good at using information as a

915
00:44:25.719 --> 00:44:28.199
<v Speaker 3>domain of warfare. And I think, as you mentioned, even

916
00:44:28.199 --> 00:44:31.559
<v Speaker 3>if we haven't seen cyber attacks happening publicly. First of all,

917
00:44:31.559 --> 00:44:34.679
<v Speaker 3>they're already happening. Yes, they're happening without being publicized, because

918
00:44:34.679 --> 00:44:36.719
<v Speaker 3>it doesn't look good if we publicize it's happening to us.

919
00:44:37.039 --> 00:44:39.119
<v Speaker 3>Second of all, they have certain cyber tools that are

920
00:44:39.159 --> 00:44:42.159
<v Speaker 3>extremely advanced. They are a state actor, a state adversary

921
00:44:42.559 --> 00:44:46.880
<v Speaker 3>with a lot of very sophisticated things that zero day technology.

922
00:44:47.039 --> 00:44:48.960
<v Speaker 3>The moment you use it, it's no longer as effective,

923
00:44:48.960 --> 00:44:50.639
<v Speaker 3>but if you wait to the right moment to use it,

924
00:44:50.639 --> 00:44:53.519
<v Speaker 3>it is extremely effective. And they've already shown since two

925
00:44:53.559 --> 00:44:55.400
<v Speaker 3>thousand and nine that they've been able to hit targets

926
00:44:55.400 --> 00:44:58.239
<v Speaker 3>inside the United States. They took down the entire financial

927
00:44:58.239 --> 00:45:02.000
<v Speaker 3>system of the State of Georgia and states once they

928
00:45:02.039 --> 00:45:04.360
<v Speaker 3>did that with two guys. They've done some other things

929
00:45:04.360 --> 00:45:06.880
<v Speaker 3>that were very over the top, and as Mickey mentioned,

930
00:45:06.880 --> 00:45:09.760
<v Speaker 3>I wrote a book about this. But they're very advanced

931
00:45:09.800 --> 00:45:12.480
<v Speaker 3>in a way that we sometimes don't respect enough. You

932
00:45:12.559 --> 00:45:14.320
<v Speaker 3>have to respect your enemy to be able to defeat

933
00:45:14.360 --> 00:45:16.800
<v Speaker 3>them well, because you have to know exactly how are

934
00:45:16.800 --> 00:45:18.480
<v Speaker 3>they willing to use this thing, how far are they

935
00:45:18.480 --> 00:45:20.239
<v Speaker 3>willing to go? And we can't look at them and

936
00:45:20.280 --> 00:45:22.800
<v Speaker 3>be like, oh, these guys running around with sticks and shouting,

937
00:45:22.840 --> 00:45:24.599
<v Speaker 3>and like, maybe that's true. But if they're really good

938
00:45:24.599 --> 00:45:26.360
<v Speaker 3>at using those sticks and really good at shouting, I

939
00:45:26.400 --> 00:45:28.039
<v Speaker 3>need to respect that fact figure out a way to

940
00:45:28.039 --> 00:45:30.639
<v Speaker 3>stop it from harming us, right, because it can harm us,

941
00:45:30.800 --> 00:45:34.119
<v Speaker 3>especially in a democracy where people here affect what happens

942
00:45:34.159 --> 00:45:37.280
<v Speaker 3>over there because of how they view things at home. Right,

943
00:45:37.719 --> 00:45:40.679
<v Speaker 3>and on the military front, kinetically, we haven't seen them

944
00:45:40.760 --> 00:45:43.320
<v Speaker 3>using artillery, direct fire weapons. We haven't seen them doing

945
00:45:43.360 --> 00:45:46.159
<v Speaker 3>any kind of squad, battalion or division level operations yet.

946
00:45:46.480 --> 00:45:49.000
<v Speaker 3>Any of these things that forty percent of their military

947
00:45:49.039 --> 00:45:52.400
<v Speaker 3>forces are designed around those capabilities, we haven't seen them yet.

948
00:45:52.920 --> 00:45:55.079
<v Speaker 3>The last time we saw those used was twenty sixteen

949
00:45:55.119 --> 00:45:58.920
<v Speaker 3>in Syria when they fought against ISIS and defeated large,

950
00:45:59.039 --> 00:46:02.360
<v Speaker 3>large pockets of ice as fighters in northern and northwestern

951
00:46:02.400 --> 00:46:06.679
<v Speaker 3>Syria at using battalion sized elements partnered up with Syrian

952
00:46:06.760 --> 00:46:09.000
<v Speaker 3>partner forces and the National Defense Forces, which was their

953
00:46:09.000 --> 00:46:11.280
<v Speaker 3>surrogate force inside of Syria that was a non state force.

954
00:46:11.840 --> 00:46:14.519
<v Speaker 3>So we've seen them do that about ten years ago.

955
00:46:14.639 --> 00:46:16.519
<v Speaker 3>A lot of the veterans from that time are now

956
00:46:16.639 --> 00:46:19.400
<v Speaker 3>mid level field great officers and the IRGC ground forces

957
00:46:20.039 --> 00:46:23.719
<v Speaker 3>who are capable and possibly ready to use these tactics

958
00:46:23.800 --> 00:46:26.519
<v Speaker 3>against the United States, especially against our partners. I feel

959
00:46:26.519 --> 00:46:29.119
<v Speaker 3>looking at Iraq, you know, we have the Iraqi forces

960
00:46:29.159 --> 00:46:32.360
<v Speaker 3>that we trained, counter terrorism forces and regular forces that

961
00:46:32.440 --> 00:46:35.920
<v Speaker 3>look a lot like the way that fighters fight in Syria.

962
00:46:36.239 --> 00:46:38.840
<v Speaker 3>So there's the PMF that has over two hundred thousand

963
00:46:38.880 --> 00:46:40.760
<v Speaker 3>fighters that are on Iran side that have not really

964
00:46:40.800 --> 00:46:43.280
<v Speaker 3>engaged very much in a meaningful way against US. They've

965
00:46:43.280 --> 00:46:46.039
<v Speaker 3>done a couple of things, especially Kataid Hezbola, but most

966
00:46:46.039 --> 00:46:49.239
<v Speaker 3>of them have not really awakened yet, so to say. So,

967
00:46:49.320 --> 00:46:52.519
<v Speaker 3>there's a lot of forces at rest in the area

968
00:46:52.559 --> 00:46:54.800
<v Speaker 3>that Iran has not pressed the go button on yet.

969
00:46:55.280 --> 00:46:57.519
<v Speaker 3>And I'm sure the Pentagon planners are aware of this obviously,

970
00:46:57.559 --> 00:46:59.039
<v Speaker 3>but this is just something for the public to be

971
00:46:59.400 --> 00:47:01.840
<v Speaker 3>looking at. Iran has really actually held back a lot.

