1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,759 Speaker 1: The comments section owes us an apology. Headed into NFL 2 00:00:04,919 --> 00:00:08,400 Week ten, those barking Dogs swept and those best bets 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:08,800 should have. 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:10,880 Speaker 2: But that guy named c. J. 5 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,679 Speaker 1: Stroud got knocked out in the second quarter and somehow 6 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,359 the Denver Broncos won that football game. 7 00:00:17,039 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 2: We're back this week with more barking dogs. 8 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,399 Speaker 1: The steam room is the deli back open because it 9 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,320 has been red hot as well, And of course more 10 00:00:25,359 --> 00:00:28,879 of those best bets up next on bet on It NFL. 11 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,960 All right, we're gonna get right into it with some 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:48,320 of the primetime games, and. 13 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,119 Speaker 2: This one is rather intriguing. 14 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:52,359 Speaker 1: So I have my Odd's Logic screen open and I 15 00:00:52,439 --> 00:00:55,600 keep waiting to see that elusive eight and a half 16 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,880 at the book that I love to bet the teasers 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,399 on Marco Thursday Night Football, the Lost Vegas Raiders are 18 00:01:01,479 --> 00:01:05,840 headed to Denver. Total forty one and a half. Talk 19 00:01:05,879 --> 00:01:08,560 to me about this Raiders team. You were high on 20 00:01:08,599 --> 00:01:11,040 them last week. They did get the cover for you, 21 00:01:11,079 --> 00:01:14,879 but Pete Carroll decided he wasn't gonna play for that tie. 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,159 Speaker 3: No, when you got the record that the Raiders have, 23 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,280 you can't possibly play for the tie. You gotta go 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,959 for it. It was the right decision, and I would 25 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,120 love to have them win out right, because you know 26 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,040 the comments section Kelly, as she said, we got a 27 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,799 lot of them last week, and this was one of 28 00:01:31,799 --> 00:01:35,239 the games that I got a lot of comments because 29 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,200 I said I was going to take the Raiders and 30 00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:40,480 if you remember, I said Gino Smith was gonna have 31 00:01:40,519 --> 00:01:44,079 his best game of the season. He threw four touchdown 32 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:45,079 passes in that game. 33 00:01:45,159 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 4: Last week. 34 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 3: They had two weeks to prepare for that game. They 35 00:01:48,439 --> 00:01:51,159 were coming off the bye week and coming off the 36 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,359 most embarrassing loss that you could have. They lost thirty 37 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,000 one to nothing to Kansas City. Going into that bye game, 38 00:01:58,439 --> 00:02:02,640 that game was could have been fifty to nothing. Kansas 39 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:07,959 City stopped attacking in the second half. To be totally 40 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,840 honest with you, Andy Reid did not want to embarrass 41 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,639 Pete Carroll in that game. He acts literally was taking 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,879 a knee with four minutes to play in the game, 43 00:02:16,599 --> 00:02:20,159 not to score. But they did what they had to do. 44 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 4: Last week. 45 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 3: They had a good showing and why Jacksonville to be 46 00:02:24,439 --> 00:02:27,400 a favorite on the road even though they were coming 47 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,520 off of bye week two, I just couldn't buy it. 48 00:02:29,879 --> 00:02:33,120 But now you come back on a short week. Okay, 49 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,039 you gave your big effort and you came up short 50 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,400 once again. This is a team that the season is 51 00:02:39,599 --> 00:02:44,319 lost for the Raiders, and if they already didn't see 52 00:02:44,319 --> 00:02:48,080 that reality, they saw it yesterday when they traded away. 53 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:53,319 It's a trade deadline. Their second best offensive player in 54 00:02:53,759 --> 00:02:57,199 Jacoby Myers. Okay, where are they going to get the 55 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:02,680 point production on this offense? Ashton Genty, I think is 56 00:03:02,719 --> 00:03:05,319 a bust as a six round pick. They went too 57 00:03:05,439 --> 00:03:09,759 high for him. Also, the best player they got is 58 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,919 Brock Bauers, and now he's gonna be double teamed every 59 00:03:13,039 --> 00:03:16,599 pass attempt because they got no other threat. I can't 60 00:03:16,719 --> 00:03:18,759 look at the Raiders, but I'm not gonna lay the 61 00:03:18,759 --> 00:03:22,719 points with Denver either, because Denver's in a spot here. 62 00:03:22,759 --> 00:03:26,039 They're playing their third game in eleven days. They're playing 63 00:03:26,439 --> 00:03:29,000 laying a big number and bow Knicks has not been 64 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,719 lighting it up. Definitely a sophomore jinx for bow Knicks. 65 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,719 Denver did hold Houston to five field goals last week, 66 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,919 but it was some really bad play calling and the 67 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,759 fact that CJ. Stroud got knocked out of the game 68 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,680 in the second quarter. Given that it is the short 69 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,919 week and as they said, the schedule that Denver's just 70 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,960 come off of, with all of the travel, I'm gonna 71 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,360 look to the total. This is a classic game. We 72 00:03:55,479 --> 00:03:57,680 said the same thing with Denver a couple of weeks 73 00:03:57,719 --> 00:04:00,759 ago when they played in that London game. They want 74 00:04:00,759 --> 00:04:03,759 to get in and get out, and how you do 75 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,759 that is you run the football, shorten the game and 76 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,680 not expose bo Knicks to making mistakes. They shouldn't have 77 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,079 to throw the football much in this game against the 78 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,800 Raiders to get enough to win. I'm gonna take the 79 00:04:18,879 --> 00:04:21,759 under in this game. I just don't see either team 80 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:26,240 getting enough points. Denver has scored twenty eight or fewer 81 00:04:26,319 --> 00:04:29,920 points in seven of their nine games this year, and 82 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,680 in five of those seven it was twenty points or less. 83 00:04:33,079 --> 00:04:35,160 And I sure as heck don't see the Raiders scoring 84 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,040 points on this Denver defense. So for me, Thursday Night 85 00:04:39,079 --> 00:04:42,120 football could be a snooze fest. But that's okay if 86 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,959 you got the under. We cashed an under last week 87 00:04:45,079 --> 00:04:48,240 on Thursday Night football. Let's get another one this week. 88 00:04:48,439 --> 00:04:50,560 Take under in the Denver Raider game. 89 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:51,319 Speaker 5: Yeah. 90 00:04:51,319 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: I feel like those Thursday night football games have been 91 00:04:53,759 --> 00:04:58,040 more snooze fest at least than offensive powerhouses. 92 00:04:59,000 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 4: Let's go. 93 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 1: We were at a Sunday night football VR. This is 94 00:05:02,199 --> 00:05:05,000 a game that I couldn't quite figure out other than 95 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,720 from a teaser standpoint. Pittsburgh catching two and a half 96 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,839 at the Los Angeles Chargers total forty four and a half. 97 00:05:12,639 --> 00:05:14,519 Speaker 6: Yeah, and if it goes to two and a half 98 00:05:14,519 --> 00:05:16,680 across the board, you definitely want to look to tease 99 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,199 the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a nice teaser opportunity, especially 100 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,720 since we've seen a little under money come in off 101 00:05:22,759 --> 00:05:24,759 that forty six and a half look ahead. 102 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 5: Also, the look ahead. 103 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 6: Was four and a half, went to three and a half. 104 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,399 That got hit as well picked off some of the threes. 105 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,000 That's why a lot of two and a half's are 106 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,199 on the board. So Steelers got some steam. And I'm 107 00:05:37,199 --> 00:05:41,319 gonna tell you why I using the Steelers for the 108 00:05:41,319 --> 00:05:44,439 TV bet. I haven't released it to subscribers. I haven't 109 00:05:44,439 --> 00:05:47,240 gotten to the window with it. I didn't get the four, 110 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:49,839 so I got to think whether I'm gonna get there 111 00:05:49,879 --> 00:05:52,639 with the three. Here's the bottom line. These two teams 112 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,879 are extremely comparable. That's why it's a dogg or pass situation. 