WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.480 --> 00:00:02.560 Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 2 00:00:02.600 --> 00:00:05.120 you today about a way that you can help support 3 00:00:05.120 --> 00:00:08.679 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 4 00:00:08.960 --> 00:00:12.400 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 5 00:00:12.480 --> 00:00:15.720 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 6 00:00:15.800 --> 00:00:18.280 you sign up, you get access to all of our 7 00:00:18.320 --> 00:00:21.760 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 8 00:00:21.760 --> 00:00:25.559 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 9 00:00:26.280 --> 00:00:28.719 but this is the biggest and best way that you 10 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:33.520 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 11 00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:36.479 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 12 00:00:36.479 --> 00:00:39.520 out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 13 00:00:40.799 --> 00:00:43.079 All right, guys, welcome to another episode of eyes On. 14 00:00:43.560 --> 00:00:46.679 I'm not doing Andy's accent. We have Andy Milliber and 15 00:00:46.759 --> 00:00:50.880 Jason Lyons, Mick Maulroy. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody listening a 16 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:55.240 lot and watching. I hope yours is good. A lot 17 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:59.439 going on from last week Ceasefire and with Israel Lebanon 18 00:00:59.679 --> 00:01:03.079 or see Fire with Israel and has below. Really it's 19 00:01:03.119 --> 00:01:06.200 sixty days. It's going to come right into about five 20 00:01:06.280 --> 00:01:11.439 or six days into President elect Trump's new term. So 21 00:01:11.680 --> 00:01:14.319 what are your guys' thoughts on that? And is there 22 00:01:14.319 --> 00:01:16.280 a chance of a cease firing gods or two? I'd 23 00:01:16.319 --> 00:01:20.599 like to touch on that after Who wants to take 24 00:01:20.599 --> 00:01:23.799 it first? Rating, guys, I. 25 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.439 Can start if you want, go for me. I mean, 26 00:01:26.480 --> 00:01:28.319 obviously it's a good thing. Whenever you get a sea 27 00:01:28.359 --> 00:01:32.560 star anywhere, right, that means the killing feeling is halted 28 00:01:32.599 --> 00:01:38.719 and there's an opportunity to potentially to end it diplomatically, 29 00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:43.719 right start with. Obviously, what's really going to matter to 30 00:01:43.799 --> 00:01:46.959 Israel's whether they can get their sixty thousand display citizens 31 00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:53.200 back to their homes in northern Israel and whether hes 32 00:01:53.239 --> 00:01:57.959 Bela adheres to the agreement, which of course was required 33 00:01:58.000 --> 00:02:03.719 under the seventeen oh one unscarre. But they were weren't 34 00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:07.040 complying obviously, So it's there's a lot to be seen. 35 00:02:07.079 --> 00:02:10.319 But the first step is there. They've they've started. There's 36 00:02:10.439 --> 00:02:14.960 there's skirmishes and both sides accusing the other of breaking it, 37 00:02:15.039 --> 00:02:17.680 but it does seem to beholding, and I think that's important. 38 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:20.680 What help, what hopefully will happen now is what should 39 00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:25.879 have been the case before, which is Hesbla withdraws the 40 00:02:26.199 --> 00:02:30.680 Tawny River, the laugh, the Lebanese Armed Forces UH gets 41 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:35.479 down into southern Lebanon, insures that all their positions, you know, 42 00:02:35.560 --> 00:02:41.120 their armaments, their arsenals and them aren't there anymore. And 43 00:02:41.159 --> 00:02:44.439 that could give Israel confidence to be able to allow 44 00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:48.520 their citizens to return. And the second part, although I 45 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:50.360 think it was fair to say most people have given 46 00:02:50.439 --> 00:02:54.639 up on the seasfire in Gaza, I think this puts 47 00:02:55.159 --> 00:02:58.960 a moss in the position where they're more likely to 48 00:02:59.080 --> 00:03:03.080 accept something they wouldn't have accepted a four Why because 49 00:03:03.120 --> 00:03:07.120 they're isolated more