972
00:47:01.840 --> 00:47:06.039
<v Speaker 3>They've been using mostly a standoff strategy, so is the US.

973
00:47:06.519 --> 00:47:08.960
<v Speaker 3>But once one side shifts to a different strategy and

974
00:47:09.000 --> 00:47:11.159
<v Speaker 3>more stand in strategy, you're going to see the other

975
00:47:11.199 --> 00:47:12.039
<v Speaker 3>side respond to that.

976
00:47:13.559 --> 00:47:15.960
<v Speaker 2>So, I mean, I know you don't know exactly, but

977
00:47:16.840 --> 00:47:24.719
<v Speaker 2>if we're shifting from almost completely military targets to civilian

978
00:47:24.719 --> 00:47:27.280
<v Speaker 2>infrastructure at least the ones that we can hit because

979
00:47:27.280 --> 00:47:29.960
<v Speaker 2>they have some nexus. Do you think the regime would

980
00:47:29.960 --> 00:47:36.320
<v Speaker 2>then take those previously unused options that you just described

981
00:47:37.039 --> 00:47:41.079
<v Speaker 2>and do them, Like, could we see direct kind of

982
00:47:41.559 --> 00:47:44.280
<v Speaker 2>terrorist attacks in the United States based on the fact

983
00:47:44.280 --> 00:47:47.280
<v Speaker 2>that we destroyed a bunch of bridges and hit I

984
00:47:47.280 --> 00:47:50.440
<v Speaker 2>think there's like three major power plants that would really

985
00:47:51.320 --> 00:47:54.440
<v Speaker 2>put the country into darkness. And of course these power plants,

986
00:47:54.480 --> 00:48:01.639
<v Speaker 2>I mean everybody understands, like that's also water purification, hospital respirators.

987
00:48:01.880 --> 00:48:04.239
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is when you take the power out

988
00:48:04.280 --> 00:48:06.920
<v Speaker 2>of any modern country, you're killing a lot of people. Yeah, yeah,

989
00:48:06.920 --> 00:48:11.000
<v Speaker 2>a lot of civilians. Right, So again I don't expect

990
00:48:11.000 --> 00:48:14.800
<v Speaker 2>you know, for sure, do you think that would be

991
00:48:14.840 --> 00:48:17.159
<v Speaker 2>to the level what they're going to take some extraordinary

992
00:48:17.239 --> 00:48:21.039
<v Speaker 2>steps knowing that it's going to escalate this, but they'll

993
00:48:21.119 --> 00:48:23.719
<v Speaker 2>view this as we escalated it first, therefore they're going

994
00:48:23.760 --> 00:48:24.119
<v Speaker 2>down there.

995
00:48:25.159 --> 00:48:27.159
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And actually they've done this before. They've demonstrated that

996
00:48:27.199 --> 00:48:29.559
<v Speaker 3>this is the way that they kind of respond to escalations.

997
00:48:29.639 --> 00:48:33.760
<v Speaker 3>For example, twenty twelve, when Israel started assassinating nuclear scientists

998
00:48:33.800 --> 00:48:37.960
<v Speaker 3>inside and outside of Iran, there was a very measured

999
00:48:38.079 --> 00:48:41.559
<v Speaker 3>escalation on the Iranian side attacking Israeli diplomats using the

1000
00:48:41.599 --> 00:48:46.039
<v Speaker 3>exact same weapon style that Israel used, almost to telegraph

1001
00:48:46.039 --> 00:48:48.280
<v Speaker 3>without saying that this is in response to what you did,

1002
00:48:48.719 --> 00:48:51.480
<v Speaker 3>rather than some new thing. They've also done to the

1003
00:48:51.599 --> 00:48:54.760
<v Speaker 3>United States in twenty twenty January when we killed Solmani,

1004
00:48:55.159 --> 00:48:57.559
<v Speaker 3>then Iran struck all the side airbase, and the way

1005
00:48:57.599 --> 00:49:00.239
<v Speaker 3>that they did these things was very telegraphed to kind

1006
00:49:00.239 --> 00:49:02.639
<v Speaker 3>of look, you know, tit for tat. The question is

1007
00:49:02.639 --> 00:49:04.800
<v Speaker 3>are they going to still operate with that because all

1008
00:49:04.840 --> 00:49:06.679
<v Speaker 3>the people that made those decisions to behave that way

1009
00:49:06.679 --> 00:49:09.840
<v Speaker 3>are dead now, so we're left with with new decision

1010
00:49:09.880 --> 00:49:12.079
<v Speaker 3>makers and new thinkers, and even the ones that have

1011
00:49:12.119 --> 00:49:14.440
<v Speaker 3>survived were not the ones that were in those positions previously.

1012
00:49:14.519 --> 00:49:17.599
<v Speaker 3>You know, Vahiti is a notorious hardliner who's very much

1013
00:49:17.639 --> 00:49:20.320
<v Speaker 3>against any kind of capitulation at all. He may see

1014
00:49:20.320 --> 00:49:22.960
<v Speaker 3>this as an opportunity to prove that they have some strength.

1015
00:49:23.280 --> 00:49:26.039
<v Speaker 3>There's actually an interesting statement by a field grade IRGC

1016
00:49:26.119 --> 00:49:27.840
<v Speaker 3>commander in the western part of the country, which is

1017
00:49:27.840 --> 00:49:31.079
<v Speaker 3>a very important Iraqi border area, mentioning that the US

1018
00:49:31.119 --> 00:49:33.639
<v Speaker 3>has not used ground forces yet and Iran invites them

1019
00:49:33.639 --> 00:49:37.719
<v Speaker 3>to use them because the Irunni forces have not shown

1020
00:49:37.760 --> 00:49:39.599
<v Speaker 3>what they're capable of yet. And I think that's true

1021
00:49:40.119 --> 00:49:42.599
<v Speaker 3>because as we were mentioning, like forty to sixty percent

1022
00:49:42.639 --> 00:49:44.519
<v Speaker 3>of their forces have not even been used yet because

1023
00:49:44.519 --> 00:49:47.599
<v Speaker 3>they're ground forces. So the way they use them in

1024
00:49:47.639 --> 00:49:49.800
<v Speaker 3>nineteen eighty to eighty eight was not in a way

1025
00:49:49.800 --> 00:49:53.159
<v Speaker 3>that we would like, and that is human waves, suicide missions,

1026
00:49:53.679 --> 00:49:56.119
<v Speaker 3>you know, basically taking the whole building down with them

1027
00:49:56.440 --> 00:49:58.480
<v Speaker 3>if they're going down. So I'd be very concerned about

1028
00:49:58.559 --> 00:50:01.719
<v Speaker 3>how they do escalate or if cooler heads will prevail

1029
00:50:01.760 --> 00:50:04.480
<v Speaker 3>at the Supreme National Security Council, which is where some

1030
00:50:04.559 --> 00:50:07.039
<v Speaker 3>of the quote unquote moderates are out. They're not really moderate,

1031
00:50:07.039 --> 00:50:10.559
<v Speaker 3>but relatively speaking to Bahiti, it depends on who's actually

1032
00:50:10.599 --> 00:50:12.480
<v Speaker 3>holding the levers right now in Iran, and I think

1033
00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:15.280
<v Speaker 3>the Iranian government doesn't even know who actually is making

1034
00:50:15.280 --> 00:50:16.280
<v Speaker 3>those decisions right now.

