Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to Depictions Media Radio.
Speaker 2: Welcome to policy and Rights we show Welcome, welcomer, Policy
Speaker 2: Human Joy.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to policy and rates here in Depictions Media Radio. Okay, first,
Speaker 1: let's start with a WHO update, and it is about
Speaker 1: trending acute respiratory infections including human meta pneumo virus in
Speaker 1: North America otherwise known as h MPV virus, and it
Speaker 1: is again starting in China. They're closely looking. A lot
Speaker 1: of places are closely looking at China because of lockdowns
Speaker 1: that are being seen and trying to assess the risk
Speaker 1: that China is actually having with this particular virus. So
Speaker 1: sounding similar to again to COVID nineteen all over again
Speaker 1: for those of you who are trying to think based
Speaker 1: on according to WHO basic health response based on the
Speaker 1: expected increase of respiratory infections during the winter, Countries including China,
Speaker 1: have been providing health messages to the public on how
Speaker 1: to prevent the spread of respiratory infections and reduced the
Speaker 1: impact of disease. The WHO risk assessment temperature. In temperate climates,
Speaker 1: seasonal epidemics of common respiratory pathages, including infalenza, occur often
Speaker 1: during winter periods. The observed increases of acute respiratory infections
Speaker 1: are associated pathogens detections in many countries in northern Hemisphere
Speaker 1: in the recent weeks at this time of the year,
Speaker 1: which is also very true. Heye, you know, we're we're
Speaker 1: locked inside of each other.
Speaker 2: We have.
Speaker 1: Are UH climates being controlled by heating and in other
Speaker 1: things that are blowing for stare at us or whatever,
Speaker 1: and in those filters pathoges can collect. So something something
Speaker 1: that is actually very true. Okay. The who advice for
Speaker 1: for this is the WZO. UH recommends the individuals in
Speaker 1: areas where it is winter to take normal precautions to
Speaker 1: prevent the spread and reduce risk opposed by respiratory pathogens,
Speaker 1: especially to those most vulnerable. People with mild symptoms should
Speaker 1: stay home and avoid infecting other people and rest. People
Speaker 1: at high risk or with complicated or severe symptoms should
Speaker 1: seek medical care as soon as possible. Individuals should consider
Speaker 1: wearing a mask in crowded or poorly ventiveulated spaces, cover
Speaker 1: costs and sneezes with a tissue or a bent elbow,
Speaker 1: practice regular hand washing, and get recommended vaccines as per
Speaker 1: efficient or local public health authorities. Advise the WHO advisors
Speaker 1: member states to maintain surveillance for all respiratory pathogens throughout
Speaker 1: and integrit it approach, considering country contexts, priorities, resources and capacities.
Speaker 1: The WHO has published a guide for such things to
Speaker 1: In other words, they're they're asking public health officials to
Speaker 1: track what is actually happening in their local areas so
Speaker 1: that they can so they can be reported back to
Speaker 1: them and they collect data on it. So best advice
Speaker 1: is to prevent such things from spreading the disease, washing hands,
Speaker 1: all the all those common sense things that we usually do. Anyway,
Speaker 1: scope of the situation is in many countries in Northern Hemisphere,
Speaker 1: trends of acute respiratory infections increase at this time of year.
Speaker 1: These increase increases are typically caused by seasonal epidemics of
Speaker 1: respiratory pathogens such as influenza, respiratory cynical virus or RSV,
Speaker 1: and other common respiratory viruses including hmp V and as
Speaker 1: well as the mio plasma pneumonia. Many countries conduct routine
Speaker 1: surveillance for acute respiratory infections and common pathogens. Currently, some
Speaker 1: countries in temperate and Northern Hemisphere include influenza like illnesses
Speaker 1: and acute respiratory infections. Rates have increased in recent weeks
Speaker 1: above the normal baselines, following usual seasonal trends. The seasonal
Speaker 1: influenza activity is elevated in many countries in the northern
Speaker 1: hemisphere where surveillance data is available. Trends in RSV detections
Speaker 1: currently vary by region, and recently there has been a
Speaker 1: interest in the HMPV cases in China, including suggestions of
Speaker 1: hospitals being overwhelmed with cases. Is a commons HMPV is
Speaker 1: a common respiratory virus found to circulate in many countries
Speaker 1: in the wintertime through to spring, although not all countries
Speaker 1: routinely test and publish the data for the h mp
Speaker 1: V virus. While some cases can be hospitalized with bronchitis
Speaker 1: or pneumonia, most people infected with the h m p
Speaker 1: v UH have mild upper respiratory symptoms similar to the
Speaker 1: common cold, and recover in just a few days. So
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of news reports about this uh,
Speaker 1: this virus, and again we just really need to follow
Speaker 1: those common sense things and wash our hands if you
Speaker 1: have the sneeze or cough, you know, cough into the
Speaker 1: crook of your elbow so that it doesn't spread more
Speaker 1: onto your hands. Because you used to cough into your hands,
Speaker 1: you're more out to spread that virus onto surfaces. So
Speaker 1: latest report from WHO about the HMPV virus, which is
Speaker 1: also a common virus causing bronchitis and possibly pneumonia. So
Speaker 1: moving forward, we are going to hear from Daniel Smith.
Speaker 1: So Alberta Premier Daniel Smith holds a news conference in
Speaker 1: Calgary to discuss the establishment of a new working group
Speaker 1: between provincial government and Enbridge with the aim of moving
Speaker 1: more Alberta oil and gas across Canada and the United States.
Speaker 1: She is joined by the Enbridge CEO, greg A Bell.
Speaker 1: So we'll hear more about that from the UN press room.
Speaker 1: Global growth stagnates at about two point eight percent for
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, below the pre pandemic levels, according to
Speaker 1: a press conference. And we're going to be hearing from
Speaker 1: mister Lee John Joe, the Under Secretary for Economic and
Speaker 1: Social Affairs with the United Nations and the Director of
Speaker 1: Economic Analysis and Policy Division at the u n D
Speaker 1: e s A, with mister Chantau Mokahira and mister Hamad Rashid,
Speaker 1: Chief Global Economic Monitoring Branch Economic Analysis and Public Division
Speaker 1: at the u N d e s A. As they
Speaker 1: talk about economic developments globally and the report that they're
Speaker 1: going to be speaking about will also be launched regionally
Speaker 1: in Bangkok, Beirut, Geneva, Mexico, Moscow, New Delhi early January.
