Speaker 1: XRP.
Speaker 2: In this case, we're using the twenty one day EMA,
Speaker 2: basically flipping that into support for the first time during
Speaker 2: this massive acceleration, particularly after several months of just sideways
Speaker 2: range bound activity.
Speaker 1: Right this basically had almost no upside and was just
Speaker 1: a hell of a lot of chop for five months
Speaker 1: or so.
Speaker 2: Now we get this massive extension, we're consolidating, we're using
Speaker 2: that twenty one day emas dynamic support. The thing that
Speaker 2: you should be looking for now, in my opinion, is
Speaker 2: basically a breakout above this range, basically above two sixty.
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Speaker 3: Link will be in a description. Welcome into the Thinking
Speaker 3: Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward and my guest
Speaker 3: today is Caleb Franzen, who's the founder of Cubic Analytics.
Speaker 1: Caleb, great to have you back on, dude. Let's get
Speaker 1: into it, man.
Speaker 2: Every time we do these it's like a bullish signal,
Speaker 2: so hopefully we get a little bit more fireworks here
Speaker 2: in the days and weeks ahead, man, But really excited
Speaker 2: for this.
Speaker 1: Let's do it absolutely.
Speaker 3: You know, last time we spoke, you know, bitcoin since
Speaker 3: then went to one hundred and three thousand. The market
Speaker 3: rallied really strong. We got a bit of a pullback,
Speaker 3: but today big and creeping back over one hundred k.
Speaker 3: You know, what was your first impressions about bitcoin crack
Speaker 3: in one hundred k, I.
Speaker 2: Mean huge accomplishment from the perspective of you know, investors
Speaker 2: who have been in this space for a long time,
Speaker 2: dreaming about the potential for us to get to one
Speaker 2: hundred thousand. But you know, it's like that classic meme
Speaker 2: of like we're all super focused, like looking at the charts,
Speaker 2: we hit one hundred k, we celebrate, and then we
Speaker 2: go right back to staying locked in, you know. So
Speaker 2: that was kind of the mentality for me, and I think,
Speaker 2: you know, honestly, the most beautiful thing about this price
Speaker 2: action is that we've held it.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: We haven't seen necessarily a decisive move in either direction,
Speaker 2: but I think that's generally to be expected when we
Speaker 2: get basically a fifty percent move in a month, right
Speaker 2: or in six weeks. So I think it's beautiful that
Speaker 2: the market is digesting price action here, it's getting re
Speaker 2: equilibrated at these levels, and investors now are getting acclimated
Speaker 2: to price trading here, getting ready hopefully for that next
Speaker 2: leg higher, right because we're in an up trend, the
Speaker 2: trend that is our friend accid prices trend. Like we
Speaker 2: just know this for a fact, and so you know,
Speaker 2: in that backdrop, in my opinion, it's just a matter
Speaker 2: of time before we take that next leg.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, So can you show us your bitcoin charts and
Speaker 3: what you're seeing right now and when we may see
Speaker 3: the next leg up? You know, is it come January
Speaker 3: or maybe around Christmas we get that Santa rally as
Speaker 3: they call.
Speaker 1: It, you know.
Speaker 2: So yeah, let's pull up, let's pull up some BTC here,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna share my screen. I have an XRP chart
Speaker 2: that we're gonna get to which is going to be
Speaker 2: absolutely fireworks.
Speaker 1: So I'm really excited to share that one.
Speaker 2: But the big thing for me right here, right now
Speaker 2: is the fact that bitcoin is basically defending its twenty
Speaker 2: one day EMA, right. And why is the twenty one
Speaker 2: day EMA so special?
Speaker 1: It's not.
Speaker 2: It's just something that I've used for the past eight
Speaker 2: or nine years as a technician. A lot of people
Speaker 2: use the twenty day EMA or the SMA. I thought
Speaker 2: twenty one was a little bit cooler because it's a
Speaker 2: Fibonacci number. So here we are, we're using twenty one
Speaker 2: and so generally speaking, what we see is that during
Speaker 2: really strong trends, we tend to use this twenty one
Speaker 2: day EMA during this trend as dynamic support, right, And
Speaker 2: so so far, the fact that we've basically cooled off,
Speaker 2: we haven't had a daily close below that level, right,
Speaker 2: So we basically have one, two three daily wis below
Speaker 2: the twenty one day EMA, but we continue to defend
Speaker 2: it depending on how price action unfolds for the rest
Speaker 2: of the day. Today, right, it's December eleventh, we could
Speaker 2: quite literally have the highest daily close of all time
Speaker 2: for bitcoin literally today, right. And look, maybe it doesn't
Speaker 2: happen today, Maybe it happens tomorrow. Maybe it happens on
Speaker 2: what's today, today's Wednesday. So maybe it happens on Friday,
Speaker 2: maybe it happens on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Who knows.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, really doesn't matter. The fact of the
Speaker 2: matter is we're in an uptrend. Prices are trending higher.
