Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is Thursday. It's mid
major Thursday. But of course we have I guess a
massive big ten game just to talk about to start
the show before we get the show going. Listen, we
came on here yesterday recap not such a good day.
So Rob and I have to take a minute to
recap a great day for us. I went three and oh, Rob,
what was it three and oh or four and oh?
Speaker 2: For you?
Speaker 3: It was four and oh.
Speaker 4: But we did for those who about the package, we
lined up on san Diego State, so double winner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was I mean, that is true. I didn't
even really think of that.
Speaker 1: That was I kind of followed your lead there. My
buddy Chris Thurston loved san Diego State, and I just
said to myself, like I even think I wrote it
in the write up.
Speaker 2: I said, I was in a play them all mood yesterday. Rob.
Speaker 1: You know, I kind of felt like after the first
couple of days of the week, I said, well, you know,
I've got Saint Mary's I locked in a decent number there.
I'll give myself the best chance to go to and one,
and it worked out.
Speaker 2: We swept it.
Speaker 1: We went three and oh, so yeah, I guess if
this was one of the you know, you know, typically
you probably don't want to double better game, but if
you did, it worked out in your favor. The only
thing that didn't work out yesterday was the parlay. But man,
the Citadel, they were tied in the second half of
that game. So to lose the parlay with a fifteen
and a half point dog that was tied like with
fifteen minutes ago, is tough.
Speaker 2: But it's all good.
Speaker 1: And like I said, I will take the blame for
Citadel not getting it done. We appreciate the contribution from
Garth and who knows, maybe maybe Bayou's lurking for somewhere
and wants to make it a three teamer today, I
still think we got to go three team er on
some of these. It's just the payoffice. If we're gonna
do parlays we might have we'll try to get three
legs and or rob maybe today, what if we agree
on one, we'll just put it in the leg or
put it in as the third legs parlay.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: VP lost in overtime with Ciena last Friday, and I
wanted to let him ride off into the sunset. He
had a great run he gives out. He argua, well,
he really probably should have went five and zero. Of
course his leg would siena plus three and a half
goes down in overtime, So yeah, I let him. I
let him ride off into the sunset with a four
and one week. But you can get you know, Brian
Power still doing his thing every day, him and Mark
Zeno over on the Morning Wager which is is on
wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: But yeah, we are, We're gonna get right into it, Rob.
Speaker 1: You know, it's mid major Thursday, but they get such
the power conferences just can't stay away.
Speaker 2: Sometimes every once in a while they sneak one in.
Speaker 1: It's usually like Rutgers play saying someone or Penn State,
and we don't even have to acknowledge it or talk
about it because Thursday is the day that typically the
feature game is going to be you know your Belmont
Bruins or maybe you know Wilmington. But the powers that
be said, no, we're gonna put like a massive top
fifteen Big ten game on Thursday, So the mid majors
are going to have to wait for just a second.
Michigan State Rob heads to West Lapea, Indiana tonight, just
to the art. This might be the biggest game on
a Thursday all season. I don't know what the uh
you know what the reasoning was. I guess putting in
putting this one on Thursday as opposed to Friday. You know,
Penn State or I'm sorry, got forget Penn State.
Speaker 2: Purdue.
Speaker 1: I feel like they had really kind of struggled in
these spots, these sort of big time standalone spots this year,
but they kind.
Speaker 2: Of, I guess, got right a little bit.
Speaker 1: Last time we saw them in the primetime spot, which
was last Friday Day, and they just ran Indiana out
of the gym ninety three to sixty four.
Speaker 2: Amazingly.
Speaker 1: They have not played since then, so they got the
weekend off, they got the early portion of this week off,
and now we get a Thursday game Purdue and then
the Michigan State Spartans in the Marquee matchup for Thursday.
Speaker 2: What are you seeing in this one?
Speaker 4: I'm seeing that the money jumped on Purdue. Did they
not at it? I mean, my goodness, five?
Speaker 2: Is that a surprise? Though? Is that a surprise? Does
it not happen constantly?
Speaker 4: And it kind of changed my lineup thinking, I mean
everything I'm gonna say here is going to be pro
Purdue until we get to laying eight points, and then
I'm gonna kind of You know, people hate when we
don't take a firm stance on games, but when they've
already taken all the value out of something, you know,
or at least what I perceived to be all the
value out of something, it takes a second look. Let me
go ahead and just tell you what I think on
this game. You know, we say often, you say it
often on my behalf. I love comp games, games where
I can compare styles, sides, results.
Speaker 3: Et cetera.
Speaker 4: And to me, this has all the makings of Michigan
State going up to Madison to play Wisconsin that night.
Michigan State comes in with this intimidating defense. What's Wisconsin?
How are they going to beat them? Well, what they
have to do to beat them is they have to
bomb threes, rain threes. They've got enough shooters to do it,
They've got bigs who can do it. And what happened,
Michigan State was never close in that game. Despite the
fact that all their defensive metrics are elite. Wisconsin went
in there and just shot lights out in their home
building coal center. Michigan State never closed because you know why,
because they can't really shoot. They depend an awful lot
on turnovers, fast break points, second chance points, those types
of things that we've talked about throughout the season. But
beyond you army fears, they've often found it trouble trying
to find a second scorer on that team. Some nights
it happens. Sometimes cone Car does it, sometimes he doesn't.
And so here I feel like you have the same matchup.
Purdue loaded with shooters, perimeter shooters, not just like Wisconsin,
not very good defensively. Can Michigan State exploit it enough.
I'm not sure that they can exploit it enough. They
couldn't do it against Wisconsin. Michigan State turns the ball over,
you know again, a little bit like Wisconsin. Purdue's not
a turnover forcing team. So that matchup there may neutralize itself,
may benefit Michigan State in their turnover problems a little bit.
Michigan State loves to hit the glass. Purduees are very good,
and I think this is key. They're a really good
defensive rebounding team. Michigan State is poor shooting as they are.
