Speaker 1: Your love.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is Monday, Fresh lines, new week, Fresh opportunities. We're
gonna recap what we learned over the weekend, and we're
gonna get you locked in with NFL college football and
an MLB breakdown. Let's set the tone for a winning
week right out of the gate, people, let's do this.
Hit the like button. You guys know, you guys know
how this works. Just just hit the like button while
we're While we're waiting here, we're gonna talk to Yanni,
do the Steam report. Crack Man's gonna join us, talk
about a prop in the Lions and the Ravens, and
then Steve Meryl is gonna join us. We're gonna break
down this game, and we're going to talk Brewers and
the Padres. So let's bring in Yanni, Yanni, Happy Monday.
It's raining here where I am. But hey man, it's
a new week, time for time for new profits. Man,
let's do this. Let's have a big week.
Speaker 3: Indeed, it is a great, great week of action, good
week for myself and subscribers. Eight and three in the
NFL yesterday turned in another winning week in college football.
So we won in week zero, Week one, Week two,
and week three of college football. Currently number one in
college football twenty twenty five, number one in NFL regular
season through those first two week three weeks now right, wow,
So yeah, the season's moving along great.
Speaker 1: So far, so good.
Speaker 3: If you're on board, just manage risk correctly. We're gonna
have the best NFL college football season we've had in
a while.
Speaker 1: So far, so good.
Speaker 4: Just keep grinding. Things are going good.
Speaker 3: Not a busy day today, but it's it's kind of
necessary after a busy weekend.
Speaker 4: So not too bad. And big week ahead, big week,
especially in college football.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about that. Let's do uh, let's let's
talk NFL here a little bit. We got the game tonight,
we got looking headlines. What's jumping off the board to you?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 1: Great?
Speaker 3: Great, great week for the books. It was a really
really good week to be a book maker yesterday. In fact,
the heaviest one sided bet game was Houston early they
didn't get there against Jacksonville and then Dallas late they
didn't get there. Kansas City did get some of that
money back for the recreational betters, but most of the
money line parlays teasers that were live going in Sunday
night football were dead by the end of those late
afternoon games as the Saints went down.
Speaker 4: The only one sided heavily.
Speaker 3: Bet public team also sharp that that got the money
was Indianapolis. They did a really good job of balance
yesterday you sol favorites went eight and six, good balance
over unders went seven and seven. So it was a
really good day for book makers and real quickly, I
just want to point out, because people ask me all
the time, you know what stats to look at? None
stronger in the NFL than passing success rate if you
look I talk about that all the time and has
the highest correlation the winning that I found. And right now,
if you look at the top six quarterbacks that have
above a passing success rate, it's Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Stafford,
Allen Jones, and Haybart. They are a combined six nine twelve.
They're combined sixteen and two straight off those guys. So again,
it's a little early in the season unfortunately for football,
we just won't have a big sample size. But you
could already project those quarterbacks that are having success and
it's it's equating into winning some football games. Now getting
into tonight's game, we saw some early sharp money on Detroit,
but that was at the look aheadline of six and
a half. That line was like six and a half
five and a half it went down to But since
it's been about four to four and a half, we're
seeing pretty good two AA action. I'm sure when it
kicks off Baltimore will probably be a little heavier when
you factor in the moneyline parlays. The over continues to
get bet I saw a great stat about those totals
that are in the high fifties. They've done really well
on going over. This is the highest total so far
in twenty twenty five. Over the last five years, okay,
games in the NFL with a total of fifty or
higher have gone over fifty eight percent of the time.
So right now this is heavily bet over one sided
over money. There was some sharp over money that got
out ahead at about fifty and a half, but since
then it's been a lot of pressure from recreational betters
on that over and they're trying to attract some under money.
Speaker 4: I saw fifty four.
Speaker 3: A couple of bites of the unders, so I think
they know if they go to fifty four or higher
they'll get some under money. So pay attention to the
on screen and see if the books take a position
or not.
Speaker 2: Looking at some of the lines that came out for
next week, not really seeing much.
Speaker 4: No action, big movement.
Speaker 2: This is really strange, Johnny. I don't see anything.
Speaker 3: I've been seen a single bet in the accounts, not
a single bet in college or the NFL. And usually
I'll wake up Monday morning and they'll be like twelve thirteen,
fourteen pieces of college football that they got out ahead,
usually around the number three, around the number seven.
Speaker 4: Nothing nothing so far this week. Interesting.
Speaker 2: That is strange. On a Monday morning, we don't have
any bets.
Speaker 3: And if you look at the odd screen, if you
don't have Odds logic to go to wage to talk
odd screen, click that and you'll.
Speaker 4: See not a lot of movement at all.
