WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.200 --> 00:00:07.360 Thank you for listening to Depictions Media Radio. 2 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:28.879 Welcome to policy and Rights we show Welcome, welcomer, Policy 3 00:00:29.120 --> 00:00:54.000 Human Joy. 4 00:00:57.799 --> 00:01:01.600 Welcome back to policy and rates here in Depictions Media Radio. Okay, first, 5 00:01:01.719 --> 00:01:08.719 let's start with a WHO update, and it is about 6 00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:17.879 trending acute respiratory infections including human meta pneumo virus in 7 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:29.359 North America otherwise known as h MPV virus, and it 8 00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:33.560 is again starting in China. They're closely looking. A lot 9 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:38.239 of places are closely looking at China because of lockdowns 10 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:44.640 that are being seen and trying to assess the risk 11 00:01:46.079 --> 00:01:52.159 that China is actually having with this particular virus. So 12 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:56.400 sounding similar to again to COVID nineteen all over again 13 00:01:57.239 --> 00:02:02.400 for those of you who are trying to think based 14 00:02:02.480 --> 00:02:07.879 on according to WHO basic health response based on the 15 00:02:08.039 --> 00:02:13.439 expected increase of respiratory infections during the winter, Countries including China, 16 00:02:13.560 --> 00:02:17.599 have been providing health messages to the public on how 17 00:02:17.639 --> 00:02:23.280 to prevent the spread of respiratory infections and reduced the 18 00:02:23.599 --> 00:02:32.840 impact of disease. The WHO risk assessment temperature. In temperate climates, 19 00:02:33.360 --> 00:02:42.120 seasonal epidemics of common respiratory pathages, including infalenza, occur often 20 00:02:42.240 --> 00:02:48.319 during winter periods. The observed increases of acute respiratory infections 21 00:02:48.439 --> 00:02:57.520 are associated pathogens detections in many countries in northern Hemisphere 22 00:02:58.120 --> 00:03:02.039 in the recent weeks at this time of the year, 23 00:03:02.719 --> 00:03:07.599 which is also very true. Heye, you know, we're we're 24 00:03:07.879 --> 00:03:09.120 locked inside of each other. 25 00:03:09.360 --> 00:03:10.120 We have. 26 00:03:12.400 --> 00:03:20.840 Are UH climates being controlled by heating and in other 27 00:03:20.919 --> 00:03:23.759 things that are blowing for stare at us or whatever, 28 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:31.680 and in those filters pathoges can collect. So something something 29 00:03:33.280 --> 00:03:38.719 that is actually very true. Okay. The who advice for 30 00:03:38.719 --> 00:03:45.400 for this is the WZO. UH recommends the individuals in 31 00:03:45.560 --> 00:03:49.120 areas where it is winter to take normal precautions to 32 00:03:49.240 --> 00:03:55.159 prevent the spread and reduce risk opposed by respiratory pathogens, 33 00:03:55.280 --> 00:04:01.319 especially to those most vulnerable. People with mild symptoms should 34 00:04:01.360 --> 00:04:07.159 stay home and avoid infecting other people and rest. People 35 00:04:07.719 --> 00:04:12.919 at high risk or with complicated or severe symptoms should 36 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:17.199 seek medical care as soon as possible. Individuals should consider 37 00:04:17.879 --> 00:04:23.839 wearing a mask in crowded or poorly ventiveulated spaces, cover 38 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:28.319 costs and sneezes with a tissue or a bent elbow, 39 00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:36.839 practice regular hand washing, and get recommended vaccines as per 40 00:04:37.079 --> 00:04:46.480 efficient or local public health authorities. Advise the WHO advisors 41 00:04:46.519 --> 00:04:53.839 member states to maintain surveillance for all respiratory pathogens throughout 42 00:04:54.839 --> 00:05:07.120 and integrit it approach, considering country contexts, priorities, resources and capacities. 