WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:02.919 Look, I'm listen to your music atdigas is so dumb. 2 00:00:03.120 --> 00:00:05.360 Well usually that's why I'm doing it to annoy you. 3 00:00:05.360 --> 00:00:06.440 Partly, don't listen. 4 00:00:07.799 --> 00:00:12.279 Well, whiskey, come and take my pain, the money all ry, 5 00:00:12.800 --> 00:00:14.199 oh whiskey. 6 00:00:14.439 --> 00:00:17.600 Don't why think alone when you can drink it all in. 7 00:00:17.519 --> 00:00:22.440 With Ricochet's Three Whiskey Happy Hour, join your bartenders, Steve Hayward, 8 00:00:22.640 --> 00:00:30.960 John You, and the International Woman of Mystery, Lucretia, where. 9 00:00:30.800 --> 00:00:33.320 They lapps it up and David, ain't you easy? 10 00:00:33.439 --> 00:00:34.079 On the show? 11 00:00:34.840 --> 00:00:36.600 Tap got a giving and. 12 00:00:36.679 --> 00:00:37.840 Let the whiskey blow. 13 00:00:38.479 --> 00:00:41.719 Well, Hi everybody, and welcome to a tariff free episode 14 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:43.079 of the Three Whiskey Happy Hour. 15 00:00:43.359 --> 00:00:44.600 Actually that's not quite true. 16 00:00:44.719 --> 00:00:47.479 We've dropped all our tariffs on other podcasts, but we 17 00:00:47.520 --> 00:00:49.880 do have one hundred and twenty five percent tariff on 18 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:53.920 our own podcast for all discussions about tariffs, although we 19 00:00:53.960 --> 00:00:55.200 will spend a couple of minutes on it. 20 00:00:55.240 --> 00:00:57.600 But we're glad to have John U back this week. 21 00:00:58.079 --> 00:01:01.000 Because John and you are in your app since last week. John, 22 00:01:01.359 --> 00:01:03.920 to my shock and to the surprise of many listeners, 23 00:01:04.719 --> 00:01:07.120 I was in terror that was going to go very badly, 24 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:10.040 but Lucretia wasn't the host and was very nice to me. 25 00:01:11.040 --> 00:01:14.760 And that's why you're like, Steve, You're like a beaten dog. 26 00:01:15.280 --> 00:01:17.239 She just didn't beat you, so you thought she was 27 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.920 being nice to you. Yeah, just zero. You just made 28 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:22.439 it back from negative one hundred to zero. But you're 29 00:01:22.439 --> 00:01:25.840 not at plus one hundred, my friend, Well. 30 00:01:25.680 --> 00:01:29.280 Okay, could beat uh. This is so I uh here, 31 00:01:29.319 --> 00:01:30.319 wait wait, wait wait. 32 00:01:30.120 --> 00:01:31.799 I want to stop you for a second. I want 33 00:01:31.840 --> 00:01:33.319 to point out that I think it was the week 34 00:01:33.400 --> 00:01:36.000 before when we maybe whenever, it was when we talked 35 00:01:36.000 --> 00:01:41.599 about the the death of Raoul Grajalva. I said I 36 00:01:41.680 --> 00:01:44.319 hated the guy, but I especially hated him because he 37 00:01:44.480 --> 00:01:47.959 was awful to Steve. Right, there's a compliment. 38 00:01:48.079 --> 00:01:50.159 I don't know, I know, I know. 39 00:01:50.239 --> 00:01:54.560 I just have to uh, well, all right, John, I 40 00:01:54.560 --> 00:01:55.400 have in the can that. 41 00:01:55.680 --> 00:01:58.719 As long as there's an enemy, Steve, I'm on your side. 42 00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:01.799 Okay, good, well, good to know that we have our 43 00:02:01.799 --> 00:02:05.040 snapping turtle back and forth. So's to get in trouble 44 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:08.159 for that, So I guess, so catch listeners up. 45 00:02:08.680 --> 00:02:10.560 This is what Friday evening. 46 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:14.080 I've got my last bottle of pre terraf lafreug maybe 47 00:02:14.400 --> 00:02:17.680 in hand because I wanted it. This was week five 48 00:02:17.960 --> 00:02:19.840 of five weeks in a row, on the road the 49 00:02:19.960 --> 00:02:22.400 entire week, and I don't even remember now where I've been. 50 00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:24.800 All I know is that I want to shoot my scheduler, 51 00:02:25.120 --> 00:02:27.759 except I look at that my scheduler every morning in 52 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:29.400 the mirror, so it's my own darn fault. 53 00:02:30.439 --> 00:02:32.520 But I can give you a sort of a report 54 00:02:32.520 --> 00:02:33.680 from hind enemy lines. 