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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Tuesday. It's time for Total Bases,

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your one stop MLB free pick show right here on

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the wager Talk YouTube channel. Brian Leonard, the weather gods

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have graced us with more day baseball today. We had

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a doubleheader. Yesterday. We got the early game in and

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then it was like a monsoon in Chicago. I saw

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some of the images of the rain that wiped out

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that second game. So they're gonna try again today, which

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means we get day baseball on a Tuesday, which is fantastic,

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and it's a really good matchup. You know, the Brewers

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got it done yesterday. I don't think the Cubs are

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playing for the Nlcentral at this point, but they're about

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to be in a dog fight in that wild card race.

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So a huge games for Chicago and a doubleheader set

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up again. Have you looked at the weather? Are we

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getting these games in? And do you have an opinion?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: According to the part factors here at the site I use,

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it looks like they're going to be the lowest percentage

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of runs scored today compared to normal, They're going to

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be twelve percent less, which is why you're seeing totals

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of seven seven and a half as opposed to like

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target field is plus twelve percent more than normal a

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normal team in Colorado obviously plus twenty four percent. Normally

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you find you know, you find the Mets stadium down there,

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Texas Stadium. But yeah, regular field looks like when they'll

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be blown in a little bit and runs will be

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hard to come by. But they weren't hard to come

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by yesterday for the Brewers, who continue to just amaze

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the baseball world. Two games today, the first ones at

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eleven a m that will be Pacific Patrick going against Boyd.

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Patrick has been pretty good. They've I've gotten the Brewers

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are probably the most depth going back to the minors

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for starting pitching. They've done everything, and even the guys,

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the older guys that they brought up have done really well.

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Boyd is basically about a one about a one forty

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favorite right now, seven and a half to the under.

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I don't want to lay one forty with Boyd. I

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talked about this in the past last two years. In

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twenty twenty three, he threw seventy one innings. Last year

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because of injury, thirty nine innings. He's already up to

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one hundred and forty two. If you've seen the way

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he has pitched lately, he hasn't had that same success.

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He comes in with a two point four to six

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CRA but is expected as three point two six. It's

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lasted a long time this season without having any of

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that regression. I think it starts to come now. It's

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been coming the last few starts. Whip one point two.

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He still throws at four seamer forty six percent of

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the time, slightly over league average for a lefty. We

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throw a lot of fastballs. Eventually you're going to get hit,

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and I do have some concerns about him here Milwaukee.

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On the other hand, if I can get my mouse

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to work here Milwaukee, as I said, going with Patrick

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on the mound, Chad Practricke has jcent numbers this year.

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He comes in with a three point five to two

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in his rookie season, expected four point one two with

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one point three zero. Nothing really stands out from his

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Savant page. His ground bow rate is in the fifth percentile,

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which is bad, but with the wind blowing in and regularly,

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I think some of those balls will stay in the

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park and that'll help him. Part hit rate twenty fourth

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percentile extension twenty fourth percentile. It's clear that the Cubs

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have the better pitcher, but I think it's clear that

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the Brewers have the better hinting if you take a

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look at the Major League leader board in WRC plus yesterday,

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Toronto is number one, Milwaukee number two. Now Milwaukee's number one,

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Toronto's number two. Cubs are dead last. Pittsburgh passed them

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up a little bit yesterday, so it Coubs got to

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seventy one WRC plus over the last fourteen days, whereas

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Milwaukee's won forty three. They're hitting more than twice as well.

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So if I'm going to play this, I would find

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a way to play Milwaukee like Boyd overall, But yeah,

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he's not pitching the same and he's getting a little

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bit of a tired arm, and that's the problem the

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Cubs are going to have. They've got a lot of

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these guys that are getting up there in the innings.

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And before the show, Brandon was talking about as teams

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go deeper into the season, if you've already gotten your

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playoff position, sort of like the Phillies, Dodgers, some of

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those teams, you're going to take the innings load off

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of a lot of your starters, So this is the

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time of year where they may have a starter goal,

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but he may only go four innings or so. To

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keep that in mind when you're looking at the bullpens

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in these games, you'll see more bullpen time for a

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lot of these teams that have already been or look

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like they're going to be in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: It is five dollars Tuesday, everyone, so we're gonna have

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all of us will have a five dollars play up.

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Speaker 5: I already have mine.

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Speaker 4: It's in Major League Baseball with a free play loaded

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on my page, and we all will have a free

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play as well.

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Speaker 5: So you see that scroller down there.

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Speaker 4: Our pages are there at wager talk, So grab our

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free play at least and take a look at what

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we got for five dollars. We won our parlay yesterday

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and I went four and oh in MLB yesterday, So

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pretty good day all around. And I'm going to go

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against the grain here. There's two things that I really

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like about Boyd here. His numbers against Milwaukee in his

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career really good. A two twenty six average against in

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the six forty five ohps against, and that's in fifty

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three at bats against. And also boy's a really good

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home pitcher. He's got a one seven to five e

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RA at home in sixty seven innings. So I think

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I think today's the day that the Brewers finally get stopped.

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I don't think he'll hold them to zero, but I

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think he can control them to two runs or so.

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And the Cubs, I think they're going to break out

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a little bit. I mean, if you call three runs

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a breakout, I don't have the testicular fortitude to take

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the Cubs on the money line. However, I think the

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Brewers team total under If you can get a four

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and a half, that would be great, But I think

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even first five innings under one and a half might

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be a decent play. If you can get two and

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a half, that would be even better. I haven't played

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it yet, and I haven't seen the numbers yet, but

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if I'm going to play it, that's the way I

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would go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I am in agreement with you, Tokyo Brandon. I

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like the Cubs here a lot lately. Adam not bad thing. Hey,

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I mean, it's not even a good night last night,

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So I'm I'm glad When we were on the same

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side in in some of these. So Trevor says, Brewers

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plus twenty well plus one twenty five is extremely it

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is incredibly disrespectful because I'm gonna miss the playoffs. That

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statement is fine. I don't really disagree with that statement.

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I don't know if the Cubs have missed the plaoffs,

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but they're certainly in a battle. They're gonna They're gonna

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be in a dogfight, and it's gotten even closer after

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yesterday with the Reds winning winning last night. But I'm

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hoping that the market has that same thought process. I'm

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hoping that as this the day goes on. So this

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is an early game that people just kind of grab

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that price with the Brewers because I really do like

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the Cubs in the spot, and you know, I'm not

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I don't want to discount what Brian said about Boyd

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because I do think there's there's it's something to watch, though,

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I mean, I haven't really seen like a reason to

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fade him yet. Like he's pretty good last time out,

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they they I think he gave up the homer in

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like the seventh inning to the Blue Jays, which is like, okay,

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he held the blue Jays basically scoreless for six, and

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I think he gave up the home run in the

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seventh in like a two to one game. But Boyd's

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been solid. I don't mind him, and I wouldn't mind

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backing him here. You know, the wind blowing in could

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help Patrick, but there's not many people taking Matthew Boyd

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deep either. I think he's only given up like ten

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or eleven homers on the season, so I don't think

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he's gonna get bombed here, And if anything, it's easier

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to string hits together off Chad Patrick. Like I've watched

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a ton of Chad Patrick, mostly at the minor league level.

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He's been you know, he's he's been I think at

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the at Triple A since twenty twenty three, was there

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almost all year last year. He's been there a lot

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of this year, and I kind of feel like I

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have him pegged at this point in terms of like

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what he's gonna be. He's consistent. I feel like they're

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gonna look at him as someone that they can trust

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as like a fifth starter if needed, if they don't

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have a better option. I don't think he's shutting big

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league lineups down, but he's probably not gonna get killed either.

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You know, his stuff is. I just consider him like

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a pretty average major league starter, fifth starter. It feels

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like you almost get the same effort from him. Every time.

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It's gonna be five innings, he's probably gonna give up

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a run or two, and you're just gonna go from there. Now,

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where I think the from there is in this game

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is the fact that the Cubs need this so badly

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that they're gonna be so much much more willing to

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like burn out in game one of the doubleheader than

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the Brewers will. And I did think that when the

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Brewers lost the game, which was Sunday, that you might

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see them play like five hundred ball for the next

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week or so. They just had that fourteen game win streak.

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It wouldn't surprise me if they play, you know, they're

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more of a five hundred team for like a week

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or two, because they've I feel like they've done enough

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at this point, and I think they're gonna feel like

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they've done enough too, And maybe you see him play

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like five hundred ball, which is fine for them. They

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have an eight game, nine game lead in the division.

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So this is not a scenario where I'm really looking

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to get involved with the Cubs like across a double header,

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but I really do think that there's an edge in

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game one. And if the market's going to drive this

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down a little bit more, let's say I can get

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at some point Cubs minus one twenty five under minus

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one thirty, I may have to play that. So TV,

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I'm with you here. I kind of like the Cubs.

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No opinion for me in Game two?

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Speaker 3: Go ahead, Bryan, I just want to touch on the Cubs.

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I'm making the playoffs. The MLB side on ESPN now

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has the percentage of the teams making the playoffs, and

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they've got the Cubs at ninety six point seven. The

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Cubs are playing lousey, but the teams behind them are

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the Mets, the Reds, and the Padres, and they've got

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a five game laid over the Reds right now. So

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it's going to take a little bit. And in fact,

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you know, we go back. We talked about the Yankees earlier.

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Yankees are not playing well, but they still got a

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nine to two point nine percent chance to make the

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playoffs because other than the Red Sox are a lot

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of the teams in the that league are not playing well.

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Seattle's we've talked about this coming into the show, I

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may have to deal with some pitching injuries. So yeah,

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even though some of these teams are not playing well,

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they'll probably still make the playoffs because you're either a

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have or have not this season, unfortunately, there's too many

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have nots in Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 1: The Cubs go to Cincinnati for four games in like

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mid September. That should be a hopefully it's on the

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line there, that would be a good series. All right.

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Speaker 4: I want to talk on paper, they're really talented. It's

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amazing that they can't hit right now.

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Speaker 5: Amazing.

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Speaker 1: All right. I want to move on to this game.

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I was on the Mariners last night. That was a

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loss and a couple of things. So Colin wants to

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talk about Bryce Miller. He's going to be tonight's starter.

