WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:00.640 XRP. 2 00:00:00.960 --> 00:00:03.359 In this case, we're using the twenty one day EMA, 3 00:00:03.839 --> 00:00:07.120 basically flipping that into support for the first time during 4 00:00:07.120 --> 00:00:12.679 this massive acceleration, particularly after several months of just sideways 5 00:00:12.800 --> 00:00:13.880 range bound activity. 6 00:00:13.960 --> 00:00:16.600 Right this basically had almost no upside and was just 7 00:00:16.640 --> 00:00:18.839 a hell of a lot of chop for five months 8 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:19.280 or so. 9 00:00:19.800 --> 00:00:24.640 Now we get this massive extension, we're consolidating, we're using 10 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:27.800 that twenty one day emas dynamic support. The thing that 11 00:00:27.839 --> 00:00:30.440 you should be looking for now, in my opinion, is 12 00:00:30.480 --> 00:00:33.640 basically a breakout above this range, basically above two sixty. 13 00:00:39.320 --> 00:00:41.520 This content is brought to you by v chain, which 14 00:00:41.560 --> 00:00:45.799 is a leading enterprise grade Layer one public blockchain spearheading 15 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:50.560 a digital revolution from a sustainable, highly scalable smart contract platform. 16 00:00:50.799 --> 00:00:54.359 The v chain blockchain has many unique features, which makes 17 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:58.000 it an ideal choice for Web three applications. V Chain 18 00:00:58.159 --> 00:01:02.840 is working with many great enterprises such as PWCGVONCI, BMW, 19 00:01:03.200 --> 00:01:06.519 and Walmart China. Most recently, they partnered with the Boston 20 00:01:06.599 --> 00:01:12.840 Consulting Group to build a revolutionary decentralized application ecosystem. I'm 21 00:01:12.840 --> 00:01:15.480 a big believer in this project. I have been since 22 00:01:15.519 --> 00:01:18.319 twenty eighteen. I've been a VET token holder for years. 23 00:01:18.719 --> 00:01:23.040 And this blockchain is highly scalable, great with security and speed, 24 00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:26.640 and it has low energy consumption. If you'd like to 25 00:01:26.719 --> 00:01:29.920 learn more about v chain, please visit vchain dot org. 26 00:01:30.239 --> 00:01:32.760 Link will be in a description. Welcome into the Thinking 27 00:01:32.760 --> 00:01:35.480 Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward and my guest 28 00:01:35.480 --> 00:01:39.079 today is Caleb Franzen, who's the founder of Cubic Analytics. 29 00:01:39.159 --> 00:01:42.319 Caleb, great to have you back on, dude. Let's get 30 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:42.799 into it, man. 31 00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:44.799 Every time we do these it's like a bullish signal, 32 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:47.799 so hopefully we get a little bit more fireworks here 33 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:49.560 in the days and weeks ahead, man, But really excited 34 00:01:49.599 --> 00:01:49.760 for this. 35 00:01:49.840 --> 00:01:51.239 Let's do it absolutely. 36 00:01:51.280 --> 00:01:54.040 You know, last time we spoke, you know, bitcoin since 37 00:01:54.079 --> 00:01:56.879 then went to one hundred and three thousand. The market 38 00:01:56.959 --> 00:01:59.040 rallied really strong. We got a bit of a pullback, 39 00:01:59.239 --> 00:02:01.640 but today big and creeping back over one hundred k. 40 00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:05.120 You know, what was your first impressions about bitcoin crack 41 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:06.680 in one hundred k, I. 42 00:02:06.640 --> 00:02:09.919 Mean huge accomplishment from the perspective of you know, investors 43 00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:11.599 who have been in this space for a long time, 44 00:02:11.719 --> 00:02:13.520 dreaming about the potential for us to get to one 45 00:02:13.560 --> 00:02:16.080 hundred thousand. But you know, it's like that classic meme 46 00:02:16.120 --> 00:02:18.280 of like we're all super focused, like looking at the charts, 47 00:02:18.280 --> 00:02:19.800 we hit one hundred k, we celebrate, and then we 48 00:02:19.879 --> 00:02:21.599 go right back to staying locked in, you know. So 49 00:02:22.120 --> 00:02:24.199 that was kind of the mentality for me, and I think, 50 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:26.479 you know, honestly, the most beautiful thing about this price 51 00:02:26.520 --> 00:02:28.400 action is that we've held it. 52 00:02:28.599 --> 00:02:28.759 Right. 