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Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right

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podcast where we talk to our friend and sponsor of

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the show, Zach Abraham from Bulwart Capital Management, and today

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we are going to talk about a little component of

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the one big, beautiful bill that recently just passed and

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that Trump signed, and it included this little provision where

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every baby born between twenty twenty five and twenty twenty

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eight gets a thousand dollars Trump account set up by

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the federal government. And what the projections are, at least

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according to Fortune magazine, are that if parents chip in

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a little bit, maybe a few hundred bucks a month,

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that over time, assuming the market does what the market

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does when it behaves, that could potentially grow into like

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one hundred grand by the time these kids reach twenty

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one years of age, and maybe even as much as

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two million dollars by retirement. Are those figures accurate.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they are. And it's it's like, behold the power

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of compounded interest, right, So they are in Compounded interest

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is a really interesting thing because, you know, you think

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it's just kind of basic mathematics, everybody can understand it.

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But there's been like behavioral studies done on this that

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the human brain has a very hard time comprehending compounded.

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Speaker 3: My brain on the problem.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, no, I I well I most people do.

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Most people do, because it's just we live in a

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linear world, and you're right, it grows exponentially and it

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just kind of throws you off. But I mean, if

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you think about this, so you know, if you gain

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seven percent a year, get your money doubles in like

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tenure in ten years. On thought, if you crank that

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up to like I believe, right around ten percent a year,

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I believe you're doubling your money every six and a

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half years something like that. Seven years. No, it's yeah'd

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it'd be seven years. Yeah, because a rule ten, So

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flip it around, yeah, seven years. You know, if you

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start looking at fifteen percent, it's more like five years,

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four and a half, five, five, five and a half

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years somewhere in there. And so you start, you start.

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It's like the old adage. You know, this one always

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blows people's mind. Okay, if I give you, you've got

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two choices over the next thirty days, I'm going to

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give you a million dollars or I'm going to give

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you on day one one penny and we're going to

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double that amount every single day. What would you rather have?

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Would you have the for thirty days one penny that

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doubles every single day, or do you want the million bucks?

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Speaker 3: I would totally take the million, which is why I suck.

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Speaker 2: And you're like, I just got a million bucks.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, I just want to make sure that the

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people are represented here, just want to make sure.

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Speaker 1: So I am not answering that way is because I've

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heard this before.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what's funny is and I do this

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for a living, and even I heard it the other

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day and or I was, I was, I was talking

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to one of my kids about it or something, and

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I was like, wait a second, is that right? I

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had to go back again and just run through the

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math real quick because it it just catches you off guard.

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But and don't hold me to this, but I believe

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the number is right around seven and a half eight

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million dollars if you were to double a penny every

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single day. So when you're putting those distributions in every

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single year, and people are like, oh, the stock market

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won't continue to go up over the long run, Yes,

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it will, if for no other reason other than just inflation. Right,

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Meaning some of the stock markets that went up the

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most last year were economies that aren't doing well. Right,

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it's inflation, So it's inflation's just driving the price of

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it up. But yeah, I mean when you're talking about

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starting with one thousand dollars and if you keep contributing,

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you know, it's what I tell parents about setting up

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wroth iras for their kids, right, Like, if let's say

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the kid and God willing, right, let's say by the

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time the kid's thirty years old, he can't contribute to

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a wroth anymore. But if you've started off and kept

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contributing to a wrath every single year, you know, it's

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not that difficult to have a wroth. By the time

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your kid is sixty years old, it's worth three to

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five million bucks. And remember that three to five million

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bucks has no tax liability, right, So yeah, it is.

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And it's something I just tell young people all the time,

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which is just and I know everybody says it and

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you get tired of hearing it, but I think that

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you and I, but all three of us can agree

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that life happens so much faster than you think it's

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going to.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Right, and every single thing in my life where I

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looked at that and I paid a price at some point,

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I look back at it now and I think two things.

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A thank god I did and B that price was

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nowhere near as expensive as the payout right, like meaning

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it delivered multiples of what the price was, right, And

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so you know, telling those people, look, it's not complicated.

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If you keep sucking a way and you've got a

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pile of money that's growing at double digit returns on

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average for a long period of time, you're gonna wake

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up in the not too distant future and have a nice,

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nice stack adult.

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Speaker 4: You know, is like, this is probably a really dumb

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question because we have a couple like the people, and

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I hope they're not listening to this, but our savings

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bond's like completely useless?

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Speaker 3: Like is that something you would never ever say?

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Speaker 4: Hey, as b a baby's born, get them a saving

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time seriously, are they are they useless?

