Speaker 1: The comments section owes us an apology. Headed into NFL
Week ten, those barking Dogs swept and those best bets
should have.
Speaker 2: But that guy named c. J.
Speaker 1: Stroud got knocked out in the second quarter and somehow
the Denver Broncos won that football game.
Speaker 2: We're back this week with more barking dogs.
Speaker 1: The steam room is the deli back open because it
has been red hot as well, And of course more
of those best bets up next on bet on It NFL.
All right, we're gonna get right into it with some
of the primetime games, and.
Speaker 2: This one is rather intriguing.
Speaker 1: So I have my Odd's Logic screen open and I
keep waiting to see that elusive eight and a half
at the book that I love to bet the teasers
on Marco Thursday Night Football, the Lost Vegas Raiders are
headed to Denver. Total forty one and a half. Talk
to me about this Raiders team. You were high on
them last week. They did get the cover for you,
but Pete Carroll decided he wasn't gonna play for that tie.
Speaker 3: No, when you got the record that the Raiders have,
you can't possibly play for the tie. You gotta go
for it. It was the right decision, and I would
love to have them win out right, because you know
the comments section Kelly, as she said, we got a
lot of them last week, and this was one of
the games that I got a lot of comments because
I said I was going to take the Raiders and
if you remember, I said Gino Smith was gonna have
his best game of the season. He threw four touchdown
passes in that game.
Speaker 4: Last week.
Speaker 3: They had two weeks to prepare for that game. They
were coming off the bye week and coming off the
most embarrassing loss that you could have. They lost thirty
one to nothing to Kansas City. Going into that bye game,
that game was could have been fifty to nothing. Kansas
City stopped attacking in the second half. To be totally
honest with you, Andy Reid did not want to embarrass
Pete Carroll in that game. He acts literally was taking
a knee with four minutes to play in the game,
not to score. But they did what they had to do.
Speaker 4: Last week.
Speaker 3: They had a good showing and why Jacksonville to be
a favorite on the road even though they were coming
off of bye week two, I just couldn't buy it.
But now you come back on a short week. Okay,
you gave your big effort and you came up short
once again. This is a team that the season is
lost for the Raiders, and if they already didn't see
that reality, they saw it yesterday when they traded away.
It's a trade deadline. Their second best offensive player in
Jacoby Myers. Okay, where are they going to get the
point production on this offense? Ashton Genty, I think is
a bust as a six round pick. They went too
high for him. Also, the best player they got is
Brock Bauers, and now he's gonna be double teamed every
pass attempt because they got no other threat. I can't
look at the Raiders, but I'm not gonna lay the
points with Denver either, because Denver's in a spot here.
They're playing their third game in eleven days. They're playing
laying a big number and bow Knicks has not been
lighting it up. Definitely a sophomore jinx for bow Knicks.
Denver did hold Houston to five field goals last week,
but it was some really bad play calling and the
fact that CJ. Stroud got knocked out of the game
in the second quarter. Given that it is the short
week and as they said, the schedule that Denver's just
come off of, with all of the travel, I'm gonna
look to the total. This is a classic game. We
said the same thing with Denver a couple of weeks
ago when they played in that London game. They want
to get in and get out, and how you do
that is you run the football, shorten the game and
not expose bo Knicks to making mistakes. They shouldn't have
to throw the football much in this game against the
Raiders to get enough to win. I'm gonna take the
under in this game. I just don't see either team
getting enough points. Denver has scored twenty eight or fewer
points in seven of their nine games this year, and
in five of those seven it was twenty points or less.
And I sure as heck don't see the Raiders scoring
points on this Denver defense. So for me, Thursday Night
football could be a snooze fest. But that's okay if
you got the under. We cashed an under last week
on Thursday Night football. Let's get another one this week.
Take under in the Denver Raider game.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I feel like those Thursday night football games have been
more snooze fest at least than offensive powerhouses.
Speaker 4: Let's go.
Speaker 1: We were at a Sunday night football VR. This is
a game that I couldn't quite figure out other than
from a teaser standpoint. Pittsburgh catching two and a half
at the Los Angeles Chargers total forty four and a half.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and if it goes to two and a half
across the board, you definitely want to look to tease
the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a nice teaser opportunity, especially
since we've seen a little under money come in off
that forty six and a half look ahead.
Speaker 5: Also, the look ahead.
Speaker 6: Was four and a half, went to three and a half.
That got hit as well picked off some of the threes.
That's why a lot of two and a half's are
on the board. So Steelers got some steam. And I'm
gonna tell you why I using the Steelers for the
TV bet. I haven't released it to subscribers. I haven't
gotten to the window with it. I didn't get the four,
so I got to think whether I'm gonna get there
with the three. Here's the bottom line. These two teams
are extremely comparable. That's why it's a dogg or pass situation.
Other than the home field advantage, for the Chargers, which
don't really have one and even this year don't really
have one. They've won three or four games on the road,
they're three and two at home. In fact, their win
percentage is better on the road.
