Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Friday. It's time for total Bass.
I'm here live from the final four. I think I
think the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is like right there. I'm
looking and pointing out my window. Your boy could not
get close to Lucasoil Stadium. Forget about that. I'm like
way on the other side of town here in Indie.
But we're here to talk about baseball, and so that's
what we're gonna do. A respectable slate today, boys. Yesterday
was was rough, just three games. The idea of leaving
the weather day, I guess kind of backfired because there
was no game through schedule that we didn't have a
ton to talk about. Today, we've got the full slate
and we've got day games, night games. It's a great
day of baseball. We're gonna start with one of the
day games, though, and I'm gonna go to Tokyo Brandon
first because we have.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 1: I will say this, I don't typically revise my ratings
this early, but because I had the Mariners and the
Yankee or the Mariners in the Yankees one A and
one B. After the Yankees took two of three from
the Mariners, I felt like it was only right to
bump them to the top of my American League power rankings.
So I now have the Yankees one. They get off
to a five and one start. They come off of
taking two of three from the team I previously had one,
which was the Mariners, and they face a Marlins team
that's also five and one. But I don't think these
two five and ones are are quite equal. So Tokyo Brainon,
kick us off Marlin's Yankees in the Bronx today the
home opener for the Bronx Bombers. How are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 3: I'm feeling good. I won my five percent yesterday, which
was the Twins Royals first five under loved it, and
then I won the Atlanta Money Line. So yeah, I
had a good day. So let's keep it rolling this game. Yeah,
Will Warren has no history against this Miami team in Miami.
If you said six games into the season, Miami is
gonna be five, everyone, probably someone would have institutionalized you.
But they are talented, and we've talked on this show
several several times that all three of us think Miami
is an up and coming team with a good, young,
solid roster, and their management has their head on straight.
So it's an up and coming team. I don't know
if it's a playoff team, but two months ago I
bet a future Miami Marlins over seventy three wins, So
I'm kind of liking how this is going. I think
I got it for like plus no, no, no, I'm sorry,
it was minus one ten, but so I'm liking how
that goes. So regarding today, Will Warren has no stats
against this team, I don't really know what to expect,
but I know that New York's bullpen is pretty good
and they're rested, so I would temper my expectations for
Miami Uri Press though he has really good history against
these New York batters. I like Miami's bullpenned currently ranked
number one in MLB in current form, So I like
the New York Yankees team total under in this one.
If I'm going to play it. It's not a client player.
I haven't put it out. I have several plays out today,
but that's not one of them. But I'd say Yankees
team total under if I was going to bet this game.
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard, you were kind of ahead of the curve
on the Marlins. A couple of years ago kind of
overhauling their player development and you know, sort of bringing
some of these guys along, like the Uri Perezes and
just the multitude of young players they have in their organization.
I think we're both on the same page thinking that's
going to pay off at some point for this team.
Five and one start, though, is that paying off or
is that just a kind of an easy schedule out
the gate.
Speaker 2: Well, actually, if you take a look at expected wins,
both teams have five wins and they were expected to
win four point four, so both of the little bit
a little bit lucky so far. Obviously, the Marlins have
taken advantage of some lesser competition. The Yankees web percentage
should be seventy four percent, the Marlins basically seventy two
point nine. But if you take a look at the
starting pitchers here, Geri Perez, he'll be facing three left
excuse me, three righty's and six lefties. He doesn't have
any splits between the two. He's a very good picture
either way. He's got like a nineteen percent strikeout mars
walk ratio to both. He's been very good. His expected
WOLBA against lefties is slightly higher, point three h nine
against two seventy four. But when you take a look
at the Yankees picture Will Warren, Will Warren against Ready's
last year twenty eight point six, strek out rate against
lefties twenty walk right five point five percent, walk right
against lefties twelve point one. So he's very good against
Ready's not so good against lefties, and today he's going
to face five of the nine batters are going to
be lefties. Will Warren does pitch better at home. He's
been very good at home. If you take a look
at his numbers, He's a much more comfortable pitching in
the Yankee Stadium than he is on the road. I
will point out today as we're as I'm sitting here
in my office in my home office in Vegas, wind
is blowing like crazy, and I think wind and rain
around the country today is going to affect a lot
of games. So keep that in mind. We may see
some some situations where it rains in the middle of
the game. We talk about this a lot. If there's
a rain delay and you're putting a lot of your
your handicapping on the starting pitchers, then all of a
sudden there's an hour rain delay. He's not coming back out.
Chances are he's not coming back out to pitch again.
So if you're one of those kind of guys, this
may be a day to really look at your weather.
