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Speaker 1: You are listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 2: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. With us today

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is our good friend Rick Rule, and we're going to

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get the latest on what's happening in precious metals the markets.

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Is the bull market in silver and gold over Rick,

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It's great to have you on again. And hope all

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is well.

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Speaker 3: Harriet's fair NHDB back and in answer to your question,

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things are going quite well.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. So, you know, like volatility, this is what

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really separates pros from the amateurs because if you can't

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control your emotions when you see what happened in silver

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one hundred and twenty plus dollars announced down to sixty

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four in the blink of an eye, and you know,

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buckle your seatbelt time. But the newer people investing in

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the sector, this kind of movement freaks them out. Let's

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face it, they're just not used to this unless they've

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been playing bitcoin for more than six months, right.

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Speaker 3: You know, Carrie. When I was a very young man,

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I was actually a pretty good trader. I would try

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to trade these short term swings my investment goals. Well,

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I was still in university, were you know, want to

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trade four snow tires and dinner with a day at

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a nice restaurant. I have very focused goals and very

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very periods of time, and volatility was useful for me.

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Then I learned very young that a chart with a

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parabolic up move was going to have an equally sharp retracement,

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maybe not for the whole up move, but it was

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going to have a very sharp retracement, and a parabolic

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down move would also have a correction. Those charts that

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the Canadians call hockey stick graphs cause one to understand

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that the backside of the stick is just as steep

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as the front, but somewhat less fun if you're long.

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Now that I'm not a trader, I sort of regard

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them as noise. I like, I think you sold most

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of my physical silver, and I guess partly about that

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volnable move but mostly because the silver that was in

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my portfolio was in my portfolio as a consequence of

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the fact that silver was a hated asset, and when

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it ceased to be a hated asset, the reason that

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it was in my speculative account went away. And when

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it went away, eighty percent of the silver had to

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go away, or didn't have.

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Speaker 2: To go away.

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Speaker 3: But I just did, you know, I decided I'd look

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somewhere else for hate.

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Speaker 2: All right, well, I'm going to do a clickbait headline here.

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Why is Rick Rule selling his silver?

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Speaker 3: Why has Rick Rule sold?

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Speaker 2: Is probably a better solve.

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Speaker 3: This silver, the you know, the twenty percent I have

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left is you know, likely not going to be.

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Speaker 2: Sold for a while.

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Speaker 3: I believe, Carrie, that the primary bullmarket in precious metals

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has a long time to run. I believe that the

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decade that's in front of us resembles in some way,

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shape or form, the decade of the nineteen seventies. Specifically,

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and I've said this in our interviews before, I believe

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the US dollar over ten years loses seventy five percent

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of its purchasing power. That's what happened in nineteen seventies.

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So I believe that gold and silver have further to run.

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I also believe the pace of the run that we

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saw in twenty twenty five probably can't be repeated. I

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think that late twenty twenty four, late twenty twenty five,

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I think the move that you saw in gold and

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silver was pent up energy. It was the fact that

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gold didn't move in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, twenty

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twenty two, twenty twenty three. And I think most of

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the pent up energy, which is to say, most of

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the price move that's a consequence of past underperformance, is

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now out of the market. So people need to look

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forward for the gold trade. If they don't see the

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gold trade the way I do, they should decide that

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the easy money has been made, take their money off

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the table and go somewhere else.

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Speaker 2: You know, so about that, and you know, looking at

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it where you have that major move, And then, for

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some reason, we always want to think that this time

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is different, that somehow the parabolic move is going to

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continue indefinitely into the future, because this time really is different.

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But I'm always think back to Benjamin Graham, the tree

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does not grow to the sky. Correct. Correct.

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Speaker 3: It's also useful I think for the generation of players

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twenty or thirty years younger than you and I who

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didn't experience the decade of the seventies to revisit it

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in the sense that in the nineteen seventies, I would suggest,

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in response to the deterioration purchasing power of the US dollar,

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the gold price ran what twenty fivefold? Yeah, I'm not

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suggesting by the way it rose twenty fivefold from here.

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What I am suggesting is that in the decade of

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the seventies we had at least four twenty five percent

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price retrenchments, and we had one in nineteen seventy five

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that was a fifty percent ice retrashment.

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Speaker 2: I actually remember that, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: As do I. I remember from alongside it was not

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particularly pleasant for young men. But the lesson in all

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this is that cyclicality and volatility are inherent in bull markets,

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and if you weren't financially and psychologically prepared for it,

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you're going to get shaken out. People who got shaken

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out in nineteen seventy five. For history's sake, I should

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recount the facts. In the period nineteen seventy to early

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nineteen seventy five, the gold price ran from thirty five

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dollars admittedly priced controlled to two hundred dollars, and that

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move at sixfold move attracted a lot of adherence, And

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nineteen seventy five the gold price fell from two hundred

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dollars to one hundred dollars, and the newly faithful wish

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they'd never learned how to spell gold. Those who got

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shaken out at one hundred moved to move from one

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hundred to eight hundred and fifty over the next five years.

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There's all kinds of lessons there.

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Speaker 2: And then the two thousand, it was back down to

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just under three hundred bucks, not till nineteen ninety nine.

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I bought you eight six, if I recall, yes, I

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got in there to eighty eight, so n nice print,

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and I wrote it up and then down. But in

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some respects this time really is different, at least for silver,

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because we genuinely have structural deficits and booming demand. Does

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it make it different? Does it put a floor under

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silver that we wouldn't otherwise normally have if this was

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just a normal market to run up.

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Speaker 3: I'm too old. I'm too old and smart to answer

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that question. Yes or no, fashion we'll talk around it.

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I've been trying to understand the silver market since the

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early nineteen seventies at the University of British Coal Umbia.

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Maybe I'm a dumb guy, but after fifty five years

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of trying, I understand that I don't understand.

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Speaker 2: Here's a few problems. That's knowledge.

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Speaker 3: On the supply side, we don't really know what the

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above ground supplies are. We know what the above ground

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good delivery supplies are, but we know really nothing statistical

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about informal ownership in India, Pakistan, by Gladesh and Sri Lanka.

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Is it a billion and a half ounces? Is it

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three billion ounces? We do know that saving in silver

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has been part of the rural Indian culture, rural South

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Asian culture, I should say, for a thousand years yea.

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And they distrusted their government before we had a government.

