Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is Thursday. It's time
for Total Basis. We're back with the full three you know,
the three man panel for the first time since Monday.
And I caught some of your guys show yesterday, which
I thought was excellent. I was on my way out
to I'm not even gonna ask. I mean, I told
you guys, I was going to an eerie Sea Wolf's game.
So I'm assuming you know that the cap is from
the game, as you see the Sea Wolf right there.
But I jumped in the comments and I see, you know,
every once in a while, it's all good, but there's
always someone that's like, you know, I wish you guys
just went in order and you guys jump around a lot.
Here's the thing, Unfortunately, on this show, we show up
to do this for the live We do it for everyone,
but the live viewers we play off of, right, Like,
that's the thing We're always going to get to the
games the live viewers ask for. However, today is one
of those unique days all the ocd ers in the
chat unite because we are going in order and we
are getting every single game on the board today, a
rare Total Basis where we will hit every game and
we will go in order, right down, right down the list.
Speaker 2: So let's get it started.
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard, Your Cleveland Guardians the only day game today
and they're taking on the Baltimore Orioles. Lower scoring game
than we all kind of thought yesterday, and Cleveland eeked
out the win three to two.
Speaker 2: To be hard to believe.
Speaker 1: It's low scoring with these two characters on the mound today.
But what do you how you see in this one
Orioles Guardians?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Orioles cost me yesterday. Is it just me? Or
is the team not playing with emotion? It just looks
like they're never excited in the game and just waiting
for the season to end, and they're playing like it.
I'm telling you. Charlie Martin going today for the Orioles
five point five adra four point three five expected, so
he's got some positive regression coming his way. One point
five six whip is kind of ridiculous for over eighty
eight innings. If you take a look at his walk
rate this year, it's a ten percent and he's had
problems the last few years. Nine point three eleven point six,
eight point seven. So that's something that we can grow
to expect out of him. Is in his careers at
eight point seven, but as he gets older, he started
to lose that control a little bit. And the thing
is his strekout rate has been dropping. It was twenty
three point eight last year, twenty two point five now,
so he's got a twelve point five strikeout minus walk
ratio and his fort saamer he throws thirty percent of
the time, it's at ninety four point one, which is
basically about average. If you take a look at the
lefties compared to right he's lefties is about ninety three
point one. Ready is about forty nine or not, shooting
ninety four point nine, which is why when you find
a left handed pitcher, it throws with really good velocity
like ms Ross some others. It's tough for specially lefties
to make the adjustments against him a lefty and lefty situation,
so they have a lot of success in that regard,
much more pitchers and baseball or right handers, and they
throw a little bit harder. So that's where you can
basically come out and look for lefties to throw fastballs
ninety ninety four or higher. And I think that's a
good subset if you were just to look at something
without handicapping, I think you'd have a lot of success
doing that overall. But Morton started the season lousey, and
he's been better as of late. So we'll see how
it goes here. Logan Allen comes in four point zero
sixty IRA four point four to one, expected one point
three to eight, whip part hit rate excellent, eighty seven percent,
average exit velocity eighty second. But I do have concerns
he's still lefty. I just said league average is ninety
three point one, his four receiver is only ninety point nine,
and that's his most popular pitch. He's got five pitches,
but he throws that thirty one percent of the time,
which is why he gets hit pretty hard sometimes. Chase
r eight nine percentile for eight thirteenth, strike out twenty first.
So we've got two guys here that can really struggle
in this game. But it is a day game, and
it is it's a situation where you've got Cleveland going
for the sweep, and usually on the day games we
see more unders because everybody wants to get out there early.
If you watch Major League Baseball yesterday, you can definitely
see it out of these umpires that they're just doing
a terrible jim. I can't wait for the computer to
take over. If they push it back one more year,
I'm going to lose a lot of my fandom for
Major League Baseball. This game, Alan, a lefty, is about
a one ten favorite over Morton. They're ready total of nine.
Like to pay both these teams of both these pictures,
but with it being a being a last game of
the series, I'll probably pass.
Speaker 4: Let me address a couple of the comments. First. Who
is that Adam? Come on Ham, I'm on Hanwah as well,
and I'm watching the game right in front of me
and the KBO. Stacey asked me about my bullpen rankings.
If you go to my page at wagertalk dot com,
I have all my picture projections and rankings downloadable for
free right now, So go check that out. Adam and
Brian and myself, I have a playout in Major League
Baseball already.
Speaker 2: Take a minute and visit our sites.
Speaker 4: Takes you a couple seconds, and we always have free
plays up. Regarding this game, Logan Allen and Charlie Morton,
I have, I mean my numbers love the Guardians in
this game. But it's not so much loving the Guardians,
it's so much hating the Orioles. And the Orioles in
current form, their bullpen is ringing dead last and their
lineup is ranked twenty six out of thirty. And then
on top of that, to add insult to injury, Charlie
Morton on the road he has a six to eight
thirty seven innings. That's not he does have decent numbers
against this team in his career, where Logan Allen has
horrible numbers against the Orioles in his career. Small sample size,
but all said and done, you have to either play
an Over or the Guardians. In my opinion, I don't
really have a lot of faith in Logan Allen, but
the price is not high at all to take the
Guardians here. The Baltimore Orioles are just playing like garbage
right now in my opinion. I mean, I don't see
how anyone could back that team right now. I just
don't see it.
Speaker 1: I wholeheartedly agree with two something you both each said
one TV.
Speaker 2: I'm totally with you.
Speaker 1: It's it's it's less about I don't really love this
Guardians team, but I would love to play against the
oriol here, and it just it's it's the problem, and
I'll explain what my problem with is with that in
just a second. Brian, great point. The Orioles. They look
they just look checked out. They everything about them looks
checked out. And then you have a scenario where, you know,
if I play the Guardians, I have to back Logan Allen,
who I don't particularly like. If I play the Orioles,
I have to back a team on the road that
is nearly dead last in w RC plus against left
handed pitching on the road this season, the Orioles have
been horrendous against lefties, and they've been poor on the road.
When you combine those two things, and now they're on
the road against the left handed pitcher, even one in
Logan Allen that I maybe don't love a ton that's
a problem. So you know, this would have been a
scenario where if I looked at the Orioles and they
had a picture I could stomach, you know, like that
would have maybe because you know, we kind of talked, Brian,
I agreed with you yesterday. I thought yesterday was the
spot for the Orioles. They ended up losing that game,
so I was like, Okay, well, can I come back
with them here? Well, there's a zero chance I'm playing
Charlie Morton tell you that. So for me, it has
to be Guardians are pass and I'll kind of echo
the sentiments of some of the chat here, who is basically,
you know, pointing out what we're kind of pointing out.
