WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.399 --> 00:00:07.719 Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos 2 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:12.279 with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a 3 00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:16.320 gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for 4 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:20.239 unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries 5 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:22.440 of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful 6 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:26.760 slumber under the night sky. 7 00:00:26.879 --> 00:00:28.760 I want you to try something with me. It's a 8 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:31.359 mental exercise to get us started. Okay, I want you 9 00:00:31.399 --> 00:00:34.439 to close your eyes right now, just for a second. 10 00:00:34.920 --> 00:00:37.600 Imagine you are standing in the middle of a vast 11 00:00:37.799 --> 00:00:41.439 open field, right You are miles away from the nearest city, 12 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:45.520 no street lights, no car headlights, just total absolute darkness. 13 00:00:45.960 --> 00:00:48.719 And you look up bicks classic night sky, the one 14 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:50.840 our ancestors saw exactly. Yeah. 15 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:54.799 For ninety nine percent of human history, that view was static. 16 00:00:55.039 --> 00:00:56.079 It was peaceful. 17 00:00:56.439 --> 00:00:59.240 It was empty, Yeah, predictable. 18 00:00:59.280 --> 00:01:02.280 You had the stars, the planets, the Milky Way if 19 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:04.480 you were lucky enough to be away from light pollution. 20 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:06.640 It was a painting that didn't change. It was the 21 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:07.719 definition of stillness. 22 00:01:07.719 --> 00:01:09.120 But now now it's different. 23 00:01:09.319 --> 00:01:12.280 Open your eyes because that painting is gone. 24 00:01:12.359 --> 00:01:13.879 It has been replaced by a highway. 25 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:15.480 That's a great way to put it. If you go 26 00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:18.359 out tonight and you have the right equipment, or honestly, 27 00:01:18.400 --> 00:01:20.439 even if you just have decent eyesight and look closely 28 00:01:20.519 --> 00:01:23.280 during twilight, that sky is buzzing. 29 00:01:23.680 --> 00:01:24.200 It really is. 30 00:01:24.400 --> 00:01:27.239 It is literally alive with movement. It's not just shooting 31 00:01:27.280 --> 00:01:31.599 stars anymore. It's hardware. It is human made machinery streaking 32 00:01:31.640 --> 00:01:32.959 across the constellations. 33 00:01:33.239 --> 00:01:36.079 It is infrastructure. That is the fundamental shift. Yeah, we 34 00:01:36.159 --> 00:01:39.280 used to look up and see nature, you know, something eternal. 35 00:01:39.439 --> 00:01:40.920 Now we look up and see traffic. 36 00:01:41.159 --> 00:01:45.280 And today is Monday, February sixteenth, twenty twenty six. And 37 00:01:45.359 --> 00:01:47.760 as we sit here right now, the sheer volume of 38 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:51.400 metal circling over our heads is well, it's staggering. 39 00:01:51.680 --> 00:01:54.799 It is. It's hard to comprehend just how busy it 40 00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:56.480 has gotten in such a short amount of time. 41 00:01:56.599 --> 00:01:57.640 So let's put a number on it. 42 00:01:57.840 --> 00:01:59.959 To put a specific number on it. As of this morning, 43 00:02:00.319 --> 00:02:04.519 there are roughly eleven thousand, eight hundred active satellites in orbit. 44 00:02:04.760 --> 00:02:07.959 Eleven thousand, eight hundred, just you know, pause on that 45 00:02:08.000 --> 00:02:11.599 for a second. Nearly twelve thousand distinct machines flying at 46 00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:14.439 seventeen thousand miles per hour weaving around each other. 47 00:02:14.560 --> 00:02:16.960 And that number, that eleven thousand, eight hundred, that's just 48 00:02:17.000 --> 00:02:19.360 the active ones. That doesn't even count the dead ones. 49 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:21.080 The old rocket stage is the debris. 