obviously hesplaws about out at least for now. 50 00:03:08.680 --> 00:03:13.439 They realized that there's an incoming Trump administration who could 51 00:03:13.439 --> 00:03:18.000 be more supportive even than the Biden administration of Prime 52 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:21.199 Minister men Yahoo's efforts, and I think they can see 53 00:03:21.240 --> 00:03:23.240 the writing on the wall when it comes to that. 54 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:27.400 So hopefully that does translate primarily to the ceasefire and 55 00:03:27.400 --> 00:03:31.319 the release of all hostages, and then of course a 56 00:03:31.400 --> 00:03:34.560 dramatic increase in humanitarian aid which is down to I 57 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:37.080 think around thirty trucks a day, which is just not 58 00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:40.520 sustainable for human life. So for all those reasons, I 59 00:03:40.560 --> 00:03:42.520 do think you know a lot of people said it 60 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:44.840 wasn't going to happen in Lebanon. So hats off to 61 00:03:44.919 --> 00:03:49.680 the negotiators, Amos Hookstein and Brett and all the guys 62 00:03:49.719 --> 00:03:52.680 that work so hard on that. They deserve credit because 63 00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:55.840 they certainly got a lot of criticism for not getting 64 00:03:55.840 --> 00:03:59.800 it done. So that's one thing, and then I think 65 00:03:59.840 --> 00:04:02.599 that could could actually help when it comes to the 66 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:09.400 negotiations for god Andy, Yeah, I think no. 67 00:04:09.479 --> 00:04:13.280 I mean, I totally agree with Meg that it's the 68 00:04:13.439 --> 00:04:19.439 a it's a tremendous job by the negotiators because frankly, 69 00:04:19.519 --> 00:04:22.800 they didn't have a lot on that side. You know, 70 00:04:22.839 --> 00:04:27.160 there wasn't like there was a strong effort from the 71 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:30.920 Israeli team to support them. I mean, we had Inet 72 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:34.480 wilthon the other day, and remember, you know, I just 73 00:04:34.519 --> 00:04:40.000 want to remind listeners that although some people seem to 74 00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:43.560 think that what she was saying was extreme, what she 75 00:04:43.680 --> 00:04:47.920 was saying kind of represents mainstream Israeli thought and in 76 00:04:47.959 --> 00:04:50.439 many ways, I mean, she was recommended by many people 77 00:04:50.480 --> 00:04:52.879 that I know in Israel, and so what she said 78 00:04:52.879 --> 00:04:55.720 on Lebanon was, hey, listen, our jobs to go in 79 00:04:55.759 --> 00:04:58.079 there and mow the grass whenever this happens, and it's 80 00:04:58.160 --> 00:05:01.120 up to everyone else to fix it, right, So that 81 00:05:01.199 --> 00:05:04.879 kind of attitude was prevalent to you know, facing the 82 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:08.480 negotiation team. So they did, I thought, a tremendous job. 83 00:05:09.319 --> 00:05:11.439 There's an uphill struggle and you know, good on them, 84 00:05:11.439 --> 00:05:14.079 and the killing has stopped. As Mick points out, some 85 00:05:14.240 --> 00:05:19.839 three to four thousand Lebanese, you know, whether civilians or 86 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:26.519 I mean obviously mostly civilians. I'm dead, and and families 87 00:05:26.560 --> 00:05:31.079 already moving back into southern Lebanon. The butt is this 88 00:05:31.399 --> 00:05:37.480 and it's there's but you know, the Israeli is obviously 89 00:05:38.000 --> 00:05:41.600 hearing the obstacle to this and the Litani River, yes, 90 00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:44.959 was bestified by seventeen or one resolution. It's a blated 91 00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:48.959 effort to enforce that. But some might argue that it's 92 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:52.360 almost irrelevant now for a couple of reasons. One is 93 00:05:52.399 --> 00:05:57.040 the you know, the although his bolla is on the ropes, 94 00:05:58.160 --> 00:06:02.199 they certainly have or capable of getting more missiles and 95 00:06:02.279 --> 00:06:05.839 rockets that range further than the Litani River, you know, 96 00:06:06.439 --> 00:06:08.480 and a lot of their sites are in the Bakar 97 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:12.040 Valley all around bay Rout for the longer range missile system, 98 00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:16.240 so that that wasn't the greatest threat, and The other 99 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:20.000 part is the part of seventeen o one. We've talked 100 00:06:20.000 --> 00:06:24.680 about this before. Seventeen oh one was don't get me wrong, 101 00:06:24.720 --> 00:06:26.399 and you know, back when it was imposed back in 102 00:06:26.399 --> 00:06:28.720 seventeen oh six, it was the only possible solution. But 103 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:33.600 the point six right, what's that six? 104 00:06:33.720 --> 00:06:33.959 Right? 