1 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: And and hello, welcome to the Big Podcast. It is Thursday. 2 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,920 Today is the twenty third day of July, Year of 3 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,119 Our Lord, twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan. 4 00:00:38,759 --> 00:00:43,000 And another busy day, another busy super so I know 5 00:00:43,039 --> 00:00:47,280 we're in the heart of summer, and we've got the 6 00:00:47,359 --> 00:00:51,200 latest on Ron. We've got a Fox News poll which 7 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,399 I do want to go over with you. Saudis the 8 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,920 more information today about the Saudis and getting a nuke 9 00:00:58,159 --> 00:01:04,040 program and AOC. I know it's early. I know, don't 10 00:01:04,079 --> 00:01:06,840 don't yell at me. I know it's early that the 11 00:01:06,879 --> 00:01:09,879 twenty twenty eight polls about who is going to be 12 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:15,319 the nominee for the Democrats, AOC is in position number one. 13 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,319 You heard me right, AOC is the early leader. I know. 14 00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:22,120 It's all about the you know, Democrats, Socialists and all 15 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,879 that sort of stuff, and she is. This is the 16 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,480 New Hampshire Granite State pole. And I've heard some of 17 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,000 the pundits talk about the fact that the polling is 18 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:35,640 very left, but the general election in New Hampshire is 19 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:37,879 much more moderate. So there's a long way to go 20 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:39,680 on all we'll get into the numbers and all that 21 00:01:39,719 --> 00:01:42,040 sort of business. I do want to start though, with 22 00:01:42,159 --> 00:01:45,359 this Saudi nuke story, because there's much to it now. 23 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,560 The President has come out today and said that the 24 00:01:48,599 --> 00:01:53,400 Saudis must join the Abraham Accord in order to get 25 00:01:53,519 --> 00:01:57,200 the nuclear deal. That means that they have to recognize Israel, 26 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,799 and that has been a big hang up because the 27 00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:02,920 Audis truly believe that there should be a two state 28 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,000 solution in Israel, and Israel's going we don't want a 29 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,520 two state solution, so that still needs to be worked out. 30 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,560 But there's also another part to this, apparently the deal 31 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,680 is we already have an agreement with the United Arab 32 00:02:16,759 --> 00:02:20,759 Emirates where we supply them with enriched uranium for their 33 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,479 nuclear power, not for a bomb, low grade enrichment for 34 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,599 nuclear power in the United Arab Emirates, And what the 35 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,719 pundits are talking about is that the Saudis would have 36 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,120 to agree to where they're not going to be able 37 00:02:35,159 --> 00:02:37,919 to enrich the uranium. We will enrich it and we 38 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,360 will send it to them though it's a delivery service. 39 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,360 Here's Brett McGirk, who has worked on similar plans for 40 00:02:44,479 --> 00:02:45,639 other countries in the past. 41 00:02:45,719 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, we have an extensive negotiations an n I say 42 00:02:48,599 --> 00:02:51,039 the National Nuclear Security Agency, within the Department of Entergy 43 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,840 all are best experts to make sure that those non 44 00:02:53,879 --> 00:02:56,719 proliferation concerns were met. But I have to say this 45 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,360 was part of an overall package potentially for normalis of 46 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,879 relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of a 47 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,520 broader deal, which obviously got taken off the agenda after 48 00:03:06,599 --> 00:03:09,800 the attacks on October seventh of twenty twenty three. So, 49 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:11,919 as Beth said, I think we got to see the 50 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,719 details that will be submitted to Congress. If it is 51 00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:16,960 similar to what was done during the Biden administration, I 52 00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:19,280 expect it is, because I think a lot of that 53 00:03:19,319 --> 00:03:22,840 work was already done. It's fairly rigorous. There is the 54 00:03:22,879 --> 00:03:26,680 possibility down the road of a US and Richmond's facility 55 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,520 in Saudi Arabia. That was a very controversial piece. Part 56 00:03:29,599 --> 00:03:32,759 of that is because we still impoort fuel from russ 57 00:03:32,759 --> 00:03:35,400 Shows kind of looking for an alternative fuel source. But 58 00:03:35,479 --> 00:03:36,960 that's kind of down the road. There's going to be 59 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,759 a study about that. Obviously that will raise concerns and 60 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,719 scrutiny in Congress, as it should. So I think we'll 61 00:03:42,759 --> 00:03:44,719 learn more here over the coming weeks. 62 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,039 Speaker 1: And there's a lot more to learn about this deal, 63 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,240 because the problem with the problem with the timing of 64 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:55,199 this is we are battling Iran about nuclear about them 65 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:59,479 having nuclear in uranium that they can use to build 66 00:03:59,479 --> 00:04:03,199 a bomb. Meantime, right next door they're saying, hey, we 67 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,439 want one too, And that's the problem with them at least, 68 00:04:05,479 --> 00:04:08,439 is that everybody will want a nuclear bomb. I predict 69 00:04:08,479 --> 00:04:11,280 I don't know, ten year, twenty years, they'll all have them, 70 00:04:11,319 --> 00:04:14,240 and the question is will anybody use them? Beth Sander, 71 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:18,759 former National Security advisor. She also waited on the Saudis 72 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,399 getting nuclear energy. 