Speaker 1: Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to
Speaker 1: you today about a way that you can help support
Speaker 1: the podcast if you're not already to support the channel
Speaker 1: is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon
Speaker 1: memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when
Speaker 1: you sign up, you get access to all of our
Speaker 1: episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean,
Speaker 1: we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers,
Speaker 1: but this is the biggest and best way that you
Speaker 1: can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to,
Speaker 1: and we really appreciate that, So go and check us
Speaker 1: out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, welcome to another episode of eyes On.
Speaker 2: I'm not doing Andy's accent. We have Andy Milliber and
Speaker 2: Jason Lyons, Mick Maulroy. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody listening a
Speaker 2: lot and watching. I hope yours is good. A lot
Speaker 2: going on from last week Ceasefire and with Israel Lebanon
Speaker 2: or see Fire with Israel and has below. Really it's
Speaker 2: sixty days. It's going to come right into about five
Speaker 2: or six days into President elect Trump's new term. So
Speaker 2: what are your guys' thoughts on that? And is there
Speaker 2: a chance of a cease firing gods or two? I'd
Speaker 2: like to touch on that after Who wants to take
Speaker 2: it first? Rating, guys, I.
Speaker 3: Can start if you want, go for me. I mean,
Speaker 3: obviously it's a good thing. Whenever you get a sea
Speaker 3: star anywhere, right, that means the killing feeling is halted
Speaker 3: and there's an opportunity to potentially to end it diplomatically,
Speaker 3: right start with. Obviously, what's really going to matter to
Speaker 3: Israel's whether they can get their sixty thousand display citizens
Speaker 3: back to their homes in northern Israel and whether hes
Speaker 3: Bela adheres to the agreement, which of course was required
Speaker 3: under the seventeen oh one unscarre. But they were weren't
Speaker 3: complying obviously, So it's there's a lot to be seen.
Speaker 3: But the first step is there. They've they've started. There's
Speaker 3: there's skirmishes and both sides accusing the other of breaking it,
Speaker 3: but it does seem to beholding, and I think that's important.
Speaker 3: What help, what hopefully will happen now is what should
Speaker 3: have been the case before, which is Hesbla withdraws the
Speaker 3: Tawny River, the laugh, the Lebanese Armed Forces UH gets
Speaker 3: down into southern Lebanon, insures that all their positions, you know,
Speaker 3: their armaments, their arsenals and them aren't there anymore. And
Speaker 3: that could give Israel confidence to be able to allow
Speaker 3: their citizens to return. And the second part, although I
Speaker 3: think it was fair to say most people have given
Speaker 3: up on the seasfire in Gaza, I think this puts
Speaker 3: a moss in the position where they're more likely to
Speaker 3: accept something they wouldn't have accepted a four Why because
Speaker 3: they're isolated more obviously hesplaws about out at least for now.
Speaker 3: They realized that there's an incoming Trump administration who could
Speaker 3: be more supportive even than the Biden administration of Prime
Speaker 3: Minister men Yahoo's efforts, and I think they can see
Speaker 3: the writing on the wall when it comes to that.
Speaker 3: So hopefully that does translate primarily to the ceasefire and
Speaker 3: the release of all hostages, and then of course a
Speaker 3: dramatic increase in humanitarian aid which is down to I
Speaker 3: think around thirty trucks a day, which is just not
Speaker 3: sustainable for human life. So for all those reasons, I
Speaker 3: do think you know a lot of people said it
Speaker 3: wasn't going to happen in Lebanon. So hats off to
Speaker 3: the negotiators, Amos Hookstein and Brett and all the guys
Speaker 3: that work so hard on that. They deserve credit because
Speaker 3: they certainly got a lot of criticism for not getting
Speaker 3: it done. So that's one thing, and then I think
Speaker 3: that could could actually help when it comes to the
Speaker 3: negotiations for god Andy, Yeah, I think no.
Speaker 4: I mean, I totally agree with Meg that it's the
Speaker 4: a it's a tremendous job by the negotiators because frankly,
Speaker 4: they didn't have a lot on that side. You know,
Speaker 4: there wasn't like there was a strong effort from the
Speaker 4: Israeli team to support them. I mean, we had Inet
Speaker 4: wilthon the other day, and remember, you know, I just
Speaker 4: want to remind listeners that although some people seem to
Speaker 4: think that what she was saying was extreme, what she
Speaker 4: was saying kind of represents mainstream Israeli thought and in
Speaker 4: many ways, I mean, she was recommended by many people
Speaker 4: that I know in Israel, and so what she said
Speaker 4: on Lebanon was, hey, listen, our jobs to go in
Speaker 4: there and mow the grass whenever this happens, and it's
Speaker 4: up to everyone else to fix it, right, So that
Speaker 4: kind of attitude was prevalent to you know, facing the
Speaker 4: negotiation team. So they did, I thought, a tremendous job.