If they put one up and miss. They're not going
to get that second chance as often as they do
against other squads. So there's a lot of things here
that add up toward Purdue. Michigan State puts people on
the foul line relentlessly. Purdue's not a good free throw
shooting team. They better get the right free throw shooters
to the line. Normally Braden Smith does walk up there,
but you have to have the right free throw shooters.
Speaker 3: On the line for Purdue.
Speaker 4: I don't know, Adam, I wasn't expecting eight. I do
expect Purdue to win. I think this game sets up
so much like the Wisconsin game. It's it's very, very
eerily similar. And about the layoff with Purdue, because that's
often the twenty twenty hindsight question, right rest or rust?
Is Purdue going to come out rusty because I've had
so much time off college basketball team is used to
playing twice a week now they're only going to play once?
Or are they going to be rested? In the Purdue case,
And again, this is just projection on my part as
a handicap or better, I feel like the rest did
them or the seven days off did them Wonders, they
came off the Michigan loss, Matt Painter kind of set it.
We wouldn't have hung any Final four banners if we
had won this game, and he tried to reset the
entire season. Purdue came out, they won their next game,
got a little bit of time off to again sort
of reset, And I think that's the spot therein for
Michigan State.
Speaker 3: If you like that side.
Speaker 4: The points are attractive, the defense is attractive. Can they
do enough scoring wise would be your concern. Can they
hang on to the basketball would be your concern.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I think Purdue is gonna win at him. I don't
know that I could get to minus state. I'm looking
at the total here, which was bet up from one
forty and a half to one forty two and a half.
I guess I could agree with that a little bit.
Toward the over last thing I'll say here is Tom
is was a great head coach, and I'm a handicapper better.
I mean everything I'm saying here. Tom mizl already knows
and then some but they're maybe some corrections he can
make from that Wisconsin game to this Purdue game, and
maybe they do play a little bit better defense on
the Michigan State side, maybe they don't let Purdue run
out and bang threes the way Wisconsin did to them.
Maybe they went into that game a little bit cocky,
so to speak.
Speaker 3: But I don't know.
Speaker 4: I just think Purdue is a better team overall, And
I think you said it best just that, you know,
sometimes it just comes down to the team, can you score,
can you make shots? It sounds so simplistic, but you
got to make shots. Purdue does. Michigan State overall does
not as consistently, so I would lean Purdue. But man,
they took at five and a half. I'd been a
lot happier than eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, that is so that's obviously going
to be the key in my opinion for Michigan State
is like can they make enough shots to even hang
around in this game, because if they don't the shots,
this is the type of game where I think they
could get run out. I think that's kind of what
the market is suggesting with this move. Now, for me,
I've talked about this. I'm I've been so far off
the market with Purdue that like, when this opened five
and a half, I knew my number was gonna show
like big time value on Purdue. I think that might
be the way I lean, but still I still see
a path to victory for Michigan State, and I don't
really want to play against Michigan State and lay the points,
especially not at the current number. Although like my number
is like ten point one, so it was like even
at like seven, it's still showing value against Purdue. But
this is this is a scenario where my handicap goes
against like my power rating of the teams. And so
I'm gonna pivot and talk about the total because I
kind of think this one stays under either way. If
Michigan State is not hitting shots, you could get your
scenario where is up fifteen to twenty no extension, and
suddenly you're having a hard time getting to the total.
But I think for Michigan State to win this game,
they kind of got they have to dig in on
the defensive end. They have to eliminate any second chance
opportunities for Purdue, which rob they are built to do.
They should rebound, they should have the you know, the
rebounding edge here in this game. Michigan State's a tremendous
rebounding team. Now Purdue is probably going to force them
into some outside shots. Go back to the beginning of
the season, got to see Michigan State play one of
their earliest games of the year. I think they went
one for fourteen from three, and I kind of, you know,
they missed a lot of open shots in that game.
Speaker 2: They missed a lot of open shots. In the following game.
Speaker 1: They had a stretch where they randomly shot the ball good,
and I think they tricked everyone. Rob I think Michigan
State tricked some folks because they had a stretch where
they shot the ball well. But I don't think that
this is a great jump shooting or three point shooting team.
They have to get out and transition. The way Version
can state it's going to score on you is to
is to get a stop, get a rebound, you know,
hit someone on an outlet pass, and try to get
to the rim. Purdue can probably put them into in
the half court. Like Purdue's good enough in my opinion
denying transition to put them in.
Speaker 2: A half court.
Speaker 1: So, as I sort of talk this out, all of those,
all of everything I just said points to an under
do I have the stones to do it?
Speaker 2: Not?
Speaker 1: Really, I'm not a huge totals, guy, and listen, there
could be points. But everything I just said right there, Rob,
does that not sound like a handicap that would lend
itself to an under.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll add one to it. Adam.
Speaker 4: Just going back to what I was saying about the
Wisconsin game. That Wisconsin game landed on one sixty three.
But I think the difference here is Wisconsin is one
of the three top tempo teams in this league, was
consin plays much.
Speaker 3: Faster than Purdue. Purdue is just fine.
Speaker 4: They're efficient as all heck, so they're just fine coming
down in the half court. A lot of teams wouldn't
be fine setting up against the Michigan State defense. But
Purdue is one of those that I think can slow
you know, unlike Wisconsin, they'll look to slow this thing down.
So even if they would, it kind of makes the
current number of eight and a half look even larger.
I mean, if you're going to play a game at
one forty two and a half total, then the implied
final scores seventy four, sixty six, seventy five, sixty seven
in that range, it kind of sounds close, but in
some instances seventy five I guess Purdue is efficient enough
to find their way there.
Speaker 3: You get where I'm going with it.
Speaker 4: Though it's a little bit different than Wisconsin in that
aspect where Wisconsin will play quicker tempo than Purdue will tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Purdue is turning the ball over a little
bit more we're accustomed to, So maybe maybe they do
have some incentive. I actually think Purdue is a lot
of incentive to slow this game down. I don't think
you want to get into a scenario where you're you're
giving Michigan State points in transition because that's what would
likely keep them in the game in my opinion. So
I think if this game goes the way Purdue wants
it to go, it's probably staying under. But then again,
you know, I think for Michigan State to hang around,
they need to do it on the defensive end, not
give up second chance points, which are very good at doing.