50 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:23.639 Oh wow, Okay, so the actual number of objects is 51 00:02:23.759 --> 00:02:26.360 much higher, much much higher. That's already hard for me 52 00:02:26.400 --> 00:02:28.319 to wrap my head around. I remember when it was 53 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:30.479 just a few hundred. But when I looked at the 54 00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:34.159 projections in the source material for today's analysis, that is 55 00:02:34.159 --> 00:02:35.319 when I actually got worried. 56 00:02:35.599 --> 00:02:38.319 You are looking at the twenty thirty numbers, I am, 57 00:02:38.520 --> 00:02:39.159 and they are. 58 00:02:39.080 --> 00:02:40.960 I mean, they're exponentially wilder. 59 00:02:41.039 --> 00:02:43.639 They are. The current industry predition suggests that by the 60 00:02:43.719 --> 00:02:47.360 end of this decade, so effectively, in just four years, 61 00:02:47.719 --> 00:02:50.280 that number isn't going to double, it isn't going to triple. 62 00:02:50.879 --> 00:02:54.039 It could skyrocket to over one hundred thousand satellites. 63 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:56.800 One hundred thousand. That isn't a highway anymore. No, that 64 00:02:56.919 --> 00:02:59.840 is a swarm. That is a cloud of metal encasing 65 00:03:00.080 --> 00:03:03.400 the planet. And this brings us to the absolute heart 66 00:03:03.479 --> 00:03:07.039 of what we are unpacking today, because there's a tension here, 67 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:10.080 a conflict that I think most people, even those who 68 00:03:10.120 --> 00:03:14.199 follow space news don't fully realize is happening. 69 00:03:14.280 --> 00:03:16.879 It is the central tension of the modern space age. 70 00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:21.080 It is what researchers are now calling the space sustainability. 71 00:03:20.319 --> 00:03:23.199 Paradox, the paradox, and this is the hook for today's 72 00:03:23.199 --> 00:03:26.439 exploration because on one hand, we are launching all of 73 00:03:26.479 --> 00:03:29.800 these satellites for noble reasons right for most part, Yes, 74 00:03:29.840 --> 00:03:32.759 we aren't just doing it for TikTok or high frequency trading. 75 00:03:32.800 --> 00:03:35.840 We are trying to save Earth. We are monitoring climate change, 76 00:03:35.840 --> 00:03:39.080 we are watching crops to ensure food security, we are 77 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:41.199 tracking disasters. 78 00:03:40.639 --> 00:03:43.879 Precisely, we are building a nervous system for the planet. 79 00:03:44.199 --> 00:03:47.000 We are trying to give Earth away to sense itself, 80 00:03:47.000 --> 00:03:48.759 to monitor its own vital signs. 81 00:03:48.879 --> 00:03:52.039 But here is the kicker, the irony. Yeah, in doing so, 82 00:03:52.199 --> 00:03:54.800 in trying to save the environment down here, we might 83 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:57.360 be destroying the environment immediately surrounding Earth. 84 00:03:57.560 --> 00:03:59.639 That is the core of the paradox. It is a 85 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:04.479 concept that has been heavily highlighted by researcher John McIntosh 86 00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:07.879 and his team at the University of Manchester. The argument 87 00:04:08.039 --> 00:04:10.919 is that the very tools we are using to solve 88 00:04:11.120 --> 00:04:15.280 environmental and social challenges on Earth could ultimately undermine the 89 00:04:15.319 --> 00:04:17.639 long term sustainability of space itself. 90 00:04:17.839 --> 00:04:20.000 It is a cruel irony, isn't it. We are so 91 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:22.279 focused on cleaning up the ground that we are trashing 92 00:04:22.279 --> 00:04:22.800 the ceiling. 93 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:25.240 That is a very apt way to put it. And 94 00:04:25.279 --> 00:04:28.240 the danger is that if we aren't careful, that ceiling 95 00:04:28.279 --> 00:04:29.199 becomes unusable. 96 00:04:29.240 --> 00:04:30.319 And if that happens, and if the. 97 00:04:30.240 --> 00:04:33.240 Ceiling becomes unusable, we lose the ability to monitor the ground. 98 00:04:33.720 --> 00:04:36.920 It is a feedback loop of failure. If we break space, 99 00:04:37.279 --> 00:04:39.319 we lose the tools we need to fix Earth. 100 00:04:39.639 --> 00:04:42.639 So the mission for this analysis is to look at 101 00:04:42.680 --> 00:04:46.079 a new breakthrough that might actually help us solve this paradox. 