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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Joel, Morning Bill. All right, we've been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about tariffs now this entire week. It has been a

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<v Speaker 1>seesaw with the President saying tariffs are kicking in, then

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<v Speaker 1>saying hold off on instituting tariffs, and then the last

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<v Speaker 1>day he goes, nope, I'm going back in on tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>And you've got tariffs of twenty five percent that are

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<v Speaker 1>hitting Canada, Mexico, twenty percent in China. Except because the

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<v Speaker 1>car industry was going to be affected first and foremost

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<v Speaker 1>and the heaviest between Canada and Mexico and the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>which is they're so interlaced, he said, Okay, we'll hold

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<v Speaker 1>that off for a month. So as that is an introduction,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go talk about spending in relationship to tariffs.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's going on, Joel, Yeah, So, well, it's amazing

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<v Speaker 2>how just kind of the general economic consensus on tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>has been has kind of been swept under the rug

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<v Speaker 2>right now, and we are seeing I think the tariff

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<v Speaker 2>idea is just it's not a good one and it's

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<v Speaker 2>going to have impact. We're already seeing that shakeout in

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<v Speaker 2>the economy, even predictions of stagflation starting to resurface. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think what Americans are seeing there's they're starting to

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<v Speaker 2>be fearful. They're nervous about what tariff implementation means and

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<v Speaker 2>the predictions of higher prices because those inevitably materialize in

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<v Speaker 2>an economy where tariffs are instituted. And so CNBC just

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<v Speaker 2>had this this survey and they found that the more

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<v Speaker 2>Americans one in five are are so called doom spending,

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<v Speaker 2>and so people are saying, well, higher prices are likely

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<v Speaker 2>around the corner, So I might as well just like

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<v Speaker 2>buy extra now, because I'm concerned that if I hold

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<v Speaker 2>off and by that thing weeks later or months later,

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to cost a heck of a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>because of these incoming tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>It's let me give you a quick story if I

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<v Speaker 1>get because I have experienced that firsthand. As you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Brazilian, or I was born in Brazil, and so

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<v Speaker 1>in my younger days i'd go to Brazil quite often,

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<v Speaker 1>and I went down there once in the time of

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<v Speaker 1>hyper inflation, much like Weimar Germany, when loaf of bread

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<v Speaker 1>would cost you a barrel full of money, where the

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<v Speaker 1>paper itself costs more than the money was worth. And

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<v Speaker 1>so I was in Brazil and visiting family, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>what was happening. Inflation was so I mean wiped out savings,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, pensions were wiped out. The only thing to

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<v Speaker 1>buy is hard goods. And in the morning you saw

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<v Speaker 1>a price of whatever, a refrigerator or a bag of oranges.

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<v Speaker 1>By the afternoon, the prices had risen five or ten percent.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's exactly what happened. Every dying people had

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<v Speaker 1>was going into hard goods and it was a disaster

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<v Speaker 1>for the country until it was able to come out

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<v Speaker 1>of it. And what you're saying is we may reach

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<v Speaker 1>that point, not hyper inflation, of course, not like yeah, but.

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<v Speaker 2>No, certainly not that. But we've never experienced something like

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<v Speaker 2>that in our I mean think about just even the

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<v Speaker 2>how people have reacted to increased inflation that is nothing

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<v Speaker 2>like what many of the South American countries like Brazil

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<v Speaker 2>have experienced over the past few years post COVID, and

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<v Speaker 2>how much how difficult that was for consumers to endure,

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<v Speaker 2>and how that led to essentially a political revolution to

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<v Speaker 2>a certain extent, knocking out the last administration. People wanted

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<v Speaker 2>to change. And it's because inflation is such a difficult

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<v Speaker 2>thing to endure, and it's again, it's nowhere near what

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<v Speaker 2>you experienced in Brazil, but uh. And then the other

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<v Speaker 2>thing that it causes there is this sort of like

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<v Speaker 2>self fulfilling prophecy where if people believe that prices are

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<v Speaker 2>going to go up, then they start to act in

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<v Speaker 2>that way by buying more stuff, by by pre purchasing

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<v Speaker 2>things that they would have otherwise held held off on buying.

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<v Speaker 2>And and then that leads to guess what, the cycle

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<v Speaker 2>continuing higher prices.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right, demand demand. The more demand, the more the

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<v Speaker 1>prices can be asked for, and it is a cycle.