The Guardians have played better, So you know, maybe I
have to step back and say, Okay, you know, maybe,
like I was very very down on this team for
a couple of months, I felt like I was right
about that. But I think we have to acknowledge that
they have played better in recent weeks.
Speaker 2: Going into the.
Speaker 1: Break, they had that nice series against the Astros, and
now they've won the first three games of this series.
So it's probably going to be difficult for me to
find a way in to this game unless I just say,
you know, what the hell with it. Let's ride the
hot team, the team that's now won eleven of their
last thirteen games, and take the Guardians in a scenario
that's not only favorable to them, but it's a terrible
spot for an Orioles team that hasn't played well on
the road and has not hit left handed pitching. So
I kind of have to agree with the chat, and
I guess I agree with you guys. Guardian Guardians are
passed for me right here. Can't see any other way
I could could possibly play this one, all right. Someone
in the chat said, you know the Tigers, man. I
was so yesterday I'm driving to Eerie and Mike quote,
so I hit my KBO play in the morning and
my whole sort of plan. The one game I really
did like yesterday, full disclosure, was the Tigers. And you
know this is where Brian and I talk about price
point and stuff. I was like, well, I'm gonna, you know,
we'll see, i got a three and a half hour drive.
I'm just gonna kind of check the market and see
if this comes into range, if it's a playable number,
if it comes in a range. And then it actually
went further in the other direction, so it kind of
kind of priced me out because I wanted under minus
one forty.
Speaker 2: It took a little money. I think. I don't know
where that ended up going off.
Speaker 1: But it made my day easy yesterday because as soon
as I saw they were down six nothing, five nothing,
I kind of went like, you know what, let's take
the KBO winner and just move on and we'll move
on to Thursday, because the game I really liked yesterday
got blown up very quickly and it was very much
the wrong side. So we'll go to that game here.
The chat comment is a good one. He's talking about
Carrie Bonds carry Carpenter. He said, Man, they need him
back to really get things going. Well, that's happening soon
because he's in. He's been in the lineup at Toledo,
which means he's around the corner from coming back Chad
to Cards and this team just does not seem to
hit without Carpenter.
Speaker 2: He needs to set the tempo.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you go back to the beginning of the season,
Brian Leonard, we looked at this Tiger's lineup, and I
think the consensus was outside of Carpenter, Green and maybe
by By. I don't even know if we considered bias
in that group just yet, but it was whoever. They
had two through four Carpenter, Green, and then there was
one other guy, Torkelsen.
Speaker 2: Maybe we were.
Speaker 1: Basic like this lineup is not very good, and then
they proved us all wrong, and now they're starting to
look like the lineup we thought they were going to
look like going into the season. So they've got a
big challenge here. The Blue Jays are no joke. This
is not the team that you really want to run
into when you're not playing your best ball.
Speaker 2: So how are you seeing this one? Blue Jays Tigers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, even if Carpenter was back today, he wouldn't be
playing because he's going up against the lefty and that
really hurts him. When you've got your what I consider
your best hitter on the team and he sits out,
you know, twenty five to thirty five percent of the time.
He's gotta they got to give him a chance to
face lefties. He can't be I mean, his numbers have
been bad in the past, but you can't have your
probably your best hitter set out so many games. And
that's the problem. They're having a Lauer being the lefty
going against Detroit and Olsen, two guys that have been
very good. And we're looking at Olson basically about a
one twenty five favorite in a total of eight and
a half here. And when I take a look at
the WRC plus leader. But I've been using thirty days
I started the season. Then I went to thirty days
and it kept giving me reasons to play against Cleveland,
and so I switched it to the last fourteen days
and Cleveland's up there at number eight. They went away
as opposed to one of the worst in baseball. We
talked about this yesterday. The Angels were number one overall.
Now it's then you've got a WRC plus of one
thirty two, Seattle second at one twenty seven, Toronto one two,
Detroit dead last, tied with the Boston Red Sox at
sixty eight. So there's a huge recency bias for the
offense here. For Toronto, Eric Lawers made some changes. He
hadn't pitched in the major since twenty twenty three. He's
come back this year and he's definitely made some changes.
And some of the guys that I follow the breakdown
pitchers say this is real and it looks real. Is
the ra's two point eight zero He's expected the Ras
three point zero six. His whip excellent zero point nine
to seven. If you take a look at what he
did in twenty twenty three is the last season where
he pitched. He pitched some innings through almost a thousand
pitches that that year. His strike up on his walker
ratio was nine point zero right now, it's at twenty
point four. He's so much better than he is now.
If he didn't come into this season with the name
of Eric Lauer, people would have been jumping all over
this guy as if he's one of the best pitchers
in baseball. He's been really good. He's been held back
from his past in his career. He's gone seven seasons
four point one six e ra A. He's a much
better pitcher now than he than he has been all
season long, and I think that going to continue results.
And if you watched any of my breakdowns, this is
a guy I really like. Two point seven one ERA
expected three point sixty six. He's been a little bit
lucky one point one to nine whip his strikeout to
walk Ray Siow is fourteen point nine, a little bit
less than what we want. His extensions bad in the
ninth percentile, average exon velocity six percentile, hard hit rate
sixteenth percentile. I like both these pitchers, but I don't
trust this Detroit betting. The betting here for Detroit they
have not played well, and you're getting the hotter team
in Toronto at plus money, and that's the only way
I would look here Toronto or nothing for me. And
as much as I like Olson, I think Allower is
for real. And I know this Toronto team right now
is hitting so much better than Detroit Is. Detroit right
now is just having a hard time getting back on track.
And as you mentioned a lot of those guys that
were French players coming into the season, a couple of
made the All Star team, they're starting to fade. And
as good as good as this Detroit is team is
from number one all the way down to their last player,
they need somebody to step up and they're not doing
it offensively right now.
Speaker 4: At first look at this game I would love to
play the Blue Jays here. Got a couple of red
flags when I break it down into detail, namely, well,
first of all, the reason I like the Blue Jays
off the bat is because they're hitting a lot better.
The Tigers are ranked almost last, they last in Major
League Baseball in recent form, and their bullpen is a
little bit above average. But the Blue Jays bullpen is
lights out right now. They're playing great. I have them
ranked number one in all of MLB in recent form
and the Blue Jays lineup is ranked eight in recent form.
So those indicators much much, much higher than the Tigers.
Olsen and lower got them ranked pretty close to each other.