102 00:04:46.839 --> 00:04:49.120 We are looking at research coming out of the University 103 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:52.120 of Manchester that proposes a way to keep an eye 104 00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:55.560 on our planet without turning low Earth orbit into a 105 00:04:55.639 --> 00:04:57.360 demolition derby. 106 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:00.839 It's a fascinating piece of work because challenge is how 107 00:05:00.879 --> 00:05:04.920 we have traditionally built satellites. It asks us to rethink 108 00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:07.800 the trade offs between what we want to see on 109 00:05:07.839 --> 00:05:09.879 the ground and the risks we take in the sky. 110 00:05:10.040 --> 00:05:12.399 It seems to ask a pretty fundamental question. 111 00:05:12.360 --> 00:05:15.199 It does. It forces us to ask, is the way 112 00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:18.000 we have been designing these missions actually the dangerous part. 113 00:05:18.120 --> 00:05:20.079 And just a note for everyone listening, we are going 114 00:05:20.160 --> 00:05:21.720 to get into the weeds of this. We aren't just 115 00:05:21.720 --> 00:05:24.160 going to skim the surface. We are going to look 116 00:05:24.199 --> 00:05:27.519 at the physics, the decision making models, and the surprising 117 00:05:27.600 --> 00:05:30.480 finding is about where the most dangerous places in orbit 118 00:05:30.680 --> 00:05:34.120 actually are. And spoiler alert because spoiler alert, it is 119 00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:35.199 not where you think it is. 120 00:05:35.439 --> 00:05:38.560 It certainly surprised me. The data is very counterintuitive. It 121 00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:41.600 challenges a lot of the assumptions even industry veterans have 122 00:05:41.639 --> 00:05:42.439 held for years. 123 00:05:42.680 --> 00:05:44.839 So let's get into it. Let's start with the basics. 124 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:48.120 The crowded sky. Why and I mean really, why are 125 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:50.399 we putting one hundred thousand things up there? Is this 126 00:05:50.519 --> 00:05:52.680 just so I can have faster Internet on my phone? 127 00:05:52.759 --> 00:05:56.720 Is it just about Starlink and Amazon Kuyper battling for dominance? 128 00:05:56.879 --> 00:05:59.920 Well, internet connectivity is a big driver. Certainly, the mega 129 00:06:00.120 --> 00:06:03.160 constellations for broadband are the ones that get the headlines 130 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:05.560 because they launch in batches of sixty at a time. 131 00:06:05.639 --> 00:06:07.600 It's flashy, right, you see the rocket go up, you 132 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:09.480 see the videos of them deploying. 133 00:06:09.639 --> 00:06:12.199 But for this specific discussion and for the research, we 134 00:06:12.240 --> 00:06:15.879 are analyzing today, the focus is really on Earth observation. 135 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:21.120 Satellites Earth observations, so cameras in the sky spying. 136 00:06:22.199 --> 00:06:26.800 Well, monitoring is the polite term, but essentially yes. However, 137 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:29.399 it is much more than just taking pretty pictures or 138 00:06:29.439 --> 00:06:32.959 military spying. These satellites have become the critical tools for 139 00:06:33.040 --> 00:06:38.120 meeting the United nations seventeen Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs. 140 00:06:38.199 --> 00:06:41.360 The SDGs, okay, those are the big global checklists for 141 00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:45.000 a better world, right, zero hunger, climate action, life on land. 142 00:06:45.120 --> 00:06:45.560 That's them. 143 00:06:45.680 --> 00:06:48.240 I see the colorful icons everywhere, but I rarely connect 144 00:06:48.240 --> 00:06:49.199 them to space hardware. 145 00:06:49.439 --> 00:06:53.560 You should, because you cannot fix what you cannot measure. 146 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:57.759 That is the fundamental rule of engineering in policy. If 147 00:06:57.800 --> 00:07:00.560 you want to solve zero hunger, you need to know 148 00:07:00.600 --> 00:07:03.639 where the food is growing, where it is failing, and why. 149 00:07:04.120 --> 00:07:07.000 That is where these satellites come in. They provide the raw, 150 00:07:07.399 --> 00:07:10.720 unvarnished data we need to verify if we are actually 151 00:07:10.720 --> 00:07:11.600 meeting those goals. 