Speaker 1: All right, welcome in to the best betting show ever
on the Wednesday, also known as the Calm before the Storm.
Joe and are alongside Art to Caesar, Double r one
l Steve Merrill. He'll be joining us a little bit later.
We've got updates galore for you here. We also have
some best bets today, great college basketball card, great NBA card,
the final big night of the NHL before we get
to the Olympics, and Art before we dive into that.
Speaking of the Olympics, it's an interesting time of year, right,
We're about to say goodbye to football coming up on Sunday.
But you and I were just laughing. Pitchers and catchers
are reporting in seven days, which means Major League Baseball
is just around the corner. The Olympics. I don't know
what kind of action you guys get at the Westgate there.
I know there's total gold medals, total metal count seems
to be something popular among the public looking that way here.
But what is coming up here in the foreseeable future.
We all know about March Madness, but it feels like
we got a lot of other things happening over the
next month or so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we definitely do Obviously college basketball will take you know,
it'll be front and center. I mean, obviously you have
conference tournaments coming up leading into March Madness. There's a
bunch of conference tournaments that are actually in Vegas, so
there's a real good buzz in town when that happens.
You know, NBA will go on their All Star break,
They'll be all for a week, like you said, NHL
off for a handful of weeks here, So yeah, it
really starts to become We start to look towards spring,
we start to get geared up for the playoffs in
the big sports. You mentioned baseball. We put up our
win totals and make the playoffs yesterday, So we try
to have that available for Super Bowl weekend, figuring there's
gonna be a ton of people in town, a ton
of people looking to bet some major League baseball stuff.
Speaker 3: So that's why we put that up this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love that baseball is here. We're all baseball classics.
Speaker 1: So we got a lot going on here with the
show and in the betting world over the next month.
Just because football goes away art doesn't mean that the
profits have to stop.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: Still a lot of ways to get some action including
the waste Management open this week. I would imagine, like
you do every year, the whole cross sports you know,
parlays and those things happening, everything tied in to the
big game on Sunday, and the waste Management opened not
and actually not a bad way to look at it too,
if you can get any action on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, the crossboard props have I want
to say, they've died down a little bit. They aren't
as popular as they were maybe five ten years ago,
but we still have a nice little sheet or two
on that. Try to connect as much as we can to.
Like you said, the waste open, the NBA a little
bit of NA so we try to incorporate as much
as we can on that. And those are ones that
I think people just try to have a lot more
fun with. Even even the sharps don't really bet those shows,
you know, it's not like it's a real sharp market
for that. So those are more talking points I would say.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and here it is, keep it simple for you,
Scottie Scheffler, with whoever you like to win the game? Done, Okay,
cash the ticket, it's good, it's good to go. All right,
There's no point even discussing it here. All right, let's
talk about the Super Bowl moves if any so far?
Art you still figure you're about a day or so
away from really start. I don't necessarily the volume, I
guess more than anything else, right, you're gonna really start
to see the amount of bets pick up. But as
far as the big you know, the six figure wagers,
the kinds of bets that move these lines here, still
what a couple of days away?
Speaker 4: You think?
Speaker 2: Still a couple of days. So wait, don't get me wrong.
We'll get some stuff tomorrow from the public, you know.
But I think once you hit Friday, people have gotten
into town. You start to see a little bit of
buzz in the sports book, people lining up, people signing
up for the app, people trying to, you know, figure
out what's going on with the big game. That's really
going to hit Friday. I would say, Friday afternoon you'll
really start to rock and roll. That bet ticker will
be on fire with bets left and right. And you're right,
I mean, listen, the fifty hundred thousand dollars bet coming
off the street could come at any time, It could
come today. It just you know, depends when that person
feels they want to come in and make the bet.
As I mentioned yesterday, we're minus five forty five and
a half, still the highest.
Speaker 3: Like I said, I've.
Speaker 2: Seen on our money line plus two dollars if you
want to take a shot with New England there. But
really hasn't been much movement here over these last couple
of days side in total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting because I'm still seeing art. We're still
seeing I'm seeing more foreign and a halfs across the
board than we did yesterday.
Speaker 4: Still a handful of fives.
Speaker 1: Like you guys at the West Gate seeing a lot
more forty fives too than we did yesterday across the board.
Speaker 4: How regional do you think this is? Too? Art?
Speaker 1: Because I gotta imagine the East Coast sports books probably
shaded a little closer to New England because they got
to figure that that's where the money is coming in,
and maybe, you know, you guys on the west side
here a little more shaded towards Seattle. Is there a
big regional difference you think in this game with these numbers?
Speaker 5: There could be?
Speaker 2: And I think there where you're probably gonna find that
is the money line, you know, maybe a lot lower
you know, the plus one eighties plus one eighty fives
on New England, and like I said, we're sitting two dollars.
That's a big difference. You know, fifteen to twenty cents
on a money line is a huge difference. So maybe
that's some you know, there's something to that. Like I
said when I talked about the money line yesterday, for us,
it was just a price discovery thing.
Speaker 3: What is going to be the high point? And nobody
has taken that yet.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Do we even get higher? Do we dare go to
fifty two ten? I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think we'll see over these next couple
of days what happens. Obviously, too, we have to monitor
the market. Of course, we have to worry about the
bets that are coming in. But we don't want to be,
you know, sitting there at an astronomical number that no
one else is at and give people, you know, a
chance to kind of buy off a number or whatever
the case may be. So we don't want to be
crazy where we're sitting there at plus two twenty and
everyone's at plus one to eighty and obviously the bets
will dictate that and kind of you know what our
position is, but really hasn't been much yet.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: No, And would you say it's still one percentage of
Seattle tickets to New England tickets right now?