53 00:02:28.800 --> 00:02:32.360 We haven't seen necessarily a decisive move in either direction, 54 00:02:32.439 --> 00:02:34.599 but I think that's generally to be expected when we 55 00:02:34.639 --> 00:02:37.759 get basically a fifty percent move in a month, right 56 00:02:37.840 --> 00:02:40.840 or in six weeks. So I think it's beautiful that 57 00:02:40.919 --> 00:02:44.759 the market is digesting price action here, it's getting re 58 00:02:45.280 --> 00:02:49.319 equilibrated at these levels, and investors now are getting acclimated 59 00:02:49.400 --> 00:02:52.759 to price trading here, getting ready hopefully for that next 60 00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:54.840 leg higher, right because we're in an up trend, the 61 00:02:54.879 --> 00:02:57.560 trend that is our friend accid prices trend. Like we 62 00:02:57.599 --> 00:02:59.960 just know this for a fact, and so you know, 63 00:03:00.159 --> 00:03:02.479 in that backdrop, in my opinion, it's just a matter 64 00:03:02.479 --> 00:03:04.479 of time before we take that next leg. 65 00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:08.120 Absolutely, So can you show us your bitcoin charts and 66 00:03:08.280 --> 00:03:11.199 what you're seeing right now and when we may see 67 00:03:11.639 --> 00:03:14.240 the next leg up? You know, is it come January 68 00:03:14.400 --> 00:03:16.919 or maybe around Christmas we get that Santa rally as 69 00:03:16.919 --> 00:03:17.439 they call. 70 00:03:17.319 --> 00:03:18.360 It, you know. 71 00:03:18.479 --> 00:03:20.879 So yeah, let's pull up, let's pull up some BTC here, 72 00:03:20.879 --> 00:03:24.479 I'm gonna share my screen. I have an XRP chart 73 00:03:24.479 --> 00:03:26.479 that we're gonna get to which is going to be 74 00:03:26.599 --> 00:03:27.800 absolutely fireworks. 75 00:03:27.840 --> 00:03:29.439 So I'm really excited to share that one. 76 00:03:29.599 --> 00:03:32.280 But the big thing for me right here, right now 77 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:35.520 is the fact that bitcoin is basically defending its twenty 78 00:03:35.560 --> 00:03:38.360 one day EMA, right. And why is the twenty one 79 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:39.560 day EMA so special? 80 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:40.240 It's not. 81 00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:42.319 It's just something that I've used for the past eight 82 00:03:42.400 --> 00:03:45.080 or nine years as a technician. A lot of people 83 00:03:45.159 --> 00:03:48.520 use the twenty day EMA or the SMA. I thought 84 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:50.039 twenty one was a little bit cooler because it's a 85 00:03:50.039 --> 00:03:52.199 Fibonacci number. So here we are, we're using twenty one 86 00:03:52.520 --> 00:03:54.599 and so generally speaking, what we see is that during 87 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:57.400 really strong trends, we tend to use this twenty one 88 00:03:57.439 --> 00:04:01.560 day EMA during this trend as dynamic support, right, And 89 00:04:01.599 --> 00:04:04.520 so so far, the fact that we've basically cooled off, 90 00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:07.199 we haven't had a daily close below that level, right, 91 00:04:07.199 --> 00:04:10.879 So we basically have one, two three daily wis below 92 00:04:10.919 --> 00:04:13.719 the twenty one day EMA, but we continue to defend 93 00:04:13.719 --> 00:04:16.399 it depending on how price action unfolds for the rest 94 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:18.839 of the day. Today, right, it's December eleventh, we could 95 00:04:18.920 --> 00:04:21.720 quite literally have the highest daily close of all time 96 00:04:21.759 --> 00:04:24.959 for bitcoin literally today, right. And look, maybe it doesn't 97 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:27.120 happen today, Maybe it happens tomorrow. Maybe it happens on 98 00:04:27.560 --> 00:04:29.639 what's today, today's Wednesday. So maybe it happens on Friday, 99 00:04:29.680 --> 00:04:30.720 maybe it happens on Saturday. 100 00:04:30.759 --> 00:04:31.199 Who knows. 101 00:04:31.240 --> 00:04:33.319 In my opinion, really doesn't matter. The fact of the 102 00:04:33.360 --> 00:04:37.240 matter is we're in an uptrend. Prices are trending higher. 