152 00:07:11.720 --> 00:07:14.040 Can we get specific here? I want to visualize this. 153 00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:17.800 When you say monitoring, what are they actually looking at? 154 00:07:17.920 --> 00:07:20.079 Give me a concrete example. Let's take one of the goals. 155 00:07:20.079 --> 00:07:22.839 Okay, let's take land use in urban development. This is 156 00:07:22.839 --> 00:07:27.600 STG eleven Sustainable Cities and Communities. Okay, right now, cities 157 00:07:27.639 --> 00:07:30.160 in the global South are expanding at a rate that 158 00:07:30.279 --> 00:07:33.240 is almost impossible to track from the ground. You have 159 00:07:33.399 --> 00:07:36.199 informal settlements, slums popping up overnight. 160 00:07:35.959 --> 00:07:37.720 And governments might not even know they're there. 161 00:07:37.759 --> 00:07:40.040 They don't have the paperwork exactly, they don't have the 162 00:07:40.079 --> 00:07:43.480 census data, they don't have the resources to send surveyors 163 00:07:43.519 --> 00:07:46.879 out every week. But a satellite passes over every day. 164 00:07:46.759 --> 00:07:48.519 Every single day. It sees the. 165 00:07:48.480 --> 00:07:51.560 New roofs, It sees the roads being cut into the forest, 166 00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:54.439 It sees where the infrastructure is failing. It can measure 167 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:57.560 the heat island effect of a specific neighborhood. We use 168 00:07:57.600 --> 00:08:01.399 that data for real time urban planning on a planetary. 169 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:02.800 Scale, so it isn't just a map. It is a 170 00:08:02.920 --> 00:08:06.000 living document of human expansion. It helps them figure out 171 00:08:06.040 --> 00:08:09.639 where to put water pipes or schools or clinics correct. 172 00:08:09.920 --> 00:08:13.040 It turns urban planning from a reactive process into a 173 00:08:13.079 --> 00:08:16.600 proactive one. Then look at environmental degradation. This is the 174 00:08:16.600 --> 00:08:17.040 big one. 175 00:08:17.079 --> 00:08:20.639 Climate action, life on land, life below water, all of. 176 00:08:20.600 --> 00:08:23.439 That, all of it. We are tracking deforestation in the 177 00:08:23.480 --> 00:08:26.600 Amazon counting the trees as they fall. We are measuring 178 00:08:26.639 --> 00:08:28.959 the volume of melting ice sheets in the Arctic to 179 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:29.720 the cubic meter. 180 00:08:29.920 --> 00:08:31.399 How is that even possible? 181 00:08:31.560 --> 00:08:34.919 Using radar altimetry, they bounce signals off the ice and 182 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:37.960 measure the return time down to the nanosecond. That tells 183 00:08:37.960 --> 00:08:39.759 you the height of the ice sheet and you can 184 00:08:39.799 --> 00:08:41.000 see it shrinking over time. 185 00:08:41.159 --> 00:08:42.000 That's incredible. 186 00:08:42.080 --> 00:08:44.759 We are monitoring the health of coral reefs by looking 187 00:08:44.840 --> 00:08:47.080 at the color of the water. We can even track 188 00:08:47.120 --> 00:08:50.120 illegal fishing boats by spotting ships that have turned off 189 00:08:50.159 --> 00:08:51.039 their transponders. 190 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:52.320 So it's accountability. 191 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:55.320 It's accountability and its measurement. You can have a climate 192 00:08:55.360 --> 00:08:59.559 treaty if you can't verify if a country is actually 193 00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:03.720 reduced seeing its emissions or protecting its forests. This is 194 00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:04.919 the verification system. 195 00:09:05.000 --> 00:09:07.360 And disaster response is a huge one too. I remember 196 00:09:07.440 --> 00:09:09.679 reading about this during the last big earthquake season. 197 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:12.159 It is critical. It's one of the most immediate life 198 00:09:12.159 --> 00:09:16.720 saving applications. When an earthquake hits or a hurricane makes landfall, 199 00:09:17.080 --> 00:09:19.840 the roads are gone, the power lines are. 200 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:21.039 Down, chaos on the ground. 