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<v Speaker 2>That's why, like the economists and the FED are always

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<v Speaker 2>looking towards inflation expectations that consumers have because they want

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<v Speaker 2>to quell that. They're like, Okay, inflation might f bee

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<v Speaker 2>a little out of control, but what do people think

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<v Speaker 2>inflation is going to be a year from now? And

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<v Speaker 2>if that number takes higher, that's when they really start

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<v Speaker 2>to freak out, because if people expect it, that's when

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<v Speaker 2>they start to change their habits. And so I just

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<v Speaker 2>want people to know that, yes, we are kind of

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<v Speaker 2>in a period of economic uncertainty right now, with tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>with inflation still not fully resolved, and I just want

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<v Speaker 2>people to be careful about buying more stuff now because

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<v Speaker 2>they're expecting prices to be higher. I think that is

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<v Speaker 2>a recipe, especially especially if you're taking on debt to

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<v Speaker 2>buy those goods or to buy those services. Be careful

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<v Speaker 2>because I would rather see people save more, and I

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<v Speaker 2>would rather see people continue to invest to grow their

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<v Speaker 2>net worth and not say, let me just go out

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<v Speaker 2>there and rack up more credit card debt and buy

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<v Speaker 2>more stuff because it's going to get more expensive. Because

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<v Speaker 2>you know, especially with where credit card interest rates are

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<v Speaker 2>right now, if you're putting it on the credit card,

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<v Speaker 2>it's it's still a really bad find interview.

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<v Speaker 1>The other side of the coin is that is anything

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<v Speaker 1>you can pay for that is a fixed rate, a

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<v Speaker 1>mortgage payment that's fixed at two point eight percent or

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<v Speaker 1>even three point five percent, or a car payment, then

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<v Speaker 1>what happens is inflation helps you because it becomes cheaper

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<v Speaker 1>and cheaper and cheaper. By the way, we're a thirty

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<v Speaker 1>six trillion dollar debt national debt. The only way we're

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<v Speaker 1>ever going to be able to deal with it is

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<v Speaker 1>inflate ourselves out of it. It may take it may

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<v Speaker 1>take one hundred years, but that's what's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I think you make a good point, which

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<v Speaker 2>is which is why too when when I get asked

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<v Speaker 2>the question about paying off mortgage debt, my advice is

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<v Speaker 2>it's it depends on what your mortgage debt looks like, right,

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<v Speaker 2>But for the vast majority of people they have that

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<v Speaker 2>upper two's lower three sort of mortgage debt hanging around,

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<v Speaker 2>they can earn more by sticking that money in a

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<v Speaker 2>savings account. If you're comparing, you know, payoff mortgage debt

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<v Speaker 2>versus buying more stuff, then pay off the debt. But

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<v Speaker 2>if we're talking about they're just more productive things you

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<v Speaker 2>can do with your money, even non risky stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Of course the problem is do people put away

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<v Speaker 1>that money and invest it? Nobody does or very few

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<v Speaker 1>or very few people do, right, behavioral problem? No kidding,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, Joel. Student loan borrowers are kind of spinning.

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<v Speaker 1>What's going on? I mean there are two groups of

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<v Speaker 1>people that are spinning. Three groups. One illegal migrants not

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<v Speaker 1>doing well, two federal workers not sleeping well. Student loan

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<v Speaker 1>borrowers not so good either. What's going on?

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<v Speaker 2>This has been one of those things that's been tied

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<v Speaker 2>up in the courts, And there was just another ruling

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<v Speaker 2>recently that the Safe Plan, which was like the really

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<v Speaker 2>really generous repayment plan that the Biden administration instituted. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>they tried to kind of create blanket student loan forgiveness,

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<v Speaker 2>at least up to a certain point. That failed, and

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<v Speaker 2>then they were like, well, let's do forgive us by

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<v Speaker 2>another name. Let's institute a new repayment plan that creates

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<v Speaker 2>a much shorter timeline to forgive us and essentially brings

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<v Speaker 2>down payments substantially for borrowers. And that also has not

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<v Speaker 2>stood the test of time in the courts. And so

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<v Speaker 2>right now, man, student loan borrowers are in this massive

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<v Speaker 2>limbo space where maybebe they have signed up for the

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<v Speaker 2>Save Plan and now it's in limbo. They're not sure

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<v Speaker 2>what's going to happen. And you can't even go on

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<v Speaker 2>the Department of Education's website at this point and switch

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<v Speaker 2>to another forgiveness or another excuse me, student loan repayment plan.

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<v Speaker 2>And so there are a lot of folks out there

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<v Speaker 2>who are kind of not sure how to proceed, and

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<v Speaker 2>there are a lot of borrowers, especially because we think

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<v Speaker 2>about how long we punted student loan payments for basically

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<v Speaker 2>three and a half years, who aren't used to that

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<v Speaker 2>in their budget, and now they're like, they're like, oh crap,

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<v Speaker 2>I have to start paying my student loans again. They're

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<v Speaker 2>not used to it. And a lot of people have

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<v Speaker 2>not been paying their student loan balances to the tune

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<v Speaker 2>of millions of people, it seems like. And we're seeing

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<v Speaker 2>more and more people see credits score drops because they're

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<v Speaker 2>not making on time payment.

