Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Monday. It's total basis, two
man show today, Brian Leonard. I gotta be honest as
someone that really likes driving around. If you follow me
during college basketball season, you know I get out on
the road. I think like this would be like a
deem dream day for me to be like in the
car with Tokyo Brandon just driving to the middle of
nowhere in Japan. That sounds awesome to me. That's where
TV is today, so we'll miss him. He'll be back tomorrow.
But your MLB go to MLB three Pick show right
here on the wager Talk YouTube channel will go on
as scheduled with myself and Brian Leonard. So it's Monday,
it's a little bit slower of a day. How is
your weekend, Brian.
Speaker 2: Well, it was good for my betting and for the clients.
It's been bad for me personally because my air conditioning
has been off all weekend. Oh geez, and can't get
anybody out here till today. So I've been sweating my
ass off. And we actually he'd been staying it one
of our local casinos out here in the sun Coast
and they've got a great sports book over there, so
we spent the day there yesterday, and you know, I
know Tokyo Brandon likes to talk about music. We went
to see Rick Springfield last night in Henderson, and he's
gonna be seventy six years old next month. Puts on
a hell of a show. He's at his age. He
and Mick Jagger are the only two guys I've ever
seen in that age group that can just run around,
run around, run around, and he still sounds great. It
was a really nice show. It's called back to the
eighties or whatever. So John Waite and Wang Chung and
Paul Young. Paul Young's not so Paul Young anymore. But yeah,
it was a nice show and it didn't cost a
whole lot. Nice night out with the family.
Speaker 3: Now, that's that's Jesse's girl, right, Rich spring Listen.
Speaker 1: I grew up listening to mostly my parents' music. So
I was born in nineteen eighty six. People think I'm
much younger than I am. I'll be forty next year.
Someone in the chat was like, just shocked at that.
I got the baby face. But yeah, I was born
in eighty six, and I mostly grew up listening to
music from the seventies and the eighties, which is why
I'm such a big Billy Joel fan. And I actually
took eleven years of piano lessons because of Billy Joel,
and haven't. I don't think I've tried to sit down
at the piano since I was about sixteen years old,
So that's too bad. I wish I like kept on
that later in life. Would be cool to still be
able to play, but anyway. Would also be cool is
if we can find some winners today, Brian, I feel
like there's gonna be a theme in a couple of
these plays, and the theme is gonna be teams playing
well in spite of management wishing they didn't play as
good as they were playing. Okay, that's the theme that
comes up this time of year every single year. It's
who's gonna Who's gonna spite there the front office? Right,
And one of the teams starting to do that is
the Minnesota Twins. Okay, the Minnesota Twins. We're not that
far out of it. Okay, I mean they were out,
they were you know, I mean, it wasn't looking great
for them, but they certainly weren't like if you go
back twenty years, you know they're still trying to win
baseball games.
Speaker 3: What were they six games back?
Speaker 1: And they they made a historic number of moves at
the trade deadline, selling pieces off. On top of that,
they're leaving guys like Mick Abel. Why is mcabel at
Triple A? Why is he still at Triple A? Second
great start for Able at Triple A, Yester, not as
good as the first one, but still, you know, they're
leaving guys at Triple A that would probably help them
at the big league level right now? And but what
do they do? They walk off the Royals yesterday take
two of three. Before that, they took two of three
from the Tigers. You were totally right about Luke keshel
By the way. I gotta shout you out because I
think before he even played a big league game, you
said he might be the best player in their organization,
and he is fantastic, Brian, They're going to Yankee Stadium tonight.
Suddenly these are kind of meaningful. So how are you
seeing the Twins? And is this the team you want
to bet on?
Speaker 2: It?
Speaker 3: All right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I listened to a about an hour an hour
and a half long podcast as much as I can
with some Minnesota Twins podcasters and the writers. I think
they worked for the work for either the newspaper or
work for the team. But yeah, they had a nice
breakdown this week about what's going on in Minnesota. And
you mentioned Kishel. He is, he's a young guy, he's
playing hot, and he's a spark for this team and
they just got him back and he has been terrific Minnesota.
You know, they didn't trade away their hitters for the
most part, other than Korea, who I didn't think was
very good anyway at this point in his career. So
they've got some pretty good hitters on this team in
the future. It was it was the bullpen that they
traded away everybody, and that was really the strength of
the team for a few years now. But they seem
to have weathered it a little bit and they got
Zebbie Matthews going on the mount today against Will Warren.
Warren's about a one seventy five favorite total of nine
to the under, eight and a half to the over.
And you're right, this is the team now starting to
believe in themselves. I thought I was going to be
baiting Minnesota on a regular basis after the trade deadline
and we had success doing that for the first few games.
But lately they're playing very well. As you pointed out
going against the Yankees, who found another way to lose yesterday.
They are just not playing well. They're making minor league
mistakes defensively, throwing to the wrong base, getting caught and
run downs. There's never been a very fundamental team. I
don't like the manager. I've never liked Boone. I think
he should be fired. I don't you know. I'm not
Tokyo Brandon that jumps off the handle on on a
lot of these things. But I think we've seen enough
out of him, and they've got more talent than what
they should with their record. Granted, the starting rotation has
been a problem this year. They've had some injuries, but
they just get heel back, and he's not the greatest
pitcher in the world, but he gives you some innings
being cut down on the walk, so it's going to help.
But he consider the continue to throw Williams out there.
He threw him out in the sixth inning yesterday, I
believe it was and he did not pitch well. Again,
when you can you count, can you just cut the guy?
I don't know he's going to be free agent. I
guess they don't want to do that in case they
want to try to sign him, or maybe maybe something happens.
But yeah, there, you've got to have some balls to
play the Yankees right now. And the only problem is
Zebbie Matthews is a guy I really like, but he's
been very inconsistent. He was He's been pretty good. When
he's good, he's good. When he's bad, he's bad. He's
a flyball pitcher four teen percent ground ball or fourteen
percent of ground ball, right and this is not a
very good stadium to play in if you are a
fly ball pitcher. Comes in with a five point one
seven e RA, but is expected the RA is three
point eighty five. His whip is really high, one point
three eight. In fact, in his two seasons it's a
one point five to one. It doesn't walk a lot
of batters, only six percent of the batter as he walks.
Strike out rate twenty eight point nine, which give him
a twenty two point nine, which is excellent, but these
had some problems. Barrel rate thirty three percent. Overall, I
like him, but he's just like a lot of young pitchers.
He's very inconsistent. Speaking of young pitchers, we get the
same thing out of Will Warren here. One day looks great,
next day looks terrible. In his stetcast page shows that
four point four to four ERA four point one zero
expected one point four to two whip after a one
point nine whip in limited action last year. Uh, he's
got great extension in the eighty second percentile, stretch percent
in the seventy sixth but ex average ex velocity twelve percentile,
chaser eight tenth, walk grade sixteenth, hard hit rate sixteenth.
So we've got two pitchers here that can be hit.
And the Yankees right now, the Yankees lineup is better
than it has been for a while now that they've
got you know, they got Stanton back, they've got judged
back now. And so the first thing I look at
on this game would probably be the over. It opened
eight and a half twenty. Now it's at nine under
twenty at most places. If you can get that eight
and a half twenty, and there's you know, if you're
if you haven't got kicked out yet. ESPN bet has
eight and a half over twenty. Uh. Circa here in
Vegas eight and a half over twenties in Caesars eight
and half twenty five, So that would be the way
I would look here. I still like the offenses here,
Questions about the pitching staff, especially the Minnesota bullpen. They've
been on borrowed time, I believe, But that's the way
I would look at this one. And the Yankees got
to turn it around. It's gonna have any chance to
make the playoffs. I think us and the fans of
the show are rooting against that for the most part,
because admit some pretty good bets on not to make
the playoffs for the Yankees.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you've sort of nailed this game. I'm
just going to try to play off a lot of
the points you made. So first thing, well City by
the base, is how does Boon still have a job?
