Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily polls from
Speaker 1: May fourteenth, twenty twenty six. Bitcoin ETFs just had their
Speaker 1: worst single day of outflows since January, and the story
Speaker 1: behind that number is more uncomfortable than the number itself.
Speaker 1: Let's get into it, but first a quick word from
Speaker 1: our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. Six hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty million dollars left bitcoin ETFs in a single session.
Speaker 1: That's the largest single day exit since January. Fear and
Speaker 1: greed dropped to thirty four that's fear territory. But here's
Speaker 1: the part that actually matters. Our interpretation of on chain
Speaker 1: data from crypto quont suggests the rally passed eighty thousand
Speaker 1: dollars had almost no US spot demand behind it. The
Speaker 1: buying looked like derivatives positioning and non US buyers, not
Speaker 1: the institutional accumulation story everyone was telling themselves. When a
Speaker 1: rally is built on borrowed conviction rather than real demand,
Speaker 1: the treat can be sharper than the move up, and
Speaker 1: that's exactly what we're watching play out right now. So
Speaker 1: where does that leave the rest of the market? Pretty soft?
Speaker 1: Across the board, Bitcoin is sitting just under eighty thousand,
Speaker 1: basically flat on the day, but the context around that
Speaker 1: number is what matters. Ethereum and Salona are both down
Speaker 1: a few percent, nothing dramatic in terms of price moves,
Speaker 1: but the mood has shifted. Total market cap is around
Speaker 1: two point seventy five trillion, barely changed. Bitcoin dominance is
Speaker 1: nudging up slightly, which usually means capital is retreating toward
Speaker 1: the perceived safety of bitcoin while all coins get left behind.
Speaker 1: DeFi total value locked is down a bit two, sitting
Speaker 1: around one hundred and sixty three billion, and stable coin
Speaker 1: supply is essentially flat, which tells you people aren't rushing
Speaker 1: to redeploy cash. They're sitting on it. The market isn't crashing,
Speaker 1: but it's not healthy either. So what's actually driving all this?
Speaker 1: The dominant narrative right now is the ETF outflow story,
Speaker 1: and it's bleeding into everything. The Bitcoin ETF bleed is
Speaker 1: the loudest signal of the day, and it's pulling sentiment
Speaker 1: down across the board. Right behind it is the macro overlay.
Speaker 1: Kevin Walsh just got confirmed as the next FED chair
Speaker 1: in the closest Senate vote in modern history. He's seen
Speaker 1: as more hawkish than his predecessor, which means rate cuts
Speaker 1: could come later and fewer than markets are hoping for.
Speaker 1: Crypto trades as a risk asset. A FED that holds
Speaker 1: rates higher for longer is a quiet headwind. And then
Speaker 1: there's the layer two total value locked story. Mega f
Speaker 1: down forty percent in a week, Unichain down fifteen percent,
Speaker 1: Corn down sixteen percent. Capital isn't rotating into winners right now,
Speaker 1: it's just leaving. That sets up today's alpha spotlight nicely
Speaker 1: because there's one corner of the market that's actually holding up.
Speaker 1: So while crypto is broadly soft, the Magnificent seven, the
Speaker 1: tokenized basket tracking those big US tech names, is actually
Speaker 1: up about two percent over the last seven days. That's
Speaker 1: not nothing when everything else is pulling back. It's trading
Speaker 1: near fifty four cents and the structure is still leaning higher.
Speaker 1: Momentum is mixed, so this isn't a straight line continuation story,
Speaker 1: but the fact that it's holding up while cryptocinamon hits
Speaker 1: fear territory is worth noting. When risk off hits crypto,
Speaker 1: sometimes macro equity exposure holds better. That's the setup worth
Speaker 1: watching here. This is the tip of the iceberg. The
Speaker 1: full macro regime read is in the monthly playbook. You
Speaker 1: can get a seven day free trial to all our
Speaker 1: research at tokenmetrics dot com. And there's one alert worth
Speaker 1: flagging before we get into today's stories. Our poly market
Speaker 1: signal on ethereum. The fifteen minute up or down call
Speaker 1: from May twelfth just resolved. We called up and it one.
