Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex. It's Saturday, July nineteenth, twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Here's the simple thesis for today. The stable coin rule
Speaker 1: vacuum is the hidden driver of today's market, and until
Speaker 1: agencies publish a deadline, liquidity stays trapped. By the end
Speaker 1: of this episode, you'll know why this mess is the
Speaker 1: story under everything else. And you know what, if you've
Speaker 1: been confused by all the Genius Act headlines, you're not alone.
Speaker 1: We'll cut through it together. But first, a quick word
Speaker 1: from our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. US agencies
Speaker 1: miss the Genius Act rule deadline. And here's the thing.
Speaker 1: It's actually kind of surprising how quiet the market's been
Speaker 1: about it. Tether now faces a two year US platform
Speaker 1: clock with no clear compliance rules in sight. Tether is
Speaker 1: basically the plumbing for most crypto trades right. A force
Speaker 1: D listing would be the difference between a leaky pipe
Speaker 1: and no water at all. The rules that define compliance
Speaker 1: don't exist yet, so it's a deadline with no finish
Speaker 1: line painted. The takeaway is that liquidity rails have no
Speaker 1: legal base right, which means every trade is happening on
Speaker 1: shaky ground. Markets were pretty quiet today, but don't let
Speaker 1: that fool you. Bitcoin sitting near sixty four thousand, basically flat.
Speaker 1: Ethereum's around eighteen hundred, also flat. Total market cap is
Speaker 1: about two point three trillion, down just a fraction. Fear
Speaker 1: and greed ticked up three points to twenty eight still
Speaker 1: in fear. Stable coin supply barely grew just a tenth
Speaker 1: of a percent in twenty four hours. The macro regime
Speaker 1: is a bear market, so this calm isn't a green light.
Speaker 1: Liquidity isn't expanding, which means any bounce needs real inflows
Speaker 1: to actually stick. Derivatives is the strongest narrative today, up
Speaker 1: only a little over twenty four hours. Awe network is
Speaker 1: the top coin in that sector, up a few percent
Speaker 1: over twenty four hours. It is a mixed selective picture.
Speaker 1: The magnificent seven those megacap us tech stocks moved up
Speaker 1: about one percent this week. Here's my take. In this
Speaker 1: bear market regime, that's more of a trap than a
Speaker 1: leading indicator. Bitcoin and Ethereum need to confirm that risk
Speaker 1: on move or they'll look even weaker. If crypto lags
Speaker 1: when tech leads, it's actually a bad sign about relative risk. Appetite.
Speaker 1: We're seeing demand rotate without conviction, which means this tech
Speaker 1: rally is probably a liquidity trap for unsuspecting crypto bulls.
Speaker 1: The Genius Act just turned one year old. The headline's cute,
Speaker 1: but the details matter way more than the birthday. The
Speaker 1: market read stays bearish until fresh volume shows up, plain
Speaker 1: and simple. Michael Saylor says the new Bitcoin cleanup plan
Speaker 1: BIP one one zero, that's a proposed code upgrade, is
Speaker 1: a bad idea with one hundred and ten reasons. Bitcoin's
Speaker 1: loudest bull fought a protocol change meant to clean up
Speaker 1: the chain. It's like the gym owner opposing a mop
Speaker 1: sailor wants Bitcoin messy and neutral, not tidy for regulators.
Speaker 1: This split shows the base layer still argues about what
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is actually for, which means fundamental governance is still unresolved.
Speaker 1: France ordered internet providers to block poly market ahead of
Speaker 1: the World Cup final. Prediction markets are now geo blocked
Speaker 1: by a major EU state, not just the US. That's
Speaker 1: a gambling regulator treating polymarket like an unlicensed casino, which
Speaker 1: means the pushback is global and the product faces a
Speaker 1: map of regulatory walls. Kraken says simpler options can unlock
Speaker 1: crypto's next derivatives market. Crypto derivatives are still too complex
Speaker 1: for most retail traders. Kracken wants to package them like
Speaker 1: a normal call option, a contract giving the right to
Speaker 1: buy at a set price, not a leverage trap. Derivatives
Speaker 1: and perpetuums are top gaining themes this week, so demand
Speaker 1: is there if the rapper is clean, which means retail
Speaker 1: wants access without getting wrecked. Quick hits uniswap governance votes
Speaker 1: on V four fees and robinhood chain expansion. Up Bit
Speaker 1: parent Dunamu faces South Korean sanctions after a thirty six
Speaker 1: million dollar hack. Bitcoin Japan tapped a fund for a
Speaker 1: sixty million rays to finally buy bitcoined. Bank of America
Speaker 1: tapped new leaders to bridge crypto, AI and traditional finance.
Speaker 1: Kasperski found malware targeting crypto investors, so treat unknown software
Speaker 1: as hostile. All right, before we get into the risks,
Speaker 1: quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about what to watch for. Sentiment is stuck in fear
Speaker 1: at twenty eight with a bear market regime, so buyers
Speaker 1: are cautious and rallies get sold unless fresh inflows show
Speaker 1: stable coin rules are unwritten and Tether faces that two
Speaker 1: year platform clock, which means liquidity rails have no clear
Speaker 1: legal The synthesis is simple, rules are missing and sentiment
Speaker 1: is weak, so Crypto's writing uncertain stable coin rails with
Speaker 1: no fresh buyers. That only changes if agencies publish draft
Speaker 1: stable coin rules in thirty days and fear and greed
Speaker 1: climbs above forty. The top thing to watch is whether
Speaker 1: Tether's shaff stable coin supply drops more than two points
Speaker 1: in the next month. Next week, watch for follow through
Speaker 1: on the Genius Acts one year mark. Crypto's down slightly,
Speaker 1: so any regulatory news needs fresh volume to actually stick.
Speaker 1: The real catalyst is whether the SEC and CFTC release
Speaker 1: draft stable coin rules by mid August, because that dictates
Speaker 1: Tether's platform survival. Don't expecting any big moves until we
Speaker 1: see those draft rules, which means prepare for more of
Speaker 1: the same choppy rangebound action. By the way, if you
Speaker 1: want the full written breakdown, check out our newsletter at
Speaker 1: tokenmetrics dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, see you next time,