73 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 3: I think, you know, I think it was an opportunity 74 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:25,920 that the President wanted to take to do a deal. 75 00:04:26,759 --> 00:04:30,439 And I think the question is is this deal so 76 00:04:30,639 --> 00:04:36,160 transactional that it's expediency over some other considerations. I mean, 77 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,800 we have to remember that Saudi Arabia denied the US 78 00:04:39,959 --> 00:04:45,560 military use of its airspace in order to escort commercial shipping, 79 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,920 which they benefit from in the Strait of Hormuz. And 80 00:04:50,439 --> 00:04:53,040 you know, when Spain does this, we get a whole 81 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:57,000 different reaction. When Saudi Arabia does this. We're anxious to 82 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:01,720 get this relationship back on track. And we've given up 83 00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:04,519 a few things that I'm worried about in terms of 84 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,720 non proliferation, in terms of i a e. A Nuclear 85 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:13,120 inspection access that are that are rather unprecedented. We still 86 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,079 don't know exactly what the deal says. It's two secret annexes, 87 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:18,959 but you know, Congress will have to consider this, and 88 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,519 there many steps ahead. So I don't want to be 89 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,839 too alarmist. But it doesn't seem consistent. 90 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,439 Speaker 1: I can see that. I mean, the President loves NBS. 91 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,279 I mean he just likes he loves all the goal, 92 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,639 he loves the wealth, likes all that stuff. Spain not 93 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,560 the same, so I get how the President's enamored with him. 94 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,000 So since we're talking about the Middle East, let's talk 95 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:43,839 about Iran. This is still where we're pounding away on Iran. 96 00:05:43,959 --> 00:05:47,720 There is no change. There is a couple of experts 97 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,319 away in Kareem said Jappor is always an interesting guy 98 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:52,639 from the Carnegie Institute. 99 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 4: So President's words over the last five months have been 100 00:05:55,639 --> 00:06:01,680 incredibly inconsistent, erratic, contradictory, and the challenges that do the 101 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,800 Iranians take his words seriously? Do our partners and the 102 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,600 Middle East take his words seriously? The challenge is that 103 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,639 Iran has been preparing for war with the United States 104 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,519 for forty seven years. They are one hundred percent focused 105 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,720 on this war. Whole of government is focused. That isn't 106 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,319 the case with the Trump administration. As you alluded to 107 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:27,120 from the outset. He called this just a little excursion. 108 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,560 He's not even calling it a war, And on various 109 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:34,079 days he'll say either that Iran is desperate for a deal, 110 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,199 a deal is imminent, or we're going to escalate. And 111 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:41,560 so I don't believe that the Iranians are taking the 112 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:46,879 president's words seriously to significantly escalate, and that could lead 113 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:48,079 to a real miscalculation. 114 00:06:48,519 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: Well, Kareem is a smart guy and understands what's going 115 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,240 on in Tehran, and we don't trust them, and yes, 116 00:06:55,439 --> 00:06:58,519 rather than Trump says one thing one day and something 117 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,759 different than next. So the question is do they trust us? 118 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:05,160 Do they trust President Trump's words? And Kareem saying they 119 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:09,160 probably don't. Here's the president last night, Maryetta Georgia, once 120 00:07:09,199 --> 00:07:13,360 again referring to this not as a war. He seems 121 00:07:13,399 --> 00:07:16,480 to treat it lightly, and he called it just a skirmish. 122 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:16,839 Speaker 5: Again. 