113 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:01,000 Other than the home field advantage, for the Chargers, which 114 00:06:01,079 --> 00:06:04,040 don't really have one and even this year don't really 115 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,360 have one. They've won three or four games on the road, 116 00:06:06,399 --> 00:06:08,720 they're three and two at home. In fact, their win 117 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,439 percentage is better on the road. 118 00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 5: So as far as. 119 00:06:12,759 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 6: Home field advantage is, what are you gonna give them 120 00:06:14,519 --> 00:06:16,600 one to one and a half points? So anything a 121 00:06:16,639 --> 00:06:19,160 field goal or better look to be the value side 122 00:06:19,199 --> 00:06:22,360 with the Steelers. And again here's why strength of schedule. 123 00:06:22,439 --> 00:06:25,079 Steelers has had this tougher strength of schedule. In fact, 124 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,879 the Chargers had the twenty ninth toughest schedule to date. 125 00:06:29,079 --> 00:06:31,839 One of the reasons I bet over season wins for 126 00:06:31,879 --> 00:06:35,160 the Chargers and a future on them. And they've got 127 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:40,399 the seventeenth most efficient offense and the eleventh most efficient defense. 128 00:06:40,439 --> 00:06:44,959 Now that's what the twenty ninth toughest schedule the Pittsburgh Steelers. 129 00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:47,560 The weak side of the football for them has been defense. 130 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:52,040 They're barely a top twenty defensive team. With that said, 131 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,519 they're now going up against an offense where that's not 132 00:06:55,639 --> 00:06:58,600 the strength of the Chargers, and they've had a weak 133 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,759 strength of schedule. So if anything, this is a week 134 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,720 where you're gonna see the Steelers defense look better than 135 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,519 they have in weeks pens. And then when I get 136 00:07:07,519 --> 00:07:09,759 to the offensive side of the ball, I give the 137 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,079 nod to the Steelers. Efficient Wise, there are a couple 138 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:17,079 slots ahead of the Chargers. Back to my conclusion that 139 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,160 this is as close to a coin flip type of 140 00:07:19,199 --> 00:07:21,439 game as you're going to get. You look at these 141 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,399 two teams record wise, they're comparable, point differential, they're comparable. 142 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,680 They're efficiency on both sides of the ball. They're comparable 143 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,519 with a couple edges on the Pittsburgh side, and strength 144 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,639 of schedule edge to the Steelers. Once again, if you 145 00:07:34,639 --> 00:07:36,800 could get points in what looks like a coin flip, 146 00:07:36,959 --> 00:07:39,000 it's like getting plus money on a coin flip. 147 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 5: You gotta take it. So right now I'm looking at 148 00:07:41,519 --> 00:07:44,480 dogg or pass. But I've been getting really good information on. 149 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 6: These primetime games, at them like nine to two on 150 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,720 the last eleven and we swept Monday night football. 151 00:07:50,879 --> 00:07:54,079 Speaker 5: So got to wait for confirmation. That's why I haven't 152 00:07:54,079 --> 00:07:54,800 gotten to the window. 153 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 6: And I want to make sure I make that disclaimer 154 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,079 because if you find me on Pittsburgh come Sunday night, 155 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,279 I don't want to on the Chargers or something like that. 156 00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:02,399 Speaker 5: Don't when anyone pissed. 157 00:08:02,639 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 6: But if the game was going off the night and 158 00:08:04,639 --> 00:08:06,360 I had to bet it, I'd be on the Steelers. 159 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: All right. 160 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,519 Speaker 1: Well, that's why they can tune in to either Last 161 00:08:09,839 --> 00:08:12,560 on Sundays with you in Ariel, or to the steam 162 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:19,160 Room NFL edition noon easterns Eastern before kickoff on Sundays 163 00:08:19,279 --> 00:08:23,319 and hang out. Remember those insiders do get special privileges 164 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,600 here and there to those steam rooms in addition to 165 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,279 your premium clients. All right, Monday Night football. This is 166 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:31,319 a this is kind of a weird line. I'm not 167 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,440 gonna lie to you. Looking at Philadelphia catching two and 168 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,159 a half, we might see some threes popping up here 169 00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:40,600 on the odds lot screen come kickoff, And I understand 170 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,200 why people like Green Bay in this spot. I really 171 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,480 do them coming off that wonky loss. Shout out Marco 172 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,840 for calling that one and keeping me off Green Bay 173 00:08:50,919 --> 00:08:56,720 there in at least the survivor pools, that would have 174 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,120 been ug lee. That being said, Bay has just been 175 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,840 terrible in those spots as big favorites this season. They're 176 00:09:05,919 --> 00:09:07,840 zero to five against the spread when laying more than 177 00:09:07,879 --> 00:09:11,840 six points. Of course, this is a tighter range than 178 00:09:11,919 --> 00:09:15,639 that one is. And green Bay started off the season 179 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:21,039 red hot, right beating Detroit right there out of the 180 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:25,799 gate and basically kind of running the table. Everybody thought, hey, 181 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,080 this is a Packers team that has a shot to 182 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:28,879 win the super Bowl. 183 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 2: But since then there are one in six against the spread. 184 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,799 Speaker 1: Now they're without one of their best weapons in Tucker Craft, 185 00:09:34,799 --> 00:09:37,759 who tore his acl Speaking of weapons, it looks like 186 00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:42,039 aj Brown will be coming back for the Eagles. Keep 187 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,960 an eye on Saquon Barkley. He is listed as questionable 188 00:09:45,519 --> 00:09:49,519 as we are filming the show here on Wednesday afternoon. 189 00:09:50,279 --> 00:09:53,840 I think this Philadelphia team knows that they're underdogs. Why 190 00:09:53,879 --> 00:09:55,919 because not only are they five and zero against the 191 00:09:55,919 --> 00:09:58,519 spread in their last five tries as underdogs. 192 00:09:58,080 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 2: They're five and oh straight up. 193 00:10:00,159 --> 00:10:05,159 Speaker 1: They want to win against teams that maybe are superior, 194 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,320 at least as a point spread ranking. But I don't 195 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,399 think this Green Bay team is superior. I think this 196 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:12,240 two teams. 197 00:10:12,039 --> 00:10:12,799 Speaker 2: Are neck and neck. 198 00:10:13,039 --> 00:10:15,639 Speaker 1: How much home field does an advantage in Lamba Well, 199 00:10:15,639 --> 00:10:19,320 of course it's Lambeau. It's freezing cold, the place is rocking, 200 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,919 but not more than anywhere else. 201 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: So as far as the Eagles catching two and a half. 202 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: I have to use them in a teaser here with 203 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,759 this lower total of forty four and a half, it 204 00:10:29,799 --> 00:10:32,320 looks like it, Marco said before we hit record. 205 00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:34,879 Speaker 2: This looks like the easiest teaser all week. Fine, did 206 00:10:34,919 --> 00:10:38,440 I get to take the easiest teaser of the week. 207 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: VR give everybody a little excerpt of what they may 208 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:43,720 see on the steam Room. 209 00:10:43,759 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 2: I know you go into it a lot more. 210 00:10:45,279 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: In depth on Sundays, but as it stands on Wednesday afternoon, 211 00:10:49,399 --> 00:10:50,919 you guys have already fired on a few things. 212 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:51,799 Speaker 5: Let's hear where they are. 213 00:10:52,159 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 6: Yeah, even released them. Bring THEMS out to subscribers, and 214 00:10:55,759 --> 00:10:57,200 that's what we do in the steam room. We go 215 00:10:57,279 --> 00:11:00,519 through each in every NFL game, top the bottom, I 216 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:04,000 share signs, total, any player prompts. I have been given 217 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:05,679 out a lot of player prop in there as well, 218 00:11:05,759 --> 00:11:08,600 because I can't use them for subscribers because as they 219 00:11:08,639 --> 00:11:11,159 come in, their time sensitive lines move a little bit 220 00:11:11,159 --> 00:11:14,799 too quickly on some of those there to answer all 221 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,399 your questions, any games that you have, survivor contest questions, 222 00:11:18,399 --> 00:11:20,799 I get, teaser questions I get. We also put those 223 00:11:20,799 --> 00:11:25,200 plus CB teasers together towards the end of our hour 224 00:11:25,759 --> 00:11:29,120 and yeah, I'm there working for you and more importantly 225 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:33,000 accountable to my subscribers where we go over our results 226 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,799 and talk about risk management. So far, it's been celebratory results, 227 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,720 especially in football. Now here's some of the moves that 228 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:46,080 I've already seen in accounts that I work with NFL. 229 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,679 Start off with two fifty three Cleveland. We'll jump right 230 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,159 into Sunday plus two plus one minus one and a half. 231 00:11:52,159 --> 00:11:54,279 That's why the flavors flip. But I'll tell you this, 232 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:56,360 when it got the highest two and a half, they 233 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,279 didn't even wait for three. 