Speaker 1: Jim was great, by the way, Yes, he's awesome.
Speaker 2: All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday, It's time for full
court press. We were just talking backstage about how great
Jim Root was yesterday filling in for me. So shout
out to Jim for holding down the fort. He did great.
He gave out South Carolina rob. I already see the comments,
so I got to pop in here. Yes, I ruined
the parlay with Marist. I was in traffic when I
texted that, so I had no analysis, but everything checked out,
Like all of the sort of info I had on
that game checked out.
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech the big reason I like that.
Speaker 2: So I mean not that this does you any good now,
but I guess I'll quickly say the reason I liked
Maris at seven and a half last night, I had
pretty good intel that in Dongo was going to remain
out for Georgia Tech. He did, and I thought without
him it would be a good matchup for Marris defense,
which is very good and credit to Georgia Tech. They
put up eighty seven points eight for eleven from three.
They shot nearly sixty fifty eight percent from the field.
I just got to tip my cap there. I mean,
that's just a that's just much better than I thought
Georgia Tech could muster up without one of their biggest
offensive threats.
Speaker 3: So sorry for ruining the parlay.
Speaker 2: But again, Jim did great yesterday, and I'll promote like
the whole way I made this show up. Like before
the season, I talked to the Three Man Weave guys
and I said, Hey, are you guys doing a weekday
show because they haven't done it the last couple of years,
and they said, no, we've got other stuff going on.
We're just gonna keep our best Bet show on Saturday.
And I always like their chat mob portion of the show.
So the way they do their show, they have an outline,
they go to a chat break where they just rapid
fire questions and then they go back to the outline.
And I was like, I asked them, I said, can
I just steal the chat mob idea and do a
full show like that? And they were like, yeah, go
for it. So that's kind of where I got the
idea for this. But Jim still does a show with
Kai and Matty Cox on Saturdays for an hour, So
if you're looking for more Jim route Saturday morning, I
think They do like their show at eleven am right
up until the noon tip offs, so check that out.
And yeah, it was great to have him fill in.
Rob Bino, you came through with your leg at the
parlay as well, so congrats on that. Over I hit
my client playing Canisius. I have four straight winning days.
Someone's like Trig's ice cold. I've not won four straight days.
So you're gonna have to go back to last week
for the ice cold, Trig, because we got four winning
days in.
Speaker 3: A row and we're gonna try to do it again
here today.
Speaker 2: So Rob, welcome in, and I think we should kick
off with Vandy Memphis.
Speaker 3: This feels like the biggest game of the day.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Probably. I mean, for what it's worth, there's three
teams in college basketball out of the Power five or
whatever you want to label him as Power four, power five,
it doesn't matter. Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State, and Michigan where through
ten ten or so games this season, I think I
have been extremely impressed and may be surprised by their
offensive output. Oklahoma State was not this type of offensive
team for the last couple of years. Michigan's scoring one
hundred a night. You're like, who the heck is that
in Mason Blue. That's Michigan now. And Vandy has just
been an offensive juggernaut all season long. And I don't
want to sell them short because going through their numbers
this morning, they've been solid defensively too. I'll start with this,
the strength of schedule is certainly in favor of Memphis
as of this point. However, Vandy's played VCU Saint Mary's
in SMU in three of their last four, not exactly slouches,
and come through with huge wins overall three really not
even close. Vanderbilt now, it's still undefeated offensively did the job.
When you can line up and play Saint Mary's score
ninety six neutral, that's a big deal. So I find
it hard to see Memphis containing Vanderbilt here today, despite
the fact that Memphis has the home floor. Vandy not
necessarily a team that's been in a lot of true
road games so far this season UCF aside from that,
all Neutrals in home, so it'll be a different deal
for Vandy to go on the road play Memphis here.
But I don't see their offense being stopped at them.
That being said, the Memphis side, as I mentioned, good
talent strong schedule, have not come up big and hardly
any of these games other than Baylor where they beat Baylor.
Otherwise they're losing to every team in Vandy's weight class
that they've played. Kind of hard to make the case
for them here to go ahead and win this game.
Vanderbilt sort of has the Memphis option covered. Where Memphis,
generally speaking, would like to outrun you outscore you, not
going to be the case against Vanderbilt here. They just
have shot makers. Going through their numbers early this morning,
they've shot fifty percent or better in like seven games
already Vandy has, and they're holding opponents to seventy five
or less in eight of those ten. That combination is
really really good. I find it hard to poke a
weakness in Vanderbilt so far. We'll see if on the
road against a team like Memphis that can hit the glass,
that can play up tempo, et cetera, et cetera. But
I just think Vandy's got enough on their resume right
now to show that they can handle this. Two things.
I looked at their team total because I really would
rather focus on their offensive prowess rather than try and
lay eight points on the road Eighty two and a
half seems like a very doable number in a game
that won't be played in the half court for the
most part, won't be played at a snail's pace. As
I speak at them, we see a universal jump in
this number to nine and a half. Bandy has now
flown from seven and a half all the way to
nine and a half. Total down a little bit to
one fifty eight and a half. I think my best
recommendation here is to stick to the team total thought
that I had, just because Vandy has scored on everybody.
That number is eighty two and a half. I think
they should get to eighty three or better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that move toward Memphis, I think they had that
there was a couple guys at least one, and I'm
just trying to go back into my notes that was
questionable tonight for Memphis. I wonder if that move suggests
that I believe it's Julius Thedford that missed the last
couple games, So I wonder if he remains out for Memphis,
or it's just a move toward a very good Vanderbilt team.
Speaker 3: Rob. I think I owe Penny Hardaway an apology.
Speaker 2: I have been critical of him in past years, not
so much this year, but I've been critical of his
coaching skills, and I'm gonna I'm gonna like I owe
an apology, because yeah, he might not be the guy
that's gonna like X and O you to death or
draw up a player or have some like like crazy
schematic advantage against you, but like, there's so much more
to coaching these days than just that, and I think
Penny Hardaway does everything else really well in terms of
like the guys he brings into the program, the fact
that he's loved in that city, gets his team motivated.
I see the chat talking about his record as an
underdog is very good. His teams always seem to get
up for the for the big game. I know that
wasn't the case over the weekend, but I didn't watch
a ton of that game. But I think Louisville didn't
miss against Memphis over the weekend to just.
