WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:02.680 Hey, what's up, guys? This is duh. Do us a 2 00:00:02.680 --> 00:00:05.360 favorite and check out our Patreon page. It's patreon dot 3 00:00:05.400 --> 00:00:08.919 com slash the Teamhouse. You get both Teamhouse episodes and 4 00:00:09.039 --> 00:00:13.359 As on Geopolitics episodes completely ad free. You get them 5 00:00:13.359 --> 00:00:15.560 early too. You can ask us questions. You can also 6 00:00:15.599 --> 00:00:19.039 watch the Team House episodes live as we shoot them. 7 00:00:19.079 --> 00:00:21.800 So uh, and you help support the show and support 8 00:00:21.800 --> 00:00:26.480 what we're doing here. It's patreon dot com Slash the Teamhouse. 9 00:00:26.519 --> 00:00:28.359 Those links are in the description or if you're listening, 10 00:00:28.399 --> 00:00:30.399 it's in the show notes down below, so you can 11 00:00:30.440 --> 00:00:32.920 click it real quick and easy, and it helps us 12 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:36.600 keep the lights on. So we appreciate it, and we 13 00:00:36.640 --> 00:00:42.320 appreciate you guys listening. Thanks a bunch, everybody. Welcome to 14 00:00:42.359 --> 00:00:45.079 another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here today with 15 00:00:45.119 --> 00:00:49.799 Andy Milburn, Mark Polilaroppos, and Mick Molroy. Some housekeeping. Mark 16 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:52.920 is gonna be joining us regularly now. He's gonna be 17 00:00:52.920 --> 00:00:56.280 taking over my role as like host slash moderator because like, 18 00:00:56.359 --> 00:00:58.679 I never wanted to do it, and I just did 19 00:00:58.679 --> 00:01:01.799 it because the team needed it. So what I got, Yeah, 20 00:01:01.799 --> 00:01:04.920 I'm replacing myself in terms of hosts I'm still gonna 21 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:06.760 be here and rule with an iron fist, don't get 22 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:12.280 her twisted. But with another Greek, and thank god not 23 00:01:12.400 --> 00:01:14.480 another Marine. 24 00:01:14.799 --> 00:01:15.040 Mark. 25 00:01:15.120 --> 00:01:17.000 Well, I can see we got the Greeks and the 26 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.280 left and the Marines and the right. 27 00:01:19.760 --> 00:01:25.840 Is that where we're going with at the bottom, Yeah. 28 00:01:25.920 --> 00:01:29.400 Greeks around Yeah, well it's it's another Yeah, be careful, 29 00:01:29.719 --> 00:01:33.239 be careful. Uh it's another CIA guy, which you know. 30 00:01:34.680 --> 00:01:36.439 I mean, that's what I was my order from the 31 00:01:36.480 --> 00:01:38.799 agency to get another CIA guy on so we can 32 00:01:38.840 --> 00:01:42.359 continue the CIA propaganda. Hear, But uh no, no, no, 33 00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:45.560 it's a I don't know if Mark is exactly on 34 00:01:45.719 --> 00:01:48.560 the CIA Christmas card. 35 00:01:48.359 --> 00:01:51.560 List or anything like that anymore. Yeah, well he said 36 00:01:51.599 --> 00:01:52.599 that he's. 37 00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:54.000 Gonna be higher on the list than that guy you 38 00:01:54.079 --> 00:01:56.840 head on who is now in the Big House. 39 00:01:56.680 --> 00:02:02.319 Right, yeah, Dale Bendler, Yeah, yes, thank you, Andy. 40 00:02:02.439 --> 00:02:04.760 It's for reminding us always quiet. 41 00:02:04.799 --> 00:02:09.159 When I pointed that out, I named him. 42 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.840 Listen, I can't be perfect. We've had four hundred episodes 43 00:02:11.840 --> 00:02:13.960 of the Team House. We're gonna have a couple. 44 00:02:13.639 --> 00:02:17.960 Of You've only had a handful of pedophiles and traders. 45 00:02:18.039 --> 00:02:21.120 We've had one pedo and one trader that we know 46 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:25.800 of true, that we know of right, we can take 47 00:02:25.800 --> 00:02:27.639 a look at the Epstein list. All right, Mark, take 48 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:28.080 it away. 49 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:31.840 D thank you very much, Andy and Mick. It's an 50 00:02:31.840 --> 00:02:34.639 honor to be amongst both of you. You guys are, 51 00:02:34.919 --> 00:02:36.800 of course both my friends. Have known you both for 52 00:02:36.919 --> 00:02:39.240 a while. Andy, you and I were on a kind 53 00:02:39.240 --> 00:02:41.199 of little bit of a mini g hot on a 54 00:02:41.199 --> 00:02:45.120 separate issue in terms of Gaza war