WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.640 The voices of reason, a voice in the dark, heard daily. 2 00:00:03.560 --> 00:00:05.679 Exactly the things that needs to be said. 3 00:00:05.879 --> 00:00:06.879 Fifty five KRC. 4 00:00:07.440 --> 00:00:12.679 The talk station should have eight O five I fifty 5 00:00:12.679 --> 00:00:15.439 five KR see the talk station. Brian Thomas fishing everyone 6 00:00:15.439 --> 00:00:17.960 a very happy Monday. And it is Monday. It is 7 00:00:18.000 --> 00:00:20.399 eight oh five. It is time for Monday Monday with 8 00:00:20.440 --> 00:00:23.079 Brian James from All with Financial Brian James, Welcome back 9 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:24.839 to the program, my friend, good to talk to you. 10 00:00:25.679 --> 00:00:28.480 Good morning, good morning, glad to be here. Thanks once 11 00:00:28.480 --> 00:00:30.800 again for the opportunity to talk to you and your listeners. Well, 12 00:00:30.879 --> 00:00:32.880 the first topic's got me a little worried. Now, just 13 00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:37.039 because someone thinks it may happen doesn't necessarily mean that 14 00:00:37.079 --> 00:00:40.439 they're relying on car you know, concrete facts and information. 15 00:00:40.600 --> 00:00:43.200 But I'm a little frightened by fifty one percent of 16 00:00:43.240 --> 00:00:47.759 Americans worrying about a stock market crash, you know, as 17 00:00:47.759 --> 00:00:51.159 opposed to like a correction or a downturn or something. 18 00:00:51.200 --> 00:00:54.359 But I mean a crash is a significant, like massive 19 00:00:55.320 --> 00:00:57.359 life changing ruining phenomenon. 20 00:00:58.640 --> 00:01:00.880 Yeah, it all depends on how you to these things too. 21 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:03.719 Now, no, I would point out that none of these things, 22 00:01:03.799 --> 00:01:07.000 none of these forecasts are ever based on factual information, 23 00:01:07.040 --> 00:01:09.359 which is what makes them forecast. We never know what's coming. 24 00:01:09.439 --> 00:01:11.879 That's just these are just measurements of what mood are 25 00:01:11.879 --> 00:01:15.000 we in. So one of this is that a new 26 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:17.200 study is out showing that fifty one percent of people 27 00:01:17.239 --> 00:01:21.319 are expecting a market crash. I also would remind everyone 28 00:01:21.400 --> 00:01:24.200 that the same percentage of people were expecting the second 29 00:01:24.280 --> 00:01:27.359 leg down from the recession, the brief recession that occurred 30 00:01:27.400 --> 00:01:30.640 during the COVID period. Uh that was five years ago, 31 00:01:30.760 --> 00:01:33.239 and they spent probably two or three years waiting for 32 00:01:33.319 --> 00:01:35.280 that to kick in, and it never did. Thank We 33 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:37.840 just talk about things until they happen or don't happen. 34 00:01:37.959 --> 00:01:39.840 Thank you change that way. 35 00:01:39.680 --> 00:01:41.680 You see, because you know there always is going to 36 00:01:41.719 --> 00:01:43.760 be some kind of downturn at some point. So if 37 00:01:43.760 --> 00:01:47.040 we keep the conversation going on for enough years that 38 00:01:47.159 --> 00:01:49.079 at some point you can say, see, I told you 39 00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:50.439 so exactly. 40 00:01:50.519 --> 00:01:52.599 I've been talking about rain for the better part of 41 00:01:52.640 --> 00:01:54.719 a week, Brian, and look, lo and behold, I was 42 00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:55.680 right last night. 43 00:01:55.719 --> 00:01:57.879 Go pick this all up. I'm no sure damas you 44 00:01:58.040 --> 00:01:58.840 kept this all up. 45 00:01:58.920 --> 00:02:01.879 But some of the this, this expression of concern, I 46 00:02:01.879 --> 00:02:04.400 guess is predicated on the tariff situation, which I know 47 00:02:04.519 --> 00:02:06.319 we're going to be talking a little bit more about. 48 00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:09.560 But tariffs have got people a little spooked and jittery. 49 00:02:09.599 --> 00:02:14.919 I mean, I've saw some really frightening statistics about the 50 00:02:15.120 --> 00:02:18.120 impact on car buying and how much it may increase 51 00:02:18.199 --> 00:02:20.120 the price of cars, which I know is on your 52 00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:23.759 short list of talk about today, maybe ten thousand dollars more, 53 00:02:23.800 --> 00:02:26.240 depending But it's you know, when you looked at the 54 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:29.599 breakdown of what's in an American car, you know, American 55 00:02:29.639 --> 00:02:32.000 car made in Detroit, and you're like, actually, no, it's not. 56 00:02:32.120 --> 00:02:35.360 It's like forty to sixty percent imported stuff. 