Speaker 1: Hey guys, welcome to Last Call College Football Week three.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Madden.
Speaker 1: We're alive on various different channels, Kick Rumble and of
course wager Talk YouTube.
Speaker 2: We got a loaded show today.
Speaker 1: Please hit that like, hit that retweet button, hit the
subscribe button over on YouTube, as well as hit that
notification bell so you know exactly when we're going live now.
Speaker 2: I'm dro Madden, like.
Speaker 1: I said, filling in for Kelly in Vegas today, but
Aria will be back tomorrow to take you over the NFL.
Today is all about college football, and we got an
absolutely loaded show. Art to Caesar from the Westgate super
Book will be stepping in first. Yanni the Greek will
then be following up, and we've got Teddy covers to
finish off the show. It's gonna be a great one here.
I can hardly wait for these games to kick off
here at noon. Now, if you've got questions for our handicappers,
make sure you do drop in the comment section there.
We're going to try to get to all of your questions,
all of your comments today, so make sure you do
drop them.
Speaker 2: And as we go over these games, open your.
Speaker 1: Odds logics page so that you can follow the best
of these lines. You want to make sure you get
the best of the numbers. But without delay, let's bring
art to Caesar in from the super Gate sorry from
Westgate super book art.
Speaker 3: That was a.
Speaker 2: Mountful this morning.
Speaker 1: It's Saturday morning here, it's only nine am my time,
it's eight am.
Speaker 2: I guess your time though.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe, happy to be here with you, and you know,
a lot of fun games to talk about. Better weekend
than we had last weekend as far as games of
interest in college football.
Speaker 5: So excited to get going.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Okay, So what are we looking at? You're
rolling in two week three here? How are the books
faring thus far in the first couple of weeks in
college football?
Speaker 5: You know, it's kind of been a mixed bag for US.
Week one.
Speaker 4: Leave week zero out of it because not much to
talk about there. But Week one was really good for US.
Week two was not so good for US. So we've
kind of been split as far as we go on
the early college football season.
Speaker 1: Okay, so looking at today, we've got some big favorites
again today we know, like the Ohio State Bauck guys
last week absolutely dominated covering that spread. Where is the
biggest spread that you're seeing that you need the opposite
side where you need the dog.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: I would say the biggest one right now is an
early game Oklahoma. We open Oklahoma as low as twenty
one and a half. We got to twenty four and
a half this morning on Temple. That is at Temple.
We need Temple in the game. Despite the nibbleback at
Temple at twenty four and a half, all the early
money on Oklahoma and that early twenty one and a
half money was sharp, and they even laid twenty three
which took us to twenty four. So early on and
that's a nine am Vegas kickoff time. We will need
Temple against the sinners.
Speaker 1: Okay, big noon easter and looking for that Temple cover there.
If you want to be on the side of the
books or I'd rather be on the side of the
books than the public. And talking about that public money,
where's the majority of public money and love coming today?
Speaker 4: You know, there's a lot of action on some of
these pretty good games. I would say, if you just
want to talk Florida LSU it's one of the big
games of the day and actually our biggest need of
the day right now, when we look at that game,
you know that opened as high as Florida for US
plus eight and a half. We saw pretty good money
sharpwise on Florida early at the eight and a half
and the seven and a half, and then even saw
the public pile in on Florida. Take a shot with
Florida on the money line, we're now LSU minus six
and a half, so we've gotten under the touchdown there.
We will need LSU in the game. We will also
need Old Miss in a game against Arkansas. Obviously Old
Miss has some issues with their quarterback. He was supposedly
in a walking boot all week. Looks like he's a
game time decision. Arkansas took money as high as eight
and a half as well. That's also under the touchdown
under seven minus six and a half Old Miss.
Speaker 1: Okay, and then when we look at that sharp money,
where are the sharps put in their money today?
Speaker 2: And what do you need on that side of it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, sharp money, I would say Georgia Tech is pretty sharp.
That's an early game as well. They took four, they
even took three. We're now Georgia Tech. If you take
three on that, you're laying minus one twenty on that,
So sharp money's been on Georgia Tech all week. Sharp
money early was on Pit four and a half five
and a half, got all the way up to seven
and a half. There was a nibbleback on West Virginia
this morning at seven and a half, so we're seven there.
Speaker 5: That was early sharp money.
Speaker 4: Sharp money was on Liberty minus five, minus five and
a half up to six against Bowling Green very early
in the week. They took that. And here's one that
they took at multiple numbers. They laid fourteen all the
way up to seventeen with Arizona State at home against
Texas State. We're now seventeen and a half on the game.
Multiple sharps and multiple sharp groups laid multiple different numbers
on Arizona State. Texas State will be a big need.
Speaker 5: For US late.
Speaker 1: Wow. Okay, So when we're looking at this as well,
is there any underdogs, large underdogs that people are betting
straight up on the money line that you just need
that favorite to come out nice and strong.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say probably the one that has taken
some pretty good money line action. Georgia Tech is one.
We had mentioned the money that had come on on
Georgie Tech. They took Georgia Tech. They also took Vanderbilt.
They took a couple shots, but Vanderbilt on the money
line that was as high as you know, plus four
and a half plus four one point. South Carolina is
now minus three, So they saw pretty good, you know,
as they like to call it, a little sprinkle on Vanderbilt.