Speaker 3: Blow them out of the gym.
Speaker 2: Going back to a point that you made, that that
would be my main concern here for Memphis, and that's
their inability to likely get a bunch of transition points
in this game. Vandy's just not going to turn the
ball over that there's such a good ball handling team
they don't turn it over. And if Memphis can't get
those like quick sort of I'll call them like athlete
points right where they're just like able to force a turnover,
get out and run and get an easy bucket. That way,
I think it's going to be very difficult for them
to beat Vanderbilt.
Speaker 3: So that's kind of where I'm at on this one.
I'm not going to say I agree with the move
all the way.
Speaker 2: Up to nine and a half. That's a pretty big number.
But I have my reasons as to why I don't
really want to punch back, and it really just comes
down to Vandy. There are efficiency on offense in the
fact that I don't think there's gonna be many easy
points here for Memphis.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would thoroughly agree. You know, Memphis just doesn't
have anything right now, and I get the schedule's been tough,
but they don't have any asset at them at this
point that they can hang their hat on. They really
have been terrific at anything, where Vanderbilt's been terrific at everything. Again,
that comment right there is what we spoke to earlier.
The only time they played away from home. Was against
UCF and UCF. We're not going to put in Memphis
category here, but Vandy did get one hundred and five
points in that game. A lot of neutrals, a lot
of homes. The trip again, we said it the other day,
this is even it was. I think Knoxville to Nashville,
Nashville to Memphis. It's a hike. It's not close, so
it certainly is a road game. Memphis will be fired up.
We'll see how this goes. If Memphis strength will schedule
has them prepped for this, but nobody seems to have
stopped Vandy from scoring right now. I wouldn't play against him.
Speaker 2: You know, I haven't been to a Memphis game yet,
but like my gut says that they don't have the
home court edge that some of these other teams do.
It's an NBA arena. I just like, you know, you
think that Vandy will have some fans there.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I my gut says that that is not the biggest
home court edge.
Speaker 3: I'm like a little bit less concerned.
Speaker 2: Whereas if Vandy was going to a weird gym or
like a much more hostile environment, I would probably say
that okay, well, yeah, that's first true road game. But yeah,
for some reason, and again I don't I can't speak
from personal opinion like I can at a lot of these,
But for some reason, I just I find myself not
giving as much of a bump for Memphis at home.
Maybe maybe it's the NBA arenas.
Speaker 1: It's certainly not Memorial Gym right where the coaches have
to try and shout to their teams ninety four feet away,
that that's a much bigger home floor advantage for Bandy.
Speaker 3: Really really good point.
Speaker 2: I wish I didn't lose the comment here because I
thought this was like a really good point. Someone in
the chat and I'll find it as I scrolled through says,
you know, fade some of these head fake moves. I've
seen more of that in college basketball than ever. It's
part of the reason personally, I'm like trying to bet
a little bit later in the day. I feel like
there's so much market manipulation going on in like the
first you know, overnight and then the first few.
Speaker 3: Hours of the day.
Speaker 2: Then I find myself like kind of wanting the market
to settle a little bit, and then if I miss
a number, I just I miss it.
Speaker 3: It is what it is.
Speaker 2: These games are so volatile as it is, it's like
I don't even really you know it like I'm having
less fomo than ever, rob as I guess what I'm saying.
And like, so yesterday being a perfect example, I ended
up on Canisius plus twenty two. It was everything else
sort of like moved out of range and Canisius was
an easy winner the day before with Houston Christian. I've
also been on a nice run of these like big underdogs.
So and if you're gonna play big double digit underdogs
more often than not, you don't want to play them early,
right because, like, especially during non conference play, the team
that's the name team is likely going to take.
Speaker 3: A little money at some point.
Speaker 2: And there was quite a few yesterday that cashed lipscum
Long Island at Evansville. That was one that got hit early,
never came back Canecious. So again it's just the the uh.
Jacob's comment just kind of you know, put that in
my head, like, yeah, I kind of agree with that,
and it's an interesting interesting stuff right there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting about that. Real quick, Adam, is
the first seven ten to fourteen days we did this show.
We were seeing moves of and I'll speak from totals
now six points, eight points, and these games were still
getting over or under whichever way the line moves, So
sides the end totals a little bit different with these
head fakeers. These totals move seemed to be absolutely on point,
but the side moves are different.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a really good point. Rob they're the totals.
Speaker 2: It's like, if you don't get your beat down and
it moves in the way that you wanted to move,
it's probably not coming back, Like you're probably not going
to get that number. Whereas I see a lot of
like what it feels like jockeying for position in the
market on the side where it's like it'll move, and
then four hours later it's back where it opened, maybe
even like has moved in the other direction. It's it's
a really good point. I'll read this comment here before
we move on.
Speaker 3: Trigger.
Speaker 2: You hit the nail right on the head. The early
runs on lines are setups later. It settles groups manipulating
things early. Yeah, I mean, it's harder to get down early.
So why would they want a lot Why would groups
trying to move significant money try to lock in their
position early.
Speaker 3: That doesn't make you know when they can't get as
much down.
Speaker 2: So I think you're seeing that more and ever, and
it's it's probably the moral of the story is, like,
you want to bet the game. You want to bet,
So if that means you have to get it in early,
then you want to get it in early. If that
means you have to get it in late, you want
to get it in late. I don't think you want
to like chase a move because something is moving, and
also it's probably gonna come back, like like, for example, yesterday,
if you were on the other side of me and
you like Georgia Tech, you know I got Marriston when
we did that. You know, that's another reason I used
Maris for the parlay. I disagreed with the move, knowing
that they were going to be without the guy I
thought they were going to be without. Seven and a
halfpened into being a good number. It went back down
to like six, but you know, you had multiple chances
to get Georgia Tech minus five and a half or
six yesterday.
Speaker 3: It's good. Uh, it's just a good conversation.
Speaker 2: Well, I know there's a trillion games today, so we'll
we'll talk about the you know what, we'll get back
into the game chat. Uh my segue here, Rob was
one NBA arena to to the to another, and so
we'll go to five serve forum here for Georgetown Marquette
in a game that feels like both teams, both teams,
it feels like both of these teams desperately need this game.