And if you're also playing overs and props, that would
be a concern for the pitchers. Also, the number to
me seems about right. Obviously, I like Perez better than
I like Warren, but the Yankees have been a very
good home team over the last few years. They've built
their team around the dimensions of this stadium, and I'm
just I know Perez will probably last longer because he's
been stressed out a little bit more than Warren has.
But I think the lines about what I thought it
would be, and I don't know if I'm to be
involved in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian, I'm with you. The lines about what I
thought it would be as well. I was hoping for
a Marlins plus one and a half that was a
that was better value. I think there's an edge for
Perez over Will Warren. I mean, if you just look
at you just fought the stat cast page from last year,
Warren's got a lot of blue outside of a good
basketball and good extension, and it was mostly not great
now I think he could potentially improve upon that. But
I look at Uri Perez from last year and I
remember to myself, you know, this was a guy that
was on almost a full year of rehab. So it's like,
if you go back to the beginning of the year
last year, they really eased him along in terms of
like the way they allowed him to come back from
pretty a pretty catastrophic injury. I mean, correct me if
I'm wrong, Brian, did he not miss almost like two years?
It's about two years?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was. It was over a full year, and
he had such a bright future at the time. And
also Octo missed a lot of times. So Miami had
some guys that were really good pitchers and they ran
inswer that I do want to point out. You mentioned
the first half you're paying about twenty five thirty cents.
Is you're getting a less twenty five thirty cents if
you're going to the first five. But if you really
liked the starting pitcher, that might be the way to
take a look at it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, like Perez almost two I said,
two two and a half months just in the minors
to start the year last year, where they pretty much
let him work his way from like rookie ball all
the way back through Triple A, multiple starts at each level,
and then again he kind of came up, had one
really good start, started overthrowing. So I'm like willing, I'm
more willing to throw his last year out than Warren,
which I think maybe we stall, you know, my gut says,
maybe that's what Warren is more so than Perez, because
I know Perez was coming off the injury. And of
course if you go back three years ago when Perez
was a prospect, I mean there was a lot of
people very excited about him, which I still think he
could realize that upside down the road because I think
his skills that is, you know, more appealing than Warren
in terms of like an upside standpoint. I think back
to last year, coming out of the Break, the Marlins
and the way they slapped the Yankees around in that series.
I think it was one of the first series out
of the All Star Break the Marlins ended up I
believe sweeping. They were up for it. I think they'll
be up for the trip to the Bronx. Here. You
have to ask yourself, you know, Yankees, they have the
Netflix special to open the season. Then they have a
huge series in Seattle. I know it's the home openers,
you know, And I'll throw this out to either of you, Tokyo, Brandon,
maybe you can chime in. Is this a little bit
of a letdown spot even though it's the Yankees home opener,
because they had that big series and then they fly
all the way back home for this game.
Speaker 3: I don't think so. And the reason is because yesterday
was a day off. So I think, you know, I
think more like a home team coming home today, such
as the Twins, who had I had a two game series,
they come home and they play right away. That I
think is more of an effect than having a day off.
You know, you get to pet your dog and then
you got to go play baseball, right, But the Yankees
got a day to just chill out.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Brian, what about what about you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think home opener. Everybody gets excited for the
home opener, So even though they had the day off,
I think there's a lot of nervousness. You kind of
you touched on it, but you didn't go into it
a lot, Yesterda. Yeah, last year the Yankees played in
Marlins three times. And the Marlins won all three games.
They went seven to three, they went two to nothing,
and they went thirteen to twelve. So they've been able
to win a normal a normal game scoring ten runs.
They won the pitching battle and Eurie Perez was the
one he went. I got Schlittler last year, and then
they won with Junk and Rodin, So they've been able
to win the high scoring game, the low scoring game.
In the middle of game, Miami gets up. Everybody wants
to beat the Yankees. That's just the way it's always
And when you're a National League team, how do you
hear about the Yankees? You finally get a chance to
play them, you're going to be up for that. And
starting the season five on one, you know Miami's coming
to play in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they're going to come to play. I
ultimately think the Marlins plus one and a half would
be the correct way to play it, getting that road
team on the run line. But at the current price,
it's it's kind of tough to justify as a straight bet.
Maybe it'll make the parlay. You'll have to wait till
the end of the show to find that out. You
get all of our plays, someone in the chat says,
I'm just here to fade Trig. Well, listen, if you
want to fade me, you can get all of our
plays on the double play package and just fade them
if that's what you want.
Speaker 3: To do, Or you can get Brian and me and
fade out him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean listen, I will probably beat you
long term, especially if you're trying to fade the minor
league baseball that I put out. But hey, if that's
what you want to do, it's a free country.
