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Speaker 1: Welcome to the deep dive. So three months that feels

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like quite a while for something to just be hanging

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out up there.

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Speaker 2: It really does, and in astronomical terms, three months of

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observation can change everything.

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Speaker 1: Especially with this particular object. It's gone from just another blip,

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you know, another discovery, to maybe the most the most

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thrilling cosmic puzzle we've got going right now.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, we're talking, of course, about three Ilis.

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Speaker 1: Three IELLWA, an interstellar object, and if you haven't been

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following this, you really need to understand. This isn't just

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some pretty picture in a telescope.

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Speaker 3: No, not at all. It's a rival.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that was interesting enough, But what it's done since arriving,

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that's what's forcing astronomers to ask some really fundamental questions.

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Speaker 1: That'pends about what's normal out there, exactly what.

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Speaker 2: Happens when you see something that well, the physics just

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doesn't seem to quite fit, especially for what we thought

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was just an icy rock wandering in from interstellar space.

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Speaker 1: Right because the starting point, the sort of default setting

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for most just looking at this was commet correct.

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Speaker 2: The conventional wisdom the majority of you is this is

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an icy body lots of all little stuff born around

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another star, drifted here now reacting to our son. Fascinating, sure,

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but natural.

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Speaker 1: But then came the data, the observations, the observations, and

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specifically the magnitude of what's being observed.

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Speaker 2: That's where the conflict really starts, because the activity is

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just extreme.

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Speaker 1: And this is where you know, you get that counter

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argument picking up steam, you do.

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Speaker 2: It's a smaller group, definitely, but very vocal and led

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by a prominent name, Avi Lobe at Harvard right.

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Speaker 1: Love has been pushing this idea for a while with

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other objects too.

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Speaker 2: He has, and his argument here is that the behavior,

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the characteristics we're seeing with three I A. L us

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they just stretched that natural comet explanation too thin. Maybe

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he suggests past the breaking point. So the alternative, the

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alternative is well that we have to seriously consider. It

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might be engineered alien technology, maybe some kind of probe.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's the ultimate clash. Isn't it simple predictable physics,

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even if it's violent physics like a comet breaking up

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versus something deliberate, something designed.

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Speaker 2: It is, and it's impossible to ignore the drama inherent

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in that the source material even framed it pretty dramatically.

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Speaker 1: I'd say, yeah, I saw that line. Did the mothership

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just separate into a squadron of reconnaissance aircraft?

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Speaker 3: Exactly?

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Speaker 2: Now, look, that's obviously putting it in very stark Maybe sensational.

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Speaker 1: Alternations are very sci fi.

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Speaker 2: But the underlying tension that's real because the physical observations

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we have, they genuinely seem to present a binary choice.

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Speaker 3: The evidence points one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: Either it fits neatly into this model of a comet

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just falling apart under stress.

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Speaker 2: Right, the fragmentation model, or it doesn't fit that at all.

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And if it doesn't, the data seems to demand we

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think about something with say, high velocity jets, but not

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a lot of mass being thrown off, which sounds a lot.

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Speaker 3: More like technology.

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Speaker 1: The universe is basically forcing us to choose between those

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two paths.

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Speaker 3: It really feels that way sometimes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's unpack this. Then that's what this deep dive

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is all about today. We need to get into the weeds,

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into the calculations, the actual observations that are fueling this

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whole incredible.

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Speaker 2: Debate, the detective work as you called it earlier, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Exactly how are astronomers using what we do know, like

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the sould er wind as a kind of pressure gauge

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to figure out the forces coming off three eye its less.

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Speaker 2: That's the crucial part, using the known environment to probe

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the unknown object.

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Speaker 1: And we really need to look hard at this evidence

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suggesting it's losing just an insane amount of mass, this

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mass flux idea, what does that number actually mean for

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the comet theory versus the tech theory.

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Speaker 2: We're essentially using physics, momentum, velocity pressure. These are our

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forensic tools here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so where do we start the forensic analysis the

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object's path?

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Speaker 2: I think we have to the trajectory and crucially it's

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recent very close encountered with the Sun because three eye

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loss has been very active lately.

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Speaker 1: Right, And just to remind everyone, when we say interstellar object.

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Speaker 2: We mean it wasn't born here. It came from around

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another star, traveled across that vast emptiness between stars, the

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interstellar medium.