Speaker 4: There's an uphill struggle and you know, good on them,
Speaker 4: and the killing has stopped. As Mick points out, some
Speaker 4: three to four thousand Lebanese, you know, whether civilians or
Speaker 4: I mean obviously mostly civilians. I'm dead, and and families
Speaker 4: already moving back into southern Lebanon. The butt is this
Speaker 4: and it's there's but you know, the Israeli is obviously
Speaker 4: hearing the obstacle to this and the Litani River, yes,
Speaker 4: was bestified by seventeen or one resolution. It's a blated
Speaker 4: effort to enforce that. But some might argue that it's
Speaker 4: almost irrelevant now for a couple of reasons. One is
Speaker 4: the you know, the although his bolla is on the ropes,
Speaker 4: they certainly have or capable of getting more missiles and
Speaker 4: rockets that range further than the Litani River, you know,
Speaker 4: and a lot of their sites are in the Bakar
Speaker 4: Valley all around bay Rout for the longer range missile system,
Speaker 4: so that that wasn't the greatest threat, and The other
Speaker 4: part is the part of seventeen o one. We've talked
Speaker 4: about this before. Seventeen oh one was don't get me wrong,
Speaker 4: and you know, back when it was imposed back in
Speaker 4: seventeen oh six, it was the only possible solution. But
Speaker 4: the point six right, what's that six?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was not for the two thousand and six war.
Speaker 4: But what is perhaps not recognized is the fact that
Speaker 4: a lot of most of his ballast fighters are from
Speaker 4: that area, are from salth I mean, they're not imports.
Speaker 4: They lived there, they live in the villages, So it
Speaker 4: doesn't make sense they pulled with militia back. Now, if
Speaker 4: there is a concerted effort to disarm people, you know,
Speaker 4: conducted by the Laugh and Uniform, backed by Uniform, backed
Speaker 4: by the international community, to disarm militias south of the
Speaker 4: Tiny River, then you know, then then it'll.
Speaker 3: Have some teeth.
Speaker 4: But that is a really that's a hard task. I mean,
Speaker 4: at least before the the is really offensive his followers
Speaker 4: in any way stronger than the Laugh as far as
Speaker 4: weapons inventory and as far as kind of far I
Speaker 4: don't want to say moral weight within that community, but
Speaker 4: that but subtly credibility within that community and that is
Speaker 4: the problem. And so I'd like to see a concerted
Speaker 4: effort to bolster the laugh both morally and and you know,
Speaker 4: with trainers with weapons, to to get them back in
Speaker 4: the game. I don't know, and I don't know you know, Mignosis,
Speaker 4: but I mean the laugh suddenly, the laugh is that
Speaker 4: actually been a success story in many ways since two
Speaker 4: thousand and six.
Speaker 3: It is.
Speaker 4: It is cross denominational h and and has held the
Speaker 4: line pretty well as far as remaining that way. And
Speaker 4: the Special Operations Forces are very good indeed, so there
Speaker 4: is something to build on that they're dismissed and talked
Speaker 4: about contemptuously by the by the Israelis. But part of
Speaker 4: their problem is being lack of political back backing, both
Speaker 4: internationally and within the country itself. So that has to change.
Speaker 4: And if there is that effort, and if there are
Speaker 4: you know, international they're going to need trainers, but they're
Speaker 4: going to need lots of weapons and support. And given that,
Speaker 4: then maybe this this piece, uh, this cease fire has
Speaker 4: some legs on it. A commitment.
Speaker 2: I'm saying, yeah, and just for every by laugh is
Speaker 2: Lebanese Armed Forces NAT and YAHOO. And some of his
Speaker 2: comments said like now is the time to focus on
Speaker 2: Iran Ah And I mean, you know, I'm gonna editorialize
Speaker 2: maybe you should focus on cease firing, hot and Gaza,
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, like, maybe you should focus
Speaker 2: on that rather than you know, more.
Speaker 4: It's causing tremendous you know again, tremendous internal dissension. By
Speaker 4: the way, it's interesting when the the cease fire was
Speaker 4: not tremendously popular in Israel. It's not unpopular, but it's
Speaker 4: about you know, thirty I think it's like thirty eight
Speaker 4: thirty two percent against and the rest that kind of
Speaker 4: you know, let's wait and see what happens. But the
Speaker 4: real issue for a lot of Israelis is return of
Speaker 4: the hostages, and you know, in the cease firing cars
Speaker 4: that that leads to that and to them, and it's
Speaker 4: I you know, I don't want to hazard to guess
Speaker 4: as to you know, a percentage of the Israelis, but
Speaker 4: certainly every everyone that I know is very concerned about
Speaker 4: a resolution on the hostage issue and they feel that this, well,
Speaker 4: now's the time to you know, hit Iran is kind
Speaker 4: of a hand wave and a and a distraction. They
Speaker 4: don't you know, there isn't a feeling anymore that Iran
Speaker 4: is an imminent threat after the Israeli strike and they're
Speaker 4: kind of you know, the empty bomb ass that followed that.
Speaker 4: I think most people see that now there is the
Speaker 4: potential are as we talked about here, of Iran ramping
Speaker 4: up to nuclear weapons capability, but that's going to take
Speaker 4: some time. And for a lot of people, the most
Speaker 4: imminent problem on both sides is attaining a ceasefire in Gaza.
Speaker 4: You know, for those who care about the Palestinians, the
Speaker 4: the you know, as Mike pointed out, the crisis stare
Speaker 4: is is off the chance. I mean as far as
Speaker 4: the humanitarian rifries, this lack of food, influx of disease
Speaker 4: now and it's kind of dropped off the front pages
Speaker 4: of the papers because of what has been happening in Lebanon.