1035
00:50:17.800 --> 00:50:21.440
<v Speaker 4>But on this, on this discussion, now, you know, let's

1036
00:50:21.519 --> 00:50:24.159
<v Speaker 4>pretend that we were sitting around the National Security Council.

1037
00:50:24.199 --> 00:50:26.280
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I think the argument would be, well, okay,

1038
00:50:26.400 --> 00:50:28.800
<v Speaker 4>this doesn't seem like the right course of action in

1039
00:50:28.880 --> 00:50:31.960
<v Speaker 4>terms of the US escalating for infrastructure strikes. Everything we've

1040
00:50:32.000 --> 00:50:34.599
<v Speaker 4>just talked about. Does not suggest it's going to be effective.

1041
00:50:34.599 --> 00:50:38.960
<v Speaker 4>It could The response could be quite significant. Yeah, it

1042
00:50:38.960 --> 00:50:41.000
<v Speaker 4>seems like we're going to I mean, so you know,

1043
00:50:41.639 --> 00:50:44.480
<v Speaker 4>it still seems like we're going down this path. Does

1044
00:50:44.519 --> 00:50:47.320
<v Speaker 4>this say that there is no NSC process, which seems

1045
00:50:47.400 --> 00:50:49.320
<v Speaker 4>possibly to be the case, or who is who has

1046
00:50:49.400 --> 00:50:52.559
<v Speaker 4>the who is the influential member and the national security

1047
00:50:52.559 --> 00:50:55.079
<v Speaker 4>team who would argue for such a thing, and presumably

1048
00:50:55.119 --> 00:50:57.159
<v Speaker 4>that would be Pete hag Seth, the Secretary of Defense.

1049
00:50:58.440 --> 00:51:01.119
<v Speaker 4>But again I'm you know, I mean, there are going

1050
00:51:01.159 --> 00:51:02.800
<v Speaker 4>there is going to be a sit room meeting with

1051
00:51:02.880 --> 00:51:06.400
<v Speaker 4>the you know, at the Principals Committee level, with probably

1052
00:51:06.519 --> 00:51:12.480
<v Speaker 4>you know, Ratcliffe, Caine, heg Seth, and Rubio amongst just

1053
00:51:12.519 --> 00:51:16.679
<v Speaker 4>a couple others. Who's arguing for doing this because you know,

1054
00:51:16.760 --> 00:51:18.960
<v Speaker 4>again this is just four of us sitting around kind

1055
00:51:18.960 --> 00:51:22.320
<v Speaker 4>of you know, John about this. But you know, we're

1056
00:51:22.440 --> 00:51:25.400
<v Speaker 4>smart enough in the national security sphere to kind of

1057
00:51:25.480 --> 00:51:27.599
<v Speaker 4>put that those cautionary flags up. But I don't know

1058
00:51:27.599 --> 00:51:30.880
<v Speaker 4>if anyone's going to have this conversation with the president.

1059
00:51:33.639 --> 00:51:35.599
<v Speaker 2>Good question. I mean, this is I mean, what we're

1060
00:51:35.599 --> 00:51:38.360
<v Speaker 2>doing right now is very similar to what I experience

1061
00:51:38.440 --> 00:51:42.039
<v Speaker 2>when I was over the NSC. It's just conversations. We're

1062
00:51:42.039 --> 00:51:44.159
<v Speaker 2>all going towards a specific end when you want us

1063
00:51:44.239 --> 00:51:47.360
<v Speaker 2>policy to succeed, but we go down several routes, and

1064
00:51:47.679 --> 00:51:51.519
<v Speaker 2>oft the time it's the it's the intelligence community that

1065
00:51:51.639 --> 00:51:53.400
<v Speaker 2>everybody turns to you and says, well, is that going

1066
00:51:53.480 --> 00:51:55.559
<v Speaker 2>to work? Yeah, they're not supposed to be policy, but

1067
00:51:55.559 --> 00:51:57.800
<v Speaker 2>they're also supposed to go, nah, it's not going to work.

1068
00:51:58.000 --> 00:52:00.159
<v Speaker 2>Why And then they tell you, you know, and then you go, hey,

1069
00:52:00.239 --> 00:52:02.320
<v Speaker 2>let's go let's go this path instead of that path,

1070
00:52:02.360 --> 00:52:04.920
<v Speaker 2>because and then by the time it gets to the

1071
00:52:04.920 --> 00:52:07.960
<v Speaker 2>principals level, a lot of these issues have already been

1072
00:52:07.960 --> 00:52:10.920
<v Speaker 2>worked out because if if everything starts the top, they

1073
00:52:10.920 --> 00:52:12.880
<v Speaker 2>don't want to hear no, so they say, this is

1074
00:52:12.920 --> 00:52:14.760
<v Speaker 2>what I think is going to work. Do it, and

1075
00:52:14.800 --> 00:52:17.119
<v Speaker 2>so then they go down that road a long way

1076
00:52:17.400 --> 00:52:20.719
<v Speaker 2>before even the principle realizes, oh crap, that didn't work

1077
00:52:21.159 --> 00:52:24.320
<v Speaker 2>right if it's if it's staffed the right way. As

1078
00:52:24.320 --> 00:52:27.199
<v Speaker 2>soon as that's brought up, especially with a you know,

1079
00:52:27.199 --> 00:52:29.800
<v Speaker 2>a president that's okay with being told, you know, that's

1080
00:52:29.800 --> 00:52:33.519
<v Speaker 2>the great idea, it's our that they've already come up

1081
00:52:33.559 --> 00:52:35.920
<v Speaker 2>with the pasts that are most likely to work and

1082
00:52:35.960 --> 00:52:37.960
<v Speaker 2>the past that mostly an not going to work. And

1083
00:52:38.000 --> 00:52:40.880
<v Speaker 2>it's done. It's done at a senior level, but you know,

1084
00:52:41.000 --> 00:52:43.639
<v Speaker 2>compared to the president junior level, right, And that this

1085
00:52:43.719 --> 00:52:45.159
<v Speaker 2>is how the discussion general.