Speaker 3: Listen, I was sympathetic toward his situation.
Speaker 1: I would say, like maybe two years ago, because I
do think there's a lot that goes into being the
Yankees manager that maybe we don't really understand as just fans,
and it's a I think for the most part, he's
done a job that sort of like at least earned
him the right to stay around for a little bit.
That being said, I started to realize like this last
year watching now, remember the Yankees are still our local
team here in Central New York, So I end up
watching a lot of Yankee games just because right like
they're they're always on if I'm if I'm not at
home and with all the games and I'm over at
the in laws out like it's such.
Speaker 3: The easiest game to turn on.
Speaker 1: Last year they started making a lot of these mistakes.
But last year's team was a lot better, right that.
Last year's team was so much better than this year's team.
Last year's team had Wan Soto and he was good
Wan Sodo, right, like you really it. It's crazy how
much better they were last year than this year. But
it's like they got away with playing bad baseball last
year because the caliber the team was just so much better.
They could overcome a stupid error, a base running mistake.
They just overcame it with being the best, one of
the best teams in the league.
Speaker 3: This year, they're just not that.
Speaker 1: And it also they overcame like they would get to
the eighth the ninth.
Speaker 3: Inning and it was just nails.
Speaker 1: It was Luke Weaver, it was you know, they they
had they would just lock it down. No problem. This
year hasn't been that. You talk about Devin Williams. You
said this last week, Brian, they got to send him
to the miners. Let him go back to the minors
for like three weeks and just figure some stuff out.
Because really, if you're the Yankees, you you need Devin
Williams back in like September, right like you can get
you can you can live life without him for like
three weeks. You gotta get him back and have him
be productive in September. I'm not saying he's got to
be your closer, but he's got to give you like
a good inning and like the sixth or seventh inning
that is that is just just another example of the
Yankees going in the total wrong direction. On the other side,
I love Zebbie Matthews. So this is where this is
where watching baseball matters, like and and listen, like I'll
probably get in trouble for saying this, but like I
can't stand when I hear like the crowd that it's like, oh,
like I don't even watch the games or it's just
like all you know, it's like, well it's just the numbers.
I mean, we have people let sell picks on the
site that that don't watch baseball games, and like, I'll
just call like it's that's crazy to me because there's
so much more than just the numbers that goes into it.
And I feel like Zebi Matthews is a perfect example
of that. You see the numbers, Yeah, the numbers at
the big league level are not great, but if you've
been watching this guy. I've been watching this guy since
last year. I watched him fly through the Twins minor
league organization because all he could do was throw strikes.
Speaker 3: Guy didn't know how to throw a ball.
Speaker 1: And then he got to the big league level last
year and and sort of learned quickly that you can't
just throw strikes in the big leagues, right Like, you
can't just have all of your pitches be in the
zone all of the time. This year, he's actually been
much better at that. But he's but he's battled some injuries.
He's had to work around some injuries. He s had
to work around having time off, shutting it down and
then sort of getting going again, which is a whole
nother battle, right like that, that's just a whole nother
sort of battle to have to do that, and that
in the middle of the season because he wasn't hurt
coming into the season.
Speaker 3: He got hurt, had to come back.
Speaker 1: So now if I get him like post All Star
break where he's had some time to come back Nationals.
Six innings of shut out ball, seven strikeouts, no walks,
Well that's obvious, no walks. The guy just he's allergic
to throwing balls. I mean he literally throws everything in
the zone. The Red Sox got to him a little bit. Well,
the Red Sox are hotter than any team on the
planet right now, or during that run July thirtieth, it
was like the start of the Red Sox hitting anything
and everything.
Speaker 3: So I'll give him a pass.
Speaker 1: Their last time out, Tiger's five innings, one run, six strikeouts,
one walk. So this is a guy where it's like
you're not gonna you're not gonna get the full sort
of rub by just looking at the numbers or having
not seen him pitch. If you've seen this guy pitch,
he's got a lot of plus stuff. There's a lot
of reason to think that he could.
Speaker 3: Be pretty good.
Speaker 1: Will Warren like he's got some upside, But again I
was almost argue he's been more inconsistent than Matthews, and
he has less upside to be like a really, really
good major league starter. I think he could hang around
in this fifth starter role for a while, maybe on
a different team. But let's be honest. If the Eighties
were full strength.
Speaker 3: They're not. You know, they're not having Will Warren as
the fifth starter. So I like the Twins.
Speaker 1: I would have probably played this if it was if
I could get Twins plus one and a half at
a playable price. But for now, I like the Twins
on the money line, so that that's the play here.
I don't know if that'll be like my parlay leg,
but we're only gonna have a two teamer today, so
the price point is appealing for the parlay.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I really like the Twins.
Speaker 2: I'll point out about Boone the thing that really bothers me,
and he got thrown out a game again yesterday, fifth
time this season. How do you get thrown out of
five games when you can't argue ball and strikes, balls
and strokes. He wins too much. He's a cry baby. Sorry.
The Boone families had a lot of success in Major
League baseball, but nothing irritates me more than having that
and it got a veteran team, you don't need to
fire up your team. If you've got a lot of
young kids on team, yes, you go out, you kick
the base as you throw, you know, the whole Earl
waiver shit. But if you've got a veteran team and
your manager is making a fool out of himself all
the time out there commenting about everything, that's a negative
to me. I I think the Yankees need to make
a chance.
Speaker 3: All right, Tom, it's bo. Thanks for joining.
Speaker 1: I don't know if we've pulled one of your comments
up before, so very much appreciate you interacting as always,
please like subscribe and Brian, I have to get this
out real quick.
Speaker 3: I have I have a five percent play.
Speaker 1: I'm like twelve and three in my last fifteen games,
and if I don't promote the shit out of it,
I'm gonna get in trouble. I've already been told. So
if you take away one thing from this shows that
you should watch baseball. If you take away a second thing,
it's that I have a five percent play tonight.
Speaker 3: Those are the two. You have to take those things
away and then anything else you pick up. Uh, you
know that's that's great. That's bonus. But I gotta I
gotta get that out there.
Speaker 1: Uh it's a spot that I really do love and
who knows, we may or may not hit it on
the show, but I'm not going to tell you if
we do.
Speaker 3: So there you go, keep firing games in the chat.
Speaker 1: I want to go to Thomas bow here because this
is example two of I mean, the Pirates front office
has been working against them since the beginning of the year.
They didn't just decide to like work against them at
the trade deadline. They Again, I don't want to go
off on a tangent with this, but it's like a
generational talent fell in your lap. In Paul skeins, you
should be you should be borrowing money from the Steelers
if you have to be, like we got to get
any we had, like this is like our one chance,
Like we have to put anything we possibly can around
this guy while he's still in Pittsburgh because rest assured
when he's a free agent, he's not going to re
sign here, because why would he. But yet they continue
to do things that are not consistent with trying to
win now, which in my opinion, is crazy. That being said,
since July twenty first, Brian, they are eating want let
me just make sure I got this right. Ten twelve
looks like they're they're twelve and seven.
Speaker 3: That's not bad. Twelve and seven.
Speaker 1: Since July twenty first, since that sweep of the Tigers,
and even this weekend, I watched a lot of that
series they played. They played good ball to split with
a Reds team that very much needed probably to take
three or four in that series. And the Pirates I thought,
played really, you know, solid baseball for the most part.
This Sea this weekend lost. They won the first two
games of the series. They lose two to one on Saturday.
They even made a little bid to come back Yesterday,
they end up losing fourteen to eight. Thomas says, the
Brewers are going to lose at some point. I mean
that you think they would, right, They just came thought
they were gonna lose yesterday, and somehow they walk it
off against the Mets.
Speaker 3: So they're red hot. My question to you is is
this the letdown spot?
Speaker 1: Is this where the Brewers maybe drop one, because that's
a big price if you like the Pirates.