103 00:04:37.279 --> 00:04:41.079 We're using short term dynamic moving averages as support. Within 104 00:04:41.160 --> 00:04:44.160 this trend, the market is consolidating. I think this is 105 00:04:44.160 --> 00:04:47.040 really important as well. Right, what's the definition of an uptrend? 106 00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:50.480 A market that produces higher highs and higher lows. So, 107 00:04:50.639 --> 00:04:53.519 by definition, half of the time we need to produce 108 00:04:53.560 --> 00:04:57.279 a higher low, right, which by also by definition, means 109 00:04:57.279 --> 00:04:59.199 we need to have a consolidation. We need to have 110 00:04:59.240 --> 00:05:02.800 a mini correction and an opportunity to produce that higher 111 00:05:02.839 --> 00:05:04.639 low so that we can go to the next phase, 112 00:05:04.759 --> 00:05:06.720 which is just a higher high. And so I think 113 00:05:06.839 --> 00:05:09.680 right now, my belief is that the lows of this 114 00:05:09.720 --> 00:05:11.439 recent move are basically over. 115 00:05:12.160 --> 00:05:13.240 Who knows, maybe we get. 116 00:05:13.160 --> 00:05:15.600 Another decline back to ninety two, back to ninety three, 117 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:17.680 maybe we get down in ninety. 118 00:05:17.480 --> 00:05:18.439 At the end of the day, guys. 119 00:05:18.439 --> 00:05:21.240 For me, genuinely, it really doesn't matter, because the fact 120 00:05:21.240 --> 00:05:23.920 of the matter is we continue to produce higher highs 121 00:05:23.920 --> 00:05:26.399 and higher lows, which is an up trend which only 122 00:05:26.399 --> 00:05:29.360 occur during bull markets. Bada bing, bada boom. We're in 123 00:05:29.360 --> 00:05:31.319 a bull market. I always learned that's the time where 124 00:05:31.319 --> 00:05:33.439 you make money as an investor, right, You have to 125 00:05:33.480 --> 00:05:37.279 make money as an investor by owning assets during bull markets. 126 00:05:37.560 --> 00:05:40.560 So this is the time to sit tight, enjoy the ride, 127 00:05:41.120 --> 00:05:42.759 and not get shaken out. Right, That's going to be 128 00:05:42.759 --> 00:05:44.759 the biggest challenge here during the course of this bull 129 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:47.160 market is to not get shaken out. And I understand 130 00:05:47.160 --> 00:05:49.360 a lot of all coins got really punished here in 131 00:05:49.399 --> 00:05:51.519 the past few days. We've given back a lot of gains. 132 00:05:51.560 --> 00:05:54.079 I'm a victim of that myself, right. My trading portfolio 133 00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:56.600 came back pretty aggressively in the last few days, and 134 00:05:56.639 --> 00:05:58.360 I've been loving this price action over the course of 135 00:05:58.399 --> 00:06:00.439 the last sixteen eighteen hours. 136 00:06:01.680 --> 00:06:03.600 But this is just what comes with. 137 00:06:03.519 --> 00:06:06.120 The territory, especially if you're a trader in crypto, right, 138 00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:08.600 I mean, you have to be prepared for these significant 139 00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:12.000 ebbs and flows, liquidations that basically give us. 140 00:06:11.920 --> 00:06:13.120 Fuel for the next leg higher. 141 00:06:13.160 --> 00:06:15.920 So as I look at things right now, man, I 142 00:06:15.920 --> 00:06:18.040 swear to God, sometimes I really do feel like a permeable. 143 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:21.000 But you know, it's just we are in the condition 144 00:06:21.560 --> 00:06:24.519 that is sufficient to be bullish and is paying off 145 00:06:24.560 --> 00:06:27.319 to be bullish. And so until those conditions change, Tony, 146 00:06:27.319 --> 00:06:29.399 We've been talking about this every single time I come 147 00:06:29.439 --> 00:06:32.360 on the show. When the facts change, when the data moves, 148 00:06:32.639 --> 00:06:36.160 when market conditions change, I will also change. It just 149 00:06:36.199 --> 00:06:38.720 hasn't been the case that I should be changing my perspective. 150 00:06:38.920 --> 00:06:40.720 So I'm going to continue to come on here and 151 00:06:40.800 --> 00:06:43.279 sound really bullish, not because I'm choosing to be bullish, 152 00:06:43.319 --> 00:06:45.879 but because the objective conclusions are telling me to be bullish. 