Speaker 1: According to the u N Flagship Report released today January ninth,
Speaker 1: the global economic growth is projected at two point eight
Speaker 1: percent for twenty twenty five. The World Economic Situation and
Speaker 1: Perspective of twenty twenty five report shows A shows that
Speaker 1: despitewithstanding a series of mutually reinforcing shocks and global economic
Speaker 1: growth has stagnated it and will remain below pre pandemic
Speaker 1: levels of three point two percent. The report was produced
Speaker 1: by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, highlighting
Speaker 1: enduring impact of weak investments, sluggage projectivity, and high debt
Speaker 1: levels on global economic performances. It also will underscore the
Speaker 1: importance of global cooperation, prudent policies and lift growth and
Speaker 1: in place it on place it on stable, stable and
Speaker 1: equitable pathway that can accelerate the progress towards the SDGs.
Speaker 1: So why don't we listen in as we hear from
Speaker 1: the United Nations on this report, and then we'll move
Speaker 1: back to hearing. What a restatement from Danielle Smith.
Speaker 3: Great, good afternoon, and thanks everyone for joining this launch
Speaker 3: of the World Economic Situation and Prospects Report, a flagship
Speaker 3: report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Speaker 3: And we have with us three distinguished speakers, the Undersecreary
Speaker 3: General for Economic and Social Affairs, mister Lee juin Juan,
Speaker 3: next to him, the Director of Economic Analysis and Policy
Speaker 3: Division of Undessa, mister Chantanu Mukherji, and on the far
Speaker 3: end mister Hamid Rashid, the chief of the Global Economic
Speaker 3: Monitoring Branch in UN Dessa. So I think we'll get
Speaker 3: started right away with some introductory remarks by mister Lee.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Thank you very much, well, distinguished friends of
Speaker 4: the press. Good morning to you, good afternoon, and happy
Speaker 4: New Year to all of you. Today that my Cortacterident
Speaker 4: and I are very pleased to work on all of
Speaker 4: you to launch this twenty twenty five edition of the
Speaker 4: World Economic Situation Prospect Report. As you know, this flagship
Speaker 4: report is prepared by Desert Department of Economy and the
Speaker 4: Social Affairs in the partnership was actor under the five,
Speaker 4: the U and Regional Economic Commissions and the UN Tourism Organization.
Speaker 4: So the outset, let me take this opportunity to express
Speaker 4: our sincere thanks for our partners I just want to
Speaker 4: highlight the one key observations before I go into the details.
Speaker 4: Let us our current assessment indicates that the water economy
Speaker 4: has largely avoided a broad based contraction despite the unprecedented
Speaker 4: shocks of the last few years and the most prolonged
Speaker 4: period of the monetary tightening in the history. So for
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty five our projection is that the global
Speaker 4: growth will be around the two point eight percent. Led
Speaker 4: to the twenty twenty four lower inflation, monetary easing and
Speaker 4: the recovery of the international trade underpain, the list relatively
Speaker 4: stable outlook. Nevertheless, we know that this red remains well
Speaker 4: below the pre pandemic average of the three point two
Speaker 4: percent the recorded demoth over twenty ten to twenty nineteen.
Speaker 4: The recovery remains uneven, driven primarily by a few large economies. Subdue,
Speaker 4: the growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for the developing
Speaker 4: countries grossing in the over ninety percent of the least
Speaker 4: developed countries is projected to full shot of the seven
Speaker 4: percent the target needed for the achievement of the many SDGs.
Speaker 4: Since limited the physical space, weak investment, and the low
Speaker 4: productivity growth continue to hinder the economic prospects for developing
Speaker 4: countries climate change and geopolitical tensions. Was there potentially for
Speaker 4: the spinning over the events into the economic performance post
Speaker 4: additional risks. Despite these challenges, our report highlights concrete the
Speaker 4: passways in which countries can work, both individually and in
Speaker 4: collaboration to place the water on a more rod bust
Speaker 4: pass towards the sustainable development. Addressing debt challenges, curbing illicit
Speaker 4: financial flows, and strengthening domestic resource mobilization can increase the
Speaker 4: public revenues for investing in the SDGs. For many countries.
Speaker 4: The rising global demand for the mineral for the minerals
Speaker 4: critical for the energy transition presents an unique opportunity to
Speaker 4: stimulate the growth, create jobs, under reduce the poverty and inequality.
Speaker 5: While dear colleagues, his.
Speaker 4: Trade also reminds us that such opportunities must be carefully managed,
Speaker 4: supporting developing countries in leveraging those resources effectively balancing economic
Speaker 4: benefits with the imperatives of the inclusive social development and
Speaker 4: environmental sustainability can accelerate it SDG progress, not just saying
Speaker 4: these countries, but across the whole war. So, dear friends,
Speaker 4: the Respect twenty twenty five is aquald to action, rooted
Speaker 4: in its evidence based analysis of the current state of
Speaker 4: the economy as well as shortened forecasts. Urgent actions are
Speaker 4: needed to address the debt to sustain they challenges in
Speaker 4: many countries, especially the countries in the special situations, to
Speaker 4: close the gap in technology, financing, and infrastructure that hindered
Speaker 4: equitable growth, and to ensure that the accelerated energy transition
Speaker 4: reduces climate the risks for all of us. The challenges
Speaker 4: we face are complex, but the solutions are within our
Speaker 4: reach if we worked together. I trust that the twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five edition of the West was served as an
Speaker 4: insightful resource offering the guidance towards the building a more inclusive, resilient,
Speaker 4: and sustainable global economy. I apologize that I can't be
Speaker 4: able to be with you to clarify or answer the questions,
Speaker 4: but that I trust my cotics I would do a
Speaker 4: good job on behalf of me, so that I invite
Speaker 4: my colleagues to share the further details of the report
Speaker 4: for you.
