WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:02.319 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 2 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:04.879 you today about a way that you can help support 3 00:00:04.879 --> 00:00:08.400 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 4 00:00:08.679 --> 00:00:12.119 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 5 00:00:12.199 --> 00:00:15.439 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 6 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:18.000 you sign up, you get access to all of our 7 00:00:18.039 --> 00:00:21.480 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 8 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:25.280 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 9 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:28.440 but this is the biggest and best way that you 10 00:00:28.440 --> 00:00:33.200 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 11 00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:36.200 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 12 00:00:36.200 --> 00:00:39.240 out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 13 00:00:39.479 --> 00:00:43.560 Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of Iizong. I'm Andy Milburn, 14 00:00:43.840 --> 00:00:44.600 I'm Jason. 15 00:00:44.399 --> 00:00:46.799 Lyons, I'm Dimitri Comtacos. 16 00:00:47.719 --> 00:00:50.439 It's amazing. We've got that absolutely down to a t. 17 00:00:50.679 --> 00:00:54.640 So we need to change that routine. Yeah, Unfortunately we 18 00:00:54.759 --> 00:00:58.719 have coming back to us Mark Pam forgive me for 19 00:00:58.759 --> 00:00:59.759 referring to him as Ad. 20 00:01:00.119 --> 00:01:01.719 All of us can pronounce. 21 00:01:01.359 --> 00:01:05.879 His name but this but but simply you know his 22 00:01:06.280 --> 00:01:10.439 h He's familiar to to a large number of our listeners. 23 00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:14.079 But we have a rapidly burgeoning that is growing audience. 24 00:01:14.200 --> 00:01:17.799 So for those of you are not Mark's an old 25 00:01:17.799 --> 00:01:21.519 friend of the team house and uh and and the 26 00:01:22.200 --> 00:01:25.959 we hope of our's hosts, at least now for now 27 00:01:27.000 --> 00:01:33.799 former Senior's almost about say yes, because that's that's kind 28 00:01:33.799 --> 00:01:37.239 of an am the tea house, but even better, very 29 00:01:37.359 --> 00:01:41.480 senior guy in the in the agency and you know Mark, 30 00:01:41.560 --> 00:01:47.760 or Mark's very self effacing about this, but has has 31 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:51.280 an unusual operational background too, for someone who starts started 32 00:01:51.319 --> 00:01:54.400 off as a case officer uh and and rose to 33 00:01:54.519 --> 00:01:58.359 the agencies and when the agencies, you know, highest ranks, 34 00:01:58.400 --> 00:02:05.040 but perhaps more importantly, is widely respected among agency guys, 35 00:02:05.079 --> 00:02:08.599 but also a lot of guys in the military who've 36 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:14.439 worked with him, especially in soft and especially in Afghanistan. 37 00:02:14.520 --> 00:02:19.680 But since leaving the military, Mark has has actually given 38 00:02:19.759 --> 00:02:24.639 life to that rather dead expression consultant and and and 39 00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:28.039 appears when he appears on TV, it's he's actually worth watching. 40 00:02:28.639 --> 00:02:30.400 Very I one. 41 00:02:31.280 --> 00:02:34.120 I get a lot of a lot of material from 42 00:02:34.159 --> 00:02:38.400 Mark without without plagiarizing him too much anyway, I hate 43 00:02:38.439 --> 00:02:42.159 to a long long lead in Mark, great to have you. 44 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:44.280 What is going on in Kursk? 45 00:02:44.960 --> 00:02:47.240 Well, first of all, thanks Andy and Jason and d 46 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:49.360 thank you so much for having me. I love the show, 47 00:02:49.479 --> 00:02:51.080 love coming on. It's you know, it's great to do 48 00:02:51.199 --> 00:02:53.680 kind of a long form discussion. I'm used to these, 49 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:55.840 you know, thirty or forty five second sound bites you 50 00:02:55.879 --> 00:02:59.400 know on TV. And Andy, just just one thing. Kind 51 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:02.199 of the secret of the business is, you know, everyone 52 00:03:02.439 --> 00:03:04.479 is humble. So I listened to what you all say 53 00:03:04.479 --> 00:03:07.120 too as