So my handicap really points to the under. That's that's
where I'll take a stand and make my pick on
this game. I'll say, under Purdue, Michigan State. Let's go
to the chat. Mansey, thank you for the donation, much appreciated.
He says, we got a great report on wife's cancer.
So thanks for all the well wishes. That's awesome to hear. Yeah,
let's have a big Thursday. That's always the goal. And
again that's fantastic to hear. So great news right there
for a man, Let's go back to all right, I'm
just clicking on all sorts of things, Rob, I got
pop ups going.
Speaker 2: I don't know what what I just did. Uh. I
see Garth in there. He says, sorry for a Citadel,
It's all right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you had hit six in a row before that,
so really, Garth, I'm sorry for putting for for for
jinxing you in that manner, but I said I would
take the blame, so Citadel is on me.
Speaker 2: I liked him to listen, you get to the.
Speaker 1: Fifteen minute mark with a fifteen and a half point
underdog in your tie, typically you're feeling decent.
Speaker 2: So that was that was a tough one. And yeah,
I was surprised at the watching. So I had I
had good spot last night. Rob at Charlotte game. I
was right at the media table, so I had the
whole setup going. I had the charger, I was plugged
in Citadel game. You know, my computer with me, So
I and yeah, I'm sitting there watching that game. It
was pretty competitive first twenty five minutes. I did not
see that.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen collapse singing in the To lose the
game is one thing, but to go on and basically
lose it by twenty in the final fifteen minutes after
you played an even first twenty five and you won
the first meeting was surprising. But let's go to Garth here.
He's donated. We very much appreciate that he likes the
what will next year? Rob will be the Mark Turgeon
Kansas City ruse. But they, you know, unfortunately for them,
they still have to finish out this season and they
are gonna do so as a twelve point home underdog
to South Dakota State. And so let's go talk some
Summit league basketball here. So I'm going to the comment here, man,
I am struggling with the the screen. He says, okay, yeah,
because it's coming up small. I got to figure out
why this is coming up so small for me, So
I'm gonna squint here to read this real quick. He
likes the um Case team total under sixty eight and
a half. I guess it really depends on what you
like like how you feel about South Dakota State here
there of course going on the road as a big
favorite for these little turn for these smaller conferences at
this point, like I handicapped pretty much this whole card
at this point, I have not locked in a play yet, Rob,
although I've got like like literally five that I potentially
could play. And when I'm getting into some of these
smaller conferences, I'm really finding myself having to get into
the conference tournament scenarios because the last week of the season,
I mean a team a league like this and pretty
much every mid major league that's going to play today
for the most part, you're talking about teams that have
no chance at an at large bid. So this league
or this this week, Rob, becomes very tricky to gauge,
you know, just just what teams are really going out
trying to play for a in, what teams are trying
to play to get into their conference tournament, and then
what teams are sort of saying, you know what this is, Uh,
this is kind of a week off because we feel
good about where we're at and we want to focus
on on the tournament you know that's coming up next week.
You know, one could argue that Austin p last night.
That was a good game, But again, it was a
game that I think, you know, they had the top
spot wrapped up. I feel like Central Arkansas maybe wanted
that one a little bit more so you you and
Casey South Dakota State. I believe the top two teams
in this league are gonna be North Dakota State and
Saint Thomas. So it's been a down year for the
jack Rabbits relative to what they typically are. Do you
think they come in and give a performance that's gonna
get Garth's team total home in Kansas City tonight?
Speaker 4: Well, it's a it's a must win game, certainly for
South Dakota State. Now where the standing sit currently now,
South Dakota State, they could jump from eighth to fourth,
or excuse me, from seventh to fourth or sixth to fourth,
because they're only one game behind in the lost column,
and it makes a world of difference because one through
four obviously are going to have an advantage here at UMKC.
The Marvin Menzies thing was a total disaster all season long.
Haven't played a lick of defense. South Dakota State is
not the same offense that they once were. Certainly they
don't play as high scoring games as they did, but
against this defense, they should be able to. To me,
Casey has thrown in the towel for the most part,
and they weren't a good offensive team to begin with.
So for from Garth's perspective, I could see it. I'd
almost try to take you the truth to take the
opposite approach. And I'm not gonna talk Garth off of
Missouri KSE team total under, but I would alm rather
lean towards South.
Speaker 3: Dakota State team total over.
Speaker 4: Teams have made their way to this number fairly easily
all season long. There's been a little bit of an
increase in the full game total in this particular contest,
up about a four to four and a half point move.
South Dakota State's being asked right now to get to
eighty one to win this game.
Speaker 3: It's certainly not out of the question.
Speaker 4: I guess if we put the two of our thoughts together, yeah,
it would be hard to still say gay full game
total over. So I was gonna make a mistake by
saying that. But my preference to Garth would be to
take the South Dakota State team total over A because
I still think they have plenty to play for. B
Because UMKC has nothing to play for. They're locked into
the eight nine game. They might as well just let
conference tournament time happen and see because the UMKC defense
has been so poorous all season long, including right now.
So if it's a team that's a shade disinterested, then
all the more offense for South Dakota State. And it's
a team that actually, at this point in time, Adam
still needs to locate some offense. So putting up an
eighty five point game, eighty six point game probably would
do them a little bit of good mindset wise where
their offense is concerned. That's the way I'd look.
Speaker 1: UMCC has failed to go over this number and seven
of their last nine games, and you know, I'm starting
to look at the standings kind of looking at South
Dakota State and how they've played of late, Like I
could definitely see the incentive to South Dakota State destroying
UMKC in this game. Now, do I want to lay
twelve and a half on the road with this South
Dakota State team? Not not really, but this is the
you know, this is the type of game for a
team like South Dakota State, who's accustomed to being closer
to the top of this league than they are, that
can still improve their you know, because you pointed out,
you know, the sort of logjam in the middle, they
still have the ability to play their way as high
as fourth, and you know, they they've certainly been better
on the defensive end. Their issues have, you know, because
of course their coach goes and takes over the Drake job,
takes arguably their best player with him. It's definitely a
team that's lacked on the offensive end this year, but
they still do kind of dig in on the defensive end.