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And I can certainly speak on Miller. I bet him

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in his most recent game at Triple A, so I've

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got some opinions there. But I want to point out,

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because it was talking about like Gilbert home roads and stuff,

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I truly believe Logan Gilbert is injured and I think

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you'll see him go on the IL very soon. And

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that is not just because I lost with them. Last night,

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I felt like I was watching someone that was clearly

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hurt try to like sort of fight through it. And

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I'm only bringing that up because I'm interested if he

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like does it for one more start, because it's like,

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none of these guys want to take themselves out of

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a pennant race of the game if they feel like

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they can work through it. But Jordan Alexander, who's a

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friend of mine, who's a good follow on Twitter and

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really follows that division closely, was saying he's got the

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same injury as Cole, the one that Garrett Cole had

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that we saw him really struggle at times last year.

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Probably going to require surgery in the offseason. So that's

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worth monitoring in my opinion, because that was not like

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it was his worst start of the season. He had nothing,

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but it was like very apparent to me that he

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couldn't locate anything and it looked like he was injured,

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to my opinion. So something to watch with Logan Gilbert.

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That was, of course last night's game. The Phillies blew

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it open and the Mariners they tried at the end,

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they think they got four back, but it ended up

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being a twelve seven final. Now we move on to tonight,

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and that's what the chat wants to talk about. I

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see a lot of chatter here for this game. Kind

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of a similar assignment for the Mariners, Brian Leonard. It's

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another lefty. They didn't handle Suarez very well last night.

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And now it's Christopher Santis who's arguably, well not arguably,

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I think he is the better one. I think we'd

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all probably agree on that. And it's Bryce Miller for Seattle,

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who did kind of look good in his most recent

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rehab start and I think he's probably ready. So Mariners, Phillies,

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how are you seeing this one? Mariners kind of needed

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to do something here. They're starting to struggle a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, when I looked at the card today and I

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already have my five dollars play up and I have

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a free playoff already. This is one of the games

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I was interested in Bryce Miller coming back from Andreie.

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But if if you've read the quotes from Miller, it

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was an elbow an elbow situation. He says he feels

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better now than he's felled all season long. Its strength

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is he thinks he can go long. He does throw

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seven pitches, so even if his fastball isn't working well,

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he can use his others. His tackcast page looks terrible

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this year, and he has been terrible, but he has

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gone through a lot of injuries. Keep in mind last

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year he had a two point nine four ERA zero

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point nine to eight whip. Now he's a young guy.

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It's only in three seasons, but I think he will

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be more like that than he has been this year.

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And to get a Seattle team in this price range

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is to me, it's a little bit of a bargain,

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especially when you take a look at Munio's brash spire

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and bizarreo. None of them have pitched in the last

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three days, so they could go, you know, five innings

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of Miller here and then use those guys to finish

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off the game single wonderful pitching it inning. That's a

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pretty good pitching lineup for Seattle here. And obviously Philadelphia

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is playing really good ball right now. Christopher Sanchez has

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been great. His stetcast page is virtually all read here.

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Two point four to five ERA, three point oh three expected,

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so little little, a little negative regression coming his way,

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one point nine whip, but he's very good. But he

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only throws three pitches, the sinker, slider, and the change,

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So it's easier to guess, and a lot of these

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players do guess, and if they know guy's only got

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three pitches as opposed to seven, it's easier to figure

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it out. But Sanchez, for what he's got, he's just

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been tremendous this year. And I fully understand why people

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would want to play Philadelphia. You got a guy who's

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probably in the top five and say young votes, and

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you got Philadelphia. Team's playing really well right now. But

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my thought process is, if these two teams will meet

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in the playoffs right now on a neutral maybe Philadelphia

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is a If the beach teams is played in the

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same amount of games, maybe Philadelphia overall is maybe a

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one twenty one, twenty five favorite. And I'm seeing upwards

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if you go into some of the you know, the

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pandol the fanatics, draft Kings, those kinds of things, they're

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in the one seventy five range here, and I just

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don't understand it. You could catch Seattle right now, it

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like one sixty one sixty one on the comeback. That's

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enough to get me involved. I'll be involved with Seattle

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some way on this game. Whether it be maybe a

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team total or just as the underdog, because, like I said,

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all those guys, the best guys in the bullpen are

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going to be available to hear. This is a live dog.

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Speaker 2: If you ask me, TV, I think you're muted. We

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can't hear you.

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Speaker 5: You can't hear me. How about now?

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Speaker 4: Okay, So Brian has a playout already. That's amazing. I

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think that's a first. So he's got his five dollars playout.

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I've got mine out, Adam, Do you have yours out yet?

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Speaker 1: I don't. I would probably use it for Korean Baseball

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and that which goes in the morning.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so we're all going to have a five dollars

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00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:24,200
play up, and we're all going to have a free

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00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,519
play up for sure if we don't already.

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Speaker 5: So go to our pages and check those out.

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Speaker 1: Guys.

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Speaker 5: We had a great day yesterday.

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Speaker 4: We almost everything we said to bet went our way

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except a couple small ones.

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Speaker 5: So let's keep it going.

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Speaker 4: Regarding this game, I'm kind of gonna go against Brian,

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not exactly against, but you know, Sanche's just pitching so

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well right now, and that Philly bullpen just pitching really

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well right now.

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Speaker 5: I don't really trust the Philly bats right now.

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Speaker 4: They're a little bit cold, and Seattle I got them

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ranked really mediocres. So when I see mediocre bats going

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against a really good bullpen and a really good starting pitcher,

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that just makes me want to go to the team

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total under three and a half. Under, though, is really

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hard in Major League Baseball. It's hard to bet, especially

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when you got the number one home run king on

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the team next to Suarez, who hit a home run

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the other day and is starting to heat up since

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he got traded. But that would be the only way

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I would go. But because that's the only way I

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would go, I'm probably not going to play this game.

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Neither pitcher has a really good history against the batters

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he's facing, so can't really read that very much. The

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one thing about Miller he hasn't He hasn't pitched for

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two months, and uh he's got a one to five

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plus whip, So that kind of scares me about Seattle.

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Speaker 1: If you are on my all access service and you've

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been following along the Triple A plays, we bet on

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Bryce last week they were on the road at Vegas.

359
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Was a really good price. I don't think the books

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got the Sometimes the books with these Triple A like

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rehab starts, they just kind of throw like a very

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generic price out there, because a lot of times a

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rehab start for Triple A could be like two three innings.

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It's not always like a full thing. So the books

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kind of like don't want to, you know, throw it.

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They don't want to like inflate it too much because

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then like they'll get action on the other side if

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you know they're only going to go a couple innings.

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I felt like Miller last week was gonna get the

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full rub and he did, uh, and he actually didn't

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want to come out, like he was at seventy six

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pitches in the sixth and he was just you could

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tell he kind of was like, let me finish the inning.

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You know, they they are obviously going to say no

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to that. Triple A is not about really wins and

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losses to them. Like they they had him seventy five

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to eighty pitches. They took him out, but he was

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fantastic five and two thirds, four strikeouts, one walk. Think

379
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,960
he gave up like one run in three rehabs starts

380
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at Triple A, one for nine batting average game in

381
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a zero point seventy five win, totally dominant. He's he's

382
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more than ready to pitch here. Now. Yeah, it's the

383
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Phillies lineup in Citizens Bank Park is going to be

384
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much different than facing a PCL team. But I don't

385
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think that should discount how well he threw the ball

386
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over three starts at Triple A for his rehab. And

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then Brian comes in with the quote that he feels great. Well,

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he looked like he felt great because everything, I mean,

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it looked like I was watching Bryce Miller that had

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all the upside that, you know. I felt like I

391
00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:35,240
was watching the Bryce Miller that everyone expected him to

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be prior to the injuries. So I really would only

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go back with the Mariners here at this price. Brian

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already did a great job of laying out how insane

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this price is. I kind of wanted Mariners plus one

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00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,640
and a half. It's minus one forty. Maybe goes in

397
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the parlay. I'm gonna think about that as we do

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the show. If that came down ten cents, I might

399
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,759
have another client play on the Mariners. They just saw

400
00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,839
Lefty last night, so you got to think that maybe

401
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,359
helps them out a little bit. And then as Brian said,

402
00:21:03,519 --> 00:21:06,039
they they have all of the good bullpen arms are

403
00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:09,440
available here. And even when even with the loss yesterday,

404
00:21:10,039 --> 00:21:12,079
I you know, I feel like the Mariners are good

405
00:21:12,079 --> 00:21:14,599
for a couple homers in this ballpark whenever they play here.

406
00:21:14,799 --> 00:21:17,720
Like even with the them trailing yesterday, cole Jung went deep.

407
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,440
They tacked on a couple more at the end that

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00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,920
game was dead in the water. Gilbert was hurt. In

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my opinion, he was hurt, and they gave He gave

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up six runs in the second inning, so the Mariners

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never really got off the mat. I think you see

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00:21:29,039 --> 00:21:32,079
a much better effort. You know what, why haven't mess around.

413
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,319
Let's throw that in the parlay. What's what's Mariners plus

414
00:21:34,319 --> 00:21:36,319
one and a half right now? Minus one forty?

415
00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:39,039
Speaker 3: I believe that's what I saw a second ago. Let

416
00:21:39,039 --> 00:21:44,839
me just check it one more time. More of a one? Yeah,

417
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:49,559
about one? I would say, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, we'll take that. That's fine. That way I get

419
00:21:52,519 --> 00:21:55,279
something on it. I don't know if I don't know

420
00:21:55,319 --> 00:21:57,880
if we'll see the Phillies take any more money. But

421
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like again, if that some the Phillies are weird. Though

422
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,160
even yesterday they took money throughout the day, and I

423
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,400
didn't think they would the Phillies at home. They they're

424
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,119
always inflated and they almost always take money. So if

425
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that creeps down to like minus one thirty minus one

426
00:22:13,319 --> 00:22:15,519
twenty five territory, I may have to add it as

427
00:22:15,559 --> 00:22:17,839
a client play. But for now, it's going to be

428
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a first leg of our parlay. So Mariners plus one

429
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,279
and a half to kick off the parlor, go ahead, Brian.