Speaker 5: So as far as.
Speaker 6: Home field advantage is, what are you gonna give them
one to one and a half points? So anything a
field goal or better look to be the value side
with the Steelers. And again here's why strength of schedule.
Steelers has had this tougher strength of schedule. In fact,
the Chargers had the twenty ninth toughest schedule to date.
One of the reasons I bet over season wins for
the Chargers and a future on them. And they've got
the seventeenth most efficient offense and the eleventh most efficient defense.
Now that's what the twenty ninth toughest schedule the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The weak side of the football for them has been defense.
They're barely a top twenty defensive team. With that said,
they're now going up against an offense where that's not
the strength of the Chargers, and they've had a weak
strength of schedule. So if anything, this is a week
where you're gonna see the Steelers defense look better than
they have in weeks pens. And then when I get
to the offensive side of the ball, I give the
nod to the Steelers. Efficient Wise, there are a couple
slots ahead of the Chargers. Back to my conclusion that
this is as close to a coin flip type of
game as you're going to get. You look at these
two teams record wise, they're comparable, point differential, they're comparable.
They're efficiency on both sides of the ball. They're comparable
with a couple edges on the Pittsburgh side, and strength
of schedule edge to the Steelers. Once again, if you
could get points in what looks like a coin flip,
it's like getting plus money on a coin flip.
Speaker 5: You gotta take it. So right now I'm looking at
dogg or pass. But I've been getting really good information on.
Speaker 6: These primetime games, at them like nine to two on
the last eleven and we swept Monday night football.
Speaker 5: So got to wait for confirmation. That's why I haven't
gotten to the window.
Speaker 6: And I want to make sure I make that disclaimer
because if you find me on Pittsburgh come Sunday night,
I don't want to on the Chargers or something like that.
Speaker 5: Don't when anyone pissed.
Speaker 6: But if the game was going off the night and
I had to bet it, I'd be on the Steelers.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Well, that's why they can tune in to either Last
on Sundays with you in Ariel, or to the steam
Room NFL edition noon easterns Eastern before kickoff on Sundays
and hang out. Remember those insiders do get special privileges
here and there to those steam rooms in addition to
your premium clients. All right, Monday Night football. This is
a this is kind of a weird line. I'm not
gonna lie to you. Looking at Philadelphia catching two and
a half, we might see some threes popping up here
on the odds lot screen come kickoff, And I understand
why people like Green Bay in this spot. I really
do them coming off that wonky loss. Shout out Marco
for calling that one and keeping me off Green Bay
there in at least the survivor pools, that would have
been ug lee. That being said, Bay has just been
terrible in those spots as big favorites this season. They're
zero to five against the spread when laying more than
six points. Of course, this is a tighter range than
that one is. And green Bay started off the season
red hot, right beating Detroit right there out of the
gate and basically kind of running the table. Everybody thought, hey,
this is a Packers team that has a shot to
win the super Bowl.
Speaker 2: But since then there are one in six against the spread.
Speaker 1: Now they're without one of their best weapons in Tucker Craft,
who tore his acl Speaking of weapons, it looks like
aj Brown will be coming back for the Eagles. Keep
an eye on Saquon Barkley. He is listed as questionable
as we are filming the show here on Wednesday afternoon.
I think this Philadelphia team knows that they're underdogs. Why
because not only are they five and zero against the
spread in their last five tries as underdogs.
Speaker 2: They're five and oh straight up.
Speaker 1: They want to win against teams that maybe are superior,
at least as a point spread ranking. But I don't
think this Green Bay team is superior. I think this
two teams.
Speaker 2: Are neck and neck.
Speaker 1: How much home field does an advantage in Lamba Well,
of course it's Lambeau. It's freezing cold, the place is rocking,
but not more than anywhere else.
Speaker 2: So as far as the Eagles catching two and a half.
Speaker 1: I have to use them in a teaser here with
this lower total of forty four and a half, it
looks like it, Marco said before we hit record.
Speaker 2: This looks like the easiest teaser all week. Fine, did
I get to take the easiest teaser of the week.
Speaker 1: VR give everybody a little excerpt of what they may
see on the steam Room.
Speaker 2: I know you go into it a lot more.
Speaker 1: In depth on Sundays, but as it stands on Wednesday afternoon,
you guys have already fired on a few things.
Speaker 5: Let's hear where they are.
Speaker 6: Yeah, even released them. Bring THEMS out to subscribers, and
that's what we do in the steam room. We go
through each in every NFL game, top the bottom, I
share signs, total, any player prompts. I have been given
out a lot of player prop in there as well,
because I can't use them for subscribers because as they
come in, their time sensitive lines move a little bit
too quickly on some of those there to answer all
your questions, any games that you have, survivor contest questions,
I get, teaser questions I get. We also put those
plus CB teasers together towards the end of our hour
and yeah, I'm there working for you and more importantly
accountable to my subscribers where we go over our results
and talk about risk management. So far, it's been celebratory results,
especially in football. Now here's some of the moves that
I've already seen in accounts that I work with NFL.