crimes, and I 55 00:02:45.120 --> 00:02:47.840 will I'm proud to have supported you on that. Did 56 00:02:47.919 --> 00:02:49.599 you ever do the War in the Rocks episode by 57 00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:50.080 the way. 58 00:02:50.479 --> 00:02:53.360 Yeah, yeah, I did a podcast it's coming out this week, 59 00:02:53.479 --> 00:02:58.240 Good look Ryan and written a follow up article that, 60 00:02:58.360 --> 00:03:03.319 by the way, totally defunks list ridiculous bs that those 61 00:03:03.319 --> 00:03:05.000 two particular guys for bringing up. 62 00:03:05.120 --> 00:03:07.159 And Uh and Mick always an honor to be with you. 63 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:10.400 Of course, we have a long and assorted history together 64 00:03:10.479 --> 00:03:13.520 from the mountains of northern Iraq to the but with 65 00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:16.919 the plains of Paktika Province in eastern Afghanistan. And Uh, 66 00:03:17.719 --> 00:03:20.039 Mick your your claim to fame as you were one 67 00:03:20.080 --> 00:03:22.919 of the two former ground branch officers who gave me 68 00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:26.599 a really terrible nickname in Iraq. If you remember the 69 00:03:26.840 --> 00:03:29.039 fighting lambshop, which I will when I'd walk down the 70 00:03:29.080 --> 00:03:30.840 halls and c I A when i'd see one of you, 71 00:03:30.919 --> 00:03:33.639 all premier tribe, when they would scream that out, I 72 00:03:33.639 --> 00:03:35.719 would like duck into a corner and shame. 73 00:03:36.680 --> 00:03:38.800 Why it was about the dustache. 74 00:03:39.039 --> 00:03:40.879 It's a good I know, it's good. I had some good, good, 75 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:44.439 good jobs going on. But let's let's just kick off 76 00:03:44.479 --> 00:03:46.520 on here and and just you know, first and foremost 77 00:03:46.759 --> 00:03:48.719 again to be with you guys. I think I've been 78 00:03:48.759 --> 00:03:51.080 down the team house about a million times, so it's 79 00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:53.000 fun to be back, and especially in Ason too. But 80 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:55.319 I think the biggest kind of the story we should 81 00:03:55.360 --> 00:03:58.879 start with is the is the Munich Security Conference wrapping 82 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:02.199 up today in fact, uh and you know, and and 83 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:04.840 after last year is kind of debacle where Vice President 84 00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:09.120 Vance basically insulted everybody on the planet if you're in 85 00:04:09.159 --> 00:04:11.960 Europe or everyone in Europe. Certainly, I think Secretary of 86 00:04:12.000 --> 00:04:16.399 Rubio and his speech was certainly something that people were 87 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:18.279 looking forward to to see if there was perhaps a 88 00:04:18.319 --> 00:04:20.519 softer tone. And I have my thoughts on this. I 89 00:04:20.519 --> 00:04:22.120 have a very good analogy I want to make, but 90 00:04:22.160 --> 00:04:24.680 I'm going to save that till after I get both 91 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:26.600 andy and mixed views on that. So, Andy, what are 92 00:04:26.639 --> 00:04:30.720 your what are your thoughts on Munich a good place here? 93 00:04:31.000 --> 00:04:33.680 But and what what did Rubio accomplish or what did 94 00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:33.959 he not? 95 00:04:34.839 --> 00:04:37.800 Yes, so I I'm going to keep my comments brief, 96 00:04:38.279 --> 00:04:40.399 which will please much of the audience, so that I 97 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:43.600 can defer to the to YouTube who you're going to 98 00:04:43.600 --> 00:04:45.680 be able to speak far more profoundly on this topic. 