430
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say the Philadelphia team total under four

431
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,240
and a half. It looks pretty good to make because

432
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,079
I think the Seattle pitching staff has in pretty good

433
00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:29,720
shape in this game.

434
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: I don't think they've used a top bullpen arm in days.

435
00:22:33,599 --> 00:22:37,839
Speaker 3: I don't think, like move none in the last three days.

436
00:22:38,559 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they're so there. I guess I don't understand

437
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,960
this question, like why not why not back Sanchez? Well,

438
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,440
I don't know why I would want to at this price,

439
00:22:50,519 --> 00:22:52,480
Like I feel like we answered that question. It's a

440
00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:55,400
it's a in my opinion, especially after they just saw Suarez,

441
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,400
they just saw a lefty. I feel like it's a

442
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,880
crazy price to back Sanchez in this game. So yeah,

443
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that would be the answer to that question in my opinion.

444
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,160
All Right, let's go to the chat, all right, we

445
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,759
have a shocker chat wants to talk Tigers Astros, aave

446
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,640
cash and he took some Astros. I think Colin must

447
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,079
have took some Astros too. We got a great convo

448
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,119
going on in the chat, which we love. We love

449
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,920
the bantering the chat, We love it in the comments

450
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,319
on the replay. So don't forget that. If you're missing

451
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,319
this lib or you didn't see the whole show. The

452
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,720
replays on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, and if you

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00:23:29,759 --> 00:23:32,400
have a second, give us a like a subscribe, maybe

454
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,720
even drop a comment. The chatter is going about Astros

455
00:23:36,759 --> 00:23:40,680
Tigers Tigers was an easy win yesterday Tokyo Brandon threw

456
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,440
it in the parlay. Clearly someone knew something because that

457
00:23:44,559 --> 00:23:47,000
number moved about sixty cents like while we were on

458
00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:49,240
the show, fifty or sixty cents while we were on

459
00:23:49,279 --> 00:23:52,960
the show, and that was a cake walk for the Tigers,

460
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,559
even with their guy on the mount. Today, Brian Leonard

461
00:23:55,559 --> 00:23:58,119
doesn't look like it's going to be as easy today

462
00:23:58,319 --> 00:24:01,319
because the Astros have Hunter Brown and passive Pitcher in

463
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,519
their own respect. So Tiger's Asters, how do you see

464
00:24:03,559 --> 00:24:04,079
in this one?

465
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Scooble has taken a step back the last few starts.

466
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,640
You knew it was gonna happen. Obviously, he can't be

467
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,000
as good as he's been all season long. Every every

468
00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:20,319
great pitcher as a couple they'd like to throw back

469
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,119
at the end of the season. But he's currently about

470
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:29,440
about a one sixty eight favorite here against Brown, total

471
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,079
of seven in the game. You'd expect a lower scoring game.

472
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,319
Here's a good pitcher's ballpark, and you've got two great

473
00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:38,119
pitchers going under Brown two point four five ERA three

474
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,680
point zero five expected one zero zero on his whip.

475
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,920
Everything on his on his Taccas page is positive. His

476
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:51,640
worst category as walks fifty eighth percenta, which is still

477
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,279
better in the league average. He throws six pitches, including

478
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,359
his four singer forty percent of the time he throws

479
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,119
that at ninety six point eight. Very impressive. Terry Scrubel

480
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,920
obviously the Cy Young winner, and he'll be the Cy

481
00:25:07,039 --> 00:25:09,680
Young winner again this year as long as he doesn't

482
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,799
get hurt. Two point four to two ERA two point

483
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,799
six eight expected zero point eight seven whip, that's the deal.

484
00:25:16,839 --> 00:25:20,400
The guy doesn't walk many players. Last two years there

485
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,599
was four point five percent, walks four point six percent.

486
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,640
Now it's four percent. That's what makes him so great.

487
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,880
He doesn't give up any free passes. His ground ball

488
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,319
rates a little bit lacking in the forty fifth percent

489
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,920
al but once again, he pitches in a very good

490
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,039
pitcher park here, so he doesn't give up the home runs.

491
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,319
Two guys that you really would expect to have a

492
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,920
good game. The total of seven, basically seven across the

493
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,880
board is pretty good. But as I said, you know,

494
00:25:50,079 --> 00:25:51,839
both of them had a little bit of hiccups in

495
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:53,759
the last month that they hadn't had in the past.

496
00:25:54,200 --> 00:26:00,519
Maybe the amount of innings is becoming a little high.

497
00:26:00,839 --> 00:26:05,799
Keep in mind, Scooball in twenty twenty three because Mandrei

498
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,039
only threw eighty last year one ninety two. He's at

499
00:26:08,079 --> 00:26:10,680
one fifty two, so he's still should be in pretty

500
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,640
good shape with that. Brown went from one fifty five

501
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,759
to one seventy right now is at one forty three,

502
00:26:16,839 --> 00:26:20,400
so I'm not too concerned about that. Like both these teams,

503
00:26:20,519 --> 00:26:24,240
both these pitchers, and we think it's a low scoring game.

504
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,799
I lean with the under here. I don't go under

505
00:26:27,839 --> 00:26:32,079
seven very often, but if you do like to play

506
00:26:32,079 --> 00:26:34,079
the under. You got two of the best pictures in

507
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,559
baseball playing in one of the best pictures parks in baseball.

508
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,680
The under seems to make a lot of sense to me.

509
00:26:42,039 --> 00:26:44,599
Speaker 4: Yeah, just a quick announcement, guys, I'm not doing my

510
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:49,480
Saturday show anymore because college football starting and who wants

511
00:26:49,519 --> 00:26:52,279
to watch some guy in glasses talk about baseball when

512
00:26:52,319 --> 00:26:53,319
there's college football on?

513
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 5: Right? So yeah, that show.

514
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 4: I'll I'll redo it again next week or sorry, next season.

515
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,440
But as of now, yeah, Saturdays, I'm pretty sure I

516
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,000
won't get much of an audience doing that Saturday show,

517
00:27:07,079 --> 00:27:11,119
so I have canceled. Not canceled it, I have stopped

518
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,319
it for the rest of this season next season. Regarding

519
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,759
this game, I'm in line with Brian under I think

520
00:27:17,799 --> 00:27:19,920
would be the only way to go. I'm going to

521
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,279
do it in a different way, though, and I'll tell

522
00:27:22,279 --> 00:27:25,680
you why. I like the first five innings under three

523
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,880
and a half. And the reason why is because both

524
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,200
of these pictures. Here's where I have them ranked out

525
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,519
of two hundred and twenty starting pitchers. I got Scooble

526
00:27:34,599 --> 00:27:37,920
ranked number three and Hunter Brown ranked number eleven right now,

527
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,559
so those are top two, top eleven elite pictures. They

528
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,960
both have great numbers against the batters they're facing with

529
00:27:47,319 --> 00:27:50,400
decent sample size. Hunter Brown seventy seven aut bats against,

530
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:55,279
two eight average against five sixty eight ops against. Excellent numbers.

531
00:27:55,759 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 5: Scoobole.

532
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,079
Speaker 4: As Brian mentioned, he's struggled in a couple of starts,

533
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,559
but his numbers against these Astro batters to eighteen average

534
00:28:03,599 --> 00:28:06,799
against six sixty seven ops against. And that's with seventy

535
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:10,359
eight at bats, so good sample size. Let's take a

536
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,880
look at the lineups. I have both of these lineups

537
00:28:13,039 --> 00:28:16,599
ranked seventeen or worse in current form. I got the

538
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:21,119
Tigers ranked eighteen and I've got the Astros ranked twenty five.

539
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,839
So all of that comes together to say, do I trust.

540
00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 5: The bullpens or not? Not really, Astros bullpen's not performing

541
00:28:29,519 --> 00:28:31,480
well and Detroit's bullpen is just.

542
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 4: Toiling in mediocrity. So I would rather throw the bullpens

543
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:35,960
out and.

544
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:36,759
Speaker 5: Just do a first five.

545
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 4: If you could alt this four and a half under,

546
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,440
I was able to do that, but I don't see

547
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,960
it available anymore. So I think under four is like

548
00:28:46,039 --> 00:28:48,960
minus one eighty. That's a little rich. So just take

549
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,640
the under three and a half and make a small

550
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,960
play on that. That's what I'm That's what I'm gonna

551
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,319
do on this one, and I actually will make that

552
00:28:56,839 --> 00:28:59,759
not my parlay play, but it is a client play

553
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:01,680
small percent.

554
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:08,359
Speaker 1: One my friends at Just Baseball. I've become buddies with

555
00:29:08,359 --> 00:29:10,200
the Just Baseball guys, So if you're not following them,

556
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,960
they do. They pump out awesome baseball content. They're a

557
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:17,359
great follow on Twitter, and they posted the American League

558
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,240
Pennant odds yesterday from MGM. And when I saw the

559
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,839
Tigers favorite, I just about fell out of my chair

560
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,400
because it's like, that's not them saying they like the Tigers,

561
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,559
that's Vegas. Basically, the Vegas is making the Tigers the

562
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,759
favorite in the American League right now, are going into

563
00:29:33,799 --> 00:29:36,440
play yesterday, which I imagine after a ten to nothing win,

564
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,799
it's probably still the same to win the American League. Now,

565
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,640
I'll point out that it's very close. You're looking at

566
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,920
Tigers or like plus three fifty, then you got the

567
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,839
J's plus three seventy five, Mariners four to one, Astros

568
00:29:48,839 --> 00:29:50,960
five to one, Yankees five to one, so there is

569
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,440
a little bit of a log jam. But it was, like,

570
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,599
you know, it was interesting to me that and I

571
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,000
checked this at other books, and I'm seeing Tigers. You know,

572
00:29:59,039 --> 00:30:01,960
the books think that the Tigers are the favorite in

573
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,680
the American League now, even though I have kind of said,

574
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,920
you know, I don't agree with where they're priced in

575
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,119
the market or where they were priced in the market.

