WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:03.480 So it's it's a freezing cold January day in two 2 00:00:03.480 --> 00:00:05.879 thousand and eight, very cold, and we are on the 3 00:00:05.919 --> 00:00:09.800 flight deck of British Airways flight thirty eight. They're descending 4 00:00:09.839 --> 00:00:13.160 over all those you know, tightly packed houses in London, 5 00:00:13.560 --> 00:00:15.039 just coming into Heathrow. 6 00:00:14.679 --> 00:00:16.559 Which is incredibly dense airspace. 7 00:00:16.679 --> 00:00:19.800 Yeah, exactly, and in just seconds, the state of the 8 00:00:19.879 --> 00:00:22.120 art Boeing seven seven seven, which by the way is 9 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:25.800 a plane with a flawless two million flight safety record, 10 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:28.879 is going to inexplicably just fall right out of the sky. 11 00:00:29.079 --> 00:00:30.480 It's terrifying, it really is. 12 00:00:31.280 --> 00:00:33.759 So today for our deep dive we are exploring this 13 00:00:33.960 --> 00:00:38.399 crazy true story. It's a catastrophe that totally baffled the 14 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.920 greatest aviation mines on the planet. I mean we're talking 15 00:00:41.920 --> 00:00:45.119 about an exhaustive hunt for a culprit that vanished without 16 00:00:45.119 --> 00:00:46.000 a single trace. 17 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:48.719 Yeah, And to really understand the sheer scale of the 18 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:51.280 shock that ripped through the aviation world that day, you 19 00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:53.520 really have to put yourself in that cockpit. Oh, absolutely, 20 00:00:53.560 --> 00:00:55.439 because the Boeing seven to seven seven it was and 21 00:00:55.520 --> 00:00:59.560 still is really the undisputed gold standard of commercial aviation, right. 22 00:00:59.600 --> 00:01:01.799 I mean, it's like the Titanic of the skies, but 23 00:01:02.039 --> 00:01:05.239 you know one that actually worked perfectly ten years, millions 24 00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:07.599 of flights, zero major accidents. 25 00:01:07.159 --> 00:01:12.519 Exactly, completely trusted by pilots and passengers. So picture the scene. 26 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:15.719 It's the very end of a completely routine ten and 27 00:01:15.719 --> 00:01:17.879 a half hour flight from Beijing to London. 28 00:01:18.040 --> 00:01:19.480 It's a normal day, right. 29 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:21.560 There are one hundred and fifty two people on board. 30 00:01:21.879 --> 00:01:25.280 You've got a passenger, Nick Harris, for example, just looking 31 00:01:25.319 --> 00:01:27.359 out the window, listening to the hum of the engines, 32 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:29.480 totally looking forward to getting home. 33 00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:32.480 I mean they're descending over Helmslow, which is basically just 34 00:01:32.799 --> 00:01:34.200 rows and rows of rooftops. 35 00:01:34.319 --> 00:01:37.640 Yeah, and let's walk through the exact chronology of this descent, 36 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:41.560 because the margins here between a routine landing and absolute 37 00:01:41.640 --> 00:01:43.439 disaster are razor thin. 38 00:01:43.599 --> 00:01:46.319 So at twelve hundred feet everything is completely normal. 39 00:01:46.040 --> 00:01:49.760 Totally normal. The autopilot is smoothly handling some you know, 40 00:01:49.840 --> 00:01:53.239 twenty to thirty nine wind gusts. It's a bit turbulent, 41 00:01:53.319 --> 00:01:56.400 the airframe is shuttering a little bit, but nothing unusual 42 00:01:56.439 --> 00:01:59.040 for London in the winter, right. So First Officer John 43 00:01:59.120 --> 00:02:02.040 Coward takes manual control for the landing. Exactly is planned 44 00:02:02.519 --> 00:02:04.519 hands on the yoke, feed on the rudder. 45 00:02:04.280 --> 00:02:05.439 Pedals, ready to bring it in. 46 00:02:05.560 --> 00:02:09.319 Yeah, but then at five hundred feet everything just falls apart. 47 00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:12.719 Five hundred feet is what mere seconds from the runway. 48 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:17.199 Mere seconds and first docs, a coward utters a phrase 49 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:19.800 that no pilot ever wants to say. He looks over 50 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:22.919 and says, Pete, I can't get power on the engines. 