Speaker 1: What is up, fellowsikos, I am dan Fa Valley coming
at you with my one, my only, my certified fantabulous
co host, mister Grant Hughes. You know what time it is,
now that we're almost two weeks into the NBA season.
Is we are going to take stock of some of
the most dominant starts in the NBA and decide whether
or not they're for real, and then we'll wrap up
with like a couple of just quick notes on things
that we're monitoring. But we've isolated a handful of teams
that are, by their point differential, by their record, however
you want to frame it, they are lording over the
rest of the league and we need to endeavor to
find out is this real or is this not? Before
we get started, mister Grant Hughes, how are you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm ready to get off to a hot start here.
How about that, Let's be let's just keep everything focused
on getting out of the gates quickly. I think just
before we start, I do enjoy that we have some
usual suspects and some very unusual suspects for these hot starts,
so we have the right mix for discussion purposes.
Speaker 1: I think here having looked, and we'll go in order
of their point differential right now, because I think the
first team people are gonna be like, oh, like these guys,
but we're just coming by point differential. Had I needed
to pick which teams would have made this list before
the season, I'm pretty sure of the ones that made
the cut here, I might have been able to predict
two of them. I don't know that I saw the
others coming.
Speaker 2: And at least that many would have been teams you
would have projected to get off to horrible starts. And
I'm speaking for myself. So right, we really covered all
the bases.
Speaker 1: Well, let's figure out grant if we need to adjust
to our priors. The sleeper of all sleepers, the Denver Nuggets.
They are. Look, they did lose their opening game, so
like that was you know, maybe that was cause for concern.
They lost that game to the Warriors. They've also played
the Suns, the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards, as well as
the New Orleans Pelicans. That was a third quarter to behold.
I don't know if you call not not unless your
Pelicans fan. Grant in that game would have been your
impressions of the Nuggets so far.
Speaker 2: Grant, Well, you mentioned that the game that they lost,
Aaron Gordon had fifty points and hit ten threes, So
clearly he's a deeply selfish player and just went out
to get his Like the fact that that's the game
they lost when he was unbelievable, it just kind of
speaks to they're really good. They have beaten bad teams.
They beat the Suns. No, as you mentioned with the Wolves,
the Pelicans barely count as an opponent at this point.
With the way things are falling apart there, this is
roughly what should have been expected. In fact, even you've
mentioned here and on the Look Aheads, Adam Manas said
he thought Jokic would be sort of not passive but
not shoot the ball as often have a lower usage rate,
but be extremely efficient, averaging fourteen shots a game. That's
the lowest he's averaged since twenty seventeen eighteen, And I
have this is a plus one thing.
Speaker 1: I have the same thing in my notes, that same note,
and just to add to it, the second lowest permit
it field goal attempts of his career, so since he
was a rookie.
Speaker 2: Also hasn't hit a three this year. I mean he has,
but he's shooting it terribly from three and has gotten
him up. So like maybe if you're pointing to passivity
or whatever, like he's there's a large percentage for him
of his shots have been threes despite them not going in.
The typical stuff is happening with him on the court
plus twenty point two, but the Nuggets are plus five
point eight per hundred with Yokic off. So that's again
we'll just say now and then so we don't have
to say it again, even though I probably will small
sample caveats blah blah blah. But the idea that this
is a better Denver bench than we've seen so far
has held up because the Nuggets have been not just
like treading water but actually good. Without Jokic on the floor,
I'd imagine that'll come down a little bit, but just
breaking even would be spectacular based on the historical precedent there.
Got to ask you about Cam Johnson to me kind
of just been a guy out there. That was my
major impression of him. What are your thoughts there? Is
this an adjustment period? Is this just something about his
game that's different from Michael Porter Junior is who.
Speaker 1: Needs an adjustment period. Playing next to Nicoli open.
Speaker 2: The question, right, everything should be easier.
Speaker 1: I think I think he's gonna figure it out. He's
gone like the way that he's his hierarchy of offense
has changed over the past few years. This is sort
of night and day from a lot of stuff that
Brooklyn was doing with him last year. I think he
will ultimately be fine. And also, all that matters is
that the Nuggets saved all that sweet, sweet tax money,
which is just what's equally important. I look the other
thing you mentioned, the depth, and by the way, they
have the second best bench point differential in the league
per one hundred possessions. Right now, that's that is not
something that we sit here and ever say about the Nuggets.
I feel four games into a season, maybe we have
and I'm just misremembering. That's huge. Jamal Murray looking more
like Jamal Murray out of the gate for a lot
of the time. That's been huge for them as well.
The other guy that's really impressed me. Still, you look
at it, it's like, we'll be cool if he shot
more threes like man Peyton Watson in this regime, like
they just they're plugging more minutes elsewhere, and you mentioned
the time without Jokic. I know this will come down
sixty percent on two and forty three percent on threes
when Yokich isn't on the court. I will have to
see how that holds up against some stiffer competition. But
if you're here as the Nuggets grant, and you're looking
at this and you're saying, this is how Cam Johnson
has played thus far, aren't you feeling pretty good about Like, yeah,
you can look at the schedule and say, right, we
lost to the Warriors, and we beat up on a
bunch of teams that we should have beaten. And even
that the Minnesota game without Aunt, when I had watched
the beginning was like, oh no, this is not this
is gonna be like a weird night. They ended up
pulling it out. It was fine, So you beat three
teams you should have. I still feel really really good
about the Nuggets. A lot of Denver media Nuggets fans
it said, this is the deepest team that's ever been
assembled around Nikola Jokich, and I think that all already
just a handful of games end of the season, you
could probably comfortably sit here and say, yeah, I don't like,
I don't know what the alternative selection.
Speaker 2: Would be, which is funny because there's like two to
four playable bodies off the bench, and that's kind of it,
and that just by their standards in the past, that
that gets it done.
Speaker 1: Tim Hardaway Junior is I never thought there would have
been like any at this point, any sort of four
or five game stretch where he's hopping around like fifty
percent from three. They kind of just needed that guy
to come in and there's still not a high volume
three point shooting team, but look between him and the
three point champion to be Aaron Gordon, kind of just
like helping you space the floor as you get away,
as you go through whatever. This Cam Johnson stretches.
Speaker 2: One point of it's it's in red on my sheet,
so it's kind of that. That's how I'm color coding.
They're like, hey, look out, potentials. They're fifth in defense
when I put these together a couple of days ago,
so let's just call it a top ten defense. That's
with opponents shooting thirty two point seven percent from three,
so that'll come up, and they're giving up a lot
of threes. Opponents are getting up the seventh most uh
per hunter possessions against Denver. The other thing is they're
not defending the rim. Well, they're limiting shots, but opponents
are shooting like seventy four percent at the rim. That's
been kind of baked into the Denver experience in years past.
But some of the under the hood defensive stuff is
I think a potential problem. But like that's just to say,
you know, Denver is not going to be defined by
its defense anyway. That's that's just possibly given the quality
or lack of quality of competition so far, something to
flag to kind of to see if you know, if this,
if this start cools off. I don't think it'll be
because Cam Johnson continues to not, you know, shoot forty
percent from the field and is getting up like six
shots a game. It'll be just because some of the
defensive stuff is a little more problematic than it's been
so far.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that I that's a good point. I'm just wondering,
do you think some of their top units, just when
you have Christian Brown, if Peyton Wats is going to
play a little more Aaron Gordon, of course, I wonder
if just their core units, like maybe their top by
the end of the year, like two or three lineups, it's, oh,
they're defending it a top ten defensive pace.
Speaker 2: And that's all that That's all that'll matter is how
good are those the five guys for them, you know,
more so than most other teams. Like if you can
put a passable defensive lineup on the floor, that's going
to be enough. Assuming Johnson plays a little better. Gordon
really is just you know, nobody, Gordon's not a nine
out of ten or ten out of eleven three point shooter.
But between last year and how he started this year,
like that might just be we might need to adjust
our expectations for like how well he's gonna shoot it
and how much of a spacing value add he might be. Now,
so the offense is going to be great, it's just
do you get the do you get like a number
fifteen defensive rating? You know, out of your best your
your most used like playoff or crunch time unit. I
think that's that's very achievable given the personnel.
Speaker 1: The one final point of contention I have with this team,
No Yonis Valanciunis nicol Jokic minutes in the regular season,
Yet what's going on here up is that right, I
thought they were.
Speaker 2: I thought they were going to go to that more often.
That's missed opportunity.
Speaker 1: For sure, they do have the one thirty one seven
offensive rating when Yoa's Valentiu. This is on the court
without Nikoli jokicch and that's just I don't want to
boil it down to that, but that is one of
the biggest differences of this team is that the drop
off in steadiness from Jokic to his backup is as
narrow as it's ever been. And I'm also we didn't
get into this enough, but you didn't mention how he's
taking fewer shots and how his job overall just seems
just a little bit easier. How big of a deal
is that when you're talking about this is a playoff team.
I think that this is ultimate. Look his numbers. He's
getting triple doubles in every game, so he will still
factor pre eminently into the MVP discussion. But if this
becomes a year to where it's Nikoliokic doesn't need to
finish in the top two of MVP voting for the
Nuggets to be a three seed a two seed in
the Western Conference, doesn't it Just I don't know the
idea this is stupid, but the idea of Nikoliokic going
through a regular season to averagely like thirty three and
thirty four minutes a game res than thirty six or
thirty seven, Yeah, feels like a really really big deal
and maybe we'll get more games as the season goes
on where it's like dekol Jokic didn't have to play
a bunch in that fourth quarter.
Speaker 2: That to me is always the goal with a player
like him or even just your older stars, is like
could you just can you be up twenty five in
the third quarter and his night's just over like that?
That to me is like the ideal kind of the
load management stand in right, like, yeah, you maybe you
can play the second night of the back to back
if you only if we only needed you for twenty
six minutes or whatever because we blew a team out.
I think too, like, yes, as a preservative thing, it's
great if he just the lift is lighter during the
season because when you get to the postseason at some
point he sort of just will have to be the
be all end all, which is like what you know,
that's the job when you're when you're as good as
he is, I also think he wants to play this way.
I don't think you know what I mean, Like he's
always been the most reluctant shooter among elite scorers that
there's ever been, so like if he gets to just
kind of facilitate more, I think he's probably happier about that.