They're both top twelve, Olsen a little higher. And if
you look at how Olson's performed against the Blue Jays
in the past, really good. A two eight average against
and a five seven one OPS. So wait, I'm sorry,
it's even better than that. Uh you know, on a second,
I had the wrong team there. Yeah, an eight three
average against and a two thirty seven OPS and thirty
thirty six at bats against. Not a big sample size,
but he has performed well against them. Lower Lawer's not
a bad pitcher on the road. Hmm. If you think
Olsen can hold these bats down, maybe a first five
under would be a play or go with the Blue Jays.
Perhaps I'm still thinking about it, but those are the
two directions I would go. I'm just a little scared
to play the Blue Jays considering how good Olsen is
pitched against him in his passed But the sample size
is small, so maybe I can overlook it. I'll break
it down a little further, but those would be the
two directions I would go.
Speaker 1: So what I've noticed watching Korean baseball for now as
long as I have and just agent baseball in general.
The players that go over it feels like the position
players and the hitters that go over there go over
to get one final payday before they're maybe out of.
Speaker 2: The game, whereas the pitchers that go over there.
Speaker 1: And I think this really started with Chris Flexen in
twenty twenty when he got a lot of attention because
the rest of the world was watching Korean baseball. There
was nothing going on. He got a lot of attention
over there, and then he came back and remade his career.
I think for pitchers, a lot of them are going
over to get the experience and the reps that that
they're not really able to get in this country.
Speaker 2: At like the highest level.
Speaker 1: So what I mean by that is, yes, you can
hang around in Triple A, and you can hang around
in the minors, or you can get to a big
league team. You're pitching out of the bullpen, but there's
no guarantee you're gonna throw every fifth day. And even
in the minors, even if you're a starter, a lot
of times it's still developmental. They got to get everyone innings.
They may not let you pitch into the sixth or
the seventh like they would. Let's say Korea, where a
guy like Eric Lauer can go over there. He knows
he's gonna pitch every fifth day, and he knows he's
the he's gonna be one of the guys, like he's
gonna throw one hundred to one hundred and ten pitches.
And then not only does he get to do that,
but he gets different perspective on pitching the Asian and
TV can speak to this for days. How the Asian
philosophy on pitching is a little bit different. It's it's
a lot more concentrated on on pitch mix and.
Speaker 2: Getting guys out.
Speaker 1: Getting guys out because Asian hitters are just up there
slaping a lot of times. So you really have to
kind of reinvent yourself as a pitcher. So now we
have documented like PROGA, we have five years of documented
like guy goes over, remakes himself as a pitcher, guy
comes back and now he's suddenly not the guy that
the league remembered him to be.
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I get it.
Speaker 1: Eric Fetti has had a tough go of late, but
look at Eric Fetty when he came back.
Speaker 2: The year after he went to Korea, he was awesome.
Chris Flexen.
Speaker 1: The two years after he came back from Korea, he
had like a sub for Era for the Mariners. Now, guys,
they're gonna catch up with you at some point. But
I'm talking about coming back and having immediate success. Because
of what Brian has said, the league still is still
attacking Eric Lauer like he's Brewers Eric Lauer right, Like
he's Eric Lauer from the brew Oh, the best example
of it. I can't believe I forgot Ben Lively just
because he's been out. He might be the best example
of all. Comes back and he's they That's what Lawer
has done. He went over there, was able to tweak
his pitch mix, but also probably has a new philosophy
on like how he's going to attack hitters.
Speaker 2: And the league just is not.
Speaker 1: I don't think the league is looking at what he
was doing in Korea. I really think the league is
probably more basing it. Like, Okay, he was on the
Brewers in twenty twenty three. This is the type of
pitcher he is. It took major It took Major League
Baseball an entire year to figure out Eric Fetti was
throwing a sweeper.
Speaker 2: That's baffling.
Speaker 1: To me because we watch it every every fifth day
with the Korean Baseball branded But it took the league
literally an entire year to figure out, Okay, Fetti's gonna
throw the sleeper.
Speaker 2: Now they figured it out. Now they're hitting him.
Speaker 1: So right now we're in the sweet spot for Eric
Lower where he was in Korea last year. He's back
and he's just doing things differently than he did in
the past. His command is better. Why is his command better? Well,
he got to go out and pitch every fifth day
in Korea, throw one hundred pitches and pitching the biggest
games for Kia last year.
Speaker 2: That matters too, Right, You're now at the big league level.
Speaker 1: You're not really worried after you go to Korea and
you're pitching in front of those crowds, sellouts every single game,
huge spots. I mean they might not those games might
not mean as much here in the States. They mean
everything to them. You are a much more mature pitcher,
and so I think that's what we're seeing out of Lower,
and I think that can explain why he's done what
he's done. It also, in my opinion, leads me to
believe that it's not fake like He's not just gonna
go get blown up the second half. I think he is,
like what you've seen from him at this point is
now what he is. The rest of the league will
have to adjust and figure out how to hit him,
will they at some point?
Speaker 2: Probably is it going to be this game?
Speaker 1: Probably not, because he's still in that like sweet spot
where he's been a starter for a couple months. He's back,
he's rolling along, so lower's been fantastic. I think that's why.
And again, I just don't think the league is going
to figure that out overnight. So I think you're going
to continue to see Eric Lawer have success. I would
have loved for this to be a spot where I
could potentially play the Tigers, because, as I said, I
liked him yesterday. But I also go back to our
conversation from tuesday. I need to see something from the
Tigers really before I bet on this team.
Speaker 2: And that's ultimately what kept me.
Speaker 1: Off yesterday at that price point, Brian Leonard, because I
loved how that game.
Speaker 2: I lovet so Melton.
Speaker 1: They call everything about that I loved for the Tigers,
I didn't love the price point, and I went back
to the little voice in my head saying, you said
you need to see something out of this team before
you're going to bet on them, and you still haven't
seen it, so coming to this game, I still haven't
seen it. So it has to be the Blue Jays
at this price or pass. And again, I am in
no rush to fade Eric Lauer because what he's doing
right now is what we saw that he do for
almost a year and no one figured it out, and
I don't think anyone's going to figure him out either.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, We've talked about this in the past,
but I know we got a lot more different viewers
than we've had at that time since both of you
handicap the other countries, you know, Brandon does Mexican baseball also,
can you once again go over what you would compare
the Korean League and the Japanese League to American baseball?
Speaker 4: Me, Japanese is chiple A. They got at least five
pitchers in Japan right now that could take over spots
in starting rotations in major leagues, So they're a triple
A league. And I would put Korean either college or single.
Speaker 1: Ah no, no, no, no, no, no no no.
Speaker 4: In my opinion, yes, no way. Their fielding could be
their Their fielding is actually worse than single A. They
don't know how to field, and they they make so
many errors. There's at least five errors of game in Korean.