43 00:05:07.639 --> 00:05:13.040 The WHO has published a guide for such things to 44 00:05:14.319 --> 00:05:17.720 In other words, they're they're asking public health officials to 45 00:05:18.040 --> 00:05:21.519 track what is actually happening in their local areas so 46 00:05:21.560 --> 00:05:24.560 that they can so they can be reported back to 47 00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:31.959 them and they collect data on it. So best advice 48 00:05:32.279 --> 00:05:39.079 is to prevent such things from spreading the disease, washing hands, 49 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:42.720 all the all those common sense things that we usually do. Anyway, 50 00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:47.279 scope of the situation is in many countries in Northern Hemisphere, 51 00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:53.199 trends of acute respiratory infections increase at this time of year. 52 00:05:53.879 --> 00:05:59.399 These increase increases are typically caused by seasonal epidemics of 53 00:05:59.480 --> 00:06:06.480 respiratory pathogens such as influenza, respiratory cynical virus or RSV, 54 00:06:08.839 --> 00:06:20.519 and other common respiratory viruses including hmp V and as 55 00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:33.480 well as the mio plasma pneumonia. Many countries conduct routine 56 00:06:33.639 --> 00:06:41.519 surveillance for acute respiratory infections and common pathogens. Currently, some 57 00:06:41.560 --> 00:06:50.560 countries in temperate and Northern Hemisphere include influenza like illnesses 58 00:06:51.240 --> 00:07:00.800 and acute respiratory infections. Rates have increased in recent weeks 59 00:07:00.839 --> 00:07:12.040 above the normal baselines, following usual seasonal trends. The seasonal 60 00:07:12.040 --> 00:07:17.399 influenza activity is elevated in many countries in the northern 61 00:07:17.399 --> 00:07:24.519 hemisphere where surveillance data is available. Trends in RSV detections 62 00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:33.360 currently vary by region, and recently there has been a 63 00:07:33.839 --> 00:07:41.120 interest in the HMPV cases in China, including suggestions of 64 00:07:41.399 --> 00:07:49.560 hospitals being overwhelmed with cases. Is a commons HMPV is 65 00:07:49.600 --> 00:07:55.360 a common respiratory virus found to circulate in many countries 66 00:07:55.800 --> 00:08:03.639 in the wintertime through to spring, although not all countries 67 00:08:04.839 --> 00:08:10.560 routinely test and publish the data for the h mp 68 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:17.519 V virus. While some cases can be hospitalized with bronchitis 69 00:08:17.639 --> 00:08:24.319 or pneumonia, most people infected with the h m p 70 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:31.360 v UH have mild upper respiratory symptoms similar to the 71 00:08:31.399 --> 00:08:36.039 common cold, and recover in just a few days. So 72 00:08:37.080 --> 00:08:40.960 there's been a lot of news reports about this uh, 73 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:48.039 this virus, and again we just really need to follow 74 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:54.600 those common sense things and wash our hands if you 75 00:08:54.679 --> 00:08:59.320 have the sneeze or cough, you know, cough into the 76 00:08:59.399 --> 00:09:03.159 crook of your elbow so that it doesn't spread more 77 00:09:03.240 --> 00:09:05.720 onto your hands. Because you used to cough into your hands, 78 00:09:05.759 --> 00:09:11.440 you're more out to spread that virus onto surfaces. So 79 00:09:12.720 --> 00:09:18.120 latest report from WHO about the HMPV virus, which is 80 00:09:18.159 --> 00:09:27.799 also a common virus causing bronchitis and possibly pneumonia. So 81 00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:37.480 moving forward, we are going to hear from Daniel Smith. 82 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:42.639 So Alberta Premier Daniel Smith holds a news conference in 83 00:09:42.720 --> 00:09:48.799 Calgary to discuss the establishment of a new working group 84 00:09:48.879 --> 00:09:57.320 between provincial government and Enbridge with the aim of moving 85 00:09:57.399 --> 00:10:03.600 more Alberta oil and gas across Canada and the United States. 86 00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:10.679 She is joined by the Enbridge CEO, greg A Bell. 87 00:10:11.639 --> 00:10:18.679 So we'll hear more about that from the UN press room. 88 00:10:19.519 --> 00:10:27.039 Global growth stagnates at about two point eight percent for 89 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:32.679 twenty twenty five, below the pre pandemic levels, according to 90 00:10:32.840 --> 00:10:39.960 a press conference. And we're going to be hearing from 91 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:49.080 mister Lee John Joe, the Under Secretary for Economic and 92 00:10:49.320 --> 00:10:57.879 Social Affairs with the United Nations and the Director of 93 00:10:58.360 --> 00:11:04.240 Economic Analysis and Policy Division at the u n D 94 00:11:04.799 --> 00:11:18.759 e s A, with mister Chantau Mokahira and mister Hamad Rashid, 95 00:11:20.639 --> 00:11:27.480 Chief Global Economic Monitoring Branch Economic Analysis and Public Division 96 00:11:28.039 --> 00:11:31.600 at the u N d e s A. As they 97 00:11:31.639 --> 00:11:40.360 talk about economic developments globally and the report that they're 98 00:11:40.639 --> 00:11:46.000 going to be speaking about will also be launched regionally 99 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:54.320 in Bangkok, Beirut, Geneva, Mexico, Moscow, New Delhi early January. 