123 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:17,959 Speaker 6: Why is winning in. 124 00:07:17,959 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 7: The Islamic Republic of Iran, and we're ensuring that they 125 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,040 will never ever be able to do to us what 126 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,600 they've done to so many. This is with this skirmish 127 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,040 we have with the Islamic Republic of Iran. And I 128 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,800 call it that because, let me tell you, they're getting 129 00:07:36,839 --> 00:07:39,519 hit so hard and they want to make a deal. 130 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I don't. He says that all 131 00:07:42,839 --> 00:07:44,959 the time they're begging for a deal, they want to 132 00:07:44,959 --> 00:07:49,040 make a deal. We're hitting there. We've completely annihilated their 133 00:07:49,439 --> 00:07:53,439 nuclear program, and guess what, it's just not believable. I 134 00:07:53,519 --> 00:07:56,319 know he likes to sound like that, talk tough and 135 00:07:56,399 --> 00:07:58,680 all that, but no, I don't think they want to 136 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:04,079 make a deal. Meantime, Robert Greenway is a national security guy. 137 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:05,680 Let's see what he has to say. 138 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 8: I think two things. The Iranians have proven once again 139 00:08:08,079 --> 00:08:10,519 they can't be trusted to pursue a diplomatic approach. They 140 00:08:10,519 --> 00:08:13,759 can't abbide by any agreement. And so having closed that, 141 00:08:13,759 --> 00:08:18,279 the President is compelled to resume military operations and escalate 142 00:08:18,439 --> 00:08:21,319 not only to restrict the capacity to disrupt shipping in 143 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,040 the straits of war moves, but also the ballistic missile 144 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,519 capacity that struck our troops in Muafa Calsati in Jordan 145 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,560 over the weekend, and in the end, I think what 146 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,639 we can be encouraged by is that Iran has very 147 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,320 little capacity and capability left and if they escalate, the 148 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,279 United States has rungs in the Ladder which are completely 149 00:08:38,279 --> 00:08:41,279 beyond the reach of Iran and their surrogates in Yemen, 150 00:08:41,399 --> 00:08:44,440 ance a La or the hoo Thies, which you recall 151 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,600 we're striking up to a dozen vessels a day at 152 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:51,159 one time until the United States launched a sustained campaign 153 00:08:51,159 --> 00:08:53,240 to reduce their capability, which could be in the offing 154 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:53,759 as well. 155 00:08:53,879 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: However, there is a new yes as news side the 156 00:08:57,039 --> 00:09:00,200 who these have gotten involved In the last twenty four 157 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,679 hours since we met. They have fired on two ships 158 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:06,440 in the Red Sea and seven vessels that were going 159 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,320 to go to the Red Sea turned around. So they 160 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,320 are having an impact and it's reducing the quantity of 161 00:09:13,399 --> 00:09:16,000 oil coming out of the Middle East. So what's the 162 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,159 deal with the Hoosies. Are we going to be able 163 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,679 to attack them? We bombed them in the past. What 164 00:09:22,799 --> 00:09:24,879 was the end what was the end result of that? 165 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,840 Here's Colonel Pete Mansu. 166 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 5: Well, it could look a lot like what it looked 167 00:09:29,759 --> 00:09:32,120 like a few years ago when we bombed the Houties 168 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:37,360 and to no effect. Quite frankly, they ended up on 169 00:09:37,399 --> 00:09:42,919 the upper end of that exchange. I think instead we 170 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,039 would bomb Iran and hold Iran responsible for the actions 171 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:52,279 of the Hooties. And you know what we do to Iran, 172 00:09:52,759 --> 00:09:54,559 I'm not sure we can do much more than the 173 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:59,120 thirteen thousand strikes we've already inflicted on that nation. And 174 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,519 so this is a real issue for the Trump administration 175 00:10:02,639 --> 00:10:05,840 the world economy as a whole. The Saudi oil, by 176 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:09,279 the way, can still be shipped to the Red Sea 177 00:10:09,279 --> 00:10:11,399 and then go north through the Suez Canal. It just 178 00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:14,720 takes a lot longer to get to Asia, its final destination. 179 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 1: And by going that direction, by going north from the 180 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,320 Red Sea out through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, 181 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,840 go all the way around to get to Asia, we'll 182 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,759 add tremendous delay and tremendous costs to the oil markets, 183 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,799 primarily affecting Asia. But remember oil is priced globally, all right, 184 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:33,960 so we'll keep an eye on all of that. But again, 185 00:10:34,039 --> 00:10:36,759 the Hoho thisa added a new element to this. The 186 00:10:36,799 --> 00:10:39,559 Fox News poll is out and well, let me go 187 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,080 through some of the items with you. Overall, voters are unhappy. 188 00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:47,320 They are really unhappy, and they're mad at Democrats and Republicans, 189 00:10:47,519 --> 00:10:51,679 but they want major change when they're unhappy. They may 190 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,240 not like the Democrats, but they want to change from 191 00:10:54,279 --> 00:10:56,639 the Republicans. It's pretty clear from this pole. I know 192 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,360 we're still a few months out, but this is people 193 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,000 have been angry for quite a few years, way before 194 00:11:02,039 --> 00:11:04,639 Donald Trump came along, and they're unhappy with the fact 195 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,639 that they're not doing so well economically, and that is 196 00:11:07,759 --> 00:11:10,919 why it will tie all this together. You wonder why 197 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,639 the Democrat socialists of America are doing so well. It's 198 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,639 not that people love socialism. They're just looking at well, 199 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,080 