They can't field, pitchers can't pitch. Their bullpens have v
ra as of over six and I mean, it's just terrible.
I would say single A to be to be.
Speaker 1: Kind, dude, that is that there. That's the second worst
comment you've made on the show this year. The first
one was saying that the Brewers were done. Okay, listen,
you have not watched single A baseball if you If
you're saying Korean is single A, that's single A baseball
is essentially just eighteen year olds, most of which are
not going to make it.
Speaker 4: That's pretty much what I think.
Speaker 2: On what Korea is wrong. I'm gonna very I'm gonna
give it very because we have time.
Speaker 1: You have a very thorough explanation of what the Korean
league is, and then and then you can tell me
I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: Essentially what you.
Speaker 1: Have in Korea, I've been there, but you can watch
minor league baseball in the in this country. To say
it's single A, because that's just that's just inherently false.
Speaker 4: They feel better than that.
Speaker 1: Can I finish what I'm gonna say, and then you
can tell me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: This is what Korean baseball is.
Speaker 1: It is a mix of players from basically Triple A
and Double A.
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna finish.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna explain why, and then you can tell me
if I'm wrong. Because the import guys that come over
the couple on the roster are guys that are probably
Triple A type guys, Like look at every roster you've got.
Speaker 2: You know, your two pitchers and your import hitter.
Speaker 1: They're guys that might make it in the MLB somewhere,
Like Mike Taukman has sort of come back and made
it in the MLB right, Like Jonathan Perlaza had a
really good season from Hanua. He's having a good season
at Triple A. So those guys are Triple A. Then
you have the next wave of players is Korean born
players that are like potentially good enough to play in
the MLBS. The Hassan Kims, the High Song Kims, those
guys are are somewhere in.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, no, there's there's more than that.
Speaker 1: I'm saying I'm saying those guys, those guys are playing
in the majors. There's another wave of players that would
be good enough to play in Triple A. Then the
majority of the league, I would say, is similar to
double A. What does that mean in this the way
minor league baseball works, Double A is basically prospects.
Speaker 2: They're younger.
Speaker 1: So a lot of the Korean guys who start playing
pro at eighteen now when they're twenty three, twenty four,
they're in the league for four or five years. Those
are are what we have mostly at double A. I
just went to a double A game yesterday. It's twenty
twenty one, twenty two year olds that are like, yes,
they're gonna make errors. They're still they're still raw, they're
still figuring out the game. TV where I'll agree with you.
The bottom half, the very very bottom, the guys on
the bad and the last couple of guys in the bullpen,
and the last couple of guys in the in the
in the team are probably a ball guys. But but
the level of play. I watch more minor league baseball
than everyone in this chat combined, everyone on the panel,
everyone in this chat combined. The level of play is
somewhere between double and triple A. I I have been
to a ball games and I've been to college I
have college kids living with me right now. I watch
college summer ball all year. We host we're a host
family for the summer ball team. The level of play
is significantly better than college and you know, maybe Omaha
when they're playing in the World Series.
Speaker 2: Those are pretty good games. So, dude, watch a lot
of college baseball.
Speaker 1: It's not it's not great, like if you watch, like
if I go to the Siena game, not great. I
mean it's it's somewhere between double and triple A. All right,
I'm off the I'm off the soapbox.
Speaker 2: Sorry. I knew he had signed, but that was an
asinine comment.
Speaker 4: Give me one. Uh my comment was asinine.
Speaker 1: It's not a single A. It's professional baseball. It's it's
it's like the third best league in the world.
Speaker 4: L l SU would be in the middle of the
pack if they played in the KBO and Eric Fetty
was was literally the Cy Young Award winner, would he
be the Say Young Award winner in Triple A?
Speaker 1: Absolutely back and shut down on the majors last year.
Speaker 2: He had a.
Speaker 1: Great season Eric Fetti.
Speaker 4: Okay, and here's another one. Uh, Sinsu Chu was literally
Ichiro in the KBO. Are you telling me that? Are
you telling me that he would be literally Itchiro at
Triple An?
Speaker 2: We're getting off topic.
Speaker 1: Shinsuchu did not play in the KBO until he was
about forty years old. He came over here as an
eighteen year old.
Speaker 2: He did not playing.
Speaker 3: He was like the last question off this, Brandy, You
do the Mexican League also? Correct? Yeah, compared to the others.
How much farther down is Mexican League and Korean Baseball
and japan baseball?
Speaker 4: It's similar to Korean. Actually, a lot of the foreign
players that go from Korea, they're playing like Daspanne Reason
or Dspane is playing in Mexico right now, and a
bunch of others. The thing is Mexico has the altitude,
so it's basically playing in Colorado Ballpark with very unskilled
players and a lot of guys who can crank the ball.
Like Robinson Cano is the lead is the top hitter
in Mexican right now, and he's like having an amazing season.
But he wouldn't do that at Major League and he
probably would do that in the KPO though, So yeah,
it's it's like pinball in Mexico.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bring this back in because we got to
start talking about Major League baseball. But Jack makes a
really good comment, and I think this should be thrown
on the screen. College baseball is with the once NIL started.
A lot of these guys are staying in college as
opposed to signing pro tract contracts at eighteen or nineteen.
So there is some merit to that TV cop the
highest level of college baseball, the LSUS those teams, I mean,
they might as well be that that never used to happen.
Now you've got twenty one, twenty two kids that are saying,
twenty two year old kids that are saying, I'll go
to minor league baseball later. Let me stay at LSU
and pick up a paycheck. That's new, and that is
a really good point.
Speaker 2: College.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the college baseball has been a lot better. Listen,
guys in the in the chat, we have time today.
We're gonna get to all five games. So we're gonna
if we want to go off on a tangent, today's
the day to do it.
Speaker 2: We've only got five games.
Speaker 1: We're already halfway through, and we're only halfway through the
show and got KP TV. I'm gonna I'm gonna hit
you with another KBO guy here in our transition to
this game. Aaron Wilkerson, former Low TA Giant, was recently
signed by the Saint Louis Cardinals. He opted out of
his contract in Cincinnati, probably because he's having you know,
he's been behind. He's down at Triple A, behind guys
like Chase Burns Heavy. They have so many good young pitchers.
He's never going to get a look there. He's having
a great season at he was at Louisville. He made
his Triple A Memphis debut last night. Eight shutout innings,
four strikeouts, no walks. That is our guy, Aaron Wilkerson,
former Low T Giant. I wouldn't be surprised if he's
the next guy up in that Cardinals rotation. That's my
bold prediction here. Eric Fetti was dfaid. We were just
talking about him. The Cardinals let him go. They dfaide him.