Speaker 1: So you did see that, Okay, Well, it sounds like
there's a lot of areas where you're needing those dogs
to be able to come in with those straight up
winds or covering that spread.
Speaker 2: Where is the biggest.
Speaker 1: Game that you really need that dog or that favorite
to cover.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would think I'll go back to that LSU
Florida game right now. That is our biggest need, another
need for US, and it's a big number. We need
them to cover. Ohio State. They took Ohio. They took
Ohio at thirty two, They took Ohio at thirty one.
We're now Ohio State minus twenty nine and a half.
So if the Buckeyes can come out and win that
game by five plus touchdowns, it would be a really
good result for US. I don't know people think it
maybe I don't know. Ohio State will play nice with
the in state rival. Who knows, but they did take
Ohio at those big numbers.
Speaker 2: I'm shocked by that.
Speaker 1: I'm a Bokays fan here and we saw what they
did last week. Maybe people are reacting to maybe that
little bit of a letdown spot. But I tell you this,
Bakays teams should come out nice and strong. Do you
get a lot of first half first quarter money coming
in as well?
Speaker 4: You know, as far as the first quarter goes, we
don't do first quarter at every college football game. We
usually like to pick select games games of the day,
like today, I believe we just have three. We have
Georgia Tennessee. We have Notre Dame, Texas A and M.
We have LSU Florida. So we only kind of cherry
picked the best games. The first half. I always say
with the first half because even if you're half a
point difference, because it's the first half bet, you'll see
those bets come in where sometimes on the full game
you could be half a point off and it's not
that big of a difference, whereas some of the betters
look to take let's say most places have seventeen on
a first half for a side. We have seventeen and
a half, you'll see those seventeen and a halfs get
bought up real quick, especially if you're the only one
in the market sitting off you know, where everyone else
has a number, So that happens a lot.
Speaker 1: Okay, And then we do have a question in the chat,
hopefully you have an answer for this. Where are you
seeing the money coming in with Wisconsin and Alabama?
Speaker 2: Alabama?
Speaker 1: They're saying what from twenty one and a half to
nineteen and a half? Are you seeing that love coming
for Alabama in this game?
Speaker 5: Wisconsin?
Speaker 4: So, like the guy the question, perfect question, we were
as high as twenty one on that game. We're now
nineteen and a half on that game. But sometimes what
happens on the game, and it's not anything sharp or
anything as far as the big bet goes that moved us.
Speaker 5: Sometimes we're just moving with the market.
Speaker 4: Sometimes maybe we don't get hit, we don't get better
on that particular game, and we just move with the market.
Obviously a couple of bets here and there on every side.
I think eventually, even though it's an early kick, you'll
probably see someone want to come lay nineteen and a
half with Alabama because now it's well under the three touchdowns.
Speaker 5: But for us, that was us just moving with the
market on that game.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: Now we are getting questions about where that cleansing game
opened at. I'm trying to find it here on the
Odds logic screen. Art, do you know where that one
opened and where you've got it right now?
Speaker 5: Yeah, we were as high as four and a half
on the game.
Speaker 4: We were four and a half quick though barely took
a bet moved to four, but we did take early
money on Georgia Tech at four and three and a half.
We're now sitting Georgia Tech three. Clemson will be in
early need for us, and like I said, there were
people at Georgia Tech on the money line.
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, Art, I wish you guys all the best
in all of those bets today. Hopefully you're on the
right side of things or the public.
Speaker 2: We'll see. We'll see how things go today.
Speaker 1: But thank you so much for joining us here on
last call here on wager Talk you guys, Art Diseasar
from the Westgate Superbook.
Speaker 2: I got it out this time.
Speaker 5: Art.
Speaker 2: I hope to see you again soon.
Speaker 5: Thanks, she appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Talk soon, Thank you.
Speaker 1: Okay, guys, you heard what the Westgate Superbook is needing
in those games today. It's gonna be really interesting to
see where the public does fare, where that sharp money
fares as well. But let's bring a Yanni the Greek in.
We're gonna see him. You can follow him at Greek
Underscore Gambler over on all social media. Yanni, welcome to
the show. I know you've been just crushing it with
your bet on It college Football NFL. You've also got
a Sunday show which we will get into, which is
called Bettles Steam Room with as.
Speaker 2: You got a lot of stuff going on. I want
to thank you for joining us today.
Speaker 3: My pleasure. Sorry, I'm just firing away right now. These
games are coming in live.
Speaker 6: I have no choice. I gotta bet them before these
numbers go away. I'll give you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you keep getting those bets in as we
talk here, Yanni.
Speaker 2: I don't blame you at all. You guys you want
to make sure you do.
Speaker 1: Go over and give Yanni a follow at Greek Underscore
Gambler on social media.
Speaker 2: Yanni, what do you getting in on? Where are those numbers?
Speaker 3: Oregon? I mean against Oregon?
Speaker 6: I just bet Northwestern first quarter plus seven and I
bet Northwestern plus fourteen and a half first half, bathing
Oregon in both of those first half and first quarter,
I sent three percent to subscribers in the first quarter.
I just sent them another two percent in the first half. Again,
those are for subscribers. A lot of this late stuff
that's coming in, I'll share right now. It's mostly the derivatives.