Speaker 4: What do you think you're seeing.
Speaker 2: Still five six to one? I mean Seattle, Yeah, Seattle
is still there. I think the one thing that I've noticed,
and maybe early we thought it wouldn't be this way.
Speaker 4: We kind of thought.
Speaker 2: Maybe New England would be a little bit sharp, but
we haven't seen that yet. It feels like the sharp
and the public are both lining up on Seattle. It
feels that way. I'm not saying it's one hundred percent
that yet, and you know, when we do our show Friday,
kind of maybe have a little bit more grasp of
what's going on as far as that goes. But it
just feels that way to me because you know, we're
sitting here at five and once again, these are dead numbers.
You know, what's the really the difference between four.
Speaker 3: And a half five five and a half.
Speaker 2: But you know, like you said, we're one of the
only fives out there, and we really haven't had many
people who we respect come and grab that five or
come and grab the plus two dollars on the money line.
So it makes me think maybe New England's not going
to be the sharp side.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's it's interesting.
Speaker 1: I think the next couple of days are gonna tell
us everything we need to know, but I'll still stand
by it hard. I think if you're thinking over in this,
I wouldn't wait because I don't see this going down,
Like I don't see you getting a better number here.
But if you hold off, I think forty five is
the low level. And I think if you think that
we're getting some points in this game, which we very
well could art, I mean, it's not out.
Speaker 4: Of the round.
Speaker 1: We just watched the Rams light up this Seattle defense,
and you know no reason to think that that Seattle
can't have success offensively either. So I don't know I
would jump on the over now. I don't know that
i'd wait any longer. But at the same time, if
I'm looking at an under, I can probably afford to
wait a couple of days at least until you get
that big push from the public.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely, I mean, you know our total, that's
the one that's really moved open. Forty six and a half,
not as low as forty five. Now we're forty five.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 4: I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna get closer to our opening number
by kickoffs. If you really like the under, maybe just
wait till round kickoff an hour before.
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna see forty six again. Maybe even Eh, yeah.
Speaker 1: I agree, I think there's still some opportunities, So tune
in guys here. Of course, Art will be back tomorrow
and Friday. We'll give you everything you need to know
here about what the odds moving is. If Art even
whiffs a bit of a line move, he's gonna let
you He's gonna let you know about it here first.
So go ahead and hit that like button, hit that
subscribe button. Guys, make sure you drop your favorite props
in the comments section. If you want to know what
kind of action Art is getting on any of these,
go ahead and drop them in here, Art, because no
doubt you gave a handful of them yesterday, These big
prop moves, these big moves here by, and you're saying
a lot of sharps are so far here in the
prop betting market, So lay it out for us.
Speaker 4: What kind of other props are we looking at here
on the move.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely everything I gave out yesterday, today, Thursday, and
Friday will be all sharp action. Listen, we know the
public's gonna dominate these props and they'll bet against all
the sharp stuff. But that's fine. We'll find booking to
the sharp action. Kenneth Walker under seven and a half
yards on his first catch. They took under minus one
thirty Seattle players to have a catch under six and
a half minus one fifty. The sacks both teams individually,
New England under two and a half sacks minus one
forty they took over Seattle sacks over three and a
half plus one thirty Matt Collins. They bet twice under
twenty nine and a half under twenty seven and a
half receiving yards. And this has gotta be my favorite
one because the sharp spent it twice and the numbers hilarious.
Jake Bobo under half a yard receiving they laid under
minus one forty and laid one sixty, basically saying the
guy's not gonna have a catch or anything in the game.
I mean, obviously, I guess he could have a catch
for negative one yards, but it was hit twice at
minus one forty and minus one sixty. I think sitting
at half a yard is that's one of my favorite.
Speaker 1: I love that I didn't even know he was still
in the league. That is fantastic, Jake Bobo, All right,
let me ask you this because I saw in the
comment section the last couple of days. You know, we've
talked about what some of these classic spots for prop bets,
the classic prop bets. Every year we talked about over
or under right, the shortest touchdown?
Speaker 4: Right? Was it over a yard and a half? Under
a yard and a half. And you know.
Speaker 1: That bet has become very popular among the public over
the last couple of years. Hence the minus one sixty
right that you are looking at right now, I mean
that that was never minus one sixty years ago, but
now it's become extremely popular. What about the amount of
people to throw a pass in the game at two
and a half?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 1: We've gotten this has also become art right, pretty popular
over the last couple of years. You know, it hit
last year just because picket came in and relief because
the game was such a blowout, But right, I mean
so and then and it hit over two and a
half last year?
Speaker 4: What is that now? Has that become also a very
public bet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Picket coming in and doing that killed us
because we needed we needed.
Speaker 4: To be under there.
Speaker 3: Yeah we did.
Speaker 2: Now listen, when you when you deal almost five hundred props,
not one prop is gonna you know, threw the day
for you.
Speaker 3: But listen, we remember it because we were taking this
stupid pickert coming in and doing this.
Speaker 2: But yeah, you're right, that's a huge one because you
know every year that number is gonna be two and
a half. Yes, it's a two and a half number,
And it just depends what's your clientele gonna do with
the number. Are they gonna bet it over, They're gonna
bet it under, So you'll see extreme juice to either
side depending on how it gets bet. Obviously, you're always
gonna have you know, is there a wide receiver pass,
is there a running back pass? And then you have
what you had last year? Is there a blowout? Does
a quarterback get hurt? And someone got to come in?
So that two and a half number is such a
fun neat numbered deal because you get varying opinions and
it gets bet on both sides.
Speaker 3: For the most part.