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So there's a lot of supply that can come out

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in the right sort of circumstances. In terms of forwards

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looking supply the deficit, we know that silver miners produce

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eighteen percent of annual supply. The rest comes from byproducts

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of other materials and recycling. So the silver price doesn't

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necessarily stimulate supply. You have to look to the copper

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press and seek price led price and the cold price.

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It is really tough to get a handle on a

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silver market. Folks who trade news don't trade the whole news.

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People went crazy with the export restrictions announced by the Chinese,

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But the Chinese said that they were going to restrict

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silver exports to authorized exporters. They issued forty two export

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licenses to politically connected traders, which is to say this

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is more rent seeking than it is market control. It's

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important in markets like these carry for the people who

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are in trade news, which usually doesn't work in my experience,

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to read the whole article, not just the headline, before

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they try to trade on it. So that long soliloquy

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all goes to say an answer to your question, I

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don't know, but.

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Speaker 2: It certainly appears though that industrial demand is way higher

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than it was like in nineteen sixty five when they

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demonetized our coinage. That part is very true.

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Speaker 3: Now industrial demand becomes price sensitive at some point. The

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silver's reflective properties means that the point with regards to

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solar panels probably substantially higher than now, unless there's some

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technological breakthrough what we see in passbow markets. I'm not

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suggesting that past has to repeat itself. What we see

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in passbol markets is that industrial utilization of silver has

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continued except for a five year period after the use

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of photography of silver and.

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Speaker 2: Photography and that's raise.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that created a real slump, but it would appear

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with the germicidal properties of silver, the applications in water

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and wastewater treatment, and particularly with regards to solar that

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industrial demand for silver for a while grows and grows

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and grows. We also know from studying history, though, that

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dramatic price moves in silver haven't occurred as a consequence

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of industrial demand. They've occurred in precious metals bull markets

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after the leadership of gold in those markets, the momentum

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of gold attracted generalist investors into precious metals markets. That's

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what's happened to the last three markets. At some point in

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time in that market when the generalist comes into the

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market leadership in terms of price momentums, which is from

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gold to silver, and we saw that happen in spades

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in twenty twenty five. Yeah, whether or not there's going

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to be a pylon with regards to industrial demand remains

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to be seen. But the condition present for a silver

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price move, which has occurred in every precious metals bull

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market in my life has occurred.

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Speaker 2: So but yeah, I see your point and I understand it,

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but it does seem like, well, let's go over three

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stories that are circulating in the self market right now.

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Number one is Samsung has created a battery that is

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the greatest thing since sliced bread. You'll get one thousand

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miles on your ev The negative is it gobbles up

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silver like nothing else before it. Number two is the

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Chinese whale who made three billion dollars as in trading gold,

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and as best as I can tell, he's real, and

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he did have a short position, but we don't know

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the other side. We don't know if he was doing spreads,

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cross market arbitraging. We have no idea what this guy

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was doing, but he did have a short position. And

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number three is somehow JP Morgan has accumulated a short

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position of six point two billion ounces of silver, which

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is enough to basically destabilize the global financial system. That

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tells you something about what part of the cycle we're

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in as well, because these stories they're just recycled and

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brought up to date, right, and we could add two

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to those.

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Speaker 3: A gold discovery in Uganda that apparently is equal to

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half the gold ever produced in the history of mankind.

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I spend a fair bit of time at Uganda, and

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that deposit has missed me as well as every professional

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geologist in Africa. And a similar discovery apparently has been

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made in China, a gold discovery that numbers in the

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hundreds of millions of ounces. There's a word for this

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in English. It's horseshit. I can't speak to the Chinese

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whale because I don't follow traders. This whale may, as

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you suggest, as you suggest, exist the idea that he's

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going to telegraph his short position, or that somebody is

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going to know about his short position, if he's that

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good at trader. The probability of that, I think is mil.

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As to a six billion ounce short position by JP

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Morgan Chase, that one is pretty simple. With any access

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to the ced our database. The statement of financial condition

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for JP Morgan Chase is available For those people who

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don't want to do that, Let me tell you something

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about my experience on Wall Street, which is deep. The

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only thing that matters on Wall Street to employees of

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Wall Street is quarterly cash bonuses. Nothing else matters. Systemic

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short positions that cause an interest to be payable as

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opposed to receivable reduces quarterly cash bonuses. The people who

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are listening to this need to repeat after me. Nothing

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that reduces quarterly cash bonuses is allowable on Wall Street.

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Interest is to be received. There needs to be a

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net interest spread so that cash is generated, so that

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cash can be distributed. A six billion ounce short position

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would require I don't know, it would acquire at least

242
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the derivatives borrowing billions and billions and billions of dollars,

243
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and JP Morgan Chase would have to post margin collateral

244
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on those billions of dollars, which would cost cash, which

245
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would reduce quarterly cash bonuses. Any story that you read

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about a systemic short position on Wall Street going after

247
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years or decades, you can automatically negate because it reduces

248
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or eliminates quarterly cash bonuses. People work on top of

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Wall Street for quarterly cash bonuses.

250
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Speaker 2: And year ends.

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Speaker 3: Yeah that's right, but you know most of them aren't

252
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that far sighted.

253
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's for sure at the quarterly mindset. So

254
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now that silver has loved, what other resources can we

255
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:03,879
look at? That are still hated.

256
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Speaker 3: It's getting scarce. You know, a sulfid nickel is aided.

257
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If you would talked to me four months ago, I

258
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would have said oil and gas. I was a wild

259
00:16:15,879 --> 00:16:18,639
buyer of excellent at one hundred. I'm a little less

260
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wild at one hundred and sixty. I think the oil

261
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trade is actually ahead of itself. I think it has

262
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a long way to go, but I think it goes

263
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lower before it goes higher. There are some sub sectors

264
00:16:30,639 --> 00:16:37,080
that I like. Mostly I've been expressing my love for

265
00:16:37,159 --> 00:16:39,480
oil and gas, or rather my love for the hate

266
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surrounding oil and gas and the great big companies because

267
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I thought they were cheap. What's happened to me, very

268
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very very recently is I found my portfolio way out

269
00:16:49,679 --> 00:16:55,240
of balance to beta, away from alpha. And there is

270
00:16:55,279 --> 00:17:00,519
a speculative subclass, which is companies with sub two hundred

271
00:17:00,519 --> 00:17:04,759
and fifty million dollar market capitalization that are involved in

272
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:10,319
offshore conventional exploration rather than onshore shale plays, yeah, which

273
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are what the market likes in Third world emerging in

274
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frontier markets. All of the speculative premium that surrounded that

275
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,200
sector for the last forty years. It was a very

276
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good sector for me. By the way, all that speculative.