Speaker 5: Thank you, thank you.
Speaker 3: I really yeah, you know you have to leave for
Speaker 3: another engagement. Yes, thank you very much. I'll hand to
Speaker 3: mister Mukherji then for them for some more remarks.
Speaker 6: Thanks Martina. I'd like to follow up on us U's
Speaker 6: remarks with a few additional details, and I'm organizing what
Speaker 6: I'm saying around three sort of broad ideas. The first
Speaker 6: is a little bit about the global economic situation, the
Speaker 6: second is special focus on what we are expecting for
Speaker 6: developing countries, and the third is how do we move
Speaker 6: forward on the SDGs. So the headline message, which you
Speaker 6: heard from a USC already is that we are in
Speaker 6: a period of stable subpower growth. And what's notable is
Speaker 6: that if you look at our forecasts and you also
Speaker 6: look at look back at what has been happening, we've
Speaker 6: had kind of five years of growth performance that's below
Speaker 6: the three point two percent average in the decade leading
Speaker 6: up to twenty nineteen. So this may sound a bit
Speaker 6: like what we were saying last year, but actually, if
Speaker 6: you lift the hood and take a peek at the engine,
Speaker 6: things are humming. One of these is that global inflation
Speaker 6: is expected to slow further, from an estimated four percent
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four to three point four percent in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five, and that means in twenty twenty five
Speaker 6: that's a drop of almost sixty percent relative to its
Speaker 6: peak in twenty twenty two, and in response, most central
Speaker 6: banks are lowering their rates. Of the one hundred plus
Speaker 6: that we track, about two thirds had already done so
Speaker 6: by the end of last year, roughly double from the
Speaker 6: end of the previous year. One big uncertain factor is
Speaker 6: actually the duration and extent of the easing, because inflationory
Speaker 6: pressures continue to lurk, and particularly since the policy decisions
Speaker 6: of the major central banks such as the FED and
Speaker 6: the ECB kind of riverbrate across the world. This is
Speaker 6: a significant source of uncertainty as we enter this year. Nevertheless,
Speaker 6: the easing has already led to modest turnarounds in investment
Speaker 6: and in cross border financing in twenty twenty four, which
Speaker 6: is after a two year slump, and we have also
Speaker 6: seen a significant rebound in global trade. Will I'm sure
Speaker 6: talk about that in both gods and services. Now that's
Speaker 6: a global picture, but for developing countries that continue to
Speaker 6: be appreciable differences visa we developed once. For developing countries,
Speaker 6: our forecast is four point three percent in twenty twenty
Speaker 6: five and four point two percent in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 6: remaining well below the five point two percent average in
Speaker 6: the previous decade. Now, in comparative terms, this gap with
Speaker 6: respect to the pre pandemic trend is larger for developing
Speaker 6: countries than developed countries, in other words, slower to catch up.
Speaker 6: And while inflation is trending downwards in developing countries too,
Speaker 6: it remains noticeably higher. Is estimated to be about six
Speaker 6: percent in twenty four and projected at five point one
Speaker 6: one percent in twenty five. These inflation numbers are one
Speaker 6: and a half times those for developed countries, and they've
Speaker 6: been persisting. And that's a sign of how severe the
Speaker 6: cost of living crisis is for most of us outside
Speaker 6: of this room. And you know, we might say that
Speaker 6: there's subpower growth in both developed and developing countries. There's
Speaker 6: been monetary tightening, so isn't there some kind of parity. Well, actually,
Speaker 6: developing countries face far more severe constraints. If you in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty four, if you look at the amount of
Speaker 6: public money that was used to service debt to pay
Speaker 6: off interest. The media and developing country was eleven point
Speaker 6: one percent of its revenues went for this. That's more
Speaker 6: than four times the amount for the media and developed country.
Speaker 6: African country is actually allocated over a quarter of their
Speaker 6: revenue Z on their own average, which leaves very little
Speaker 6: for meaningful investment in the STGES. Even among developing countries
Speaker 6: as are used. She said, there are variations, with the
Speaker 6: more vulnerable, such as the least developed countries, tending to
Speaker 6: be systematically worse in relative terms. So what does this
Speaker 6: mean for the STGs? All of it is that the
Speaker 6: prognosis is challenging. Although we've had good news, modestly good
Speaker 6: news in terms of things like extreme poverty rates returning
Speaker 6: to pre pandemic averages, the way forward is not so straightforward.
Speaker 6: There have been cumulative setbacks over the past few years.
Speaker 6: Growth expectations as you're seeing have been modest, and there
Speaker 6: are significant downside risks from climate shocks or spillovers of
Speaker 6: geopolitical tensions. However, at the same time, the overall expectation
Speaker 6: that there will be stable growth in the midst of
Speaker 6: all this divergence means that there is really a scope
Speaker 6: for international cooperation that can combine with individual country efforts.
Speaker 6: The report has detailed recommendations. My colleague Amid will become
Speaker 6: several of them. I just want to highlight a little
Speaker 6: bit more. Apart from the resolving the public debt burdens issue,
Speaker 6: which has already come up and which we expect will
Speaker 6: be taken up in fifty and other important for he
Speaker 6: as well is about accelerating the pace of the just
Speaker 6: energy transition, so the transition itself benefits all and if
Speaker 6: we can ensure that developing countries with the minerals needed
Speaker 6: to drive the transition can turn these resources into STG gains,
Speaker 6: that is a significant win. The reason we're bringing this
Speaker 6: up is because many of the countries that are identified
Speaker 6: as having significant amounts of these minerals are also home
Speaker 6: to some of the largest populations living in poverty and inequality.
Speaker 6: So if you get this right, it could open the
Speaker 6: doors to transformative results. Experience with natural resource led development
Speaker 6: indicates that such outcomes can't be guaranteed, they can often
Speaker 6: turn around. There is a scope for enabling them through
Speaker 6: multi stakeholder efforts. For more details and for a much
Speaker 6: more in depth look, handing over to now thank you.