So Garth, I'm just gonna I'm not even gonna offer
up a pick in this game other than to just
sort of go back to your pick and finish the
you know, answering the question here, I think UMKC would
have to get there by accident. The first meeting was
ninety to sixty two. It almost feels like rob it
would have to be one of those scenarios where South
Dakota State is up by so much they just kind
of stopped playing. They stop kind of like digging in
on defense, and suddenly UMKC up with some easier buckets
because I think if I think, if the jack Rabbits
are focused for forty minutes here, there's no way that
UMKC is getting over that total just based on what
they've done their last nine games. That's so that's that
is right now, I think an appropriate sample because you're
talking about what's happened in the last month for UMKC.
They announced next year's coach. They they they like. Rob
said they've pretty much waived the white flag on the season,
and seven of those nine they failed to go over
this total. So I think you found a reasonable angle
with this team total under their garth. All right, let's
go back to the chat here. This is ah, this
one's interesting. Ill let's do this, I Rob, we did.
We did talk our way I think kind of talked
their way onto a winner in the eleven in the
eleven AM game yesterday, we both we so I see
people in the chat want to talk about it, and
we will. But yesterday we talked about an eleven AM
game twenty minutes before tip. I think you and I
kind of both agreed on the over army shot forty
five degrees in the game, which is basically what I
said they would do, made fourteen of them and the
game went over and then I think Colin Gregory liked
buck Nellen. They won the game outright, So the chat
wants to talk eleven AM Coastal Athletic Association basketball here,
and we've got Charleston on the road in a league
game at eleven am taking on Hampton. I believe Rob
this was scheduled. I don't think this is like a makeup.
I'm pretty sure that this was an eleven am game
on the schedule. I remember Hampton doing this last year
as well. I don't remember the reason, but I do
think it was a regularly scheduled Hampton home game tipping
off at eleven am Eastern time. So for me, there's
a couple of things here.
Speaker 2: Hampton.
Speaker 1: You absolutely need to know this status of Michael Ellie. Now,
Michael Ellie finally came back. He had been out with
turf toe, and so this is a guy that was
at Siena last two years ago, and he was a
very highly touted recruit at Sienna, and he could just
could never stay on the floor. And I'm pretty sure
it's an injury that's plagued him his entire career. So
basically he'll have these turf toe flare ups where he
just can't play. And then last year he was at
Tulane didn't do a whole lot there. Now this year
for Hampton, he's been their best player. I mean, he
is their score. And that's why it's so important to
know if he's going to play or not, because Hampton's
offense is significantly significantly worse when he's not on the floor,
and you can kind of see they've struggled without him.
So the flare up started early January, and then he
kind of tried to play through it. A couple of games.
You can kind of see, like the game against Wilmington
twelve minutes, four points, the game against mom Is thirteen minutes,
seven points. Those are like he was clearly hurt in
those games. You go back to the Campbell game, he
dropped forty three. I mean, that is what this kid
is capable of doing at this level. So I will
note that the Charleston game with Ellie was the first
one that they sort of started to mention that he
had complained about it. And in that game, Rob he
played twenty four minutes but only scored fourteen points on
six of seventeen shooting. Now, this is a long way.
This is a lot about one guy. The reason this
is so important Rob is we finally saw him last
game for nineteen minutes against Stonybrook, and in those nineteen
minutes he looked like himself. Seventeen points to nineteen minutes,
the best player on the floor. Probably would have played
a little bit more, but he wasn't a little bit
of foul trouble. So I like the Charleston team with
Hickman back, they've been better. But you go back to
that first meeting with Hampton. Hampton nearly won the game,
and they did it with Ellie hobbling around the floor
against Charleston in Charleston.
Speaker 2: Now you turn.
Speaker 1: Around and you've got this one on your own floor.
If Michael Ellie gives them thirty good minutes here, Hampton
could very well win this game. But it's really really
tough to know if that's gonna be the case. So
what do you do with that, Rob Hampton, Charleston, we're
going in thirty minutes, can you find a player or not?
Speaker 4: Yeah, And if you're just using action on this game
as indicating there's the league of different directions. Money's come
in on Charleston, but money's also come in on the
over I mean, there'd be no real reason for a
five point movement in the total unless Ellie was gonna play.
Then you figure Hampton's gonna do their part. But if
he's gonna play, why are we pushing Rob?
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna play. I watch some of the
Stonybrook game. He looked. I'd be shocked if he doesn't
play here.
Speaker 4: So and so the move on Charles Adam is kind
of where I'm at with this team. Is I really
want to play on them through the remainder of the season.
It seems like Chris Mack has come up with a
style here. They're a little bit slower than they would
have liked to have been if they were fully healthy.
I think Hickman's or no, Hickman was reinstated as a
matter of fact, last game, so there.
Speaker 1: Who He conveniently missed the one game that I had
a client play on Charleston, Yes, because of.
Speaker 4: An academic deal, and he got reinstated, and here they come.
So Charleston is hole again. In my notes, I have
played Charleston remainder of the season.
Speaker 3: So I like that side.
Speaker 4: So for me, I think the opportunity here with Ellie
going is definitely with the total. I really I would
expect that Charleston's going to score theirs now that Chris
Mack has his entire team for or the second game
once again, and Hampton with Elie on the floor, even
if they target him defensively at him, it would be
tough to completely shut him down, and you would expect
that nineteen minutes would grow in this game to maybe
twenty five twenty six minutes more time on the floor
for him. So to me, I think that that movement
is the one that's really really correct here.
Speaker 3: I don't know that I would lay it time of game,
et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 4: Of course, if it was a scheduled game, Charleston would
have probably prepped for that, But total to me seems
you can still I'm looking here to get the best
number available. Thirty nine and a half still out there,
a couple of forties forty and a half even in
some spots, but I think one thirty nine and a
half is probably a pretty good overplay because when he
played the first time, they got to one forty four
and so you have history on your side here, You've
got player personnel on your side here. I just want
to check really quick here, Adam, first time around between
these two, Yeah, for Charleston.