57 00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:39.360 Just because the CEO's rear end sits in an office 58 00:02:39.360 --> 00:02:41.840 that is within the bounds of the United States doesn't 59 00:02:41.879 --> 00:02:44.840 mean that that particular company's cars are exempt. For example, 60 00:02:45.080 --> 00:02:48.520 teriff exposure for GM's about forty five percent, twenty five 61 00:02:48.560 --> 00:02:51.840 percent for Stalantis the artist formerly known as Chrysler, and 62 00:02:51.840 --> 00:02:54.639 about twenty percent for four. So even in US made cars, 63 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:58.120 about thirty five percent of parts are not compliant. With 64 00:02:58.159 --> 00:03:01.520 the US Mexico Canada agreement from a few years ago 65 00:03:01.960 --> 00:03:04.039 that Trump put in place but doesn't seem to like anymore. 66 00:03:04.199 --> 00:03:06.800 So the estimates rise from you know, anywhere around twenty 67 00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:09.719 seven hundred to five thousand dollars, maybe in some extreme 68 00:03:09.759 --> 00:03:13.280 scenarios like you mentioned, ten thousand dollars in the added 69 00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:16.360 costs of paying for these arguments. Now, the thing to 70 00:03:16.840 --> 00:03:18.840 look at though, is these aren't supposed to kick in 71 00:03:18.840 --> 00:03:21.639 for a couple of weeks. These are still negotiating tactics. 72 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:24.800 Maybe something changes between now in April second or third 73 00:03:24.800 --> 00:03:28.000 whenever they's actually kick in, but remains to be seen. 74 00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:32.080 Yeah, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the scenario does change, 75 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:36.120 and maybe whoever he's asking for something from will capitulate 76 00:03:36.240 --> 00:03:38.199 and give it to some of Trump's terms and that 77 00:03:38.280 --> 00:03:40.400 we won't have to go through the tariff struggle because 78 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:41.680 you know, I mean, you know it, I know it. 79 00:03:41.719 --> 00:03:43.560 They're going to make the price that things go up. 80 00:03:43.599 --> 00:03:46.319 There's just there's nothing you can get around that, whether 81 00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:49.360 they're fair or not, I mean reciprocal. I understand the 82 00:03:49.479 --> 00:03:54.560 fairness argument, because we're having our things subject to tariffs 83 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:56.879 over on their side of the ledger of whatever country 84 00:03:56.919 --> 00:03:59.840 is receiving them and slapping the tariffs on. Why they're 85 00:03:59.840 --> 00:04:02.520 doing that, I don't know. The genesis or basis behind 86 00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:05.360 any of it. But you know, if this isn't trying 87 00:04:05.360 --> 00:04:08.560 to create an even playing field, that argument at least 88 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:11.520 passes Mustard. But you can't get around the practical effect 89 00:04:11.599 --> 00:04:14.360 that they're going to make things more expensive. So and 90 00:04:14.400 --> 00:04:16.959 that's we don't need that right now, Brian. 91 00:04:17.680 --> 00:04:19.800 That is not helping, of course, no, But well I 92 00:04:19.839 --> 00:04:22.360 would throw out there though, if you one interesting thing 93 00:04:22.399 --> 00:04:25.079 I've noticed over the past couple months, because I've noticed 94 00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:26.680 my phones haven't ranged very much. 95 00:04:26.680 --> 00:04:28.000 People aren't too spooked by this. 96 00:04:28.519 --> 00:04:30.560 Some of it is because there's a decent amount of 97 00:04:30.560 --> 00:04:32.720 people out there who feel that the person in charge 98 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:34.720 right now is exactly who they wanted and this is 99 00:04:34.800 --> 00:04:36.839 just the pain we have to go for we have 100 00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:38.959 to deal with. But other people are simply looking and 101 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:40.879 I would say most people are simply looking at their 102 00:04:40.879 --> 00:04:44.800 investment statements. If you are sitting on a properly diversified portfolio, 103 00:04:44.879 --> 00:04:48.000 you're not down that much. Because where the United States 104 00:04:48.040 --> 00:04:51.839 is proactively making changes to present ourselves differently to the world, 105 00:04:51.920 --> 00:04:55.519 and the overall economic situation on this planet that is 106 00:04:55.600 --> 00:04:57.959 causing so some of this is pretty much self inflicted. 