Speaker 1: It's time for a margarita, all right, Not yet. First,
we've got a preview Week eighteen up next on bet
On It. Happy New Year from all of us here
at Wager Talk. I'm ready to get this party started.
Marco D'Angelo, Yanni the Great. It is week eighteen in
college football. We've got some games that are relevant, We've
got some games that are irrelevant. So I'm gonna throw
you guys for a loop. I asked Teddy Covers this
on the opening line report on Monday. He gave me
a pretty good answer, But I want to hear your opinions. Marco,
how do you navigate week eighteen. I'm over here trying
to put in Eagles and Survivor. As I just leave
the hair salon, I get this text, Hey, there's still
some plus seven on the Commanders. Eagles gonna rest their stars.
I pull over on the side of the road. I'm
putting in a plus seven minus one twenty bet Now
I'm going, oh wait, I don't know if I want
to use Eagles and Survivor, and it put my mourning
into a tail spin.
Speaker 2: So let our audience know how you.
Speaker 1: Are navigating week eighteen, because this is a never changing market, right,
this is not you know, you've been handicapping since before
I've been alive. We're eighteen in the nineties was different,
We're eighteen in the two thousands is different in twenty
twenty five. How on planet Earth do you handicap with
all of this information that is readily available to everybody else.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, delly, And that's first thing I'll say to
the survivor point of it. And this is why I
don't play Survivor. I don't do well in Survivor because
my whole life is geared around handicapping games with point spreads.
And in theory, what you did is you save a
good team for the end of the season. The problem is,
if you truly do have a good team when you
get to the last week of the season, more often
than not, they're not gonna need that game. That's a problem.
Now from a handicapping standpoint, with point spreads, we look
at the last week of the season. Vegas knows that
the public knows who needs to win. You hear the
must win scenarios all the time. You're gonna pay a
tariff for every one of those must win situations, So
be careful blindly betting teams that have to win because
they just have to win. There's no style points, you
don't need style points. They just have to win. And
sometimes they tighten the news a little bit where they
play to win, you know, not to lose, instead of
playing to win. And that's not something you want when
you're laying extra points. But when you do get games
and there's a few of them this week where the
two teams that are playing one another have the same goal,
then you know that's, you know, a regular game, that's
a game you can handicap with confidence. One last tip
for you on the games that don't mean squat do not.
I try to stay away from playing unders in those
games because the final week of the season, teams that
don't have anything to play for, and it has to
be both teams, oftentimes it ends up looking like an
All star game. Nobody's playing defense. They're just out there.
They don't want to get hurt, they want to finish
the season out and they're having like a school yard
pickup game in the backyard. You'll see points in those games.
Those are my tips for week eighteen.
Speaker 1: VR from the Wise Guy perspective. Power ratings mean the
world right. But power ratings do not quantify situations.
Speaker 2: So break it down how the wise guys are looking
at Week eighteen.
Speaker 1: We have got, i'm would say, a nice handful of games,
and we're gonna get into those games here coming up,
but there are.
Speaker 2: Six games that mean nothing.
Speaker 4: You got to be very selective, like that's the bottom line,
because there's just going to be so much randomness to
those outcomes. And whenever that's the case, you keep going
further out on that risk curve, but you're not getting
any added return. You're still laying eleven to ten. That's
the bottom line. That's why you got to be very cautious.
And more times than not, very few of us are
ever going to get out ahead of the information. So
the sportsbook's already going to have factored any of the
important information into the betting line. As we say, it's
already baked into the cake. So knowing this team has
to win becomes irrelevant. Knowing this team's playing for seating
position becomes irrelevant. The difficulty is, how do you quantify that?
What does that work to the betting line? None of
us know. That's where it becomes a guessing game, and
anytime you're guessing you're in the disadvantaged position. You're not
betting from any position to strength. So I urge recreational
betters to be very elective this week. It's the final week.
Next week we'll be talking playoffs and everybody will be motivated.
You've had sixteen, seventeen, eighteen weeks to make money. There's
still money available in this final week. But you've got
to be selective. That's the key, and more importantly, try
to take advantage of the overreactions, because that's what's going
to happen if you don't get out ahead of the information.
The best way to take advantage of it is the
overreaction to the information. For myself, that's what I'm doing,
and most of the groups that i'm moving for I
expect the same thing because I'm not seeing much action.
Like it's already what Wednesday, And I think I have
one premium I gave out to subscribers and I'm happy
with that. We've made a lot of profit in twenty
twenty five, no reason to give it back. So yes,
stay selective, pick your spots, and take advantage of the overreactions.