Speaker 3: Hickman and Doug and were involved. The whole gang was there.
So yeah, the first time.
Speaker 4: If you're playing it early, the way I would play
it is over one thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: So Rob, you absolutely nailed Charleston being a different team
with Hickman, because I remember we talked about Charleston a
little bit when they were really banged up, and as
soon as they got Hickman back, they started to look
much more look the part than, you know, than they
did prior. And that was early in conference play. Now,
of course you've got you know, you've got Charleston right
in the mix. Another thing, so I'm gonna settle on
because I do agree with with some of the stuff
you say about Charleston. Hampton is so much better with
Ellie on the court. Another wrinkle here is you got
Charleston going to Wilmington on Sunday for a massive game,
so you could have a little bit of a look ahead.
Speaker 2: Spot is a huge game. I believe it's gonna be
no matter what. Here, it's gonna be one verse two
in the league, and that one is at Trash Coliseum
on Sunday night, so very similar to yesterday. I don't
really want I.
Speaker 1: Kind of you know, I I think at a bigger
number because that's the other thing. I think this got
bet up for Charleston just because of like now that
Charleston's back. I think the market noticed that that number
was a little bit low on the open and bet
it up toward Charleston. I think where it got, like
where the Hampton opposition came in, is probably where the
numbers should have been in the first place. So for me,
there just wasn't enough value to get involved with Hampton.
But the spot suggests Hampton could be live as a dog,
and I think I'm just gonna go with you, just
like yesterday, if Hampton's to stay in this game, they're
probably getting something for Michael Lelly. And if they get
something from Michael Lelly, they're probably going to exceed the
scoring output that they've had recently because they played basically
without him for an entire Monthson does their thing, it
is hard to believe it's not an over. So yeah,
I'm I'm I'll co sign this over with you. Let's
see if we can do it two days in a row.
Bucknell Army got there at eleven am over yesterday. I
think we're gonna get another one today.
Speaker 2: I don't think this is See here's the thing. I
don't think this is a kid's day. I just think
I gotta find out.
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, Hampton played an eleven am A Conference
game last year too. I don't know why, but I
remember them playing at eleven am. I believe it was
against stony Brook. This year they've got Charleston. I'll have
to figure out why, but I believe it was scheduled.
This was not like they moved up because of weather
type scenarios.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we'll go over. We will go over with
that one.
Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna put I was gonna suggest like
putting it, you know, as the leg we agree on
in the parlay, but I'm not gonna do that because
it starts in twenty five minutes. So that is just
to the benefit of the live audience, which we very
much appreciate, and of course we appreciate the on demand
audience as well. This is up on the Wager Talk
YouTube channel. Rob and I have a package up that's
been up all year. It's the three day double the
Firepower CVB package, three days of all access for myself
and Rob. If you had it yesterday we went seven
to zero. I think we had a we had a
pretty good day last day. I think we had a
six and o day together not too long ago. So yeah,
that's a you know, and if you want that for
the rest of the year, email and the customer support
they can absolutely set that up for you to get
that through the rest of the year.
Speaker 2: And Rob, I've got a couple. I haven't locked anything.
Speaker 1: In yet, but there's one and that I may make
a five percenter today. I'm waiting for like one piece
of info and so I will have something today. It's
just when you get into the mid majors, I tend
to do my due diligence a little bit longer in
the morning because it is just much harder to confirm
injury news and you just don't want to end up
on the wrong side of like one, you know, a
three point move because someone is out. So I'll be
locking in after the show today. But I've got some
that I really like. Mansy's got one he likes. Let's
get Mansey in the chat. Here he says, I got
a position on cal Poly minus five and a half
against Long Beach State. He believes that Long Beach State
has thrown in the towel and Polly has a little streak. Yeah,
cal Poly came for me a week ago today, Rob,
I had cal Poly as a four percent play that
I gave out on this show lat. I believe it
was last week, last Thursday. Yeah, it was because my
sleep still hasn't recovered because I stayed up till two
thirty am watching that game, watching cal Poly score an
outright win on the island in that game for their
third straight win in a row. So I would agree
with that Mansey in terms of, like, you know, right now,
there is no question cal Poly is is the team
that is more inform, playing the better basketball they are.
They've won three straight they've knocked off Rob. Not only
has cal Poly won three straight games, they've beat Irvine,
Santa Barbara, and Hawaii. So surely this is where they
let down and lose to Long Beach, right, Like that's
that's That's what I'd be concerned with. But Mansy says,
you know what, I'm just gonna lay it with cal
Poly the beach. Maybe at the beach at this point,
maybe you have thrown in the towel. So how do
you see that cal Poly Long Beach And would you
go with the side or the total in this one?
Speaker 4: And you know that that cal Poly game, you know
in retrospect they were up ten to nothing right out
of his shoot, plus twelve and a half against why.
Speaker 2: Fifteen point lead in that game for them.
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably could have gotten yourself a little extra sleep,
But when you're betting these games, you're not taking any
extra risk. You want to make sure that they're covering
at the final horn. You know, the only team hotted
than cal Poly in this league right now is Northridge.
And we've talked a ton about these two teams this year.
I like them both. Cal Polly's slow. Again, to be repetitive,
I just go back to the early season game against
UCLA where sky Clark was kind of be fuddled at
the fact that cal Poly could go so fast and
shoot so good from three. They can shoot Long Beach
out of this game almost immediately if they're on tonight,
and Long Beach doesn't really have the recovery power even
though cal Poly's not a defensive force by any stretch
of the imagination.
Speaker 3: But they'll just continue to run, continue to score.
Speaker 4: When I look at it, I wonder what Long Beach
can actually do to prevent that from happening. It would
take a cal Poly subpar shooting night and a Long
Beach really good shooting night in.
Speaker 3: Order to get that.
Speaker 4: And you cap this off at him by just saying
that cal Poly's got revenge in this game, and they're
playing their best ball right now. But they lost seventy
four to sixty seven the first time around to Long Beach.
Speaker 3: So these kinds of things stick in your head.