we've tried capitalism that hasn't worked for a lot of people, 200 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,559 and so they're willing to try a big change. When 201 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,559 we look at the poll, President's job approval remains near 202 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:33,399 record low. More Democrats are motivated to vote. Republicans join 203 00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:38,679 Democrats and independents in rating the economy negative, and four 204 00:11:38,879 --> 00:11:43,919 in ten voters want dramatic or revolutionary change. And there 205 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,600 is where you get the word socialism. Voters say that 206 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:52,799 Democrats can handle the income, inequality better that Democrats can 207 00:11:52,879 --> 00:11:57,080 handle healthcare better, they can handle inflation, the economy, and 208 00:11:57,279 --> 00:12:01,919 foreign policy better. Republicans hold the advantage on crime, while 209 00:12:02,039 --> 00:12:06,919 government spending and national security are evenly divided between the 210 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,759 d's and the rs. On immigration, the GOP had an 211 00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:14,799 eight point edge in April. Now Democrats have a one 212 00:12:14,879 --> 00:12:18,519 point edge when it comes yes to immigration. That was 213 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,879 something that President Trump owned, not anymore. Nope. They have 214 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,039 a bunch of categories in this poll, and they ask 215 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:27,840 people again which party you think will do a better job. 216 00:12:28,159 --> 00:12:31,919 There is one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, 217 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:37,799 nine categories. Seven of the nine Democrats far much better, fair, 218 00:12:37,879 --> 00:12:41,399 much better than the Republicans. The only two that Republicans 219 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,919 do better than Democrats national security and crime. That is it. 220 00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:49,840 As far as are you extremely motivated to vote Democrats, 221 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:54,639 sixty eight percent say they're extremely motivated, fifty seven percent 222 00:12:54,759 --> 00:12:58,720 of Republicans, Independents only forty one percent. Big drop off 223 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,559 when it comes to us. As far as the House 224 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,879 to the two thousand and six House voat preference, Democrats 225 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,480 way ahead in that category. Fifty three percent say I 226 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,519 want a Democrat, Forty six percent say I want a Republican. 227 00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:16,440 That still comes down to exactly who the candidate is. 228 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,600 Views on the economy not good. The excellent or good 229 00:13:20,639 --> 00:13:24,960 category has gone down. In fact, it's down basically back 230 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,240 into kind of Biden type era of what's going on. 231 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,840 One third say inflation has caused serious hardships. That's up 232 00:13:31,879 --> 00:13:35,440 eight points from a year ago. A serious hardship. Forty 233 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:38,360 percent say it's it's not a Yes, it's a hardship, 234 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,159 but not a serious hardship. So forty percent say it's 235 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,440 a hardship. Thirty four percent say it's a serious hardship. 236 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,559 Last time I did my math, that's seventy four percent 237 00:13:47,639 --> 00:13:50,919 of people are not happy about the inflation that we 238 00:13:51,039 --> 00:13:54,840 are dealing with right now. If Congress is doing worse 239 00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:59,480 than even the president. Disapproval of Congressional Republicans and disapproval 240 00:13:59,519 --> 00:14:03,480 of Congresstional Democrats just about tide. Absolutely just about tide. 241 00:14:03,519 --> 00:14:06,639 But it's about seventy percent of people say they don't 242 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:10,039 like what the Republicans or the Democrats, either one of 243 00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:13,720 them are doing. Brett ju always weighs in on these 244 00:14:13,759 --> 00:14:14,720 political polls. 245 00:14:14,799 --> 00:14:17,639 Speaker 9: The truth is, there's not much good news for Republicans 246 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,000 in this whole poll. We did, you know underwater on 247 00:14:21,159 --> 00:14:25,159 the economy, as you showed underwater on affordability. Those two 248 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,399 issues are the front and center. For sure, Republicans have 249 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,879 a little bit of a lead on national security and 250 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,840 I guess law enforcement. But everywhere you look Republicans are down. 251 00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:37,000 Now there is one there is a bit of good news, 252 00:14:37,039 --> 00:14:39,679 as you mentioned, the redistricting will help them with seats 253 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,679 in the House, and they will probably need every one 254 00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:44,960 of them they can get from that. And the other 255 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,679 thing is, of course, on a question of intensity of 256 00:14:47,799 --> 00:14:51,600 voters sentiment, it appears that Republicans are down, but if 257 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,519 you add to people who were very likely that those 258 00:14:53,559 --> 00:14:56,720 are extremely likely to vote, the difference for Democrats is 259 00:14:56,799 --> 00:14:59,720 very slight. So Republicans can take some faith in some 260 00:14:59,759 --> 00:15:02,559 hope for that. But you know, with the unpopular incumbent 261 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,960 in this particular presidency in its first midterm, the wave 262 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,600 of history is pretty strong, and the party in power 263 00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:12,840 in the White House has historically, with very few exceptions, 264 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,840 done very poorly in the midterm like this one. 265 00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: This is shaping up. What I see is shaping up 266 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,480 is remember the last midterms four years ago. That was 267 00:15:22,559 --> 00:15:24,720 when we were supposed to have the big red wave. 268 00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:27,639 Everybody was mad. All the Republicans were mad about Joe Biden. 