107 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.759 We're gonna grumble about tariffs and all these well, then yeah, 108 00:05:00.800 --> 00:05:03.000 the stock market's going to get a little squirrely. That 109 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:06.720 creates an opportunity for other places. So therefore, as we're 110 00:05:06.720 --> 00:05:08.759 sitting here right now, the S and P five hundred 111 00:05:08.800 --> 00:05:10.959 is down about five percent for the year. The Nasdaq 112 00:05:11.040 --> 00:05:13.959 is an official correction territory, down ten percent a year. 113 00:05:13.959 --> 00:05:14.279 Today. 114 00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:17.639 International stocks, which I've spent the last ten years trying 115 00:05:17.680 --> 00:05:20.560 to convince people not to dump, are up nine percent. 116 00:05:20.839 --> 00:05:22.759 Our merging market funds are up about four and a 117 00:05:22.800 --> 00:05:25.839 half percent. So if you have a diversified portfolio, you're 118 00:05:25.879 --> 00:05:29.879 probably about even for the year. Despite some of the scariest, craziest, 119 00:05:29.920 --> 00:05:34.199 most unsettling headlines we've seen, so mostly the market is quiet. 120 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:36.839 Well, you know, it's interesting you put that in the 121 00:05:36.879 --> 00:05:39.560 context of your phone not ringing very much, because, as 122 00:05:39.560 --> 00:05:42.160 you pointed out so many times over the years, your 123 00:05:42.199 --> 00:05:45.120 phone will ring a lot when it hits the fan. 124 00:05:45.240 --> 00:05:47.360 In some way, you got a you know, precipitous drop 125 00:05:47.399 --> 00:05:49.439 and the S and P five hundred or something. People 126 00:05:49.480 --> 00:05:51.519 get all wigged out and like, should I sell? Should 127 00:05:51.560 --> 00:05:55.519 I sell? And that's what you're You're a counselor, as 128 00:05:55.560 --> 00:05:58.360 a financial planner, you're you're a talker off of a 129 00:05:58.480 --> 00:06:00.720 ledge kind of guy, exactly. 130 00:06:00.879 --> 00:06:02.560 And that's what we talk about. We talked about how 131 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:03.800 are we going to deal with these things? And then 132 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:06.439 we also put it in context of history. Something else 133 00:06:06.480 --> 00:06:09.800 I've been boning up on is what happens, what has 134 00:06:09.839 --> 00:06:12.360 happened during some of the scariest historical times we've had 135 00:06:12.439 --> 00:06:15.160 here and then the next closest one. And I don't 136 00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:18.319 mean to prognosticate anything here, but World War II obviously 137 00:06:18.439 --> 00:06:20.279 was a reshuffling of the deck in terms of how 138 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:23.439 the world gets along with each other. Nineteen forty one, 139 00:06:23.839 --> 00:06:26.000 the S and P five hundred was down somewhere between 140 00:06:26.040 --> 00:06:28.519 ten and fifteen percent. That was when we first stepped 141 00:06:28.560 --> 00:06:33.319 into that fray, and the unknown became the talk. 142 00:06:33.160 --> 00:06:34.560 Of the day. We have no idea what's coming out 143 00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:34.759 of this. 144 00:06:35.199 --> 00:06:38.160 Nineteen forty two, forty three, forty four, and forty five 145 00:06:38.480 --> 00:06:41.800 were each up a minimum of fifteen to twenty percent. 146 00:06:42.040 --> 00:06:44.800 So if you own stocks through that entire period, you 147 00:06:44.839 --> 00:06:47.519 did just fine. You weren't comfortable, you weren't happy, but 148 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:48.560 you didn't lose money. 149 00:06:49.240 --> 00:06:51.000 I did not know that. That's interesting. 