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Speaker 1: Yep, good job guys. All right, Adam trigger here it

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is Friday, and with Tokyo Brandon and with Brian Leonard,

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it is time for Total Bases, the final show of

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the week. They gave us a full slate today, so

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no time to kill today. We're going to get right

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into it, get to as many games as we possibly can.

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And was kicking it back and forth with the guys

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as to what the feature was going to be, which

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is really just the first one we talk about. We

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do tend to go a little longer on that one,

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but we decided on Philly Yankees. It's national TV, at

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least what they call national TV now in this country,

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Brian Leonard, which means you have to have a streaming service,

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but the whole country will get Phillies Yankees on Apple TV.

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So we'll start with you, Phillies Yanks. How are you

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seeing this one?

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Speaker 2: Walker going against Warren Yanks at home? Roughly about a

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one fifty five favorite total of ten to the over.

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It all been nine and a half over twenty, and

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there has been some tens. I'm even seeing some ten

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and a half under twenty. But the over to me

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looks like the way I would look at this one

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Walker on the season comes in with a three point

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seventy five ERA expected the RA three point nine zero.

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He's got ten starts on the season, twenty one games

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overall three point seven five ERA, three point nine zero expected,

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one point three eight on the whip. His whip the

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last three years has been a real struggle. His walk

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rate this year nine point two, last year nine point seven.

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The year before nine point seven league average is eight

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point four. And also in the last three years, his

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strikeout rates have gone down. Last year dropped all the

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way allowed to fifteen point two. This year it's at

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nineteen point four, slightly better, which gives him a ten

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point two overall strikeout onnchwalk, which is not very good.

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He doesn't have good extension, only in the twelfth percentile,

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wiff rate tenth percentile, fastball velocity in the twentieth percentile. Now,

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the good thing for Walker is he's really cut back

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on his foresaying he only throws a ten percent of

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the time. That ranks fifth out of his six pitches

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that he does throw, throws the cutter most often, but

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he's got anywhere from six to thirty percent, so he's

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got He's a guy that when you remember him when

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he was young, and I remember him in the Seattle organization,

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he was a big thrower, big strikeout guy. As he's

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gotten older, he's learned how to pitch. In fact, you know,

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the last three seasons he's even not even come close

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to reaching one strikeout per inning. So he's a totally

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different pitcher. But he's from his standpoint, he's having a

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pretty good year. Because I thought he was just about

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done coming into this season. Will Warren four point nine

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to one ERA, four point zero six expected, so he's

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he's due for a little bit of odositive regression one

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point four to four on his whip. Last year it

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was one point nine. He only threw forty two innings

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last Year's at ninety nine right now. But his career,

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his career straight out to walk grade is sixteen point two,

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which is about league average SAT a little bit better,

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but he still has problems with the walks. Ten point

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seven percent this year, as I mentioned, eight point four

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is league average. He throws five pitches his four scene.

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He throws the most in ninety three point two. But

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as I mentioned yesterday, if you watch the show league

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average from a right hand or is ninety four point nine. No,

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he does have a good extension eighty first percentile strike

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percentage seventy ninth percentile, but chase rate only in the

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seventh ex of velocity average in the fifteenth walk grade,

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eighteenth hard hit thirteen. So we got two guys here

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that I'm not a big believer in, and we've got

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two really good offenses. In fact, you take a look

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at the WRC plus in the last fourteen days, we're

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looking at Philadelphia and Boston. Boston is twenty ninth. They're

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not hitting well right now, seventy two, just ahead of

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the Detroit Tigers. And Philadelphia's been a little bit better,

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but not as good as they've been earlier this season.

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They're only at ninety five. In fact, that's that's something

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that is a bit of a concern here for the

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over But I like the situation here. This is a

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good hitting ballpark, and the wind is blowing out at

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ten miles an hour, and if you're familiar with Yankee Stadium,

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it's already if you go to right field, short portion

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in right field. Now the wind's blowing out. With two

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questionable pitchers, I expect these offenses to wake up a

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little bit to now I kind of like the over.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, looking at this game, it seems like the Phillies

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would be like an auto pick here, but they're actually not.

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And if you look at the records of these teams,

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the Phillies have only won two more games than the

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Yankees have. I've never been a Taiwan Walker fan, really,

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but he's pitching a little bit better than warn I

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have Will Warren ring twenty five on a curve of thirty.

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He's been really bad, but like Brian said, I expect

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him to positively regress what would be the opposite of

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regress aggress I expect him to get better, let's put

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it that way. And if you look how he's performed

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against these Phillies, it's a small sample size of nineteen

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at bats against, but his average is only one point

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fifty eight without four to forty nine ops. Sample sizes

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a little small, though, so you can't really trust that

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too much, but it does indicate that he's good for

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at least one start. He's got good home stats. In

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fifty plus innings, he only has a three ERA at home,

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so uh, he's I think he's managing the walks pretty well.

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At the beginning of the season, he was terrible at

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walking people. He was one of my chronic walkers. But

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he's not anymore. Yeah with the Bullpens, Yeah, Philly's got

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a small advantage, but I give the Yankees the advantage

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at the plate, So I think the Yankees are I

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think the Yankees can take this one. I haven't bet

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it yet, but I haven't bet it yet, but if

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I did, it would be with the Yankees.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. I think if I I

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don't think this is one, I will bet, but I'm

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with you TV. If I if I was gonna bet here,

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it would be the Yankees. Never been a big Taiwan

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Walker Phil, I guess going back to like Brian references

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Mariners days and early early in his career, he was

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someone that I had my eye on. But Taiwan Walker

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is on the Phillies as has never been someone that

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you know, really checks the boxes for me. I actually

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think he's he's having a Yeah, the season he's having

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for his standards, that's very good. I didn't expect him

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to do this good. I think I'm eeting on record

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somewhere saying I didn't think he'd be in the rotation after,

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you know, maybe like six weeks into the season. I'm

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surprised he's still getting run out there as a starter.

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I thought this would have been Mick Abel, but they've

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gone a different direction. I Will I will speak to

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that though, And that's what makes that's what makes Will

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Warren very difficult to handicap these teams, Like the second

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a guy shows a little bit of promise at Triple A,

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these teams, whether it be out of necessity or just

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wanting to maximize on their quote unquote investment, they're bringing

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these guys up to the big leagues. Now. In the

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Yankees case, this was more a need based move, right

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because you had Garrett Cole go down. Luis Heel was hurt.

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So so this was a scenario where they just they

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needed Warren up there, they needed a fifth starter. He

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probably would have been better served with another year at

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Triple A. And you could say that there's a whole

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host of guys that are in the majors right now

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that are that are younger guys that would have benefited

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from a half season to a full season at Triple A,

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which is what ninety percent of pitchers did like if

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you go back ten years before all these arm injuries

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and then before these teams got in the mindset where

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we can't miss on, we can't miss valuable time if

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the guy is the guy right, So like if you're

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sitting on like a MISERASKI, it's like the mindset of

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organizations says, well, we don't want a waste starts that

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he could be helping us at the big league level

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at Triple A. The problem is with the non sort

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of top two or three percent of guys. You get

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a Will Warren who actually should be it. Like he's

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he's got all of the tools to be a very

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good pitcher. But when you're when you're really trying to

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refine it at the big league level, it's very difficult

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to do. So you look at a guy like Warren.

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He's got a really nice fastball. You know, he spots

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it well, but he hasn't really he hasn't really developed

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the you know, the sweeper. Like his five pitch pitch

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pitch mix. Sorry I can't speak right now. His his

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pitch mix is not super effective because he's not getting

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a ton of swing and miss off of the fastball.

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So he spots the fastball well locates it, but doesn't

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have an outpitch that gets big leaguers out. So he's

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not you know, he'll he'll generate some strikeouts, but he's

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not getting a ton of swing and miss, and so

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that contact has turned into some of the blow ups

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you've seen from him, because that seems to be what

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happens to Warren. He's either pretty good or when he struggles,

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it's the blow up start. So but all of that aside,

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I think he's pretty good. I think had this guy

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been down at Scranton for like another six months, he

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comes up and you're probably like, wow, he's a pretty

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solid big league starter. So I'm going to continue to

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sort of like, right, you know, look for that from him.

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It makes it tough to lay this price. But again,

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I'm a Will Warren believer far more than I am

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in Walker and I and the Yankees are still just

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a slightly better team. So I do like the Yankees

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as well. Here with TV on this one, all right,

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Truman mourning. Everyone excited to be in the live show.

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We love having you live. We equally love having you

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on demand. We love having you on Twitter, which is

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now fixed. That's why it was I fixed the Twitter stream,

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so if you choose to watch there, that is now up.

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But as always, give us a like, give us a subscribe.

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It helps the show a ton and go get Brian

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Leonard's page a look, because he's got a five percenter tonight.

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He doesn't like to promote himself, I'll promote him. Don't

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have anything up for sale, So go ahead to Brian

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Leonard's page, grab that five per center and and let's

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let's move it along. I had a starred comment. Uhjave

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Cash wants to know any opinion on Dbach's Pirates Diamondbacks

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are sellers apparently Josh Naylor moving last night. Although Brian Leonard,

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this is like one of those unique things where Arizona

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might be selling some pieces off, but they're not necessarily

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out of it. I mean, like there, it's it's weird.

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They're kind of a team that is somewhat in the mix.

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Yet they're probably gonna move their their their veterans. So

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how do you how do you deal with a team

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like that? Do you think it's bad or good or indifferent?

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Because you're gonna get younger guys getting a chance.

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Speaker 2: Well, they've come out and said they expect to move

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six of their players. I was interested in Nelson because

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he's been pitching much better as of late. But the

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problem is now that they have now they're going to

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do that, all the players are sitting there thinking, well,

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am I going? Am I here? What's what's what's the deal?