234 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,879 Speaker 5: That's when you saw money in on the Jets. Again. 235 00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 6: I keep stressing, it shows you just how tight these 236 00:12:04,399 --> 00:12:07,279 NFL lines. And I do not like reading in the comments, 237 00:12:07,279 --> 00:12:10,000 Oh what's this STEM report for? You're telling us lines 238 00:12:10,039 --> 00:12:14,080 that moves every single game, line moves. I don't think 239 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:15,679 there's a single game where you're not going to get 240 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,720 a line move. I'm here to clarify what the line 241 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,720 move represents. Is it public money? Is is sharp money? 242 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,440 Is it the books adjusting based on information? That's what 243 00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:29,080 you got to be digging into. And more importantly, you 244 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,440 take this information than you follow your odds logic screen 245 00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:35,720 and you see is what a saying confirmed? Or am 246 00:12:35,759 --> 00:12:38,200 I now seeing a change and resistance in the market. 247 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:41,480 That's when you have to put in your work. That's 248 00:12:41,519 --> 00:12:44,840 why this information is priceless and valuable. If you just 249 00:12:44,879 --> 00:12:46,720 look at it like, oh that line move that can't 250 00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:51,120 use it again, don't be square, don't do that move 251 00:12:51,159 --> 00:12:55,000 On the two fifty six Carolina plus minus four minus 252 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,720 four and a half in Carolina and the under forty 253 00:12:58,759 --> 00:13:00,360 two and a half, that was the look ahead, they 254 00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:03,240 bet the forty two as well, that stuck out two 255 00:13:03,279 --> 00:13:06,639 fifty nine Jacksonville. They wiped out the key number of 256 00:13:06,639 --> 00:13:08,960 plus three and then hit the two and a half 257 00:13:09,039 --> 00:13:12,039 as well, sprinkled the money line and steamed that game 258 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,120 under the look ahead of forty one and a half, 259 00:13:14,399 --> 00:13:16,960 then went under even thirty nine and a half when 260 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,720 they adjusted so under steam on the Jacksonville games, legit 261 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,879 Baltimore and Minnesota. See this is where you want to 262 00:13:23,919 --> 00:13:26,360 pay attention. Are they going to come back? Is this 263 00:13:26,519 --> 00:13:28,679 just getting out ahead of the public based on some 264 00:13:28,799 --> 00:13:30,840 recency bias of teams that put up a lot of 265 00:13:30,879 --> 00:13:33,200 points because they went and bet the over forty six 266 00:13:33,279 --> 00:13:35,919 and a half forty seven and forty eight in the 267 00:13:35,919 --> 00:13:41,159 Baltimore Minnesota game two seventy two Rams minus three and 268 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,600 three and a half off that key number because minus 269 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:44,639 three was the look ahead. 270 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 5: So that's what you got to pay attention to. 271 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 6: Is it the look ahead which got hit because those 272 00:13:49,639 --> 00:13:51,720 limits are small and then the books get a chance 273 00:13:51,759 --> 00:13:54,840 to adjust or after the adjustment, did it get hit again. 274 00:13:55,039 --> 00:13:58,159 That's what happened with the Rams two seventy three Pittsburgh, 275 00:13:58,399 --> 00:14:02,080 which I touched on plus four and a half, plus 276 00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:04,399 three and a half and the under forty six and 277 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,919 a half forty five and a half. And when it 278 00:14:06,919 --> 00:14:08,399 got the forty four and a half, that's when you 279 00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:12,600 started seeing over money in sharp accounts. So again difference 280 00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:15,480 of opinion on the total once it moves significantly. And 281 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,679 finally they took the three with Philly on Monday night, 282 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,679 not a surprise key number. Looks like public money is 283 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,919 starting to side a little bit more with Philly. Again, 284 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,360 it's way too early, but you're not getting you know, 285 00:14:28,399 --> 00:14:30,879 one sided Green Bay money, So I wasn't surprised they 286 00:14:30,919 --> 00:14:32,639 came off that key three already. 287 00:14:33,279 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 5: We will touch up. 288 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 6: On this again on last call Sunday and more importantly 289 00:14:37,759 --> 00:14:39,320 in the steam room with detail. 290 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,559 Speaker 5: That's the luck. Whether you follow or fade. I just 291 00:14:41,559 --> 00:14:43,120 hope you make some money off the information. 292 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:44,879 Speaker 2: That is the plan. 293 00:14:45,519 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: We love making money and starts with those barking underdogs, 294 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:53,759 which we swept on last week. Crazy because Marco gave 295 00:14:53,799 --> 00:14:56,360 out the Panthers and VR gave out the Vikings. 296 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 5: Tell me how I don't want. I won't know anything 297 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:01,519 about football. 298 00:15:01,559 --> 00:15:03,759 Speaker 6: Go ahead, got gay just because I don't sit there 299 00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:06,759 like a fanboy and jerk off the wide receivers. That's 300 00:15:06,759 --> 00:15:10,000 for my same game parlay. Doesn't mean I don't pay attention. 301 00:15:10,279 --> 00:15:12,799 Forgive me, forgive me, but you just got to tell 302 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:13,399 it how it is. 303 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,399 Speaker 5: I think what matters. 304 00:15:15,679 --> 00:15:19,879 Speaker 6: What matters about cashing tickets, not not cheering in some 305 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:20,879 Jersey number. 306 00:15:21,159 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 5: That's what I care about. Cashing tickets numbers. 307 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 6: Nobody cares about your man, even for results of the premiums. 308 00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:29,279 Speaker 5: That's the bottom line. 309 00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:31,879 Speaker 6: So if you're gonna pick on me on Kelly or Marco, 310 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,080 you better bring receipts, not just tell me about my bad. 311 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: WHOA All right, well, if you guys want to bring 312 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,879 some more receipts. I thought the comment Seession was rather funny. 313 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,720 Last week, Marco's back on his meds, though this week 314 00:15:43,759 --> 00:15:46,080 he picked a much smaller underdog to win the game. 315 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:51,919 Out right, uh, because picking Carolina was wild. 316 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,279 Speaker 2: But a great call by you, especially there in Lambeau. 317 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: So this week you're looking at another one, and I 318 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,639 think this one's really interesting. I was on Arizona on 319 00:15:59,679 --> 00:16:02,919 Monday Football in a couple of my contests, and then 320 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,120 I tease the crap out of a Marco because I thought, 321 00:16:05,639 --> 00:16:07,720 and then I posted for my friends at Picket Sports 322 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,639 how lopsided the game was, and I was like, well, no, Kyler, 323 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,960 nobody wants to get involved. Does it matter if Kyler 324 00:16:15,039 --> 00:16:16,960 Murray's the quarterback of this football team or not? 325 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,519 Speaker 3: No, Telly, And if the thing is and we talked 326 00:16:20,519 --> 00:16:22,279 about it in a couple of games last week. When 327 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,120 you have a backup quarterback, if he's the polar opposite 328 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,559 of the starting quarterback, that's when you got to be concerned. 