The team that doesn't get this game might might spiral
a little bit, right like just where they're they're at
in their seasons right now, specially Marquette. Marquette loses this
one at home, I don't know, they might. That's gonna
be tough to balance back from the market here, Rob
thinks Marqutte's gonna win this game three and a half
up to now, it looks like five and a half
some places.
Speaker 3: How do you see this when Georgetown Marquette.
Speaker 1: Yeah, at least early they think Marquett's gonna win this game,
right Adam, to the conversation we were just having, we
do see a surge on Marquette up to five and
a half here. Georgetown not the strongest schedule in the
world so far this season, but in a couple of
key games early Adam when we were kind of, you know,
touting maybe a good year for Georgetown. They did beat Maryland,
they did beat Clemson. Those are big wins. Marquette, on
the other hand, they've just been an absolute well. I
don't want to call them a disaster, but they're just
not good as of late. Buried by Wisconsin, buried by Purdue,
lose to Oklahoma, lose to Maryland, lose get buried by Indiana,
any good team they've played, lose to Dayton. They just
have not shown up against the better competition, which would
lead me to be on the Georgetown side. However, it
is conference season now, and sometimes things swing once conference
season begins. I don't know that Shaka Smart was playing
around with his or experimenting, evaluating so to speak, early on,
and these game results aren' indicative of what they'll be
throughout the conference season. But off of what I've seen,
off of what we can base a selection today on man,
I'd rather be on Georgetown, but larger than that, I'd
rather be on the total under in this game. Georgetown
is a team that's really not going to get up
and down, and Marquette is a team right now that
doesn't shoot the ball straight. It's really hard to handicap
a team to come out and do real well offensively
when they just haven't shown you that so far. Marquette,
for what it's worth, very very very uncharacteristic two hundred
and eighty fourth in the nation in effective field goal percentage.
You can't just can't trust the team that's going to
play a fairly good defensive team, even if they're at home,
to go up and score points. So you know, early
on Ken Palm when I saw these as I saw
his number before the openers came one point fifty, I thought, man,
that thing's got to be played under. I still think
I would lean that way. Aside, I'm not going to
get into here because I don't know. I mean, I
have a feeling mark it's just not going to be
good this year, but I don't know it for a
fact yet. And Georgetown has shown us a couple of
big time victories. So for me, it would be under
in this case. And under doesn't come out of my
mouth much, but I like it under in this one.
Speaker 2: So Shaka Smart has owned at Cooley since he since
he got to the Big East, whether it be Providence
or Georgetown, Smart has fared well. I had it written
down here six and two Big East matchups, So you know,
I don't know what there is if there's something to that.
You know, I know that Georgetown probably gets beat on
the glass here. That certainly helps Marquette, But for me personally,
I'm not I'm kind of with the chat where it's
like I'm not gonna lay five and a half with Marquette.
It would only I could only play back at that,
and I think that's the should be the probably the standard, right,
Like that's to me, Like, so I'll just talk like
I've had a I'm I have had a bad start
to the college basketball season, like from up to this point,
like I've had a couple of good days, but overall
it's been a bad start for me.
Speaker 3: Trying to turn that around.
Speaker 2: One thing I have not done and what you absolutely
cannot do, like listen, it's it's hard enough to win
doing this as it is, Like you can't put yourself
in a position where you lay five and a half
and lose when you could have had three and a half.
Speaker 3: Has not happened to me this year, Like I think
I've only.
Speaker 2: Been stuck with a bad number, maybe three or four
times over like more than one hundred bets and none
of those has cost me. And listen, you're not gonna
get the best number every single time. It's just impossible
almost to always just beat the marketer get the absolute
best number. But if you're doing it most of the times,
that's really what you want, and you can't. You just
have to move on. Now as I speak, Georgetown gets
hit and it's back to four and a half, and
it's like playing out on the show, like exactly what
we're talking about. If you like Marquette, I see that.
Oh no, I'm sorry, that was the wrong line line.
It was a different game, but there is still four
and a half. The point is like not even really
worth talking about Marquette at this point for me, because
there's no way I would ever lay minus five and
a half when I could have had the opener. So
I guess if you like the number, Georgetown, but there's
some matchup advantages here in my opinion for Marquette, and
the fact that that Shaka has done well against Cooley
is going to keep me off, especially with Marquette at
home in what feels like a big home spot for them.
Speaker 1: One thing I'll add real quick here, Adam is any
Shaka smart team thrives off of forcing turnovers, and Georgetown,
for what it's worth, has the second best turnover rate
in the country. They just don't turn the ball over.
And if you can't turn them over and Marquette can't
transition into easy points, any Shaka smart offense doesn't thrive
in that situation. They chuck a lot of threes, they
don't make a lot of threes. Fundamentally, they're just not
a good basketball team. How they perform once the conference
season starts, we'll see and maybe you know, in Ed
Cooley's defense, he's had providence in Georgetown, and really those
personnel matchups haven't stacked up in his favor against what
Shaka smartest had at Marquett. So we'll see if the
coaching edge continues. But I would think this game stays
under the number in this one.
Speaker 3: To carp corpse question.
Speaker 2: Quick, does public consensus of your effect you're handicapping for me?
Not really not at this point, the reason being, like now,
in football, it definitely I'll definitely take it into consideration
when I'm betting a football game because the handle is
so much bigger, right, So it's like when you're dealing
with like NFL type handle, then yeah, like you're gonna
have to start taking public perception into into the equation
because the line is going to be probably shaded more
so in that direction. I feel like March Madness, it
really starts to matter a little bit because those games
get football game type handles. But at this time of year,
like you know, public perception, I don't think it's going
to really have much bearing. And let's say Arkansas State,
Texas State, like you know something like that. What like
some of these other games, like they're just not getting
the handle in my opinion, to for the like the
public to really matter and the books if they get
burned on like the public like loading up on one
side and let's say Sianna Vermont like something that's on
extra board, they're they're just not taking enough money on
it for them to even care. So I would say
more to answer your question, No, unless it's like the
feature matchup where it's like a top ten matchup and
you know that every maybe it's like Big Monday rob right,
like where there's not many games and you've got this
like a big time standalone game out of like the
Big twelve and then like that's what everyone is looking
at for the night. Other than that, my answer to
that question is no, I don't know. If you want
to throw something on that too.