99 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:49.480 But I would say this, Yes, you know Vance's comments 100 00:04:49.600 --> 00:04:54.240 last year. I think we're like nails on the chalkboard 101 00:04:54.279 --> 00:04:56.920 for most of us who have had anything to do 102 00:04:57.720 --> 00:04:59.600 even at the point end of the spare of foreign 103 00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:02.839 policy and understand a little bit of history. And I think, 104 00:05:03.319 --> 00:05:05.600 you know, I think this was honestly, I thought this 105 00:05:05.759 --> 00:05:08.519 was Rubio trying to draw, trying to walk the line 106 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:12.519 between what in his heart of hearts, not inside Rubio's heart, 107 00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:15.759 but in his heart of hearts he realizes is important, 108 00:05:16.279 --> 00:05:19.319 you know, the fact that the United States depends on 109 00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:23.240 partnerships and alliances, and that we represent something in Europe, 110 00:05:23.839 --> 00:05:26.439 something that you know, as Rubio points out himself, he 111 00:05:26.480 --> 00:05:31.120 grew up with the security stability, all of these things. 112 00:05:32.199 --> 00:05:34.800 But at the same time, there was that pointed message 113 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:36.920 right that Europe needs to step up to the plate 114 00:05:37.040 --> 00:05:39.519 to take charge of its own security, which I don't 115 00:05:39.519 --> 00:05:43.160 think anyone in this group would argue with right. So 116 00:05:43.279 --> 00:05:48.040 it was a balancing act. It didn't like most balancing acts. 117 00:05:48.040 --> 00:05:50.639 It didn't give any of the audience exactly what they 118 00:05:50.680 --> 00:05:54.519 wanted to hear, but at least there was a little 119 00:05:54.600 --> 00:05:59.879 more PLACATORI than Vance's speech last year and didn't leave 120 00:06:00.480 --> 00:06:05.240 the United States looking quite quite such an outlier. 121 00:06:08.040 --> 00:06:10.600 Your thoughts, Yeah, well, first of us are with a 122 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:15.480 shameless plug. So we have We're starting the Whitefish Security 123 00:06:15.519 --> 00:06:18.560 Summit this year in April. Hopefully all you guys will 124 00:06:18.600 --> 00:06:19.879 be coming out eventually if not. 125 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:23.920 Anyway, this is it. 126 00:06:23.480 --> 00:06:26.720 It's called the Monte it was called the Montana Intelligence Summit, 127 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:30.519 and now LOBO is a partner to the group, so 128 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:33.160 it's now the white Fish Security Summing. It's going to 129 00:06:33.199 --> 00:06:36.199 be we hope similar to or not want to be 130 00:06:36.240 --> 00:06:38.639 too cocky here, but similar to the Munich but really 131 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:44.000 heavily intel and special operations. So like this year. General 132 00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:46.279 Stan McCrystal is one of the headliners, and a bunch 133 00:06:46.319 --> 00:06:49.920 of former senior CI folks but it's annual, right, so 134 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:54.319 we hope to have eyes on and the whole crew 135 00:06:54.360 --> 00:06:59.639 out here open invitation obviously for that. But again it's 136 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:03.279 gonna going to be broad foreign policy national security topics, 137 00:07:03.319 --> 00:07:07.759 but it's always going to keep its kind of core uniqueness, 138 00:07:07.800 --> 00:07:13.160 which is special operations and CIA type spin. So specific 139 00:07:13.199 --> 00:07:18.240 to the actual Munich conference, agree with Andy, the issue 140 00:07:18.279 --> 00:07:22.120 I think if I was Europeans is everything that Vice 141 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:26.519 President Vance said that was controversial is codified inside the 142 00:07:26.600 --> 00:07:32.000 national security strategy. So even with Rubio's I think a 143 00:07:32.079 --> 00:07:35.040 moderated tone, which I do believe is more in line 144 00:07:35.079 --> 00:07:38.000 with his actual philosophy. I think he's more of a 145 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:42.839 traditional Republican on the foreign policy stage. But even with that, 146 00:07:43.120 --> 00:07:46.399 even with his comments that were more conciliatory and more 147 00:07:46.759 --> 00:07:49.959 positive toward Europe and you know, our tied heritage and 148 00:07:49.959 --> 00:07:53.160 everything like that, if I was a European leader, I'd 149 00:07:53.199 --> 00:07:57.079 still look at the strategy, right. It didn't change the 150 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:01.199 actual plan for the US going forward, just was a 151 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:04.920 better way to present some of it. So, and we 152 00:08:04.959 --> 00:08:07.800 saw a lot of comments from you