well. I listen to others. There's no such 54 00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:11.120 thing as there's no such thing as borrowing analysis from 55 00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:13.680 other commentators because uh, you know, who the hell knows 56 00:03:13.680 --> 00:03:17.039 if we're if we're ever right, cursk has been has been. 57 00:03:17.919 --> 00:03:19.159 Let me let me put it this way. When I 58 00:03:19.159 --> 00:03:21.400 say fun, that's a horrible word to say in terms 59 00:03:21.400 --> 00:03:24.280 of war. But for for a couple of reasons, I've 60 00:03:24.400 --> 00:03:28.680 I've certainly enjoyed this, you know, first and foremost, Uh, 61 00:03:28.719 --> 00:03:31.479 there is a kind of a cast of characters in 62 00:03:31.719 --> 00:03:35.960 the foreign policy blob in Washington, amongst the some of 63 00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:38.439 the think tanks. And I'm not gonna name names because 64 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:40.159 that's stupid and I don't want to, you know, go 65 00:03:40.240 --> 00:03:42.280 down that road. But there's all this dooming always that 66 00:03:42.319 --> 00:03:44.759 goes on about Ukraine that you know, you know, it's 67 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:48.319 it's always the end. It's almost impossible to find anyone 68 00:03:48.360 --> 00:03:51.159 to say anything positive that's happening. And so this has 69 00:03:51.199 --> 00:03:54.719 been pretty extraordinary. This is a success. You know, we 70 00:03:54.759 --> 00:03:58.039 can we can debate for for for as long as 71 00:03:58.039 --> 00:04:00.800 we want about why the Ukrainians did this. We actually 72 00:04:00.840 --> 00:04:03.639 don't know particularly, and we can we can talk about it, 73 00:04:03.879 --> 00:04:07.919 whether it's for morale boost, whether it's for future pow swaps, 74 00:04:07.960 --> 00:04:14.400 whether it's for future negotiations when Ukraine actually has Russian territory. 75 00:04:14.199 --> 00:04:17.519 But it's a positive story. And even you know, Washington 76 00:04:17.560 --> 00:04:19.519 Post this morning ran a story, or the New York Times, 77 00:04:19.519 --> 00:04:22.560 I can't remember, and it's always the Ukrainians are doing great. 78 00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:27.000 But it is impossible for kind of the outlytic class 79 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:30.000 following Russia to say anything good. I mean, it's it's 80 00:04:30.000 --> 00:04:32.680 almost you know, we still keep treating Russia as ten 81 00:04:32.720 --> 00:04:35.319 feet tall militarily. It drives me nuts. But here's where 82 00:04:35.319 --> 00:04:38.600 it's really important. Guess what didn't happen with this? There 83 00:04:38.639 --> 00:04:41.879 was no fucking US whining, There was no complaints. Now 84 00:04:42.279 --> 00:04:44.800 in all the press reports we heard that this took 85 00:04:44.839 --> 00:04:48.480 the US by surprise. That's bullshit. There is an incredible 86 00:04:48.480 --> 00:04:53.360 intelligence soak there of human intelligence, signals, intelligence, certainly imagery, 87 00:04:53.759 --> 00:04:55.600 and there's also and I'll you know, not to get 88 00:04:55.639 --> 00:04:57.360 too much in trouble in this. When we work with 89 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:00.759 foreign liaison, we also penetrate foreign liss Liz, And there's 90 00:05:00.759 --> 00:05:02.720 nothing fucking that happens in that country that we don't 91 00:05:02.759 --> 00:05:05.000 know about. I'm sorry. So the idea that we didn't 92 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:07.360 know is bullshit. And you know, I think that's done 93 00:05:07.360 --> 00:05:10.959 for What we always mean is we weren't told. We 94 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:13.959 weren't told, we knew that, and that we knew and Andy, 95 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:15.720 guess what we didn't do. We didn't whine about it. 96 00:05:15.720 --> 00:05:17.519 You didn't have the chief of station or the ambassador 97 00:05:17.519 --> 00:05:19.639 go and do the little finger wagging to the Ukrainians, 98 00:05:19.639 --> 00:05:22.480 which is incredibly annoying every time they did something daring 99 00:05:22.519 --> 00:05:24.680 in the past. And that's the story. So the story 100 00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:29.160 to me is the US is okay with another country 101 00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:33.040 invading Russia. That's pretty fucking incredible. And so you know, 102 00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:35.800 