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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in best betting show ever here on

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this Mondays. We have one more wild Card game to

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go here tonight, Monday Night.

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Speaker 2: Texans as Steelers.

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Speaker 1: Learned a few things over the weekend about some of

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these teams, maybe another team or two looking for some

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new coaches there, merrill. But we got a parlay of

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the day.

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Speaker 2: We got look.

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Speaker 1: Aheads to divisional rounds, we got a national championship game

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coming up, a little something for everybody here. But let's start,

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of course, with what we got going on here tonight,

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because it's all about the Texans and the Steelers, the

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last wild card of Wildcard weekend. And call me crazy,

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but it lived up to its name because it was

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a wild weekend in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it really was historical, and that's not an overstatement.

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In fact, before we even got to the fifth game,

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before the Sunday night game, the first four playoff games

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had already had more fourth quarterly changes in any entire

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fourth postseason in history. And you know, Joe, I saw

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that on the TV during the Eagle game. Yea, and

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it was like twelve of them in four games. I

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was like, I couldn't be reading this right. I went

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back and read it like three different times. I backed

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it up, backed, and I think it was twelve lead

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changes in those first four games. That's more than we'd

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had in any playoff line. And let's you know, do

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the math, we have what I think eleven play Yeah,

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this twelve teams would be eleven playoff games. That's how

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it's been. So if you some in game betting, probably

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was extremely profitable if you did the zigzag approach. Not

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as much in that New England game, as the Chargers

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are probably the one team that didn't really deserve at

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any point to cover this weekend. But yeah, it was

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a complete coin flip. Missed extra points left and right,

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once again affecting games. You know, going forward to the

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Jacksonville game, you know, not scoring early made a huge difference.

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It's wide open, not a surprise. I thought the playoffs

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were wide open. I will say this though, San Francisco

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beating Philly is huge because the Rams would have had

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to go to Seattle otherwise if it would been Eagles Bears. Yep,

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I've said coming into the postseason, I thought the Seahawks

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and Rams were the two best teams in the league. Obviously,

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LA looks sluggish at times against Carolina. I think Chicago's

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kind of a phony two seed, a very bad defensive

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team they barely won. I think Denver is a phony

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one seed. We'll see how far they get, you know,

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the next couple of weeks. I really do think if

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it's Seattle, LA next week in the NFC Championshi game

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May or a week from next week, that'll probably be

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the game to decide the Super Bowl champ.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be very interesting.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've got obviously one more game slotted in

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to figure out what it's gonna be. For the most part, though,

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we've got lines up on that. You know, Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo,

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Denver ready to go. We know the Rams, like you said,

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going to Chicago. Interesting. How I believe New England now

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is likely gonna is gonna take on the winner of

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this game tonight, which gives them a rest advantage. So it's, uh,

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it's gonna be fun. But we got to get past

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text and Steelers here Meryland. Right now, the market holding

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strong at what three, we're starting to see not a

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whole lot happening either. With the total thirty eight is

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what it looks like here pretty across the board. So

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Houston still getting some of the public love. But Pittsburgh

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I don't see it dropping under a field goal. So

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but we know the record of teams in wildcard rounds, right,

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If you don't think a team can win, don't be

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hoping they can cover anything, Like, just take the team

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who wins here. If you like Pittsburgh, they're likely got

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to win out right for you to get a cover

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in any way, shape or form.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, Meryl here tonight exactly.

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Speaker 3: I tell people that all the time, you don't take

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underdogs hoping they cover, especially when it's a single score.

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In fact, if you look at the NFL for decades,

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if you blindly pick the straight up winning and the

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spread is seven or less basically a single score game, yep,

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you're going to cover about eighty four percent of the

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time for decades now, which means means when teams cover

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as a seven point dog or less, they usually win

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the game outright. Which is why we always recommend sprinkling

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some on the money line if you're playing points spread underdogs,

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whether it's the NBA or the NFL, I do not

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recommend playing money line favorites. You know, if you're going

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to play this game, you lay the minus three and

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once again the same reason because there's only about a

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fifteen percent chance that the points brit comes into play,

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and it's even less now because the odds of Houston

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winning by one or two points is very now. Granted

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three you get the push, but either way you're getting

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a push, so it really doesn't change anything. So I

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do think you handicapped this as a straight up win situation,

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and home dogs do do well in the playoffs. You know,

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Mark Lawrence points this out all the time every year.

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I think going back to nineteen eighty he had a

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thirty five and fifteen. Coming into this season, we saw

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both Carolina and Chicago cover as dogs as home dogs,

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and then Jacksonville. You know, depending on when you played,

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it was plus one one and a half, but that

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was almost a pick them at times also, So yeah,

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I guess you could say they didn't cover, but that

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wasn't much of a home dog. So thirty seven and fifteen,

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thirty seven and sixteen, however you cut it now, does

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favor the Steelers here, and that is my concern with

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fading them. But then I want to have the better

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team in a playoff game. I want to have the

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better team in a straight up one situation, and that's Houston.

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First of all, they the best defense in the NFL statistically,

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points allowed and yards allowed, and a lot of other

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metrics you look at. They've been just a good defensive team.

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They got off to the zero to three straight up start,

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they've only lost two games since over the last three months,

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and the Steelers did not step up in class. Something

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else I'd like to look at in the postseason is

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how teams did against not just playoff teams, but quality

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teams in general. Let's just take playoff teams. Steelers only

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out gained one of the six playoff teams they played

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this year. They were out yarded in five of those

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six games by over one hundred yards on average. And

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the Texans, meanwhile, we're positive in those games as well.

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So I do think maybe there's a slight Aaron Rodgers

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edge experience wise. But Stroud's been in the postseason, He's

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played well. His numbers are similar to Rodgers this year,

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and we get the much better defense. If you're going

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to play it, I would lay it with Houston. Yes,

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that home dog angle concerns you to just you know.

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By the way, Jeff, you like a good conspiracy. Yep.

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I think they want Pittsburgh in this one. And here's

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all you need to know. The matchups are set because,

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like you said, the winner of this game plays at

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New England Sunday. Yet the networks are not announcing the

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start times until after tonight. Crazy. Now, what that tells

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me is if it's Pittsburgh, New England, they want to

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flex it into the Sunday night spot, Whereas if it's Houston,

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New England, it's going to be the early game Sunday.