I think yesterday or the day earlier, you've talked about
Micholas not really belonging in a big league rotation. So
my bold prediction here is Aaron Wilkerson gets a crack
as a starter for the Cardinals very soon, but it's
not going to be today because the starter, Sonny Gray,
he's at home. He's opposing you, Darvish. So let's get
back to the MLB conversation. And it's all in good fun.
We just have differing opinions on that, and you know
it is what it is. But let's get back to
the MLB conversation. Sonny Gray, You Darvish, Cardinals, Padres, what
are you seeing here?
Speaker 3: Brian Leonard TODs Bradley got sent to the minors after
yesterday also, so that was something that a lot of
people thought was going to happen. San Diego Saint Louis
DARVISI and Gray Gray won forty two, one forty three
favorite total of eight. Darvish has only thrown thirteen point
thirteen point one innings thus far. Has not looked good
six point oh eight era, but is expected as four
point twenty nine whip one point five, which is not
what we normally see out of Darvish. His walk grade
is eleven point seven. He hasn't had an eleven point
seven walk rate since twenty eighteen, and that was because
he only threw, you know, seven hundred and forty pitches.
His strikeout rate has been the major, major drop off
in the short sample size. Just last year he was
a twenty three point six percent and that was the
worst of his career. And how he's a thirteen point
three obviously small sample size, but when he got a
starter with the one point six strikeout minus walk ratio,
you want to take a look at going against him.
His his uh fastball ninety four point three, which is
slightly less than the league average. But we know he's
got he's got a ton of pitches. He's got what
eight eight different pitches, and when you have eight different pitches,
the good part is when one of them's not working,
you don't throw it. You throw what you've got other
things to throw. Unfortunately, if you're if you're in that situation,
you've got to have your chances of having a pitch
that's not working. He's a lot higher when you've got
to throw it at him. He just has a better
choice of coming out with it. And Sonny Gray is
very much the same. He's got seven pitches, he throws
nine to four record four point oh four uh e
r a three point eight two expected one point one
five whip, but he's been very up and down this year,
and his last start, if I remember correctly, he got
hit really hard and the Cardinals were never in that game.
His walk percentile is great ninety seventh percentile, eighty ninth
chase rate, but his fastball velocity is only in the
fifteen percent. It's ninety one point seven. Now, he does
throw his his fastball more than the other pitch, but
he only throws at twenty one percent, so he if
his fastball isn't working, he can get people out the
other ways. I prefer when it comes to the pitcher
in this game, I like Sonny Gray much better. But
this Cardinals team is not hitting right now. If you
go back to the last fourteen days, Saint Louis is
number five at one oh three overall, where we're looking
at the opposition here in San Diego is number thirteen
at one oh seven overall. So I kind of like
Saint Louis here, but that team is just not playing well.
Let's take a look at the standings. Right here, Saint
Louis is on a three and seven run. They've lost
their last two despite having a winning record on the season,
they've been off scored on the air. I don't trust
either one of these changes right now, so I'll be passing.
Speaker 4: So regarding this one, let's see what I got here,
kind of keeping my eye on this Hama game. They're
about to blow up with another error, So we got
Sunny Gray going against you, Darvus. Sunny Gray is a
picture that generally the books like too much. In my opinion,
he's don't get me wrong, he's a really good picture,
but a lot of times he gets numbers that he
doesn't deserve. Sometimes he's he's an upper echelon pitcher, but
he's not like elite top ten in my opinion, and
the books sometimes price him like that. He is a
good picture, though, And Darvish has come back, he's starting slow,
he's getting basically he hasn't lost. I mean, he sa
getting old and he's losing. He's losing a little bit
of his edge, getting a little old. And the Cardinals,
you know, it's hard to back a team that just
lost to the Rockies like that, but they are hitting
better and their bullpens performing better than the Padres right now.
So if there's any way I would go, it would
be with the Cardinals here, because I don't see how
you could pack, how you could back Darvish. Darvish actually
was when he pitched in Japan, he was actually better
than Otani as a pitcher. Not as a hitter obviously,
but he's the best Japanese pitcher I've ever seen. So
in Japan, probably Tanaka would be the next, and then
Kuroda after that. So he's just getting old and he's
losing a little bit of his edge. He would be
a good middle reliever to eat up one or two innings.
I don't think being a starter is his role anymore
in my opinion, but that could be an asinine comment,
so we'll do it.
Speaker 2: Adham No, I no, that's a won't get back on
that topic.
Speaker 1: Someone did, though, in the chat, said Trigg's been a
slim in those cut waters. So this is this is
a fresco by the way, you couldn't see that. You
want to know what, Brian, I my parents, my dad
used to get this when I was a kid, and
then I didn't see it for a very long time.
And I'm pretty sure Coca Cola purchased them. And now
I see it everywhere, and I'm wondering if it's maybe
not exactly the same, like maybe they had to start
mass producing it. It's it doesn't taste like childhood. I
remember it being like much better than it was. But
I'll still mess with it every once in a while.
It's it's a it's a you know, one of the
healthier sodas out there, trying to get healthier. But anyway,
someone said Trigg's been down in the cut waters. Probably
didn't just probably disagreed with what I was saying, which
again I could care less totally fine with that. I'm
gonna have my opinion. Doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks,
but I have an opinion on this. Cutwater is hands
down the worst hand beverage alcoholic beverage I've ever had.
It is absolutely repulsive, disgusting. So you won't find me
down in a cutwater anytime soon as far as this
game is concerned. This was the easiest kind of pass
for me on the board. I haven't really I feel
like I haven't had the Cardinals right. The one time
I wanted to sort of step in with the Cardinals,
and thankfully I didn't. Well, we had the Cardinals right
the other day in that first game against the Rockies.
But the one time I really wanted to step into
the post break was on Saturday. It was against the
Diamondbacks and thankfully did not. That was the sunny gray start.
He got knocked around there, and I'm just, you know,
I kind of go back to the Marlin series with
this Padres team. I lost that game with the Padres,
the Randy Vasquez game, and I just my gut tells
me the Padres might start playing better again, like they
we go back to the beginning of the season with
this team, I truly thought that they were an elite team,
that they had a very good chance to win the NLS.
Now I don't see them in the same light that
I did prior to the season. But I am like,
you know, is this the type of team I want
to fade as an underdog because they had a very
tough stretch for a period of time and now they're
starting to kind of, you know, kind of dig out
of it. Brian Leonard, where are they at in the standings?
Ten eleven games over five hundred right now? I mean,
the Padres, I think we're like ten. I think they're yeah,
they're they're they're fifty five and forty seven. They're four
and a half games back of the Dodgers. They're not
the team I expected them to be to this point.