Speaker 4: Tea, we should have been team, we didn't be, but
we're playing great right now. Rounding it to form it
is the fastest tempo team in the country.
Speaker 3: Again, I just.
Speaker 4: Five and a half is a number where separation can
be created by a team like cal Poly in forty
five seconds.
Speaker 3: Boom boom, two threes. That's six right there, Roy lay
in five and a half. So to me at.
Speaker 4: Home, there's gonna be enough of those instances over the
course of forty minutes where cal Poly probably does get
to this number. You know, it's funny if you hadn't
said it, I would have said it that when Mansie
mentioned cal Poly's on the little streak, it's no little streak.
When you're beating Irvine, Santa Barbara and Hawaii, that's a
monster streak three in a row. Because by the time
the third game comes around, even though they were taking
twelve and a half, you kind of have to ask yourself,
you just beat Irvine, you just beat Santa Barbara. Is
there anything left to go play Hawaii on the island?
But there was, there was more than enough left. No
reason to think that they wouldn't have that here. I'm
sure Mike to George driving at home right now, that
we want to play our best ball right now heading
into conference tournament time.
Speaker 3: This is our shot.
Speaker 4: I couldn't agree more with Mansey on cal Poly, especially
at this price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this if you can get over, if you can
get past the whole conspiracy theory, right like, oh this
is uh, you know they've just beat like the best
three teams in the league. Of course, you know this
will be the letdown spot. Like there's really, in my opinion,
there's not like a basketball reason here to think that
cal Poly doesn't win this game. By double digits, like
the the way they're playing right now. So yes, you do,
you do have the first meeting, but remember the first
meeting was way back January third. I mean kids were
coming off of coming off of Christmas.
Speaker 2: Break like that.
Speaker 1: That's a that's always a sleepy spot regardless, like those
that first week.
Speaker 2: And so I actually hit.
Speaker 1: The road New Year's Day and like those days prior,
and it was I'll probably never attend games in that
stretch again.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: It was like there's no one on campus. You know,
it's just a weird vibe. And I wonder how much
of that permeates into some of those results, because it's
like you're playing these big conference games, conference play starts,
but like campus is a ghost town arenas, there's no
one there. But more importantly, like a lot of these
kids like maybe just came maybe they got done with finals,
maybe they came back from a like a layoff, maybe
they got to go home a little bit, you know,
the rigors of the you know, now, the way college
basketball set up November and December, you're jam packed with
like non conference game MTE. We're going out to like
someplace to play three games in four days. Then we
picked up a bunch of injuries, and now we've got
to nurse these guys back to hell. So like, I
don't put a ton of stock into that, like ear
early January result, like New Year's Day weekend result. And
it's like if you can get over the fact that
the Beach won the first meeting, and you know cal Poly,
yes they are like almost playing so good right now
that at some point they probably have a bad game.
I think you gotta love cal Poly to like like that.
That's this number should probably be eight and a half.
I was just looking at my numbers. I think I'm
closer to like eight eight and a half. I have
to like do the like the math. Of course I
still do like everything by hand, stuck in a different
century here, Rob, But like you know, I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I can't. I cannot make a case for long Beach date.
I have.
Speaker 1: There is nothing I can say that would make a
case for Long Beach Date other than you think like
it's a conspiracy that cal Poly keeps winning games.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.
Speaker 1: It would be cal Poly your past Richie action, says
T and v. I think that's Trigg and Vino. Great
Night four of us for us in a classic bounce
back spot. Yeah, Rob and I did not start the
week off the way we would have liked to, but
we both came through last night and I'm hoping we
both do it again. Rob, I will if you want
to throw a game out there, if you know something
you want to talk about, I'll give you the floor here.
Mostly because my computer is just I don't know why
I keep clicking.
Speaker 2: On the wrong thing.
Speaker 1: I'm having a rough day here, so rather than me
go through the chat, do you have an idea of
where you might want to go with the parlay?
Speaker 4: I do, but I have too many ideas to tell
you that which one I want to settle? Lot, I'm
kind of like you, and the fact that and I
keep scrolling up and down here to see new numbers
that are coming up. And by the way, for those
that are on the eleven o'clock game, this total is
bouncing all.
Speaker 3: Over the place.
Speaker 4: Charleston's been pushed to five and a half now the
total has come back down off of that forty to
thirty eight and a half. In some instances, thirty nine
and a half seems to be a settling point here,
so little bit of action as that.
Speaker 3: We lead to tip off in that game.
Speaker 2: I got one.
Speaker 3: I got one.
Speaker 2: I'll give you a second to think.
Speaker 1: So I have I have organized a I guess I'm
having my own little meet and greet in Jacksonville, Florida tonight.
Rob shout out Stan, He's coming to the game. He's
bringing a friend. Someone else said they they would go
and if you want so quick announcement and then we'll
talk about this game because I'm actually like kind of
fascinated about this game right now and we both have
had some results here. So I am going to the
North Florida game tonight Jacksonville, Florida, and if you want
to join me, let me know DM me on Twitter.
That is that is how you can get a hold
of me. So if you if you want to go,
dm me on Twitter. This is gonna be Florida Gulf
Coast against North Florida. We're gonna be at the unf
Arena tonight in Jacksonville, a little trig fol court press
meet and Greek. I've already got two people coming and Rob,
I want to talk about this game because A I'm
interested in it. We're going and b or I'm going
and B you know Florida Golf Coast. My guy Pat Chambers.
He was the basketball coach at Boston University when my
sister was an athlete there, and I really I love
those BU teams were awesome.
Speaker 2: They went to the NCAA Tournament. Believe they lost to Kansas.
Speaker 1: I've always been like a Pat Chambers guy, Like I
got to be honest as a guy that's like Pat
Chambers throughout his career, I thought he would have like
I thought he was going to be like running this
league by this point, and the fact that he hasn't,
it's like a little bit concerning.
Speaker 2: Like Florida Golf Coast.