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Or why are we giving up? You know, they're still

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playing their three games. What costs them was they just

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got swept and that was the determining factor I think

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going into that if they sweep their buyers, if they

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get swept their sellers, and they did get swept, and

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they're in, you know, obviously a very good division. Other

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than the Rockies, everybody else is a possible playoff team,

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so that is a concern. Nelson against Burrows here. The

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line originally was in the overnight was Nelson minus one

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thirty plus one ten. Now we're seeing a little bit

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of money all in Pittsburgh as they figure that's Arizona.

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Right now, they don't know who will be in the lineup.

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We've got a week to go for the for the

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trade deadline, so it couldn't move at any time, so

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we will see. They did say when David Smith gets

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back from injury, he will be their starting first baseman.

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They're not making any other trades in that regard, but

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Nelson against Burrows here and we take a look at

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the statcast numbers. Nelson, as I mentioned, he's been pitching

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much better lately than he had earlier in the season,

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comes in with a three point five to two ERA

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expected ERA four point one eight, his whip one point

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oh six. That's very good compared to what he has

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done in the past the past two seasons as whip

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was one point twenty five and one point four to two.

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He's getting that under control a little bit. In fact,

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his walk rate in his UH in his career is

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00:12:37,519 --> 00:12:40,519
six point eight and league average is eight point four,

239
00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,399
so he did have a couple of situations last couple

240
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of years. This year his walk rate is better than

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00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:49,080
fifty percent the fifty eight percent TILE, so he's doing

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better in that regard. He's strike out on schwalk ratio

243
00:12:52,919 --> 00:12:55,679
twelve point seven, still not where we want to see it.

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00:12:56,279 --> 00:12:59,360
Average Jaxon velocity twelve percent TILE with rate fourteenth to

245
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Chase twelve or excuse me, twenty two. His extensions really

246
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,399
good eighty fifth percentile and the only problem is he

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throws the for seamer sixty three percent of the time,

248
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and I'm not big on that, but it is at

249
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ninety five and a half percent or ninety five and

250
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,720
a half miles per hour, which is better at than

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Nick gaverage. So I could see him throwing that a

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little bit more. And that's the reason why he throws

253
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:26,320
it a lot. But if you get a good hitting

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fastball team he does he only throws the cutter twelve percent,

255
00:13:29,879 --> 00:13:36,240
slider ten, curve ten change four predominantly good fastball hitting

256
00:13:36,279 --> 00:13:39,759
team could really get to him. Mike Burrows in Pittsburgh,

257
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Burrows is you know, he's been an afterthought for the

258
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most part this season, but he hasn't pitched bad. Is

259
00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:46,759
he gonna raise a little bit high? Four point seven

260
00:13:47,159 --> 00:13:49,919
expected four point three eight, whip one point four to

261
00:13:49,919 --> 00:13:54,399
one not the greatest His career walk right is ten

262
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,519
point one, so that's a bit of a concern. Strek

263
00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:01,600
out rate twenty three percent in his career. So overall,

264
00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:04,919
you know, not something we're looking we're looking for. Chase

265
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:09,159
rate third percentile, barrel right eleventh, hard hit percentage twelve

266
00:14:09,919 --> 00:14:12,039
In fact, other than his fastball ve lost here, which

267
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,320
is about in the sixty fifth percentile. He throws it

268
00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,320
at ninety five point two. He has not done much,

269
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,200
but he's a young kid and now only twenty five force.

270
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We throws forty three percent of the time. Has got

271
00:14:24,519 --> 00:14:27,279
the change, slider and curve. I'll use at least twelve

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00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,720
percent or more UH in this game here with the

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current number of what it is, with Nelson being about

274
00:14:36,159 --> 00:14:40,320
a one one o eight favorite nine. I wanted to

275
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play Arizona, but at this point we don't know who's

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going to be in a lineup Pittsburgh out of team

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I trust. If you go back the last you know,

278
00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:55,399
fourteen days Pittsburgh, it's eighty two on the WRC plus

279
00:14:55,600 --> 00:15:01,360
or as the opposition today would be would be Arizona

280
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and they are what are we looking at their fifth

281
00:15:06,919 --> 00:15:09,960
in one nineteen, so they're hitting better. If they're guys

282
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,840
are at the starter are still in the game. I

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think they have a little bit of an advantage here,

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but without knowing anything about the lineups yet, I will pass.

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But I think there may be value on Arizona if

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they come out with their regular starting lineup.

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Speaker 3: Here, guys, I have a four percent playout in MLB.

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Brian has a five percent playout. I haven't been doing

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well the last few days, but I'm still number one

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in all sports profit in twenty twenty five at wager Talk.

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So grab our plays. All of us put free plays

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up as well. Leave a comment and like the replay

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00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,120
of this video. It helps us out a lot. So

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regarding this game, Ryan Nelson, Mike Burrows, Yeah, the Diamondbacks

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when they start dealing with their players, you know, guys

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in the locker room, they know that they know that

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the team season is basically over. So but even though

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they know the season's over, these guys are mainly playing

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for stats only. I mean, nobody thinks the Diamondbacks are

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gonna win the World Series. Even the players don't think

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they're gonna win the World Series in the locker room,

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but they're playing for stats. They're playing for contracts, so

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there still is something to play for. It's not like

304
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,279
it's not like the wind is out of the sail

305
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,480
and they're all just gonna be up there with limp bats.

306
00:16:22,519 --> 00:16:26,120
You know they're gonna try, but yeah, the the oomph,

307
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,039
a little momentum is gone because they know it's over.

308
00:16:29,159 --> 00:16:32,200
They know Suarez is gone, they know Gallon's gone. They

309
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know Merrill Kelly's gone. They know it. So they're still

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gonna swing for the fences though, and right Nelson is

311
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,320
a pitcher. He's still gonna pitch his hardest. And I

312
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,600
really like his stats against this team in the past.

313
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,200
I mean, he's got thirty eight at bats against him,

314
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:49,840
a one to fifty eight average and a four to

315
00:16:49,879 --> 00:16:52,320
sixty three oh ps. And I've said in videos before,

316
00:16:52,399 --> 00:16:55,440
I look at seven fifty as kind of the Mendoza ligne.

317
00:16:55,559 --> 00:16:59,159
He's way under that. So he's he's basically been these

318
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:03,840
batters Daddy throughout his career, and that's not against So

319
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,440
there was a back and forth in the chat yesterday

320
00:17:06,559 --> 00:17:09,279
saying I don't think against the team matters at all.

321
00:17:09,799 --> 00:17:12,279
I'm not saying this is against this team. It's against

322
00:17:12,279 --> 00:17:16,039
these batters. So it does matter. If he has like

323
00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:18,799
five at bats against, obviously that's a small samplize, it

324
00:17:18,799 --> 00:17:21,839
doesn't matter. But thirty eight bats against and you're holding

325
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,839
them under two hundred average, that means something. Now, whether

326
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,480
he's gonna do that today or not, we don't know.

327
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:33,279
So we're predicting the future. We're taking probabilities and projecting

328
00:17:33,319 --> 00:17:36,680
them into the future. So I think he's gonna hold

329
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,839
them down. So the way I would go here, I

330
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,799
kind of agree with Brian, would either be the Diamondbacks

331
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,279
on the money line but that bullpen is so bad,

332
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,079
maybe the Diamondbacks verse five or a Pittsburgh team total.

333
00:17:49,599 --> 00:17:51,359
I haven't put it out yet, but if I did,

334
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:52,319
that's how I would go.

335
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull this comment up because I I agree

336
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,039
with this. And here's the thing. I like the Diamondbacks.

337
00:18:03,079 --> 00:18:06,240
I'm with you guys on that. I very much disagree

338
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,519
that Arizona season is over now if I where I

339
00:18:09,599 --> 00:18:12,200
will where I will agree is the fact that if

340
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,200
you're looking at the National League standings and you're like, Okay,

341
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,920
the Diamondbacks are in a wildcard race, they're not going

342
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,400
to win the division, and right now ahead of them

343
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:29,759
are teams like Cubs, Brewers, right whoever doesn't win that division, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Giants, Reds. Like,

344
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,319
I understand where you're like, yeah, that's gonna be an

345
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,559
uphill battle for this team. Now. The reason I disagree

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00:18:35,599 --> 00:18:38,440
with the quote unquote season being over mentality is because

347
00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:42,319
it's really a case by case basis per organization. In

348
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,240
this organization, you really it's been a you really do

349
00:18:46,319 --> 00:18:48,519
need to get some of the older guys out because

350
00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:51,599
there's somewhat of a player crunch in Arizona's organization. So

351
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,559
you've got you've got guys like Jordan Lawler, Tim Tawa

352
00:18:57,079 --> 00:19:01,000
del Castillo that you know that have kind of been

353
00:19:01,079 --> 00:19:04,079
stuck at Triple A because they just haven't had enough

354
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,960
room on the big league roster. So I think Arizona's

355
00:19:07,039 --> 00:19:09,440
kind of looking at this as like, Okay, we're at

356
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,319
the point. I agree, Brian, you made such a good

357
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,119
point that three game sweep sort of gave the front

358
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,799
office office the go ahead to be like, let's move

359
00:19:17,799 --> 00:19:20,200
on from some of the veterans. Let's move on from Naylor,

360
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,960
let's move on from Suarez. We'll move Gallon, We'll move

361
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,480
some of the contracts out. But I don't think that

362
00:19:26,839 --> 00:19:29,880
really sours the mood in the locker room. And that's

363
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,240
kind of what you know, Robert's saying here. You know,

364
00:19:33,319 --> 00:19:36,359
the opportunities like the guys that are tight knit, the

365
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,119
guys that are boys in this franchise are the peven

366
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,839
smith with like the McCarthy's and the Lawlers, and the

367
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,319
guys that have sort of cycled through at Reno, also

368
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:49,599
Ken Ol Marte, guys that have sort of come up,

369
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,880
you know, some of the other Carol guys that have

370
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:53,720
come up in the organization. So what I think you

371
00:19:53,799 --> 00:19:56,400
could see, and I'm already seeing it with this price,

372
00:19:56,839 --> 00:20:00,400
you might see the market abandoned the Diamondbacks being like

373
00:20:00,599 --> 00:20:03,640
their seasons done. They're trading away sware as they're trading

374
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,119
away Nailor when in reality, you're all of a sudden

375
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,240
gonna get great betting opportunities with the Diamondbacks because I'm

376
00:20:10,279 --> 00:20:12,680
not really sure that like taking those guys out of

377
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,319
the lineup makes the team significantly worse. I don't think

378
00:20:16,319 --> 00:20:19,359
it's like a huge down grade to some of those

379
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:24,039
other guys that they have available. So in this spot,

380
00:20:24,319 --> 00:20:27,880
the Pirates, as Brian said, Nelson can handle the Pirates

381
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,279
even if he's even if he is a fastball guy.