277
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Speaker 2: Premium is gone.

278
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Speaker 3: So very recently, I've assembled at portfolio personally, and I'm

279
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,319
not going to name the names because I'm still assembling

280
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,839
that portfolio and I don't want ten thousand of your

281
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:39,039
listeners competing with me. But the five companies share similar characteristics.

282
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First of all, there is somebody in management or on

283
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the board who I know and love and trust, so

284
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that the information I get, while not inside information, is

285
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:53,319
certainly nuanced and good. The second is that their projects

286
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,160
have to have analogous production in the same base, in

287
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,359
the same trend, and they have to be well seismically supported.

288
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And the third characteristic is that the seismic signature has

289
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:10,359
to be big enough that if by some odd chance

290
00:18:10,599 --> 00:18:13,799
I'm successful with the well, that I get a fifteen

291
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,680
or twenty to one return. The arithmetic on that speculation

292
00:18:17,799 --> 00:18:23,440
goes like this. These seismically supported big structures with analogs

293
00:18:24,039 --> 00:18:26,880
have a twenty five to thirty five percent probability of success.

294
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:33,279
So if you're taking five starts, you have a statistical

295
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:39,119
probability of one success. If you lose thirty five to

296
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,079
forty percent of your money on the four unsuccessful tests,

297
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:45,440
and you make fifteen or twenty to one on the

298
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,599
one successful test. When you aggregate all that arithmetic, you

299
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:54,640
have a pretty good outcome if you have the emotional

300
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,519
and financial wherewithal to stand the trade, particularly stand the

301
00:18:59,559 --> 00:19:02,400
trade against all odds. You strike out, you go five

302
00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:03,319
or five bad.

303
00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:08,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, oil exploration is a whole different animal than

304
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:12,440
it was kind of twenty years ago. At the risk

305
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:20,079
of dry wells, you know, is mini school compared to then, right,

306
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:21,559
much lower.

307
00:19:21,599 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 3: When I was involved in exploration, well for my employer's account,

308
00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:30,759
not for mine, I didn't have account. Then these deep

309
00:19:30,799 --> 00:19:35,599
wildcat wells on shore had a ten percent probability of success. Now,

310
00:19:35,839 --> 00:19:39,480
these much more expensive offshore shore wells have a twenty

311
00:19:39,519 --> 00:19:43,000
five to thirty five percent probability success provided that there's

312
00:19:43,039 --> 00:19:46,160
good seizmic coverage and there's a producing analog.

313
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you've got a good guy on the

314
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,680
rig there, it's even higher.

315
00:19:51,759 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 3: Right, Well, that could be I'm you know, one can

316
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,799
assume that somebody who's manning a rig for x On

317
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,440
or Shell Hotel, what would guess they're pretty good?

318
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. All right, So these foreign deep water explorers.

319
00:20:14,759 --> 00:20:19,559
Speaker 3: In in countries that most people hate or can't spell

320
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,000
or pronounce.

321
00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 2: And can't find on the globe, right, correct, correct, I

322
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:29,240
have no idea where they're at. So what about gold

323
00:20:29,279 --> 00:20:35,039
and silver miners? Now gold miners are printing money? Is

324
00:20:35,079 --> 00:20:38,720
that going to continue or are we going to retrace?

325
00:20:39,279 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 3: What's going to be well in the very near term.

326
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,559
What intrigues me is I keep sitting in on conference

327
00:20:46,599 --> 00:20:49,920
calls and reading Bay Street and Wall Street research, and

328
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,799
the earnings estimates are based on thirty two, thirty three,

329
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,799
thirty five hundred dollars gold. If you're selling gold for

330
00:20:56,839 --> 00:21:00,519
five thousand bucks and the estimate has you selling gold

331
00:21:00,519 --> 00:21:03,839
for thirty five hundred bucks, it's pretty likely that you're

332
00:21:03,839 --> 00:21:04,799
going to surprise folks.

333
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say good shales of that.

334
00:21:08,799 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 3: One of the things I did, Carrie, when I sold

335
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,720
my silver is I redeployed half the money into silver stocks,

336
00:21:15,519 --> 00:21:16,400
high quality ones.

337
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 2: Here's why.

338
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 3: If from seventy five dollars is an example, silver traded

339
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,200
sideways for a year, which I don't think is unlikely

340
00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:27,799
by definition of silver trade sideways, I don't make any

341
00:21:27,799 --> 00:21:31,480
money on it, right, right, But if silver maintains seventy

342
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,119
five dollars in trade sideways. Given the fact that the

343
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,440
earnings estimates for the silver companies are predicated on forty

344
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,359
five dollars silver, if you make the stuff for seventy

345
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,200
five as opposed to a forty five dollars estimate, you

346
00:21:43,279 --> 00:21:46,039
do pretty well, and it causes Wall Street and Bay

347
00:21:46,079 --> 00:21:49,720
Street to redo their net present value calculations. So it's

348
00:21:49,759 --> 00:21:53,160
not unlikely if a seventy five dollars price environment is maintained,

349
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:55,640
that the silver stocks are up by forty five or

350
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,839
fifty percent even while silver goes sideways. So ironically, if

351
00:21:59,839 --> 00:22:04,480
the silver price falls, the net present value calculations probably

352
00:22:04,559 --> 00:22:08,960
don't change much because from seventy five dollars to forty

353
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,119
five dollars, that forty five dollars is the basis of

354
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:16,240
the existing net present value calculations. So it's a very interesting,

355
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,279
very asynchronous bet.

356
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 2: And yeah, it really is because your downside is limited

357
00:22:23,279 --> 00:22:25,880
because basically you wind up with what you have now.

358
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:31,960
But if the price shows any strength, any resilience, which

359
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,680
I think you're probably correct, I mean, I don't want

360
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,519
to predict silver prices. It's easier to predict trend than

361
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,960
so than the actual price. For sure, but yeah, if

362
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,920
it just stays where it's at, these guys print money.

363
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:52,599
So and that's the lag time between the price appreciating

364
00:22:53,039 --> 00:22:58,680
and then the downstream effects being understood by Wall Street.

365
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,920
And this is something that happens a lot, doesn't it.

366
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:02,319
It does.