Speaker 1: I'll just say real quick as in every day better
for you know, I've been in this industry since nineteen
ninety two, so thirty three years worth of kind of
what you would call professional betting. And one thing I
had to learn at him was when you know and
every better who's in this three hundred and sixty five
days a year making wages, you run into a cold streak.
And one thing I had to learn is that when
you run cold, I would kind of start to be
affected by line most If I like the other side
and I see the game move, I'm like, damn, I'm
wrong again. But you have to learn in this business
that you have to thoroughly either trust your process what
you handicap the game to be and not again. I
learned a long time ago from a guy who told me,
if you play these line moves, you become a fifty
to fifty better. You've talked about market manipulation earlier in
this show. It really does go on. I don't pay
attention too much to consensus anymore. In fact, I'll tell
you what, on the odds services that we use, you
can always find eighty percent this, you know sixty five
percent that I don't even pay attention to those things that.
I don't know where those ticke accounts come from. I
don't know where that money handle comes from. Who's who's
being used to record that data, So I really don't
pay attention anymore whatsoever.
Speaker 3: All right, Garth, thank you for the donation. Much appreciated,
he says.
Speaker 2: Thoughts on the Northern Kentucky Oakland game, He's leaning northern
at home therefore, and against the spread at home. Garth,
I'm kind of with you here now. When I made
my numbers this morning, my number tilted toward Oakland a
little bit. But I think Oakland is going to have
a pretty key injury tonight that would like sort of
make me have to go back and figure out just
how many points I attribute to this person. And if
that's the case, I might be on Northern Kentucky with you.
I think it was minus I don't know if you
have a number for this one right there, Rob, but
I believe it was like one and a half earlier
when I saw this and I just want to you know,
so the.
Speaker 3: Just trying to find my injury notes are all over
the place.
Speaker 1: Real quick looking to open three minutes out to two
and a half.
Speaker 2: Okay, So I believe Northern Kentucky is a slight favorite,
right is that what you have right there?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 2: See, Now that makes sense like if there was no
injuries in this game, that move would make sense, Like
I I would if you were if Oakland plus three,
I would expect that to move back toward pick because
I think in most people's power ratings, you're probably almost
everyone's gonna have Oakland a little bit higher.
Speaker 3: I would say most people don't attribute.
Speaker 2: A ton of home court to Northern Kentucky, though Garth
makes a good point that they have they have covered
every spread at home this year. But it looks like
na Seme mesh Hour is going to be out for
Oakland And that was that was something I jotted down
as you know, being a being a pretty key injury
for them, one of their you know, six six kind
of I think he kind of plays at the three
a little bit. But you know, in in a game
that you got two teams that are kind of similar,
both like the both play zone both kind of like
I feel like they're almost somewhat not mirror images of
each other.
Speaker 3: But it's weird.
Speaker 2: A lot of those teams in the horizon are are
very constructed, very similar.
Speaker 3: I don't know what. I don't know what there is
to that.
Speaker 2: Maybe they all get together before the season they're like,
we're gonna build our teams all the same way. But
you know that to me, them having to go on
the road being down a starter, I kind of looked
at that game and said, Northern Kentucky, this is probably
a good spot for them to get another win, and
they have been good at home.
Speaker 3: So Garth, I'm I'm not gonna bet against you.
Speaker 2: Not something that's made in my card yet, but I
did have Northern Kentucky jotted down as an option, Rob,
Do you have anything side or total for Garth.
Speaker 1: I would agree with it Northern Kentucky for a couple
of reasons, and I would almost In fact, I've looked
at Northern Kentucky's team total here. It's interesting to me
that Darren Horn, a longtime college coach, has picked this
year to decide that he's going to run. Their tempo
numbers are way up this year, especially on the offensive end.
They go quick. There's some differences here though. Northern Kentucky
very good at forcing turnovers. Oakland does not force turnovers
wellten talk about Greg Campy and these funky types of
zones that he'll throw at teams. All that aside, they
haven't stopped anybody from shooting well this year. They give
up threes, they give up twos. Where Northern Kentucky's at
at least they force turnovers, the other side does not.
You're at home, you can force some turnovers. It's going
to be a fast paced game. And the last thing
I'll say here is when you were talking about these
two teams playing zone. Teams get off shots very very
quickly against Oakland, which plays into Northern Kentucky's hands. They
want to get up and down the floyd. They want
to shoot quick, they want to score quick and k you.
On the other hand, they slow people down. The transition
defense has to be very very solid if you believe
any analytical numbers which say that they force teams into
the three hundred and forty fourth slowest average length of possession.
So you come down against your Oakland, you come down
against Northern Kentucky. There might not be a lot of
quick easy looks. There will be on the other side.
The other side forces turnovers, they shoot it well. A
lot of the offensive numbers are mirror images. I don't know,
you're at home only laying two and a half. To me,
it seems like Darren Horn unlike a lot of coaches
that will take their personnel and jam the square peg
into the round hole because they play a certain way.
It seems like Darren Horne has taking this personnel and
play to their strengths and going with an up tempo
style this year. So I would like that side under
a three pointer only laying two and a half. I
also think their team total might get up and over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the player in question of Nash got hurt
in the game. So I actually had Oakland two games
ago when they played Toledo, and I think he got
hurt around the six minute mark or that's when he
maybe left the game. I don't think Oakland got to
stop the rest of the game. Somehow they won ninety
eight ninety seven. It was a crazy game, but they
Toledo just made every shot they got whenever they wanted,
and that's like not really characteristic toward you know, to
that Oakland team and the next timeout. Last time out
for them without him was probably their worst probably their
worst game. Well, I would say losing to Eastern Michigan
is probably worse. But just sixty three points against Northern
Iowa last time out. So Garth, I'm not I'm not
going to disagree with you. I think you're probably looking
at the right side with Northern Kentucky right there. Oh,
I got a We'll get to a couple here. So Steve,
I'm gonna go to this one first. He says, Well, Shase, Steve,
I'll come back to your other one. But I see
you agreeing. So Shane says, Arizona State plus eight and
a half is a lock is a look? Sorry, Yeah,
we don't say lock on the show, Rob, nothing's a lock.