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I would assume what what I mean? I thought I

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thought La Chicago would be the spotlight game, two of

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the biggest markets in the country, right, Nope, But I

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think I think Pittsburgh, New England is going to be

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the Sunday or the Sunday six thirty Eastern game. Otherwise

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it's Houston, New England at three. Yeah. And the betting

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rotations instint too, Joe. You know, I mean, like the

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don Best Rotation, Odds Logic Rotation has the New England

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game ahead of it. They don't have the start times.

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But Houston should win tonight, right, which means that should

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be the three o'clock and they've got San franc Seattle

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is the early game in the rotation Buffalo Denver that

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hasn't been announced yet either. I don't know. That's my

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guess as well, but it's it's interesting to me that

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the odds made that the league has not announced start

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times yet until the result tonight. Yeah, which tells me

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they're gonna they're gonna flip it. Right, of course they're

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gonna flip it.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna wait to see and exactly who's playing who,

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and then they'll go ahead based upon what they think

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is gonna be the biggest moneymaker, and that's where they're

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going to give us. But either team will be out

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of rest disadvantage here against New England on Sunday, so

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we'll see exactly where the NFL decides to go. I'm

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having a hard time figuring out the point process here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it opened up one thirty nine and.

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Speaker 1: A half, Merrill, we're down to thirty eight, and I

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know it seems like a real low number. Temperature around

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thirty degrees here tonight, possibly rain a little bit of

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win tip Welcome to Pittsburgh in January. But my concern

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with Houston is We've seen them struggle in perfect conditions

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inside offensively, I you know, what are we gonna get

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from them offensively? I just I'm trying to figure out

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how we get the forty points here, and I'm having

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a hard time getting there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you look at the team totals. We've got

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Houston at twenty and a half. Yeah, Pittsburgh seventeen and

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a half. That seventeen and a half is kind of tempting, right,

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because that's a key number, seventeen, And as I said earlier,

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Houston the number one defense in the NFL this year.

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So I definitely would not argue against a Steeler team

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total under seventeen and a half, especially since I kind

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of leaned towards Houston. But then the Texans at twenty

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and a half, at twenty one or more, yeah, you

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know you would start saying, hey, yea, they've struggled at

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times also, But yeah, I think that Steeler team total

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under seventeen and a half is intriguing. You've got a

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questionable offense against the best defense in the NFL. Thirty

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eight is a low number. As you said, it open

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thirty nine and a half, maybe a little bit of

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early week weather concerns is baked into that. Now we're

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starting to see some thirty eight and a half start

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to show DraftKings has that now, So I would expect

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some buyback maybe to be over by kickoff if weather

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is okay. Using all games this season, opponents played yardage

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points four points against. Even with the great Texan defense,

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I got a fair total of around forty one. I

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think it's a little bit deflated to the low.

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Speaker 1: Side it is, and I would correlay whoever you think

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is gonna win to the team total over. I mean,

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if you're thinking Pittsburgh wins this game out right, which

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is if you're picking Pittsburgh, that's the way you should.

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Speaker 2: Be looking, then they're getting over.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, I think it's twenty wins this This

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is like twenty thirteen twenty you know, forth somewhere in

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that ballpark. I don't know that we're gonna get twenty

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one or more points in the air in the market.

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I also don't think there's a rush to get it,

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maryl because I don't think it's gonna go to thirty

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seven thirty seven and a half. So if you're looking

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to play the under, I don't see any rush in

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having to go to the window and get it. We'll

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see what we'll see what happens prior to kick. But

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I think thirty eight is probably the line in the sand.

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I don't see it's getting any lower than that, do you.

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Speaker 3: I totally agree. DraftKings has moved to thirty eight and

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a half juice under and then one of the sharpest

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global books is thirty eight juice to the over right now.

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So I think you're exactly right. If you like the over,

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you probably grab the thirty eight now. Well, yep, if

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you like the under, you might get a thirty eight

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and a half. It might be more of them by kickoff,

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and there is one right now, They'll probably be more

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of them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there will be.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting here tonight. But a lot of

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anytime touchdown props out there, of course, there are you

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know CJ. Stroud, I know there's I in t props

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that seem to be really popular in this How many.

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Speaker 2: Sacks does Aaron Rodgers take?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 2: These are I don't know how many sacks.

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Speaker 1: If listen, if Miles Garrett couldn't get to them and

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they had no way of stretching the field against the Browns.

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I don't know, are we one hundred percent sure that

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Houston's gonna get to him and make it a sack

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kind of night.

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Speaker 2: It just feels like a guy who gets it out

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at what.

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Speaker 1: Two and a half two and a half seconds, one

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of the fastest in the NFL this year. I don't

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know how many hits Aaron Rodgers is gonna take tonight.

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It just feels like it might be dink dunk, take

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a few shots down the field with metcalf and let

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the chips fall. He may, but I don't see Aaron

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Rodgers holding the ball very long tonight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. It sounds like he's one of the veteran greatest

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quarterbacks of all time and it's a playoff game, right Yeah.

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I mean it's like you can't imagine he's going to

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do something to hurt the cause. And I do think

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that correlates with maybe how you play some of the

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passing attacks for the Steelers, you know, And I mentioned

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this in the I had the under best bet on

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the under in the Chargers Patriots game for my clients.

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I gave that out in the free play video and

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in the video I also said I think it correlates

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to how you play some receiver and passing props. Look

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at the yardage props to the under, whether it's for

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Aaron Rodgers or any of the Steeler receivers, but be

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very careful with completion and reception props because a lot

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of it is almost like a semi run game. Like

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you said, a little quick dump offs and whatnot. You

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can really add up the receptions and the completions and

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even the attempts. So I think the yardage props in

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this one once again, I would look receiver props, maybe

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Aaron Rodgers passing yardage props under, but be very careful

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with completions or receptions anything like that because those could

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still add up. And if you look at the Steelers

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in recent weeks, I mean they've had very few good

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passing games. In fact, yeah, I cuckulate, like only one

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really good passing game in the last two or three months,

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and that was actually at Baltimore in that win, that

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high scoring back and forth win. But the Texans defense

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is at another level.

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Speaker 1: Yeah there's and again Nico Collins took off last week.

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He'll be back in this game. Metcalf's prop by the way,

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receiving yards fifty six and a half fifty seven and

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a half.

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Speaker 2: Here, he's the guy that can stretch the field.

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Speaker 1: He's the one guy that that defense can't cheat and

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try to take the underneath stuff away because he'll burn you.