So that's kind of a two way win there. It's just, yeah,
he's taxed less severely and he kind of gets to
do what he wants to do, which is which is nice.
Speaker 1: Whose offensive start is more concerning for you very quickly,
Christian Brown or Cam Johnson.
Speaker 2: Cam Johnson just just because like he's replacing a guy
whose entire value was offensive and Brown is just kind of,
you know.
Speaker 1: Still fine inside the arc to three point percentage, though
it is always just weird with him. So the final
final question, Grant, is this Nuggets team real? It's a
tough one.
Speaker 2: I know I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go a pretty
firm yes on that one. We liked him before the season.
What's not to like? You got Jokic?
Speaker 1: I mean, their phonies don't speak on my behalf. I
think it can start his completely turn down.
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the San Antonio Spurs again, except it's
not just a Wemby conversation. We talked about Wemby last week,
but the Spurs, as we're recording this grant, have they
lost the game? They have not lost the game.
Speaker 2: It blows my mind that five, this five and oh
start is the first one they've ever had. How is
that possible that.
Speaker 1: If Dunk was the most overrated player in NBA history, you.
Speaker 2: Could only count on Tim Duncan four out of every
five nights. That's what everybody's always said about him. He
just doesn't show up. Were you thrown by that? I
couldn't believe. I assumed they'd had like a nine and
oh or a ten and oh start at some point.
Speaker 1: I would have assumed that they had multiple of the
right just looking back at the teams that they fielded,
it's ridiculous.
Speaker 2: Uh, well you got So. We've talked a lot about
the Spurs and Wemby. We can definitely do more of that.
I just think, like, of course they have the number
one defensive rating per cleaning the glass. I don't think
it's quite as good if you factor in garbage time.
But just for everything we discussed already about what he
does to an opposing offense, like just are there good?
Are they gonna be number one all season? Is everybody
like are the thunder gonna get back up there?
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know, because crazy Wemby is, he's
like a defensive system unto himself and the starting unit.
Grant opponents are actually shooting thirty nine point five percent
against the Spurs is starting five, but only forty one
point three percent on twoes, including forty five point seven
percent at the rim and forty point six percent from
float or range. That is that is insanity, and that's like, yes,
that is Wemby driven, but also having Steph Castle's a monster,
and so that's going to certainly help. The other thing
that I think has really helped this team to try
and deviate away from Wemby, Like what is the way
to go here? Tylan Harper is might I know the
shooting percentage isn't quite there yet, but is probably their
best driver when you're just looking at the passes. He
is thrown out of those things. I know dearon Fox
has not played yet. Of course that's been huge for them.
And the other element here is just when Luke Cornett
is on the floor with I like the stuff with
Luke Cordett and Wemby is fun, but when Luke Cornette
is on the floor without Wemby, they are plus twenty
one point two per one hundred and a one to
twenty two point five offensive rating. And just kind of
to that point, I think that Mitch Johnson's done a
really nice job of this might get into the question
of Okay, I know they don't have Fox, I know
they don't have Jeremy Sohan right now, but am I
getting into the question of are they a little bit
top heavier than we thought? I just feel like he's
done a really good job in those secondary units of
stocking them with starters to ensure that they're gonna be
able to tread water or make those minutes together. And
just the you know Devin Vessel, who's been really good
to start the O. That's our guy, Devin Vessell, validating
everything we thought about him. The minutes with no Wemby,
but at least two of him Castle and Harper like
they Buy and Large been really good, especially the Viceell
and Harper minutes. And so I like the way that
Mitch Johnson is kind of fused and fiddled with the
rotation patterns. I'm just wondering if I know Dearon Fox
is gonna come back, But is like the rotation a
little bit top heavier than because it's they're not short
on guards at the moment really when you were thinking
about it, So what does that do to the rotation?
Is it, Oh, we're gonna see a trickle down effect
of Julian Champenny getting fewer minutes. He really can't because
I think you need his wing presence. But I'm very
curious to see how he handles that to this point though,
I like what he's done during a lot of the
non Wemby minutes. That was my long winded way of
just saying those like abies, no.
Speaker 2: That that has to be noted because he's just just
strip it all the way down and they're they're basically
break even with with women Yama off the floor cleaning
the glasses point point zero plus point zero one, which
is when you know, given the youth and given how
much of the shot creation is being handled by inexperienced players.
That's kind of incredible. I just think I think Harper
and Castle have both wildly exceeded my high expectations for them.
Harper in particular, as we got into the season and
we saw some preseason sample, which there wasn't a ton of,
you did start to hear from a lot of people, Oh,
he knows how to play, or he's ready and all
that stuff, Like he has so much craft and is
so comfortable like physically attacking the basket and just a
really he has such a broad variety of finishes. I've
watched a ton of this burst, so like, I have
a lot of thoughts on them. He seems like he's
going to be a rookie and he hasn't shot it
well from three so far. Either maybe he won't, which
is great. I mean he should have the ball a ton,
but but yeah, so off the dribble is maybe more important.
But his ability to get downhill and get like compromise
the defense as a driver, and he's just he's a
really really good He's a legitimate point guard, Like he
sees the floor like a true point guard creatively sees
the pass. That's like the second easiest pass to see.
You know it's not he's like moved past the automatic
strong side corner if it's the guy's left open. Like
all the basics are totally like he does that, you
know just by rote, but like he sees the second
pass in the third pass and creates other Like he's legitimate.
I think he's gonna be a positively impactful player as
a rookie and castle the shooting is what it is.
Like he's shooting. He is getting him up enough, but
there are definitely stretches where the game plan is to
leave him alone and dare him to shoot because that's
a good possession for the opposing defense. But he brings
so much defensively and he brings so much attacking the
basket that he's been a major positive too. Here's the question,
would you feel better about the Spurs right now if
Dearon Fox and his contract were not on this roster
and you just had that flexibility in that space and
what you might be able to do with it to
address what you're talking about, which is maybe the lack
of a wing or a forward that's like a dead
eye shooter or a two way guy with size because
I think Harp and Castle have been so impressive that
it's a discussion you kind of have to have. Maybe
it's a good problem, but it's it's one that needs
to discussed.
Speaker 1: Right I think I would. So you need to tell
me who are you replacing Daron Fox with.
Speaker 2: Just like the flexibility, So yeah, if not unless I
give you I guess it's not fair if I don't
give you a name.
Speaker 1: Right, But even if you were telling me it was
the flex I'd rather have Daron Fox because one of
the things you mentioned with Harper is the ball needs
to be and is going to need to be in
his hands a ton right now, You're still gonna want
to see it in his hands a ton, But him
and Daron Fox just based off the way that Dylan
Harper has played some of the decisions, like he's made
off the catch. If you can put him in more
of those situations where Daron Fox is the focal point,
where it's Dylan Harper is going to attack from the
second side, that's I think going to optimize Dylan Harper
and Daron Fox together. Now, where I think you might
get into issues is are can you play all three
of those guys together. That's a fair question, but I
don't know if you need to answer it. I think
you've shown that you can play two of these guys
together already without an issue. You maybe now you have
Fox and Castle struggle together, you do have the outlet
of well, Castle and Harper like have more of this
inbuilt chemistry and familiarity. Now. I'm actually more excited to
see the things that they'll be able to do offensively,
And maybe it makes Victor Wembinyama's job even harder to
wear the paint touches that we all like, Does he
have to like not even work as hard to get
them now? Too? What I would be concerned about, aside
from the typical of the three guard stuff, two of
them are questionable shooters. What happens to Wenby offensively? If
he's going to be like with Castle right now, it's
not as big of a deal. But if there's a
Harper and Fox unit and that becomes a core lineup
for you, does Victor Webbinyama does he get marginalized at
all on that?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 1: What people have loved what he's done this season, but like,
is he gonna turn into more of kind of a
I don't want to call him a space in place
guy during those minutes. And that's fine for some possessions
for sure, but you don't want to see that just
because one, this is so much fun what we're watching
right now from him grant, it's just like insane. But
also two, the variety that he's shown on offense, I
think is what's been more valuable than anything.
Speaker 2: So I'm glad you brought that up because I think
this is a little bit separate from the how do
you fit these three guards together? And my short answer
to that would just be I don't know how, but
it can't be by reducing. What I don't want is
Harper to play fewer than the twenty six minutes he's
played so far this season. And I don't want Castle
to play less than the thirty one and change he's
played so far. So, however you need to make that
happen to get Fox's minutes. It's gonna pull from McLaughlin,
it's gonna pull from Champagne, it might pull from Harrison Barnes. Great,
just don't reduce Harper in Castle's minutes is one but
two with Wemby still up in the air. As far
as like what are you offensively right The answer has
kind of been like everything I guess so far because
he's kind of canned the high volume threes, he's getting
the line more effectively. But to me right now, I
think he feels like an evolutionary like Yannis type player
where the goal is to get him going downhill in
space because he's able to change direction, he's able to
finish over the top, he's able to extend, like all
this stuff to me, like forget the Oh my god,
he's seven five and he's gonna shoot twelve three is
a game which is kind of what things looked like
last year. Like if you're trying to project forward, what's
his role? I think the downhill on ball attacking to
me right now looks like the future for him. And
how does adding a third guard that needs the ball
to the mix effect that, because right now, like I
just his ability to attack. We may just get to
a point where it looks like how Yanis gets defended,
where everybody is pulled in and everybody's shading to him
and the three point shooting around him becomes critical and
this weird setup where now you have three point guards
playing together, none of whom are major threats from three
that's weird, right, So one, Webby's good enough to adjust.
But if the case, if it's the case that well,
the best offensive version of the Spurs is Wemby on
the ball in a space floor attacking downhill like Giannis does.
Then things get weird, right, Like it doesn't The pieces
don't quite fit there, So that'll be something I'm monitoring
going forward. It's like, it's great that this is a
thing you have to contend with because one Wemby has
this dimension that is new and very cool and effective,
and two you've got all these good on ball guards
that you've got to figure out what to do with. Like, right,
it's a good space to be in, but there are
scenarios where it gets clunky in a hurry. If this
is what Wemby's going to be, which who knows, right,
maybe there's like a third evolutionary step for him.