100 00:11:54.360 --> 00:12:02.639 According to the u N Flagship Report released today January ninth, 101 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:08.039 the global economic growth is projected at two point eight 102 00:12:08.039 --> 00:12:14.159 percent for twenty twenty five. The World Economic Situation and 103 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:24.000 Perspective of twenty twenty five report shows A shows that 104 00:12:24.279 --> 00:12:31.360 despitewithstanding a series of mutually reinforcing shocks and global economic 105 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:36.200 growth has stagnated it and will remain below pre pandemic 106 00:12:36.320 --> 00:12:41.200 levels of three point two percent. The report was produced 107 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:47.960 by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, highlighting 108 00:12:48.679 --> 00:12:57.879 enduring impact of weak investments, sluggage projectivity, and high debt 109 00:12:58.000 --> 00:13:04.399 levels on global economic performances. It also will underscore the 110 00:13:04.440 --> 00:13:12.879 importance of global cooperation, prudent policies and lift growth and 111 00:13:13.039 --> 00:13:21.360 in place it on place it on stable, stable and 112 00:13:21.679 --> 00:13:30.200 equitable pathway that can accelerate the progress towards the SDGs. 113 00:13:30.799 --> 00:13:36.759 So why don't we listen in as we hear from 114 00:13:36.799 --> 00:13:41.200 the United Nations on this report, and then we'll move 115 00:13:41.639 --> 00:13:47.840 back to hearing. What a restatement from Danielle Smith. 116 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:02.720 Great, good afternoon, and thanks everyone for joining this launch 117 00:14:02.759 --> 00:14:06.559 of the World Economic Situation and Prospects Report, a flagship 118 00:14:06.679 --> 00:14:10.519 report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 119 00:14:10.919 --> 00:14:14.600 And we have with us three distinguished speakers, the Undersecreary 120 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:18.039 General for Economic and Social Affairs, mister Lee juin Juan, 121 00:14:19.759 --> 00:14:22.840 next to him, the Director of Economic Analysis and Policy 122 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:27.639 Division of Undessa, mister Chantanu Mukherji, and on the far 123 00:14:27.840 --> 00:14:31.559 end mister Hamid Rashid, the chief of the Global Economic 124 00:14:31.720 --> 00:14:36.080 Monitoring Branch in UN Dessa. So I think we'll get 125 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:39.480 started right away with some introductory remarks by mister Lee. 126 00:14:40.279 --> 00:14:44.080 Thank you, Thank you very much, well, distinguished friends of 127 00:14:44.120 --> 00:14:48.440 the press. Good morning to you, good afternoon, and happy 128 00:14:48.480 --> 00:14:52.120 New Year to all of you. Today that my Cortacterident 129 00:14:52.120 --> 00:14:53.960 and I are very pleased to work on all of 130 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:57.440 you to launch this twenty twenty five edition of the 131 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:04.639 World Economic Situation Prospect Report. As you know, this flagship 132 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:08.320 report is prepared by Desert Department of Economy and the 133 00:15:08.360 --> 00:15:12.799 Social Affairs in the partnership was actor under the five, 134 00:15:12.919 --> 00:15:17.440 the U and Regional Economic Commissions and the UN Tourism Organization. 135 00:15:17.720 --> 00:15:21.840 So the outset, let me take this opportunity to express 136 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:28.080 our sincere thanks for our partners I just want to 137 00:15:28.200 --> 00:15:32.399 highlight the one key observations before I go into the details. 138 00:15:32.919 --> 00:15:37.759 Let us our current assessment indicates that the water economy 139 00:15:37.799 --> 00:15:43.480 has largely avoided a broad based contraction despite the unprecedented 140 00:15:43.639 --> 00:15:47.519 shocks of the last few years and the most prolonged 141 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:52.559 period of the monetary tightening in the history. So for 142 00:15:52.639 --> 00:15:56.840 the twenty twenty five our projection is that the global 143 00:15:56.879 --> 00:16:00.240 growth will be around the two point eight percent. Led 144 00:16:00.279 --> 00:16:04.639 to the twenty twenty four lower inflation, monetary easing and 145 00:16:04.759 --> 00:16:09.320 the recovery of the international trade underpain, the list relatively 146 00:16:09.360 --> 00:16:15.159 stable outlook. Nevertheless, we know that this red remains well 147 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:18.919 below the pre pandemic average of the three point two 148 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:24.600 percent the recorded demoth over twenty ten to twenty nineteen. 