Speaker 2: We're using short term dynamic moving averages as support. Within
Speaker 2: this trend, the market is consolidating. I think this is
Speaker 2: really important as well. Right, what's the definition of an uptrend?
Speaker 2: A market that produces higher highs and higher lows. So,
Speaker 2: by definition, half of the time we need to produce
Speaker 2: a higher low, right, which by also by definition, means
Speaker 2: we need to have a consolidation. We need to have
Speaker 2: a mini correction and an opportunity to produce that higher
Speaker 2: low so that we can go to the next phase,
Speaker 2: which is just a higher high. And so I think
Speaker 2: right now, my belief is that the lows of this
Speaker 2: recent move are basically over.
Speaker 1: Who knows, maybe we get.
Speaker 2: Another decline back to ninety two, back to ninety three,
Speaker 2: maybe we get down in ninety.
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, guys.
Speaker 2: For me, genuinely, it really doesn't matter, because the fact
Speaker 2: of the matter is we continue to produce higher highs
Speaker 2: and higher lows, which is an up trend which only
Speaker 2: occur during bull markets. Bada bing, bada boom. We're in
Speaker 2: a bull market. I always learned that's the time where
Speaker 2: you make money as an investor, right, You have to
Speaker 2: make money as an investor by owning assets during bull markets.
Speaker 2: So this is the time to sit tight, enjoy the ride,
Speaker 2: and not get shaken out. Right, That's going to be
Speaker 2: the biggest challenge here during the course of this bull
Speaker 2: market is to not get shaken out. And I understand
Speaker 2: a lot of all coins got really punished here in
Speaker 2: the past few days. We've given back a lot of gains.
Speaker 2: I'm a victim of that myself, right. My trading portfolio
Speaker 2: came back pretty aggressively in the last few days, and
Speaker 2: I've been loving this price action over the course of
Speaker 2: the last sixteen eighteen hours.
Speaker 1: But this is just what comes with.
Speaker 2: The territory, especially if you're a trader in crypto, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, you have to be prepared for these significant
Speaker 2: ebbs and flows, liquidations that basically give us.
Speaker 1: Fuel for the next leg higher.
Speaker 2: So as I look at things right now, man, I
Speaker 2: swear to God, sometimes I really do feel like a permeable.
Speaker 2: But you know, it's just we are in the condition
Speaker 2: that is sufficient to be bullish and is paying off
Speaker 2: to be bullish. And so until those conditions change, Tony,
Speaker 2: We've been talking about this every single time I come
Speaker 2: on the show. When the facts change, when the data moves,
Speaker 2: when market conditions change, I will also change. It just
Speaker 2: hasn't been the case that I should be changing my perspective.
Speaker 2: So I'm going to continue to come on here and
Speaker 2: sound really bullish, not because I'm choosing to be bullish,
Speaker 2: but because the objective conclusions are telling me to be bullish.
Speaker 1: So I have to respect that.
Speaker 3: Well said, Yeah, and I know that you are data focused.
Speaker 3: A lot of people, you know you viewed them on
Speaker 3: social media. They're very sentiment focused, and that's because they
Speaker 3: don't know how to interpret the data. And I know,
Speaker 3: like I follow your newsletter, and you include a lot
Speaker 3: of things with the macro and so forth too, And
Speaker 3: folks have to really change their mindset from the mainstream
Speaker 3: financial news and look at data and see what story
Speaker 3: is being told versus narratives, for sure.
Speaker 2: And one of the things that I say is I
Speaker 2: promise you I could come on here and sound ultra barish.
Speaker 1: The data exists for me to come on.
Speaker 2: Here or any podcast for that matter, and sound ultra bearish.
Speaker 2: There are a myriad of data points for the economy
Speaker 2: that don't look great, that look outright bearish. But if
Speaker 2: we want to be objective analysts, and if we want
Speaker 2: to use macro, if we want to use this data point,
Speaker 2: if we want to use that data point, we need
Speaker 2: to come to the weight of the evidence. Our conclusion
Speaker 2: needs to be based on the weight of the evidence.