329 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,720 And we talked about Baltimore when Lamar Jackson was out 330 00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:37,720 and they had Cooper Rushes the quarterback that's the polar 331 00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:40,720 opposite of him. But whenever they went to Tyler Huntley, 332 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,360 that's the same style of quarterback. He's not as good 333 00:16:45,399 --> 00:16:48,639 as Lamar Jackson, obviously, but you don't have to change 334 00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:52,360 the game plan. Same thing goes with Arizona when you 335 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,360 go from Kyler Murray to Jakobe Purssett. And he did 336 00:16:57,039 --> 00:16:59,919 what he needed to do in that game. Granted, before 337 00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:03,559 get too excited about it, it was against the Dallas defense, 338 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,960 which every quarterback is going to look better than they 339 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,279 are when they faced Dallas. But I'm looking at this 340 00:17:09,519 --> 00:17:12,440 from the Seattle side of this game. Can the stock 341 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,000 be any higher right now than it is on the 342 00:17:16,039 --> 00:17:20,960 Seattle Seahawks. Everybody saw them on Sunday Night Football absolutely 343 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,440 destroy Washington thirty eight to fourteen. And remember, coming into 344 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,039 the season, Washington was a lot of people's darling because 345 00:17:29,039 --> 00:17:31,559 of what they did last year with a rookie quarterback, 346 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,960 making that run in the playoffs, beating the Lions, and 347 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,160 giving Philadelphia fits for as long as they did before 348 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,839 they lost. This was a team that had high expectations 349 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:49,440 coming into the season and Seattle absolutely dismantled them. Now, 350 00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:52,880 Jadeen Daniels got hurt, but it was late in the game, 351 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,519 and why he was still in the game. When he 352 00:17:55,599 --> 00:17:57,200 was in the game, when he had been banged up 353 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,799 all year and the game was out of hand. As 354 00:17:59,839 --> 00:18:04,039 another topic for another day, but I'm looking at this 355 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,839 and it's to me it's a sandwich spot. Seattle was 356 00:18:08,039 --> 00:18:11,960 on Sunday Night football, not often that they are a 357 00:18:12,039 --> 00:18:15,920 marquee team, and they had a very satisfying win. Now 358 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,839 you're gonna say, but Marco, this is a division game. 359 00:18:20,039 --> 00:18:23,319 You don't look past the division opponent. No, you don't, 360 00:18:23,519 --> 00:18:27,200 But you got two things here. They already beat Arizona 361 00:18:27,599 --> 00:18:30,759 in Arizona, so it's kind of easy to look past 362 00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:34,079 the team you already beat. But look who they play next. 363 00:18:34,599 --> 00:18:38,200 They play the Rams, and the Rams are the team 364 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,799 that game next week will be for first place. So 365 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,599 you can't help but look ahead to that one. And 366 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,359 you know, looking at the fact that, as they said, 367 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,240 they already beat Arizona. One of the angles I like 368 00:18:50,319 --> 00:18:53,960 in the NFL is I like taking an NFL road 369 00:18:54,079 --> 00:18:57,839 dog in the second meeting. If they lost the first 370 00:18:57,839 --> 00:19:01,920 meeting at home, you're gonna get an inflated line with them, 371 00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:05,599 because Vegas knows the public's gonna look at the game 372 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,759 and say, well, if they could beat them in Arizona, 373 00:19:08,799 --> 00:19:11,720 they sures that can beat them in Seattle. Uh, so 374 00:19:11,799 --> 00:19:14,480 you get a little bit of value taking that road. 375 00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:14,839 Speaker 4: Dog. 376 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:21,039 Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissett was clean last week, twenty one to thirty one, 377 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,440 two hundred and twenty one yards, two tds. 378 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 4: But here's the key. 379 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 3: Arizona is three and five this year, all five losses 380 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:35,720 combined thirteen points. I'm gonna go ahead and take Arizona 381 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,160 to keep another one close and find a way at 382 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,559 the end to win this one. Let's call it Arizona 383 00:19:42,599 --> 00:19:47,440 twenty four twenty three. Take the points. Take a little sprinkle. 384 00:19:47,839 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 2: All right if you are. 385 00:19:48,559 --> 00:19:52,039 Speaker 1: Last week, Marco's barking dog kept me off of a 386 00:19:52,079 --> 00:19:56,119 survivor play. And I'm a little concerned about the barking 387 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,000 dog this week. 388 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:57,319 Speaker 2: Right. 389 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 1: I had Carolina circled way back when, so I do 390 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,920 a spreadsheet throughout the whole season, I've had Carolina slated. 391 00:20:03,759 --> 00:20:04,599 Speaker 2: For this spot. 392 00:20:05,279 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 1: Now I'm having some second thoughts because they did beat 393 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,960 the Packers out right, and now they are playing the 394 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,000 lowly New Orleans Saints. 395 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 2: But this still is a divisional game. 396 00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 6: Yeah, and let's not forget I just gave out a 397 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,359 steam report that told you Carolina got steamed multiple times. 398 00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:25,599 I'm fading the wise, guys, I'm doing it again. I 399 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,839 did it last week with Minnesota. I've worked and moved 400 00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:32,480 these games long enough. I see this exact move over 401 00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:35,880 and over and over again. They do it automatically. You 402 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,039 have the rookie QUBA on the road, and the market 403 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,559 overreacts and downgrade it a little bit too much. 404 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:44,839 Speaker 5: And that's what's happening here. 405 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 2: Dude. 406 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,519 Speaker 5: You're looking at Carolina team that has one quality win. 407 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:48,400 That's it. 408 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,799 Speaker 6: Forget the Green Bay I don't care about that because 409 00:20:50,799 --> 00:20:52,720 they were two touchdown dogs and if they played that 410 00:20:52,759 --> 00:20:54,680 game three hours later, they probably would have lost by 411 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,759 three touchdowns. That's the randomness of a sixty minute football game. Otherwise, 412 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,079 they got blown out by Buffe, they got blown out 413 00:21:01,079 --> 00:21:03,519 by New England, and the wins they had were against 414 00:21:03,559 --> 00:21:08,039 the Jets, Dallas, and Miami, all by one score. So 415 00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:11,200 there's a ton of randomness involved, and rest ashore. Those 416 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,119 teams probably played some of the worst bawl that day. 417 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,960 Their one good win was against the Atlanta Falcons back 418 00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:21,200 on September twenty first, when they were five point home 419 00:21:21,319 --> 00:21:24,519 dogs and they won the game thirty to nothing. Okay, 420 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,400 that was the big win for them and for that 421 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,440 to happen, Pennix needed to throw two interceptions and lose 422 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,680 a fumball, so they had to go minus three and 423 00:21:33,759 --> 00:21:36,279 turnover ratio, which you're not going to win many football 424 00:21:36,319 --> 00:21:42,240 games doing that. For uh Carolina to get that w otherwise, 425 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,200 I don't see anything there that scares me. More importantly, 426 00:21:46,279 --> 00:21:49,839 what happened after that good game? A team just like Carolina, 427 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,960 which has zero consistency, gets blown out by thirty points 428 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,000 the following week. That's exactly what should happen this week 429 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,119 after a big win against Green Bay. Not that they're 430 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,359 going to get blown out by thirty points, but that 431 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,880 they don't have the consistency of a team that should 432 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,960 be able to follow that up and continue playing good 433 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,519 that we don't expect. And here's why Carolina is one 434 00:22:11,559 --> 00:22:15,240 of the worst teams in the NFL. Now, granted we 435 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,960 know the Saints are. In fact, when I look at 436 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,079 my power ratings, Saints are the second worst team in 437 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:25,359 the NFL. Only Tennessee would be an underdog to the Saints. Well, 438 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,200 when I look across from the Saints, it's Carolina. There's 439 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,720 only three teams that Carolina would be favored over, so 440 00:22:31,799 --> 00:22:34,440 they're the third or fourth worst team in the NFL 441 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:41,359 and they're a five point six point whatever they are favorite. 