WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:04.839 Coin hasn't quite reacted to that stock market bounce the 2 00:00:04.879 --> 00:00:07.679 way we would hope they are up a little today. 3 00:00:08.199 --> 00:00:11.960 Bitcoin is and several old coins, but it's pretty modest. 4 00:00:12.039 --> 00:00:14.880 Has Bitcoin still sitting at around seventy seven K and 5 00:00:15.080 --> 00:00:18.920 was up to a little over eighty one K two 6 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:20.960 weeks ago. 7 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:28.079 Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your 8 00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:31.120 host Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian from Sentiment, 9 00:00:31.480 --> 00:00:32.799 And as you all know, we're going to do a 10 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:35.719 d dive into the metrics, the on chain metrics to 11 00:00:35.719 --> 00:00:37.520 get an idea what is going to happen next for 12 00:00:37.640 --> 00:00:41.640 bitcoin and all coins. Brian, great to see you. Good 13 00:00:41.640 --> 00:00:44.520 to see you, Tony. Always a pleasure, Yeah, Brian. You 14 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:47.320 know we do these every two weeks. Going through the 15 00:00:47.439 --> 00:00:51.240 data is very fascinating and insightful, and you know, we 16 00:00:51.320 --> 00:00:53.119 usually like to kick it off with Bitcoin to get 17 00:00:53.119 --> 00:00:56.000 an idea of how the market's following bitcoin. So maybe 18 00:00:56.039 --> 00:00:57.560 we can start with that and some of the price 19 00:00:57.560 --> 00:00:58.719 action we're seeing overall. 20 00:00:59.320 --> 00:01:00.719 Yeah, Bitcoin Sentiment. 21 00:01:00.799 --> 00:01:03.119 If we take a look here, you can see the 22 00:01:03.200 --> 00:01:07.519 big dip here that happened during that kelp dou fiasco 23 00:01:07.760 --> 00:01:11.840 that's now can't believe it about a month old. But 24 00:01:12.159 --> 00:01:16.159 after that big dip that of course wasn't directly related 25 00:01:16.159 --> 00:01:21.840 to Bitcoin, nevertheless impacted people's trust for crypto as a whole. 26 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:27.959 We saw Bitcoin climb back above eighty k, sentiment more 27 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:31.640 than recovered, got super positive just a week later, and 28 00:01:31.640 --> 00:01:36.560 then has slightly shrunk ever since. The ratio between all 29 00:01:36.680 --> 00:01:39.680 the bullish comments versus all the bearish comments you're seeing 30 00:01:39.680 --> 00:01:42.799 across social media right now sits at about one point 31 00:01:42.799 --> 00:01:46.519 three to five to one, which is just slightly above average. 32 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:50.439 So from a sentiment perspective, not really a big extreme 33 00:01:50.480 --> 00:01:53.959 in either direction. If anything, there's a very very slight 34 00:01:55.760 --> 00:01:59.439 fomocentric attitude from the crowd. Even though it slipped a 35 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:01.200 little over the past few weeks. 36 00:02:01.640 --> 00:02:03.680 Yeah, to your point, Bitcoin it kind of hit a 37 00:02:03.760 --> 00:02:06.359 wall at around eighty two k, couldn't get over to 38 00:02:06.359 --> 00:02:09.319 two hundred day moving average, and it's been sliding since. 39 00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:12.360 But I think people are still a little bullish to 40 00:02:12.400 --> 00:02:15.439 your point, because it didn't drop significantly. You know, bigcoin 41 00:02:15.560 --> 00:02:17.639 went out to seventy six k, But if we were 42 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:20.599 to crash below seventy k, maybe sentiment will you know, 43 00:02:20.599 --> 00:02:22.719 go down faight, Yeah. 44 00:02:22.520 --> 00:02:24.639 It's a very what have you done for me lately 45 00:02:24.759 --> 00:02:28.080 type of mindset with crypto traders, And understandably, it's a 46 00:02:28.159 --> 00:02:31.039 very fast moving market and people want to see results quickly. 