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Speaker 1: For potentially millions, maybe billions of years.

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Speaker 2: Could be untold distances. Yeah, and then relatively recently in

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cosmic terms, it got snagged by our Sun's gravity and.

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Speaker 1: That journey culminates in this hairpin turn around our star.

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It just recently passed its closest point perihelium.

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Speaker 2: Which for anything icy is the make or break moment.

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Speaker 1: Why specifically what happens there, Well, you.

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Speaker 2: Get maximum stress several kinds at once. Intense heat obviously

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from the Sun that makes volatile materials ices sublelate, basically

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boil off straight into gas, often.

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Speaker 1: Violently like dry ice here on Earth.

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Speaker 2: Exactly like that, but on a potentially massive scale. And

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then you also have tidal forces, the.

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Speaker 1: Sun's gravity pulling harder on the near side than the

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far side.

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Speaker 2: Precisely, it stretches the object, tries to pull it apart.

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For something that's basically loosely held together s which many

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comets are, that combination of heat and stretching is often catastrophic.

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It forces structural failure.

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Speaker 1: And that event, that perihelium passage, is what gave us

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this data crunch point we're talking about.

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Speaker 2: That's what drove the whole calculation about the incredibly high

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mass loss. It triggered the intense activity.

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Speaker 1: And now the object is setting back out away from

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the Sun, but it's going to pass relatively close to Earthstone.

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Speaker 2: Which gives us our best chance yet for really detailed,

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high resolution observations, we can get a much better look.

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Speaker 1: And this is the big butt that kicked off this

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whole debate. Based on what we saw happen around the sun.

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Speaker 2: The immediate consensus the warning shot was that three iadols

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might not be in one piece by the time it gets.

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Speaker 1: Here for its close up, because the core observation was

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this just unprecedented rate of mass loss, the mass.

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Speaker 2: Flux, right, The initial calculation suggested it was shedding materials

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so fast, so.

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Speaker 1: Violently that the only way to explain it under the

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standard comet model was that.

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Speaker 2: It basically exploded or at least disintegrated, shattered into say

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a dozen or maybe more smaller pieces, and each of

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those pieces is now acting like a mini comet, spewing

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out gas and dust.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this is critical. We're not just talking about it

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getting a bit brighter or having a slightly bigger tail

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than usual.

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Speaker 2: No, No, we have specific visual evidence, powerful ejection events

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and highly directed ones. It's not just a big fuzzy

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cloud diffusing outwards.

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Speaker 1: And the observations got really specific, didn't they. That's what

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makes this so compelling. Around what late October after it

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whipped around the sun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, October twenty ninth is a key to eight mentioned.

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Astronomers looking closely then didn't just see, you know, a

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general Hayes. They saw distinct plumes, directional jets.

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Speaker 1: Of material like nozzles firing off.

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Speaker 3: That's a good way to picture it.

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Speaker 2: The focus wasn't just on the coma, the big gas

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cloud around the core. It was on these jets shooting

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out of the core region.

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Speaker 1: And they counted them.

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Speaker 3: They did.

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Speaker 2: Reports mentioned observing seven distinct jets coming out of what

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they assumed was the collection of fragments, seven and maybe

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even more than seven. The reports suggest it was hard

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to tell. It somewhere overlapping.

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Speaker 1: Seven distinct streams of stuff blasting out that detail right there.

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That's what separates this from your average comet coming through absolutely,

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because you know, I picture a comet, I think of

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that classic graceful sweeping tail, maybe two tails gas and dust,

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but seven or more distinct, powerful directional jets. That visual

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alone screams something weird is happening.

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Speaker 3: It does.

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Speaker 2: It immediately flags this as highly unusual, and that observation

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feeds directly into that hypothesis. High mass flux means it

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must have broken up to create enough surface area for

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all that material to come off.

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Speaker 1: If you imagine like a single leaky pipe, that's one thing.

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But if you see seven high pressure hoses blasting water

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out of roughly the same spot, your.

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Speaker 2: First thought is something broke, right, catastrophic failure. Or maybe

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those aren't leaks, maybe they're engines.

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Speaker 1: That's the unsettling part that forces.

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Speaker 3: You to confront the limits.

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Speaker 2: Is this natural commentary physics pushed to an extreme, or

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is this something else entirely?