Speaker 2: This to me is the most entering game on the card.
I've got a couple lefties handy going against Quintana currentine
Quatana is about that one two dollars and eight and
a half to the total over about one twenty. Yeah,
I Pittsburgh has been playing some pretty good, pretty good baseball.
They make mistakes, they're a younger team, but you have
to think that things are looking up in Pittsburgh if
you could just get the man, get the staffs or
management to spend a little bit of money. They're still
throwing out Andrew Haney. We all thought he would be
traded over the over the break, he was not. Four
point seven to seven e r a five point four
to two expected one point twenty seven whip. He's had
some good starts this year, but overall he's French Major
league pitcher Andrew Haney. If you take a look at
the stack cast page, his best thing he does is
basically he's in the sixty third percentile on the walk
rate seven point four percent walks, which is about one
below the league average. And that's the best thing. Chase right,
maybe you know fifty eight percent about average or whatever,
but so much blue on his stack gass page expected
era eighth percentile expected bating the average sixth fastball velocity
fifth with rate fourteenth, strikeout rate seventh or twelfth, barrel
rate seventeenth, hardhit rate twentieth, grand ball rate twenty second.
He is not a very good pitcher. Now. He is
a veteran. He's been around for twelve seasons. He's pitched
two hundred twenty six games in his career. These older
guys know what they're doing, and he's gonna be facing
another older guy on today's card. But the other older
guy in Jose Quintana, is a much better pitcher. He's
been around fourteen seasons, three point seventy three career ERA
this year three point five to seven, four point seventy
nine on the expected But you know, if you take
a look, and I've probably said this before the last
four years, he's outperformed as expected ERA, So that's not
something to you know, go crazy about. But most of
his stuff on the stackcast page is also in the
blue basketball velocity six percentile with right fourth percentile. But
he doesn't throw us forcinger very often. He doesn't have
a great force singer. He only throws at eleven percent
of the time. He's mostly a sinker change guy, and
he's had success he knows how to win. He's got
one hundred and eleven wins in his career, and that's
that's not bad, especially for a guy that is really
just an afterthought. Nobody really wanted him. And he's back
up in the in the majors, and now Milwaukee's starting
to get some of their younger starters healthy again, and
so who knows how long he's going to be in
this rotation, But while he's in there, he's a guy
I like to bet on. Now, the question you have
to ask here is is this obvious that doown spot? Well?
We saw the same thing when they swept the Dodgers
after the All Star break. They came back out and
played very well after that. The way they won yesterday,
you would have to think they played the Mets. The
Mets was a big deal, and they swept the Mets,
winning some games they probably shouldn't have won. But that's
because the Mets are a team of higher priced guys
that just fundamentally they're not very good. They were in
a nice pitcher's park. I like the lineup for the Mets.
I'd like, you know, the bullpen. They've corrected that a
little bit. Mets are a really good team. But I've
just said they're a really good bunch of rick a
bunch of players, because as a team, Milwaukee play is
better baseball than anybody out there in Major League Baseball
this year. Yes, you're laying two to one on Quitana.
You're not going to find many times in his career
that he's been a two to one favorite. But I
don't want any part of Hanny Hani. If you take
a look at his starts going back, she's like his
last day starts. He's only had one start where he's
gone five innings. So I know TV is not here,
and I know the line would be pretty high, but
if you could find a Hani not to get the win,
that seems pretty nice to me, because I don't the
way Milwaukee is hitting, I don't think he's going to
last very long in this game, and they're gonna have
to go to the bullpen. So rather than laying the
two dollars on Milwaukee, I'd rather lay four dollars that
he doesn't get the doesn't get the win, but yeah,
we'll have to. You know, Milwaukee's just playing so much
heart right now. They don't care. They're just going out
and now they've got a big lead in the division.
They don't care. They're playing great ball. I'm not fading him,
I'll tell you that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean so I'll just be honest, Like I
make my first pass through the games, and you know,
Pirates one and plus one and a half staring me
right in the face. It's a it's the setup that
I I typically would go for.
Speaker 3: Price point I typically would go for.
Speaker 1: But the problem is, I'm just not sure I want
Andrew Haney here, Like it's he there's there's I almost
feel like a lot of the stuff.
Speaker 3: So I feel like.
Speaker 1: If you bet the piratesier, you're going you're pretty much
betting on the Brewers just having a letdown, right, Like,
I really think that's the main basis of your bet.
And the reason I say that is like the Brewers
hit left handed pitching. I mean they're they're eighth in
the league WRC plus against lefties. So you can't really
make the case that the Brewers don't hit lefties, because
they do. And Andrew Haney is not a very good
left handed pitcher. So again, right there, I know he's
got I know he's been able to navigate like a
like somehow We're in mid August and he's still got
like a semi respectable season resume, But I would I
wouldn't classify him as even a good left handed pitcher.
I think I think serviceable for a team that's out
of it is probably the best sort of way to
describe Andrew Haney at this point.
Speaker 3: The other problem I have is, you know, the Pirates.
Speaker 1: Yes, they've won some games, and they and they've generated
some offense, but they don't hit left handed pitching either.
So even though Quentin Kintana is someone that I think
might be trending in the maybe like the slightly wrong direction,
right now, I just don't know if the Pirates is
the team I want to I want to, you know,
sort of oppose him with because they haven't really hit
left these all year.
Speaker 3: Now, what could change that for me?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep an eye on what the Pirates are
gonna do with their roster today.
Speaker 3: Mondays are a day they tend to shuffle it up.
Speaker 1: They've got three guys in the miners right now that
probably should be on the big league team.
Speaker 3: I don't understand it.
Speaker 1: It's very Twins esque where it's almost like like I
got an argument on Pirates Twitter yesterday. I don't I
don't know why I'm arguing with Pirates fans on Twitter,
But like Cam Devaney was the guy that you traded
Adam Fraser for.
Speaker 3: He's twenty eight years old.
Speaker 1: He's never he's never been in the big leagues, probably
because he wasn't like a super highly touted draft pick.
Speaker 3: Okay, he was like a fifteenth sixteenth rounder.
Speaker 1: I believe he went to Elon and he's never gotten
a chance in the big leagues. The reason he's never
gotten a chant or the reason he didn't get a
chance this year is he was in the Royals organization.
He's a shortstop, so he's behind Bobby wit So it's like,
what are you? Where are you gonna find room for him?
The second the Pirates traded for him, I was like,
oh my god, this is no brainer. He goes right
to the big league team because he was having a
great season for Omaha. And what do they do? They
put him down at Triple A. The guy is a
nine to ten ops at Triple A this year. He's
never gotten a chance in the big leagues. The Pirates
are still running like James Triolo out, Who's I think
badding like one night. Okay, So it's like they literally
can improve their team, and there's like Nick Solax having
a very good season at Triple A A. Well, they
can improve their team by just calling a couple guys up.
Why they refuse to do it is things that keep
me up at night, Brian, I just don't understand what
we're doing not not having certain guys on the roster,
so you know that would make them better against right
handed pitching or I'm sorry against left handed pitching. If
you call up de Vany maybe maybe so lack Like,
there's guys that would make you better in your own
organization against left handed pitching. So I'm gonna watch and
see what the Pirates do today. I do lean their
way plus one and a half. I think that's a
nice number to get him at minus one fifteen. But
they need to like do a couple things, maybe bring
a fresh reliever or two up because they've got a
couple good relievers down there as well. Again, doesn't make
any sense, but I'm not just gonna just say, oh,
this is like the spot where the Brewers are due
to play bad, and so let me bet the Pirates.
Speaker 3: Even though I lean their way go ahead.
Speaker 2: I've got two comments. First of all, I believe yesterday
was the final deal with bringing up minor leaguers the
time that they they can bring them up now. So
if anybody's gonna bring up the minor leaguers, they can
bring them up now. Really with no penalty. They can
still be rookie eligible next year. But I want to
get back to the Brewers. Excuse me, they can out
of the All Star Break, they played the Dodgers. They
swept the Dodgers, freed enough three games to nothing. Then
you would think, Okay, it's a letdown. They're playing an
American League team that was Seattle. They shut them off
six to nothing in that game. Then after that, let
they play a lesser team Miami before playing the Cubs.