Speaker 2: So again, I can focus on these things and sound
Speaker 2: super bullish. I can focus on these things and sound
Speaker 2: super bearish. But if we want to be objective, if
Speaker 2: we want to be truth seekers in the market and
Speaker 2: as investors and make hopefully educated decisions, we need to
Speaker 2: look at the weight of the evidence.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: So you know, there's a lot of these people I
Speaker 2: wan't name names, not this time at least, who only
Speaker 2: focus on one side and that's on both sides of
Speaker 2: the spectrum here, right, But I promise you one thing,
Speaker 2: I will always come on here and hopefully look at
Speaker 2: the weight of the evidence and an objective conclusion based
Speaker 2: on the weight of that evidence to guide my decision
Speaker 2: making in the market. And then on top of that,
Speaker 2: you know we've also talked about this before, right, is
Speaker 2: that you know, everyone can have their opinion. There's only
Speaker 2: one truth in the market, and that's price. Right, So
Speaker 2: everything starts and ends with price. If we want to
Speaker 2: make money as an investor, we have to buy low,
Speaker 2: sell high, or buy high and sell even higher. And
Speaker 2: so by definition, everything starts and ends with price. So
Speaker 2: if we just focus on price action, if we just
Speaker 2: focus on technical indicators, if we just focus on price structure,
Speaker 2: that in and of itself is going to be a
Speaker 2: sufficient guide to make educated decisions in this market and
Speaker 2: to stay on the right side of the trend. And
Speaker 2: that's basically what I've done for the past twenty months.
Speaker 3: M Yeah, you've been spot on, man. What do you
Speaker 3: think the next major target is for bigcoin? Let's say
Speaker 3: we consolidate here right, and then we start moving up.
Speaker 3: What do you think that? And I know some people
Speaker 3: use fibonacci, some people use Elliott wave, what do you
Speaker 3: think it might be?
Speaker 2: So, I mean, we've talked about in the past on
Speaker 2: my target for this breakout move was gonna get us
Speaker 2: to basically ninety five k let me just get this
Speaker 2: prime them ready before I share my screen and look,
Speaker 2: you know we've we've hit that level.
Speaker 1: Now I'll share my screen. Bought a bing, bought a boom.
Speaker 2: Okay, So you know, if we take the high to
Speaker 2: the low of that March to August consolidation in logarithmic scale,
Speaker 2: that fibonacci got us to ninety five thousand, let's just
Speaker 2: round up a little bit, so we're now holding above
Speaker 2: that level. It could even make the case that we've
Speaker 2: flipped it into support here. So I think one thing
Speaker 2: that we can do, and I don't do this too often,
Speaker 2: but a lot of traders have a lot of success
Speaker 2: doing this, is we could add the two hundred and
Speaker 2: sixty one point Oh, I already have it on my screen,
Speaker 2: it's just way higher. So there it is, the two
Speaker 2: sixty one point eight. So that gets us to one
Speaker 2: hundred and forty two.
Speaker 1: Thousand, six hundred.
Speaker 2: I don't think we're gonna have a straight shot of
Speaker 2: a forty percent gain from here to get there. It's
Speaker 2: going to be ebbs and flows en route. You know,
Speaker 2: I've been very vocal that my price target for this
Speaker 2: cycle is at least one seventy five. So that's telling
Speaker 2: you at least where I think we're going long term
Speaker 2: the cycle over the course of the next let's call it,
Speaker 2: eight to fifteen months. But look, I think that one
Speaker 2: forty two level does make a lot of sense if
Speaker 2: we want to focus in a little bit tighter on
Speaker 2: this price action.
Speaker 1: This one's this gets a little tricky here.
Speaker 2: We could produce a Fibonacci from the high to the
Speaker 2: low of the price action just a few days ago,
Speaker 2: and that gets us to one twelve, And so I
Speaker 2: think that's pretty valid for a short term target. We
Speaker 2: can get to one twelve, and look, you know, we're
Speaker 2: talking about basically less than twelve percent upside to get there, right,
Speaker 2: It's not it's not a significant move that can literally
Speaker 2: happen over the course of a twelve over twelve hours
Speaker 2: and six hours for bitcoin, right, So look, I think
Speaker 2: keeping an eye there on that one to twelve makes
Speaker 2: a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: And then if we want to be.
Speaker 2: You know, what's the word that I'm looking here, If
Speaker 2: we want to be hi, I'm literally blanking on this way,
Speaker 2: my bad. If we want to be really optimistic, though,
Speaker 2: we can target that one forty two, and I think,
Speaker 2: you know, there is a statistical or technical justification for
Speaker 2: us to get there, And in my opinion, it's just
Speaker 2: a matter of when, not if.
Speaker 1: So let's see how it plays out.
Speaker 3: You know, we've seen some historical patterns with seasonality, right,
Speaker 3: and that come Q four, you see these strong rallies
Speaker 3: usually into January, some of it continues, but then sell
Speaker 3: it may go away summertime, but then come back September October.