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Speaker 1: And that sets up the core dilemma perfectly for you

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listening right now. We have this really startling visual these jets.

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So how do we figure out if this is just

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a comment shattering under the Sun's heat, or if it's

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something engineered propulsion.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the answer, or at least the path to the answer,

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lies in the physics. It's in the details of how

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those jets are interacting with the solar environment around them.

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Speaker 1: Right, we have to move past just being surprised by

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the picture and get into the numbers.

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Speaker 2: Because those jets, those seven or more streams, they're pushing

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against something something we know a lot about solar winds,

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the solar wind.

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Speaker 1: This is where the detective work gets really cool. I think,

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can you just set the scene. What exactly is the

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solar wind in this context?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crucial. It's not like wind on Earth, obviously.

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It's a constant stream of charged particles, protons, electrons, other

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atomic nuclei flowing out from the Sun really fast, supersonic speeds,

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hundreds of kilometers per second.

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Speaker 1: It fills the whole solar system.

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Speaker 2: Permeates everything. And here's the key part for our mystery.

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We know its properties pretty well decades of spacecraft flying

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through it measuring it.

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Speaker 1: So at any given distance from the Sun, we have

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a good handle on its density, its speed, and therefore

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the pressure.

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Speaker 3: It exerts exactly.

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Speaker 2: Think of it like a headwind blowing constantly outwards from

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the Sun, a known quantifiable pressure, a cosmic baseline, like you.

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Speaker 1: Said, okay, a fixed reference point. Now back to the

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jets from three Ilis.

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Speaker 2: Some of those jets we mentioned, they were observed pointing

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towards the.

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Speaker 1: Sun, so firing straight into that headwind.

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Speaker 2: Directly against the flow of the solar wind, pushing back

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against that constant pressure.

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Speaker 1: And they don't just puff out and disappear instantly.

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Speaker 2: No, that's the critical observation. They penetrate the solar wind,

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they push into it for a measurable distance before being

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dispersed or deflected.

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Speaker 1: They hold their own against the flow.

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Speaker 2: They maintain their structure, their coherence, pushing against that known

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pressure for a certain distance.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we can see how far they push. Ah.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now I see the pressure gage analogy. The solar

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wind is the known resistance. How far the jet pushes

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into it tells you how strong the jet must be.

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Speaker 2: Precisely, we know the pressure of the solar wind is

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exerting inwards. For the jet material to push outwards against

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that pressure, for let's say distance X, we can calculate

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the infit needs the momentum.

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Speaker 1: Momentum, which is mass times of velocity. Right T equals

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M times V.

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Speaker 2: Basic physics, Basic physics, but incredibly powerful here. If we

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know the momentum P required to penetrate the solar wind

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to the observed distance.

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Speaker 1: Then we have a relationship between the mass M being

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ejected and the speed V it's ejected at.

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Speaker 2: Exactly P equals mxv. We've measured P indirectly by seeing

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how far the jet penetrates the known solar wind pressure.

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Now we need to figure out M.

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Speaker 1: And V, and this lets us calculate the total amount

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of stuff coming out per second, the.

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Speaker 2: Mass flux that's the term, yes, mass flux. How much

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mass is flowing out in those jets over time. By

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observing the penetration, we calculate the required mass flex needed

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to generate that momentum. If we make an assumption about

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the speed.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's make the first assumption the conservative one hypothesis

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one is just a comet doing comet things, right.

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Speaker 2: So the jets are made of typical comet stuff, mostly water,

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ice turning into vapor, maybe some dust mixed in. It's

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all driven by the sun's heat causing sublimation.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So if it's subblimating ice, what kind of speed

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does that give the material? Is it fast?

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Speaker 3: Relatively speaking?

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Speaker 2: No, sublimation is well, it's energetic, but it doesn't blast

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stuff off at rocket speeds. We're talking characteristic speeds maybe

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in the range of half a kilometer per second up

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to maybe one kilometer per second. Definitely not dramatically higher

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than that. It's a relatively gentle push compared to say

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an explosion.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so V is low in the p eqal mx

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V equation V is low, and that immediately creates the

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mass problem.

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Speaker 2: It creates a huge mass problem, a catastrophic one really

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for this single comet idea, because remember we calculated the

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required momentum P from the jet penetration. If the velocity

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V of that icy material is low.