Speaker 3: I mean there's some half point movements, there's some half
point movements on totals, but you're not seeing any like
one and a half two point line movements. Nothing on
any injuries or anything like that. I just keep talking
through and not seeing anything bigger than a half point
line movement so far in college football or NFL.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk a little bit of college football this week. Yeah,
I mean I think the Oregon Penn State's probably going
to be your biggest one. Penn State minus three and
a half point favorite at home. Boy, where have we
seen this before? James Franklin, coach of Penn State in
a big game as a favorite. Oh Man, that spells disaster.
Alabama Georgia, Georgia the favorite. What are you seeing? Lines
wise like it or what do you like it?
Speaker 3: A perfect example of how you're able to take advantage
of overvalued and undervalued teams this early in the season.
Speaker 4: This is where most of our money has come from
in college football. This is a perfect example.
Speaker 3: You have Mississippi as two and a half point favorites
again LSU.
Speaker 4: Here's the problem.
Speaker 3: When you look at the rankings, you'll see LSU fourth
in Mississippi thirteenth.
Speaker 4: But nothing could be further from the truth.
Speaker 3: If you look at most power ratings of winning college
football betters, they're going to reflect that Mississippi is close
to a top five power rated team. LSU is barely
a top fifteen power rated team. That's why Mississippi is
favored over LSU. Same situation in Georgia Alabama, where you
have the rankings, they have Alabama second, Georgia I mean
Alabama seventeenth, Georgia fifth. If you look at power ratings,
most again winning comn football betters will have Alabama in
their top five. There may be only one or two
teams that would be favored over Alabama on a neutral field.
That's why Georgia is only a three point favorite power
rating wise, these two are right next to each other.
And the same thing you know with Penn State and Oregon,
where the rankings have Oregon sixth and Penn State third,
and it's kind of opposite. Most power ratings will have
Oregon above Penn State right now.
Speaker 4: So it's really interesting.
Speaker 3: Like I was looking at them this morning, I still
can't believe they.
Speaker 4: Have Miami as the second best team in the country.
Speaker 3: And I can tell you right now with certainty that
there's at least ten teams, at least ten teams that
would be favored over Miami on a neutral field.
Speaker 4: True true line.
Speaker 3: So I think when it comes to college football, until
we get later in the season, that'll play itself out.
Speaker 4: But early on they're strictly going off records.
Speaker 3: More or less, you're four and oh you're in the
top fifteen, top ten, top whatever, regardless of your power rating.
But you notice when it comes to the point spreads,
no one cares what the ratings are. Vegas backs door
opinions with cold heart cash and if they make a mistake,
someone's going to have them paying for it. And that's
why they have the thirteenth ranked Mississippi over the fourth
ranked LSU because on their power ratings, it's more like
Mississippi's top five LSU top fifteen. So pay attention to
that was going into this week college football. Over the
next couple of weeks, you'll be able to take advantage
of that.
Speaker 4: For sure.
Speaker 2: We don't have a whole lot, and that's fine. We
don't need to make a bunch of bets. I only
have one bet up for tonight. That's all I need
to turn a profit. Any thoughts on the uf Yeah,
any thoughts on the UFC. We got this strange Australian
card where it's just Australian fighters after Australian fighters. That's
the main event. Got big favorite oldberg Over race. Do
you like anything in UFC early for these lines.
Speaker 4: Nothing jumped down at me.
Speaker 3: It's one of those I think we won't really get
much action till we approached closer to the weekend because
we had the week off in the UFC, and it
always does that, you know, until they start having press
conferences weigh in and start attracting attention for this card,
you're not seeing too much action and just keeping it real.
Speaker 4: Don't want to waste the viewers time.
Speaker 3: Nothing jumped out at me immediately that you know, I
got to get down before this number moves. But again,
it's not a bad thing. We're coming off a nice
couple of weeks and just take what they give us.
Like you said, you give me a bet, I'll get
down on it. We don't have a bet. We got
to move on to the next day.
Speaker 4: That's what it comes down to.
Speaker 2: Anytime you give me a chance to bet against a TAFA, brother,
I'm all in, baby.
Speaker 4: All in, all in.
Speaker 2: Give me this, Louis Sutherland guy, I can bet against
the TAFA. I'll take it. I'll take it all right.
What do you have up for clients on this Monday?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Right now, it's the NFL and college football packages are
up for the season. Again, if you're betting college football
in NFL, numbers don't lie. The information continues to come in,
doing a good job of filtering it and releasing the
strongest stuff to subscribers.
Speaker 4: So far, so good.
Speaker 3: Again, join us and working on the Monday night called
I have a strong lean that I'm trying to confirm.
Speaker 4: If I'm able to do it, that play will be up.
Speaker 3: Otherwise we're going to move on to Tuesday, because again
the one goal one goal only December thirty first rolls around.