51 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:25.840 Wait, like the auto throttle is demanding full thrust, right 52 00:02:25.960 --> 00:02:27.439 because they're getting buffeted. 53 00:02:27.080 --> 00:02:29.800 By the wind exactly. The computer is screaming for speed 54 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:32.879 to maintain the glide path. But those massive rolls Royce 55 00:02:32.919 --> 00:02:34.919 engines are just completely dead. 56 00:02:35.199 --> 00:02:37.159 So they're literally just dead weight at this point. 57 00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:41.159 Yeah, and they are falling toward the hat and cross area, 58 00:02:41.479 --> 00:02:45.120 directly over a petrol station and a bunch of residential buildings. 59 00:02:45.199 --> 00:02:48.680 That is a nightmare fuel. And you've got Captain peterbrook 60 00:02:48.719 --> 00:02:51.080 Hill sitting there feeling the massive weight of those four 61 00:02:51.120 --> 00:02:52.199 strikes on his uniform. 62 00:02:52.280 --> 00:02:54.680 Right, Yeah, I mean he realizes in that split second 63 00:02:55.039 --> 00:02:57.120 that the lives of one hundred and fifty two people 64 00:02:57.479 --> 00:02:59.639 rest entirely on what he does in the next. 65 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:02.159 Thirty seve sec thirty seconds. Wow. 66 00:03:02.360 --> 00:03:05.240 And the psychology of what happens next in that cockpit 67 00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:08.000 is well, it's a masterclass in crisis. 68 00:03:07.560 --> 00:03:09.520 Management because of the overload, right. 69 00:03:09.360 --> 00:03:13.120 Right, There's a concept called task saturation. When a catastrophic 70 00:03:13.159 --> 00:03:17.439 failure happens, the sheer volume of sensory input you know, 71 00:03:17.639 --> 00:03:22.159 blaring alarms, flashing lights, the physical stomach dropping sensation of 72 00:03:22.199 --> 00:03:26.560 the plane falling, it can completely overwhelm your brained processing capacity. 73 00:03:26.639 --> 00:03:29.400 You just get tunnel vision. Your brain screams at you 74 00:03:29.439 --> 00:03:30.520 to panic exactly. 75 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:34.879 The amygdala takes over. But Burke Hill manages this saturation brilliantly. 76 00:03:35.199 --> 00:03:38.159 He makes three split second life saving choices. 77 00:03:38.199 --> 00:03:39.159 Okay, what's the first one. 78 00:03:39.319 --> 00:03:42.319 First he leaves the landing gear down. He knows they 79 00:03:42.319 --> 00:03:45.240 are going to make the runway, but he needs that massive, 80 00:03:45.599 --> 00:03:48.520 heavy gear to act as a crumple zone to absorb 81 00:03:48.599 --> 00:03:49.520 the impact. 82 00:03:49.280 --> 00:03:52.360 Like a calculated sacrifice for the cabin above exactly. 83 00:03:52.520 --> 00:03:55.439 And he compounds that with a second aerodynamic choice. He 84 00:03:55.479 --> 00:03:58.120 actually raises the flaps from thirty degrees to twenty five. 85 00:03:57.960 --> 00:04:01.080 Degrees, which I mean that feels totally counter cupitive, right do. 86 00:04:01.280 --> 00:04:04.240 But the physics are wild because when you lose engines, 87 00:04:04.319 --> 00:04:07.800 gravity takes over and your flaps basically act like giant. 88 00:04:07.560 --> 00:04:09.400 Parachute, right, they create drag. 89 00:04:09.639 --> 00:04:12.039 So by pulling them up just that little bit, burke 90 00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:14.719 Hill traded a little bit of upward lift to shed 91 00:04:14.759 --> 00:04:17.600 a massive amount of drag. Like he essentially turned a 92 00:04:17.639 --> 00:04:19.399 falling rock back into a glider. 93 00:04:19.519 --> 00:04:22.439 Yeah, he bought them just enough forward distance to stretch 94 00:04:22.480 --> 00:04:25.240 that glide path and clear the antenna rays at the 95 00:04:25.319 --> 00:04:28.720 edge of the airport. Wow. But his third decision, this 96 00:04:28.879 --> 00:04:31.759 is the one that truly saved everyone on board. He 97 00:04:31.839 --> 00:04:35.959 explicitly decides not to take the controls from First Officer Coward. 98 00:04:36.079 --> 00:04:37.959 Okay, See, I have to push back on that because 99 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:39.800 as a driver, you know, if I'm in a car 100 00:04:39.879 --> 00:04:41.879 and it hits a patch of ice and starts skidding, 101 00:04:42.360 --> 00:04:44.480 my absolute first instinct is to grab the wheel. 102 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:45.800 I want control, naturally. 