55 00:02:34.280 --> 00:02:37.800 After class down in Malibu this week, I went to Boulder, 56 00:02:37.840 --> 00:02:41.199 Colorado for three days to be you know, as if 57 00:02:41.240 --> 00:02:43.719 being at Berkeley wasn't bad enough, John, Right, it's their 58 00:02:43.759 --> 00:02:46.240 annual conference on world affairs that I have not attended 59 00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:51.080 since before COVID, And oh my god, the Trump de 60 00:02:51.159 --> 00:02:54.439 arrangement syndrome is so out of control and Boulder that 61 00:02:54.479 --> 00:02:58.159 they really do need to be quarantined. And I'll just 62 00:02:58.360 --> 00:02:59.400 make a long story short. 63 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:01.840 Although the panels were supposed to be about general topics, 64 00:03:02.000 --> 00:03:03.000 I'll skip over all that. 65 00:03:03.400 --> 00:03:07.919 Everything was about Trump. And so my fun provocation was saying, oh, 66 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:10.759 because I was on a panel, John, you'll know of 67 00:03:10.759 --> 00:03:14.719 her with Ellen wintraup from fired from the Federal Election Commission. 68 00:03:14.800 --> 00:03:17.439 She's very upset about that, and I kept making the 69 00:03:17.479 --> 00:03:20.479 point that well, you liberals of boulders understand that this 70 00:03:20.560 --> 00:03:23.520 is the presidency that liberals have always wanted, designed by 71 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:27.599 Woodrow Wilson, perfected by Franklin Roosevelt, and Roosevelt's only Trump 72 00:03:27.639 --> 00:03:30.400 was only exercising the powers that Roosevelt wanted to exercise. 73 00:03:30.639 --> 00:03:33.479 So there, and that didn't go down very well, but 74 00:03:33.520 --> 00:03:34.000 it was fun. 75 00:03:34.520 --> 00:03:35.199 I have to say. 76 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:39.400 You know, you always fall back on that trope, Steve, 77 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:43.080 like anybody who is a modern leftist cares about what 78 00:03:43.199 --> 00:03:45.879 FDR did. He's no longer the icon you think he 79 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:46.840 is to the left. 80 00:03:48.240 --> 00:03:50.800 Well, yes, and no, I think I think yes, you're right. 81 00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:53.719 However, I mean, you've even got dumb ass, dumb excuse me, 82 00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:58.360 it's been a long day dumb conservatives speaking well of FDR. 83 00:03:58.840 --> 00:04:03.840 You know, So why were left on anywhere? Embrace FDR 84 00:04:03.960 --> 00:04:07.560 that you know, the history has moved on, Steve, The 85 00:04:07.680 --> 00:04:09.719 arch of history bends away from FDR. 86 00:04:10.639 --> 00:04:11.719 H correct? 87 00:04:12.000 --> 00:04:14.319 I mean I generalize it this way. You really could 88 00:04:14.360 --> 00:04:18.000 see the contempt for and ignorance of all history. So 89 00:04:18.079 --> 00:04:20.199 you know, I brought up things like Humphy's executor and 90 00:04:21.040 --> 00:04:23.839 various other aspects of I read a couple passages from 91 00:04:24.160 --> 00:04:26.839 Roosevelt's speeches and say, which, of course they've never heard. 92 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:29.680 Try having Trump say those words and see how you 93 00:04:29.800 --> 00:04:31.600 like them. And you could see people this is brand 94 00:04:31.600 --> 00:04:32.120 new to them. 95 00:04:32.680 --> 00:04:34.319 And so I was on, I. 96 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:36.839 Don't know if you know this woman Lisa Graves, John, 97 00:04:36.959 --> 00:04:39.360 she worked on the Senate Judiciary Committee about the same 98 00:04:39.399 --> 00:04:41.759 time you did, I think, in the nineties, and boy, 99 00:04:41.879 --> 00:04:43.800 she way out left and she said, this is the 100 00:04:43.920 --> 00:04:47.839 nation's worst constitutional crisis ever. And I just sort of 101 00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:49.639 calmly said, well, I would have thought the Civil War 102 00:04:49.720 --> 00:04:51.439 might have been a little worse as Oh, yeah, of course, 103 00:04:51.439 --> 00:04:51.959 except for that. 104 00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:53.600 Yeah, it was. It was. 105 00:04:53.360 --> 00:04:57.680 It was a lot of fun embarrassing the liberals for 106 00:04:57.759 --> 00:05:04.160 what they don't know and anyway, but it's exhausting. Good lord, anyway, 107 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:07.120 what should we start with. You know, we're big in 108 00:05:07.199 --> 00:05:08.839 tariffs to death. I do think there are a couple 109 00:05:08.879 --> 00:05:11.319 of things that are under discussed, and we do have 110 00:05:11.399 --> 00:05:13.560 a question from a listener. But either you have an 111 00:05:13.600 --> 00:05:19.279 opening bid on what you think about where things stand today. 