150 00:06:51.079 --> 00:06:53.800 It's kind of mind Bob and think about it, because 151 00:06:53.879 --> 00:06:56.120 all that means when wherever we have craziness, we don't 152 00:06:56.199 --> 00:06:59.639 root for this stuff. But generally speaking, American companies historically 153 00:06:59.680 --> 00:07:02.519 have been the best ever at figuring out about how 154 00:07:02.519 --> 00:07:05.000 to profit off of something. So remember the stories from 155 00:07:05.000 --> 00:07:08.079 World War Two about how factories pivoted to making instead 156 00:07:08.120 --> 00:07:11.680 of cars, they were making tanks. Instead of creating tires, 157 00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:14.279 they were making treads for the equipment we needed overseas. 158 00:07:14.399 --> 00:07:17.560 It's just a catalyst the market will pivot to wherever 159 00:07:17.600 --> 00:07:20.040 the profits can be made. We saw the same thing 160 00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:22.519 when COVID kicked in and everybody had to go out 161 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:24.560 by a second set of computers to take home so 162 00:07:24.600 --> 00:07:26.480 we can all work from home. We all never heard 163 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:28.680 of zoom before. Now zoom is pretty much ubiquito us. 164 00:07:28.680 --> 00:07:31.040 I'm looking at you on it right now. These are 165 00:07:31.240 --> 00:07:34.519 just catalysts that create an opportunity for somebody to make money. 166 00:07:34.800 --> 00:07:38.680 Yeah, And I guess the other component is when Trump 167 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:41.120 announced these tariffs. And I'm not sure there's a direct 168 00:07:41.360 --> 00:07:44.600 straight line you can draw, but a lot of very 169 00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:49.040 major businesses, you know, large, you know, multi billion dollar companies, 170 00:07:49.079 --> 00:07:51.920 including autobile manufacturers. So they're going to start moving some 171 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:54.759 production here, and that's exactly the point Trump was trying 172 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:59.160 to accomplish the return of American manufacturing jobs. And maybe 173 00:07:59.199 --> 00:08:01.560 it'll it'll bear I guess the question is when you 174 00:08:01.560 --> 00:08:05.759 look at the component parts of these American automobiles, as 175 00:08:05.759 --> 00:08:09.160 we just talked about, can we get those component parts 176 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:12.079 to return or be manufactured here, and if so, how 177 00:08:12.120 --> 00:08:13.800 long would something like that take. 178 00:08:14.480 --> 00:08:16.759 And how long will it or how much will it cost? 179 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:19.800 As you always point out that we are an expensive 180 00:08:19.839 --> 00:08:22.240 place to produce anything because we've got an awful lot 181 00:08:22.279 --> 00:08:23.360 of rules and things in place. 182 00:08:23.399 --> 00:08:25.879 Some of that is being dismantled right now. You know. 183 00:08:25.959 --> 00:08:29.160 There were some announcements made over the weekend about some 184 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:32.919 steps he's taken to weakened unions, some first shots fired 185 00:08:32.960 --> 00:08:35.759 across the valle at the labor market here in the 186 00:08:35.840 --> 00:08:36.480 United States. 187 00:08:36.559 --> 00:08:37.879 That's not necessarily going to. 188 00:08:37.879 --> 00:08:39.679 Go well because a lot of those people were his 189 00:08:39.720 --> 00:08:42.159 supporters and they're having some of the rugs pulled out 190 00:08:42.159 --> 00:08:44.960 from under them. But if we're going to manufacture parts here, 191 00:08:45.000 --> 00:08:47.600 and this is all about making the United States more profitable, 192 00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:50.120 he's got to look at the cost of good soul. 193 00:08:50.200 --> 00:08:51.799 What does it cost to produce this stuff? 194 00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:54.559 I just bringing the jobs back on shore isn't the 195 00:08:54.600 --> 00:08:58.120 only step that's true. That is true, and we know 196 00:08:58.200 --> 00:09:00.600 all day long it's impossible to eat even the playing 197 00:09:00.639 --> 00:09:04.080 field from a production cost standpoint when you are dealing 198 00:09:04.159 --> 00:09:07.240 with countries that have just practically dictatorial control over the 199 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:10.519 working conditions, and quite often they're poor and the people 200 00:09:10.559 --> 00:09:12.919 do not get paid very much. So that in and 201 00:09:12.919 --> 00:09:17.519 of itself