576
00:30:10,359 --> 00:30:12,640
They haven't had the best month. So it's like, I

577
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,519
do feel like the odds have come back just a

578
00:30:14,559 --> 00:30:17,519
little bit. Yesterday, As I said, I missed it, I

579
00:30:17,519 --> 00:30:20,359
mean Tiger's. I'm kicking myself that it wasn't on my

580
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,359
card because like before I even had a chance to

581
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,480
blink in the morning, it moved fifty cents, so I

582
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,240
couldn't really come back and play it at a bad number,

583
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,279
but they won easily. What I'm kind of looking for

584
00:30:31,359 --> 00:30:34,920
here is to see if the Astros take money, because

585
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,119
I think you're going to see the crowd that you're

586
00:30:38,119 --> 00:30:40,640
going to see, like the Astros can't pass them up

587
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,920
at like plus one fifty crowd plus one forty five crowd.

588
00:30:44,319 --> 00:30:46,759
If they drove this down into like Tiger's minus one

589
00:30:46,839 --> 00:30:49,480
forty with Scooble, I think you'd have to really look

590
00:30:49,519 --> 00:30:51,920
at that Schooble at home. You get him better than

591
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,119
a dollar fifty. I don't really know that he's I mean,

592
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,920
you know, using the word struggled is probably a little

593
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,880
bit harsh. That Angels start wasn't very good, but like

594
00:31:02,079 --> 00:31:06,319
seven innings, three runs against the Twins against you know,

595
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,400
on the road in Philly. He gives up three runs,

596
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,880
but he goes seven and strikes out ten, Like, I

597
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,119
don't know, that's harsh, Like that's not really struggling in

598
00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:15,440
my opinion, that's just being a little bit human. So

599
00:31:15,519 --> 00:31:19,240
it's like if I could get schooble at even something

600
00:31:19,279 --> 00:31:22,480
that's remotely playable on his home field here, and someone

601
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:25,799
in the chat makes a good comment, I do think

602
00:31:25,839 --> 00:31:28,599
he like relishes this spot a little bit. This is

603
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,440
national TV. It's a big opponent. It's much different than

604
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,960
playing the Angels, in my opinion, like in the spot

605
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,279
that he played him last time, it's gonna they're gonna

606
00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:39,799
kind of get pumped up for this, like it's a

607
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:42,119
big game. So I would I would lean toward the

608
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,160
Tigers here. I don't think I'll end up playing this

609
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,759
one because I don't think I'm gonna get the value.

610
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,200
But if they take, if the Ashers take some money,

611
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:50,759
I gotta look at the Tigers. Go ahead, Bryan.

612
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,079
Speaker 3: The reason why the Tigers are the favorites because they

613
00:31:54,119 --> 00:31:55,519
have an eight and a half game lead in the

614
00:31:55,559 --> 00:31:58,319
Division I as opposed to one and a half for

615
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,880
Houston and five for Toronto. I know they assume Tigers

616
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,359
are going to have home advantage, and they're very good

617
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,119
at home forty and twenty four on the season. I

618
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,599
would from a number standpoint, I would make them the

619
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,519
favorite also. But as for who I think would win,

620
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,400
I think it's a foss up. And in reality, all

621
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,240
these teams have some things they do well, some things

622
00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:28,039
they don't do well, and anything can happen out of

623
00:32:28,079 --> 00:32:30,480
the American League would not surprise me if any of

624
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,880
the teams in the playoffs or to win it all

625
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:37,799
nationally is a little bit more wide open, where you've

626
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:39,640
got three or four teams that are very good, and

627
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,920
some other teams are going to make the playoffs that

628
00:32:42,039 --> 00:32:45,200
really are going to be long shots.

629
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,559
Speaker 1: Right. I'm curious, are you so I listed off all

630
00:32:48,599 --> 00:32:51,559
those teams. The next team down is the Red Sox

631
00:32:51,559 --> 00:32:54,519
at like plus eight fifty. Would that like interest you?

632
00:32:54,559 --> 00:32:56,240
I feel like that kind of interests me from a

633
00:32:56,279 --> 00:32:59,039
future standpoint if you're looking at that group, because I

634
00:32:59,079 --> 00:33:02,359
agree with you, Who's who do you love in that group? Right? Like,

635
00:33:02,359 --> 00:33:04,599
wouldn't you rather just have Red Sox plus eight fifty?

636
00:33:04,599 --> 00:33:06,000
At this point, they're.

637
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 3: They're todd same record as the Yankees are. Right now,

638
00:33:09,839 --> 00:33:12,240
there's more value on them than there is on the Yankees.

639
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: If you ask man, Yeah, now, interesting stuff, good conversation.

640
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,319
We will. Let let's move it on. That'll be a

641
00:33:21,359 --> 00:33:24,440
good one to watch. That's that's TBS National TV for

642
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:26,440
us here in the States. That'll that'll be a good watch.

643
00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:30,359
Google versus Brown Tigers Verstachers could be a preview of

644
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:35,240
that opening playoff weekend where you get the three game series. Yeah,

645
00:33:35,279 --> 00:33:38,720
for sure, this this, this has the chance to be

646
00:33:38,759 --> 00:33:41,160
a good pitching game. But then again, these teams go

647
00:33:41,279 --> 00:33:43,440
off the rails all the time. I never know. So

648
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:48,119
it's like A's twins. Theoretically, you've got Joe Ryan, who's

649
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,680
an ace, and you've got Jacob Lopez who's been very

650
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:56,480
He's an intriguing guy. I think he has potential. This

651
00:33:56,519 --> 00:33:59,319
one's in target field, so I guess it's you know,

652
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,319
sets up that for pitching that it would say if

653
00:34:01,319 --> 00:34:04,480
you were at Sutter Heelth Park. So two good pitchers here,

654
00:34:04,519 --> 00:34:07,240
Brian Leonard as twins, are you getting involved at all here?

655
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,559
Speaker 3: Yeah? You mentioned target field. The wind will be blowing

656
00:34:10,559 --> 00:34:14,360
out here. It's expected to have twelve percent more runs

657
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:19,039
than a normal baseball game. And we're looking at the

658
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:27,840
total here. I can find it on the car Jesus. Yeah,

659
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,280
we're looking at game nine sixty nine. The totals eight

660
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,960
and a half, which it kind of opened eight is

661
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,440
going up a little bit. I can see that. I

662
00:34:38,519 --> 00:34:42,880
like both these pitchers. Obviously, Lopez against Ryan Ryan is

663
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:47,400
about a one about one forty favorite total eight and

664
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:54,679
a half. I'm it's interesting to me what Minnesota is

665
00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:57,800
going to do with Joe Ryan the rest of the year.

666
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,039
They're not going to be in the play poffs. They

667
00:35:01,159 --> 00:35:04,760
tried to trade him, they couldn't get enough back. Boston

668
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,079
really wanted them, a lot of teams wanted him. He's

669
00:35:07,119 --> 00:35:10,519
a really good pitcher, he's healthy now. But will they

670
00:35:10,639 --> 00:35:15,400
just try? If I'm in management at Minnesota, it's clear

671
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,719
they clear that they don't try to win as often

672
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,320
as some of the other teams do. The management's very

673
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,639
cheap there. They said they were going to put the

674
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,719
team up for sale, and then all of a sudden

675
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,119
they pulled the rug and now they're not not for sale.

676
00:35:28,159 --> 00:35:31,000
So all the fans were upset because they thought they

677
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,119
were going to get a real owner in there. Now

678
00:35:33,119 --> 00:35:39,079
they're not. I could see Joe Ryan, they really cut

679
00:35:39,119 --> 00:35:41,760
back on his inningist this season goes on and look

680
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,639
more towards next year. Lopez because he came up later.

681
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:50,639
He doesn't have that situation going. He's a lefty and

682
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,960
I really like him. When he's been good. It hasn't

683
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:59,199
been really anybody They can count on him the way

684
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:03,639
he has been this season, been very consistent, and you know,

685
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,639
the Minnesota bats, they just have not gotten it going

686
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:10,000
all season long, and when the starters go out. You know,

687
00:36:10,039 --> 00:36:12,440
I'm not a huge fan of the A's since they

688
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,679
raised bullpen, since they traded away you know, their best

689
00:36:15,679 --> 00:36:20,000
picture Miller, but they're a better bullpen than what Minnesota is.

690
00:36:20,039 --> 00:36:23,719
The Minnesota traded away. They're four best relievers. So to

691
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,760
get Oakland in this price range, I think it's a

692
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,280
little bit of a bargain. You can get upwards of

693
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,000
one to twenty four twenty five out there right now

694
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,880
with the A's I think the situation calls for the

695
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,960
A's a little bit here, and yeah, I think there's

696
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,239
some value. I actually like a few underdogs on today's card,

697
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,239
and this is one of them. So I'm gonna be

698
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,719
uh looking to find a way to play the A's

699
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,320
A's or or maybe a Minnesota team total under which

700
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,880
would also be something we can look at. Let me

701
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,440
take a quick look at that. Yeah, you can get

702
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,440
the You can get the Minnesota team total under four

703
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,719
and a half right now at minus one thirty. That

704
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,920
that's a pretty good bet. I like that also.

705
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,039
Speaker 4: Exactly as exactly the same train of thought as Brian here,

706
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:18,599
Jacob Lopez underrated pitcher, and Joe Ryan. I don't want

707
00:37:18,639 --> 00:37:21,480
to say he's overrated, because he's a really good picture,

708
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,960
but the books, I.

709
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 5: Think the books give him a little too much too.

710
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,840
I think they give him better lines than he deserves.

711
00:37:31,599 --> 00:37:33,880
He's a good picture, though, make no doubt about it.

712
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,119
But when I run my numbers, man, I love the

713
00:37:37,159 --> 00:37:40,760
A's in this matchup, well it's I just do. I

714
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,000
mean I got I got their batting rink fifth, I

715
00:37:43,039 --> 00:37:45,719
got the Twins ranked twenty fifth, I got the A's

716
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,880
bullpen ranked sixth and the Twins bullpen ranked eighteen uh

717
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,400
and starting pitching, I got Jacob Lopez ranked higher than

718
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,239
Joe Ryan. Now, maybe that's seems a little crazy or wacky,

719
00:37:58,559 --> 00:38:01,599
and maybe he's not as good as my numbers like him,

720
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:05,599
because man, Joe Ryan is a very good and consistent pitcher.