Speaker 3: Do you think it might play out like that? And
Speaker 3: obviously we don't have a crystal ball, but that this
Speaker 3: thing you mentioned, you know, eight to what ten months
Speaker 3: or so, that this thing might play out till late
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think we're I think we're going
Speaker 2: to play out until late twenty twenty five. We could
Speaker 2: go longer, right, I think famous last words. But this
Speaker 2: cycle quite literally is different with the ETFs in place,
Speaker 2: and I think with Sailor executing his strategy at scale,
Speaker 2: and now a lot of these bitcoin mining companies trying
Speaker 2: to do the same and replicate that. And so I know,
Speaker 2: for example, yesterday Microsoft voted against considering bitcoin as an
Speaker 2: investable asset.
Speaker 1: That's okay, it's just.
Speaker 2: A matter of time in my opinion, but probably not
Speaker 2: happening this cycle. I would urge investors to be essentially
Speaker 2: to pump the brakes on that narrative. We're going to
Speaker 2: get those announcements that companies are going to be voting
Speaker 2: to consider it as an investable asset.
Speaker 1: But I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: I hope I'm wrong here, but I don't think we're
Speaker 2: actually going to get any of those approved. And so,
Speaker 2: you know, I think that the maturity of bitcoin is
Speaker 2: continuing to improve, right in every cycle. This is true,
Speaker 2: which is that it's more mature than it was last cycle.
Speaker 2: The investor base is larger, there's been more adoption, the
Speaker 2: supply curve is more friendly to prices going up even faster. Right,
Speaker 2: But I do think that the fact that we have
Speaker 2: these this kind of like sticky capital, if you will,
Speaker 2: in terms of retirement accounts being able to access bitcoin
Speaker 2: and continue to allocate into it that could elongate the cycle, right,
Speaker 2: So that speculation, I don't know if it will. It's
Speaker 2: a possibility though, and so I think it's you know,
Speaker 2: it's up to each of us as investors to not
Speaker 2: dismiss that possibility and also to recognize if again, if
Speaker 2: market conditions change, then we can change as well.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: So typically on average, the Bitcoin bowl market peaks eighteen
Speaker 2: months after the having and so that puts us a
Speaker 2: basically November of twenty twenty five, which means we basically
Speaker 2: have eleven months to rock and roll on average. So
Speaker 2: maybe we peak eight months from now, maybe we peak
Speaker 2: twelve months from now, who knows, We'll see. But it's
Speaker 2: an important data point to reference for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, And you know, as you always say, we
Speaker 3: can change our minds based on the data, right and
Speaker 3: if things change course, but whatever reason, macroeconomic factor is,
Speaker 3: black Swan events, whatever it may be, you know, all
Speaker 3: those things can change the timeline exactly with regards to
Speaker 3: you all, coit and can we look at ethereum because
Speaker 3: we know eth recently just broke through four thousand again,
Speaker 3: but you know, with the pullback went back below and
Speaker 3: it's not far away from it. It's twenty twenty one
Speaker 3: all time high.
Speaker 1: Sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I mean I think EF looks good. I've
Speaker 2: been talking about this now for a while, which is,
Speaker 2: even if Eth improves, I think Solana still has the
Speaker 2: ability to be the faster horse in this race. And
Speaker 2: so you know, we've been talking about this soule eath
Speaker 2: chart now for quite some time.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about it. This is what I'm seeing on
Speaker 1: soul Eth.
Speaker 2: Right, So again, we had this beautiful breakout to new
Speaker 2: all time highs which occurred in August.
Speaker 1: On a relative basis, we cooled back down.
Speaker 2: This is where I did my rotation out of Ethereum
Speaker 2: into Solana. That was when Solona was trading between one
Speaker 2: twenty and then we had this beautiful breakout, retest rebound
Speaker 2: set up and made new highs on several occasions. Right,
Speaker 2: and look, I love seeing Ethereum participate in is rally.
Speaker 2: It's about time, right. You know, I'm not against Ethereum.
Speaker 2: We've talked about it again in the past. I think
Speaker 2: it was on the last show. I am not bearish
Speaker 2: on Ethereum. I am just more bullish on Solana in
Speaker 2: a market environment that is bullish, right, It's really that simple.
Speaker 2: And so now, given the fact that we've had this
Speaker 2: massive run in ETH and basically Solana has been just
Speaker 2: kind of consolidating sideways. It did make new all time highs,
Speaker 2: but it hasn't been as fast as Ethereum over the
Speaker 2: course of the past month or so.
Speaker 1: But what that's allowed, what that's set.
Speaker 2: Up for is once again another breakout, retest, rebound opportunity
Speaker 2: with a lot of clarity. This time, we really got
Speaker 2: this beautiful extension. Now we cool back down, Guys, what
Speaker 2: I'm seeing right now is thirty one point six percent
Speaker 2: implied relative upside for Solana relative to Ethereum. Right, so
Speaker 2: this is a significant amount of potential keyword, potential outperformance
Speaker 2: that can happen if this structure holds.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: So, again, as I look at this market right now,
Speaker 2: let's also talk about Solana.