382
00:20:30,559 --> 00:20:32,720
The Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the league.

383
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,160
I think you're gonna see the young guys still very

384
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,799
much with it for this Diamondbacks team. So I also

385
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,480
like the Dbacks here and I'll be looking at to

386
00:20:39,519 --> 00:20:41,240
play on them going forward.

387
00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bran, Yeah, you're got to take it. Each

388
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:49,000
team as it goes. Uh, this this is some veteran

389
00:20:49,079 --> 00:20:50,799
players on this team, but overall there's a lot of

390
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:54,920
young guys. Duca Steele is a great hitting catcher, but

391
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,559
they've got you know, they're pretty deep on catchers. So

392
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,519
now they've said he will probably DH all season long,

393
00:21:00,559 --> 00:21:03,599
and he's a damn good hitter. And they also got

394
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,960
as you talked about the infielder they can bring back up.

395
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,200
He didn't look well, he didn't look good earlier in

396
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,279
his first time, but bringing him up is somebody they

397
00:21:12,279 --> 00:21:14,039
want to do. So they've got some good players in

398
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:16,279
the minor leagues. And I live here in Vegas. They

399
00:21:16,279 --> 00:21:18,720
could see this team play out here very often. And

400
00:21:18,759 --> 00:21:20,960
they've got a lot of talent down at tripa A.

401
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,039
So they're looking for the future. And if you remember

402
00:21:24,279 --> 00:21:27,240
when they went to the World Series, they had a

403
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:31,720
late run, so that's a situation. They know that they

404
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,160
weren't looking great at one point that season and they

405
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,200
were able to make it all the way into the

406
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,119
playoffs and build on that. So yeah, I think this

407
00:21:39,279 --> 00:21:42,000
is one of those teams that they're not going to

408
00:21:42,079 --> 00:21:44,119
give it up, as you pointed out, and there are

409
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:45,960
teams I think we will see value.

410
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: On I don't want to disc I don't want to

411
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,200
gloss over this comic because a couple of people in

412
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:52,880
the chat are saying this is I feel like this

413
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,359
was kind of what TV was alluding to as well,

414
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,160
So like, possibly in the short term this could be

415
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,359
a distraction, and I think Brian brought that up as well,

416
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,000
So you know, maybe maybe you need to let the

417
00:22:03,079 --> 00:22:05,319
dust settle a little bit before you like really start

418
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,400
kind of coming in and firing on the d backs

419
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,759
because yeah, like as you said, trading, you know, if

420
00:22:10,079 --> 00:22:13,400
guys like are not sure who's going next, it certainly

421
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,759
could be a distraction. But is it enough of a

422
00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:18,759
distraction for them to not be able to beat the Pirates,

423
00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:20,880
a team that even without a couple of those guys,

424
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,640
they're still superior too, So that that's this is an

425
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,920
interesting game. I may use d backs for the parlay,

426
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,839
but I'm gonna u I'm gonna I'm gonna circle back

427
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,079
on that. But that was a good That was a

428
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,039
good discussion right there, all right, Mark Kinson, he says,

429
00:22:36,079 --> 00:22:38,759
can we cover padres cards? Yeah, that was probably the

430
00:22:38,759 --> 00:22:42,279
most exciting game yesterday. The good back and forth right there,

431
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,000
Cards end up holding on believe that was a nine

432
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:50,319
to seven final. Brian Leonard I thought the Padres. I

433
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,359
still feel like this team is probably going to turn

434
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,759
a corner at some point, maybe get active at the deadline,

435
00:22:55,759 --> 00:23:00,440
bringing someone else, who knows, but they just like they

436
00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:03,160
just can't get to the sort of level that I

437
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,240
thought the scene was going to be coming into the season.

438
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,920
So do you think they get to that point at

439
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,799
any point? And then do you have any interest in

440
00:23:10,799 --> 00:23:12,319
playing them against the Cardinals tonight?

441
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got concerns about their starting rotation. You Dorvish

442
00:23:15,799 --> 00:23:18,359
again yesterday did not have it. It's gon't take him

443
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,720
a while to come back, But as Brandon talked about yesterday,

444
00:23:22,079 --> 00:23:24,119
he's up He's been a great pitcher in his career,

445
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,359
but he's up there in age now. Paveta going against

446
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,119
Micholas here Paveta in San Diego about a one twenty

447
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,559
four favorite with a total of eight and a half,

448
00:23:34,759 --> 00:23:39,079
lightly to the under Paveta and Micholas. Pavett has been

449
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,799
in a nice run and he's been a good picture

450
00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:45,160
for them. One probably the best free agent signing out

451
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,279
of a pitcher this year, and he was one of

452
00:23:47,279 --> 00:23:49,759
those guys that signed late. Nobody wanted him. I couldn't

453
00:23:49,799 --> 00:23:53,319
understand that two point eight one era three point seven

454
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,440
seven expected. So he's been a little fortunate. His whib's

455
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,519
been great, one point zero zero. He's only got six

456
00:23:59,559 --> 00:24:03,039
point six percent walk rate, twenty seven point nine strikeout rate,

457
00:24:03,079 --> 00:24:06,559
which is twenty one point three. That's excellent. That's what

458
00:24:06,599 --> 00:24:10,960
you want. His weakness barrel percentage and a ground ball rate.

459
00:24:11,279 --> 00:24:14,319
He's in the tenth percentile and barrel percentage ground ball

460
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:19,880
rate the thirteenth percentile, and so that's something to be

461
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,799
concerned about. His extension is great, eighty fourth percentile. He's

462
00:24:22,839 --> 00:24:25,400
six foot five, so that ball gets on you in

463
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,640
a hurry. His force aemer he uses more than anybody else, though,

464
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,680
and that's my only concern about him. It's forty seven percent,

465
00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:36,920
whereas his other five pitchers or anywhere from twenty two

466
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,119
percent for the curve all the way down to three

467
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,680
for the slider or excuse me, one for the slider,

468
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:44,440
three for the sinker. So he's basically a three piss

469
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,440
pitcher sweeper. Eighteen percent uses the fastball a little bit

470
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,680
more than what I would like, but he's done it

471
00:24:51,759 --> 00:24:53,559
very well. And he's having a hell of a season.

472
00:24:54,079 --> 00:24:58,000
Miles michelis five point two ORA, four point nine four

473
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,799
one point three zero whip doesn't walk anybody. That's the

474
00:25:01,839 --> 00:25:05,359
best thing, probably the only thing with Mickless. He's in

475
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,480
the eighty nine percent TILE in walk r eight five

476
00:25:08,519 --> 00:25:10,480
point five percent, which is a little bit high for him.

477
00:25:10,519 --> 00:25:13,519
His career is four point three, whereas the league gage

478
00:25:13,599 --> 00:25:17,880
is eight point four. He is in the strike zone

479
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,240
a little bit too much considering what he has, and

480
00:25:21,279 --> 00:25:24,519
he also top his top pitches the four seemer only

481
00:25:24,599 --> 00:25:26,119
those are twenty eight percent of the time, but it's

482
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,880
only ninety two point four miles an hour, which is

483
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,880
two and a half worse than league average. His barrel

484
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,839
percentage seven percent tile with right six strikeout percent twelve.

485
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,000
He is not a good pitcher, and they've got many

486
00:25:40,079 --> 00:25:43,359
other guys in the minor leagues and that have a

487
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,519
better chance of by the end of the season, especially

488
00:25:46,599 --> 00:25:50,160
if they're out of the playoff race. This may be

489
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,920
the last season we see Miles Michlis in the starting rotation.

490
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:59,160
Here is thirty six years old, been around for ten seasons.

491
00:25:58,799 --> 00:26:01,920
He's an inning but this isn't a guy you want

492
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,960
in your rotation if you're looking to make the playoffs.

493
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,279
That said, I prefer the San Diego side in this game,

494
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,119
but this is a decent home run heading ballpark, and

495
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,559
when he's when you got put a throwing a lot

496
00:26:17,559 --> 00:26:20,359
of fly balls, that is a concern. Saint Louis does

497
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,359
have some pretty good home run headers on this team,

498
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,720
so probably won't get involved. But I lean with San Diego.

499
00:26:28,599 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 3: So some people in the chat are asking me where

500
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,279
I have Stacy's asking me where I have so and

501
00:26:33,319 --> 00:26:35,920
so bullpen ranked and stuff. I have all my rankings

502
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,519
at my page on wageytalk dot com, so go there

503
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:42,079
and download it for free. Picture projections, rankings and all

504
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:47,720
that stuff. So regarding this game the aforementioned rankings, I

505
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,519
also rank the top twenty starting pitchers and I have

506
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:55,240
Nick Pivetta rank fourteen. He's playing great, and he does

507
00:26:55,279 --> 00:26:57,680
have a couple of weaknesses, like Brian pointed out, But

508
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,440
no matter what those weaknesses are, I'm sure he's still

509
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,839
better than Miles Miechlus, so that doesn't bother me. I

510
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,119
was waiting for San Diego's bats to wake up because

511
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,400
they were really quiet coming out of the All Star

512
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:14,440
break and going into it actually, but they've woken up now,

513
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,279
so I'm all ready to back the padres here. Their

514
00:27:19,319 --> 00:27:22,319
bats was the only thing I was waiting for, and

515
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,559
now that they're there, I have absolutely no problem backing them.