721
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,840
But Joe Ryan is backed by a very bad bullpen

722
00:38:11,159 --> 00:38:13,519
that lost a lot of pieces of the trade deadline

723
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:17,960
and a lineup that's not producing. So even if Joe

724
00:38:18,039 --> 00:38:22,480
Ryan can hold this powerpacked lineup down to one or

725
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,559
two runs in the first five innings, you know, Katie

726
00:38:25,599 --> 00:38:27,800
bar the door for the for the for the last

727
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,760
four innings. I like Oakland here too, And actually I

728
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,639
made a play Minnesota under four and a half team

729
00:38:34,679 --> 00:38:38,800
total as a client play before the show. So Brian

730
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,159
and I are exactly on the same on the same wave.

731
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: Brian, what was the weather again? Did you say the

732
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,960
winds blowing out in this game and that there could

733
00:38:49,199 --> 00:38:52,159
be what was your what was that sort of weather

734
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:53,440
line you said.

735
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on the site I'm on has the wind

736
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:02,599
blowing out and it's plus twelve percent more runs than

737
00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:07,760
an average game. So but this is not one of

738
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:12,000
the greatest home run hitting parks. So a lot of

739
00:39:12,039 --> 00:39:15,840
times when the wind blows out, you have to take

740
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,159
an account what park you're playing in. Because in San Francisco,

741
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,400
the wind blows out every day at ten miles an

742
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,800
hour or more. Basically and by far, they're the worst

743
00:39:25,079 --> 00:39:29,119
home run hitting park in baseball. So a lot of

744
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:30,920
you have to take a lot of things into account.

745
00:39:31,159 --> 00:39:33,079
But I don't think this is going to be much

746
00:39:33,079 --> 00:39:34,199
of a high scoring game either.

747
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,159
Speaker 1: See that's the wind. And and that's intriguing to me

748
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,960
because both of these pitchers are like extreme fly ball pitchers,

749
00:39:43,519 --> 00:39:46,360
especially Jacob Lopez Drake. Jacob Lopez is one of the

750
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,800
lowest ground ball rates in Major League Baseball. And Joe

751
00:39:50,039 --> 00:39:53,639
Joe Ryan. If if you watch Joe Ryan, I if

752
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,000
he gets he's gonna get beat by the home run.

753
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,639
It's like the only way he's getting beat, uh he

754
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:02,280
And it's it's pretty much a given. Like and especially

755
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,239
with this a's lineup, going back to something Tokyo Brandon said,

756
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,440
like you get this a's lineup against a righty, someone's

757
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,159
taken Joe Ryan deep at some point over the course

758
00:40:11,199 --> 00:40:13,480
of six seven innings. Now it doesn't that's not to

759
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,719
say he's gonna pitch poorly, but like you give Nick

760
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,119
Kurtz three cracks at him, or like a soda stirn

761
00:40:19,159 --> 00:40:21,440
three cracks at him, like someone's probably gonna get one

762
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,679
at some point. So I lean toward the over because

763
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,480
I do think that there might be a couple home

764
00:40:27,559 --> 00:40:30,000
runs in this game. But really the thing that I

765
00:40:30,559 --> 00:40:33,079
that's almost a bonus here because I think where you

766
00:40:33,119 --> 00:40:34,880
get the value on the A's and the value on

767
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,320
the over is the shit show that's going to occur

768
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,440
when both of these bullpens are in the game, which

769
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,480
are both just not good at this point. They've all

770
00:40:42,519 --> 00:40:44,440
traded away like the twins in the A's have both

771
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,519
traded away all of their top arms. So once Ryan

772
00:40:47,599 --> 00:40:50,440
is out, once Lopez is out, like TV was saying,

773
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,159
it's it could be a free for all. And I

774
00:40:52,159 --> 00:40:55,360
think that's gonna a get you runs and b makes

775
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,519
the A's a great play at the price because it

776
00:40:58,599 --> 00:41:00,880
could go crazy at the end of this TV were

777
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:02,159
you gonna follow up there? Sorry?

778
00:41:02,639 --> 00:41:03,039
Speaker 5: Yeah?

779
00:41:03,119 --> 00:41:05,159
Speaker 4: And if it turns into a shit show at the

780
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,280
end of the game, which lineup would you rather have?

781
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:14,119
Speaker 1: Oh, the A's for sure, exactly as for sure, Yeah, exactly. Yeah,

782
00:41:14,119 --> 00:41:16,880
this A's lineup is is something else like there. They

783
00:41:17,639 --> 00:41:19,880
they lack a little discipline at this point, which will

784
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,039
probably be ironed out from this year in the next year,

785
00:41:22,119 --> 00:41:25,320
but they don't. This A's team by the time they

786
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:29,440
get to Vegas, it's gonna be awesome. I mean, they're

787
00:41:30,159 --> 00:41:33,599
they're going to be they'll probably win that division the

788
00:41:33,639 --> 00:41:35,519
first year they're in Vegas. Like that. I think that's

789
00:41:35,599 --> 00:41:38,400
how good this team could potentially be if the ownership

790
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,440
doesn't ruin it. So yeah, I like the A's as well,

791
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,639
and I think there's gonna be runs in this one,

792
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,280
especially if there's a couple of long balls. That ball's

793
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:47,079
carrying a little bit.

794
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:49,039
Speaker 5: Yep.

795
00:41:50,159 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: Let's go to Danzo here, because I know Brian Lennard

796
00:41:52,519 --> 00:41:55,199
wanted to talk about this game for at some point,

797
00:41:55,199 --> 00:41:57,800
well at least I maybe I imagined him saying that,

798
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,440
but I think he wants to talk about it. Danzell says,

799
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,800
Rocky six and two and one run game since the

800
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,360
All Star Break, only the Brewers seven and two are better.

801
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:10,000
If you watched the show yesterday, we broke down Rockies,

802
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,639
Dodgers and all kind of couldn't believe that the Rockies

803
00:42:13,679 --> 00:42:17,840
were catching three runs on the spread. Turns out they

804
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,159
didn't need any of those runs. They won the game,

805
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,719
as Brian kind of pointed out, would be possible to do.

806
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,159
It was a bad spot for the Dodgers. So Brian,

807
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,280
how are you seeing this one? Dodgers Rockies? Does it

808
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:30,440
go the other way tonight?

809
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 3: Well, as I said before we started the show, I

810
00:42:34,679 --> 00:42:37,000
kind of thought, I think this is a good spot

811
00:42:37,039 --> 00:42:38,719
for the Dodgers to come back. But there's no way

812
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:42,119
I'm laying that line. It's upwards of you know, two

813
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,239
eighty five in some places, so I'm not going to

814
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:48,039
do that. But Austin Gomber is the guy that I

815
00:42:48,079 --> 00:42:50,440
think the Dodgers can really get to. Here. Are you

816
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,320
looking at a total of twelve? Maybe maybe something like

817
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,679
the Dodgers team total over let's see what that is

818
00:42:55,719 --> 00:43:01,400
actually foo seven and a half score, eight runs? Who

819
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,880
win that? I won't get involved with that, but she's

820
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:10,119
basically a one seventy five favorite here with a total

821
00:43:10,159 --> 00:43:15,199
of twelve. Emanchan's one of those guys that he's pitching

822
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:19,400
for his job and pitching first futures twenty five years old,

823
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,559
and if it was up to the Dodgers, he would

824
00:43:21,679 --> 00:43:24,280
never play in the majors because he's They keep bringing

825
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,639
in all these high, high priced free agents. But he's

826
00:43:27,679 --> 00:43:30,320
been decently good. Three point eight six CRA, three point

827
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:34,760
six point expected, one point two or three whip. Nothing

828
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:39,639
is outstanding on his stackcast pages only pitch thirty five innings.

829
00:43:40,119 --> 00:43:44,519
But he's one of the guys that normally he'll be

830
00:43:45,079 --> 00:43:46,800
a fourth or fifth starter. Those are those kind of

831
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,559
guys you normally get some value on. If you're going

832
00:43:49,599 --> 00:43:52,719
to play a Yankee or a mat or a Dodger,

833
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,960
you're not going to get any value in playing the races.

834
00:43:57,599 --> 00:44:01,760
Austin Gomber six point seven to nine the RA, five

835
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,000
point sixty six expected, one point sixty to one whip.

836
00:44:06,119 --> 00:44:09,960
Austin Gomber, what is this? August nineteenth. We talked about

837
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,760
Erlander earlier in the season. It took him a long

838
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,800
time to get a victory. Austin Gomber still has not

839
00:44:16,199 --> 00:44:19,920
gotten a victory on this season. The sick a look

840
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:21,880
at some of his and I hate to use it

841
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,239
as an example. And because he does pitching Colorado, she

842
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:28,079
gotta you gotta understand that. I don't think anybody in

843
00:44:28,079 --> 00:44:33,679
baseball's bad. I think there's levels of less good. He's

844
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,239
one of those, and it doesn't it doesn't health these

845
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:42,679
places in Colorado. But his barrel percentage first percentile, whip rate,

846
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:47,039
first percentile, strike out R eight, second percentile fastball velocity

847
00:44:47,119 --> 00:44:50,760
third expected the ra fifth, chas ERR eight fifth.

848
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 5: Uh.

849
00:44:52,039 --> 00:44:56,199
Speaker 3: He doesn't walk people, that's good. He's only walks in

850
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,719
the six percent range, which is two and a half

851
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:02,760
percent lower than the leg GA. But that's a good thing.