Speaker 3: Last I checked to, I'd like to challenge some of
these trash tuckers in our chat, to challenge some of them,
say let's go one week, let's go one on one
and if you can beat me, fair game.
Speaker 2: You know outide of the day before we got lineups,
we have anything going on. So and I'm I'm totally honest.
I've gotten off to a rough start to Brandon's been running.
If you're lucky to buy that package and you're you're
you're looking for a short term Brandon, make sure you
got Brandon in there, because he's doing a great.
Speaker 1: Than anyone anyone in the chat. Anyone in the chat.
You want to book me let me know. We'll set
it up. We're gonna figure it out.
Speaker 3: We're gonna get three thousand bits the time, we're gonna
have a hot streak, We're gonna have a cold streak.
You know it's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So anyway, but let's let's move on. TB.
I want to come back to you because you mentioned
a game, uh that I'm interested in. I'm actually gonna
give the guy that said that a play to fade
in a minute right here. But you brought up a
game that you kind of made the point well, you know,
maybe it would play better in this and I tend
to agree with where you were going with that. So
I'm gonna throw you Raised Twins. You talked about the
twins coming home from Kansas City where they had to
sort of fight the elements for a few days, and
then they turn around with off without the off day
to play this game at home. So talk to me
about Raised Twins and sort of you know the point
you were making in the last breakdown.
Speaker 3: Okay, So I made a free play video on this game.
Uh and uh, wayger talk probably has not uploaded it yet,
but it'll be on wayger Talk's YouTube channel very shortly.
Bailey Ober is a guy I like to fade. I don't.
I don't like backing him, and there's a couple of
reasons why he's not very good. It is the main reason,
but uh, if you look at how he pitches against, uh,
these Tampa Bay Rays, it's not very good. Well, I'm sorry,
he doesn't actually have that have good stats against them,
but he's getting off to a poor start this season.
And I like Joe Boil better actually, so I've got
Boyle ranked higher than him. Both bullpens I have ranked
as being somewhat trashy so far to start the season,
but I got Tampa Bay hitting better. I've got both
bullpens bad. But I like Joe Boil better than Bailey Ober.
Despite Ober's numbers in the past against these batters. I
like the Rays. The Twins came off. They had two
nights ago. They played a night game where they got crushed,
and then they came back and played in the morning
where they won five to one, and now they have
to go home and play another game. I think that's
pretty taxing, even though these guys are pretty used to
the travel because that's basically part of their job. That's
their life is traveling and playing. But yeah, that's pretty exhausting.
So I expect to let down here for the Twins.
And if you cap baseball, you know that the come
home play the next day letdown is a real thing.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I bet the race here. Bet I bet raised
minus one oh four. I made it closer to minus
one twenty. I see a lot of those same sort
of situational angles for Tampa. They actually had probably a
better travel setup, had a day off. They were in Milwaukee,
So Milwaukee day off over to Minnesota probably better than Minnesota,
playing in rain and fog and whatever, oversleeping, whatever else
was going on. You know, people oversleep in the game,
although that wasn't their team, but still early start time.
It was just a messy few days in Kansas City.
And now you have to go and sort of quickly
get ready for your home opener. There's going to be
all the fanfare surrounding that. I think they could be
And I'll come to you to close this one down, Brian.
I think they could be, you know, more focused than
the Raise. That is more focused for this game than
the Twins. One other thing I'll put out there before
I throw it to Brian. You know, Boyle, he was
supposed to start the season in Durham, Okay, he was
supposed to be in Triple A to start the season.
This rotation spot opens up for him because Ryan Pepio
goes down with the injury. And this is a guy
that has had his shot at being in a rotation
in the past and it hasn't worked out. And he's
also been phenomenal for like seasons at Triple A and
he just has not been able to stick at the
big league level, and it's been a consistency thing. But
I really felt like he was coming into this year
and his best chance to succeed to this point. You
go back to his first start a couple seeing I
singles in the first inning of that game against the Cardinals,
a little bit of tough luck to go down to nothing.
He ends up going six innings a quality start, gives
up nothing the rest of the time, and doesn't walk
a single batter. I kind of like Boyle coming into
this year, and I think the Raids are going to
be in better position to play today than the Twins. Brian,
go ahead, what did you have to say about this?
Speaker 2: Yeah? First off, with boyle h, he's a guy you're
talking about. Ronick Walkers. In his major league career, he's
walked about eleven percent of batters and Brady Bailey ober
has not been a good pitcher the last two years.