103 00:04:45.879 --> 00:04:49.839 Yeah, So burke Hill explicitly doing nothing. Why is that 104 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:51.439 actually the brilliant move here? 105 00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:54.480 It all comes down to crew resource management. Yeah, burke 106 00:04:54.519 --> 00:04:56.800 Hill glanced over and saw that Coward was flying the 107 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:00.920 plane perfectly. Yeah, he was maintaining the app salute optimal 108 00:05:00.959 --> 00:05:03.120 glide slope given they had zero thrust. 109 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:05.480 Okay, so if it ain't broke, don't fix it right. 110 00:05:05.519 --> 00:05:08.759 And if burk Kill had taken control the precious seconds 111 00:05:08.759 --> 00:05:11.199 lost in that transfer, you know, taking his hands off 112 00:05:11.199 --> 00:05:13.600 the instruments, getting a physical feel for the dead weight 113 00:05:13.639 --> 00:05:18.000 of this massive, unpowered aircraft, that delay would have doomed them, right. 114 00:05:17.839 --> 00:05:20.319 Because they only had thirty seconds total exactly. 115 00:05:20.759 --> 00:05:24.519 Trusting his first officer, overriding his own ego and just 116 00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:27.279 focusing on managing the failing systems instead of flying the 117 00:05:27.319 --> 00:05:29.920 plane is what kept them in the air just long enough. 118 00:05:29.959 --> 00:05:33.319 But the crash itself is still just brutal. They slam 119 00:05:33.360 --> 00:05:35.759 into the mud and grass. What a thousand feet short 120 00:05:35.759 --> 00:05:37.199 of runway twenty seven zlos one. 121 00:05:37.079 --> 00:05:40.600 Thousand feet short. The force is immense. The landing gears 122 00:05:40.680 --> 00:05:41.959 pushed right up through. 123 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:44.079 The wings and didn't one of the massive wheels get 124 00:05:44.160 --> 00:05:45.040 totally ripped off. 125 00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:47.839 Yeah, I just went tumbling across the grass. The engines 126 00:05:47.839 --> 00:05:49.959 were half buried in the dirt. But the thing is 127 00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:53.319 they missed the petrol station, they missed the A thirty motorway. 128 00:05:53.079 --> 00:05:57.319 And miraculously no fire, zero fatalities, just. 129 00:05:57.399 --> 00:05:59.680 Forty seven injuries among the one hundred and fifty two 130 00:05:59.680 --> 00:06:02.920 people on board. The soft winter mud of that field 131 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:04.439 was basically their final stroke of. 132 00:06:04.480 --> 00:06:06.000 Luck because it absorbed the energy. 133 00:06:06.319 --> 00:06:10.079 Exactly. If they had hit concrete or asphalt, the friction 134 00:06:10.199 --> 00:06:13.240 sparks almost certainly would have ignited the tens of thousands 135 00:06:13.319 --> 00:06:17.279 of pounds of highly combustible jet fuel still sitting right 136 00:06:17.279 --> 00:06:17.959 there in the wings. 137 00:06:18.160 --> 00:06:20.399 And that brings us to the most baffling part of 138 00:06:20.439 --> 00:06:23.879 this whole investigation. I mean, for you listening, imagine this. 139 00:06:24.879 --> 00:06:27.839 The passengers are safe, They're sliding down the shoots into 140 00:06:27.879 --> 00:06:30.639 the freezing air. The Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the 141 00:06:30.639 --> 00:06:34.879 time is issuing statements praising the crew rightfully. So yeah. 142 00:06:35.319 --> 00:06:38.959 But then the Air Accident's Investigation Branch, the AaB, led 143 00:06:38.959 --> 00:06:41.800 by this engineer Phil Slight, they arrive on the scene 144 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:43.879 to figure out what just happened, because if it wasn't 145 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:46.639 pilot error and the flight data confirmed the crew did 146 00:06:46.639 --> 00:06:50.160 everything perfectly, what brought down the safest plane in the world. 147 00:06:50.399 --> 00:06:53.360 Right, And when investigators walk up to a wreckage with 148 00:06:53.439 --> 00:06:57.519 a dual engine failure, they immediately look for a common denominator, 149 00:06:57.720 --> 00:06:59.839 something that connects both independent. 150 00:06:59.319 --> 00:07:01.360 Engines, which this usually means fuel, right. 151 00:07:01.439 --> 00:07:04.959 Exactly, the very first thought was fuel exhaustion. This is 152 00:07:05.040 --> 00:07:08.399 super reminiscent of the famous Gillley glider incident from nineteen 153 00:07:08.439 --> 00:07:08.920 eighty three. 