47 00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:35.240 But you know, even just this signal from a couple 48 00:02:35.319 --> 00:02:39.800 days ago, this was Monday, once we saw that the 49 00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:42.680 ratio if you look at the top left of my 50 00:02:42.719 --> 00:02:47.120 screen there where the yellow little key shows point nine 51 00:02:47.159 --> 00:02:49.759 to eight, the ratio was showing that there were actually 52 00:02:50.199 --> 00:02:53.400 less bullish comments than bearish comments for the first time 53 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:57.479 since about a month ago. That was the signal that 54 00:02:57.520 --> 00:03:01.800 we were probably bottoming out. And sure enough, the drop 55 00:03:03.400 --> 00:03:07.000 got halted right when this happened, and then after it halted, 56 00:03:07.080 --> 00:03:12.120 that's when things rebounded back again. So now the question 57 00:03:12.240 --> 00:03:14.840 is are we going to start seeing this level of 58 00:03:14.879 --> 00:03:17.319 euphoria again, which does tend. 59 00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:19.680 To cause tops as we saw here. 60 00:03:20.840 --> 00:03:22.240 Or are we going to just stay in the middle 61 00:03:22.240 --> 00:03:25.639 because nobody quite knows what to think at the moment. 62 00:03:26.479 --> 00:03:29.759 Yeah, great point. So I'm curious what the MVRV looks like. 63 00:03:29.919 --> 00:03:33.000 Is Bitcoin overheated? Is it's starting to cool down on 64 00:03:33.039 --> 00:03:37.719 the thirty day plus the long term one year of view, mm. 65 00:03:37.680 --> 00:03:40.840 Hmm, Yeah, so we'll zoom out to three months here, 66 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:44.680 and we're going to look at the thirty day as 67 00:03:44.719 --> 00:03:47.960 well as the three sixty five day MVRV. From a 68 00:03:48.000 --> 00:03:51.680 thirty day perspective, it's still a slight bit overheated because 69 00:03:51.719 --> 00:03:53.719 obviously we've been on a heck of a run since 70 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:54.639 the beginning of April. 71 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:54.879 Here. 72 00:03:55.400 --> 00:03:59.159 Prices are overall up roughly. 73 00:03:59.280 --> 00:04:02.439 Call it seven teen sixteen percent or so since the 74 00:04:02.479 --> 00:04:07.080 beginning of April, and that's been enough to keep the 75 00:04:07.240 --> 00:04:11.879 thirty day average returns sitting at about plus five percent. 76 00:04:12.280 --> 00:04:14.840 So if you were to buy in now with the 77 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:18.399 expectation of kind of short term results, you'd be doing 78 00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:22.160 so with a little more risk than usual. Even though yes, 79 00:04:22.279 --> 00:04:24.920 we've declined a bit over the last ten to eleven days, 80 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:29.879 the thirty day perspective is still showing we're slightly at 81 00:04:30.040 --> 00:04:35.560 risk right now because of this long trend of I 82 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:39.279 guess I should say the midterm trend of bullish momentum 83 00:04:39.319 --> 00:04:42.759 we've seen. But from a long term perspective, this blue 84 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:45.439 line here is still good news because it shows the 85 00:04:45.480 --> 00:04:50.920 average traders still down about sixteen percent on average from 86 00:04:50.959 --> 00:04:56.399 all the wallets that we collect data on from anyone 87 00:04:56.720 --> 00:04:59.639 anyone that has moved money into last year, basically made 88 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:03.920 any sort of transaction they're showing up here and averaging 89 00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:07.759 all those together, they're down sixteen percent, meaning you'd still 90 00:05:07.800 --> 00:05:10.319 be buying into a lot of blood in the streets 91 00:05:10.720 --> 00:05:14.680 if your goal is to buy and hold for a 92 00:05:14.759 --> 00:05:17.360 year or more, which I know a lot of people 93 00:05:17.399 --> 00:05:19.199 watching do exactly that. 94 00:05:20.279 --> 00:05:23.399 Yeah, and to your point, you know, we are technically 95 00:05:23.399 --> 00:05:25.279 in a bear market. Even though we've seen a bit 96 00:05:25.319 --> 00:05:30.279 of a rally, there's still the potential for another downward move. 97 00:05:30.360 --> 00:05:34.240 And again that's not guaranteed, but given the timeline of 98 00:05:34.319 --> 00:05:36.680 the Foyer cycles and how we've seen that play out, 99 00:05:37.160 --> 00:05:39.279 to your point, if you're buying now for the next 100 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:41.879 year or two years, you're still in a good place. 101 00:05:42.920 --> 00:05:43.360 M hmm. 102 00:05:43.639 --> 00:05:45.800 Yeah, And you mentioned us being in a bear market. 