WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:02.240 If you know me, you know I love to talk 2 00:00:02.240 --> 00:00:05.519 about climate change, one of my favorite topics, and mostly 3 00:00:05.559 --> 00:00:08.359 I'm being critical of what passes for climate science. But 4 00:00:08.400 --> 00:00:11.839 the guy that I'm bringing on again is well, he's 5 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:14.119 even more critical than I am, only he brings receipts 6 00:00:14.119 --> 00:00:17.760 and not just opinions. His name is doctor Matthew wie Leaky, 7 00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:22.079 and he writes a great substack blog. It's called Irrational Fear, 8 00:00:22.239 --> 00:00:24.120 and I link to it on my blog today. 9 00:00:24.199 --> 00:00:25.640 If you want to go check it out. 10 00:00:25.960 --> 00:00:28.160 It is paywalld, but it is worth every penny and 11 00:00:28.199 --> 00:00:29.280 it's not very expensive. 12 00:00:29.359 --> 00:00:31.879 So welcome back to the show. First of all, Matthew, 13 00:00:33.159 --> 00:00:34.399 thanks Mandy, thanks for having me. 14 00:00:34.560 --> 00:00:38.640 So you did something that I often wonder, and that 15 00:00:38.840 --> 00:00:43.159 is you went back and looked at predictions and about 16 00:00:43.159 --> 00:00:47.200 the climate and really just said were they right right now? 17 00:00:47.280 --> 00:00:49.640 What's fascinating me is I love it when I see 18 00:00:49.640 --> 00:00:52.600 in the newspapers we're fact checking no stradamis right, the 19 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:56.799 very famous prognosticator from hundreds of years ago, and yet 20 00:00:56.799 --> 00:01:01.399 there's never that same intellectual curiosity about climate change predictions. 21 00:01:02.039 --> 00:01:05.239 You have that intellectual curiosity. What did you find in 22 00:01:05.239 --> 00:01:06.719 this rather voluminous report. 23 00:01:08.319 --> 00:01:10.319 Yeah, I think that. I mean, we have to have 24 00:01:10.359 --> 00:01:13.840 some accountability for past practices. I think, you know, we 25 00:01:13.840 --> 00:01:15.879 will hear a lot of rhetoric from the media, and 26 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:18.719 you'll hear some of the normal characters. We'll say things 27 00:01:18.719 --> 00:01:21.439 like the oceans are boiling. We all know that's not true. 28 00:01:21.519 --> 00:01:23.799 I don't think anybody's going to make policy on that. 29 00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:26.959 But the official documents that the government puts out, which 30 00:01:27.359 --> 00:01:30.959 primarily comes from the Global Change Research Act that started 31 00:01:30.959 --> 00:01:33.480 in nineteen ninety, we make what's called the National Climate 32 00:01:33.519 --> 00:01:36.840 Assessment every year, well every like five years or so, 33 00:01:37.439 --> 00:01:42.560 and that document is used to drive policy. It gets 34 00:01:42.599 --> 00:01:45.480 involved in every policy decision that we have as a country. 35 00:01:45.519 --> 00:01:47.239 And so I wanted to go back and look at 36 00:01:47.239 --> 00:01:47.599 some of these. 37 00:01:47.599 --> 00:01:50.040 So I went back and looked at the National Climate 38 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:52.840 Assessments one and two. So the first one was published 39 00:01:53.079 --> 00:01:55.200 in two thousand and the second one was published in 40 00:01:55.200 --> 00:01:59.000 two thousand and nine. They're not exactly always five years apart, 41 00:01:59.799 --> 00:02:02.519 and so when I started to dig into this, I 42 00:02:02.599 --> 00:02:04.159 kind of started to see a lot of the same 43 00:02:04.239 --> 00:02:06.879 rhetoric that they were talking about before, and increase in 44 00:02:06.920 --> 00:02:11.759 heat waves and increase in hurricanes, heavy precipitation, and you know, 45 00:02:11.800 --> 00:02:14.520 if you only have predictions that are relatively close, it's 46 00:02:14.520 --> 00:02:17.080 hard to judge them. But we have now twenty five 47 00:02:17.159 --> 00:02:20.400 years since the first report came out, and that's a 48 00:02:20.479 --> 00:02:22.840 decent amount of time to start to look into these 49 00:02:22.919 --> 00:02:25.479 And with most of these things that I looked into, 50 00:02:25.599 --> 00:02:28.319 I realized why they're not going back and checking on themselves. 