154 00:07:09.279 --> 00:07:12.319 Oh right, the Boeing seven sixty seven that ran out 155 00:07:12.319 --> 00:07:15.319 of fuel mid air because of a metric conversion error. 156 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:18.839 Yeah, but that theory evaporated immediately on flight thirty eight, 157 00:07:19.399 --> 00:07:23.720 first responders noted the overwhelming choking stench of jet fuel 158 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:25.279 spilling all over the crash site. 159 00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:28.120 Plus, didn't they literally just check the physical dipsticks in 160 00:07:28.160 --> 00:07:28.879 the wing tanks. 161 00:07:28.959 --> 00:07:31.279 They did, and it proved there was plenty of fuel 162 00:07:31.319 --> 00:07:35.720 left to finish the flight. So the AAIB meticulously traces 163 00:07:35.720 --> 00:07:39.439 the fuel's entire journey. They tracked the exact batches loaded 164 00:07:39.480 --> 00:07:41.560 into the plane, tracing it all the way back through 165 00:07:41.560 --> 00:07:44.360 a pipeline in China to a shipping tanker from South Korea. 166 00:07:44.560 --> 00:07:45.879 Talk about thorough Yeah. 167 00:07:45.920 --> 00:07:48.800 They compared chemical samples against twelve hundred other batches of 168 00:07:48.839 --> 00:07:52.240 fuel sitting in tanks across the UK, and the chemical 169 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:55.759 analysis came back spotless. It was perfectly good fuel, completely 170 00:07:55.800 --> 00:07:57.920 free of any chemical contaminous. 171 00:07:57.319 --> 00:07:59.920 So, okay, if the fuel was there and it was queen, 172 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:02.439 they had to look inside the tanks themselves right to 173 00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:04.920 see if something was physical blocking the lines. 174 00:08:04.959 --> 00:08:08.639 Exactly, so they drained the massive wing tanks, sifting through 175 00:08:08.720 --> 00:08:11.759 thousands of gallons of kerosene, and they actually did find 176 00:08:11.759 --> 00:08:15.759 a few things, A few small pieces of tape and incredibly, 177 00:08:15.959 --> 00:08:17.480 a red plastic scraper. 178 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:20.240 Wait, a literal hand tool, a literal hand tour, just 179 00:08:20.279 --> 00:08:23.079 floating around the pitch black fuel tank of a commercial 180 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:26.120 jet that is mildly terrified. 181 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:29.319 It was left sealed inside the tank seven years prior 182 00:08:29.920 --> 00:08:31.199 by a worker in Seattle. 183 00:08:31.399 --> 00:08:34.600 Wow, I mean it pints a slightly unsettling picture of 184 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:38.799 quality control. Sure, but applying basic fluid dynamics tells us 185 00:08:38.799 --> 00:08:41.720 that a tiny plastic scraper and a few strips of 186 00:08:41.759 --> 00:08:44.559 tape are way too small to choke the mass of 187 00:08:44.639 --> 00:08:47.039 fuel pumps of a seven seven seven right right. 188 00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:49.039 The pumps would just push past them, or the mesh 189 00:08:49.080 --> 00:08:51.440 screens would catch them without actually stopping the flow. 190 00:08:51.600 --> 00:08:53.679 So if the fuel is there and the pipes are 191 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:56.759 physically clear, the AAIB is forced to look at the 192 00:08:56.759 --> 00:08:58.120 plane's digital brain. 193 00:08:57.960 --> 00:09:00.200 Which makes sense because the seven seven seven as a 194 00:09:00.200 --> 00:09:00.639 fly by. 195 00:09:00.559 --> 00:09:03.000 Wire aircraft, meaning there's no physical cables. 196 00:09:02.879 --> 00:09:05.919 Right The pilots don't mechanically pull steel cables to open 197 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:08.919 the valves. They move levers that tell a computer what 198 00:09:08.919 --> 00:09:11.480 they want. The computer sends electrical signals to the engines. 199 00:09:11.960 --> 00:09:15.320 So investigators pull the quick Access recorder, the QAR, which 200 00:09:15.360 --> 00:09:17.120 is basically the diagnostic brain. 201 00:09:17.120 --> 00:09:19.559 And they find something really weird, didn't they? 202 00:09:19.720 --> 00:09:23.360 Yeah, they discovered that it abruptly stopped recording data exactly 203 00:09:23.440 --> 00:09:25.559 forty five seconds before the crash, which. 