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Speaker 2: Or well, here's what I would say. I would just say,

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the primary purpose for a saving bond like a T bill,

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like a money market account, right, is stable return. When

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we're talking about a child, right, how like how much

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volatility can that kid deal with? Infinite, right, Like it

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doesn't matter. So what I would do is I would

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just say throw it in you know, the S and

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P five hundred, or throw it in the All World

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Stock Index or something like that, because, yeah, when you're

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the reason that we go down the down the road

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to savings bonds and CDs and things like that, is

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you know, know your risk podcast right risk management meaning

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you know, like I always tell our clients like, oh,

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look what what I think is the right portfolio for

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you only works if it's a portfolio you can live with, right,

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meaning it's got levels of volatility, because if you have

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a portfolio that's too risky, what inevitably ends up happening

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is when you get a bump in the road, the

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people freak out and pull it precisely the wrong time. Right,

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So when you were flipping around looking at a kid,

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that kid isn't going to need that money for a

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really long time. That kid's not checking their account, right,

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nobody else is. So literally, what you want to do

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in a scenario like that is you want to introduce

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as much risk as you possible.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, which is fine.

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Speaker 1: They always have they always have those age related retirement plans,

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like those fun groups for age depending on where you

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are in your retirement journey. Yes, they're riskier, and then

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they get more less risky the older you get, which

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makes all kinds of sense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And what I would tell people if a little quick,

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free piece of advice here if you can, and if

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you know what you're doing, Look those funds that you're

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talking about. We call them target date or target portfolio funds.

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I was actually I worked at a company that was

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kind of one of the lead positions in developing these funds,

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and I was on a team that actually developed them.

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So I'm very familiar with how they were. They sound

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really cool. Those funds were invented so investment companies could

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take advantage of cash balances. So what used to happen

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is about sixty five to seventy percent of people that

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contributed to a four oh one K would never actually

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allocate the money. It would just sit there in cash. Okay.

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So the four oh one K companies got wise to this,

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looking around, going, boy, that's a lot of money that's

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not getting a fee, right, we got to get that invested.

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So they came up with these target portfolio funds, and

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the argument was it's a set it and forget it

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because the fund is going to adjust you over time. Right,

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great in theory. Those funds gained pop popularity in the

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early two thousands during a forty year period of time

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where interest rates only went down. So interest rates clearly

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don't just go down, as we've realized now, they go

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up to and when they go up, bonds get slaughtered.

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And so what I would tell people is a you'd

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be better off just buying again an index fund for

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the S and P five hundred and eighty percent and

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a US bond ETF for twenty percent.

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Speaker 3: The other thing, oh, sorry, go ahead.

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Speaker 2: Well the other thing is you're all you'll also save money.

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So if you can stay away from those target date

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and portfolio funds, do it, use use just regular ETFs

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And yeah, don't see much.

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Speaker 1: But with these, with these baby accounts, the fact that

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it's just like a three year window of kids that

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are going to be advantaged in this way, do you

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I mean, how do you feel about that? Is that?

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Because I feel like there's going to be a whole

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bunch of people who are having babies, I don't know,

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in January first of twenty twenty nine, who are going

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to be pissed that they don't get to participate, right,

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Is it just like a is it like a pilot

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to see like if this works? And how will they know?

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At what point will they know this is a good

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thing for America? We should do it across the board.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we have to wait twenty years to see.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well yeah, and that's that's why. Look, I don't I

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don't think any of those kinds of things are a

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bad thing. Right. For instance, it's so frustrating right now

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to me because whenever we talk about solving problems, we're

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not really talking about solving problems right when we when

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we sit here and have a conversation about the big

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beautiful bill or spending or social security, we're not really

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addressing any of the issues that are gonna get you know,

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that are going to really impact us long term, Like,

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for instance, this kid savings program should be part of

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comprehensive social security reforms. Right what we should start doing

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is doing a savings deal like this, because we know

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that kids being born today are not gonna get anything right,

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like what we think of social security being today right now?

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But hello, the incalcitrant nature of our Congress and the

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inability to do anything. You know, the flip side of

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you turn around and look at Trump. Oh, Trump's illegally

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deporting people. Da da da da da, And you sit

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there and go, look, I think even Trump would acknowledge

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to you, and he has we need comprehensive immigration reform. Hey,

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you're not going to get it. It's not going to

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get through Congress. Right, So if it's not going to

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get through Congress, what is Trump left to do? He

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has to do what he is constitutionally mandated to do,

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which is enforced federal law using existing laws. He doesn't

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have a choice. And I'm not saying that he's right

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or wrong. That's not my assessment. My whole point is simply,

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you've got all of these issues that we're currently confronting,

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and we throw something. And again I'm not against the

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baby accounts. It just frustrates me because I feel like

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we're rearranging deck chairs, right, Like, do we need something

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like this? Absolutely? And we need it full time, And

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we should have more things that incentivize born people And

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I don't care what color, just people that were natural

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born citizens to have children, right, Like, go look at Europe.