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I don't care if Stingley's on him, ahu wan. He's

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a guy that you got to be worried about on

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the back end. So, you know, do I see Aaron Rodgers?

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I think his longest pass completed pass was thirty three

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and a half or thirty four and a half yards.

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Do we see him going deep and completing one? Because

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it's either Metcalf or Austin I don't know who else

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it is.

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Speaker 2: At that point.

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Speaker 3: That's what makes you a little nervous of the prop.

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Like that also is if they're the underdog, which they are,

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if you think they're going to be losing the game

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in the second half, Yeah, you know, and you see

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that in all these games teams get that junk thirty

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or forty yard pass down the middle when the when

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the prevent defense leaves it open. My spidy senses tell

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me that would be the risk there. So once again

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that's going to correlate, as you know, to like how

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you think the game is going to play out if

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you're if you actually like but if you like Pittsburgh,

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they probably have a big play at some point also,

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so prop like that would make me a little nervous. Yep.

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Speaker 1: And Gainwell has been fantastic for them out of the

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backfield of five and a half receptions. He's been one

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of the favorite targets of Aaron Rodgers here as of late,

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especially when Metcalf was suspended. So I'm sure he's going

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to get plenty enough opportunities to get some yards in

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this one here tonight. But should be a lot of

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fun to watch who advances and takes on New England.

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Speaker 2: One way or the other.

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Speaker 1: But when you look back, merrill at some of these

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games and Wildcard and what are some of the takeaways here,

311
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because I think you mentioned some of the record breaking stats,

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including the fact I think we had more games this

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week that were decided by a team scoring a touchdown

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on their final possession than we have had. And I

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think the history of the NFL, if I read it correctly,

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you know you had Buffalo, you got all of these teams,

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You got the Rams their last possession resulting in a touchdown,

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and it was good enough to win them the game.

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That's kind of crazy when you think about it, in

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a wildcard round.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the first four games, we had twelve league

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changes in the fourth quarter. We've never had that many,

323
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and eleven playoff games combined. Crazy And then I think

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all four winners trailed with less than two minutes ago

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in all four of those games. So it's just crazy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely nuts the kind of week.

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Speaker 1: And and by the way, those hoping that Lafleur would

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be fired for the wonderful play calling with four minutes

329
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left to go in that game where he decided to

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call up three bombs for some reason, uh and stop

331
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the clock and just gave Chicago back the ball. Unfortunately,

332
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it looks like they're working on a deal for an extension,

333
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so that is happening with Green Bay right now. But

334
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I don't I mean a lot of people think McDermott

335
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saved his job Maryland. I don't think McDermott saved his

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his job.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think his job was in jeopardy.

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In jeopardy, I mean, and I think I think I mean, yeah,

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I said, the loser of the Baltimore Pittsburgh game was

340
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probably gonna get fired. And then on that I mean

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that kick may be very well made a difference in

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that game between Tomlin and Harball, but no, I mean

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I think McDermott this will be also I say about

344
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today too, Joe, like look at his Romani in the

345
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Super Bowl. If you think experience matters, yes, Like it's

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really like the Rams and the Bills. Who else is there?

347
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I mean the Seattle lineup hasn't had any experience, New

348
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England has, it's Chicago definitely has. In Denver, as I

349
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said earlier, I think they're a phony one seed. They don't.

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I mean maybe Pittsburgh. I guess if Aaron Robert II

351
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of they they're gonna go too far. Houston doesn't. So

352
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the only experienced team remaining is Buffalo, and they'd just

353
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be Jacksonville had no experience, and then even the Chargers.

354
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So it's really just the Bills. And then you look

355
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in the NFC, the Rams, I guess the forty nine ers,

356
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you could say the forty nine ers or the other

357
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experienced team, and the Eagles obviously would have been So

358
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if you think that matters, and historically speaking, I mean

359
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not to get to the Super Bowl, but to win

360
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the Super Bowl, it's usually a team that's got some

361
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kind of Super Bowl experience either they've lost there. It's

362
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like Rams forty nine ers versus the Bills. I mean,

363
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so if you want to, you know, do some future

364
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plays or some like you know, exact matchups and get

365
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a nice price, that wouldn't be the worst way to

366
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attack it. I still think Seattle and La are the

367
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two best teams. The Rams have a very tough road.

368
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You know, they barely be Caroline. They got to win

369
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in Chicago, then they're gonna have to win in Seattle.

370
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But you know, we saw them blow that game on

371
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Thursday night a few weeks ago. Seattle played them tough

372
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both times, but that could go either way. But you

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do almost wonder now that Buffalo got by Jacksonville, like

374
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if it's not starting to set up really well well,

375
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because if they win, they go to New England. New England,

376
00:17:04,319 --> 00:17:06,119
you don't have was twenty one nothing. They had a

377
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huge lead on him a few weeks ago, but the

378
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:09,759
Bill still found a way to win it. Yep, that's

379
00:17:09,759 --> 00:17:12,039
another incredible stat the Josh Allen stad he did it

380
00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:15,440
again this week. Crazy was it like thirty thirty six.

381
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Now I think it was thirty five at the time,

382
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Like thirty six fourth quarter comebacks or too many it

383
00:17:20,799 --> 00:17:23,359
must be fourth quarter wins or when trailing in the fourth.

384
00:17:23,799 --> 00:17:26,680
That's really a remarkable stet. I mean, most guys aren't

385
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even in the situation to do that thirty six times.

386
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Speaker 1: Nobody's better in December and January than what Josh Allen

387
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has been since two thousand. I mean, I told you, Meryl,

388
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we talked about it last week. The fact that they

389
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,599
had been twelve playoff games since twenty twenty with Josh

390
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,319
Allen and this was the first one actually outside of

391
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,480
Orchard Park or Kansas City is crazy to me. But yeah,

392
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there he goes. They go to Jacksonville, they get it

393
00:17:53,839 --> 00:17:56,839
done in epic fashion. Now they get to go to

394
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Denver and we'll talk about these early numbers on the

395
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:01,480
divisional round.

396
00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:02,839
Speaker 2: But let's get to.

397
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,319
Speaker 1: A parlay of the day. It's not a huge card

398
00:18:06,319 --> 00:18:09,920
in the NBA, not a huge card in college basketball.

399
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,920
We got one NFL game going on, Meryl. But if

400
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,000
you were going to pick a leg here, where would

401
00:18:16,039 --> 00:18:16,880
you look here tonight?

402
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:17,519
Speaker 2: On the card?