153 00:06:45.959 --> 00:06:46.959 So I have to respect that. 154 00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:51.600 Well said, Yeah, and I know that you are data focused. 155 00:06:51.639 --> 00:06:53.519 A lot of people, you know you viewed them on 156 00:06:53.560 --> 00:06:56.040 social media. They're very sentiment focused, and that's because they 157 00:06:56.040 --> 00:06:58.240 don't know how to interpret the data. And I know, 158 00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:01.240 like I follow your newsletter, and you include a lot 159 00:07:01.240 --> 00:07:03.639 of things with the macro and so forth too, And 160 00:07:03.720 --> 00:07:08.120 folks have to really change their mindset from the mainstream 161 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:11.199 financial news and look at data and see what story 162 00:07:11.279 --> 00:07:14.879 is being told versus narratives, for sure. 163 00:07:14.959 --> 00:07:16.399 And one of the things that I say is I 164 00:07:16.439 --> 00:07:19.600 promise you I could come on here and sound ultra barish. 165 00:07:19.839 --> 00:07:22.319 The data exists for me to come on. 166 00:07:22.319 --> 00:07:25.600 Here or any podcast for that matter, and sound ultra bearish. 167 00:07:25.879 --> 00:07:28.319 There are a myriad of data points for the economy 168 00:07:28.319 --> 00:07:31.600 that don't look great, that look outright bearish. But if 169 00:07:31.600 --> 00:07:34.079 we want to be objective analysts, and if we want 170 00:07:34.120 --> 00:07:35.759 to use macro, if we want to use this data point, 171 00:07:35.759 --> 00:07:37.560 if we want to use that data point, we need 172 00:07:37.600 --> 00:07:40.040 to come to the weight of the evidence. Our conclusion 173 00:07:40.079 --> 00:07:41.839 needs to be based on the weight of the evidence. 174 00:07:42.120 --> 00:07:44.120 So again, I can focus on these things and sound 175 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:45.839 super bullish. I can focus on these things and sound 176 00:07:45.879 --> 00:07:48.079 super bearish. But if we want to be objective, if 177 00:07:48.079 --> 00:07:51.480 we want to be truth seekers in the market and 178 00:07:51.519 --> 00:07:55.160 as investors and make hopefully educated decisions, we need to 179 00:07:55.160 --> 00:07:56.160 look at the weight of the evidence. 180 00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:56.399 Right. 181 00:07:56.439 --> 00:07:57.800 So you know, there's a lot of these people I 182 00:07:57.800 --> 00:08:00.800 wan't name names, not this time at least, who only 183 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:03.120 focus on one side and that's on both sides of 184 00:08:03.120 --> 00:08:06.160 the spectrum here, right, But I promise you one thing, 185 00:08:06.199 --> 00:08:08.839 I will always come on here and hopefully look at 186 00:08:08.839 --> 00:08:11.439 the weight of the evidence and an objective conclusion based 187 00:08:11.439 --> 00:08:13.720 on the weight of that evidence to guide my decision 188 00:08:13.720 --> 00:08:15.720 making in the market. And then on top of that, 189 00:08:16.199 --> 00:08:18.560 you know we've also talked about this before, right, is 190 00:08:18.600 --> 00:08:21.160 that you know, everyone can have their opinion. There's only 191 00:08:21.240 --> 00:08:23.800 one truth in the market, and that's price. Right, So 192 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:26.759 everything starts and ends with price. If we want to 193 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:28.600 make money as an investor, we have to buy low, 194 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:31.680 sell high, or buy high and sell even higher. And 195 00:08:31.720 --> 00:08:34.720 so by definition, everything starts and ends with price. So 196 00:08:34.759 --> 00:08:36.840 if we just focus on price action, if we just 197 00:08:36.840 --> 00:08:39.679 focus on technical indicators, if we just focus on price structure, 198 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:41.759 that in and of itself is going to be a 199 00:08:41.759 --> 00:08:45.039 sufficient guide to make educated decisions in this market and 200 00:08:45.080 --> 00:08:46.440 to stay on the right side of the trend. And 201 00:08:46.480 --> 00:08:48.399 that's basically what I've done for the past twenty months. 