Have a winning twenty twenty five. If our goal is aligned,
you won't be disappointed. Unfortunately, I don't have a lock
yet for tonight, but the days early.
Speaker 2: All right, all right, Yanni the Greek, congratulations on a
big day in an NFL how fun at Contender series tomorrow.
We'll catch up with you again on Thursday, YANNII the Greek. Everyone,
all right, let's do dan, Let's do our uh, let's
do our graphics. About the overreactions, Let's talk about some
player props and fantasy. We'll talk about where the books won,
where the public one. We'll start with the over reacting.
Where what are our week three over reactions? Here? So
the Packers are overrated. That seems like a really big overreaction.
We're just gonna throw away the first two weeks and
then say they're overrated. Panthers are legit coming off of
a huge win. Block to see you in the comments section,
Cult super Bowl futures look great. Carson Wentz is better
than JJ McCarthy. That one was very popular on Twitter yesterday,
very very popular. Dan, Your Eagles are passing team now,
that was that was an overreaction. And then my favorite
thing the NFL isn't calling false starts on the tush push. Dan,
you had to laugh your ass off when they did
call a false start on the tush push, but they
called it against the Saints, not the Eagles, which was
just absolutely of course, they just pick on the Saints.
Speaker 5: The fun part is you thinking, I was watching the
Saints game and that's the funniest.
Speaker 2: We were watching the Saints on on the The End
Zone live on the Live Show, and Veno just started
laughing and he's like, they just called a false start
on the Saints for the touchbush. Meanwhile, your Eagles are
just getting away with anything they want to do on
that toush push. So let me know in the comment section.
Let me know in the chat what's your favorite overreaction
of the of of the week. And yeah, Bruce, we
say never overreact this. This is just a fun thing.
I go to social media and I try and find
some of the funniest overreacting things. I think my I
think my favorite is the Packers are overrated. That was
that was my favorite one. Like like week two, we
were ready to annoy them the Super Bowl they get upset, which,
by the way, it happens every single year. So Travis
likes the Carson Wentz is better for now, MacArthur looks overwhelmed. Listen,
here's my theory about JJ McCarthy. I really truly believe this.
I'll get Bill's thoughts. JJ McCarthy had a baby on
that Thursday. He and his he and his girl had
a baby on the Thursday, and then he looked terrible
on the Sunday game. I really think the vikings went
to him is like, take a month off be with
your newborn son. This is way too much to have
a baby, your first baby, and run an NFL team
and basically your rookie year. I really think he's not hurt.
I think they just said, go take some time and
clear your head and be with your your newborn baby.
Because I didn't see him get hurt in the game.
Just after the game, they're like, oh, his ankle hurts,
So that's I don't know. That was my That was
my theory on JJ McCarthy. Not the worst thing in
the world. So all right, Dale, let's move to the
next graphic. Let's do where the books won. Where the
public one. Yanny gave us a few of those already,
but the Falcons was just the brutal one. A lot
of money on the Falcons money line minus the points.
That was a big one. Texans money line, Yanni mentioned,
there was a lot of money on that. Bengals Vikings
under and some turnovers really got that one over. And
where the public one, the Colts were the big winner,
the Browns and Packers under was big winner, and Seahawks.
Everything that anybody had on the Seahawks cashed in that one.
So all right, so that's where the books won, where
the public one. Now let's take a look at props
and fantasy football winners and losers, and boy, there are
some big, big names that are massive, massive losers, winners
Trey Tucker for the Raiders had the huge game. Jordan
Mason looks incredible and he gets another great matchup coming
up in the Ireland game. Hunter Henry looked amazing. Jalen
Hurts and aj Brown looks like we're not panicking about
them anymore. Puka Nakua just absolute stud. Judkins for Cleveland
and he's wrapped up that starting job. Jonathan Taylor is incredible,
and Taekwon Thornton. The Patriots passed on him, they released him,
and now he's like making big plays for the Chiefs.
Here's my theory on the Chiefs. The Chiefs are gonna
get Xavier Worthy back and they were she Rice and
by the end of the season they're gonna all of
a sudden have the best wide receiving corps going into
the playoffs. It's gonna be everyone that doesn't like the
Chiefs is gonna hate what's getting ready to happen. The
Chiefs are gonna end up with this amazing wide receiving corps.
All right, big losers, the Falcons. Anytime you get skunked,
you're not gonna have your fantasy or prop. Guys do anything.
Ashton Genty continues to be a disappointment. We cashed his
under rushing and receiving we talked about on the show,
but that was a nice cash for clients. The Bengals,
Jamar Chase and Chase Brown, yikes, we got big problems
with these guys. Chase Brown is absolutely terrible. Brian Thomas
Junior is really bad. Jerry Judy had a terrible one.