That's what they're blasting this morning. Most of the signs
in totals. Unless the public knocks a couple of these
lines out of whack, most of those bets have already
come in, except for the added board and I'll give
you some of those. But so far this morning, some
of those derivatives we've been betting are like I said,
Northwestern first half, Northwestern first quarter. We bet Georgia Tech
plus a half in the first quarter. We bet Clemson
Georgia Tech under ten and a half first quarter. We
bet Memphis Troy under ten and a half. First quarter.
We bet Massachusetts over three and a half team total.
We're firing away over here. And a couple extra added
game boards. Added board games for you three eight, nine
oh seven.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 3: William and Mary in Virginia over fifty one and a half.
Speaker 6: They also laid the twenty eight in Virginia in that game,
and then three oh eight nine to twenty five over
fifty three and a half over fifty four Norfolk Rutgers,
and finally keennessall State minus the fourteen. So that's some
of the early stuff that came in that we've and
fire and away. So busy, busy day of college football.
There's also UFC also boxing. So yeah, NFL tomorrow, big day, Big,
big weekend, Joe, big weekend.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're absolutely loaded this weekend.
Speaker 1: And when you mentioned that William and Mary Virginia game,
we are seeing.
Speaker 2: A lot of movement in that line.
Speaker 1: The fifty one and a half is only available to
a couple of books, so you jumping on that. I'm
seeing as high as fifty three and a half on
some of those books in that matchup. We are.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they move quickly. That's the thing with the added
board games. And I don't even use them for the
daily card guys. Those are for my subscribers. The guys
they partner up with me for a season or the
year that I know are already logged into their accounts
and they're ready to fire because a lot of those
bets are what ultimately gives you the most value. Again,
the easiest way to know where the book is most
vulnerable is simply ask what the betting limits are. And
there's a reason they'll take one hundred thousand on an
NFL side, but they'll only take a nickel on kennessol
state other than they can write a lot of action
the other way, which you know could be the argument like, wait,
we can't get risk the other side. But still it
just shows, based on the line movement, just how inefficient
market is. Because if you if your market's efficient, you
don't have a reason to move the line.
Speaker 3: If you think your line's.
Speaker 6: Tap tight, then keep betting me. Go ahead, you're laying
eleven to ten. I could be wrong and still make money.
But if you're seeing me getting eleven to ten and
I'm moving the line two three points, then rest assured.
I'm respecting your action and I'm letting you know I
think my line was inefficient and you're probably right, And
there's nothing more satisfying as a sport's better than seeing that. Again,
I talk about closing line value all the time, and
it's really hard to argue that, you know, getting closing
line value is not a recipe for success, because again,
if you could get out of the head of the.
Speaker 3: Market and beat the market in any market, you're going
to make some money.
Speaker 1: Now, we are seeing quite a bit of movement between
Wisconsin and Alabama. We know this one open forty six
and a half. These numbers are floating around depending on
your books. We got forty five and a half and
forty six is for that total. I did see a
forty six and a half pop up. It is gone now,
but Alabama twenty and a half point favorite coming into
this one now and eighteen and a half point favorite
on one book. I'm seeing nineteen or nineteen and a
half even up to twenty and a half on others.
Speaker 2: Where's your action coming in this game today?
Speaker 6: I haven't touched that game. I think the right side
is Wisconsin. You know those that betters that got in
and got the three touchdowns. I think that's a great
bet regardless of outcome, and the market kind of reflects that.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 6: Since then, you're starting to see our favorite money Alabama money,
at least from that recreational accounts. But when you get
into those like big twenty point favorites, they don't get
much straight action from the recreational betters. Most of the
time those are tied into parlays with other big favorites.
You know, they tend to do that a lot. They're
not really comfortable walking up laying and nickel at minus
eighteen and a half nineteen and a half as much
as putting it in like a parlay or even a
money line parlay. But I think the right side to me,
I like Wisconsin. I like the game over too. I
see the totals dropping, but I think you could get
some points again the obviously the narrative is defense. But
I always say sometimes great defense is the perfect storm
for and over because the total is going to be
shaded towards the bias of good defenses. And then you
couple that with good defenses create turnovers, good defenses create
short fields, good defenses score special team touchdowns like scoring
can happen even though good defenses are on the field,
and sometimes you can take advantage of that narrative. So
that game kind of sticks out a little bit like
there where I think the over may offer a little
bit of value but keeps dropping.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we do have a question here from Thomas Lynch VR.
What's the movement on USC and Purdue? Some people like Purdue.
Speaker 6: Yeah, here's what I'm gonna tell you. If I had
to bet the sign, I haven't bet the sign. I've
been the under, and it looks like I may be
on the wrong side because the client's cliind of climbing,
and I hate when that happens. Now I'm hoping to
be the product of good luck because I went under
in that game. I think I went under like fifty
nine and a half and now it's sixty and a half.
And whenever I could get a better number on Saturday
than I did on Tuesday or Wednesday, I always tell
myself you did a bad job. Like now I'm hoping
again to be the product of good luck and hopefully
that game stays under. But the truth is I took
a bad number. You could get under sixty and a
half today, probably even under sixty one, and I'm hoping
it stays under fifty nine and a half. So I
got a bad ticket in my pocket. But once he
plays the bet, it's too late. You can't take it back.