Speaker 1: I would just like to remind people that I believe
there's somebody related in this game that was part of
a trick play that scored a touchdown when he was
oh ye have Vrabel? Wasn't he part of a play
in fact in which all sorts of shenanigans happened with
the Patriots and he ends up getting a touchdown and
throwing the touchdown. So do not be shocked if Rabel's
got a little something up his sleeve there and we
get an over two and a half people throwing an
actual pass in this game.
Speaker 4: Another popular one art.
Speaker 1: I gotta ask you about, and this one's become really
popular over the last couple of years. The game to
be tied after zero zero at any point, Right, that's
another one. Now, last year it was twenty four to nothing,
and while that there went that bet that prop had
got blown up.
Speaker 4: But over the years that that seems to be.
Speaker 1: You know, this is gonna be one of the biggest
spread games that we have seen in the Super Bowl
since I believe it was Pittsburgh and Arizona which landed
at seven and Pittsburgh didn't.
Speaker 4: Cover that line either. But you know, the.
Speaker 1: Market thinks this is gonna be very one sided. I'm
wondering if that bet correlates one way or the other
where people are like, nope, it's pretty much like we
got last year. It's gonna be you know, it's gonna
be seventeen to nothing. They're never gonna be tied after
zero zero.
Speaker 2: That is another very popular and a prop that sees
really good two way action. Now most of them see
pretty good two way action. It's rare that you're really
buried on one side of a prop. But you're right, Joe,
I mean, talk about a big spread, and even a
team covering a big spread. I don't think a few
or more favorite has covered since the Colts, Yeah, against
the Bears. That's twenty years ago, you know, and it
feels like these last handful of years, all these spreads
have been pick them minus one, you know, minus one
and a half.
Speaker 3: They've basically been toss up games.
Speaker 2: So obviously we're living in a different a little bit
of different world where we're well over a field on
that game. But that game early, the sharps hit and
then you know, the public comes in and does what
they do with that brow.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gonna be fun though, That'll be because if
you think it's gonna be close. That's a pretty good one.
And there's more relations too with the tied at the
half and then Seattle wins or you know, the Patriot.
There's a lot of different combos in those props.
Speaker 4: That are great. So what are your favorite prop bets?
Speaker 1: Guys going into them dropping in the comments section for
us and we'll review them over the next couple of
days see if Art has any insights into those. While
we also got to get we got a huge college
basketball slate tonight. Love some of these games tonight on
the card are at the NBA. Also trade deadline yesterday. Boy,
that was fun. You got you got a lot of
i mean Harden now playing for the Calves who happened
to be playing the Clippers tonight, which is also interesting.
Speaker 4: So there's, you.
Speaker 1: Know, still a lot of people waiting to figure out
what happens with Giannis.
Speaker 4: Is he traded? Is he not? So still a lot
of uncertainty.
Speaker 1: But some great games here tonight and the final NHL
slate art before the Olympics, so that Olympic break. What
are you seeing anything in the book where you're seeing
some early money?
Speaker 2: Absolutely got it for all three sports. NHL ruins took
money overnight plus one twenty five, now plus one fifteen.
That's at Florida they're playing the Panthers NBA. They laid
minus one with the Wolves at Toronto now two and
a half. Took under the Celtic Rocket game two sixteen
now to thirteen. Took under in the thunder Spurs game
under two twenty six and a half now two twenty
two and a half, So a big move there. College
basketball VMI plus ten and a half at home against
Wafford now nine. They laid seven and a half with
Michigan State on the road at Minnesota now eight.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: Took plus one and a half with Saint Joe's at home.
They were a short dog against GW now pick them
and a couple of totals firm. In the East Tennessee
State they took over one forty three now one forty six,
and took a big under total under one seventy one
in the Oakland Cleveland State game now one sixty nine.
Speaker 1: I'm laughing here, bit I just gotta ask are we
at one eighty yet?
Speaker 4: With Alabama and Texas A and M.
Speaker 1: Because all I kept seeing was this thing being bet
overnight up, and I mean it was one seventy was
it one seventy one and a half? And now I'm
seeing close to what one seventy nine, one seventy eight
and a half? Uh, we had a one eighty at
this year? I can't, for I don't think we have.
Speaker 2: I think early in the season, Joe, when we had
who was the team?
Speaker 3: Are you Indianapolis?
Speaker 4: I you, yes, okay, and maybe one of them remember
their total?
Speaker 2: Their totals were whacked out correct, they were like they
were like almost one ninety.
Speaker 4: Yep, that's crazy, right, you know?
Speaker 2: And then and then I think people started to realize
that they were like a crazy fast paced first half
game and then like lost steam in the second half
because I remember putting up some second half totals where
you know, your second half total would be close to
like a hundred, and then you'd realize, like they score
like seventy points in the second half. So they were
the one who really has died down since that first
like I don't know, ten days of the season.
Speaker 4: Kind of crazy sec battle.
Speaker 1: At this point, we're still approaching one eighty h in
a spot because I tell you that the total for
the total for Alabama Florida this past week and was
bet up six or seven points before the tip, and
the only reason it went over was because Alabama is.
Speaker 4: Fouling late in the game for some reason.
Speaker 1: Down thirty, and then they're chucking up half court threes
and Florida drops one hundred. Autumn, if Alreda doesn't drop
one hundred on that game stays under. But tonight A
and M and Alabama is simply the highest total on
the board, it'll likely get to one hundred and eighty
points in that one as well. Is anybody running to
back the Knicks art yet in this spot or in
the future market your boys from New York who really
seem to have put it together here are this is?
Certainly it looks like whatever that player's only meeting was
seems to have worked wonders for the Knicks here lately.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, when we look at our Eastern Conference future book,
like Cleveland it is, it is, And Cleveland's a team
now obviously they just made the trade, but their team
that people have stopped betting. Obviously, people if they got
on Detroit early, they were lucky to get really good numbers,
but now no value in Detroit anymore.
