Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex July twenty first, twenty twenty six. By
Speaker 1: the end of this episode, you'll know why the regulatory
Speaker 1: ice might finally be cracking and why this market bounce
Speaker 1: deserves a skeptical eye. Grab your coffee. Let's talk through
Speaker 1: the day like we're catching up. But first a quick
Speaker 1: word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening. Clarity
Speaker 1: Act odds hit forty three percent on polymarket. Bitcoin ETFs
Speaker 1: flowed five days straight. Fear and Greed at twenty five
Speaker 1: extreme fear markets were pretty quiet on price today. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: held around sixty six thousand, but nothing moved more than
Speaker 1: a few percent. The real story was sentiment. The Fear
Speaker 1: and Greed index sat at twenty five, which means we're
Speaker 1: still in extreme fear. Stable Coin supply was flat at
Speaker 1: around three hundred and eight billion, so no fresh cash
Speaker 1: flooded in. And keep in mind we're still in a
Speaker 1: bear market, down forty seven percent from the highs. Why
Speaker 1: this matters. It tells us this bounce is more of
Speaker 1: a relief rally than a full blown recovery. Privacy infrastructure
Speaker 1: is the strongest narrative today, up only a little over
Speaker 1: seven days chain Link is the top coin in that sector,
Speaker 1: up a few percent over seven days. Money is moving
Speaker 1: across sectors, not one pocket. Oil led the major macro
Speaker 1: assets this week, up about five percent, which means oil
Speaker 1: prices often signal what's coming for inflation, and inflation expectations
Speaker 1: directly shape interest rates, dollar strength, and overall market liquidity.
Speaker 1: Those three forces still drive crypto's biggest swings. The move
Speaker 1: likely reflects tighter growth or supply expectations, though we'd want
Speaker 1: to see inventory data to be sure. If this kind
Speaker 1: of macro read helps you position, we go further in
Speaker 1: the monthly playbook. The full macro regime walkthrough and what
Speaker 1: it means for your crypto allocation is in the Monthly playbook.
Speaker 1: Alpha trial at tokenmetrics dot com. The Clarity Act just
Speaker 1: got new life after polymarket odds jumped to forty three
Speaker 1: percent on reports of an ethics deal. Why this matters,
Speaker 1: Washington is finally moving on crypto regulation. The bill would
Speaker 1: give the SEC and CFTC clear lanes, ending the is
Speaker 1: it a security guessing game that's kept big money on
Speaker 1: the sidelines? If this passes, it's the difference between crypto
Speaker 1: as a casino and crypto as plumbing. Watch this. If
Speaker 1: the Senate schedules a vote by Friday, the regulatory overhang
Speaker 1: lifts and big investors can stop waiting for more clarity.
Speaker 1: If the deal falls apart, expect the same stale uncertainty
Speaker 1: excuse for another quarter. Galaxy committed up to five million
Speaker 1: dollars to prep Bitcoin for a quantum computing threat, which
Speaker 1: means they're funding mitigation now because quantum computers could crack
Speaker 1: Bitcoin's signature scheme in a decade. It's like installing storm
Speaker 1: shutters before the hurricane. Watch early, boring and smart. The
Speaker 1: network doesn't need it today, but the prep work signals
Speaker 1: real maturity. If other majors like block or micro Strategy
Speaker 1: announce similar funds within thirty days, quantum resistance becomes a
Speaker 1: sector priority. If it's a one off, it stays a footnote.
Speaker 1: World Coins token jumped eight percent on a Grayscale ETF filing.
Speaker 1: The takeaway is that Grayscale is following the same playbook
Speaker 1: they use with Solana and Ethereum. Build the product before
Speaker 1: approval for a token tied to privacy questions and identity verification,
Speaker 1: and ETF would bring institutional eyes without the complicated retail onboarding.
Speaker 1: We'll walk through the details in the show notes. It
Speaker 1: also shows grayscale is widening the alt ETF net beyond
Speaker 1: the Big two. If the SEC acknowledges the filing within
Speaker 1: forty five days, world coin's liquidity profile changes permanently. If
Speaker 1: it's ignored, like past alt etf bids, the pop fades.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin e tfs posted a fifth straight day of inflows,
Speaker 1: the first streak like that since April, which means five
Speaker 1: days of green is the kind of streak that makes
Speaker 1: people forget bear markets exist. But remember we're still down
Speaker 1: forty seven percent from the highs, so this is a
Speaker 1: bear market bounce until proven otherwise. Inflows are the only
Speaker 1: real demand signal, right, and they're finally showing up. If
Speaker 1: the streak hits ten days with bitcoin holding above sixty
Speaker 1: six thousand, the bear thesis weakens it flows reversed by Wednesday,
Speaker 1: it was just month end window dressing. Robin Hood's Robinhood
Speaker 1: chain topped four hundred and thirty million in total value,
Speaker 1: locked with real world assets, called the key differentiator. Why
Speaker 1: this matters, Robinhood building a layer two isn't about trading memes.
Speaker 1: It's about tokenizing real world assets for everyday users. Falcon
Speaker 1: X says real world assets are the edge, and a
Speaker 1: brokerage with twenty million users shipping a chain is a
Speaker 1: totally different beast than a crypto native layer two. This
Speaker 1: is traditional finance dipping its toes into decentralized finance infrastructure,
Speaker 1: not the other way around. If Robinhood chain total value
Speaker 1: locked doubles to eight hundred and sixty million in sixty days,
Speaker 1: real world assets on retail rails is real. If it stalls,
Speaker 1: it's just another branded chain that nobody builds on. All Right,
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to wash for. First,
Speaker 1: sentiment versus price divergence fear and greed at twenty five
Speaker 1: while bitcoin rally is about two percent, which means scared
Speaker 1: buyers are chasing a bounce that could easily fake out. Second,
Speaker 1: regulatory Wildcard Clarity Act odds at forty three percent are
Speaker 1: report driven and unverified. A collapse deal could yank the
Speaker 1: only positive narrative. Third, the synthesis, buyers are nibbling because
Speaker 1: ETF flows turn positive, but sentiment is still scared and
Speaker 1: liquidity is flat. The takeaway is that the market is
Speaker 1: waiting for a catalyst to confirm this isn't just a
Speaker 1: dead cap bounce. That changes if the Clarity Act passes
Speaker 1: a Senate vote and stable coin supply grows for three
Speaker 1: straight days. First, the Clarity Act Senate push happens this week.
Speaker 1: Why this matters fix language agreed moves the bill toward
Speaker 1: a vote, and passing would lift the regulatory overhang for
Speaker 1: institutional capital. Second, the UK Crypto Banking Inquiry is ongoing
Speaker 1: this week. The parliamentary probe could force banks to service
Speaker 1: crypto firms, easing access friction. Third, a Bitcoin range breakout
Speaker 1: attempt to set for the next seven days. Institutions and
Speaker 1: options traders piling in could confirm sixty six thousand as
Speaker 1: support or fail into bear market resistance. Watch whether the
Speaker 1: Clarity Act clears a Senate vote this week, as persistent
Speaker 1: Bitcoin etf inflows with fear and greed under thirty would
Speaker 1: signal a regulatory lead relief. Rally. For those of you
Speaker 1: who are serious about your portfolio, Token Metrics Roundtable gives
Speaker 1: you private AI portfolio reviews, live monthly discussions, and everything
Speaker 1: in our alpha plan. Head to Tokenmetrics dot com to
Speaker 1: see if it's a fit. This is educational content, not
Speaker 1: investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex, see
Speaker 1: you next time.