know, the Chancellor 153 00:08:07.839 --> 00:08:12.959 of Germany Mertz and that, you know, really question US 154 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.519 leadership going forward. And I think we saw that from 155 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:21.680 several countries. Obviously some europe Being countries like Denmark are 156 00:08:21.720 --> 00:08:25.040 super upset about the whole Greenland thing. Not to go 157 00:08:25.079 --> 00:08:27.639 down that road, but there's a lot of resentment in 158 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:32.240 the Europe right now towards the US. It was probably 159 00:08:32.679 --> 00:08:34.879 and I'm not saying a lot of it isn't earned. 160 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:37.679 I mean, I agree with Andy, they kind of didn't 161 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:41.200 take their security serious. They thought, Okay, we have the 162 00:08:41.240 --> 00:08:43.519 big brother that is the United States, so we can 163 00:08:43.600 --> 00:08:45.200 spend on social programs. 164 00:08:45.279 --> 00:08:45.440 Right. 165 00:08:46.799 --> 00:08:48.759 That's that shouldn't have been the case. But now I 166 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:53.240 think primarily because Russia innovated Ukraine, Europe is taking its 167 00:08:53.279 --> 00:08:59.159 security serious. And my last points on that part, we 168 00:08:59.240 --> 00:09:02.159 need Europe. We are basing in Europe. It's actually super 169 00:09:02.200 --> 00:09:05.360 beneficial to the United States. If not, we have big 170 00:09:05.399 --> 00:09:08.679 problems projecting force around the world if you take out 171 00:09:08.720 --> 00:09:12.840 all the European basing and access and the fact that 172 00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:17.879 we have pre stage forces there. Also, Europe, even though 173 00:09:17.879 --> 00:09:21.320 it's you know, as I just said, not taking its 174 00:09:21.440 --> 00:09:24.240 security serious, is now it's going to be the partner 175 00:09:24.240 --> 00:09:27.120 that we always wanted, right It's in the future. So 176 00:09:27.200 --> 00:09:30.200 that's even more of a reason. In addition to long 177 00:09:30.279 --> 00:09:33.919 standing ties and being the pinnacle of our security structure 178 00:09:34.120 --> 00:09:36.360 since the end of World War Two, they're going to 179 00:09:36.440 --> 00:09:40.840 be even more on par with what we wanted soon. 180 00:09:41.480 --> 00:09:44.080 Right these countries are spending a lot more on their 181 00:09:44.120 --> 00:09:48.360 own security, and eventually they will be the partners that 182 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:52.000 we always wanted, and we don't want to rupture the 183 00:09:52.080 --> 00:09:55.440 relationship at a time when that's going to happen. It 184 00:09:55.480 --> 00:09:57.480 would make no sense for the US. We'd actually have 185 00:09:57.519 --> 00:10:00.519 to spend way more on our national security, didn't have 186 00:10:00.919 --> 00:10:03.480 the strong partners and allies that I think we've always 187 00:10:03.559 --> 00:10:06.240 had in Europe. And yes, they might have neglected some 188 00:10:06.279 --> 00:10:08.960 of their own defense, but let's not forget that they 189 00:10:08.960 --> 00:10:11.679 did go to war with US for twenty years after 190 00:10:11.840 --> 00:10:15.559 Article five was triggered after September eleventh. So they are 191 00:10:15.639 --> 00:10:20.759 the partners I think philosophically, and they're going to be 192 00:10:20.759 --> 00:10:24.399 the partners that we want practically in the sense that 193 00:10:25.639 --> 00:10:28.759 I think they're taking their security very serious right now. 194 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:34.279 And also remember Ukraine is still fighting Russia. Russia's only 195 00:10:34.320 --> 00:10:37.399 taken twenty percent of their territory and they've basically fought 196 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:40.039 them to a draw. Right, that's one country in Europe, 197 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:42.960 not NATO, but one country in Europe who's probably now 198 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:46.840 the most effective fighting force in Europe right now. And 199 00:10:47.120 --> 00:10:50.159 I think the lessons learned need to be brought into 200 00:10:50.480 --> 00:10:52.720 the rest of NATO. We just heard about this NATO 201 00:10:52.759 --> 00:10:58.120 exercise where the Ukrainians essentially wiped the floor with NATO. Right, 202 00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:02.559 that needs to be in corporate rate, it into European NATO, 203 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:05.000 and that needs to be a benefit to the United States. 