103 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:48.839 I think that's a fair argument. Everyone has their own definition, 104 00:05:48.879 --> 00:05:52.079 of course, as to what a bull versus bear market is, 105 00:05:52.240 --> 00:05:54.800 what time frame you should look at. But if we 106 00:05:54.920 --> 00:05:57.120 just simplify it and look from our all time high 107 00:05:57.199 --> 00:06:00.560 right now, from back on October fifth or sixth, depending 108 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:04.079 on your time zone, bitcoins still down thirty eight percent 109 00:06:04.199 --> 00:06:09.720 from that from that peak when everyone was celebrating and 110 00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:12.079 breaking out the confetti over one hundred and twenty six 111 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:12.920 k BTC. 112 00:06:14.920 --> 00:06:18.800 Yeah, yeah, definitely makes sense. I'm curious what the whales 113 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:22.120 are doing because I've been looking at this chart on 114 00:06:22.519 --> 00:06:26.120 saniment over a few past few weeks and it's looking 115 00:06:26.160 --> 00:06:30.319 interesting with retail wallets seemingly dropping. But I wanted to 116 00:06:30.360 --> 00:06:31.720 go through this in detail with you. 117 00:06:32.680 --> 00:06:35.319 Yeah, you know, when we checked it out at the 118 00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:38.360 beginning of the month, it was looking good because we 119 00:06:38.480 --> 00:06:41.600 had seen retail these red and yellow lines up here, 120 00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:45.199 they were dropping off pretty rapidly for the first time 121 00:06:45.199 --> 00:06:48.720 in a long time. But then as of two weeks 122 00:06:48.720 --> 00:06:53.519 ago May sixth, they've started to accumulate pretty much as 123 00:06:53.639 --> 00:06:58.480 normal once again. While this green line, which represents the 124 00:06:58.519 --> 00:07:02.040 percentage of the overall sopply held by those key stakeholders 125 00:07:02.079 --> 00:07:05.360 ten to ten KBTC wallets that have a little over 126 00:07:05.399 --> 00:07:08.279 two thirds of all the supply, they're starting to drop 127 00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:11.079 off a little bit again, which is a concern. It 128 00:07:11.240 --> 00:07:13.639 means that this mild drop off we've seen over the 129 00:07:13.680 --> 00:07:17.639 past week is somewhat justified because the key stakeholders have 130 00:07:17.720 --> 00:07:20.240 been dumping, and if we look at it from the 131 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:24.319 peak on April twenty fourth, call it four weeks ago. 132 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:30.920 They've dumped since that time thirty eight and seventy bitcoin 133 00:07:31.040 --> 00:07:34.639 in total, which is about a quarter of a percentage 134 00:07:35.240 --> 00:07:37.120 of their overall holdings. 135 00:07:38.279 --> 00:07:42.000 Interesting if we go to a shorter timeframe, let's say 136 00:07:42.040 --> 00:07:45.959 the past month, But what does it look like, curious 137 00:07:46.759 --> 00:07:48.120 is kind of neck connecting. 138 00:07:48.199 --> 00:07:49.519 It gets a little flattened out. 139 00:07:49.639 --> 00:07:51.839 I mean, we if we won't have the time, we 140 00:07:51.879 --> 00:07:54.759 could just sort of straighten out the axes a little 141 00:07:54.800 --> 00:08:01.079 bit here point six eight. No, it's not gonna be 142 00:08:01.120 --> 00:08:04.160 worth it for the sake of this video, but yeah it. 143 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:08.439 I mean, I like to look at it from the 144 00:08:08.519 --> 00:08:11.120 perspective of like three or six months, just because you 145 00:08:11.160 --> 00:08:13.040 can see the ebbs and flows. 146 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:13.279 A little better. 147 00:08:14.199 --> 00:08:17.959 But nevertheless, if we zoom in a little bit, you 148 00:08:17.959 --> 00:08:20.279 can still kind of see, you know, the peak was 149 00:08:20.319 --> 00:08:23.879 back here April twenty fourth, and they're moving down, and 150 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:25.560 you can kind of see on the top left of 151 00:08:25.560 --> 00:08:29.240 my screen the percentage differences in all of these different tiers. 152 00:08:29.800 --> 00:08:32.639 The green the blue is basically just the absolute holdings. 