51 00:02:28.319 --> 00:02:31.280 It is because most of these predictions aren't happening. Sometimes 52 00:02:31.319 --> 00:02:34.919 they have the trend actually completely wrong in opposite other 53 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:38.479 times it's just moving and oscillating and you know, natural 54 00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.199 variability and there is no real clear trend. And so 55 00:02:41.800 --> 00:02:44.840 it's just this lack of accountability from all of these 56 00:02:45.000 --> 00:02:47.599 past predictions and how many times can you cry wolf 57 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:50.639 before the public and hopefully the policymakers stopped listening. 58 00:02:50.879 --> 00:02:52.840 Well, And that's really my point, and that's one of 59 00:02:52.879 --> 00:02:54.639 the reasons that I wanted to have you on because 60 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:58.319 it's not just hey, look at these goofy climate scientists. 61 00:02:58.360 --> 00:03:01.159 They got all this stuff wrong. We are using these 62 00:03:01.199 --> 00:03:04.479 reports to make policy that is having, in my view, 63 00:03:04.759 --> 00:03:08.759 an incredibly detrimental effect on our economy. In oil in Colorado, 64 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.599 we've shut down oil and gas. We know that energy 65 00:03:11.639 --> 00:03:13.800 prices of skyrocket, and I've got a story on my 66 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:17.240 blog today about now we're almost a ten percent delinquency 67 00:03:17.400 --> 00:03:20.759 for utility bills, and utility prices have gone up twelve 68 00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:24.039 percent in the last year. These are all choices that 69 00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:28.400 are being thrust upon the American people based on science. 70 00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:30.560 You know, we're always supposed to trust the science. 71 00:03:30.759 --> 00:03:33.960 But if we're not checking the science for accuracy, then 72 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:39.199 we are making massive trillion and trillion dollar decisions based 73 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:42.639 on garbage. Maybe not garbage, but certainly not good science. 74 00:03:43.840 --> 00:03:46.840 Yeah, and the foundational pillar of all of this is 75 00:03:46.879 --> 00:03:49.639 the science, right, because we're making these sacrifices. We're going 76 00:03:49.680 --> 00:03:51.120 to be willing to pay a little bit more on 77 00:03:51.199 --> 00:03:53.719 energy because the weather was going to get really bad. 78 00:03:54.120 --> 00:03:55.759 That's what they were telling us in two thousand. This 79 00:03:55.840 --> 00:03:58.360 is why you have to make all these sacrifices. And 80 00:03:58.439 --> 00:04:00.719 now we're seeing that that's not actually the case. These 81 00:04:00.759 --> 00:04:03.159 trends aren't trending in any of the way that they predicted, 82 00:04:03.159 --> 00:04:07.120 and so the foundational pillar, the reason for implementing all 83 00:04:07.159 --> 00:04:10.520 of this change and radically transforming our energy sector for 84 00:04:11.159 --> 00:04:15.080 the most part, is really not supported by the observational data. 85 00:04:15.080 --> 00:04:15.439 Anymore. 86 00:04:15.479 --> 00:04:17.879 It existed in their models in two thousand, I believe 87 00:04:17.920 --> 00:04:20.399 it did. I really think that they were convinced that 88 00:04:20.439 --> 00:04:22.120 this was what going to happen. But you know, the 89 00:04:22.160 --> 00:04:24.399 observational data is what we have to really go on, 90 00:04:24.639 --> 00:04:25.639 and it's just not there. 91 00:04:25.879 --> 00:04:29.680 So let's talk about two things. Number One, hurricanes, because 92 00:04:29.680 --> 00:04:32.839 they're flashy, right, And when I was living in Florida 93 00:04:32.879 --> 00:04:34.759 in two thousand and four, in two thousand and five, 94 00:04:34.839 --> 00:04:37.519 when we had a lot of storms make landfall, and 95 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:39.560 all of the climate alarmists, we're like. 96 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:41.079 Oh, there it is. 97 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:44.439 This is just the beginning of hurricane nightmares. And then 98 00:04:44.519 --> 00:04:46.519 after two thousand and four and two thousand and five, 99 00:04:46.839 --> 00:04:49.439 it was like crickets for a really long time. So 100 00:04:49.800 --> 00:04:52.639 let's start with hurricane data. What did they say was 101 00:04:52.680 --> 00:04:54.879 going to happen versus what has happened. 