367
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 3: Now your listeners need to understand that this is a

368
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,240
strategy that doesn't play it over a long weekend. I'm

369
00:23:09,279 --> 00:23:14,519
talking about arithmetic, and arithmetic always lags narrative, which is

370
00:23:14,559 --> 00:23:16,640
to say, if the silver price fell from seventy five

371
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,680
dollars to forty five dollars, although the silver stocks would

372
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:25,480
be appropriately valued, they probably would fall in price for

373
00:23:25,599 --> 00:23:28,599
a year or eighteen months because the narrative would be

374
00:23:28,839 --> 00:23:31,960
that silver was a bad place. People wouldn't look at

375
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,400
the industry's free cashle at forty five dollars or the

376
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,039
net present value of future casuals at forty five dollars.

377
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,039
They would look at the fact that the silver price

378
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,640
and silver stocks fell, and they would react to the

379
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:48,839
narrative rather than an arithmetic fashion. Eighteen months or let's

380
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,839
call it thirty months from here cures that, which is

381
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,920
to say, over time, the narrative has to surrender to arithmetic.

382
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,839
But it doesn't surrender to arithmetic in a timeframe that's

383
00:23:59,839 --> 00:24:01,440
aw and suitable for speculators.

384
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. Interesting thing is in the nineteen sixty silver was

385
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:10,240
ninety cents an ounce, you know, so I'd say the

386
00:24:10,279 --> 00:24:13,279
price of silver is more than kept up with whatever

387
00:24:13,319 --> 00:24:16,119
the real rate of inflation is, which will never know

388
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,119
because it's impossible to know and be because even if

389
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,079
they did know, they wouldn't tell us.

390
00:24:22,039 --> 00:24:27,839
Speaker 3: Right right, you know, that's something we should talk about, Carrie.

391
00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:37,640
The even listeners of yours, let's just say they're far

392
00:24:37,759 --> 00:24:41,119
enough off main Street to listen to you, very.

393
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: Far off, Like they took a turn. They took a

394
00:24:43,519 --> 00:24:46,079
turn off main Street and they never found it. They

395
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:47,160
never got back again.

396
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, And whether that was rational or bourbon infused. Even

397
00:24:51,599 --> 00:24:55,640
your listeners, I think many of them conflate the CPI

398
00:24:57,079 --> 00:25:00,319
with the rate of deterioration of the US dollar, and

399
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:05,880
that's wrong. We have been conditioned by this factoid called

400
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:10,000
the CPI. The CPI is an example when it's inconvenient

401
00:25:10,039 --> 00:25:10,839
doesn't include.

402
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 2: Food or fuel.

403
00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:14,559
Speaker 3: If somebody saw both you and I walking down the hall,

404
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,359
they would conclude that an index that didn't include lunch

405
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:18,759
was of no interest to you.

406
00:25:18,839 --> 00:25:22,039
Speaker 2: Or I, I mean.

407
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 3: Arithmetically, I would urge your listeners to do a back

408
00:25:27,519 --> 00:25:31,559
of the envelope fact check and ask themselves in the period,

409
00:25:31,559 --> 00:25:37,319
say twenty twenty to twenty twenty six, whether the basket

410
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,160
of goods and services that their household consumes has only

411
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,799
become two point six percent more expensive year on year.

412
00:25:45,759 --> 00:25:49,880
This is insane, I mean, this is truly insane. I

413
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,160
did the calculation myself informally. You know, I didn't audit

414
00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:57,240
every purchase I made, but I looked at things like

415
00:25:57,759 --> 00:26:01,559
health insurance, car as you're on mortgage interests, you know,

416
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,680
things like that. It would appear. And by the way,

417
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,480
I'm a little cheap skate, I don't buy much, but

418
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,119
it would appear to me that the deterioration in the

419
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,319
purchasing power of my savings relative to the basket of

420
00:26:15,319 --> 00:26:19,920
goods and services I buy, it would appear that the

421
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,680
deterioration value is between eight and ten percent, not two

422
00:26:24,759 --> 00:26:30,079
point six. That becomes problematic for people, because people who

423
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:36,400
are planning their life for the next ten years against

424
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,559
a two point six percent deterioration they're purchasing power, are

425
00:26:40,599 --> 00:26:47,119
going to make an enormous enormous mistake. I mean, I

426
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:51,519
really think it's important that when people think about how

427
00:26:51,519 --> 00:26:53,599
they're going to sustain themselves for the next twenty years,

428
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,119
that they ignore the CPI and think about a number

429
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,359
that's closer to their own experience in the decade of

430
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,119
the seventies, which you and I remember, Carrie, but many

431
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,440
of our contemporaries don't remember. The basket of goods and

432
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,759
services that one could acquire in nineteen seventy for one

433
00:27:10,759 --> 00:27:15,319
thousand dollars cost four thousand dollars by nineteen eighty. If

434
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,839
you were living on a fixed income, or if you

435
00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:24,759
had your savings deposited in a bank account, earning four

436
00:27:24,799 --> 00:27:28,200
point two or four point three against twelve percent inflation,

437
00:27:29,279 --> 00:27:33,400
you've had a very ugly experience in the decade of

438
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,119
the nineteen seventies, and I would ask for your listeners

439
00:27:37,599 --> 00:27:43,079
to think about their own financial plan in that context.

440
00:27:43,519 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: That's so true. You know, the numbers do not reflect

441
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:54,039
reality by any stretch. But interestingly enough, in you know,

442
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,960
in nineteen seventy, I think it was two silver dimes

443
00:27:58,079 --> 00:28:04,079
bought a gallon of as, and now two silver dimes

444
00:28:04,279 --> 00:28:06,759
by like, I don't know, I did the math I

445
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:11,200
think it's six or eight gallons of gas, which in

446
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,359
itself tells you a lot. Now, obviously there were times

447
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:20,400
when the purchasing power of physical metal actually declined, like

448
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,519
I think in nineteen eighty or ninety, I don't remember,

449
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:29,400
but it actually declined. But those were anomalies, yep, in

450
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,960
the course of time. So that tells you a lot

451
00:28:33,039 --> 00:28:33,519
right there.