Speaker 4: And for those who uh, you know, who caress still
Speaker 4: about the hostages, then that that there is nowhere near
Speaker 4: it resolution at all, and that is that that's becoming
Speaker 4: I mean, it continues to be a very emotional issue
Speaker 4: within this round.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jason, what do you got? What are you thinking about?
Speaker 2: To cease far?
Speaker 5: It was just the part that stuck out for me.
Speaker 5: Where was what Andy was just saying about the handwave,
Speaker 5: the slight of hand on you knows part about focusing
Speaker 5: on Iran. I think as as he pointed out that
Speaker 5: the Israeli people in the world period are they're quote
Speaker 5: unquote hit to the game.
Speaker 3: You know, they see it.
Speaker 5: It's not you know, I'm not saying that Iran is
Speaker 5: not the threat that everyone one believes they are. What
Speaker 5: I'm saying is that these little pinpricks of hits that
Speaker 5: are going on the back and forth, it's not distracting
Speaker 5: from like uh he said, you know, the hostage situation
Speaker 5: and the potential for the ceasefire to hold or not
Speaker 5: hold are greater, and I think the world and Israel
Speaker 5: is understanding that. So that's where the focus needs to be.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: One side note to what we're talking about is i BBC,
Speaker 3: I'm just looking up here is reported that the rebels
Speaker 3: have gotten into Aleppo. So this is all intertwined, right.
Speaker 3: So a lot of the support for the regime in
Speaker 3: Aleppo was of course, has beloved one and back militias
Speaker 3: who decided that they had a better fight to fight,
Speaker 3: and that's probably one of the consequences of seeing that
Speaker 3: in a good way. I guess the certain extent, except
Speaker 3: for these rebels are mostly the honest, I know we're
Speaker 3: getting into that, but this is all this is all
Speaker 3: connected right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's perfect. Actually, yeah, that's an interesting thing too.
Speaker 2: I love to do yeah, more about the rebels, right,
Speaker 2: they're all jihatts right, and it's you know, obviously we Syria.
Speaker 2: The complex maze that Syria is is like something that
Speaker 2: somebody should write a book about because there's so many
Speaker 2: like world powers, regional powers playing in there. Uh are
Speaker 2: we giving jihattis, you know, were we giving Jihati's like
Speaker 2: equipment and training and stuff. It's just an insane like
Speaker 2: labyrinth of like you couldn't even like you needed the
Speaker 2: code ring to understand what's going on in Syria. And
Speaker 2: like you said, like I want a little bit more
Speaker 2: on like the HTS, like those like what are there?
Speaker 2: What's what's their deals?
Speaker 3: Complicated like the rest of the I mean if you
Speaker 3: even look at their Wikipedia page, you try to that's
Speaker 3: what I try to do. Different groups, right, and it's
Speaker 3: aligned with Turkey and it's uh yeah, I mean ultimately
Speaker 3: it's you know, these groups they have interpersonal political issues, squabbles,
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, they're primarily ny
Speaker 3: gihattist who are who want to see a lot of
Speaker 3: these Shia militia's the hell out of their country. Of course,
Speaker 3: are a lot of them are from there, but and
Speaker 3: they're they're backed by Turkey, which has been an issue
Speaker 3: for US, the US for a while. But uh, you're right,
Speaker 3: it is a very complicated association, if you will.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know, I mean, Syria always makes
Speaker 4: me not angry, but yes, a little bit angry when
Speaker 4: we talk about it because we squandered so many opportunities
Speaker 4: that we the United States, And you guys hopefully know
Speaker 4: that I'm not a I'm not a hand ringer on
Speaker 4: this stuff, but having having kind of being on the
Speaker 4: on the sideline, it's both you know, in Iraq in
Speaker 4: twenty sixteen and then at Suck Scent w ashly involved
Speaker 4: in the problem indirectly since twenty fifteen. You know, remember
Speaker 4: when when it all started back in twenty eleven, and
Speaker 4: you know, it's fair to say back then, the majority
Speaker 4: of the rebel groups, the groups opposing Asade were probably
Speaker 4: not your hearty or the majority of people who had
Speaker 4: who had you know, seized arms were not your hearty.
Speaker 4: But then through a combination of factors, complex factors, not
Speaker 4: you know, not I'm not saying it's all the United
Speaker 4: States's fault, but remember our talk of a red line,
Speaker 4: our efforts to arm a Serria militia that work. Honestly,
Speaker 4: you know, they were well intended, but they had embarrassing results.
Speaker 4: If you remember, you know, the testimony to Congress by
Speaker 4: someone who's prominent administration now been questioned closely about how
Speaker 4: many fighters we had raised, and it was pitiful numbers,
Speaker 4: right because you know, for we it is it is
Speaker 4: a it's one of our failed efforts to buy with
Speaker 4: and through. Meanwhile, while we're stumbling along, you've got our
Speaker 4: Nuzra Front, who was which was how Keeda affiliated and
Speaker 4: ISIS And initially they had an alliance. Somewhere around twenty
Speaker 4: fourteen they parted ways violently, right, they were fighting against
Speaker 4: each other, the Islamic State against al Nusra Front against asade.
Speaker 4: At the same time ISIS won. And remember the the
Speaker 4: you know, the Islamic State had this propaganda machine that
Speaker 4: was unbelievable, and young people opposed, young Muslims opposed to
Speaker 4: the Asade regime, and that was you know, that was
Speaker 4: their primary motivation. Flopped to the Islamic State, right to it.