Speaker 1: I don't really think they've been great since he's been there,
which is just odd to me because I always thought
they had like resources that were better than most of
this league. So on and so forth. But I digress
right there. The reason I want to talk about Florida
Golf Coast is because you and I both cashed against
them when they were without their best player, Jr. Cosseesneychesney
another name. I'll just continue to just ruin as we
do with this show. Rob Koschesney is back, and Florida
Golf Coast is one four straight. Now, he was not
overly effective in Florida Golf Coast most recent game, but
they still managed to beat Central Arkansas, who's had a
tremendous season and just turned around and knocked off Boston
p last night. So North Florida bad year for them,
transition year, they lost some of their coaching staff. The
Birds of Trey sadly are no longer in Jacksonville. They're
gonna have to like reassess the situation there. But what
do you think about Florida Golf Coast Because they've now
won four straight and they've looked pretty good. This is
another one where it's like I kind of think Florida
Golf Coast is just gonna ma this team tonight.
Speaker 2: So where are you at, Florida Golf Coast, North Florida.
Speaker 4: Well, I totally agree with Florida Gulf Coast with Casssney
back in the lineup and the fact that North Florida
is not going to provide a lot of resistance on
a defensive end, right, So you start combining Florida Golf Coast,
which was you know in those Austin p games. Knowing
what we know now, Adam playing without him and I
think the games you're referring to was the one against
Austin P at least, that's yeah.
Speaker 2: And then I think you.
Speaker 1: I think I had Austin P and you had Lipscumb
back to back days, and those are two very good
basketball teams.
Speaker 4: Exactly, and they you know, you're not going to show
your best against those two teams without your best player.
But now you get to play bottom of the barrel
unf especially from the defensive perspective, and the.
Speaker 3: Offense is back playing pretty well.
Speaker 4: And I was gonna say this that even in those games,
even in that Austin P game, Florida Gulf Coast was
not terrible offensively in that game against Austin P. What
happened there was Austin P was better. They were just better.
You could see it on the floid. They were the
better team. They were the better team when it came
to scoring capability, et cetera, et cetera. So now you know,
fast forward to where we're at this point in time,
with the FGCU having all their guys back, including their
main guy, and you're playing a team that again shows
little resistance. I would almost correlate that into a potential
Florida Gulf Coast team total over number before I speak
too loudly. Number here, Finding these things in the rotation
always gets to be a bear.
Speaker 2: How come there's a lot of games the night there's.
Speaker 4: A but regardless, I can't. Yes, I did find the number. Okay,
Golf Coast is expected to get eighty two and a
half by odds makers. Eighty three against North Florida is
not all that difficult. Obviously, it's a high total for
a reason. I think that's mostly due to unf season
long results, which include allowing an awful lot of points.
And again, Gulf Coast might still be somewhat undervalued because
they played so long without because you know you're power rating.
Speaker 1: This was in.
Speaker 4: Effect for the previous game we were talking about to
cal Poly, where you were saying this game should be
eight and a.
Speaker 3: Half rather than five and a half.
Speaker 4: But I think the reason it wasn't eight and a
half is because cal Poll before this string had lost
eleven out of sixteen games. Power Raading comes down down, down, down, down,
and then it takes a while to go back up
up up, up up, and I feel like that's the
same with Gulf Coast here as far as what they're
expected to score, eighty two and a half to me
would seem very doable for them. And obviously, again North
Florida not the same scoring capability that they used to
have uncertain nights capable, but they're just not as consistent
or trustworthy. So for me, I couldn't agree more. I
would be on FGCU here. It looks like a you know,
it's funny too, I'm trying to think because they're located
in such different parts of this state, I don't believe
this is any type of rivalry between the two North
Florida soide.
Speaker 1: I think North Florida and Jacksonville are like in the
same city, so I think that would probably be more
of a regional rivalry for this league.
Speaker 3: And I feel like they are.
Speaker 4: A Sun teams from way back to because I remember
when my son went to Belmont was an a Sun
team and they played both of those squads. Anyway, veer
off course here, Florida Gulf Coast looks like the right
side Florida Gulf Coast team total could.
Speaker 3: Even I could even see that happening as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell you what my my number is.
Speaker 1: Well, again, I I don't play a ton of a Sun.
I think that I've really only played a couple of
a Sun sides this year. One of them was, you know,
kind of fading that because as the injury, which did
not take a rocket scientist to realize how important he
was to this team. But like I'm gonna go back
to your point, I do think because he missed a
window of time that maybe Florida Golf Coast still is
a little bit undervalued, you know, since he's been back,
and you know, he just came off of a dreadful game.
He had a really bad game last time out, one
for nine. He missed basically missed every shot he took
over six from three. You do not see this dude
have back to back games like that very often. This
is a guy that's leading the team and scoring, you know,
prior to that twenty against Bellerman nineteen against North Florida,
and he's actually had bad back to back games because
he didn't shoot the ball typically particularly well against Jacksonville either.
Speaker 2: So I think there'sna be a lot of points in
this game.
Speaker 1: I know the total is high, so I will I'm
gonna put this in the parlane. I'm gonna put Florida
Golf minus six, and I'm going to attach the minus
one twenty because I do see it starting to move. Finally,
this is one where my number is closer to nine,
so I will be rooting for the visitors. Hopefully the
North Florida folks are not that are probably gonna give
me the pass to this game or not watching the
show right now because I'm picking against their team. But
I do believe that there is just a pretty big
contrast between these two teams at this point, and for
Florida Gulf Coast, you know, they're trending in the right
direction where like they could still finish with a winning
record in league play and they would be a dangerous
four or five team. Like they're not that much worse
in my opinion when they're at full strength than like
the top teams in this league. Although I do really
like that Austin pe team quite a bit. But like
I'm talking about like two and three, Like I'm still
not totally sold on Central Arkansas. They're kind of having
like an insane season. So I am going to, yeah,
that's what I'm gonna do for my parlay. Like Florida
Gulf Coast minus six, and we'll attach minus one twenty juice.
These two teams they just got they played a couple
of weeks ago. FGCU won that game ninety to eighty one.
I wouldn't be surprised to see somewhat of a similar game.