And as long as Russell Wilson is the quarterback, Milik
Neighbors is in big trouble. So anybody that owns the
Milik Neighbors praying that we get Jackson Dart this week.
So those are your prop Fantasy football winners and losers.
All right, Bill, Let's bring on Bill and let's talk
a little bit about NFL Week three. What was some
of your takeaways, What were some of the some of
the reactions that you had over the weekend.
Speaker 1: Well, first and the foremost, don't want to say, first,
my condolences to Dave, which is Dave Shapen. I know
everyone's been talking about it. I put it up. I
talked about it on my Fox Nationwide show yesterday. I
put it on Twitter. Guys younger than me, like I
think he was like fifty four years old, just so
much energy, running around sports books, celebrating things, talking cool
and me and Dave disagreed on one thing. You always
said nobody knows shit. That's not true. But however, Dave
and I were on the same side of life winning.
He was such a good guy, good person. I've known
him about twenty five years. He was off shore working
a couple of sports books, Cure us out, and then
he worked at the Golden Nugget and William Hill. In
the end, he worked in a lot of places. Dave
sherp and sports book on Concieri, Uh yeah, and Mike
adults is the family three kids. Uh you know, I
don't want to be a sour, but I want to,
you know, talk about a guy that we're trying to
beat games by half points here and these people or
someone lost their life. That that was a kid. Let's
call him a kid. You're to cancer. By the way,
he didn't it wasn't. They knew that it was he
was suffering, but we didn't know he was dying. So
that's a shame. But talking about yesterday's games though, just
like Dave would want you to do. All right, it's
enough and me get over let's talk about football. That's
exactly what Davi would be saying. So, yeah, that's one
of the worst beats of my life. Everyone's talking about that.
I actually had four and a half, four and three
and a half minus oh five, I had I bet
three different I don't really bet a lot of sides
so heavy, but I that was my best side of
the week, even though you know, you know, I'm one
of those guys that's transparent to talk about good things
and bad things. So I had an unbelievable week, by
the way, very profitable week, very profitable week. Again for
way you talk guys football. They can't beat me in
football overall, not gonna beat me. But I will talk
about what I should have had a better day yesterday,
even that that Rams game was really really really really tough,
really tough loss for watching it. And as you can see,
I'm in a different atmosphere here. I'm in Scranton, Pennsylvania, by
the way, flying back to Vegas tonight. But I'm at
my buddy's house, who who like the comer. Every day
he collects a little knickknacks and things you could see
and it's funny. There's the sad clown there, and there's
another sad clown. It's a sad clown after watching that
game yesterday. But of course he's in Scranton, Philly fan screaming,
yelling block the gig score. He doesn't even know. He
has no clue. He's upstairs right now. He has no
clue how much money I've had on the game. And
I know what he had. He bet fifty eight dollars.
He showed me. It's fifty eight dollars in ESPN Bet.
You know, to see he's allowed to bet in the
ESPN Bet. You could see how he does overall, because
no one that wins is a lot to play there.
So yeah, he won his fifty bucks on the Eagles
yesterday and minus three and a half and I lost
close to five figures on the same game. Good for you,
I was. I don't see, he still doesn't know. I'm
not like. I'm actually pretty good at that, you know,
I take washes very well. That one bothered me though.
But yeah, so but however, a great week I just
seen on the wager talks. I knew I did really good.
I just didn't know what. Yeah, it looks like fifteen
and say, okay, it says, I'm running super hot football,
winning fifteen to last twenty one. Yeah, but I knew
I had. I had a big weekend too in general,
just in general, I knew I had, I had a
really good week. So NCA it was again after like
I think I was nine, and it was nine and three,
last week of eight and four. This week again college
football they got they have no chance. Let me bet,
let me bet, Let me give the clients that college
football and you got no chance to lose. But you know,
now we're starting out on fire. NFL was actually seven
and three, could have been eight and two with them rams. Yeah, listen,
it's the softer side of the markets too. Here. College
football in the first like six seven weeks, fantastic NFL props,
player props. They're not gonna beat me overall, and player
props and NFL sides. I put out some sides on
these games and again, and you know, overall, you're not
gonna be able to beat me on more of the props.
I'm more of into the props than the sides. It's
a perfect example. Andy. You can go up to the
counter of any sports book and ask what they'll take
on Lamar Jackson over under passing yards tonight and they'll
say five hundred dollars, maybe a thousand we need. But
if you've been gonna bet a thousand, I need your ID,
I need your fingerprints, your eye scans and everything else.
But if you want to bet the side, if you
want to bet Detroit or the Baltimore whatever, you can
jump out on the counter here. If you can dump
out half a million, we'll take it. That's how efficient
that line is compared to player props. So that's the reason.