105 00:06:34.399 --> 00:06:37.759 Yeah, it was not for the two thousand and six war. 106 00:06:37.920 --> 00:06:42.360 But what is perhaps not recognized is the fact that 107 00:06:42.399 --> 00:06:46.639 a lot of most of his ballast fighters are from 108 00:06:46.879 --> 00:06:49.720 that area, are from salth I mean, they're not imports. 109 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:53.439 They lived there, they live in the villages, So it 110 00:06:53.480 --> 00:06:56.360 doesn't make sense they pulled with militia back. Now, if 111 00:06:56.360 --> 00:07:00.199 there is a concerted effort to disarm people, you know, 112 00:07:00.279 --> 00:07:05.319 conducted by the Laugh and Uniform, backed by Uniform, backed 113 00:07:05.319 --> 00:07:09.399 by the international community, to disarm militias south of the 114 00:07:09.480 --> 00:07:12.120 Tiny River, then you know, then then it'll. 115 00:07:11.879 --> 00:07:12.560 Have some teeth. 116 00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:15.959 But that is a really that's a hard task. I mean, 117 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:21.600 at least before the the is really offensive his followers 118 00:07:21.839 --> 00:07:24.839 in any way stronger than the Laugh as far as 119 00:07:25.160 --> 00:07:28.360 weapons inventory and as far as kind of far I 120 00:07:28.399 --> 00:07:33.839 don't want to say moral weight within that community, but 121 00:07:33.920 --> 00:07:37.480 that but subtly credibility within that community and that is 122 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:42.079 the problem. And so I'd like to see a concerted 123 00:07:42.120 --> 00:07:47.279 effort to bolster the laugh both morally and and you know, 124 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:52.519 with trainers with weapons, to to get them back in 125 00:07:52.519 --> 00:07:55.319 the game. I don't know, and I don't know you know, Mignosis, 126 00:07:55.519 --> 00:07:59.839 but I mean the laugh suddenly, the laugh is that 127 00:08:00.000 --> 00:08:02.680 actually been a success story in many ways since two 128 00:08:02.680 --> 00:08:03.600 thousand and six. 129 00:08:03.800 --> 00:08:04.319 It is. 130 00:08:06.000 --> 00:08:10.600 It is cross denominational h and and has held the 131 00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:14.680 line pretty well as far as remaining that way. And 132 00:08:14.759 --> 00:08:18.319 the Special Operations Forces are very good indeed, so there 133 00:08:18.360 --> 00:08:22.439 is something to build on that they're dismissed and talked 134 00:08:22.439 --> 00:08:27.639 about contemptuously by the by the Israelis. But part of 135 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:31.439 their problem is being lack of political back backing, both 136 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:35.279 internationally and within the country itself. So that has to change. 137 00:08:35.600 --> 00:08:38.159 And if there is that effort, and if there are 138 00:08:39.440 --> 00:08:43.879 you know, international they're going to need trainers, but they're 139 00:08:43.879 --> 00:08:49.720 going to need lots of weapons and support. And given that, 140 00:08:50.279 --> 00:08:54.919 then maybe this this piece, uh, this cease fire has 141 00:08:54.960 --> 00:08:58.080 some legs on it. A commitment. 