202 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:52.799 M Yeah, you've been spot on, man. What do you 203 00:08:52.840 --> 00:08:55.840 think the next major target is for bigcoin? Let's say 204 00:08:55.879 --> 00:08:58.879 we consolidate here right, and then we start moving up. 205 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:01.559 What do you think that? And I know some people 206 00:09:01.600 --> 00:09:04.080 use fibonacci, some people use Elliott wave, what do you 207 00:09:04.080 --> 00:09:04.679 think it might be? 208 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:07.519 So, I mean, we've talked about in the past on 209 00:09:07.639 --> 00:09:09.960 my target for this breakout move was gonna get us 210 00:09:10.000 --> 00:09:12.919 to basically ninety five k let me just get this 211 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:15.320 prime them ready before I share my screen and look, 212 00:09:15.399 --> 00:09:17.200 you know we've we've hit that level. 213 00:09:17.279 --> 00:09:21.480 Now I'll share my screen. Bought a bing, bought a boom. 214 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:23.799 Okay, So you know, if we take the high to 215 00:09:23.840 --> 00:09:29.279 the low of that March to August consolidation in logarithmic scale, 216 00:09:29.279 --> 00:09:31.759 that fibonacci got us to ninety five thousand, let's just 217 00:09:31.840 --> 00:09:34.799 round up a little bit, so we're now holding above 218 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:37.279 that level. It could even make the case that we've 219 00:09:37.279 --> 00:09:39.919 flipped it into support here. So I think one thing 220 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:42.519 that we can do, and I don't do this too often, 221 00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:44.960 but a lot of traders have a lot of success 222 00:09:45.000 --> 00:09:47.919 doing this, is we could add the two hundred and 223 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:49.679 sixty one point Oh, I already have it on my screen, 224 00:09:49.679 --> 00:09:52.759 it's just way higher. So there it is, the two 225 00:09:52.799 --> 00:09:54.240 sixty one point eight. So that gets us to one 226 00:09:54.320 --> 00:09:55.200 hundred and forty two. 227 00:09:55.000 --> 00:09:56.080 Thousand, six hundred. 228 00:09:57.519 --> 00:09:59.360 I don't think we're gonna have a straight shot of 229 00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:02.039 a forty percent gain from here to get there. It's 230 00:10:02.039 --> 00:10:04.320 going to be ebbs and flows en route. You know, 231 00:10:04.440 --> 00:10:06.600 I've been very vocal that my price target for this 232 00:10:06.639 --> 00:10:09.000 cycle is at least one seventy five. So that's telling 233 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:11.080 you at least where I think we're going long term 234 00:10:11.159 --> 00:10:13.519 the cycle over the course of the next let's call it, 235 00:10:13.559 --> 00:10:16.120 eight to fifteen months. But look, I think that one 236 00:10:16.279 --> 00:10:19.000 forty two level does make a lot of sense if 237 00:10:19.000 --> 00:10:21.840 we want to focus in a little bit tighter on 238 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:22.679 this price action. 239 00:10:22.759 --> 00:10:24.960 This one's this gets a little tricky here. 240 00:10:25.320 --> 00:10:27.559 We could produce a Fibonacci from the high to the 241 00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:29.399 low of the price action just a few days ago, 242 00:10:29.679 --> 00:10:31.799 and that gets us to one twelve, And so I 243 00:10:31.840 --> 00:10:34.240 think that's pretty valid for a short term target. We 244 00:10:34.240 --> 00:10:36.240 can get to one twelve, and look, you know, we're 245 00:10:36.279 --> 00:10:40.240 talking about basically less than twelve percent upside to get there, right, 246 00:10:40.279 --> 00:10:43.039 It's not it's not a significant move that can literally 247 00:10:43.120 --> 00:10:45.320 happen over the course of a twelve over twelve hours 248 00:10:45.480 --> 00:10:49.039 and six hours for bitcoin, right, So look, I think 249 00:10:49.120 --> 00:10:51.120 keeping an eye there on that one to twelve makes 250 00:10:51.159 --> 00:10:51.720 a lot of sense. 