516
00:27:25,599 --> 00:27:29,880
The one thing that I'm a little trepidacious taking the

517
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,160
padres here about would be the fact that Saint Louis's

518
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:38,279
bullpen is performing really well. But after Micholas barfs on

519
00:27:38,319 --> 00:27:43,240
the mound, it probably shouldn't be a factor. So you know,

520
00:27:43,279 --> 00:27:46,359
whenever I bad mouthed someone, the opposite happens. So watch

521
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,119
the Cardinals come out and Nicholas goes seven innings of

522
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,960
no hit ball or something. But I don't think that'll happen.

523
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,839
I would have no problem if you back the padres

524
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,920
here because Micholas is just so bad. I have them

525
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,200
ring twenty nine out of thirty on a curve, so

526
00:28:00,839 --> 00:28:04,799
after completely trashing the man, he's gonna go seven innings,

527
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,119
two hits, no runs today. But I'd like the padres here.

528
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, so do I the Cardinals. I think I touched

529
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,799
on it yesterday. I thought I haven't been at all

530
00:28:16,839 --> 00:28:19,079
impressed with them out of the break. I feel like

531
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,480
this team has played probably they've been one of the

532
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,160
worst team if you just watch the games, like they

533
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,920
have looked as bad in my opinion, as any team

534
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,680
since the All Star Break. Totally lethargic in that series

535
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,880
with the Diamondbacks lost two of three. At course, I

536
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,480
know they won last night, but their their win last

537
00:28:37,559 --> 00:28:41,119
night was entirely tied to Darvish getting blown up, like

538
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,240
after the seventh inning. They didn't do a ton actually

539
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,640
they I kind of agree with you, Tokyo Brandon. I'm

540
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,599
more interested in the fact that the Padres almost came

541
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,799
back and won that game like that, to me is

542
00:28:55,279 --> 00:28:57,440
maybe the sign that they might turn the corner. I

543
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,000
mean the Cardinals that have set in two leads and

544
00:29:01,039 --> 00:29:03,279
that was an eight seven game like that was a

545
00:29:03,359 --> 00:29:07,039
tight game that then the Cardinals needed to sort of

546
00:29:07,119 --> 00:29:09,680
use some of their better bullpen arms to close out

547
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,480
the game. So Duffel in the chat says, this has

548
00:29:12,559 --> 00:29:15,079
to be a parlay piece. I got you, I'll use

549
00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,880
it Padres money line. I'm still I know they've lost

550
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,039
three straight, but I still think this team has has

551
00:29:22,079 --> 00:29:24,880
a bit of a run in them. I think they

552
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,400
could make a move at the deadline now knowing the Padres.

553
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,359
It won't be the right one, but they'll still probably try.

554
00:29:30,559 --> 00:29:32,839
But like even with the guys they have right now,

555
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,559
and Paveta is just so far and away a better

556
00:29:36,599 --> 00:29:39,720
option than Michaeless at this point that if I think,

557
00:29:39,759 --> 00:29:42,319
even with a little bit of juice, you gotta still

558
00:29:42,319 --> 00:29:45,839
like the Padres, and certainly for the for the for

559
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,440
the parlay. I'm not at all concerned with laying a

560
00:29:48,519 --> 00:29:51,920
dollar forty or whatever it is. Let's so let's I'm

561
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,799
with you Duffel TV. I agree with you, guys. Let's

562
00:29:54,799 --> 00:29:56,960
go Padres money line. Brian Leonard, what do we have

563
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:57,680
for a number there?

564
00:29:58,079 --> 00:29:59,759
Speaker 2: It's about one twenty six right now?

565
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,119
Speaker 1: Oh wow, so cardinal six money.

566
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you could see it anywhere from one twenty

567
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,880
it basically Chris up to one thirty two at FanDuel,

568
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,759
all right, you're always going to pay more for favorites,

569
00:30:15,799 --> 00:30:18,960
the fan duel and DraftKings one of the reasons why

570
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:23,000
you'd like to get more than just the two sports books. Also,

571
00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:28,039
Saint Louis Helsley has been their best reliever for a

572
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,599
number of years now. They basically come out and said

573
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,359
he's gone. They're willing to trade him away. And despite

574
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,759
Saint Louis being two games over five hundred, they've been

575
00:30:36,799 --> 00:30:39,319
outscored on the season. In fact, Arizona, who is now

576
00:30:39,319 --> 00:30:43,400
two games under five hundred, has outscored them net by

577
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,640
sixteen runs this season, so they're in a very similar boat.

578
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,759
They're nine games out of first and the teams ahead

579
00:30:49,759 --> 00:30:52,039
of them are much better than what they are. So yeah,

580
00:30:52,079 --> 00:30:55,799
I expect Saint Louis to be major sellers.

581
00:30:56,599 --> 00:31:00,759
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I don't understand the cardose money even

582
00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:04,480
a little bit, but why not. Padres minus won twenty

583
00:31:04,519 --> 00:31:07,039
six is good. I'll make that my parlay leg. We've

584
00:31:07,079 --> 00:31:10,440
got a still got a half hour left, so we'll

585
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,359
be locking in two more before the end of the show.

586
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,680
Had a nice parlay winner yesterday, finally finally coming around.

587
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:19,680
Two winners already this week on the parlay. We'll see

588
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,920
if we can make it three. Would be an amazing

589
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,319
week and really would probably get us back close to

590
00:31:24,359 --> 00:31:27,039
that high watermark for the season, kind of how it

591
00:31:27,039 --> 00:31:29,039
goes when you're gonna when you're playing parlas, you only

592
00:31:29,119 --> 00:31:32,200
need a couple to really turn things around. So I've

593
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,640
got Padres money line and we will we will lock

594
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,799
something else in before the end of the show. Let's

595
00:31:37,799 --> 00:31:41,920
go to this game, mister nance Cub Socks, Howser's been

596
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,799
on fire. Any chance he's on display in a cub

597
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,359
by Monday? Well, I mean considering the White Sox got

598
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,880
him pretty much just as a you know, the round

599
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,279
Rock released. I'm sorry the Rangers released him, hope to

600
00:31:55,279 --> 00:31:57,720
get him back. White Sox grabbed him. If they could

601
00:31:57,799 --> 00:32:01,680
like flip Houser into something that could help them next year,

602
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,079
that is a major win for a team like the

603
00:32:04,079 --> 00:32:05,960
White Sox. So I don't know if he'll be a

604
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,599
Cub Brian Larrd. Is he gonna end up somewhere else?

605
00:32:08,599 --> 00:32:10,960
And how about those White Socks who continue to just

606
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,279
play good ball in the second half of the season.

607
00:32:13,759 --> 00:32:16,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the parlay yesterday. Not only did we

608
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,960
hit the three team partly it was plus six seventy five, Yeah,

609
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,400
a couple when you hit the other one. Brandon wasn't

610
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,359
fieling all that day, so it was only a two teamer.

611
00:32:24,759 --> 00:32:27,079
So yeah, yesterday was a big, a big parlay winner

612
00:32:27,079 --> 00:32:29,119
for us. And I gave up I didn't have any

613
00:32:29,119 --> 00:32:31,480
play for my clients. I gave out three that I

614
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,519
liked here and I won two of those three. But yeah,

615
00:32:34,559 --> 00:32:36,319
I do have that five percent play going today, and

616
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:39,319
it's only my second five percent play of the month

617
00:32:39,599 --> 00:32:41,559
of July, and we're almost to the end of the

618
00:32:41,599 --> 00:32:44,680
month of July. So I don't give out a lot

619
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,799
of big plays, but I do have one going today

620
00:32:46,799 --> 00:32:50,480
and you can pick that up right now. And we

621
00:32:50,519 --> 00:32:52,599
do have the opposite option where you can get it

622
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,640
guaranteed or you can get it regardless of the outcome.

623
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,440
So that's up there on the site right now, so

624
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,480
hopefully we can get some sales on that and we

625
00:33:01,559 --> 00:33:06,000
can get you another really nice parlay today the Cubs

626
00:33:06,119 --> 00:33:10,480
on the road to Chicago, and right now the Cubs

627
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:15,880
Imonaga lefty going against Hawser righting, the Cubs are about

628
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,200
a one seventy eight favorite something like that. You can

629
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,319
get down to one sixty seven a pinnacle up to

630
00:33:21,559 --> 00:33:26,200
you know, one eighty five at bet MGMs, so a

631
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,400
little a little different to be able to shop here

632
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,799
a total of eight, you know, I mean not as

633
00:33:31,839 --> 00:33:33,799
a lefty. But if you take a look at what

634
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:39,000
the Chicago White Sox have done the last two weeks

635
00:33:39,039 --> 00:33:42,400
against lefties, They've had one hundred and twenty five played appearances.

636
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,160
They have a one forty five WRC plus, right behind

637
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:52,240
Minnesota and Colorado against lefties. If you take a look

638
00:33:52,279 --> 00:33:58,200
at them overall over the last two weeks, we're looking

639
00:33:58,279 --> 00:34:03,079
at the Chicago Cubs at one oh one. Chicago White

640
00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:09,199
Sox overall it's one to eight. So you've got a

641
00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:12,159
White Sox team that's hitting better against lefties especially and

642
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,920
overall going against the Cubs team who has been a

643
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:21,199
disappointment lately. Emanaga is a really crafty veteran. He hasn't

644
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,960
been in the United States very long, but he's he's

645
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,039
been around for a while. He's thirty one years old.