is kind of a it's it's a drag 202 00:09:17.559 --> 00:09:19.559 on doing business in the United States. That's why everybody 203 00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:21.399 moved over to China for so long we can give 204 00:09:21.440 --> 00:09:25.240 you embraced China as a trading partner. They have inexpensive labor, 205 00:09:25.320 --> 00:09:28.799 and they're welcoming. They're happy to open manufacturing facilities and 206 00:09:28.840 --> 00:09:32.320 get that the skids greased for that. And then next thing, 207 00:09:32.360 --> 00:09:34.440 you know, we find that we're not making anything here. 208 00:09:34.480 --> 00:09:36.799 When it all hits a fan, like during the pandemic 209 00:09:37.159 --> 00:09:39.759 that was a frightened the cold water does to reality, 210 00:09:39.759 --> 00:09:43.000 I think I'd rather pay more for something knowing that 211 00:09:43.080 --> 00:09:45.519 it was made here and that we have a steady 212 00:09:45.639 --> 00:09:48.919 supply of it. You know, then I have to rely 213 00:09:49.000 --> 00:09:51.360 on what might very well be our arch enemy in 214 00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:55.120 a conflict to make it yeah, I think philosophically you'd 215 00:09:55.120 --> 00:09:56.679 have a lot of people agreeing with that. But on 216 00:09:56.720 --> 00:09:59.399 the other hand, the market and the price of any 217 00:09:59.399 --> 00:10:02.679 given stop is based off of how profitable can that company. 218 00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:03.159 Be going forward. 219 00:10:03.360 --> 00:10:05.679 Philosophically, we can say, yeah, I want to buy stuff 220 00:10:05.679 --> 00:10:07.559 from here, but that's going to have an impact on 221 00:10:07.559 --> 00:10:08.360 the price as well. 222 00:10:08.519 --> 00:10:10.879 All right, well we'll stop contemplating our navels. We'll bring 223 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:12.799 and Brien James back talk a little bit about futures 224 00:10:12.840 --> 00:10:15.840 dropping among the tariff hears and people. I guess from 225 00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:18.720 a good stand thing they're adding to their rainy day fund, 226 00:10:18.720 --> 00:10:20.679 which I'm going to guess Brian James thinks is a 227 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:23.679 good idea. More with Money Monday's Brian James, after I 228 00:10:23.720 --> 00:10:26.200 mentioned my dear friends at Budd Herbert Motors, get in 229 00:10:26.240 --> 00:10:28.440 touch with Bud Herbert for all the lawn equipment you need. 230 00:10:28.480 --> 00:10:31.159 They have the best. They only carry world class brands 231 00:10:31.240 --> 00:10:35.799 John Deere. They got x Mark mower, Steel handa power equipment. 232 00:10:35.799 --> 00:10:38.080 That's where I got my professional level Honda push mower. 233 00:10:38.440 --> 00:10:40.759 Last one will ever have to buy. It's built that well, 234 00:10:40.799 --> 00:10:42.960 said the Herbert family. You will be working with a 235 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:45.159 Herbert family member so they're going to make sure you 236 00:10:45.200 --> 00:10:47.360 get the right piece of lawn equipment that you're looking for. 237 00:10:47.799 --> 00:10:50.399 There know everything there is to know about the equipment 238 00:10:50.440 --> 00:10:52.639 that they sell, delivered to your door, and they service 239 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:54.960 what they sell. You can't get that kind of service 240 00:10:55.000 --> 00:10:57.519 from a box store. And I had a terrible box 241 00:10:57.519 --> 00:11:00.200 store experience, which is why I'm so pleased that good 242 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.759 friend of mine steer me to Bud Herbert Motors, and 243 00:11:02.840 --> 00:11:04.519 that's why I'm blessed to be in a position to 244 00:11:04.519 --> 00:11:07.200 steer you to Bud Herbert Motors. Tell the Herbert family. 245 00:11:07.240 --> 00:11:09.080 Brian said, Hi, when you get in touch with him, 246 00:11:09.080 --> 00:11:10.799 you can do it two ways. Go to Bud Herbert 247 00:11:10.840 --> 00:11:14.960 Mootors dot com. Budherbertmotors dot com five four one thirty 248 00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:17.679 two ninety one Fifth Generation Family and An operated five 249 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:20.600 one three five four one thirty two ninety. 250 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:23.879 One fifty five KRC are your nineteenth fifty five per 251 00:11:23.960 --> 00:11:24.600 CD talk station. 