And yet the total in this game is seven and
a half. If I would have without knowing anything else,
just looking at a seven and a half, he'd say, well,
you got to bet the over in this one. But
when you take a look at the weather forecast here,
target field is expected to get twelve twelve percent less
runs in this game, twenty seven percent less home runs.
The win is blowing in and that's why you have that. Also,
I do want you kind of touched on it with
Curter Jensen for Tampa or for Toronto over sleeping yesterday.
I'm on Twitter and we've got a lot of people
now with everybody's betting. You know, sports betting has really
taken off. First thing I hear he's scratched out of
the lineup, the game is fixed. What the hell is
going on? He was planning on betting his homers. Perhaps
it's that's going it's a cheating going. He overslept, and
of course the coach is going to betch him, bet
you what happens. That's what a good coach does, and
so people overreact to something before they even though what happens.
That's the that's the world we live in right now.
But it's funny that the first thing that comes out
of people's mind when he scratched, oh the game has fixed.
Something's going on. Come on, now, step back a little
bit and look at it a different way. He's he's
having a great season so far. He's your number one catcher.
There's a reason why that happened, and I just wanted
to get that out there. It's just very frustrating when
people jump to conclusions without actually putting in the work
and checking it out themselves.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just want to be crystal clear for the
person or people in the chat that want to fade me.
I bet the race. So I'm letting you guys know
that I bet you, so if you want to, there's
your fate and that will be my parlay leg By
the way, I bet you bet them too, h TV
bet them too, so then you'd be fading Tokyo, Brandon,
I don't think you want to do that right now, Okay,
I understand me. Out of the gate. You know, I
I did win three straight months, but it's uh, it's
been a little slow to start, you know, the last
week or so. So I get that. I would not
pay Tokyo Brandon right now, and that's what you'd be
doing if you bet the twins here, So I wouldn't
do that. Okay, you can see I'm all like jazzed uff.
I was like, you know, Leonard, I got to go to.
Speaker 3: Everyone, so just relax, people, We're gonna bet a thousand
times fired.
Speaker 1: Up I was. I spent like six hours with Andy
Lane yesterday, multiple of which we talked about how we
we left all the winners off of the stuff we
bet yesterday, only bet the losers. So we were like,
you know, we were all jazzed up for for that.
But yeah, no, we had a great time in Indye.
We met a couple of uh uh wager talk viewers,
came up to us at Hinkle took a picture with someone.
So we had a great time. That was. It was
a good uh good time at hinkle Field House. U.
I don't know about that. Yeah. Red Panda was there
by you. She never misses. Red Panda never misses great
halftime entertainment no matter what. But we got more baseball
to talk about. Let's continue, Let's move on. I'm gonna
go to the chat here. I'll go I'm gonna give
this one back to Brian, and then I got a
different one for Tokyo Brandon because Reynolds says, uh, the
A's are swinging at every pitch they see right now. Yeah,
I would say that that is one of my I
I don't think it's like this crazy observation. If you've
watched A's baseball so far this year, you know, we
came into the season and said, I think I called
them a bottom five team. I don't think anyone else
on this panel was particularly high on them. You know,
I cited the pitching being a real issue. But what
I didn't think was going to happen because I like
the lineup, was that they were going to have the
plate discipline of like a little league team, and that's
what we've kind of seen so far. Now, Brian Leonard,
they do flip back to being in Sacramento here, which
may help. So actually, I'm going to frame this question differently.
Do you think it helps them or hurts them going
back to Sacramento for this game against an Astros team
that doesn't matter who's on the roster, all they do
is win.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Houston has been a detriment to me so far
this year. Javier is going against Springs here, Springs being
the lefty. Yeah. I yesterday we talked a little bit
all the Mets wait only three games, Randa get in
more in depth and we normally would yesterday and we
talked about the Mets struggling out of the strike zone
more than anybody in baseball, and that's what's happening Atlanta
or with the Athletics. They've got a little bit of
pressure on him this year because they had a pretty
good season last year and they're swinging the pitches they
shouldn't be swinging at, swinging out on the zone. Yeah,
that happens when you have a young team. For the Mets.
I don't know what the excuse is there other than
they play in New York and there there's a lot
of pressure on them. But Javier is going against Springs
in this one. It's game slightly pick them right now
if you take a look at it. We take a
look at what these teams, these two pitchers did last year.
Javier only through only through a small amount of innings
last year, only four innings. You take a look at
why he's done against lefties and righties. He's much better
against the lefties than he is against righties. Last year
against Reddies he walked twelve point four. And in this game,
we've got five readies going and four lefties going for
the A's. When you take a look at the opposing pitcher,
if I could find it on my chart here, Jeffrey
Springs jeff Rings last year about eleven point three percent
strike out my as walker a show against Ready's and
about you know, eleven point four, So he's been pretty
equal against each other. Uh, he's gonna be facing eight
right handed batters in this lineup today for the opposition.