Speaker 5: Once a.
Speaker 6: Lower scoring game between Ohio Stanton and Prue. But I
will tell you this, Ohio States the number one team
in the country. I'm sure every a lot of people
will agree with that. But power rating wise, they're starting again.
We don't have much data. We're now only in week
two or three, depending what you call it in college football,
but they're starting to show that they are the cream
of the crop, and they're probably two or three points
better than the next best team in college football. I
think when the dust settles, we're going to reach that
conclusion that they probably are at least a field goal
better than the second best team in college football. I
don't think we're there yet, but I'm starting to see
that this Ohio State's team is legit and arguably should
be the number one team in the country and the
favorite to win it all.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 1: As about Tize fan, I absolutely love that afore sure
that is my team. I'm looking for them to come
out strong as well.
Speaker 2: What about Crawford?
Speaker 6: Here today, here we go, Canello Crawford listen. I'm gonna
just tell you my opinion. I lived here in Las
Vegas through the Floyd Mayweather era, and I made a
lot of money. I was on radio at that time,
and I used to laugh about it because most people
didn't realize that Floyd made Weather was not only a
best friend to Las Vegas because of all the revenue
he brought to the city, but he was a fresh
friend to the sports books as well, because he was
such a big favorite most times, and he was such
a villain that just as many people logged in tuned
in to watch him lose as tuned in to watch
him win. So betters would line up and bet against Floyd.
They would think of every reason to bet against Floyd
because they were getting plus money and they thought that
that equated the value. But nothing could be further from
the truth, because when Floyd Mayweather entered the ring in
Las Vegas, he was already up for nothing on the
judges' score cards. What it doesn't to do with being
fixed has nothing to do with corruption. It has to
do with influence, and Floyd Mayweather had a ton of
influence in the city and in the Nevada State Athletic Commission,
and rest assured Canelo Alvarez on Mexican Independence Day has
just as much influence as Floyd.
Speaker 3: Mayweather had over that decade.
Speaker 6: So unless Crawford's able to knock him out, unless Crawford's
able to get a couple ten eight rounds.
Speaker 3: I don't see him scoring a decision here.
Speaker 6: In Las Vegas on Mexican Independence Day against Canelo Alvarez.
Canela Alvarez will have to get beaten to a pulp
to lose a decision tonight. That's not happening. The flip side,
I think Canelo breaks him down systematically wins the fight.
Don't be surprised if even stops Crawford, who's not going
to have the footwork at this weight class that he
had two weight classes below. He's also thirty seven, almost
thirty eight years old. I understand he's undefeated. I understand
it looks attractive as an underdog, but it's in Las Vegas,
it's Mexican Independent State, it's Canelo Alvarez, and at less
than a two to one favorite, with four rounds already
in my pocket, I'm taking.
Speaker 2: Canelo, So we just take him straight up on the
money line there though.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's it.
Speaker 6: That's it, that a little sprinkle inside by finished because
it pays so well, because it's so heavily favored to
go to a decision. Both men have proven to be
so durable. But just in case, you know what I mean,
crazier things have happened than seeing the bigger man stop
the smaller man, especially if the referee stoppage, you know,
if they starts.
Speaker 3: Breaking him down in the later rounds. So small sprinkle.
Speaker 6: On Canelo, you know, tko ko DQ, which probably pays good,
but money line, I think all is more than enough
value anything better than MINEUS two hundred, where two out
of three times if he wins this fight, you break even.
Speaker 3: I think it's a great bet, Joe.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it definitely is. I want to turn back to
some college football here.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you what you're seeing with Clemson
and Georgia Tech. We know Georgia Tech has those questions
around their quarterback, Haynes King. Is he beat up enough
that we just stay off the home dog here?
Speaker 2: What are you seeing?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on the under. I'm on the onder.
Speaker 6: I like the under. We bet the under in the
first quarter in that one. I also saw Georgia Tech
in the first quarter, so they expect him to come
out well. Or it has something to do with who
defers and who receives.
Speaker 3: In the kickoff.
Speaker 6: That's how they bet a lot of these first quarters.
So they don't think Georgia Tech is in a disadvantage
early in the game. What I'm seeing as far as
the betting action.
Speaker 7: It's good.
Speaker 6: It's good two way split action. So like, this is
the game that you want to be booking now. Obviously
the early sharp money came in, you saw the line
move towards Georgia Tech when it was a lot higher,
but that was you know, a little bit of sharper money,
and those limits are a lot lower. As of today,
where the limits are large and betters are betting recreational
betters as well, I'm seeing good balanced action there. So
I'm just hoping for a low scoring early first quarter
for me to cash the ticket.
Speaker 2: Well, so where you're going with that one? What about
Notre Dame.
Speaker 1: Notre Dame coming off the by here facing Texas A
and m They've been so solid off of by especially
off a loss. We know in Week one they did
lose to Miami in that heartbreaker that costs a lot
of people some money.
Speaker 2: Where are you seeing the auction on this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm seeing Notre Dame money. I'm seeing Notre.
Speaker 6: Dame being teased. Guys, don't tease college football.
Speaker 3: Don't do it. It's not profitable.
