Speaker 1: All right, welcome in best betting show ever here on
this Mondays. We have one more wild Card game to
go here tonight, Monday Night.
Speaker 2: Texans as Steelers.
Speaker 1: Learned a few things over the weekend about some of
these teams, maybe another team or two looking for some
new coaches there, merrill. But we got a parlay of
the day.
Speaker 2: We got look.
Speaker 1: Aheads to divisional rounds, we got a national championship game
coming up, a little something for everybody here. But let's start,
of course, with what we got going on here tonight,
because it's all about the Texans and the Steelers, the
last wild card of Wildcard weekend. And call me crazy,
but it lived up to its name because it was
a wild weekend in the NFL.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really was historical, and that's not an overstatement.
In fact, before we even got to the fifth game,
before the Sunday night game, the first four playoff games
had already had more fourth quarterly changes in any entire
fourth postseason in history. And you know, Joe, I saw
that on the TV during the Eagle game. Yea, and
it was like twelve of them in four games. I
was like, I couldn't be reading this right. I went
back and read it like three different times. I backed
it up, backed, and I think it was twelve lead
changes in those first four games. That's more than we'd
had in any playoff line. And let's you know, do
the math, we have what I think eleven play Yeah,
this twelve teams would be eleven playoff games. That's how
it's been. So if you some in game betting, probably
was extremely profitable if you did the zigzag approach. Not
as much in that New England game, as the Chargers
are probably the one team that didn't really deserve at
any point to cover this weekend. But yeah, it was
a complete coin flip. Missed extra points left and right,
once again affecting games. You know, going forward to the
Jacksonville game, you know, not scoring early made a huge difference.
It's wide open, not a surprise. I thought the playoffs
were wide open. I will say this though, San Francisco
beating Philly is huge because the Rams would have had
to go to Seattle otherwise if it would been Eagles Bears. Yep,
I've said coming into the postseason, I thought the Seahawks
and Rams were the two best teams in the league. Obviously,
LA looks sluggish at times against Carolina. I think Chicago's
kind of a phony two seed, a very bad defensive
team they barely won. I think Denver is a phony
one seed. We'll see how far they get, you know,
the next couple of weeks. I really do think if
it's Seattle, LA next week in the NFC Championshi game
May or a week from next week, that'll probably be
the game to decide the Super Bowl champ.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be very interesting.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've got obviously one more game slotted in
to figure out what it's gonna be. For the most part, though,
we've got lines up on that. You know, Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo,
Denver ready to go. We know the Rams, like you said,
going to Chicago. Interesting. How I believe New England now
is likely gonna is gonna take on the winner of
this game tonight, which gives them a rest advantage. So it's, uh,
it's gonna be fun. But we got to get past
text and Steelers here Meryland. Right now, the market holding
strong at what three, we're starting to see not a
whole lot happening either. With the total thirty eight is
what it looks like here pretty across the board. So
Houston still getting some of the public love. But Pittsburgh
I don't see it dropping under a field goal. So
but we know the record of teams in wildcard rounds, right,
If you don't think a team can win, don't be
hoping they can cover anything, Like, just take the team
who wins here. If you like Pittsburgh, they're likely got
to win out right for you to get a cover
in any way, shape or form.
Speaker 2: Anyway, Meryl here tonight exactly.
Speaker 3: I tell people that all the time, you don't take
underdogs hoping they cover, especially when it's a single score.
In fact, if you look at the NFL for decades,
if you blindly pick the straight up winning and the
spread is seven or less basically a single score game, yep,
you're going to cover about eighty four percent of the
time for decades now, which means means when teams cover
as a seven point dog or less, they usually win
the game outright. Which is why we always recommend sprinkling
some on the money line if you're playing points spread underdogs,
whether it's the NBA or the NFL, I do not
recommend playing money line favorites. You know, if you're going
to play this game, you lay the minus three and
once again the same reason because there's only about a
fifteen percent chance that the points brit comes into play,
and it's even less now because the odds of Houston
winning by one or two points is very now. Granted
three you get the push, but either way you're getting
a push, so it really doesn't change anything. So I
do think you handicapped this as a straight up win situation,
and home dogs do do well in the playoffs. You know,
Mark Lawrence points this out all the time every year.
I think going back to nineteen eighty he had a
thirty five and fifteen. Coming into this season, we saw
both Carolina and Chicago cover as dogs as home dogs,
and then Jacksonville. You know, depending on when you played,
it was plus one one and a half, but that
was almost a pick them at times also, So yeah,
I guess you could say they didn't cover, but that
wasn't much of a home dog. So thirty seven and fifteen,
thirty seven and sixteen, however you cut it now, does
favor the Steelers here, and that is my concern with
fading them. But then I want to have the better
team in a playoff game. I want to have the
better team in a straight up one situation, and that's Houston.