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It's not xenophobic. To sit there and say, several of

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those cultures are getting ripped apart. And I was talking

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to a buddy of mine that's from Greece. He goes,

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you walk in downtown Athens, and he goes, and he goes,

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and he's Greek, his wife's Argentinian. He's a good buddy

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of mine. My wife's black. You know, we're like at

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least raist people in the world. And he Goeszac but

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it's just a fact. He goes. You walk down downtown

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Athens and it's all black. It's all smallies, right, Wow.

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Speaker 3: So our birth rate is like way low, yeah, and.

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Speaker 2: It's tracking toward Europe's ironically, So if you want to

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look at where we're headed demographically. Now, I think there's

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still a lot of differences between US and Europe, but demographically,

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go look at Europe.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's where we're at it, it's what's coming and.

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Speaker 2: And and that's what frustrates me because I'm like, do

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I like the idea absolutely? I think it helps for

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financial education. I think it gets parents thinking about saving

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for their kids. It gives them a start. Also, if

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we're gonna get rid of things like social Security, not

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get rid of it, but drastically tailor it. You need

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to start doing things like this to take advantage of

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the time you've got.

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Speaker 5: Right, because if we're because if we're talking about kids

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not getting Social Security forty years from now, we can

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do things that are relatively inexpensive today that'll make it

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so they're going to be even better off.

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Speaker 2: But what it takes is comprehensive addressing of the issue.

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Speaker 3: And I just Congress it's going to do that.

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Speaker 2: No, they just know it, and I don't see it

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changing anytime soon because it doesn't matter. Trump could come

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out and say I have found the secret to living

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two hundred years and end poverty right now globally, and

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they'd be like, no, no, no, no, that's Orange yeah

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and Marlago and you know, yeah, so and then to

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be fair, right, there's plenty of people on the right

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that would spurn any idea coming out of the left.

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It's just hard to take any of those ideas seriously

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when they're telling you when a man can decide he's

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a woman and just walk into a lasta you know

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what I mean. So it's like they're like, well, that's compromise,

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and I'm like, well a compromise between here and insanity

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is still insane, right, So you know I need you

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to put on your basic human hat or order for

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us to.

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Speaker 4: Have It'll say, interesting though, to see, like in the

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next fifteen to twenty years, what happens to those accounts though,

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even though it is a three year kind of a test,

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if you will, and Trump and his well, his fan

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if he's not around to see it, but his family's

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run to see it'll be like that was kind of

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part of his legacy.

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Speaker 3: Which is kind of cool.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, and that's part of his deal, is he

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wants it to be part of his legacy, which is

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also kind of cool.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and like I said, that's that's why I

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and that's what I hope this is. I hope and

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it seems logical to me that this would be the case.

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But I hope this is kind of the first salvo

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in the attempt at approaching this social security issue, in

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the long term debt issue and the demographic issue, the

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negative birth breaker. If that is part of it, and

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there's more to come, I love it. But to your

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guys' point, you know, if it's just three years, I

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don't really it'll be good for those kids. But I

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don't really see what it would make it diffen. It's

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really large, you know.

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Speaker 4: Yeap, I need to make sure our middle kid hurries

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up and has a kid in the next three years.

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Speaker 1: I get them on and that came on the stick. Well,

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these are the kinds of things that we know we're

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going to get good information from you about. And you

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also offer people information in different formats like your webinars

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that you have once a month or even more often.

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I think is it once a month on four?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, but you ask us to daily doses of information.

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How do people get in on that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So we do every day do our Daily Dots show,

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which is try to keep it between twenty five thirty

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five minutes where we discuss everything pertinent that happened that

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day in the world of economics and finance and politics,

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if it, if it intertwines, and you can find that

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at Know Your Risk Podcast. We're on YouTube. You can

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find the video feed there. You can go to Know

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Your Risk podcast dot com. You can sign up for

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the free webinars at Bolwarkcapitalmanagement dot com which I think

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you didn't you guys attend one? Did were you one?

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Speaker 3: Or no, no, webinar.

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Speaker 2: Did I know, we just did one on one consultation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we have one consultation. Yeah, you're just my guy.

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Speaker 2: Well there you go, there you go. That's right right

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back at you, lady, right back at you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah so much, Zach.

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Speaker 3: We appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, always, thanks for having me fun as all.

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Speaker 4: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Investment advisory services offered through Track Financial LLC and SEC

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registered investment advisor. Investments involve risk and or not guarantee

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past performance.

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Speaker 3: Doesn't guarantee future result TREKT twenty four, two forty four