142 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:00.720 I'm saying, yeah, and just for every by laugh is 143 00:09:00.840 --> 00:09:06.600 Lebanese Armed Forces NAT and YAHOO. And some of his 144 00:09:06.679 --> 00:09:08.759 comments said like now is the time to focus on 145 00:09:09.360 --> 00:09:15.559 Iran Ah And I mean, you know, I'm gonna editorialize 146 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:20.399 maybe you should focus on cease firing, hot and Gaza, 147 00:09:20.480 --> 00:09:22.080 you know what I mean, like, maybe you should focus 148 00:09:22.120 --> 00:09:25.440 on that rather than you know, more. 149 00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:31.679 It's causing tremendous you know again, tremendous internal dissension. By 150 00:09:31.679 --> 00:09:37.159 the way, it's interesting when the the cease fire was 151 00:09:37.240 --> 00:09:42.519 not tremendously popular in Israel. It's not unpopular, but it's 152 00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:45.879 about you know, thirty I think it's like thirty eight 153 00:09:46.759 --> 00:09:49.039 thirty two percent against and the rest that kind of 154 00:09:49.080 --> 00:09:51.919 you know, let's wait and see what happens. But the 155 00:09:51.919 --> 00:09:55.120 real issue for a lot of Israelis is return of 156 00:09:55.159 --> 00:09:58.559 the hostages, and you know, in the cease firing cars 157 00:09:58.600 --> 00:10:03.000 that that leads to that and to them, and it's 158 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:05.000 I you know, I don't want to hazard to guess 159 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:07.480 as to you know, a percentage of the Israelis, but 160 00:10:07.559 --> 00:10:12.279 certainly every everyone that I know is very concerned about 161 00:10:12.840 --> 00:10:17.159 a resolution on the hostage issue and they feel that this, well, 162 00:10:17.200 --> 00:10:19.919 now's the time to you know, hit Iran is kind 163 00:10:19.919 --> 00:10:24.000 of a hand wave and a and a distraction. They 164 00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:26.679 don't you know, there isn't a feeling anymore that Iran 165 00:10:26.799 --> 00:10:30.080 is an imminent threat after the Israeli strike and they're 166 00:10:30.159 --> 00:10:32.919 kind of you know, the empty bomb ass that followed that. 167 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:37.559 I think most people see that now there is the 168 00:10:37.679 --> 00:10:40.840 potential are as we talked about here, of Iran ramping 169 00:10:40.919 --> 00:10:45.120 up to nuclear weapons capability, but that's going to take 170 00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:47.720 some time. And for a lot of people, the most 171 00:10:47.720 --> 00:10:53.000 imminent problem on both sides is attaining a ceasefire in Gaza. 172 00:10:53.440 --> 00:10:57.320 You know, for those who care about the Palestinians, the 173 00:10:58.080 --> 00:11:00.399 the you know, as Mike pointed out, the crisis stare 174 00:11:00.600 --> 00:11:03.159 is is off the chance. I mean as far as 175 00:11:03.159 --> 00:11:08.039 the humanitarian rifries, this lack of food, influx of disease 176 00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:12.720 now and it's kind of dropped off the front pages 177 00:11:12.799 --> 00:11:15.320 of the papers because of what has been happening in Lebanon. 178 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:19.399 And for those who uh, you know, who caress still 179 00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:24.080 about the hostages, then that that there is nowhere near 180 00:11:24.120 --> 00:11:28.360 it resolution at all, and that is that that's becoming 181 00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:30.759 I mean, it continues to be a very emotional issue 182 00:11:30.759 --> 00:11:31.519 within this round. 183 00:11:31.879 --> 00:11:33.799 Yeah, Jason, what do you got? What are you thinking about? 184 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:34.320 To cease far? 185 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:37.360 It was just the part that stuck out for me. 186 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:41.960 Where was what Andy was just saying about the handwave, 187 00:11:42.039 --> 00:11:45.320 the slight of hand on you knows part about focusing 188 00:11:45.320 --> 00:11:48.799 on Iran. I think as as he pointed out that 189 00:11:48.840 --> 00:11:52.960 the Israeli people in the world period are they're quote 190 00:11:53.000 --> 00:11:54.039 unquote hit to the game. 191 00:11:54.279 --> 00:11:55.279 You know, they see it. 192 00:11:55.279 --> 00:11:58.960 It's not you know, I'm not saying that Iran is 193 00:11:59.000 --> 00:12:00.919 not the threat that everyone one believes they are. What 194 00:12:00.960 --> 00:12:05.720 I'm saying is that these little pinpricks of hits that 195 00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:08.600 are going on the back and forth, it's not distracting 196 00:12:08.679 --> 00:12:13.000 from like uh he said, you know, the hostage situation 197 00:12:13.639 --> 00:12:18.159 and the potential for the ceasefire to hold or not 198 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:21.279 hold are greater, and I think the world and Israel 199 00:12:21.360 --> 00:12:23.639 is understanding that. So that's where the focus needs to be. 200 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:25.879 Yeah. 201 00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:29.840 One side note to what we're talking about is i BBC, 202 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:33.720 I'm just looking up here is reported that the rebels 203 00:12:33.720 --> 00:12:37.120 have gotten into Aleppo. So this is all intertwined, right. 