646
00:34:27,559 --> 00:34:30,360
Two point four zero ERA this season, but is expected.

647
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,920
The ARA is three point five to one. His whip's

648
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,239
been great zero point nine two. He's always had a

649
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,199
very good whip. His career walk rate is only four

650
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,119
point six. His strake got rate was twenty five point

651
00:34:42,119 --> 00:34:44,679
one last year. It sounded to eighteen point two this year.

652
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,039
That is a little bit of a concern. He did

653
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:49,239
come back from injury, so strike got on. This walk

654
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,199
ratio is only twelve point four. That's not very good.

655
00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:58,440
Fastball velocity nine percentile, ground ball rate third percentile. So

656
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,679
he's a guy that gives up a lot of balls,

657
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,119
and his four seemer he uses fifty percent of the time,

658
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,880
but he only throws it at ninety point nine miles

659
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:12,239
per hour. That's not good. Splitter sweeper and curve career

660
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:13,960
of only three percent of time. So basically he's a

661
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:18,039
three pitch pitcher and his foreseemer is not being that code.

662
00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:19,800
He's in the nine percent entire life. I didn't mention

663
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,880
it before in Fastball Velocity. The Chicago Teas played with

664
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,960
a lot of conference right now, a lot of young players,

665
00:35:26,079 --> 00:35:28,800
and this team is playing much better than they did

666
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,719
earlier in the season. Hauser comes in with a one

667
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,280
point eight fount is shooting one point eight nine ERA

668
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,800
three point seven seven expected. Obviously, he's been a little

669
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:43,000
bit lucky one point two to three whip his walk percentage.

670
00:35:43,039 --> 00:35:45,480
He's had problems in the past. His career walk rate

671
00:35:45,559 --> 00:35:48,039
is nine point one. This year's only seven point seven.

672
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,320
He's done a little bit better in that regard. Never

673
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,800
been much of a strikeout pitcher. This year seventeen point seven,

674
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,440
which gives him a ten point zero strike out to

675
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,599
walker ratio. So I think the offenses could have some

676
00:35:59,639 --> 00:36:03,719
success here, and I think there's value on the Chicago

677
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,599
White Sox. The Cub's got a big series coming up

678
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,840
against against a really good I think they play the

679
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,119
Mets coming up, if I'm not mistaken, one of the

680
00:36:12,159 --> 00:36:15,239
really good teams they'll likely face if they get to

681
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,559
the playoffs. So that's something to look forward to. I

682
00:36:18,639 --> 00:36:22,920
don't know if they'll take look past the White Sox,

683
00:36:23,119 --> 00:36:26,960
but you'd have to think playing the White Sox is

684
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,559
something that they're not getting excited about. Whereas the White Sox.

685
00:36:30,119 --> 00:36:31,679
You know, if you've been in any of these cities,

686
00:36:31,679 --> 00:36:34,599
the Mets for many years, the Angels and some of

687
00:36:34,639 --> 00:36:38,280
these other cities, the Clippers in the NBA, they take

688
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,639
these games more seriously than the other teams do. So

689
00:36:41,679 --> 00:36:44,960
we got the Little Brother playing at home with a

690
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,360
guy who's been just as good as Monaga here, and

691
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,800
they're hitting really well, and you're getting them up upwards

692
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,880
of from one. I think there's a little bit of

693
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,559
value here on the White Sox, either playing them on

694
00:36:59,559 --> 00:37:01,760
on the plus run line plus one and a half

695
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,800
although they are of the home team, or getting them

696
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,599
on the money line. It's something I'm taking a look

697
00:37:06,599 --> 00:37:08,400
at right now, and I may end up with one

698
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:13,199
of these on my card today.

699
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:20,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, two Chicago's going against each other. Go to our pages, guys,

700
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,360
and we have free plays up. Brian's got a five percent.

701
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,840
I have a four percent. Adam will have something out

702
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,480
to So go to our pages and at least check

703
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,639
out our free plays. You know we're three of the

704
00:37:30,639 --> 00:37:35,719
best cappers at wager Talk, so grab it. Yeah, Ima Naga,

705
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,840
A lot of people ask me, what's who's the American

706
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,480
equivalent not American but Major League equivalent of Ema Nagai's.

707
00:37:42,599 --> 00:37:46,800
He's kind of like Louis Castillo. He's basically say similar age.

708
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,280
He used to be dominant, he used to be the

709
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,519
ace of his team, and now he's getting a little older.

710
00:37:50,559 --> 00:37:54,400
He's still great, great at eating innings, but he's just

711
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,280
not the flashy, dominant strikeout guy that he used to be.

712
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,079
It's basically very similar careers. And Imanaga did win a

713
00:38:01,159 --> 00:38:05,239
championship with the DNA bas Stars in Japan in way back,

714
00:38:05,679 --> 00:38:08,880
way back two thousand and thirteen or something way back

715
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:14,000
when anyways, So I like him as an innings eater,

716
00:38:14,079 --> 00:38:16,400
but he's not anything flashy. I got these two pictures

717
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,199
ranked pretty similar. Howser has been in the league for

718
00:38:20,199 --> 00:38:23,159
a long time. He's kind of a name that casual

719
00:38:23,199 --> 00:38:25,360
fans don't know, but he's been around for a while.

720
00:38:26,119 --> 00:38:30,280
He does not have the best stats career wise against

721
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,599
these batters that he's facing today, which worries me a

722
00:38:32,639 --> 00:38:38,000
little bit. Bullpen wise, I give the Socks the advantage surprisingly,

723
00:38:38,119 --> 00:38:40,440
and hitting wise, I give the Socks the advantage. As

724
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,800
far as current form is concerned. I got him ranked

725
00:38:43,519 --> 00:38:47,159
five out of thirty teams. That's kind of surprising. I

726
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,920
don't might want to take a screenshot of that, because

727
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,760
you're not going to see the White Sox ranked higher

728
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:56,239
than the Cubs and hitting very often. It'll probably change soon,

729
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,880
but for now, that's where they're at. We could do

730
00:38:59,920 --> 00:39:04,280
the Adam Triggers Special White Sox plus one and a

731
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,119
half here. I wouldn't argue with it. Actually, the way

732
00:39:07,159 --> 00:39:10,480
their bullpen and their hitting is playing. Houser's stats against

733
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,400
the Cubs worrying me a little bit. But but no,

734
00:39:14,559 --> 00:39:16,239
I think I think that would be the way I'd

735
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,599
go if I get if I was going to do it,

736
00:39:18,639 --> 00:39:21,679
I don't have it out yet, but certainly am thinking

737
00:39:21,679 --> 00:39:22,119
about it.

738
00:39:24,119 --> 00:39:26,519
Speaker 1: Jose Perez says White Sox will put up a fight tonight.

739
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:30,679
Chad Picards says, White Sox money line, thank me later.

740
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,239
We did a show at the ninety game mark. The

741
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,840
White Sox are thirty and sixty. I said they're going

742
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,880
to probably be closer to a five hundred team than

743
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:42,960
a team that loses two thirds of their games the

744
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,400
rest of the way. Since that point, they're seven and six.

745
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,280
Tokyo Brandon. In regards to you liking the plus one

746
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,599
and a half, they have covered the plus one and

747
00:39:50,599 --> 00:39:52,880
a half run line in every single game since the

748
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,880
All Star break. They've won five of their last six,

749
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,159
and the one loss was a three to four loss,

750
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,840
a four to three loss to the Race, in which

751
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,719
point you could have got a good price on the

752
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:04,599
plus one and a half. They've been an underdog in

753
00:40:04,639 --> 00:40:06,679
almost every one of those games. So the White Sox,

754
00:40:07,559 --> 00:40:10,840
I've got nothing more to say. I've been saying. I

755
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,920
said it two weeks ago. They've been extremely profitable to

756
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,400
this point if you've bet them regularly, and there's no

757
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,599
way I would go against them until the market shifts

758
00:40:19,639 --> 00:40:22,400
so much that they're suddenly value on the other side.

759
00:40:22,599 --> 00:40:24,400
That's not the case here, and I agree with Brian.

760
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,519
I do think that it's rare at this point that

761
00:40:26,519 --> 00:40:29,559
you're getting real juice at rate field, that this might

762
00:40:29,599 --> 00:40:32,280
be the if you're looking at White Sox home series

763
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,480
the rest of the way, this might be the most

764
00:40:34,559 --> 00:40:36,880
juice you get in the ballpark the rest of the seasons.

765
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,039
Cubs weekend series at home. I don't think it gets

766
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,559
quote unquote bigger than this for the White Sox the

767
00:40:43,599 --> 00:40:46,800
rest of the season. So they'll probably wear those cool

768
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,480
ass Bulls jerseys tonight. I think it's Friday at home,

769
00:40:49,679 --> 00:40:52,760
the New City Connects. I don't care. Tell me in

770
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,960
the chat. Do they play better in those jerseys chat?

771
00:40:55,039 --> 00:40:57,360
I think they do. I don't know. That might be

772
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,639
a little anecdotal, but because they won like the first

773
00:40:59,679 --> 00:41:02,440
time they played in them. But still, the White Sox

774
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,000
have played so much better of late, and that goes

775
00:41:05,039 --> 00:41:08,599
back to Will Venable turning this into a developmental roster.

776
00:41:09,119 --> 00:41:11,800
Just you know, he's managing this like triple A team.

777
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,840
Everyone's getting at bats, everyone's getting innings, and I think

778
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,960
the team has you know, it's a new group of guys.