Speaker 1: What are we seeing here. We're seeing so.
Speaker 2: Aana rebound on its fifty five day EMA, rebounding on
Speaker 2: the prior year to date highs. Right, beautiful price structure here.
Speaker 2: So not only on a relative basis are we seeing this,
Speaker 2: but we're also seeing it on an absolute basis. Just
Speaker 2: looking at Solana, we have the breakout the extension. Now
Speaker 2: we're getting the rebound, and now we're getting that potential
Speaker 2: excuse me, the retest, and now we're getting that potential
Speaker 2: rebound opportunity. So both on a relative and absolute basis,
Speaker 2: I think here right now, Solana makes a hell of
Speaker 2: a lot more sense than Ethereum. And again, I just
Speaker 2: want to clarify, it's not because I'm bearish on ETH.
Speaker 2: It's just because I'm more bullish on Solana in a
Speaker 2: bowl market environment.
Speaker 3: Right and essentially saying there's higher upside for Solana versus ETH.
Speaker 3: But it's not saying that the etherorem is not going
Speaker 3: to move it is. It is just the returns, the gains,
Speaker 3: the percentage gains is going to be lower on eth.
Speaker 2: Correct And by the way, if I'm wrong on that,
Speaker 2: I find out really quickly.
Speaker 1: Let me just share my screen on it. Again.
Speaker 2: Is because of the fact that you know, we're right
Speaker 2: on that level for soul eth. If we fall below
Speaker 2: this range and we fall down into this zone right here,
Speaker 2: that would I just got rid of it. If we
Speaker 2: fall below this you know, dotted zone that I just
Speaker 2: put on there, that would look like a failed breakout,
Speaker 2: which means that Ethereum is continuing to gain ground against
Speaker 2: Solana and that my thesis is incorrect. Right, So again
Speaker 2: I find out if I'm wrong really quick. Trust me,
Speaker 2: in this game of investing, in trading, you're wrong often,
Speaker 2: if not more often, than you are right. And so
Speaker 2: the big key to success for long term success is
Speaker 2: both the trader and investor, and as an investor is
Speaker 2: minimizing your punishment or the cost for being wrong. And
Speaker 2: so I'm totally okay if I take this swing and
Speaker 2: double down on my Ethereum position, excuse me, my Solana
Speaker 2: position instead of Ethereum. And if I'm wrong again, I
Speaker 2: find out quick and I can rotate that capital back
Speaker 2: into something like ethereum.
Speaker 1: Right. So I'm totally fine with this.
Speaker 2: And but this is where I think adding to Solana
Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 3: So Solana, I know, I think we had talked about
Speaker 3: a price prediction like nine hundred one thousand, I think
Speaker 3: around right, you're still holding that potential all time high.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think when we had talked about
Speaker 2: that price target, I think BTC was trading somewhere around
Speaker 2: sixty thousand, right, And I was saying, look, if we
Speaker 2: get to my one hundred and seventy five thousand price target.
Speaker 1: BTC basically has three x implied upside.
Speaker 2: And that could maybe tell us that, you know, Solana
Speaker 2: has maybe five x relative upside, and at the time
Speaker 2: it was trading around one hundred and fifty. So you
Speaker 2: just take five times one fifty, you get to seven fifty,
Speaker 2: eight hundred. You can maybe get to nine hundred if
Speaker 2: we use a six x multiplier, So around that range
Speaker 2: to me, still makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 3: Let's suck XRP do it. It's going bonkers. I don't
Speaker 3: think anybody saw it coming. It's back in the top three.
Speaker 3: It passed Salana on the market capitalist but we know
Speaker 3: these things fluctuate. What do you seeing on the charts?
Speaker 3: Is it looking bullish after that parabolic move or bears?
Speaker 1: Look?
Speaker 2: I think XRP looks fantastic. I got into it late,
Speaker 2: but I traded it on that upside move and I'm
Speaker 2: out of it right now, so I don't have a
Speaker 2: position in XRP. Congrats to everyone who has been in it.
Speaker 2: I think this is the key structure you really want
Speaker 2: to be paying attention to. First and foremost, we have
Speaker 2: a bullflag type dynamic. I often don't draw my bull
Speaker 2: flags the same way that most people do. In this case,
Speaker 2: I'm using a regression channel. So with bull flags, if
Speaker 2: you're just using a trend line, you're gonna have a
Speaker 2: lot of personal bias and subjectivity of drawing that trend line.