112 00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:23.240 No, John, you're you're the expert. You're the financial expert. 113 00:05:23.720 --> 00:05:24.519 Well no he isn't. 114 00:05:24.879 --> 00:05:28.560 Oh you're talking about for the economy? Well, or what anything, 115 00:05:28.720 --> 00:05:31.639 just the whole world. I mean, we're I think, I mean, 116 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:34.759 I think of the tariffs one is a just a 117 00:05:35.160 --> 00:05:40.240 self self inflicted error on the part of the Trump administration. 118 00:05:41.279 --> 00:05:44.040 But they're moving in the right direction now, which is 119 00:05:44.120 --> 00:05:46.360 I think if the whole thing ended up becoming aimed 120 00:05:46.360 --> 00:05:52.160 at China and China's allies and ended up unifying the 121 00:05:52.240 --> 00:05:56.519 rest of you know, our allies, I think, actually that's 122 00:05:56.519 --> 00:05:58.600 what it should have been in the first place. So 123 00:05:58.639 --> 00:06:01.959 Trump's keeping the Chinese tariffs at over one hundred percent 124 00:06:02.480 --> 00:06:05.279 was that it's like one hundred and forty percent, and 125 00:06:05.319 --> 00:06:10.120 he suspended the other tarriffs towards other countries and say 126 00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:13.600 he does negotiate, you know, like free trade agreements with 127 00:06:13.639 --> 00:06:18.399 most of our allies. That's actually the ideal outcome to me. Now, 128 00:06:18.439 --> 00:06:20.240 if you'd started that way, then you wouldn't have to 129 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:22.720 have lost over a trillion dollars in the stock market 130 00:06:23.040 --> 00:06:26.639 and taken a hit in his public approval ratings and 131 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:30.319 possibly go into recession this year. So that's the self 132 00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:31.360 inflicted error part. 133 00:06:31.399 --> 00:06:31.879 I don't get. 134 00:06:31.920 --> 00:06:35.040 Why not just start out by saying we're gonna target 135 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:38.319 all these tariffs on China and we're gonna encourage our 136 00:06:38.360 --> 00:06:41.560 allies to also put tariffs on China. They're the real 137 00:06:41.600 --> 00:06:42.680 task in all this. 138 00:06:43.800 --> 00:06:46.560 Can I ask you, John, if this is not my 139 00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:49.439 area of expertise, I don't pretend to. I look at 140 00:06:49.439 --> 00:06:53.800 it from a thousand foot bird's eye view, and I'm 141 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:56.879 loving kind of every minute of it, just because it's 142 00:06:56.959 --> 00:07:00.639 the elite scum who've been getting rich of the middle 143 00:07:00.639 --> 00:07:03.720 class and the lower middle class for years. But leave 144 00:07:03.759 --> 00:07:08.680 that aside. Is there not the possibility that had had 145 00:07:08.759 --> 00:07:13.160 Trump gone after just China from the beginning and not 146 00:07:13.360 --> 00:07:15.720 all of the what is it ninety countries? Is that 147 00:07:15.759 --> 00:07:19.000 how many tariffs he issued? I know it was pretty 148 00:07:19.040 --> 00:07:24.000 clear about the fact that these are at best reciprocal tariffs. 