Speaker 1: I think if it becomes a concern or I just
feel like they will go out of their way to
ensure that it never happens like that. And we've even
kind of seen it with look at Devin Vessel's usage
this year, where seventy seven plus percent of his baskets
are coming off of this, which is just a number
that is far greater than it was last year. You've
seen the way that I think, I'll look at it
this way. I think d Aaron Fox may be the
guy that needs to make the biggest adjustment of anyone.
And even I say that the way he played off
of Domas Simonis in San Antonio, it's in Sacramento. Excuse me,
I just don't know that I feel like it's an issue.
I know that we haven't seen him play yet with
this group, but after watching the Spurs this year, I'm
kind of just like, no, I don't think it's going
to be an issue. And if it does become an issue,
I don't think it's going to come at the expense
of when Binyama. I think what will happen is it
becomes an issue because they've gone out of their way
to make sure that Wenby is allowed to be the
best possible version of himself. And then you get into
the discussion of okay, well is there a guard that's
the odd man out here? And that's the question we
need to have. And right now, based off how they started,
it's easy to say, well, it should be Fox, he's
paid the most, he's older, hasn't played yet. I want
to see it all come together. So it's still a question.
But you said this at the top. It's kind of
a great problem to have. I've even wondered, I don't
want I think he's a great player. I actually think
he's so critical well because of what he could do
off the ball. I've almost wondered, well, does Devin Vesselle
become the guy that's the odd man out because they're
so heavily invested in these other three?
Speaker 2: I think so we're way out over our skis, or
at least I am on Harper. I think I think
Harper might be a better compliment to Wimbinyama than Fox,
like right now, just because of what he's able to
do as a facilitator. Now, Fox could come in and
shoot forty percent from three and just unlock this other
the handoff game with Wemby that we haven't really seen,
and that'll be wrong. But I have the same thought
of like if Visell was a forty percent shooter for
his career instead of like thirty six and had higher
volume and didn't shoot quite so many pull up twos
and was and was slightly bigger, he'd be a very
different player, but you wouldn't be talking about it with
him as like, well, somebody's gonna have to have their
minutes cut, and Visselle might be it. I think he
is someone that I especially if Harper or Fox or
Castle sort of demonstrate more consistency from three, then I
think Vassell does just lose some minutes because he's not
a creator like either of those three guys are. And
he's not as good a defender as Castle. Few guards
are at this.
Speaker 1: Point, right but he probably while Fox is probably the
second best defensively of those three. I think what helps
You mentioned the shooting, though, I think what helps is
I mean, right now he's at forty percent on eight
plus attempts per game, and even.
Speaker 2: If he holds that, then you can't take his minutes away, which.
Speaker 1: Is the other thing too that I've been thinking about.
By the way, in the Just I love the Luke
Cornett Wemby minutes that just gets sprinkled in, and I
know you can't go to that too often because of
the way the rest of the backup big rotation set up.
They're grabbing fifty five percent of their own misses when
they're on the four together. That is obscene.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's but there's a lot of really positive indicators
so far in addition to just five and zero being
the big one.
Speaker 1: The other thing I've thought about this is now too
big picture. We need to talk about what we view
the Spurs as in the actual We both hit there
under this year, by the way, in terms of full disclosure,
but very quickly. Does Jeremy so Hands still have a
place on this team to you when he comes back
from the wrist injury, because I don't, I don't see
it official.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think so. I think the offensive limitations
he has just are even bigger problems when you have
three guys in the back court that aren't great shooters
and that kind of need the ball like so him
just and it's like if if you had a spacing
center that needed defensive help. Sure, but like Wemby is
the defense, you don't need another defense only guy on
the floor. That's just a waste, you know.
Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say we were both too
low on the Spurs coming into the season, But are
they real as a contender?
Speaker 2: I'm not going contender yet, I'm going like we really
made a mistake in not just penciling them into the
top six right like that. That's as far as I'll
go right now. But that all depends on the young
guards sustaining this, which is an if. But I'm just
so encouraged by Harper in particular that I, you know,
they should be one of the six best teams in
the West. They're off, They're ahead of the game so far.
Speaker 1: I buy them as top six. Now, yeah, that would
be that. Maybe that's a better way to frame or
not shop me though, if they just end up being
top three, uh through Wemby, all things are possible. As
you like to say, our next team, grant the Miami Heat.
They have had quite the start to the season. They've
already used I think like three or four different starting lineups.
They've played Orlando, Memphis, the Knicks, the Hornets, and actually
just played the Spurs lost that game. What do you
make of So there's so many different things that you
would have to figure out whether you want to buy
or sell with them. I kind of want to start,
what have you thought about the change in how they
have played offensively this year from years past?
Speaker 2: Well, a little bit of deja vou right, because this
is just the Memphis discussion from last season. We're like
right down to their last in UH pick and roll
ball handler frequency, last in pick and roll roll man frequency.
They just don't set screens on the ball. Cooper Morehead,
you probably saw this. They when Cooper Morehead put together,
they're averaging twenty two pick and roll possessions per one
hundred through their first three games. The lowest mark of
the past thirteen years was almost double that. So like
there it's an extreme just disregard for the pick and
roll and on ball screens, which is what we were
talking about with Memphis last year. They just they spaced
the floor. They had a super high isolation frequency, and
they timed their cuts and pinned down screens. They do
set off ball screens to create advantage situations and space
the defense out. This matters a little more for the
Heat because one of the things that was always wild
about Memphis doing that is you have John Morant, who's
just a really difficult player to guard when you set
a screen for him on the ball. The Heat don't
have that guy, especially with Tyler Hero out.
Speaker 1: So like it makes sense to Powell now barely right.
Speaker 2: It makes sense to take a crack at this when,
like Davion Mitchell is not like a conventional offensive point
guard him Hawkes has been on the ball a ton
because he can't shoot, and most the rest of the
roster can, so he's not a conventional facilitator in that
sense either. So I shocker. I love this. I love
that they're trying something weird and that it makes more
sense for this roster than it did with Memphis, which
is kind of the last team that went this like
far off the map in terms of just we're going
to play offense differently. They've had two games with a
one to thirty offensive rating or better, which for the
heat is like just I don't know, I didn't look
it up, but I would be did they have two
games with a one thirty offensive rating all of last year? Probably,
but like not that many. More so, the results have
been have been pretty spectacular. The transition frequencies way up.
I'm sure you've got something similar to all is too,
especially off live rebounds. They were close to last in
overall transition frequency and running off live rebounds last year.
They're sixth and thirteenth respectively this year. So more pace,
more space, fewer screens. It's all been very fun. I like,
I don't have a lot more to say than that.
Speaker 1: To the pace part that I think is absolutely real.
Sixteen point three percent of their points so far have
come on the break, and that number was higher before
they ran into Wemby right, and all.
Speaker 2: These numbers are wrecked and they were way more impressive
before that Spurs game.
Speaker 1: But that's still fifth, and so they have not been.
And so last year, just to some context, they were
twenty first in the share of their points coming on
the break. The year before that twenty three twenty four,
they were twenty second. The year before that twenty two
to twenty three, they were twenty seventh. And you mentioned
transition frequency. Can you guess or do you know the
last time they have ranked in the top ten of
transition frequency as a team.
Speaker 2: I would assume it was when Lebron, Wade and Bosh
were on the team.
Speaker 1: It was twenty thirteenenty fourteen. And that's actually, honestly, I
thought we would have had to go further back to
them to be there. I'm not gonna lie, and they're
fifth right now in doing things like that. So what
I'm honoring here the people have made a huge deal
about the screening thing. Like, by the way, they've had
some good wins this year, like beating the Knicks, that
was a good win. We don't know what Orlando is
just yet, but like that's a gritty team. I wonder
if the Heat are benefiting from just what happened with
the Grizzlies, where teams didn't really know how to defend
it yet and it was just so like a clectic
that they didn't really know what to do with it.
With that being said, what I do think we're discounting
is they could start using more ball screens to vary
up the offense once their best passer or second best passer,
depending on how you feel about Casperus Hiakacionas is playing
games for them like it's not outside the realm of
And you're also probably gonna have to slow things down
for Tyler Hero a little bit. He hasn't been afforded
the opportunity to play this way, but now he's coming
back from an injury and doesn't have a ton of
experience playing with this team. There is a chance it
could undermine it. But you're not going to use Jimai
hawkis junior on the ball the same way you would
Tyler Hero. When Jimi Hawki's junior can't shoot, you're not
going to.
Speaker 2: Use That makes is way less valuable if you can't
have him bring the ball up in an issue.
Speaker 1: Correct, right, it does, but it could be interesting the
fact I think it helps that Tyler Europe and also
play off the ball, so when some of just like
if you want Hockett, don't don't do it all the time.
But I think that they have. Since a lot of
the comps have come back to the Grizzlies, I'm wondering
if don't you think they have more avenues to explore
than that Grizzlies team did if they wanted to. This
doesn't have to be being eccentric, being being like anomalist
on offense, doesn't have to be They're all everything the
way it felt like it was for that Memphis team
for the first seventy five percent of the season.
Speaker 2: Well, again, like with Memphis, it was always it worked
until it didn't, and it but and yet it always
seemed like a strange choice for a team that had Moran.
It feels more with it, like I agree that there's
definitely gonna be room for more conventional Uh, offensive sets
wants the heater hole. And that's when when you have
power full time, when you have hero full time, like
you're just gonna want to run some more conventional actions
sometimes with those guys, I think they can be they
can Yeah, maybe there is room just for more to
do both right for when when the heat are healthy.
One kind of again, like what does this look like
if they're not shooting forty one percent from three and
almost forty three percent on non corner threes, Like, how
how much of this offense are we like drooling over
if they're shooting the average from three, probably still talking
about it just because it's it's unusual. But I don't
think the numbers are anywhere near as good. Uh if
we're just having like what you'd expect from three for
this team. So just that's just like sorry to like
let some air out of the balloon. But but that's
kind of what I'm going to be monitoring, is does
all this ISO driving and like catch on the move
stuff look as good as a process if the results
are not bolstered by unsustainable three point shooting. You know,
some of the things about.
Speaker 1: Well they still do their fifth in defense, right, now,
which they could help.
Speaker 2: And that's the given right. We know the heater are
going to defend. So that's why this offense matters so much.