Speaker 5: Thank you, Chateageau. Good afternoon, colleagues.
Speaker 7: Let me begin by saying that the Wall economy is
Speaker 7: on a stable and steady growth trajectory. Having said that,
Speaker 7: you know, we need to qualify. Obviously there are some challenges.
Speaker 7: The economy is not in the best state of the world.
Speaker 7: It's not in the worst state either. It's the growth
Speaker 7: we have projected for this year two point eight percent
Speaker 7: and slight improvement in next year in twenty twenty sixty
Speaker 7: two point nine percent.
Speaker 5: That's for global growth.
Speaker 7: Three points to underscore here, First, that Wall economy avoided
Speaker 7: a much anticipated, much feared as sort of a hard
Speaker 7: lending that we was expected in twenty twenty three, and
Speaker 7: that expectation persisted in twenty twenty for as well. That
Speaker 7: there can be some kind of a contraction that has
Speaker 7: was avoided.
Speaker 5: Moving the slides.
Speaker 7: And the second point is that post pandemic growth has
Speaker 7: already been said, that it remains below the pre pandemic
Speaker 7: average of three point two percent that we had between
Speaker 7: twenty ten and twenty nineteen, and that growth gap is
Speaker 7: quite significant and it is a reason for us to
Speaker 7: look at how policies can be calibrated to boost growth
Speaker 7: to pre pandemic levels. And the third issue is that,
Speaker 7: of course there are significant some headwinds that we cannot ignore.
Speaker 7: One of the head winds is that uncertainties and trade
Speaker 7: tensions that we see already there.
Speaker 5: We see.
Speaker 7: Shrinking fiscal space in many countries, especially in developing countries,
Speaker 7: and on top of that, we see a growing climate
Speaker 7: crisis climate risks in many parts of the world.
Speaker 5: And on the positive side.
Speaker 7: Of course, with inflation falling, we see some monetary using
Speaker 7: already began and it will continue, probably in twenty twenty
Speaker 7: five to a larger extent, and that would provide some respite,
Speaker 7: some support.
Speaker 5: For stimulating growth going forward.
Speaker 7: Now let's look at the growth performance across regions, and
Speaker 7: when you talk about economic growth, we think about what
Speaker 7: does it mean for economic development. Growth and development are
Speaker 7: not necessarily one on one. When you talk about economic
Speaker 7: impact of development impact of growth. We need to look
Speaker 7: at park capital growth performance, and there we see quite
Speaker 7: a bit of variation across regions, and we see especially
Speaker 7: except for South Asia region, in twenty twenty four, all
Speaker 7: the regions had park capital growth rate below their pre
Speaker 7: pandemic averages. Most striking was the growth rate that we
Speaker 7: saw in Africa in twenty twenty four, which is almost
Speaker 7: an half a percentage point GDP growth rate, not enough
Speaker 7: to reduce poverty, not enough to reduce all these systemic
Speaker 7: issues that challenges that we see in those countries, and
Speaker 7: also regionally, if you look at Western Asia and other
Speaker 7: other regions, Latin American Caribbean also growth performance was subpar
Speaker 7: relative to pre pandemic levels. We see some improvements in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty five on part capita terms, but not significant.
Speaker 7: In some regions, we'll see some improvement but not broad
Speaker 7: based in terms of the most vulnerable group of countries.
Speaker 7: And we see that as seeds small island developing states,
Speaker 7: they did relatively well in twenty twenty four and would
Speaker 7: probably do well in twenty twenty five as well because
Speaker 7: of the recovery quick recovery in tourism many of these countries. Inflation,
Speaker 7: I would not go into the details. There's again there's
Speaker 7: quite a bit of variation betn't developed and doubling countries
Speaker 7: that came up. So one of the things that we
Speaker 7: have to look at is that this trend is inflation
Speaker 7: is are trended downward across the board, with some exceptions,
Speaker 7: especially if you look at the regional variations in inflation.
Speaker 7: Still Africa's inflation is double digit on average, which is
Speaker 7: still quite worrisome. And also we also see high inflation
Speaker 7: in Western Asia as well, sixteen percent average inflation. And
Speaker 7: with that inflation in many parts of the world, especially
Speaker 7: where there's a significant amount of poverty, we are witnessing
Speaker 7: simultaneous food in security problem and the cost of living crisis.
Speaker 5: And that is.
Speaker 7: The challenge with low growth and communition of low growth
Speaker 7: and high inflation where employee job creation is not sufficient
Speaker 7: to live the income level of those people where the
Speaker 7: inflation is actually cutting back their purchasing power, double wormy
Speaker 7: on both sides. So poverty reduction in many countries, although
Speaker 7: we have reached the pre pandemic level of poverty, but
Speaker 7: it's slow. Poverty reduction. Piece of poverty reduction is slow
Speaker 7: in most parts of the world. Global trade that's where
Speaker 7: the good news is. It rebounded sharply in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 7: reach three point four percent growth rate compared to only
Speaker 7: point nine percent the previous year in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 7: Massive rebound and that is quite a was it good
Speaker 7: news for the global economy, and we expect trade to
Speaker 7: remain strong in twenty twenty five with some variation. Of course,
Speaker 7: investment also picked up in twenty twenty four, and we
Speaker 7: continue to expect some investment momentum, especially given the low
Speaker 7: interest rates probably would support investment in many parts of
Speaker 7: the world. Level markets again mixed picture between developed and
Speaker 7: developing countries. Developed countries recovered very quickly from the pandemic
Speaker 7: related shocks to the employment. Actually, total employment in developed
Speaker 7: countries was three point six percent higher than they had
Speaker 7: it was the during the pre pandemic period, and the
Speaker 7: same with liver forced participation rate. Female participation rate actually
Speaker 7: increased significantly, but the story is very different for the
Speaker 7: developing countries.
Speaker 5: Lebel market is still quick.