Speaker 3: Knicks always take money.
Speaker 2: And you know, we had mentioned I don't know, maybe
six weeks ago about maybe the value on Boston and
Boston always takes money as well.
Speaker 3: So it's kind of that.
Speaker 2: Cluster of teams that have taken the bulk of the
money to win the East. And they're obviously very popular
too in the win the whole thing, you know, win
the NBA Championship future market. But yeah, I look at
a team like the Knicks where we're gonna have liability
on them regardless. They're kind of like the Lakers, not
as popular, but you know, I mean every year, even now,
they're still betting the Lakers at fifty to one. I mean,
the Lakers take money regardless of who's on the team.
Speaker 3: It's the it's the Lakers. They bet the uniform.
Speaker 2: And every year, if you're a sportsbook and you have customers,
you're gonna have liability on the Lakers to win.
Speaker 4: The championship always.
Speaker 2: It's just the way that every year, it doesn't matter
if you know, if you're dealing them at four to one,
you're dealing them at fifty to one, you're going to
have liability on that team to win the NBA championship.
Speaker 1: The by low cell high aspect is crazy with some
of these teams here where there are especially coming out
of the West too, where it's so yeah, dominant across
you know, any one with OKC being the favorite, any
one of the top fourteen. You know, Denver is on
a couple of game losing street. But you think Denver
is not going to be a problem for OKAC or
anybody else.
Speaker 4: I mean, you go down the list.
Speaker 1: Thank goodness, everyone thinks okay C's gonna win the championship
for the next twenty years, but you know there is
a good chance somebody is going to take them down.
I think Boston also, you're probably seeing a lot of
love in the mar right, it's another one of those
teams given the recent history that are you're always going
to have liability on them in a future market too.
Speaker 2: No, you're always gonna have liability in Boston, There's no
doubt about it. They're always going to be in that
little cluster of maybe three, four or five teams. But
you know, get back to Denver, Joe, I think there's
probably still value on Denver. Denver to me seems like
if there's one team in the West I'm gonna trust
to really push Okac and to probably beat Oka. See
it's that team. Yeah, I mean, you know, the Spurs
are probably a year away. I don't know if I
trust Houston. You know, Minnesota, Okay, but it's Denver. They
have the best players. So why can't they beat Oklahoma
City in the seven game series?
Speaker 4: They can? They pushed them last year.
Speaker 1: I'm with ya, and I still think and now that
they you know, they just got them back, they still.
Speaker 4: Don't have Aaron Gordon.
Speaker 1: So yeah, by low Sell high right now might be
a good by low point here on the Denver Nuggets.
All right, Speaking of the Nuggets, I had them last
night getting I believe it was six, five and a
half six in that game last night against Detroit, and
then they they turned the ball over at three times
in the final thirty seconds and gave Detroit ten three points.
And I wanted to scream, But hell of a second
half last night. There art also hell of a game
by my pick there for the parlay of the day yesterday,
I told you I didn't understand the line movement in
the Sixers Golden State game with Steph Curry being out
and everyone was betting it as if Steph Curry is
entire family, like he had been cloned, and it was
gonna be six Steph Curry's playing Philip. I didn't understand
what the hell that line was doing, But Philly wins
my double digits. Anyway, that was our half of the
parlay of the day yesterday. Got a lot of choices
on the board here today, Art, what is one of
the ones you're looking at.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to the NHL and I'm gonna take
Winnipeg got home. Winnipeg's at home against Montreal. It's a
pick up minus one oh five minus one ten basically.
And listen, you know this is a lot of teams
last game because I believe there are some NHL games tomorrow.
Ye if I'm not mistaken, so is this is probably
most teams last games tonight. And I think Winnipeg before
the break gets it done at home.
Speaker 1: Oh all right, So I actually I don't hate that
at all, Art. I also don't hate the idea here.
And it's a tough spot for both Denver and New
York here, but it feels like maybe an under could
be in play here tonight. The Knicks, outside of beating
up on Washington last night, Art, they had been pretty
good at the under, not giving up a whole lot
of points because why committed to the defense to the
end here Denver. That was a lot of energy they
gave out yesterday there against that Detroit team. Feels like
this could be a lower scoring game. The Knicks have
owned Denver by the way, Art, it feels like over
the last couple of seasons, and why because they were
able to slow them down. I don't think we're getting
the two twenty four and a half. I'm looking at
the under with the Knicks and Denver here tonight, Art,
and you, my friend, got a lot going on for
the rest of the week here. But the important thing
is we get to talk baseball sooner rather than later.
Speaker 4: So will you have you'll.
Speaker 1: Have some baseball win totals and things for us moving forward?
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I said we put out to make the
playoffs and our season win totals yesterday. You know, I
think by Friday, you know, we have a couple of
days of shelf life. If there are some major moves,
some sharp stuff that I see over these next couple
of days, on Friday, we'll have like a little MLB
thing we'll talk about it. We'll throw out a couple
of teams seen some that have seen some support early
or you know, whatever the.
Speaker 3: Case may be, and we'll talk a little baseball Friday.
Speaker 1: I cannot wait, Art, and I am going to be
at that Panther and Bruins game tonight.
Speaker 4: Nice, and I'm gonna be in the box.
Speaker 1: Remember in the playoffs last season where that that kid
took a shirt off and like he was a rally crow.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the bar.