852
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,760
When you're pitching Colorado, the last thing you want to

853
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,079
do is walk people. So that's the one thing he

854
00:45:07,119 --> 00:45:10,360
does that's very good. But I think the Dodgers will

855
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,440
hit him. But I just I'm not going to play

856
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,519
over seven and a half runs. I don't care if

857
00:45:14,519 --> 00:45:17,719
I was out there pitching. I'm not playing anybody over

858
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,679
seven and a half runs. We've seen that with a

859
00:45:20,679 --> 00:45:22,400
lot of these pitchers coming or a lot of these

860
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,599
position players coming in and pitching better than the rest

861
00:45:26,679 --> 00:45:30,159
of the players. The other day, the catcher for the

862
00:45:30,159 --> 00:45:32,960
Guardians came in through a perfect inning, or they didn't

863
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:34,800
throw a perfect ending. He left the base loaded, we

864
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,320
didn't give up a run in the ninth inning, and

865
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,119
he was the only pitcher on the entire staff that

866
00:45:38,159 --> 00:45:40,840
didn't give up her run. So it happens, you know,

867
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,760
when the other team sees those guys come in, they

868
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,639
don't try as hard or want to get the game

869
00:45:46,679 --> 00:45:49,760
over with. But I like the Dodgers here, but I

870
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,199
can't lay this number, so I'll end up passing.

871
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:55,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, my numbers.

872
00:45:55,639 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 4: If you watched the show yesterday, guys, all three of

873
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,039
us said, watch out. These are the kind of games

874
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:05,519
that they're gonna lose. They came off a sweep of

875
00:46:05,559 --> 00:46:09,400
their bitter rival, well more bitter for San Diego than

876
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,960
the Dodgers. It's more like a little brother. They swept

877
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:16,480
their little brother. And then after getting swept by the Angels,

878
00:46:16,519 --> 00:46:21,000
they come back and sweep a playoff contending team, a

879
00:46:21,039 --> 00:46:25,159
division title contending team, and they were just due for

880
00:46:25,199 --> 00:46:27,800
a letdown. And I hate to use the word do

881
00:46:28,119 --> 00:46:31,159
because I never like to bet on it their due,

882
00:46:31,599 --> 00:46:34,679
but just a horrible spot. Like Marco likes to talk

883
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:39,360
about fat, fat and sassy, and that's how they were,

884
00:46:40,079 --> 00:46:43,440
you know, after sweeping the Padres. Padres are a damn

885
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,960
good team and they swept them, and then they come

886
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,119
into Colorado a game they're gonna win.

887
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, hey, you know it's the Rakis.

888
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 4: You know, Boom you lost, so that bullpen's terrible. But

889
00:46:56,039 --> 00:46:58,800
I think they bounce back today. And I like Shan Actually,

890
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:03,920
I know the sample size is small. Uh, and he's

891
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:09,039
not a proven commodity, but he's a lot better than

892
00:47:09,079 --> 00:47:09,800
Austin Gomber.

893
00:47:10,039 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 5: Brian makes a good point.

894
00:47:11,039 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 4: Gomber doesn't walk people, but she and doesn't walk people either.

895
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:22,159
If the Dodger bullpen can can be better than what

896
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,199
they actually are, I think the Dodgers win this one.

897
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,320
And I would be willing to lay minus one and

898
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,559
a half because you got a team total of seven, right,

899
00:47:30,679 --> 00:47:34,280
I mean you know, yes, the Colorado Rockies can hit.

900
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,639
And Adam that guy for Colorado that you were talking

901
00:47:37,639 --> 00:47:40,320
about yesterday, he smacked one over the fence yesterday that

902
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:41,280
the young guy did.

903
00:47:42,079 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 5: Yeah. Yeah, who names who names their kid that?

904
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 6: By the way, I hate to cut you off, but

905
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,159
there was somebody that went into the chat on the

906
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:59,320
replay and he explained why they named him, that it

907
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,840
was because of the names of his grandfathers on both

908
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,320
sides of the family, and he combined those and that's

909
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:06,480
how he got warming.

910
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:08,079
Speaker 5: Hmm.

911
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:09,159
Speaker 3: Interesting question.

912
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, it is good information. Uh I think the Dodgers

913
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,920
would be the only way to go here, but uh yeah,

914
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,119
it's a little steep, so I probably won't do it,

915
00:48:18,599 --> 00:48:19,880
but they should bounce back.

916
00:48:21,599 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 1: I mean it doesn't it's not as as it doesn't

917
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,800
matter as much when they're they're price this high. I've

918
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,719
got this line like almost a full dollar off, Like

919
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,400
I've got Dodgers like minus three p fifty here. Now

920
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,519
I know it's like some of the square books are

921
00:48:36,559 --> 00:48:39,079
probably starting to get into the two eighty five two

922
00:48:39,159 --> 00:48:41,800
ninety range. But this is why, like, especially with the

923
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:45,320
big favorites, you always should shop around, but especially with

924
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,920
the big big favorites like this, Like I see there's

925
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,480
there's still some two sixties out there with the Dodgers.

926
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,079
It's just you gotta look. It's you got to depend

927
00:48:53,119 --> 00:48:54,920
on what book. But I just did a quick scan

928
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:58,039
and I saw two sixty five out there at two

929
00:48:58,039 --> 00:49:01,079
different books. Uh, then you're you're already up to you know.

930
00:49:01,119 --> 00:49:03,880
Then I pulled up like MGM and some of the

931
00:49:04,079 --> 00:49:06,559
you know, the the legal apps, and it's like two

932
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,199
ninety already. Listen, if you can get two sixty on

933
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:13,079
the Dodgers, here. I wouldn't play it straight, but if

934
00:49:13,119 --> 00:49:15,920
you can find something to parlay it with, it's not

935
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:17,800
the worst thing in the world. I don't think they're

936
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,840
gonna lose again. And my personal number on this is

937
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,519
Dodgers minus three fifty. Now again I don't I'm not

938
00:49:24,559 --> 00:49:27,039
gonna play that because that's just not how I bet.

939
00:49:27,199 --> 00:49:28,920
But like, I guess what I'm trying to say is

940
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,079
I see a pretty sizable edge here, just if I'm

941
00:49:32,079 --> 00:49:35,559
just trying to pick a winner in this game. On

942
00:49:35,639 --> 00:49:37,800
the Dodgers, I would have expected them. And still I

943
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,519
think they'll probably go off in the three dollars range

944
00:49:40,599 --> 00:49:43,719
or maybe even more than that, because I would that's

945
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:45,599
where I would have expected it to be. So I'm

946
00:49:45,639 --> 00:49:47,559
not gonna really like go into like we don't need

947
00:49:47,559 --> 00:49:50,400
to break this one down anymore. Dodger's clear favorite as

948
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,960
far as the seven and a half, that's what my

949
00:49:53,079 --> 00:49:55,559
number is on the team total. So like, but again,

950
00:49:55,559 --> 00:49:58,599
I wouldn't they juiced it, which is even crazier. It's

951
00:49:58,639 --> 00:50:01,719
seven and a half like minus twenty five, which is insane.

952
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,079
Like maybe that's another one where you got to shop around,

953
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,599
but you could you could throw the Dodgers in a

954
00:50:07,599 --> 00:50:10,519
parlay or maybe like I don't know what the minus

955
00:50:10,559 --> 00:50:12,559
one is, Like TV likes the minus one if you

956
00:50:12,599 --> 00:50:14,639
can get you know, if you can get it under

957
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,480
two dollars. With Dodgers minus one, like there's a good

958
00:50:17,559 --> 00:50:19,920
chance to probably winning by more than a run. So yeah,

959
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:23,719
I like the Dodgers here, all right, let's move on.

960
00:50:24,679 --> 00:50:27,039
Colin Gregory says, play the day for him? Is blue

961
00:50:27,119 --> 00:50:31,159
Jay's money line minus one forty five? Kind of agree

962
00:50:31,199 --> 00:50:36,000
with that. This is a game that last night or yesterday,

963
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,639
we talked about this game yesterday, and I feel like

964
00:50:39,119 --> 00:50:41,719
this was one that we we sort of fleshed out

965
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:43,440
on the show and no one, no one ended up

966
00:50:43,559 --> 00:50:46,440
really having an opinion on and it kind of I

967
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,039
feel like it played out in the in the way

968
00:50:49,079 --> 00:50:51,519
that we all maybe thought even though no one had

969
00:50:51,559 --> 00:50:53,760
a strong opinion on it. Blue Jay's made a couple

970
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:56,639
of errors. They didn't they clearly didn't have like their

971
00:50:56,760 --> 00:51:00,440
a game, like they weren't like overly focused for that opinion,

972
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:03,119
which was always possible coming off the series. They played

973
00:51:03,119 --> 00:51:05,840
this weekend and the Pirates got to win five to two.

974
00:51:06,119 --> 00:51:08,679
So Colin saying he wants to come back here with

975
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:11,000
the Blue Jays that displayed the day. What do you think, Brian,

976
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:12,360
what do you think about the Blue Jays?

977
00:51:12,639 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 3: Well as for not being fully focused, they were going

978
00:51:16,079 --> 00:51:18,840
up against the best pitcher in the National League. I

979
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,760
can't buy that. You always want to show against the

980
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:22,920
best pitchers out there.

981
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,280
Speaker 1: No, I was more talking about the three airs that

982
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:26,679
were made.

983
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,039
Speaker 3: Oh gotcha, gotcha. Well, they're not the greatest defensive team,

984
00:51:30,119 --> 00:51:32,280
and that's probably one of the teams that's going to

985
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,960
struggle in that way. The entire You ask me, that

986
00:51:36,199 --> 00:51:42,840
entire East Division has some defensive problems. They go out

987
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:47,159
and they spend a lot of money on hitters, but

988
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,280
they don't pay a lot of attention to the defense,

989
00:51:49,679 --> 00:51:54,199
and a lot and most of the low salary teams

990
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,480
like the Tampa Bays, the Cleveland's, those kind of thing.

991
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,199
They've always been very good defensively in the Brewers. The

992
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,199
Brewers are there's not a thing out there that the

993
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:03,800
Brewers are not good at. They don't hit a lot

994
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,519
of home runs. Okay, well that's not their game. But

995
00:52:06,599 --> 00:52:09,480
they've got good bullpen and they've got good the good

996
00:52:10,079 --> 00:52:13,559
defensive players. So they're a good all around team. I

997
00:52:13,599 --> 00:52:16,559
talked about Matt Sears are pitching better than I thought.

998
00:52:16,599 --> 00:52:18,400
He comes in with a three point eight three ERA

999
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,599
three point nine to five expected one point zero seven win.

1000
00:52:22,639 --> 00:52:25,440
But keep in mind he's been battling injuries all year.