153 00:08:32.679 --> 00:08:35.919 The green is the percentage of supply for the key stakeholders, 154 00:08:36.080 --> 00:08:40.120 and then yellow is absolute holdings for the tiny retail 155 00:08:40.159 --> 00:08:43.639 while it's and red is their percentage of supply. So 156 00:08:44.559 --> 00:08:48.440 basically small retail is moving up and large key stakeholders 157 00:08:48.799 --> 00:08:52.200 are moving slightly down, which is not the ideal combo. 158 00:08:52.320 --> 00:08:57.639 That said, it's not like they're dumping massively the key stakeholders. 159 00:08:57.240 --> 00:09:01.720 It's all pretty relative compared to like February. If we 160 00:09:01.759 --> 00:09:06.200 go back three months, there's still that pretty significantly with 161 00:09:06.279 --> 00:09:09.799 those key stakeholders up about eighty one a little over 162 00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:15.200 eighty one k btc since that bottom where we were 163 00:09:15.279 --> 00:09:18.879 threatened to go below sixty k and people were really 164 00:09:18.919 --> 00:09:19.559 getting scared. 165 00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:22.759 Yeah, yeah, that definitely makes sense. So I guess we 166 00:09:22.840 --> 00:09:25.799 have to watch as closely to see what happens. And 167 00:09:25.879 --> 00:09:28.200 especially you know, there's a correlation with the stock market. 168 00:09:28.200 --> 00:09:30.440 We've seen crypto move with the stock market, and that's 169 00:09:30.480 --> 00:09:34.879 been correcting because it was overheated. So you wonder if 170 00:09:34.919 --> 00:09:37.039 you know, these whales and market makers are all looking 171 00:09:37.080 --> 00:09:40.840 at the larger markets. Okay, that's pulling back. It's going 172 00:09:40.879 --> 00:09:44.480 to create a barer sentimental Let's do the same on crypto, right. 173 00:09:45.200 --> 00:09:45.799 Yeah. 174 00:09:45.960 --> 00:09:47.759 Yeah, we can see that the S and P five 175 00:09:47.840 --> 00:09:51.559 hundred hit yet another all time high back on Thursday, 176 00:09:51.600 --> 00:09:55.320 May fourteenth, and then declined a bit. Since they're rebounding 177 00:09:55.360 --> 00:09:59.360 a bit today, Today's a pretty green day in the markets, 178 00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:02.039 which is something I think a lot of people were 179 00:10:02.080 --> 00:10:06.080 waiting on. I saw some retailers starting to get a 180 00:10:06.080 --> 00:10:09.480 little bit bit of doom and gloom toward equities, thinking 181 00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:11.639 that we were finally hitting the top and now we 182 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:14.279 were going to fall back down. Well, at least for today, 183 00:10:14.960 --> 00:10:17.639 it looks like we're reversing course and moving back toward 184 00:10:17.639 --> 00:10:18.360 that all time high. 185 00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:18.679 Again. 186 00:10:19.759 --> 00:10:24.440 Coin hasn't quite reacted to that stock market bounce the 187 00:10:24.440 --> 00:10:27.240 way we would hope. They are up a little today. 188 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:31.559 Bitcoin is and several old coins, but it's pretty modest, 189 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:34.480 as Bitcoin still sitting at around seventy seven K and 190 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:38.519 was up to a little over eighty one K two 191 00:10:38.519 --> 00:10:42.200 weeks ago. Meanwhile, gold is down still, even though I 192 00:10:42.240 --> 00:10:44.960 did see gold and silver having a pretty decent day today. 193 00:10:46.279 --> 00:10:49.639 So yes, I do think that Bitcoin and the S 194 00:10:49.679 --> 00:10:52.000 and P are still pretty correlated. If we just zoom 195 00:10:52.000 --> 00:10:54.519 out like two months for the past two months ago, 196 00:10:55.080 --> 00:10:56.879 you can see the correlation more clearly. 197 00:10:57.399 --> 00:10:57.960 With here. 198 00:10:58.000 --> 00:11:00.960 I'll just hide gold for a minute, kid, how Bitcoin 199 00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:03.080 and green here and the S and P five hundred 200 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:08.879 and teal are pretty much matching neck and neck up 201 00:11:08.960 --> 00:11:13.639 until the end of last week, where Bitcoin nosedived a 202 00:11:13.720 --> 00:11:16.240 little over the weekend while the S and P was 203 00:11:16.360 --> 00:11:20.000 obviously not trading because it only trades on weekdays during 204 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:24.320 a certain amount of time on the US schedule, and 205 00:11:24.399 --> 00:11:28.679 so this was kind of the difference. Bitcoin really dropped 206 00:11:28.759 --> 00:11:32.000 and all coins did too this past weekend, while the 207 00:11:32.080 --> 00:11:35.480 S and pstd put So there is an argument that 208 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:39.960 Bitcoin can have some mild catch up to the S 209 00:11:40.039 --> 00:11:43.039 and P in order to justify that this correlation is 210 00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:43.720 still intact. 