102 00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:59.839 So you hear the common increase in frequency, intensity, and 103 00:05:00.040 --> 00:05:05.680 recent heavy precipitation associated with hurricanes, increased landfalls that you know, 104 00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:08.160 they kind of cover the gamut of all of it. 105 00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:09.920 And when we go back now and look at the 106 00:05:09.959 --> 00:05:13.040 last twenty five years, we see that hurricane landfalls are 107 00:05:13.040 --> 00:05:15.879 well within natural variability. In fact, this year Florida didn't 108 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:18.680 get hit at all. That's not I mean, the US 109 00:05:18.839 --> 00:05:21.839 coastline didn't get a direct landfall at all, so that's 110 00:05:21.839 --> 00:05:22.439 pretty rare. 111 00:05:23.199 --> 00:05:25.199 None of this looks like it's trending. 112 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:27.079 What you're seeing now is they play a lot of 113 00:05:27.079 --> 00:05:32.120 these mental gymnastics where they're transitioning from frequency and intensity 114 00:05:32.160 --> 00:05:34.040 to rapid intensification. 115 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:36.759 This is a new metric that we haven't really. 116 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:38.959 Been able to measure since we've had these fancy satellites, 117 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:41.800 right and these crazy pilots willing to fly into these 118 00:05:41.879 --> 00:05:44.680 hurricanes where now we can actually measure them hour by hour. 119 00:05:44.839 --> 00:05:47.600 So you can see that as the story isn't working 120 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:50.800 out in the obser observational data, that they're morphing into 121 00:05:50.879 --> 00:05:54.879 these new kind of more difficult to get metrics where 122 00:05:54.879 --> 00:05:57.199 we can't really look back one hundred years and they say, well, 123 00:05:57.360 --> 00:06:00.279 we might have not seen the intensity and frequency going up. Look, 124 00:06:00.279 --> 00:06:04.480 they're rapidly intensifying. But overall, I mean, it's hurricane landfalls 125 00:06:04.519 --> 00:06:08.000 that we should be concerned with. There's absolutely no data 126 00:06:08.040 --> 00:06:10.560 that we're seeing a trend in that. Noah confirms that, 127 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:13.959 the EPA confirms that, so you know, that's the real 128 00:06:14.040 --> 00:06:15.879 metric that we should be worried about, because that's where 129 00:06:15.920 --> 00:06:17.319 we lose lives and property. 130 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:21.480 I would go one step further in that now because 131 00:06:22.079 --> 00:06:26.160 and this is me speculating, it seems that the meteorologists 132 00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:28.519 who work in hurricane alley, who are going to be 133 00:06:28.560 --> 00:06:31.040 talking to the people who are in the line of 134 00:06:31.120 --> 00:06:34.519 the storm, they because they have bought into the narrative 135 00:06:34.519 --> 00:06:36.800 that is going to make storms, you know, more powerful 136 00:06:36.800 --> 00:06:40.279 and more damaging. Now we have a greater sort of 137 00:06:40.360 --> 00:06:46.199 pre hurricane threat level coming from meteorologists, and that's damaging 138 00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:49.720 because people stop listening when you keep telling them that 139 00:06:49.720 --> 00:06:51.759 there's going to be a twenty foot storm surgeon, that 140 00:06:51.800 --> 00:06:54.600 there's going to be damaging winds and everything's going to 141 00:06:54.639 --> 00:06:56.319 be flattened, and then it doesn't happen. 142 00:06:56.399 --> 00:06:57.120 And I know this. 143 00:06:57.079 --> 00:07:01.560 From experience of living in a hurricane alley. People stop 144 00:07:01.639 --> 00:07:04.519 listening and then that gets dangerous. So I wonder how 145 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:08.879 much of that sort of feeds into these prediction models 146 00:07:08.959 --> 00:07:11.040 that are saying to people, this is going to be 147 00:07:11.079 --> 00:07:12.839 the worst storm ever. And then when it kind of 148 00:07:12.839 --> 00:07:16.000 comes through and it's a category two, which isn't that bad, 149 00:07:16.600 --> 00:07:18.439 people just discount. 