First of all, they the best defense in the NFL statistically,
points allowed and yards allowed, and a lot of other
metrics you look at. They've been just a good defensive team.
They got off to the zero to three straight up start,
they've only lost two games since over the last three months,
and the Steelers did not step up in class. Something
else I'd like to look at in the postseason is
how teams did against not just playoff teams, but quality
teams in general. Let's just take playoff teams. Steelers only
out gained one of the six playoff teams they played
this year. They were out yarded in five of those
six games by over one hundred yards on average. And
the Texans, meanwhile, we're positive in those games as well.
So I do think maybe there's a slight Aaron Rodgers
edge experience wise. But Stroud's been in the postseason, He's
played well. His numbers are similar to Rodgers this year,
and we get the much better defense. If you're going
to play it, I would lay it with Houston. Yes,
that home dog angle concerns you to just you know.
By the way, Jeff, you like a good conspiracy. Yep.
I think they want Pittsburgh in this one. And here's
all you need to know. The matchups are set because,
like you said, the winner of this game plays at
New England Sunday. Yet the networks are not announcing the
start times until after tonight. Crazy. Now, what that tells
me is if it's Pittsburgh, New England, they want to
flex it into the Sunday night spot, Whereas if it's Houston,
New England, it's going to be the early game Sunday.
I would assume what what I mean? I thought I
thought La Chicago would be the spotlight game, two of
the biggest markets in the country, right, Nope, But I
think I think Pittsburgh, New England is going to be
the Sunday or the Sunday six thirty Eastern game. Otherwise
it's Houston, New England at three. Yeah. And the betting
rotations instint too, Joe. You know, I mean, like the
don Best Rotation, Odds Logic Rotation has the New England
game ahead of it. They don't have the start times.
But Houston should win tonight, right, which means that should
be the three o'clock and they've got San franc Seattle
is the early game in the rotation Buffalo Denver that
hasn't been announced yet either. I don't know. That's my
guess as well, but it's it's interesting to me that
the odds made that the league has not announced start
times yet until the result tonight. Yeah, which tells me
they're gonna they're gonna flip it. Right, of course they're
gonna flip it.
Speaker 1: They're gonna wait to see and exactly who's playing who,
and then they'll go ahead based upon what they think
is gonna be the biggest moneymaker, and that's where they're
going to give us. But either team will be out
of rest disadvantage here against New England on Sunday, so
we'll see exactly where the NFL decides to go. I'm
having a hard time figuring out the point process here.
Speaker 2: I mean, it opened up one thirty nine and.
Speaker 1: A half, Merrill, we're down to thirty eight, and I
know it seems like a real low number. Temperature around
thirty degrees here tonight, possibly rain a little bit of
win tip Welcome to Pittsburgh in January. But my concern
with Houston is We've seen them struggle in perfect conditions
inside offensively, I you know, what are we gonna get
from them offensively? I just I'm trying to figure out
how we get the forty points here, and I'm having
a hard time getting there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you look at the team totals. We've got
Houston at twenty and a half. Yeah, Pittsburgh seventeen and
a half. That seventeen and a half is kind of tempting, right,
because that's a key number, seventeen, And as I said earlier,
Houston the number one defense in the NFL this year.
So I definitely would not argue against a Steeler team
total under seventeen and a half, especially since I kind
of leaned towards Houston. But then the Texans at twenty
and a half, at twenty one or more, yeah, you
know you would start saying, hey, yea, they've struggled at
times also, But yeah, I think that Steeler team total
under seventeen and a half is intriguing. You've got a
questionable offense against the best defense in the NFL. Thirty
eight is a low number. As you said, it open
thirty nine and a half, maybe a little bit of
early week weather concerns is baked into that. Now we're
starting to see some thirty eight and a half start
to show DraftKings has that now, So I would expect
some buyback maybe to be over by kickoff if weather
is okay. Using all games this season, opponents played yardage
points four points against. Even with the great Texan defense,
I got a fair total of around forty one. I
think it's a little bit deflated to the low.
Speaker 1: Side it is, and I would correlay whoever you think
is gonna win to the team total over. I mean,
if you're thinking Pittsburgh wins this game out right, which
is if you're picking Pittsburgh, that's the way you should.
Speaker 2: Be looking, then they're getting over.
Speaker 1: So I mean, I think it's twenty wins this This
is like twenty thirteen twenty you know, forth somewhere in
that ballpark. I don't know that we're gonna get twenty
one or more points in the air in the market.