211 00:11:44.279 --> 00:11:47.039 Well, yeah, for sure. How about we look at all 212 00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:50.679 coins starting with Ethereum. I've seen a lot of bearish posts. 213 00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:53.399 People are a little bit down on Ether, which, you know, 214 00:11:53.480 --> 00:11:55.639 we look at the metrics and that might be good 215 00:11:55.679 --> 00:11:59.279 sentiments in the dump and it might be setting up 216 00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:01.679 for it to but who knows. 217 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:05.919 Yeah, I've seen all sorts of stuff with tom Lee 218 00:12:06.080 --> 00:12:11.080 and vitallic and the Ethereum Foundation having a lot of 219 00:12:11.159 --> 00:12:16.159 uncertainty surrounding it. From an actual sentiment perspective, it does 220 00:12:16.440 --> 00:12:19.159 seem to match the narrative that a lot of us 221 00:12:19.159 --> 00:12:22.720 have seen on our timelines with a little more negativity 222 00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:25.600 than we've seen in a while. Every alt coin tends 223 00:12:25.679 --> 00:12:28.480 to run a little hotter than Bitcoin when it comes 224 00:12:28.519 --> 00:12:33.480 to what an average ratio of bullish versus bearish comments are, 225 00:12:34.039 --> 00:12:36.440 so right here it's shown about one point twenty nine 226 00:12:36.440 --> 00:12:39.679 to one in terms of positive versus native comments. That 227 00:12:39.720 --> 00:12:42.559 would be fine for Bitcoin, but for Ethereum it's definitely 228 00:12:42.600 --> 00:12:44.960 on the low side. I mean, if we just zoomed 229 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:48.399 into the last month especially, you can see how drastic 230 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:53.200 the difference is. It's just gradually faded for the last 231 00:12:53.240 --> 00:12:57.440 four weeks or zero, this yellow ratio. I mean, we 232 00:12:57.440 --> 00:12:59.840 were up at about two and a half to one here, 233 00:13:00.559 --> 00:13:03.879 and that obviously was a top signal. This would have 234 00:13:03.879 --> 00:13:06.960 been the perfect time to sell the most positive ratio 235 00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:08.759 over the past month. 236 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:11.440 And then you see one more big. 237 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:16.120 Positive bullish surge here, and that was your ideal time 238 00:13:16.200 --> 00:13:19.799 to sell one more mild bullish signal here, and then 239 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:23.639 we drop again. So this has been a very good 240 00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:27.320 signal for Ethereum overall, and right now it's actually showing 241 00:13:27.360 --> 00:13:31.000 that people are leaning so negative that there's some justification 242 00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:34.240 for you to buy. While a lot of others are 243 00:13:34.279 --> 00:13:36.799 scoffing at the number two market gap at the moment. 244 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:39.799 Yeah, and I wonder, you know, if bitcoin has a 245 00:13:39.840 --> 00:13:42.279 little bit more steam in it and it does a 246 00:13:42.279 --> 00:13:44.159 bit of a rally following the S and P five 247 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:47.799 hundred and then NASDAC in a mini rally so to speak, 248 00:13:48.039 --> 00:13:53.120 not a major move. That once Bitcoin cools off rotational liquidity, 249 00:13:53.320 --> 00:13:55.759 then eat is so in the dumbs. Then it starts ripping, 250 00:13:55.799 --> 00:13:59.759 and then people fum all back into it, the same story, 251 00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:02.639 friend cycle, right exactly. 252 00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:05.799 Yeah, And I'm just checking out the ratio too, because 253 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:10.840 we've got stats on just the ratio between any ald 254 00:14:10.960 --> 00:14:14.960 coin versus bitcoins price, and look at the last six months. 