Start off with two fifty three Cleveland. We'll jump right
into Sunday plus two plus one minus one and a half.
That's why the flavors flip. But I'll tell you this,
when it got the highest two and a half, they
didn't even wait for three.
Speaker 5: That's when you saw money in on the Jets. Again.
Speaker 6: I keep stressing, it shows you just how tight these
NFL lines. And I do not like reading in the comments,
Oh what's this STEM report for? You're telling us lines
that moves every single game, line moves. I don't think
there's a single game where you're not going to get
a line move. I'm here to clarify what the line
move represents. Is it public money? Is is sharp money?
Is it the books adjusting based on information? That's what
you got to be digging into. And more importantly, you
take this information than you follow your odds logic screen
and you see is what a saying confirmed? Or am
I now seeing a change and resistance in the market.
That's when you have to put in your work. That's
why this information is priceless and valuable. If you just
look at it like, oh that line move that can't
use it again, don't be square, don't do that move
On the two fifty six Carolina plus minus four minus
four and a half in Carolina and the under forty
two and a half, that was the look ahead, they
bet the forty two as well, that stuck out two
fifty nine Jacksonville. They wiped out the key number of
plus three and then hit the two and a half
as well, sprinkled the money line and steamed that game
under the look ahead of forty one and a half,
then went under even thirty nine and a half when
they adjusted so under steam on the Jacksonville games, legit
Baltimore and Minnesota. See this is where you want to
pay attention. Are they going to come back? Is this
just getting out ahead of the public based on some
recency bias of teams that put up a lot of
points because they went and bet the over forty six
and a half forty seven and forty eight in the
Baltimore Minnesota game two seventy two Rams minus three and
three and a half off that key number because minus
three was the look ahead.
Speaker 5: So that's what you got to pay attention to.
Speaker 6: Is it the look ahead which got hit because those
limits are small and then the books get a chance
to adjust or after the adjustment, did it get hit again.
That's what happened with the Rams two seventy three Pittsburgh,
which I touched on plus four and a half, plus
three and a half and the under forty six and
a half forty five and a half. And when it
got the forty four and a half, that's when you
started seeing over money in sharp accounts. So again difference
of opinion on the total once it moves significantly. And
finally they took the three with Philly on Monday night,
not a surprise key number. Looks like public money is
starting to side a little bit more with Philly. Again,
it's way too early, but you're not getting you know,
one sided Green Bay money, So I wasn't surprised they
came off that key three already.
Speaker 5: We will touch up.
Speaker 6: On this again on last call Sunday and more importantly
in the steam room with detail.
Speaker 5: That's the luck. Whether you follow or fade. I just
hope you make some money off the information.
Speaker 2: That is the plan.
Speaker 1: We love making money and starts with those barking underdogs,
which we swept on last week. Crazy because Marco gave
out the Panthers and VR gave out the Vikings.
Speaker 5: Tell me how I don't want. I won't know anything
about football.
Speaker 6: Go ahead, got gay just because I don't sit there
like a fanboy and jerk off the wide receivers. That's
for my same game parlay. Doesn't mean I don't pay attention.
Forgive me, forgive me, but you just got to tell
it how it is.
Speaker 5: I think what matters.
Speaker 6: What matters about cashing tickets, not not cheering in some
Jersey number.
Speaker 5: That's what I care about. Cashing tickets numbers.
Speaker 6: Nobody cares about your man, even for results of the premiums.
Speaker 5: That's the bottom line.
Speaker 6: So if you're gonna pick on me on Kelly or Marco,
you better bring receipts, not just tell me about my bad.
Speaker 1: WHOA All right, well, if you guys want to bring
some more receipts. I thought the comment Seession was rather funny.
Last week, Marco's back on his meds, though this week
he picked a much smaller underdog to win the game.
Out right, uh, because picking Carolina was wild.
Speaker 2: But a great call by you, especially there in Lambeau.
Speaker 1: So this week you're looking at another one, and I
think this one's really interesting. I was on Arizona on
Monday Football in a couple of my contests, and then
I tease the crap out of a Marco because I thought,
and then I posted for my friends at Picket Sports
how lopsided the game was, and I was like, well, no, Kyler,
nobody wants to get involved. Does it matter if Kyler
Murray's the quarterback of this football team or not?
Speaker 3: No, Telly, And if the thing is and we talked
about it in a couple of games last week. When
you have a backup quarterback, if he's the polar opposite
of the starting quarterback, that's when you got to be concerned.