Speaker 1: I will say, please Eric's polstra fire the Khalil whear
Bam out of Bio minutes into the sun. I don't
want to see you anymore. I don't. I don't like them,
and it's just it's weirdly feels like it's marginal like
Bam it maybe helps him on defense but marginalizes him
on offense, or just like messes with both of the
Biggs's usage too much. Bam this season during the wear
at of Bio minutes is shooting like twenty three point
one percent on twoes, is what I have in my notes,
and it's not doing what it's supposed to defensively. They
have a one twenty nine defensive rating together while scoring
one hundred and nine points per one hundred peresions on offense.
It's only been like a forty something minute sample size,
but last year it was just there's I understand that
you want to play them together and what it allows
Bam to do specifically defensively, but I don't is that's
going to contribute at points to Bam shooting too many threes,
maybe the way that the heater playing right now, as
well as people want to see him not taking his
many three point attempts. There's a lot of questions on offense.
But I also to put some air back in the balloon.
Tyler Hero hasn't played and Norman Powell has missed two
games for this team. So the fact that they're here
is kind of a pretty big deal. We did identify them,
or at least I did in the preseason just oh,
they might be sneaky deep. Some of the names that
I mentioned as them being like Pelley Larson has not
done a ton for them this year, but like Davion
Mitchell you kind of mentioned him like that's that you
have the baseline of what I would say is with Wiggins,
with what Hawk has been able to do. This year. Now,
how does it change when Heroes back in the fold.
If you believe they have a pretty high defensive baseline,
they don't need to be second in three point efficiency,
they don't need to have a top five, top eight
offense or whatever it is. I think the question is
do you think that they can have an above average
offense with this group? And I feel like the answer
is yes. I might have more questions about can the
defense sustain if you're playing Tyler Hero Norman Powell a
bunch of minutes together, which I assume is going to be.
Speaker 2: The player, right. That was one of the things coming in,
is there's all there felt like there was gonna be
some necessary offense defense trade offs just depending on who
they decided to play. I like that you set the
the can they or can't they line for offense kind
of at like fifteenth or just league average, because I
do think we need to throttle back expectations a little bit.
But that would be a pretty big step forward if
the offense was break even and maybe this defense really
is top ten. That's how you get certainly into the
top six in the East. I guess my question for you,
because you've been higher on them than I was, can
this be a top four team in the East? Like?
Is that is that too? Does that depend too much
on the offense sustaining for more than the four five
games they've played?
Speaker 1: Honestly, I think this is the one that I don't
think it's real to the extent of are the heat
better than we thought? Sure? Are the heat a top four,
top six team in the East. That's the one I'm
not ready to say is real yet, in part because
I just think Cleveland and New York are going to
be better at some point. I would say the same
thing about Atlanta too, and Orlando as well. But what
I think is, just you mentioned it. The offense would
have to sustain at this rate. And look, maybe maybe
they're just a better shooting team that like, what if
Simoni Fontecio is just going to have a bounce back
a year, and if Norman Powell's healthy and Tyler hero
is healthy, this team is kind of stocked with shooters.
And if you can create enough space, because look the
value of bam Adebayo, by the way, if teams respect
him even a little bit at his position from behind
the three point line. That's why the Deveon Mitchell Lanes
are open. That's why the Jia Hawkas Junior lanes are
open too. But a top five like that, I'm going
to sell the idea of the top five one. It
just seems a little bit of a stretch. But if
if it's not copycat league grant, everyone's kind of out
on what Memphis tried last year. And even though they
tried it, you already kind of said this. They had
the conventional lead ball handler in John Moran. I think
Tyler Hero is better in that respect than to people
give him credit. But it's in the same vein as
kind of Devin Booker with the Suns to where they
can do it. But you're not necessarily optimizing your offense
that way. If this Heat team, why's up being even
top ten in offense? Man, there's gonna be a trickle
down effect across the league for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would sell the sustainability of this offense as
much as anything because of the shooting. The three point
shooting is unsustainable and the numbers are very different. If
they're not making everything. I am not, but I will
buy being interested like they. I definitely am gonna watch
more Heat than I did last I mean last year,
which was not a lot because that was a slog
all season. But I'm always You've always got my attention
if you're gonna get a little weird on offense. So
if anything, as much as anything, just to see like
what a defense is, what's the solve gonna be here? Like,
because Memphis didn't really show it to us for long
enough to establish a here are the principles you throw
at this this offense, right, So I as much as anything,
what's the counter this? Because there will be one? And
that's another thing to keep in mind is like, like
you said at the top, half of the effectiveness of
this approach might just be in teams are not prepared
for it because you don't see it more than in
this case, like twice a year. So like, I think
that's another thing I'm gonna be really interested to monitor.
Speaker 1: Can I Can I ask you a question? I'm just
asking questions here. Just ask who's more important to this
team long term? Khalil Ware or Nikola Jovic?
Speaker 2: Can we just wait until the end of the year
and see which of them starts more games? And basics
around that.
Speaker 1: I'm asking you. I'm asking you this question now.
Speaker 2: I think it's where. And that's while acknowledging it's just
a floor ceiling thing. He's been super inconsistent. Uh, he
just night to night. It's been hard to know what
you're gonna get from him. But the best version of
him is more valuable to me than the best version
of Yovic. So that I'll that's a little bit of
a cop out. But Yovic is the more reliable guy.
I would say, but I think if where becomes what
he can become, then I'd rather have that guy.
Speaker 1: I think I'm officially and I probably would have done
this last season too. I'm putting my stamp on Yovic here,
give me this someone. I think there's there's more playmaking
to plumb from him. And just if he's he hasn't
even had the best start to the season. He look
at he shooting forty percent from three, and that's the
team percentage from three is an outlier. But you dig
into some of the like Andrew Wiggins is shooting thirty
three percent, that's not that's kind of what like Mormon
Powell has done this before, and Tyler Hero great shooter.
I'm so I want both of those guys, by the way,
Powell Hero to come back because one I hate injuries,
but two, what does this offense look like? How does
it change? How does it sustain? With them in the fold?
Our next team, Grant, can you talk to me about
the Oklahoma City Thunder. They're still rebuilding. We're hoping that
they exit it pretty soon. U they might have won,
they'll maybe they'll win a championship. Oh, that's right, they
already won one, are they? Are they for real? Fake?
Speaker 2: Fake? Two double overtimes? You needed two double overtimes for wins.
You've only won two games by double digits. Lame. The
guys are paper tigers. They're not They're not real.
Speaker 1: So I think did we Was it you and I
that had this discussion about approaching things from the perspective
of I want to poke holes in what we think
is just true? And so the reflexive answer is, okay,
OKAC has dealt with injuries and they still have one
of the best net ratings in the league. They're fine,
Like they're real and they are real. But I was
trying to just find some things to be concerned about,
and so I have some things that we could talk
about if you're if you're ready for it.
Speaker 2: Is one of them that they can't make threes.
Speaker 1: Uh, it is they are shooting twenty eight point eight
percent on wide open threes. The other thing is that
they are nineteenth in half court offense. All of this
is presented with the fact that they have players missing
time again. Jadubbs yet to play, Chet has missed their
past two games. What I so again, this is something
that I wasn't concerned about because they're gonna shoot better
than wide open threes. I actually think I know he
wasn't a huge part of the actual title run last year,
but Isaiah Joe coming back, I think we'll be big
for their Like he's a really good regular season player.
Speaker 2: If you twenty off the bench, no problem is first
game back. It's super fun for everybody when they could
just throw a guy out there that can do that.
Speaker 1: What I do find if we were to focus on
something is they are dead last in transition frequency so far,
and that includes after grabbing a live rebound, and they're
twenty sixth in the percentage of their points coming in transition.
If you are OKAC and your half court offense is
going to be rickety beyond Shake Guilders Alexander being Shake
Gilders Alexander, that would be a potential problem. You can
say that it'll get remedied when Jay Dubb comes back,
because he will grab the ball and he will go.
But he's come back from a risk injury on a
shooting hand. We don't know what that's like. We don't
know what that's gonna look like. Is there a concern
level there for you at all, or do you counter
that with something else?
Speaker 2: No, I think if you're looking for actual concerns, it
has to be kind of what we saw them run
into last season, where the half court offense does get
loggie and it becomes can SG draw foul? And it
becomes can Jadab Can this be one of the nights
when Jadab is good enough as a creator to make
stuff happen in the half court? And so, yeah, that
is the issue still. And so if maybe if Wallace
hadn't missed a game and Caruso hadn't missed time, maybe
there'd be more steals, maybe there'd be more transition frequency
because of that kind of thing, Maybe that they could
just ratchet up the chaos more. Maybe they're just not like,
maybe they know they don't need to do that yet,
they don't need to play it hard enough to create
all the chaos that leads to easy baskets. But that
is that is what you would focus on, I think
as a counter to that. Suddenly, and people that were
paying attention last year maybe aren't surprised by this. They
have a guy in aj Mitchell that is also a
pretty good half court creator. If you do run into
some trouble. So just conjuring him out of a late
draft pick and being able to get eighteen plus from
him and good spot up shooting and like really good
for what they need him to do facilitation feels unfair,
But he's been really good, and he is in theory,
like one of the fixes for the problem that you're
talking about, where if things get bogged down, you can
put him out there with Shae, with Jadab, with Chet
and suddenly you've got four guys that can make stuff
happen from a standstill. Maybe that alleviates some of the
half court clunkiness, right, Like just having him as a
as a as a leverta pole gives the Thunder, you know,
a team filled with advantages like one more.
Speaker 1: And when he is playing without Shay aj Mitchell, without Shay,
this Thunder are a plus five point three per one
hundred possessions. That's actually worse than their overall net rating
without Shay this season. But I think what he's done
is he's helped he's create havoc, like when he's able
to get inside the arc and the Thunder shooting almost
fifty five percent from two during those minutes and he's
going to tee up a lot of that stuff. I
also did want to ask you before he ended up
missing the past two games. Chet Holme run again, man,
just kind of like finishing through contact better those drives.
Speaker 2: There's what he some new stuff, new stuff. It's pretty exciting.
Speaker 1: This is just I don't I'm not gonna bring up
I will default to Jay dub On, who is the
second best player on this team still. But we're doing
it again. We did this last season, I'm doing it
again now. It's chet Holmegren, if he stays healthy, is
just such an anomaly for what he's able to do
on both the offense and the defensive end, and that
just that factors into all of this too, to where
it's just you can be a little bit concerned about
the offense. But chet Holmgren has missed forty percent of
their game so far. J dubb as yet to play.