So if you want an additional thought, I do like
the over there as well. All right, Rob Vino, do
you know now where you want to go for the parlay?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So many choices at him, so many choices. But how
about this one? How about big sky revenge tonight? Portland
State Montana State again, in the minds of guys like us,
could have been a feature game, top two teams in
the league. But Montana State has a little bit of
a revenge angle here, losing sixty three to fifty four
the first time to Portland State. And I'll tell you what,
it's a little bit of a thing of Portland State,
which seems to be running out of we can win
on defense only in this league. They've lost two of
their last three. They've been a ridiculously bad offensive team
all season long that has survived on the strength of
their league leading defense. But now you're gonna play Montana State,
who's a superior offensive team. They're on their home floor,
and Montana State has been upper half of this conference
all season long on the defensive side as well, so
there's not a huge disparity between the two on the
defensive end. For Montana State first time around, five of
twenty five from three point range twenty percent against Portland State.
Have to believe that Montana State, which has the second
best three point percentage in Big Sky Play, ups those numbers,
ups that number here at home, they make a few
more threes two and a half should be relatively easy
to cover.
Speaker 3: And again, I.
Speaker 4: Just one of the main things here is is the
fact that as I watched this season go on for
Portland State, it just looks like second time around with
some of these teams, Adam, because this is a conference
where you do play twice second time around.
Speaker 3: This defense only stuff just isn't working.
Speaker 4: They can't generate enough scoring to win as often as
they were winning earlier. Like I said, they've lost two
of the last three, and to me, Montana State more
than capable of generating points. You give me the home floor,
you give me some revenge, you give me the better offense.
A three point shooting night that was miserable the first time,
but you have the second best three point shooting team
in the league play on your side here. I thought
the number was a little bit short. And again it
could be that Portland State has built up so much
equity and power ratings throughout the season that they just
haven't pushed down the way I think they should be
pushed down at this point in time when you play
defense the way Portland State has, when you have to
win with defense the way Portland State has, you know,
I'll use your comparison. It's not the same. Definitely, not
for the same reason. But you have said before that
Brian Earls teams run out of leg strength because of
the way he asks them to play. When you have
to dig in on defense constantly, and you get to
February twenty sixth a couple games left in conference play,
and all you've done is play defense.
Speaker 3: It takes a.
Speaker 4: Lot to play defense. And I just wonder if there's
some fatigue sitting in on Portland State here. I'm gonna
take Montana State minus to two and a half. Figure
they win this one by three, and they won't. You know,
it's not really for conference supremacy because Portland State has
such a big lead, and you could almost, if you
wanted to, you could almost include that in the handicap
by saying, you know what, Portland State's got a three
game lead. You know if we lose here, it doesn't
really matter to Montana State. This game really matters. So
that's the side I'm on here, Bobcats plus or excuse
me minus two and a half in Home Revenge, Big
Sky Home Revenge.
Speaker 3: We gotta love that.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw an interesting stat that I just dug
up at you, and I think sort of speaks to
like what you're saying about Portland State this time around.
Speaker 2: Second time around.
Speaker 1: In the Big Sky, they only have four players on
the roster that play more than seventeen minutes a game.
Think about that for a second. They have four players
on the roster that play more than seventeen minutes per game.
It's Mina who's like they're sort of like stud Big.
Speaker 2: Miller Henderson Kenzie.
Speaker 1: They play essentially the whole game, and then it's almost
like it's almost like they have to try to steal
some minutes because they're just not deep. Like if you
look like they really don't play like they really have
four starters is really what it comes down to. They
do not have any sort of depth, and they play
the same guys all game, every game, like those four
rarely leave the floor. So, you know, you talk about
getting in a conference season, Big Sky got some altitude
in that league, some tricky travel. You're going from Portland,
You're going down to flag Staff. Sometimes you got to
go to to you know, Cheney, Washington, right, Like, there's
just some uh, some tricky travel league.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: And so you gotta wonder if that's you know, you're
running the same five guys out there every game.
Speaker 2: You have to wonder if that's caught up with them
a little bit.
Speaker 1: Because yeah, you look at like the last few games,
they just have not look like the team that like
came out and simply couldn't lose for like a good
portion of like, you know, January. I think they ran
the table almost in January until they finally lost that
game to Montana. So yeah, I think you've got a
probably got something here with Montana State. Very tough to
get to the finish line when you're playing five guys
a game or or or and I'll expound upon that
to just hammer the point home. When you're playing basically
you're starting five, but then whoever you got, whoever's coming
in as the six man, is really not giving you anything. Right, Like,
teams can get away with playing a seven man rotation,
but typically though, the six and seven have got to
like do something. And I feel like on Portland State
it's pretty much four guys that do everything and then
whoever else is out there is a is a is
just there to fill out the five man rotation.
Speaker 2: So I think, uh, I think we might have a
winner here. Rob. Let's keep it a two teamer.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna ensure me and Stan and whoever else wants
to go to the game is gonna ensure that Florida
Golf Coast covers that six, and we're gonna put that
with a minus one twenty because it's actually moved to
six and a half now, So we'll put that Florida
Golf Coast six minus one twenty and we're gonna parlay
that with Montana State minus two and a half. I
guess we gotta walk before we can run here, So
let's see if we can hit the two team or
tonight maybe we'll go two team or tonight two team
or tomorrow and then we'll cut well, we'll come back
with a three teamer with Kelly on Saturday. But yeah,
let's let's get that done. And again, check out our
joint package on the page. I'm probably gonna fire like
a couple within the next half hour, So whether one
becomes a five percent or not is going to hinge
on a text I'm waiting for, so stay tuned. But yeah,
we great day for Rob and I yesterday seven and
zero on the joint package. So we would love to
have you on today and I'd love to meet you guys.
So if you happen to be in the Jacksonville area
and you want to come to the game, shoot me
a DM and we'll get you out to North Florida
Florida Golf Coast to grind the parlay in person tonight,
Rob little boots on the ground action right there in
the parlay. All right, guys, that is the hour mark.
We appreciate you tuning in as always, and we will
see you guys in the morning for more full court press.
Speaker 2: Good luck today everyone,