I also don't think there's a rush to get it,
maryl because I don't think it's gonna go to thirty
seven thirty seven and a half. So if you're looking
to play the under, I don't see any rush in
having to go to the window and get it. We'll
see what we'll see what happens prior to kick. But
I think thirty eight is probably the line in the sand.
I don't see it's getting any lower than that, do you.
Speaker 3: I totally agree. DraftKings has moved to thirty eight and
a half juice under and then one of the sharpest
global books is thirty eight juice to the over right now.
So I think you're exactly right. If you like the over,
you probably grab the thirty eight now. Well, yep, if
you like the under, you might get a thirty eight
and a half. It might be more of them by kickoff,
and there is one right now, They'll probably be more
of them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there will be.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting here tonight. But a lot of
anytime touchdown props out there, of course, there are you
know CJ. Stroud, I know there's I in t props
that seem to be really popular in this How many.
Speaker 2: Sacks does Aaron Rodgers take?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 2: These are I don't know how many sacks.
Speaker 1: If listen, if Miles Garrett couldn't get to them and
they had no way of stretching the field against the Browns.
I don't know, are we one hundred percent sure that
Houston's gonna get to him and make it a sack
kind of night.
Speaker 2: It just feels like a guy who gets it out
at what.
Speaker 1: Two and a half two and a half seconds, one
of the fastest in the NFL this year. I don't
know how many hits Aaron Rodgers is gonna take tonight.
It just feels like it might be dink dunk, take
a few shots down the field with metcalf and let
the chips fall. He may, but I don't see Aaron
Rodgers holding the ball very long tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah. It sounds like he's one of the veteran greatest
quarterbacks of all time and it's a playoff game, right Yeah.
I mean it's like you can't imagine he's going to
do something to hurt the cause. And I do think
that correlates with maybe how you play some of the
passing attacks for the Steelers, you know, And I mentioned
this in the I had the under best bet on
the under in the Chargers Patriots game for my clients.
I gave that out in the free play video and
in the video I also said I think it correlates
to how you play some receiver and passing props. Look
at the yardage props to the under, whether it's for
Aaron Rodgers or any of the Steeler receivers, but be
very careful with completion and reception props because a lot
of it is almost like a semi run game. Like
you said, a little quick dump offs and whatnot. You
can really add up the receptions and the completions and
even the attempts. So I think the yardage props in
this one once again, I would look receiver props, maybe
Aaron Rodgers passing yardage props under, but be very careful
with completions or receptions anything like that because those could
still add up. And if you look at the Steelers
in recent weeks, I mean they've had very few good
passing games. In fact, yeah, I cuckulate, like only one
really good passing game in the last two or three months,
and that was actually at Baltimore in that win, that
high scoring back and forth win. But the Texans defense
is at another level.
Speaker 1: Yeah there's and again Nico Collins took off last week.
He'll be back in this game. Metcalf's prop by the way,
receiving yards fifty six and a half fifty seven and
a half.
Speaker 2: Here, he's the guy that can stretch the field.
Speaker 1: He's the one guy that that defense can't cheat and
try to take the underneath stuff away because he'll burn you.
I don't care if Stingley's on him, ahu wan. He's
a guy that you got to be worried about on
the back end. So, you know, do I see Aaron Rodgers?
I think his longest pass completed pass was thirty three
and a half or thirty four and a half yards.
Do we see him going deep and completing one? Because
it's either Metcalf or Austin I don't know who else
it is.
Speaker 2: At that point.
Speaker 3: That's what makes you a little nervous of the prop.
Like that also is if they're the underdog, which they are,
if you think they're going to be losing the game
in the second half, Yeah, you know, and you see
that in all these games teams get that junk thirty
or forty yard pass down the middle when the when
the prevent defense leaves it open. My spidy senses tell
me that would be the risk there. So once again
that's going to correlate, as you know, to like how
you think the game is going to play out if
you're if you actually like but if you like Pittsburgh,
they probably have a big play at some point also,
so prop like that would make me a little nervous. Yep.
Speaker 1: And Gainwell has been fantastic for them out of the
backfield of five and a half receptions. He's been one
of the favorite targets of Aaron Rodgers here as of late,
especially when Metcalf was suspended. So I'm sure he's going
to get plenty enough opportunities to get some yards in
this one here tonight. But should be a lot of
fun to watch who advances and takes on New England.
Speaker 2: One way or the other.
Speaker 1: But when you look back, merrill at some of these
games and Wildcard and what are some of the takeaways here,
because I think you mentioned some of the record breaking stats,
including the fact I think we had more games this
week that were decided by a team scoring a touchdown
on their final possession than we have had. And I
think the history of the NFL, if I read it correctly,
you know you had Buffalo, you got all of these teams,
You got the Rams their last possession resulting in a touchdown,
and it was good enough to win them the game.