Speaker 6: The only time that I've ever seen college football teased
by is sharp betters over the last five plus years
came in like a playoff right before the national championship,
where I think you could make that argument, But otherwise
I just don't think it's a profitable strategy. So stay
away from the teasers in college football too much variance
in scoring. You're better off beting Notre Dame minus the
six if you like it, or whatever the number is
right now.
Speaker 3: I like Texas A and m I think they could
keep it close.
Speaker 6: I think Miami, which isn't even a top ten college
football team, let alone the top five college football team,
was able to beat them, and I think when the
dust settles and this season's over, Miami will be lucky
to be in the top twenty.
Speaker 3: That's the beauty of college football.
Speaker 6: Early on your record and beating a school like that
is going to put you in the top five, in
the top ten, for sure. If you're two and oh,
a three and oh after today, after this week, and
beat at least one decent team, you're in the top five,
top ten in college football. But power rating wise, Notre
Dame is not. I mean, what's it called? Whoever I
was talking about. It was just on the top of
my fit is not uh Miami. Miami is not a
top five power rated team. So if they were able
to beat Notre Dame, I think Texas A and M
will able to tang close with them. Take the points.
Don't be surprised if Texas A and M wins on
the money line, I think it's worth a sprinkle. But
I like Texas A and.
Speaker 1: M ooh the sprinkle on the money line there going
into Notre Dame and that's going to be an interesting
one to see what their offense line is able to doe.
Speaker 3: Notes your dom. I like notes your dom better, I
like you.
Speaker 6: I'm trying to say it, peoples the right way to
say you. Guys speak French up there, so if you
don't know how to say not you're dom, nobody does.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Okay, people are begging in the chat for you
to throw some MLB at us.
Speaker 2: What have you got for MLB?
Speaker 6: Here's what I could tell you about baseball real quickly.
Before Game one of the series yesterday, three series bets
got steamed. Okay, can't give you today's MLB because we're
still working on that. But here's the three series that
got steamed White Sox plus one, ninety Miami plus one
ninety Mets minus one fifty. Miami won Game one, so
they got to win either today or to morrow for
that series bet to win. White Sox and Mets both
lost Game one, so now now they both have to
win on Saturday and Sunday for those sharp series bets
to cash. So look at the White Sox, look at
the Mets today. If you agree with them, probably makes
sense to back them. But it's a little early right now.
It's been all college football till about nine a m.
About thirty minutes still kick off. Then we'll see if
there's any baseball to zero in on, because again, don't again,
we got MMA today, we got boxing, college football, NFL tomorrow.
Baseball take a small back seat today, but we're still
going to take a look for sure.
Speaker 2: Absolutely So you said it.
Speaker 1: We got basically thirty minutes to kickoff here, What else
do you have for us before we let you get
back to get in those bets in.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm ready. As I said, I'm set for a
big weekend. I'm excited Tomorrow we have the steam room
leading into the final hour of the NFL kickoff. So
if you're a subscriber, you already got the invite for sure.
Otherwise we signed up, make sure you get the invite
for that. We go over every NFL game, we go
over our year to date results, our goal towards the
end of the year coming up, and today five percent
in the college football pass number one in college football,
number one NFL college football combined twenty twenty five heading
into this weekend, and yeah, that's up. Way to talk
also combined UFC and boxing. I got two boxing bets,
six UFC bets already in that package. So let's do
some damage this weekend. Thank you Joe for having me in.
Speaker 3: Best luck to you today too, Yeah, best of luck today.
Speaker 1: Yanni, thank you so much for joining us here on
last call.
Speaker 2: Crush those books, you guys. That was Yanni the Greek.
Speaker 1: Make sure you go over and follow him on all
social media at Greek Underscore Gambler. Also head on over
to wager talk dot com to get all of his bets.
Speaker 2: You don't want to miss out.
Speaker 1: On those packages that he has up and then, like
he said, tune in tomorrow you don't want to miss
out on his show Bet the Steam Room with Ace.
He's gonna be live there for a couple hours talking
all of the NFL games. It's gonna come up right
after Last Call tomorrow with Ariel, So make sure you
jump on that. You guys were now going to bring
in Teddy covers to the show from wagertalk dot com.
Make sure you drop your questions in the chat for
Teddy Teddy Happy Saturday. How's college football being treating you
so far?
Speaker 7: Well, good morning, Joe. We enjoyed last night in college football.
Certainly the Houston Cougar's got the job done for us.
And I'm kicking myself for not betting New Mexico. We saw,
you know, I saw New Mexico Week one against Michigan
hang with the Wolverines at the line of scrimmage, and
I'm like, is this real? No, Michigan's just not taking
them seriously. You know, New Mexico course brought in seventy
transfers this offseason, and guess what they didn't just hang
in the trenches with UCLA last night. They dominated in
the trenches against at Bruins last night. If there's one
team where preseason power ratings you could throw them out.
The New Mexico Lobos should be power rated a lot
higher than I seen anywhere. And obviously we saw that.
It wasn't a Ucla turnovers. It was New Mexico being
the better team on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
So it wasn't fluky, you know, it wasn't one of
those weird games. It was New Mexico beating up UCLA
at the line of scrimmage. And that's you know again,
they hung with Michigan at the line of scrimmage. So
you see stuff like that. I watch a ton of
college football. I've got the you know TV set up.