149 00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:27.360 In many most cases, the tariffs imposed upon other countries 150 00:07:27.399 --> 00:07:30.240 weren't close to even close to what those countries were 151 00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:34.120 imposing on us. That's a whole different thing we don't 152 00:07:34.160 --> 00:07:39.519 need to talk about. But because he was, he showed 153 00:07:39.560 --> 00:07:43.720 his willingness to say America's first on this one. And 154 00:07:44.040 --> 00:07:46.879 by the way, yeah, China's the worst, and et cetera, 155 00:07:46.959 --> 00:07:49.720 et cetera. But unless you guys get on board with 156 00:07:49.959 --> 00:07:55.319 me and America, there's also the possibility that something might 157 00:07:55.399 --> 00:07:58.040 happen in terms of tariffs to you and will be 158 00:07:58.040 --> 00:08:00.839 better off than you will because I control this. You 159 00:08:00.879 --> 00:08:05.160 already have huge tariffs on American goods coming into your 160 00:08:05.199 --> 00:08:08.399 countries as we know, so they don't have a lot 161 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:14.279 to a lot to completely to push back on. I 162 00:08:14.279 --> 00:08:16.560 guess is the way. I mean, look at China, what 163 00:08:16.639 --> 00:08:21.079 are we at one hundred and twenty five percent tariffs? Okay, 164 00:08:21.160 --> 00:08:24.160 so there are some very serious things that we get 165 00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:28.040 from China that we shouldn't medications, some rare earth minerals. 166 00:08:29.079 --> 00:08:32.360 I get that, But do we really need more cheap 167 00:08:32.480 --> 00:08:33.360 Chinese junk? 168 00:08:35.159 --> 00:08:35.399 Well? 169 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:39.519 Maybe not, I think so I've followed along John that 170 00:08:39.799 --> 00:08:42.840 maybe the end game was to isolate China and bring 171 00:08:42.879 --> 00:08:45.879 more people over to our side. Yeah, I know, but 172 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:48.440 I think the reason you wouldn't start out explicitly that 173 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:49.919 way is that that wasn't gonna work. 174 00:08:49.919 --> 00:08:54.200 You actually needed the rough Trump treatment. Well put it 175 00:08:54.200 --> 00:08:54.519 this way. 176 00:08:54.799 --> 00:08:56.399 I mean, I've been following this trade stuff for a 177 00:08:56.440 --> 00:08:58.679 very long time, back to the Reagan years, and. 178 00:08:59.679 --> 00:09:02.039 We've been Please, actually you should view this. 179 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:04.399 I think of a piece with the way Trump has 180 00:09:04.440 --> 00:09:07.279 treated Europe over NATO in the Ukraine situation. I think 181 00:09:07.320 --> 00:09:11.120 there's a similar strategy playing out and playing out pretty 182 00:09:11.159 --> 00:09:15.039 well perhaps. And in the case of trade, the terriffs 183 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:17.399 were set. There's all a confusion about this, but it's 184 00:09:17.399 --> 00:09:20.000 actually very simple. A lot of the trade barriers are 185 00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:22.279 not tariffs. It's the non tariff trade barriers. It's the 186 00:09:22.279 --> 00:09:25.279 regulations that disqualify some of our imports. This has been 187 00:09:25.320 --> 00:09:26.840 a problem for decades. 188 00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:29.720 And supposedly the old the trade liberalization. 189 00:09:29.240 --> 00:09:32.279 Rounds are supposed to lower non tear iff trade barriers, 190 00:09:32.679 --> 00:09:34.840 and we go up. We've been going for years saying please, 191 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:38.000 please reduce your non tariff trade barriers, and Trump just said, 192 00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:40.759 screw it. I'm just gonna thump you really hard. And 193 00:09:40.840 --> 00:09:42.960 so that's part of the game here, is not the terriffs, 194 00:09:43.000 --> 00:09:46.159 because I think some countries have zero tariffs formerly, but 195 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:47.960 they have the non like Israel I think, but they 196 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:50.200 have non tariff trade barriers, and Trump is trying to 197 00:09:50.200 --> 00:09:51.159 cut that at a stroke. 