That's the big that's the big team deal right now
with the Brewers. They take two out of three out
of the Cubs, and then they face Washington and Atlanta,
two teams out of the playoff race, nothing to play for,
and they swept them six games to zero. Then they
get the big deal, the big deal with the Mets,
the team that they may have to play in the playoff,
so if they get there, they sweep the Mets. Now
they're playing Pittsburgh, then they play Cincinnati and Chicago. So
if there is a letdown, it will be in this
series against Pittsburgh. But if they didn't let down before
after sweeping the Dodgers, and they didn't let down before
after taking two out of three from Chicago, why would
you expect them to have a letdown here against this
Pittsburgh team. Cincinnati's on deck, a team fighting for the playoffs,
but then they play Chicago in a huge series. They've
got five games against Chicago August eighteenth through the twenty first.
That could be the season. If they don't have a
letdown against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and then they could take
two out of those five against Chicago, this will be
your division champion. And so I think this team right
now is not going to let down. I like Milwaukee
in this game. Don't want to lay the two to one.
There's probably other ways to bet into it. I'll have
to look at that. And you know, the one thing
I like today is all the games are on the
evening card, the first ones at six' ten, eastern so
we got plenty of time to look at the. Lineup
so we got to look at who's going to be
pitching and if there's any moves because of that minor league,
situation we'll see those.
Speaker 1: Today funny comment from the from the comments on the
YouTube show On, friday and again we read them. All
so we really appreciate you guys jumping in the, comments
getting in there interacting with the, show because it helps
the show, tremendously and it actually is, like it's it's
fun to interact with you guys. SOMETIMES i, mean there's
some some handicappers that watch this show putting some great
stuff in those. Comments but the funny one THAT i
wanted to make SURE i address on this. Show someone's,
like why do you call the show total? Bases you
never talk about? Props AND i was, LIKE i was,
like you, know that is kind of. FUNNY i came
up with the name total bases BECAUSE i so here's
here's the story real quick about why we call the
show total basis because WHEN i had the idea for the,
SHOW i DIDN'T i thought it was just gonna be
me And Tokyo brand and doing the. Show AND i was, like,
well total bases is a baseball, term and if it's
if it's me And tokyo if it's My tokyo, brand
and AN i for The english crowds that because The
english grammar crowd was here On, Friday, Tokyo brandon AND
i doing the, show we're probably gonna talk ABOUT NPB
kbo and SO i was, like, oh total, basis we're
gonna talk about. Everything but it was a funny comic because,
yeah we don't talk props really at. All and that's
really just BECAUSE i think all of us are more.
Tradition we've all been doing this a long, Time LIKE
i started, THIS i mean you and, Too, Tokyo brandon.
Speaker 3: And brian have been at this much longer THAN i.
Speaker 1: Have But I've i've really been been doing this professionally
in some settings since like twenty, ten and it was
props really weren't like a huge thing back then in
terms of like the availability of, it SO i never
really got into the prop.
Speaker 3: Stuff, However i'm gonna give you one. Today. Now this
is a total show in the.
Speaker 1: Dark i've heard nothing about, this but if the pirates
were to call Up candevany today and because it's It's,
monday And brian just made a great point about it
being like the time where they might be able to
do it and not kill his rookie. Status let's just
Say candevany gets called up today and he's starting at.
Shortstop he has been raking left handed. Pitching he's been
raking everything at the minor league. Level, again ops is
like nine to. Ten he he'd have a v WHAT
i would consider a very favorable matchup Against kintana because
he's a right handed hitter against the. LEFTY i would
scour for his, props which the books will have no
idea how to, Price they'll have no, clue and play
them all every which way over THE i, mean he
just he was like three for four On. Saturday he's
locked in right, now and you will probably get prices
On candavany props that are like just totally books have no.
Speaker 3: Clue so there is my best bet for The pirates.
Speaker 1: Game if you See candevany in the lineup for any,
reason better all the props.
Speaker 2: Over, okay moving on one dot. Com it's not about this,
game but something you talked. ABOUT i had this conversation
yesterday with the people at the concert line With WHEN
i was growing, up it was you AND. I now
all the young kids say me and you or me
And bob or, whatever it's correct to say you AND?
I is that? Right from a nice?
Speaker 3: YEAH i always. YES i always think it's.
Speaker 1: Again it's been a, while uh SINCE i was Taking
english and writing classes At, sianna BUT i think that is.
Speaker 2: Correct if, anybody IF i enter the, comments if you,
yeahs the grammar pro grammar police are, watching the grammar
police are, watching so we.
Speaker 3: Yeah if you want to let us, Know, uh let
us know for?
Speaker 1: Sure all, Right, uh let's move on city by the
Basis phillies plus one and a half all. Day i'm
not a Big Taiwan walker, Guy, brian BUT i. Was
it was jarring to see The phillies as an underdog
in this game WHEN i pulled the WHEN i pulled
everything up this, morning BEFORE i knew the, NUMBER i
was not expecting to see The phillies as like a
plus one oh five plus one ten?
Speaker 3: Dog did? That being?
Speaker 1: Said are you trying to go Against Andrew abbit? Here
or are you taking the are you taking the? Plus
are you taking the? Rets how are you looking at this?
Speaker 2: One? YEAH i thought the same. THING i Know walker
by name has not been very, good but he's having
a really good season for. Himself abbot going For Cincinnati
abbit about a one twenty favorite one twenty, two maybe
nine and a half on the. TOTAL i thought the
same thing WHEN i started this AND i started looking into.
It tom On walker comes in with a three point
five three E ra expect a little higher four point
two one whip one point. Three, uh he's, nothing does nothing.
Outstanding his struggles with the whiff rate eighth, percentile struck
out rate eighteenth, percentile fastball velosty ninth teenth. Percentile but
he only throws his fourth semer ten percent of the.
Time so that's WHAT i. Like if you don't have
a great fourth, seamer you got to use it, sparingly
and he. Does his extension is not very. Good he's
six foot, Four he's in the thirteenth. Percentile he must
land straight up as opposed to fully extending towards the.
BATTER i would think The philadelphia would have wanted to
try to teach that a little bit. Better BUT i
think he could have a better success with. That BUT
i was looking At, abbot and every Time i'm looking
to buy On, abbot it's one of those games that
he seems to pop up and struggle eight and two
on the, season two point three four era a three
point four to nine expected one point one to three.
Whip his ground bow rate AND i mentioned this many
Times bechally In, cincinnati great home run. Park it's only
the seventh, percentile and yet he seems to avoid these home.
Runs fastball velocity only in the twenty second, percentile and
he throws the fastball forty seven percent of the. Time
those two things would point to a guy you want to.
Fade but he is hard hit rate against nine Averag
jackson velocity eighty second. Percent he does something that keeps
a lot of people off. Balance And i've, look there's
a lot of guys that follow that really follow. Pitching,
uh they're very, good and they try to break it
down a little. Bit and somebody the Other dave was
mentioning some things because he he if you follow, this
he should not be having any success he. Has that,
said he's a GUY i normally would try to play.
Against BUT i went back and look this year he's
only the most earned runs he's allowed in any game is.
Four every time he has allowed four, runs he's come
back the next, game either thrown a shout, out twice
or gave up one run. Once so he's a guy
that really puts it all together after a bad. Outing
so that takes me off Of philadelphia. Here to, me
he's clearly the results are clearly shown he's the better.
Pitcher cincinnati's not as good As philadelphia. Is but is
this a letdown For? Philadelphia they're just coming off a
big series. Themselves i'm gonna sit back and watch this,
one try to learn a little.