201 00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:23.440 You cannot send a guy in a jeep to check 202 00:09:23.480 --> 00:09:27.240 the damage. The first thing emergency responders ask for is 203 00:09:27.279 --> 00:09:28.519 the satellite. 204 00:09:28.000 --> 00:09:30.480 Pass They need the before and after photo to see 205 00:09:30.480 --> 00:09:31.480 where help is needed. 206 00:09:31.600 --> 00:09:33.759 They need a damage map. They need to know which 207 00:09:33.799 --> 00:09:37.480 bridges are out, which neighborhoods are underwater. That coordination of 208 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:40.639 aid getting the water and medicine to the right place 209 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:45.039 in the first twenty four hours saves one thousands of lives. Wow, 210 00:09:45.080 --> 00:09:48.720 And that coordination happens because of eyes in the sky. 211 00:09:49.039 --> 00:09:51.399 It connects back to food security too, doesn't it the 212 00:09:51.519 --> 00:09:52.559 zero hunger goal? 213 00:09:52.960 --> 00:09:57.000 It does. This is arguably the most sophisticated usage. We 214 00:09:57.039 --> 00:09:59.720 aren't just taking photos of corn fields to count the acres. 215 00:10:00.000 --> 00:10:02.960 More than that, oh much more. We were using hyper 216 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:06.519 spectral imaging. We look at wavelengths of light that the 217 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:08.120 human eye cannot see. 218 00:10:08.440 --> 00:10:09.279 What does that tell you? 219 00:10:09.399 --> 00:10:11.559 It tells you everything. We can look at the moisture 220 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:14.200 levels inside the soil. From orbit. We can see the 221 00:10:14.240 --> 00:10:17.159 chlorophyll content in the leaves, which tells you how healthy 222 00:10:17.200 --> 00:10:17.759 the plant is. 223 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:20.600 So you can spot a blight or a drought before 224 00:10:20.639 --> 00:10:22.399 it's visible to a farmer on the ground. 225 00:10:22.519 --> 00:10:26.399 Exactly. We can predict a yield shortage in wheat across 226 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:30.960 the entire Ukrainian bread basket months before the harvest actually happens. 227 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:33.840 That is incredible. So in a world with a growing 228 00:10:33.879 --> 00:10:37.440 population and a climate that is getting more erratic, that 229 00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:39.759 data is essentially preventing famine. 230 00:10:39.840 --> 00:10:40.159 It is. 231 00:10:40.399 --> 00:10:42.799 It tells governments, hey, you were going to run out 232 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:45.320 of food in six months by grain now exactly. 233 00:10:45.360 --> 00:10:47.960 It smooths out the shocks to the global food system. 234 00:10:48.200 --> 00:10:51.320 And speaking of shocks, the sources also mentioned supply chains. 235 00:10:51.440 --> 00:10:53.159 Ah, yes, remember. 236 00:10:52.879 --> 00:10:55.960 They ever given the ship that blocked the Sioux Is Canal. 237 00:10:56.399 --> 00:10:58.559 Hard to forget the meme of the year. 238 00:10:59.320 --> 00:11:02.519 Satellites were tracking that backup in real time. If you 239 00:11:02.519 --> 00:11:05.120 can see that a port in Shanghai is congested or 240 00:11:05.200 --> 00:11:09.080 a key route is blocked, you can anticipate economic shocks. 241 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:13.399 You could reroute cargo. It's the backbone of global logistics. Okay, 242 00:11:13.399 --> 00:11:15.919 So when we talk about these one hundred thousand satellites, 243 00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:19.639 we have to be clear. We aren't just throwing them 244 00:11:19.720 --> 00:11:21.879 up there for fun. No, we aren't just doing it 245 00:11:21.919 --> 00:11:24.440 because we can. We rely on them. They are the 246 00:11:24.480 --> 00:11:26.559 nervous system of our modern civilization. 247 00:11:26.720 --> 00:11:28.919 They really are. If you turn them off tomorrow, we 248 00:11:28.960 --> 00:11:33.519 would be flying blind on climate, on agriculture, on disaster relief. 249 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:35.759 We would be back to the nineteen fifties in terms 250 00:11:35.799 --> 00:11:37.440 of our situational awareness. 251 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:40.840 We would be reacting to disasters after they happen instead 252 00:11:40.879 --> 00:11:41.759 of seeing them coming. 