Speaker 4: And and then of course they I'm not justifying people
Speaker 4: joined the Islamic State, but the motivation among you know,
Speaker 4: certainly among detainees who were questioned, if they'd be believed,
Speaker 4: was to oppose the Islamic a Sad regime. And we
Speaker 4: lost that, you know, we couldn't we West, We the
Speaker 4: United States had nothing really to offer in return when
Speaker 4: we're trying to recruit our own, our own rather cat
Speaker 4: handed attempts. Now, some government agencies did better than the military,
Speaker 4: but we in the military have nothing to be proud of.
Speaker 4: Until the SDF came along. Well, the SDF was not
Speaker 4: of our making. The SDF were a Kurdish anti ASSAD
Speaker 4: organization led by a very charismatic dynamed Masloum Maslom right,
Speaker 4: and yeah, you know, around twenty fifteen, Special Operations basically
Speaker 4: JASOK saw the opportunity to side with with SDF, and
Speaker 4: initially it was supporting them with indirect fire and casts,
Speaker 4: and then we started to put trainers in there, and
Speaker 4: that was our success effort in Syria. Back in the SDF,
Speaker 4: but it wasn't of our making. And then as the SDF,
Speaker 4: you know, as we kind of pulled a lot of
Speaker 4: our horses out of Syria, as THEESDF became, you know,
Speaker 4: the Turks hated SDF. And this gets to, you know,
Speaker 4: there's a method to my manners here. This gets to
Speaker 4: why the Turks are now supporting the White es who,
Speaker 4: by the way, are al Qaeda affiliated, because they think
Speaker 4: any rebel group is better than the Kurds. Right, So
Speaker 4: the SDF got kind of whittled away, and frankly, they
Speaker 4: were never really after a side. They just that a
Speaker 4: carve out an area for them where they could live
Speaker 4: in some you know, kind of autonomously in the same
Speaker 4: way that the Kurds did in the Rock. But every
Speaker 4: time they raised their head about the parapet that the
Speaker 4: Turks would pound them. And that is kind of how
Speaker 4: we get to where we are now, where we have
Speaker 4: an our Kaeda affiliated group going besieging Aleppo or entering
Speaker 4: a Leppo with the latest reports or to be believed.
Speaker 4: And the sad thing is that these that, yes, the
Speaker 4: most capable groups fighting asade right now, tend to be
Speaker 4: extremist and be the ones that we in the United
Speaker 4: States don't want to see empowered. But the Turks, I mean,
Speaker 4: as long as it's not again, as long as it's
Speaker 4: not the keyword, they're fine with it.
Speaker 3: Yeah. If I can add two quick points to Andy's points,
Speaker 3: I would agree certainly with the effort for the regime overthrowing.
Speaker 3: And I can't get into the de tails obviously of
Speaker 3: the COVID program, but as it's been reported, I would agree.
Speaker 3: But Andy had had more success. Uh. The issue really was,
Speaker 3: it had potentially so much success that Russia helped the
Speaker 3: need to become actively involved. Right, So you know, you
Speaker 3: go for in twenty eleven, you know when the when
Speaker 3: the whole Civil War really started to what I get
Speaker 3: that was twenty fourteen, correct me. Experts out there were
Speaker 3: wrong when Russia became fully fully involved. And there's only
Speaker 3: so much you know, any proxy element, covert or not
Speaker 3: can do against you know, not only regime like Hasade,
Speaker 3: but uh, you know it's superpower, you know, or rump
Speaker 3: superpower in Russia. So uh, and perhaps the mechanism was working,
Speaker 3: but the political will and you know what they could
Speaker 3: it's reasonable for them to be able to accomplish simply
Speaker 3: wasn't there, and that I would just also add Andy's
Speaker 3: assessment of the SDF and the and the effort by
Speaker 3: Jason primarily supported by others. Uh, that was a great
Speaker 3: example of what a proxy force could do. They did
Speaker 3: ninety nine percent of the fighting. They were very capable.
Speaker 3: We enhanced their capabilities and that led to the defeat
Speaker 3: of isis right in Syria and the enduring defeat for
Speaker 3: the most part. So it's it's it's it's one of
Speaker 3: those things that I think we're getting very good at
Speaker 3: doing it. It just has to fit into the right
Speaker 3: policy dynamics with realistic, you know, determinations of what they
Speaker 3: can actually accomplish. But I would I would certainly agree,
Speaker 3: and yes, all the stuff with the Turks. That was
Speaker 3: one of the reasons why we had such a tumultuous
Speaker 3: time in the Pentagon when I was there with the
Speaker 3: STF and being told to leave a couple of times,
Speaker 3: which we never have We're still there.
Speaker 4: I'm curious ahead now.
Speaker 5: I'm just curious as to what Russia's commitment to this
Speaker 5: book continue to be given what's happening in Ukraine. Obviously
Speaker 5: they have the numbers to do it, but I suppose
Speaker 5: backtracking that it would depend on the progress or lack
Speaker 5: of thereof that's being made in Syria. But maybe one
Speaker 5: of you two would be able to answer your thoughts
Speaker 5: on how long their commitment will last in Syria and
Speaker 5: the ES.
Speaker 4: I thank you, I mean they yeah, difficult to say.