Speaker 2: You might draw a different trend line than I will,
Speaker 2: so on and so forth. But when we're using a
Speaker 2: regression analysis, it's a regression, right, there's no debate. It's objective,
Speaker 2: it is truth, it's statistical truth. And so what I'm
Speaker 2: seeing here is XRP. In this case, we're using the
Speaker 2: twenty one day EMA, basically flipping that into support for
Speaker 2: the first time during this massive acceleration, particularly after several
Speaker 2: months of just sideways range bound activity.
Speaker 1: Right, this basically had.
Speaker 2: Almost no upside and was just a hell of a
Speaker 2: lot of chop for five months or so. Now we
Speaker 2: get this massive extension, we're consolidating, we're using that twenty
Speaker 2: one day EMA as dynamic support. The thing that you
Speaker 2: should be looking for now, in my opinion, is basically
Speaker 2: a breakout above this range, basically above two sixty, and
Speaker 2: that would give confirmation not only in terms of making
Speaker 2: a higher high versus this price, level right here, but
Speaker 2: also for a breakout out of this regression channel. In
Speaker 2: my opinion, there's going to be nothing bearish about that whatsoever,
Speaker 2: and so my plan is to add back into XRP
Speaker 2: if we get that breakout. For those of you who
Speaker 2: have just been holding tight and sitting tight, I think
Speaker 2: you continue to sit tight so long as this price
Speaker 2: action shapes.
Speaker 1: Up the way I expect it to.
Speaker 2: If we fall below that twenty one day EMA and
Speaker 2: have a daily closed below it, you might want to
Speaker 2: consider reducing some exposure. If you're more of a trader,
Speaker 2: If you're an investor and you want to sit tight,
Speaker 2: by all means.
Speaker 1: Do whatever you want. I can't tell you what to do, but.
Speaker 2: I think that price structure as a whole, that's bullish
Speaker 2: price structure. We get this massive move, massive multiplier. Now
Speaker 2: we consolidate, we use a short term moving average is
Speaker 2: dynamic support. We start to get lift off, and now
Speaker 2: we look for the breakout. We look for that continuation move.
Speaker 2: I think that comes probably pretty soon.
Speaker 3: Do you have a all time high price addiction for
Speaker 3: this cycle? Anything you could share in the charge town
Speaker 3: listen higher.
Speaker 2: I haven't done this specific number on this, so look
Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing about Ripple is, and I'm
Speaker 2: not plugged in to the fundamental dynamics here, but I
Speaker 2: see these headlines right. So not only do we have
Speaker 2: some different ETF applications coming down the pipeline, I think
Speaker 2: it was yesterday that whatever the stable coin is called
Speaker 2: for Ripple is now coming out or is getting approval
Speaker 2: or something like that. Again, don't quote me on this, Tony.
Speaker 2: You probably know a hell of a lot more than
Speaker 2: I do. But so you know this is not news.
Speaker 2: Good things have been happening from a fundamental perspective for Ripple,
Speaker 2: basically providing a justification for the move up. This isn't
Speaker 2: just totally detached from fundamentals. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't,
Speaker 2: I don't know, But there is a fundamental story here
Speaker 2: that's driving price higher for right or for wrong.
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, the bias has to be
Speaker 1: up to the upside.
Speaker 2: But you know, Tony, you could ask me about any
Speaker 2: alt coin over the next six months. I think it's
Speaker 2: going a lot higher.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well it said total all coin market. Can we
Speaker 3: look at that and to see where I think I
Speaker 3: think we rejected a bit right at the If I'm
Speaker 3: not mistaken. If I was reading the charge correctly at
Speaker 3: a near d revisiting the all time high from twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one.
Speaker 1: Maybe we did. Let's go over this.
Speaker 2: I have another great chart here for total three in particular,
Speaker 2: looking at total three, let's see, I want to make
Speaker 2: sure we're doing x stable coins.
Speaker 1: This is it right here.
Speaker 2: So first and foremost, we have this beautiful breakout. I
Speaker 2: know I can't draw the horizontal range, but that's as
Speaker 2: good as we're going to get for the sake of
Speaker 2: this conversation. So beautiful break out there, and we got
Speaker 2: that extension. This price structure, to me, looks fantastic. You
Speaker 2: might be very curious. What is this statistical indicator that
Speaker 2: I have here in the lower bound of this chart.
Speaker 2: This is the one hundred and eighty eight day Williams
Speaker 2: percent are oscillator.
Speaker 1: One hundred and eighty eight.
Speaker 2: Days sounds super random, like I just pulled it out
Speaker 2: of a hat. But guess what, guys, it's half of
Speaker 2: a year, right, There's three hundred and sixty five days
Speaker 2: in a year. You divide that by two, it gets
Speaker 2: you know, one hundred and eighty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: So let's round up. Let's just call it one eighty eight.