403
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,599
Speaker 3: Making me dig deep here, because as we said, the

404
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,240
NFL game could see it going both ways. The NBA

405
00:18:24,319 --> 00:18:26,759
board is thin, to say the least, and then the

406
00:18:26,799 --> 00:18:30,319
college basketball board is all extra games. Every one of

407
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,319
them is an extra game, all six digit rotation numbers.

408
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,160
I don't think I've ever seen that before, Joe, Like

409
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,079
on a normal Monday, like a non holiday Monday, Yep, crazy, Yep.

410
00:18:39,799 --> 00:18:41,680
That kind of tells you what you're dealing with a

411
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:43,839
few NBA games. Call my either, I'll tell you what

412
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,720
I'll take the contrarian call. I did a free play

413
00:18:45,839 --> 00:18:47,559
video on this one, so I'll double dip. Gave this

414
00:18:47,599 --> 00:18:50,759
on a wager Talk today. But Jalen Brown's doubtful. The

415
00:18:50,759 --> 00:18:52,519
Celtics were going to be a nine point favorite. It's

416
00:18:52,559 --> 00:18:55,519
now just five and a half six Indiana. We talked

417
00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:58,720
about them on Friday. They finally got that one thousand win.

418
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:01,240
They snapped the thirteen game losing streaking against Charlotte as

419
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,559
we thought they might, and they've actually now won back

420
00:19:03,559 --> 00:19:05,680
to back games. They beat your Miami Heat as well

421
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,000
on Saturday. But you know, we see this all the time,

422
00:19:09,039 --> 00:19:13,200
these shorthanded teams outperform like the Celtics. They're coming up

423
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,240
for loss to San Antonio. This is a huge step

424
00:19:15,279 --> 00:19:17,799
down in class pacers coming off back to back straight

425
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,400
up dog wins. It's actually a little bit of a

426
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,960
flat spot instead of line laying nine with laid not

427
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,119
five and a half. So I'll take a flyer with

428
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,519
the shorthanded Boston Celtics minus five and a half. It's

429
00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:28,319
just an angle that keeps all working year after you were.

430
00:19:28,319 --> 00:19:30,880
It feels yucky even when I use it, but it

431
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:32,440
just keeps winning more than it loses.

432
00:19:32,839 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 2: I love that, all right. Well, if you're going contrarian,

433
00:19:35,279 --> 00:19:36,480
I'm going contrarian.

434
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 1: I will take the points with Nichols stayed here tonight,

435
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:47,400
taking on, of course, everybody's favorite McNee State, who is still,

436
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,680
let's face it, the class of the Southland, right. They

437
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,680
had a lot of success, getting a lot of publicity,

438
00:19:53,799 --> 00:19:57,960
a lot of headlines here over the last year, and

439
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,519
they always continue because of that Meryl to get these

440
00:20:01,599 --> 00:20:06,279
ridiculous lines. And now, granted, Nickels State started what owen seven,

441
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:10,079
but took on a gauntlet of teams they probably had

442
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,519
no business ever playing or whatever gonna win. But they

443
00:20:13,559 --> 00:20:17,240
have ripped off eight wins in their last nine games.

444
00:20:17,759 --> 00:20:20,440
And call me crazy, I mean they've covered I believe

445
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,119
three of the last four times they've played in this series.

446
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,240
This is too many points. Fourteen Nickel State's not going

447
00:20:26,279 --> 00:20:30,839
to be intimidated here. I'll take the fourteen points McNee State. Yeah,

448
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,880
they might win, but they win by more than two touchdowns.

449
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,720
I'm not buying it, Meryl. I'll take the points here tonight.

450
00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:37,960
In a little Southland action.

451
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a good example of what we talked about,

452
00:20:41,039 --> 00:20:44,000
like how you have to separate preseason, which is non

453
00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:47,000
conference versus the January February games. This is a team,

454
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,000
like you said, started oh and seven, they played Kentucky,

455
00:20:50,039 --> 00:20:54,960
Oklahoma State, Creighton, Tulane, Murray State, Valparaso, and they have

456
00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:58,400
since gone eight and one straight up yeap, including seven

457
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,759
to zero in this conference against like opponents. Yep. Yeah,

458
00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:05,240
it's a very The odds makers really struggle with games

459
00:21:05,279 --> 00:21:07,440
like this because it's that age old debate, you know,

460
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,799
how much do you wait? You know, current form versus

461
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,519
overall numbers. And I think this is an extreme example

462
00:21:13,519 --> 00:21:15,880
where you really have to look at apples to apples,

463
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,480
which is conference play. Yep. By the way, these are

464
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,960
two of the best turnover forcing teams in the country.

465
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,720
They're both like top eleven percentage of turnovers for so

466
00:21:24,759 --> 00:21:27,559
this will be a back and forth game. McNeice does

467
00:21:27,599 --> 00:21:30,240
take better care of the ball, but I still think

468
00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:33,079
Nichols plays well enough. And yeah, you gotta be careful,

469
00:21:33,079 --> 00:21:35,039
like looking at all the overall games this year, because

470
00:21:35,039 --> 00:21:37,119
if you look at conference only stats, it's probably a

471
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:38,119
single digit game.

472
00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:38,559
Speaker 2: Yeah.

473
00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: And there by the way, they're all for five against

474
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,480
the number. And just to go show you how much

475
00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:46,279
you know over value they are. With all the hype

476
00:21:46,319 --> 00:21:49,279
around this team, they were laying six and a half

477
00:21:49,319 --> 00:21:53,079
against Southeast Louisiana, didn't cover, didn't cover, the ten and

478
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:58,039
a half against you know, Austin, just go to Lamar,

479
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,680
didn't cover. They just keep giving these absurd numbers to

480
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,200
this team and they yeah, they win the game, but

481
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,200
they ain't covering by that many. So I'll take the

482
00:22:07,279 --> 00:22:13,359
fourteen here tonight with Nickel State against mcneese's State. Now,

483
00:22:13,519 --> 00:22:15,680
a lot of people having a hard time merrow with

484
00:22:15,759 --> 00:22:19,799
the Buffalo Bills being a favorite here on the road

485
00:22:19,839 --> 00:22:23,960
against Denver, but it feels like, now, listen, they didn't

486
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,039
go off the favorite. I mean there was a ton

487
00:22:26,079 --> 00:22:29,960
of Jacksonville late money which pushed them to minus two

488
00:22:30,039 --> 00:22:33,599
even minus two and a half Jacksonville. So ironically enough,

489
00:22:33,599 --> 00:22:37,119
the public love Buffalo all week, but they closed the

490
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,319
dog here by the time that game kicked off in

491
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,200
Jacksonville yesterday. So are we looking at the same thing

492
00:22:43,279 --> 00:22:44,480
possibly happening here.