That's kind of crazy when you think about it, in
a wildcard round.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the first four games, we had twelve league
changes in the fourth quarter. We've never had that many,
and eleven playoff games combined. Crazy And then I think
all four winners trailed with less than two minutes ago
in all four of those games. So it's just crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely nuts the kind of week.
Speaker 1: And and by the way, those hoping that Lafleur would
be fired for the wonderful play calling with four minutes
left to go in that game where he decided to
call up three bombs for some reason, uh and stop
the clock and just gave Chicago back the ball. Unfortunately,
it looks like they're working on a deal for an extension,
so that is happening with Green Bay right now. But
I don't I mean a lot of people think McDermott
saved his job Maryland. I don't think McDermott saved his
his job.
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think his job was in jeopardy.
In jeopardy, I mean, and I think I think I mean, yeah,
I said, the loser of the Baltimore Pittsburgh game was
probably gonna get fired. And then on that I mean
that kick may be very well made a difference in
that game between Tomlin and Harball, but no, I mean
I think McDermott this will be also I say about
today too, Joe, like look at his Romani in the
Super Bowl. If you think experience matters, yes, Like it's
really like the Rams and the Bills. Who else is there?
I mean the Seattle lineup hasn't had any experience, New
England has, it's Chicago definitely has. In Denver, as I
said earlier, I think they're a phony one seed. They don't.
I mean maybe Pittsburgh. I guess if Aaron Robert II
of they they're gonna go too far. Houston doesn't. So
the only experienced team remaining is Buffalo, and they'd just
be Jacksonville had no experience, and then even the Chargers.
So it's really just the Bills. And then you look
in the NFC, the Rams, I guess the forty nine ers,
you could say the forty nine ers or the other
experienced team, and the Eagles obviously would have been So
if you think that matters, and historically speaking, I mean
not to get to the Super Bowl, but to win
the Super Bowl, it's usually a team that's got some
kind of Super Bowl experience either they've lost there. It's
like Rams forty nine ers versus the Bills. I mean,
so if you want to, you know, do some future
plays or some like you know, exact matchups and get
a nice price, that wouldn't be the worst way to
attack it. I still think Seattle and La are the
two best teams. The Rams have a very tough road.
You know, they barely be Caroline. They got to win
in Chicago, then they're gonna have to win in Seattle.
But you know, we saw them blow that game on
Thursday night a few weeks ago. Seattle played them tough
both times, but that could go either way. But you
do almost wonder now that Buffalo got by Jacksonville, like
if it's not starting to set up really well well,
because if they win, they go to New England. New England,
you don't have was twenty one nothing. They had a
huge lead on him a few weeks ago, but the
Bill still found a way to win it. Yep, that's
another incredible stat the Josh Allen stad he did it
again this week. Crazy was it like thirty thirty six.
Now I think it was thirty five at the time,
Like thirty six fourth quarter comebacks or too many it
must be fourth quarter wins or when trailing in the fourth.
That's really a remarkable stet. I mean, most guys aren't
even in the situation to do that thirty six times.
Speaker 1: Nobody's better in December and January than what Josh Allen
has been since two thousand. I mean, I told you, Meryl,
we talked about it last week. The fact that they
had been twelve playoff games since twenty twenty with Josh
Allen and this was the first one actually outside of
Orchard Park or Kansas City is crazy to me. But yeah,
there he goes. They go to Jacksonville, they get it
done in epic fashion. Now they get to go to
Denver and we'll talk about these early numbers on the
divisional round.
Speaker 2: But let's get to.
Speaker 1: A parlay of the day. It's not a huge card
in the NBA, not a huge card in college basketball.
We got one NFL game going on, Meryl. But if
you were going to pick a leg here, where would
you look here tonight?
Speaker 2: On the card?
Speaker 3: Making me dig deep here, because as we said, the
NFL game could see it going both ways. The NBA
board is thin, to say the least, and then the
college basketball board is all extra games. Every one of
them is an extra game, all six digit rotation numbers.
I don't think I've ever seen that before, Joe, Like
on a normal Monday, like a non holiday Monday, Yep, crazy, Yep.
That kind of tells you what you're dealing with a
few NBA games. Call my either, I'll tell you what
I'll take the contrarian call. I did a free play
video on this one, so I'll double dip. Gave this
on a wager Talk today. But Jalen Brown's doubtful. The
Celtics were going to be a nine point favorite. It's
now just five and a half six Indiana. We talked
about them on Friday. They finally got that one thousand win.