And we talked about Baltimore when Lamar Jackson was out
and they had Cooper Rushes the quarterback that's the polar
opposite of him. But whenever they went to Tyler Huntley,
that's the same style of quarterback. He's not as good
as Lamar Jackson, obviously, but you don't have to change
the game plan. Same thing goes with Arizona when you
go from Kyler Murray to Jakobe Purssett. And he did
what he needed to do in that game. Granted, before
get too excited about it, it was against the Dallas defense,
which every quarterback is going to look better than they
are when they faced Dallas. But I'm looking at this
from the Seattle side of this game. Can the stock
be any higher right now than it is on the
Seattle Seahawks. Everybody saw them on Sunday Night Football absolutely
destroy Washington thirty eight to fourteen. And remember, coming into
the season, Washington was a lot of people's darling because
of what they did last year with a rookie quarterback,
making that run in the playoffs, beating the Lions, and
giving Philadelphia fits for as long as they did before
they lost. This was a team that had high expectations
coming into the season and Seattle absolutely dismantled them. Now,
Jadeen Daniels got hurt, but it was late in the game,
and why he was still in the game. When he
was in the game, when he had been banged up
all year and the game was out of hand. As
another topic for another day, but I'm looking at this
and it's to me it's a sandwich spot. Seattle was
on Sunday Night football, not often that they are a
marquee team, and they had a very satisfying win. Now
you're gonna say, but Marco, this is a division game.
You don't look past the division opponent. No, you don't,
But you got two things here. They already beat Arizona
in Arizona, so it's kind of easy to look past
the team you already beat. But look who they play next.
They play the Rams, and the Rams are the team
that game next week will be for first place. So
you can't help but look ahead to that one. And
you know, looking at the fact that, as they said,
they already beat Arizona. One of the angles I like
in the NFL is I like taking an NFL road
dog in the second meeting. If they lost the first
meeting at home, you're gonna get an inflated line with them,
because Vegas knows the public's gonna look at the game
and say, well, if they could beat them in Arizona,
they sures that can beat them in Seattle. Uh, so
you get a little bit of value taking that road.
Speaker 4: Dog.
Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissett was clean last week, twenty one to thirty one,
two hundred and twenty one yards, two tds.
Speaker 4: But here's the key.
Speaker 3: Arizona is three and five this year, all five losses
combined thirteen points. I'm gonna go ahead and take Arizona
to keep another one close and find a way at
the end to win this one. Let's call it Arizona
twenty four twenty three. Take the points. Take a little sprinkle.
Speaker 2: All right if you are.
Speaker 1: Last week, Marco's barking dog kept me off of a
survivor play. And I'm a little concerned about the barking
dog this week.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: I had Carolina circled way back when, so I do
a spreadsheet throughout the whole season, I've had Carolina slated.
Speaker 2: For this spot.
Speaker 1: Now I'm having some second thoughts because they did beat
the Packers out right, and now they are playing the
lowly New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 2: But this still is a divisional game.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and let's not forget I just gave out a
steam report that told you Carolina got steamed multiple times.
I'm fading the wise, guys, I'm doing it again. I
did it last week with Minnesota. I've worked and moved
these games long enough. I see this exact move over
and over and over again. They do it automatically. You
have the rookie QUBA on the road, and the market
overreacts and downgrade it a little bit too much.
Speaker 5: And that's what's happening here.
Speaker 2: Dude.
Speaker 5: You're looking at Carolina team that has one quality win.
That's it.
Speaker 6: Forget the Green Bay I don't care about that because
they were two touchdown dogs and if they played that
game three hours later, they probably would have lost by
three touchdowns. That's the randomness of a sixty minute football game. Otherwise,
they got blown out by Buffe, they got blown out
by New England, and the wins they had were against
the Jets, Dallas, and Miami, all by one score. So
there's a ton of randomness involved, and rest ashore. Those
teams probably played some of the worst bawl that day.
Their one good win was against the Atlanta Falcons back
on September twenty first, when they were five point home
dogs and they won the game thirty to nothing. Okay,
that was the big win for them and for that
to happen, Pennix needed to throw two interceptions and lose
a fumball, so they had to go minus three and
turnover ratio, which you're not going to win many football
games doing that. For uh Carolina to get that w otherwise,
I don't see anything there that scares me. More importantly,
what happened after that good game? A team just like Carolina,
which has zero consistency, gets blown out by thirty points
the following week. That's exactly what should happen this week
after a big win against Green Bay. Not that they're
going to get blown out by thirty points, but that
they don't have the consistency of a team that should
be able to follow that up and continue playing good
that we don't expect. And here's why Carolina is one
of the worst teams in the NFL. Now, granted we
know the Saints are. In fact, when I look at
my power ratings, Saints are the second worst team in
the NFL. Only Tennessee would be an underdog to the Saints. Well,
when I look across from the Saints, it's Carolina. There's
only three teams that Carolina would be favored over, so
they're the third or fourth worst team in the NFL
and they're a five point six point whatever they are favorite.
Makes absolutely no sense if you look at what the
betting line has been for this team the entire year.