779
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,079
It's not the same group of White Sox that lost

780
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,039
a trillion games over the last few years. It's new guys,

781
00:41:26,079 --> 00:41:29,880
different organizations. Vargas is from the Dodgers organization. Heel came

782
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,360
over from the Red Sox. Colson Montgomery was a young

783
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,639
guy that came up through the ranks. Quero came up

784
00:41:36,679 --> 00:41:39,440
through the ranks. Our guy, Mike Tauchmin Tokyo Rannon came

785
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,559
back from Korea. So you got like different guys. These

786
00:41:42,559 --> 00:41:45,159
aren't the guys that lost all those games. And I

787
00:41:45,159 --> 00:41:47,840
think you're seeing some of that, some of that, like

788
00:41:48,079 --> 00:41:53,440
just positive momentum, camaraderie, chemistry playing out and now they're

789
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,239
starting to play good ball. Go ahead, Brian Winner.

790
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought it was the match they're playing the Brewers.

791
00:41:59,039 --> 00:42:01,079
Actually is the next for them, and the Brewers have

792
00:42:01,159 --> 00:42:03,639
a one game lead on him. That's enough to get

793
00:42:03,679 --> 00:42:05,920
me involved in this. I'm going to use this as

794
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,199
my parley, Peach. I'm gonna take the White Sox plus

795
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,800
the one and a half minus one ten. There's a

796
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,079
minus one hundred out there if you're shopping around, but

797
00:42:14,119 --> 00:42:17,880
minus one ten seems to be the consensus here. And

798
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,719
as you mentioned, and that was a good point about

799
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,679
the White Sox covering this one and a half in

800
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,559
every game. In the second second half of the season.

801
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,519
I read that and I forgot to mention it, so

802
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:30,159
thank you for pointing that out again. So yeah, that's

803
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,119
that'll be me. The White Sox plus one and a

804
00:42:32,159 --> 00:42:36,400
half minus one ten is my parlor's on today's card.

805
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: They also got rid of zero work ethic, just disappointment

806
00:42:42,079 --> 00:42:44,840
Andrew Vaughn. I really think that, like when they got

807
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,880
rid of him, they sent all the bad whatever over

808
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,039
the last couple of years because because that dude just

809
00:42:51,559 --> 00:42:52,920
he's one of my least favorite players.

810
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 2: If you talk to the Brewers, though, they think he's

811
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:56,320
been a spark.

812
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: Hey, listen, every sometimes you just need a new times,

813
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,800
you just need a fresh start. But I don't I've

814
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,400
heard from players that played in that organization that he

815
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,239
was not a very hard worker. He kind of just

816
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,159
showed up and was always it makes sense because he

817
00:43:12,599 --> 00:43:16,960
never lived up to expectations and so hey, maybe just

818
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,119
a new and you know what, there's some merit being

819
00:43:19,119 --> 00:43:21,280
said to going from the White Sox. Now you show

820
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,760
up team like the Brewers. Everyone's playing winning ball, Like

821
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,800
what do you You're gonna be on your best behavior,

822
00:43:26,159 --> 00:43:30,800
So you're good for him. Colin Gregory says Mariners minus

823
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,960
one as well. I'm looking at Listen, don't sleep on

824
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,920
the Mariners. They they have more moves to make. They

825
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,199
are not done. I'll tell you that right now. That

826
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,039
Nailor move was just the beginning. Because they still have

827
00:43:42,159 --> 00:43:44,679
prospects that they can ship out. I expect them to

828
00:43:44,679 --> 00:43:47,719
make another big splash. I think this team is for real,

829
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:51,000
Brian Leonard. Now the question is are you getting involved

830
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:54,000
with them? Tonight second game of a four game set

831
00:43:54,039 --> 00:43:57,519
with the Angels. I think we've got Brian Wu and

832
00:43:57,599 --> 00:43:59,320
Jose Soreano. How are you seeing this one?

833
00:44:00,119 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. One of the people in the chat yesterday pointed

834
00:44:03,519 --> 00:44:05,679
out that the Angels had to do that cross country

835
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,599
trip without having the day off. They played in New

836
00:44:08,679 --> 00:44:10,039
York and then had to come all the way home.

837
00:44:11,079 --> 00:44:13,559
That was something that I'd missed. I don't know how

838
00:44:13,639 --> 00:44:16,960
much it means, but there is something to it. Wu

839
00:44:17,039 --> 00:44:20,639
against Soriano here. Wu's about a one twenty favorite, and

840
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,239
the total on this is eight and a half two pictures.

841
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:28,880
I really like Brian Wu two point nine one era

842
00:44:29,119 --> 00:44:32,199
three point one seven expected zero point ninety four whip.

843
00:44:32,559 --> 00:44:35,239
His career whip in three seasons is one point zero zero.

844
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,320
He just created that it is walk right this year

845
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,199
four point six after last year's two point eight five

846
00:44:42,199 --> 00:44:44,880
percent in his career, so this year he's got a

847
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:49,559
nineteen point seven struck out minus walker eight, which is excellent.

848
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:54,079
As I mentioned, walk is walk percent till ninety four percentile,

849
00:44:55,079 --> 00:44:58,840
barreol percent thirty five percent, ground ball rate forty first percent.

850
00:45:00,039 --> 00:45:03,039
Couple of concerns because the Angels this is a pretty

851
00:45:03,039 --> 00:45:07,159
good hitter's ballpark, especially for home runs here, and the

852
00:45:07,199 --> 00:45:09,440
Angels have a lot of guys who are home run hitters,

853
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:13,920
which is why Jose Soriano is so good in this ballpark,

854
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,119
because he got three point eight three era three point

855
00:45:16,199 --> 00:45:19,320
nine to three expected one point four to three whip

856
00:45:20,159 --> 00:45:24,639
that's about ten zero point one higher than his career

857
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,559
eleven point one percent in the walk rate twenty point

858
00:45:28,679 --> 00:45:31,199
zero strikeout rate, so he's not one of those guys

859
00:45:31,679 --> 00:45:35,159
it's going to dazzle you with his strikeout percentage. He's

860
00:45:35,159 --> 00:45:38,360
only at eight point nine percent strikeout minus walk. What

861
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,239
he does dazzle you in he's in the one hundredth

862
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:45,719
percentile of ground ball rate ninetieth percent tile of fastball velocity.

863
00:45:46,679 --> 00:45:52,760
So while he is for seemer is excellent a ninety

864
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,199
seven point seven percent. He only throws it eight percent

865
00:45:55,199 --> 00:45:59,199
of the time because his sinker is so dominating, and

866
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,719
he throws that at ninety seven point one miles an hour.

867
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,320
The league average is only ninety four, so he's over

868
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,320
three miles an hour faster on the sinker, uses it

869
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,079
fifty one percent of the time. He's also got a curve.

870
00:46:12,119 --> 00:46:14,400
He's a guy that keeps you off balanced. I like

871
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,280
this guy away. This guy pitches, and this is a

872
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:20,280
really good ballpark for him. He's had success here, and

873
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,559
so we got two pitchers that I really like. The

874
00:46:22,639 --> 00:46:24,840
problem is, if you take a look at the last

875
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:30,440
fourteen days in WRC plus, he's really two leaders. The

876
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,440
Angels one thirty three, Seattle won thirty one. So we've

877
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,800
got conflicting things here. I like the two starters, but

878
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,199
both teams are hitting it really well. All so how

879
00:46:40,199 --> 00:46:44,039
do you treat this? I still like the under a

880
00:46:44,119 --> 00:46:50,239
slight bit here. I think maybe first five under something

881
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,119
to that respect, because I'm not a big fan of

882
00:46:53,159 --> 00:46:55,800
the Angels bullpen. This Seattle's got a good bullpen and

883
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,119
they've got a really good closer, So maybe first five hundred.

884
00:46:59,199 --> 00:47:02,159
But this probably won't make my card.

885
00:47:03,159 --> 00:47:07,639
Speaker 3: Wow, it looks like Brian's reading my notes. I like

886
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,960
the first five under also, and the reason is mostly

887
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,519
because actually the Angels are hitting better than the Barners

888
00:47:14,599 --> 00:47:17,280
right now, which is kind of surprising. It's current form

889
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:22,320
though they're not as talented as the Baroners at the plate,

890
00:47:23,199 --> 00:47:26,440
but current form they are neither bullpens really performing well.

891
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:28,880
You don't really know what you're gonna get from this

892
00:47:29,039 --> 00:47:33,119
jackal and hide bullpen from the Angels. Seattle's is good,

893
00:47:33,119 --> 00:47:35,920
but they're underperforming right now. So yeah, I agree, throw

894
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,239
out the bullpens starting pitchers. They both have great numbers

895
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:43,039
against the other team, not the other team, the other batters,

896
00:47:43,159 --> 00:47:45,159
shall I say, or else we're gonna keep getting comments

897
00:47:45,159 --> 00:47:47,559
about it doesn't matter how they pitch against the other team.

898
00:47:47,679 --> 00:47:50,679
So against the other batteries, they both have great, great stats,

899
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,800
like really good stats under two hundred averages against the

900
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,920
other team. The one stat that concerns me here that

901
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:02,159
gives me a little red flag is Orehano. He's he's weird,

902
00:48:02,599 --> 00:48:05,039
he's terrible at home, and he's great on the road.

903
00:48:05,119 --> 00:48:09,199
So it's kind of opposite of every other picture in MLB.

904
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,000
So that raises a little bit of a flag for me.

905
00:48:12,039 --> 00:48:14,760
But I think the way he performs against these batter's

906
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:19,480
career wise trump'stat. So I would agree with Brian. The

907
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:21,639
first five under would be the way I would go here.

908
00:48:21,639 --> 00:48:25,079
And actually in my notes I have that. I haven't

909
00:48:25,079 --> 00:48:27,039
put it out yet, but I think I will, So

910
00:48:27,199 --> 00:48:28,320
that's the way I would go here.

911
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 1: Aod says, I love this f king show. We know

912
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,280
what he's talking about right there, So shout out to you.