They snapped the thirteen game losing streaking against Charlotte as
we thought they might, and they've actually now won back
to back games. They beat your Miami Heat as well
on Saturday. But you know, we see this all the time,
these shorthanded teams outperform like the Celtics. They're coming up
for loss to San Antonio. This is a huge step
down in class pacers coming off back to back straight
up dog wins. It's actually a little bit of a
flat spot instead of line laying nine with laid not
five and a half. So I'll take a flyer with
the shorthanded Boston Celtics minus five and a half. It's
just an angle that keeps all working year after you were.
It feels yucky even when I use it, but it
just keeps winning more than it loses.
Speaker 2: I love that, all right. Well, if you're going contrarian,
I'm going contrarian.
Speaker 1: I will take the points with Nichols stayed here tonight,
taking on, of course, everybody's favorite McNee State, who is still,
let's face it, the class of the Southland, right. They
had a lot of success, getting a lot of publicity,
a lot of headlines here over the last year, and
they always continue because of that Meryl to get these
ridiculous lines. And now, granted, Nickels State started what owen seven,
but took on a gauntlet of teams they probably had
no business ever playing or whatever gonna win. But they
have ripped off eight wins in their last nine games.
And call me crazy, I mean they've covered I believe
three of the last four times they've played in this series.
This is too many points. Fourteen Nickel State's not going
to be intimidated here. I'll take the fourteen points McNee State. Yeah,
they might win, but they win by more than two touchdowns.
I'm not buying it, Meryl. I'll take the points here tonight.
In a little Southland action.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a good example of what we talked about,
like how you have to separate preseason, which is non
conference versus the January February games. This is a team,
like you said, started oh and seven, they played Kentucky,
Oklahoma State, Creighton, Tulane, Murray State, Valparaso, and they have
since gone eight and one straight up yeap, including seven
to zero in this conference against like opponents. Yep. Yeah,
it's a very The odds makers really struggle with games
like this because it's that age old debate, you know,
how much do you wait? You know, current form versus
overall numbers. And I think this is an extreme example
where you really have to look at apples to apples,
which is conference play. Yep. By the way, these are
two of the best turnover forcing teams in the country.
They're both like top eleven percentage of turnovers for so
this will be a back and forth game. McNeice does
take better care of the ball, but I still think
Nichols plays well enough. And yeah, you gotta be careful,
like looking at all the overall games this year, because
if you look at conference only stats, it's probably a
single digit game.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And there by the way, they're all for five against
the number. And just to go show you how much
you know over value they are. With all the hype
around this team, they were laying six and a half
against Southeast Louisiana, didn't cover, didn't cover, the ten and
a half against you know, Austin, just go to Lamar,
didn't cover. They just keep giving these absurd numbers to
this team and they yeah, they win the game, but
they ain't covering by that many. So I'll take the
fourteen here tonight with Nickel State against mcneese's State. Now,
a lot of people having a hard time merrow with
the Buffalo Bills being a favorite here on the road
against Denver, but it feels like, now, listen, they didn't
go off the favorite. I mean there was a ton
of Jacksonville late money which pushed them to minus two
even minus two and a half Jacksonville. So ironically enough,
the public love Buffalo all week, but they closed the
dog here by the time that game kicked off in
Jacksonville yesterday. So are we looking at the same thing
possibly happening here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's what people make
of that Buffalo win. If they feel as impressive they're
down with a minute to go in that game, you know,
they get the what I think should be illegal offensive
lineman carrying the quarterback ten yards to the goal line.
I mean, Andy Lane and Dan Alexander and Witch Talk
today did not understand why it was upset about there. Now,
Granny I had Jacksonville. Maybe that's why I was upset.
It cost me a three, cost me a three and
o NFL sweep, a four and oh sweep with NBA
and NFL and Sunday, so I went three and one instead.
But it just looks weird to me, And I know
when I was playing, I still don't think you could
do that in high school Like that just seems like
a safety issue. So the rule probably is different, But
I didn't think back in the eighties and nineties you
could do that in the NFL either. I did not
think you could push somebody, and that was changed. I
don't know, it looked like rugby. I'm already devising ways
that we could take like a three foot one guy
when I'm not using him in my basis leaded Baseball
World Series game for the automatic walk of the plate,
we just take him and throw him over the line
of scrimmage into the end zone. I don't understand. Is
that an illegal forward pass if he's holding the ball.
I don't see a problem with it. Yeah, but I
think there's a lot of angles here we could use.