Speaker 7: In some countries, especially in sub Southern Africa South Africa,
Speaker 7: unemployment rate is over thirty percent. Female participation rate actually
Speaker 7: when in the opposite direction in many developing countries from
Speaker 7: fifty four percent in twenty nineteen to fifty one percent
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty four. And another important indicator our point
Speaker 7: of concern for US is that youth unemployment in many
Speaker 7: parts of the world remains very high elevated neat one
Speaker 7: indicator that we observe and not in employment, education and training.
Speaker 7: That is also significantly high in some cases over twenty
Speaker 7: five percent in South Asia, which is also a concerning trend.
Speaker 7: One of the consequences of slow growth is that it
Speaker 7: really strains the fiscal space because slow growth means slow
Speaker 7: government revenue growth and at the same time, debt servicing
Speaker 7: remains constant or sometimes can increase depending on the cycle
Speaker 7: of the debt. So we see a significant squeezing of
Speaker 7: the fiscal space in many parts of the world, and
Speaker 7: that is a worri Is symbol. Is that is affecting
Speaker 7: our crowding out other investments and other public sector spending,
Speaker 7: especially for SDGs, and we see there will also a
Speaker 7: pressure given that high levels of debt, there were pressure
Speaker 7: on many countries to cut back spending and go for
Speaker 7: fiscal consolidation, and we have warned consistently against fiscal consolidation,
Speaker 7: especially if it's prematureuse that can slow down growth further.
Speaker 7: With further dampening revenue growth and further spending cuts, it
Speaker 7: can be a downward vicious downward spiral. So in that respect,
Speaker 7: international cooperation be very critical, especially supporting trade growth and
Speaker 7: also reducing the dead bodies of many developing countries. So
Speaker 7: the silver lining for our report, we focus on the
Speaker 7: critical mineral sector. This is a sector where it has
Speaker 7: it presents huge potential for countries that are endowed with
Speaker 7: those resources and nickels and lithium, cobalt, all the minerals
Speaker 7: that are needed for energy transitions. But again, as Shantanu
Speaker 7: mentioned earlier, that just having resources doesn't mean any doesn't
Speaker 7: give the guarantee that it will lead to economic development.
Speaker 7: It may give some growth short term growth spurts, but
Speaker 7: may not lead to sustainable development. They're good governance and
Speaker 7: other factors that play very important role. And we see
Speaker 7: that there are many countries that are endowed with those resources.
Speaker 7: There's a lot of interest in those resources from foreign
Speaker 7: investors mining companies, but they have to put in place
Speaker 7: the right kind of framework to make sure that those
Speaker 7: resources benefit the local communities, especially the constants of stakeholders.
Speaker 7: Will be very important to ensure these minerals are benefits
Speaker 7: are equably distributed. Labor standards would play very important role here. Again,
Speaker 7: two sets of.
Speaker 5: Policies would be important.
Speaker 7: One is that to keep in mind that there's no
Speaker 7: one size fits all for maximizing the benefits of the
Speaker 7: critical minerals. Every country has a specific context. There has
Speaker 7: to be a country specific policy, tailored policies taking into
Speaker 7: account geopolitical considerations and national capacity, institutional capacity.
Speaker 5: Level of infrastructure. All of this would play in.
Speaker 7: But more importantly, there's a significant role for industrial and
Speaker 7: innovation policies in those countries to make sure that the
Speaker 7: countries are not.
Speaker 5: Just exporters of raw materials.
Speaker 7: But rather there's a lot of value addition at the
Speaker 7: midstream and downstream levels. In fact, you know, so that
Speaker 7: if we are talking about ivy materials, so some of
Speaker 7: the materials should be processed in those countries so that
Speaker 7: they can get higher valudated from these resources.
Speaker 5: So this is my almost last slide.
Speaker 7: There's a huge investment gaps, huge opportunities to take increase
Speaker 7: investment in those resources. Our projected investment needs by twenty
Speaker 7: twenty three twenty thirty would be close to one hundred
Speaker 7: and fifty billion a year, but now it's even less
Speaker 7: than forty billions. So there's to be significant increase in
Speaker 7: investment in those critical minerals, but that would require again
Speaker 7: better international framework, investment framework. Local conditions has to improve condition.
Speaker 7: Policies and institutional support would be needed, but at the
Speaker 7: same time a lot of public private partnerships would be
Speaker 7: needed to make sure that needed investments are there so
Speaker 7: that we can accelerate energy transition and support the SGG
Speaker 7: objectives of those many of those countries, So.
Speaker 5: The mix of policies would play role.
Speaker 7: As always, industrial policy would play very important role in
Speaker 7: those countries. But I think the last circle is international cooperation.
Speaker 5: There.
Speaker 7: I think what we are emphasizing in our report that
Speaker 7: there is it's an imperative to strengthen international cooperation not
Speaker 7: just for critical minerals, but also to support the broader
Speaker 7: trade framework, broader investment flows, the capital flows, especially in
Speaker 7: the context of all the international agreements and international conferences
Speaker 7: that we have in the Pipeline Fantasy for Development Conference
Speaker 7: FFT four happening this year at TEXT, corporation can play
Speaker 7: very important role to prevent the illicit flow of financial
Speaker 7: flows and to make sure more resources stay in those countries.
Speaker 5: And support the local development goals. I'll stop here. Thank
Speaker 5: you very much.
Speaker 3: The floor is now open for questions.
Speaker 8: Yes, please, thank you Martina. It's first I want to
Speaker 8: thank you on behalf of the UN Correspondence Association on
Speaker 8: behalf of Uncle and Valeria Rebecca, who asked me to
Speaker 8: stand in to thank you. I'm Pamela Faulk for CBS who.
Speaker 8: I'm Pamela foul for US News and World Report. Time
Speaker 8: time frozen there for a minute. My question is about
Speaker 8: the report. You say that monetary policy has eased, inflation
Speaker 8: has eased, some labor market is better, and yet the
Speaker 8: percentage of growth is less than the pre pandemic period.