198 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:54.799 Not you don't think so, you don't think so. 199 00:09:55.240 --> 00:09:58.399 If it were true, then the teriff rates he said 200 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:02.799 on other countries would bear so rational relationship to a 201 00:10:02.879 --> 00:10:05.679 measurement of the tariffs are non type. Right, But no, no, 202 00:10:05.919 --> 00:10:08.759 what he did if you look at the formula. Yeah, 203 00:10:08.919 --> 00:10:11.320 he looked at what is the trade deficit between this 204 00:10:11.440 --> 00:10:15.000 country and that country and set the tariff amount based 205 00:10:15.039 --> 00:10:19.679 on that, which has the weird and illogical assumption that 206 00:10:19.759 --> 00:10:23.039 the US trade relationship trade bounced with every country in 207 00:10:23.039 --> 00:10:27.000 the world should be zero. Yeah, doesn't make any sense, 208 00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.519 and that the United States should not have a trade 209 00:10:29.600 --> 00:10:30.559 deficit at all. 210 00:10:31.120 --> 00:10:33.200 That doesn't making The numbers. 211 00:10:32.840 --> 00:10:37.120 He's out there are just like irrational, They have no nothing, 212 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:42.600 They bear no relation to reality. If he actually said, 213 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:46.679 we've calculated how much these non terfforate like the VAT tax, right, 214 00:10:46.720 --> 00:10:50.279 the sales tax in your uprageously high folded into the 215 00:10:50.320 --> 00:10:53.879 price of goods, discriminates against our products, I suppose, but 216 00:10:54.960 --> 00:10:57.399 none of the teriff rates against all the European countries. 217 00:10:57.440 --> 00:10:59.960 Said oh, this is how much we think the VAT 218 00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:02.759 is equivalent in terms of tariff term. 219 00:11:02.840 --> 00:11:04.600 So if they did that then I would believe them. 220 00:11:04.919 --> 00:11:07.600 But they didn't do that. They just made it up. 221 00:11:08.600 --> 00:11:11.480 And number two is why is it so bad to 222 00:11:11.519 --> 00:11:14.159 have a trade deficit? The United States for most of 223 00:11:14.200 --> 00:11:17.000 its history has had a trade deficit. The reason it's 224 00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:19.679 good that we have a trade deficit is that means 225 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:22.879 every country have a trade deficit with We have a 226 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:25.759 capital surt plus account with them that's in the positive. 227 00:11:25.759 --> 00:11:28.279 That means they're sending that money back to buy and 228 00:11:28.360 --> 00:11:31.960 invest here for most of our history because we were 229 00:11:32.039 --> 00:11:34.279 developing country and this is the place to invest if 230 00:11:34.320 --> 00:11:37.480 you believe in innovation. It's good that that's the case. 231 00:11:38.080 --> 00:11:41.399 We shouldn't really want a trade positive trade balance with 232 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:42.320 the rest of the world. 233 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:45.720 Well, I mostly agree with that. 234 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:49.080 A trade deficit by itself is not something to be 235 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:51.600 worried about. And I'll bet that all the people around Trump, 236 00:11:51.720 --> 00:11:54.600 except for Peter Navarro, understand that. I think, once again, 237 00:11:54.679 --> 00:11:57.879 this is probably being Trump the crazy man deliberately, so 238 00:11:57.919 --> 00:12:00.480 I stay crazy, not literally crazy, but I think, you know, 239 00:12:00.519 --> 00:12:02.799 if you're really going to shake these countries up and 240 00:12:03.039 --> 00:12:05.320 really deliver a blow and make them change, that's one 241 00:12:05.320 --> 00:12:07.240 of the things you added into the mix. Because they 242 00:12:07.279 --> 00:12:10.399 say this isn't even reasonable, and Trump says, precisely, it's 243 00:12:10.440 --> 00:12:13.240 not reasonable. Why don't I go to the question, see 244 00:12:13.240 --> 00:12:15.360 what you think, Lucretia. That we got from our friend 245 00:12:15.399 --> 00:12:19.799 the Gora, who sent me a note saying regard us 246 00:12:19.799 --> 00:12:21.399 of all the ins and outs of the of the 247 00:12:21.440 --> 00:12:24.120 economics of it that we've just talked about. Is there 248 00:12:24.279 --> 00:12:26.240 is there a way in which this can be compared 249 00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:29.919 to Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, which was not only 250 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:34.360 an idea and so on merits, but upended a generation's 251 00:12:34.399 --> 00:12:37.679 worth of settled doctrine that upset our allies right, upset 252 00:12:37.679 --> 00:12:38.879 our entire establishment. 