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<v Speaker 1>Trains themar student loans are concerned the moratorium on paying

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<v Speaker 1>them does interest a crew or everything was put on

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<v Speaker 1>hold until students could start paying back their loan.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, everything was put on hold essentially for those for

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<v Speaker 2>those three and a half years. And even people think

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<v Speaker 2>about people in the Public Service Student Loan Plan, those

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<v Speaker 2>are in PSLF. Those folks in particular are made out

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<v Speaker 2>like bandits because they weren't paying a dime, and yet

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<v Speaker 2>every single month that they weren't paying a dime was

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<v Speaker 2>counting towards that forgiveness timeline of ten years, and so

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<v Speaker 2>that was like for those people, it was incredible, and

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<v Speaker 2>a lot lot of people did really well under those times.

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<v Speaker 2>What I said, the whole time for every single month

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<v Speaker 2>essentially for all of those years, was make sure to

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<v Speaker 2>carve out that amount of money that's going towards your

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<v Speaker 2>student loans, sticking into savings. If you're doing well with savings,

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<v Speaker 2>invest some of it, payoff debt, do productive things so

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<v Speaker 2>that you come out of this three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>years ahead, so that you've made financial progress. A lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people didn't do that. They factored that, and they're spending.

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<v Speaker 2>And it makes sense because prices were going up to

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<v Speaker 2>inflation was hitting people hard, and they're like, great, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't have a student loan now that I can afford

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<v Speaker 2>at least to put that towards my bills. But then

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<v Speaker 2>they didn't have any sort of financial cushion on the backside,

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of people are in a much harder

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<v Speaker 2>position when it comes to paying their student loan debt

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<v Speaker 2>right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, are we only talking about federal student loans where

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<v Speaker 1>the government has loan money or these are private loans

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<v Speaker 1>where the government guarantees that money.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're talking about federal student loans. There are private

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<v Speaker 2>student loans. They're just a fraction of the overall student

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<v Speaker 2>loan market, though, and some people, if they refinanced at

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<v Speaker 2>the right time. They have, you know, incredibly low rate

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<v Speaker 2>on their student loans because they because they took it,

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<v Speaker 2>they took them away from being federal and they refinanced

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<v Speaker 2>them into a private student loan. But those also don't

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<v Speaker 2>come with the same benefits, and you don't have the

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<v Speaker 2>option to enroll in one of these income based repayment plans.

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<v Speaker 2>But then again, federal borrows right now can't really opt

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<v Speaker 2>into one of these different income based repayment plans either,

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<v Speaker 2>because the Department of Education is essentially taking that off

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<v Speaker 2>the website, and so it's a really awkward position to

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<v Speaker 2>be in as a student loan borrow. I think when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to talking to parents of kids who are

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<v Speaker 2>getting close to going to college, I think it's even

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<v Speaker 2>more important than ever to say, be careful how much

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<v Speaker 2>debt you take out. We don't know what the student

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<v Speaker 2>loan space is going to look like in the coming years,

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<v Speaker 2>and I just worry, you know, about people taking on

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<v Speaker 2>so much student loan debt and then they're not being

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<v Speaker 2>some sort of generous plan to you pay that offer

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<v Speaker 2>to find forgiveness. We just don't know where income based

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<v Speaker 2>repayment plans are going to go from here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. And I guess for those of you that want

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<v Speaker 1>to be a doctor, by the way and get into

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<v Speaker 1>a specialty, and maybe get into a super specialty being

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<v Speaker 1>a going through a fellowship, be prepared for six seven

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand dollars of student loan. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>wonderful real quickly. The affordabilities are what is that? And

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<v Speaker 1>are we getting one?

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<v Speaker 2>So it sounds like there's this new government position that's

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<v Speaker 2>just been created. And you know, a czar for everything

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<v Speaker 2>these days, but now there's going to be somebody appointed

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<v Speaker 2>to overseeing the prices of everything in this country as

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<v Speaker 2>they've kind of gotten out of whack. I'm curious to

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<v Speaker 2>see how this shakes out. I don't necessarily have a

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<v Speaker 2>ton of faith, especially when they're talking about we want

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<v Speaker 2>to lower prices on homes and cars and groceries and electronics.

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<v Speaker 2>And we live in a free market economy where it's

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<v Speaker 2>really hard for the government to have pricing impact, and

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<v Speaker 2>oftentimes when the government tries to involve itself in the

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<v Speaker 2>private markets, uh, it backfires. I will say, maybe the

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<v Speaker 2>one place the affordable affordabilities are could have some uh

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<v Speaker 2>they could make some some headway is in the healthcare front,

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<v Speaker 2>if they mandate or create more price transparency on that front.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think ultimately, uh, you know, listeners need to

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<v Speaker 2>become become their own affordabilities are and part of that

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<v Speaker 2>means listening to how the Money every Sunday, Bill.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, makes sense. And hopefully we get a cars ar

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<v Speaker 1>uh and a ZAR for alliteration.

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<v Speaker 2>Because I like cars are Ryan's sounds.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, it's very strong, very strong. And you're right, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>well we have ZAR, so why wouldn't we have others ours? Right? Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, Joel, thank you, you're right. Sunday How to

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<v Speaker 1>Money twelve to two pm. We'll catch you next Thursday.

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<v Speaker 1>And this Sunday sounds good.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Bill,