1086
00:52:45.000 --> 00:52:47.519
<v Speaker 4>Goes describing exactly how this is kind of fast backwards,

1087
00:52:47.559 --> 00:52:49.239
<v Speaker 4>that that this is a top down that's how.

1088
00:52:49.159 --> 00:52:52.800
<v Speaker 1>It normally works, right, like normally yeah, right, the lower

1089
00:52:52.880 --> 00:52:55.400
<v Speaker 1>levels it comes up got into the Iran thing not

1090
00:52:55.559 --> 00:52:57.599
<v Speaker 1>in a normal way. That because the NSC has been

1091
00:52:57.599 --> 00:52:59.679
<v Speaker 1>gutted and it was six guys in a room talking

1092
00:52:59.679 --> 00:53:01.400
<v Speaker 1>about like, yeah, let's do it. Why not?

1093
00:53:01.920 --> 00:53:04.880
<v Speaker 4>All of Trump's decision making seems to be along these.

1094
00:53:04.760 --> 00:53:06.840
<v Speaker 1>Lines, Asiel said, it's okay to do it, let's do it.

1095
00:53:06.880 --> 00:53:08.559
<v Speaker 1>You know they're going to do it anyway, and we're

1096
00:53:08.599 --> 00:53:11.440
<v Speaker 1>just protecting ourselves. I guess, let's let's fucking start this.

1097
00:53:11.599 --> 00:53:14.840
<v Speaker 1>Warn Yeah, ruin the fucking world? Why not? You know?

1098
00:53:15.559 --> 00:53:18.679
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the best leadership that I've seen, and obviously

1099
00:53:18.760 --> 00:53:20.599
<v Speaker 2>I didn't work for Secretary of Madus is one of

1100
00:53:20.599 --> 00:53:24.559
<v Speaker 2>the I think greatest leaders of our generation is the

1101
00:53:24.639 --> 00:53:28.199
<v Speaker 2>leader doesn't say anything usually other than good morning, right,

1102
00:53:28.280 --> 00:53:31.119
<v Speaker 2>and then they listen to everybody, right, because if the

1103
00:53:31.199 --> 00:53:33.960
<v Speaker 2>if the leader starts off going this is what I think. Well,

1104
00:53:34.000 --> 00:53:36.880
<v Speaker 2>even in the most functional administrations, they go, well, shit,

1105
00:53:36.920 --> 00:53:38.760
<v Speaker 2>I guess he already made his mind up, right, So

1106
00:53:38.840 --> 00:53:42.199
<v Speaker 2>you don't want or you don't want the leader to

1107
00:53:42.679 --> 00:53:44.800
<v Speaker 2>lead with this is what I think we're going to do,

1108
00:53:44.840 --> 00:53:46.679
<v Speaker 2>because then everybody goes, Okay, well, I guess as we're

1109
00:53:46.679 --> 00:53:48.559
<v Speaker 2>going to do. I'm not I don't know. I'm not

1110
00:53:48.599 --> 00:53:51.800
<v Speaker 2>obviously in the room for what's going on now. But

1111
00:53:51.840 --> 00:53:54.639
<v Speaker 2>the most functional at every level I've seen the leader

1112
00:53:54.719 --> 00:53:57.159
<v Speaker 2>be is the one that you know, you got two

1113
00:53:57.199 --> 00:54:00.199
<v Speaker 2>ears in one mouth, right, So that's a story thing.

1114
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:02.440
<v Speaker 2>By the good way, it goes way back to say, now,

1115
00:54:02.719 --> 00:54:04.800
<v Speaker 2>just for those of you that are stoics out there,

1116
00:54:06.039 --> 00:54:09.199
<v Speaker 2>you got to listen and then and then people are

1117
00:54:09.199 --> 00:54:12.239
<v Speaker 2>more prone to give you their the straits gooop and

1118
00:54:12.280 --> 00:54:14.400
<v Speaker 2>then then based on what you hear, then you know,

1119
00:54:14.400 --> 00:54:16.239
<v Speaker 2>don't make the decision or what. But I don't know

1120
00:54:16.280 --> 00:54:18.800
<v Speaker 2>what's going on now, but they need that staffing. They

1121
00:54:18.840 --> 00:54:23.280
<v Speaker 2>need those professional diplomats, uniform military officers, not just the

1122
00:54:23.360 --> 00:54:28.880
<v Speaker 2>chairman and of course intelligence officers. Uh, they should all

1123
00:54:28.880 --> 00:54:32.360
<v Speaker 2>be at the NSC. They should be pushing obviously for

1124
00:54:32.519 --> 00:54:35.000
<v Speaker 2>the President's policies, but it has to be done in

1125
00:54:35.000 --> 00:54:37.000
<v Speaker 2>an educated, informed way.

1126
00:54:37.679 --> 00:54:38.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know.

1127
00:54:38.400 --> 00:54:40.599
<v Speaker 4>That's not good.

1128
00:54:40.840 --> 00:54:42.559
<v Speaker 2>We do need to talk before. I know we're getting

1129
00:54:42.559 --> 00:54:45.599
<v Speaker 2>closely at the time, but the withdrawal of US forces

1130
00:54:45.639 --> 00:54:48.639
<v Speaker 2>from Germany is I think, you know, there's so much

1131
00:54:48.679 --> 00:54:50.360
<v Speaker 2>to talk about, but that's important.

1132
00:54:51.800 --> 00:54:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's do it. I mean, it's crazy, obviously, and

1133
00:54:55.000 --> 00:54:58.119
<v Speaker 1>I'm a dirty, you know, hippie commedy scumbag, and I

1134
00:54:58.159 --> 00:55:01.599
<v Speaker 1>think it's crazy, you know what I mean? The fact

1135
00:55:01.599 --> 00:55:04.320
<v Speaker 1>that I think how we let like Eastern Europe and

1136
00:55:04.360 --> 00:55:06.559
<v Speaker 1>like just Ukraine like flapping the fucking win the way

1137
00:55:06.559 --> 00:55:11.000
<v Speaker 1>we do is unacceptable and like insane to me. I

1138
00:55:11.039 --> 00:55:15.559
<v Speaker 1>don't understand this, how this government, this administration operates, And

1139
00:55:15.559 --> 00:55:18.920
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to Russia and Ukraine, what the fuck

1140
00:55:19.000 --> 00:55:21.760
<v Speaker 1>is five thousand troops out of your Ramstein or wherever

1141
00:55:21.840 --> 00:55:24.159
<v Speaker 1>gonna do? I don't know. I don't know what the

1142
00:55:24.199 --> 00:55:26.400
<v Speaker 1>strategic play is, like why it makes sense or it

1143
00:55:26.440 --> 00:55:28.800
<v Speaker 1>just makes for a good fucking headline. I don't know.