that's what we tried to kind of talk about in 103 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:39.000 in in the media, and you know, ultimately that is 104 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:42.759 a sea change from the handwringing and you know, I 105 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:44.920 mean the NFC wakes up every morning. You know, you're 106 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:47.199 always gonna get unfiltered shit for me, and it's I've 107 00:05:47.240 --> 00:05:48.839 had a couple of cups of coffee, so here we go. 108 00:05:49.079 --> 00:05:51.199 But the National Security Council gets up every morning. The 109 00:05:51.199 --> 00:05:53.319 first thing they do, after you know, taking a dump, 110 00:05:53.839 --> 00:05:57.480 is they start worrying about escalation. That's the thing. I 111 00:05:57.480 --> 00:06:00.480 think they have T shirts made, uh and so, but 112 00:06:00.519 --> 00:06:02.199 in this case, they're not doing it. And I think 113 00:06:02.240 --> 00:06:05.240 that is amazing. And maybe, and maybe this is becoming 114 00:06:05.240 --> 00:06:08.600 too optimistic. Is at the end of Joe Biden's presidency 115 00:06:09.360 --> 00:06:11.480 where the United States has done, at the same time 116 00:06:11.480 --> 00:06:15.519 an extraordinary amount for Ukraine but also withheld a lot 117 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:18.879 and probably cause a lot of unnecessary guests. But maybe 118 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:21.079 we're going to allow the Ukrainians to take the gloves off. 119 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:23.480 And so I think that's the that's the story. But 120 00:06:23.560 --> 00:06:25.720 you know what interesting to hear your guys take on 121 00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:26.399 this too. 122 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:29.600 Well, I am yeah, I mean I don't have any 123 00:06:29.639 --> 00:06:34.759 instantly track on this. It it struck me by surprise, 124 00:06:34.879 --> 00:06:37.639 but the interest here's some interesting things about it. So 125 00:06:38.560 --> 00:06:42.040 I from my perspective, Yeah, number one, I think that's 126 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:45.879 that that is so incredibly refreshing that we're not playing 127 00:06:46.240 --> 00:06:48.959 kind of you know, this frightened old woman in the kitchen, 128 00:06:49.160 --> 00:06:52.079 wringing our hands every time, and and yet at the 129 00:06:52.120 --> 00:06:55.639 same time stop Ukraine for ammunition. You know that was 130 00:06:55.879 --> 00:06:58.560 that was the ironic thing, wagging our finger and let 131 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:05.399 yet going through this ridicut kill us domestic uh kabuki dance, 132 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:10.399 which that costs lives. We all know that they cost lives. 133 00:07:10.560 --> 00:07:14.439 But more important, perhaps more importantly, shut up, sir, but 134 00:07:14.519 --> 00:07:19.839 perhaps more importantly we we lost some of our leverage 135 00:07:20.199 --> 00:07:23.160 there as far as you know, the what we were 136 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:26.439 doing to the Russians five Ukrainians and Russians were willing 137 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:29.199 to adapt. So I think this is entirely positive. The 138 00:07:29.279 --> 00:07:31.480 other thing, but the other side from the US reactions, 139 00:07:31.720 --> 00:07:35.079 what really surprises me is the Russian reaction, or lack thereof. 140 00:07:35.399 --> 00:07:38.720 Remember, you know train the counter isis campaign. 141 00:07:38.759 --> 00:07:42.319 If we even straight over that boundary into this land, 142 00:07:42.360 --> 00:07:46.199 they went ape ship right, you know, because they knew that. 143 00:07:46.319 --> 00:07:47.079 It's symbolic. 