Speaker 1: Bit, yeah there was a there was a lot of
conflicting stuff for me in this game AS i started
to really dig into. It So city by The, bay
LIKE i, agree just at my first glance in this,
GAME i was surprised That phillies were an.
Speaker 3: Underdog but AS i sort of you, know And.
Speaker 1: I've Even i've made it, known you, know that's actually
Something i'll take the l on, That. BRIAN i Thought
Tawan walker was going to be serving up batting practice
this year in this, fit and he's actually not only
has he hung around in The phillies, rotation he's actually
been pretty. Solid like all things, considered he has not
had a bad, season AND i was just sort of
downright wrong on him to this. Point, now DO i
think that means he doesn't get tagged a little bit going.
Forward this is certainly a spot where it could. Happen
you've talked about this sort of ad nauseum on the,
show Like Great American ballpark being very.
Speaker 3: Hitter, friendly long ball.
Speaker 1: Friendly so it's, like you, know this is probably not
the best sort of setup for him to have to
continue the success that he's. Had the sub for E
er like stuff like. THAT i could see him giving
up a few, runs but you, know he's been pretty good.
Now the things that sort of started to take me
off The phillies was one bullpen got used up quite
a bit this. Weekend they won all three games In,
texas so probably not going to Have it's not that they.
Speaker 3: Won't have their best bullpen, arms but the bullpen is pretty.
Tight it's going to be tired.
Speaker 1: Again and then again you go back to being in
a in a park that is definitely hit or, friendly
not super favorable for The. Phillies and then the other
thing that sort of took me off The phillies is
the fact that their lineup is not optimal against left handed,
pitching and by all, accounts this is a very good
left handed, Pitcher so, yeah did he did he not
have maybe not have his best stuff last time out
against The, cubs but he still went into the seventh
inning only you, know, yeah he gave up four, runs
gave up seven, hits but he he was an. Out
he was like a pitch away from getting, out getting through.
Seven so six and two, thirds in my, opinion that's
just as that that's a very very you, know. Decent
that's a very very good start against a solid. Opponent
SO i don't really want The phillies Against abbit because
this is the type of pitcher that that should be
able to give this lineup some. Trouble so AGAIN I
I i kind of don't really know what to do
with this one BECAUSE i don't really know how to
make a case for the. Total you have an inflated,
number BUT i actually could see some runs because it's
still The phillies and so if they don't come from
The reds Bombing walker or getting to The phillies, bullpen,
like Is abbott just gonna totally wipe The phillies.
Speaker 3: Out probably, not but it's a big.
Speaker 1: Number SO i don't have much to offer there other
than just like a.
Speaker 2: Breakdown, YEAH i want to touch on a couple of
things you mentioned the lefty righty's For. Philadelphia the lefty
hitters which who will not likely play today Are Brandon,
Marsh Max, Kupler bryce And. Stott the three guys who
will likely take their Place Otto, Kemp Weston wilson And Harrison.
Vader so the guys coming in are not, great but
the guys that are replacing are not the greatest, either
Especially stott who's having a down. Season he's A vegas.
KID i root for, him but he's not having that
great of a. Season and these are all guys that
are in the bottom of the bat and. Order as
for the, bullpen they are in major problems in the.
Bullpen Duran is pitched back to back. Games kirker and
has pitched two out of, Three Matt strom has pitched three.
Straight Tanner banks has pitched the last two. Days Brought
David robertson back up to the. Managers he'd been In TRIPLE.
A they were let, him letting him after they signed.
Him they were giving him some innings in the. Minors
but he is back and he hasn't pitched in the major.
Yet and the other, guys you, Know Jordan, Romano Matt,
Laser Max, lazer And Joe ross will be, available and
those are probably the guys you were going to see
in the back end of this bullpen in this. One
so if you do Like, philadelphia maybe the first five
would be the better way to.
Speaker 1: Go all, Right i'm scanning the. Chat they're saying the,
date the call up date Is august. Fourteen but still
if you were to see him in there, Anyway i'm
not gonna Get i'm not gonna go get.
Speaker 3: Back down that rabbit.
Speaker 1: Hole BUT i did see a couple of, people and
the chat is very very confident that it's you AND.
Speaker 3: I the chat is very.
Speaker 4: Common we have an intelligent chat compared to some very
comment that it's you AND. I and that's WHAT i
thought as. Well So i'm glad we Cleared glad we
cleared that. Up all, right this one's popping off in the.
Chat Will will says he loves The.
Speaker 1: Red sox here AND i see a lot of people
bringing this game, up SO i, figured and this is
also kind of a big, game so let's let's make
sure we hit this. One the these two teams just
played In fenway like a week ago or a couple
maybe maybe ten days, ago and it was a total.
Wipeout Red sox just slapped The astros around in that.
SERIES i believe it was one of the first, Series
brian where The astros had their their sort of new
complement of. PLAYERS i believe it was the series right
after the trade deadline when they were sort of getting
guys into the, lineup and they played. Terrible they played
absolutely terrible that whole. WEEKEND i got caught with my
hand in the cookie jar trying to play The astros
once that weekend and it was a blowout. Loss then since,
then the, uh they've looked a little bit, BETTER i.
Want i'm not gonna go as far as to say
they've they've like they are convincing me that they're like
significantly better than they were pre, deadline but let's give
them The we'll give credit where credits. Due they took
two of three from The, marlins and that was A
marlins team that was hotter than the sun going into that.
Series and then they took two of three in the
from The, yankees and both of those were on the,
Road so credit to The astros four and two to
close out that road TRIP a very long road, trip
because that road trip started started At Fenway, park so
that Was fenway To miami To yankees and now they're
heading back, home no off, day big game against The Red,
sox and they and they get welcomed By Garrett. Crochet
so As i'm Sorry, Astros Red Sox. Crochet Christian, hobvier
WHO'S i? Believe DID i see him rehabbing HIS i
think he was coming up coming back from injury BECAUSE
i feel LIKE i watched him pitching TRIPLE a a couple.
Speaker 3: Times how are you seeing this? One while you, Talk.
Speaker 1: I'm going to sort of pull his TRIPLE a numbers
BECAUSE i KNOW i watched at least one of those.
Speaker 3: Starts Red Sox.
Speaker 2: Astros, Yeah crossehet left is about a one seventy favorite
here on the road To. Houston navier al righty seven
and a half to the under. Fifteen to, Me crouchet's been,
fantastic no doubt about. IT i can't say a bad
thing about him other than this is awful high line
when you consider The Houston astros are this big of
a home underdog With Christian, aavier which is a good.
Picture but as you, mentioned he's missed a lot of.
TIME i don't know how long he's going to go.
HERE i have not had a chance, To LIKE i,
said all these Games Red, night SO i haven't had
a chance to see if he's on a pitch limit
or what's going on with. Him he's a guy that's
always slid under the radar For. Houston but he's a
very good. Picture he's been. Terrific in, fact let me
see what his what his career numbers. Are when you
take a look At javier been in the league for
five seasons, Now he's got a thirty three and eighteen,
record three point five to ninety or a career at
one point one four. Whip that's that's a pretty good
pitcher to be getting this big number on if he
was to, Go IF i IF i knew he would
go eighty, PITCHES i would think there might be some
value here On. Houston at this, POINT i don't know
the closer is going to be available To. Night king
pitched the last two. Nights he's a key in that,
Bullpen but The astros have a very good bullpen and
for the most, part all but one guy should be.
Available it's a value play for me On. Houston but
he takes some, balls stand in front Of crochet and
with a total of seven and a. Half they're telling
me right now that they Expect houston to probably score
three runs in this. Game and if they do score
three runs in this, game is that good to be
enough to shut Down. Boston if it, is then that's.
Fine but the under may be a different way to
play this. One pretty, good pretty level hitting situation In
houston if you can pull the, Ball crawford boxes or
big for home. Runs but overall it's like a neutral.