Speaker 8: You also said that it's I think it's three point
Speaker 8: five percent growth of trade global trade in twenty twenty five. Now,
Speaker 8: we've all heard in the last few weeks a lot
Speaker 8: of tariff threats, not just by the United States but
Speaker 8: all around the world. In that context, do you see
Speaker 8: that projection of global trade going down and the economy
Speaker 8: you don't have it in your international cooperation? And what
Speaker 8: did you base the three point five percent growth? Was
Speaker 8: it without additional wars or tariffs that would impede that?
Speaker 7: Thank you, great question, But again we don't we can
Speaker 7: model announcements or some in carri of threats from whatever
Speaker 7: country that doesn't get into our our consideration. We actually
Speaker 7: look at actual policies which are when there's a sort
Speaker 7: of a clear indication that this policy will.
Speaker 5: Be implemented, then we can change.
Speaker 7: And calibrate our models and to predict what possible outcome.
Speaker 7: So at this stage, our numbers are based on what
Speaker 7: we saw as of early December of last year, and
Speaker 7: we took into account the policies in place without any
Speaker 7: massive disruption. So again, we cannot every day announcements, we
Speaker 7: cannot take into account and we can't constantly change our.
Speaker 8: Totally understood, but you two have been in this and
Speaker 8: your colleague the HJA have been in this for a
Speaker 8: long time. Do you think these kind of tariff threats
Speaker 8: around the world can have a negative effect. I mean,
Speaker 8: I'm asking you to go outside the box or outside
Speaker 8: your mandate, but I'd appreciate.
Speaker 6: Okay, let me compliment what Hamid said and how it
Speaker 6: feel free to jump in. First, a small correction that
Speaker 6: three point four percent growth is the actual growth we
Speaker 6: saw in twenty twenty four, so we have not projected
Speaker 6: it forward to twenty twenty five. Three point four percent
Speaker 6: trade growth is the actual growth in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6: Yes for next year, yes, yes, And as Hamid said
Speaker 6: that a lot of things go into these predictions, but
Speaker 6: we rely on actual policies, and a big driver of
Speaker 6: that slight reduction coming up is things like slightly slower
Speaker 6: growth in the US itself, not because of a sudden
Speaker 6: change in government policies, but because the average growth in
Speaker 6: the US has been above mean for a while, and
Speaker 6: when that happens, it comes back to me in after
Speaker 6: a while. So the US is a big driver of
Speaker 6: world trade, both in terms of imports and exports, so
Speaker 6: slow in growth in the US would mean that slight
Speaker 6: reduction in the volume of trade other factors. Now your
Speaker 6: question about tariffs and tariff announcements, I think I think
Speaker 6: one shouldn't look at tariff's in isolation, tariff's by one
Speaker 6: country in isolation, even announcements by one country in isolation.
Speaker 6: I think previous experience shows that people do respond to
Speaker 6: tariff's in different ways, and so one has to look
Speaker 6: at the what comes out of the wash, as it were,
Speaker 6: when these moves and countermoves have actually played out. So
Speaker 6: in our modeling, we prefer to wait for some of
Speaker 6: these strategic moves by countries to actually play out, and
Speaker 6: that gives us a more stable basis for projecting.
Speaker 9: Forward news of the day, but we are going to
Speaker 9: proceed with a previously planned announcement first, and I am
Speaker 9: pleased to be joined by mister Greg Ebele, chief executive
Speaker 9: Officer of Enbridge, today to talk about increasing pipeline capacity
Speaker 9: and oil and gas production in Alberta so that we
Speaker 9: can play an even greater role in North American energy security.
Speaker 9: The Government of Alberta's ambition is to double oil and
Speaker 9: gas production, and today we've signed a letter of intent
Speaker 9: with Enbridge to accelerate these growth opportunities and ensure more
Speaker 9: capacity for oil and gas is available across more than
Speaker 9: twenty nine thousand kilometers of pipelines in the Enbridge network.
Speaker 9: This added capacity objective is critical to Alberta and our
Speaker 9: most important trading partner, the United States. Alberta's oil directly
Speaker 9: supports more than fifty US based refineries with direct investment
Speaker 9: in more than twenty US states, and is essential to affordability, growth,
Speaker 9: economic prosperity, and energy security in the United States and globally.
Speaker 9: Alberta oil and natural gas is also a reliable and
Speaker 9: important feedstock for essential products produced in the United States,
Speaker 9: especially in the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan
Speaker 9: and Wisconsin. Our first step in this agreement will be
Speaker 9: creating a formal working group made up of the Government
Speaker 9: of Alberta, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, and Enbridge senior representatives.
Speaker 9: This working group will assess opportunities for shared investment and
Speaker 9: expanding pipeline capacity, transportation, storage, and new pipeline opportunities in
Speaker 9: the future across Enbridge's entire network. There will also be
Speaker 9: a focus on streamlining regulations and permitting approvals and red
Speaker 9: tape reduction that will include a provincial as well as
Speaker 9: a national cross border perspective. This is one example of
Speaker 9: the items the working group will be discussing. Others include
Speaker 9: direct engagement with the Canadian Energy Regulator to expedite capacity
Speaker 9: expansion and permitting and approvals for oil and gas in
Speaker 9: Alberta and across borders that today are too slow and
Speaker 9: too cumbersome and in no way reflect the need to
Speaker 9: compete with impending regulatory reform coming in the United States.
Speaker 9: Engagement with producers to ensure future capital growth plans align
Speaker 9: with the intended outcomes from the working group, to deliver
Speaker 9: more oil and gas and keep differentials competitive. We will
Speaker 9: identify actions our government will need to take to streamline
Speaker 9: approvals and expedite policy in support of accessing barrels through
Speaker 9: our existing vichumen royalty in kind program and developing a
Speaker 9: program for gas royalty in kind sooner an earliest and
Speaker 9: also early assessment of additional indigenous opportunities and how the
Speaker 9: Alberta Indigenous Opportunity Corporation could participate in the opportunities advanced
Speaker 9: by the working Group. Increasingly, Alberta's ability to move more
Speaker 9: oil and gas will encourage producers to increase production and
Speaker 9: start new capital projects in Alberta in support of our
Speaker 9: economic prosperity. Recent discussions with oil Sense producers identified that
Speaker 9: over the last year, organic growth in the oil Sense
Speaker 9: was over seven percent. These added pipeline These added pipeline
Speaker 9: capacity plans will require more production and more capital investment
Speaker 9: in the future. Doubling oil and gas production in Alberta
Speaker 9: has been a goal of my administration since about day one.