204 00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:40.080 So a lot of the support for the regime in 205 00:12:40.120 --> 00:12:43.559 Aleppo was of course, has beloved one and back militias 206 00:12:44.039 --> 00:12:46.360 who decided that they had a better fight to fight, 207 00:12:46.919 --> 00:12:49.799 and that's probably one of the consequences of seeing that 208 00:12:51.480 --> 00:12:53.600 in a good way. I guess the certain extent, except 209 00:12:53.600 --> 00:12:56.679 for these rebels are mostly the honest, I know we're 210 00:12:56.679 --> 00:12:58.759 getting into that, but this is all this is all 211 00:12:58.759 --> 00:12:59.440 connected right now. 212 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:04.080 Yeah, no, that's perfect. Actually, yeah, that's an interesting thing too. 213 00:13:04.120 --> 00:13:06.679 I love to do yeah, more about the rebels, right, 214 00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:11.600 they're all jihatts right, and it's you know, obviously we Syria. 215 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:16.840 The complex maze that Syria is is like something that 216 00:13:16.879 --> 00:13:19.879 somebody should write a book about because there's so many 217 00:13:19.919 --> 00:13:23.759 like world powers, regional powers playing in there. Uh are 218 00:13:23.799 --> 00:13:27.919 we giving jihattis, you know, were we giving Jihati's like 219 00:13:28.559 --> 00:13:33.200 equipment and training and stuff. It's just an insane like 220 00:13:33.679 --> 00:13:37.200 labyrinth of like you couldn't even like you needed the 221 00:13:37.240 --> 00:13:40.879 code ring to understand what's going on in Syria. And 222 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:42.440 like you said, like I want a little bit more 223 00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:44.879 on like the HTS, like those like what are there? 224 00:13:45.000 --> 00:13:50.240 What's what's their deals? 225 00:13:50.360 --> 00:13:53.120 Complicated like the rest of the I mean if you 226 00:13:53.120 --> 00:13:56.080 even look at their Wikipedia page, you try to that's 227 00:13:56.080 --> 00:13:59.039 what I try to do. Different groups, right, and it's 228 00:13:59.120 --> 00:14:03.279 aligned with Turkey and it's uh yeah, I mean ultimately 229 00:14:03.360 --> 00:14:08.080 it's you know, these groups they have interpersonal political issues, squabbles, 230 00:14:08.120 --> 00:14:11.600 But at the end of the day, they're primarily ny 231 00:14:11.799 --> 00:14:16.320 gihattist who are who want to see a lot of 232 00:14:16.320 --> 00:14:19.720 these Shia militia's the hell out of their country. Of course, 233 00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:23.879 are a lot of them are from there, but and 234 00:14:23.919 --> 00:14:26.200 they're they're backed by Turkey, which has been an issue 235 00:14:26.200 --> 00:14:30.120 for US, the US for a while. But uh, you're right, 236 00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:35.399 it is a very complicated association, if you will. 237 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:39.080 Yeah, I think you know, I mean, Syria always makes 238 00:14:39.120 --> 00:14:43.039 me not angry, but yes, a little bit angry when 239 00:14:43.039 --> 00:14:46.039 we talk about it because we squandered so many opportunities 240 00:14:46.080 --> 00:14:49.919 that we the United States, And you guys hopefully know 241 00:14:50.600 --> 00:14:53.279 that I'm not a I'm not a hand ringer on 242 00:14:53.320 --> 00:14:59.039 this stuff, but having having kind of being on the 243 00:14:59.120 --> 00:15:02.320 on the sideline, it's both you know, in Iraq in 244 00:15:02.679 --> 00:15:07.600 twenty sixteen and then at Suck Scent w ashly involved 245 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:12.320 in the problem indirectly since twenty fifteen. You know, remember 246 00:15:13.799 --> 00:15:17.320 when when it all started back in twenty eleven, and 247 00:15:18.360 --> 00:15:20.399 you know, it's fair to say back then, the majority 248 00:15:20.440 --> 00:15:25.240 of the rebel groups, the groups opposing Asade were probably 249 00:15:25.279 --> 00:15:28.200 not your hearty or the majority of people who had 250 00:15:28.559 --> 00:15:32.440 who had you know, seized arms were not your hearty. 