1144
00:55:29.480 --> 00:55:30.320
<v Speaker 1>That's right. We're gonna do it.

1145
00:55:30.400 --> 00:55:32.840
<v Speaker 3>Last time, last administration, they were getting ready to do it.

1146
00:55:32.880 --> 00:55:36.239
<v Speaker 3>And then it extended across presidencies, which was then stopped.

1147
00:55:36.719 --> 00:55:40.199
<v Speaker 3>But five thousand troops is about one brigade combat team. Yeah,

1148
00:55:40.239 --> 00:55:42.599
<v Speaker 3>it may it may be a combat team, or it

1149
00:55:42.639 --> 00:55:44.599
<v Speaker 3>may be other forces that are that equal that number.

1150
00:55:44.639 --> 00:55:48.039
<v Speaker 3>We don't know. But uh, there's thirty six thousand US

1151
00:55:48.119 --> 00:55:52.039
<v Speaker 3>troops in Germany and one hundred k in Europe. So

1152
00:55:52.400 --> 00:55:55.119
<v Speaker 3>five thousand is definitely like a political statement more than

1153
00:55:55.119 --> 00:55:58.199
<v Speaker 3>a military strategic statement. You know, at least that's how

1154
00:55:58.199 --> 00:55:58.719
<v Speaker 3>I view it.

1155
00:55:59.039 --> 00:56:01.239
<v Speaker 2>But what if that could be an indicator what's going

1156
00:56:01.320 --> 00:56:01.679
<v Speaker 2>to happen?

1157
00:56:01.800 --> 00:56:05.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, like our allies and you know, well Trump then

1158
00:56:05.480 --> 00:56:08.280
<v Speaker 4>said that there's going to be more. And the reason

1159
00:56:08.320 --> 00:56:11.519
<v Speaker 4>why this gets so stupid is and everyone on this

1160
00:56:12.119 --> 00:56:16.559
<v Speaker 4>program knows this. You know, Germany as a logistics is

1161
00:56:16.639 --> 00:56:20.039
<v Speaker 4>massively important. It doesn't matter what the German chancellor says,

1162
00:56:20.360 --> 00:56:24.920
<v Speaker 4>it is irrelevant. Every so many things flow through several

1163
00:56:25.000 --> 00:56:28.719
<v Speaker 4>locations in Germany quietly that anyone who then argues, because

1164
00:56:28.719 --> 00:56:30.920
<v Speaker 4>you now and so people are making the argument we

1165
00:56:30.920 --> 00:56:34.480
<v Speaker 4>don't need them, that's insane for sent Common Africa, It's

1166
00:56:34.480 --> 00:56:36.880
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's preposterous. If you have half a fucking brain,

1167
00:56:37.920 --> 00:56:41.280
<v Speaker 4>everything goes through these places, including weird shit like fucking

1168
00:56:41.960 --> 00:56:44.800
<v Speaker 4>relays and satellites and all sorts of ISR stuff like

1169
00:56:44.920 --> 00:56:47.480
<v Speaker 4>it's crazy. So you can beat up the Germans all

1170
00:56:47.519 --> 00:56:50.079
<v Speaker 4>you want, but the idea of potentially pulling out and

1171
00:56:50.119 --> 00:56:53.000
<v Speaker 4>closing some of these locations makes no sense. That that

1172
00:56:53.079 --> 00:56:56.800
<v Speaker 4>means that we can't that's that's committing superpower suicide. Now,

1173
00:56:56.840 --> 00:56:59.559
<v Speaker 4>if you want to make a stupid political statement five thousand,

1174
00:56:59.559 --> 00:57:02.239
<v Speaker 4>if that's it, whatever, But the idea that because this

1175
00:57:02.360 --> 00:57:04.519
<v Speaker 4>is based on the notion that we don't need Germany,

1176
00:57:04.719 --> 00:57:06.079
<v Speaker 4>and that's nuts.

1177
00:57:06.519 --> 00:57:10.840
<v Speaker 2>It is nuts. Again, every uniform military person there's landstall.

1178
00:57:10.880 --> 00:57:13.679
<v Speaker 4>I mean, there's there's critical locations there that really matter.

1179
00:57:13.920 --> 00:57:16.639
<v Speaker 4>I mean everybody METAVACT goes to a certain location to

1180
00:57:16.639 --> 00:57:18.039
<v Speaker 4>get immediate traumacare.

1181
00:57:19.480 --> 00:57:21.920
<v Speaker 2>So I think you said it are exactly right, Mark,

1182
00:57:21.960 --> 00:57:25.199
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is we're not there one, there's nothing

1183
00:57:25.239 --> 00:57:27.599
<v Speaker 2>wrong since we're our NATO members to be there to

1184
00:57:27.679 --> 00:57:30.920
<v Speaker 2>support NATO, that is our thing. But even if you

1185
00:57:30.960 --> 00:57:33.360
<v Speaker 2>don't agree with that, we're there because it's in our

1186
00:57:33.400 --> 00:57:33.880
<v Speaker 2>own interest.

1187
00:57:33.920 --> 00:57:38.159
<v Speaker 4>It's period period, right, big time selfish interests.

1188
00:57:38.719 --> 00:57:42.440
<v Speaker 2>Yes, and when and then if they if they do,

1189
00:57:42.559 --> 00:57:44.480
<v Speaker 2>if this is an indicator, And you're right, maybe this

1190
00:57:44.519 --> 00:57:46.719
<v Speaker 2>is because Mertz said that he was getting embarrassed by

1191
00:57:46.719 --> 00:57:50.000
<v Speaker 2>Iran or what have you. If this is just an

1192
00:57:50.000 --> 00:57:53.039
<v Speaker 2>indicator that we're gonna eventually withdraw from Europe, and if

1193
00:57:53.039 --> 00:57:54.800
<v Speaker 2>you look at the National Defense strategy, it kind of

1194
00:57:54.800 --> 00:57:56.920
<v Speaker 2>indicates we are right. So I don't think it's just

1195
00:57:56.960 --> 00:58:00.519
<v Speaker 2>a one off. The next president, Republican or Democrat, is

1196
00:58:00.519 --> 00:58:02.440
<v Speaker 2>going to spend their entire time trying.

1197
00:58:02.199 --> 00:58:03.159
<v Speaker 1>To get back right.