Speaker 5: They've been dogs, dogs, dogs, dogs. Now you're putting them
in the favorites role.
Speaker 6: And for the exits and those guys, Yeah, I know,
Rattler isn't the quarterback.
Speaker 5: I think that's a good thing because of.
Speaker 6: The overreaction, the price the kids coming in that from
Ore again, all right, here's what he has to follow.
You have a quarterback for the Saints in uh Rattler
whatever his name, was well below the average in the
NFL for passing success rate, so I had him. He
was the twenty fourth in passing success rate in the NFL.
The last two games he quarterback for the Saints, he
had a sixty eight point eight and a sixty six
point six QBR. He threw two touchdowns and foreign interceptions.
Where's the downgrade? If anything, I think the rest of
the team knows. We now have to show up because
we're taking this rookie on the road, our second round
draft pick, and we have to give some effort. And
fortunately for them it's a familiar opponent in Carolina that
they're facing. If anything, this is exactly where the Saints
need to be on the road, even with this rookie
quarterback faith and you're getting the pressure off of him
that he's not in New orkins.
Speaker 5: I like the Saints here.
Speaker 6: Carolina has no business being this big of a favor.
If they were three, I would have had to consider
still the Saints. But if I could take this up
to six at minus one point fifteen like we did,
I'm all over the Saints.
Speaker 5: Give me a Saints sprinkle the money line, live dog.
Speaker 1: Oh that is not what I wanted to hear, especially
because I don't have a lot of better options available.
Speaker 2: All right, may you hear.
Speaker 5: My best bet?
Speaker 2: Oh boy, you're gonna piss off the comments section NVR.
Speaker 4: With a winner.
Speaker 2: With a winner, how can you guys be mad with
a winner?
Speaker 5: Sneaky?
Speaker 4: Ooh?
Speaker 2: Whoof Oh I just looked, I just speak the head.
Speaker 1: Oh god, people aren't going to get really mad at
you for that one, especially after their performance on Sunday
Night Football. All Right, I'm gonna take a team that
just beat their divisional rival in a team versus a
team that's trajectory is a.
Speaker 2: Lot higher, but should it be.
Speaker 1: Hey, Baltimore won a nice twenty two point road win
at Miami still a team named Miami last week, but
Lamar Jackson you could tell he was not fully healthy,
and rightfully so, he's off a hamstring injury. I will
say this is going to have extra time to prepare
for that one, and if Lamar Jackson does what we've
seen him capable of, he may find success. But I
don't think Lamar Jackson is gonna be able to spread
the field just yet. And I think Minnesota has a
really solid defense. You know who doesn't have a solid defense, Baltimore.
I think JJ McCarthy should be relatively comfortable against this
Ravens defense.
Speaker 2: After all, his name is not to a turn the
ball over.
Speaker 1: Vre mentioned in the steam room that the reason why
this total is getting steamed, they're trying to get ahead
of it.
Speaker 2: Of course they are.
Speaker 1: Minnesota's last six games have all gone on over the total.
Baltimore's road games this year four and one to the over.
I think this is going to be an absolute and
utter shootout. I do, however, I think Minnesota is gonna
come away with a home win this is their first
time at home in almost six weeks. So look for
those purple people eaters, not the Baltimore ones, but the
Minnesota ones to be real loud and excited there in Minneapolis.
Speaker 2: Marco DiAngelo, let's.
Speaker 1: Hear about these sandwiches, because boy oh boy, has the
Deli been red hot four and one again last week
twenty seven and seventeen on the season.
Speaker 2: And boy oh boy.
Speaker 1: I just realized you are also going to try to
talk to me off taking the Panthers' support. Normally, I
don't let these guys agree with each other like I
make somebody pick and move things around.
Speaker 2: But apparently we really like those Saints this week.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and Marco was first. I looked back, I put
it there. I always checked.
Speaker 6: He was first first for mere Happy.
Speaker 1: All right, they're begging the rules, but this is now
double trouble for my survivor. Pick be right back while
I'm gonna go check the spreadsheet. Marko, let's hear what
the delis gotta say.
Speaker 3: All right, Kelly, and what you were referring to that
twenty seven and seventeen record is the bonus edition of
the Deli. We do a video every Thursday. It'll come
out where I have generally five more games that didn't
make this show, and I break them down for you
the way I do, So be sure to tune into that.
It'll be a standalone video on Thursday, and of course
it is included in the Mega Show as well. You
know what with these games, we took a lot of
heat last week with that Carolina play, and you know what,
so many times it's going to put you on an
ugly team. I understand that, but we're doing situations, okay,
and you got to trust the process. And sometimes it's
not actually the team we're taking, but we're going against
a team that's in a very bad situation. Last week,
it was green Bay that was in the bad situation.