Speaker 2: So we're right here at one hundred and eighty eight
Speaker 2: days on that Williams percent our oscillator. The thing that's
Speaker 2: standing out to me, guys, I want to highlight here
Speaker 2: when we get this over sold flash that occurred in
Speaker 2: the middle of last September of last year. What occurred
Speaker 2: after that was this massive over sold reading. I consider
Speaker 2: these to be momentum thrusts, right, and the way I
Speaker 2: see this is excessive amount of demand coming into this market.
Speaker 2: The thing that was very interesting for me, by the
Speaker 2: way we saw that same dynamic just occur more recently
Speaker 2: right where we got that over overbought reading that just
Speaker 2: occurred here in early November. And you'll notice really good
Speaker 2: things have continued to happen after that overbought reading. The
Speaker 2: thing that was very interesting to me when I pulled
Speaker 2: this chart up this morning is look at this kind
Speaker 2: of like double dip where we fell below overbought just
Speaker 2: yesterday and the day before. That's very similar to what
Speaker 2: occurred on November twenty first of last year.
Speaker 1: Right, And look, I.
Speaker 2: Want you to hi, I want you to pay attention
Speaker 2: to this as well. Right, I've drawn this kind of
Speaker 2: blue resistance range where we got that massive extension, we
Speaker 2: cooled down for a little bit, and then we finally
Speaker 2: got that breakout move that gave us that next leg
Speaker 2: higher from basically November December of twenty twenty three into
Speaker 2: those highs in March of this year of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: So what are we seeing right now? We're seeing something
Speaker 2: very similar, right. We get this massive overbought reading, we
Speaker 2: see price continue to go higher, we get that kind
Speaker 2: of double dip dynamic. And now the confirmation that we
Speaker 2: should all be looking for is for price this is
Speaker 2: total three exclume uoting stable coins, right, so this is
Speaker 2: minus USDT minus USDC. If we can get above this zone, right,
Speaker 2: this is going to be super critical that there. In
Speaker 2: my opinion, there would be nothing more bullish that we
Speaker 2: could ask for than this kind of second momentum thrust
Speaker 2: coupled with a breakout in terms of price action within
Speaker 2: a broader bull market, right, broader bull market. Who knows,
Speaker 2: maybe four months from now we're seeing another one of
Speaker 2: these consolidations occur.
Speaker 1: I don't think, you know, we'll see when we.
Speaker 2: Get there, right, I don't know, But all I know
Speaker 2: right now is we're going through this overbought period, and
Speaker 2: there's nothing bearish about being overbought right. And so this
Speaker 2: this for me right here, is giving once again an
Speaker 2: all clear in terms.
Speaker 1: Of all coins looking really, really strong.
Speaker 2: So being positioned in Altsier in my opinion, continues to
Speaker 2: make a hell of a lot of sense. And by
Speaker 2: the way, I'm someone who a month a month ago
Speaker 2: was not saying this. So I've now shifted my perspective
Speaker 2: based on the data, looking at the statistical indicators, looking
Speaker 2: at bitcoin dominance rollover and saying, hey, I think we
Speaker 2: should be listening to this price is the arbiter of
Speaker 2: truth and it's telling us a very important signal. We
Speaker 2: can either ignore it or we could try our best
Speaker 2: to take advantage of it.
Speaker 1: And manage risk.
Speaker 2: And every single time, you guys, I'm gonna take advantage
Speaker 2: of trends and try to manage risk.
Speaker 1: Like it's really that simple, right.
Speaker 2: I try to find correlations, I try to find signals,
Speaker 2: I try to find opportunities, and then I just manage risk.
Speaker 1: That's it.
Speaker 3: From the macro standpoint. Right with FED rate cuts and
Speaker 3: we got CPI numbers, I think today, are you concerned
Speaker 3: about anything or you think it's just business as usual,
Speaker 3: and this bull market continues into you know, the blow
Speaker 3: off top, and then things start to change.
Speaker 1: Data looks good, you know.
Speaker 2: So I continue to see the macroeconomic environment I've been
Speaker 2: saying it now for two years, resilient and dynamic. I
Speaker 2: know that the pace of disinflation is certainly moderated, and
Speaker 2: basically the year over year inflation readings have been flat
Speaker 2: to slightly higher, but in my opinion, not to a
Speaker 2: degree that would back the FED out of the rate
Speaker 2: cut regime. So, you know, I think we're going to
Speaker 2: be getting that cut. When is the when's the next
Speaker 2: FED meeting?
Speaker 1: Is it? Is it this week? Yeah?
Speaker 3: It's either this week or next week.
Speaker 2: Maybe I think I think it might be today and
Speaker 2: tomorrow and they're coming out.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Don't quote me on this.