1198
00:58:04.039 --> 00:58:06.360
<v Speaker 2>They just are it's in our own interest. It is

1199
00:58:06.480 --> 00:58:09.519
<v Speaker 2>not about you know, we're just defending. It costs us money.

1200
00:58:09.599 --> 00:58:12.480
<v Speaker 2>It costs us money because it's in our It's how

1201
00:58:12.519 --> 00:58:15.920
<v Speaker 2>we project force because we do have the luxury of

1202
00:58:15.960 --> 00:58:19.039
<v Speaker 2>being you know, protected by oceans. But that also is

1203
00:58:19.079 --> 00:58:22.079
<v Speaker 2>a burden when it comes to projecting force because you

1204
00:58:22.119 --> 00:58:24.960
<v Speaker 2>have to go over the oceans. Right, So we're gonna

1205
00:58:25.960 --> 00:58:29.639
<v Speaker 2>there is a provision in the NDAA that requires like

1206
00:58:29.679 --> 00:58:32.960
<v Speaker 2>a certification. I was told it's not just the Secretary

1207
00:58:32.960 --> 00:58:36.760
<v Speaker 2>of Defense that has to although I hurt two different things,

1208
00:58:36.920 --> 00:58:39.679
<v Speaker 2>but it's going to have to be the commanding general.

1209
00:58:39.320 --> 00:58:43.519
<v Speaker 4>From uh yeah, yeah.

1210
00:58:43.239 --> 00:58:46.800
<v Speaker 2>So he is going to have to say that it

1211
00:58:46.840 --> 00:58:49.960
<v Speaker 2>won't impact readiness, which we all know is not true.

1212
00:58:50.000 --> 00:58:52.519
<v Speaker 2>I mean that has to if we start withdrawing a

1213
00:58:52.559 --> 00:58:54.960
<v Speaker 2>lot of forces. Uh, he's going to have to. He's

1214
00:58:55.000 --> 00:58:56.599
<v Speaker 2>going to literally say it's not going to have any

1215
00:58:56.639 --> 00:58:59.480
<v Speaker 2>impact on NATO. There's all these things that and this

1216
00:58:59.599 --> 00:59:02.119
<v Speaker 2>is put in by Congress because they knew this was

1217
00:59:02.199 --> 00:59:05.159
<v Speaker 2>likely to happen. I think, to Jonathan's point, it started

1218
00:59:05.280 --> 00:59:08.199
<v Speaker 2>in the first administration, then it went away because of Bidens,

1219
00:59:08.519 --> 00:59:10.039
<v Speaker 2>So they knew this was going to happen. And this

1220
00:59:10.119 --> 00:59:12.000
<v Speaker 2>was put in there by Republicans too.

1221
00:59:12.480 --> 00:59:17.039
<v Speaker 1>Right, So do you think do you think this administration

1222
00:59:17.119 --> 00:59:19.199
<v Speaker 1>is worried about being in contempt of Congress?

1223
00:59:19.400 --> 00:59:22.039
<v Speaker 4>Well, that's the thing, you know, So we keep coming

1224
00:59:22.039 --> 00:59:26.159
<v Speaker 4>back to conrectorical questions. I mean, you know, Congress was

1225
00:59:26.199 --> 00:59:28.000
<v Speaker 4>also a check on those four hundred million dollars that

1226
00:59:28.000 --> 00:59:29.760
<v Speaker 4>were supposed to be spent in Ukraine and they didn't

1227
00:59:29.760 --> 00:59:30.039
<v Speaker 4>do it, and.

1228
00:59:30.280 --> 00:59:33.079
<v Speaker 1>The Epstein files and they haven't done it. There's like,

1229
00:59:33.159 --> 00:59:34.159
<v Speaker 1>you want to go down the list.

1230
00:59:34.159 --> 00:59:37.320
<v Speaker 4>We can, but but I think I mean, just yea again,

1231
00:59:37.360 --> 00:59:39.119
<v Speaker 4>it's I mean, how many friends of ours been treated

1232
00:59:39.400 --> 00:59:41.639
<v Speaker 4>medical care in Germany on the way back from getting

1233
00:59:43.960 --> 00:59:47.440
<v Speaker 4>or I mean, or every support flight we've ever known

1234
00:59:47.440 --> 00:59:51.719
<v Speaker 4>about goes through Ramstein. I mean, come on, it's just

1235
00:59:51.800 --> 00:59:53.480
<v Speaker 4>it just it doesn't make any sense. But you know,

1236
00:59:53.480 --> 00:59:55.920
<v Speaker 4>hopefully you'll see pushed back from Congress. In this case,

1237
00:59:56.599 --> 00:59:58.760
<v Speaker 4>I would say there's probably going to be more pushback

1238
00:59:58.800 --> 01:00:03.599
<v Speaker 4>on this. As opposed to the War Powers Resolution. This

1239
01:00:03.760 --> 01:00:06.760
<v Speaker 4>is a bigger deal just because uh, the kind of

1240
01:00:06.760 --> 01:00:09.320
<v Speaker 4>the national security normies in the Republican Party and there

1241
01:00:09.360 --> 01:00:11.519
<v Speaker 4>are still that that was out there on the hill

1242
01:00:11.960 --> 01:00:18.239
<v Speaker 4>are are you know, certainly don't support this. But the

1243
01:00:18.360 --> 01:00:20.679
<v Speaker 4>great I mean yeah, I mean the amazing part about well,

1244
01:00:20.719 --> 01:00:23.360
<v Speaker 4>that's that's Rubio. I mean he also went, yeah, so

1245
01:00:23.440 --> 01:00:26.320
<v Speaker 4>Rubio is just this weird enigma. I mean I I

1246
01:00:26.360 --> 01:00:29.000
<v Speaker 4>you know, he's clearly so much of the things that

1247
01:00:29.079 --> 01:00:31.239
<v Speaker 4>he does now and says there's not part of his

1248
01:00:31.239 --> 01:00:32.719
<v Speaker 4>his career had enigma.

1249
01:00:32.760 --> 01:00:35.960
<v Speaker 1>Do you mean like just like a fucking pussy that

1250
01:00:36.039 --> 01:00:38.320
<v Speaker 1>flip flops because of what Trump says, Because that is

1251
01:00:38.320 --> 01:00:41.920
<v Speaker 1>that what enigma means. I'm just trying to clarify his trip.

1252
01:00:42.079 --> 01:00:45.000
<v Speaker 4>That's what it seems like his trip to Hungary was

1253
01:00:45.000 --> 01:00:46.880
<v Speaker 4>was very disturbing for a lot of us who have

1254
01:00:47.000 --> 01:00:49.119
<v Speaker 4>testified in front of him, who's seeing him know what

1255
01:00:49.199 --> 01:00:51.599
<v Speaker 4>he believes in. That's not who he is. But he

1256
01:00:51.639 --> 01:00:53.679
<v Speaker 4>wants to be president and he wants Cuba to go down,

1257
01:00:53.719 --> 01:00:54.119
<v Speaker 4>So it's.