I'll be sitting in here for the next fourteen hours
watching college.
Speaker 2: It's going to be a great day, it really is.
Speaker 1: Teddy, what do you think of Houston steamrolling over color
They were only a four point favorite. They won that
one by sixteen thirty six to twenty.
Speaker 7: Sure, they probably should have won it by more. Houston's inability,
you know, they only punted once in that game, all right,
and they kept on getting shut down in the red
zone and selling for field goals and selling for field
goals and selling for field goals when you punt, well,
I mean Colorado was in position to get beat you know,
and there's a reason that we had the Coops. And again,
when you have teams that have played twice at home,
you put a QB in his first career start on
the Highway against a decent defense. I'm not shocked at
all by the result. I bet on the result of
that game. But it wasn't a game where afterwards I'm like, Wow,
the Cougars are bet on all the way. No, it
was just a good spot to go against Colorado and
it played out that way. Houston not necessarily a bet
on team for me moving forward. Oh they're not. You know,
I did say anything last night there was red flag for
the Cougars, but there wasn't. I didn't come out of
that game going this team is way undervalued. Know, we
got a bet on the Coops every week, not that
they won't be options, But it wasn't that conclusion for me.
It was more Colorado bad as much Colorado bad as
it was Houston good.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: So have you seen the team that's just a total
red flag to you where it's like I'm stand off
them for the next couple of weeks till they get
everything together.
Speaker 7: Uh So, I didn't play Wake the other night because
you know, I had Wake Week one. I'm like, this
team's not at all what I thought they were going
to be. I probably should have bet against them. They had,
you know, a kick return touchdown, a non offensive touchdown
in any sport, in any whether it's NFL or college,
those are tough to overcome ats, you know, and Wake
opens the game with a kick return touchdown, and it
didn't matter whether they scored. They scored well, they scored
seventeen the rest of the way, but NC State certainly
controlled the second half of that flow. So the Demon
Deacons are a team that that I learned the hard
way early that they weren't what I thought they were,
and that certainly nothing's changed opinion after this passed the
games on Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so people are saying, we didn't even score in
that second half of that game. Definitely some red flags
out there. What are your thoughts today?
Speaker 2: On Miami?
Speaker 7: So it's a classic sharp square divide game, all right,
All the pros are on Miami, all the joes are
on us F. USF look so good. I mean, obviously
you beat Boise and then you beat Floria. You do
what something right, you talk about the mentality of a
program of that caliber. They like USF's a bottom feeder.
You know, it's in Kennessas State, and you got to
talk about Nnessasce STATEA. You know USF, you know, a
quality group of five squad, all right, they're not near
the bottom of college football. But when you beat Florida
one week, the celebrations are pretty strong. The focus level
at practice is something of a concern. When you're going
to my Miami and Miami's lying in wait and Miami says, oh,
they beat Boise, Oh they beat Florida. Hey, we better
take this team seriously. One would expect the Hurricanes to
be able to control this one. Now that I bet it,
I did not.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 7: One of the events, I've lived in Las Vegas since
nineteen ninety eight, and we got here for the nineteen
ninety eight football season. I went back the next summer,
sold my house and brought all my stuff. I'm like, yeah,
that'll work for me. And one of the lessons that
I've learned over the years is sometimes you tap the
brakes on some of these teams that have pulled off
a couple of big upsets, but you're not necessarily going
to fade them. You know, it's like, all right, I'm
gonna lay it with Miami here. Oh I'm convinced you.
I'm not convinced Miami seventeen and a half points better
than USF. Nothing I've seen with my eyes tells me
Miami seventeen and a half points better than the USF.
So spot wise, I can't get there with the dog.
I know a lot of my colleagues like the favorite
in this game. For me, I'm not playing. It's a
pass for me because I've seen teams like USF even
in these spots, cash enough tickets over the years that
I'm not in a rush to step in from.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we are hearing those comments. Just no trust in
Carson Beck there for Miami.
Speaker 1: Let's talk three thirty Eastern matchup between Georgia and Tennessee.
Speaker 2: Now, this one did open.
Speaker 1: It's Georgia six and a half point favorite rolling into Tennessee.
We did see that movement in the lines dropping down
to three and a half. There are four and a
house out there for Georgia as well, and this total
did go from forty nine and a half up to
fifteen and a halfs On some books.
Speaker 2: Where are you looking with this one?
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big game to see if
Georgia's defense can shut down Tennessee, and they've been able
to do so in the past.
Speaker 2: Teddy, we know that.
Speaker 1: I don't think Tennessee's ever scored more than seventeen points
versus Well.
Speaker 7: Ever, it's a mighty long time, but not in any
reason being I'll be looking at the numbers thirty one
to seventeen, thirty eight to ten, twenty seven to thirteen,
forty one to seventeen forty four to twenty one, three
to fourteen, thirty to twelve forty went to nothing. That's
not just eight straight wins for Georgia. That's eight straight
double digit wins, eight straight by two touchdowns or more.
The only spread that Tennessee's covered during this eight year
span was when they were plus thirty and a half
in a twenty six point loss back in twenty eighteen.
And this ain't no thirty and a half right here.
One of the things I'm looking for early season college
football team that's been lousy against the spread against team
that's been good against the spread Georgia, oh and two ats.