251 00:10:51.720 --> 00:10:52.519 And then if we want to be. 252 00:10:53.360 --> 00:10:57.759 You know, what's the word that I'm looking here, If 253 00:10:57.759 --> 00:10:59.960 we want to be hi, I'm literally blanking on this way, 254 00:11:00.320 --> 00:11:03.480 my bad. If we want to be really optimistic, though, 255 00:11:03.519 --> 00:11:05.240 we can target that one forty two, and I think, 256 00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:09.120 you know, there is a statistical or technical justification for 257 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:10.759 us to get there, And in my opinion, it's just 258 00:11:10.799 --> 00:11:11.919 a matter of when, not if. 259 00:11:12.279 --> 00:11:15.600 So let's see how it plays out. 260 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:19.360 You know, we've seen some historical patterns with seasonality, right, 261 00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:23.679 and that come Q four, you see these strong rallies 262 00:11:24.279 --> 00:11:29.000 usually into January, some of it continues, but then sell 263 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:33.159 it may go away summertime, but then come back September October. 264 00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:35.960 Do you think it might play out like that? And 265 00:11:35.960 --> 00:11:37.960 obviously we don't have a crystal ball, but that this 266 00:11:38.039 --> 00:11:41.320 thing you mentioned, you know, eight to what ten months 267 00:11:41.399 --> 00:11:44.799 or so, that this thing might play out till late 268 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:45.679 twenty twenty five. 269 00:11:46.399 --> 00:11:47.960 Yeah, I mean I think we're I think we're going 270 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:50.200 to play out until late twenty twenty five. We could 271 00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:53.279 go longer, right, I think famous last words. But this 272 00:11:53.320 --> 00:11:56.360 cycle quite literally is different with the ETFs in place, 273 00:11:56.480 --> 00:11:59.639 and I think with Sailor executing his strategy at scale, 274 00:11:59.639 --> 00:12:01.639 and now a lot of these bitcoin mining companies trying 275 00:12:01.639 --> 00:12:04.200 to do the same and replicate that. And so I know, 276 00:12:04.919 --> 00:12:10.120 for example, yesterday Microsoft voted against considering bitcoin as an 277 00:12:10.159 --> 00:12:11.039 investable asset. 278 00:12:11.360 --> 00:12:12.159 That's okay, it's just. 279 00:12:12.200 --> 00:12:15.759 A matter of time in my opinion, but probably not 280 00:12:15.799 --> 00:12:20.360 happening this cycle. I would urge investors to be essentially 281 00:12:20.399 --> 00:12:22.399 to pump the brakes on that narrative. We're going to 282 00:12:22.440 --> 00:12:24.639 get those announcements that companies are going to be voting 283 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:26.639 to consider it as an investable asset. 284 00:12:26.679 --> 00:12:28.120 But I hope I'm wrong. 285 00:12:28.159 --> 00:12:29.559 I hope I'm wrong here, but I don't think we're 286 00:12:29.559 --> 00:12:32.639 actually going to get any of those approved. And so, 287 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:37.360 you know, I think that the maturity of bitcoin is 288 00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:40.919 continuing to improve, right in every cycle. This is true, 289 00:12:40.960 --> 00:12:43.080 which is that it's more mature than it was last cycle. 290 00:12:43.120 --> 00:12:46.720 The investor base is larger, there's been more adoption, the 291 00:12:46.759 --> 00:12:51.600 supply curve is more friendly to prices going up even faster. Right, 292 00:12:53.799 --> 00:12:55.840 But I do think that the fact that we have 293 00:12:55.919 --> 00:12:58.440 these this kind of like sticky capital, if you will, 294 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:01.279 in terms of retirement accounts being able to access bitcoin 295 00:13:02.440 --> 00:13:06.679 and continue to allocate into it that could elongate the cycle, right, 296 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:10.440 So that speculation, I don't know if it will. It's 297 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:13.000 a possibility though, and so I think it's you know, 298 00:13:13.039 --> 00:13:14.759 it's up to each of us as investors to not 299 00:13:14.879 --> 00:13:18.799 dismiss that possibility and also to recognize if again, if 300 00:13:18.799 --> 00:13:22.000 market conditions change, then we can change as well. 301 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:22.240 Right. 