204 00:09:25.399 --> 00:09:29.120 Is terrifying because less than three years prior, a Malaysian 205 00:09:29.120 --> 00:09:32.879 Airlines seven seventy seven climbing out of Perth had a 206 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:37.559 massive computer glitch that aggressively pitched the plane's nose up right. 207 00:09:37.600 --> 00:09:40.519 It took immense manual effort by the pilots to fight 208 00:09:40.559 --> 00:09:42.039 the computer and save the plane. 209 00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:44.840 So seeing a forty five second data blackout on this 210 00:09:44.919 --> 00:09:48.399 flight basically paralyze the industry, like is the electronic brain 211 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:52.039 fatally flawed? Are all seven seven sevens ticking time bombs? 212 00:09:52.320 --> 00:09:55.240 But then analysts at Farnbro dig deep into the QAR 213 00:09:55.399 --> 00:09:58.320 architecture and they figure out the forty five second gap 214 00:09:58.360 --> 00:09:59.240 isn't a glitch at all? 215 00:09:59.320 --> 00:10:00.559 Oh really what it? 216 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:03.480 It's just how the recorder buffer's data in its temporary 217 00:10:03.559 --> 00:10:05.840 memory before writing it to the solid state drive. 218 00:10:05.799 --> 00:10:09.080 Ah, so the power was cut upon impact before that 219 00:10:09.120 --> 00:10:11.879 buffer could physically right the final second exactly. 220 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:14.799 The computer was actually perfectly fine, and the recovered data 221 00:10:14.840 --> 00:10:18.279 showed that when First Officer Coward asked for power, the 222 00:10:18.320 --> 00:10:23.600 computer immediately demanded fuel. The fuel metering valves were one 223 00:10:23.679 --> 00:10:25.000 hundred percent fully. 224 00:10:24.759 --> 00:10:28.840 Open, So it's literally exactly like flooring the gas pedal 225 00:10:28.879 --> 00:10:31.039 in your car. Your foot is to the floor. The 226 00:10:31.080 --> 00:10:33.559 computer is telling the engine to go. The valves are 227 00:10:33.600 --> 00:10:36.240 completely open, but the engine is just choking to death. 228 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:39.440 Right, The electronic brain was entirely innocent. 229 00:10:39.240 --> 00:10:42.679 Which means something physical, something tangible, was standing in the 230 00:10:42.679 --> 00:10:43.440 way of that fuel. 231 00:10:43.960 --> 00:10:48.000 But what While that realization forced the AAIB into a corner, 232 00:10:48.919 --> 00:10:52.120 Lead engineer Phil Slighte started repeating that famous mantra from 233 00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:56.799 Sherlock Holmes. Whatever is left, however improbable, must be the cause, 234 00:10:57.080 --> 00:11:00.279 because the physical evidence on the plane showed absolutely zero 235 00:11:00.399 --> 00:11:04.440 mechanical faults, the fuel was clean, the computers worked right. 236 00:11:04.679 --> 00:11:06.919 So the prime suspect became the only thing in the 237 00:11:07.000 --> 00:11:10.120 natural world that could strangle two engines simultaneously and then 238 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:13.080 just vanish without a trace before investigators even arrived. 239 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:17.639 Ice, the invisible assassin Ye ice, which basically takes this 240 00:11:17.679 --> 00:11:20.360 whole investigation all the way from the mud of London 241 00:11:20.559 --> 00:11:24.159 to Boeing's highly secure laboratories in Seattle. 242 00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:28.279 Right. Yeah, Investigator Brian McDermott travels to Seattle to test 243 00:11:28.320 --> 00:11:31.799 a very specific, highly complex component of the seven to 244 00:11:31.799 --> 00:11:36.480 seven seven's plumbing, the fuel oil heat exchanger or the FOCH. 245 00:11:36.799 --> 00:11:39.559 Okay, so, the fuel oil heat exchanger, I imagine it 246 00:11:39.559 --> 00:11:41.799 does exactly what it says on the tin, right. It 247 00:11:41.919 --> 00:11:45.080 uses the scorching hot engine oil to warm up the 248 00:11:45.120 --> 00:11:46.879 freezing cold fuel coming in from the. 249 00:11:46.799 --> 00:11:50.720 Wings exactly, and simultaneously it uses that cold fuel to 250 00:11:50.799 --> 00:11:51.879 cool down the hot oil. 251 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:55.799 That sounds like a full proof, beautifully elegant piece of engineering. 252 00:11:55.919 --> 00:11:58.679 It really is. It's designed specifically to prevent ice from 253 00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:01.320 ever reaching the engine. The cold fuel runs through a 254 00:12:01.320 --> 00:12:04.720 series of tiny honeycomb tubes, and those tubes are completely 255 00:12:04.759 --> 00:12:06.720 surrounded by a solid block of hot oil. 256 00:12:06.799 --> 00:12:08.840 But they needed to test if this system could somehow 257 00:12:08.919 --> 00:12:09.919 be defeated. 