269 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,000 The big Red wave never happened. It was a red 270 00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:35,120 trickle were there were some red The Republicans won, but barely. 271 00:15:35,559 --> 00:15:38,000 Democrats gained a lot of each as well. I think 272 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,879 it's the opposite this time. Everybody's talking about, Oh, the 273 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,559 Republicans are in trouble. The Democrats are going to be 274 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,279 absolutely annihilating them. There's going to be, in other words, 275 00:15:47,279 --> 00:15:49,519 a big blue wave, and I think it's going to 276 00:15:49,559 --> 00:15:51,879 turn out very much like the red wave that didn't 277 00:15:51,919 --> 00:15:54,360 really turn out. I think this blue wave is going 278 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,600 to be, if anything, a trickle. People are unhappy about 279 00:15:57,679 --> 00:16:03,000 politicians because the economy always number one pocketbook issues. Is 280 00:16:03,039 --> 00:16:05,600 a lot of people that are not doing well in 281 00:16:05,639 --> 00:16:08,000 this economy. And then you throw on top of that 282 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,679 the tariff. The President has done it again. He's going 283 00:16:11,759 --> 00:16:14,759 out and adding tariffs all over the place. There is 284 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,840 a temporary tariff program that he jumped on after the 285 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,679 Supreme Court told him that his TERRORF program was not doable, 286 00:16:22,799 --> 00:16:26,799 and that temporary TERRORF program expires this Friday. So far, 287 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,240 the President has tried three different ways to impose tariffs. 288 00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:32,919 He is obsessed with tariffs, and I've told you a 289 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,879 thousand times, you pay the tariff, not some foreign company, 290 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,720 not some foreign country. So the first round was his 291 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:44,480 Liberation Day tariffs he imposed around the world with some 292 00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:49,080 wildly unfigured Nobody can figure out what the formula was 293 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,840 that they used on that. Anyway, Supreme Court said that 294 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,679 the Emergency Economic Powers Act, now you can't use that. 295 00:16:55,919 --> 00:16:59,240 So round two he said, all right, then I'll impose 296 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:03,960 a ten percent universal baseline tariff under the authority provided 297 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,720 to him by the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four. 298 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,319 But he gives presidents temporary powers, and those temporary powers 299 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,920 expire July twenty fourth, which means he's now pivoting to 300 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:20,079 his third attempt to rebuild his tariffs. And he's got 301 00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:25,000 proposing tariffs on up to sixty countries covering about ninety 302 00:17:25,079 --> 00:17:28,839 nine percent of US trade under a Section three oh 303 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:33,559 one rule that he has that is supposedly in being 304 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:39,440 used against countries that have forced labor, and that's what 305 00:17:39,519 --> 00:17:44,680 he's trying now. Jeffrey Sonefeld, who is a Yale professor 306 00:17:44,839 --> 00:17:50,240 professor of Management, was talking about his tariff obsession earlier today, No, 307 00:17:50,519 --> 00:17:50,839 or the. 308 00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:54,599 Speaker 10: Business community, where seventy eighty percent of them told us 309 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,240 in survey after survey and in person as you've been 310 00:17:57,279 --> 00:18:00,640 in some of these forums with the CEO, that this 311 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,960 is terrible and overwhelmingly they say that the American public 312 00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:07,960 is paying for it. It's not our foreign adversaries or competitors, 313 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,640 trading partners that's paying for it. They say, American taxpayers, 314 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,079 American companies. But CEO say they don't like it. 315 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 11: So why now? 316 00:18:13,839 --> 00:18:14,319 Speaker 2: Why now? 317 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question. Is because everything else is 318 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,839 failing on him. He gets booted off the stage at 319 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,039 the arena of course, at the World Cup, and that 320 00:18:24,519 --> 00:18:26,920 the head of FAITHA has to go kind of guide 321 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,240 him off the stage. He has tries to co opt 322 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,079 the Fourth of July celebrations, rebranding everything around himself. Why 323 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,039 this because this is one of his old chestnuts. He 324 00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:40,640 goes after universities, goes after law firms, He goes after 325 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,119 places where he pulls a lever where he can find 326 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,920 that there's some disagreement. This one, he sees that there's 327 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,759 a national rallying cry. He's wrong, but he thinks that 328 00:18:48,799 --> 00:18:51,799 people will unify against that. They're eating our lunch, and 329 00:18:51,839 --> 00:18:54,400 that this is something where he thinks he has doesn't 330 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,119 have to go through Congress. Now, the Supreme Court remember 331 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,720 something called i EPO, which is the international you know, 332 00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:07,319 economic a justification for giving the president an override for 333 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,640 emergency powers on economic front that the Supreme Court just 334 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,200 said is illegal. That's going after the penguins. 