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Speaker 1: Then the mass M must be enormous to make the

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equation mallons enormous.

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Speaker 2: The sheer amount of mass that needs to be ejected

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per second in those jets at that low speed to

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push back against the solar wind that hard, it's just astronomical.

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Speaker 1: How astronomical can we put that in perspective?

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Speaker 2: Think about the surface of the comet. Sublimation happens off

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the surface that's heated by the sun. If three icleas

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was just one single reasonably sized commet.

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Speaker 1: Nucleus like a few kilometers across maybe.

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Speaker 2: Something like that, Yeah, the total surface area of that

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single body, especially the sunlit side, is simply not big

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enough to sublimate that much ice per second. You can't

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get that calculated required mass flux off a single modest surface.

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Speaker 1: The engine is too small for the power output required.

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Speaker 3: Basically, that's a great way to put it.

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Speaker 2: The required surface area just to boil off enough ice

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to create those powerful jets is orders of magnitude larger

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than what a single solid object of that estimated size

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could possibly provide.

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Speaker 1: So this is where fragmentation becomes not just a possibility,

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but almost a requirement if you stick to the comet explanation.

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Speaker 2: It's forced on you by the calculation. It's a mathematical

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necessity under the low velocity ice assumption. The only way

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a natural icy body can generate that much mass.

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Speaker 1: Flux is if it's not one body anymore.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, it has to have broken up into many, many

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smaller pieces. Think of it like smashing a big block

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of ice into lots of little chips.

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Speaker 1: Suddenly you have way more surface area.

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Speaker 2: Exposed, way more And if all those little fragments are

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also heated by the sun and sublimating, their combined cumulative

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surface area could potentially add up to the enormous total

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area needed to release that huge required mass flux. Wow.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so the physics really paints you into a corner.

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There you see the strong jets. You assume it's low

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speed ice. Therefore it must have shattered to provide the

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needed surface area.

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Speaker 3: It becomes a self consistent picture.

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Speaker 2: Yes, assumption comet observation strong jets penetrating solar wind. Calculation

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needs huge mass flux. Conclusion must be fragmented to provide

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the surface area for that flux.

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Speaker 1: So if it is a comment, we're basically just waiting

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for the pictures to confirm. We can see the pieces

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flying apart.

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Speaker 2: That would be the definitive proof for the common hypothesis. Yes,

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seeing those fragments clearly separated.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now let's rewind the calculation, keep the same observation,

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the jets pushing back against the solar wind, requiring a certain.

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Speaker 3: Momentum P, same P required.

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Speaker 1: But now let's explore hypothesis too. Let's question that assumption

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about low velocity ice.

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Speaker 2: This is where the technological idea gets its physical justification.

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It offers a completely different way to satisfy P equals MXV.

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Speaker 1: It tackles the V instead of the M.

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Speaker 2: Precisely so hypothesis one. The natural comment says it shattered,

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the pieces dispersed, and the huge combined surface area explains

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the high mass flux big M of low velocity ice,

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small V evidence needed.

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Speaker 1: See the fragments, got it now, hypothesis too. Technological origin.

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Speaker 2: This scenario starts differently. It assumes the object is inherently strong.

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It's not a fragile snowball that fell apart. It survives

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perihealium intact.

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Speaker 3: And those jets, those jets aren't.

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Speaker 2: Sublimation, they're engineered. They're propulsion like rocket exhaust.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so how does that change the P MXV calculation dramatically?

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Speaker 2: Because if the jets are technological exhausts, the ejection velocity

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V can be much much higher than the gentle one

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kilometers from sublimation.

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Speaker 1: How much higher are we talking? Oh?

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Speaker 2: Orders of magnitude. Potentially, standard chemical rockets achieve exhaust velocities

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of say three.

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Speaker 3: To five kilometers per second.

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Speaker 2: More advanced systems like ion propulsion can reach tens even

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hundreds of kilometers per second.

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Speaker 1: So V becomes very large.

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Speaker 2: V becomes very large. Now look at the equation again,

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P equals MXV. We know P is fixed by the

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solar wind observation i V is now huge.

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Speaker 1: Then M the mass required can be tiny exactly.

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Speaker 2: You don't need that enormous, physically impossible mass flocks anymore.

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The object doesn't need the surface area of.

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Speaker 3: A dozen fragments. A tiny amount.