144 00:07:47.160 --> 00:07:50.240 Whether the Russians know how important this is a putin, 145 00:07:50.279 --> 00:07:53.360 does You've we've seen one TV losing his mind, and 146 00:07:53.439 --> 00:07:57.600 yet the response has been pathetic and and the prisoners 147 00:07:57.600 --> 00:08:01.160 that the Ukrainians surrounding up perhaps an indicator of of 148 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:03.800 why that is. You know, a lot of cons I 149 00:08:03.839 --> 00:08:07.120 mean they're all conscripts, but you know, the prisoners guys 150 00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:10.600 from National Guard, internal military force, so that this was 151 00:08:10.600 --> 00:08:14.759 an economy of force thing that the Russians, you know 152 00:08:14.800 --> 00:08:19.720 that the defensive positions groundcase. Ukrainians knew that took advantage 153 00:08:19.759 --> 00:08:23.639 of it. And you know, it's a Theta company now. 154 00:08:24.079 --> 00:08:27.360 And and I think the Ukrainians have surprised themselves with 155 00:08:27.399 --> 00:08:31.360 their success because of the lack of counterattacks last thing 156 00:08:31.439 --> 00:08:34.240 though they have now probably even even with the lack 157 00:08:34.279 --> 00:08:37.039 of resistance, they're approaching that culminating point, and they've got 158 00:08:37.080 --> 00:08:39.480 to make a decision what to do, you know, right? 159 00:08:39.600 --> 00:08:41.240 So yeah, so what comes next? I mean, I don't know, 160 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:45.799 that's a that's a great question. But what is you know, 161 00:08:45.879 --> 00:08:48.159 and and you know, the the the other part of this, 162 00:08:48.320 --> 00:08:50.759 of course, there's a there's a piece of the Washington 163 00:08:50.759 --> 00:08:52.879 Post today that and I have heard snippets of this 164 00:08:52.919 --> 00:08:54.759 maybe you have as well, as there have been behind 165 00:08:54.799 --> 00:09:00.000 the scenes kind of talks about future negotiations. Yeah, and uh, 166 00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:03.000 that was really interesting. Wasn't it. Yeah, and I and 167 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:05.080 i'd heard that kind of just you know, kind of 168 00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:08.000 through the great finding. And frankly, look, if Ukrainians want 169 00:09:08.039 --> 00:09:09.600 to do this, it's up. If my my view has 170 00:09:09.639 --> 00:09:11.759 always been Ukraine will settle this on, you know, when 171 00:09:11.759 --> 00:09:13.799 they're ready to settle this, and it should not be 172 00:09:13.840 --> 00:09:17.200 forced on by the United States. And so uh uh 173 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:19.960 and I guess I guess, you know, we'll see how 174 00:09:19.960 --> 00:09:21.679 this how this goes. I mean, I don't know. I was, 175 00:09:21.759 --> 00:09:25.279 you know, watching obviously, you know, following all the open 176 00:09:25.320 --> 00:09:27.799 source stuff yesterday, and I see, you know, they're dropping bridges. 177 00:09:29.159 --> 00:09:31.320 I mean, this is this using US armaments. So this 178 00:09:31.360 --> 00:09:34.519 is fantastic. Uh And uh, you know, let's see let's 179 00:09:34.519 --> 00:09:36.519 and and and you know, the f sixteens. How much 180 00:09:36.559 --> 00:09:39.519 are they in play? You know, who knows? But I 181 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:41.639 guess that The other point just to make is I 182 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:44.240 still don't understand why kind of this weird world that 183 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:46.320 we live in that it is impossible to under to 184 00:09:46.679 --> 00:09:50.399 actually celebrate Ukrainian successes without kind of the dooming that 185 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:52.320 goes on. I mean, you know, really there's there's so 186 00:09:52.480 --> 00:09:55.799 much of Ukraine is doing well, but you know, Russia 187 00:09:55.919 --> 00:09:58.480 is going to you know, russ reinforcements. Russia is going 188 00:09:58.480 --> 00:10:01.320 to do this that you know, it's it's very odd. 189 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:03.080 I don't know if that kind of translates maybe your 190 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:05.279 contacts and the Pentagon, but it certainly is in kind 191 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:07.519 of the think tank class that drives me nuts. 192 00:10:07.759 --> 00:10:12.480 Yeah, I don't have an answer for you. I think though, 193 00:10:12.799 --> 00:10:16.080 perhaps it's a response to the fact that pundits went 194 00:10:16.360 --> 00:10:19.039 strongly the other way back in twenty twenty two. Right, 195 00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:25.200 it was this kind of euphoria and feeling that you know, 196 00:10:25.279 --> 00:10:27.399 the war would end soon. I mean, it was kind 197 00:10:27.399 --> 00:10:31.080 of implicit, and I think that's probably kind of just 198 00:10:31.120 --> 00:10:34.639 a suburban claud Switz reaction to the fact that that 199 00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:35.559 didn't happen. 