So Yeah, but that's why I would saying too, like
Jacksonville probably technically wasn't a home dog, you know, to
qualifying that thirty seven and fifteen angle. I'm not surprised
though Denver is a phony one seed. As I said,
I'm not sure Buffalo is not phony. Also, I actually
think Jacksonville was better than Buffalo and Denver this season. Defensively,
both teams are much better than Buffalo. The difference is
Jacksonville had a good offense, Denver does not not. You know. Also,
you see recreational people and fans say, oh, winning is
all that counts and that's bull And you know that, Joe,
because you know what The point spread is based on
margin of victory and schedule strength. It's that simple. The
point spread really isn't it's some magical formulas. It's what
you win by factory and opponents played and Denver, game
after game this year had one margin wins. They showed
the only team that had had more. They broke the record,
which was Kansas City last year. Yeah, and we saw
how flat Kansas City turned out to be in the
Super Bowl and how bad they turned out to be
this year. Minnesota Vikings were one of those teams that
had near record a few years ago one margin wins.
They've regressed big time. So it is an indication that
a team maybe is not as good as a record.
And you look at New England meanwhile, they do probably
think overall they're the better team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's going to be interesting to find on
the line movement in that one. We did see, of course,
uh seven and a half's open up with San Francisco
and Seattle Merril and it looks like sevens now.
Speaker 2: It looks like it's come back.
Speaker 1: But I don't think we're ever gonna get under a
touchdown in this one.
Speaker 2: Here to you.
Speaker 3: So I had Seattle a couple of weeks ago as
a strong best bet as a you know, one and
a half point road favorite. It went up to two
and a half. The public was all over San Francisco.
They made my fad the public video back in week eighteen.
It was a public dog. The sharp money was on Seattle,
including me. It was the best bet for my clients.
It was in the free play video. So I liked
Seattle in that game. But San Francisco is still a
game away from being the number one seed. You know,
so everyone and everyone was fading them. Last week it
went from three and a half to six. They beat
Philly outright. Seattle's rested and will also see how the
rest effects these two teams. I think Seattle's ad a
bigger risk, by the way, for not coming out of
the buy well because they're more of an offensive team.
It's not gonna hurt Denver as much because Denver's more
defensive base. They're not an explosive offense. They had the
thin air and altitude as well, so I think Seattle's
actually a dicier spot as the once. Even though they're
a better team. I just don't feel like there's seven
and a half points better than San Francisco. You said
it has come down to seven, though, we'll see where
it settles. That's probably most likely spot. I know a
lot of sports books are kind of juice teasers, too
much to play, but Dinver plus seven and a half
Seattle minus one and a half looks like a really
good six point teaser. Though on Saturday, if you want
to tie it up for some action.
Speaker 2: It does.
Speaker 1: And maybe no, no more public action and public team.
Speaker 2: And we talked to Art last week here, Meryl.
Speaker 1: Then the National Championship game and the Indiana Hoosiers, who
are now I am seeing nines popping up in the
marketplace as the tickets and the money continue to.
Speaker 2: Roll in on Indiana.
Speaker 1: And I've been saying, I just told Andy on wager
Talk today, listen, if you like Miami, there is no rush.
Speaker 2: To bet them out.
Speaker 1: Could let the public do and air thing and let
the money come rolling in. We'll see how high this
line can get, Meryll. But there is no doubt they
are betting this one like they bet the Eagles against
forty nine ers. You'd be hard pressed to find anybody
running tho the window with a Miami bet because it
appears to be all Indiana at this point.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I had a strong best bet on Indiana for
my clients last Friday night, and as I'm watching it,
you know, I'm like, this is nice, but unfortunately it's
taken away any value I'm gonna have with playing them
in the championship game. Because you and I talked about
the advanced line of both FanDuel and DraftKings bettable numbers
last Friday as we did this show was five and
a half. That was a betable line. Right as the
game ended, I pulled them up to see where they
would be. I was like, obviously it's gonna be higher,
Like where they have to price you to get me
less interested. I was like, well, would have to be
seven and a half or more. You'd have to get
over that key number of seven. And when I pulled
it up Friday night, it was with about a minute
to go in the game, it was seven and a
half at both spots, and all the other worldwide books
were opening seven and a half. I was like, that
makes a lot of sense. Now it's eight and a half.
As you said, there's some nines even to show. But
Indiana is a better team. They're an explosive team on
both sides of the ball. They're the better team on
both sides of the ball. Now, Miami does have a
slight home edge here, we'll see how much that matters.
We don't tease college football normally, but with a total
of forty nine and eight and a half, Indiana is
actually in a good teaser spot once again. Also, so
a lot of games here catch my eye for teasers.
I mean, Seattle down to one and a half, yep,
the Nuggets, the bronc goes up to seven and a half,
you know, good defensive team at home against the Bills
who are on a great defensive team, and then Indiana
down to two and a half is a basic straight
up win situation. So a lot of options. And you know,
sportsbooks don't give you great odds on teasers anymore, but
some of them have. It tremendously changed the three team teasers,
so you could round robin those into twos, or you
could actually just do a three teamer and have a
lot of fun with it. I like those three teaser options.