258 00:12:09.639 --> 00:12:12.440 Right because they knew Flight thirty eight flew over Siberia 259 00:12:12.639 --> 00:12:16.240 where the outside air temperature was a lethal minus seventy four. 260 00:12:16.120 --> 00:12:18.440 Degrees celsius et lanus seventy four unbelievable. 261 00:12:18.559 --> 00:12:22.159 So they put an identical FOHI on a massive test 262 00:12:22.240 --> 00:12:26.440 rig inst Seattle, and they pump freezing cold fuel minus 263 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:30.000 thirty degrees celsius through the pipes. They watched the data, 264 00:12:30.360 --> 00:12:34.200 waiting for the pipes to choke on the ice. Nothing happens. 265 00:12:34.240 --> 00:12:36.120 The ice won't steak, It just flows right through the 266 00:12:36.159 --> 00:12:37.480 tiny tubes and on the other side. 267 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:40.000 See the paradox here is maddening. I mean, if the 268 00:12:40.039 --> 00:12:42.600 air of a Russia was a deadly minus seventy four 269 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:45.559 degrees celsius, how did the fuel and the wings not 270 00:12:45.720 --> 00:12:47.879 just freeze into a solid block of ice right then 271 00:12:47.919 --> 00:12:51.080 and there? And if it's that incredibly cold, why wouldn't 272 00:12:51.080 --> 00:12:53.039 the ice stick to the pipes during their lab tests 273 00:12:53.039 --> 00:12:53.600 in Seattle? 274 00:12:53.639 --> 00:12:55.960 Okay, so let's break down why the fuel didn't freeze 275 00:12:56.039 --> 00:12:59.320 solid over Siberia. First, Yeah, please, While the outside air 276 00:12:59.399 --> 00:13:03.120 was minus seven four degrees, jet fuel is heavily chemically 277 00:13:03.159 --> 00:13:06.200 treated to lower its freezing point. Plus the friction of 278 00:13:06.240 --> 00:13:08.240 the air over the wings and the residual heat from 279 00:13:08.279 --> 00:13:11.240 the plane itself meant the fuel actually never dropped below 280 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:13.480 minus thirty four degrees celsius. 281 00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:15.600 Which is still cold but well above its freezing point. 282 00:13:15.799 --> 00:13:18.759 Exactly, the kerosene itself remained entirely liquid. 283 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:21.480 Right, But the kerosene isn't just kerosene. There's always some 284 00:13:21.639 --> 00:13:23.320 water inside it, right. 285 00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:27.960 Precisely because of condensation forming in those massive hollow wing tanks. 286 00:13:28.200 --> 00:13:30.720 As the plane descends into humid air and then climbs 287 00:13:30.759 --> 00:13:33.960 back up into the freezing stratosphere, there is always a 288 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:38.279 tiny microscopic amount of dissolved water suspended inside the jet fuel. 289 00:13:38.360 --> 00:13:39.320 Okay, that makes sense. 290 00:13:39.440 --> 00:13:41.960 And when the temperature drops during a long flight, that 291 00:13:42.000 --> 00:13:45.600 dissolved water separates from the kerosene and turns into microscopic 292 00:13:45.679 --> 00:13:46.320 ice crystals. 293 00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:47.840 Now there is ice in the fuel. 294 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:51.960 Yes, But and here is the massive breakthrough that took 295 00:13:52.000 --> 00:13:57.120 investigators months of grueling, frustrating lab tests to discover ice 296 00:13:57.200 --> 00:13:59.480 actually does not stick to metal when it is ultra cold, 297 00:14:00.159 --> 00:14:03.879 really really, when it's below minus twenty degrees celsius, those 298 00:14:04.000 --> 00:14:08.240 ice crystals are so deeply solidly frozen that they act 299 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:09.399 like dry grains of sand. 300 00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:12.840 Oh, they lack any surface moisture exactly. 301 00:14:12.360 --> 00:14:14.159 So they just bounce off the metal walls of the 302 00:14:14.159 --> 00:14:16.519 pipes and flow harmlessly into the hot engine where they 303 00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:17.279 are incinerated. 304 00:14:17.320 --> 00:14:19.039 Wow, so they aren't sticky at all. 305 00:14:19.360 --> 00:14:23.200 No, but investigators eventually discovered what they call the sticky range. 