But that's the big thing. That's what everyone wants to
talk about. The only thing in town people like to
talk about is NFL sides. And I get it. It's fun.
I sat here yesterday and watch games all day long.
I haven't done that from beginning to start. After my
Fox show got off the air at one pm East
Coast time, I was on till the end of the
Giant game, sitting here at my buddy. He's screaming, yelling,
throwing things at the TV. I gotta be blunt. I
shouldn't do this to him. But the guy's a multipi millionaire.
You betting fifty dollars a game? The what's going on.
You know, this is a good representation of what's going
on in America, like what goes on with these people
with the games and then you could just see the
human condition when I see him, and I know what
he's done his whole life. I know he's had companies, businesses, money,
tons of money. He's screaming and yelling, scream and Yellen.
I said, wow, And this really shows me what the
what the what's going on in America here? ESPN Bet
he's got all his apps up there, and you know,
and I can imagine with these other kids that don't
have money, what they're going through. It must rip their
hearts out there, aging by the day. So uh, you know,
it's really really like I said, it is what goes on.
I'm not making fun of nobody. All I'm saying is
you have to bet within your means. You got to
have some fun, you have to enjoy yourself. This person
bets well within his means and he's going crazy. So
what shot does Joe Public have grinded out? Uh? You know,
getting paychecks every week and and and cashing them and
send it up to the sports book. So anyway, I know,
I'm going off on tangents. Hello, Hello everyone.
Speaker 2: That's all right, that's all right. Your your screen is frozen,
but we can still hear you. So we're gonna put
me on screen that way. Uh show my hands.
Speaker 1: With show double camera and I lost.
Speaker 2: Give us a give us a prop that you like
for tonight.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I just seen I wanted to look at
the best line for you, but you know you could.
This is gonna be moving around anywhere. I'm looking at
at at MGM. But Lamar Jackson passing over tonight, Well,
like I said, go to that window, see what happens
over two hundred and thirty one and a half, two
thirty three and a half. I'm looking at two thirty
one and a half. Though this number might seem a
little seem a little high for Lamar, but the Lions
pass defense not they haven't been good this year. And
you know I expect him to stack the box the
rams to force Jackson to throw more tonight. Lamar finally
has some really good receivers out there that are healthy flowers. Bateman, Hopkins, Andrews,
these guys are all healthy. Games should have some points,
like we said, lots of in the air. Lamar Jackson
overpassing yards.
Speaker 2: I like it. I like it. I got some I
like David Montgomery over his rush attempts here. And I'll
tell you what's amazing about the books talking about the props.
You can bet way more live than you.
Speaker 1: Can Well, you're laying double double the juice live too,
double the juice.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that.
Speaker 1: Live NFL and live things in general. It's a very
popular thing. They want you to bet live. Just remember
you're on a thirty to sixty second delay, depending on
where you're at. Yeah, on the on these live wagers. Now,
I'm not saying any site's cheat, but it's really easy
for them not to get what it's a gray area
for them. These are some people that run these departments.
They don't even realize it's cheating. They don't even think
it's cheating what they do because because they don't gamble.
They don't gamble, so they don't realize that they'll stop
certain bets and take certain bets. I am telling you
I've seen this happen in Vegas firsthand. My friend called
out the sports book got thrown out of the sports
book for this at Canter Gaming. When Canter was cheating
back in the beginning, Uh, Canter got they got fined.
I got fined the biggest fines ever levied against the
casino corporation, like almost forty million in fines. They got
run out of town on a rail. And that's the
reason why it's so hard to get the other sportsbooks
in town there. They don't want a Canter gaming happening
happening again. So over on wager talk that we have
a lot of things up here. You know, you get
you get top right to play tonight, which is up there.
We have my weekly, my monthly, pick my monthly packages.
You can also get a three month packages. Just email
in and we'll lock you up for a good a
good season price there. Everything going good and he really
good weeks here in college and pro. I'm really happy.
Speaker 2: I got to tell you there was a there was
one last night with the player Prop Live that they
pulled some bs on. So Tyrone Tracy, Tyrone, Tracy's having
a good game, starting off a ton of work, ton
of carries a lot of yards. He goes, I don't
know why he's playing with with a hurt shoulder away.
He goes flying into two defenders and hurts his shoulder,
lands out of bounds and immediately grabs his shoulder and
it doesn't look good. They took down the unders, they
left the overs up.
Speaker 1: How nice of them, you see what I mean?
Speaker 2: How nice of them.
Speaker 1: You know, these sports books they have a lot of
balls doing the things they do. Now, if you go
to gaming and say, hey, they're only booking one way
action or something, Gaming doesn't even know eleven to ten
is so they don't know. What are they gonna say?
They can't they can't police this. Basically, the sports books
can do what they want.