253 00:12:39.000 --> 00:12:42.320 And I always forgive the Gora for going off and 254 00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:44.360 meeting me for Richard Epstein. 255 00:12:47.559 --> 00:12:51.720 Almost almost Okay, what what? 256 00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:52.879 What? 257 00:12:52.879 --> 00:12:56.360 What happened there? And it's just what happened to you 258 00:12:56.399 --> 00:12:57.840 miss something kind of weird? 259 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:01.600 No, I can't. I can't even get that out of 260 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:05.960 my mind. The Gore is my good liber libertarian friend 261 00:13:06.279 --> 00:13:09.360 who lives in Australia, our friend. He's out. He's your 262 00:13:09.399 --> 00:13:14.759 friend too, John, you just don't know it. And he's 263 00:13:14.799 --> 00:13:18.759 he's very much a libertarian. I have yet to find 264 00:13:18.799 --> 00:13:23.159 an issue with which he and I actually disagree, but 265 00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:25.639 he claims to be a libertarian and doesn't like it 266 00:13:25.679 --> 00:13:31.399 when I slam libertarians. And and so when Richard came on, 267 00:13:31.559 --> 00:13:33.519 you know, a few weeks ago, when you were you 268 00:13:33.559 --> 00:13:37.519 were busy, he said that he was leaving me it 269 00:13:37.600 --> 00:13:40.960 was one of those memes with the guy Kreshia in 270 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:42.919 the back and it was the gore in the middle, 271 00:13:42.960 --> 00:13:45.480 and it was Richard Epstein that he was having eyes for. 272 00:13:46.000 --> 00:13:48.279 The distracted boyfriend me. Yes, that's called right. 273 00:13:51.120 --> 00:13:52.919 Does he know what Richard actually looks like? 274 00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:59.000 Yes? But sometimes politics and political ideology texts precedents over 275 00:13:59.039 --> 00:14:02.960 those things. John. The good news is that for conservatives 276 00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:06.480 it usually doesn't have to because genuine conservatives are always 277 00:14:06.519 --> 00:14:14.919 more attractive. So that's sort wait, I have to tell you, sorry, 278 00:14:15.559 --> 00:14:17.720 but we need to lighten this up. This talk of 279 00:14:17.759 --> 00:14:21.440 tariffs is very heavy. So the other day someone posted 280 00:14:21.840 --> 00:14:26.080 this picture of all of these women from Martha's Martha's 281 00:14:26.159 --> 00:14:29.480 Vineyard and just you know, this whole litany of all 282 00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:33.080 of their hypocrisies about you know, yeah, sure I believe 283 00:14:33.120 --> 00:14:38.519 in uh, you know, clean energy, but I don't want windmills, 284 00:14:38.559 --> 00:14:41.240 and yeah, you know, just all of these hypocrisies that 285 00:14:41.240 --> 00:14:43.759 were used to from the left. But the funny thing 286 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:45.919 was they were all dressed in the same dumb outfit 287 00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:48.000 and a couple of them were thin and attractive, but 288 00:14:48.120 --> 00:14:51.759 most of them were overweight. And he'd made the comment 289 00:14:52.000 --> 00:14:56.879 something along the lines of they go to XX some 290 00:14:57.039 --> 00:15:00.759 kind of fancy yoga and spend seventeen dollars on smoothies. 291 00:15:01.519 --> 00:15:04.120 So I wrote back, and I think this got more 292 00:15:04.360 --> 00:15:08.720 more what likes and things like that than anything I've 293 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:12.320 ever written. And I wrote back and I said, looks 294 00:15:12.360 --> 00:15:14.519 to me like they should do a little more yoga 295 00:15:14.600 --> 00:15:18.960 and have a few less seventeen dollars smoothies, because the 296 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:22.679 hypocrisy and double standards of the left are just boring. 297 00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:24.840 But lookism never is. 298 00:15:27.360 --> 00:15:32.679 Oh boy, after I called them fat, basically all right. 