150 00:07:17.879 --> 00:07:20.360 That In the future I do. I'm very concerned about that. 151 00:07:22.040 --> 00:07:22.800 No, I think you're right. 152 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:25.240 I think there is a big psychological aspect to that, 153 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:28.040 to whether the public is going to listen to experts 154 00:07:28.040 --> 00:07:30.319 and warning systems. I think they play a lot of 155 00:07:30.319 --> 00:07:32.759 games too. Now that everybody has a camera, you see 156 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:36.160 all the images. Now, you know, constantly somebody's showing an 157 00:07:36.160 --> 00:07:38.399 image of a hurricane somewhere, because there's if there's not 158 00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:41.000 one landing year, there could be a typhoon in the Philippines, 159 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:43.519 for example, And so you know this this this kind 160 00:07:43.560 --> 00:07:46.399 of if it bleeds, it leads, really does it drives 161 00:07:46.399 --> 00:07:48.720 this whole climate thing. The more destruction, the more the 162 00:07:48.839 --> 00:07:52.360 narrative fits, and that drives everybody's fear up. And my 163 00:07:52.480 --> 00:07:54.800 whole argument is it's not in the data. That's why 164 00:07:54.800 --> 00:07:57.759 I name my substack irrational fear, because it's if you 165 00:07:57.759 --> 00:07:59.600 look at the data, it's not a rational fear to 166 00:07:59.639 --> 00:08:02.920 be afraid of hurricanes increasing and you know, damaging the 167 00:08:03.000 --> 00:08:05.040 US coastline. Obviously it's going to happen. It's going to 168 00:08:05.079 --> 00:08:07.720 happen again. But it's no trend that this is some 169 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:11.000 sort of runway train where where climate change is driving 170 00:08:11.040 --> 00:08:13.879 these more you know, they call them super charged hurricanes, right, 171 00:08:14.120 --> 00:08:15.879 that's just not in the observable data. 172 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:18.800 So here in Colorado, we don't have to worry about hurricanes, 173 00:08:18.800 --> 00:08:21.439 but we do have to worry about drought. And drought 174 00:08:21.519 --> 00:08:23.439 is the big thing that we have to worry about 175 00:08:23.439 --> 00:08:25.360 when it comes to food production and everything else. 176 00:08:25.439 --> 00:08:27.560 Drought is what led us to the dust Bowl. 177 00:08:27.879 --> 00:08:30.480 While that and bad farming practices back in the nineteen 178 00:08:30.519 --> 00:08:32.960 twenties and thirties. So what did they predict for drought 179 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:34.080 back in twenty twenty. 180 00:08:35.279 --> 00:08:37.320 Yeah, so they go back and forth. 181 00:08:37.919 --> 00:08:42.639 The first NCA one, so that's the National Climate Assessment one, 182 00:08:42.879 --> 00:08:47.720 talks about heightened drought in the Southwest and regional droughts 183 00:08:47.759 --> 00:08:51.360 in the west. The second one increases that even into 184 00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:55.600 the south and the southeast. The NOAH and the EPA 185 00:08:55.799 --> 00:08:59.559 monitor this constantly. We have real time now remote sensors 186 00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:01.919 all over the place. So we have what's known as 187 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:06.120 a Palmer Drought Index, and that's essentially just a scale 188 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:09.159 that we use to try to identify for really getting 189 00:09:09.240 --> 00:09:11.679 much drier or much wetter regionally. 190 00:09:11.559 --> 00:09:14.240 And as a whole nation. And if you look back 191 00:09:14.279 --> 00:09:15.720 at that, we have data that goes. 192 00:09:15.519 --> 00:09:19.200 Back to eighteen ninety, and there's just no reason to 193 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:21.840 think that this is trending in any direction. We recently 194 00:09:21.879 --> 00:09:23.600 did have a little bit of a drought area, but 195 00:09:23.639 --> 00:09:27.279 the late twenty tens were kind of wet, the nineties 196 00:09:27.279 --> 00:09:30.679 were very wet, and so you have this oscillation where 197 00:09:30.720 --> 00:09:32.399 you kind of move in and out, and that has 198 00:09:32.440 --> 00:09:35.159 a lot to do with ocean circulation patterns