Speaker 2: Really is Oh man, it was. It was really funny.
So all right, great stuff and told everyone what you
have up, enjoy your time in Scranton. And some uh,
somebody said they'd like the clown uh, the clown things.
Speaker 1: And not only the clown you see the see the
clown on the wall playing poker, poker clown. I mean
he loves clowns. This guy loves clowns. He does. By
the way, that that that that guy right there, see
him up on the corner there. Yeah, that came the
famous pool player Steve Mizerak that died. Who's great. You
should do the light beer for Miller commercials, commercials, Steve
was a friend of ours, a friend of mine, and
my friend owns the house. That was instead that was
right in Steve's Then he got some here gambling gambling.
Look look at these guys. Look at these guys on
the wall. Look at these gambling gods. Look at these
gambling I mean, the whole house is based on gambling.
Everyone will love this.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: He's a walking talking gamblers anonymous poster.
Speaker 2: All right, that's funny. All right, thanks Bill and Joyce Scranton.
And we'll see again next Monday. Tell everyone said, Hi,
take it easy, Bill. Uh everyone see all that stuff.
All right, Let's bring in Steve Merrill and then we'll
do all around the world here at the end, Steve,
please tell me we can see Steve at least tell
me we can actually see Steve Merrill's face here. All right, Uh, Steve,
we're gonna oh, we may have lost all right, we
may have lost Dan here, hold on one second, we're
having technically come in. Okay, Okay, I was.
Speaker 5: Messing with you. I was making it the black hole
for you here, just like Bill's house.
Speaker 1: See there.
Speaker 2: Okay, well we're just all right here we go. So
Dan's Dan doesn't have internet or power. So I'm I'm
thrust into the producer and the host here, Steve. So
let's get started with Monday night football.
Speaker 5: So you're not talking to mess around. I just want
to get clear you're not of the move to mess around.
I can't give you any more buzzom shots. This isn't
this isn't going to help the.
Speaker 2: Cause, all right, So let's break down this game here, Steve.
This is a huge, huge one Lions Ravens. We got
a huge total. Money keeps coming in on the Ravens.
What's your take on this game?
Speaker 5: You know, Detroit looked bad in Week one against Green Bay,
and I always say don't overreact to week one, and
it's hard not to. We do it even as well
because it's the real deal, but it's really semi preseason still.
And then we saw Detroy look really good last week
and the Packers are a decent team. So question becomes,
what are the lines this year? You know, Baltimore looked
pretty good in Week one until they did in the
final four minutes. They blew the ninety nine percent chance
of winning straight up with four and a half minutes
to go and lost. And then they looked great last
week against Cleveland. Cleveland then beats the Packers out right.
So the six degrees of Kevin Bacon is becoming very confusing. Now,
I guess the Browns are better than the Ravens. I
don't know how it works. I did mention in my
fade the public video by the way, yesterday Andy, that
I thought that Packers were in a terrible spot and
nobody wanted to touch the Browns, And when it was
ten to nothing, somebody's like, terrible pick on the Browns, Steve,
and then of course they win the game outright. That
was what I needed. That's when you double up.
Speaker 2: If that's when you knew your bet was good, that's
when you knew your bet was good to go.
Speaker 5: That's what I might need to do, Andy, is when
I can eventually get on the end zone line show,
which might be the Sunday action. This might be the
one Sunday I can do it. We need to wait
for that reverse kiss of death that I'm sure all
of us get. That might be the best betting in
game strategy in history. Actually, and one dude one time
said all your plays lose it. It was like three point
twenty one PM. And half of it more than end
of when I felt it took all my power out
to be like, so your sportsbooks, lets you put in
exact results at three twenty one p Where do you
get that bet? And it had it had one one
view on Twitter. Sounds like it's not worth responding, but yeah,
it really is remarkable when everyone all of a sudden
jumps ship how things turn. So my point is, you know,
we'll find out more about the Lions tonight. I don't
like the fact they're outdoors. I do feel like they're
better on the fast track indoors, but hard to imagine
this won't be a high scoring game total as we
speak right now, I'm looking at the Odds logic screen.
It is lighting up. If some of the Sharper books
DraftKings just went to fifty four and a half, Pinnacles
juiced fifty three and a half to the over, so
is book book maker and bet online. So some sharp
action coming down the over right now. I'm sure the
public will be there as well. I've got a sneaky
player prop for you, how about Lamar Jackson rushing yards
over Andy. Lions play a lot of man demand coverage.
I think Jackson's going to be more mobile than he
was the first two weeks. He averages normally fifty sixty
rushing yards a game during his career. I think he's
like at forty one and a half right now. I
think he gets into the fifty sixty range tonight, and
hard not to like other offensive players on both of
these teams over so props over tonight. I know it
might sound square, but I think it's gonna work.