We always think players are worth more than they are weather,
it's more pertinent than it is. That's that's my approach
on this final week.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go to you first here on
some of these meaningful games. Saturday, four thirty pm. Panthers
two and out point favorites at the Bucks total forty
four and a half. We all know I got that
Panthers four to one ticket, and no, I'm not hedging
that was something I put in earlier to start the season.
Speaker 2: Marco D'Angelo. In fact, I'm.
Speaker 1: Gonna double down. I'm gonna tease the Panthers here. But
it does make me a little nervous because I know
VR is on the other side with the Buccaneers.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think this is a line based on a ton
of recency bias, and I understand the argument. Tampa Bay
is a team of two seasons, right, they looked really
good early on of late, they can't get anything right,
So if you zoom out, it looks like obviously Tampa's designed.
But recency bias is why I'm seeing the public money
starting to come in on Carolina. Why this line isn't three,
Because the bottom line is we're getting Tampa Bay at
a huge discount based on how bad they've played of late.
Speaker 5: Let's not forget.
Speaker 4: Not only have they lost four straight games, they were
favored in every single one of those games, so the
market expected them to win.
Speaker 5: They underperformed. But here's the beauty.
Speaker 4: Dig a little deeper, and what you're fined is every
one of those losses came by one score. They lost
by three at Miami, they lost by three at Carolina,
they lost by one to Atlanta, and they lost by
ford to New Orleans.
Speaker 5: If they would have just gone two and two in
those games.
Speaker 4: Or if they would have got lucky and let four
to o in those games, what would this line be
against Carolina right now?
Speaker 5: Even if they would have won the three.
Speaker 4: And lost that game against Carolina, what would this line
have been. Let's not forget just December twenty first, Right
December twenty first, Tampa Bay was a three point favorite
in Carolina. They are now the two and a half
point juice favorite at home. There's a ton of recency
bias there. More importantly, power ratings. That's what I stick
to Tampa Bay. I have them right now seventeenth in
my power ratings. I have Carolina twenty ninth in my
power ratings. So only three teams worse than Carolina. Again,
this number.
Speaker 5: Is recency bias.
Speaker 4: To the max, and we'll take advantage of that by
taking the much better Tampa Bay team that's had a
tough string of schedule.
Speaker 5: Top fifteen offense, top twenty defense.
Speaker 4: When I look at Carolina, only two teams are less
efficient offensively, they're barely in the top twenty defensively. Take
Tampa Bay lay the two and a half. They win
this game easily, all.
Speaker 2: Right, Marco DiAngelo?
Speaker 1: Another game that might have some implications from a NFC
and or Super Bowl perspective. Let's go to Saturday night,
eight pm. The Seahawks now one and a half point
favorites at the Niners forty nine and a half, and
surprise surprise, Kelly wants to tease the Niners.
Speaker 3: Surprise surprise. And that's no surprise, Kelly. You know where
I'm gonna go in this one. And I know right
now the flavor of the month, and it changes every week.
You know, there's a new darling, and that darling is
the forty nine ers. And why not you look at
what they've done. They've won six in a row. Oh wait,
guess what so has Seattle? But The difference is San
Francisco is doing it by scoring a ton of points.
Everybody loves teams that score, and that's what the forty
nine Ers are. This is a team that has scored
twenty six or more points in seven of their last
eight games. In their last three games, they've scored forty two,
forty eight, and thirty seven points. And you know, everybody
saw that game Sunday night against the Bears. What an
epic Sunday night game that was as both teams went
up and down the field in that one. I can't
do it because as good as their offense is, the
problem is they're having to score those points because they're
giving up the points. And in fairness, you know, I've racked.
You know, we've made our comments about Chicago this year,
and I full disclosure, I was on Chicago last week
against the forty nine ers. But the forty nine Ers
have not played a tough defense in the last three weeks.
I know, Chicago leads the league in turnovers, that's about it.
They needed those turnovers to stay in the games because
they give up a lot of yards. I am going
with this defense of the Seahawks, and look at it
they're the favorite on the road. If San Francisco everybody's
in love with them, why did Vegas make them a
home underdog in this game. That's a very telling point
to start this game, knowing that there's gonna be a
ton of teasers coming in taking them up over the touchdown.