Speaker 9: Increased production means increased investment, increased jobs and increased royalties
Speaker 9: for Alberton's. Today's announcement is about our work with Enbridge
Speaker 9: and we thank them for their leadership and action in
Speaker 9: support of doubling Alberta's oil production going forward. The opportunities
Speaker 9: that they have identified are significant, and now the work
Speaker 9: begins to advance these in support of our shared ambition.
Speaker 9: We are also in discussions with the other pipeline companies
Speaker 9: and look forward to advancing ideas and opportunities that can
Speaker 9: continue to provide Alberton's who own this resource, with investment
Speaker 9: returns and proactive market access opportunities for Alberta's oil and
Speaker 9: gas assets in the intermediate In the immediate future, Alberta
Speaker 9: cannot afford to be passive when it comes to providing
Speaker 9: our energy to North America and globally to the billions
Speaker 9: of people who today live in energy poverty. We have
Speaker 9: a responsibility to ensure our oil and natural gas has
Speaker 9: market access. Actions like this announcement with industry today ensure
Speaker 9: that we will be active in this responsibility and active
Speaker 9: in this pursuit with our largest trading partner, the United States,
Speaker 9: who shares these same values. Alberta's exports of four point
Speaker 9: three million barrels per day of heavy oil, which is
Speaker 9: almost equivalent to the amount of light oil that the
Speaker 9: US exports globally today, demonstrates the critical alignment of our
Speaker 9: North American oil market and highlights our long partnership and
Speaker 9: support of addressing energy security globally. Alberta accounts for fifty
Speaker 9: six percent of total US oil imports, enabling them to
Speaker 9: export light oil to European, Scandinavian and Asian countries from
Speaker 9: the United States. The US needs to import heavy oil
Speaker 9: from somewhere, and we believe we are a far better
Speaker 9: partner than Iraq, Iran or Venezuela. This announcement today with
Speaker 9: n Bridge is about strengthening the bonds with the United
Speaker 9: States and about increasing production of Alberta's reliable oil and gas.
Speaker 9: It's also about supporting advancing egress sooner and supporting investment,
Speaker 9: job creation, and other objectives in Alberta and the United States.
Speaker 9: The United States Ambition for Global Energy Security and dominance,
Speaker 9: the US ambition to support affordability and lower energy costs
Speaker 9: domestically in the United States, and the clear call to
Speaker 9: action across North America to electrify in support of AI
Speaker 9: demand includes Alberta oil and gas. To support these priorities,
Speaker 9: Alberta will not sit back. We intend to demonstrate our
Speaker 9: support for the United States via our integrated pipeline network
Speaker 9: today and tomorrow, and I do want to thank Greg
Speaker 9: and the entire leadership team at Enbridge in taking this
Speaker 9: important first step. The opportunities are present and it's time
Speaker 9: for our teams to get to work in bringing these
Speaker 9: to fruition and support of Alberta energy security and enhanced
Speaker 9: capacity within Canada and the United States. Thank you, and
Speaker 9: i'd now like to invite Greg Ebel to speak well.
Speaker 10: Good afternoon, Thank you, Premier. A pleasure to be here.
Speaker 10: As you know, while Enbridge assets today extend right across
Speaker 10: North America eight provinces, forty three states, one territory, three
Speaker 10: European countries, Alberta is our starting place for it all,
Speaker 10: and so we're proud to be headquartered here and we're
Speaker 10: delighted to partner with the Government of Alberta today to
Speaker 10: develop a win win win solution for our customers, Alberta's
Speaker 10: and Enbridge itself. Let me first acknowledge the leadership by you, Premier.
Speaker 10: I appreciate that very much in keeping Alberta growing and
Speaker 10: a key part of North America's energy security and prosperity.
Speaker 10: As most of you know, Enbridge plays a rather unique
Speaker 10: and key role in the continental energy value chain. We
Speaker 10: were the first to connect Western Canadian oil supplies with
Speaker 10: key US markets more than seventy five years ago, and
Speaker 10: we've grown with North American energy needs, working collaboraty with
Speaker 10: our customers, with governments, with communities and indigenous groups to
Speaker 10: ensure safe, reliable, and first class energy solutions. We have
Speaker 10: been the partner of choice for a very long time,
Speaker 10: and we remain committed to being that partner of Joyce
Speaker 10: for all our stakeholders. With rapidly growing North American energy
Speaker 10: demand driven by data centers and AI the resurgence of
Speaker 10: domestic manufacturing, we need all of the above approach that
Speaker 10: includes oil and gas. As we like to say, you
Speaker 10: can't run a full time economy on part time energy,
Speaker 10: and as the Premier has underscored, Alberta's energy is key
Speaker 10: to North America's energy security. The world needs more Alberta
Speaker 10: oil and gas. Over the last decade, Enbridge has invested
Speaker 10: over twenty billion dollars to support resource development in Western Canada,
Speaker 10: unlocking new markets right across North America, ensuring that Alberta
Speaker 10: and can receive top value for commodities. That's included a
Speaker 10: growth growing amount of oil transported on our mainline system
Speaker 10: from one point five million barrels a day to where
Speaker 10: we are today three point two million barrels today, achieved
Speaker 10: through low cost expansions and optimizations. As Enbridge has continuously demonstrated,
Speaker 10: by our optimizing of our pipelines and leveraging our existing footprint,
Speaker 10: we can deliver incremental capacity in a phased and cost
Speaker 10: effective manner, meeting today's needs while continuously looking to meet
Speaker 10: tomorrow's needs. Importantly, with the benefits of Enbridge's pipes that
Speaker 10: are already in the ground and our existing right away,
Speaker 10: our approach is less impactful on stakeholders, communities, and the
Speaker 10: environment overall relative to large greenfield projects. Enbridge really has
Speaker 10: a multifaceted supersystem that starts here in Alberta, stretches and
Speaker 10: serves demand markets and supply basins right across North of