149 00:16:26.120 --> 00:16:34.240 The recovery remains uneven, driven primarily by a few large economies. Subdue, 150 00:16:34.279 --> 00:16:39.840 the growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for the developing 151 00:16:39.840 --> 00:16:44.159 countries grossing in the over ninety percent of the least 152 00:16:44.279 --> 00:16:48.080 developed countries is projected to full shot of the seven 153 00:16:48.159 --> 00:16:53.759 percent the target needed for the achievement of the many SDGs. 154 00:16:58.919 --> 00:17:03.120 Since limited the physical space, weak investment, and the low 155 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:08.640 productivity growth continue to hinder the economic prospects for developing 156 00:17:08.680 --> 00:17:14.839 countries climate change and geopolitical tensions. Was there potentially for 157 00:17:14.920 --> 00:17:19.640 the spinning over the events into the economic performance post 158 00:17:19.799 --> 00:17:26.960 additional risks. Despite these challenges, our report highlights concrete the 159 00:17:27.079 --> 00:17:32.599 passways in which countries can work, both individually and in 160 00:17:32.720 --> 00:17:36.599 collaboration to place the water on a more rod bust 161 00:17:36.759 --> 00:17:42.720 pass towards the sustainable development. Addressing debt challenges, curbing illicit 162 00:17:42.880 --> 00:17:48.759 financial flows, and strengthening domestic resource mobilization can increase the 163 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:54.279 public revenues for investing in the SDGs. For many countries. 164 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:58.960 The rising global demand for the mineral for the minerals 165 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:03.720 critical for the energy transition presents an unique opportunity to 166 00:18:03.799 --> 00:18:08.680 stimulate the growth, create jobs, under reduce the poverty and inequality. 167 00:18:09.799 --> 00:18:12.359 While dear colleagues, his. 168 00:18:12.400 --> 00:18:17.759 Trade also reminds us that such opportunities must be carefully managed, 169 00:18:19.519 --> 00:18:26.839 supporting developing countries in leveraging those resources effectively balancing economic 170 00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:31.440 benefits with the imperatives of the inclusive social development and 171 00:18:31.720 --> 00:18:37.319 environmental sustainability can accelerate it SDG progress, not just saying 172 00:18:37.400 --> 00:18:42.519 these countries, but across the whole war. So, dear friends, 173 00:18:43.519 --> 00:18:49.039 the Respect twenty twenty five is aquald to action, rooted 174 00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:52.279 in its evidence based analysis of the current state of 175 00:18:52.319 --> 00:18:57.839 the economy as well as shortened forecasts. Urgent actions are 176 00:18:57.880 --> 00:19:01.519 needed to address the debt to sustain they challenges in 177 00:19:01.640 --> 00:19:07.680 many countries, especially the countries in the special situations, to 178 00:19:07.799 --> 00:19:12.599 close the gap in technology, financing, and infrastructure that hindered 179 00:19:12.880 --> 00:19:17.359 equitable growth, and to ensure that the accelerated energy transition 180 00:19:17.559 --> 00:19:21.960 reduces climate the risks for all of us. The challenges 181 00:19:22.039 --> 00:19:25.839 we face are complex, but the solutions are within our 182 00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:31.519 reach if we worked together. I trust that the twenty 183 00:19:31.559 --> 00:19:34.960 twenty five edition of the West was served as an 184 00:19:35.000 --> 00:19:40.720 insightful resource offering the guidance towards the building a more inclusive, resilient, 185 00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:45.839 and sustainable global economy. I apologize that I can't be 186 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:50.599 able to be with you to clarify or answer the questions, 187 00:19:50.599 --> 00:19:53.759 but that I trust my cotics I would do a 188 00:19:53.839 --> 00:19:57.160 good job on behalf of me, so that I invite 189 00:19:57.160 --> 00:19:59.559 my colleagues to share the further details of the report 190 00:19:59.640 --> 00:19:59.880 for you. 191 00:20:00.359 --> 00:20:02.319 Thank you, thank you. 192 00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:04.400 I really yeah, you know you have to leave for 193 00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:08.359 another engagement. Yes, thank you very much. I'll hand to 194 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:12.160 mister Mukherji then for them for some more remarks. 