200 00:10:37.919 --> 00:10:40.000 It's, you know, any any. 201 00:10:39.799 --> 00:10:42.799 Balanced story, it's got to obviously, you know, there's enough 202 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:45.159 to be pessimistic about. It's very interesting what you said 203 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:46.240 about the talks and Cutter. 204 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:47.120 Yeah. 205 00:10:47.159 --> 00:10:52.679 Now, my understanding is those talks were exclusively focused, supposed 206 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:57.120 to be exclusively focused from the Ukrainian perspective on kind 207 00:10:57.120 --> 00:11:00.000 of an agreement on the energy sector. On both side, 208 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:04.120 it's like hands off, hands off infrastructure everything from you know, 209 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:09.080 for for safety concerns, about nuclear plants to the fact 210 00:11:09.120 --> 00:11:13.399 that Ukraine's hanging on by its fingernails, you know, this 211 00:11:13.519 --> 00:11:16.159 last winter and it's not looking forward to this next winter, 212 00:11:16.480 --> 00:11:19.720 and wants to impose some costs on Russia in order 213 00:11:19.759 --> 00:11:22.639 to have a bargaining tool and cutter. That was kind 214 00:11:22.679 --> 00:11:24.960 of that was my impression of it, you know, and 215 00:11:25.360 --> 00:11:30.000 from an official stance, Ukrainians are saying no negotiation until 216 00:11:30.080 --> 00:11:34.639 all Russian boots are off, even out of Crimea. But 217 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:41.080 it's interesting, yeah, that was that. That's the first negotiation, 218 00:11:42.559 --> 00:11:46.080 actually the first kind of negotiating, substantive negotiation, you could say, 219 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:49.399 since the you know all the arguments about green export. 220 00:11:49.399 --> 00:11:52.240 Right right, then you forget from one thing. I want 221 00:11:52.279 --> 00:11:54.159 to raise though for the audience, and I think this 222 00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:57.320 is important part and this kind of applies to everybody here, 223 00:11:57.639 --> 00:12:00.240 you know. I always look at these conflicts as as 224 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:02.960 a former practitioner, which means I wasn't at the National 225 00:12:02.960 --> 00:12:05.919 Security Council, I wasn't at CI headquarters. I wasn't attending 226 00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:08.799 you know, white House meetings in the situation room. I 227 00:12:08.840 --> 00:12:11.320 always I always try to think about this as, okay, 228 00:12:11.360 --> 00:12:13.240 what if I was with my old colleagues in the 229 00:12:13.279 --> 00:12:17.000 field in the in the AO uh uh, and we'll 230 00:12:17.039 --> 00:12:18.960 just we'll kind of leave it as in the Ukraine 231 00:12:19.000 --> 00:12:22.080 AO to protect what we're doing and what we're not. 232 00:12:22.159 --> 00:12:25.200 But that means, you know, there's there's a great deal 233 00:12:25.240 --> 00:12:28.360 of side by sides with our Ukrainian partners, and you know, 234 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:31.000 for the and I think there there's always has been, 235 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:33.080 and I and talking to my friends who've come back 236 00:12:33.080 --> 00:12:35.720 from Ukraine, I mean there's a little bit of embarrassments 237 00:12:35.759 --> 00:12:38.240 the wrong word, because we've helped them tremendously, but you know, 238 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:42.159 we also have held back on aid. There is you know, 239 00:12:42.519 --> 00:12:45.799 a big domestic constituency constituency in the United States who 240 00:12:45.840 --> 00:12:49.440 is kind of viscerally opposed uh to US assistants to Ukraine. 241 00:12:49.480 --> 00:12:52.600 So if you're a if you're a you know, someone 242 00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:56.240 from you from SAFF from the intelligence community, and you're 243 00:12:56.279 --> 00:12:58.279 working side by side with the Ukrainians, there were some 244 00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:00.879 tough times. Yeah, you know, you had to do a 245 00:13:00.919 --> 00:13:04.960 lot of explaining you know why. For example, uh, you know, 246 00:13:05.039 --> 00:13:07.919 if you're next to someone from you know, Ukrainian military 247 00:13:07.919 --> 00:13:11.639 intelligence whose family is hiding in a shelter, maybe you 248 00:13:11.679 --> 00:13:13.720 know family