442 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,720 Makes absolutely no sense if you look at what the 443 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,759 betting line has been for this team the entire year. 444 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,759 Speaker 5: They've been dogs, dogs, dogs, dogs. Now you're putting them 445 00:22:50,759 --> 00:22:51,720 in the favorites role. 446 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 6: And for the exits and those guys, Yeah, I know, 447 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:56,880 Rattler isn't the quarterback. 448 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,880 Speaker 5: I think that's a good thing because of. 449 00:22:59,799 --> 00:23:03,599 Speaker 6: The overreaction, the price the kids coming in that from 450 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,839 Ore again, all right, here's what he has to follow. 451 00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:10,759 You have a quarterback for the Saints in uh Rattler 452 00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:15,160 whatever his name, was well below the average in the 453 00:23:15,279 --> 00:23:18,359 NFL for passing success rate, so I had him. He 454 00:23:18,519 --> 00:23:23,200 was the twenty fourth in passing success rate in the NFL. 455 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,119 The last two games he quarterback for the Saints, he 456 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,000 had a sixty eight point eight and a sixty six 457 00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:33,599 point six QBR. He threw two touchdowns and foreign interceptions. 458 00:23:34,079 --> 00:23:37,960 Where's the downgrade? If anything, I think the rest of 459 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,759 the team knows. We now have to show up because 460 00:23:40,799 --> 00:23:43,920 we're taking this rookie on the road, our second round 461 00:23:44,039 --> 00:23:47,000 draft pick, and we have to give some effort. And 462 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,480 fortunately for them it's a familiar opponent in Carolina that 463 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,400 they're facing. If anything, this is exactly where the Saints 464 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,359 need to be on the road, even with this rookie 465 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,640 quarterback faith and you're getting the pressure off of him 466 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,359 that he's not in New orkins. 467 00:24:01,079 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 5: I like the Saints here. 468 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,319 Speaker 6: Carolina has no business being this big of a favor. 469 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,440 If they were three, I would have had to consider 470 00:24:09,519 --> 00:24:12,440 still the Saints. But if I could take this up 471 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,039 to six at minus one point fifteen like we did, 472 00:24:15,599 --> 00:24:16,559 I'm all over the Saints. 473 00:24:16,599 --> 00:24:19,279 Speaker 5: Give me a Saints sprinkle the money line, live dog. 474 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,759 Speaker 1: Oh that is not what I wanted to hear, especially 475 00:24:22,759 --> 00:24:25,200 because I don't have a lot of better options available. 476 00:24:26,559 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: All right, may you hear. 477 00:24:28,599 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 5: My best bet? 478 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 2: Oh boy, you're gonna piss off the comments section NVR. 479 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 4: With a winner. 480 00:24:35,799 --> 00:24:37,759 Speaker 2: With a winner, how can you guys be mad with 481 00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:38,279 a winner? 482 00:24:38,519 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 5: Sneaky? 483 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 4: Ooh? 484 00:24:39,839 --> 00:24:42,279 Speaker 2: Whoof Oh I just looked, I just speak the head. 485 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 1: Oh god, people aren't going to get really mad at 486 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:50,920 you for that one, especially after their performance on Sunday 487 00:24:51,079 --> 00:24:54,240 Night Football. All Right, I'm gonna take a team that 488 00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:57,640 just beat their divisional rival in a team versus a 489 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,240 team that's trajectory is a. 490 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 2: Lot higher, but should it be. 491 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,279 Speaker 1: Hey, Baltimore won a nice twenty two point road win 492 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:11,079 at Miami still a team named Miami last week, but 493 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,440 Lamar Jackson you could tell he was not fully healthy, 494 00:25:14,839 --> 00:25:18,839 and rightfully so, he's off a hamstring injury. I will 495 00:25:18,839 --> 00:25:20,480 say this is going to have extra time to prepare 496 00:25:20,519 --> 00:25:23,759 for that one, and if Lamar Jackson does what we've 497 00:25:23,799 --> 00:25:27,519 seen him capable of, he may find success. But I 498 00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:29,519 don't think Lamar Jackson is gonna be able to spread 499 00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:32,599 the field just yet. And I think Minnesota has a 500 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,400 really solid defense. You know who doesn't have a solid defense, Baltimore. 501 00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:41,079 I think JJ McCarthy should be relatively comfortable against this 502 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,119 Ravens defense. 503 00:25:42,759 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 2: After all, his name is not to a turn the 504 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,000 ball over. 505 00:25:46,799 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 1: Vre mentioned in the steam room that the reason why 506 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,519 this total is getting steamed, they're trying to get ahead 507 00:25:52,519 --> 00:25:52,720 of it. 508 00:25:52,759 --> 00:25:53,400 Speaker 2: Of course they are. 509 00:25:53,559 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 1: Minnesota's last six games have all gone on over the total. 510 00:25:56,759 --> 00:25:59,759 Baltimore's road games this year four and one to the over. 511 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,920 I think this is going to be an absolute and 512 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,880 utter shootout. I do, however, I think Minnesota is gonna 513 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,400 come away with a home win this is their first 514 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:13,079 time at home in almost six weeks. So look for 515 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,640 those purple people eaters, not the Baltimore ones, but the 516 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:21,960 Minnesota ones to be real loud and excited there in Minneapolis. 517 00:26:22,759 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 2: Marco DiAngelo, let's. 518 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: Hear about these sandwiches, because boy oh boy, has the 519 00:26:28,279 --> 00:26:32,720 Deli been red hot four and one again last week 520 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,599 twenty seven and seventeen on the season. 521 00:26:36,079 --> 00:26:37,319 Speaker 2: And boy oh boy. 522 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,599 Speaker 1: I just realized you are also going to try to 523 00:26:40,599 --> 00:26:44,480 talk to me off taking the Panthers' support. Normally, I 524 00:26:44,519 --> 00:26:47,440 don't let these guys agree with each other like I 525 00:26:47,559 --> 00:26:49,720 make somebody pick and move things around. 526 00:26:49,839 --> 00:26:52,839 Speaker 2: But apparently we really like those Saints this week. 527 00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, and Marco was first. I looked back, I put 528 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:56,759 it there. I always checked. 529 00:26:56,799 --> 00:27:00,799 Speaker 6: He was first first for mere Happy. 530 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 1: All right, they're begging the rules, but this is now 531 00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:06,720 double trouble for my survivor. Pick be right back while 532 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,839 I'm gonna go check the spreadsheet. Marko, let's hear what 533 00:27:08,839 --> 00:27:09,880 the delis gotta say. 534 00:27:10,519 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 3: All right, Kelly, and what you were referring to that 535 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,920 twenty seven and seventeen record is the bonus edition of 536 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,880 the Deli. We do a video every Thursday. It'll come 537 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,319 out where I have generally five more games that didn't 538 00:27:24,319 --> 00:27:26,880 make this show, and I break them down for you 539 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,440 the way I do, So be sure to tune into that. 540 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,720 It'll be a standalone video on Thursday, and of course 541 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,440 it is included in the Mega Show as well. You 542 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,720 know what with these games, we took a lot of 543 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,400 heat last week with that Carolina play, and you know what, 544 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,079 so many times it's going to put you on an 545 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,359 ugly team. I understand that, but we're doing situations, okay, 546 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,519 and you got to trust the process. And sometimes it's 547 00:27:53,599 --> 00:27:57,119 not actually the team we're taking, but we're going against 548 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,759 a team that's in a very bad situation. Last week, 549 00:28:00,759 --> 00:28:02,960 it was green Bay that was in the bad situation. 