I thought they were going to be better. But man,
that bullpen looked good in the Marlins series, and that
is why I'm just really not interested in fading the Padres.
Then you throw in the fact that they have that
you know you're catching some plus money with them. That's
where I'm just like, it's got to be Padres or pass.
They're They're kind of the dangerous underrated team to me
in my opinion right now. That bullpen is really good.
They haven't hit up the potential, but we know guys
like Merrill Tattoos can can you know, get hot in
a moment's notice, and plus one twenty there on the
Padres seems like it seems like a pretty decent price.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Stars.
Speaker 4: Doesn't get clobbered.
Speaker 3: Just just one comment, James, I appreciate that. I agree.
You don't want to all agree all the time, because
if we've done this long enough, everybody agrees on one side,
that side never wins. And I love people having different opinions,
and neither one of you guys are out there to
try to hurt the other one. But I wanted to
get involved in this. Uh, you had said, Trig that
you could care less. That's the wrong take. It should
be no, no, no. Yeah, you said you said I couldn't
I could care less, which means you could care less.
The correct word is I couldn't care less. Everybody says
it wrong all the time.
Speaker 1: I was an Englishman. It's really bad on my part.
That is really bad on my part.
Speaker 4: Yeah, proper English. We're not going to cover every game
there here we are.
Speaker 3: We all got two more to care we are.
Speaker 2: We only had two more. We got twenty minutes left.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, we still got to do our parlay, which
we lost yesterday, by the way.
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1: It's it's it's you know, there's not much. This card
isn't offering much here. We'll see if we can find
something in one of the later games. I think I
have one of my stronger opinions coming up.
Speaker 2: But we'll see. We're heading out West.
Speaker 1: We've got a pair of AL West matchups to finish
things off tonight. The first one is out in Houston.
And this is a team that again I say so
I say the Pirates are a little bit undervalued in
my opinion where they've been priced in what they could be.
I think the Astros are the team that I can
only see going one way from this point forward. Uh
and I just relative to where they are in the market.
Brian Leonard, I just don't think that they're going to
live up to pricing pricing expectations, at least in the
in the short term. So once again, Astro's favored at home.
But the A's are are looking like the young A's
that might be you know, might lose a boatload in
a row. So how are you handicapping this one? Alexander
Severino Astros as.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is my Tokyo branded game, Jason Alexander for
Seinfeld going today. I think figure Tokyo. Brandon's got something
to say about that. But Severino Alexander Alexander is about
a one twenty two favorite total of eight and a
half to the over first look, I thought I was
reading wrong because Houston at home against a the A's,
that's a cheap number. But then when you take a
look at what Jason Alexander is done in his career
and sever Reno's been much better on the road. It
makes a lot more sense. Sever Reno five point one
O ERA four point seven one expected one point three
to nine whip. He's gotten bombed at home. He's complained
about the mile and there, he's complained about everything there
and they're trying to get rid of him. His strikeout
to walk right show. This is my major concern with
severin oh He's got a ninety six mile an hour
for singer, which is over a one one mile per
hour faster than a normal but his strikeout percentage is
only fifteen point nine. That is terrible. His strikeout on
his walk ratio is at eight point three on the season.
His whip rate first percentile. He's a much better pitcher
than that strike out right eighth percentile. Even though he's
pitched better on the road. I don't want to have
to back him Houston here with Jason Alexander, he started
off at twenty twenty two five point four oh Eira,
got eleven starts, hasn't pitched the last two years. Now
he's back in the majors in twenty twenty five. He's
had one start six games overall, eight point four OH
ERA five point two seven expected one point eight whip.
His career era is five point nine two and his
whip is one point six five. I don't want to
be backing Jason Alexander. If I knew he was just
going to be an opener and he was only there
for an inning or so, that would be enough to
get me involved here with Houston. The problem is, I
don't think that's the case. I haven't read it. Maybe
somebody in the chat notes how long he's going to go,
But this is one of those things that it may be.
If you see he's in there, he's only for an
in there for an inning, you can get a hell
of a bargain by playing Houston and a live betting.
We'll see how it goes. I expect him to try
to try to get in for four or five innings.
We'll see how that goes. But this is the game
you want to watch if you want to take advantage
of live betting.
Speaker 4: These pretzels are making me thirsty. My favorite Jason Alexander
actually Fendly Industries. That's a good one too. Uh yeah,
I agree with calling in the comments. I'm going to
put his comment up. I like the A's team total here,
I like any kind of over in this game because
because neither both teams are hitting pretty good, and even
when they're not hitting well, they have a lot of
talent and power in their lineups. Both bullpens pretty mediocre
in current form. Sevar Reino, I've got him ranked twenty
seven out of thirty on a curve of thirty out
of all starting pitchers, and Jason Alexander has a eight
plus ERA. Granted it's a small sample size. He got
a win for that, by the way, but not the
guy I want to be back in here. I think
both teams should be able to smash. I would like
the A's team total. I would like the game total.
I haven't played it yet, but I certainly will be
considering it, No I have.
Speaker 1: I just have to, like before I talk about the A's, like,
you know, we're talking like passionately and with conviction here,
like because we just love the game of baseball.
Speaker 2: We love doing this well.
Speaker 1: I haven't even talked about something like I would probably
consider betting yet today that that's just where we're at
with a five game slate, Like you know, I wasn't.
I'm not really disagreeing with anyone on the first three games.
I'm just kind of like talking passionately about how I
feel about the teams, but it's like I don't I
have I'd be shocked if I'm involved in the first
three games that we've actually talked about, Like it's just you.
Speaker 2: Know, with a five game slate.
Speaker 1: I also think I want to point out that, like
the books really reset things during the break, Like I
feel like the line the odds makers have nailed every
slate pretty much since the break, with like the exception
of Tokyo Randon's five percenter when he had the Cardinals.
I think he got on it early when it was
like minus one thirty something and they should have probably
been like a two minus two fifty favorite. Other than that,
the books, I feel like have been on point. Every
day I'm looking at numbers, I'm not finding a ton
of value, and I think that goes back to the
All Star break and them having four or five days
to sort of redo power rakings and reset their ratings.
It feels a lot like April where there's just not
as many numerical edges. Now that's all going to change
within the next seven days because trades are gonna start
to happen and you're gonna see guys start to fly
around different rosters and they're not gonna know how to
handle that. But right now it has been tough to
find value. Similar to here, I love I love the
A's fear in theory. I really like the A's tonight.
As to go back to what Brian was saying, I
don't think alex I think Alexander. I think it's gonna
be go out there and we'll come get you when
when we have to write, whether that's two innings, three innings,
six innings, like when he pitched the other day against
the A's, this was the first time around against the A's.