1001
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,920
He's been battling injuries for the last couple of years.

1002
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,559
He had twenty seven starts in twenty twenty three. He's

1003
00:52:31,559 --> 00:52:34,280
had total of the nineteen starts since. But he's been good.

1004
00:52:35,679 --> 00:52:38,119
His ground ball rate is in the first percentile, so

1005
00:52:38,159 --> 00:52:41,239
he does give up a lot of fly balls. That

1006
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:45,719
is always a concern, but Pittsburgh's more of a good

1007
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,639
pitcher's park, so I don't think he has to worry

1008
00:52:47,639 --> 00:52:50,079
too much about that. Barrel ray also in the eighth

1009
00:52:50,119 --> 00:52:55,800
percent of he has been hit hard. I like Toronto here,

1010
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:57,559
I don't know if I'm going to get there because

1011
00:52:57,639 --> 00:53:00,159
of the number. The numbers a little higher than what

1012
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,559
I would like. Mitch Keller still surprised he's still in Pittsburgh.

1013
00:53:04,599 --> 00:53:06,840
I really thought they would get rid of him at

1014
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:08,119
the end of the season. But he's got a long

1015
00:53:08,199 --> 00:53:10,920
term contract and he's pretty cheap, which would make some

1016
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,159
teams really want him. Comes in with a four point

1017
00:53:13,159 --> 00:53:16,559
one three ERA four point one four expected one point

1018
00:53:16,599 --> 00:53:20,679
twenty seven a whip. But the two things is really

1019
00:53:20,679 --> 00:53:24,119
good at is walk grate and barrel percentage. He only

1020
00:53:24,159 --> 00:53:27,840
walks six point five percent. League average is eight point four.

1021
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:31,039
He keeps you in the games, and that's something that

1022
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,000
has been working out. He's only won five games for

1023
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:38,360
the Pirates this year after going winning twenty four the

1024
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,320
last two years combined. Hasn't had the luck value in

1025
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:45,960
that regard, but neither has schemes because of that. So

1026
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:49,800
I think Toronto's the right side here, but it's about

1027
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,400
ten cents higher than what I would want it. It open

1028
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,880
one forty and now I'm actually seeing one point fifty

1029
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,360
at at the places that nobody I know can bet in,

1030
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:05,360
and that would be ESPN Draft kans and maybe fan fanatic.

1031
00:54:05,519 --> 00:54:08,760
So they're making me pay a little bit more on

1032
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:12,320
the favorite. That's what they get those places. If you're

1033
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,280
playing there, you're probably not very knowledgeable and you play

1034
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:19,360
a lot of favorites. So prefer Toronto. May take a

1035
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:22,000
look at it one way or another at a team

1036
00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:25,559
total something like that, but I prefer Toronto. But I'm

1037
00:54:25,559 --> 00:54:27,639
not gonna lay a one forty five or whatever on

1038
00:54:27,679 --> 00:54:28,480
the road here.

1039
00:54:31,079 --> 00:54:34,599
Speaker 4: With Brian again, I like the Blue Jays here. Both

1040
00:54:34,639 --> 00:54:38,760
of these pitchers have good numbers against their opponent, but

1041
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,880
I have max suers are ranked a little bit higher. Yeah,

1042
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:47,119
he's getting up there in age, but if you look

1043
00:54:47,119 --> 00:54:49,880
at his last few starts, he's only given up four

1044
00:54:50,039 --> 00:54:53,119
earned runs in his last three starts, and he's gone

1045
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:56,519
seven plus inning or six plus innings in every one

1046
00:54:56,559 --> 00:54:59,159
of those starts. So I don't see any sign of

1047
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:03,360
age there. It might come. I don't think he's going

1048
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:05,559
to get blown up. He's a better pitcher than Keller

1049
00:55:05,559 --> 00:55:09,519
in my opinion, and but Keller has good numbers against

1050
00:55:09,519 --> 00:55:13,519
the Blue Jays too, So let's call the starting pitchers

1051
00:55:13,679 --> 00:55:17,079
a push. If we're going to be kind to the Pirates.

1052
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,719
I got the pirates bullpen ranked twenty nine out of thirty,

1053
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,039
and I got their hitting rink twenty eight out of thirty.

1054
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,760
Speaker 5: It's hard to win games when you are that bad.

1055
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:33,239
So despite being maybe comparable in starting pitching, the number

1056
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,920
six lineup should be able to take care of the

1057
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,280
Pirates here. I got it for minus one thirty five.

1058
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 4: I thought that was pretty good value, actually, and I did.

1059
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 5: I'm going to put that out as a client play,

1060
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:46,920
why not? I think minus one.

1061
00:55:47,519 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 4: If you think that's too steep, then make it a

1062
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,880
minus one. But yeah, Blue Jays would be the way

1063
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:53,840
to go in my opinion.

1064
00:55:56,079 --> 00:55:58,199
Speaker 1: My only issue with the Jays here because I like

1065
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:01,639
them as well, and I did my initial ass through games.

1066
00:56:01,639 --> 00:56:04,280
They're They're on my you know, that's the side I

1067
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:06,679
would want in this game. My only problem is, like

1068
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,639
Vlad is definitely not playing tonight. He tweaked his hamstring,

1069
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,239
so he's going to be out of the lineup. He

1070
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:15,480
and the line really hasn't moved, And the way I

1071
00:56:15,519 --> 00:56:18,280
look at this is like he's gotta be worth something.

1072
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,400
So it's like when is when is the market gonna

1073
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,000
wake up? And right like, when is some group going

1074
00:56:25,079 --> 00:56:29,280
to decide that they have to bet Pittsburgh because Blad's

1075
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,559
worth X number of cents to the line, Because now

1076
00:56:32,599 --> 00:56:34,639
I'd be willing to play back on that because I

1077
00:56:34,679 --> 00:56:37,800
don't I don't necessarily think the Jays need Lad in

1078
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,960
the lineup to win this game, but I need to

1079
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:42,559
be getting something in return for that, right Like I

1080
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:46,559
need to be getting twenty cents thirty cents for Vlad

1081
00:56:46,559 --> 00:56:49,400
Guerrero because if I'm not, I can't bet the Blue

1082
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:52,559
Jays because they are I mean, he is a player

1083
00:56:52,679 --> 00:56:56,840
that like should move the number probably twenty cents. I

1084
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:57,239
don't know.

1085
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:04,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, but lineup guys is injured.

1086
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 1: But I mean I can name the whole I can

1087
00:57:07,039 --> 00:57:13,679
also name Indianapolis Indians of guys that should be listen. Yeah,

1088
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,760
like the no, no, there's no question, Like the Pirates

1089
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,440
are a bad baseball team. But you can't take Vlad

1090
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,480
out of that lineup and tell me he's not worth

1091
00:57:21,679 --> 00:57:25,400
thirty cents twenty cents if that moves and all of

1092
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,880
a sudden we're sitting here, Jay's minus one twenty five, Well, yeah,

1093
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,320
I got to think about the Jays at that point

1094
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:35,199
because I I would disagree with the Pirates taking it

1095
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:39,000
and an absorbent amount of money just because lads not playing.

1096
00:57:39,239 --> 00:57:41,280
But if it's going to stay in this current price range,

1097
00:57:41,639 --> 00:57:45,000
I I can't get involved because he's absolutely worth something

1098
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:48,079
to the number. All right, we're getting toward the end

1099
00:57:48,119 --> 00:57:50,880
of the show. Have we have we talked about a

1100
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,159
game that that that you guys want to put in

1101
00:57:54,199 --> 00:57:55,960
the parlay or do we have? Go ahead, Brian, what

1102
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:56,639
I'll do?

1103
00:57:56,800 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 3: Mine? First off, it is five dollar ts there and

1104
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:03,639
we all have free plays up, and I've got best

1105
00:58:03,639 --> 00:58:06,639
bets up. I do want to point out a couple things.

1106
00:58:06,679 --> 00:58:10,920
First of all, Adam is it's been hot as hell

1107
00:58:11,199 --> 00:58:13,599
in Triple A. I know they don't show that on

1108
00:58:13,639 --> 00:58:17,559
the on the site, but if you're playing Triple A Baseball,

1109
00:58:17,559 --> 00:58:21,119
make sure you join Adam. He's been terrific in that regard. Brandon,

1110
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:24,039
as he mentioned another streep of the board yesterday, he's

1111
00:58:24,079 --> 00:58:26,639
been having a hell of a season. He's had a

1112
00:58:26,679 --> 00:58:29,519
hell of a career. Over at wager talk, I've won

1113
00:58:29,679 --> 00:58:32,440
nine of the last ten days in Major League Baseball,

1114
00:58:32,559 --> 00:58:34,960
number one, the last three, number two to the last seven.

1115
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:39,199
I've got my five percent play up. I'm going to

1116
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:41,840
go back to this Seattle Philadelphia game. I think there's

1117
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:47,599
many ways to play this. We've We've got already got

1118
00:58:47,679 --> 00:58:50,239
the Seattle plus one and a half part of the parlay.

1119
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:52,719
I'm gonna go back to the same game. I like

1120
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:55,880
the Philadelphia team total under four and a half here.

1121
00:58:56,559 --> 00:58:59,519
As I said, Miller is not only healthy and he

1122
00:58:59,599 --> 00:59:02,199
feels health. He's been in the minors for a while

1123
00:59:02,559 --> 00:59:04,519
and he's had plenty of time to build up. It's

1124
00:59:04,519 --> 00:59:07,800
not like they rushed him back or anything they haven't

1125
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:10,920
had that, you know, the vegacy. Then now, obviously Gilbert

1126
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:12,760
may leave and they need to bring somebody else up,

1127
00:59:13,039 --> 00:59:15,639
but he was already scheduled to come up here. I

1128
00:59:15,679 --> 00:59:17,360
think we're going to get a good effort from him

1129
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:20,679
and the four best pitchers in the Seattle bullpen, which

1130
00:59:20,679 --> 00:59:23,599
is a pretty good bullpen. We'll all be available today.

1131
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:27,000
I think Philadelphia under four and a half is going

1132
00:59:27,039 --> 00:59:30,039
to be my free play or my best bet in

1133
00:59:30,079 --> 00:59:33,280
this parlay here for hopefully we get to in a

1134
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,800
row here. We won yesterday, let's get it again today.