Speaker 1: I'll be right in between both benches, Art, so I'll
be the one that says f Boston on. It should
be a lot of fun. We're gonna be very popular
in that era. It should be a good time. But Art,
hopefully I'll be back in one piece at tomorrow. And
you're telling me the Sharps are already betting the Bruins,
which is not making me happy at all. But we'll
see you tomorrow. Man, still countdown has begun. The calm
before the storm always a pleasure, Art, enjoy your day,
my man.
Speaker 4: We'll talk to you again tomorrow.
Speaker 3: Joe, see you boys tomorrow, all right, Art.
Speaker 1: To caes are always a pleasure. But you guys know
what time it is I teased it earlier. It's double R.
It's one L. It's Steve Merrill in the house to
finish up the show with us here today, and Meryll,
we got well, we got one hockey, we got one NBA.
Speaker 4: We need one college game.
Speaker 1: If you'd like to partake in our parlay of the day.
Speaker 4: What are you looking at here today? Man?
Speaker 5: Yeah, we'll go one of the spotlight nine o'clock Eastern games.
I'm gonna give you two free nine o'clock Eastern TV
games in a moment in the college basketball breakdown. But
I'm gonna use a different one here for the parlay pick.
And that's the Utah Utes game number seven forty four
at home against Arizona State. Two teams on extended losing runs,
two teams that are struggling. But I like the altitude
edge and the home court edge for Utah They would
open around. Pick them there now minus one, straight up
win situation. Still, I like the Utes at home tonight,
Utah Utes minus one in college hoops.
Speaker 1: Ooh, the utah Utes. Little Birdie told me you might
be straying my alma mata coming up. But that's all right,
William and Mary, you got a pretty big game coming
up tomorrow, Merrill. Just remember it goes around comes around. Here,
my friend, and listen, we got some breaking news across
the board in the NBA here before we talk about
some of these best bets today. Number one, I'm seeing
SGA has just been ruled out indefinitely with it was
an oblique injury. It's saying abdominal something along those lines.
And of course, let the overreactions begin, Merrill, because now
I am seeing San Antonio as a four point favorite.
They were a two point dog and now they are
a four point favorite on the news of SGA being out,
And of course everybody's leftovers apparently go to the Washington Wizards.
Anthony Davis four thousand draft picks, a lot of players
nobody's heard of swapping hands there, but he will no
longer be Dallas's problem, and I think that's a good
thing there, Meryl.
Speaker 5: Yes, she had what like a finger injury magic last night.
Now it's oblique or something, but yeah, big move there.
They went from a two point favorite for a four
point dog. And as you know, you know, normally you
play the short handed teams. Attention to that matchup is
it's like the fifth time they've played this season, because
they played in the playoff game as well, or the
tournament game, whatever it's called in San Antonio. Hand okay,
see two of their first three losses earlier this year,
they match up really well against them, so we'll see
if they still, you know, coming a little bit complacent.
One thing I noticed in those losses earlier this year
is that they shot terrible from three point range. I
think SGA was like three for seventeen combined in a
couple games. So hard to say it's addition by subtraction
when you're losing the MVP, but we do often see
see him step up in this spot and like you said, Joe,
you're getting a full touchdown and line value.
Speaker 1: Now, we had a big time, guys, and don't forget
you know, we saw this yesterday last night, Merril, which
was kind of laughable. My best bet on the show
yesterday was somebody please explain to me how we knew
Steph Curry wasn't playing and yet Golden State got bet
up to five five and a half point favorite at tip.
We knew Embde likely wasn't going to second of a
back to back. You know, I got the whole three
games and four nights thing. But my goodness, that the
overreaction to the news. Sometimes in the NBA, there is
just no better edge. Just waiting to see which guy
gets hurt and gets ruled out and just go the
other way, maryl. It seems to be a winning proposition
every year in the association, and.
Speaker 5: We talk about it all the time, and it works
best in that first game scenario. And the reason it
works is because it is kind of last minute, Like
you're saying, teams don't have time to adjust, and these
guys are all college all Americans. I mean, the backups
in the NBA can score in their sleep. And there's
only one basketball in the court, which means these guys
don't get the opportunity when the superstars are out there,
but when they can step up. The one I still
talk about was that wager talk today about a month
ago on Monday, it was the Sixers against the Nuggets
and the Nuggets were already shorthanded. I gave them out
at like plus twelve with no yokiics, and then they
ruled out Murray and maybe Gordon. A couple other guys
got ruled out. It went highs like seventeen that night,
and they won the game outright. I think it was overtime,
but they still want an outright as a seventeen point dog.
And you look at that box score, you don't even
recognize the names, but guys having twenty thirty points. So
that's why it works. It continues to work, and you
keep thinking, well that continues to work, it won't work anymore.
But they're moving the lines six points. They just moved
to six points in the OKC game. That's why it
continues to work. But a lot of times it doesn't matter, like, okay,
see if they covered it, they'll probably win the game
out right. If they cover, otherwise the Spurs will probably round.
It just isn't a lot of in between. It doesn't
seem like it ever ever comes close to the numbers.
It's either an outright dog winner, the line move didn't matter.
Speaker 1: It didn't or it didn't make a difference. Absolutely crazy
across the board here. But we'll have an NBA rundown
for you coming up. Steve's gonna run down a couple
of games in college of basketball. We talked to Art earlier.
Steve not a not a whole lot, obviously, he's expecting
more volume coming up over the next few days at
the sports books. One of the questions I asked him
was if he thought maybe this game we'd start to
get some regional movement, meaning maybe the books in the north,
the northeast, right maryl might be shaded a little more
towards New England, knowing that the public light is going
to look that way. But it feels like out west
it's gonna get a lot of Seattle love there in
the books. It's no doubt Seattle appears to be the
public favorite, he said, five to one. Right now a
ticket count in favor of Seattle, but not a whole
lot of the sharp bets or the bets that are
going to move the line one way or the other
just yet, but a whole lot of public love for Seattle.