306 00:14:23.279 --> 00:14:24.480 The sticky range. 307 00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:28.600 Yeah, between minus twenty degrees celsius and minus eight degrees celsius, 308 00:14:28.720 --> 00:14:32.000 those hard, dry little crystals start to thaw just slightly, 309 00:14:32.200 --> 00:14:34.799 their surfaces melt into a sticky, slushy paste. 310 00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:37.720 Oh no, and that slush will absolutely cling to the 311 00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:39.559 freezing walls of the fuel pipes. 312 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:40.159 Exactly. 313 00:14:40.200 --> 00:14:43.200 So, if we map this scientific revelation onto the exact 314 00:14:43.240 --> 00:14:46.320 timeline of flight thirty eight Man, it reveals the most 315 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:50.519 perfect insidious trap in aviation history. It really does, because 316 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:54.559 for ten hours this flight was incredibly smooth. The autopilot 317 00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:56.799 was keeping the fuel flow very low and very steady, 318 00:14:56.919 --> 00:15:00.320 no massive demands for power, And as the plane left 319 00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:03.279 the deep frieze of Siberian airspace and neared the milder 320 00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:06.679 climate of London, the fuel slowly started to warm up. 321 00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:08.720 It crept directly into that sticky. 322 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:11.960 Range, and as it did, that slushy ice just peacefully, 323 00:15:12.039 --> 00:15:14.919 silently started coating the inside of the fuel lines. It 324 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:16.799 wasn't blocking the flow of fuel at all, It was 325 00:15:16.840 --> 00:15:19.759 just building up on the walls layer by microscopic layer, 326 00:15:20.159 --> 00:15:23.080 like plaques silently building in a human artery. 327 00:15:23.279 --> 00:15:25.399 That's a great way to put it. And it would 328 00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:28.679 have stayed there completely harmlessly. The plane would have landed, 329 00:15:29.080 --> 00:15:31.639 the ambient temperature on the tarmac would warm the pipes, 330 00:15:31.840 --> 00:15:33.639 and the slush would have melted away. 331 00:15:33.600 --> 00:15:35.799 Entirely, leaving zero evidence it was ever. 332 00:15:35.720 --> 00:15:38.519 There exactly, if it wasn't for the trigger. 333 00:15:38.279 --> 00:15:40.159 The turbulent descent into Heathrow. 334 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:44.960 Right at five hundred feet they hit that choppy, turbulent air, 335 00:15:45.440 --> 00:15:48.879 the auto throttle suddenly demanded a massive, violent surge of 336 00:15:48.960 --> 00:15:52.159 power to keep the plane stable on the glide path. 337 00:15:51.919 --> 00:15:53.720 Because they were getting knocked around by the wind. 338 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:56.799 Yeah, we are talking about a demand that went from 339 00:15:56.840 --> 00:16:00.840 a gentle, steady cruise to pushing twe twelve to thirteen 340 00:16:00.960 --> 00:16:04.279 thousand pounds of fuel per hour through those pipes in 341 00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:04.879 an instant. 342 00:16:04.960 --> 00:16:07.960 So it's literally like triggering an avalanche just by yelling 343 00:16:07.960 --> 00:16:11.399 in a snowy canyon. The snow was sitting there harmlessly, 344 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:14.799 but that sudden pressure change, that massive demand for power, 345 00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:18.279 strips the entire coating of slush off the pipe walls. 346 00:16:17.960 --> 00:16:21.679 All at once, Yes, sending a massive concentrated slug of 347 00:16:21.679 --> 00:16:24.440 ice straight down the plumbing toward the engines. 348 00:16:24.279 --> 00:16:27.480 A catastrophic avalanche of slush. But wait, even then, the 349 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:29.960 fuel oil heat exchanger is supposed to melt it, right, 350 00:16:30.159 --> 00:16:34.039 The honeycomb tubes are surrounded by boiling hot oil. Why 351 00:16:34.080 --> 00:16:35.600 didn't it melt this slug of ice? 352 00:16:35.759 --> 00:16:38.159 And this brings us to the ultimate Achilles heel of 353 00:16:38.200 --> 00:16:42.399 the Boeing seven seventy seven investigators closely examined the physical 354 00:16:42.480 --> 00:16:46.039 architecture of that FOHI block. They found that the face 355 00:16:46.120 --> 00:16:49.639 of those tiny honeycomb tubes jutted out just a few 356 00:16:49.679 --> 00:16:52.480 millimeters above the hot oil block itself. 