302 00:13:22.279 --> 00:13:26.639 So typically on average, the Bitcoin bowl market peaks eighteen 303 00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:29.120 months after the having and so that puts us a 304 00:13:29.159 --> 00:13:31.799 basically November of twenty twenty five, which means we basically 305 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:34.519 have eleven months to rock and roll on average. So 306 00:13:34.559 --> 00:13:36.360 maybe we peak eight months from now, maybe we peak 307 00:13:36.399 --> 00:13:40.159 twelve months from now, who knows, We'll see. But it's 308 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:42.679 an important data point to reference for sure. 309 00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:46.600 Yeah, absolutely, And you know, as you always say, we 310 00:13:46.639 --> 00:13:48.759 can change our minds based on the data, right and 311 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:52.960 if things change course, but whatever reason, macroeconomic factor is, 312 00:13:53.039 --> 00:13:55.639 black Swan events, whatever it may be, you know, all 313 00:13:55.679 --> 00:13:59.919 those things can change the timeline exactly with regards to 314 00:13:59.960 --> 00:14:03.480 you all, coit and can we look at ethereum because 315 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:07.360 we know eth recently just broke through four thousand again, 316 00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:10.679 but you know, with the pullback went back below and 317 00:14:10.759 --> 00:14:13.120 it's not far away from it. It's twenty twenty one 318 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:14.600 all time high. 319 00:14:14.639 --> 00:14:14.879 Sure. 320 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:17.960 Yeah, Look, I mean I think EF looks good. I've 321 00:14:17.960 --> 00:14:19.919 been talking about this now for a while, which is, 322 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:24.600 even if Eth improves, I think Solana still has the 323 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:27.279 ability to be the faster horse in this race. And 324 00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:29.399 so you know, we've been talking about this soule eath 325 00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:31.080 chart now for quite some time. 326 00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:34.279 Let's talk about it. This is what I'm seeing on 327 00:14:34.320 --> 00:14:34.840 soul Eth. 328 00:14:35.080 --> 00:14:38.320 Right, So again, we had this beautiful breakout to new 329 00:14:38.360 --> 00:14:40.039 all time highs which occurred in August. 330 00:14:40.080 --> 00:14:42.519 On a relative basis, we cooled back down. 331 00:14:42.559 --> 00:14:44.960 This is where I did my rotation out of Ethereum 332 00:14:45.000 --> 00:14:47.600 into Solana. That was when Solona was trading between one 333 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:52.200 twenty and then we had this beautiful breakout, retest rebound 334 00:14:52.240 --> 00:14:55.519 set up and made new highs on several occasions. Right, 335 00:14:55.840 --> 00:14:58.840 and look, I love seeing Ethereum participate in is rally. 336 00:14:58.879 --> 00:15:01.720 It's about time, right. You know, I'm not against Ethereum. 337 00:15:01.720 --> 00:15:04.039 We've talked about it again in the past. I think 338 00:15:04.039 --> 00:15:06.039 it was on the last show. I am not bearish 339 00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:09.159 on Ethereum. I am just more bullish on Solana in 340 00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:12.519 a market environment that is bullish, right, It's really that simple. 341 00:15:12.799 --> 00:15:14.919 And so now, given the fact that we've had this 342 00:15:15.080 --> 00:15:18.360 massive run in ETH and basically Solana has been just 343 00:15:18.440 --> 00:15:21.000 kind of consolidating sideways. It did make new all time highs, 344 00:15:21.039 --> 00:15:23.919 but it hasn't been as fast as Ethereum over the 345 00:15:23.919 --> 00:15:24.960 course of the past month or so. 346 00:15:25.519 --> 00:15:27.360 But what that's allowed, what that's set. 347 00:15:27.240 --> 00:15:31.759 Up for is once again another breakout, retest, rebound opportunity 348 00:15:32.080 --> 00:15:34.279 with a lot of clarity. This time, we really got 349 00:15:34.279 --> 00:15:37.559 this beautiful extension. Now we cool back down, Guys, what 350 00:15:37.600 --> 00:15:40.879 I'm seeing right now is thirty one point six percent 351 00:15:41.039 --> 00:15:46.399 implied relative upside for Solana relative to Ethereum. Right, so 352 00:15:46.559 --> 00:15:50.759 this is a significant amount of potential keyword, potential outperformance 353 00:15:51.120 --> 00:15:53.759 that can happen if this structure holds. 