255 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:19.000 I mean, man, that's pretty jarring looking at just like 256 00:14:19.200 --> 00:14:23.000 these five weeks here where the ratio between Ether and 257 00:14:23.120 --> 00:14:28.440 BTC is about negative thirteen and a half percent, while 258 00:14:28.480 --> 00:14:34.240 Bitcoin itself or ethereum itself is only down about ten 259 00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:38.759 ish percent. So yeah, it's just anytime Bitcoin retraces, ethereum 260 00:14:38.799 --> 00:14:42.279 seems to get hammered, like a lot of alt coins 261 00:14:42.320 --> 00:14:44.879 typically do. But ethereum usually holds its own a little 262 00:14:44.879 --> 00:14:49.399 better than this. So I'm curious what the MVRV looks like, 263 00:14:49.480 --> 00:14:51.559 because that's usually the other metric we can use to 264 00:14:51.639 --> 00:14:55.840 validate the sentiment, right, and is it where is it 265 00:14:55.879 --> 00:15:01.039 at as far as profitability, So, unlike Bitcoin, there is 266 00:15:01.120 --> 00:15:04.639 an opportunity on both the short and long term. Ethereum's 267 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:08.159 mvrvs at negative six percent. You remember Bitcoin was at 268 00:15:08.159 --> 00:15:11.919 plus five, so that's a pretty drastic difference. And on 269 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.799 top of that, the long term three sixty five day. 270 00:15:14.639 --> 00:15:17.039 Holders are down a little over. 271 00:15:17.320 --> 00:15:20.000 Negative twenty eight percent, or I should say under negative 272 00:15:20.000 --> 00:15:23.399 twenty eight percent. Both indicate that if you were to 273 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:27.679 buy in now, whether it's on a short term time 274 00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:31.759 frame strategy or a long term time frame strategy, you'd 275 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:34.399 be doing so with less risk than the average moment 276 00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:37.240 of investing in ethereum. 277 00:15:38.039 --> 00:15:42.720 Yeah. So obviously not financial advice, but this certainly looks good. 278 00:15:43.159 --> 00:15:46.080 I may want to, you know, add a little bit here, swing, 279 00:15:46.120 --> 00:15:48.519 trade some eat. Obviously I have a long term whole bag, 280 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:50.639 but you know, this might be a good spot to 281 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:53.240 grab some wait for it to market to rip then 282 00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:55.639 you know, as they say, buy to dipsel to rip. 283 00:15:56.679 --> 00:15:58.279 Yeah, I mean, if you want to just look at 284 00:15:58.279 --> 00:16:02.240 one soul metric on sand where you can just trust 285 00:16:02.240 --> 00:16:04.639 the math regardless of all the noise you're seeing, every 286 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:08.159 day on social media. M VRV does stay pretty true 287 00:16:08.639 --> 00:16:12.480 if you just buy while others are in pain, especially 288 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:15.240 when it's you know, both the short and long term 289 00:16:15.279 --> 00:16:19.679 are showing the same thing, like right here, both very 290 00:16:19.679 --> 00:16:23.679 negative ideal time to buy, both very positive ideal time 291 00:16:23.720 --> 00:16:27.080 to sell. Here again, both very positive ideal time to 292 00:16:27.120 --> 00:16:31.799 sell at least temporarily, but more often than not. You 293 00:16:31.840 --> 00:16:35.240 can trust these metrics, especially when they're both negative or 294 00:16:35.240 --> 00:16:39.320 both both positive. And this would be a pretty moderate, 295 00:16:39.960 --> 00:16:45.320 too strong bisignal if you just trust the zero sum 296 00:16:45.360 --> 00:16:49.720 game that is every cryptocurrency under the sun. Yeah, Plus 297 00:16:49.759 --> 00:16:53.320 you add the sentiment, which we just looked at, and 298 00:16:53.559 --> 00:16:56.840 you're building your case here right, you have multiple metrics 299 00:16:56.840 --> 00:17:00.679 screaming this thing is, this is a great opportunity to 300 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:02.399 again and again not financial advice. You got to look 301 00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:05.640 at other factors as well, but certainly these are strong 302 00:17:05.680 --> 00:17:06.920 straw metrics. 