Speaker 2: All right, let's take a look at MLB. Not a
lot of games, but we got the Brewers and the Padres.
Really good pitching matchup here. Palta from Milwaukee, Paveta for
San Diego. How do you break this game down?
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, baseball is fading bout a week to
so so before the playoffs, and like you said, just
three games tonight, a very light card, and this is
probably the best of the three. You've got two teams
with solid playoff records this year. About two three weeks
ago they had odds on best record in baseball. The
Brewers were like minus eleven hundred and that was like
a month ago. That's how good they've been this season.
And they're now thirty four games above five hundred, Padres
fourteen games above five hundred, still playing pretty good baseball
as well. Both teams exactly six and four their last ten,
both hovering around five hundred their last twenty and their
last thirty. In fact, the Padres last thirty are just
fifteen and fifteen and the Brewers, despite being thirty four
games above five hundred, are just sixteen and fourteen their
last thirty. So I really think both teams kind of
an equal current form here. So let's look at the pitchers,
and both pitchers have excellent numbers this year. A Paveta
two point eight ERA one hundred and seventy six innings,
which is already thirty more innings that he pitched at
either twenty three or twenty four, and he did not
look good in his last start against the Mets on
September seventeenth, seven hits, three runs, allout in just four innings.
So maybe the little cautions with Nick Pavetta going forward,
and that could be bad news for the Padres maybe
as well. Freddy Peralta meanwhile two point seventy ERA this year,
and he's been even better over the last month and
a half. Since early August a one point four era.
He's pitched one hundred and sixty nine innings this year.
He went one seventy three last year, one sixty five
the year before. So all things equal, I trust Peralta
more tonight. Obviously it should be a low scoring game
based on numbers this season, but Paveta worries me. Let's
stay away from the total. Let's look at the Brewers
as a slight dog, the best team in baseball with
I think the better pitcher on the mound tonight at
plus one oh five. Hey, sign me up for the
Brewers is a live dog tonight in nine to forty Eastern.
Speaker 2: I like it, Steve, I like it. I got to
get your take on best favorite overreaction. We did overreactions earlier,
so we have Packers are overrated, Panthers are legit cult,
super Bowl futures look great. Carson Wentz is better than
JJ McCarthy. The Eagles are a passing team now, and
the NFL isn't calling false starts on the tush push.
We had to laugh at that because they called one,
but it was on the Saints, not the Eagles. Yesterday's
like the league just picking on there. What's your favorite overreaction.
Packers overrated, wentz cold.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the first one. But I was going to say,
when I was looking at the games this week, you
know I'm not big on McCarthy. I wasn't big of
the Bikings last week. We talked about that in the show.
I thought it was an upgrade having wins there, so
that did surprise. But yeah, the Packers that we have
to go there. We talked about that just a minute ago.
Everybody had them pencil in the Super Bowl. Nobody wanted Cleveland.
I sold everybody in that fade the public video, do
not Packers might win the game. I like the Browns.
We had a best bet on them. I thought they
had a chance to win outright. Obviously for taking a
single digit dog, we always think they could win outright.
But my big takeaway was do not use green Bay
and your survivor pools, and if they go down, you
maybe eliminate a lot of your competitors. And I'm not
going to overreact to that. It was a terrible spot
for green Bay, not only off the big divisional win
against Detroit, but also the Thursday night went against not
my Washington commanders, and now guess what this Sunday, they're
on the road for the Sunday night game at Dallas.
It was one of the biggest sandwich spots I've ever seen.
I'm sure Marco DiAngelo agreed. I know he loves those
sandwich spots, so that's a huge overreaction. I still think
Green Bay is a solid team, and I think Cleveland's
gonna be a little bit of a feisty defensive team
this year as well.
Speaker 2: Love it, Love it, Steve, It's Monday. What do you
have up for clients?
Speaker 5: So of course tomorrow is five dollar Tuesday? And Lang,
I know you, miss Abe, but I love doing the
Monday shows with you because what we do do Monday
is knock out a bunch of the weeknight videos and
check in later tonight yesday around midnight or so. They
go up, so it'll be up Tuesday when you wake
up and go to work. You can watch them all
day at work. It's kind of like March Madness that Monday,
no one gets things done. Well, I'm trying to make
sure no one gets things done on Tuesday because it's
five dollars Tuesday. You can buy multiple plays at wager
Talk and you can also get my Thursday night NFL
and college football videos. My Friday night videos are usually
posted then as well, and don't sleep on those NFL
Prime videos. Three and OHO Already this season we had
the Packers and under. Last week we had the Bills
team total over, never in doubt, and we also had
the Cowboys in Week one, so technically four and O
on Thursday nights. So the point is check out the
free videos here on wager Talk TV. All you have
to do is click subscribe and click that bill for
an instant alert. You will know when they are posted
along with the Faith the public video every week and
that I've been referencing twenty eight thousand views yesterday and
our producer Chris Allen says, that is a record. So
thank you everybody out there for watching clicking the thumbs
up like in commenting below, in both the live shows
and the videos, because Andy Lang and myself Steve Merril,
we do these videos when we do the shows, when
people watch. You know, we used toll Love to do
the NASCAR show, but we had like three hundred views.