We know that is a look.
Speaker 3: I watched every.
Speaker 2: Possession of that UCLA gon Zaga game over the weekend,
and there was UCLA playing more zone. I thought they
might do that. I had UCLA plus ten in that game.
I ended up pushing. I felt like I felt like
I deserved to win. I feel like if they knocked
down a free throw or two at the end, they're
going to cover that ten they came back to, I believe,
take a lead, tied or in the lead with like
maybe ten minutes to go in that game. Point is,
I feel like this sort of zone that Mick Cronin
has now played pretty much since the Washington game is.
Speaker 3: Been good for them.
Speaker 2: I worked against Oregon, worked against Washington, and it really
like did work against Gonzaga, even though they lost the
game by ten, Like they for the most part held
their own with Gonzaga and you know, got enough stops
to get back in the game. And that game, like listen,
Donovan Dent missed like five file shots, Billy Doo missed
a file shot.
Speaker 3: Like the way that game played out at the.
Speaker 2: End was just you know, a couple possessions here there,
Gonzaga hits a big shot and suddenly they're up ten.
The point is, I was very impressed with UCLA, and
I look at this Arizona State team and think that, like,
if UCLA comes out and plays defensively they have the
last couple of games, plays like they did against Gonzaga,
goes to that zone and forces Arizona State to shoot
a lot of outside shots and threes that that's a
favorable situation for UCLA. So the number might feel big,
but I actually would look the other way. I'd be
looking at the Bruins right here, and I may lay
it with the Bruins because I just think that if
if Arizona can't solve this sort of new zone that
they're playing, that might be a double digit Ruins win.
How are you seeing Ucla Arizona State tonight, Robin.
Speaker 1: Well, I'll say this as somebody as well who saw
the Gonzaga Ucla game the other day. The problem for UCLA,
obviously was the Gonzaga bigs. E k went crazy in
that game. Huff was very good as well. They just
couldn't handle him. And on the other side, maybe Billadeau
missed a free throw, but Billadeau was keeping them in
the game for quite a while, hitting threes, scoring like crazy.
He was upset a couple times when he thought he
was fouled. Maybe, so they played well enough. To your point,
they were in that game almost the entire way, and
Gonzaga stretched it out in the end to get that
ten point victor. I think it was even more than ten.
At one point. Ucla knocked it down a little bit
but I still don't We've talked about him a lot,
Donovan Dent. I still don't think he's being utilized the
right way on this team. You have to let him
at Billadeau. To me, in that game, Tyler Biladot just
needed somebody to help, and we'll see if that develops
with UCLA. But the point here is that I don't
think they're gonna have Arizona State's got size in that
starting front line, but it's not e K and Huff.
Those two guys are pretty special offensively, and I don't
see that from Arizona State. ASU has been a solid
three point shooting team for most of the season. I think,
in my opinion, that Mick Cronin and his defense can
handle that a lot better than if you're gonna destroy
them on the interior. So maybe Arizona State's style plays
into UCLA's hands a little bit. I would say I
don't trust their offense enough to lay it with them
at this point in time. I really need to see
a secondary scorer here that's gonna come through night and
night out. Billadoh is without question the lead guy on
this team, so we'll see. I think it might be
too much for me to lay. I certainly don't want
to take it because I don't think Arizona State has
the assets that Gonzaga had on the interior, and Gonzaga
had a rough time on their home floor with the
UCLA could get high scoring here, Adham, we'll see. I
mean Mick Cronin is known for defense. Bobby Hurley's team
pushes pace and shoots street we'll see. But I don't
have a real good feel side or total here.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I went back to my notes and had Maui rims
with a question mark next to Arizona State being the
twenty second rank three point shooting team in the country
thirty nine point two percent. Of course, they had the
benefit of playing three games out in Maui where every
shot went in, So you know, do what you will
with that, I would agree. So, first of all, great
point on Ek. Not only did he I mean he
was making impossible shots. Guys are hanging on him in
the lane and he was like finishing high off the
glass with two dudes hanging on him. It was like
he closed out that game for Gonzaga, like so impressive.
And you know, I think the final score is deceiving
right there. I felt like Ucla pretty much hung with
them every step of the way.
Speaker 3: Uh yeah.
Speaker 2: For whatever reason, Cronin wants Donovan Dent to be like
a point guard, like a true point guard, and that's like,
I don't think that that's his bet. Like I think
you just have to let him ball out, like kind
of like New Mexico did where it was like, you know,
you give him the give him free rate, just let
him go do whatever he wants like that. That's how
he's going to be at his best. But you know,
last game ten assists. That's great, but kind of like
you're saying, I don't think. I don't think they're getting
the full Donovan Dent experience right now, which is a problem.
You made Another point that I think is probably what
decides this game and what also would tilt it into
the favor of you know, Ucla, is that like right now,
Ucla can't rebound at all, like if you And that's
another area where Gonzaga just ended up asserting themselves and
pushing that lead out to ten. Ucla can't get a
bull to save their lives, and neither can Arizona State.
So it's like if Arizona State can't take advantage of
what's clearly UCLA's biggest weakness right now, that's.
Speaker 3: A little bit of a concern to me.
Speaker 2: But the great equalizer there might be the point spread,
rob and so who knows. Eight and a half definitely
a bigger number, but I don't know. I'm a I'm
still a believer in this UCLA team and it probably
more than probably more than most. And it looks like
this is another one that open nine and a half,
down to eight and a.
Speaker 3: Half coming back to nine places, so we will see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick time, right, Adam. I don't know who
the analyst might have been Don McClain that night, I
forget who it was, but he actually made the point
to what you were saying. Says, you know what mc
cronin wants for Christmas right now? He wants a defensive rebound.
They could not get one in that game. It was crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you could argue that like the playing that
zone makes it a little bit tougher to get rebounds,
like it's gonna be harder for them to rebound out
of his own but it's yeah, that should be I'll
tell you what, that that team should be a lot
better than they are but I always think Cronin is
slow rolling everyone with the way he complains and the
way he's like, you know, it's like it's like, I
want to know how much of this is like an
act goes in. He's like, we just don't, you know,
So you bring up his quotes all the time.
Speaker 3: They're out of control.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, part of he thinks it's like,
you know, he's putting on a show, kind of like
last year.