Field so, Yeah i'm gonna take a look at it
a little bit more IF I IF i Know javier
is gonna play eighty pitches with pretty much everybody in
the bullpen, AVAILABLE i may end up With houston some
way in this, game BUT i wouldn't fold anybody for
wanting to Back. Crochet maybe Playing crochet runs under or
something like that if you like that. Side But i'm
not gonna lay one seventy five on the road here
against The Houston.
Speaker 3: ASTROS i just needed to jog my memory for a.
Speaker 1: Second SO i DID i actually bet on Sugar land
In hobber's first rehab, Start the reason BEING I i
knew the, books didn't know he was going to pitch that,
Day AND i also knew that The astros Or i'm,
Sorry sugarland was gonna piggyback the regular starter WHO i
liked behind. Him and so Now i've NOW i remember
WHAT i saw in that, game and and my takeaway
well from that, game AND i caught a piece of
one of his other starts didn't didn't have the, command
and really any of Those TRIPLE a rehab, Starts now
that's not the end of the, world like like that's
not the end all be. All it doesn't mean he's
gonna come out and get shelled. Tonight but that was
my takeaway from that was ten nine and two thirds
innings over Three TRIPLE a rehab, starts ten, strikeouts which
we like to, see but ten, walks so he really
was like kind of all over the, place had some
batters where you, know his dominant stuff really sort of
shoone through and he got some, strikeouts and then he
also sort of offset it with not being able to
find the zone at time and walk some Batter SO
i don't have like a huge SOMETIMES i have pretty
big takeaways from the. REHAB i don't really know what
to pull from, that BECAUSE i don't think it means
he's just gonna come out and walk six. Guys but
at the same, time it's a little concerning that he
he didn't really have one like sparkling sort of.
Speaker 3: Outing that's.
Speaker 1: Concerning now if you want to talk about pitch count
and how DEEP i think he's going to go into this,
game let's see he. THREW i just want to double.
Check so we got most recent start for him at
Sugar lands seventy seven, pitches SO i think that's typically
a good if they let him go seventy seven pitches
in a rehab, OUTING i think you can say seventy
five to eighty is a realistic target for him in this.
Game SO i think it's gonna be his game until
he gives him a reason to take him. OUT i
think if he hits the eighty pitch, mark they'll probably
look to go to the. Bullpen so just if you're
trying to acap this, game that's WHAT i think you
can expect From. Hobbyers seventy five to eighty. Pitches for, Me,
Brian i'm kind of, LIKE i think IF i had
more faith In, hobbyer That i'd be looking at An
astros plus one and a half. HERE i just don't
know IF i, do because it is an number that
is quite. Inflated so for, me more than likely going
to sit this one out and maybe we'll get a
spot to play The astros at a big price later
in this. Series but, UNFORTUNATELY i think the big price
is being dictated By crochet on the, mounder so we may.
Not BUT i THINK i still have to Lean astros
plus one and a half IF i absolutely had to get.
Involved but that's the beauty of. It we don't have
to do. Anything that's our. Edge that's our edge as the.
Betters we don't have to bet any of these games
if we don't want, to So i'll probably pass.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: All.
Speaker 1: Right we still have ten minutes of show, left and
it's going to be a two teamer, today so we
will have a better chance of hitting the bar license
it's a two.
Speaker 3: Teamer would love to hit one of.
Speaker 1: These Brian, leonard do You i'm gonna throw it over
to you before we go back to the. Chat do
you have a game in mind that you want to?
Target did we talk about something that might be your
parlay leg? Yet Because i'm kind of in the same
boat WHERE i don't know IF i want to use
something we talked about or something that might still come.
Up So i'm going to kind of defer to you.
Here if you want to bring up a, game go, ahead.
Speaker 2: We can take a look At let's take a look
At washington Against Kansas.
Speaker 1: City, okay all, right, yeah the, chat the chat has
brought that one, up so that's.
Speaker 3: Ok that's. Good let's go to that.
Speaker 2: Game we've Got savali making his second start since coming
back from. Injuries first, start he had some success on.
Speaker 3: A lot of.
Speaker 2: Whips he didn't he didn't throw a lot of, pitches
but he had like nineteen, whips which is. Great Bailey
falter going For Kansas. City he's a. Lefty Kansas city
is about a one fifty favorite here and a total
of eight and a half to the, over nine to the.
Under savali's the guy who is really a Guy i've
been waiting. For he's only had you, know one start,
now and he had one start in twenty twenty two
and he got hurt in that. One so it's been
a long. Road As Tom putty would, say it's been a,
long long road for a Kid, sivali BUT i like.
Him he was highly rated in the. Past he's twenty
six years old now and it's been a shame that
it's been this long since he's been able to get
into the rotation because of. Injuries BUT i like. Him
ZERO era EXPECTED dra zero point nine four expect to
win zero point nine. Two he was everything he's advertised
in that first matchup is he throws six, pitches although
the cutter and the slider are less than ten, percent
but his foresaimers at ninety seven point three league average
for a right he is ninety four point nine and
he does throw that thirty one percent of the, time
slightly higher than the curve which is thirty. Percent then
he throws a sinker in a. Change so he's got
the pitches he could throw. Here and obviously nobody has
seen him for a while from the opposition And Bailey
falter obviously being playing for the teams he's played in
The National, league but he's in The America league. Now
his extension is in the ninety six. Percentile other than,
that it's all blue on a. Stack cast page comes
in with a four point one FOUR era four point
eight two expected era whip one point two to, three
which isn't. Bad but if his numbers aren't, bad but
his stat cast page is. Terrible fifth, percentage fourth percentile
strekeout or a fifth percentile expected D ra, eighteenth inspected batting, average,
twentieth fastball velocity's. Seventeenth his fastball velocity is about one
mile an hour lower than the league, average and yet
he throws a For sam forty four percent of the.
Time that's not, good and that's Some that's the one
reason Why i'm wanting to fade him. HERE I i'm
not a, fan, OBVIOUSLY i don't think anybody is with
This washington. Bullpen so let's take a look at what
we can get For washington in the first half. Here
you can Get washington basically either plus one, yeah plus one,
hundred so you can get. Him you can get him
at plus one. Hundred there's a couple of one of
five's out. There but we'll go plus one hundred On
savale Against falter in the first, five and the total
of that is four and a half to the Over
washington with With savali first five plus one hundred will
be my parlat.
Speaker 1: Piece that's verse five money line even money is your
parlay Leg just to clarify for, Everyone i'll read it
at the end of the show as. Well, YEAH i
can't argue with. THAT i was you, KNOW i kind
of Had natch jotted down this is this is a
spot where if the if The royals were really really,
INFLATED i WOULD i would try to get like A
naps plus one and a, half as you guys, know
that's my, Style but not even a CHANCE i could
do it at the, price nor will it come into
price range where it is at right. Now and it's
not to say THAT i wouldn't like take a flyer
on The nats here at plus one thirty for the.
GAME i, MEAN i mean that's probably you, know from
a value, STANDPOINT i think it's a reasonable.
Speaker 3: Play but again it's just you, know kind of WHAT
i look.
Speaker 1: For that being, said, reason the REASON i look toward
The nats Is Kai kabali looked really good last time.
Out and this is a guy that you know was
a was A i believe he was a first. ROUNDER
i think he was a first rounder back in twenty,
twenty lost nearly two years to, injury and you know
HE i, mean he's got the big fastball like, that you,
know if it let's let's just say he didn't lose
all that time to end, Right like he's the type
of guy that would have been hyped, up, Right, like
let's say he doesn't lose the time and get. Hurt
he's the type of guy that like comes up with
some hype because he was A he was the twenty
second overall pick in The Major League Baseball draft the
year after The nationals won The World, series so back
in twenty. Twenty but he ends up missing the majority
of all of twenty twenty, three the majority of twenty twenty,
four and so people forget about. Him and now he
he sort of makes HIS mlb. DEBUT i want to
make Sure i'm sorry his his Major League baseball debut
is back in twenty twenty. Two but he makes his
return to THE mlb last week and it's it's relatively
goes relatively. Unnoticed that's as good As i've seen him.