493
00:22:46,599 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's what people make

494
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,039
of that Buffalo win. If they feel as impressive they're

495
00:22:51,079 --> 00:22:52,680
down with a minute to go in that game, you know,

496
00:22:52,759 --> 00:22:55,319
they get the what I think should be illegal offensive

497
00:22:55,319 --> 00:22:58,160
lineman carrying the quarterback ten yards to the goal line.

498
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,519
I mean, Andy Lane and Dan Alexander and Witch Talk

499
00:23:02,559 --> 00:23:04,680
today did not understand why it was upset about there. Now,

500
00:23:04,759 --> 00:23:06,960
Granny I had Jacksonville. Maybe that's why I was upset.

501
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,880
It cost me a three, cost me a three and

502
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,759
o NFL sweep, a four and oh sweep with NBA

503
00:23:10,799 --> 00:23:12,960
and NFL and Sunday, so I went three and one instead.

504
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,839
But it just looks weird to me, And I know

505
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,519
when I was playing, I still don't think you could

506
00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:18,440
do that in high school Like that just seems like

507
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,480
a safety issue. So the rule probably is different, But

508
00:23:20,519 --> 00:23:22,200
I didn't think back in the eighties and nineties you

509
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:23,519
could do that in the NFL either. I did not

510
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:26,000
think you could push somebody, and that was changed. I

511
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,319
don't know, it looked like rugby. I'm already devising ways

512
00:23:29,319 --> 00:23:30,920
that we could take like a three foot one guy

513
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,079
when I'm not using him in my basis leaded Baseball

514
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,160
World Series game for the automatic walk of the plate,

515
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,240
we just take him and throw him over the line

516
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,640
of scrimmage into the end zone. I don't understand. Is

517
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,200
that an illegal forward pass if he's holding the ball.

518
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,319
I don't see a problem with it. Yeah, but I

519
00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:47,200
think there's a lot of angles here we could use.

520
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,480
So Yeah, but that's why I would saying too, like

521
00:23:50,519 --> 00:23:53,359
Jacksonville probably technically wasn't a home dog, you know, to

522
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,400
qualifying that thirty seven and fifteen angle. I'm not surprised

523
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,559
though Denver is a phony one seed. As I said,

524
00:24:00,839 --> 00:24:03,000
I'm not sure Buffalo is not phony. Also, I actually

525
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,920
think Jacksonville was better than Buffalo and Denver this season. Defensively,

526
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,200
both teams are much better than Buffalo. The difference is

527
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,680
Jacksonville had a good offense, Denver does not not. You know. Also,

528
00:24:14,759 --> 00:24:17,279
you see recreational people and fans say, oh, winning is

529
00:24:17,319 --> 00:24:19,200
all that counts and that's bull And you know that, Joe,

530
00:24:19,279 --> 00:24:20,880
because you know what The point spread is based on

531
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,160
margin of victory and schedule strength. It's that simple. The

532
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,000
point spread really isn't it's some magical formulas. It's what

533
00:24:26,039 --> 00:24:30,039
you win by factory and opponents played and Denver, game

534
00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:33,480
after game this year had one margin wins. They showed

535
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,559
the only team that had had more. They broke the record,

536
00:24:35,559 --> 00:24:38,160
which was Kansas City last year. Yeah, and we saw

537
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,039
how flat Kansas City turned out to be in the

538
00:24:40,079 --> 00:24:41,759
Super Bowl and how bad they turned out to be

539
00:24:41,839 --> 00:24:44,640
this year. Minnesota Vikings were one of those teams that

540
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,200
had near record a few years ago one margin wins.

541
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,079
They've regressed big time. So it is an indication that

542
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:52,880
a team maybe is not as good as a record.

543
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,200
And you look at New England meanwhile, they do probably

544
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:56,480
think overall they're the better team.

545
00:24:57,039 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's going to be interesting to find on

546
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,960
the line movement in that one. We did see, of course,

547
00:25:03,519 --> 00:25:06,079
uh seven and a half's open up with San Francisco

548
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,279
and Seattle Merril and it looks like sevens now.

549
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 2: It looks like it's come back.

550
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: But I don't think we're ever gonna get under a

551
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:14,880
touchdown in this one.

552
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:15,599
Speaker 2: Here to you.

553
00:25:17,039 --> 00:25:18,799
Speaker 3: So I had Seattle a couple of weeks ago as

554
00:25:18,799 --> 00:25:20,720
a strong best bet as a you know, one and

555
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,359
a half point road favorite. It went up to two

556
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,880
and a half. The public was all over San Francisco.

557
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,359
They made my fad the public video back in week eighteen.

558
00:25:27,759 --> 00:25:30,359
It was a public dog. The sharp money was on Seattle,

559
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,359
including me. It was the best bet for my clients.

560
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,519
It was in the free play video. So I liked

561
00:25:34,519 --> 00:25:37,799
Seattle in that game. But San Francisco is still a

562
00:25:37,799 --> 00:25:39,519
game away from being the number one seed. You know,

563
00:25:39,559 --> 00:25:41,680
so everyone and everyone was fading them. Last week it

564
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,839
went from three and a half to six. They beat

565
00:25:43,839 --> 00:25:47,079
Philly outright. Seattle's rested and will also see how the

566
00:25:47,079 --> 00:25:48,920
rest effects these two teams. I think Seattle's ad a

567
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,599
bigger risk, by the way, for not coming out of

568
00:25:50,599 --> 00:25:52,559
the buy well because they're more of an offensive team.

569
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,160
It's not gonna hurt Denver as much because Denver's more

570
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,240
defensive base. They're not an explosive offense. They had the

571
00:25:58,279 --> 00:26:01,119
thin air and altitude as well, so I think Seattle's

572
00:26:01,319 --> 00:26:03,279
actually a dicier spot as the once. Even though they're

573
00:26:03,319 --> 00:26:05,519
a better team. I just don't feel like there's seven

574
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:08,880
and a half points better than San Francisco. You said

575
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,440
it has come down to seven, though, we'll see where

576
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,960
it settles. That's probably most likely spot. I know a

577
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,160
lot of sports books are kind of juice teasers, too

578
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,839
much to play, but Dinver plus seven and a half

579
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,680
Seattle minus one and a half looks like a really

580
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,759
good six point teaser. Though on Saturday, if you want

581
00:26:21,759 --> 00:26:22,880
to tie it up for some action.