1135
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna change I'm gonna change my leg if you're

1136
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:40,719
gonna do that, which I'm fine with because I just

1137
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:43,880
I think it's going to be for two reasons. One,

1138
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,239
I don't think people are going to be able to

1139
00:59:47,239 --> 00:59:52,039
parlay a run line and a team total under. So

1140
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,440
but I'm cool with it. Like I I actually I

1141
00:59:55,599 --> 00:59:57,960
like your angle better than Mariners plus one and a

1142
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,159
half there, so if that's okay, Hey Brian, what was

1143
01:00:01,239 --> 01:00:03,599
what was it again? It's Philly's team total under.

1144
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,039
Speaker 3: Team total under four and a half minus one twenty five.

1145
01:00:09,159 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 1: Team total under four and a half minus one twenty

1146
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,519
five and just quickly. We don't need to rehash it

1147
01:00:15,599 --> 01:00:18,039
if you've missed the show or any point of the show.

1148
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:21,039
I'm using Cubs in Game one because I don't think

1149
01:00:21,039 --> 01:00:23,400
I'm gonna be able to make a straight bet on it.

1150
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,880
They've taken a little bit of money, but I think

1151
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:28,280
that I like that Cubs Game one. So, Brian, what

1152
01:00:28,639 --> 01:00:30,559
are you seeing Cubs Game one at right now?

1153
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:35,079
Speaker 3: It looks to be about a one to fifty all.

1154
01:00:35,039 --> 01:00:39,119
Speaker 1: Right, so Cubs minus one fifty per Game one. I

1155
01:00:39,159 --> 01:00:43,039
gotta I gotta bring this up. Tuck Nelson says, no way,

1156
01:00:43,079 --> 01:00:44,920
these guys are talking about parlaying. I mean this is

1157
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:47,519
something we do on the show literally every day. We've

1158
01:00:47,519 --> 01:00:53,079
done it all year. It's it's not like it's basically

1159
01:00:53,159 --> 01:00:56,480
a fun parlay we do for the show. You could

1160
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:59,320
basically take them and play them straight. So far this year,

1161
01:00:59,559 --> 01:01:02,360
we've done pretty much every day since we started the show,

1162
01:01:02,719 --> 01:01:05,480
and we're up five point three six units, or for

1163
01:01:05,519 --> 01:01:08,599
every dollar risk if you've risked the same thing on

1164
01:01:08,719 --> 01:01:11,800
each one, you're up five dollars and thirty six cents.

1165
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:15,480
So hey, we've been grinding out for months and we're

1166
01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:18,360
ahead on the parlays, So I don't know. I mean,

1167
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,440
I'm not a big parlay better either, but it's just

1168
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:21,480
something we do for fun.

1169
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 3: You've said it before. I don't play parlays. I don't

1170
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:29,760
recommend parlays. I play each individual leg. And even though

1171
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,000
we don't track that, I it's got to be much

1172
01:01:32,039 --> 01:01:34,360
higher than what we've done in the parlors.

1173
01:01:35,079 --> 01:01:38,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's five dollars Tuesday, guys, so go to

1174
01:01:38,519 --> 01:01:41,159
our sites down there. You can see what we have

1175
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:44,519
and our free place. My leg of the parlay is

1176
01:01:44,559 --> 01:01:46,960
going to be the Yankees on the money line. And

1177
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:50,039
since the show is basically over right now, I'll just

1178
01:01:50,159 --> 01:01:54,760
tell you real quick why I like Roodon's numbers against

1179
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:59,880
these Rays. I don't like Baz's numbers against the Yankees,

1180
01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:01,840
and Daz is a horrible home pitcher.

1181
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 5: Yankees have the better lineup.

1182
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 4: They got not the better bullpen, but they're comparable and

1183
01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:09,840
they got the much better starting pitcher.

1184
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:11,559
Speaker 5: So I like the Yankees on the money line.

1185
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:16,599
Speaker 3: Here they're currently minus one twenty five. And also, I

1186
01:02:16,639 --> 01:02:19,159
don't nobody mentioned this obviously, you just talked about it.

1187
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:22,559
This is where the Yankees play in the spring training games.

1188
01:02:22,599 --> 01:02:25,159
They're very familiar with the stadium.

1189
01:02:25,599 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like them. On the money, it's a client

1190
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:29,880
play I put out. It's not my five dollars play.

1191
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:32,920
It's a lesser percent than that. But I did put

1192
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:34,280
this out to my clients as well.

1193
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, we were going to wrap the show up. I'll

1194
01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:40,679
just say I agree with you. That's another game I

1195
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:42,039
kind of had jotted down today.

1196
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:43,639
Speaker 5: We've been agreeing a lot lately.

1197
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's we've been a lot lately.

1198
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:49,639
Cheap price on Radon in my opinion, that raise lineup

1199
01:02:49,679 --> 01:02:52,960
can't really hit agree, don't. I don't hate that by

1200
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:56,559
any means. All Right, So the parlay which won yesterday

1201
01:02:56,920 --> 01:03:00,679
got us. We were getting dangerously close to even on

1202
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:02,960
the year, and then we hit the three team or yesterday. So,

1203
01:03:03,039 --> 01:03:06,679
like I said, back up five five point three six

1204
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:09,519
units on the parlay. Again, these are just for fun.

1205
01:03:09,599 --> 01:03:12,039
If you want the real plays, headed over to wager Talk,

1206
01:03:12,639 --> 01:03:14,920
where we put our real plays up every day. I

1207
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:17,440
don't want to see people in the comments are like,

1208
01:03:17,679 --> 01:03:19,960
why don't they post their pit This show is more

1209
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,760
about giving you guys baseball knowledge, and maybe you get

1210
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:25,239
a picked here and there. It's very simple. If you

1211
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:28,719
want the picks, we work for a pick site. They're

1212
01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:31,679
all on the site and on Tuesday they're up for

1213
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,199
five bucks, so check that. Check out the site. That's

1214
01:03:34,239 --> 01:03:36,360
where our picks are. If you want to come and

1215
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:39,719
learn about learn about baseball betting and break down games

1216
01:03:39,719 --> 01:03:41,880
for an hour, that's the show for you right here.

1217
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:43,880
So and basically the problem.

1218
01:03:43,719 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 4: Need to be if you need to be spoon fed

1219
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:48,280
free picks, you're never gonna win it this anyways, so

1220
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:51,519
just give up. We're giving you baseball knowledge so you

1221
01:03:51,559 --> 01:03:53,760
can use it and bet on your own. If you

1222
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:56,920
want our free plays, they're down there at the Scroller Go.

1223
01:03:58,119 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 3: We've got a lot of good guys in the room

1224
01:04:00,519 --> 01:04:03,400
if you don't want to pay for the picks. These

1225
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:06,159
guys are really knowledgeable. They've been with us all season long.

1226
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:10,280
I read the comments, especially if it's the ones where

1227
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:12,320
they put on the YouTube right and go back and

1228
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,679
comment on them. A lot of good information. Hey, we

1229
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:18,920
got what warming is? How they warming? So that's something

1230
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:19,480
I didn't know.

1231
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:24,519
Speaker 1: No, the the there's a lot of good info in

1232
01:04:24,519 --> 01:04:27,480
the comments section on the YouTube replay, and it's and

1233
01:04:27,519 --> 01:04:30,440
it's because the chat is very knowledgeable, so we we

1234
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:33,320
like nance says like, yeah, I mean it doesn't it

1235
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:36,239
probably isn't gonna it isn't gonna keep us in the

1236
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:39,159
top of the the wager Talk sales board. But like,

1237
01:04:39,239 --> 01:04:42,400
this show really is like about, you know, making your

1238
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:45,119
own plays and being better handicapper. But like, obviously we

1239
01:04:45,159 --> 01:04:48,519
always appreciate if you buy, so you know, I just

1240
01:04:48,519 --> 01:04:51,840
want to like and it's not it wasn't just that

1241
01:04:51,880 --> 01:04:53,719
one comment. It does come up, so I felt like

1242
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,440
it was a good time to, uh just point that

1243
01:04:56,519 --> 01:04:58,760
out if you want, if you want picks with UH

1244
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:01,599
with no analysis, just head over to YouTube. You'll find

1245
01:05:01,599 --> 01:05:04,159
a million people doing that. So at any rate.

1246
01:05:04,639 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 4: Dot com, there's there's at least twenty plus free plays

1247
01:05:08,599 --> 01:05:10,880
on the free ka page at wayjittalk dot com, and

1248
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:12,159
most of them are from us.

1249
01:05:14,639 --> 01:05:17,159
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's recap the parlay one more time.

1250
01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:20,159
See if we can back to back three teamers. I

1251
01:05:20,199 --> 01:05:23,679
know that's asking a lot, but let's see Cubs, which

1252
01:05:23,679 --> 01:05:25,840
are now minus one fifty in game one. I wonder

1253
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,280
if there is the Brewers are going to rest guys,

1254
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:31,119
because that's a pretty substantial move right there. Up to

1255
01:05:31,159 --> 01:05:33,880
the Cubs minus one fifty, so that is Cubs minus

1256
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:36,800
one fifty Game one and early game today. We then

1257
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:40,519
have Tokyo Brandon on the Yankees money line and Brian

1258
01:05:40,599 --> 01:05:43,559
Leonard is going to go with Phillies team total under

1259
01:05:43,559 --> 01:05:45,920
four and a half. And I suppose that you can't

1260
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:48,760
parlay a team total, maybe you can sub it out

1261
01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:51,400
for Mariners plus one and a half minus one forty.

1262
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:54,320
It would keep the price point on the parlay roughly

1263
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:57,159
the same that parlay comes out to plus four forty.

1264
01:05:57,440 --> 01:05:59,079
So let's see if we can do it again today.

1265
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:02,559
As always, it's Tuesday, five dollars place from all three

1266
01:06:02,559 --> 01:06:06,159
handicappers to check that out, and we'll be back with

1267
01:06:06,159 --> 01:06:08,039
you guys tomorrow, nine am Eastern. See you then,