Pitch And i've got to see this guy probably three
or four times in, person because he's been he's been
In rochester for a while, now AND i actually saw him.
Speaker 3: Pitch For, GOD i think he.
Speaker 1: CAN'T i THINK i saw him pitch Against syracuse earlier
this year actually out. Here but the point, is he
comes up six, strikeouts one. WALK i think he got
into the fifth. Inning so it's not gonna jump off
the page from like if you, look if this is
where we go back, to if you don't watch the,
games you're just looking at the box, scores not gonna
not gonna jump off the. Page but that was that
was a very impressive four and a third in my.
Opinion he was throwing hard The a's, hitters which WAS i,
mean The a's have been kind of crushing the, ball
especially right hand and pitching felt like they had no
chance against. Him so that was that right there was you,
know just enough to make me think, like, okay like you,
know this is a guy that could actually put it
together at the big league, level because you, know he's
been at the in the miners for a. WHILE i
think you can't you can't take what you saw at
the miners ors minor league numbers at face value because
a lot of it was just rehab building the arm.
Speaker 3: Backup so, again just based on.
Speaker 1: That, NOW i don't love The nats against left handed pitching,
typically but they have it's not like earlier in the
year where they're trotting out nine. Lefties it's a more
balanced lineup than it was earlier in the. Year so
for all those, Reasons, BRIAN i THINK i got to
agree with you. HERE i see some full game value
On nats as. Well SO i will co sign your
parlay leg with A, listen if you're going to bet this,
GAME i think you take a flyer on The. Nationals
take the plus one THIRTY i crushing loss for The royals,
yesterday by the, way they're gonna have to get off
the mat from, that and that's not easy to do
when you're sort of a middling team like The.
Speaker 3: Royals go, Ahead, BRIAN.
Speaker 2: I want to talk about something somebody in the, Chat
Mike walker, says talk about the picks you all have for.
Today first of, ALL i don't know what my picks are.
YET i don't put them out until a little bit.
Later i'm still working on. It LIKE i, said these
are all in a night. Card i'd rather win to
get them up earlier and the company make a little
bit more. Money we make a little bit more. Money
i'm out there trying to. Win H so they are
going to probably go up. LATER i want to check
a little bit of lineups and WHO i think is
going to. Play, also if we were to give you
out the pits then we have we wouldn't make any.
Money why'd you? TALK i wouldn't make any money and
the show wouldn't. Exist SO i know what you're. Saying
but you want our best. Plays but the company we
work for does tell, plays and that's why we're doing this.
Show and, yeah they would fire me in no time
IF i give out my plays on this show all the.
Speaker 1: Time Kristin, Hess, yeah we appreciate that everyone hit the like.
Button it does, help and, yeah that's that's REALLY i,
listen we do this show five days and. Week we're
giving you an hour of it's it's probably more geared
to people that are handicapping.
Speaker 3: Themselves like that's that's really WHAT i.
Speaker 1: Think our goal when we did this set out with
this idea we wanted to provide the like real. Value,
well we want to always provide, value but, yeah we
sell our best bets like that's our. Job so as,
Always Like i've got a PLAY i am absolutely love,
TONIGHT i can't talk about it on the show OR
i can't tell you what it is on the show
because then no one would buy. It and that's up
at Wager talk right. Now i'm twelve and three in
my last fifteen and it's a five, Percenter so if
you're new to the show or the, site five percent
players are our. Max that's the maximum rating we can
give a. Play And i've got one, Tonight so that's
over at the Wager talk site as. Well, Brian i'm
sure he has stuff. Up do you have anything locked
in yet or?
Speaker 2: NO i have nothing. Yet brandon's in the. Chat brandon's
got some stuff up. Already oh he Was.
Speaker 1: Tokyo brandon is in the chat somewhere in Central. Japan
Jesse schule was, like Where's. Tokyo, well he's not In,
tokyo which is why he's not. HERE i don't know
where he. Is but LIKE i, SAID, Tv i'd love
to drive Around japan with. You.
Speaker 3: SOMETIMES i love, Driving.
Speaker 1: Like it's a lot of the times WHEN i go
to these basketball, games unless it's like flying to The
West coast LIKE i usually, Drive, Like i'll drive fifteen.
Speaker 3: HOURS i don't. CARE i just enjoy.
Speaker 1: It So i'd imagine that's an incredible drive that he's
on right, now just driving out into like the japan.
Speaker 3: Country that is.
Speaker 1: Awesome he'll be back tomorrow when he's on internet. Somewhere but,
yeah so we'll HAVE tv back. TOMORROW i want to
get THE i want to get the. Chat we'll probably
go a minute or two longer. Today let's let's get
them one more game and Then i'll lock in the.
Parlay let's we got The tigers crowd here AND i
want to bring this one up BECAUSE i feel LIKE
i WAS i feel like this IS i know this. Team,
BRIAN i said Like White sox might go on a
little losing. STREAK i saw the. Sharps the sharps came
in every day on The White sox over the, weekend
AND i think even knocked one of those prices down
to where you played back at the market and cashed
with The. Guardians DID i see that? Correctly did you
have a winner with The guardians this weekend over The White.
Speaker 2: SOX i had The guardians yesterday or two days, ago and,
uh a full play and they. WON i COULDN'T i
haven't had good luck with The, guardians BUT i couldn't
pass it. Up BUT i had two plays. Yesterday my
lester play was The guardians yesterday and they. LOST i
actually to show you that we don't just complain about our.
LOSSES i had my top play yesterday was The angels
first five team total over one and a. Half they
have zero with two outs in the fifth, inning there
was a walk and then they get Shany well out
of anybody who hit a home, run he hits. One
that WAS i was like one strike away from, losing
and SO i pulled that my ass AND i got that.
Victory and it's about TIME i got some good. Luck
So i'm very, happy AND i fully admit it WHEN
i get. LUCKY i got lucky in that.
Speaker 1: One SO i want to go to this game because
this is this is a. Game but this is a
name THAT i don't think people have seen in a.
Speaker 3: WHILE i.
Speaker 1: WAS i was surprised to See Elvis pagero getting a start.
TODAY i don't know if that's who's going to actually,
start BUT i saw his name thrown around for bulk,
innings so you know that's Have have we gotten a
starter announced for The White sox?
Speaker 2: YET i see the same thing as you. Do, Uh paguero's.
Speaker 3: Pitched oh, yeah he's in.
Speaker 2: There, yeah he's pitched six games out of the bullpen this, year,
uh seven total, innings so he could be just just you,
know a one inning. Starter he's gone seven innings and six,
starts so or six, games so maybe you might get
two innings out of. Him but the last three years
he's been a bullpen. Guy one about one hundred and
thirty total innings in his five, seasons one hundred and
thirty nine total. Innings let me give you his career.
Numbers four point one two expected THE, ara four point
seventy nine, whip one point four to six really good,
extension ninety fourth. Percentile it's an the limited he's only
he's only pitched seven, innings so there's not a whole
lot of value in his. Stackasse at this, Point Chris
paddock was the guy going For detroit four point nine ONE,
era four point seven to two, expected one point two
to five. Whip he was the one that just recently
played against the team that just traded, him and that
was against The. Twins he looked pretty good because at
four point nine ONE, era four point seven to, expect
a one point two five, whip great. Extension h doesn't
walk anybody only five point three walks a. Game his
chase rad is very, good but everything else is in
the blue hard hit rate fifteenth. Percentile struck out right
sixteenth with, Sixteenth so we'll have to. See let, me
let me take a quick look at at The Chicago
White sox, bullpen because.
Speaker 1: YEP i know what they're gonna. DO i know what
they're gonna do with their. Pitching now it looks. WELL
i was going to, SAY i want you to look
at their bullpen and then jump back.