582
00:26:23,279 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: It does.

583
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: And maybe no, no more public action and public team.

584
00:26:29,759 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: And we talked to Art last week here, Meryl.

585
00:26:32,279 --> 00:26:36,759
Speaker 1: Then the National Championship game and the Indiana Hoosiers, who

586
00:26:36,799 --> 00:26:41,119
are now I am seeing nines popping up in the

587
00:26:41,319 --> 00:26:44,920
marketplace as the tickets and the money continue to.

588
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 2: Roll in on Indiana.

589
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: And I've been saying, I just told Andy on wager

590
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,279
Talk today, listen, if you like Miami, there is no rush.

591
00:26:54,079 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 2: To bet them out.

592
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: Could let the public do and air thing and let

593
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,359
the money come rolling in. We'll see how high this

594
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,119
line can get, Meryll. But there is no doubt they

595
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,000
are betting this one like they bet the Eagles against

596
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,079
forty nine ers. You'd be hard pressed to find anybody

597
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,640
running tho the window with a Miami bet because it

598
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,200
appears to be all Indiana at this point.

599
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. I had a strong best bet on Indiana for

600
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,799
my clients last Friday night, and as I'm watching it,

601
00:27:21,839 --> 00:27:24,680
you know, I'm like, this is nice, but unfortunately it's

602
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,519
taken away any value I'm gonna have with playing them

603
00:27:26,559 --> 00:27:29,759
in the championship game. Because you and I talked about

604
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:32,720
the advanced line of both FanDuel and DraftKings bettable numbers

605
00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:34,839
last Friday as we did this show was five and

606
00:27:34,839 --> 00:27:38,200
a half. That was a betable line. Right as the

607
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:39,839
game ended, I pulled them up to see where they

608
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,839
would be. I was like, obviously it's gonna be higher,

609
00:27:42,039 --> 00:27:43,640
Like where they have to price you to get me

610
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,240
less interested. I was like, well, would have to be

611
00:27:45,279 --> 00:27:46,599
seven and a half or more. You'd have to get

612
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,759
over that key number of seven. And when I pulled

613
00:27:48,759 --> 00:27:50,400
it up Friday night, it was with about a minute

614
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,480
to go in the game, it was seven and a

615
00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:54,240
half at both spots, and all the other worldwide books

616
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,039
were opening seven and a half. I was like, that

617
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,680
makes a lot of sense. Now it's eight and a half.

618
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,960
As you said, there's some nines even to show. But

619
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,799
Indiana is a better team. They're an explosive team on

620
00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:06,200
both sides of the ball. They're the better team on

621
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:07,720
both sides of the ball. Now, Miami does have a

622
00:28:07,759 --> 00:28:09,640
slight home edge here, we'll see how much that matters.

623
00:28:10,559 --> 00:28:14,039
We don't tease college football normally, but with a total

624
00:28:14,039 --> 00:28:16,200
of forty nine and eight and a half, Indiana is

625
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,640
actually in a good teaser spot once again. Also, so

626
00:28:19,279 --> 00:28:21,839
a lot of games here catch my eye for teasers.

627
00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:23,880
I mean, Seattle down to one and a half, yep,

628
00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:28,440
the Nuggets, the bronc goes up to seven and a half,

629
00:28:29,319 --> 00:28:31,920
you know, good defensive team at home against the Bills

630
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,359
who are on a great defensive team, and then Indiana

631
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:35,839
down to two and a half is a basic straight

632
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,079
up win situation. So a lot of options. And you know,

633
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,480
sportsbooks don't give you great odds on teasers anymore, but

634
00:28:41,559 --> 00:28:45,160
some of them have. It tremendously changed the three team teasers,

635
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,720
so you could round robin those into twos, or you

636
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,240
could actually just do a three teamer and have a

637
00:28:49,279 --> 00:28:52,720
lot of fun with it. I like those three teaser options.

638
00:28:52,319 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: Though, I'll tell you it is for a line that

639
00:28:55,039 --> 00:28:58,160
continues to rise. The totals not moving. It looks like

640
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,480
we got a ton of tickets on the over with

641
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,720
the Hurricanes and the Hoosiers. But there's enough under money

642
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,599
here that's not moving it. It's locked in at forty

643
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,319
eight and a half, so it'll be interesting to see the.

644
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 2: Path of these lines.

645
00:29:12,519 --> 00:29:15,599
Speaker 1: We got a week before this game is played, but

646
00:29:15,759 --> 00:29:20,279
so far it's been all Indiana money in the marketplace

647
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,000
at this point. All right, we got six games in

648
00:29:23,039 --> 00:29:27,720
the NBA, Meryl, handful of games in the college basketball ranks.

649
00:29:27,759 --> 00:29:31,200
We'll run through a couple for you guys. But before

650
00:29:31,279 --> 00:29:36,519
we do, it is, of course time for some business.

651
00:29:36,599 --> 00:29:39,960
And Merrill loves this picture of the pres here, so

652
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,319
you start us off. Meryl, tell us what you got

653
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,480
rolling over at wager talk dot com.

654
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 3: Meant to mention this on wager Talk today. You'll appreciate it. Joe,

655
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,920
So I'm flipping around. I had the charge of Patriot

656
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:51,960
game home, but that was a pretty boring game last night,

657
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,599
so I'm flipping around during commercials. Princess Bride is on

658
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,279
the CW network, so I'll watch some of that, and

659
00:29:57,319 --> 00:29:59,759
then the Jerk is on one of the movie channels.

660
00:30:00,119 --> 00:30:02,039
And then right after the jerk was Airplane, which is

661
00:30:02,039 --> 00:30:04,039
one of the three greatest comedies of all time. And

662
00:30:04,079 --> 00:30:05,799
then I closed it off going to bed last night

663
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:08,039
with some trading places which I came across again. But

664
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,519
in Airplane, the disco scene, he goes poo, he shoots

665
00:30:11,519 --> 00:30:14,200
the bullets out exactly. So he just made me think

666
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,880
of watching Airplane last night when I see the pres

667
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:22,039
doing that. Anyway, I digress. Anyway, I'm trying to avoid

668
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:27,079
talking about this NBA or college The disco scene right there,

669
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,839
and then right after that is when he was teaching

670
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,240
the African tribe to play basketball, and he developed the

671
00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:33,920
drinking problem and takes the gatorade, pours it in the

672
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,400
cup and splashes it right over his face. Soon after

673
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,720
is when I developed a drinking problem. Such a great movie.