204 00:11:05.000 --> 00:11:09.120 So anyway, I'm getting on a diatribe here, but these 205 00:11:09.159 --> 00:11:11.000 are all the things that I'm sure we're discussed on 206 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:16.480 the sidelines of NATO, and hopefully the US delegation understands this. 207 00:11:17.559 --> 00:11:19.360 So you know, one of the things that that I 208 00:11:19.399 --> 00:11:22.000 think I always try to find kind of an interesting 209 00:11:22.000 --> 00:11:25.120 analogy that that kind of the lay person I can use. 210 00:11:25.159 --> 00:11:26.720 I'm gonna throw this out here. I'm gonna use it 211 00:11:26.759 --> 00:11:28.720 later on on some TV hits, and so Mick, I 212 00:11:28.720 --> 00:11:30.000 want to see if you do as well. We can 213 00:11:30.039 --> 00:11:34.879 kind of compare this. This to me is like and 214 00:11:34.919 --> 00:11:37.639 this is not reflective of my current relationship. I'm happily married. 215 00:11:37.679 --> 00:11:40.639 So let's go back to college. When you get a 216 00:11:40.759 --> 00:11:43.519 middle of the night drunk text from your ex girlfriend 217 00:11:44.360 --> 00:11:47.159 saying hey, I want to come over, and it's all 218 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:48.720 giddy and you have a great time. But then you 219 00:11:48.799 --> 00:11:51.000 wake up the next morning and you realize, what the 220 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:54.759 hell did I just do. The Europeans kind of embrace 221 00:11:54.960 --> 00:11:58.840 of this, the standing ovation, I thought was a little preposterous, 222 00:11:58.919 --> 00:12:01.279 because you know, they're they're, they're they're you know, this 223 00:12:01.320 --> 00:12:03.639 is the whole idea of signal versus noise. So so 224 00:12:03.759 --> 00:12:06.919 Rubio had a nicer speech, well, great, that's your that's 225 00:12:06.919 --> 00:12:08.799 your ex girlfriend calling you up and saying, hey, I 226 00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:10.080 want to get back together tonight. 227 00:12:10.679 --> 00:12:11.000 Uh. 228 00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:13.120 But then you know the next morning when you realize, well, 229 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:15.679 wait a second, my ex girlfriend is really maybe not 230 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:16.360 a nice person. 231 00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:17.399 Uh. 232 00:12:17.480 --> 00:12:19.399 And I think that's what's happening right now. I talked 233 00:12:19.399 --> 00:12:23.120 to some some European officials who were actually leaving uh 234 00:12:23.200 --> 00:12:25.440 Munich right now, and they said, look, we're trying to 235 00:12:25.519 --> 00:12:28.600 kind of understand what happened here. But I think that 236 00:12:28.720 --> 00:12:31.559 some of that initial oh my god, the big relief, 237 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:33.559 I think at the head of the Munich security conference 238 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:35.600 like said, this is a sigh of relief. I found 239 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:38.360 that to be preposterous because you're not talking about actual 240 00:12:38.399 --> 00:12:40.159 facts on the ground. And if you take and so 241 00:12:40.240 --> 00:12:43.279 Rubio's tone was nicer, got it, vance was a total 242 00:12:43.320 --> 00:12:45.840 jerk last year, But if you look at actually what 243 00:12:46.039 --> 00:12:48.919 was said, the substance of it was not all that different. 244 00:12:49.480 --> 00:12:51.120 And there's a couple of pieces of this too, which 245 00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:53.399 I still think are a bit weird and insulting. I mean, 246 00:12:53.440 --> 00:12:56.000 you know, this whole idea that that Rubio talks about, 247 00:12:56.039 --> 00:12:58.919 and the State Department tweeted this out about let's let's 248 00:12:58.960 --> 00:13:01.519 you know, we have to celebrate our old heritage. I mean, 249 00:13:01.720 --> 00:13:03.759 you know, that's that's like a dog whistle for some 250 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:09.080 weird ship in terms of kind of white nationalism, the 251 00:13:09.159 --> 00:13:11.840 notion of