913
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:42,280
Appreciate that, appreciate the feedback, all feedback regardless. And someone

914
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:45,000
else said, you guys agree agreeing too much today. Listen,

915
00:48:45,199 --> 00:48:48,280
we don't come on the show trying to disagree with

916
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:50,159
each other. The thing is like, we all have our

917
00:48:50,199 --> 00:48:52,880
own opinions, but we're really confident in our opinions. So

918
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:56,480
if we disagree, we're gonna disagree. But if we agree,

919
00:48:56,519 --> 00:48:58,840
like that actually makes me feel good because we have

920
00:48:59,519 --> 00:49:01,920
I have two guys who I respect their opinions and

921
00:49:02,039 --> 00:49:04,039
it's coming up the same as me. We never talked

922
00:49:04,039 --> 00:49:07,480
before the show, like there's no pre show coffee, let's

923
00:49:07,519 --> 00:49:10,039
talk about the show. Nothing is prepared, we just go.

924
00:49:10,119 --> 00:49:12,719
Everyone's just going off the Dome. I have no idea

925
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,760
what these two are going to talk about. So when

926
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,880
they come up and we arrive at the same thing,

927
00:49:17,119 --> 00:49:20,639
since we're all getting there somewhat different ways. To me,

928
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,960
that's I actually see that as a good thing because

929
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,199
I know none of us really arrive at the same

930
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:31,480
end point with the exact same way. So I have

931
00:49:31,559 --> 00:49:34,519
no problem when it's a little bit consensus on this show.

932
00:49:35,159 --> 00:49:36,840
If I was on like an NFL show, I'd be

933
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,800
running for the hills, like you know what I mean,

934
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,840
But like, go ahead, Brian or yeah.

935
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 2: I just wanted to point out if anybody doesn't know,

936
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,480
I've been part of a Tuesday group in Vegas, there's

937
00:49:46,519 --> 00:49:49,000
a lot of sharp minds in there, and that's why

938
00:49:49,039 --> 00:49:51,119
we had it, because we would have somebody in like

939
00:49:51,199 --> 00:49:54,440
Big Alan mcmorty, who is strictly a trend's guy, and

940
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:57,639
we'd have Scott Spreischer, which is a player personnel guy,

941
00:49:58,079 --> 00:50:00,920
and we've had other guys like that too. Joe Fartinball

942
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,880
who's on ESPN now. He always would come to the meeting,

943
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,239
So we had a lot of guys attacking it from

944
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:09,719
different angles. And if everybody agreed, even though they attacked

945
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:12,880
it differently. Those were really good bets over the years

946
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:13,440
in football.

947
00:50:15,079 --> 00:50:19,559
Speaker 1: Absolutely, and so yeah, I I I'm waiting with it

948
00:50:19,679 --> 00:50:22,280
with a baited breath to see what Tokyo Brandon puts

949
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:23,800
in the parlay go ahead.

950
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 3: I was just gonna I was just gonna mention that

951
00:50:26,039 --> 00:50:29,800
can we do my part the my parlay piece game, Brian,

952
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:31,840
I'll tell you what it is, so you can start

953
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,039
off while I while I do the input here.

954
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I what game do you want TV?

955
00:50:38,119 --> 00:50:39,119
Speaker 3: Marlin's Brewers?

956
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: Okay? So all all, all I was going to do

957
00:50:42,119 --> 00:50:44,960
with the Mariners will just wrap that one up. I

958
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:47,119
was just going to point out that you not only

959
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,039
did you point out Mariner's bullpen numbers, they used a

960
00:50:50,039 --> 00:50:52,320
couple of their better guys yesterday. So I think that

961
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:55,840
supports your sort of, you know, assessment of the Mariners

962
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:59,079
bullpen maybe not being in its best form today. That's

963
00:50:59,119 --> 00:51:00,800
all I got there. I really don't have a pick

964
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:02,599
on that one. So do you want to kick us

965
00:51:02,639 --> 00:51:04,599
off with Marlin's Brewers, then we'll go to Brian then

966
00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:06,639
to me? Sure?

967
00:51:07,159 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: All right?

968
00:51:07,639 --> 00:51:13,119
Speaker 3: Okay, get yeah, So we got cal Quantrell going against

969
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:21,719
uh Freddy Freddy Freddy got fingered funniest movie man. Tom

970
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,199
Green is so funny. But anyways, you get sick of

971
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,599
him after about fifteen minutes, but he's hilarious for the

972
00:51:27,639 --> 00:51:31,280
first fifteen minutes. But anyway, it's funny movie. But anyway,

973
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,119
you've got Freddy Parolta going against Cal Quantrell. Cal Quantrell

974
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,320
is just an awful picture. I mean, he's just terrible.

975
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:41,760
And uh, you know, ever since I bad talked to

976
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,400
the Brewers, they went on this huge streak. Now I'm

977
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,760
gonna now, I'm gonna sweet talk and watch them go

978
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,800
on a losing streak here. But man, the Brewers are hot.

979
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:53,159
They're hitting number five in MLB, their bullpens ranked seven

980
00:51:53,199 --> 00:51:56,800
in MLB, and Freddie Parolta on a curve of thirty

981
00:51:56,880 --> 00:52:00,719
is ranked ten. Where I got Miami. Miami's one saving

982
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:04,800
grace was there, I'm sorry. Their two saving graces were

983
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,400
the fact that their bullpen was performing really well and

984
00:52:07,519 --> 00:52:09,559
they were smacking the ball really well with some of

985
00:52:09,559 --> 00:52:13,280
their young young guns in that lineup. But those two

986
00:52:13,599 --> 00:52:16,079
factors have really faded since the All Star break. I

987
00:52:16,079 --> 00:52:20,000
got their bullpen rank thirteen. Now it's just still above fifteen,

988
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,199
but it's not very good compared to seven, which is

989
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:26,440
where the Brewers are at, and the batting is really

990
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:30,199
cooled off. Going into the All Star break, they were hot, hot, hot.

991
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:33,000
I had them in current forum ranked up to I

992
00:52:33,039 --> 00:52:35,400
think I had them up to about four. Now they've

993
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,960
dropped to about seventeen now, so they're getting cold. Cal

994
00:52:39,079 --> 00:52:41,519
Quantrell is just a hot mess on the mound. So

995
00:52:41,679 --> 00:52:44,800
as I say this, he's gonna throw seven INNY one

996
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,639
hit zero earned run ball. No. But I think the

997
00:52:47,679 --> 00:52:49,719
Brewers on the money line is the way to go here,

998
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:52,679
and that's gonna be my parlay piece. It's probably like

999
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:55,239
minus one ninety or something by now. I think when

1000
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:58,719
I saw it was minus one eighty. But yeah, that'll

1001
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:02,000
be my parlay piece for the aforementioned reasons.

1002
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I never saw the one eighty. I do see

1003
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:05,599
it right now two fifteen.

1004
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 3: Oh geez, it's one ninety. And I saw it.

1005
00:53:08,559 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 2: Twenty five on the overnight and anywhere from too hard

1006
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,400
like two twenty right now.

1007
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 3: But if you guys want to bet it single, if

1008
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:19,800
you guys want to bet it single, do a minus

1009
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:21,719
one and get it for like minus one seventy. You

1010
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:22,760
can do that, I mean.

1011
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 1: And that's just that's just a Brewer's money line TB.

1012
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:31,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, money line is minus two twenty. Yeah, that's my leg.

1013
00:53:34,079 --> 00:53:34,559
Speaker 1: Tom Green.

1014
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,159
Speaker 3: Yeah. In the comments, a lot of Tom Green comments.

1015
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,320
Watch the section. Watch the little YouTube video where he

1016
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:46,280
goes to Japan. So funny he puts like a a

1017
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,920
female erotic toy on a revolving sushi belt. It's just

1018
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:56,199
so funny. It's just crazy stuff. Anyways, go ahead, Tom

1019
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:59,239
Green is just crazy.

1020
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: We gotta talk about this game ourselves.

1021
00:54:02,519 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, go go to Brewers Marlins and then I'll

1022
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:05,760
finish it out. Yeah.

1023
00:54:06,519 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 2: Quantrell five point two four e ra a five point

1024
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:12,920
ones here expected one point three seven whip. He doesn't

1025
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:14,639
walk a lot of batters, which is good because he

1026
00:54:14,679 --> 00:54:17,199
pitches in Colorado, and that's the worst thing you want

1027
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:21,960
to do. His he's he's better than what his numbers

1028
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:25,960
show because he does pitching Colorado. When he was with

1029
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,320
Cleveland back in the day, he was decent. He's he's

1030
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:34,400
sort of like a Michael Nicholas kind of pitcher. But

1031
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:35,840
I think he's a little bit better. He just his

1032
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,079
numbers are worse because he plays in Colorado. But his

1033
00:54:39,159 --> 00:54:41,159
walk grde is basically the only thing he's good at

1034
00:54:41,199 --> 00:54:44,519
the rest of his numbers. He struggles in that Milwaukee

1035
00:54:44,639 --> 00:54:48,199
going with Freddy Peralta the ace, and he's eighted. All

1036
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:52,599
year long, he's been very good where he comes in

1037
00:54:52,679 --> 00:54:54,880
with a two point eight five e R, a three

1038
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:59,199
point four to one expected one point wait whip more

1039
00:54:59,199 --> 00:55:01,360
of a fly ball pitch though, that's just The worst

1040
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,559
thing is groundball percentage only twenty eight percentile, so he

1041
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,880
does give up a lot of fly balls. But his

1042
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:13,599
heart hit rate eighty seventh percentile extension eighty first percentile

1043
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,760
and he's only six foot, so that's pretty impressive to

1044
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,440
be six foot and having eighty one percentile extension. We

1045
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:22,719
all know that he's a very good pitcher. His strikeout

1046
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,559
minus walker ratio on the season is seventeen point one,

1047
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:32,880
which is not great, but it's good and considering what

1048
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:35,159
he has done in the past, that's something to be

1049
00:55:35,199 --> 00:55:39,639
proud of. Us throw his four seemer fifty seven percent

1050
00:55:39,639 --> 00:55:42,719
of the time and it's about league average ninety five

1051
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,159
point zero. It's got to change the curve and the

1052
00:55:45,159 --> 00:55:48,119
slider throws the fastball a little bit more than what

1053
00:55:48,159 --> 00:55:51,679
I would like because it's not it's ninety five. Is okay,

1054
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:55,639
but that's a league average fastball my right hander. But

1055
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:59,039
still I like Milwaukee. Wlukee's playing great. The only problem

1056
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:03,480
you could could possibly run into is you would think

1057
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:05,719
this would be a lot down for Milwaukee, but very

1058
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,360
similar to what we've seen out of the Toronto Blue Jays.