He went six innings, two earned runs on three hits.
If he can do that, he's gonna be in five
or six innings if he can't, or like the Dodgers,
like I don't think they trusted him to continue against
the Dodgers because he went three scoreless innings, but they
probably were like, we can't let this Dodgers lineup see
him again. They'll they'll crush him. And that's probably what
will happen if it and that's kind of what I
think is gonna happen regardless, Like the A's seeing him
again in short succession could be very.
Speaker 2: Positive for then.
Speaker 1: The other thing is, prior to Alexander being on the Astros,
he was in the A's organization. That's where he came from.
He was with Las Vegas earlier this year, pitching a
lot of games in Triple A if I if I
remember correctly, so if any team might have a beat
on him, it should be the A's facing him a
second time. That being said, can you can you trust
the A's right now, who are clearly having like that
that youth moment where they're just not playing good baseball.
On the other side, you've got Louis Severino, go look
at his home road splits. He's been horrible in Sacramento.
He's talked about hating playing in that ballpark. It's a
it's a park that gives up cheap home runs and
a lot of these players have said it it's got
a cheap feel to it. It just it doesn't feel
like a major league stadium. Brian just went, Brian Leonard can.
Speaker 2: Talk to that.
Speaker 1: It just they don't like the fact that they're like
going to the clubhouse and left field.
Speaker 2: It just doesn't have the big league feel.
Speaker 1: And when you're a guy like Severno who's been in
the big leagues for a while, that might wear on
you more than let's say, the rest of the A's
roster who's been minor leaguers. You know, they just all
got here. They were just playing in the minors a
year ago. So sever Reino loves pitching on the road.
This year, on the road for seven, Reno three point
one ora his home, his home ERA six point sixty eight.
Uh batting average against on the road two point one five.
They're hitting three h two against him at home. So
the home road splits are glaring right there. I like
the A's. I wish I was getting a better number.
I wish I could somehow get it plus one and
a half maybe in the parlay. But this feels like
the spot where the A's have success, and that plus
money it's probably the right play. Do I want to
get involved with them? I'm not sure. Sorry, Brian, did
you want to follow up there?
Speaker 3: Uh? No, I did not.
Speaker 1: Okay, So we have ten minutes left. Timed it out perfectly.
I priced in the rant into the into the timing today.
So we're down in the last ten minutes and we
still have a game to talk about.
Speaker 2: Last one on the board. It's the other half.
Speaker 1: Well, it's two other teams out of the AO West
and what I would consider it to be the game
of the day today.
Speaker 2: So Angels, Mariners, Kakuchi Evans. Is that what we have, Brian,
That's what we've got, all right, take it away.
Speaker 3: I do want to point out these are the two
best hitting teams in the last fourteen days. The Angels
WRC plus one thirty two, Seattle at one twenty seven,
right ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. We've got Evans
against Kakuchi, Kakuchi being the left hander. The Angels are
about a one thirty seventh favorite total of nine Logan
Evans three point eight one ERA, but it's expected the
IRA is five point five to one. His whip is
one point four to two. If you look at his
stackcast page, there is not any red on his card.
The best thing he does is walk great seven point
seven percent compared to league average of eight point four.
He's in the bottom twentieth percentile in expected RA expected
batting average everas ectx a velocity fIF percentage, strike up percentage,
barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and extension. He is a
guy with the three point eight one AL it is
probably one of the most overrated pitchers in Major League
Baseball at this point. He's going against a good hitting
Angels team. I think the Angels are going to score
some runs against him. Kakuci, even though he has only
a four point of excuse me, a four and six
record on the season, three point one three ERA, four
point two six expected ERA. So he's a guy who
has been pitching with a little bit of luck as well.
One point three to eight WHIP. His walk rate is
ten point three strike out right twenty four point four.
So we've got two guys here that can be hit
and the year being going up against two of the
hottest offenses in baseball. Now. I think Kakuchi from a
pitching standpoint, is a much better pitcher than Evans is.
But if you do play Kacuchi, you're gonna have to
lay that number. You're gonna have to lay them one
thirty eight. I like the Angels slightly here, but I
also like this game to go over the total of nine.
Seattle's hit really well on the road all season long.
LA is a very good offensive team. A lot of
home runs out of this Angels team, they're more like
the Yankees are, or you get a lot. They don't
have enough guys that can move people along. It's either
a big day or a bad day for the Angels.
Toronto's was similar to that in certain regards, but now
they've got some players back this year that can can
generate offense. There's three games, three games I'm looking at today,
and I'm probably going to pass. I just want to
let everybody know I don't force plays and I have
everything's not been going great anyway lately for me. There's
three teams I'm looking for in my parlay. I'm looking
at Toronto. I'm looking at as as Brandon pointed out,
the Athletics team total over, and I like the Angels
team total over. And I will use whichever one of
those you guys don't use as my brother.
Speaker 4: I'm not using any so you can use Adam's not okay, guys,
go to the replay, click the like and leave a
comment for us. Tell wager Talk that you like our show.
I have an MLB play out today. And also you
can download my pitcher projections and all of my bullpen
and hitter rankings for free. At my page. I'm sure
Adam will have a play up today as well. Regarding
this game, I'm not a big Kikuchi fan. As we
remember my rant before the All Star Game. I couldn't
believe he made the All Star Game. But I like
him today actually not to win the game perhaps, but
if you look at his historical stats against this team,
they're pretty good. I think he's got a not I
think he's got a two to fifteen average against in
ninety three out bats and only a five eight five
ops where seven fifty is kind of the Mendoza lince,
So really good stats against this team. And at home
he's got a He's got a one ERA. I mean,
pretty good stuff. It's not exactly one, what is it?
One nine to eight ERA and fifty nine innings at home.
It's pretty good stuff.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: Looking at the Seattle lineup, I have them ranked seventeen
out of thirty right now, So I would say a
Seattle team total under would be the way I would
go in this one if I'm going to play it,
or I wouldn't argue with Brian taking the Angels on
the money line as well. The Angels bullpen scares me
a little bit, but actually Seattle is not performing very
well either in current form. So yeah, I would agree
with Brian on that as well.
Speaker 1: Brian, that was my strategy, by the way, wait, wait
and see what everyone else does and then then pick,
you know, because that's because that's just how hard it
is to decide between these games today where nothing really
pops out.
Speaker 2: The lines all seem very accurate.
Speaker 1: I got I'm not getting like ranking prospects is like,
this is where it's a problem, like because now the
Mariners continue to feel like they have to force Logan
Evans because he came into the season with a lot
of hype. It wasn't that he was like a So
the two things you see with these like prospect type
guys are one, they're drafted too highly and then the
team feels like they have to like run them out
there because they've got to get some return out of them.