the US now supporting think tanks in Europe 252 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:14.000 that kind of promote the far right. I mean, look 253 00:13:14.039 --> 00:13:16.600 where Rubio then jetted off to Slovakia and then he's 254 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:20.480 going to Hungry the two European countries that actually are 255 00:13:20.519 --> 00:13:24.919 not for unity on Ukraine for example, And so, uh, 256 00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:26.639 you know, I'm looking at you guys. You didn't like 257 00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:28.399 my analogy about the girlfriend thing the middle of. 258 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:28.879 The night text. 259 00:13:28.919 --> 00:13:29.559 I like that. 260 00:13:30.519 --> 00:13:31.399 I thought it was great. 261 00:13:31.600 --> 00:13:32.919 Okay, he likes it. Good. 262 00:13:32.960 --> 00:13:35.039 I've been I've been married for thirty two years. Man, 263 00:13:35.080 --> 00:13:35.639 I don't even know. 264 00:13:36.600 --> 00:13:39.440 I mean, don't you get anology by someone like middle 265 00:13:39.440 --> 00:13:40.759 of the night and you went back to them and 266 00:13:40.759 --> 00:13:42.279 you realized the next morning was stupid. 267 00:13:42.279 --> 00:13:45.919 It was yeah, I understand, indeed happened last night. 268 00:13:47.720 --> 00:13:49.080 They just said a concept no. 269 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:55.120 Kind of abused spouse and okay, that was the other one. 270 00:13:55.480 --> 00:13:58.759 It was, uh, you know, thank god, we're not going 271 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:03.679 to listen to another our beating session. And by the way, 272 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:06.039 I absolutely agree with all you guys, and I think 273 00:14:06.039 --> 00:14:09.799 we should probably get someone who's really obtuse on their 274 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:14.320 shows that we have more argument. You know, I'd like 275 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:18.000 to point out too, because I'm hearing, you know, there's 276 00:14:18.039 --> 00:14:21.080 this undercurrent of yep, we told them, and now they're 277 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:24.879 really fixing house. No, they started fixing house in twenty 278 00:14:24.919 --> 00:14:27.080 twenty two when the message came not from US, it 279 00:14:27.120 --> 00:14:30.120 came from the Russians. That is when Sweden and Finland, 280 00:14:30.240 --> 00:14:33.159 I mean, that is when Finland decided to join NATO. 281 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:37.240 That is when Poland made the decision to up their 282 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:42.120 their defense spending, you know, and it's already one of 283 00:14:42.159 --> 00:14:44.399 the you know, the leading countries in Europe as far 284 00:14:44.440 --> 00:14:47.879 as military strength and if you look at the rhetoric 285 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:52.159 coming from France to and Germany, it all started there 286 00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:55.639 in early twenty twenty two. Yes, the US may have 287 00:14:57.960 --> 00:15:03.080 may have thrown cold water on on any any lingering 288 00:15:03.759 --> 00:15:06.519 belief that the United States was behind it all on 289 00:15:06.559 --> 00:15:09.840 the side of freedom and all of this. Uh, but 290 00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:12.320 but that wake up call was already under effect thanks 291 00:15:12.360 --> 00:15:13.600 to you, thanks to booting. 292 00:15:14.360 --> 00:15:16.279 Nick, let me ask you a quick question about our 293 00:15:16.279 --> 00:15:18.720 old world, the intel world, and then and then Andy too, 294 00:15:18.720 --> 00:15:21.000 we can well we'll get to get onto another topic 295 00:15:21.080 --> 00:15:22.720 right after this, but one last piece, because it has 296 00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:25.320 to do with European agency, and that's the notion of 297 00:15:25.360 --> 00:15:27.399 how much can Europe actually go it alone? I mean, 298 00:15:27.399 --> 00:15:29.720 one of the things that that that kind of struck 299 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:32.399 me is that there's still this this notion of dependency. 