and these 199 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:38.559 these large long term scales that we don't really fully 200 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:41.639 understand yet because we haven't been monitoring the Earth's system 201 00:09:41.720 --> 00:09:44.679 for that long. But nothing in the data would suggest 202 00:09:44.759 --> 00:09:50.000 that we're driving towards drought. I think that the infrastructure 203 00:09:50.279 --> 00:09:53.320 that we have for managing water has not been updated 204 00:09:53.360 --> 00:09:56.399 in a long time. California, for example, hasn't added any 205 00:09:56.440 --> 00:09:59.440 surface capacity since the late seventies, even though their. 206 00:09:59.320 --> 00:10:00.600 Population had as doubled. 207 00:10:00.840 --> 00:10:03.679 So we have a lot of mismanagement in water, but 208 00:10:03.879 --> 00:10:07.480 it's not coming from the fact that climate is increasing drought. 209 00:10:07.600 --> 00:10:08.720 And you know, even. 210 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:10.799 Though there are areas that have seen increased drought and 211 00:10:10.799 --> 00:10:14.440 there's areas that have seen increased precipitation, there's just no overall. 212 00:10:14.080 --> 00:10:14.840 Long term trend. 213 00:10:14.840 --> 00:10:17.360 I think water mismanagement has a lot more to do 214 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:19.240 with our issues than climate change. 215 00:10:19.799 --> 00:10:23.320 Is there any area of the initial climate assessment where 216 00:10:23.320 --> 00:10:26.759 they nailed it right, like, dang, guys, great job, got 217 00:10:26.759 --> 00:10:29.120 it one hundred percent. Is there any specific area where 218 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:31.000 you can say they got that right. 219 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:35.799 So the thing that's most on trend, where we're actually 220 00:10:35.799 --> 00:10:39.279 seeing something that's increasing, would be heavy precipitation events. So 221 00:10:39.360 --> 00:10:43.159 these are short term events where we have a very 222 00:10:43.240 --> 00:10:46.480 high increased amount of precipitation. We do start to see that. 223 00:10:46.799 --> 00:10:48.799 There's some arguments that that has to do with just 224 00:10:48.879 --> 00:10:51.480 having a little bit of warmer weather and warmer atmosphere 225 00:10:51.519 --> 00:10:54.279 holds more moisture. You know, people have probably seen no 226 00:10:54.480 --> 00:10:56.600 experience that you go skiing, you get very dry. You 227 00:10:56.639 --> 00:10:58.440 go down to Florida, it's warm. 228 00:10:58.240 --> 00:10:58.840 And very wet. 229 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:02.399 That's because that air capacity to hold water increases as 230 00:11:02.440 --> 00:11:04.360 you increase temperature, and so that. 231 00:11:04.279 --> 00:11:05.519 Kind of makes sense to us. 232 00:11:06.039 --> 00:11:08.720 Most people don't know that liquid fresh water is minuscule 233 00:11:08.759 --> 00:11:11.720 on the planet. It's only about two percent of all 234 00:11:11.759 --> 00:11:14.279 of the water budget. Most of that's locked up as ice. 235 00:11:14.679 --> 00:11:17.039 So I would argue that if we could increase our 236 00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:19.879 flood infrastructure and think about this a little bit, this 237 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:22.120 a little bit of increase in heavy precipitation may be 238 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:24.879 a really good thing for adding more fresh water to 239 00:11:24.919 --> 00:11:27.720 the surface where places like the southeast, that's the primary 240 00:11:28.279 --> 00:11:30.320 use of waters surface water. So I would say that's 241 00:11:30.360 --> 00:11:32.559 the one place that they got it pretty close. 242 00:11:32.600 --> 00:11:33.159 We're seeing it. 243 00:11:33.159 --> 00:11:36.200 I wouldn't say it's abnormal increase, but we are seeing 244 00:11:36.240 --> 00:11:40.279 a trend that is continuously increasing in these heavy precipitation. 245 00:11:39.679 --> 00:11:41.519 Events in terms of key. 246 00:11:41.639 --> 00:11:45.120 So they got it exactly wrong. They got it exactly opposite. 247 00:11:45.159 --> 00:11:47.919 We're seeing less days above ninety five degrees and they 248 00:11:47.960 --> 00:11:49.080 predicted way more. 249 00:11:49.159 --> 00:11:51.840 So you know, it's hit or miss. But overall, I 250 00:11:51.879 --> 00:11:53.919 would I would give them, you know, a D for 251 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:55.080 their predictions. 