550 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,519 They were coming off that satisfying win against the Steelers 551 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,680 where Jordan Love had his best game of the year 552 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,839 against the teacher, so to speak, in Aaron Rodgers. Then 553 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,519 they were playing lowly Carolina with them having a TV 554 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,960 game on deck against Philadelphia on Monday Night football. It 555 00:28:22,079 --> 00:28:25,680 was all about going against green Bay last week. That's 556 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,799 why we had Carolina. Well, for every reason we had 557 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,400 going against green Bay last week, all of those kind 558 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,720 of apply this week to Carolina. They're coming off of 559 00:28:36,759 --> 00:28:40,200 a very satisfying win. They went to lambeau Field and 560 00:28:40,279 --> 00:28:44,119 knocked off Green Bay. Now they're coming home to play 561 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,720 the one in eight Saints. How in the world do 562 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,759 you get excited for the one in eight Saints. You don't, 563 00:28:52,279 --> 00:28:54,440 even though it's a division game, because they're not a 564 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,799 team that you think is going to be a problem 565 00:28:56,839 --> 00:29:00,000 in the division. Next week they play Atlanta. Even though 566 00:29:00,079 --> 00:29:03,680 Atlanta is the third best team in the division. They're 567 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,599 better than New Orleans. It's something to look forward to. 568 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,599 And actually Atlanta's probably the second best team. It's just 569 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,559 a Carolina has a better record. Right now, this is 570 00:29:14,599 --> 00:29:18,319 a sandwich game. This is a trap game. Maybe more 571 00:29:18,359 --> 00:29:21,680 of a trap than a sandwich because Carolina they're fat 572 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,599 and sassy after last week's win and they're breaking one 573 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,279 of the rules that I like to fade teams with. 574 00:29:28,799 --> 00:29:31,720 I don't like taking a dog that had a great 575 00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:34,279 game and now is a favorite. I like to go 576 00:29:34,319 --> 00:29:39,359 against those teams. And we talked about r mentioned them 577 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,440 going to the rookie quarterback. Well, he actually played last week. 578 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,599 He started last week and that was good because he 579 00:29:45,759 --> 00:29:49,240 got that first game. Jitters off of you know, out 580 00:29:49,279 --> 00:29:51,640 of the way. He had a game where he went 581 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,839 fifteen of twenty four for one hundred and seventy six yards, 582 00:29:55,079 --> 00:30:00,160 one TV one interception. It wasn't a great game, but 583 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,319 it wasn't a bad game. But the difference is he 584 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,799 went against a very good Rams defense on the road 585 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,359 for his first start. The Rams are second in points 586 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:16,200 allowed defensively in fifth and yards per play allowed. If 587 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,119 he survived the Rams defense, he's definitely gonna survive the 588 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,920 Carolina defense, which is bottom third in yards per play allowed. 589 00:30:25,599 --> 00:30:29,359 Facing a softer defense and having that start under his belt, 590 00:30:29,759 --> 00:30:32,079 that tells me I think he's going to be more 591 00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:36,160 productive this week. Throw in the situation where Carolina is 592 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,839 feeling fat and sassy, I think this is one of 593 00:30:38,839 --> 00:30:40,920 those games where it goes right down to the wire. 594 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,480 We're talking about five and a half, and five and 595 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:47,440 a half is one of those numbers in the NFL 596 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,920 that when I see it, it's less than the six, 597 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,480 it's more than the three. Most people read those numbers 598 00:30:55,599 --> 00:30:58,359 and when they're looking at it, they're saying, oh, okay, well, 599 00:30:58,559 --> 00:31:01,319 they're over a field goal, supposed to win this game, 600 00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:03,960 and I'm getting them under a touchdown. So all you 601 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:05,720 gotta do is win by a touchdown. 602 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 4: Be careful. 603 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 3: I love those five and a half point underdogs. Let's 604 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,599 go ahead and take the Saints in an ugly one. 605 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:18,200 I'm gonna call it Saints seventeen sixteen for the Sandwich 606 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:19,240 game of the Week. 607 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,599 Speaker 1: Marco, you're so correct, those five and a half point underdogs. 608 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,640 We saw it with the Jets. That took out a 609 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,799 bunch of angles. They took out my last circa entry. 610 00:31:29,079 --> 00:31:31,720 All right, congrats, guys. You've successfully talked me off taking 611 00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:34,079 the Panthers and Survivor, and now I'm gonna have to 612 00:31:34,119 --> 00:31:37,759 take I have no idea who. All right, anyway, that 613 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,359 being said, we're gonna get right into those best bets. 614 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 2: E're up first. Go ahead and piss off the audience. 615 00:31:43,759 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 1: But before you do, please let everybody know what you've 616 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,680 got going on over at wager talk dot com. 617 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 6: All right, I'm not gonna fire a five percent this 618 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,319 week on the Sunday games. Maybe on the Monday, but 619 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,559 not on the Sundays because I really like this board 620 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,519 and I don't want to just narrow down that one 621 00:32:00,559 --> 00:32:03,880 strong play I've already released. Actually two four percent, there's 622 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,079 gonna be a handful of those in the card for sure. Also, 623 00:32:07,599 --> 00:32:10,400 college football card is up already. I'm not gonna throw 624 00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:13,599 five there either. These fours have been crushing it. We're 625 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,480 up over one hundred and thirty units already in college football, 626 00:32:17,559 --> 00:32:21,920 number one in profit, and already started college basketball number one. 627 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,119 Working with the same groups in college basketball that I 628 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,319 did college football, We're gonna do the exact same thing. 629 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 5: It's a great time to jump on board. The bulls 630 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,000 will be coming up before you know it. 631 00:32:32,359 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 6: NBA's here, NHL's here, Mma, there's so many sports easy 632 00:32:37,279 --> 00:32:40,160 to do damage. And again, make sure you join me 633 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,039 for this weekend because I've got a lot going on 634 00:32:43,079 --> 00:32:47,960 in football now. We're gonna come right back with a 635 00:32:48,079 --> 00:32:53,759 team that it looks like the sharp money is opposite 636 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,839 like last week, like the steam because of the adjustment. 637 00:32:58,440 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 5: But nothing could be further from the truth. 638 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 6: The adjustment is made based on the quarterback situation in 639 00:33:05,319 --> 00:33:09,200 Washington with Jaden Daniels. Here's why. When you look at 640 00:33:09,319 --> 00:33:13,279 the look ahead lined for Detroit and Washington, Okay, the 641 00:33:13,319 --> 00:33:16,359 look ahead was four and a half. That was already 642 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,359 too high because it got steamed to three and a half. 643 00:33:19,799 --> 00:33:23,160 So already they were lining up on the Washington side. 644 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,640 Then what happens. Daniels breaks an arm. Confirmed out, we 645 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,480 know who's the backup. They adjust the line six points 646 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:33,680 to nine and a half. 647 00:33:34,559 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 5: You're looking at nine right now because guys just like 648 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,240 myself bought the half a point. 649 00:33:39,079 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 6: Up to ten, because you should be laying about one 650 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,039 twenty two, one twenty four for that half a point 651 00:33:44,319 --> 00:33:46,480 instead of one to twenty. And that's why I send 652 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,119 it out to subscribers immediately. You're looking at nine's right now, 653 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,400 and don't be surprised if you get down to that 654 00:33:52,519 --> 00:33:53,279 eight and a half. 655 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 5: The only reason it hasn't. 656 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 6: Gone to eight and a half everywhere is teaser protection 657 00:33:58,599 --> 00:34:02,240 against Detroit, they would fall under the wong for sure, 658 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,960 and they don't want to get middled with Detroit minus 659 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,639 two and a half Washington plus nine, nine and a 660 00:34:08,679 --> 00:34:12,280 half and ten. That's why it's sitting where it's sitting 661 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,800 right now, and you can still get more points than 662 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,559 you should. Here's the bottom line over the last nine games, 663 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:22,320 Jade and Daniels QBR sixty three point one. All right, 664 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,480 that's what we need to go in there and. 665 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 4: Replace. 