Speaker 4: It's a great question, Jason, I mean the to them,
Speaker 4: to them, SERIAU is a success story and it used
Speaker 4: to be. You know, we talk about we talk about
Speaker 4: using you know, by with and through using a relatively
Speaker 4: small amount of forces to achieve strategic games. And I
Speaker 4: hate to say it, but that's kind of what the
Speaker 4: Russians have done in Syria. I mean they at a
Speaker 4: cost to them, Yes, they but but remember even when
Speaker 4: we even when we pummeled them back in when was
Speaker 4: that was it twenty fifty No, it was twenty seventeen, right,
Speaker 4: we killed bi like.
Speaker 2: All the major wagoner guys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4: I think that's what everybody concentrates on.
Speaker 5: That's what I think everybody, the average person like me thinks, oh,
Speaker 5: you know, we kicked their ass over.
Speaker 4: There, you know, but they continued because remember the guys
Speaker 4: they lost were guys that they could disassociate themselves with guys.
Speaker 4: They didn't have to answer the families about right, and
Speaker 4: and that's and so I mean, they've got mainstream Russian
Speaker 4: forces there too, and they certainly stepped down their mainstream effort,
Speaker 4: but they continue to you know, they some would argue
Speaker 4: they didn't need to maintain a large force there because
Speaker 4: they have tremendous influence and they continue to achieve their
Speaker 4: strategic ambitions. And and the last thing, the fact that
Speaker 4: that I would say is that remember they also had
Speaker 4: help from Iran, whether they you know, they've had bumpy
Speaker 4: relationship with the ran but in Syria they've generally gone
Speaker 4: along pretty well, and the Iranians have done the front
Speaker 4: of the actual fighting fighting. I mean again, you know,
Speaker 4: the Russian military has plenty of advisors there, but the
Speaker 4: frontline troops the Russians are using in the past at
Speaker 4: least have generally been contractors. So they're achieving. Yeah, and look,
Speaker 4: they they've got a Mediterranean port, They've got tremendous I mean,
Speaker 4: if you talk to people who've been journalists, who've been
Speaker 4: you know, into the regime held Syria, you hear Russian
Speaker 4: voices everywhere. You even have Russian tourists going to the Mediterranean. Uh,
Speaker 4: you know resorts there. I mean it is heavily under
Speaker 4: Russian influence.
Speaker 3: That's right. I the strategic games is all they care about, right.
Speaker 3: Hundred thousand civilians dead doesn't matter the Wagner guys that
Speaker 3: were killed. I mean we can see how much they
Speaker 3: care about throopsage and uh in ukrain now, so that
Speaker 3: those things are inconsequential really to the Russian you know,
Speaker 3: thought process. So they think I think nys Andy said
Speaker 3: that they've been successful. That's I don't. I don't see
Speaker 3: them leaving any time.
Speaker 4: Mhm, yeah, I just was.
Speaker 5: It was I was curious because, like as I said,
Speaker 5: average guy like me, average citizen is probably like holy ship,
Speaker 5: Russia is still there like they they just hadn't you know,
Speaker 5: didn't even think about it until this came up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so talking about Russia.
Speaker 4: Uh yeah started up by the way. But you know
Speaker 4: across across Africa too, I mean look at the pants
Speaker 4: the hell region and in Africa. I mean, the Wagner
Speaker 4: group is still going strong now carrying out Russian Russian
Speaker 4: strategic games. The French, the French have no influence in
Speaker 4: Molly at all. Now, I mean it is the It
Speaker 4: is basically Russians running this show.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Uh. Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor
Speaker 2: and the retired lieutenant general, to be the Special Envoy
Speaker 2: right Ukraine Russia Envoy, So he's going to be taking
Speaker 2: part most likely in the negotiations in terms of what
Speaker 2: like a peace dealer, cease fire deal would look like,
Speaker 2: what do you got to make? You mentioned this?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 2: What do you think about the plan? Where do you
Speaker 2: think it goes from here? Is this guy a good pick?
Speaker 2: Give me everything everything he got?
Speaker 3: I do think he's Yeah, I do think he's a
Speaker 3: good pick. I mean he's extraordinarily experienced. He was the
Speaker 3: National Security Advisor in addition to being a retired three star.
Speaker 3: But I think he's like eighty so God bless him.
Speaker 3: You know. I tend to be at the BFWs exclusively
Speaker 3: in white. But so some of the points that I
Speaker 3: point out from General Kellogg, he he was actually critical
Speaker 3: of not supplying more weapons to Ukraine before the invasion,
Speaker 3: and that the decisions to provide weapons to Ukraine after
Speaker 3: which should have came faster, with less deliberation and certainly
Speaker 3: more effect on the battle. Now. Part of that might
Speaker 3: be I'm just criticizing the other guy kind of thing,
Speaker 3: but I do think you know, if he agrees with that,
Speaker 3: then his overall posture should be that he wants the
Speaker 3: Ukrainians to win, which is a good, good thing. Now
Speaker 3: the question is, how is this actually going to work.
Speaker 3: I looked in specifically into what it seems like they're proposing. Yes,
Speaker 3: it's a freeze in the conflict. Yes, there'll be some
Speaker 3: kind of demilitarized zone with NATO troops who my knowledge
Speaker 3: haven't signed on NATO troops non us to do it.
Speaker 3: But from my understanding, it won't require that Ukraine, if
Speaker 3: they agree with it, of course, they have to agree
Speaker 3: give up on their claim to their own sovereign territory.