They were coming off that satisfying win against the Steelers
where Jordan Love had his best game of the year
against the teacher, so to speak, in Aaron Rodgers. Then
they were playing lowly Carolina with them having a TV
game on deck against Philadelphia on Monday Night football. It
was all about going against green Bay last week. That's
why we had Carolina. Well, for every reason we had
going against green Bay last week, all of those kind
of apply this week to Carolina. They're coming off of
a very satisfying win. They went to lambeau Field and
knocked off Green Bay. Now they're coming home to play
the one in eight Saints. How in the world do
you get excited for the one in eight Saints. You don't,
even though it's a division game, because they're not a
team that you think is going to be a problem
in the division. Next week they play Atlanta. Even though
Atlanta is the third best team in the division. They're
better than New Orleans. It's something to look forward to.
And actually Atlanta's probably the second best team. It's just
a Carolina has a better record. Right now, this is
a sandwich game. This is a trap game. Maybe more
of a trap than a sandwich because Carolina they're fat
and sassy after last week's win and they're breaking one
of the rules that I like to fade teams with.
I don't like taking a dog that had a great
game and now is a favorite. I like to go
against those teams. And we talked about r mentioned them
going to the rookie quarterback. Well, he actually played last week.
He started last week and that was good because he
got that first game. Jitters off of you know, out
of the way. He had a game where he went
fifteen of twenty four for one hundred and seventy six yards,
one TV one interception. It wasn't a great game, but
it wasn't a bad game. But the difference is he
went against a very good Rams defense on the road
for his first start. The Rams are second in points
allowed defensively in fifth and yards per play allowed. If
he survived the Rams defense, he's definitely gonna survive the
Carolina defense, which is bottom third in yards per play allowed.
Facing a softer defense and having that start under his belt,
that tells me I think he's going to be more
productive this week. Throw in the situation where Carolina is
feeling fat and sassy, I think this is one of
those games where it goes right down to the wire.
We're talking about five and a half, and five and
a half is one of those numbers in the NFL
that when I see it, it's less than the six,
it's more than the three. Most people read those numbers
and when they're looking at it, they're saying, oh, okay, well,
they're over a field goal, supposed to win this game,
and I'm getting them under a touchdown. So all you
gotta do is win by a touchdown.
Speaker 4: Be careful.
Speaker 3: I love those five and a half point underdogs. Let's
go ahead and take the Saints in an ugly one.
I'm gonna call it Saints seventeen sixteen for the Sandwich
game of the Week.
Speaker 1: Marco, you're so correct, those five and a half point underdogs.
We saw it with the Jets. That took out a
bunch of angles. They took out my last circa entry.
All right, congrats, guys. You've successfully talked me off taking
the Panthers and Survivor, and now I'm gonna have to
take I have no idea who. All right, anyway, that
being said, we're gonna get right into those best bets.
Speaker 2: E're up first. Go ahead and piss off the audience.
Speaker 1: But before you do, please let everybody know what you've
got going on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 6: All right, I'm not gonna fire a five percent this
week on the Sunday games. Maybe on the Monday, but
not on the Sundays because I really like this board
and I don't want to just narrow down that one
strong play I've already released. Actually two four percent, there's
gonna be a handful of those in the card for sure. Also,
college football card is up already. I'm not gonna throw
five there either. These fours have been crushing it. We're
up over one hundred and thirty units already in college football,
number one in profit, and already started college basketball number one.
Working with the same groups in college basketball that I
did college football, We're gonna do the exact same thing.
Speaker 5: It's a great time to jump on board. The bulls
will be coming up before you know it.
Speaker 6: NBA's here, NHL's here, Mma, there's so many sports easy
to do damage. And again, make sure you join me
for this weekend because I've got a lot going on
in football now. We're gonna come right back with a
team that it looks like the sharp money is opposite
like last week, like the steam because of the adjustment.
Speaker 5: But nothing could be further from the truth.
Speaker 6: The adjustment is made based on the quarterback situation in
Washington with Jaden Daniels. Here's why. When you look at
the look ahead lined for Detroit and Washington, Okay, the
look ahead was four and a half. That was already
too high because it got steamed to three and a half.
So already they were lining up on the Washington side.
Then what happens. Daniels breaks an arm. Confirmed out, we
know who's the backup. They adjust the line six points
to nine and a half.
Speaker 5: You're looking at nine right now because guys just like
myself bought the half a point.
Speaker 6: Up to ten, because you should be laying about one
twenty two, one twenty four for that half a point
instead of one to twenty. And that's why I send
it out to subscribers immediately. You're looking at nine's right now,
and don't be surprised if you get down to that
eight and a half.
Speaker 5: The only reason it hasn't.
Speaker 6: Gone to eight and a half everywhere is teaser protection
against Detroit, they would fall under the wong for sure,
and they don't want to get middled with Detroit minus
two and a half Washington plus nine, nine and a
half and ten. That's why it's sitting where it's sitting
right now, and you can still get more points than
you should. Here's the bottom line over the last nine games,
Jade and Daniels QBR sixty three point one. All right,
that's what we need to go in there and.