1258
01:00:54.000 --> 01:00:56.440
<v Speaker 1>Not going to be president. He's going to have to

1259
01:00:56.480 --> 01:00:58.599
<v Speaker 1>realize that sooner before later.

1260
01:00:58.880 --> 01:01:01.159
<v Speaker 4>I mean I would I wouldn't go that far. I

1261
01:01:01.239 --> 01:01:03.280
<v Speaker 4>think he's he's got a very good shot.

1262
01:01:03.360 --> 01:01:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I want to make a bet right now, one thousand US.

1263
01:01:09.119 --> 01:01:12.480
<v Speaker 4>If Cuba goes down, if actually he if they pull

1264
01:01:12.519 --> 01:01:16.400
<v Speaker 4>off this Cuba soft coup thing. You know, there's there's

1265
01:01:16.400 --> 01:01:18.119
<v Speaker 4>gonna be a lot of people in Florida who're pushing

1266
01:01:18.119 --> 01:01:18.360
<v Speaker 4>for him.

1267
01:01:18.440 --> 01:01:20.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Cool, Florida. That's a red state. I mean, if

1268
01:01:20.280 --> 01:01:23.519
<v Speaker 1>we're talking politically like that, nobody gives a ship about

1269
01:01:23.519 --> 01:01:28.199
<v Speaker 1>Cuba except if you're a Cuban in Florida. Frank, that's

1270
01:01:28.199 --> 01:01:31.440
<v Speaker 1>an that's an in America and a broad world, in

1271
01:01:31.480 --> 01:01:35.119
<v Speaker 1>the broad country. He's not He's gonna get six percent

1272
01:01:35.239 --> 01:01:37.760
<v Speaker 1>and he's gonna bow out and jump behind whoever gets

1273
01:01:37.760 --> 01:01:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the most, just like he did every other single time.

1274
01:01:40.800 --> 01:01:42.960
<v Speaker 1>And he's gonna keep flip flopping because that's all he is.

1275
01:01:43.280 --> 01:01:45.159
<v Speaker 1>He's a politician who's full of ship.

1276
01:01:46.280 --> 01:01:49.599
<v Speaker 2>But to Marks Boyd, there is still a Reagan side

1277
01:01:49.599 --> 01:01:52.280
<v Speaker 2>of the Republican Party and the Reagan side of the

1278
01:01:52.280 --> 01:01:56.639
<v Speaker 2>Republican Party views NATO as a key alliance that benefits

1279
01:01:56.679 --> 01:02:01.719
<v Speaker 2>the United States. Every president, including President Obama, was angry

1280
01:02:01.800 --> 01:02:04.639
<v Speaker 2>with NATO partners who weren't paying their fair share, and

1281
01:02:04.679 --> 01:02:07.039
<v Speaker 2>they were right. They were all right, including President Trump.

1282
01:02:07.639 --> 01:02:11.079
<v Speaker 2>But now kind of ironically, maybe mostly because of Russian

1283
01:02:11.119 --> 01:02:14.239
<v Speaker 2>invasion of Ukraine, they're all standing up, Like I just

1284
01:02:14.320 --> 01:02:17.079
<v Speaker 2>read something that Germany's gonna add four hundred and sixty

1285
01:02:17.079 --> 01:02:21.760
<v Speaker 2>six thousand soldiers, right, does anybody think that Germany can't

1286
01:02:21.880 --> 01:02:25.719
<v Speaker 2>raise an army? We should all know through history they can.

1287
01:02:26.039 --> 01:02:28.079
<v Speaker 2>So we're gonna The reason why I'm saying this is

1288
01:02:28.079 --> 01:02:30.840
<v Speaker 2>because we're going to end up with great allies like

1289
01:02:30.880 --> 01:02:33.119
<v Speaker 2>who are really strong. And we look at Poland right now.

1290
01:02:33.480 --> 01:02:36.239
<v Speaker 2>I think Poland could take on Russia and beat them personally,

1291
01:02:36.639 --> 01:02:39.079
<v Speaker 2>especially if they were with Ukraine. So what I'm saying

1292
01:02:39.119 --> 01:02:40.880
<v Speaker 2>is we might end up in a situation where the

1293
01:02:40.920 --> 01:02:42.960
<v Speaker 2>US is trying to pull out of an alliance that's

1294
01:02:42.960 --> 01:02:45.199
<v Speaker 2>now the most capable has ever been in its history,

1295
01:02:45.920 --> 01:02:47.880
<v Speaker 2>which is not good for us. That's why we have

1296
01:02:47.920 --> 01:02:50.159
<v Speaker 2>to spend one point five trillion dollars on our defense.

1297
01:02:50.559 --> 01:02:52.800
<v Speaker 1>We don't have to, so we don't.

1298
01:02:52.559 --> 01:02:58.199
<v Speaker 2>Have to, especially in our allies. It isn't just Germany,

1299
01:02:58.239 --> 01:03:00.840
<v Speaker 2>it isn't just I mean the year P and Alliser

1300
01:03:01.280 --> 01:03:01.920
<v Speaker 2>stepping up.

1301
01:03:01.960 --> 01:03:04.920
<v Speaker 4>And about that Greek spending on GDP.

1302
01:03:05.159 --> 01:03:07.840
<v Speaker 2>Let's go, what's up? Tell me? I don't know.

1303
01:03:08.079 --> 01:03:11.039
<v Speaker 1>We don't one of the top ones in NATO in

1304
01:03:11.159 --> 01:03:12.360
<v Speaker 1>terms of percentage.

1305
01:03:13.679 --> 01:03:13.960
<v Speaker 3>Good.

1306
01:03:14.159 --> 01:03:16.320
<v Speaker 1>We're doing it for Turkey. We don't give a ship

1307
01:03:16.320 --> 01:03:18.480
<v Speaker 1>about NATO. We want Turkey to go down.

1308
01:03:23.159 --> 01:03:23.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

1309
01:03:23.400 --> 01:03:25.880
<v Speaker 4>No, the Greeks have been very good. I mean, in fact,

1310
01:03:25.880 --> 01:03:29.320
<v Speaker 4>I mean even Breitbart is now celebrating the Greek national

1311
01:03:29.320 --> 01:03:31.599
<v Speaker 4>security strategy, which is causing me some anks.