Speaker 1: That call resolved in our favor for one hundred and
Speaker 1: eleven percent gain on stake. One call doesn't make a system,
Speaker 1: but it shows what a clean momentum read looks like
Speaker 1: when the setup lines up. The implied probability at signal
Speaker 1: time was forty seven and a half percent, and it
Speaker 1: resolved at one hundred. That gap is where the alpha lives.
Speaker 1: This is the kind of call token Metrics signal sins
Speaker 1: every week. Start your seven day free trial at tokenmetrics
Speaker 1: dot com. Now let's get into the stories driving all this. First.
Speaker 1: JP Morgan bought Blackrocks ibit in Q one twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: This isn't JP Morgan going rogue. It's them responding to
Speaker 1: client demand. When a bank like JP Morgan starts buying
Speaker 1: bitcoin ETFs for clients, it means the Compliance Department already
Speaker 1: said yes, that's the slow moving floodgate that matters more
Speaker 1: than any single trade. Moving on to our second story,
Speaker 1: the Clarity Act markup happened. Bitcoin didn't move, but Democrats
Speaker 1: filed anti DeFi amendments. The bill is alive, but messier
Speaker 1: than the headline suggests. Watch whether those amendments get stripped
Speaker 1: in committee before the end of May. If they do,
Speaker 1: there's a path to a Senate floor vote before August.
Speaker 1: Third item, the Bank of England is backing away from
Speaker 1: its own stable coin rules the UK. Watch the EU's
Speaker 1: mycof framework attract registrations and adjusted to stay competitive. Finally,
Speaker 1: Coinbase is now the official USDC deployer on hyper liquid.
Speaker 1: This means institutional grade dollar liquidity is now embedded directly
Speaker 1: into one of the fastest growing on chain trading platforms.
Speaker 1: That's a structural upgrade, not just a press release. All right,
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. Three
Speaker 1: things worth watching closely right now. The ETF outflow story
Speaker 1: is the biggest one. Traders are heavily leaned long on
Speaker 1: borrowed conviction. If outflows continue for another few sessions, the
Speaker 1: foreselling could be disorderly. Watch for three consecutive days of
Speaker 1: positive flows and bitcoin holding above seventy nine thousand, that's
Speaker 1: the signal the flush is done. Second layer two platforms
Speaker 1: are bleeding capital across the board and there is no
Speaker 1: clear rotation destination. That is the definition of risk off,
Speaker 1: not a narrative shift. And then there's the FED. Kevin
Speaker 1: Walsh is now confirmed as chair. His hawkish reputation means
Speaker 1: rate cuts could come later and fewer than markets are pricing.
Speaker 1: That's a headwind that doesn't show up in funding rates
Speaker 1: until it's already hitting price. And looking ahead. Three things
Speaker 1: on my radar. The Clarity Act Committee outcome this week.
Speaker 1: Whether those anti DeFi amendments survive markup determines whether this
Speaker 1: bill helps or hurts the space. The Bitcoin ETF flow watch,
Speaker 1: rolling over the next seven trading sessions. Three to five
Speaker 1: days of data will tell us if today was a
Speaker 1: flush or the start of something worse. And the Bank
Speaker 1: of England's revised stable coin framework expected with in the
Speaker 1: next thirty days. If Circle or Tether announced UK licensing
Speaker 1: interests shortly after the UK just became a real player
Speaker 1: in the stable coin RaSE. For those of you who
Speaker 1: are serious about your portfolio, Token Metrics Roundtable gives you
Speaker 1: private AI portfolio reviews, live monthly discussions, and everything in
Speaker 1: our alpha plan. Head to tokenmetrics dot com to see
Speaker 1: if it's a fit. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.