452
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: Well, certainly twenty eleven to twenty thirteen there was a

453
00:28:38,279 --> 00:28:42,759
real dump in metals prices and in the real purchasing

454
00:28:42,799 --> 00:28:49,359
power of metals, perhaps by fortuitous luck, but I hope

455
00:28:49,359 --> 00:28:56,640
my experience. I began to save let me rephrase that,

456
00:28:57,359 --> 00:29:02,160
I began to incorporate a substantial amount of gold in

457
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:08,200
my savings, maintaining liquidity in US dollars and maintaining liquidity

458
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,759
and gold too. But really my permanent savings became more

459
00:29:12,799 --> 00:29:17,960
and more gold dependent. Interestingly, about six months ago, I

460
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,880
have some of my money managed by a multi family office,

461
00:29:21,599 --> 00:29:23,359
and I've told him they can do anything they want

462
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,960
except for precious metals and natural resources. In other words,

463
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,680
I want that part of my portfolio out of my

464
00:29:28,799 --> 00:29:32,319
own out of my own harm's way. And I sat

465
00:29:32,359 --> 00:29:35,799
down with the portfolio manager there who has always been

466
00:29:35,839 --> 00:29:39,400
interested in my portfolio. He does what I do, and

467
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:40,880
I asked him not to do what I do in

468
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,880
my own portfolio. And he showed me how much more

469
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:49,720
affordable things are for me as an example of being

470
00:29:49,759 --> 00:29:53,359
on the Golden constant. He showed me an index of

471
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,680
the S and P five hundred. He showed me an

472
00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:01,759
index of home prices. Yeah, you know, he said, interestingly, Rick,

473
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,039
for you, really things are much cheaper than they were

474
00:30:06,039 --> 00:30:08,680
in the year two thousand and I thought of it

475
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,039
in that context, but it's wild.

476
00:30:11,319 --> 00:30:14,079
Speaker 2: I'm actually doing a report, not to plug it here,

477
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:19,200
but tracing the purchasing power of silver, gold and the

478
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:25,920
US dollar on things like cars, houses, Thanksgiving meal Like

479
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,319
a Thanksgiving meal used to be like an ounce of

480
00:30:29,319 --> 00:30:33,759
silver back in the sixties. Bought a Thanksgiving meal Right now,

481
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:39,319
an ounce of silver buys a multiple meals, you know, good,

482
00:30:39,359 --> 00:30:42,839
half a week's worth of meals. It's a fascinating study

483
00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:45,519
that I don't think is done enough. I'm calling it

484
00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:52,079
living the silver backed lifestyle? Are you? And yeah, it'll be.

485
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:56,440
It's just a fun exercise for all you subscribers out there. Hey,

486
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:01,680
this discussion would not be complete without a discussion of AI,

487
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:06,359
because we're both very aligned on it. You know, it's

488
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,480
worse than garbage in garbage out. It's like garbage in

489
00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:14,160
and you don't know what is going to come. You

490
00:31:14,839 --> 00:31:17,640
said it, and I had said it myself that if

491
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,519
you don't ask it the right questions, you're never going

492
00:31:20,599 --> 00:31:23,920
to get the right answer. And the ability to ask

493
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,519
it the right questions isn't something you can just pick up.

494
00:31:29,039 --> 00:31:31,759
It's something you have to suffer through a lifetime of

495
00:31:32,319 --> 00:31:38,279
investment mistakes and catastrophes to really know what to ask

496
00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:38,759
it right.

497
00:31:40,039 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 3: I would say in my hands, until a year ago,

498
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:47,279
AI stood for artificial idiocy. What AI did when I

499
00:31:47,319 --> 00:31:49,200
asked it a general question before I knew how to

500
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,359
constrain it, was it would search for consensus opinion on X.

501
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:58,279
In other words, it was a compendium of the beliefs

502
00:31:58,359 --> 00:32:02,240
of every more on the planet, which was not of

503
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:07,000
particular use to make. The more recent versions of AI,

504
00:32:07,559 --> 00:32:12,559
if you understand how to constrain them, are miraculous. My

505
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,279
partner in the real classroom, Albert lou.

506
00:32:16,799 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: Who is you know?

507
00:32:18,039 --> 00:32:20,759
Speaker 3: He was a semiconductor engineer, became before he came over

508
00:32:20,759 --> 00:32:22,920
to the dark side, he's really pretty good at technology,

509
00:32:24,039 --> 00:32:29,519
he said, Rick, you know we're educating AI with your

510
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,440
YouTube talks, Yes, and with a lesson from the classroom,

511
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,799
and pretty soon I'll be able to duplicate and fire you.

512
00:32:38,799 --> 00:32:43,440
You will become redundant because AI will be better at

513
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,680
your mannerisms and your equips that you are. The great

514
00:32:47,759 --> 00:32:49,880
quips that you had twenty f says, the great quips

515
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,000
that you had twenty five years ago. Rick, you've forgotten,

516
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:55,039
but AI hasn't, and they'll be able to. They'll be

517
00:32:55,079 --> 00:32:58,960
able to recycle those quips into today's circumstance, and AI

518
00:32:59,039 --> 00:33:01,160
will be a much better Rick rule and Rick rule.

519
00:33:02,799 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you're still coming up with quips. Creativity

520
00:33:07,359 --> 00:33:12,359
aspect is interesting, but the ability, I mean, I watch

521
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,359
good amount of youtubees and I have to be totally

522
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,400
on guard to see if it's an AI. There's certain

523
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:25,240
ones that are so so good that I just have

524
00:33:25,319 --> 00:33:28,960
to know. And then they're going back to historical stuff,

525
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,960
different works that people did, and they're creating new works

526
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,480
and quoting them and if you didn't read the original,

527
00:33:37,839 --> 00:33:41,359
you wouldn't know that this was all fake. And in fact,

528
00:33:41,359 --> 00:33:45,119
I had to use AI to prove that something was fake,

529
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:49,519
because I knew it wasn't. Right now, I uncovered a scam,

530
00:33:49,559 --> 00:33:54,559
a nationwide scam. I'm dropping a book next week. And

531
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:59,799
this is the cover of the book, and it's America's

532
00:34:00,119 --> 00:34:05,839
rate parking scam. You've been robbed. And basically it's like

533
00:34:07,039 --> 00:34:09,239
I didn't even know this until I use the AI.

534
00:34:09,639 --> 00:34:13,639
But there's a standard for signs on the highways that's

535
00:34:13,639 --> 00:34:17,239
federally mandated, that's been adopted by every single state. It

536
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:22,800
includes parking signs. They're called traffic control devices. That's signs

537
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:27,960
that stop signs, traffic lights, flashing lights, lines on the ground,

538
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:33,679
all of this, it's all standardized, and everything is paid

539
00:34:33,679 --> 00:34:38,280
attention to except parking. Nobody cares about parking signs. So

540
00:34:38,559 --> 00:34:41,639
I'm dropping this book. I'm starting a lawsuit on it

541
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,360
because I just I'm tired of the parking grift and

542
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,800
the nickel and diming of the government. But without AI,

543
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,760
I would have never discovered this, or it would have

544
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,920
taken me years to figure it out. All of this

545
00:34:55,559 --> 00:35:01,199
is encompassed in this book, complements of the US Department

546
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:07,400
of Transportation, the Federal Highway Administration. It's only about twelve

547
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,480
hundred pages thick. If I had to read that frickin

548
00:35:10,599 --> 00:35:14,079
thing to find all this would have never happened. So

549
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,400
when you talk about Albert and you yourself and the

550
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,760
way if you use it properly, it is a force multiplier.