I guess if you wanted to nitpick, their schedule has
been since facing Houston, and even the Indiana game was
tough because you just faced that team in the finals,
so you guys kind of know the ins and outs
of each other, and then you go when you blast
the Hawks, that we thought they were gonna be a
good team. Dallas has a lot of big bodies. I mean,
the Kings aren't a real basketball teams. Keyshawn George out
there make his claim for sophomore Moo's improved player. So
you could nitpick and say the schedule has not been brutal,
but when you look at who is misst time, including
a case in Wallace and Alex Caruso, this defense not
the best in the league anymore, apparently because Wemby exists.
I just I guess the question here we know this
under our contenders, but it's do you buy this team?
Maybe it won't be easy, but as of right now
there what was their over? Under? Said at we both
went over or did you go?
Speaker 2: It was I went under. I went under because I
only thought they'd win sixty two games. I think it
was like sixty two and a half or something something.
Speaker 1: Right, I'm gonna ask you, will this team win more
than sixty three or more games this season? That's what
we have to buy or sell. I'm gonna buy it
because I already did, but.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I have to buy it now.
But then that really the question becomes, is this how
it's gonna be all year where they're just never at
full strength, for both deliberately and because guys are nicked up,
Like they're never you know, they're not going to push
guys back. They're gonna give players nights off after a
finals run, and this will be this will be what
they are, which again is undefeated. Or if you really
want to bang the over, do you say they're like
basically playing with one hand tied behind their back. What
happens when they can hit you with either one? And
then do they just win seventy plays? Right? Like? That's
that's I don't know which way to go with this.
But if they get to like ten, twelve, fifteen and
oh or something like that, then we got to start
talking about seventy four and eight, Right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say like seventy five and seven seems
more accurate. But yeah, this is just the fact that
they have one I don't Yeah, there's their known commodity,
but they're also just given the context of who is
miss games and how some of them have consecutive double
overtimes open the season, you would think that you might
feel just like a teensy bit worse about this team.
I do not know for anyone who is wondering next team.
This is not a squad either of us would have
predicted we'd be talking about in this podcast. Your Chicago
Bulls great one of us.
Speaker 2: Dan, I mean, I just what was the over under?
Thirty four and a half?
Speaker 1: So didn't we both hit the over? But you were bete.
Speaker 2: Best bet at it? I mean they so let's see
four and oh, they got seventy eight left. They only
need to win thirty one more games, pretty easy. Let's
start with the schedule to get a little more serious
about this. They beat Detroit, who has kind of been
a mess sporadically, especially offensively because nobody can do anything
besides Kate Hunningham. They won at Orlando, arguably an even
bigger offensive mess for stretches this season, and they were
also playing the Magic War second night of a back
to back. Beat Atlanta, wildly disappointing team so far. Beat
the Kings, who, in addition to Dan Favalley's words, are
not an actual basketball team. The Kings were also playing
the second night of a back to back. The schedule.
Dan has been suspect that said, I don't care they
banked these four wins they're going over no problem. I can't.
I didn't really imagine that I be like the Bulls
guy this year. But I'm so ready to embrace it
and just to be ecstatic when they win thirty nine games.
Can't wait? Really, where do you think?
Speaker 1: Where do we think Trey Jones finishes on the MVP?
Vallot ask my.
Speaker 2: Question top ten? Probably? Uh? He is? I mean, I've
I've hit bang this drum a couple of times. The
shooting has been preposterous.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: I would assume Kevin Herder, Modus Bizillis Vucevic, Patrick Williams,
and Trey Jones are all over fifty percent from the field.
Assume Jones and Williams are all over fifty percent from
three opponents? Dan, do you want to guess this is unfair?
Speaker 1: Why? I already know it's? What?
Speaker 2: Are opponents shooting from three? Uh?
Speaker 1: Thirty two?
Speaker 2: Too high? Twenty six point two percent?
Speaker 1: That is actually do you know what they're shooting? A
wide open threes? Is that part of your notes?
Speaker 2: No corner threes? I got a corner three stat, So
give me the wide open threes Bull's opponents are shooting?
What on wide open threes?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say so, I'm gonna set the over under
a twenty nine point seven better, I'm going under yeah,
twenty seven point four.
Speaker 2: Yeah, nineteen point four percent on corner threes. Nineteen point
four percent on corner threes. So that uh, that number
four defensive rating, not sure how sustained?
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on now. I think what is happening
here is that the Bulls are choosing which of the
players are shooting threes, and the way that they're they
are forcing the ball and guiding it into those they
do do to their defense. They limit corner threes at
least so far, don't they so? But yeah, this is
just why they should.
Speaker 2: Let They should let teams shoot as many as they want.
They're only making two out of ten.
Speaker 1: Oh no, I'm sorry, house looking house looking at the wrong.
Yeah they are. So they're six in their corner three
point percent like frequency of threes coming from the corners.
You're right, they should. They should jack that up there.
Speaker 2: Let more, let them shoot more. They can't. Clearly, nobody
can make them against the bulls because they're choosing the
right players to leave open in the corners. Let's do
positives though their four and zero Uh, their offenses middle
of the pack. Josh Giddy looks pretty good. He's making
his threes still, if that's a real thing. If Giddy's
gonna make threes, Dan's hands up? Would you like that question?
Speaker 1: Is you mentioned that their offense is middle league is
starting with the positives? Is that a positive? Because with
this group, shouldn't they looking at the personnel, wouldn't you
have guessed that they would have an offense first identity
and so be middle of the road in that while
your defense that okay, cool if we're talking about Jedi
three point defense or do you really you would have
to believe in Oh, there's something here with the defense
for us to say middle of the road offensively, that's
rocks all great, Grant, that's a follow up question.
Speaker 2: I have a comment. I don't have a question. I
have a comment. I think maybe the better way to
phrase it is that number fifteen offensive rating is feels
a lot more sustainable and real than the number four
defensive rating. I guess to say it's a positive is
probably a little bit too much. But yeah, they might
even be better than that. Again, I went through the numbers.
Everybody's making half their shots are better, but it's easier
to believe that this team will, especially like Manus Bizellis.
We haven't really talked about him. He looks like someone
that's gonna be a pretty dangerous downhill weapon who might
also be at least league average from three already. So
that's kind of a new arrow in the quiver. And
he should just play more than he did last year too,
going as a sophomore. So like there's there's real I
don't know, like viable looks here offensively for the bulls
in the in ways that like there just aren't on
the defensive end. So maybe that's the way to frame it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point. I don't And we could
say that Vouch will calm down, but we weren't we
saying that for pretty much all of last year.
Speaker 2: And he yeah, I mean right, he might just be
a forty percent guy. I don't know, like you could have,
you know, like late career, and for him, it's very
late in the career to be having a one of
the best season ever he's had shooting the ball last year.
But isn't it easier to believe, like, oh, he's just
improved at like a standstill skill than it is to
you know, like if he were I don't know this,
it's like ridiculous to even think of it. But if
like suddenly he's just great off the dribble or crazy
like he's just the athleticism is gonna go, maybe the
shot is actually something that at this late stage of
the career you can get better at. It's like one
of the only things you can improve at. I don't know,
just looking looking for reasons to be positive about my Bulls.
Speaker 1: I did hope that this team would run more, and
I don't know how much of that is a function of, Okay,
we need to see what Kobe White looks like, but
I thought that this like they have not really been
out in transition a ton. They were one of They're
still kind of fun to watch, but they were a
lot more aesthetically pleasing to me last season. But maybe
that says more about me that But it's also funny.
You could be watching their broadcast like, oh, we think
Billy Dunnan's gonna bring in Kevin hur to get some
size on the court, and its to speak to the
types of lineups they're running, which is just so fun.
Did you mention pat Patrick Williams Renaissance bargain sight.
Speaker 2: To behold great value contract right, just that the Bulls
knew that that they needed to lock them down at
that number so that nobody else would.
Speaker 1: Be the way. The fact that they're here too, and
they're starting five is just getting trucked during its minutes
on the court. There's there's so much about this team
that doesn't make sense right now that I almost just
want to buy them as a top six team in
the East.
Speaker 2: I was gonna ask you if you've adjusted your priors.
I think I have my answer. I have not adjusted
my priors. They're gonna win, but this is this is
a great start. They can win forty games, I think,
and maybe maybe a couple more the and maybe you
who know's in the East, maybe that is top six.
But I don't feel very differently about them than I
did before any games were played.
Speaker 1: I think the are the Bulls for real? Question needs
to be are the Bulls going to be an above
five hundred team this season?
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I just said they might win forty two,
So answer.
Speaker 1: I thought you said forty and I was gonna say
that is less than five months.
Speaker 2: It's the range realistically is thirty eight, Like, is it
forty What if I said forty four? What if I
said forty three and a half is the over under?
Would you go over that?
Speaker 1: No? I would take the under. I was not gonna
take forty you said at forty one and a half,
I'm still gonna take the under.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, Yeah, we're we're we're about where we
were on them.
Speaker 1: Well, although we're all this in, Kobe White hasn't played.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's he's a good player. He's maybe
his return offsets. Everybody's shooting fifty percent from the field.
Speaker 1: Uh, Since since we're just asking questions, can I ask
you a question?
Speaker 2: I'd love it.
Speaker 1: What's more likely Nicola Vucevic gets traded or extended?
Speaker 2: Oh my god, extend him. You gotta keep this, you
gotta keep the gang together.
Speaker 1: Oh man, our next team? Are they our last team?
I think they might be our last team. They will
break up the Milwaukee Bucks, not because Giannis wants out,
but because they won't stop winning basketball games, grant including
against our teams. WTF, right, UT's start there. I was
gonna say, you could make the argument to trade Giannis
because clearly they're better built to beat the Western Conference
teams without him, that's all.