Speaker 3: So it isn't a concession of these you know, twenty
Speaker 3: percent of Ukraine. It is. It is a stop in
Speaker 3: the fighting, and I potentially an agreement not to try
Speaker 3: to militarily take it back during the terms of whatever
Speaker 3: the ceasefires. And then of course they can't join NATO
Speaker 3: until you know, a specified time in the future. But
Speaker 3: the question really comes down to yes, okay, that's potentially,
Speaker 3: and then there there will be something called a levee
Speaker 3: on There'll be some sanctioned relief for Russia, but there'll
Speaker 3: be a levee on their foreign assets that pays for
Speaker 3: the reconstruction. I understand. So, you know, I guess I'm
Speaker 3: not advocating for that plan, but I think we should
Speaker 3: look at all the details because oftentimes it gets short
Speaker 3: stripped when it comes to the explanation in the media
Speaker 3: of what it what it entails. Others that are not
Speaker 3: associated with the incoming transition team have said, you know,
Speaker 3: let's take a look at it, because ultimately this is
Speaker 3: this is up to Ukraine and obviously Russia. The other
Speaker 3: part of this equation is how many people believe Russia
Speaker 3: would adhere to this. I mean, why did they launch
Speaker 3: an invasion just to you know, to end up with
Speaker 3: this salemate with you know, a lot of the region
Speaker 3: where they have simply not valuable terrain. So and then
Speaker 3: of course, how many times have you Russia broken agreements
Speaker 3: with Ukraine? So how valid is the agreement when you
Speaker 3: have somebody like Russia on one signment and their word.
Speaker 3: So there's a lot going into this. But I do think, well,
Speaker 3: and I do I do think he's a good selection.
Speaker 3: Certainly his experienced, he's he's going in this with decades
Speaker 3: and decades of experience and somebody who, by all statements
Speaker 3: I've seen, is is supportive of our partner in Ukraine,
Speaker 3: you know, being successful in the lockdown.
Speaker 2: Mister Milburn, Colonel Melbourne, apologies.
Speaker 4: No, I agree one hundred percent with that. Yeah, we
Speaker 4: I mean no, no negotiation, no, I mean no ceasefire agreement.
Speaker 4: Whatever we're calling it is going to be perfect. It's
Speaker 4: not from the point of view of anyone who supports Ukraine.
Speaker 4: But on the other hand, you know, as I said
Speaker 4: here before, I mean, Ukraine cannot continue losing the number
Speaker 4: of people that they're losing the best part of their population.
Speaker 4: And it's I think, you know, I think if you
Speaker 4: look at polls, even the majority of Ukrainians now are
Speaker 4: are realizing that and saying that some kind of negotiated
Speaker 4: they would accept some kind of negotiated ceasefire, even if
Speaker 4: it meant seeding some territory to rush over the time being.
Speaker 4: But I would I hope that there are two parts
Speaker 4: to this, Okay, that one is the moratorium on joining
Speaker 4: NATO makes me very uncomfortable. I feel like that's an
Speaker 4: overconcession right, you know what I mean, Russia wants to
Speaker 4: end the war too. We don't have to trip over
Speaker 4: ourselves and saying oh here, and by the way, you
Speaker 4: know we I think we should hold that off as
Speaker 4: a in the wings, say hey, we're going to look
Speaker 4: at this, see how this cease file works out, all right,
Speaker 4: before we make any commitment on not bringing Ukraine into NATO,
Speaker 4: because Russia, if you start, you know, if anything starts happening,
Speaker 4: then we're going to rush to bring Ukraine into NATO.
Speaker 4: We need to have that there as a kind of
Speaker 4: a clause to make sure Putin does it here to
Speaker 4: this because he's terrified of that happening. Number two is
Speaker 4: I hate to see any moratorium on providing weapons to Ukraine.
Speaker 4: All right. We should not agree to that. We should say, hey,
Speaker 4: you shouldn't worry about what we're providing Ukraine as long
Speaker 4: as you adhere to the rules of you know, this ceasefire.
Speaker 4: And then we should flood the Ukrainians with weapons to
Speaker 4: ensure that the ceasefire holds right. And if the Ukrainians
Speaker 4: don't want to violate the seas fire, well there's you know,
Speaker 4: there's going to be there's going to be penalties obviously
Speaker 4: for them. But the point is again to mixed point.
Speaker 4: You know, Putin is still in control in Russian Putin
Speaker 4: is not someone you can negotiate with. He's not a man.
Speaker 4: As I think one of our own presidents said that
Speaker 4: you can come to a deal with at all unless
Speaker 4: he is afraid of the consequences of it going wrong.
Speaker 4: And so we need to hold those consequences close to
Speaker 4: our chest. With a stronger country by far, you know,
Speaker 4: we can't. We've got to be wary of building Russia
Speaker 4: up into this you know, this this bogey man and
Speaker 4: with you know, talks of new non nuclear kinetic weapons
Speaker 4: blah blah blah. Remember three years ago we were everyone
Speaker 4: was in think tank land was pissing themselves at the
Speaker 4: thought of the Russian army, you know, facing the Russian army,
Speaker 4: and we find that the Russian army is a peeper tiger.
Speaker 4: They can't even invade Ukraine, for Christ's think a country
Speaker 4: one further of their size, and they've been stemied. They're losing,
Speaker 4: as we said on this show, a thousand men a day,
Speaker 4: and you can look that up and you know, a
Speaker 4: thousand to include casualties a day. To put that in
Speaker 4: some kind of context, the Allies during the breakout from Normandy.