551
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:27,440
And I tend to think that it's consumption of silver

552
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,000
by AI is not all they're saying it is. I

553
00:35:31,039 --> 00:35:35,360
think it's exaggerated, but it sounds good in the media, right.

554
00:35:36,119 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 3: Yep.

555
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:37,639
Speaker 2: You know.

556
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:45,079
Speaker 3: One very interesting thing that I've seen. When I first

557
00:35:45,159 --> 00:35:48,559
came into financial services, I was an intern, which is

558
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:55,480
finance speak for slave to a wonderful, wonderful, legendary value

559
00:35:55,519 --> 00:36:00,559
investor named Peter Kundall, and working for Peter Kundall five

560
00:36:00,639 --> 00:36:04,679
years of quarterly reports physically remove the staples and lay

561
00:36:04,679 --> 00:36:07,039
them out along the a long conference table.

562
00:36:07,079 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: Oh you know, and dating yourself. Yeah.

563
00:36:11,519 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 3: Peter Kundle was a great fan of the ben Gram

564
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,920
net net sort of thing. So you'd look for companies

565
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,320
that were selling the discounts to the value of their

566
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:26,119
working capital, and you would take weeks doing this. In

567
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:31,519
one industry, doing comparative net present value calculations could take

568
00:36:31,559 --> 00:36:36,440
six weeks. We not me, but a young person who's

569
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,960
a member of the rural classroom, helped me do this

570
00:36:40,119 --> 00:36:49,559
very recently. With AI, she said, search exchange databases worldwide

571
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,079
and give me a list of every company in the

572
00:36:52,119 --> 00:36:55,039
world that has negative enterprise value in other words, a

573
00:36:55,079 --> 00:36:59,960
company where the market capitalization and their debt was less

574
00:37:00,079 --> 00:37:03,239
and the value of their current assets either inventory or cash.

575
00:37:03,519 --> 00:37:06,400
Right where those companies are cash flow positive in other words,

576
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,320
where they're not falling knives. Yeah, And AI churned around

577
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,719
for about three minutes. Three minutes it took that long, huh,

578
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,199
and produced a list of seventy companies.

579
00:37:17,519 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 2: Seventy. I can't believe there's seventy net nets floating around

580
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:22,800
in the world. Well there.

581
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 3: I mean, what AI isn't very good at right now

582
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:31,159
is searching for extraneous problems like lawsuits hanging over them,

583
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,119
stuff like that. But the fact that it could find

584
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,559
seventy companies worldwide that were nominally at least cash flow

585
00:37:38,639 --> 00:37:44,880
positive with negative enterprise value, yeah, astonished me. There's wartz

586
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,119
by the way, you know, there's probably ten in Japan

587
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:52,480
that are eighty percent controlled by one family, so you know,

588
00:37:52,559 --> 00:37:56,039
you can't get much benefit out of that.

589
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:02,639
Speaker 2: But lawsuit risk is good As a lawyer. I can judge,

590
00:38:02,199 --> 00:38:08,159
I can value lawsuit risk, especially using AI. Some of

591
00:38:08,199 --> 00:38:12,760
the best hits I've ever had were lawsuits where the

592
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:18,079
stock was artificially depressed, like TVO dating myself here there

593
00:38:18,119 --> 00:38:21,719
was trading for nothing, and they won their lawsuit, which

594
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,519
I knew they would, and then they won their appeal

595
00:38:24,119 --> 00:38:29,480
and it went up tenfold. So yeah, it's spectacularly what

596
00:38:29,519 --> 00:38:31,639
you could do. And I don't really think AI needs

597
00:38:31,679 --> 00:38:33,800
as much silver as they're claiming it needs.

598
00:38:34,679 --> 00:38:38,599
Speaker 3: You know, my hope, Carrie. I think you know that

599
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,599
I spend a lot of money maintaining the database of

600
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:46,320
public companies in the natural resource business, and we use

601
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,320
those well, we use them for my own account, but

602
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,559
we also use them to rank portfolios as a free

603
00:38:50,559 --> 00:38:56,360
service for people and young people in the real classroom

604
00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:00,960
and at the Colorado School of Minds believe that they

605
00:39:01,039 --> 00:39:05,440
can automate about ninety five for sure that database. For me,

606
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,920
I'm spending right now about three hundred and fifty thousand

607
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,199
dollars a year on that database on consultants.

608
00:39:14,199 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 2: Oh, there's no question I could do it. There's no question,

609
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:21,039
because you've got a starting point. If you didn't have

610
00:39:21,119 --> 00:39:23,920
anything and you wanted to assemble it, it would be

611
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,840
a bigger challenge. But it's running now, so it's just

612
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,599
creating agents to do all.

613
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,679
Speaker 3: That stuff like that has it has now a thirty

614
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,159
five year history of upgrades and downgrades, so they can

615
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:41,440
artificial artificially reassemble three decades of thought process.

616
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, it's it's spectacular. So it is the future.

617
00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:49,079
Do you think it's going to have these humongous job

618
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,960
displacements that they're predicting.

619
00:39:52,559 --> 00:39:57,199
Speaker 3: I think so yeah, I do, which is, you know,

620
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,559
probably not all bad. You free up people to do

621
00:40:00,679 --> 00:40:04,719
something that generates more value for society. I mean, certainly

622
00:40:05,039 --> 00:40:09,000
the young analyst Rick Rule, the young slave working for

623
00:40:09,039 --> 00:40:14,239
Peter Kundle, would have been replaced, but Rick Rule's ability

624
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:18,480
to understand how to ask it questions.

625
00:40:18,039 --> 00:40:20,039
Speaker 2: Can't be replaced. Yeah, we can.

626
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 3: Just unbelievable. So, I mean, I think for people who

627
00:40:27,679 --> 00:40:32,599
Robert Reich would have described as symbolic workers, knowledge workers,

628
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:37,199
AI will be truly a thing of beauty. For people

629
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,440
who don't think a lot about their work, They just

630
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,440
try to show up and make some money. That is

631
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:43,920
not going to have a happy outcome for them.