A lot of sharp players just are gonna tease numbers, Kelly,
and that's the number that you're supposed to tease. I
like the defense of Seattle. They're, you know, top three
for me in the NFL this year. I'm gonna ride them. Yes,
I know we gotta worry which Sam Donald are we
gonna get. But let's be honest. We all talk about
Sam Donald, and you know the New York Jets. Sam Donald, Well,
he's played two years now since that, and look at
what he's done. He had two bad games last year.
Unfortunately it was the final two of the season, the
regular season finale and then the playoff game, and then
he had that bad game against the Rams the first
time when he threw the four interceptions, but in the
Rams happened to be two of those three bad games.
I look for him to have a good game here.
And the key is they can run the football, give
me Seattle ball control, better defense. I'm gonna go ahead
and take them to get the job done. They'll both
be in the playoffs. It's going to be Seattle with
the number one seed.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk a little bit more about seating on
Sunday night at four twenty five pm.
Speaker 2: The Lions another.
Speaker 1: Beautiful team that I'd like to tease at the Bears
fifty and a half, but.
Speaker 2: I know you guys don't want me to sit here
and talk about teasers.
Speaker 1: But they've done so well this year except for that
Lions team last week, and of course the Rams, they
were absolutely and utterly pitiful as road favorites.
Speaker 2: Now we're asking the Lions to just go in and
beat the Bears.
Speaker 1: Remember that team that they just absolutely smoked to start
the season. Boy, oh boy, would Chicago loved to get
that one back. Lions have won six of the last
seven against the Bears, including that week two fifty two
to twenty one ass whooping gamble against a former offensive
coordinator and Ben Johnson. This one couldn't have been written
better by the NFL script writers.
Speaker 2: And right now, Chicago.
Speaker 1: They clinched the NFC North last week, and they can
ConTroll their own destiny for the number two seed in
the NFC. Lions have been absolutely reeling. What is the saying, Oh,
they don't lose two games in a row, but this
one is a little disrespectful. You've got Bears wide receiver
rom A Dunzie, Luther Burden, and the third one I'm
not even gonna try to pronounce.
Speaker 2: All listed is questionable.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys heard this through the grapevine,
but the gold Sheet was talking about how Chicago was
battling the flu there versus San Francisco on Sunday night
and members of the team actually had to travel separately. Right,
So here we are headed back to Soldier Field, with
Detroit a little extra time to prep for this one
after playing on Christmas. I don't know, I think the
Lions getting a little too frisky here with the field goal.
I'm a little nervous, not gonna lie to take the
Bears and survivor, so I think I will not use
them as my second one. Like I'm actually probably going
to pivot and use the Chiefs. But we'll get to
that game never. We're not going to break down that
god awful one for you.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: We've got some other fun ones to bring you here,
Marco DiAngelo.
Speaker 2: Before we get into those, can.
Speaker 1: You let everybody know, speaking of pivoting, we're pivoting from
Christmas to New Year's here at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, we had that special that we or closed
out twenty twenty five with where you can get Exmus
twenty five and save twenty five percent. Well, you guys
loved it so much and we wanted to make sure
you were able to get something to start the new year.
Speaker 5: So what do we do.
Speaker 3: We're extending through Friday, New twenty five. Just type in
new twenty five you'll get twenty five percent off anything
that's a daily package, a weekly package, monthly package. You
really want to save money, grab your favorite capper and
buy them for the year at a twenty five percent discount. Guys,
you've watched the show all year. You know what VR
and myself have done for you on the show. Grab
one of us for the season, or grab both of us.
What a one two punch that would be for you
for twenty twenty six. But it's good on any caper.
There's no limit. You can use that cube punt as
many times as you want through Friday. Take advantage of
it New twenty five Kelly, that's the special this week.
Speaker 1: Marco is very humble in that he and VR have
absolutely rocked this year.
Speaker 2: I just couldn't figure out the best bet, barking dog.
They just didn't.
Speaker 1: They just didn't want to get along. I couldn't ever
just win both. That being said, you guys shoud jump
in the comment section, give us that like full thumbs
up action. Tell us you love us, tell us you
hate us, and.
Speaker 2: We will get back to you.
Speaker 1: Because I'm on everybody's ass on Wader talking about the
comment section these days.
Speaker 2: All right, VR, you're up first. You have a total
for us, and this is kind of interesting.
Speaker 1: I don't mean to pin you two against each other,
but Marco said, hey, two teams nothing to play for.
Speaker 2: You don't want to play an under yet?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got to go under here and listen, I'm
just going to be straight. I haven't gotten to the window.