195 00:20:13.079 --> 00:20:15.960 Thanks Martina. I'd like to follow up on us U's 196 00:20:16.039 --> 00:20:20.039 remarks with a few additional details, and I'm organizing what 197 00:20:20.079 --> 00:20:23.839 I'm saying around three sort of broad ideas. The first 198 00:20:23.920 --> 00:20:26.799 is a little bit about the global economic situation, the 199 00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:30.599 second is special focus on what we are expecting for 200 00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:33.160 developing countries, and the third is how do we move 201 00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:37.200 forward on the SDGs. So the headline message, which you 202 00:20:37.319 --> 00:20:39.160 heard from a USC already is that we are in 203 00:20:39.160 --> 00:20:43.640 a period of stable subpower growth. And what's notable is 204 00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:45.839 that if you look at our forecasts and you also 205 00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:49.799 look at look back at what has been happening, we've 206 00:20:49.799 --> 00:20:52.680 had kind of five years of growth performance that's below 207 00:20:52.720 --> 00:20:56.079 the three point two percent average in the decade leading 208 00:20:56.119 --> 00:20:59.759 up to twenty nineteen. So this may sound a bit 209 00:20:59.839 --> 00:21:02.079 like what we were saying last year, but actually, if 210 00:21:02.119 --> 00:21:04.480 you lift the hood and take a peek at the engine, 211 00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:08.440 things are humming. One of these is that global inflation 212 00:21:08.759 --> 00:21:12.160 is expected to slow further, from an estimated four percent 213 00:21:12.200 --> 00:21:14.759 in twenty twenty four to three point four percent in 214 00:21:14.759 --> 00:21:17.839 twenty twenty five, and that means in twenty twenty five 215 00:21:17.880 --> 00:21:21.000 that's a drop of almost sixty percent relative to its 216 00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:26.079 peak in twenty twenty two, and in response, most central 217 00:21:26.079 --> 00:21:29.000 banks are lowering their rates. Of the one hundred plus 218 00:21:29.039 --> 00:21:31.519 that we track, about two thirds had already done so 219 00:21:31.640 --> 00:21:34.640 by the end of last year, roughly double from the 220 00:21:34.759 --> 00:21:39.359 end of the previous year. One big uncertain factor is 221 00:21:39.400 --> 00:21:43.319 actually the duration and extent of the easing, because inflationory 222 00:21:43.319 --> 00:21:47.759 pressures continue to lurk, and particularly since the policy decisions 223 00:21:47.799 --> 00:21:49.920 of the major central banks such as the FED and 224 00:21:49.960 --> 00:21:53.079 the ECB kind of riverbrate across the world. This is 225 00:21:53.119 --> 00:21:58.119 a significant source of uncertainty as we enter this year. Nevertheless, 226 00:21:59.079 --> 00:22:03.240 the easing has already led to modest turnarounds in investment 227 00:22:03.799 --> 00:22:07.279 and in cross border financing in twenty twenty four, which 228 00:22:07.359 --> 00:22:10.559 is after a two year slump, and we have also 229 00:22:10.559 --> 00:22:13.799 seen a significant rebound in global trade. Will I'm sure 230 00:22:13.920 --> 00:22:17.519 talk about that in both gods and services. Now that's 231 00:22:17.559 --> 00:22:21.079 a global picture, but for developing countries that continue to 232 00:22:21.119 --> 00:22:25.920 be appreciable differences visa we developed once. For developing countries, 233 00:22:25.960 --> 00:22:28.920 our forecast is four point three percent in twenty twenty 234 00:22:29.000 --> 00:22:31.359 five and four point two percent in twenty twenty six, 235 00:22:33.039 --> 00:22:36.200 remaining well below the five point two percent average in 236 00:22:36.240 --> 00:22:40.680 the previous decade. Now, in comparative terms, this gap with 237 00:22:40.839 --> 00:22:44.519 respect to the pre pandemic trend is larger for developing 238 00:22:44.519 --> 00:22:48.000 countries than developed countries, in other words, slower to catch up. 239 00:22:48.960 --> 00:22:52.839 And while inflation is trending downwards in developing countries too, 240 00:22:53.480 --> 00:22:57.240 it remains noticeably higher. Is estimated to be about six 241 00:22:57.279 --> 00:22:59.920 percent in twenty four and projected at five point one 242 00:23:00.000 --> 00:23:03.519 one percent in twenty five. These inflation numbers are one 243 