members have been killed, you know why the 249 00:13:13.799 --> 00:13:16.080 US is not doing enough. So for the first time, 250 00:13:16.840 --> 00:13:18.399 what I was thinking about the other day was, Hey, 251 00:13:18.399 --> 00:13:21.039 you know, if you're a US practitioner on the ground, 252 00:13:21.279 --> 00:13:23.159 you know, this is a time where you know you're 253 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:25.799 looking at your you know, your Ukrainian colleague across the 254 00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:27.480 table or sitting next to you, you know, having a 255 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:31.799 you know, having a beverage, and you can have some 256 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:34.080 pride in that the US is actually kind of doing 257 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:36.159 the right thing and we're letting the Ukrainians take the 258 00:13:36.200 --> 00:13:38.039 gloves off a little bit. That always kind of runs 259 00:13:38.039 --> 00:13:40.919 through my mind because you know, it's you know, the 260 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:43.879 one thing we do to our detriment is we fall 261 00:13:43.919 --> 00:13:47.200 in love with our partners. I did that with the Kurds, 262 00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:49.840 I did that with Syrians. I did that certainly with 263 00:13:49.879 --> 00:13:50.559 the Afghans. 264 00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:53.559 Is an American thing. I think it's an American thing, 265 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:58.639 and we also something proud of too. Yeah, yeah, I mean. 266 00:14:00.440 --> 00:14:02.000 So I thought that was kind of that's an interesting 267 00:14:02.080 --> 00:14:04.759 just kind of I'm sure some of our old colleagues 268 00:14:04.759 --> 00:14:07.840 are feeling pretty good that they can kind of sit 269 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:10.559 with a lot of pride next to the Ukrainians in 270 00:14:10.600 --> 00:14:11.039 these days. 271 00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:15.039 It's it's an anomaly. We've We've spoken about this before 272 00:14:15.039 --> 00:14:17.559 on the program. Mark is that you know, in our 273 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:23.360 former professions, you know, military, on the intelligence agency, people 274 00:14:23.399 --> 00:14:26.759 tend to be right of center, right, you know, especially 275 00:14:26.759 --> 00:14:29.960 in the United States, less so in European militaries where 276 00:14:29.960 --> 00:14:32.279 you see more of a kind of an equal distribution, 277 00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:35.000 but certainly in the military, we tend to be you know, 278 00:14:35.480 --> 00:14:40.200 pretty conservative, small big c. And yet we've got this 279 00:14:40.279 --> 00:14:44.519 anomaly where you have a conservative element within the United 280 00:14:44.600 --> 00:14:49.000 States opposing a to Ukraine for reasons that define me. 281 00:14:49.399 --> 00:14:51.840 You know, the chance to break down an enemy, a 282 00:14:51.919 --> 00:14:56.039 longstanding enemy, whether it's communists or now an autocratic state, 283 00:14:56.120 --> 00:14:59.759 it's an enemy of the United States, sprinking and reducing 284 00:15:00.799 --> 00:15:05.679 their ability to exert power on their neighbors is absolutely 285 00:15:05.679 --> 00:15:08.120 in our national interests. And if we can do that 286 00:15:08.440 --> 00:15:11.399 it costs only financial costs and not a single drop 287 00:15:11.399 --> 00:15:12.279 of NATO blood. 288 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:15.039 Why the hell wouldn't we do that? That's that is 289 00:15:15.120 --> 00:15:16.679 what blows me out of the water. 290 00:15:16.799 --> 00:15:21.240 And and my colleagues, regardless of how they vote or 291 00:15:21.720 --> 00:15:24.279 none of them, none of them can explain why that 292 00:15:24.440 --> 00:15:27.399 is the case, why we would refuse to support Ukraine. 293 00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:29.080 I mean, what the fuck? 294 00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:31.240 I mean? At a cost of money. 