666 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,280 Speaker 6: Now, I get it. His potential is a lot higher. 667 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,079 His ceiling is a lot higher. But something has gone 668 00:34:34,119 --> 00:34:37,079 to miss down the stretch. He hasn't been healthy because 669 00:34:37,079 --> 00:34:40,400 over the first five games, my man had zero interceptions, 670 00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:43,800 playing great ball, and that's what he does, protects the 671 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:44,920 football very well. 672 00:34:45,559 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 5: Over the last four games, two interceptions. That's not like him. 673 00:34:49,199 --> 00:34:52,679 Speaker 6: So obviously he just he wasn't on point and that 674 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,239 showed in his QBR. He had a seventy two point 675 00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,079 seven in his last game. I keep talking about Jaden 676 00:34:59,159 --> 00:35:01,840 Daniels and the qu because that's what this line is 677 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,159 based on the replacement, and what I'm trying to explain 678 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:09,679 is this is an over adjustment that Jaden Daniels may 679 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:13,679 be worth six points if the drop off wasn't to Mariota. 680 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 5: That's the key. And Mariota is being judged harshly for that. 681 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 6: One performance against Kansas City where they got blown out 682 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,079 like twenty eight to seven, but he actually went twenty 683 00:35:26,119 --> 00:35:29,239 one to thirty passing through a touchdown. It was two 684 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,760 interceptions that cost them, and that is what he's being 685 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,559 punished for here. But if you look over career, the 686 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,280 drop off isn't worth a touchdown. 687 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:41,559 Speaker 5: It just isn't. 688 00:35:42,119 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 6: Very few quarterbacks are worth a touchdown to their backup, 689 00:35:46,599 --> 00:35:51,159 and especially someone with the experience the NFL experience that 690 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,039 this backup has. It's not a rookie QB behind them, 691 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,360 so he's capable of playing a good game. And I 692 00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,679 think that's what you're gonna get. Like you said, the 693 00:36:00,119 --> 00:36:04,079 coming off keil an ugly, ugly game on prime time. 694 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,280 So we have recency bias working for us. We have Detroit, 695 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,119 arguably the best team in the NFL or top two three, 696 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,840 coming off a loss. Most expect them to do what 697 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,639 they did when they lost to Kansas City. They bounced back, 698 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,519 They blew away Tampa Bay. That's not going to happen here. 699 00:36:21,559 --> 00:36:23,800 They're traveling on the road, and I think you're gonna 700 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,519 get a motivated Washington team to at least give you 701 00:36:26,599 --> 00:36:29,440 a lot of effort. Haven't been blown out in back 702 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:34,559 to back games. That was Seattle in Kansas City. If anything, 703 00:36:34,559 --> 00:36:37,440 that's going to prepare you for Detroit. I think we 704 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,360 get a much better game out of Washington. I think 705 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:43,679 they keep this a much closer than nine points and 706 00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:45,599 may want to sprinkle as well. 707 00:36:45,639 --> 00:36:46,440 Speaker 4: It is the NFL. 708 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,639 Speaker 6: Stranger things have happened, like the Minnesota Vikings, getting the 709 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:53,800 w So take the points best bet and we'll just keep. 710 00:36:53,679 --> 00:36:54,920 Speaker 5: Catching tickets in the NFL. 711 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,719 Speaker 1: I know this isn't relevant, but because we didn't talk 712 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,920 about the Colts game, But one of the funnier fights 713 00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:04,760 that we've seen over the last couple of weeks from 714 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:10,599 the comment section was the Indianapolis mascot trolling Marco in 715 00:37:10,679 --> 00:37:15,559 the TikTok the Wager Talk TikTok channel. I almost died. 716 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:19,519 It was absolutely and utterly hilarious. And since Dan alexander'sn't 717 00:37:19,519 --> 00:37:21,480 paying attention, I'm gonna put it on the screen. I 718 00:37:21,519 --> 00:37:25,960 gotta see that he was laughing in the comment section 719 00:37:26,039 --> 00:37:29,760 at Marco's pick against Indianapolis. The funny part was is 720 00:37:30,159 --> 00:37:34,400 Marco got to get his revenge from a fandom perspective 721 00:37:34,599 --> 00:37:35,199 last week. 722 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,199 Speaker 2: That was now, I screwed it all up. 723 00:37:37,199 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 1: See Dan, see what happens when when you're doing other 724 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,719 stuff and I get to run the controls? 725 00:37:42,199 --> 00:37:44,159 Speaker 2: Uh, Marco D'ANGELI again, I know. 726 00:37:44,119 --> 00:37:47,760 Speaker 1: It wasn't relative, but I saw that graphic and I 727 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:48,559 just lost it. 728 00:37:49,159 --> 00:37:51,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, that when he told me was a couple of 729 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,079 weeks ago when I had the Chargers against the Colts. 730 00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you come in with the bah ha. 731 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:04,320 Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, Steelers beat the Colts and is the fandom. 732 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,519 Speaker 4: I'll take it. They really didn't deserve it. Don't get 733 00:38:07,519 --> 00:38:08,880 too excited about it. 734 00:38:09,199 --> 00:38:13,079 Speaker 3: The six turnovers by the Colts last week helped the 735 00:38:13,119 --> 00:38:17,480 Steelers along. But yeah, it was funny. And you know, 736 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,960 Dan and John making the graphic of us fighting. 737 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,159 Speaker 1: A I is good for something. How about that make 738 00:38:25,199 --> 00:38:28,440 it a fun graphic. If you guys have something to 739 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,119 say to Marco or VR or myself, feel free to 740 00:38:31,159 --> 00:38:31,400 do so. 741 00:38:31,559 --> 00:38:34,719 Speaker 2: We love love, love, love, love, all of the love 742 00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:35,360 or hate. 743 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,760 Speaker 1: In the comment section, guys need you to do meet 744 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,599 one more favor though. Everybody, get ready because we're gonna 745 00:38:41,599 --> 00:38:46,079 wish Marco di'angelo a very happy birthday in the comment section. 746 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,360 Speaker 2: You guys can be nice to him one time a year, 747 00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:49,320 So do that for me. 748 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,719 Speaker 1: In and Marco, let me know before you give us 749 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,199 your best bet for NFL Week ten, what your birthday 750 00:38:55,199 --> 00:38:57,400 special is over at wager talk dot com. 751 00:38:58,199 --> 00:39:00,519 Speaker 4: Well, we've been doing this for a long time. I'm Kelly. 752 00:39:00,559 --> 00:39:03,800 Speaker 3: Every time it is my birthday week, we offer the 753 00:39:04,599 --> 00:39:09,119 week for my age, So definitely, I you know, that's 754 00:39:09,159 --> 00:39:12,159 one plus of getting older. I get an extra dollar 755 00:39:12,199 --> 00:39:15,639 out of everybody every year, but it's still of value 756 00:39:15,679 --> 00:39:18,159 to you guys. You know the forty nine dollars Weekend 757 00:39:18,199 --> 00:39:21,159 Warrior package that has been one of the most popular 758 00:39:21,199 --> 00:39:24,239 packages that we have. You can buy your favorite kapper 759 00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,960 for the weekend for forty nine dollars. You'll get all 760 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,719 of their college football, all of their NFL and if 761 00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,880 they've got a Monday Night play, it's included free. 762 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:34,320 Speaker 4: No brainer on that. 763 00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:38,599 Speaker 3: Well, how about getting every play for seven days for 764 00:39:38,679 --> 00:39:42,000 fifteen dollars more. That's what happens this week. If you 765 00:39:42,039 --> 00:39:45,159 buy my Birthday bash for me, you can get all 766 00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:48,000 of my plays seven days from the day sign up 767 00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:52,440 for sixty four dollars. Guys, we are on a roll 768 00:39:52,519 --> 00:39:55,920 right now, rolling into my birthday on an eleven and 769 00:39:56,039 --> 00:40:00,320 two run since last Thursday, which has resulted in a 770 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,920 profit for our clients of twenty over twenty five hundred dollars. 