I have. What I look for in this game is
we're looking at a total of ten ten and a half.
Make sure you check the wind and everything in in
Sacramento today. Let me see if I can get a
quick look at this from the standpoint of weather. Okay,
let me get to that. And we're looking at uh
without without knowing which games coming up. It takes me
a minute to get to everything. And I apologize for that.
It's supposed to. It's supposed to be the way the
way to slightly end slightly from right to left, So
it's not the win's not going to be much of
a factor in this one. Home runs are only going
to be up zero point one over what they normally
would be. So this is one of those games where
I don't think the weather's going to have a big
effect on it. And for this line is telling you
right now that if you've seen a ten and a
half out there, that they think it's going to be
a highest scoring game. I don't know. I don't know
if I'm going to get there on this one. I
would prefer to play the other As you mentioned, the
A's are not swinging the bat well and Houston is
especially Alva has gotten off a terrific start for Houston.
If I play it, I'm maybe looking at the Astros here.
They're a team that I didn't expect to be on
a lot this year, but they're playing very well. I
don't know if I trust Javier as much as some
of the other Houston pitchers I like like Burrows, and
obviously their ace is excellent, but Springs pitched pretty well
in the first time out, got everything together. But yeah,
instid in this price for rage, isn't It doesn't look
to be a bad bet to me at this point.
Speaker 1: Uh Tokyo Brandon, I want to I was gonna move on,
but someone made a point that I want to talk about.
So I'm actually gonna come to you on this game
because I want to get your take on like I
see now, I'm gonna pull this back up on the screen. Sorry,
I couldn't read it. It's very small on my screen. Basically,
if you look at the advanced numbers from opening Day
to now, you have the highest rated offense in the
Astros against the lowest rated offense in the A's. I
would bet my life that the Astros will not be
the highest rated offense in the American League this year
and the A's will not be the lowest rated offense
in the American League. Because I still think the A's
can hit. They're just swinging. They need to they need
they need to tighten up their plate discipline right now
because that that lineup is still has a lot of
offensive upside there. So talk to me about like that.
I mean, that would make me want to play against
the ass and maybe back the A's at some point,
but I still have my reservations on the as so
speak on that point to our viewer here.
Speaker 3: Sure, I mean, you know, my general rule is you
keep rolling with it until it changes and until the
Astros bats cool off. I would roll with them. I
don't have a play in this game, but you know,
you ride the streak until it's over and you'll be undefeated.
You'll you'll have one loss and x amount of wins.
Speaker 2: Right, So.
Speaker 3: A's have the better bullpen and Christian Javier had a
horrible start. Ou He's not that bad of a picture Springs.
Springs is just a guy. So I think Javier is
a better pitcher than Springs, although his first start didn't
indicate that. If anything, I'd play the Astros here, but
I'm not playing this game. So there is one you'll
give me five minutes at the end the show. There's
a bet I want to give out to everyone at
the end.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I guess that the Oh sorry, Brian, go ahead,
go ahead.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. Maybe I should put my whole hand up
from now on so that way, I'm not giving anybody
a finger. I I will just I know I know
what you the way you handicap. It's the current situation.
I will argue that the Houston has got the better
bullpen if you take a look at the entire season.
I'm a I'm a big fan of Blah blah and
uh and bray and obviously when they get their closure back,
they've got some good some good guys in the bullpen.
I really like Ryan Weiss, who should be a starter,
but he's not. But I'm not impressed with the bullpen.
Maybe right now they're pitching a little bit better, but
we we are as as Tokyo or excuse me as
a trigger's trying to get to We're looking to produce
project what's going to happen from now on, and I
think from now on Houston will have the better bullpen
the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a series where I will give the
A's a pretty good look. Springs is guilty of leaving
the ball up sometimes and it's something that you just
do not want to do. You can't do that in
this ballpark. So that is probably not enough for me
to get on the A's today, though I get there's
I don't think the Astros are starting this season eight
and two. Let's put it that way, and that that
would be if Fay sweep this weekend. That's essentially what
you're saying they're gonna do. So May. It may not
be here, but I think, I think I will go.
I will likely find my way to the window with
the A's at some point this weekend, and I'll probably
hate myself for doing it. But we'll, you know, we'll
see if that spot presents itself. Togo Brandon, I'm gonna
come back to you here because I can't figure out
if the Astros hot start is the Astros just you know,
once again putting a winning team on the field. Of course,
I you know, folks underestimated them all year last year,
and yet here they are winning all these games. Or
it was the last few days, the Red Sox just
simply not being able to do anything that resembles playing
the baseball anyone expected them to play so far the season,
one in five to start the year. Now the Red
Sox head back to Fenway Park, they take on the Padres.