The offense hasn't clicked. You know, they didn't cover what
forty five and a half against Austin p They didn't
offer cover thirty eight and a half against Marshall. They
only score twenty eight points in one of the two.
You know. Meanwhile, Tennessee's two and zher against the spread
two and oh to the over. So in this type
of spot a priori. All right, we have a completely
one sided series. We have the team that's lost all
those meetings looking good in early season. They covered all
the numbers. We have the team that's dominated this series.
They haven't covered the numbers so far. Where's the value lie?
The value lies with the team that hasn't covered the
numbers but has dominated the series. Why is this year different? Again?
Look at Tennessee versus everybody else. Tennessee averages hypel okay,
he averages thirty nine points a game against everybody and
fourteen points a game against Georgia, and the offense is
one hundred and fifty airs were and obviously Georgia is
the national national campison contender every year. All right, And
Tennessee has a dominant advantage in Yland. You know, they're
twenty three and one their last twenty four. Of course,
the one was Georgia. But for me to be convinced
that this year's gonna be different, I gotta believe in
Tennessee more than I do. I got a question about
the receiving question. We've got agalar against a good defense.
It's Georgia or pass for this better? History does tell
us something and the value is there for a team
that hasn't covered numbers yet this year was covered numbers
against this particular opponent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, especially in laying the three and a half.
I think they should be able to win that one
by a touchdown. I'm with you, Teddy. It is for
me as well them or past. What do you think
on the total here, we're seeing people jumping in first
half total twenty six looking fishy. Might be an understyle game.
Are you seeing anything that you're liking on those totals?
Speaker 7: So this whole phishy number thing that's going around right
now again, when you when you live in Vegas and
you understand how points, breads are made and how totals
are made, none of these look fishy. All right. It's teammates,
you know, total rating and teams be's total rating and
they men you mix and mashing together. And this is
what you get, you know, I mean a pace of
play is in a piece of the equation. You know,
the full game total is sitting here, fifty to fifty
and a half. And I talked about the struggles that
Tennessee has had offensively against Georgia. Tennessee correlates with over
in this game, Georgia correlates with under. I'm leaning to
the Georgia side. They're from leaning to the underside, playing
it right. If I think if I thought the Voles
could light up the scoreboard, it be Tennessee and over.
I don't. Therefore it's Georgia and under. But fishy the
numbers right where it's supposed to be. Okay, did you
think it's fishy?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I love that year, just coming out with that. So
people talked about fishy. What about a trap we saw
in the comment saying Clemson, why only two and a half?
Three eight points favorite? It feels like a trap here
versus Georgia. Jack, do you feel that way?
Speaker 2: Teddy?
Speaker 7: No? Okay? So again, uh, why is this line where
it is right now? Line opened six six and a
half Clemson? All right? The betters that pushed it down.
Why have they pushed it down? Well, there's concerns about Clemson,
who didn't look great in the opener against LSU and
didn't look great last week against Troy. You know, that
was the game that they trailed at sixteen and nothing
ended up winning twenty seven to sixteen. I watched most
of that game and I thought Clemson, you know, they
got punched in the mouth and they responded appropriately and
it was a clear flat spot off the LSU lost,
So you can make the case that, you know, it's
a very understandable slug is showing for Clemson. That being said,
it's another offense is clicked this year. And Georgia Tech
despite all those turnovers, we know what they did in
Week one going out to Boulder and just running all over.
I mean, they had three turners in the first quarter
and still did whatever they wanted in that contest against Colorado.
And it's a Georgia Tech team that a lot of
people have them circled as this year's sleeper in the acis.
You know, I heard that all offseason watch out for
Georgia Tech. They played well thus far, so I'm not
surprising Georgia Tech and not surprised at all Georgia Techs
taking the money, especially with Clemson injury. Cleme Clem's gonna
be missing three starters today. That said, much like the
Georgia Tennessee game we just talked about, it's been a
very one sided series. Georgia Tech's got to show me
they can be Clemson before I believe it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you got to wonder what heinz king here?
How mobile he's going to be able to be in
this game? Are any games that you're looking at, it's
just the favorite to cover all of the points. It
was a game that you looked at that you're just like, hey,
got to go there. They're just paying opponent that you
can't trust.
Speaker 7: So I mean, uh, maybe Texas Tech is Oregon State.
Oregon State's a team I don't trust at all, you know,
not even a little bit in Texas Texas team that
when they get rolling, they're going to keep rolling. Uh
So that's a game I want no part of the
dog laying twenty three and a half twenty four There
to be Texas Tech or pass the Red Raiders. They
have their fair share of explosiveness, and you know, it's
a long way from home for the Beavers and the
wrong weather conditions for them as well, So I would
not be surprised at all if they wear down after halftime.
So that's one.
Speaker 1: Okay, anyone barking, you got anyone winning this one?
Speaker 2: Straight up? That's an underdog today, Teddy.
Speaker 7: I'm sure there's gonna be.
Speaker 2: It's got to be a big upset today, right, let's.
Speaker 7: You know, I mean, look, the Vandy South Carolina game
is is you know a lot of time this team
comes on the dog and I'm like, I'm getting I'm
I'm not interested. I'm not interested. Yeah, Vandy can beat
South Carolina. All right? What Vandy's done this year? All right,
there's three things that stand out. Obviously, you know the
quarterback plays there, but they're receivers. Vandy's got receivers this year.