303 00:17:07.240 --> 00:17:07.759 Great point. 304 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:11.519 How about XRP, MVRV and sentiment. 305 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.720 Yeah, it's pretty similar to ethereum. The long term is 306 00:17:14.759 --> 00:17:19.200 even more negative, meaning there's an even stronger justification for 307 00:17:19.640 --> 00:17:23.680 a long term buy negative thirty five and a half percent. 308 00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:27.039 That's it's been consistently around there for a little over 309 00:17:27.079 --> 00:17:31.279 three months now. Meanwhile, MVRV the thirty day MVRB has 310 00:17:31.279 --> 00:17:34.319 dipped back into negative range, sitting at about negative three percent. 311 00:17:35.000 --> 00:17:38.480 So again that golden rule, they're both below. 312 00:17:38.279 --> 00:17:41.880 Zero, meaning you'd be buying, whether you're doing short or 313 00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:45.480 long term trading at a at a less risky point 314 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:50.359 than the average moment in xrp's eleven twelve year history. 315 00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:55.759 Now, yeah, I mean, wow, the long term is really underwater. 316 00:17:56.640 --> 00:18:00.480 Yeah, negative anything below negative thirty, no matter what outset 317 00:18:00.559 --> 00:18:04.920 you're looking at, that's something that should provide confidence in 318 00:18:04.960 --> 00:18:09.319 your investment because you're you're really you have something that 319 00:18:09.400 --> 00:18:11.880 quantifies how much blood in the streets there is, and 320 00:18:11.960 --> 00:18:16.400 you can buy knowing that your fellow peers that you're 321 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:19.359 trading against, you're not on the same team just because 322 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:22.799 they're investing in the same asset you're buying when those 323 00:18:22.839 --> 00:18:29.240 fellow peers have already experienced immense losses that you haven't 324 00:18:29.359 --> 00:18:36.160 because you'd be opening afresh a fresh new entry into XRP. 325 00:18:36.720 --> 00:18:40.240 So try to look at it from the perspective that 326 00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:44.160 you're trying to buy when others are low, and you're 327 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:47.200 selling when others are high. Not just the price but 328 00:18:47.440 --> 00:18:51.559 how others are actually performing, And. 329 00:18:51.559 --> 00:18:53.799 I'm curious what the sentiment looks like if it matches, 330 00:18:54.519 --> 00:18:57.880 you know, kind of how Etherorem's sentiment matches the NBRB. 331 00:18:58.279 --> 00:19:00.920 It's been pretty up and down lately, a little more 332 00:19:00.960 --> 00:19:03.000 down than up, which is a good sign. 333 00:19:03.640 --> 00:19:04.880 Pretty similar to Etherium. 334 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:09.119 It looks like a little below its average, which if 335 00:19:09.160 --> 00:19:13.920 I marked it would probably be around there. So one 336 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:17.640 point seven bullish for every one bearish comment. It may 337 00:19:17.680 --> 00:19:21.680 sound high, but XRP historically runs close to like a 338 00:19:21.720 --> 00:19:24.799 two to one ratio on average, so considering it's still 339 00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:27.200 below that is a good sign. And it's been below 340 00:19:27.240 --> 00:19:30.640 that for at least the last outside of this one 341 00:19:30.680 --> 00:19:34.960 outlier on the fourteenth, which was when everything popped a lot, 342 00:19:35.759 --> 00:19:39.319 the past ten days, it's been consistently more negative than 343 00:19:39.400 --> 00:19:42.880 usual in terms of sentiment. Interesting, so pretty much it 344 00:19:42.920 --> 00:19:45.319 looks like majority these all coins are getting a lot 345 00:19:45.319 --> 00:19:48.759 of negative sentiment because they haven't performed as well. People 346 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:51.599 were expecting a major rally following Bitcoin, but then Bitcoin 347 00:19:51.640 --> 00:19:54.480 gets rejected, and look, I'm not saying this whole rally 348 00:19:54.519 --> 00:19:57.720 is over, but still you can see why the crowd 349 00:19:57.799 --> 00:20:00.759 is not happy. Yeah, of course, so I mean, people 350 00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:04.119 just react to price