771 00:40:04,199 --> 00:40:07,800 And we nailed another five percent play last week. We 772 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:11,760 had Texas Tech over Kiansas State that forty three to 773 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,480 twenty win. That brings the record to thirty five and 774 00:40:15,519 --> 00:40:19,039 sixteen on those five percent plays. Why am I talking 775 00:40:19,079 --> 00:40:21,679 about the five percents because they sell for thirty five 776 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,079 dollars by themselves, and you're gonna get one this week 777 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,440 with the seven day package. So that's half of the 778 00:40:28,519 --> 00:40:31,960 subscription right there. Sign up, Head on over to wager 779 00:40:32,039 --> 00:40:34,559 talk dot com and join me for the birthday week 780 00:40:34,599 --> 00:40:37,320 as we continue to celebrate with winners. 781 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:39,199 Speaker 4: And speaking of winners, we're. 782 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 3: Gonna look at the same game the VR did, only 783 00:40:41,519 --> 00:40:44,599 a different way, and we both can win this one. 784 00:40:44,639 --> 00:40:49,039 And I hope Aces rate with his Washington play because 785 00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,280 that means Washington's gonna be scoring points. And as I 786 00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:58,480 talked about in previous UH play, you got Marcus Mariota. 787 00:40:58,679 --> 00:41:03,480 He is the same type of quarterback as Daniels, so 788 00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,159 whenever they go to him, it's not changing the offensive 789 00:41:07,199 --> 00:41:11,079 game plan. All it does is make Marcus Mariota get 790 00:41:11,119 --> 00:41:14,079 all the snaps this week for an offense. He's already 791 00:41:14,119 --> 00:41:17,440 gonna know how to run. So I looked for Washington 792 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,320 to score points, but I'm not going with Washington. What 793 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,960 I'm going with is a team total on the Detroit Lions. 794 00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,199 Why because Detroit's gonna come in here with the pedal 795 00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,519 to the medal. They lost the game last week that 796 00:41:30,599 --> 00:41:32,800 probably they shouldn't they got caught looking ahead. 797 00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,320 Speaker 4: In my opinion, even though. 798 00:41:34,159 --> 00:41:40,599 Speaker 3: Minnesota was a division game, Minnesota's not playing good. Minnesota 799 00:41:40,679 --> 00:41:46,400 had their starting quarterback, you know, knocked out before then 800 00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,079 it was Carson Wentz. Then he got knocked out, and 801 00:41:49,119 --> 00:41:53,400 then we didn't know last week midweek for sure who 802 00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:58,599 was going to start for Minnesota. JJ McCarthy was later 803 00:41:58,639 --> 00:42:00,599 announced in the week that he was going to play, 804 00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,719 but you didn't know how he was gonna play coming 805 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,960 off the injury. Well, he played well in Minnesota got 806 00:42:07,079 --> 00:42:09,559 their revenge. Remember that game at the end of the 807 00:42:09,639 --> 00:42:13,360 season last year that was for the division title. Well, 808 00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,519 let's go ahead and look at Detroit and revenge this week. 809 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:22,000 It was Washington that knocked them out of the playoffs 810 00:42:22,079 --> 00:42:25,760 last year. And you've got an angry Detroit team coming 811 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:30,800 off a rare loss at home. What's Dan Campbell's you know, trademark. 812 00:42:31,079 --> 00:42:33,159 He likes to be a bully. Whenever he gets a 813 00:42:33,199 --> 00:42:35,519 team that he can get a lead on. He never 814 00:42:35,599 --> 00:42:39,679 takes his foot off the gas. He keeps pushing down field. 815 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,880 And I think they're going to score points in this game. 816 00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:48,079 Why because the Washington defense is not good. Detroit last 817 00:42:48,119 --> 00:42:51,920 three games, I realize they've been held to seventeen, twenty four, 818 00:42:52,039 --> 00:42:56,280 and twenty four. That's way under their team total for 819 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,119 this game of twenty nine and a half. But I 820 00:42:59,159 --> 00:43:01,440 also got to point out out those three teams that 821 00:43:01,599 --> 00:43:05,639 held him to those totals was Kansas City, Tampa Bay, 822 00:43:05,679 --> 00:43:06,519 and Minnesota. 823 00:43:07,199 --> 00:43:07,920 Speaker 4: Check the stats. 824 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:12,480 Speaker 3: Those are all good defensive teams overall. They're not facing 825 00:43:12,519 --> 00:43:16,400 one of those good defensive teams here. Washington has given 826 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,039 up forty four, twenty eight, and thirty eight in the 827 00:43:19,119 --> 00:43:22,000 last three games. I look for this one to be 828 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,760 both teams going up and down the field. But I'm 829 00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,719 gonna go ahead and take Detroit team total rather than 830 00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,440 the whole over for the game, which I also like 831 00:43:31,519 --> 00:43:35,159 as well. But I like Detroit team total over twenty 832 00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,880 nine and a half. I think they get into the 833 00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,760 thirties easily in this one as they get their little 834 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,119 revenge and as Dan Campbell likes to do, he likes 835 00:43:44,119 --> 00:43:46,800 to be the bully and send a message. Remember that's 836 00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,000 Chicago Bears game early in the year when he just 837 00:43:50,119 --> 00:43:55,800 kept passing in the fourth quarter against his former assistant coach. Yeah, 838 00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,079 and they were coming off a loss in that one too. 839 00:43:58,639 --> 00:44:02,360 Let's go over Team Tote Detroit for our best. 840 00:44:02,079 --> 00:44:05,400 Speaker 1: Bet, all right, and for my best bet, we're going 841 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,480 with another short home favorite. 842 00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,039 Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield. Please stay healthy for this one. 843 00:44:10,079 --> 00:44:13,840 Speaker 1: I'm gonna knock on some wood behind me because that 844 00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,480 was not fun last week CJ Stroud getting knocked out 845 00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,960 there in the second quarter and costing US a five 846 00:44:20,039 --> 00:44:24,079 to zero and the prestigious Westgates Super Contest. This week, 847 00:44:24,119 --> 00:44:26,239 we're gonna take another short home favorite, and we're going 848 00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,880 against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. 849 00:44:29,039 --> 00:44:35,280 Speaker 2: That's right, the New England Patriots. Drake may MVP anyone right, 850 00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,159 three hundred and fourteen total yards last week. 851 00:44:38,159 --> 00:44:40,400 Speaker 1: That was two hundred and fifty nine passing by Drake, 852 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,559 two touchdowns and boy oh boy, to that defense do 853 00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:44,400 its job. 854 00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:46,800 Speaker 2: But Atlanta got the cover for us. 855 00:44:47,159 --> 00:44:52,400 Speaker 1: Patriots still sacked six times. What is this Bucks defense 856 00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,719 gonna do there? And this is a Bucks defense that 857 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,480 I think deserves a little bit more credit. They are 858 00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:04,000 gonna be hell healthier. Speaking of health, oh shocker, look 859 00:45:04,039 --> 00:45:08,199 who might be back Chris Godwin for Baker Mayfield, who 860 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:09,880 actually should. 861 00:45:09,559 --> 00:45:10,760 Speaker 2: Be the MVP. 862 00:45:11,599 --> 00:45:15,039 Speaker 1: This is a Tampa Bay team that I really like 863 00:45:15,119 --> 00:45:18,679 here in this spot coming off of by sure, New 864 00:45:18,679 --> 00:45:21,440 England's covered five straight road games. But they're not playing 865 00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,679 the Tennessee Titans this week, boys and girls, They're playing 866 00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,840 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I will say this, did I 867 00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:32,320 tease the Patriots? I might have, but I like the 868 00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:36,400 Bucks here laying two and a half at home to 869 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:40,719 get a nice win of let's call it a touchdown. 870 00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,840 Speaker 2: Perfect scenario for both worlds. 871 00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:46,159 Speaker 1: Speaking of perfect scenarios, the last two weeks of beat 872 00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,760 on It have been damn near perfect scenarios for us 873 00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,599 here in college football and NFL. And if you guys 874 00:45:51,639 --> 00:45:53,199 got something to say about it, we want to hear 875 00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,320 from you. So shout out to Marco, shout out to VR. 876 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,639 Since you guys never give them enough thanks in the 877 00:45:58,679 --> 00:46:01,440 comments section, I'll do it for you. And if you 878 00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,599 guys are looking for that college football edition to bet 879 00:46:03,599 --> 00:46:05,480 on It, it's right here. Of course, we've got the 880 00:46:05,559 --> 00:46:08,840 Mega Show. Don't forget to also check out Marcos and 881 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:09,679 Deli and 882 00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,920 Speaker 2: The Steam Room on Sundays at twelve pm Eastern