252 00:11:24.639 --> 00:11:27.799 Brian Thomas Swift All Work Financials Brian James doing Monday Monday, 253 00:11:29.480 --> 00:11:32.240 continuing our discussion a little bit about futures here. I 254 00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:34.679 just pulled up the Wall Street Journal's web page and 255 00:11:35.080 --> 00:11:38.480 DALs down about zero point sixty seven. Future wise, it 256 00:11:38.519 --> 00:11:41.440 looks like one point down for SMP five hundred NASDAK 257 00:11:41.480 --> 00:11:44.320 about almost a point and a half. And the headline 258 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:48.000 upper left hand corner global stocks slump as concerns mount 259 00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:49.200 over US tariffs. 260 00:11:49.200 --> 00:11:54.519 Brian was he not there anymore? 261 00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:58.080 I don't see his little photograph in the in the 262 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:09.600 pickup or the box there, Joe, Okay, he's not there. 263 00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:13.080 He disappeared, Brian James went running and hiding. I don't 264 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:19.279 know what happened to him anyway. Apparently US savings rates 265 00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:22.159 wrote in Rose in February, for the second straight month, 266 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:26.440 Americans rebuilding their rainy day funds after the holiday shopping season. 267 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:29.240 It's the article that he provided me for my insight 268 00:12:29.360 --> 00:12:33.039 in your edification. Savings rates jumped four point six percent 269 00:12:33.120 --> 00:12:35.159 last month from four point three in January and only 270 00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:37.720 three point three in December. They say a low savings 271 00:12:37.840 --> 00:12:41.399 rate usually means consumers would have to reduce spending at 272 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:44.759 some point to rebuild their savings, which slows the economy. 273 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:47.799 So the current savings rate below normal, but not excessively. 274 00:12:47.840 --> 00:12:49.799 So arranged from about five to six percent in a 275 00:12:49.840 --> 00:12:52.720 decade before the pandemic. So and I've always heard that 276 00:12:52.759 --> 00:12:54.919 you know, from a financial standing plan point, you know, 277 00:12:55.039 --> 00:12:57.799 try to sock away some money to cover you for 278 00:12:57.879 --> 00:12:59.960 the rainy day. You never know when it's going to hit. 279 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:01.919 I had a friend of mine just lost his job 280 00:13:01.960 --> 00:13:05.120 the other day. I think it was unanticipated, but it 281 00:13:05.159 --> 00:13:08.240 does happen. So making sure you have some money socked away, 282 00:13:09.000 --> 00:13:10.440 and I'm not sure the amount. One of the things 283 00:13:10.440 --> 00:13:13.279 I wanted to ask Brian was how many months worth 284 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:17.639 of daily savings or our money you should have socked 285 00:13:17.639 --> 00:13:22.720 away in that savings account. Anyhow is that him back again, Joe, 286 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:25.639 you're trying to get a hold of him, all right, Well, 287 00:13:25.639 --> 00:13:27.399 you kind of got me off guard. I know it's 288 00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:29.759 not your fault, Joe, because he just kind of disappeared 289 00:13:30.360 --> 00:13:35.240 but left me without a topic. So I thought we'd 290 00:13:35.279 --> 00:13:38.279 be filling up this half of an hour anyway. One 291 00:13:38.279 --> 00:13:39.879 thing I did when I get to since we were 292 00:13:39.879 --> 00:13:42.720 talking about Democrats and their policies and not seem to 293 00:13:42.720 --> 00:13:45.480 be able to articulate any strategy to deal with Republicans 294 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:47.840 other than scream and yell and pull their hair out 295 00:13:47.879 --> 00:13:50.840 over really things that don't make any sense. Kind of 296 00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:53.240 a theme this morning. On the heels of that ridiculous 297 00:13:53.279 --> 00:13:58.039 Tesla protest. Elon Musk isn't a fascist, it's definitionally, he's 298 00:13:58.080 --> 00:13:59.960 the polar opposite of it. Brian was talking about that 299 