295 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:34.639 Complain with the richest nation. I know we throw We've 296 00:15:34.639 --> 00:15:38.279 all seen money thrown away on ridiculous stuff in Afghanistan 297 00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:40.639 and Iraq. At last there is a chance to see 298 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:44.399 our butt actually buy something in terms of you know, 299 00:15:44.399 --> 00:15:45.799 I had to say it, but the blood of our. 300 00:15:45.799 --> 00:15:49.159 Enemy right without cost. 301 00:15:49.960 --> 00:15:52.960 But that is too expensive, never mind twenty years of 302 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:56.320 war in our own blood and treasure for no gain 303 00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:56.960 at all. 304 00:15:57.320 --> 00:16:00.639 And not have said it better. I agree thousand percent. 305 00:16:00.639 --> 00:16:03.200 And I've had huge arguments. I mean there's you know, 306 00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:05.159 you know, I was I was talking to a friend 307 00:16:05.200 --> 00:16:08.720 of mine. He's a it was a former Air Force 308 00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:10.279 still in the reserves, he said, kind of on the 309 00:16:10.279 --> 00:16:13.480 air Force blogs. There's this kind of virulent anti Ukraine 310 00:16:13.559 --> 00:16:15.320 streak too. I just don't understand it. 311 00:16:15.799 --> 00:16:17.919 Well. I mean, that's I think one thing we can 312 00:16:17.919 --> 00:16:19.720 explain there is it's an air Force blog. 313 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:22.639 I mean, I mean, it's a different type. 314 00:16:22.679 --> 00:16:25.799 It can't I mean, you know, I mean it's super bright, 315 00:16:25.840 --> 00:16:28.679 but they are when we're talking Foma military, I don't 316 00:16:28.679 --> 00:16:32.799 necessarily include the Air Force in that, you know what 317 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:35.759 I mean, They're a wild call right. 318 00:16:36.159 --> 00:16:38.399 In my conversations. It's when it's come up. 319 00:16:38.440 --> 00:16:43.600 It's always been uh implied, and that sometimes outright said 320 00:16:43.639 --> 00:16:47.720 that it's because they are in office. We know who 321 00:16:47.799 --> 00:16:50.679 there is, you know, the other side. But if it 322 00:16:50.720 --> 00:16:53.039 was their side that was in office, they'd be all 323 00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:55.080 for it. So that's what I'm getting. I'm not saying 324 00:16:55.080 --> 00:16:59.960 that that's the majority and that's the whole reason, but that's. 325 00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:02.480 You know, and I'm hearing you know that they you. 326 00:17:02.440 --> 00:17:05.000 Know, we missed the old national security Republicans. I mean, 327 00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:07.000 just that's just that's just a fact. I don't know 328 00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:10.759 what's happened, Yeah, exactly. Now, you did have Lindsey Graham, 329 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:13.079 you know who is, you know, in you know, the 330 00:17:13.119 --> 00:17:15.000 other day kind of screaming for you know, former F 331 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:17.839 sixteen pilots to come volunteer to go to Ukraine, which 332 00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:21.279 I thought was first of all, pretty funny, nothing wrong 333 00:17:21.319 --> 00:17:24.279 with that, But that's a boat from the blue was 334 00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:25.480 out of nowhere. Okay. 335 00:17:26.359 --> 00:17:29.400 The same guy who's demanding that, Zleinsky comes and visits 336 00:17:29.480 --> 00:17:32.400 him in his office to explain, you know, I mean, right, 337 00:17:32.759 --> 00:17:35.839 these kinds, Yeah, there's no consistency. It's based on on 338 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:40.599 that perception of constituent bias, right or emotion. 339 00:17:40.880 --> 00:17:43.400 I mean Lindsay Graham is relatively hawkish, though he was 340 00:17:43.400 --> 00:17:45.759 talking about preemptive strike and Iran from sure. 341 00:17:45.920 --> 00:17:47.559 Yeah, he's pretty out good. 342 00:17:47.559 --> 00:17:49.839 I mean, there are plenty of national security Republicans, the 343 00:17:49.880 --> 00:17:51.640 kind of old school ones, and some of them, you know, 344 00:17:51.680 --> 00:17:55.279 are you know, run powerful committees in Congress. You know, 345 00:17:55.359 --> 00:17:57.160 you have all the mics. Who is it, Mike Turner, 346 00:17:57.240 --> 00:18:02.680 McCall others, and uh, but it's just the Republican Party changed. 347 00:18:02.759 --> 00:18:05.319 I mean, I'm sorry that, you know, the presidential candidate 348 00:18:05.319 --> 00:18:07.559 for the Republicans hates Ukraine and doesn't want to spend 349 00:18:07.599 --> 00:18:10.720 a penny on this, and so I think that's a problem. 