Speaker 10: Mala America, making the entire continent stronger, more productive, and
Speaker 10: more prosperous. We're very please be working with the Premier
Speaker 10: and the province to keep that track record of success
Speaker 10: rolling along. And because we successfully operate these pipeline supersystems
Speaker 10: and Bridge is prepared and exceptionally well positioned to work
Speaker 10: with producers and governments to increase capacity as production ramps
Speaker 10: up now and right through the decade, delivering economic, scalable,
Speaker 10: executable solutions that support energy security and affordability. So we're
Speaker 10: excited to work with the Government of Alberta and our
Speaker 10: US partners and governments on how we can best leverage
Speaker 10: our existing systems to grow capacity for Canadian and US
Speaker 10: oil production, supporting growth from the Western Canadian sedimentary Basin
Speaker 10: Bachin and Rocky's Basins for domestic use, and while also
Speaker 10: supporting exports to our international allies. As the operator of
Speaker 10: the largest crude export terminal in North Amyera, improving global
Speaker 10: access for North American crude oil is a key focus
Speaker 10: of ours, of our customers and governments that we participate
Speaker 10: with all of this is a smart thing to do,
Speaker 10: and again we appreciate the Premier's leadership and support of
Speaker 10: private sector solutions via government partnerships. Unlocking capacity for both
Speaker 10: Canada and the United States reinforces the value and the
Speaker 10: strength of North America's integrated energy system systems that help
Speaker 10: ensure energy reliability and affordability for consumers, but also sustains
Speaker 10: competitiveness and economic prosperity for citizens on both sides of
Speaker 10: the border. Mbridge is always developing opportunities with our customers
Speaker 10: and stakeholders to add valuable egress out of the Western
Speaker 10: Canadian sedimentary basin, and we have been recently talking about
Speaker 10: such opportunities on the mainline and our market access pipelines.
Speaker 10: So we look forward to working with the Berta government
Speaker 10: and are customers in developing further opportunities that utilize our
Speaker 10: existing footprint. Over the coming months and through twenty twenty five,
Speaker 10: we will be sharing more details with you and the
Speaker 10: investment community and customers as these opportunities firm up in
Speaker 10: the marketplace, and as we prudently develop our broader projects.
Speaker 10: We'll obviously be engaging with all the various stakeholders again, customers, communities,
Speaker 10: governments and indigenous groups. So maybe i'll just wrap up
Speaker 10: their premieer and just by reiterating that we are thrilled
Speaker 10: to be the Alberta government's partner of choice and our
Speaker 10: customers and successfully deliver on these opportunities. Thank you again, Premier,
Speaker 10: and it's clear why you continue to be the first
Speaker 10: choice to lead Alberta.
Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you well.
Speaker 9: Now move some questions from the media. It'll be one question,
Speaker 9: one follow up. Please do your name and alive for
Speaker 9: their record. We'll start hearing the room, they'll go to
Speaker 9: the phone. Am I see you lined up?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 8: Gooday.
Speaker 11: Im mcgrinny from the Globe and Mel Greg this is
Speaker 11: for you and also I think for the Premier. When
Speaker 11: you're looking here, what exactly do you envisage this looking
Speaker 11: like we talk twinning mainline? Are we talking sounds more
Speaker 11: like you're talking twinning rather than building a whole new projects?
Speaker 11: And then are you going to commit to not putting
Speaker 11: tax pedal as to it's something like that, considering what
Speaker 11: happened with Keystone.
Speaker 9: Well, let me tell you about our approach. Part of
Speaker 9: the reason why we're looking at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing
Speaker 9: Agency is that allows us to secure a certain number
Speaker 9: of barrels on a new pipeline to be able to
Speaker 9: create the market security that is going to go ahead.
Speaker 9: And then there's a couple of things that we could do.
Speaker 9: We could take our oil and kind and then be
Speaker 9: able to fill that that pipeline with that, or we
Speaker 9: could act as an aggregator for some of the smaller
Speaker 9: producers because we have heard that that's one of the
Speaker 9: complications that they have. So that's the role that we
Speaker 9: would play is being essentially the first on the line
Speaker 9: to send the signal to the rest of the marketplace
Speaker 9: that this is a pipeline that's going to go ahead
Speaker 9: and we are intend to be one of the producers
Speaker 9: on it. That I think is a way for us
Speaker 9: to give the security without putting up potentially cash dollars
Speaker 9: of taxpayers. That's what we're hoping to see. We'll see
Speaker 9: how the market responds to this, but we have also
Speaker 9: sent a signal to other pipeline companies that we're prepared
Speaker 9: to do the same thing. So we hope that this
Speaker 9: is the first of several types of announcements like this.
Speaker 9: And I'll turn it over to Greg to tell you
Speaker 9: a little bit more about what he would have in
Speaker 9: mind about how to increase that pipeline access on the
Speaker 9: end bridge lines.
Speaker 5: You know, I think, thank you Premier.
Speaker 10: I think it goes back to the fact that we've
Speaker 10: been able very efficiently to increase capacity over the last
Speaker 10: twenty years or so. It's that same kind of thing.
Speaker 10: We have several hundred thousand barrels of capacity to editions.
Speaker 10: We think we can take on that are not large
Speaker 10: builds that can ramp up as growth ramps up from
Speaker 10: our producers here. It's a little early to kind of
Speaker 10: give you all those details, but again over the next
Speaker 10: couple of months and throughout the year, I think you'll
Speaker 10: be impressed, as I always aim, by the producers here
Speaker 10: in the province and their ability to grow. And as
Speaker 10: the Premier says, yeah, we're not we're not looking for
Speaker 10: dollars and cents from the government obviously. It's about them
Speaker 10: utilizing the pipeline systems to get the best value for
Speaker 10: Elberton's for the commodities that are produc here.
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