00:14:00.039 --> 00:14:04.279 reducing rules and regulations. That's what stagnates an economy. It 300 00:14:04.360 --> 00:14:06.840 slows it down. And those rules and regulations are telling 301 00:14:06.879 --> 00:14:09.720 you how to run your business. That's what fascists do. 302 00:14:10.960 --> 00:14:12.919 So when you've got an administration that's in there that's 303 00:14:12.960 --> 00:14:15.720 doing its best to get rid of the burden of 304 00:14:15.919 --> 00:14:19.120 ridiculous regulations, you are dealing with an administration that is 305 00:14:19.120 --> 00:14:23.320 the polar opposite of fascism. So get your definition straight 306 00:14:24.480 --> 00:14:26.480 and try to make some sense of why going after 307 00:14:26.799 --> 00:14:31.480 Elon Musk and Tesla's makes any sense whatsoever. I Brian 308 00:14:31.559 --> 00:14:34.320 you there. 309 00:14:34.360 --> 00:14:36.240 I was looking at you and hearing you the whole time, 310 00:14:36.320 --> 00:14:38.840 and we just got done talking about how great Zoom 311 00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:40.480 was and what a catalyst it was, and then here 312 00:14:40.519 --> 00:14:43.080 we go. So I think that I'll take the faulter jinxing. 313 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:45.879 Then I go, that's okay, I'm glad he came back. 314 00:14:45.919 --> 00:14:48.840 I just getting rid of launch into another discussion about 315 00:14:48.840 --> 00:14:51.840 the politics where we find ourselves. But as I was mentioned, 316 00:14:51.960 --> 00:14:53.759 thinking we were going to be talking about the global 317 00:14:53.799 --> 00:14:56.720 stock slump, concerns mount over US tariff. Just an update 318 00:14:56.759 --> 00:14:59.080 on the Wall Street Journal. Across the board, you know, 319 00:14:59.120 --> 00:15:02.519 futures are down. The worst down right now is NASDAC 320 00:15:02.559 --> 00:15:03.960 at one and a half, but the rest of them 321 00:15:04.000 --> 00:15:05.720 are down about a point, maybe a little bit under 322 00:15:05.799 --> 00:15:07.960 dal Jones Industrials this point seventy three. 323 00:15:08.399 --> 00:15:09.200 So this is just. 324 00:15:11.240 --> 00:15:15.200 Didn't they factor in the market already that these these 325 00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:16.279 terrifts are going to kick in? 326 00:15:16.360 --> 00:15:19.039 Brian, Yeah, and that's. 327 00:15:18.960 --> 00:15:22.159 Why we've seen the volatility. Remember, we get we're having lately, 328 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:25.360 we're having about two days of down one percent, you know, 329 00:15:25.799 --> 00:15:27.399 down one one and a half percent, and then we'll 330 00:15:27.440 --> 00:15:29.679 be down three percent, and then we get a chunk 331 00:15:29.720 --> 00:15:31.759 of it back because the market will decide that there's 332 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:34.080 something out there, some shiny object that it likes, and 333 00:15:34.159 --> 00:15:37.240 it'll bring it back. So we are anticipating these these 334 00:15:37.279 --> 00:15:39.679 tariffs kicking in, and then we are celebrating what it 335 00:15:39.720 --> 00:15:42.000 looks like they're not going to kick in tomorrow. At 336 00:15:42.120 --> 00:15:45.120 some level of this, Brian is going to be saber 337 00:15:45.240 --> 00:15:48.440 rattling because it is a negotiation tactic. Remember what Donald 338 00:15:48.480 --> 00:15:50.600 Trump thinks, he's the best in the world. At that's 339 00:15:50.639 --> 00:15:53.039 making a deal. So a lot of this is I'm 340 00:15:53.039 --> 00:15:54.919 going to do something terrible to you in a month 341 00:15:55.000 --> 00:15:57.000 unless you act the way that I want you to act. 342 00:15:57.159 --> 00:15:59.960 And in some cases he's getting some concessions there. Remember 343 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:02.440 our first, very first discussion about this, probably a month 344 00:16:02.440 --> 00:16:04.279 and a half ago, where the tariffs that they were 345 00:16:04.679 --> 00:16:08.080 going to levy against Canada that went away overnight, became 346 00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:10.960 something else as the negotiation continued. But the way he 347 00:16:11.080 --> 00:16:13.919 stated it at the very outset of the discussion is 348 00:16:14.000 --> 00:16:16.240 very different from what's happening now. So some of this 349 00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:19.480 is savior rattling by both sides. No country on the 350 00:16:19.519 --> 00:16:22.480 face of the earth can afford to completely seclude itself 351 00:16:22.519 --> 00:16:26.360 from the rest of the world. Now that every every 352 00:16:26.440 --> 00:16:30.399 company's customer base is the entire planet, So there won't 353 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:32.639 be any endgame of we are just going to take 354 00:16:32.639 --> 00:16:35.799 our ball and go home and only sell to American customers. 