251 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:36.759 But then through a combination of factors, complex factors, not 252 00:15:37.120 --> 00:15:39.080 you know, not I'm not saying it's all the United 253 00:15:39.120 --> 00:15:43.480 States's fault, but remember our talk of a red line, 254 00:15:43.720 --> 00:15:50.320 our efforts to arm a Serria militia that work. Honestly, 255 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:54.519 you know, they were well intended, but they had embarrassing results. 256 00:15:54.559 --> 00:16:00.720 If you remember, you know, the testimony to Congress by 257 00:16:01.600 --> 00:16:06.080 someone who's prominent administration now been questioned closely about how 258 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:09.320 many fighters we had raised, and it was pitiful numbers, 259 00:16:09.440 --> 00:16:14.919 right because you know, for we it is it is 260 00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:18.240 a it's one of our failed efforts to buy with 261 00:16:18.399 --> 00:16:22.879 and through. Meanwhile, while we're stumbling along, you've got our 262 00:16:22.960 --> 00:16:27.200 Nuzra Front, who was which was how Keeda affiliated and 263 00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:32.000 ISIS And initially they had an alliance. Somewhere around twenty 264 00:16:32.080 --> 00:16:36.559 fourteen they parted ways violently, right, they were fighting against 265 00:16:36.639 --> 00:16:40.320 each other, the Islamic State against al Nusra Front against asade. 266 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:46.039 At the same time ISIS won. And remember the the 267 00:16:46.559 --> 00:16:50.000 you know, the Islamic State had this propaganda machine that 268 00:16:50.200 --> 00:16:55.679 was unbelievable, and young people opposed, young Muslims opposed to 269 00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:59.080 the Asade regime, and that was you know, that was 270 00:16:59.120 --> 00:17:03.559 their primary motivation. Flopped to the Islamic State, right to it. 271 00:17:03.799 --> 00:17:06.519 And and then of course they I'm not justifying people 272 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:10.240 joined the Islamic State, but the motivation among you know, 273 00:17:10.279 --> 00:17:15.000 certainly among detainees who were questioned, if they'd be believed, 274 00:17:15.240 --> 00:17:20.119 was to oppose the Islamic a Sad regime. And we 275 00:17:20.240 --> 00:17:24.079 lost that, you know, we couldn't we West, We the 276 00:17:24.119 --> 00:17:29.039 United States had nothing really to offer in return when 277 00:17:29.039 --> 00:17:32.839 we're trying to recruit our own, our own rather cat 278 00:17:32.880 --> 00:17:37.839 handed attempts. Now, some government agencies did better than the military, 279 00:17:38.359 --> 00:17:40.759 but we in the military have nothing to be proud of. 280 00:17:40.880 --> 00:17:44.440 Until the SDF came along. Well, the SDF was not 281 00:17:44.559 --> 00:17:48.640 of our making. The SDF were a Kurdish anti ASSAD 282 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:56.519 organization led by a very charismatic dynamed Masloum Maslom right, 283 00:17:58.440 --> 00:18:06.119 and yeah, you know, around twenty fifteen, Special Operations basically 284 00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:11.119 JASOK saw the opportunity to side with with SDF, and 285 00:18:11.160 --> 00:18:18.240 initially it was supporting them with indirect fire and casts, 286 00:18:18.759 --> 00:18:22.880 and then we started to put trainers in there, and 287 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:26.480 that was our success effort in Syria. Back in the SDF, 288 00:18:26.519 --> 00:18:30.039 but it wasn't of our making. And then as the SDF, 289 00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:32.400 you know, as we kind of pulled a lot of 290 00:18:32.400 --> 00:18:35.720 our horses out of Syria, as THEESDF became, you know, 291 00:18:35.920 --> 00:18:39.160 the Turks hated SDF. And this gets to, you know, 292 00:18:39.480 --> 00:18:42.039 there's a method to my manners here. This gets to 293 00:18:42.119 --> 00:18:46.000 why the Turks are now supporting the White es who, 294 00:18:46.039 --> 00:18:49.640 by the way, are al Qaeda affiliated, because they think 295 00:18:49.880 --> 00:18:53.799 any rebel group is better than the Kurds. Right, So 296 00:18:53.880 --> 00:18:58.039 the SDF got kind of whittled away, and frankly, they 297 00:18:58.079 --> 00:19:00.279 were never really after a side. They just that a 298 00:19:00.359 --> 00:19:03.200 carve out an area for them where they could live 299 00:19:03.400 --> 00:19:06.880 in some you know, kind of autonomously in the same 300 00:19:06.920 --> 00:19:11.440 way that the Kurds did in the Rock. But every 301 00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:13.440 time they raised their head about the parapet that the 302 00:19:13.480 --> 00:19:16.000 Turks would pound them. And that is kind of how 303 00:19:16.039 --> 00:19:18.119 we get to where we are now, where we have 304 00:19:18.680 --> 00:19:24.319 an our Kaeda affiliated group going besieging Aleppo or entering 305 00:19:24.359 --> 00:19:27.640 a Leppo with the latest reports or to be believed. 