Speaker 3: But who knows.
Speaker 2: All right, Steve, I'll go we'll talk about this one
huge game for Sianna tonight. I can't remember the last
time that they sort of had a non conference game
of this magnitude.
Speaker 3: Uh, probably because.
Speaker 2: They haven't really been good in a while, like this good.
I think nine and two is their best start in
best start through eleven games and in a very long time.
I don't have the you know and say, you got
to take some of that with a grain of salt,
like there was there was better Sienna teams that just
played some Power Conference teams early and didn't start nine
and two. But the Saints nine and two, I was
their two losses on the road to Saint Bonaventure, which
is like not a bad loss, and they lost their
their big to a concussion in that game and they
really needed him in that game. And then the game
I went to earlier this year where Cox from Colgate
banged a fifty footer to win at the buzzer from
half court. The only two losses for Cienna this year. Now,
you could argue that the schedule has been quite easy
of late, a bunch of games that they should have
won and did either at home or down in DC
as part of like an MTE. So there's those two things.
Vermont is probably their toughest opponent, no, not, probably Vermont
is their toughest opponent since the Colgate Bonaventure games were
back to back earlier this year. I can tell you
from experience that Burlington is a very tough place to
go and play and get a win. I can also
tell you that Sienna is getting healthy. They should have
Tasman Goodrick back here. And Riley Mulvey, who was the
was the seven footer that they got from Iowa a
little gift from Fran McCaffrey. He's a local guy that
went to play for Fran and when Fran went to
Penn they kind of worked it out. So he could
come home and finish his career at Sienna. He was
the guy that got concussed in that Bonaventure game, and
that's where Bonaventure crushed Sienna was at the Rim. They
really needed him in that game. He's going to travel.
I don't know if he's going to play tonight or not,
but the fact that he's making the trip is encouraging.
And the other thing is, I mean, Vermont is probably
not gonna test you at the Rim like a team
like Saint Bonaventure would. And you know, Kasma good Rick,
he actually did come back for the Niagara.
Speaker 3: And Kenisi's games played limited minutes.
Speaker 2: But if he's back to his full sort of like
thirty minutes a game, he's gonna be one of the
better players in the conference this year. So all of
those things make me think that there's a positive outlook
here for Sienna. But this is still Vermont. It's still
in Burlington, and that's still a very good Vermont team.
So Steve, I don't know, this is a tough This
is a.
Speaker 3: As a fan.
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't wait to watch this game, but man,
I don't know if I I don't know if I
want to go against Vermont on their home court, small gym,
should be a great atmosphere. The locals come out for
that team, so even if the kids aren't there, it
doesn't matter. I've been to Vermont games middle of December
before it'll be It'll be all locals, So should be
a good one tonight. Steve says, Vermont eight and zero
against Sienna, Maybe maybe a pass. Yeah, they they have
owned Sienna, but to Vermont's credit, they almost always have
a better like They're almost always favored, so this might
be one of the better chances Sianna's had to get
a win over them in recent years.
Speaker 3: I wish I had more.
Speaker 2: I feel like anything else that comes out of my
mouth right now, Rob might be a little bit biased.
So I'm gonna go to you and see you if
you have an unbiased take in this Vermonciana game.
Speaker 1: I don't have an unbiased take, but at ten forty two,
I'm gonna go ahead and get my parlay leg out
of the way here, Adam. Unfortunately for us here it
does appear as if I'm having a little difficulty with
the current odds screen. See if I could pull it up.
But my choices were plenty today of which game, But
I really wanted to state the obvious and place South
Florida Alabama over the total to Alabama, and obviously Nat
Oates probably wants to put the assistant Bryan Hodgson in
his place. I could see it happening. There's been some
movement towards South Florida. Second look was towards the Cincinnati
team total for what it's worth against Alabama State shook
that off and went with one of the highest ones
on the board. But I can see will Wade and
company putting one hundred on Texas Southern tonight. Texas Southern again.
We talked about Johnny Jones, and we talked about a
lot of swack teams that just played these ridiculously hard
non conference roads schedules. Johnny Jones, to me, seems like
he was the inventor of this. His team paying the price,
obviously in a big way, just getting slammed every time
they take the floor against teams gave up one on
nine to Vanderbilt, just recently gave up eighty nine to
Nico Meddad's Minnesota team lose by thirty six in that
one come that came off the heels of a couple
of home games and back to the road here for
NC State, and you have to tread somewhat lightly and
treat these as situational games. For NC State, there's a
game with Mississippi on deck, which could be taken a
lot more seriously than this one is going to be taken. However,
NC State's also off of that overtime lost to Kansas
where Will Wade's not a guy to play thirty six
minutes and take the foot off the gas. Their team
total here is ninety six and a half. I need
ninety seven to win this one. I'm pretty positive they're
going to hang one hundred on Texas Southern here, which
is really defenseless to stop NC State in anything they
want to do offensively. And what makes it worse is
that team's average possession length against Texas Southern. It's the
second fastest tempo in the country. That's exactly what NC
State wants to do upscore. I could consider isolating it,
Adam and trying to play a first half team total
with NC State. I'm not going to argue anybody off
of that. If you fear that NC State's going to
let off the gas last six to seven minutes of
the game and put the reserves in and maybe not
score as much. That's certainly a route to go. Those
numbers aren't as readily available. Otherwise I would probably use that.
Like for myself, i'd probably bet that, But for purposes
of the show and numbers that are universally available, I'm
going to play NC State team total over ninety six
and a half. We're going to need ninety seven to
get there. But again, it looks like a game where
Will Wade's team is going to get to one hundred
and maybe they get free pizza or donuts or hot
dogs down there and Raleigh if the team gets to
one hundred, I'm not sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, pree cookout maybe Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, that
was sorry. I just want to make sure I got
the number right. So you're going NC State team total
and what was the number you got it at again?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: Ninety six and a.
Speaker 3: Half minus one ten on that.
Speaker 1: I think it was even juice to the under Adam.
Let me just the screen has just come back up
for me. It was down for a second. So this
number currently sits. This is an early game NC State
to the added board. Actually, because it's Texas Southern. Yet
ninety six and a half. The consensus number is minus
one ten, so we can roll with that.