Speaker 4: We're taking that many casualties with an army many times
Speaker 4: the size of the Russian army and Ukraine, right, I mean,
Speaker 4: it's the phenomenal casualties. So Russia may not consider itself
Speaker 4: on the ropes. That may, but at the same time
Speaker 4: there's strong reasons for them to want to end this
Speaker 4: conflict too, and rather than trip over ourselves by giving
Speaker 4: them concessions, we need to repair that in mind as
Speaker 4: we go into this. But yes, absolutely I agree with Mick.
Speaker 4: You know, there's a solid guy, at least not a
Speaker 4: Fox News presenter who's in charge of the of the
Speaker 4: negotiations here, perhaps a guy who understands the Russians is
Speaker 4: what that have, you know, as well as anyone in
Speaker 4: D O D. And I think that's all positive.
Speaker 3: And I do to any second part, I do think
Speaker 3: I read it correctly that it would maintain the level
Speaker 3: of military support for the very reason you said so.
Speaker 3: But they will be able to not only defend themselves
Speaker 3: but continue to rehabilitate their army and strengthen so that
Speaker 3: there is some kind of breakdown on the Seaspire that
Speaker 3: they'll be prepared, which would just only enhance the idea
Speaker 3: that Russia would stick to the Seaspire. Know that, And
Speaker 3: you're right, we shouldn't throw all of our willingness to
Speaker 3: conceive on the table to start the negotiations. I mean,
Speaker 3: that's uh, that's something we should probably consider, maybe general a.
Speaker 2: Log will Yeah sure, I mean, because you look at
Speaker 2: like the deal points, like the points in the planet,
Speaker 2: it's it's basically like somebody in the Kremlin drafted it up.
Speaker 2: It sounds like, you know what I mean, It sounds
Speaker 2: like Ukraine's gonna lose everything. And why would they why
Speaker 2: why would they do that? Like they're not the bad
Speaker 2: guys here. It's a pretty clear and cut who the
Speaker 2: bad guys are here?
Speaker 3: Right? Yeah? Yeah, for sure?
Speaker 2: Anything else, boys, what are you thinking?
Speaker 3: That's a lot that.
Speaker 2: We touched on Africa, mixing Africa now with fog bow
Speaker 2: uh doing some humanitarian aid, doing the damn thing while
Speaker 2: everyone else is stuff in their face in Turkey yesterday,
Speaker 2: Mixing Africa providing food and you know how many metric
Speaker 2: tons did you say, Mick before we started?
Speaker 3: Well, I don't, I don't, I don't want to get
Speaker 3: into a.
Speaker 2: Lot of them. Okay, sure, sorry, I can certainly talking
Speaker 2: about Sudan. Yeah, okay, so okay, great, let's do that.
Speaker 3: So Sudan has been going through this civil war since
Speaker 3: April twenty three, I think is when it started between
Speaker 3: I mean the recent issue Studentese Armed Forces, the Rapid
Speaker 3: Support Forces, which is a branch insurgent group out of
Speaker 3: the Sudanese Armed Forces. Essentially the Deputy of Burham, who
Speaker 3: runs the Students Armed Forces, leads this group as far
Speaker 3: as south. They have essentially brought the fifty million plus
Speaker 3: people of Sudan to bring It's definitely the biggest crisis
Speaker 3: even dwarfing Gaza right now. So over two million have left.
Speaker 3: It's about twenty five million that are bury food insecure,
Speaker 3: ten million on the verge of starvation, and they are
Speaker 3: actually per day ended up to two and a half million.
Speaker 3: People could die by the beginning of the new year, right,
Speaker 3: so people, many people, hundreds of thousand people are surviving
Speaker 3: on boiling leaves and water pods right now. So in
Speaker 3: the the un requirement to even deal with the current
Speaker 3: there's only fifty percent funded. So this is this is
Speaker 3: a crisis. It's only going to be more and more
Speaker 3: prominent to people around the world. This is Ethiopia nineteen
Speaker 3: eighty four. Quite frankly, we're going to see thousands, potentially
Speaker 3: tens of thousands dying, you know, in a week if
Speaker 3: something's not done. So yes, I'm not talking about us.
Speaker 3: But there's a lot of folks groups here helping, but
Speaker 3: there needs to be a lot more and needs to
Speaker 3: be funded. It's it's the there is no positive but
Speaker 3: the rainy seasons are about to come to an end,
Speaker 3: and when they do, it'll be easier to get food
Speaker 3: to people that are somewhat obviously, but it also means
Speaker 3: that the fighting will just intensify and they'll be it'll
Speaker 3: be all over to Dan, which makes it even more complicated,
Speaker 3: and both sides, I think, to some extent not equally
Speaker 3: or limiting humanitariany getting the populations as means war pair
Speaker 3: particularly the RSF. So those are things that have the
Speaker 3: international community has to be interested. It should be interested
Speaker 3: in for the sake that we shouldn't allow people to
Speaker 3: start a death, but also because this is going to
Speaker 3: create it, I would guess, and not just be guessing
Speaker 3: but sort of being predicted massive migration flows of people
Speaker 3: who aren't just going to sit there and let their
Speaker 3: kids start, and they're going to go throughout Africa, obviously
Speaker 3: causing instability in the region and potentially he headed toward Europe.