I know you guys love when I say that, but
I haven't gotten to the window with this. I did
get to the window with Tampa Bay, the game I
covered earlier that was a four percent to subscribers we
got down at minus two and a half, a little
bit juice going to be selective again. We've made a
lot of money in NFL, number one in regular season,
number one in college football. No reason to bleed any
of that back. But value is going to open up
between now and Sunday, So rest the short We'll have
a lot more bets, but just let the market take form.
Right now, most of the focus is on the college
football with the playoffs coming up New Year's Eve, New
Year's Day, so a lot of these lines will move
in the NFL, so give us a break. On the show,
We're trying to share as much information as possible, but
at the same time, not you share useless information knowing
that based on some of the results earlier in the day,
lines are going to move later in the day when
some teams have something to play for some don't have
something to play for. So that's why we've used the
condensed version of the show. Please give us a break there.
Throughout the season, we've done as much as we can
to give as much quality, actionable information as possible until
we get to the playoffs, and then we resume. With
that said, let's go under in Cleveland and Cincinnati. And
here's why.
Speaker 5: Number One, if you look at the series, it's been
an under series when these two teams play.
Speaker 4: That's why this line is lower than what's expected based
on what they've done recently.
Speaker 5: Just look at the high scoring for both of these.
Speaker 4: Teams of late, and I think that's why we're looking
at higher total than otherwise would be because just based
on the stats.
Speaker 5: For both these teams.
Speaker 4: You look at Cleveland, they're a top fifteen team believe
it or not, defensively, and they've had a top ten
strength of schedule. And with Cincinnati, it's the offensive side
that's been their strength. But they're going up against a
much tougher defense this week, and I think they're gonna
have some trouble putting up points against Cleveland, something they
haven't had problems doing the last few weeks. Cleveland it's
the worst offense, that's the bottom line. There's no offense
less deficient than Cleveland. And luckily for Cincinnati, that's where
their weakness.
Speaker 5: Is on the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 4: So now they're going up against one of the weakest
the weakest offenses. So I don't think Cincinnati is going
to be giving up a lot of points like they have,
so I expect a much lower scoring game from both
these teams. We're going to go under forty four and
a half. The only reason I haven't released the subscribers
is I haven't seen the market reflect this. In fact,
i've seen it creep up a little bit, so I
just need to confirm it before I get to the window.
But power rating wise, data wise, matchup wise, I do
like the under. The only thing I do fear is
what Marco said. Defense does take a lot more effort,
and when you have nothing to play for, it's hard
to give effort. But we're gonna go under that forty
four and a half.
Speaker 5: That's bad.
Speaker 1: You guys can catch VR on his steam room this
Sunday after last call, so we can get all.
Speaker 2: Of that late steam from the wise guys.
Speaker 1: You can also catch him Saturday with some college basketball
with me as well eleven PM at eleven am Eastern
on Saturday and Sunday. Every once in a while I
get Marco D'Angelo to join me, but he's been riding
the deli so high he doesn't feel like putting in
an overtime for us. On the weekends, Marco are you
gonna have a Deli video out this weekend.
Speaker 3: Yes, Kelly, And I've never said no whenever you've asked me.
You just got to ask h this is a situation
the Deli. What we did last week is we did
do the Deli in depth and we gave you three games.
It was out on Friday last week. And if you
tuned in, even though a lot of comments didn't like
the three games I put out, well we went three
and oho and one of those was Cleveland over Mike
Pittsburgh Steelers. And I explained why in that one, and
I'm gonna explain in second when I give you my
best bet why we're going to against Cleveland this week.
But check out the Deli. It'll be up Friday morning
early on wager Talk TV, and we will break down
some games for you once again and tell you what's
happening with my late telephone plays. Excuse me, boy, did
I go be flashback to the nineties, our late web plays.
Speaker 2: That are sixty years old?
Speaker 1: Know exactly what Marco is talking about that remember.
Speaker 3: The commercials when we were against Yeah, all right, well
here we go. There was a flashback. But hey, you
know what, Kelly, We're you know, we've you know, changed
with the times, and we've had our one of our
best seasons. So maybe something you can relate to him
like a fine wine. Kelly, I get better with age,
So check out the deli. We'll have some winners for
you on Friday. For my best bet, we're gonna go
to the same game that VR just talked about, Cincinnati
and Cleveland. And for a lot of the things that
VR set in there, it actually helps my play. He
talked about Cincinnati being great offensively but not good defensively,
and what is the weakness of Cleveland, Well that's moving
the football. So that's going to bode well for me
because what has not been a problem has been the
Cincinnati offense. And ever since Joe Burrow returned, and that
was five games ago on Thanksgiving Night he returned against Baltimore.