Speaker 4: Replace.
Speaker 6: Now, I get it. His potential is a lot higher.
His ceiling is a lot higher. But something has gone
to miss down the stretch. He hasn't been healthy because
over the first five games, my man had zero interceptions,
playing great ball, and that's what he does, protects the
football very well.
Speaker 5: Over the last four games, two interceptions. That's not like him.
Speaker 6: So obviously he just he wasn't on point and that
showed in his QBR. He had a seventy two point
seven in his last game. I keep talking about Jaden
Daniels and the qu because that's what this line is
based on the replacement, and what I'm trying to explain
is this is an over adjustment that Jaden Daniels may
be worth six points if the drop off wasn't to Mariota.
Speaker 5: That's the key. And Mariota is being judged harshly for that.
Speaker 6: One performance against Kansas City where they got blown out
like twenty eight to seven, but he actually went twenty
one to thirty passing through a touchdown. It was two
interceptions that cost them, and that is what he's being
punished for here. But if you look over career, the
drop off isn't worth a touchdown.
Speaker 5: It just isn't.
Speaker 6: Very few quarterbacks are worth a touchdown to their backup,
and especially someone with the experience the NFL experience that
this backup has. It's not a rookie QB behind them,
so he's capable of playing a good game. And I
think that's what you're gonna get. Like you said, the
coming off keil an ugly, ugly game on prime time.
So we have recency bias working for us. We have Detroit,
arguably the best team in the NFL or top two three,
coming off a loss. Most expect them to do what
they did when they lost to Kansas City. They bounced back,
They blew away Tampa Bay. That's not going to happen here.
They're traveling on the road, and I think you're gonna
get a motivated Washington team to at least give you
a lot of effort. Haven't been blown out in back
to back games. That was Seattle in Kansas City. If anything,
that's going to prepare you for Detroit. I think we
get a much better game out of Washington. I think
they keep this a much closer than nine points and
may want to sprinkle as well.
Speaker 4: It is the NFL.
Speaker 6: Stranger things have happened, like the Minnesota Vikings, getting the
w So take the points best bet and we'll just keep.
Speaker 5: Catching tickets in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I know this isn't relevant, but because we didn't talk
about the Colts game, But one of the funnier fights
that we've seen over the last couple of weeks from
the comment section was the Indianapolis mascot trolling Marco in
the TikTok the Wager Talk TikTok channel. I almost died.
It was absolutely and utterly hilarious. And since Dan alexander'sn't
paying attention, I'm gonna put it on the screen. I
gotta see that he was laughing in the comment section
at Marco's pick against Indianapolis. The funny part was is
Marco got to get his revenge from a fandom perspective
last week.
Speaker 2: That was now, I screwed it all up.
Speaker 1: See Dan, see what happens when when you're doing other
stuff and I get to run the controls?
Speaker 2: Uh, Marco D'ANGELI again, I know.
Speaker 1: It wasn't relative, but I saw that graphic and I
just lost it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that when he told me was a couple of
weeks ago when I had the Chargers against the Colts.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you come in with the bah ha.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, Steelers beat the Colts and is the fandom.
Speaker 4: I'll take it. They really didn't deserve it. Don't get
too excited about it.
Speaker 3: The six turnovers by the Colts last week helped the
Steelers along. But yeah, it was funny. And you know,
Dan and John making the graphic of us fighting.
Speaker 1: A I is good for something. How about that make
it a fun graphic. If you guys have something to
say to Marco or VR or myself, feel free to
do so.
Speaker 2: We love love, love, love, love, all of the love
or hate.
Speaker 1: In the comment section, guys need you to do meet
one more favor though. Everybody, get ready because we're gonna
wish Marco di'angelo a very happy birthday in the comment section.
Speaker 2: You guys can be nice to him one time a year,
So do that for me.
Speaker 1: In and Marco, let me know before you give us
your best bet for NFL Week ten, what your birthday
special is over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 4: Well, we've been doing this for a long time. I'm Kelly.
Speaker 3: Every time it is my birthday week, we offer the
week for my age, So definitely, I you know, that's
one plus of getting older. I get an extra dollar
out of everybody every year, but it's still of value
to you guys. You know the forty nine dollars Weekend
Warrior package that has been one of the most popular
packages that we have. You can buy your favorite kapper
for the weekend for forty nine dollars. You'll get all
of their college football, all of their NFL and if
they've got a Monday Night play, it's included free.
Speaker 4: No brainer on that.
Speaker 3: Well, how about getting every play for seven days for
fifteen dollars more. That's what happens this week. If you
buy my Birthday bash for me, you can get all
of my plays seven days from the day sign up
for sixty four dollars. Guys, we are on a roll
right now, rolling into my birthday on an eleven and
two run since last Thursday, which has resulted in a
profit for our clients of twenty over twenty five hundred dollars.