Have you noticed the regional difference in books yet? Meryl
would sometimes would standalone games like this.
Speaker 5: This game's so big, it's hard to imagine, you know,
there'd be a huge regional bias. But I do think
maybe we're seeing that a little bit in Vegas right now.
I do feel the Seahawks of the public side in
this game. But I don't know if it's like in
an eighty percent rate like the Westgates reporting, then it
makes sense that the early money in Vegas might be
a little bit more West Coast oriented with Seattle than
an East Coast team. But I think this weekend Seattle
does look like the public side. So there again, if
you're going to play this game, probably hurry in my opinion,
to take plus four and a half. In New England,
I think you'll find more fives available, and there are
some fives out there right now. Four and a half though,
I just don't think it's gonna drop down to fours.
If you like Seatley probably played the four and a half.
Now you like New England, I would wait, you're probably
gonna get a five. Maybe a five and a half.
Five is not a real key number though, so in
the big overall scheme of things, it's probably not gonna matter.
Speaker 4: We also was consensus is Meryl.
Speaker 1: I think if you're leaning towards an over I don't
think you're getting below forty five if you can get
it now. So maybe we know what's gonna happen come Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. The public's not running to the window
to bet an under so maybe now would be the time,
sooner rather than later. If you're looking at an over,
and if you're thinking the under, I don't think there's
any rush here.
Speaker 4: I think you'll get the better number closer to kickoff.
Speaker 5: Yeah, forty five is a semi key number. Forty six
is what we call a dead number, very unlikely to
land on forty six, But forty five does come into
play in the circa right now in Las Vegas has
a forty five. Most other books around the world and
in the US have forty five and a half. So
if you do like the over, i'd probably grab the
over forty five if you have one available. I doubt
it gets much lower, And I agree with you, Joe.
I think this weekend they'll probably be more over bets
coming in. Although I do have a feel and the
sharp money is on the under here, and that's why
it initially moved lower from forty six, and the sharp's
obviously bit heavier, But I feel like they've already hit
this game. If you like the over, forty five is
probably the best you're gonna get.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree on that one there, Meryl.
Speaker 1: All right, we got some best bets here today to
talk about in a lot of places we can go.
I'll be at that Panther and brewing game tonight. Merrill there,
and it's not good because he had told me that
he's getting nothing but sharp brewin money tonight here, which
is great.
Speaker 4: So I'm really gonna hate this game.
Speaker 1: Tonight, But we got plenty of college hoops, plenty of
NBA action here. I'll kick it all for us because
I think I'm gonna look at a game tonight where
a little revenge on their mind, and that is with
Seaton Hall taking on Nova here tonight. The Pirates lost
the first go around to Villanova. That game was back,
I believe, right around December twenty third, and Nova just
shot lights out from three. And we all know Seaton
Hall is not going to outshoot anybody from the perimeter.
But what they will do is be extremely physical and
they will make it a rock fight, which makes covering
numbers like Nova right now lay in seven to seven
and a half a little more difficult here. Also, they
didn't have their big man in that first game, did
Seaton Hall, But they'll have him back tonight and with
revenge on their mind. And you know holloway Man, he's
all about making it very very difficult for you to
get points in the paint, and if you have a
variant night where the three aren't dropping at a forty
three percent clip like they were in that first game.
I think this game is gonna be a lot closer
than maybe Nova fans want to admit.
Speaker 4: This game is in Villanova.
Speaker 1: They did beat Seton Hall in Newark, but I think
Seaton Hall will keep this game certainly close enough in
order to be able to who knows Merrill even possibly
pull out the outright upset here tonight.
Speaker 5: Very very interesting, Joe Vernari, I like where you're going
with that. I'm gonna I'm gonna look at the best
bet here in the NBA tonight, look at the totals
play for you. Let's you know, a lot of uncertainty
of the NBA this week, with the All Star Game
coming up, the trade deadline tomorrow, but I think that
often leads to playground style mentality, and we could take
advantage with some overs for that reason. And one over
I do like tonight is the over in the late
game between Memphis and Sacramento. Rizzley's and Kings over up
and over two thirty one and a half. We've seen
a little bit of money coming on the over in
this game. It opened around two twenty nine and a half.
Now I up to two thirty one and a half.
I agree with the sharp money move there at ten
o'clock Eastern in this late night game. Very little defense
in this one to night and I like the offense here.
And we look at the recent games for these squads.
Sacramento just played a game against those Wizards, who are,
as you said, on a shopping spree. They allowed one
hundred and sixteen in that game. They barely got over
the total two twenty seven and a half. But they
are very mediocre offense. They look for a better offensive
output tonight. Their defense has been dicey though they've given
up forty seven percent shooting or worse in four of
their last five games. I just don't see that getting
much better tonight. I don't think Memphis will be playing
much defense this evening either. They've given up forty nine
percent shooting or worse now in four straight games. So
two teams have been very suspect defensively. Not sure how
focused there'd be tonight. I look for a playground mentality.
Lots of offense Memphis Sacramento over two thirty one and
a half. That's a ten o'clock Eastern on Wednesday night.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I don't see a whole lot of defense
being played in that game at all. Here, people, I'm
with you there, Merrill. All right, some best bets here's
night one, College one NBA, before we dive in to
the rundowns and go down the list of what else
is happening here, Meryl. A lot going on here this week,
right the Colm before the storm, super Bowl, best bets, props,
whatever you may have, College hoops, NBA, Oh yeah, pitchers
and catchers reporting in a week, Merrill. Always a good
time of year, the Olympics. What do you got locked
and loaded going on over at wager talk dot com
for US tonight?