335 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: No this I mean. Jeff Snndefeld is a highly regarded 336 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,839 business professor, managed the head of the Management Professorship at 337 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,319 Yale University, and he just shakes his head on some 338 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,359 of the things that the President is doing. As far 339 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,400 as the economy goes. We got our Thursday morning jobs 340 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,680 report number out this morning, first time jobless claims one 341 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:38,440 hundred and eighty seven thousand below two hundred thousand. For 342 00:19:38,519 --> 00:19:41,480 that's the first time in a long time. Continuing claims 343 00:19:41,559 --> 00:19:44,240 also below one point eight million, they've been above that 344 00:19:44,319 --> 00:19:46,920 for a long time. One point seven nine to six 345 00:19:47,039 --> 00:19:50,640 million bond yields. The bond market is doing the job 346 00:19:50,839 --> 00:19:53,960 of the Fed. The Fed may well everybody's kind of 347 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:55,920 looking at. They're probably going to raise rates at their 348 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,480 September meeting, which isn't that far away, but they may 349 00:19:59,519 --> 00:20:04,039 not have if the bond market is doing the Fed's 350 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,359 work for them. Bond interest rates on thirty year treasuries 351 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,960 now above five five point one nine percent for ten 352 00:20:12,039 --> 00:20:15,240 year treasuries, this is where a lot of mortgages are priced. 353 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,359 Four point seven percent interest rate on the ten year 354 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,400 treasury these are rates we haven't seen for a while. 355 00:20:21,559 --> 00:20:24,640 So the bond market is raising interest rates. They're doing 356 00:20:24,839 --> 00:20:28,400 all the hard work that the FED would normally be doing. Meantime, 357 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,440 over in Europe today, the European Central Bank left their 358 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,960 interest rates unchanged. So the economy, interest rates are going up, 359 00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:41,400 Labor markets strong, the no problems there, but inflation is 360 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,839 still there. What everybody's looking at is inflation is creeping 361 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,599 higher and higher, and so the FED probably going to 362 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:49,599 raise rates, but the bond market's doing a lot of 363 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,480 the work for them. Meantime, the Hoothies are getting involved 364 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,319 with the Red Sea ron You're gonna have to do again. 365 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,640 You're going to have to do more than just bomb 366 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,559 them for that. Otherwise you're just going to keep going 367 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,359 and going and going. There is a think about democrat 368 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,359 socialist just starting to get people's minds crazy. I told 369 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,000 you at the beginning of this that the AOC has 370 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,960 turned out at the Granite State Pole, which is New Hampshire. 371 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,160 AOC is number one on the list. I know it's 372 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,839 this twenty twenty eight Democrat nominee for president, so I 373 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,599 know we're offully early on that. But right now, let 374 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,359 me go through this with you. She's got twenty two 375 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,720 percent twenty twenty eight Democrat presidential poll, AOC twenty two percent, 376 00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:34,680 Pete booda judge, twenty one percent. They're the only two 377 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,000 that have any numbers. The rest of them are in 378 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,839 single digits. Senator Kelly eight percent, Gavin Newsom eight percent, 379 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,359 Bernie Sanders six percent, Kamala Harris five percent. So that's 380 00:21:46,519 --> 00:21:49,519 I know we're early, but Kamala Harris is at the 381 00:21:49,559 --> 00:21:52,759 bottom of the wrung and AOC is at the top 382 00:21:52,799 --> 00:21:55,640 of the rung. This is AOC asked about it today. 383 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,480 She's I've noticed something. She's pretty good at giving talks 384 00:21:59,559 --> 00:22:02,319 when she's got a teleprompter or she's got notes, but 385 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,720 if she has to add lib she's kind of in 386 00:22:04,799 --> 00:22:08,039 the Kamala Harris word salient category. Listen to her. 387 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,839 Speaker 11: I think when I make decisions about my life, it's 388 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:17,880 they aren't just rooted in polls. They're rooted in what 389 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:22,200 people need, what is best for the country, and what 390 00:22:22,279 --> 00:22:26,200 is appropriate for the moment. And I think that right now, 391 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,759 the most important thing before the country right now is 392 00:22:29,799 --> 00:22:31,799 for Democrats to win the midterm elections. 