252 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:58.240 So moving forward, and this is one of the things 253 00:11:58.279 --> 00:12:00.600 that I've had people say, well, you know, science is 254 00:12:00.639 --> 00:12:03.759 always getting better, the technology is always getting better. 255 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:05.240 We're always able to know more. 256 00:12:05.519 --> 00:12:10.480 But to your point about the very brief amount of 257 00:12:10.559 --> 00:12:15.440 time that we even have significant rudimentary sort of weather 258 00:12:15.759 --> 00:12:20.159 you know analysis on a consistent basis, We've only been 259 00:12:20.159 --> 00:12:22.320 doing this for what like one hundred and thirty years 260 00:12:22.360 --> 00:12:25.840 with any real consistency, and that back then was with 261 00:12:26.000 --> 00:12:30.320 again almost you know, ancient style of barometric pressure measurement 262 00:12:30.360 --> 00:12:33.159 and things of that nature. So how do you how 263 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:37.559 would you argue or make the point that perhaps we're 264 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:40.759 maybe out ahead of our skis with proclamations that we 265 00:12:40.799 --> 00:12:45.360 one hundred percent understand what we're seeing when we only 266 00:12:45.440 --> 00:12:47.600 have that limited amount of data. 267 00:12:49.159 --> 00:12:50.799 Yeah, I think I think one hundred and thirty is 268 00:12:50.840 --> 00:12:53.320 a very generous number. I would probably say more like 269 00:12:53.440 --> 00:12:56.480 fifty years, because it's really satellites. Right, that the whole 270 00:12:57.200 --> 00:13:00.320 climate crisis was sold to us as a global problem 271 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:03.799 and it was going to take this radical transformation because 272 00:13:04.159 --> 00:13:05.440 things were going to go haywire. 273 00:13:05.559 --> 00:13:07.240 And in the early. 274 00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:10.120 IPCC assessments in the late nineties and even in this 275 00:13:10.200 --> 00:13:12.799 first National Climate Assessment in two thousand, we just didn't 276 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:15.240 really have enough data to make to say one way 277 00:13:15.320 --> 00:13:17.559 or the other. And so you know, it was fair 278 00:13:17.600 --> 00:13:20.360 game to make these predictions. But we're twenty five years later, 279 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:22.879 and we have more and more satellites, we have more 280 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:26.519 and more technology, remote sensing stations all over the planet. 281 00:13:26.919 --> 00:13:28.000 We have the data. 282 00:13:28.159 --> 00:13:31.559 So if it was so obvious, right, the science was settled, 283 00:13:31.639 --> 00:13:34.600 this was I was called a denier to question it. 284 00:13:34.679 --> 00:13:35.200 If it's so. 285 00:13:35.279 --> 00:13:37.960 Obvious, how come we have to do more and more 286 00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:42.000 gymnastical gymnastics to find the little things that are that 287 00:13:42.039 --> 00:13:44.200 are that are kind of getting a little bit wacky. 288 00:13:44.639 --> 00:13:46.159 If it was supposed to be so obvious and we 289 00:13:46.159 --> 00:13:48.639 were going to supposed to have this radical transformation, I mean, 290 00:13:49.159 --> 00:13:50.960 the way that it was sold to us was that 291 00:13:51.039 --> 00:13:52.639 this was just going to be right in our faces. 292 00:13:52.720 --> 00:13:55.000 I mean, there's going to be fires burning everywhere, and 293 00:13:55.000 --> 00:13:57.360 there's no water and the last time you're ever going 294 00:13:57.360 --> 00:13:59.720 to see a ski area because snow is going to disappear. 295 00:14:00.039 --> 00:14:02.519 I mean I heard all of these things that no 296 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:04.399 more snow was on the front of New York Times, 297 00:14:04.399 --> 00:14:07.799 and we're just seeing that all of this rhetoric was 298 00:14:07.960 --> 00:14:10.519 just for one reason, and it was for creating an 299 00:14:10.519 --> 00:14:15.279 emotional response and essentially taking money from the Western world. 300 00:14:15.360 --> 00:14:16.200 That was the motive. 