355 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:36.960 That is not possible. 356 00:16:37.120 --> 00:16:39.799 Right of one of my favorite movies, Casablanca, one of 357 00:16:39.799 --> 00:16:44.159 the lines isolationism is no longer a practical foreign policy, 358 00:16:44.200 --> 00:16:46.519 and I think that's certainly the case in matters of business, 359 00:16:47.000 --> 00:16:49.879 international business, and real quick I read the article in 360 00:16:49.919 --> 00:16:52.759 the savings rates have gone, people are like putting, you know, 361 00:16:52.799 --> 00:16:56.240 replenishing their savings accounts. As a financial planner, is there 362 00:16:56.279 --> 00:16:59.039 a certain and I don't mean a dollar figure, but 363 00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:02.559 based up on one's earnings and one's living expenses, is 364 00:17:02.559 --> 00:17:05.039 there a certain number of months worth of money that 365 00:17:05.200 --> 00:17:07.720 is recommended to sock away just in case? 366 00:17:09.519 --> 00:17:11.799 Yeah, And I think that's a great important discussion to have, 367 00:17:12.119 --> 00:17:15.599 And for people who are who lead really really simple 368 00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:17.839 lives and there's not a whole lot going on at 369 00:17:17.880 --> 00:17:20.680 the moment, I would a minimum of three months. I 370 00:17:20.680 --> 00:17:23.240 would say more like six months. If you've got kids 371 00:17:23.240 --> 00:17:25.359 and a mortgage in the mix, and you have two jobs, 372 00:17:25.400 --> 00:17:27.240 you know, two high paying jobs, that kind of thing, 373 00:17:27.400 --> 00:17:29.160 you might want to look at more like twelve months, 374 00:17:29.160 --> 00:17:32.640 because something crazy like that could have a significant amount 375 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:36.160 of impact on your situation. One thought I would throw 376 00:17:36.200 --> 00:17:39.839 out there. I believe personally the ideal savings rate is 377 00:17:39.960 --> 00:17:42.359 zero percent. The reason I say that is because it 378 00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:44.799 should have been planned for a long time ago, and 379 00:17:44.880 --> 00:17:47.160 if you've got that kind of money socked aside, you 380 00:17:47.160 --> 00:17:49.440 don't need to be putting more into it. So I 381 00:17:49.519 --> 00:17:52.240 have not changed my savings rate in probably two decades 382 00:17:52.279 --> 00:17:54.880 because we solved the emergency prone problem a while ago, 383 00:17:54.920 --> 00:17:56.880 and ever since then I focused on getting kids through 384 00:17:56.920 --> 00:17:59.359 college and our retirement and so forth. I don't believe 385 00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:02.000 you need to put cash into your savings account every 386 00:18:02.000 --> 00:18:05.640 single month. If you're already there, it's just piling more money. 387 00:18:05.480 --> 00:18:08.680 Aside, and it's not invested, I mean, other than bank 388 00:18:08.759 --> 00:18:10.799 interest rate, which we all know doesn't pay very much 389 00:18:10.799 --> 00:18:13.200 compared to what your yields might be in the market investment. 390 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:16.599 Exactly. I want to make sure people didn't hear me, 391 00:18:16.640 --> 00:18:18.200 did not just hear me say that you don't need 392 00:18:18.200 --> 00:18:21.759 an emergency point us to know what you need and 393 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:24.200 then know when you've accomplished a goal so that you 394 00:18:24.200 --> 00:18:25.359 can move on to the next goal. 395 00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:27.640 But that's if first order of business in terms of 396 00:18:27.720 --> 00:18:31.279 establishing a financial plan is to get that base amount 397 00:18:31.640 --> 00:18:34.400 socked away so you can then invest cam I write on. 398 00:18:34.440 --> 00:18:37.920 That that is the oil in the engine, because we 399 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:40.440 can do magic with the long term investments. But when 400 00:18:40.759 --> 00:18:44.079 the ship goes sideways, is it occasionally will you lose 401 00:18:44.119 --> 00:18:46.319