Speaker 5: Yeah, three plays, three different sports, all available right now
on my page. I do have my advanced super Bowl selection.
I keep forgetting to mention that it's been up for
a week now. My advanced super Bowl best bet, my
strongest play of the Big Game, is available nice and
early for you so you can shop, run and get
the best number. But I also have two plays on
a Wednesday one, College one NBA. Neither one or mentioned
on the show here today. They're my personal best bet
strong four percent plays all available tonight on Wednesday, and
if you want to get them a la carte pick
and choose, that is fine. But we also have a
ten days special for the price of seven. Ten days
for just ninety nine gets you every best bet college
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it gets it down about a dollar a play. Steve
merrillwager Talk dot com and oh a bonus college basketball
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there quicker WT dot Buzz slash sm.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, there you go, all right, Time for
our NBA rundown coming up. I should tell you also
locked and loaded NBA here tonight.
Speaker 4: We cashed with Denver last night.
Speaker 1: How I don't know that second quarter was absolutely nauseating
against Detroit, but usual Detroit fashion, they just play with
their food and let teams hang around. So that was
a good winner for uslast night tonight, locked in loaded.
NBA also got a couple of college basketball best bets
that are ready to go plenty of value on his
board here tonight to visit wager talk dot com my page,
as well as that five percent Super Bowl best bets
is ready to go over on our page. So Merril,
let's do this. We've got NBA rundown first, and let's.
Speaker 4: Run down with it right now.
Speaker 1: We've got the let's face it, the New York Knicks
tonight here taking on those Denver Nuggets, both on the
second of a back to back. We're starting to see
some Denver money hit the marketplace, but we're seeing a
ton of over money. From two twenty three and a
half last night, I'm seeing two twenty six and a
halfs maybe even to twenty seven. So maybe a little
less defense, a little more offense here tonight. Minnesota. Also,
nobody wants to better them or trust the Meryl because
it looks like Toronto is getting love. Minnesota opened up
a three, three and air point favorite and we're seeing
ones right now, so Toronto is getting the look. Also,
New Orleans at Milwaukee. Milwaukee made more three pointers in
that game last night than they've made in the last
two months. Chances of them doing that again in New
Orleans probably none. But are we really laying five five
and a half with New Orleans tonight? Is what you
got to ask yourself. Boston is playing nobody, that's right, nobody.
Second of a back to back here tonight. Houston is
now a seven point favorite. They were a four four
and a half point favorite. But now no Jalen Brown.
That might be a problem here, Okasee. We told you
with SGA out that line has gone through the roof
Memphis and Sacramento. Steve told you I'll be looking for defense.
Look at the over in that one. And then of
course Cleveland and the Clippers.
Speaker 4: Awkward.
Speaker 1: Now all of a sudden, you've got James Harden. Wait
till he gets a load of the strippers in Cleveland, Meryl.
You got James Harden there wearing a clip Cleveland uniform tonight.
Speaker 4: Darius Garland's hurt, so it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 1: But interesting spot here for the Clippers at home. We've
seen a little love for Cleveland early on. It's only
up to two though, and it hasn't moved a whole lot.
The total is starting to creep up here a little bit.
Something tells me Kawhi Leonard might might show up in
a big way for this game tonight. So Merrill, there
is our NBA rundown here. But that's gonna be a
little weird, isn't it? With Cleveland and the and the
Clippers here tonight?
Speaker 5: Yeah? What can go wrong when you pick up James Harden?
It's worked so well for all the other franchises, so
including when he was the sixth man at OKC they
blew the two nothing lead against the Heat and Lebron
as you recall, what over.
Speaker 1: A decade ago possibly go wrong with that? Good luck Cleveland,
you wanted them, and well you've you got them. We'll
see how that goes there.
Speaker 4: All right, Meryl, it.
Speaker 1: Is time here for the college basketball rundown. You got
a couple of games that you're gonna preview. It is
up to what's going on tonight.
Speaker 5: Look at two of your national TV games at nine
o'clock Eastern tonight in college hoops, Free plays and analysis
in both TV games for you in just a moment,
quick reminder of my two official best bets My strongest
plays to n I one, College one NBA are both
available on my page, along with my Super Bowl best
bet Locked and Loaded. Steve Merrill Wager Talk dot com.
You get there, quicker, WT dot Buzz, slash sm Let's
look at your first national TV game at nine o'clock Eastern.
This is on Fox Sports one BYU at Oklahoma State,
and BYU currently about a seven point favorite at open six.
It's and bet up to seven total dropped a bit
from one sixty nine down to one sixty eight in
most spots, But I agree with that move on BYU.
If you're going to play it, I would lay it
tonight with the Cougars. You know, I always love to
play with Cougars. But this is a good spot here
for BYU. There's seventeen to h straight up this year
as a favorite, so they will likely win this game tonight,
and while the line might look a little bit inflated,
it's for good reason because this is an extreme focus
spot for BYU. After losing three of their previous four games,
they started sixteen and one straight up this year. Tough
loss at Texas Tech has a good team, not a
great loss against Arizona, but that was still the number
one undefeated team in the country and they only lost
by three at home, and then a tough loss of Kansas.
I thought it was a good bounce back spot at
Kansas Saturday. They are down big early, they made a
nice run in the second half, ended up losing by eight,
their worst defensive showing of the season, though, that's another reason.