632
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 2: And I'll tell you you know, I've had Tesla for

633
00:40:47,519 --> 00:40:53,360
years and the full self driving. According to the stats

634
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,480
on the car, and I think they're conservative. It says

635
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,719
the FSD is driving ninety five percent of the time.

636
00:41:00,119 --> 00:41:02,639
I think it's closer to ninety eight or ninety nine

637
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,599
because I hardly ever drive. And I will confess to

638
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,119
actually having fallen asleep in the car when it's driving.

639
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,920
Not a smart thing to do. But honestly, what kept

640
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,079
me up all these years was having to concentrate on

641
00:41:18,119 --> 00:41:22,719
the highway, you know, to evaluate all the threats constantly emerging,

642
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:27,840
you know, past, present and future threats. And now like

643
00:41:28,039 --> 00:41:31,079
especially on the highway, it drives better than me. There's

644
00:41:31,079 --> 00:41:34,519
no question. Doesn't have quirks. Yeah, but I got quirks too. Yeah.

645
00:41:34,559 --> 00:41:37,719
I was gonna say, does it get drunk? No, No,

646
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:42,599
it doesn't get tired. It's fatigued. It is. And that

647
00:41:43,199 --> 00:41:44,599
to me says everything.

648
00:41:44,639 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 3: Because you think about this, think of Elon musk Ever

649
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,760
went into the auto insurance business. He has automatic data

650
00:41:53,039 --> 00:41:56,039
on every driver that drives a Tesla. He can price

651
00:41:56,079 --> 00:41:58,199
the insurance to the risk of the driver if the

652
00:41:58,280 --> 00:41:59,480
regulators will let him.

653
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 2: He's he's in it. He's got it. And I think

654
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:07,920
twelve or thirteen states. He just that is. Yeah. Well,

655
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:12,280
they asked Warren Buffett about it, and he said, yeah,

656
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,519
you know, the car insurance the insurance business sounds real

657
00:42:15,599 --> 00:42:17,960
great is people send you money and you send them

658
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,360
pieces of paper. But it's a little more difficult. But

659
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:26,639
he'd never had real time data on millions of vehicles.

660
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,639
And you know, according to Musk and I don't know

661
00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:32,960
if it's true. Like I said, it's one of those

662
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,920
AI things that I want to see the numbers on.

663
00:42:36,199 --> 00:42:40,280
It's three to four times safer already than human driver.

664
00:42:41,039 --> 00:42:43,360
But you know, La, when it comes to parking in

665
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,440
the parking lot, it's not so good. I don't trust

666
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:51,079
it right where there's all sorts of stuff going. But

667
00:42:51,079 --> 00:42:54,679
but it's just a.

668
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:55,199
Speaker 3: But you know, Carrie, that isn't where the risk of

669
00:42:55,239 --> 00:43:00,199
auto insurance. In auto insurance is a federal Yes, yes

670
00:43:00,199 --> 00:43:03,000
they have a claim, but that's nothing like a million

671
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,760
dollars in my ability for hitting somebody.

672
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, or you know, or you know on the highway

673
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,000
that's well, highways are actually safer. It's actually the local

674
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:17,199
streets for the worst accidents take place. Counterintuitive, but yeah, well, Rick,

675
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:21,199
I always appreciate you coming on the show. One of

676
00:43:21,199 --> 00:43:24,559
the great things about you global thinker. You don't think

677
00:43:24,599 --> 00:43:27,199
in terms of data points. You think in terms of

678
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:35,280
systems and in terms of patterns. Pattern recognition and pattern recognition.

679
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,239
That's something that AI really excels at. But it's something

680
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:45,199
that they don't teach consciously in our schools, our universities.

681
00:43:45,519 --> 00:43:51,000
There's no course in pattern recognition. Course in logic, yes, history, whatever,

682
00:43:51,079 --> 00:43:53,880
but there's nothing in pattern recognition. You were going to

683
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,960
teach a pattern recognition course, how would you teach it?

684
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 3: Interesting question. I haven't thought about it. I guess in

685
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:09,840
order to make people assimilated, I would have to show

686
00:44:10,079 --> 00:44:16,159
synchronous and asynchronous patterns on some subject that I could

687
00:44:16,159 --> 00:44:18,480
make autobiographical because people relate to people.

688
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, yeahs.

689
00:44:20,639 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 3: It so, I guess I could do it. In the

690
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,880
context of the oil market and the oil stock market

691
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,760
going back forty five years, the thesis would be, in

692
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,159
terms of pattern recognition, the cure for high prices is

693
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,559
high prices, the cure for low prices is low prices,

694
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:40,400
and the variable is taxation interest rates. I could probably

695
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,880
do that, now that you mentioned it, I hadn't thought

696
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,280
of that. Question until you asked me. But I think

697
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:49,000
the easiest way for me to teach the course would

698
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:52,239
be to take the oil industry from nineteen sixty five

699
00:44:53,119 --> 00:45:00,480
to twenty twenty six and teach cyclicality and variability. There

700
00:45:00,519 --> 00:45:03,440
have to be three variability scales. One would it be technology,

701
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:10,599
the second would be theft aka taxation at rightltion right,

702
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,800
and the third would have to be real inflation adjusted

703
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,519
interest rates. And I think you could teach a pretty

704
00:45:18,519 --> 00:45:23,239
good pattern recognition course doing that.

705
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that's what AI is really all about. In

706
00:45:26,599 --> 00:45:30,880
the end, pattern recognition, and how you refine that pattern

707
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:35,119
is how useful it becomes. And you know it's something

708
00:45:35,159 --> 00:45:37,840
you've been doing unconsciously your whole life. While you can

709
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:42,639
look at a stock market chart and predict with reasonable

710
00:45:42,639 --> 00:45:45,719
degree of certainty where it's heading next, or where the

711
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:50,079
trend is, or where you want to be in three years,

712
00:45:50,119 --> 00:45:53,559
but the market's not there yet, and I think there's

713
00:45:53,599 --> 00:45:56,880
some value to it, and.

714
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,559
Speaker 3: AI probably maybe you know the answer to this. I

715
00:45:59,559 --> 00:46:05,280
suspect AI probably would be able to looking at a

716
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:09,159
fifty or sixty year chart like that, point out what

717
00:46:09,199 --> 00:46:12,239
the most relevant variables were. In other words, use we'll

718
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:16,199
probably be able to figure out taxation, technology and real

719
00:46:16,199 --> 00:46:17,599
interest rates without being prompted.