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Speaker 2: Of mass M ejected at extremely high speed V can

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generate the exact same momentum required to push back against

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the solar wind.

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Speaker 1: It's the difference between stopping a truck with a fire

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hose versus a bullet.

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Speaker 2: That's a really good analogy. The fire hose is the

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Comet model huge mass flow M low speed V. The

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bullet is the tech model tiny mass M incredibly high

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speed V. Both can deliver the same punch P.

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Speaker 1: So the technological hypothesis solves the mass problem by cranking

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up the velocity.

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Speaker 2: It elegantly sidesteps the need for fragmentation. A single structurally

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00:16:37,039 --> 00:16:39,639
sound object could produce those jets if it has a

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high efficiency, high velocity.

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Speaker 1: Propulsion system, which means the evidence needed for this hypothesis

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is the exact opposite of the.

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Speaker 2: Comet one, completely opposite. For the tech hypothesis to hold water,

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we need to see an object that has maintained its

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structural integrity.

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Speaker 1: It's stayed whole despite the solar passage, despite the jets firing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it needs to be intact, and it must still

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be exhibiting those powerful directional jets whose strength can't be

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explained by low velocity ice sublimation from a single body.

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Speaker 1: So it really boils down to one simple visual check.

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Is it in pieces or is it whole?

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Speaker 2: That's the crux of it. Structural integrity. That's the single

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observational factor that could decide this whole fascinating mystery. If

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it's days whole, the standard comet model is in serious trouble. Mathematically,

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physics then points strongly towards high velocity, and.

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Speaker 1: High velocity points strongly towards something not natural.

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Speaker 2: It certainly forces you to consider non natural highfficiency mechanisms

379
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because nature doesn't typically produce one hundred kilometers jets from

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sublimating ice.

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Speaker 1: What an incredible fork in the road, and we're watching

382
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it happen almost live.

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Speaker 2: The timing is extraordinary because the coming weeks right now

384
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are absolutely decisive. We're not talking about weeding years for data.

385
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This is unfolding as we speak.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's focus on that timeline. What are the two

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00:17:57,559 --> 00:18:02,039
clear outcomes everyone's waiting for in say the next few

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weeks leading up to mid December.

389
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Speaker 2: It really is binary outcome. One confirmation of the comet hypothesis.

390
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Speaker 1: What is Elaklin.

391
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Speaker 2: We get clear images showing a fragmented object multiple distinct pieces,

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and crucially, we see them separating from each other over time,

393
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being pulled apart by the Sun's tidal forces. That would

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be the smoking gun for natural fragmentation. Case closed pretty much, Okay.

395
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Speaker 1: That validates the high mass flux, low velocity ice model correct.

396
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Speaker 2: Now outcome two the plot twist.

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Speaker 1: We don't see fragments.

398
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Speaker 3: We don't see fragments.

399
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Speaker 2: We see an object that clearly maintained its structural integrity

400
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,200
through perihelion, still one piece, or appears to be.

401
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,640
Speaker 1: But it's still firing those jets, and it's.

402
00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 2: Still exhibiting those powerful, persistent directional jets that cause all

403
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:47,359
the fuss in the first place.

404
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 1: Because if it's intact, then the only way to explain

405
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,839
the jets pushing against the solar wind is high.

406
00:18:52,759 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 2: Velocity pmxv must be large. We move from a calculation

407
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,000
that required fragmentation to potentially measuring that high velocity.

408
00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:04,200
Speaker 1: You can actually measure the speed of the stuff coming

409
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:04,839
out if it.

410
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Speaker 2: Stays intact and the jets are clear enough. Yes, telescopes,

411
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,720
especially with spectrographs, can measure the Doppler shift of the

412
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light from the jet material to determine its speed. They

413
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,200
can also try to estimate the density and thus the

414
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mass flux.

415
00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 1: So if it's intact and we measure the jets and

416
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,839
we find the speed is way higher than sublimation allows

417
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and the mass flux is actually quite low.

418
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Speaker 2: Then that confirms the activity is genuinely anomalous. It breaks

419
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the known physics of comets. It tells us something very

420
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unusual is happening.

421
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Speaker 1: That sounds like it needs more than just one telescope

422
00:19:35,519 --> 00:19:36,200
pointing at it. Oh.