393 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 1: Let me get back to that Fox News bowl. They 394 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:39,279 asked a favorable opinion of the Democratic Socialist of America. 395 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,319 Fifty nine percent of Democrats found the Democratic Socialists of 396 00:22:43,319 --> 00:22:47,519 America favorable. Six percent of Republicans found them favorable. Then 397 00:22:47,519 --> 00:22:50,079 they said, what do you think about socialism? Fifty two 398 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:54,359 percent of Democrats said, yeah, that's that, I'm in favor 399 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,480 of socialism. Eleven percent of Republican How about capitalism? What 400 00:22:58,519 --> 00:23:02,759 do you think about capitalism? Forty one percent of Democrats 401 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,839 less than half have a favorable opinion of capitalism. Sixty 402 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:11,319 one percent of Republicans have a favorable I looked at 403 00:23:11,319 --> 00:23:14,119 that and that that seems low to me for Republicans. 404 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,319 But again, there's a lot of people that are looking 405 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,119 at their pocketbooks and they're not getting where they need 406 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,720 to get financially and or want to get, and they're going, well, 407 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,599 maybe we should try something else. That is what is 408 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,559 going on. One more sound clip from AOC. 409 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 11: I feel very you know, humbles by the support of 410 00:23:36,279 --> 00:23:41,000 everyday people. I think that, you know, polls go up, 411 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,319 poles go down. That's kind of part of how all 412 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:44,880 of this works. 413 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 9: What do you think gars are going up? 414 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 6: Right now? 415 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 11: You'd have to ask folks in New Hampshire. 416 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: She's just not polished when it comes to off the cuff, 417 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,880 you know, comments about you know what I mean when 418 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,279 I'm talking about you know that kind of thing. It's 419 00:24:00,279 --> 00:24:02,599 that kind of kind of language, and then giggling. So 420 00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:06,119 she's good when she's reading notes, when she's reading off 421 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,960 a teleprompter, but asking her questions like that, it's she's 422 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,160 got some polishing to do. Let me put it that way. 423 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,279 Bernie Sanders weighs in as well about the Democrat Socialists 424 00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:17,880 of America doing so well. 425 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,839 Speaker 12: I let me tell you, the American people are disgusted 426 00:24:22,319 --> 00:24:25,680 with a economic system and with one guy on top. 427 00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:28,799 The richest people in America are getting rich, richell the 428 00:24:30,279 --> 00:24:33,480 political system, and they want change. But why aren't they? 429 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,079 Speaker 8: Why do you think Americans are flocking to these candidates? 430 00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:39,160 I mean, are they a liability for November? 431 00:24:39,319 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: No? 432 00:24:39,519 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 12: I think if you have candidates with standing off for 433 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:46,839 the working class and explaining that there's something wrong when 434 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,720 the billionaire classes getting richer and richer while so many 435 00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:52,920 Americans can't afford groceries. That's not the kind of economy 436 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,000 the American people want. 437 00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:56,319 Speaker 1: I get what he says. But he used to talk 438 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,200 about the millionaires, the millionaires and billionaires, and now he's 439 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,920 dropped the millionaires because he is a multimillionaire and we 440 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,559 told you he has three beautiful homes. And he talks 441 00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:07,319 about the rich being at the top, and I think, 442 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,880 you know, he's not at the top. He's not Elon 443 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,960 Musk wealthy, but he's a wealthy guy. And yet he's 444 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,680 got a message about how the economy is so unfair. 445 00:25:16,759 --> 00:25:20,039 If people would just study what socialism does, it really 446 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,920 does fail over and over and over again. Joe Nosura, 447 00:25:24,079 --> 00:25:28,160 he's with the Free Press. This guy has been around 448 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,319 the block on when it comes to the economy. He 449 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,039 does financial for the Free Press. I play some of 450 00:25:33,039 --> 00:25:34,920 his comments as well about this topic. 451 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:36,759 Speaker 9: Well, Proug, not. 452 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 13: Betting on the economy is not my strongest suit, but you. 453 00:25:44,039 --> 00:25:45,279 Speaker 14: Know, I'm with Andrew. 