Speaker 2: Say, that's pretty obvious. He's been incredible. It just kind
of everybody's talking about like, oh, he's different, the passing
is different. This I guess like he's just he's just
as great as ever basically to me. And maybe you
know it's been conspicuous or it seemed conspicuous because going
into this season it was just like, what is this
supporting cast? Just a bunch of minimums a bunch, But
like watching it play out, there's some logic to it, right,
every they can put lineups on the floor where everybody
is a threat from three and they're not a threat
to do a whole lot else with one exception, which
we have to talk about. But if you surround Yannis
with four guys that must be attended to just call
it Turner, Trent, Torrian Prince and I'll just say his
name because we have to Ryan Rawlins. That's a pretty
good setup just in theory, right, like you have to
shade the honest because he's just murdering everybody going downhill
and if guys make enough threes, then there's your offense.
I guess maybe do you feel like we undervalued, like
the names don't knock your socks off, but just the
skill sets of the guys that they put around him,
did we not give enough credit to just like the
build makes sense in terms of like the types of players,
if not the names.
Speaker 1: I guess maybe, And there was. They were one of
the most efficient three point shooting teams last year, but
we all kind of had questions about their volume there.
I don't know. I mean, I liked Ryan Rollins last year.
We talked about him a cup, but did you see
him coming in and being their second leading score facilitating
the crap out of off drives. He's shooting fifty three
percent on drive, shooting well from three. They got Cole
Anthony and he's been quite He's shooting seventy two percent
on drives. Grant that that's just I don't know, that's
it's I they're better. They're clearly more equipped there. They're
more capable than a lot of people were giving them
credit for. But I don't we didn't come in talking
about them that they're gonna be tenth in the East
or something. And I've tried to focus on the Yannis
workload and his usage when he's on the court, But
I've also kind of wondered, Okay, maybe he will will
he peter out at some point, But he's also playing
thirty two plus minutes game. That's not an astronomical number
right now. Are they deeper than maybe we gave him
credit for? Might be the question here. I don't know,
Like I still don't know what the ceiling of this
team is. I've seen a lot of people get into
the Rollins might be a star. They could be the
best or second best team in the East. I can't
get there. The Ryan Rowins stuff, especially, we knew what
he could do on offense, although I didn't expect him
to make life hell on Jalen Brunton and Steph Curry
back to back games essentially. I just the offense from
him has been huge, And I don't when you watch
him do you get the sense that he is doing
anything the efficiency Maybe some of the volume will come down,
But do you watch him and think none of that
he's doing it's not. He's out there hitting the step
back off the dribble triples with eighteen seconds left on
the shot clock.
Speaker 2: My yeah, No. I having watched him now and by
the way, like he was on the Warriors, a few
years ago, and I was just like, this guy's not anything.
So what he's done in that amount of time to
become this player, which I think he's. I think he's
for real. I think, like I don't know about this
All Star stuff, but like he is a true plus
defender at the guard that has enough length to guard
ones or two's. I do think you just put him
on the opponent's main ball handler in the back court
and he's going to be very good there. Offensively, I've
just shocked, Like he has so much craft. He has
the two foot plant stuff, the step throughs, he can
step back, he can hit leaners. He's long around the
basket so he can finish, and he goes with either hand.
He's a three level scorer, like he really is. He
showed it all against Golden State last night. He really
truly now five games in, who knows, Like, you know,
when you become an actual priority for the opposing defenses scouting,
things can change, right, There are bound to be things
that defenses can force him to do that he doesn't
want to do. But that said, he's never going to
be the first priority as long as the honest is
out there, having a true point guard that can pass, dribbleshoot, defend.
He he's I mean, Miles Turners more established, but you
could argue that he's the second best. He's been the
second best player on the rights this year. He might
be going forward. I think he's a legit plus starter
today right now, I don't know what the ceiling is,
but uh, I don't. I don't think it's fake. I
really don't think we're gonna be looking back in January
and saying, hey, remember remember the heater Ryan Rollins was on.
What happened? Like, I really do think he's gonna be
just a major value add and he does make me
rethink being pretty low on the bucks, like I can't
even remember if I went over under, but they felt
like a you know, a forty two ish, you know,
win team to me. I think if he's gonna be
something like this, you gotta you and Yanna stays healthy.
Obviously that's the thing you might have to think about
bumping them up. Now that said, they're not on Cleveland
or New York's level, Like, let's not let's stop that conversation.
I think until we see a lot more. Do you
agree with that or are you kind of buying into like, well,
they did beat the Knicks and and maybe they belong
up there as maybe they're the third best team in
the East. Can you can you get that far? I
don't know If I can't.
Speaker 1: No, I think I might be ready to pencil them
in his top six to where, because right now, who
do you eat? I know they haven't had the cleanest starts,
but New York and Cleveland you expect to get there
and your trust meeter kind of runs out after that.
So I mean, if you were to make who's the
third seed? I thought I was gonna be higher on
Orlando to start the season. Same and I'm just not
the same thing with Detroit. I thought it was gonna
be a little bit higher on them. I'm not.
Speaker 2: Atlanta hasn't looked good. And Trey Jung's got the knee.
We don't actually as we're recording this, have have any
reports yet, but he's gonna miss time. We know that.
So like the usual suspects you'd throw in that number
three position. They don't look as they don't look like
we thought they would.
Speaker 1: To be fair, then we might have to buy it
as are the Bucks for real? Because well, actually I
think the question here is a lot of the stuff
over the pre offseason excuse. He came down to what
is this team supposed to do? And Giannis isn't on
the court? Yeah, and Miles Turner, who has not had
the strongest offensive start to the season, shooting forty percent
on threes without Giannis on the court, shooting like sixty
percent on two's or something. The Bucks are winning the
minutes that Yiannis is off the floor so far, and
the minutes with Ryan Rollins and Miles Turner, I believe
without Giannis have been pretty good if you believe the
Buck By the way, we're on agreement, Kevin Porter Junior
shouldn't see the starting lineup once he comes.
Speaker 2: Back, right, absolutely not Like Rollins is the guy that
you like the what do they do without Giannis? He'said, well,
Rowlins can run some pick and rolls and maybe that's enough.
Like Porter Junior is not going to do that consistently,
not well enough, and he's not going to defend anywhere
near as well as Rowlins does. So yeah, you this
is a it's his job, Like you cannot remove him
from the starting lineup. That would be insane.
Speaker 1: So I think if they if if you believe, and
so I'm actively asking you that this team is better
equipped to log it's without Yannis. I'm not saying entire games.
If you extrapolate that sample size then will be issues.
Do you buy that they can survive without Yannis on
the court.
Speaker 2: In spurts? Yeah, like I but it just as good
as I think Rawlins has looked. He and Miles Turner
cannot be the basis him plus Miles Turner plus three
shooters can is not good enough to approach that third
best team in the East level. Like I think you
can expect to win those minutes sometimes, but you're gonna lose.
Like it's not a it's not like a I'm not sure.
I'm not sure like how enthused we can get based
on the sample just yet, but like it's better than
either of us imagined it would be the non Yannis stuff, right,
Like that's that's fair to say already, Right.
Speaker 1: So I think I I still feel like if they
want to be second or third in the East, I
have to be y honest, ends up missing five games
total or something about the season is played at this level?
What is I think a more interesting question? Who do
you buy more into as a threat. And you could
just say, well, the difference is Yiannis, but the Bucks
are the heat. Who do you think is more real
based off their start?
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I don't get to say the difference is Yiannis,
the argument gets a little harder. Man, I guess I
guess I'd buy the Bucks.
Speaker 1: More just some of the numbers since yeah, that some
of the numbers are screaming at me. Not too when
you look at what some of the players are doing
with Giannis off the court. So the Kyle Kuzin was
seventy percent on two is with how Yanna's on the floor.
I mean, maybe that does make sense because they're a
little redundant there Cole Anthony shooting the lights like from
inside the arc. But also you could argue, well, something
like Cole Anthony will probably shoot better from three this year,
and just seeing aj Green go off from three, that's
not really any sort of a Miles Turner overall should
shoot better from three, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Bobby Portis, we haven't even mentioned him.
He's had some big nights Like there's I mean Torrian
Prince's what do you shoot like almost forty four percent
from three last year, Like it's Trent, like those guys
are gonna make you know they can't be left like that.
That's just it's funny. Like we spent so much time
lauding the Heat for this unconventional approach. I think we
both believe in it less than Milwaukee's extremely conventional offensive construction, right, Like,
it's just it's cool to be innovative. But superstars surrounded
by shooters and secondary creators is just like got it
makes sense? That works. We know that works.
Speaker 1: The what I was gonna We haven't talked about the
defense a lot, and so they are. When coming into
this season, I thought they were gonna be a better
defensive team than offensive team. When you were looking at
and ironically Ryan Rollins, Miles Turner, Johannis having those guys
made me think, yeah, that just makes a ton of sense,
and we have offensive questions now. To this point, the
both have been fine, but the defense is eleven versus
sixth for the offense. I absolutely buy the idea that
Milwaukee can be a top ten, eleven or twelve defense.
It's not They're not getting super lucky on opponent shooting.
They have just between Giannis and Miles Turner, like enough
guys who are gonna be able to make plays around
the rim. They've done a better job on a lot
of like than in seasons pass Like, oh, this is
a team that can actually get back in transition. That's
that's like a pretty that's like pretty big for them.
So I think that is something I just I guess
when I look at the Bucks, I'm trying to figure out,
like do I just buy this is a it's not
even a top end team. But if you told me that, yeah,
they're gonna be the sixth or seventh best offensive team
in the league, then yeah, they're the third best team
in the East at worst. Probably I'm still struggling to
get there. But Ryan Roinds is making me rethink a
lot of things.
Speaker 2: He is the he's the wild card. He's he's the
one that's changed things for them. I agree, he's I mean,
he's the most improved player in the league right now,
right like I mean, it is the short short list conversation.
Speaker 1: We this isn't a novel concept. We need either a
actual definition of most improved player or two separate awards
to where it's just the guy that made the established
player who made the star leap for and then most
because it's Ryan Rowins because he was good last year,
but he's still working off a relatively low And what's
more impressive I guess the leap that and I'm not
picking one of these guys for most for player right now,
But what's more impressive the leap that Ryan Rowins has
made or the leap that Victim webber Yama has made
when he is working off the lower baseline. He's going,
to your point, though, he's going to be appearing on
MIP ballots if this gift God is absolutely for sure.
Speaker 2: If we had multiple awards, what would we talk about?
So we need fuzzy criteria. It's a feature, not a fair.
Speaker 1: Enough, fair enough. I lie, this was not our final team.
We have one more team, the Philadelphia seventy six ers. Grant.