720
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh for sure, for sure, because you know that's

721
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,480
where the mastery and crunching all those numberes decades of

722
00:46:26,599 --> 00:46:29,880
numbers that you know humans can't even do it. You know,

723
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:34,960
that's why we use charts, because we can't comprehend the numbers. Yeah. Well,

724
00:46:35,159 --> 00:46:37,880
just something to think about in any event, appreciate you

725
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,039
coming on. Hey Rural Classroom, how do you sign up

726
00:46:41,039 --> 00:46:42,800
for the Rick Rural Classroom.

727
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: Three things I want to tell your listeners about if

728
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,719
you'll permit me. The first is given that I spend

729
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,239
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year maintaining a

730
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,559
public company database and natural resources. I'll give you that

731
00:46:54,639 --> 00:46:59,199
database for free. Send me your natural resource stocks. List

732
00:46:59,199 --> 00:47:02,800
your natural resource at Rule Investmentmedia dot com, and for

733
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,719
free I'll rank them one to ten, one being best,

734
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,760
ten being worst. I'll comment on individual issues if I

735
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:12,639
think my comments have value. Please no crypto, no tex stoks,

736
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:16,400
no pot sucks. Yeah, no clip though I don't do those.

737
00:47:16,559 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: Okay.

738
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,519
Speaker 3: That other thing is at the real classroom. We now

739
00:47:21,519 --> 00:47:26,559
have seventeen thousand students who are for free accessing well

740
00:47:26,599 --> 00:47:30,159
over three hundred hours of instructional material at the real

741
00:47:30,199 --> 00:47:33,840
classroom five and a half hours on introduction to natural

742
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:39,079
resource investing. There's also the Rick Rule channel and the

743
00:47:39,159 --> 00:47:45,000
Rule Investment Media Channel on YouTube. But we also have

744
00:47:45,079 --> 00:47:49,199
one other event coming up, the thirtieth Rule Nature Resources

745
00:47:49,199 --> 00:47:53,559
Investment Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida, July six through ten,

746
00:47:55,199 --> 00:47:58,519
the finest natural resource conference I think on the planet.

747
00:48:00,079 --> 00:48:03,280
We will sell out of the live conferences here. We'll

748
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,199
sell it out within thirty days. For the first time

749
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:10,360
in twenty years, we have pardon me unlimited access online.

750
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:17,480
So Rule Investment Symposium July six through ten, Booker Raton, Florida.

751
00:48:17,519 --> 00:48:18,960
If you think, for any reason you didn't get your

752
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:21,039
money's worth, We'll give you your money back.

753
00:48:22,079 --> 00:48:24,639
Speaker 2: I'll give you your money back because let me tell you,

754
00:48:24,679 --> 00:48:27,119
I've been to I don't even know how many of them,

755
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:31,639
Rick back in Vancouver, and you know, obviously I'm not

756
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:37,000
looking for but everything I learned there, I monetized it.

757
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:41,000
Everything and the people you meet, you know. The other

758
00:48:41,039 --> 00:48:44,800
thing is why I love resource business better than any

759
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:49,320
other industry. Everyone's a character. Number one. I You're not

760
00:48:49,559 --> 00:48:54,280
going to see straight lace to ivy league like lawyer types,

761
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:58,519
white shoe firm types, forget that. But they're all smart

762
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,559
and they're all problems. And when you get that many

763
00:49:02,639 --> 00:49:07,840
problem solvers under one roof, something magical happens. You know,

764
00:49:08,199 --> 00:49:13,880
the impossible becomes possible and the it rubs off on you.

765
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,159
I don't think I'm that bright, believe me, I don't.

766
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:20,280
But when I'm around smarter people, it makes me smarter.

767
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:21,360
So fine.

768
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 3: They're pretty nice. Yeah, you know, we've got we've got

769
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:28,639
a couple speakers. Nomi Prince comes to mind. Oh yeah,

770
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:33,119
very very, very famous person. She comes to the conference,

771
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,000
She hangs out at the coffee pot, she hangs out

772
00:49:36,039 --> 00:49:38,800
the r she goes on the boat preuse, you know,

773
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:40,679
eminently approachable.

774
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:44,840
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and you're eminently approachable. I mean I started

775
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:48,320
this fifteen years ago, Rick, and you like you're the

776
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:52,440
most generous going on people's shows of anybody out there.

777
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:58,079
But yeah, good people, problem solvers. They're actually trying to

778
00:49:58,119 --> 00:50:01,199
make a difference, you know, like, Okay, we're all driven

779
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,920
by the profit motive, but these people are special. And

780
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:09,119
it's really you know, because hey, to it survived in

781
00:50:09,159 --> 00:50:13,360
the resource sector this long. You got to have something extra.

782
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:20,400
You can't just be a you know, a schlepper or

783
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:24,480
a I'm trying to remember what somebody once told a slacker.

784
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,519
Somebody once told me I was in San Diego and

785
00:50:27,559 --> 00:50:29,360
he said, yeah, it's a great place, but it's the

786
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:32,159
land of the slackers, which why New Yorkers can do

787
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:35,719
so well. So you can't be a slacker and make

788
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:39,719
it to the Rick Rule Investment Conference. You just can't.

789
00:50:40,159 --> 00:50:45,639
Speaker 3: Well, we look forward to your non slacker audience visiting us.

790
00:50:45,639 --> 00:50:49,000
By the way, if you come either live or live stream,

791
00:50:49,039 --> 00:50:50,920
you'll have access to the recordings of the conference for

792
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,920
a year, and you'll need them. We're going to give

793
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,280
you more information over four days and forty six hours

794
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,480
then you can absorb. So when I tell you it's

795
00:50:59,519 --> 00:51:02,000
going to be four days for everybody to get their moneys,

796
00:51:02,119 --> 00:51:05,599
who can be eight days attending the conference and then

797
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,079
playing back the recordings.

798
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 2: And great people. It's so worth it, and really appreciate

799
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,199
you coming on. Rick. I'll have a link to Rick's

800
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:21,079
various enterprises in the show notes. Highly recommend the classroom.

801
00:51:21,199 --> 00:51:23,800
I'm signing up for it, like right away, I noone

802
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:27,360
realized you were doing it and Hey, look forward to

803
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:31,719
seeing and Boca in the summer and you'd be well.

804
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 3: Thank you and you as well. Thank you for the

805
00:51:34,039 --> 00:51:35,400
opportunity to have this discussion.

806
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

807
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:43,760
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

808
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:50,199
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,