Speaker 3: Yep, all right, ninety six and a half. NC State
putting it on Texas Southern, can't. I have nothing really
to add. I wouldn't.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't fade will Wade in this kind of spot
at home, just like, you know, running it up on
a team that he can run it up on, especially
the way this season is gone, where you know, it
feels like he could kind of use one of those
at this point. Going back to that Siana game for
a second, I mean, listen it, Vermont doesn't.
Speaker 3: Their home court.
Speaker 2: Edge is not big enough for this to just steam
into oblivion like if CIA. I mean, I see Siana
plus three someplaces. I don't think Vermont is better than
Sienna this year. I want, I want to make that
point very clear. I would say that these two teams
are probably pretty equal right now. I think Vermont is
the best team in the America East and what is
going to be a down America East this year. So
remember go back to last year, like Vermont took a
pretty big step back last season, and I so my
gut tells me that they are the best of a
worst group this year, and.
Speaker 3: They maybe get a little love for that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, if that's going to keep steaming,
I'll take a stand and say, like I would punch
back as soon as Sianna three or better is probably
a decent bet there, because those two teams are I
wouldn't say Vermonta's is better than Sienna this year. I
think they're pretty even. Both have redeeming qualities and good
rick back and being healthy is massive for Sienna. So
but I'm not gonna put that in the parlay. I
will find I'll find something else. We still have twelve minutes.
I'm kind of mulling over, like what I want to
use to the parlay leg I'm walking stuff in later
by design. Right now it's worked for me. So I
don't have any client plays locked in just yet. That's
why I don't have a client play to give you
just yet.
Speaker 3: But I'll you know, we got ten more minutes.
Speaker 2: I'll have one. Uh, I'll have one ready to go.
Let's see, let's go back to let's go back to
the chat.
Speaker 3: Actually, this is this is an intriguing game.
Speaker 2: I feel like we should hit another big East contest
Xavier Creighton. A couple of weeks ago, Rob I would
have said, oh, these two teams, they're both both a disaster.
Speaker 3: Like I want no part of either.
Speaker 2: But I've got to be honest, I'm kind of impressed
with what Richard Patino has done of late.
Speaker 3: I feel like he.
Speaker 2: Is from where Xavier was the first couple of weeks
of the season to what they've looked like the last
couple of times out Like, just tip the cap to
Richard Patino. I feel like he's come a long way
with this team already in a year where it's kind
of known, like he you know that they don't have
a ton of talent, Like I feel like he's almost eluded,
you know, alluded to it being more of a rebuilding year.
But I'm almost willing to say Xavier is a little
bit of ahead of schedule at this point all of
a sudden, you know, when they're they're with the way
they've played the last month, and Creighton is I don't know, man,
the Creighton could be bad, Like they could just be bad.
Speaker 3: They they they've looked awful. So Creighton Xavier believe this
is at centas center. What do you make of this matchup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think honestly that they haven't gotten beyond I'm
speaking of Creighton here. They haven't gotten beyond the losses
of Calkbrenner and Ashworth, the two who carried the team
last year right point guard and center. It's like coach
McDermott just can't find solid replacements, or at least I
shouldn't say solid, because those guys were I mean Calbrenners
in the NBA contributing. Ashworth was an excellent college point guard,
ball handling and three point shooting, et cetera. They just
haven't found those elements yet. Where As you said, we
have talked about Xavior quite a bit on this show,
and Richard Patino has made headway with this team. To
win over Cincinnati was big, the win over West Virginia
was big. The close call with Georgia. I remember we
had that team total for Georgia in the parlay that night,
that fifty two and a half or something crazy. And
Xavier played came out and played excellent d in the
second half. So they've certainly made their way through. It's
hard to back crating at this point in time. Again,
I think that the head coach here is still trying
to find the right pieces in the right place, the
right rotations, etc. Where I think you said that maybe
Patino's a little ahead of schedule. Right here, I can
go along with that. For Creighton, I just want to
point out some numbers. What's generally a great shooting team,
And it looks to me, Adam, that the Oregon game
becomes more of a mirage than reality for Creighton. Again,
it was a tournament game where you're playing a bunch
of games in a very few days.
Speaker 2: Oh, those those shouldn't even count. Syracuse has lost to
Iowa State, shouldn't count. Yeah, that was ridiculous. Same same
thing for the great and Oregon game.
Speaker 1: And so if you if you erase that from their
ledger this year, you don't find much to stand on.
And the point I really want to make is Creighton
generally you can count on them as an efficient offensive team,
and it's just not the case this year. Just not
efficient from anywhere. Xavier three and a half point favorite.
It seems weird to see them in a favorite role
in a Big East game this quickly, but the change
has been rapid, So I could only look at Xavier
in this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think That's probably the one thing that's maybe
off putting is like, Okay, you know the pendulum has
maybe has it swung too far. Now suddenly Xavier is
going to have to lay multiple possessions. You know, Xavier
kind of had if you look at their season to
this point. The Santa Clara game was the one like
if you're like a Xavier fan or supporter, you look
at and you're just like, I can't believe we got
run out of our own gym. I think the game
was like a pick maybe like minus one minus two
got absolutely destroyed by Santa Clara. The following game, they
lost to Iowa, but that final score is deceiving. They
played long stretches of that game that were like pretty impressed,
Like the Xavier looked much better even though they ended
up losing by nineteen on the road to Iowa, Like
not a huge deal in my opinion, I was very
good since then the only loss was the Georgia game,
which might as well be a win, right, Like there
were ten I think there were a ten and a
half point underdog. They end up losing a game by one.
Terrific game, neutral court turn around and knock off West
Virginia a couple days later. So it's like, you know,
I got to win over Cincinnati, destroyed Missouri State last
time out. There's no basketball reason here for me to
like Creighton or to like Creyton.
Speaker 3: It would happen to be Xavier.
Speaker 2: I'm just like wondering, is like, is this where like
Creighton was there like one effort and you just, you know,
kind of catch the bad spot because Xavier's played so
well the last few games. But that Lamoyne game, in
that Maris game still happened this season, right, So it's
almost like you have to like know that they could
have one of those in them. I think that's ultimately
why I won't lay multiple possessions. But we could be
on the show twenty four hours from now being like, man,
Xavier was just that was easy, right, Like it feels
like right now they are playing so much better that
how could you.