I don't know what to make of them. I mean,
we can go ahead, you're gonna say.
Speaker 2: I was just gonna say. I think, to me, what's
more interesting about them is not is not the like,
how have they done this? They're they're undefeated. They haven't
really beaten anybody, unless because Orlando, we don't know they've
beaten Boston, Charlotte, Orlando, and Washington. Three of the four
wins were double digit comebacks, so like they could easily
be one in three.
Speaker 1: I mean minutes is ty averaging per game.
Speaker 2: That's the trillion. It's over forty right, forty three, that's right,
and edgecomb is is not that far behind forty point two.
Jesus Christ. I think, what's the place my brain keeps
going is what is MBAT in the way now? Like,
because you've got a theory of a team now that's
built on hyper athletic guards that should play fast and
be in space, but then you've got this twenty minute
a night former MVP that needs touches that can't really
help you on defense anymore, that slows the game down.
Like the the interplay between those two identities and we
haven't even had Paul George yet is I don't know.
It's just that's the most interesting discussion point to me
of like what is this team now? And later like
how how does this all work? Because I think the
guard stuff like I don't I don't know Max Maxi's
another guy that he's just gonna win most improved again
and then an Edgecombe has been spectacular. McCain hasn't played
yet either there's another guard to throw in there. You
see what I'm getting at. It's just like there's multiple
identities on this team and it's hard to square them.
Maybe we wouldn't even be having this conversation if they
hadn't played such a soft schedule and they were one
and three. But it's interesting because they've won on the
strength of their guards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, they have basically four guards out there
at once too, and I'm curious as to I'm sure
some minutes will be pulled back for VJ and MAXI
wants Paul George is healthy, but I'm curious to see
what that does to their rotation because they've been leaning
heavily on the guards, and look, it's work. They have
a one thirty two point four offensive rating with VJ
and MAXI on the court. I've been really impressed. We've
talked about him already, but the interplay or the dynamic
I should say, between VJ. Edgecomb and Tyree Maxie where
they just kind of know how to play off one another,
and I could deal with maybe fewer mid range looks
from VJ. Edgecombe, but he's also playing entirely within the
flow of the offense. Maxie is still not shooting well
from two or even finishing well at the rim, and
he's already an All NBA player this season if we
were to make those teams, the free throw like jump
for him has been absolutely massive. I mean, the raw
number is more than doubled, but even when you get
into the fouls that he's drawing on as an overall
share of his plays huge for this team. I don't
have a problem as much now if the Embiid that
we've kind of seen so far, and there's been flickers
and flashes, but he's even said he's not comfortable with
They've tried playing him in short purst. They've tried playing
him his regular rotation and then letting him sit a bunch.
I don't know what the answer is, but I actually
like the idea of kind of having the counter punch
for this team. And they're also when you see Tyre's
Maxin and VJ Edge come on the court together, there's
this perception that the team plays really fast all the time,
and they're not. And if you're not gonna do that,
I think you could use Joel. Embiid still is even
if he's setting screens and picking and popping. I don't
know if he's ever is he going to be. He's
not gonna be attacking off the dribble the same way.
Speaker 2: Ever.
Speaker 1: Again, I honestly don't know. We're so early into the
season that maybe he gets used to the minutes that
he's playing, or they he just gets healthier. We'll have
to see. I don't think he's out of place. I
think they need him to be a certain version of
Joelle Embiid if we want to buy into the six
Ers as a real I don't even want to say
a threat in the East, but as let's say, a
top six, top eight team in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2: I guess I get hung up on I think that's right.
And also to your point, they actually are about two
possessions per hundred faster with him beat on then off.
Ramples are small like that, but the numbers are what
they are. I guess I what I can't get past
is I think you're right that what would make the
most sense is you're getting the as you said, this
version of Embiid where he is like a pick and
pop threat that you throw out there for his twenty
minutes a night, or maybe it becomes more than that
I don't know if you I think if you want
him to play sixty plus games sort of probably can't
be more than that. It just it's you can't you
can't build anything really if the guy you're using for
a few minutes a night as a change of pace
is making what he's making. And that's just that's just
where they are. Like maybe we should, it's not. It's
not productive to get into the like how bad that
contract looks. But it just gets back to my original
point of like, the dynamics of this team are bizarre
because embiid is there, and because he's making what he's making,
and because the adjustment for him and for everybody involved
of going from central figure former MVP, everything orbits around
him are title chances hinge on how many games he plays.
Our whole fate is tied to him too. He's like
the fifth or sixth most important player on the roster
or something like that, which is like, how do you
navigate all that? Again, maybe maybe that's not a good problem.
It's a good problem that you've got these guards in
Edgecomb and even McCain last year that are good enough
to where you even have this other identity. But it
still is just a weird It's hard to get my
head around, like who are the Sixers based on, you know,
the the embiid of it versus this kind of new version.
Speaker 1: And honestly, I'm probably more concerned with what I guess
because Embiid stands he's not overlapping with any one mission
critical at his position. Sure it's and so with Paul George, Itch, Yeah,
this team could feels like they could use wings, and
I love Justin Edwards to see a true wing. He's
also not playing a ton of minutes for you would
think he, of all people, might be able to get
moresy at eleven and a half per game. I worry
about Paul George coming back in the sense of, okay, well,
what does he look like within this I think as
a complimentary offensive player, you probably if they're all hell,
do you trust him more than Embid? I don't know,
But when some of your best lineups or some of
your best punches have come, we're gonna have three guards
on the court. For guards on the court, he's more
out of play because you're always going to need the
big man, and so I'm curiously how they use him.
And then you mentioned Jared McCain. We even talked about
him because he hasn't played, but I guess I trust
him to fit into all this. But are they brazen
enough to say, yeah, VJ. Tyres and McCain are gonna
play together because VJ. Edge Comb is grant he's listed
at six to four, right, I would like I want
to recount, Yeah, me and and he fights defensively. We'll
see if it comes together. But you also have to ask, well,
is that set up sustainable? With them playing so small
all the time. They have a bottom ten defense right now,
and when you look at this team, that's honestly the
bigger question to me is they're the best three point
shooting team in the league, but they're also not taking
a ton of them relative to the league average. And
then I'm like, well, is Kelly Bridgejuni're gonna shoot like this?
How much do you trust VJ. Edge Comb moving forward?
There are questions about the offense, but can they be
better than this on defense? I don't know if you're
gonna play so small. Even if you say, hey, we're
not gonna play small, I don't know that you could
build me a lot that I'm gonna say, yeah, you
really threw a defensive fastball at the other.
Speaker 2: Right, because because their athletic guard like Maxi's not a
very good defender, and so like Edgecomb has a heavy
lift there, McCain has not been a good defender in
his tiny career sample. I don't think Embiid is necessarily
a positive defensive player anymore, just because of the mobility
and and like if you can't switch on to anybody,
so he limits the coverages you can use, and that
he's involved in. Who knows what Paul George is gonna
give you. I think you're right that the defensive side
is and it hasn't been that good so far, and
they haven't played anybody. It could get like really problematic,
and then the offense has, you know, an even heavier lift.
Speaker 1: I will say, I just wonder if by virtue of
Joelle Embiid being so massive, is he still at least
a deterrent to some extent.
Speaker 2: But he can't get off the floor and he can't
move though.
Speaker 1: I just don't know this is the caveat that just
look at the teams that they have played. But teams
are getting to the rim eight point three percent at
like lower when he's on. That was a terrible way
to phrase it. But eight point three percent fewer of
their shots are coming at the rim when he's on
the floor, and that's in line with what he did
last season, and like again, a diminished capacity because he
didn't play in a ton of games. But I'm with
you in the sense I'm worried because of the way
that he's moving, can't jump. The mobility is just not there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's an it's an eye test analysis,
like and we should defer to the numbers. The numbers
are what they are. He is reducing rimtem frequency, but
like I just yeah, I it's hard for me to
imagine he can be helpful.
Speaker 1: Well, does it help them at all? Where if their
offense is going to be good to great? And where
do they even rank on the offensive end of the
floor right now? I didn't even have that there, So
they're second. That's pretty good if that, If that's just
what they are, does your defense get set enough to
where it's that's how you insulate Joelle embiid a little bit.
I don't know that's a fair thing to question out.
I don't know what to make it. As team. I'm Ultimately,
I don't know how to frame the question of are
they real? Do you think let's take this in two layers.
Do you think that they have the ability to be
a top five offense? Are you buying that?
Speaker 2: I gotta say no, just because it's propped up by
unsustainable shooting at this point, and like Maxi and Edgecomb
can't be this good, you know full time? I think
the offense is is is gonna be good? Top five?
Is that's a little too good? What do you think?
Speaker 1: Do you? I think I'm probably with you. And the
thing that I would also throw into there is even
if they Edgecomb's gonna hit a rookie wall, we always
see it. But I'm the minutes that Tyrese Maxi's locking
specifically would concern me. Those havey you have to figure
ot a way to pull those back. Maybe you should
get healthier. The second of three questions, do they have
the ability to be better than I'm gonna say nineteenth
in defense this year?
Speaker 2: I mean maybe like George, I'll say, yeah, George isn't
what he was, but he's got length and he's smart
and will be better than you know. He'll help. He'll
help more than like some of their three and four
guard looks might and maybe a den Bona really is
going to be you just block every shot and that'll
be another way for them to be decent. I don't
know if they're better than they can't be Top ten
like right, or even top fifteen feels feels out of
the question.
Speaker 1: I think even if embiid was'm beaid he would be,
he would need to be available for sixty five games
and play thirty minutes for that probably to happen. Okay,
so are they a potential top six team in the East? Yeah,
your name? Uh, I'll start.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say I can pretty skeptical. I think. I
think what's again, what's most interesting is like the things
I'm considering when trying to answer that question are not
the things I was considering before the season started, right,
because it was just like how many games in be
gonna play? How many minutes? That there's your answer, and
now it's just like that doesn't really have anything to
do with it?
Speaker 1: Is it? It's a good It's an objectively good thing,
though that we have to think of it. We were
able to think of it in those broader terms of
it's not about how often is Joelle Bid playing. It's oh,
what is the ceiling of this team of VJ Edgecomb
and Tyres Maxi being your two most valuable players?