423
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 2: Absolutely, this is a global effort. Because the object is

424
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,359
faint and the activity might be variable. You need eyes

425
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,640
all around the world. Data from hundreds of observatories is.

426
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Speaker 1: Being pooled, pictures, spectra.

427
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 2: Everything, trying to confirm its structural state, is it one

428
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,400
thing or many? And measuring the properties of any activity,

429
00:19:54,599 --> 00:19:56,759
what's it made of? How fast is it moving?

430
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Speaker 1: There's a real sense of urgency here. Isn't there a

431
00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:01,480
race against time? Time before it gets too far away

432
00:20:01,559 --> 00:20:02,119
or too faint?

433
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,599
Speaker 2: Again, there is, and we're heading towards the peak opportunity.

434
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,720
The closest approach to Earth is on December nineteenth.

435
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Speaker 1: That's the best viewing window.

436
00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 3: That's when it's nearest to us.

437
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:17,519
Speaker 2: Yes, but the critical observations about fragmentation versus integrity. Those

438
00:20:17,599 --> 00:20:20,960
are happening right now and in the days and weeks

439
00:20:21,039 --> 00:20:24,160
leading right up to the nineteenth We are smack in

440
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,160
the middle of the decisive period.

441
00:20:26,759 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 1: So there's this cosmic deadline right around the holidays. The

442
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,160
source mentioned astronomers hoping that by the Holy Days.

443
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the hope is that by late December we will

444
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,000
have a definitive answer.

445
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Speaker 3: We'll know the nature of the object.

446
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,039
Speaker 1: Talk about a potential holiday bombshell. Imagine getting that news.

447
00:20:42,079 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 2: It would certainly be numorable either way. Really, we'll either know. Okay,

448
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,359
it was a comment. It broke up, confirms our models

449
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,839
about these fragile interstellar visitors, or it's intact that jets

450
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,039
are real the speeds are high, Houston, we may have

451
00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:55,680
a situation.

452
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 1: Well, no, for sure, one way or the other. As

453
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,720
you said, that's the best part of science, getting that

454
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,240
clar yes or no on a hypothesis. Still, I can't

455
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,799
help but imagine the headlines if it holds together, mysterious

456
00:21:06,839 --> 00:21:09,400
space object defies known physics.

457
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: Well, let's hope the science reporting is accurate. But yes,

458
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,880
it would be major news. Though it's really important to

459
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,680
stress even if it does turn out to be just

460
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:19,920
a fragmented rock.

461
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 1: We still learn something important, hugely important.

462
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 2: Confirming it's a comet tells us a lot about the

463
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,720
composition and fragility of these objects. After that long, hard

464
00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:32,400
journey through interstellar space. Maybe they get battered by cosmic

465
00:21:32,519 --> 00:21:36,319
rays weakened. That has big implications for how we study

466
00:21:36,319 --> 00:21:39,480
future interstellar visitors. We learn how delicate they are.

467
00:21:39,559 --> 00:21:42,160
Speaker 1: So no matter what, this observation campaign is a win

468
00:21:42,319 --> 00:21:42,880
for science.

469
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:43,559
Speaker 3: Absolutely.

470
00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 2: We either refine our understanding of deep space comets or

471
00:21:47,519 --> 00:21:51,000
we stumble upon potentially the biggest discovery in human history.

472
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:52,720
It's a fascinating position to be in.

473
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 1: One outcome is definitely a bit more paradigm shifting, shall we.

474
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 2: Say, just a bit, But it's the best kind of

475
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,119
scientific cliffhanger where the resolution is guaranteed and imminent.

476
00:22:02,319 --> 00:22:04,759
Speaker 1: Okay, let's try and wrap this deep dive up. We

477
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,240
started with this object three ir lists hanging around for

478
00:22:08,279 --> 00:22:11,400
three months, turning into this major puzzle, and.

479
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,559
Speaker 2: We saw how the whole mystery really hinges on interpreting

480
00:22:14,599 --> 00:22:17,480
those powerful jets interacting with the solar wind.

481
00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:23,519
Speaker 1: The physics calculation that interaction requires a certain momentum, which.

482
00:22:23,279 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 3: Forces a choice.

483
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 2: If you assume low speed ice comet model, you need

484
00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:31,440
enormous mass flux, which demands fragmentation to get enough.