Speaker 3: Pass them up on their home floor here?
Speaker 1: But as we know, I'll just say yeh, as we know,
it could change in a minute. I just want to
add one last thing here real quick, because we talked
the beginning of the season when they added the Iowa
transfers Josh Dixon Owen Freeman to this IOWA team. Remember
Owen Freeman was hurt for Iowa last year. It cost
them dearly because he was such an integral part of
that team. He's done nothing for It's almost as if
they don't know how to use him. I expected him
to be some type of offensive force now that he's healthy,
and it hasn't worked out. So again, coach McDermott has
some personnel things that they just haven't worked out yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's times I'll point back to their there.
They played a couple of Summit League teams earlier in
the year got totally like I think I think it
was a South Dakota like be like crushed him on
the glass like that. Those are just things that you
would never expect the creating teams of the last few
years to ever have those types of issues, right just
like and so yeah, you're talking about kalk Burner generational
talent for them when it will go down as one
of the best players in the history of the program.
Ashworth was fantastic since he showed up there. So yeah,
this could be a transition type year. It is a
transition type year because Alan huss is going to be
that coach, right, So it's like, you know, is this
is this the kind of wheels fall off type thing?
And then it's McDermott kind of steps away, and then
Husk gets to sort of, you know, build a team
the way he wants to the next year. Who knows,
but uh, yeah, I couldn't take Creighton here. It would
have to be xavier a pass. All right, We've got
about five minutes left. I guess I have to Uh,
I guess I have to take a stand here, rob
and lock this.
Speaker 3: Uh this parlay down. I'm gonna you know what I'm
gonna take. I'm gonna take. I'm gonna lay the eight
and a half with UCLA. I have not played it
for clients.
Speaker 2: Yet, but I I really think that they're I'm just
a believer in Cronin. I think he makes I think
he comes out and make things, makes things seem so
much worse than they are. This is still a team.
Donovan Dent is still gonna be a really good player.
I know they are. They're still figuring out how to
use him. But I mean there was times last year
during his tenure at New Mexico where he's straight up
just took over a game like that's going to happen
at some point. Donovan Dent didn't just get worse, right, Like,
he's not a worse. He didn't just magically become worse.
He's just trying to figure out where he fits in
into what's much more of a system than playing for
Richard Patino at New Mexico was where he just had
basically free reign to pull up from thirty, you know,
driving to the lane into three guys and just make
a play. And he doesn't have that freedom at UCLA.
But it doesn't mean that they're not going to figure
that out. You talked about Bill Adu. He was dealing
with injury at one point. He certainly seemed back against Gonzaga.
I like the zone. I think it's going to, you know,
kind of present some challenges for Arizona State in this matchup.
And I don't think Arizona State, even though they are
a good three point shooting team, is going to be
a top twenty three point shooting team this year. Like
I looked at that roster, I don't know that they've
got the shooters to stay in the top twenty five
nationally three point shooting. I think some of that was
those nice, soft, friendly rims in Maui. I don't know
if the rims at Pauly Pavilion are quite as friendly.
So this ticked down. I didn't really agree with that
move down to eight and a half, So I'm gonna
lay it with UCLA. I was very impressed with them
against Gonzaga, and I think they I just think they're
better and I think their defense can put the clamps
on mootum and if they can do that, Arizona State
might have a hard time scoring and you might see
UCLA pull away. So we'll we'll go Ucla minus eight
and a half for the parlat.
Speaker 1: I will say I happened to catch that one game
on the neutral where Moe Odem just went absolutely berserk.
I forget who it was against, but he had you know,
yeah it.
Speaker 3: Was in now Robert.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm I might be shooting fifty percent from
three at matt and now the way some of those
shots were going in like tech, Like I lost one
of the Maui Invitational games. I think Texas hits like
sixteen or seventeen threes, Like what is what has Texas
done since that tournament?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: Like I just every shot going in. See Seaton Hall
couldn't miss a shot. I mean that team, like you know,
it's it's just so I wondered, you know, you played
three games there and you're playing three against quality competition, listen,
Like that might inflate your profile a little bit. And
Arizona State played extremely well during their time at that tournament.
So I just think Arizona State's a little bit inflated,
and I think they run I still think UCLA is legit,
even though they maybe haven't been to this point. If
you're going on the road and you run into a
legit team like UCLA and they play the way that
they're supposed to play, I feel like this could be
a double digit final.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll lay it with the Bruins real quick.
Speaker 1: Just to give you the numbers fast before mo Odam
made fifteen threes in that tournament, he's made five since.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's I mean, I mean, he's a he's a
really good player, but he's not like he's not JJ Reddick,
like he's not like he's not just someone that's gonna
like be bombs away from thirty four like you know
three and just eviscerate you from three. So again, I
just think that there's a some of those numbers are
a little skewed, and I actually think that this will
likely move back to where it opened, might even see
get to ten. So because right now on the show
we're locking this in, I can see uh uh, we'll
call it eight and a half. Ski Ski prop and says,
I haven't seen Trig Hoop. I've seen Rob Hoop.
Speaker 3: Ski.
Speaker 2: I I'm a nightmare to play against. I'll go out
and defend you in a pickup game like it's game seven.
Probably not gonna make many shots, but you want me
on your pickup team and everyone will be pissed at me.
That's that's the kind of that's the kind of guy
I am. I'm a soccer player playing basketball, So think
of that. I played soccer and I'm like, I don't
have a ton of skill, but I'll just sit there
and be I'll be on you like glue in a
pickup game and you'll be like, get this guy out
of here, get him out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll have six follows in five minutes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah right probably yeah.
Speaker 2: No. I I I played in like an adult league
for a minute, and that was always an issue when
they actually counted fills.
Speaker 3: That was that was a problem.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but all right, guys, it's it's time. We'll be
back tomorrow more full court press. Just to recap the parlay,
Rob is gonna go NC State team total over ninety
six and a half. I'm gonna go Ucla minus eight
and a half, little two teamer.
Speaker 3: Hopefully another parlay win.
Speaker 2: We had one on Monday, and we'll be back in
the morning for more full court press. Take care everyone,
We'll see you guys then