Speaker 2: Well, yes and no, because if it was the original
set of factors, which is just how many games does
Embid play? That presupposes that he was going to be
like an All Star or an All NBA level player,
you might still rather have that than Okay, we got
this guy that can play twenty minutes and I don't know.
It cuts both ways for me.
Speaker 1: It adds You're right, it adds to the confusion of
their outlook, which makes them more fascinating. Probably, Yeah, we
have some quick hitters. You want to take us through them?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, Dan, let's start with the New York Knicks.
And I can't remember what my quick hitter was going
to be. I was hoping it would get up on
the screen so that I could ask you.
Speaker 1: It's buy or sell them as a top ten defensive team.
Speaker 2: I'll start and then you can go, I'm selling Mitchell
Robinson hasn't played yet, but I struggle with the idea
of Cat. I think we got a factor in the
quad for Cat, but he's looked less mobile than ever
to me. So I'll sell them as a top ten defense.
Speaker 1: We'll say you I would probably. Yeah, I'm gonna sell
them as well, just because even if Mitchel Robinson comes back,
you sort of have to wonder, oh, how often is
he gonna play for the defense to be good. But
what I will what I am going to keep an
eye on while I'm not fully prepared to sell the
idea is now that you have mchal Bridges in a
better defensive. So Deuce McBride when he's around, and he
is back with the team now at the point of attack,
and then og and I ope mchal Bridges are behind him.
Even if you have Kat and Jalen Brunson on the floor,
there's a lot of different things you could do. With
all of that being said, even given that their offense
has underperformed relative to their defense with the amount of
wide open threes, they're missing the fact that they're learning
a new system. I ultimately think that I'm gonna believe
if you have to pick one, what's more likely a
top five offense or a top ten defense. I still
think that they'll get up there on offense before they
would on defense.
Speaker 2: Unscripted quick hitter. Are you higher or lower on the
knicks overall today than you were before the season started? Lower?
Speaker 1: And it has little to do with the offensive learning
curve and more just they're not as deep as people
were advertising. I think I sit the kool aid a
little bit on that. It's just Jordan Clarkson's erratic Gershon
YABOUSELI banged up right now, was not playing up to snuff.
The Mitchell Robinson have any game he would load manage
to start the season. And if Karnthe Towns is really
playing through a grade two quad strain, I would assume
he needs a misstime with like grade two that's not like,
that's not if you're.
Speaker 2: Playing through its grade two quad strain, maybe don't how
about that?
Speaker 1: And the backup playmaking of it all makes it and
it comes back a lot. It's not fully on Towns,
but a lot of it does come back to karl
Anthy Towns. For me is it feels like we're dealing
with and I probably fell victim to this a little
bit too. Another team, despite a decades of evidence to
the contrary, believing that Karl Anthony Towns is something other
than he is, which is a generational talent who is
not always going to play like it. And even the
things that he does best, like when he's driving and
scoring through contact, he's not playmaking for others out of
live ribbles. He can get tunnel vision in the post.
The defense you've now, you've not decided because you've been
willing to go by force because your front court has
been so banged up. But you think that you're gonna
need to play do a big a lot to insulate
him defensively. That's that's a problem. So I'm I'm lower,
but I'm more hopeful. A lot of people have been
dooms Day with their start. I just think, Wow, they're
playing materially different compared to last season, and so I
And one of the bigger differences is too Kat will
have to get healthier, but on balance, the entire team
will hit more of their wide open threes. Is just
sort of where I'm at with them. Grant buy or
sell another offense. Defensive one the Trailblazers is the top
ten defense this year.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm gonna buy it. This was now they're
just barely there for the moment. I think they're ninth
in cleaning the glass this was always the way that
the were gonna be good, right, Like, I think, like
just between you add holiday to a team that already
has Timanti Kamara, Mattis Seibol's back, Like, I don't know
what he is bottom line as a defender, but he
definitely deflects a lot of basketballs and that's valuable to
a defense. Clinging, I think was always someone that his
chief value was gonna be defensively. Uh, they they're gonna
be defined by their defense. Their offense we have questions
about and I would say, like this is aligning with
our priors pretty pretty closely, or at least with mine. Anyway,
what do you think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess it maybe be more interesting. Are they
a league average offense? They are playing so fast right
now Jeremy Grant off the bench is apparently a cheat
code for them. I think, I don't know. When you
watch them defend, though, they have to have maybe like
they have to have the highest pickup point in the NBA.
They're number one, and they're forcing turnovers on twenty two
percent of their possessions. I think when you look at
the personnel, even when they and they've had minutes at
this where it's Oh, there's not like an actual center
on the court. They're just built like Blake Wesley just
being in his Have you watched Blake Wesley dribble uncomfortable?
It's uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: It's also uncomfortable to dribble against Blake Wesley because he
picks them up the second you touch the ball in
the back court. That's his right job now.
Speaker 1: So they just they have those guys. He looks like
when he's bringing the ball up the court and he's
not trying to speed demon it. You remember those skippet
things when we were growing up. It looks like he's
wearing one of those and trying to come up the floor.
It's very it's very uncomfortable. I think top ten is
a high bar, but what are what's the point of
not overreacting to the start of the season. I'm gonna
I would sell them having a league average offense quite
friendly even if drew Jeremy Grant not gonna score like
this forever drew out. It looks like he might have
more gas in the tank than a lot of people expected.
I'll buy the top ten defense though they're they're a
fun team. We have one more I'll.
Speaker 2: Give you I remember it. You're gonna buy or sell
the Utah Jazz as a top five offense, which is
what they are right now with the Did you see
the nickname for the front court? I think Mark Stein
or maybe Jake Fisher on the steinline put it out there.
Speaker 1: No, I didn't. What was it?
Speaker 2: Trace, Chase r Kalle Philipowski, Lauri Markin, and Walker Kessler
solid nicknaming.
Speaker 1: I think if those if you could play three seven
footers for like thirty minutes a game, I'll continue, and
they're gonna play that the way that they do right now.
I'm gonna buy it. The thing that I can't buy, well,
I don't know if I can't buy it, but like
Kante George looking like a point guard all of a sudden,
has excellent chemistry with basically every single one of Utah's
big men. I want to buy it. But the reason
I'm gonna sell it is because I have to believe
that they're gonna pull back at some point despite what
Austin Age said. And even if they don't, I don't
know if Kante George is gonna shoot and pass the
swell on his drives. Larry market In I think is
proving a lot of people they were concerned about him
and the way he performed last year, and he's been
playing fantastic right now, I have to sell top five
is just insane in Saturday, So I'm gonna have to
sell it.
Speaker 2: You've also we've got Ace Bailey up on the on
the graphic, I think one way to make sure you're
not a top five offense. As as the season goes on,
he's getting more minutes that would have gone to market
In or Philipowski, which is probably what you should do
to develop him. But he's not going to be nearly
as efficient or provide the volume as an offensive player.
Maybe the volume, but he's gonna knock your offense down,
and that's not a bad thing.
Speaker 1: I also wonder just giving Shie Mikail Luke the kind
of agency and license he has on offense. I understand it,
but I kind of feel like that might also work
in service of pulling your offense back to.
Speaker 2: Not have him as the starting shooting guard. Very often
in my preseason predictions for the Jazz.
Speaker 1: But there could you you would buy into them, just
though they might be more fun to watch than anyone.
Speaker 2: Yeah, now I could get I could get there. George
has a lot to do with that because he was
just such a such an empty calorie, like just bad
decision factory last season, and just just him developing kind
of puts all the other pieces in better position to
succeed in the offense to look like this is so
far it's been much more than a functional offense, but
it could be a functional offense all year.
Speaker 1: This is do you think, let's say, let's fast forward
fifteen games, they're still in the top let's even say
the top ten or something, let's say top seven of offense?
Is this Are they going to be steering out of them?
Does Isaiah Collier coming back from the hamstring issue? Does
that help or hurt them? I know he's their best passer,
but there's real limitations there.
Speaker 2: It'll hurt because he's not going to score like Georgia's
right now. If he starts eating into Georgie's minutes, it's
like a negative by default. Yeah, I mean if they're Yeah,
if we get to like the fifteen to twenty game
mark and this is a top ten offense, then that's
when it's just not to pick on him, like it's
not for some Cody Williams minutes get him out.
Speaker 1: There the other thing, and I am were you surprised
you did got to mention this that as Bailey is
not playing more to start the game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I thought he.
Speaker 1: Was going to get what VJ. Edgecomb is doing right now.
I thought he was going to get that type of volume.
Speaker 2: That's his rookie of the Rookie of the Year case,
right is like they got no reason not to just
give him maximum touches. He'll struggle, the offense will be bad.
He'll have good counting stats that that hasn't happened yet.
And maybe this is a let's showcase the Makay looks
and whoever else is of the world, and maybe we
can trade him for something before we really steer into it.
But I mean, you have to Bailey has to be
a bigger part of this team, like by mid season
at the absolute latest.
Speaker 1: He just has to now the final thing to buy
or sell he shooting? What does he shooting six of
eight from three point range this year? Does Walker Kessler
belong in a three point competition?
Speaker 2: H for it's an entertainment product, is it not. I
think I think that's the definite.
Speaker 1: Yes, I will say, the way he's kind of played
is making me wonder what was the extension number that
would have locked him down and should they have pounced
on it. I know the cap hold stuff and the
cap the them prioritizing cap space, but I don't view them
as a team that's gonna want to fast track this.
Maybe maybe I'm wrong with They've been fun, They've played
some just really like the game against Phoenix was just
super fun. It was super nerve wracking and I had
no rooting interest. Super fun. You have anything else for us?
Are you ready to take us out of here?
Speaker 2: I'm ready to take us out of here. Hot starts
by us as well. I buy those good great starts
of the season. Excellent content being produced. As always, everybody,
please rate, review, subscribe, spread the word, tell your friends,
tell your enemies. Join our discord links for that in
the YouTube podcast description, and let us know in the
comments which hot starts you believe in that we don't
and which you don't believe in that we do. And
then also let us know how many threes you think
Walker Kessler will hit on the season and why it's
what's the over under fifty? Is he gonna hit fifty threes.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take ah, I'm gonna take the over. We're
gonna get your point where they might. Yeah, I'm going
over to We're taking you more fun.
Speaker 2: Shouts Pregnant Temopolitics chair Amount