If you remember, they've now put up thirty two or
more points in four of the five games since he's returned.
They're playing hard to build momentum for next year. And
why are they playing hard Just the fact that Joe
Burrow rushed his way back when they had virtually no
shot at the playoffs. They were a team that was
pure trash all season, but he wanted to come back.
And if you heard that interview on Thanksgiving night, whenever
he was asked why did you come back, he says,
because I want to be out there with my guys
and that's what a leader is. And they're playing hard.
I am going to ride them this week offensively. I
don't see Cleveland making enough stops to slow them down.
Now the Cleveland side, one of the reasons why I
don't see them making enough stops is Cleveland played their
super Bowl last week. Yes, playing the Pittsburgh Steelers, denying
them the AFC North on their home field was as
big of a win as you could have for the
Browns that have absolutely nothing to play for. And that's
what I talked about on the Delhi last week. I
told you guys, that's what was going to happen, and
they did it. I don't see Cleveland coming to play. Yeah,
you could say, oh, it's an in state rivalry. They
don't care about Cincinnati, that is their third rival in
the division. It's Pittsburgh first, then it's Baltimore because if
you remember, Baltimore was the original Cleveland Browns in the
franchise before they moved to Baltimore, and then it's Cincinnati.
This is a game since he once, I'm gonna go
ahead and lay it with Cincinnati. They are my best
bet for the show this week. Let's go ahead and
do it. And the other thing of Cleveland's defense as
good as they were last week. Remember the Steelers were
without dk Metcalf, who was their big source of offense
in the passing game all year, and then their second
source was Washington, the big tight end. Well, he broke
his arm early in that game last week, so they
had nobody to throw the football to last week. Go
ahead and take Cincinnati. They go out on bring in
the New Year with a win.
Speaker 1: I'll take it because I just tease them with Ohio
State for tonight.
Speaker 2: Listen, do as I say, not as I do.
Speaker 1: As Marco said, we missed the boat VR gave you
guys Ohio State last week. It didn't matter. It already
moved by the time I went to bet it, and
I went a little action for New Year's Eve. Okay,
so we're gonna break some rules. I do have my
Winton teasers, so it's almost okay. It's not okay, but
it's almost.
Speaker 2: It's scars.
Speaker 1: You don't want to have fun with your friends, you
want to watch football.
Speaker 2: That is correct. That is what I did last year.
Speaker 1: I was over there sweating the Penn State game while
everybody else was getting hammered, and I was like, nobody
talked to me.
Speaker 2: Uh, we had a great time. All right, let's get
into this one.
Speaker 1: I went back and forth on a couple of different
games for best bets, and a lot of things have
just really moved, probably too far out of whack.
Speaker 2: I like the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Initially, that one got absolutely obliterated after the Chargers said, hey,
we probably don't care, right, So I'm looking for teams
that care.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure Minnesota cares here, but Green Bay already
locked into the number seven seed in the playoffs. They
cannot move out of that spot no matter what happens
this weekend.
Speaker 2: The Packers also have lost three straight.
Speaker 1: Injuries are mounting on both sides of the ball, particularly
on the defensive side of the ball. It doesn't matter
whether it's gonna be Malik Willis or Jordan Love, but
I would like to think the Packers are not gonna
trot Jordan Love back out there for this football game.
I mentioned that banged up Packers defense. Yeah, the same
one that allowed three hundred and seven rushing yards against
the Ravens last week. You guys are gonna go Kelly.
You can't lay almost a touchdown here with Minnesota.
Speaker 2: Are you insane?
Speaker 1: Max Brosmer had like fifty passing yards and got sacks
seven times against the Lions and somehow sti't won this
football game. Well, there's a good chance and maybe JJ McCarthy.
We'll see what Kevin O'Connell has to say towards the
end of the week. But this is one team limping
into the playoffs, one team that would probably like to
get a win over their divisional rival.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota lay the six and a half. Green
Bay is checked out at least until next week. If
you're gonna check it out, it's that time. We're checking
out until the wild card round of the playoffs. We're
gonna take a little break, We're gonna regroup. We're gonna
find you guys some more winners. Kelly Stewart, Janni, the
Greek Marco DiAngelo. Until next week, make sure you guys
check out that college football playoff video. Of course, Mega Show.
Speaker 2: We'll see you then