350 00:18:10.839 --> 00:18:13.680 And I'm not you know, I don't think I'm making 351 00:18:13.720 --> 00:18:16.440 a political statement, uh when I uh. 352 00:18:16.559 --> 00:18:18.880 What's what's even worse is when they drag up a 353 00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:22.559 guy who's you know, we have a point political, but 354 00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:25.920 you know, a PAO enlisted marine and then quote him 355 00:18:25.960 --> 00:18:28.759 as though he's the you know, I mean we're talking 356 00:18:28.759 --> 00:18:29.160 about JD. 357 00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:29.599 Vance. 358 00:18:29.680 --> 00:18:32.640 I mean, I have no opinion of him, you know, 359 00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:35.640 other than that, but let's put this in context. He 360 00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:39.000 was an enlisted p AO, right, he was six months 361 00:18:39.000 --> 00:18:41.759 in Iraq? Yeah, in Iraq. I mean that doesn't make 362 00:18:41.880 --> 00:18:45.119 him an expert on national security, but his comments are 363 00:18:45.160 --> 00:18:47.640 being taken as though they came from the Delphi Oracle, 364 00:18:48.079 --> 00:18:50.920 you know, like it's absurd. 365 00:18:51.000 --> 00:18:55.720 Anyway, back to uh, you digressed into the politics exactly 366 00:18:55.759 --> 00:18:56.559 what we didn't want to do. 367 00:18:56.759 --> 00:19:01.240 Yeah, anyway, No, I mean back to so what next month? 368 00:19:01.240 --> 00:19:02.359 What do you think is going to happen? 369 00:19:02.799 --> 00:19:05.119 So I think that, you know, the kind of the 370 00:19:06.640 --> 00:19:10.720 key points on this obviously are November the presidential election 371 00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:13.480 in the United States, and and I you know, the 372 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:16.319 you know so much you know rides on that. At 373 00:19:16.359 --> 00:19:19.279 the same time, though, you know, just having been in 374 00:19:19.519 --> 00:19:20.680 I was in Greece for a couple of weeks, I 375 00:19:20.759 --> 00:19:23.079 stopped in the UK. I mean, there is is a 376 00:19:23.079 --> 00:19:25.599 feeling that the Europeans have stepped up. And if you 377 00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:28.640 just look at numbers in terms of European assistants Ukraine, 378 00:19:28.680 --> 00:19:29.720 it's pretty pretty amazing. 379 00:19:29.759 --> 00:19:29.920 You know. 380 00:19:29.960 --> 00:19:32.519 Again, charges that the that the US has bankrolled everything 381 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:36.880 is bullshit. Ukraine has has put up a huge amount 382 00:19:36.880 --> 00:19:40.039 of resources. And and you have countries, you know, kind 383 00:19:40.079 --> 00:19:42.559 of the the you know, in the in Central Europe 384 00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:45.039 or or maybe the not that not the older not 385 00:19:45.039 --> 00:19:46.839 not Germany or or France or the UK, but you 386 00:19:46.880 --> 00:19:50.880 have countries like Poland in frontline states that are really 387 00:19:50.920 --> 00:19:54.279 hawkish that understand, uh, the Russian threat. So I think 388 00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:56.440 that Europe just in general is in a much better 389 00:19:57.880 --> 00:19:59.960 position on this. And and one kind of one other 390 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:02.240 note there, and you know, perhaps and I think I'm 391 00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:04.799 I'm right on this, is that there's not that there's 392 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:07.759 not political divides between left and right. For example, in 393 00:20:07.799 --> 00:20:10.759 the UK, you know changing you know, changing government policy, 394 00:20:10.759 --> 00:20:14.480 and Ukraine's the same, and I think that's important. You know, 395 00:20:14.559 --> 00:20:16.559 Germany is having some issues now. But you know, when 396 00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:18.920 I when I've talked to my contacts in Germany, because 397 00:20:19.000 --> 00:20:20.519 you know, there's been a kind of a halt on 398 00:20:20.559 --> 00:20:22.519 German assistance. There's this is this is you know, they're 399 00:20:22.559 --> 00:20:24.359 running around and this has to do with a budget 400 00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:27.759 issue rather than actual kind of you know, lack of 401 00:20:27.799 --> 00:20:31.720