300 00:15:32.919 --> 00:15:36.519 But the dependency, if you think about it, is probably 301 00:15:36.519 --> 00:15:39.679 in the intelligence sphere and things like like big items 302 00:15:39.720 --> 00:15:42.639 such as satellite you know, i R things, things in 303 00:15:42.679 --> 00:15:47.240 which you know, perhaps Europe can't uh, you know, deliver 304 00:15:47.320 --> 00:15:49.720 to Ukraine as much as we can. But how much 305 00:15:49.759 --> 00:15:51.440 of that is actually true? I don't know the answer 306 00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:55.679 to this, But with the amount that Europe is actually 307 00:15:55.679 --> 00:15:57.600 providing to Ukraine. Now, I mean, the fact that they're 308 00:15:57.639 --> 00:16:00.360 not at the negotiating table is preposterous, and why the 309 00:16:00.440 --> 00:16:02.519 US is even leading doesn't even make any sense since 310 00:16:02.559 --> 00:16:05.440 we're not giving them any We're selling weapons to NATO 311 00:16:05.519 --> 00:16:07.960 under the Pearl Program to get to Ukraine. We're not 312 00:16:07.960 --> 00:16:10.879 giving Ukraine as anything. But let Nick just start with 313 00:16:10.919 --> 00:16:13.679 you quickly on the Intel side. How much independence can 314 00:16:13.720 --> 00:16:17.799 Europe actually seek to get? Which would and because in 315 00:16:17.799 --> 00:16:19.840 some ways I think maybe the solution to all of 316 00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:22.679 this is actually the Trump gets bored, the US goes home, 317 00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:25.639 and then Europe actually does fully take over, because then 318 00:16:25.679 --> 00:16:28.679 you'd have a much more kind of equitable idea of uh, 319 00:16:29.240 --> 00:16:31.360 your support for Ukraine as being critical to Europe. 320 00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:37.320 Yeah, so I mean Intel, like all the security our 321 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:39.559 partners around the world, not just in Europe. Right, they 322 00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:43.360 rely up in somewhere as you and I did knows this, 323 00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:46.639 right because basically they teach a lot of their chiefs 324 00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:49.960 basically how to get an information from the CIA station chief. 325 00:16:50.559 --> 00:16:50.799 Right. 326 00:16:51.399 --> 00:16:53.799 And it's not just human intelligence, it's you know, the 327 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:58.000 functioning role D and I right, representative. So it's going 328 00:16:58.039 --> 00:16:59.600 to take a long time to replace that, but I 329 00:16:59.720 --> 00:17:04.680 believe from talking to several friends, both in Canada it's 330 00:17:04.680 --> 00:17:06.680 just forty minutes that way, and then in Europe and 331 00:17:06.720 --> 00:17:11.000 then even in the Far East they're planning to do so. 332 00:17:11.039 --> 00:17:13.880 They're planning to do so because we've already had a 333 00:17:13.920 --> 00:17:17.000 few circumstances with the US's threaten to cut off or 334 00:17:17.039 --> 00:17:20.920 have actually as cut off intelligence, and that shad a 335 00:17:20.920 --> 00:17:24.200 shot across the bow that you know. I mean, if 336 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:26.799 you put yourself any of us in their shoes, would 337 00:17:26.839 --> 00:17:28.400 you ever want to be in that position again? 338 00:17:29.279 --> 00:17:29.480 Right? 339 00:17:29.559 --> 00:17:32.839 So it's again I think it's going to create a 340 00:17:32.920 --> 00:17:37.680 more independent ally and partner group for the United States. 341 00:17:38.079 --> 00:17:41.880 But how we do it matters, and you know, we're 342 00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:43.720 going to have a lot less leverage in the future 343 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:47.519 for what we would like to see, which sometimes it 344 00:17:47.559 --> 00:17:50.240 needs cajoling with our allies and partners to go along with. 345 00:17:50.839 --> 00:17:54.400 When they've become completely independent and they did it in 346 00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:58.160 this manner, you know what I mean by force by 347 00:17:58.240 --> 00:18:01.359 threatening to cut off intel, you know, a war for 348 00:18:01.400 --> 00:18:01.960 example on. 349 00:18:03.559 --> 00:18:04.079 Ukraine. 