sometimes regardless of what news is 351 00:20:04.160 --> 00:20:07.920 coming out, what integrations might be forming. You know, you 352 00:20:07.960 --> 00:20:12.319 had the rakutin partnership about a month maybe a little 353 00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:14.720 over a month ago now, and that caused a lot 354 00:20:14.759 --> 00:20:17.799 of hype. But it dies down if the price doesn't 355 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:20.359 react to it. And it's just always been that way. 356 00:20:22.160 --> 00:20:24.319 And if we want to talk about one that has 357 00:20:24.359 --> 00:20:27.559 been getting a lot of positive attention right now, you 358 00:20:27.559 --> 00:20:29.920 and I talked before they called out hype Tony, and 359 00:20:31.400 --> 00:20:34.200 I think this is a really interesting graph right here. 360 00:20:34.279 --> 00:20:39.240 This is essentially the positive versus negative funding rates. So 361 00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:42.559 how much lungs are paying shorts or how much shorts 362 00:20:42.599 --> 00:20:47.400 are paying longs across all different exchanges and average together. 363 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:50.759 And first and foremost, if you've been living under a 364 00:20:50.839 --> 00:20:54.160 rock just over the past week since May thirteenth up 365 00:20:54.279 --> 00:20:59.119 until now, hypes price is up about thirty five thirty 366 00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:04.359 six percent now, and you can see how much people 367 00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:09.039 did not believe in the first run and especially this 368 00:21:09.160 --> 00:21:13.119 second run. So all these red bars indicate that shorts 369 00:21:13.119 --> 00:21:21.319 were significantly outpacing longs according to perpetual perpetual contract funding rates. 370 00:21:21.680 --> 00:21:27.000 Talk about futures margin types of entries things like that. 371 00:21:27.799 --> 00:21:30.319 All of these big red bars indicate that people were 372 00:21:30.359 --> 00:21:34.799 betting against the price and then got super burned, especially 373 00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:37.000 on this final leg up that just happened in the 374 00:21:37.039 --> 00:21:41.880 past twenty four hours. Just if I just looked at yeah, 375 00:21:42.319 --> 00:21:46.359 a little under twenty four hours, called about twelve hours, Yeah, 376 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:49.359 hyper liquids up another ten percent, which is massive for 377 00:21:49.400 --> 00:21:50.160 such a short. 378 00:21:49.920 --> 00:21:50.599 Amount of time. 379 00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:55.000 And so finally in the last call it six to 380 00:21:55.039 --> 00:21:59.519 eight hours, we see the funding rate kind of reset 381 00:21:59.599 --> 00:22:03.519 back to normal. But I wouldn't be surprised if the 382 00:22:03.599 --> 00:22:07.359 shorts start to pour in again, especially if it drops 383 00:22:07.400 --> 00:22:10.720 back below fifty, which was a big psychological support level 384 00:22:10.720 --> 00:22:13.440 for a lot of people. And then you've got another 385 00:22:13.519 --> 00:22:17.240 by signal that starts. Because funding rates kind of like 386 00:22:17.319 --> 00:22:20.000 sentiment and kind of like MVRV, they work as a 387 00:22:20.000 --> 00:22:23.119 great counter signal, especially when you see extremes like this, 388 00:22:23.920 --> 00:22:26.319 tons and tons of shorts and people trying to profit 389 00:22:26.440 --> 00:22:29.680 off of the price going down. That's usually your entry 390 00:22:29.720 --> 00:22:32.720 to buy, not investment advice. You need to do research 391 00:22:32.799 --> 00:22:35.000 on why people are shorting and white prices are going 392 00:22:35.079 --> 00:22:38.839 up and down, But trusting the metrics you tend to 393 00:22:38.880 --> 00:22:42.039 do pretty well. When you counter signal against the shorts 394 00:22:42.640 --> 00:22:45.160 or counter signal against the lungs, which I'm sure has 395 00:22:45.160 --> 00:22:46.960 happened before for hyper liquid as well. 396 00:22:47.000 --> 00:22:48.960 If we go, ah, well, we don't. 397 00:22:49.160 --> 00:22:50.920 It looks like we only have data for the last 398 00:22:50.960 --> 00:22:56.279 couple months for hyper liquid, But if I just showed Bitcoin, 399 00:22:56.440 --> 00:23:00.359 for example, these would be the moments right here where 400 00:23:00.359 --> 00:23:04.039 there's like super lungs and sure enough that ends up 401 00:23:04.119 --> 00:23:06.680