357 00:16:52.120 --> 00:16:53.200 A few millimeters. 358 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:57.279 It was a microscopic physical protrusion, but that tiny unheated 359 00:16:57.320 --> 00:17:00.240 lip of metal was just enough to act as a dam. 360 00:17:00.399 --> 00:17:02.919 It caught the avalanche of slush before the ice could 361 00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:04.319 reach the hot surface to melt. 362 00:17:04.519 --> 00:17:07.640 So the ice just backed up instantly against this unheated lip, 363 00:17:07.720 --> 00:17:10.359 creating a solid plug that choked off the fuel supply 364 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:14.359 to both engines simultaneously. Exact, a multimillion dollar marvel of 365 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:17.279 aviation brought down by a few millimeters of metal, a 366 00:17:17.319 --> 00:17:20.240 few degrees of temperature and a perfectly timed gust of wind. 367 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:23.400 It is the absolute definition of a black Swan event. 368 00:17:23.920 --> 00:17:27.480 The sequence of meteorological and mechanical variables required to make 369 00:17:27.519 --> 00:17:31.799 this happen was so intensely specific that investigators calculated that 370 00:17:31.839 --> 00:17:34.839 out of one hundred and forty four thousand similar seven 371 00:17:34.880 --> 00:17:38.319 hundred and seventy seven flights, less than one percent ever 372 00:17:38.400 --> 00:17:41.079 experienced conditions even remotely close to this. 373 00:17:41.759 --> 00:17:44.240 That is staggering, so they figure out the physics. The 374 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:48.079 lab tests in Seattle finally replicated the exact conditions, But 375 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:50.640 in the world of aviation safety, a lab test isn't 376 00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:53.279 always enough to instantly ground a global fleet or force 377 00:17:53.279 --> 00:17:57.279 a massive mechanical redesign. You need absolute, undeniable proof in 378 00:17:57.319 --> 00:17:58.079 the real world. 379 00:17:58.240 --> 00:18:00.720 And ten months later, in November two thousd the ghost 380 00:18:00.720 --> 00:18:01.640 strikes again. 381 00:18:01.480 --> 00:18:03.880 Which is just chilling. What makes this second incident so 382 00:18:04.000 --> 00:18:06.359 unsettling is that it was an exact copycat. Y A 383 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:08.880 Delta Airlines seven to seven seven is flying from Shanghai 384 00:18:08.960 --> 00:18:12.720 to Atlanta, same exact engine type, same exact flight profile, 385 00:18:12.799 --> 00:18:15.480 over deeply cooled airspace, and at thirty nine thousand feet 386 00:18:15.759 --> 00:18:18.680 over Montana, the hit a patch where the auto throttle 387 00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:21.359 suddenly demands a surge of power, and immediately one of 388 00:18:21.400 --> 00:18:24.319 the engines completely rolls back. It just stops producing thrust. 389 00:18:24.559 --> 00:18:29.119 The exact same sticky range, the exact same sudden power demand, 390 00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:32.599 pulling the slush off the walls, the exact same avalanche 391 00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:35.240 of ice hitting that unheated lip of the heat exchanger. 392 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:38.319 But this time it is not a crash. The Delta 393 00:18:38.359 --> 00:18:42.480 flight lands safely in Atlanta, which, honestly, the sheer luck 394 00:18:42.519 --> 00:18:46.039 involved in this is staggering. If that Delta flight hadn't 395 00:18:46.039 --> 00:18:48.799 experienced the exact same anomaly at an altitude where it 396 00:18:48.839 --> 00:18:53.920 was survivable and recordable, investigators might have spent years chasing ghosts, wondering. 397 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:55.279 If their lab tests were just theoretical. 398 00:18:55.359 --> 00:18:58.079 Yeah, we only know for sure because the elusive culprit 399 00:18:58.119 --> 00:19:01.759 struck again. But tell me this, Why did Delta survive 400 00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:05.319 so easily while British Airways thirty eight crashed into the mud. 401 00:19:05.599 --> 00:19:09.480