674
00:30:43,039 --> 00:30:45,359
You need to find somebody that can find this Airplane

675
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,400
and he didn't have fish for dinner. That's maybe my

676
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,119
great and the greatest sign of all in there. Oh

677
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,319
so great. Oh anyway, not a lot in the NBA

678
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,319
college shoops tonight. But as you know, I always post

679
00:30:54,319 --> 00:30:55,920
a free play on my page, So go to my

680
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,839
page every day get the bonus free play with analysis.

681
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,880
It's truly the last Cup. From my best bet card,

682
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,279
Steve merrillwager talk dot com. You get there, quicker, WT

683
00:31:04,319 --> 00:31:07,960
dot buzz, slash sm and I'm doing every single NFL

684
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:09,839
playoff game. I've got the free video up a deep

685
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,279
dive into the Texans Steelers game tonight here on wager

686
00:31:12,319 --> 00:31:14,680
Talk TV, and I'll have all four games for this

687
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,400
weekend as well as click subscribe click the belt for

688
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,480
instant alerts. Thumbs up. Like these shows and videos in

689
00:31:20,519 --> 00:31:22,519
a positive comment below, because we read the comments, we

690
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:24,039
apply back here on wager Talk TV.

691
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: Great stuff.

692
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,759
Speaker 1: All right, we are lockloaded ready to go tonight in

693
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,720
College Basketball one NBA, and we are ready to roll

694
00:31:31,839 --> 00:31:36,119
in this game tonight between Pittsburgh and Houston, all available

695
00:31:36,279 --> 00:31:39,799
over at wager talk dot com. But let's talk about

696
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:43,400
these horrific NBA games that we do going on tonight.

697
00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:46,839
The game that interested me the most merrill was the

698
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:51,759
game that we got a little movement overnight, as the

699
00:31:51,799 --> 00:31:55,720
Clippers were a six and a half point favorite, six

700
00:31:55,759 --> 00:31:59,640
point favorite overnight. Woke up this morning and now all

701
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,640
of a sud on this down to four four and

702
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,200
a half. I haven't seen anybody listed is out yet,

703
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,640
but the you know, Charlotte's coming off a one hundred

704
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:08,559
and fifty.

705
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,279
Speaker 2: Point beatdown of the Jazz.

706
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,039
Speaker 1: I find it interesting Clippers at home have been playing

707
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:18,200
obviously their best basketball. A lot of love for Charlotte

708
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:19,720
in the market overnight here.

709
00:32:21,559 --> 00:32:23,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think some of it might just be that

710
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:24,960
Charlotte's kind of been a play on team here in

711
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,960
recent weeks. You know, obviously a young team, as I

712
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:29,880
told you, I've seen them play this year. Bell was

713
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,960
sitting out of that game, but Kannopo had over thirty

714
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,720
against the Jazz the game I went to back early November.

715
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,599
So there's a little bit of energy with that squad.

716
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,920
And as we know, with load management, right we never

717
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,720
know who's playing who's not. One thing you know with

718
00:32:41,759 --> 00:32:44,319
the bad teams is that they don't have everybody the

719
00:32:44,359 --> 00:32:46,400
load management because they're not worried about the postseason. They

720
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,799
don't have a lot of star power. So we have

721
00:32:48,839 --> 00:32:51,079
been getting some good efforts from Charlotte here in recent weeks,

722
00:32:51,079 --> 00:32:52,680
and the points spreads have shown that as well. This

723
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,279
team is now six and one against the spread the

724
00:32:55,359 --> 00:32:58,559
last seven, and going back further, they're ten and two

725
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,000
against the spread. Actually nine and two their last eleven,

726
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,160
so they've been the most profitable team in the NBA

727
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,480
since the last week in December. Clippers, though, hey, you know,

728
00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:09,319
not too bad as well. They're nine and two their

729
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,079
last eleven against the spread. So I've kind of with

730
00:33:11,079 --> 00:33:14,599
you on that Joe road win against Detroit as a dog,

731
00:33:14,759 --> 00:33:16,720
you know, coming off the three game road trip one

732
00:33:16,799 --> 00:33:19,400
day back. Not a great setup is probably the reason

733
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,839
we've seen this line drop a bit. But still, do

734
00:33:21,839 --> 00:33:23,880
you really trust the Hornets plus five? This is we

735
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,160
talked about earlier. They almost have to win the game

736
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,480
at that price range. Not something I'm interested in.

737
00:33:28,759 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 2: I agree.

738
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,519
Speaker 1: And then, of course, have you seen the total in

739
00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:35,000
the Utah Cleveland game, because it bears mentioning because we

740
00:33:35,039 --> 00:33:38,519
are now up to two hundred and fifty points here

741
00:33:38,559 --> 00:33:41,200
as a total between Utah and Cleveland, and I don't

742
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,519
even know if marketing is playing or not with Utah.

743
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,839
I'm not sure where we're getting that many. That's an

744
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,480
awful lot of points here, Meryll, even I get that,

745
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,960
you know, one hundred and fifty points were just tropped

746
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,880
on Utah.

747
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: But they didn't play anybody like I mean, really, two

748
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,960
fifty already is that what we're doing.

749
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,839
Speaker 3: So the game I saw in Charlotte was against Utah,

750
00:34:03,839 --> 00:34:06,119
as I referenced and market, it had like he had

751
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,159
over twenty some points by the third quarter, and the

752
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,559
Jets were losing by like twenty or thirty points to

753
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,920
the Hornets. So I remember thinking that at that time, Joe, like,

754
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,920
this is a really bad team. They've got what's considered

755
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,199
like a top ten player who's quietly had like almost

756
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,719
thirty points and three quarters and they're still getting blown out.