Speaker 3: So this is something that the world should be concerned about,
Speaker 3: not only for the sake of the Sudanese, but the
Speaker 3: sake of their own stability. And I think that's that
Speaker 3: everybody should about it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, those numbers are staggering too. I mean they you
Speaker 4: know Gaza. The problem is that we all that the
Speaker 4: numbers become kind of meaningless, don't they unless they're projected,
Speaker 4: you know Gaza, which is I heard what's happening there
Speaker 4: is horrific. Being forty something thousand people dying there is
Speaker 4: horrific enough. But at least that news is being brought
Speaker 4: forefront to the world via the world's media. It is
Speaker 4: a hate to say this, but it's a trending topic.
Speaker 4: Sudan is not. And yet there are multiple countries involved
Speaker 4: in this. It is a proxy war right in many ways,
Speaker 4: and that there are members of the international community, to
Speaker 4: include countries that we are friendly with who are fueling
Speaker 4: this with you know, no one, no, no, no one.
Speaker 4: To put the brakes on them and the effects on
Speaker 4: the African continent.
Speaker 5: And why.
Speaker 4: Are liable to be I mean, it's gonna happen. This
Speaker 4: isn't something that is confined just we sit on or
Speaker 4: even to the African continent. It's my point, very true.
Speaker 3: And it's going to take the international community, especially as
Speaker 3: you said, Andy, with the countries that have influence on
Speaker 3: both sides, to really push them towards and a resolution
Speaker 3: and get democracy back and plan.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So guys, uh, if you want to help mix organization,
Speaker 2: it's called fog Bow. You can google it. The links
Speaker 2: will all be in the description. Uh yeah, I'm spent.
Speaker 2: Things are fucked up.
Speaker 3: Huh yeah for folks and obviously folks at want to
Speaker 3: know is it's primarily veterans, people who've served in a
Speaker 3: USR forces a lot and soft that are taking those
Speaker 3: skills the day acquired to enable humanitarian.
Speaker 2: Make I'd love to talk to you. Go ahead, Yeah,
Speaker 2: if you're interested, definitely. The website will be in the description.
Speaker 2: You could check it out. Sorry I cut you off,
Speaker 2: but I'd definitely be interested in making talking to you about, like,
Speaker 2: you know, what you're doing now. More specifically, because I
Speaker 2: had this felt like you know, you were in the
Speaker 2: CIA as a paramilitary operations officer. I think that's safe
Speaker 2: to say. You've been in war zones a lot, You've
Speaker 2: seen it go down, and what you're doing now really like,
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's like you, I don't know if
Speaker 2: you've gained perspective from what's gone on in the last
Speaker 2: twenty years so years where you're like doing more to
Speaker 2: help people. Not saying you weren't helping people before, but
Speaker 2: it was more of a kinetic place where it wasn't
Speaker 2: like you weren't really thinking about aid to impoverish people
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. So I'd love to like sit
Speaker 2: down with you for like a long form thing and
Speaker 2: talk about like that kind of arc, you know what
Speaker 2: I mean.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I like to talk about it from perspective
Speaker 3: of what veterans I think really bring right, So not
Speaker 3: about me, but there's a whole group of veterans and
Speaker 3: I don't need to tell you guys, because you already
Speaker 3: know a lot of them are a little I won't
Speaker 3: say angry, that just plays into stereotype. But you know
Speaker 3: the way that the wars that they bought hind it,
Speaker 3: but they I think they should be proud of what
Speaker 3: they did do, and there's a lot of skills they
Speaker 3: have that could still be put to use. Right. You know,
Speaker 3: the US military does more humanitarian operations around in the
Speaker 3: world than any other group period and they do it
Speaker 3: more effectively because that's their capabilities are astounding when it
Speaker 3: comes to the ability of expeditionary operations and basically figure
Speaker 3: and shit out when nobody else can. So it doesn't
Speaker 3: need to be with us. We're a small group, but
Speaker 3: there's a lot of groups out there. There's already groups
Speaker 3: that exist, and there's probably more groups that could exist
Speaker 3: and should exist of veterans if they're looking for that.
Speaker 3: So I'd be happy to talk about it from that perspective.
Speaker 3: Maybe bring some other folks on that are doing that,
Speaker 3: maybe a group thing to really give give veterans that
Speaker 3: are looking for something potentially different than they might thinker
Speaker 3: is available to them an idea for sure.
Speaker 2: I'd love to do that, all right, boys, that's the show.
Speaker 2: Andy Milburn. He's got a book. Check it out When
Speaker 2: the Tempest Gathers and link is in the description. All
Speaker 2: of your social links will be in a description. We're
Speaker 2: all on Blue Sky. Check it out. It's in the description,
Speaker 2: as well as getting yelled at because I didn't put
Speaker 2: it in the description by people. Everything you need to know.
Speaker 2: And he's got a great substack. Mike's got a great substack. Jason.
Speaker 2: Jason's on LinkedIn and blue Sky and the best Yeah,
Speaker 2: the best way to support the show is Patreon, dot com,
Speaker 2: slash the teamhouse. You get AD free shows, so no
Speaker 2: annoying ads interrupting and uh yeah, thanks guys, This is great.
Speaker 4: Thanks Jef, Thanks guys, Thanks everybody.
Speaker 3: That's a great weekend.