And we nailed another five percent play last week. We
had Texas Tech over Kiansas State that forty three to
twenty win. That brings the record to thirty five and
sixteen on those five percent plays. Why am I talking
about the five percents because they sell for thirty five
dollars by themselves, and you're gonna get one this week
with the seven day package. So that's half of the
subscription right there. Sign up, Head on over to wager
talk dot com and join me for the birthday week
as we continue to celebrate with winners.
Speaker 4: And speaking of winners, we're.
Speaker 3: Gonna look at the same game the VR did, only
a different way, and we both can win this one.
And I hope Aces rate with his Washington play because
that means Washington's gonna be scoring points. And as I
talked about in previous UH play, you got Marcus Mariota.
He is the same type of quarterback as Daniels, so
whenever they go to him, it's not changing the offensive
game plan. All it does is make Marcus Mariota get
all the snaps this week for an offense. He's already
gonna know how to run. So I looked for Washington
to score points, but I'm not going with Washington. What
I'm going with is a team total on the Detroit Lions.
Why because Detroit's gonna come in here with the pedal
to the medal. They lost the game last week that
probably they shouldn't they got caught looking ahead.
Speaker 4: In my opinion, even though.
Speaker 3: Minnesota was a division game, Minnesota's not playing good. Minnesota
had their starting quarterback, you know, knocked out before then
it was Carson Wentz. Then he got knocked out, and
then we didn't know last week midweek for sure who
was going to start for Minnesota. JJ McCarthy was later
announced in the week that he was going to play,
but you didn't know how he was gonna play coming
off the injury. Well, he played well in Minnesota got
their revenge. Remember that game at the end of the
season last year that was for the division title. Well,
let's go ahead and look at Detroit and revenge this week.
It was Washington that knocked them out of the playoffs
last year. And you've got an angry Detroit team coming
off a rare loss at home. What's Dan Campbell's you know, trademark.
He likes to be a bully. Whenever he gets a
team that he can get a lead on. He never
takes his foot off the gas. He keeps pushing down field.
And I think they're going to score points in this game.
Why because the Washington defense is not good. Detroit last
three games, I realize they've been held to seventeen, twenty four,
and twenty four. That's way under their team total for
this game of twenty nine and a half. But I
also got to point out out those three teams that
held him to those totals was Kansas City, Tampa Bay,
and Minnesota.
Speaker 4: Check the stats.
Speaker 3: Those are all good defensive teams overall. They're not facing
one of those good defensive teams here. Washington has given
up forty four, twenty eight, and thirty eight in the
last three games. I look for this one to be
both teams going up and down the field. But I'm
gonna go ahead and take Detroit team total rather than
the whole over for the game, which I also like
as well. But I like Detroit team total over twenty
nine and a half. I think they get into the
thirties easily in this one as they get their little
revenge and as Dan Campbell likes to do, he likes
to be the bully and send a message. Remember that's
Chicago Bears game early in the year when he just
kept passing in the fourth quarter against his former assistant coach. Yeah,
and they were coming off a loss in that one too.
Let's go over Team Tote Detroit for our best.
Speaker 1: Bet, all right, and for my best bet, we're going
with another short home favorite.
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield. Please stay healthy for this one.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna knock on some wood behind me because that
was not fun last week CJ Stroud getting knocked out
there in the second quarter and costing US a five
to zero and the prestigious Westgates Super Contest. This week,
we're gonna take another short home favorite, and we're going
against one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Speaker 2: That's right, the New England Patriots. Drake may MVP anyone right,
three hundred and fourteen total yards last week.
Speaker 1: That was two hundred and fifty nine passing by Drake,
two touchdowns and boy oh boy, to that defense do
its job.
Speaker 2: But Atlanta got the cover for us.
Speaker 1: Patriots still sacked six times. What is this Bucks defense
gonna do there? And this is a Bucks defense that
I think deserves a little bit more credit. They are
gonna be hell healthier. Speaking of health, oh shocker, look
who might be back Chris Godwin for Baker Mayfield, who
actually should.
Speaker 2: Be the MVP.
Speaker 1: This is a Tampa Bay team that I really like
here in this spot coming off of by sure, New
England's covered five straight road games. But they're not playing
the Tennessee Titans this week, boys and girls, They're playing
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I will say this, did I
tease the Patriots? I might have, but I like the
Bucks here laying two and a half at home to
get a nice win of let's call it a touchdown.
Speaker 2: Perfect scenario for both worlds.
Speaker 1: Speaking of perfect scenarios, the last two weeks of beat
on It have been damn near perfect scenarios for us
here in college football and NFL. And if you guys
got something to say about it, we want to hear
from you. So shout out to Marco, shout out to VR.
Since you guys never give them enough thanks in the
comments section, I'll do it for you. And if you
guys are looking for that college football edition to bet
on It, it's right here. Of course, we've got the
Mega Show. Don't forget to also check out Marcos and
Deli and
Speaker 2: The Steam Room on Sundays at twelve pm Eastern