Do you have any interest in catching the falling knife?
As Drew Martin Bettz likes to say.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna I have an opinion here that might
not be very popular, But honestly, I don't think the
Red Sox are a very good team. I just don't
like the Red Sox. I think they're playing just about
they're probably peaking right now. In my opinion. This is
about as good as it's going to get for them,
I think, and it's not very good. I know you
guys have high hopes for the Red Sox, you talked
about it on previous shows. I don't, but see this
is the They might be the Milwaukee Brewers of last year.
When I trash them like this, they're gonna surge like
a phoenix from the Ashes. But in today's game, I
actually like King. I thought he was a great acquisition
from the Yankees and Sunny Gray I used to like him,
but the last two years he's faded a lot. And uh,
I think the Padres have the better bullpen. I think
they have the better starter, and neither team is hitting
the side of a barn at the moment. So in
a tight, close game like this, I would give the
Padres a big edge. Padres bats finally caught a little
bit of fire in their last game, and they're just
uber talented. This lineup for the Padres, so yeah, if
if there's any way I would look I would look
that way.
Speaker 1: Saying the Red Sox have peaked when they're one and
five to start the seasons as a diabolical statement, right.
Speaker 3: I told you, I told you to say. I'm telling you,
I told you it's an unpopular opinion.
Speaker 1: They looked. I mean, the Red Sox have looked horrendous
so far to start the year, but that's not gonna
that's not gonna be that the case all year. I mean,
I'm not saying that they're you know, I think the
other day a lot of people. There are people that
I respect that have them a lot higher than I
do to start the year. But I'll tell you who
I don't have very high. That's the San Diego Padres.
I think the Padres at two and four is exactly
where I expected them to be. They are compared to
the market. They're as big of a fade for me
in the National League as you're going to find. I
think that this team, I don't think this team sniffs
the playoffs this year. That's my seeing Brian Leonard. I
think the Padres finished third or fourth in the National League,
and I kind of want to go against them here
right now.
Speaker 2: The Padres have two wins, they're expected to have three.
The Red Sox have one win, They're expected to have
one point eight. Both teams have underperformed so far on
what I expect him to do. I agree, Yeah, the
Red Sox or will be in contention. Every team in
that division could be into contention, even Tampa Bay, who
a lot of people have rated higher than I do.
That division is up for grass. Yes, the Yankees are
the best team in the division, but not that much
more than anybody else. I'm going agreement on San Diego.
I'm not a big fan of the Padres. As a matter
of fact, I think Arizona will probably finish in second place,
and I don't think Brandon's a big fan of Arizona.
But maybe I just misread it. But you've got two teams,
two teams right now. Most it's about a one twenty favorite.
In this game, that makes sense. Usually your home team
is a fifty basically a fifty two fifty chance of winning.
So that's basically what we have here. So you're saying,
so the linesmaker is saying that these two teams are
equal from a starting pitcher standpoint. As much as I
like Sonny Gray. I think came slightly by than Sonny Gray.
I'm worried about Gray pitching in this division, to be
totally honest with you, I like him as a pitcher,
but he's going to be facing some really good betters
all the time. And you didn't have that problem when
you pitched in Saint Louis. So I'm not a huge
Sonny Gray fan this season. But from a standpoint of value,
the line is really about what I would have made it.
I probably would have made it about the one fifteen range,
so I'm not thinking I don't think we have enough
advantage to play it, and your total is eight and
a half to the under. For the most part, this
is a good hitting environment. You don't get a lot
of home runs here because the wall on the left field,
but a lot of those easy check swing from left
handers going the opposite way, easy doubles. Let me just
take a quick look at the right now. They expect
the wind is blown out a fanway, but the rods
are expected point three or three percent higher than normal,
But the home runs are expected eleven percent less than normal,
So the way is blowing out. But this is one
stadium in which that big wall in left field. The
winds don't matter nearly as much as it does some
other places.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you know King had such a bad spring,
he came out and pitched okay in his debut. I
think I think he pitched. I don't think he pitched
as good as that stat line suggests. Like you're you
quickly look and say, oh, five shutout innings, one hit,
still had four walks, like he was still putting guys.
You know a couple of guys on base. But I
mean looked much different than he looked in the spring.
I'm with you, Brian. My price comes out right in
the right, in the range of where it is. The
Red Sox have done nothing to inspire confidence, but my
gut says they bounce back at some point this weekend.