301 00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:19.039 We now have the observational data none of it was 302 00:14:19.080 --> 00:14:21.840 coming true, and so why are we doing all this? 303 00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:23.960 So I agree wellheartedly. 304 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:27.279 I mean the reality is is that this is why 305 00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:30.399 I find this so concerning, that we're not having genuine, 306 00:14:30.960 --> 00:14:35.240 robust discussions about the wrongness of these predictions as we're 307 00:14:35.519 --> 00:14:36.840 decapping our own economy. 308 00:14:36.879 --> 00:14:39.639 I mean, especially here in Colorado, our governor. 309 00:14:39.320 --> 00:14:41.919 Is all in on net zero and it is going 310 00:14:41.960 --> 00:14:45.200 to cost a small fortune to move Colorado to where 311 00:14:45.200 --> 00:14:47.639 he wants it to be. And if it's all based 312 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:52.519 on bad intel, that is criminal. And yet because of 313 00:14:52.559 --> 00:14:56.360 the way the climate industry works, and Matthew, you probably 314 00:14:56.399 --> 00:14:58.840 know some of the scientists that I've spoken to since 315 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:00.600 I got my first show in two thou and five. 316 00:15:00.919 --> 00:15:04.080 If you have a theory that you want to test 317 00:15:04.480 --> 00:15:08.159 that does not end with it's man made global global 318 00:15:08.159 --> 00:15:12.200 climate change, it's man's fault. It is emissions. If that's 319 00:15:12.240 --> 00:15:15.759 not your theory, you can't get funding. No one will 320 00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:19.480 fund your study because the dogma is so entrenched that 321 00:15:19.559 --> 00:15:22.799 we can't even look at at other alternatives, like perhaps 322 00:15:22.799 --> 00:15:24.720 we should be spending this much time and energy on 323 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:28.759 mitigation instead of trying to change the climate. It feels 324 00:15:28.799 --> 00:15:32.360 like a don keyxty like quest based solely an ego 325 00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:33.039 at this point. 326 00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:37.399 Yeah, I mean, I'll tell you from a personal experience 327 00:15:37.440 --> 00:15:39.759 as a young academic trying to land some of my 328 00:15:39.799 --> 00:15:43.600 first grants and seeing the ideological stances that the funding 329 00:15:43.639 --> 00:15:48.320 agencies like NSF and NAH and NASA were taking. It's 330 00:15:48.360 --> 00:15:50.679 just I mean, you could you could see it all right? 331 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:53.279 You know, this was had nothing to do with science, 332 00:15:53.360 --> 00:15:55.440 This has nothing to do with finding the truth or 333 00:15:55.480 --> 00:15:57.879 anything like that. It was just let's just push this 334 00:15:58.240 --> 00:16:01.679 mantra down the road that has to stay alive no 335 00:16:01.759 --> 00:16:04.080 matter what. And we're just going to keep going down 336 00:16:04.120 --> 00:16:06.840 this road regardless of what the observational data says. And 337 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:08.879 if there's no money to do it, none of these 338 00:16:08.879 --> 00:16:11.279 young academics are going to go try to prove this anyway, 339 00:16:11.440 --> 00:16:14.559 so we'll have this what I call manufactured consensus. 340 00:16:14.919 --> 00:16:15.120 Right. 341 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:18.240 It's not a conspiracy where there's somebody up there like 342 00:16:18.559 --> 00:16:20.679 pulling the strings, but it is a conspiracy in the 343 00:16:20.679 --> 00:16:25.360 way that the system essentially is manufacturing a consensus, bying 344 00:16:25.440 --> 00:16:28.879 by having funding agencies, journals, essentially anyway to make your 345 00:16:28.919 --> 00:16:32.720 academic record. If you make that so ideological, then if 346 00:16:32.759 --> 00:16:34.879 you don't follow the you know, toe the line, you're out. 347 00:16:35.200 --> 00:16:36.559 I experienced that personally, and. 348 00:16:36.519 --> 00:16:40.279 So it creates this kind of false sense of consensus. 