306 00:19:27.680 --> 00:19:31.519 And the sad thing is that these that, yes, the 307 00:19:32.519 --> 00:19:37.039 most capable groups fighting asade right now, tend to be 308 00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:39.400 extremist and be the ones that we in the United 309 00:19:39.400 --> 00:19:43.559 States don't want to see empowered. But the Turks, I mean, 310 00:19:43.640 --> 00:19:46.039 as long as it's not again, as long as it's 311 00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:48.359 not the keyword, they're fine with it. 312 00:19:50.319 --> 00:19:53.319 Yeah. If I can add two quick points to Andy's points, 313 00:19:54.559 --> 00:19:58.400 I would agree certainly with the effort for the regime overthrowing. 314 00:19:58.960 --> 00:20:01.319 And I can't get into the de tails obviously of 315 00:20:01.359 --> 00:20:05.160 the COVID program, but as it's been reported, I would agree. 316 00:20:05.319 --> 00:20:09.720 But Andy had had more success. Uh. The issue really was, 317 00:20:09.720 --> 00:20:13.519 it had potentially so much success that Russia helped the 318 00:20:13.599 --> 00:20:16.680 need to become actively involved. Right, So you know, you 319 00:20:16.759 --> 00:20:19.279 go for in twenty eleven, you know when the when 320 00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:21.880 the whole Civil War really started to what I get 321 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:25.599 that was twenty fourteen, correct me. Experts out there were 322 00:20:25.640 --> 00:20:29.119 wrong when Russia became fully fully involved. And there's only 323 00:20:29.160 --> 00:20:33.440 so much you know, any proxy element, covert or not 324 00:20:34.200 --> 00:20:37.680 can do against you know, not only regime like Hasade, 325 00:20:37.680 --> 00:20:40.519 but uh, you know it's superpower, you know, or rump 326 00:20:40.559 --> 00:20:46.480 superpower in Russia. So uh, and perhaps the mechanism was working, 327 00:20:46.519 --> 00:20:49.480 but the political will and you know what they could 328 00:20:49.720 --> 00:20:52.319 it's reasonable for them to be able to accomplish simply 329 00:20:52.440 --> 00:20:55.440 wasn't there, and that I would just also add Andy's 330 00:20:55.440 --> 00:20:58.960 assessment of the SDF and the and the effort by 331 00:20:59.039 --> 00:21:04.319 Jason primarily supported by others. Uh, that was a great 332 00:21:04.359 --> 00:21:08.440 example of what a proxy force could do. They did 333 00:21:08.640 --> 00:21:12.160 ninety nine percent of the fighting. They were very capable. 334 00:21:12.359 --> 00:21:15.599 We enhanced their capabilities and that led to the defeat 335 00:21:15.640 --> 00:21:20.799 of isis right in Syria and the enduring defeat for 336 00:21:20.839 --> 00:21:23.480 the most part. So it's it's it's it's one of 337 00:21:23.559 --> 00:21:25.839 those things that I think we're getting very good at 338 00:21:25.880 --> 00:21:27.599 doing it. It just has to fit into the right 339 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:33.200 policy dynamics with realistic, you know, determinations of what they 340 00:21:33.200 --> 00:21:36.079 can actually accomplish. But I would I would certainly agree, 341 00:21:36.279 --> 00:21:38.200 and yes, all the stuff with the Turks. That was 342 00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:40.400 one of the reasons why we had such a tumultuous 343 00:21:40.920 --> 00:21:44.160 time in the Pentagon when I was there with the 344 00:21:44.240 --> 00:21:48.720 STF and being told to leave a couple of times, 345 00:21:48.920 --> 00:21:50.960 which we never have We're still there. 