00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:06.720 and a half times those for developed countries, and they've 244 00:23:06.720 --> 00:23:10.440 been persisting. And that's a sign of how severe the 245 00:23:10.440 --> 00:23:13.839 cost of living crisis is for most of us outside 246 00:23:13.880 --> 00:23:17.839 of this room. And you know, we might say that 247 00:23:17.880 --> 00:23:20.960 there's subpower growth in both developed and developing countries. There's 248 00:23:20.960 --> 00:23:26.240 been monetary tightening, so isn't there some kind of parity. Well, actually, 249 00:23:26.240 --> 00:23:30.799 developing countries face far more severe constraints. If you in 250 00:23:30.839 --> 00:23:34.680 twenty twenty four, if you look at the amount of 251 00:23:34.720 --> 00:23:38.480 public money that was used to service debt to pay 252 00:23:38.480 --> 00:23:43.160 off interest. The media and developing country was eleven point 253 00:23:43.240 --> 00:23:46.240 one percent of its revenues went for this. That's more 254 00:23:46.279 --> 00:23:50.039 than four times the amount for the media and developed country. 255 00:23:51.079 --> 00:23:54.359 African country is actually allocated over a quarter of their 256 00:23:54.400 --> 00:23:57.359 revenue Z on their own average, which leaves very little 257 00:23:57.559 --> 00:24:02.680 for meaningful investment in the STGES. Even among developing countries 258 00:24:02.720 --> 00:24:05.000 as are used. She said, there are variations, with the 259 00:24:05.079 --> 00:24:07.920 more vulnerable, such as the least developed countries, tending to 260 00:24:07.960 --> 00:24:12.519 be systematically worse in relative terms. So what does this 261 00:24:12.599 --> 00:24:14.440 mean for the STGs? All of it is that the 262 00:24:14.480 --> 00:24:18.720 prognosis is challenging. Although we've had good news, modestly good 263 00:24:18.759 --> 00:24:22.519 news in terms of things like extreme poverty rates returning 264 00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:28.079 to pre pandemic averages, the way forward is not so straightforward. 265 00:24:28.799 --> 00:24:31.519 There have been cumulative setbacks over the past few years. 266 00:24:32.440 --> 00:24:35.599 Growth expectations as you're seeing have been modest, and there 267 00:24:35.599 --> 00:24:39.680 are significant downside risks from climate shocks or spillovers of 268 00:24:39.720 --> 00:24:45.039 geopolitical tensions. However, at the same time, the overall expectation 269 00:24:45.200 --> 00:24:47.640 that there will be stable growth in the midst of 270 00:24:47.680 --> 00:24:51.799 all this divergence means that there is really a scope 271 00:24:51.920 --> 00:24:56.119 for international cooperation that can combine with individual country efforts. 272 00:24:56.680 --> 00:24:59.960 The report has detailed recommendations. My colleague Amid will become 273 00:25:00.319 --> 00:25:04.319 several of them. I just want to highlight a little 274 00:25:04.319 --> 00:25:08.839 bit more. Apart from the resolving the public debt burdens issue, 275 00:25:08.839 --> 00:25:11.240 which has already come up and which we expect will 276 00:25:11.279 --> 00:25:13.680 be taken up in fifty and other important for he 277 00:25:13.759 --> 00:25:18.240 as well is about accelerating the pace of the just 278 00:25:18.400 --> 00:25:25.960 energy transition, so the transition itself benefits all and if 279 00:25:25.960 --> 00:25:29.160 we can ensure that developing countries with the minerals needed 280 00:25:29.200 --> 00:25:33.000 to drive the transition can turn these resources into STG gains, 281 00:25:33.319 --> 00:25:36.279 that is a significant win. The reason we're bringing this 282 00:25:36.480 --> 00:25:40.200 up is because many of the countries that are identified 283 00:25:40.200 --> 00:25:44.119 as having significant amounts of these minerals are also home 284 00:25:44.160 --> 00:25:47.359 to some of the largest populations living in poverty and inequality. 285 00:25:47.759 --> 00:25:50.079 So if you get this right, it could open the 286 00:25:50.079 --> 00:25:55.000 doors to transformative results. Experience with natural resource led development 287 00:25:55.119 --> 00:25:58.720 indicates that such outcomes can't be guaranteed, they can often 288 00:25:58.759 --> 00:26:03.240 turn around. There is a scope for enabling them through 289 00:26:03.319 --> 00:26:07.119 multi stakeholder efforts. For more details and for a much 290 00:26:07.160 --> 00:26:09.960 more in depth look, handing over to now thank you. 291 00:26:10.480 --> 00:26:12.880 Thank you, Chateageau. Good afternoon, colleagues. 292 00:26:13.599 --> 00:26:16.839 Let me begin by saying that the Wall economy is 293 00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:22.119 on a stable and steady growth trajectory. Having said that, 294 00:26:22.279 --> 00:26:25.640 you know, we need to qualify. Obviously there are some challenges. 