I don't know if it's here, it would be Red
Sox or pass. For me, I'm gonna go to Tokyo
Brandon right now and give him the floor parlay leg
what's the bet you wanted to talk about? Tv?
Speaker 3: Okay? If you guys follow me on Twitter, X Tokyo brand, Tokyo,
I put out the ops. Guys who hitter props, you
should back today. I announced that on my Twitter about
an hour ago, and Julio Rodriguez tops the list. I
like this Mariners here, Brian Wu against Debt Meers, Seattle
against the Angels minus one sixty eight. I would not
as a professional cap or put that a minus one
sixty eight out and make people pay for it. But
if it's a parlay, I think it's great odds for
Brian Wu. Brian Wu does struggle on the roads sometimes.
I remember, particularly last year when I had him and
he went to New York and the Yankees crushed him.
But generally he's he's he's a top twenty major league starter,
and Debtmers is not bullpen worlds apart. I think Seattle
on the money line is going to be my parlay
leg And go to my Twitter. I have a whole
list of hitters you should back if you're betting hitting
props today, I.
Speaker 1: Can't argue with you their TV. I still love this
Mariners team, even though they dropped two of three to
the Yankees and I had to bounce them down to
number two. What are we looking at for a line there?
What I said.
Speaker 2: Find it as low as one fifty three all the
way up to one sevday. Most of them are in
the one sixty range, so you're getting.
Speaker 1: Expected let's say one minus one sixty minus one sixties good,
minus one sixties. Good for the par life.
Speaker 3: So you makes some weird comments, I'm fedorable today.
Speaker 1: That's good by you. The best.
Speaker 3: I have to ask you real quick.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: I know we're pressed for time. What is that hoodie?
That's that is cool?
Speaker 1: This is an old school Michigan Wolverine soodie. It's the
really old wolverine guy that's like got the mean look
on his face. Yeah, I actually got this.
Speaker 3: What that is?
Speaker 1: I got this at the arena in ann Arbor a
couple of years ago. Actually it was there with all
the wager talking, a bunch of wager talk. We went
I think we had like eight of the pretty much
the whole home office.
Speaker 3: We went to Johnny Michigan, Johnny the Michigan Homer.
Speaker 1: We went to see Michigan take on at the time
number one per Due, Zach Eddie and that great Purdue team.
That was a That was a fun night out in
ann Arbor. Mark Clambert says national champs. Some say the
national championship is Saturday Michigan Arizona. A lot of people
like the winner of that game. That's Tokyo Brandon's to
Tokyo Brandon's alma mater, the Arizona Wildcats. That's gonna be awesome.
I do think I'm going by the way. I do
think I will be in the building. I might be
watching from another planet and the six hundreds, but I
will be in the building for that game. If you're
in Indye, hit me up, shoot me a DM. I'll
be around all weekend. Also, before I go to Brian Leonard,
we have a great double play package. I know I've
said it before on this site. It's you picked two
so whatever to handicappers fit your style or whatever two
handicappers you feel like. I mean, right now, Tokyo Brandon's
is hot. You should probably ride him. And you know
we've all got plays up for sale on the sade.
Anything else to promote in any other sports today? And
what's your best bet for the show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got nothing up right now. I don't have
to do the Hockey Show today, so I will be
able to put out my plays earlier. Keep in mind,
there's a lot of early games today, so as opposed
to yesterday, where we had one early game. I had
to wait I think four and a half hours for
another game to be played. We've got lots of baseball
going on today. I do want to point out that
Dettner's is a different pitcher this year. I like him
better than Brandon does. But I can't argue with Brandon
right now. He's on fire. I'm gonna take a look
at the Dodgers game. She's going against Michelas for Washington,
Washington's a team, as we mentioned many times, has probably
the worst bullpen in Major League Baseball, and I don't
understand why Michless continues to get starts for this team.
He hasn't been good in a long time. Unfortunately, the
total on this is nine and a half. The Dodgers
just faced a very good Cleveland pitching staff. Now they
get to face the Washington Nationals pitching staff. If you're
taking a look at the weather on today's game, the
wind is blowing out straight out to center field, expecting
eight percent more runs than normal. Your home run percentage
is fifteen percent higher than it normally would be. And
another reason, not only is it I want to fade Micholas,
Sheian It was a guy that everybody targeted coming into
the season. They loved him, they thought he could be
the underdog ace of the Dodgers, but he's had been
problems with velocity. Even last time out, he started the
game at about ninety five and a half miles per hour.
By the time he finished, he was at ninety one miles.