485
00:22:31,319 --> 00:22:35,319
Speaker 1: Surface area, or if you assume high speed dejection tech model,

486
00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:38,519
you only need a tiny mass flux, which means the

487
00:22:38,599 --> 00:22:40,359
object could easily stay intact.

488
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 2: It's a direct trade off between mass and velocity, dictated

489
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,480
by the object structural integrity.

490
00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:48,759
Speaker 1: So we're essentially on this this scientific blind day, as

491
00:22:48,759 --> 00:22:51,599
the source kind of hinted, we're approaching it with our calculations,

492
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,880
ready for whatever shows.

493
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,559
Speaker 2: Up, ready for just a rock which confirms our models,

494
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,000
or ready for something more exciting which breaks them.

495
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 1: And the answer comes down to whether it's it holds

496
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,039
together or falls apart in the next few weeks, with.

497
00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 2: The payoff being that definitive answer hopefully by late December.

498
00:23:06,599 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: You know, I keep thinking about the implications if it

499
00:23:08,759 --> 00:23:12,599
does stay intact. It's not just that it's weird technology.

500
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:17,240
It fundamentally challenges what we assume these interstellar wanderers are

501
00:23:17,279 --> 00:23:17,599
made of.

502
00:23:17,799 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 2: That's a really crucial point. We generally assume they're icy, dusty,

503
00:23:22,039 --> 00:23:26,519
structurally weak, especially after maybe millions of years exposed to

504
00:23:26,799 --> 00:23:31,160
harsh interstellar radiation. Comets aren't known for being robust.

505
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,559
Speaker 1: Right, they're cosmic snowballs.

506
00:23:32,759 --> 00:23:36,559
Speaker 2: But if three i at lists sails through perihelion, firing

507
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,680
powerful jets and doesn't disintegrate, it implies it's made of

508
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,440
something much stronger, much denser than a typical.

509
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: Comment materials that can withstand intense heat and tidal forces.

510
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 2: Which starts to sound less like a randomly accreted snowball

511
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:55,440
and more like something constructed. Natural processes build things to survive, sure,

512
00:23:55,759 --> 00:23:59,119
but engineering builds things to perform specific functions under stress,

513
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,119
like generate high velocity thrust while staying intact.

514
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: That difference between just surviving and actively performing. That's the leap,

515
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:07,200
isn't it.

516
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: It is, And maybe that's the final thought to leave

517
00:24:09,279 --> 00:24:12,480
you with. What's truly fascinating here is how our standard

518
00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:17,680
physics models commet sublimation low ejection speeds. Set these very clear,

519
00:24:18,039 --> 00:24:21,000
very strict limits, limits on the surface area needed, the

520
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,480
mass flux needed to explain those jets.

521
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,519
Speaker 1: Physics straws a line in the sand.

522
00:24:25,319 --> 00:24:28,839
Speaker 2: It does, and if three iatlis crosses that line by

523
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:33,240
staying intact while still producing those powerful jets, it forces

524
00:24:33,319 --> 00:24:36,519
us to ask what other assumptions that we hold about

525
00:24:36,559 --> 00:24:40,960
interstellar objects might be wrong. If the icy snowball model fails.

526
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 1: Here, does it make us look again at things like Umumua,

527
00:24:43,319 --> 00:24:46,440
that first interstellar visitor, which also had that weird non

528
00:24:46,559 --> 00:24:47,799
gravitational acceleration.

529
00:24:48,079 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 2: Exactly was that weird push also due to some kind

530
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,240
of high velocity, low mass emission we couldn't properly detect,

531
00:24:54,559 --> 00:24:58,480
rather than some exotic, unseen outgassing. If one object challenges

532
00:24:58,519 --> 00:24:59,519
the natural only.

533
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: Assumption potentially reopens the case files on others.

534
00:25:02,599 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 2: It could change our entire perspective on what's actually drifting

535
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:09,000
between the stars. How common might objects be that aren't

536
00:25:09,039 --> 00:25:11,960
just rocks or ice? The answer might be waiting in

537
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,799
those telescope images over the next few.

538
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 1: Weeks, a truly pivotal moment for astronomy and potentially for

539
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,519
all of us. Something profound to think about while we

540
00:25:20,559 --> 00:25:23,759
wait for that December nineteenth close approach Until next time

541
00:25:23,799 --> 00:25:24,519
on the Deep Dive