1312
01:03:31.719 --> 01:03:35.280
<v Speaker 2>But we used to go to smokers in Greece because

1313
01:03:35.320 --> 01:03:38.400
<v Speaker 2>my son, you know it was a boxer. They every

1314
01:03:38.400 --> 01:03:41.239
<v Speaker 2>once in a while they have, like smokers are amateur

1315
01:03:41.280 --> 01:03:45.599
<v Speaker 2>boxing matches. They'd have like these Turks and the Greeks.

1316
01:03:45.960 --> 01:03:48.679
<v Speaker 2>Did you go to the Nades and the Turks they

1317
01:03:48.719 --> 01:03:52.800
<v Speaker 2>must have found like the worst boxers, Yeah, just smoked.

1318
01:03:52.800 --> 01:03:54.760
<v Speaker 1>You gotta stack it right there. You got to.

1319
01:03:54.800 --> 01:03:57.880
<v Speaker 2>Watch the Harlem gold crowders play there watching the generals

1320
01:03:58.320 --> 01:04:00.320
<v Speaker 2>right and we'd be like, is this real? Is just

1321
01:04:00.320 --> 01:04:03.360
<v Speaker 2>some kind of uf I'm not UFC, but uh.

1322
01:04:04.920 --> 01:04:07.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, w w yeah, because it was real.

1323
01:04:07.400 --> 01:04:10.920
<v Speaker 2>They just went and found really bad Turkish spots.

1324
01:04:11.119 --> 01:04:13.239
<v Speaker 1>They just grabbed homeless guys on the street and they're like,

1325
01:04:13.280 --> 01:04:15.599
<v Speaker 1>come on, let's go, let's beat the ship out of

1326
01:04:15.599 --> 01:04:18.760
<v Speaker 1>you for entertainment. And that's the most the Greeks could

1327
01:04:18.760 --> 01:04:22.960
<v Speaker 1>probably do to your Turkey for being honest. But yeah,

1328
01:04:23.119 --> 01:04:25.119
<v Speaker 1>a lot happening. We're obviously keep an eye on it.

1329
01:04:25.599 --> 01:04:31.480
<v Speaker 1>You guys want to any final thoughts.

1330
01:04:30.280 --> 01:04:34.039
<v Speaker 2>Well, this week could be significant, right, so that the

1331
01:04:34.079 --> 01:04:37.079
<v Speaker 2>president has been briefed, they's probably gonna choose one of

1332
01:04:37.079 --> 01:04:40.960
<v Speaker 2>the options unless there's a diplomatic breakthrough, so we should

1333
01:04:40.960 --> 01:04:42.639
<v Speaker 2>We could have a lot to talk about next week.

1334
01:04:44.079 --> 01:04:47.519
<v Speaker 1>Are guys do us a favor liking? Subscribe If you're

1335
01:04:47.519 --> 01:04:50.239
<v Speaker 1>listening to us on audio radio five Stars, subscribe there

1336
01:04:50.280 --> 01:04:54.440
<v Speaker 1>as well. Go and grab John Infan Hackett's books. They'ing

1337
01:04:54.679 --> 01:04:57.119
<v Speaker 1>very good. I started reading the first one, not the

1338
01:04:57.159 --> 01:04:58.880
<v Speaker 1>first one, the ran Shadow Weapons ones.

1339
01:04:59.239 --> 01:04:59.800
<v Speaker 3>Oh nice.

1340
01:05:00.159 --> 01:05:05.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's incredible. Mick Molroy and the Whitefish. Yeah, that's

1341
01:05:05.440 --> 01:05:08.400
<v Speaker 1>why I like it. I need pictures like our president

1342
01:05:09.320 --> 01:05:14.079
<v Speaker 1>McK molroy. Of course, white the Whitefish Security Summit happening

1343
01:05:14.079 --> 01:05:15.159
<v Speaker 1>at the end of February.

1344
01:05:16.079 --> 01:05:16.199
<v Speaker 3>Uh.

1345
01:05:16.400 --> 01:05:18.719
<v Speaker 1>That link is in the description. Mark polly Moreopolis His

1346
01:05:18.760 --> 01:05:20.599
<v Speaker 1>links are in the description. He's got a book called

1347
01:05:20.599 --> 01:05:25.480
<v Speaker 1>Clarity and Crisis and uh what else. Oh, help support

1348
01:05:25.480 --> 01:05:28.079
<v Speaker 1>the show Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You get

1349
01:05:28.079 --> 01:05:30.760
<v Speaker 1>ad free episodes both for The Teamhouse and eyes On

1350
01:05:32.119 --> 01:05:34.599
<v Speaker 1>and thanks guys as usual a pleasure.

1351
01:05:37.599 --> 01:05:39.400
<v Speaker 6>Hey guys, I want to take a moment to tell

1352
01:05:39.440 --> 01:05:43.000
<v Speaker 6>you about the Team House podcast newsletter. If you go

1353
01:05:43.039 --> 01:05:46.239
<v Speaker 6>and subscribe, it's totally free, and what it will do

1354
01:05:46.400 --> 01:05:49.760
<v Speaker 6>is aggregate all of our data, all of our content

1355
01:05:49.800 --> 01:05:52.519
<v Speaker 6>that we put out, the things that are on The

1356
01:05:52.559 --> 01:05:57.639
<v Speaker 6>Team House, on our geopolitics podcast, eyes On, things that

1357
01:05:57.760 --> 01:06:00.840
<v Speaker 6>I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high Side,

1358
01:06:01.760 --> 01:06:05.280
<v Speaker 6>anything else that we have going on books, we recommend

1359
01:06:06.159 --> 01:06:09.039
<v Speaker 6>upcoming guests that we have coming on the show, and

1360
01:06:09.320 --> 01:06:11.800
<v Speaker 6>also you know, filtering in some fun stuff in there

1361
01:06:11.800 --> 01:06:14.400
<v Speaker 6>as well. If you go and check it out, we

1362
01:06:14.440 --> 01:06:16.280
<v Speaker 6>send it out just once a week. We don't want

1363
01:06:16.280 --> 01:06:18.760
<v Speaker 6>to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll

1364
01:06:18.880 --> 01:06:21.639
<v Speaker 6>up of all of our content on a weekly basis.

1365
01:06:22.119 --> 01:06:25.679
<v Speaker 6>You can find our newsletter at teamhouse podcast dot kit

1366
01:06:25.920 --> 01:06:30.039
<v Speaker 6>dot com slash Join again. The website for that is

1367
01:06:30.079 --> 01:06:34.480
<v Speaker 6>Teamhouse Podcast, dot kit dot com slash Join, so we

1368
01:06:34.519 --> 01:06:35.320
<v Speaker 6>hope to see you there.

1369
01:06:35.960 --> 01:06:37.320
<v Speaker 1>The link will be down the description