253 00:11:41.879 --> 00:11:45.240 Okay, so we have established the stakes. The why is solid. 254 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:48.200 We need the data. But and here's the massive butt 255 00:11:48.240 --> 00:11:50.879 we teased earlier, there is a cost of doing business. 256 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:54.080 There is always a cost. Physics demands a trade off. 257 00:11:54.200 --> 00:11:57.200 The rapid growth of these missions is making Earth's orbits, 258 00:11:57.360 --> 00:12:01.440 specifically low Earth orbit or LEO crowdod and hazardous. 259 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:03.399 Hazardous is a polay way of putting it. It is 260 00:12:03.440 --> 00:12:06.360 becoming a minefield. Break that down for me. When we 261 00:12:06.399 --> 00:12:09.000 say hazardous, are we talking about traffic jams? Like are 262 00:12:09.039 --> 00:12:10.600 satellites waiting at a red light? 263 00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:13.720 That's Jim chuckles. I wish it were that simple. No, 264 00:12:13.879 --> 00:12:17.559 imagine a highway. But on this highway, everyone is driving 265 00:12:17.639 --> 00:12:20.679 at seventeen thousand miles per hour. Okay, that is the 266 00:12:20.720 --> 00:12:23.399 speed required to stay in orbit. If you slow down, 267 00:12:23.480 --> 00:12:25.440 you fall out of the sky. So you have to 268 00:12:25.480 --> 00:12:26.000 go fast. 269 00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:30.120 Seventeen thousand miles power That is what ten times faster. 270 00:12:29.919 --> 00:12:33.320 Than a bullet roughly, Yes, and on this highway there 271 00:12:33.320 --> 00:12:35.559 are no lanes, there are no stop signs, there is 272 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:37.559 no air traffic control telling you to turn left or 273 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:39.879 right in real time, and no breaks and no breaks, 274 00:12:40.639 --> 00:12:43.840 And crucially, occasionally a car just falls apart and leaves 275 00:12:43.840 --> 00:12:45.519 its bumper in the middle of the road. 276 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:48.039 And because there is no air drag to slow it down, 277 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:51.399 that bumper just keeps flying at seventeen thousand miles per hour. 278 00:12:51.559 --> 00:12:56.159 Precisely, it stays there for years, maybe decades, maybe centuries, 279 00:12:56.159 --> 00:12:59.360 depending on the altitude. That is the threat of space debris. 280 00:12:59.399 --> 00:13:02.240 So even some thing tiny is a problem in space. 281 00:13:02.759 --> 00:13:05.840 A collision is catastrophic. It is an a fendobender where 282 00:13:05.879 --> 00:13:07.440 you pull over an exchange insurance info. 283 00:13:07.600 --> 00:13:08.919 It's his total annihilation. 284 00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:12.159 When two satellites collide, or when a satellite hits a 285 00:13:12.159 --> 00:13:14.720 piece of debris the size of a marble, it doesn't 286 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:19.399 just dent. The kinetic energy involved is insane, right the physics, 287 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:23.679 remember your high school physics. Kinetic energy equals one half 288 00:13:23.759 --> 00:13:28.000 mass times velocity squared. When the velocity is seventeen thousand 289 00:13:28.039 --> 00:13:31.759 miles per hour, that v squared term is enormous. So 290 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:34.120 even a tiny mass hits with the force of a 291 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:35.240 hand grenade. 292 00:13:34.919 --> 00:13:37.279 A hand grenade that obliterates. 293 00:13:36.639 --> 00:13:40.120 The object and creates a cloud of thousands of new fragments. 294 00:13:39.639 --> 00:13:41.440 Which then go on to hit other things. This is 295 00:13:41.440 --> 00:13:44.120 the Kessler syndrome, right, the runaway chain reaction. 296 00:13:44.399 --> 00:13:47.080 That is the worst case scenario, the domino effect. One 297 00:13:47.120 --> 00:13:50.440 collision creates debris, which causes two collisions, which creates more 298 00:13:50.440 --> 00:13:53.639 debris until the entire orbit is ground into dust. It 299 00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:55.720 creates a shell of shrapnel around the Earth. 300 00:13:55.759 --> 00:13:56.600 And if that happens. 