350 00:18:05.039 --> 00:18:07.200 So I think that's going to be a pretty substantial 351 00:18:08.119 --> 00:18:10.880 issue going forward. I do think all these countries are 352 00:18:10.880 --> 00:18:13.480 looking at it. But it's not just Intel. What else 353 00:18:13.519 --> 00:18:16.960 did the Europeans rely heavily on Well, Europe does have 354 00:18:17.279 --> 00:18:20.279 nuclear weapons, but they don't have anything near what the 355 00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:22.680 US have, for like five hundred compared to a couple 356 00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:25.680 thousands in the US. So there's already countries, especially in 357 00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:27.759 the Nordic countries, in the countries that don't have them, 358 00:18:28.079 --> 00:18:30.720 they're talking about acquiring nuclear weapons. And now that we've 359 00:18:31.279 --> 00:18:35.839 jumped out of the New Start treaty essentially didn't renew 360 00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:39.519 it or extend it, that sends a message, right. It 361 00:18:39.559 --> 00:18:41.720 doesn't mean that every European country can end up with 362 00:18:41.720 --> 00:18:44.440 a nuclear weapon, but it certainly says that we are not, 363 00:18:45.440 --> 00:18:49.200 you know, entirely interested in stemming the potential for a 364 00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:52.160 nuclear arms base, right. And I don't know that we're 365 00:18:52.200 --> 00:18:56.000 even negotiating on a new one, although that was the issue, 366 00:18:56.079 --> 00:18:58.279 you know, including China and such. So I know that 367 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:01.759 I viewed these a lot together. So intel is an 368 00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:05.759 issue for the Europeans, all of their security is, and 369 00:19:05.799 --> 00:19:07.759 I think they're going to relook at it again. If 370 00:19:07.759 --> 00:19:09.480 we did this right, we come up with we come 371 00:19:09.519 --> 00:19:12.039 out with stronger partners, like we would be going to 372 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:15.440 our you know, fellow chiefs of UH you know, the 373 00:19:15.480 --> 00:19:18.359 Intel services and getting inform more information from them, right. 374 00:19:18.839 --> 00:19:20.720 But you know, one of the big issues, of course 375 00:19:20.759 --> 00:19:22.440 you just said, and that is a lot of our 376 00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:26.039 intel is up there, right so, and that is expensive. 377 00:19:26.400 --> 00:19:28.759 So they have to be ready to, uh, you know, 378 00:19:28.839 --> 00:19:31.240 start spending a lot more on their national security and defense, 379 00:19:31.279 --> 00:19:34.440 which might mean less you know, available for their own 380 00:19:34.440 --> 00:19:36.839 social programs. But that's the decision they have to make. 381 00:19:37.200 --> 00:19:38.799 But it seems like they're being forced to make it 382 00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:39.279 right now. 383 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:40.200 Andy. 384 00:19:40.200 --> 00:19:42.039 On the special operations side, one of the things that 385 00:19:42.160 --> 00:19:43.599 I was just in London for a couple of days 386 00:19:43.640 --> 00:19:45.640 and I you know, actually made it to the Venerable 387 00:19:45.720 --> 00:19:48.240 Special Forces there, which is kind of cool place. 388 00:19:50.680 --> 00:19:50.920 Uh. 389 00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:53.039 And and one of the things that you know, when 390 00:19:53.079 --> 00:19:55.640 you talk to European national security folks kind of on 391 00:19:55.680 --> 00:19:58.000 the you know, in the background, they're very hesitant, especially 392 00:19:58.000 --> 00:20:00.000 the bridge. The same thing as is the role for example, 393 00:20:00.160 --> 00:20:03.319 the British Special Operations community and SAS and others in Ukraine, 394 00:20:03.960 --> 00:20:06.039 who I think have done incredible work. I think they 395 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:08.880 actually were probably more forward leaning than the Americans. I 396 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:10.880 just based on the limits that the US placed on 397 00:20:10.920 --> 00:20:13.960 our folks. But talk a little bit about the Special 398 00:20:14.000 --> 00:20:18.440 operations capability of European governments, because I think that's that's 399 00:20:18.440 --> 00:20:20.279 something that we don't hear a lot about. 400 00:20:21.000 --> 00:20:22.640 No, but I guess no one writes books on it. 401 00:20:23.160 --> 00:20:26.000