Speaker 1: Abbreviated addition of bet on It for the college football
bowl games headed up to New Year's Eve.
Speaker 2: Let's get right into it up next on bet on.
Speaker 1: It, Kelly Stewart, Yanni, the Greek, and Marco clause As
we film bet on extremely early this week due to
the Christmas holiday. I give everybody Christmas Eve off, and
now they're complaining. I don't know what else to do.
You guys, it is what it is, Yanni. We're gonna
get right into this. I kind of decided on this
week's show with the bowl games moving so much late,
opt outs, transfer portal, coach is still leaving, and so forth.
For lack of better words, I think the college Football
playoff nil and the transfer portal kind of ruined the
bowl games. But there are still a few ball games
that have minimal opt outs, coaches intact, and guys willing
to play. So we're gonna go over a few that
we like leading up to New Year's Eve, and I'm
just gonna let you go first.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna dive right into the playoff game with
Ohio State and Miami.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 3: The reason we're narrowing down the best bets is because
a lot's gonna happen between now and kickoff. For all
these bowl and playoff games, the public still hasn't gotten involved.
The wise guys still haven't gotten involved. Like there's a
lot of information that still has to be factored into
that betting line. And unless you want to get out
ahead of the market, if you really have conviction on
a position, there's no reason to fire. But there are
some spots that are automatic. And I got to look
to Ohio State here because regardless of what the bettings
did get to do, I'm going to stick to my
power ratings. They've provided me a ton of profit, most
notably in college football by looking at exactly a situation
like this where I think one team's coming in a
little bit overvalued, the other one a little bit undervalued,
and Miami's coming off a nice win against Texas A
and m No surprise there. I talked about how my
rankings had Miami above Texas A and m VAP, and
the playoff rankings had it the other way around. That
gave us line value on Miami. We did our job.
They then went out there and did theirs. In this spot,
I got to look to Ohio State Number one there's
a little recency bias of Miami coming off a nice
win with Texas A and m as three point underdogs.
Good defense, that's what Miami has. They're going to get
tested this week because they're now facing a top ten
offense in Ohio State, number one. Ohio State has slightly
tougher strength of schedule than Miami, so I like that
their data on the offensive side is a lot lot
more impressive with a comparable strength of schedule.
Speaker 2: And then on the.
Speaker 3: Defensive side, where where Miami's fourth inefficiency if they're going
to run into the number one defense when it comes
to efficiency in Ohio State. So Ohio State's just better
everywhere offense, defense, special teams. Add in the experience ad
in the big game, and now we look at the
betting line power rating wise, I have Ohio State twelve
and a half points better than Miami, and I think
probably shaded a little higher than that, closer to two touchdowns.
So being able to get this one at a discount
based on that recency bias, I gotta do it anything
less than minus tens a gift. We're in plus ev territory,
so I'm gonna go with Ohio State. Buckeys as my
best bet, and that's with someone who has a future
on Ohio State and is not hedging, is not looking
to play a middle I could look to take the
nine to ten points with Miami.
Speaker 2: That's not gonna happen.
Speaker 3: We're gonna let that future ride on Ohio State.
Speaker 2: Arco clause.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to hear your synopsis on this ballgame coming up,
But first, can you let everybody know what we're doing
for Christmas over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 4: Twenty five percent off everything you can get whatever it is,
a daily package, monthly package, season package. We're giving away
the house, whether you've been naughty or nice, twenty five
percent off for Christmas. Just use code ex Mus twenty
five and put that in the coupon code at checkout.
You'll get a twenty five percent discount from Santa Claus
in the entire wager Talk family.
Speaker 5: Kelly, how's that? Were you on the naughty or nice list?
Speaker 1: Huh? That's probably still up for debate, but I did
cash my best bet for the first round of the
Bowl game, so hopefully our audience thinks I'm on the
nice list. You did as well. Let everybody know why
you like a in this bowl game.
Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, you look at Iowa and Vanderbilt. In the
natural narrative here for this matchup is Vanderbilt's gonna come
in with a chip on their shoulder. They got something
to prove. You look at them, they were tending to
a lot of people thought they deserved to be in
the college football playoffs. So that's motivation. Well maybe you
know they also have their fiery quarterback, the Diego Pieva,
who finished second in the Heisman voting, and you saw
him on social media. It didn't really appreciate the distance
that he finished in the second place, so you could
tell he was upset with the voters and made some
comments but then retracted it afterwards. Motivation works both ways. Yeah,
you can use it as a motivational tool and go
out and have something to prove, or if you dwell
on it too, it can be a huge negative if
he felt you were slated. On the flip side of that,
I'm looking at an Iowa team that's you know, we
know what they are. They were eight and four, great season,
but look at their four losses. Their four losses came
by a grand total of fifteen points. Iowa as they
always do. They lean heavily on their stout defense. They
held ten of twelve opponents to twenty four or fewer points.
No one scored more than twenty eight points on them
this year, and they even held seven of their opponents
to seventeen or less. Stanta, Claus and Mark will always say,
give me the better defense getting points, and that's clearly Iowa.
And I'm gonna go ahead. In Iowa. You talk about
opt outs and so forth. They've as of taping and
again we're taping, you know, on Tuesday before Christmas. They've
had no significant opt outs yet they're expected to bring
a full roster for this game. I'll go ahead and
take Iowa plus six, all right.
Speaker 2: I agree with Marco on that one.
Speaker 1: Diego Pavia might still be po partying after losing the heisman.
Speaker 2: That being said, I'm going to.
Speaker 1: The Pop Tarts Bowl because again we're looking deep here.
We're going, all right, who is not having any opt outs,
We don't have any major coaching changes, Who has rosters
in tech and who will be focused? Well, I can't
promise you b Yu is going to be focused here.
If you guys remember they got snubbed by the Playoff
Committee and got left out after getting absolutely worked by
Texas Tech in the Big twelve Championship game. Now they're
asked to lay four and a half here in Orlando
versus the Georgia Tech Cougar or Georgia Tech Coover's yellowjackets.
Speaker 2: So you have to kind of look at this one.
Speaker 1: And I'm looking at this going, wait, I get bet
on Hayneses King as an underdog. We all know, if
you guys follow my college football underdog Parlays, we loved
him last season. This year we didn't get a lot
of value for him as an underdog, but we do
like his style of play and this offense eighteenth in
EPA per play has been clicking on all cylinders all
season long. They're gonna match up well against BYU's strength,
which is their defense, and they try to control the
pace of play. But I have a feeling Georgia Tech
is going to be watching that Big twelve Championship game
and trying to figure out how to exploit said defense. Right,
they do allow some of those long drives that give
up tons of points, and if you're able to exploit it,
you can win this game.
Speaker 2: Look, you're getting me more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: With this top twenty five offense, I think I gotta
take the yellow jackets here plus the points. I know
a lot of people looking towards the under there not
I I think this is going to be a really fun,
high scoring game.
Speaker 2: And there you have it.
Speaker 1: That is just our short Christmas edition of the Bowl
games through New Year's Eve. We're gonna be back Tuesday.
No Marco clause, but Marco D'Angel will be back Yanni
the Greek. Tuesday, we're gonna preview all of the college
football playoff games.
Speaker 2: And if you guys, of course, are looking for the
NFL Slate, we got it right here. Blah bla shorten
edition of The Mega Show as well,