301 00:13:56.679 --> 00:13:59.279 If that happens, we lose space. We cannot launch through 302 00:13:59.279 --> 00:14:02.159 that cloud. We lose GPS, we lose the weather satellites, 303 00:14:02.200 --> 00:14:05.120 we lose the climate monitoring. We are trapped on earth 304 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:06.159 that is terrifying. 305 00:14:06.440 --> 00:14:09.080 So by trying to monitor the earth to save it, 306 00:14:09.480 --> 00:14:11.799 we are clogging up the viewpoint we need to do 307 00:14:11.879 --> 00:14:12.519 the monitoring. 308 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:16.679 That is the space sustainability paradox. In a nutshell, we 309 00:14:16.759 --> 00:14:20.039 are risking the very environment we need to utilize. 310 00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:23.639 Okay, so we have established the stakes. We need the data, 311 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:27.039 but getting the data is risky. Now let's talk about 312 00:14:27.080 --> 00:14:28.960 why this is happening. Is it just that we are 313 00:14:29.039 --> 00:14:32.000 launching too many or is there a flaw in how 314 00:14:32.039 --> 00:14:33.240 we are designing these things. 315 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:36.039 It is a bit of both. But the research in 316 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:40.480 the University of Manchester highlights a fundamental flaw in the 317 00:14:40.519 --> 00:14:43.960 traditional design process, a flaw in the thinking exactly. It 318 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:46.200 suggests we've been doing the engineering backwards. 319 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:49.440 How does it usually work? If I am an engineer 320 00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:53.200 at a big aerospace company Lockheed Boeing Airbus, and I 321 00:14:53.240 --> 00:14:56.360 am told to build a new climate satellite, what is 322 00:14:56.399 --> 00:14:57.000 my process? 323 00:14:57.399 --> 00:15:00.480 Traditionally there is a disconnect, a siloed approach. You start 324 00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:03.279 with mission requirements. Okay, your client comes to you, maybe 325 00:15:03.279 --> 00:15:05.279 it's a government, maybe it does a company and says 326 00:15:05.919 --> 00:15:07.639 I need to see a car on the ground in Tokyo, 327 00:15:08.120 --> 00:15:10.559 or I need to measure the ice in Antarctica and 328 00:15:10.600 --> 00:15:13.000 I need the data back to headquarters in under ten minutes. 329 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:15.919 So you focus on the payload, the camera, the antenna, 330 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:17.360 the power exactly. 331 00:15:17.639 --> 00:15:20.000 You design the payload to meet those needs. Can we 332 00:15:20.039 --> 00:15:22.440 get the data? Is the resolution high enough? Is the 333 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:25.360 bandwidth fast enough? That is the priority. That is what 334 00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:28.320 you get paid for. That is the success criteria for 335 00:15:28.360 --> 00:15:28.799 the mission. 336 00:15:28.919 --> 00:15:30.559 And safety? Where does safety fit? 337 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:36.759 In collision? Risk assessment often happens separately or critically it 338 00:15:36.799 --> 00:15:38.799 happens too late in the development. 339 00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:40.200 Process, so it's an afterthought. 340 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:43.399 It is treated as a regulatory box to check. You 341 00:15:43.440 --> 00:15:45.720 build the satellite to do the job, you decide where 342 00:15:45.720 --> 00:15:47.440 it needs to fly to get the pictures, and then 343 00:15:47.440 --> 00:15:49.039 you check, oh, is this orbit safe. 344 00:15:49.279 --> 00:15:51.399 It is like designing a sports car that can go 345 00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:54.519 two hundred miles per hour, building the engine, the chassis, 346 00:15:54.600 --> 00:15:57.360 the wheels, and then realizing at the very end, oh, wait, 347 00:15:57.360 --> 00:15:59.799 this thing has no brakes and we are driving on ice. 348 00:16:00.360 --> 00:16:03.960 That is a surprisingly accurate analogy. You have locked in 349 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:08.120 the design parameters, the size, the mass, the orbit before 350 00:16:08.159 --> 00:16:10.960 you have really calculated the long term risk to the. 351 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:13.120 Environment, and at that point it's too late to change it. 352 00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:16.360 Well, it is often too expensive to redesign the whole bird, 353 00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:20.039 so you might tweak the orbit slightly, but largely you'll 354 00:16:20.080 --> 00:16:22.039 launch anyway and hope for the best. 355 00:16:22.279 --> 00:16:25.759 And that brings us to the innovation we are analyzing today, 356 00:16:26.200 --> 00:16:30.200 this new research published in Advances in Space Research. Who 357 00:16:30.279 --> 00:16:31.919 are the brains behind. 