If not, someone in the front office probably loses their
job for drafting someone highly and it turning into nothing.
And then two, when they they really move up and
they get in like these top one hundred prospects lists
and stuff like that, and then it's like we're still
forcing Logan Evans out into big league games. It's like
the third try this year, and he's really done very
little to inspire confidence.
Speaker 2: That he's going to do much at the big league level.
So that's you know what I've seen.
Speaker 1: I didn't think he was ready watching his to call starts,
and it's like the Mariners are now on try number three.
Some of that has to go back to like you know,
they might Emerson Hancock didn't really step up and take
that spot.
Speaker 2: And then who's the guy that's hurt? Is it Miller? Brian?
Is Bryce Miller the one that's still out?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Right, So like that's why Logan Evans is here, right,
Like he's that is why he's here. And when you
look at the stuff, the under you know, the underlying
metrics and what and whatnot, he's not a guy I
want to back and I don't really think he belongs
in a big league rotation right now. So clear edge
in the pitching to to the Angels because Kakuchi, Yeah,
I mean, you know, I TV, I'll agree with you,
like on any other team he might not be an
All Star because you know, the Angels didn't really have
a great candidate outside of them to send it a
game I suppose, but like he's still.
Speaker 2: Been pretty good. Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 1: That's how like little I followed, did did Trout actually go?
Was he on the team this year? I don't remember.
Couldn't care less. All Star Games doesn't matter to me.
The Uji, though, at times, has looked very good. At
times he's looked very good. He the one thing I
love about Kakuchi is the ability to pitch, like sort
of get himself into a jam and pitch out of it.
Like that's just a good veteran sort of sort of
thing he has going. And the Mariners have hit better
on the road, but I think he can kind of
keep the ball down, throw some off speed stuff here,
and you know he might be able to limit the
Mariners in that regard. So I lean the Angels, but
this price is is not very palatable, so I'll have
to again.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna can we go to you TV? Do you
know what you want to do?
Speaker 1: Because Brian and I like they don't want to pick yet,
so why don't you kick off the parlay?
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm looking at Pinnacle just because I don't have
draft kings up right now. I like the Mariners team
total under four and a half and they have it
at minus one thirty two, So I think I'll go
with that one today.
Speaker 2: You said minus one thirty two.
Speaker 4: That's what it is is on Pinnacle, But usually those
lines are very nice compared to Draft Kings. It's probably
one forty five on DraftKings.
Speaker 3: Right. DraftKings has a totally different number. It's minus one
forty at a high, minus one twenty seven at the lower.
So whatever you want to choose.
Speaker 4: There, minus one forty's all right. It's a big parlayce.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again we talk about again we talk about
parlaying team totals.
Speaker 2: I know some people can't do.
Speaker 1: It, like if you can't get on TV's team total.
Angels winning about the Sea. Yeah, Angels win is about
the same price. I kind of think they win today.
I don't love the price. I kind of think they win.
So that would sort of correlate with with Tokyo brand
Degrees is.
Speaker 2: Talking about all right, Brian, who's who's going?
Speaker 3: You were me, I'll go I'll take Toronto Blower. You're
getting them at a plus price. I prefer to play
underdogs as opposed to favorites when I regular chance. And
since he's got the start of this off with the
minus one forty. I'll come back with Detroit one ten
Detroit or Toronto plus one ten. Here, Detroit's been good
on the season versus lefties, but this isn't the same
lineup that they had earlier this season in Lower. I
think we'll continue to pitch well. Like I said, this
is not the kind of card I like. It's seven
games and there's nothing that really jumps out at me.
So I may play some props later on for clients,
but I'm not gonna have anything for sage or titles.
Speaker 2: Yeah, once the I'm with you there.
Speaker 1: I was gonna use this one of you didn't until
the Tigers stopped playing like the eerie Sea Wolves, their
double A affiliate. I think you got to keep playing
against him. They just that they've looked like not the
same team. So I don't disagree with that at all.
I really like Lower and since you took that one,
I'm just gonna you know what, let's go for le
Let's try to hit a good one today. I'm going
A's money line. Severino's numbers are so much better on
the road. The splits are night and day. Someone in
the chat said the Astros are winning with a Space
Cowboys roster. They're right that that's referring to the Sugarland
Space Cowboys, their Triple A team.
Speaker 2: I mean this, this.
Speaker 1: Astros lineup nine yeah, like one to nine. This Astros
lineup very much looks like a Triple A lineup. It's
been amazing to see what they've done to this point.
But you you essentially have triple A lineup, and Jason
Alexander Is is no more than a Triple A starter
at the big league level. He might be a guy
that you put in when you're down five and see
if he can keep you in the game.
Speaker 2: Like that's what he is in my opinion right now
at the big league level.
Speaker 1: So the fact that we can get plus one to
ten with the guy that remember the A's paid this
guy at one point they thought Severino was their ace
like and and actually on the road, he's.
Speaker 2: Kind of pitched like it. The road numbers are very good.
Speaker 1: I don't know what kind of like voodoo goes on
in Sutter Health Park, but he either can't pitch there
or he doesn't want to pitch there.
Speaker 2: When he's been on the road, he's been very good.
Speaker 1: So let's let's go for some Uh, that's a that'll
be a pretty good parlay. We've got two dogs in
there today, So I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna run
this one. This this should be over six to one.
This would this would be the one we we sort
of need to really get back in the mix. We
have Brian Leonard's going plus one ten. Brian, what's the
number on A's that's fair right now?
Speaker 3: One ten?
Speaker 1: All right, so we've got a plus one ten. Yeah,
so we got plus one ten with the A's, plus
one ten with the Blue Jays, and then Tokyo Brandon
is on Mariners team total under four and a half.
It's like roughly minus one thirty two. If you can't
parlay the team total, you can throw Angels money line
in there at essentially the same price. Boys, that's plus
six seventy five that that would get us back on
track right here in the parlay category, the plus six
seventy five to three teamer.
Speaker 2: So let's do it.
Speaker 1: That's A's money line for me, blue Jay's money line
for Brian Leonard, and then we've got a team total,
Mariners team total under four and a half for Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 2: That's the three teamer guys. We did it.
Speaker 1: We managed to turn a five game slate into our
normal hour show right on the money rant included, priced
into the priced into the timing. Have a great day
and we'll be back to normal tomorrow we get the
full slate. We'll be on the ball, we'll be clicking
through normal. No, we won't go in order. Sorry, that's
never gonna happen. It's always going to go off of
you guys in the chat. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Head on over to waiter Talk YouTube channel, drop us
a comment, and we'll see you guys in the morning.