They got playmakers, they got guys that can catch, and
they're beating up on teams of the line of scrimmage.
That's not a big dog Vandy, but they're you know,
they've taken every bit of sharp money. And one of
the things that you pay attention to, you know, Yanni
talks about it. All right, this team got bat at seven?
Are they getting bet at six. Oh wow, they're getting
bed at six two. All right, that tells us that
it's the team, you know. Yeah, we bet pros betting
the numbers and Joe's bet teams, but that tells us
that pros are interested in the team in this spot.
And with Vandy. Yeah, yeah, they got bet down to
four four and a half. Let's take those out, two
three and a halfs, let's take those out too. So
there's been enough sharp money supporting Themadors here at different numbers.
You know, I do think this is this is one
of those games I'm by looking to fade this team.
It's Vandy, your pass, and I think they can They
can hang very tough and right now, maybe the best
value is on the money line if you like the commodos.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've seen that money line floating around.
Speaker 1: It was as high as plus one seventy actually plus
one eighty on the ninth. We're now seeing it plus
one twenty six. Kind of area for Vandy straight up
on the money line. As that spread did move from
five and a half for South Carolina at home down
to threes, there is a two and a half out
there as well, So lots of love coming in here
on bandy, and I'm with you. I'd take Vandy straight
up on the money line or pass on that one.
Anything else, Teddy you've got for us today.
Speaker 7: I don't know. I mean, so, I got a ton
of free plays on YouTube. I got a ton of
plays on my homepage, WT dot, buzz, backslash TC. Just
visit wagertalk dot com. There's literally free play, free play,
free play video. So there's all kinds of opinions about games,
and not just me. I know, there are many sites
out there that have more free plays than we do
and more free play videos. That's why you subscribe, you know,
that's why you hit the like button, because you get
all this type of an outsid of course, wager Talk
TV on YouTube. So I got a three play card
for today so far, we may add a little bit
more before all said and done. Still work in MLB
for today and obviously locked and loaded with a five
percent big ticket in NFL action for tomorrow. So now
all time wager Talk NFL five percent big tickets. Check
it out again, WT dot, buzz, backslash TC. And we
got these great deals. We've got a short term deal,
the weekend package, you know, forty nine bucks. We have
a month long deal, you know, which is a very
reasonably price, and I always encourage people don't buy a
play by a package, and then we have like this,
get every play like three months, and then get a
month free. I mean, three really good deals. If you
want short term, medium term, long term, check it out
my page and all the cappers pages wait talk dot com.
Speaker 1: Okay, so the weekend Warrior pac is just forty nine
dollars for your college football and NFL plays this weekend.
Speaker 2: How many picks are people getting for that?
Speaker 7: Teddy NMLB so right now? Relatively short? Okay, you know,
right now I have a grand total of four plays.
I'm likely to add more over the course of the
next twenty four hours, but the only playoff posting the
NFL this week so far as my five percent big ticket.
We've been patiently waiting for lines to get where I
want them to, and I expect them to get there
at some point today. So we'll be adding to that
card right now over the course of the next twenty
four hours. And I do expect me involved on Monday
night as well. That's another one where I'm waiting for
the number to move where I hope it's gonna move.
Might be involved in both money night games to be honest.
So yes, you'll get plenty of action, but not a ridicut.
I mean some guys, you know, I mean, Yanni, you
got to be ready to fire twenty plays. I'm never
gonna put out twenty plays. That's just not how I work.
So action will be reasonable as opposed to uh. And
you know there are people that want that action. I
get it. Then Yanni's the right guy for you. If
you're if you're looking for a fewer plates, I might.
Speaker 2: Be the right guy for Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Teddy. I want to thank you so much for
joining us here for college football talk on the Last Call.
Absolutely dominate the books this weekend, and best luck and
your five percent play tomorrow.
Speaker 7: Oh, thank you so much, Joe. I appreciate a pleasure
working with you. Absolutely, You guys out there in viewer land, cheers.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Teddy.
Speaker 1: Okay, guys, go over and give Teddy Covers a follow
at Teddy Underscore Covers on all social.
Speaker 2: Media and make sure you do.
Speaker 1: Go over and check him out on wagertalk dot com.
He mentioned that weekend Warrior package. You guys don't want
to miss out on that. We have so many fantastic
games today, and I hope we were able to come
at you with some bets that you're looking to get
in on before these games kick off. It's going to
be an absolutely loaded slate, great day. If you're liking
any underdogs, make sure you do comment under this video.
Bragging rights are on the line, you guys.
Speaker 2: You want to make.
Speaker 1: Sure you get those out into public views so if
they do win, you can brag about it, because there's
nothing worse than someone bragging about something.
Speaker 2: They didn't talk about.
Speaker 1: So let's hear those bragging bets that you're gonna put
in today if you're liking anyone in the NFL. Tomorrow
as well, But again, you guys, tomorrow last Call, you'll
see Ariel sitting here, and then afterwards you want to
check out Yanni the Greek with his uh bet with
Ace the steam Room. You want to follow that up.
That's at noon Eastern. So you guys, thanks so much
for joining me here on Last Call. Until next time,
stay hot and let's make some frickin money