295 00:26:27.640 --> 00:26:30.400 The economy is not in the best state of the world. 296 00:26:30.519 --> 00:26:34.200 It's not in the worst state either. It's the growth 297 00:26:34.599 --> 00:26:37.440 we have projected for this year two point eight percent 298 00:26:37.680 --> 00:26:41.960 and slight improvement in next year in twenty twenty sixty 299 00:26:42.000 --> 00:26:42.920 two point nine percent. 300 00:26:43.000 --> 00:26:44.119 That's for global growth. 301 00:26:44.880 --> 00:26:49.440 Three points to underscore here, First, that Wall economy avoided 302 00:26:50.279 --> 00:26:53.839 a much anticipated, much feared as sort of a hard 303 00:26:53.920 --> 00:26:57.000 lending that we was expected in twenty twenty three, and 304 00:26:57.039 --> 00:27:00.720 that expectation persisted in twenty twenty for as well. That 305 00:27:00.799 --> 00:27:03.680 there can be some kind of a contraction that has 306 00:27:04.079 --> 00:27:05.240 was avoided. 307 00:27:06.240 --> 00:27:08.160 Moving the slides. 308 00:27:08.200 --> 00:27:12.440 And the second point is that post pandemic growth has 309 00:27:12.440 --> 00:27:15.759 already been said, that it remains below the pre pandemic 310 00:27:15.799 --> 00:27:18.839 average of three point two percent that we had between 311 00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:22.319 twenty ten and twenty nineteen, and that growth gap is 312 00:27:22.400 --> 00:27:26.400 quite significant and it is a reason for us to 313 00:27:26.480 --> 00:27:30.400 look at how policies can be calibrated to boost growth 314 00:27:30.519 --> 00:27:35.200 to pre pandemic levels. And the third issue is that, 315 00:27:35.319 --> 00:27:39.279 of course there are significant some headwinds that we cannot ignore. 316 00:27:40.480 --> 00:27:43.880 One of the head winds is that uncertainties and trade 317 00:27:43.920 --> 00:27:46.480 tensions that we see already there. 318 00:27:47.000 --> 00:27:48.000 We see. 319 00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:52.440 Shrinking fiscal space in many countries, especially in developing countries, 320 00:27:52.759 --> 00:27:56.359 and on top of that, we see a growing climate 321 00:27:56.440 --> 00:27:58.960 crisis climate risks in many parts of the world. 322 00:28:00.000 --> 00:28:01.799 And on the positive side. 323 00:28:01.559 --> 00:28:06.319 Of course, with inflation falling, we see some monetary using 324 00:28:06.799 --> 00:28:10.400 already began and it will continue, probably in twenty twenty 325 00:28:10.400 --> 00:28:13.920 five to a larger extent, and that would provide some respite, 326 00:28:13.960 --> 00:28:14.880 some support. 327 00:28:14.559 --> 00:28:17.000 For stimulating growth going forward. 328 00:28:18.359 --> 00:28:21.319 Now let's look at the growth performance across regions, and 329 00:28:21.319 --> 00:28:23.839 when you talk about economic growth, we think about what 330 00:28:23.880 --> 00:28:26.720 does it mean for economic development. Growth and development are 331 00:28:26.720 --> 00:28:30.519 not necessarily one on one. When you talk about economic 332 00:28:30.559 --> 00:28:33.240 impact of development impact of growth. We need to look 333 00:28:33.240 --> 00:28:36.319 at park capital growth performance, and there we see quite 334 00:28:36.319 --> 00:28:40.720 a bit of variation across regions, and we see especially 335 00:28:41.400 --> 00:28:45.720 except for South Asia region, in twenty twenty four, all 336 00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:50.240 the regions had park capital growth rate below their pre 337 00:28:50.359 --> 00:28:55.000 pandemic averages. Most striking was the growth rate that we 338 00:28:55.079 --> 00:28:58.039 saw in Africa in twenty twenty four, which is almost 339 00:28:58.039 --> 00:29:01.559 an half a percentage point GDP growth rate, not enough 340 00:29:01.599 --> 00:29:05.039 to reduce poverty, not enough to reduce all these systemic 341 00:29:05.079 --> 00:29:08.640 issues that challenges that we see in those countries, and 342 00:29:08.680 --> 00:29:11.599 also regionally, if you look at Western Asia and other 343 00:29:11.640 --> 00:29:16.720 other regions, Latin American Caribbean also growth performance was subpar 344 00:29:17.480 --> 00:29:21.720 relative to pre pandemic levels. We see some improvements in 345 00:29:21.759 --> 00:29:25.960 twenty twenty five on part capita terms, but not significant. 346 00:29:26.480 --> 00:29:30.960 In some regions, we'll see some improvement but not broad 347 00:29:31.000 --> 00:29:34.319 based in terms of the most vulnerable group of countries. 