Speaker 1: Though, I'll tell you it is for a line that
continues to rise. The totals not moving. It looks like
we got a ton of tickets on the over with
the Hurricanes and the Hoosiers. But there's enough under money
here that's not moving it. It's locked in at forty
eight and a half, so it'll be interesting to see the.
Speaker 2: Path of these lines.
Speaker 1: We got a week before this game is played, but
so far it's been all Indiana money in the marketplace
at this point. All right, we got six games in
the NBA, Meryl, handful of games in the college basketball ranks.
We'll run through a couple for you guys. But before
we do, it is, of course time for some business.
And Merrill loves this picture of the pres here, so
you start us off. Meryl, tell us what you got
rolling over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3: Meant to mention this on wager Talk today. You'll appreciate it. Joe,
So I'm flipping around. I had the charge of Patriot
game home, but that was a pretty boring game last night,
so I'm flipping around during commercials. Princess Bride is on
the CW network, so I'll watch some of that, and
then the Jerk is on one of the movie channels.
And then right after the jerk was Airplane, which is
one of the three greatest comedies of all time. And
then I closed it off going to bed last night
with some trading places which I came across again. But
in Airplane, the disco scene, he goes poo, he shoots
the bullets out exactly. So he just made me think
of watching Airplane last night when I see the pres
doing that. Anyway, I digress. Anyway, I'm trying to avoid
talking about this NBA or college The disco scene right there,
and then right after that is when he was teaching
the African tribe to play basketball, and he developed the
drinking problem and takes the gatorade, pours it in the
cup and splashes it right over his face. Soon after
is when I developed a drinking problem. Such a great movie.
You need to find somebody that can find this Airplane
and he didn't have fish for dinner. That's maybe my
great and the greatest sign of all in there. Oh
so great. Oh anyway, not a lot in the NBA
college shoops tonight. But as you know, I always post
a free play on my page, So go to my
page every day get the bonus free play with analysis.
It's truly the last Cup. From my best bet card,
Steve merrillwager talk dot com. You get there, quicker, WT
dot buzz, slash sm and I'm doing every single NFL
playoff game. I've got the free video up a deep
dive into the Texans Steelers game tonight here on wager
Talk TV, and I'll have all four games for this
weekend as well as click subscribe click the belt for
instant alerts. Thumbs up. Like these shows and videos in
a positive comment below, because we read the comments, we
apply back here on wager Talk TV.
Speaker 2: Great stuff.
Speaker 1: All right, we are lockloaded ready to go tonight in
College Basketball one NBA, and we are ready to roll
in this game tonight between Pittsburgh and Houston, all available
over at wager talk dot com. But let's talk about
these horrific NBA games that we do going on tonight.
The game that interested me the most merrill was the
game that we got a little movement overnight, as the
Clippers were a six and a half point favorite, six
point favorite overnight. Woke up this morning and now all
of a sud on this down to four four and
a half. I haven't seen anybody listed is out yet,
but the you know, Charlotte's coming off a one hundred
and fifty.
Speaker 2: Point beatdown of the Jazz.
Speaker 1: I find it interesting Clippers at home have been playing
obviously their best basketball. A lot of love for Charlotte
in the market overnight here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think some of it might just be that
Charlotte's kind of been a play on team here in
recent weeks. You know, obviously a young team, as I
told you, I've seen them play this year. Bell was
sitting out of that game, but Kannopo had over thirty
against the Jazz the game I went to back early November.
So there's a little bit of energy with that squad.
And as we know, with load management, right we never
know who's playing who's not. One thing you know with
the bad teams is that they don't have everybody the
load management because they're not worried about the postseason. They
don't have a lot of star power. So we have
been getting some good efforts from Charlotte here in recent weeks,
and the points spreads have shown that as well. This
team is now six and one against the spread the
last seven, and going back further, they're ten and two
against the spread. Actually nine and two their last eleven,
so they've been the most profitable team in the NBA
since the last week in December. Clippers, though, hey, you know,
not too bad as well. They're nine and two their
last eleven against the spread. So I've kind of with
you on that Joe road win against Detroit as a dog,
you know, coming off the three game road trip one
day back. Not a great setup is probably the reason
we've seen this line drop a bit. But still, do
you really trust the Hornets plus five? This is we
talked about earlier. They almost have to win the game
at that price range. Not something I'm interested in.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: And then, of course, have you seen the total in
the Utah Cleveland game, because it bears mentioning because we
are now up to two hundred and fifty points here
as a total between Utah and Cleveland, and I don't
even know if marketing is playing or not with Utah.