1059
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:11,679
They just don't seem to have a let down since

1060
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,239
the second half started and right before the first half.

1061
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:18,039
So it maybe I let down spot playing Miami with

1062
00:56:18,159 --> 00:56:20,920
Quadrille on the mound, but still from a talent standpoint,

1063
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,199
I really like the way the Brewers are playing, and

1064
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,840
unlike mister Brandon, I liked them three four weeks ago,

1065
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:31,079
so I was very supplot surprised that you give out

1066
00:56:31,079 --> 00:56:33,559
the Brewers. I'm just curious. Is this the first time

1067
00:56:33,639 --> 00:56:35,679
you released the Brewers as a play in a while.

1068
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,320
Speaker 3: It is, which is why well I've won. I've won

1069
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:42,159
a few plays with them without mentioning it on the show.

1070
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,400
Kind of like having an overweight girlfriend or something. You know,

1071
00:56:45,599 --> 00:56:51,199
you don't tell your friends, you just enjoy it.

1072
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 1: I had so a couple of comments off of comments

1073
00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:57,559
in the chat, and I don't have a ton about

1074
00:56:57,559 --> 00:56:59,639
this game. I'll say that I see all the time

1075
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:03,559
ring comments. I never I never found him as like

1076
00:57:03,639 --> 00:57:06,840
funny as some other stuff, but like you have to acknowledge,

1077
00:57:07,199 --> 00:57:09,039
like two thousand and one, two thousand and two, that

1078
00:57:09,079 --> 00:57:13,000
guy was as over as any Like he he was

1079
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:18,000
just massive. I never got the appeal personally, but like

1080
00:57:18,559 --> 00:57:21,400
he was like it for like a couple of years. Yeah,

1081
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:23,519
it's just funny TV. To go back and watch it

1082
00:57:23,519 --> 00:57:26,119
now and you're just like, it's really dumb at least

1083
00:57:26,119 --> 00:57:27,360
you know what I mean, Like when you watch him

1084
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,400
right now, but if you put yourself back into like

1085
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:31,760
two thousand and two thousand and one, yeah, it was

1086
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:36,320
that type of stuff just hit back. Then the other thing,

1087
00:57:36,559 --> 00:57:39,159
Hulk Hogan passing away, we got to acknowledge that rip

1088
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,960
to the Hulkster. I was a huge wrestling fan as

1089
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,039
a kid, and that was sad to see yesterday. As

1090
00:57:45,119 --> 00:57:47,519
far as this game is concerned, I'm not going to

1091
00:57:47,559 --> 00:57:50,039
really add much. I'm with Brian. I do think the

1092
00:57:50,079 --> 00:57:52,480
Brewers have a letdown maybe at some point in this series,

1093
00:57:53,079 --> 00:57:55,039
but I don't know if I really want cal Quandrill.

1094
00:57:55,159 --> 00:57:57,280
So I thought about Marlins plus one and a half

1095
00:57:57,280 --> 00:58:00,119
for a very brief minute, but I think I'm i

1096
00:58:00,159 --> 00:58:03,280
think I'm over that. I'll wait for my spot on

1097
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:06,400
the Marlins later in late later in the in the

1098
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:08,239
weekend maybe and see if I can find Adams.

1099
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 3: Can I can I mention something before you sum up

1100
00:58:11,039 --> 00:58:15,480
the parlay. I'm gonna be on tomorrow Saturday at noon

1101
00:58:15,519 --> 00:58:18,719
Eastern just to do my capping and everyone can follow along.

1102
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,159
Brian has a five percent play. I have a four

1103
00:58:22,199 --> 00:58:25,440
percent play Adam. All of Adam's plays are either four

1104
00:58:25,519 --> 00:58:28,079
or five percent from what I've seen. So we're all

1105
00:58:28,079 --> 00:58:28,800
gonna have plays.

1106
00:58:29,119 --> 00:58:29,519
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1107
00:58:29,639 --> 00:58:32,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I play threes in triple A, but yeah, for

1108
00:58:32,239 --> 00:58:33,400
the most part, four percenter.

1109
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:36,199
Speaker 3: We're all gonna have plays out today. There's a huge

1110
00:58:36,239 --> 00:58:39,760
slate and it's a very likable slate. Also, we all

1111
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:43,000
put up free free plays as well, So go to

1112
00:58:43,039 --> 00:58:44,960
our page. Just take five seconds to go to our

1113
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:47,119
page and check what we got for free. Put a

1114
00:58:47,159 --> 00:58:49,760
one percent two percent play on our free plays. Guys,

1115
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,960
you will win some money in the long term.

1116
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'll point out someone in the chick like

1117
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:57,239
I was never like a hul Kogan fan. I was

1118
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,719
always more like I was the next generation, So I'm

1119
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:02,159
more less just acknowledging what he did for pro wrestling.

1120
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:04,920
I missed the Hogan like years for the most part.

1121
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:07,280
I was the next generation where I was wearing the

1122
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:11,519
Austin three to sixteen skull shirt to school like that was.

1123
00:59:11,599 --> 00:59:13,960
That was my generation of wrestling. So I missed the

1124
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,360
eighties and like the early nineties. But I mean, you

1125
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,440
can't have pro wrestling without hole coked, so you had

1126
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:22,039
to had to bring it up there. Let's can we

1127
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,039
all right, we're at We're at you know what, We'll

1128
00:59:24,039 --> 00:59:26,000
call it right here at ten am. We got a

1129
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:30,440
lot in on this show one more time, like and subscribe,

1130
00:59:31,039 --> 00:59:33,679
head on over to the replay, drop us a comment.

1131
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,639
We appreciate the feedback. Like Brian Leonard made a great

1132
00:59:36,679 --> 00:59:40,119
point earlier that we like no one acknowledged the fact

1133
00:59:40,119 --> 00:59:42,679
that the Angels were making a cross country trip. Someone

1134
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,000
jumped in the chat that was a great point. Now,

1135
00:59:45,079 --> 00:59:48,400
regardless of the three of us like put that into

1136
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:50,480
our handicapping much. I think it's something I've sort of

1137
00:59:50,519 --> 00:59:53,760
phased out because I think TB has kind of said this,

1138
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,519
like these guys travel in like first class style. They're

1139
00:59:56,599 --> 00:59:59,280
just they're used to it. Sometimes they like being away

1140
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,119
from home a little bit more so I personally like,

1141
01:00:02,199 --> 01:00:05,079
don't put a huge stock into it, but it's definitely

1142
01:00:05,079 --> 01:00:07,159
something we should mention. That's why we love having you

1143
01:00:07,199 --> 01:00:10,400
guys in the chat, in the comments, firing stuff off

1144
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:13,039
like that, because it's not possible for one person to

1145
01:00:13,079 --> 01:00:16,360
catch everything, and so we appreciate hearing from you guys

1146
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:19,920
like that. Brian Leonard's got a five percenter tonight. Check

1147
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:22,239
that out. TV has been hot. I saw him whin,

1148
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,599
I saw him win with KT Whiz this morning, so

1149
01:00:25,679 --> 01:00:28,239
go check out his page. I'll have some plays up

1150
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,039
as well, back to back days. I just went one play.

1151
01:00:31,159 --> 01:00:33,880
I hit them both only played a minor league game

1152
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,519
yesterday that one. I'll definitely be back in action in

1153
01:00:36,599 --> 01:00:40,159
Major League Baseball tonight and one more time for good measure,

1154
01:00:40,639 --> 01:00:42,960
the three teamer. Can we do it back to back

1155
01:00:43,039 --> 01:00:45,760
days back? This would be a big end to the

1156
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,840
week because we've already hit two parlays this week, so

1157
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:51,239
this would really get us back into business with the parlay.

1158
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:56,800
We are going Tokyo Brandon Brewer's money line, I'm gonna

1159
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,880
go Padre's money line, and Brian Leonard is going White

1160
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:03,679
plus one and a half. That's plus three ninety nine odds,

1161
01:01:03,679 --> 01:01:06,400
so basically four to one and let's see if we

1162
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:09,480
can finish the week with a bang. You guys, got

1163
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:10,960
anything else to add or you want to get out

1164
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:11,440
of here.

1165
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 3: For let's win. Go to the replay, leave a like

1166
01:01:17,079 --> 01:01:17,639
and a comment.

1167
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 1: It really meet.

1168
01:01:18,559 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 3: It goes a long way to helping us. You don't

1169
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:23,079
realize how much, so take the five seconds. If you

1170
01:01:23,199 --> 01:01:25,320
enjoyed this show, give us five seconds.

1171
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:29,199
Speaker 1: Please check out Tokyo Brandon tomorrow on the wager Talk

1172
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:32,320
YouTube channel. Noon Eastern is what time you go?

1173
01:01:33,239 --> 01:01:35,559
Speaker 3: Yeah? Neon Eastern, neon.

1174
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:38,400
Speaker 1: Eastern and we will see you guys Monday, nine am Eastern.

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Have a great weekend, everyone,