354 00:15:54.039 --> 00:15:54.240 Right. 355 00:15:54.279 --> 00:15:56.600 So, again, as I look at this market right now, 356 00:15:57.240 --> 00:15:58.639 let's also talk about Solana. 357 00:15:58.679 --> 00:16:00.360 What are we seeing here. We're seeing so. 358 00:16:00.360 --> 00:16:04.039 Aana rebound on its fifty five day EMA, rebounding on 359 00:16:04.080 --> 00:16:07.840 the prior year to date highs. Right, beautiful price structure here. 360 00:16:08.039 --> 00:16:10.159 So not only on a relative basis are we seeing this, 361 00:16:10.200 --> 00:16:12.240 but we're also seeing it on an absolute basis. Just 362 00:16:12.240 --> 00:16:15.879 looking at Solana, we have the breakout the extension. Now 363 00:16:15.879 --> 00:16:19.039 we're getting the rebound, and now we're getting that potential 364 00:16:19.120 --> 00:16:21.240 excuse me, the retest, and now we're getting that potential 365 00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:25.000 rebound opportunity. So both on a relative and absolute basis, 366 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:27.320 I think here right now, Solana makes a hell of 367 00:16:27.360 --> 00:16:30.279 a lot more sense than Ethereum. And again, I just 368 00:16:30.279 --> 00:16:32.840 want to clarify, it's not because I'm bearish on ETH. 369 00:16:32.919 --> 00:16:35.879 It's just because I'm more bullish on Solana in a 370 00:16:35.879 --> 00:16:37.440 bowl market environment. 371 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:42.320 Right and essentially saying there's higher upside for Solana versus ETH. 372 00:16:42.399 --> 00:16:44.519 But it's not saying that the etherorem is not going 373 00:16:44.600 --> 00:16:47.840 to move it is. It is just the returns, the gains, 374 00:16:47.840 --> 00:16:50.080 the percentage gains is going to be lower on eth. 375 00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:54.279 Correct And by the way, if I'm wrong on that, 376 00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:55.480 I find out really quickly. 377 00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:56.960 Let me just share my screen on it. Again. 378 00:16:57.559 --> 00:17:00.759 Is because of the fact that you know, we're right 379 00:17:00.840 --> 00:17:04.079 on that level for soul eth. If we fall below 380 00:17:04.119 --> 00:17:06.279 this range and we fall down into this zone right here, 381 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:08.279 that would I just got rid of it. If we 382 00:17:08.319 --> 00:17:10.519 fall below this you know, dotted zone that I just 383 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:13.039 put on there, that would look like a failed breakout, 384 00:17:13.079 --> 00:17:17.319 which means that Ethereum is continuing to gain ground against 385 00:17:17.319 --> 00:17:20.640 Solana and that my thesis is incorrect. Right, So again 386 00:17:20.680 --> 00:17:23.559 I find out if I'm wrong really quick. Trust me, 387 00:17:23.839 --> 00:17:27.039 in this game of investing, in trading, you're wrong often, 388 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:29.599 if not more often, than you are right. And so 389 00:17:29.920 --> 00:17:32.160 the big key to success for long term success is 390 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:35.480 both the trader and investor, and as an investor is 391 00:17:35.599 --> 00:17:39.000 minimizing your punishment or the cost for being wrong. And 392 00:17:39.039 --> 00:17:41.799 so I'm totally okay if I take this swing and 393 00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:44.640 double down on my Ethereum position, excuse me, my Solana 394 00:17:44.680 --> 00:17:48.279 position instead of Ethereum. And if I'm wrong again, I 395 00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:50.279 find out quick and I can rotate that capital back 396 00:17:50.279 --> 00:17:51.319 into something like ethereum. 397 00:17:51.440 --> 00:17:53.200 Right. So I'm totally fine with this. 398 00:17:53.759 --> 00:17:56.920 And but this is where I think adding to Solana 399 00:17:56.960 --> 00:17:57.680 makes a lot of sense. 400 00:17:58.519 --> 00:18:02.240 So Solana, I know, I think we had talked about 401 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:04.720