349 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:42.080 But really what you're doing is just kicking out people 350 00:16:42.159 --> 00:16:44.559 that don't agree. And so I think we should start 351 00:16:44.559 --> 00:16:46.720 with getting rid of some of these funding agencies and 352 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:49.759 their ideologies. They should be about the truth, regardless of 353 00:16:49.759 --> 00:16:52.360 where it takes you, especially now that we have all 354 00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:54.720 this observational data that proves that a lot of these 355 00:16:54.720 --> 00:16:55.840 predictions were incorrect. 356 00:16:56.120 --> 00:16:59.559 A text sur just as this, Mandy oh As chat 357 00:17:00.039 --> 00:17:02.080 if climate change is real? And see what your answers. 358 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:05.039 I will all do that chat is my personal assistant. Now, 359 00:17:05.079 --> 00:17:08.240 I'm Matthew, So I asked Chad everything. Does your guests 360 00:17:08.279 --> 00:17:11.440 have an opinion on the movie Climate. Somebody's trying to 361 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:13.240 get me to watch this movie. I don't really care. 362 00:17:13.319 --> 00:17:14.599 I don't know what it's about. 363 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:17.559 Is it called Climate the movie? 364 00:17:17.599 --> 00:17:21.079 Because I'm in that that's mad for a skeptical take. 365 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:22.839 I'm not sure. I haven't. I haven't. Is there a 366 00:17:22.839 --> 00:17:24.240 new one coming out? I can look. 367 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:25.200 I don't know if that's it or not. 368 00:17:25.240 --> 00:17:29.960 I only get so much information regarding water mismanagement. Recently 369 00:17:30.039 --> 00:17:34.039 visited Hoover Dam. Does that play into the water mismanagement. 370 00:17:34.039 --> 00:17:36.000 I'm gonna go one step further, Matthew, and to partially 371 00:17:36.039 --> 00:17:38.680 answer this question in my view, because now we have 372 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:40.559 the states trying to figure out how to divvy up 373 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:42.680 the Colorado River, and they're supposed to have already done this, 374 00:17:42.720 --> 00:17:45.559 and they can't come to an agreement. My question is 375 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:48.519 is why is California getting any of the water because 376 00:17:48.559 --> 00:17:53.920 they are literally on the Pacific Ocean, build desalinization plants 377 00:17:53.920 --> 00:17:55.319 and leave our water alone. 378 00:17:55.400 --> 00:17:57.319 I mean, but that's a whole different conversation. 379 00:17:58.079 --> 00:18:01.960 Well, unfortunately, desalization takes a lot of energy, and they 380 00:18:01.960 --> 00:18:04.720 are very energy poor at the moment because they are 381 00:18:04.759 --> 00:18:07.920 also just gung ho on this you know, green energy thing. 382 00:18:07.960 --> 00:18:11.400 But that the main thing with the Colorado River Lake 383 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:12.119 Meat Lake POW. 384 00:18:12.720 --> 00:18:15.319 This was the Colorado River Compact. It was signed in 385 00:18:15.359 --> 00:18:15.839 the twenties. 386 00:18:16.160 --> 00:18:19.559 The twenties were really an abnormally wet decade and so 387 00:18:19.640 --> 00:18:22.160 when they originally signed this, they made predictions. 388 00:18:22.160 --> 00:18:23.759 This is one of the again a faulty. 389 00:18:23.960 --> 00:18:26.720 You know, we have to be very careful about our predictions, 390 00:18:26.720 --> 00:18:28.759 and we have to understand that the planet's not just 391 00:18:28.759 --> 00:18:30.000 going to go along with this. There's a lot of 392 00:18:30.039 --> 00:18:34.880 natural variability. They estimated a significantly larger amount of water 393 00:18:35.200 --> 00:18:37.440 than what they got for the next decades, and that's 394 00:18:37.480 --> 00:18:39.759 what we think is now the average. We just think 395 00:18:39.799 --> 00:18:42.440 that there was this little heightened blip in the twenties 396 00:18:42.480 --> 00:18:46.119 and so the allocations were wrong from the start. And 397 00:18:46.680 --> 00:18:49.720 you know, population has been growing dramatically and throughout the 398 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:52.039 Southwest and the west, and so you add all those 399 00:18:52.079 --> 00:18:55.359 factors together, you make you have some water issues. But 400 00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:58.200 none of this is really related to climate or CO two. 401 00:18:58.839 --> 00:19:02.599