346 00:21:52.400 --> 00:21:55.480 I'm curious ahead now. 347 00:21:55.519 --> 00:21:59.720 I'm just curious as to what Russia's commitment to this 348 00:21:59.720 --> 00:22:03.599 book continue to be given what's happening in Ukraine. Obviously 349 00:22:03.640 --> 00:22:08.880 they have the numbers to do it, but I suppose 350 00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:12.200 backtracking that it would depend on the progress or lack 351 00:22:12.240 --> 00:22:15.599 of thereof that's being made in Syria. But maybe one 352 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:18.000 of you two would be able to answer your thoughts 353 00:22:18.039 --> 00:22:25.240 on how long their commitment will last in Syria and 354 00:22:25.400 --> 00:22:25.880 the ES. 355 00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:34.599 I thank you, I mean they yeah, difficult to say. 356 00:22:34.680 --> 00:22:38.359 It's a great question, Jason, I mean the to them, 357 00:22:40.039 --> 00:22:43.240 to them, SERIAU is a success story and it used 358 00:22:43.279 --> 00:22:47.880 to be. You know, we talk about we talk about 359 00:22:48.160 --> 00:22:50.799 using you know, by with and through using a relatively 360 00:22:50.799 --> 00:22:54.720 small amount of forces to achieve strategic games. And I 361 00:22:54.759 --> 00:22:56.079 hate to say it, but that's kind of what the 362 00:22:56.119 --> 00:22:58.680 Russians have done in Syria. I mean they at a 363 00:22:58.680 --> 00:23:02.319 cost to them, Yes, they but but remember even when 364 00:23:02.359 --> 00:23:05.759 we even when we pummeled them back in when was 365 00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:09.880 that was it twenty fifty No, it was twenty seventeen, right, 366 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:12.319 we killed bi like. 367 00:23:12.720 --> 00:23:13.960 All the major wagoner guys. 368 00:23:14.039 --> 00:23:16.880 Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, yeah. 369 00:23:17.119 --> 00:23:19.359 I think that's what everybody concentrates on. 370 00:23:19.720 --> 00:23:23.039 That's what I think everybody, the average person like me thinks, oh, 371 00:23:23.200 --> 00:23:25.400 you know, we kicked their ass over. 372 00:23:25.240 --> 00:23:28.759 There, you know, but they continued because remember the guys 373 00:23:28.759 --> 00:23:32.759 they lost were guys that they could disassociate themselves with guys. 374 00:23:32.759 --> 00:23:37.079 They didn't have to answer the families about right, and 375 00:23:37.079 --> 00:23:39.799 and that's and so I mean, they've got mainstream Russian 376 00:23:39.839 --> 00:23:44.920 forces there too, and they certainly stepped down their mainstream effort, 377 00:23:45.880 --> 00:23:49.240 but they continue to you know, they some would argue 378 00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:53.559 they didn't need to maintain a large force there because 379 00:23:53.559 --> 00:23:57.680 they have tremendous influence and they continue to achieve their 380 00:23:57.680 --> 00:24:03.400 strategic ambitions. And and the last thing, the fact that 381 00:24:03.400 --> 00:24:07.960 that I would say is that remember they also had 382 00:24:08.400 --> 00:24:11.920 help from Iran, whether they you know, they've had bumpy 383 00:24:11.960 --> 00:24:15.200 relationship with the ran but in Syria they've generally gone 384 00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:18.920 along pretty well, and the Iranians have done the front 385 00:24:18.920 --> 00:24:22.559 of the actual fighting fighting. I mean again, you know, 386 00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:26.279 the Russian military has plenty of advisors there, but the 387 00:24:26.319 --> 00:24:29.279 frontline troops the Russians are using in the past at 388 00:24:29.359 --> 00:24:34.680 least have generally been contractors. So they're achieving. Yeah, and look, 389 00:24:34.680 --> 00:24:38.079 they they've got a Mediterranean port, They've got tremendous I mean, 390 00:24:38.079 --> 00:24:40.720 if you talk to people who've been journalists, who've been 391 00:24:41.640 --> 00:24:45.759 you know, into the regime held Syria, you hear Russian 392 00:24:45.839 --> 00:24:50.319 voices everywhere. You even have Russian tourists going to the Mediterranean. Uh, 393 00:24:50.759 --> 00:24:53.519 you know resorts there. I mean it is heavily under 394 00:24:53.559 --> 00:24:54.880 Russian influence. 395 00:24:56.519 --> 00:24:59.759 That's right. I the strategic games is all they care about, right. 396 00:25:00.119 --> 00:25:03.880 Hundred thousand civilians dead doesn't matter the Wagner guys that 397 00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:05.319 were killed. I mean we can see how much they 398 00:25:05.359 --> 00:25:09.039 care about throopsage and uh in ukrain now, so that 399 00:25:09.119 --> 00:25:13.640 those things are inconsequential really to the Russian you know, 400 00:25:14.200 --> 00:25:17.400 thought process. So they think I think nys Andy said 401 00:25:17.440 --> 00:25:20.559