299 00:15:32.799 --> 00:15:36.840 One last thing on Orry's right, one. 300 00:15:36.679 --> 00:15:40.799 Last thing on Tariff's and this again, John, maybe back 301 00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:42.600 a little bit in your wheelhouse too. I'm not sure, 302 00:15:42.679 --> 00:15:46.120 but you know, one of the thoughts is what's trump way. 303 00:15:46.039 --> 00:15:46.440 Up to here? 304 00:15:46.480 --> 00:15:49.240 What are some of the ancillary purposes? And one was, well, 305 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:51.600 we want to drive down interest rates because driving down 306 00:15:51.639 --> 00:15:54.360 interest rates good for consumers, good for home buyers, et cetera, 307 00:15:54.919 --> 00:15:58.320 and will greatly reduce the cost of refinancing our huge 308 00:15:58.360 --> 00:16:00.919 debt that Biden ran up and so farth And it 309 00:16:00.960 --> 00:16:03.159 looked on day one like it might happen. You know, 310 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:06.879 the ten year note actually dipped below four percent, but 311 00:16:06.919 --> 00:16:09.559 then it snapped back really big. It's now back almost 312 00:16:09.639 --> 00:16:12.320 to where it was before the tariff cycle began. It's 313 00:16:12.360 --> 00:16:14.559 I think it ended at four point four or five today, 314 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:20.480 And so people are saying the bond market rebelled during 315 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:22.480 the week, and you know the famous line of James 316 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:25.519 Carville from thirty years ago, when I'm reincarnated, I want 317 00:16:25.519 --> 00:16:28.000 to come back as the bond market because that seems 318 00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:30.679 to control everything, and there's certain truth to that. I mean, 319 00:16:30.759 --> 00:16:32.679 the thing to say I think about the bond market 320 00:16:32.840 --> 00:16:36.440 is it is the ultimate discipliner now of profligate governments. 321 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:39.120 The more governments run up debt, the more they have 322 00:16:39.159 --> 00:16:41.000 to pay attention when the bond market says you've got 323 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:42.879 to stop or things are going to go upside down 324 00:16:42.919 --> 00:16:43.480 really fast. 325 00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:46.000 Whether there's a coordinated effort or not, I don't know. 326 00:16:46.039 --> 00:16:48.120 There's lots of rumors about it, but that's typical of 327 00:16:48.159 --> 00:16:50.879 the media and stuff today. But it does look like 328 00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:53.679 that may have been a factor in things, that things 329 00:16:53.720 --> 00:16:56.360 were about to go weird in the bond market, and 330 00:16:56.559 --> 00:16:57.679 that would have been very bad. 331 00:16:59.759 --> 00:17:02.240 Look, you can see why the bond rates would be 332 00:17:02.240 --> 00:17:06.240 going up because right you have trade deficits with these 333 00:17:06.240 --> 00:17:09.000 countries they bring the money to the United States, they 334 00:17:09.039 --> 00:17:11.640 have to earn dollars, Yeah, a lot of them. A 335 00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:16.680 lot of foreign investors and governments use treasury bills as 336 00:17:16.720 --> 00:17:21.079 their safest, safest place to park money. If you think 337 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:22.680 we're going to have a recession and we're going to 338 00:17:22.720 --> 00:17:25.480 be cutting trade with the rest of the world, they're 339 00:17:25.519 --> 00:17:27.720 going to take their money and invest it somewhere else, 340 00:17:28.759 --> 00:17:31.559 and so there's probably less demand for dollars. There's less 341 00:17:31.559 --> 00:17:33.839 demand for treasury bills. 