757
00:34:22,519 --> 00:34:26,280
That's how bad their defense is. So here again, maybe

758
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,360
just look at a team total instead and just play

759
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,920
the Cleveland team total up and over, which is one

760
00:34:31,039 --> 00:34:33,280
thirty one and a half, and that seems big, but

761
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,320
it's doable. Utah's at one eighteen and a half. They

762
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,719
probably get there as well. And I know I've said

763
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,400
this for years, You've always heard me say it. Ralph

764
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,039
Michael says as well. The highest totals go over, the

765
00:34:43,079 --> 00:34:45,880
lowest totals go under. This open two forty six and

766
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:47,639
a half, it's up to two fifty two to fifty

767
00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:49,119
and a half. And the reason it works is because

768
00:34:49,119 --> 00:34:51,760
they don't truly price these games where they should be

769
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,280
because the public kind of like with the injury games,

770
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,559
you know, they get apprehensive, they just stay away from them.

771
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:58,679
So if you're going to play it, the only way

772
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,559
to play this up and over, but you can also

773
00:35:00,559 --> 00:35:02,440
look at those team total options as well to split

774
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,079
it up a big getting a little bit more reasonable.

775
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,159
Speaker 1: Yep, kind of like that there here tonight, just six

776
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:11,119
games there. We went over the college basketball. We both

777
00:35:11,159 --> 00:35:13,719
have a couple of looks there for you. Not a

778
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,239
ton going on in the swack in the Southland there,

779
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,800
but Nickels State seems to be one that we certainly

780
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,480
pointed to that we liked. You've got a little American

781
00:35:23,599 --> 00:35:26,639
versus Navy. What do you do in that situation too?

782
00:35:26,679 --> 00:35:30,320
Meryll And we like the Patriot League where Navy got

783
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,840
bounced by American in the final last year and they

784
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,480
end up punching their ticket to March Madness. And Navy

785
00:35:38,599 --> 00:35:41,719
was the better team all year long and just went

786
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,679
cold in that game. But now they've got an opportunity

787
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:49,119
here to exact a little revenge here. Do you think teams,

788
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,760
especially a team like Navy that still has a lot

789
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,920
of their guys from that team a year ago, do

790
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,559
you think that Navy remembers that loss.

791
00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just gonna say, I mean most revenge

792
00:35:59,599 --> 00:36:01,920
spots nothing anymore because none of the players are saying.

793
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,639
But if there's one squad, like you said, Joe, that

794
00:36:03,679 --> 00:36:05,880
would have the same makeup, it's the Service Academy as

795
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,159
well as they didn't graduate. So I agree with you there.

796
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,599
When I was doing the Bowl videos by one of

797
00:36:10,639 --> 00:36:12,719
the comments was fantastic. I need to start clipping these

798
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,119
and giving people credit. But we were talking about opt outs

799
00:36:15,159 --> 00:36:16,960
and how you know the Service academies always do well

800
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,840
Bowl games because one of the reasons is that you

801
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,000
can't opt out. They always have their lineups. One of

802
00:36:21,039 --> 00:36:23,079
the comments is said, if you opt out of a

803
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:25,039
Bowl game of the Service Academy is called a wall.

804
00:36:25,159 --> 00:36:27,960
I thought that was hilarious, so I like that that

805
00:36:28,079 --> 00:36:30,239
was a great line. I was like, what, it's actually true.

806
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,599
It's funny because it's true. Yeah, you get a clean

807
00:36:33,639 --> 00:36:36,400
handicap now because of the Service academies. You know what

808
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,079
you're getting. Maybe Surprisingly does not take a lot of

809
00:36:40,079 --> 00:36:41,800
three pointers, and you would think this would be like

810
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,480
an Air Force team that used to take half their

811
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,800
shots from three. Navy actually scores a lot down low.

812
00:36:47,559 --> 00:36:50,519
They're a very effective defensive team. It's not what you

813
00:36:50,519 --> 00:36:53,480
would expect from Navy basketball, and American doesn't give up

814
00:36:53,519 --> 00:36:56,559
many threes, but they're pretty suspect down low with their

815
00:36:56,559 --> 00:36:58,480
two point defense. So this looks like a good matchup

816
00:36:58,480 --> 00:36:59,840
for Navy, and I do think it's one of those

817
00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:03,679
legitimate revenge spots. They'll be focused as well. I agree.

818
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,599
Speaker 1: I think there's some value in it there. So there

819
00:37:06,639 --> 00:37:10,400
you go, guys, little NBA, little college basketball. A little

820
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,920
look ahead here to the divisional round. Not to mention

821
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:18,199
the game tonight between the Texans and the Steelers. Don't

822
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,960
forget to hit that like button, make sure you hit

823
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,039
that subscribe button, and of course come back and join

824
00:37:24,119 --> 00:37:27,079
us again tomorrow as we have maybe the press, maybe

825
00:37:27,119 --> 00:37:31,159
not maybe Meryll, maybe Brian power One never knows these days.

826
00:37:32,199 --> 00:37:35,159
And he's apparently still at the poker table. I don't

827
00:37:35,199 --> 00:37:37,719
know if he knows whose poker table it is, but

828
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,599
apparently he's at a poker table. Merrill, is that what

829
00:37:40,679 --> 00:37:41,480
you hear in the press.

830
00:37:43,119 --> 00:37:45,199
Speaker 3: You and I were told, you told me Friday he

831
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,840
was not doing well, but your dinner date apparently got canceled.

832
00:37:48,039 --> 00:37:49,800
And then he calls me this week, and it said

833
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,400
he needs me almost certainly for Monday and Tuesday. He said,

834
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,679
point blank, Steve, I'm doing really well. It's almost a certainy.

835
00:37:55,679 --> 00:37:58,239
I'll need you Monday and Tuesday to fill in. Now,

836
00:37:58,559 --> 00:38:02,000
he made it sound like it was poker tournament. I

837
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,840
think he did say poker. But then again, he might

838
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,519
just be playing his dad head to head like it

839
00:38:05,599 --> 00:38:07,960
is dominating his dad at poker. He might be doing

840
00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:09,079
very well in that matchup.

841
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's doing well with his canasta game right

842
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,800
now against his own man. So that's wonderful stuff there.

843
00:38:16,119 --> 00:38:18,880
So that means you and I again tomorrow. Art the

844
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,800
season there, Meryl can't wait to do it. We'll have

845
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,679
updates live from the book there with Art will get

846
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,639
you all set up. What a huge card in college

847
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,960
basketball NBA and of course get ready for the divisional

848
00:38:32,079 --> 00:38:34,960
round that is coming up. So Meryl, enjoy it, man,

849
00:38:35,119 --> 00:38:37,440
enjoy the games here tonight. We will see you again

850
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,760
tomorrow for the best betting show ever on wager talk

851
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:44,000
dot com