I look for them to be extremely motivated tonight. So
definitely could take a look at BYU minus is seven
if you do feel this line has become a little
bit inflated. We could also look at a team total
Oklahoma State under eighty eighty and a half. I really
like these college team total has been doing well with
them this year. The free videos problem is some sportsbooks
don't offer them, and the reason being is because they're
very beatable. So I do like the Oklahoma State team
total under eighty eighty and a half. Otherwise, if you
don't have access to team totals, BYU minus seven makes
a lot of sense as well. That's at nine o'clock
eastern on Fox Sports One. All right, let's look at
your other game at nine eastern on National TV. On
the Deuce on ESPN two Oklahoma Kentucky. And here we've
got Kentucky currently about an eight and a half to
nine point favorite totals Holden steady today right around that
one fifty three range and on the surface Kentucky. Two
teams heading in opposite directions. You know, Oklahoma started the
season one to zero beat Mississippi. They've lost eight straight
conference games since, they're zero to eight run in conference play,
and it doesn't get any easier on the road against
a Kentucky team that underachieved this season. Off to a
very mediocre five and four start, and then after they
lost their first two conference games, they were just nine
and six overall, zero to two in the SEC. They
have since gone six and one straight up in the
last seven games, the early loss coming at Vanderbilt and
blowout fashion.
Speaker 4: What do they do?
Speaker 5: They bounce back with a road dog win at Arkansas
on Saturday that was a best bet winner for my
clients on Saturday. The problem is, this isn't a great
scheduling spot here. I definitely like Kentucky as the better team,
but it's not a great scheduling spot here. After the
two tough road games and the underdog win, They've also
got to look ahead next this Saturday against Tennessee. However,
if you're going to play it, the only way I
would play is to lay it with Kentucky minus the nine.
And there are some matchup edges here as well. Oklahoma
takes a lot of three point shots. The Kentucky defense
has been fantastic against threes this year, barely giving up
thirty percent from three point range, So just don't see
Oklahoma hitting the threes tonight. Both teams do score down
low from two point range. Both teams are excellent with
offensive rebounds, so here again I lean Kentucky. I'm worried
about Oklahoma's three point shooting. Just take Oklahoma out of
the equation and we'll look at a Kentucky team total
up and over. So even if they come a little
bit flat, I think the offense will still be there.
Kentucky team total over the eighty one is worth a look.
Otherwise I would lay the eight and a half to
nine does concern me a bit though this could be
a bit flat spot, and if it does show on
the defensive end, I think Kentucky will still do some
scoring here, but I would lean Wildcats. I do not
trust the Sooner squad that has lost eight straight in
the SEC. They go a couple TV opinions for you
tonight at nine eastern on Fox Sports one and ESPN two. Now,
don't forget if you're playing these free play videos, I
give you a free play video each and every day.
Try to give you multiple games every day for free
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Speaker 4: That's it, Merril.
Speaker 1: A lot going on here week, a lot to be
excited about. And yeah, tomorrow as well, we'll have Art
to Caesar back. We'll get to figure out more of
the the prop betting that that he is getting at
the West Gate.
Speaker 4: We'll see if there's any line movement.
Speaker 1: Of course, we'll have much more on the college basketball
slate NBA as we get ready to head into the Olympics.
May are you doing dabbling in the Olympics curling? Maybe
I do enjoy a good curling match. I like to
dabble every now and then, rab a swifterer out of
the hallway closet.
Speaker 4: And yes, exactly it started.
Speaker 5: That's how it gets started, is with the swifter and
then then it leads up to the bigger ice. Yeah,
it's funny. Every year at the Olympics, I don't really
focus on it. Then it kicks on and I'll start watching.
It's kind of like the World Cup. I'll start watching
a little bit of it and I get hooked as
a as a sports fan. But from a handicapping perspective,
probably it won't likely dive in just because the juice
isn't worth the squeeze. You hear that that, you know,
that's saying a lot of times because I'd have to
like literally educate myself about these sports for hours and
hours of researchs for what two or three bets. If
there's any value, its just But there are guys, Look,
there's guys that do very well with them. There's gonna
be some cameras a wager talk that do it as well.
There is a niche and hey, look these lines are soft.
I'm sure Art will tell you the same thing. These
aren't solid, sharp numbers, right and there their limits are
gonna be lower than the Super Bowl, for example. But
as a handicapper, it's hard to justify those hours and
hours of research to maybe come up with, you know,
one or two plays. But there are people that do
it in more power to them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure a lot of the hockey cappers will
be all over there's Olympics, and.
Speaker 5: I was gonna say it, that's crossed my mind. I
was gonna say, I do dabble with the basketball because
I followed that closely in the Summer Olympics. So yeah,
hockey would be kind of the comparison and the Winter Olympics,
and guys that cover hockey a wager talk definitely will
be dialed in.
Speaker 1: It'll be all over that, yes, and I'll be watching
to see if Lindsey Vaughn would a torn acl at
forty one years old and she's like, I'm still doing it.
If she meddles out, might be the story of the
decade for sure.
Speaker 4: There that she can thank.
Speaker 1: Tiger Woods work all right, Meryl, outstanding stuff as always.
Don't forget Art to Caesar bringing baseball win totals this
week is all just got him post it up there.
We'll have all that information for you, just another reason
to hit the like subscribe button. And of course don't
forget drop those prop bet questions in the comments section.
Art's gonna get to him. He'll tell you what's going on.
Any questions you guys may have want to know where
the market's heading with him, drop him in, and of
course we'll get back to you again. To mar So
double R one L, Steve Merrill, enjoy it.
Speaker 4: Brother.
Speaker 1: You are back again tomorrow as we look to finish
out the week without Prez. Who is skiing somewhere near you?
I guess, and it's definitely not in Milan, I can
tell you that. So Meryl again tomorrow. Yeah, he's you know,
he's out there addressing up like it's business time. So
good luck to the guys he's rooming with. We'll see
again tomorrow, though, guys here on the best betting show ever.
Speaker 4: Oh god,