358 00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:34.840 This The team is from the University of Manchester. You 359 00:16:35.000 --> 00:16:38.000 have the lead author, John McIntosh, who is a PhD 360 00:16:38.120 --> 00:16:41.320 researcher doing some really cutting edge work. Then there is 361 00:16:41.399 --> 00:16:45.440 doctor CERR McGrath, a lecturer in aerospace systems, and Professor 362 00:16:45.519 --> 00:16:48.320 Catherine Smith, a professor of space technology. 363 00:16:48.600 --> 00:16:51.919 A solid lineup academics, but with a focus on systems 364 00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:53.759 engineering practical application. 365 00:16:54.039 --> 00:16:57.080 Very much so. And what exactly have they built is 366 00:16:57.120 --> 00:17:01.000 not a new type of shield. It's not a to zapp. 367 00:17:00.799 --> 00:17:02.679 Debriathe right, It's not a physical thing. 368 00:17:02.879 --> 00:17:05.319 No, it is something much more boring and much more important. 369 00:17:05.440 --> 00:17:07.480 They have developed a new modeling framework. 370 00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:11.000 Okay, hold on, modeling framework sounds like jargon. What does 371 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:12.640 that actually mean? In plain English? 372 00:17:12.720 --> 00:17:15.440 It means they built a simulator, a decision making tool. 373 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:18.799 The key breakthrough here is that it links mission objectives 374 00:17:18.799 --> 00:17:22.000 directly with collision risk as a key first step in 375 00:17:22.039 --> 00:17:22.680 mission design. 376 00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:25.079 So before they even draw the blueprint, before they cut 377 00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:27.480 a single piece of metal, they are calculating the risk. 378 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:31.440 Yes, instead of treating safety as an afterthought. 379 00:17:30.960 --> 00:17:32.400 It's a core design parameter. 380 00:17:32.599 --> 00:17:37.440 It treats safety in image quality as interconnected variables. You 381 00:17:37.480 --> 00:17:41.240 cannot change one without affecting the other. It forces the 382 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:44.720 engineer to see the consequences of their design choices immediately. 383 00:17:44.799 --> 00:17:47.319 This sounds like it should have been obvious, but I 384 00:17:47.319 --> 00:17:48.920 guess when you are in a gold rush, you don't 385 00:17:48.960 --> 00:17:50.640 think about the dust you are kicking up. 386 00:17:51.039 --> 00:17:54.200 It is a shift in mindset. It moves from performance 387 00:17:54.279 --> 00:17:59.960 first to sustainable performance, and that is a huge lead 388 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:00.960 for the industry. 389 00:18:01.039 --> 00:18:02.559 I want to get under the hood of this model. 390 00:18:02.599 --> 00:18:04.799 They call it a framework, but I want to visualize it. 391 00:18:05.119 --> 00:18:08.039 How does it actually work? What connects a picture of 392 00:18:08.039 --> 00:18:10.799 a cornfield in Iowa to a collision in space? Because 393 00:18:10.839 --> 00:18:12.640 those feel like two very different problems. 394 00:18:12.799 --> 00:18:14.480 To understand that, we have to look at what I 395 00:18:14.559 --> 00:18:17.240 like to call the iron triangle of orbit. The model 396 00:18:17.240 --> 00:18:20.920 breaks down several inputs that are all mathematically linked. First, 397 00:18:21.319 --> 00:18:22.359 you have image resolution. 398 00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:24.880 This is the quality of the camera, the sharpness of 399 00:18:24.920 --> 00:18:26.039 the picture. Right. 400 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:29.200 How clear does the picture need to be? Do I 401 00:18:29.279 --> 00:18:31.480