Dropping four miles an hour down to ninety one and
a half is something I'm really worried about. So I'm
going to play the over nine and a half between
the Dodgers and Washington. It would not surprise me if
the Dodgers score eight runs in this game and we
only need two out of Washington. But I want to
fed Shan as well, So I'm gonna play the over
nine and a half. It's basically even money miners want
ten either way, and that will be my best bet
on the show today.
Speaker 1: All right, Dodgers, NAT's over nine and a half. That's
an early game. So I didn't come on the show
with the intention of giving out one of my client plays,
but you guys got me fired up. Someone in the
chat said they wanted to fade me, and so apparently
apparently if you talk, you know if you talk enough
trash in the chat, you're gonna talk my plays out
of me. Is what we learned on the show today.
So I am going to use the rays in the
parlay because I already said I was going to. But
I'm gonna use my five minutes here at the end
of the show to bring up another game game I
was gonna use in the parlay, and that's the Detroit
Tigers for my guy g Hurt, who you know, I
know he's a little down on his team right now.
They went out to the desert, got smacked around a
little bit. I think the Tigers bounce back today. You know.
I like Mike McGreevy. I think he's gonna be you know,
I think he's gonna be a good piece for the
Cardinals long term. But he his first start was a
little bit deceiving. There was a it was very the
ball was not carrying at all in that game. Uh.
There was a couple of like one one oh eight
mile an hour hits off the bat YONDI Diaz right
to lead off the game ended up getting caught at
the wall. There was like three or four absolute laser
beams that just did not carry out of the ballpark.
He ends up getting through that game pretty much. I
don't even think he gave up a hit when it
was all said and done, maybe gave up one hit
to the Rays. I just don't think that that's gonna
fly in this game in Detroit. I know Detroit's had
their struggles out of the gate, but some of their struggles,
you know, the one game they pretty much I mean
they blew a huge lead, sick you know, lost nine
to six. The first game against Arizona seven to five.
I think some of their struggles were more pitching related
than hitting, and so if they can jump on a
grievy here, I think I like their chances to get
a home win. So we have a couple of minutes TV.
You're laughing, Do you want to chime in on Tigers
or or you know, let us know what you're chuckling
at in the chat right now, right?
Speaker 3: I love our audience, man, our chat is so funny.
Adam's coming out, given to play and someone says it's
the Spike Parley of the day. I love you guys.
Oh yeah, our audience is the best at wager Talk.
By the way, No, I just want to promote my
Twitter because I've been putting out outs props, strikeout props,
all kinds of free information. So if you don't even
if you don't buy our plays, you can make a
good judgment call on your own. And I give out
some free plays as well. And today I am featuring
the album cover for Rush Moving Pictures and I'm in it.
So my Twitter is kind of funny, so give it
a look. That's all I wanted to promote.
Speaker 1: Yeah, two minutes left. Any any any thoughts on tigersh
my god, my mind is escaping me.
Speaker 2: Cardinals. Thanks, it's early in the morning for everybody. Yeah.
McGreevey's a guy. I'm lucky to fade. I I came
to the season thinking there's gonna be value on sating Lois.
So far there has been, obviously, but right now they're
the most overrated team. Uh they should be one point
four wins less than what they have and uh yeah,
the Tiger, the Tigers should be at two point two
wins in there at two, so there's value on that.
I much prefer the starter for the Tigers. I prefer
that Detroit obviously playing at home. This is a big
deal in Detroit. I'm sure Johnny Detroit in the office.
Being from Detroit, will be at the game today. It's
something they do every year. I wish if it wasn't
so damn cold in Detroit and I left Cleveland for
that reason, I would go back and go to the
games with them. But I like this Detroit situations today,
and I think that's a winner. I think you got
a winner there.
Speaker 1: All right, a couple quick promos before we're out of here.
One of our last full Court Press shows will be
in fifteen minutes right here on the wager Talk YouTube channel,
where Robino and I will break down the final four
games in addition to the other games that are still
going on, so check that out. The other thing is
tomorrow we will have our first Saturday Total Basis and
we are at a different time, so Total Basis is
gonna take over the last call time slot on Saturdays.
It's gonna be this show, but it's gonna be two
hours later in the eleven am Eastern time slot. So
for you guys that are not early risers for this show,
we've got it covered. We're gonna go two hours later
on Saturday in our first Saturday Total Bases will be tomorrow,
and then fine the parlay one more time, Tokyo Brandon
Mariners minus one sixty, I'm on the Rais minus one
oh five, and Brian Leonard is gonna kick us off
with Dodgers Nationals over nine and a half. That is
today's show and we will see you guys tomorrow eleven
am Eastern for more total basis, see you guys then,