348 00:29:34.400 --> 00:29:37.759 And we see that as seeds small island developing states, 349 00:29:37.759 --> 00:29:40.759 they did relatively well in twenty twenty four and would 350 00:29:40.759 --> 00:29:43.319 probably do well in twenty twenty five as well because 351 00:29:43.359 --> 00:29:48.599 of the recovery quick recovery in tourism many of these countries. Inflation, 352 00:29:48.720 --> 00:29:52.680 I would not go into the details. There's again there's 353 00:29:52.759 --> 00:29:56.759 quite a bit of variation betn't developed and doubling countries 354 00:29:57.960 --> 00:30:03.079 that came up. So one of the things that we 355 00:30:03.160 --> 00:30:07.640 have to look at is that this trend is inflation 356 00:30:07.720 --> 00:30:11.240 is are trended downward across the board, with some exceptions, 357 00:30:11.720 --> 00:30:14.200 especially if you look at the regional variations in inflation. 358 00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:18.640 Still Africa's inflation is double digit on average, which is 359 00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:24.119 still quite worrisome. And also we also see high inflation 360 00:30:25.200 --> 00:30:32.200 in Western Asia as well, sixteen percent average inflation. And 361 00:30:32.279 --> 00:30:35.440 with that inflation in many parts of the world, especially 362 00:30:35.440 --> 00:30:39.880 where there's a significant amount of poverty, we are witnessing 363 00:30:40.079 --> 00:30:43.880 simultaneous food in security problem and the cost of living crisis. 364 00:30:44.200 --> 00:30:45.200 And that is. 365 00:30:45.680 --> 00:30:49.000 The challenge with low growth and communition of low growth 366 00:30:49.039 --> 00:30:52.799 and high inflation where employee job creation is not sufficient 367 00:30:53.119 --> 00:30:55.200 to live the income level of those people where the 368 00:30:55.200 --> 00:31:00.680 inflation is actually cutting back their purchasing power, double wormy 369 00:31:01.119 --> 00:31:05.519 on both sides. So poverty reduction in many countries, although 370 00:31:05.559 --> 00:31:09.759 we have reached the pre pandemic level of poverty, but 371 00:31:09.880 --> 00:31:13.599 it's slow. Poverty reduction. Piece of poverty reduction is slow 372 00:31:13.799 --> 00:31:17.680 in most parts of the world. Global trade that's where 373 00:31:17.720 --> 00:31:22.279 the good news is. It rebounded sharply in twenty twenty four, 374 00:31:24.079 --> 00:31:27.319 reach three point four percent growth rate compared to only 375 00:31:27.359 --> 00:31:30.880 point nine percent the previous year in twenty twenty three. 376 00:31:31.480 --> 00:31:35.759 Massive rebound and that is quite a was it good 377 00:31:35.799 --> 00:31:38.799 news for the global economy, and we expect trade to 378 00:31:38.839 --> 00:31:44.440 remain strong in twenty twenty five with some variation. Of course, 379 00:31:45.119 --> 00:31:48.000 investment also picked up in twenty twenty four, and we 380 00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:53.240 continue to expect some investment momentum, especially given the low 381 00:31:53.279 --> 00:31:57.559 interest rates probably would support investment in many parts of 382 00:31:57.599 --> 00:32:01.599 the world. Level markets again mixed picture between developed and 383 00:32:01.640 --> 00:32:06.559 developing countries. Developed countries recovered very quickly from the pandemic 384 00:32:06.599 --> 00:32:10.279 related shocks to the employment. Actually, total employment in developed 385 00:32:10.319 --> 00:32:13.680 countries was three point six percent higher than they had 386 00:32:13.839 --> 00:32:19.119 it was the during the pre pandemic period, and the 387 00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:23.200 same with liver forced participation rate. Female participation rate actually 388 00:32:23.240 --> 00:32:26.200 increased significantly, but the story is very different for the 389 00:32:26.240 --> 00:32:27.240 developing countries. 390 00:32:27.440 --> 00:32:30.200 Lebel market is still quick. 391 00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:33.440 In some countries, especially in sub Southern Africa South Africa, 392 00:32:33.519 --> 00:32:38.039 unemployment rate is over thirty percent. Female participation rate actually 393 00:32:38.599 --> 00:32:41.680 when in the opposite direction in many developing countries from 394 00:32:41.960 --> 00:32:45.839 fifty four percent in twenty nineteen to fifty one percent 395 00:32:46.400 --> 00:32:51.680 in twenty twenty four. And another important indicator our point 396 00:32:51.720 --> 00:32:54.119 of concern for US is that youth unemployment in many 397 00:32:54.119 --> 00:32:58.240 parts of the world remains very high elevated neat one 398 00:32:58.640 --> 00:33:03.720 indicator that we observe and not in employment, education and training. 399 00:33:04.119 --> 00:33:07.039 That is also significantly high in some cases over twenty 400 00:33:07.039 --> 00:33:11.599 five percent in South Asia, which is also a concerning trend. 401 00:33:15.079 --> 00:33:18.200