I'm not sure where we're getting that many. That's an
awful lot of points here, Meryll, even I get that,
you know, one hundred and fifty points were just tropped
on Utah.
Speaker 2: But they didn't play anybody like I mean, really, two
fifty already is that what we're doing.
Speaker 3: So the game I saw in Charlotte was against Utah,
as I referenced and market, it had like he had
over twenty some points by the third quarter, and the
Jets were losing by like twenty or thirty points to
the Hornets. So I remember thinking that at that time, Joe, like,
this is a really bad team. They've got what's considered
like a top ten player who's quietly had like almost
thirty points and three quarters and they're still getting blown out.
That's how bad their defense is. So here again, maybe
just look at a team total instead and just play
the Cleveland team total up and over, which is one
thirty one and a half, and that seems big, but
it's doable. Utah's at one eighteen and a half. They
probably get there as well. And I know I've said
this for years, You've always heard me say it. Ralph
Michael says as well. The highest totals go over, the
lowest totals go under. This open two forty six and
a half, it's up to two fifty two to fifty
and a half. And the reason it works is because
they don't truly price these games where they should be
because the public kind of like with the injury games,
you know, they get apprehensive, they just stay away from them.
So if you're going to play it, the only way
to play this up and over, but you can also
look at those team total options as well to split
it up a big getting a little bit more reasonable.
Speaker 1: Yep, kind of like that there here tonight, just six
games there. We went over the college basketball. We both
have a couple of looks there for you. Not a
ton going on in the swack in the Southland there,
but Nickels State seems to be one that we certainly
pointed to that we liked. You've got a little American
versus Navy. What do you do in that situation too?
Meryll And we like the Patriot League where Navy got
bounced by American in the final last year and they
end up punching their ticket to March Madness. And Navy
was the better team all year long and just went
cold in that game. But now they've got an opportunity
here to exact a little revenge here. Do you think teams,
especially a team like Navy that still has a lot
of their guys from that team a year ago, do
you think that Navy remembers that loss.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just gonna say, I mean most revenge
spots nothing anymore because none of the players are saying.
But if there's one squad, like you said, Joe, that
would have the same makeup, it's the Service Academy as
well as they didn't graduate. So I agree with you there.
When I was doing the Bowl videos by one of
the comments was fantastic. I need to start clipping these
and giving people credit. But we were talking about opt outs
and how you know the Service academies always do well
Bowl games because one of the reasons is that you
can't opt out. They always have their lineups. One of
the comments is said, if you opt out of a
Bowl game of the Service Academy is called a wall.
I thought that was hilarious, so I like that that
was a great line. I was like, what, it's actually true.
It's funny because it's true. Yeah, you get a clean
handicap now because of the Service academies. You know what
you're getting. Maybe Surprisingly does not take a lot of
three pointers, and you would think this would be like
an Air Force team that used to take half their
shots from three. Navy actually scores a lot down low.
They're a very effective defensive team. It's not what you
would expect from Navy basketball, and American doesn't give up
many threes, but they're pretty suspect down low with their
two point defense. So this looks like a good matchup
for Navy, and I do think it's one of those
legitimate revenge spots. They'll be focused as well. I agree.
Speaker 1: I think there's some value in it there. So there
you go, guys, little NBA, little college basketball. A little
look ahead here to the divisional round. Not to mention
the game tonight between the Texans and the Steelers. Don't
forget to hit that like button, make sure you hit
that subscribe button, and of course come back and join
us again tomorrow as we have maybe the press, maybe
not maybe Meryll, maybe Brian power One never knows these days.
And he's apparently still at the poker table. I don't
know if he knows whose poker table it is, but
apparently he's at a poker table. Merrill, is that what
you hear in the press.
Speaker 3: You and I were told, you told me Friday he
was not doing well, but your dinner date apparently got canceled.
And then he calls me this week, and it said
he needs me almost certainly for Monday and Tuesday. He said,
point blank, Steve, I'm doing really well. It's almost a certainy.
I'll need you Monday and Tuesday to fill in. Now,
he made it sound like it was poker tournament. I
think he did say poker. But then again, he might
just be playing his dad head to head like it
is dominating his dad at poker. He might be doing
very well in that matchup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's doing well with his canasta game right
now against his own man. So that's wonderful stuff there.
So that means you and I again tomorrow. Art the
season there, Meryl can't wait to do it. We'll have
updates live from the book there with Art will get
you all set up. What a huge card in college
basketball NBA and of course get ready for the divisional
round that is coming up. So Meryl, enjoy it, man,
enjoy the games here tonight. We will see you again
tomorrow for the best betting show ever on wager talk
dot com