Speaker 3: IN i just want to let you know that it is.
Speaker 1: Likely it looks like we're going to Have pigero as an,
opener because he. Hasn't he's been a one inning guy
At TRIPLE a all year for the in The brewers,
organization where he's done.
Speaker 3: Most of most of his.
Speaker 1: Work got grabbed by The White size through an inning
last week Against, syracuse and now he's. Up this Is
this looks like a true just, opener one inning, situation
and it's Likely.
Speaker 3: Tyler alexander in bulk after.
Speaker 1: Him so, yeah go go, AHEAD i want you to
finish what you were, saying and Then i'll jump back.
Speaker 2: In, Yeah Tyler alexander did the same thing Last wednesday
through sixty seven innings or sixty seven sixty seven. Pitches
other Than Jordan, leisure who pitched the last two, days
he probably won't be. Available they Brought Cam boozer named
from the. Past they brought him back up From TRIPLE.
A they've had four four guys pitch yesterday for, him
but nobody threw over twenty. PITCHES i think they'll all
be available in this. One so, yeah there'll be a
bullpening game for. Them and, yeah they didn't use the
bullpen a whole lot Against cleveland because they didn't they
weren't winning other than, yesterday so a lot of the
guys are fresh in that, regard so their better bullpen
arms will be out.
Speaker 1: There, yeah AND i will play on. That i'm gonna
Put White sox plus one and a half in the.
Parlay it's minus one. THIRTY i think that's a good
price for to get the run to work. With And
i'll play off of what you were just talking. About
is the reason Why i've talked about this a ton
on this.
Speaker 3: Show like WHAT i like the Way venable has managed this.
Speaker 1: TEAM i like that he sort of turned it into
a looser like more of like a developmental atmosphere where everyone.
Plays he's putting every he's putting everyone on the roster
in position to potentially. Contribute they're all getting a. Chance
he's mixed up the bullpen arms really. Well and now
that they've called up some guys Like Grant, taylor you,
know there's there's Even leisure has been, okay like what
the lefty icer is, ier the lefty that gets in
once in a, While alexander's been, okay like they they've actually,
been you, know. RESPECTABLE a lot of the relievers have
done just fine the last month or. So AND i
think it really has to do with just like they're
playing the way that so all these guys came up
From charlotte, Basically so if you look at This White
sox roster right, now it's very heavy tripa A charlotte
players from earlier this year And venables managing the same
way they manage down At, charlotte where it's like you,
pitch you pitch every couple of. Days it doesn't really
matter who's in what. Spot it's more about getting your work.
In we're gonna get everyone at. That we're gonna platoon
and try to put guys in position to have some
success because we're not that concerned with wins and. Losses
but what it's actually done has made them a better
team wins and loss wise than they were the first
ninety games where they were thirty and. Sixty SO i
love the way things are going for The White sox right.
Now AND i got to, say AND i don't think
Our tiger's crew is going to disagree with this statement
that this team has some issues right. Now And i'm
gonna go back to That mariner series going into the. Break,
okay they kind of took the foot off the gas
it was going into The All star. Break they had
five guys going to The All Star, game, whatever but
it set the tone for, like This tigers team is
not that talented in relation to the other good teams
in this.
Speaker 3: League they don't have the talent like The.
Speaker 1: Tigers if you look at where they are win loss,
wise they don't have the talent that The dodgers, do
or The phillies, door or The Blue jays, do or
the choking over Here brian helped me, out The cubs
the like even The, mets right they don't have that
kind of. Talent the way The tigers racked up all
those wins was playing really really good. Baseball and what
have The tigers not done since The All Star? Break
they're just not playing like, great fundamentally sound ball. Anymore
where it's like the bullpen does their part and everyone
does their, part and it's really turned into a team
that's just looked, very very.
Speaker 3: Average and now they're going on the road here and
you need.
Speaker 1: Them to win by more than two runs with a
guy And Chris paddock on the mound that The White
sox have seen a ton of because he came from
their division and he's not that good in the first. Place,
yeah let's do. That White sox plus one and a
half is What i'm gonna do for the.
Speaker 3: PARLAY i don't go.
Speaker 2: Back what do you want to play? In Steve duke,
Says alexander was. Yesterday he's a Mistaken, Sorry. Steve he
did not pitch. Yesterday he did pitch On.
Speaker 1: Wednesday, yeah he's They all the reports On twitter are
that it's going to Be pigero for an, inning followed
By Tyler, alexander Not Jason, alexander who's on The.
Speaker 3: Astros this is a really well he had a Good,
yeah he.
Speaker 2: Go against, him and he pitched as, well you run
into these things, sometimes but you got certain guys and you,
KNOW i used to work with the guy and he
said that team's on my, list And i'd, say you,
know you say that every. Day you know after a
month you don't have anything you can pet.
Speaker 3: On, yeah, yeah, LISTEN I i wanted and the other thing.
TOO i want to point out. HERE i know we're
going over a few Minutes.
Speaker 1: Tokyo brandon is still fired out that he must get
Okay Internet Central japan or phones or, actually you know,
what they probably have all better stuff than that than we.
Speaker 2: Do it's like that's actually a modern.
Speaker 3: Country he, says we need more like. So, yeah and
we got over a thousand live.
Speaker 1: Viewers so went a little long, today BUT i think
it's worthwhile. Conversation going back to last, WEEK i, said you,
KNOW i really wanted to find a spot that The White.
SOX i really. COULDN'T i felt like they were sort
of on the wrong trajectory last. Week, well they did
get the win, yesterday AND i wouldn't be surprised to
see them play with a little bit more life this,
week especially being back home and let's be, honest, like
what what do they have to get fired up for
at this? Point not? Much But division leader comes to,
town you're at. HOME i think that gets the juices
phone a little. Bit so, Yeah I'm i'm interested in
The White sox. Here and if this were to get
bet down a little bit, MORE i MIGHT i might
need to throw another play on the client. Card but for,
now it's gonna be the Parlay lake which is locked.
In it's a two team Or, brian we Got White
sox plus one and a half for the full, game
and we've Got.
Speaker 3: Nationals so that's my.
Speaker 1: Leg White sox plus one and a half full game
and then we've Got nationals first five even money two
team parlay today plus two fifty four.
Speaker 3: Odds give us the, like.
Speaker 1: Subscribes if you missed any of the live, show head
on over to the Wager talk YouTube channel and watch the.
REPLAY i have a five percent play up tonight THAT
i love and we did not talk.
Speaker 3: About, it SO i will say that he did talk
about it on the.
Speaker 2: Show i'll just let everybody. Know grab make sure you
grab that five. Percent brandon will be back. Tomorrow as
far AS i, KNOW i will be going On. Wednesday
i'll be somewhere worthy for wi fi is just not
going to be good. Enough if you've complained About trig
going in and out on some of his. STUFF i
don't even want to try my WiFi at this. Place
So i'll be back tomorrow and i'll skip On, wednesday.
Speaker 3: Hopefully wherever you.
Speaker 1: Will wherever you're going On, Wednesday i'll have some air conditioning,
though BECAUSE i gotta be, honest it has been a,
hot hot summer here In Central New, york AND i
don't know how you guys do. It i'm not cut
out for. IT i NEED i need it to be
fifty or sixty degrees every. Day i'm just not cut
out for the. HEAT i hate. IT i can't leave.
Speaker 2: Every day out here for the last week and the
time to not hit our Conditional.
Speaker 1: All, right it's it was a Great monday. Show we
made it just the two man. Show we're back with
a three man weave tomorrow if you, will and then
we'll be two man again On. Wednesday we've got a
nice two Teamer NAT's first five Money Line White Sox
full game plus one and a. Half appreciate over one
thousand of you tuning in on the, live please head
over and you, know like subscribe on the. Replay if
you missed, anything it's all there on the Wager talk
YouTube channel and we'll see you guys back here nine am.
Speaker 3: Tomorrow take, care