Speaker 2: This is literally how little I care about the Fed,
Speaker 2: right here, right now. And this is someone who studied
Speaker 2: the FED for eleven years saying this. I think, right here,
Speaker 2: right now, we know for a fact that the FED
Speaker 2: is going to be cutting rates.
Speaker 1: We are in this rate cut regime.
Speaker 2: Cycle, and barring a material acceleration of inflation, the FED
Speaker 2: is going to keep cutting rates. Right, and so on
Speaker 2: a on a rate of change basis, you know, the
Speaker 2: shift from a rate hike regime to a rate cut
Speaker 2: regime is a creative to asset prices so long as
Speaker 2: the broader macroeconomic environment continues to be resilient and dynamic.
Speaker 2: The non farm payroll data came out last week looked fantastic.
Speaker 2: The ADP private payroll data came out last week looks fantastic.
Speaker 2: Wage growth is still super strong. We're going through a
Speaker 2: bit of a productivity boom. The Q four real GDP
Speaker 2: data from the Atlanta Fed is expected to come in
Speaker 2: at three point three percent annualized real growth. Guys, this
Speaker 2: can again there are data points I could cite where
Speaker 2: the economy doesn't look that great, right, But when we
Speaker 2: look at the weight of the evidence, the things that
Speaker 2: actually drive market conditions, things look like they're going to
Speaker 2: continue to support the uptrend in asset prices that we've had.
Speaker 2: And by the way, bull markets climb a wall of worry, right,
Speaker 2: So there's always going to be these risk dynamics that
Speaker 2: people can cite, but bull markets tend to climb them, right,
Speaker 2: because typically those risks are overstated and over exaggerated and
Speaker 2: don't come to fruition, right, So, how long have we
Speaker 2: been hearing about cracks in the labor market? How long
Speaker 2: have we been hearing about the commercial real estate market?
Speaker 2: How long have we been hearing about the consumer and
Speaker 2: credit and all of these different dynamics, and you know,
Speaker 2: the inverted yield curve and this, that and the other,
Speaker 2: the leading economic indicators. Right, being in contractionary territory for
Speaker 2: eighteen plus months, like all of these different things, I
Speaker 2: hate to say it, but I also love to say it.
Speaker 2: They just haven't mattered.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: We've been in a bull market, we've been in an
Speaker 2: up trend, and for me, I'd much rather trust the
Speaker 2: market than trust these specific data points, because the market
Speaker 2: and prices are the arbiter of truth.
Speaker 3: Do you think you know? This is saying markets are
Speaker 3: forward looking in despite you know, some of the things
Speaker 3: people may highlight. The overarching theme is the easy money
Speaker 3: cycle cutting rates, and we know, the quantitative easing, whatever
Speaker 3: they do with liquidity injections from Janet yelling and so forth.
Speaker 3: The markets know they're going to keep doing these things
Speaker 3: because if they don't, we're gonna have bigger problems.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it's a possibility and like, look, I see
Speaker 2: a lot of people on X or on different podcasts
Speaker 2: talking about you know, they believe we're going to go
Speaker 2: through some massive liquidity injection, some massive liquidity boom, as
Speaker 2: if the FED is going to launch this bazooka of QE.
Speaker 2: That's not my belief, right, All I believe is that
Speaker 2: the FED is going to moderately cut interest rates back
Speaker 2: towards three to three and a half percent. And historically,
Speaker 2: if we have an effective FED funds rate at three
Speaker 2: to three and a half percent, that's significantly elevated versus
Speaker 2: where it's been over the past twenty years, right, the
Speaker 2: past fifteen to twenty years, So that's still a relatively
Speaker 2: high level of interest rates. I hate to say it.
Speaker 2: And so you know, like I don't believe we're going
Speaker 2: in the QE. And if we're going in a QE,
Speaker 2: it's because we have a recession, which certainly is not
Speaker 2: going to be a creative to asset prices in the
Speaker 2: short term. It might, you know, you know, juice the
Speaker 2: pipes for a bull market in six months after the recession,
Speaker 2: but you know, we should not be hoping for that,
Speaker 2: right all we should all we should be hoping for
Speaker 2: is a relative shift in the monetary policy regime, going
Speaker 2: from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle
Speaker 2: where the FED is moderately, patiently and steadily lowering interest rates.
Speaker 2: They're not even buying assets in this environment, right, they're
Speaker 2: still doing balance sheet runoffs, so they're quite literally conducting
Speaker 2: QT as we speak, right, But now they're lowering interest rates,
Speaker 2: so that on net, it's a creative right, and it's
Speaker 2: just that differential rate of change dynamic that's what's really
Speaker 2: helping asset prices in this market environment.
Speaker 3: Caleb, always great insights, my friend, appreciate your knowledge. Thank
Speaker 3: you so much for joining me.
Speaker 1: Great to be here, man, Talk soon.