454 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 6: I worry a lot about a bubble and what that 455 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,640 would mean when you think back to two thousand and 456 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,640 eight and how damaging that was and how devastating that was. 457 00:25:57,079 --> 00:26:00,960 I do think that, you know, we're in this situation 458 00:26:01,079 --> 00:26:07,319 where people just are not making enough money to feed 459 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,359 their families, have by a house, do all the things 460 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,400 that they expect to be able to do, and if 461 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,519 you put take it a little away from the economy, 462 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,240 you think about it in political terms. This explains a lot. 463 00:26:20,559 --> 00:26:24,519 Speaker 14: About the rise of the Democratic Socialists, about Mom Donny, 464 00:26:24,599 --> 00:26:29,960 about all the other progressive candidates who are succeeding because 465 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:34,279 people are just really upset with what they view as 466 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,160 the failure of the long term failure of capitalism to 467 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:39,680 give them the kind of life. 468 00:26:39,519 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 6: That they have always always expected. 469 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,039 Speaker 14: I don't know where the economy is going to be 470 00:26:45,039 --> 00:26:48,559 in a year from now, but I seriously doubt it's 471 00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:50,200 going to be a lot better than it is now. 472 00:26:50,839 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: Well, Joe knows why people are upset, but is he 473 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,480 pro capitalist, pro socialist? What's it all about? And he 474 00:26:58,559 --> 00:27:01,559 says he believes is the best system. 475 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,039 Speaker 13: Well, first of all, it is the best economic system 476 00:27:04,079 --> 00:27:10,119 for growth. There's no question that millions, if not billions, 477 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,200 of people have been brought out of poverty look at 478 00:27:13,279 --> 00:27:17,160 China or India because of capitalism, and look what capitalism 479 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,480 has done done for this country over this course of 480 00:27:20,519 --> 00:27:25,079 its over the course of its history. The gap, the 481 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:29,519 growing gap between rich and poor has corroded people's belief 482 00:27:29,559 --> 00:27:34,440 in capitalism. The sort of lack of loyalty between corporation 483 00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:38,680 and worker has corroded capitalism. But also, I mean, with 484 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:43,799 this president in particular, the grift after grift after grift, 485 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,920 just it's kind of astonishing. And you know, we've talked 486 00:27:49,279 --> 00:27:51,920 on your show a lot about this, but you know, 487 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,200 I just want to bring up the latest one which 488 00:27:54,279 --> 00:27:59,000 is blew my mind, which is that Trump's social media 489 00:27:59,039 --> 00:28:02,960 company is now saying that they will give Wall Street 490 00:28:03,079 --> 00:28:08,240 Firms a sneak peek at his tweets in advance of 491 00:28:08,279 --> 00:28:11,799 everybody else if they pay him a certain amount of money. 492 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,240 It's just you just can't believe somebody would actually do this. 493 00:28:16,319 --> 00:28:18,640 How does that give anybody faith in the system. 494 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,680 Speaker 1: That's true. True Social says that the president owns forty 495 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,599 one percent of that they will sell to Wall Street. 496 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,400 It's Donald Trump's comment. He's the president, he can move markets, 497 00:28:29,519 --> 00:28:32,480 he does move markets, so he will not he will 498 00:28:32,519 --> 00:28:35,319 give a sneak peak to Wall Street firms who pay 499 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,359 him money to see to get I don't know how 500 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,680 much a minute advance notice, five minutes an hour, I'm 501 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,920 not sure, but that's what he's offering. And yeah, there's 502 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,480 a lot of headshaking going on with the grit that's 503 00:28:46,519 --> 00:28:50,119 going on as well. Don't get me started the coins. 504 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,599 All right, speaking of Wall Street, let's take a look 505 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,920 at how Wall Street did today, and to put it bluntly, 506 00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,640 it was pretty ugly. Now, well, we're ramping up more 507 00:29:00,759 --> 00:29:03,920 problems with the war. We've got the Red Sea now 508 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,200 in the hoothies, and that's another crimp on oil plus 509 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,279 the Iran war. So the Dow went down five hundred 510 00:29:10,359 --> 00:29:13,240 and six and now at fifty one thousand and seven 511 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:18,200 to eleven, SMP down ninety, Nasdaq down five hundred and 512 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,920 fifty three. That's a two percent drop, better than a 513 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,799 two percent drop. Gold went down one hundred dollars to 514 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:28,200 four thousand and fifty one, and Oil West Texas Intermediate, well, 515 00:29:28,359 --> 00:29:31,920 it closed up up six dollars to ninety two dollars. 516 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,279 For the first time. Brett north Sea crewed was one 517 00:29:35,359 --> 00:29:38,880 hundred dollars a barrel today, So we're seeing oil prices 518 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,279 going back up. Look for that at a gas station 519 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,759 near you. So that's it for today. Thank you for 520 00:29:43,759 --> 00:29:46,720 coming by. We will be back tomorrow. I hope to 521 00:29:46,759 --> 00:29:47,279 see you then