342 00:17:34.119 --> 00:17:34.319 You know. 343 00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:36.599 Over I think something like over a trillion and a 344 00:17:36.640 --> 00:17:40.160 half dollars have just you know, have been just disappeared 345 00:17:40.160 --> 00:17:42.839 from the stock market, and asset about money has not 346 00:17:42.920 --> 00:17:43.720 come back. 347 00:17:44.359 --> 00:17:47.200 You know what, I'm well fake money. It's I mean, 348 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:50.960 I'm sorry. I'm still up on the ear because I 349 00:17:51.000 --> 00:17:55.000 know what the hell I'm doing. But that's me. I was. 350 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:58.519 I was down on Wednesday when things went well, excuse me, 351 00:17:58.680 --> 00:18:00.759 I went really bad. I better take drinks, more Scots 352 00:18:00.759 --> 00:18:02.200 I'm having I think I said this, I'm having let 353 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:04.519 froud again because darn it, I want it and it's 354 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:05.000 my last. 355 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:09.640 Well, there's the problem. You're instead of smoking, you're getting 356 00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:12.920 your all of your carcinogens inside whiskey. 357 00:18:13.440 --> 00:18:16.079 It could be right, somebody talk while I caught for 358 00:18:16.119 --> 00:18:16.440 a minute. 359 00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:19.720 Yes, Steve, the reason you're there's reason you're you know, 360 00:18:19.839 --> 00:18:21.880 even for the years, because you probably dug a hole 361 00:18:21.960 --> 00:18:24.559 and put your money in there in the backyard and 362 00:18:24.559 --> 00:18:27.480 then undug it up and pulled it out yesterday. Because 363 00:18:27.559 --> 00:18:29.680 if you were just out of the market, you would 364 00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:31.599 have gone up, and now you're back to where you were. 365 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:35.400 I still destroyed trillions of dollars in assets that were 366 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:39.119 there before because and not and not because of anything 367 00:18:39.119 --> 00:18:42.519 that happened in the economy. It's because of bad public policy. 368 00:18:42.960 --> 00:18:43.359 That's why. 369 00:18:43.640 --> 00:18:45.200 Because of that's why. 370 00:18:46.640 --> 00:18:49.680 Well the way a manteu so first of all, I 371 00:18:49.720 --> 00:18:50.440 was not the last thing. 372 00:18:50.839 --> 00:18:54.759 I also don't think this comparison to SDI makes sense 373 00:18:54.799 --> 00:18:57.400 to me. I mean, there's a difference between like having 374 00:18:57.480 --> 00:19:01.559 a revolutionary view of the way certain policies should be 375 00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:03.119 and really being insightful. 376 00:19:04.000 --> 00:19:05.519 That's not happening with trade. 377 00:19:05.640 --> 00:19:09.680 He's like pulling out the oldest, you know, sort of 378 00:19:09.680 --> 00:19:13.519 discredited ideas about how trade works, and he's using it 379 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:15.079 to attack our allies. 380 00:19:14.759 --> 00:19:15.599 Not our enemies. 381 00:19:15.640 --> 00:19:18.640 I mean SDI was aimed at the Soviet Union, not 382 00:19:18.759 --> 00:19:21.440 our allies. A lot of the I mean a lot 383 00:19:21.480 --> 00:19:23.559 of the trade measures he's talking about are aimed at 384 00:19:23.640 --> 00:19:27.640 countries that have been our friends for since before World 385 00:19:27.640 --> 00:19:31.039 War Two. Not I don't see why we should be 386 00:19:31.119 --> 00:19:33.319 out there punishing the Europeans. I don't see why we 387 00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:34.960 should be out there punishing. 388 00:19:35.640 --> 00:19:41.160 One tariff that Trump imposed was higher than that imposed 389 00:19:41.240 --> 00:19:42.440 upon the country itself. 390 00:19:42.839 --> 00:19:43.400 Not one? 391 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:45.039 Not one? 392 00:19:46.039 --> 00:19:47.039 What do you mean? 393 00:19:47.599 --> 00:19:53.319 I mean if we imposed a thirty percent tariff on Denmark? Denmark, 394 00:19:53.359 --> 00:19:55.519 I don't know the actual numbers. I'm making this up, 395 00:19:55.559 --> 00:20:00.200 but Denmark imposed a sixty percent tariff on us in 396 00:20:00.200 --> 00:20:03.279 every single case. Yes, it is. I can chew the charge. 397 00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:06.000 In fact, there's almost no correlation between the tariffs he 398 00:20:06.079 --> 00:20:09.640 put on and the tariffs they have on us. Like 399 00:20:09.720 --> 00:20:11.319 he put over a huge teriflema. 400 00:20:11.359 --> 00:20:12.160 That doesn't mean what I said. 401 00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:13.279