It just wasn't worth the time. So keep it coming
in Zone live hitting like ten thousand viewers. That's gonna
be out here for a while. It's been taking on
a life of its own, and I do have some
strong best bets up on daily at my page Steve
merrelwager Talk dot com and a bonus free play. Get
the daily free play on my page and build your
bank roll Steve merrillwager Talk dot com, Get there, quicker
wt dot slash sm Steve Merrill.
Speaker 2: Everyone. Great job, and yeah, Steve puts in a ton
of work doing all those videos. So great work, Steve. Yeah,
those videos are fantastic. I watch every single one of them.
Speaker 1: So thanks Andy.
Speaker 2: All right, all right, let's do all around the world here, guys.
We're gonna give out some free plays here, and let's
see block wants to know, Andy, do you believe in
the Colts? Now? I'm getting there, I'm getting there. You know,
Titans aren't great. They should have lost against Broncos. They're
much better than I thought they were gonna be. So yeah,
do I believe I'm getting there? I'm getting there. Do
I take him as a legit threat in the AFC?
The afc' is just loaded, So it's gonna be hard,
you know, it's just gonna be It's gonna be tough
ro but yeah, the cults are a lot of fun
to watch. Easiest bet I made yesterday it was Daniel
Jones over two ten and a half passing In no
way we're gonna see that number again. So that was
a really really good one. So all right, all around
the world here, let's give out some free plays. We
got a couple of MLB. We got a prop four tonight,
so we're gonna go to Baseball Cardinals at the Giants.
Michael McGreevy over sixteen and a half outs. This guy's
been a horse man over in eight out of the
last nine games. The Giants are not scoring a lot
of runs. They've lost seven out of nine. I don't
think they have enough offense to chase McGreevy out of there.
Last time they played, the Giants really tore them up.
But I'll take McGreevy to go over his outs. Guy
normally goes six full innings proper. Tonight, David Montgomery over
nine and a half rush attempts. He has eleven in
both games this season. The Ravens have played in two games.
One was that crazy win against the Bills. Bills rushed
on him thirty one times. I think Detroit's gonna want
to try and slow this game down, keep Lamar off
the field, and David Montgomery's going to be their short
yardage guy when they getting close. So yeah, his role
is very much cemented in this offense. Eleven carries in
both games. I think this number should be ten and
a half, not nine and a half. And then Ralph
Michael Special Nationals at Braves were going no run first inning.
Nationals have only scored one first inning run in the
last twelve games. The Braves have only scored a first
inning run once in the last seven games, and Sale
hasn't allowed a first inning run in fourteen straight. That
is that is absolutely crazy. So take a look at
no run first inning Nationals and Braves. I have one
best bet that up for today, Monday Night Football special
looking to make it three and oh on Monday Night
Football plays this year. I just need one. It's up
for sale right now. It's by far the best prop
on the board as far as my opinion goes, So
looking to extend this streak to three and oh on
Monday Night Football. So one bet, that's all we have
up and that's all we need. You can get their
WT dot Buzz slash a al. All right, guys, thank
you so much for joining us. I know we've talked
about Dave Sherpin in the chat. He meant a lot
to the industry, he meant a lot to us. Our
hearts go out to his family and a lot of
people here at wager Talk were friends with him and
worked with him a lot over the years. So we
have we have a little video package here that we
want to share with everyone. It's just got some of
the people that work at wager Talk talking about him.
So rest in peace.
Speaker 4: Dave Sharer Bett in person.
Speaker 3: No trama, No trama, Watch Tuesday much Friday.
Speaker 4: What are you talking.
Speaker 2: About a week two? Get some info out of this man,
Bite me. Not just a pretty face, you know, with
a multi colored beer. There's and it's not just Flex
Tuesday for everybody that's that's I mean, that's exactly how
you should approach it.
Speaker 4: I got a purple suit with a vest I mean,
you can't make this stuff.
Speaker 2: It's is purple. This sound like a drama. This sound
like some drama on a Flex Tuesday.
Speaker 1: We're who comes to my house wearing the colors of
the enemy?
Speaker 2: Who does that? Dave Sherpan You know what, you're right, Chris.
You're absolutely right. You're right, all right.
Speaker 3: That's it, that's it.
Speaker 1: You're right.