1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: With the NFL season right around the corner, what AFC 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,120 future bets did you be getting in right now? 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 2: Well, you're about to find out next. I'm bet on it. 4 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,679 Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here joined by Marco DiAngelo and Yanni. The 5 00:00:28,719 --> 00:00:32,439 Greek boys football season is finally here. 6 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 2: I'm so excited. 7 00:00:33,679 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: We're gonna discuss some division winners today, as well as 8 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,920 some teams to play on or against in the AFC, 9 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,439 some teams to make or miss the playoffs, of course, 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,039 some season win totals, and those Super Bowl champions. 11 00:00:49,359 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: Let's get right into it. 12 00:00:51,439 --> 00:00:54,479 Speaker 1: VR and Iron lockstep early on here in the AFC. 13 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,280 So I'm gonna let him go first. Actually I lied, 14 00:00:58,399 --> 00:01:00,560 all three of us. We've got a trio of three 15 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,719 of us, all like the Buffalo Bills. V. I'll let 16 00:01:03,759 --> 00:01:06,239 you have the floor first, and here what you have 17 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,480 to say, I mean, this is unprecedentedly chalky and disgusting. 18 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,879 Speaker 2: I'm ashamed of us already, I know. 19 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 3: But the thing is, you got to try to cash 20 00:01:14,879 --> 00:01:18,599 a ticket. And the probability is that the Bills are 21 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,840 going to win this division. I think greater than minus 22 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,079 three hundred. I think there's even greater than a seventy 23 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,359 five percent chance they win this division. I mean, this 24 00:01:25,439 --> 00:01:28,280 is a team that won thirteen games in twenty twenty four, 25 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,920 and if you look at the division, they're the only 26 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:35,280 team that had a positive point differential. Everyone else allowed 27 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,000 more points than they scored. So that's the first till 28 00:01:38,079 --> 00:01:44,920 everyone else has to climb. Then they've overtaken the Patriots 29 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,519 a long time ago and they are now that team 30 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,959 that wins it every year. They're going for six three 31 00:01:51,319 --> 00:01:55,159 in the AFC East. I don't see anything changing. You 32 00:01:55,319 --> 00:01:59,120 have MVP quarterback in Josh Allen. Now last year was 33 00:01:59,599 --> 00:02:02,239 his story type of season. He's going to regress off that. 34 00:02:02,439 --> 00:02:05,359 It's it's going to be almost impossible to sustain that 35 00:02:05,439 --> 00:02:07,719 kind of production. But you don't need to in that 36 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,479 division to still win it easily because they just have 37 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,639 so many weapons on offense. They're first in the AFC 38 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,599 as far as point differential goes, only second to the 39 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,039 Detroit Lions in the entire NFL. The only problem. The 40 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,199 only issue is health because they're not they don't have 41 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,759 a lot of depth at the skill position level. So 42 00:02:27,159 --> 00:02:30,439 as long as they stay healthy again, this team is 43 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,800 only going forward because they have an upgraded defense. Now 44 00:02:34,039 --> 00:02:37,719 they added some depth there. They added Joey Bosa, Hairstin, 45 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,919 Tradavius White like this. Now they're not just that offensive team, 46 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,520 they're just as loaded on the defense's side. They were 47 00:02:44,599 --> 00:02:47,120 number one in turnover ratio. I don't love that at 48 00:02:47,159 --> 00:02:49,639 plus twenty four, So they got a little bit lucky. 49 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,599 And the number two team was Pittsburgh and they had 50 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,520 eight less So shows you just how good of a 51 00:02:54,599 --> 00:02:59,800 season Buffalo had. Like they did everything right and they 52 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,800 only gave away two fumbles in the entire season. So again, 53 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,599 their luck probably won't be that good, but it doesn't 54 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,639 need to be to win that division because you look 55 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,240 at everyone else. You look at New England. I know 56 00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:13,560 everyone's excited about them with Josh McDaniel's coming back as 57 00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:15,960 the OC, but you've got a new head coach in Brabele. 58 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,039 That's gonna take a little bit a while. And even 59 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:19,639 though they spent a lot of money in the offseason, 60 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,759 I think the most of the entire NFL and have 61 00:03:21,879 --> 00:03:24,800 an easy schedule, they only won four games last year, 62 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,000 So how forward of the leaper are gonna make? What 63 00:03:27,039 --> 00:03:28,919 are they gonna win eight more games than last year? 64 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,680 Nine more games than last year. That's not gonna happen Miami, 65 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,759 same thing. They only won eight games in twenty twenty four. 66 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,840 The offensive line is a concern to his durability is 67 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,919 a concern. He's gonna have weapons, but the defense allowed 68 00:03:41,639 --> 00:03:44,520 least points in the division. I don't think they're gonna 69 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,280 have that kind of year again. Like I think they're 70 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,520 gonna take a step backwards. The Jets turned rebuilding mode 71 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:52,560 pretty much each and every year now with a new 72 00:03:52,599 --> 00:03:58,000 head coach, rookie in fields of the production. Offense is 73 00:03:58,000 --> 00:03:59,960 going to be a problem. They have an average defense. 74 00:04:00,319 --> 00:04:03,240 I just don't see who's gonna overtake the bills. They 75 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,960 would have to Josh Allen would have to get injured, 76 00:04:06,199 --> 00:04:08,919 they would have to have just so much bad happen 77 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,680 to them to not win this division. I'm surprised they're 78 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,479 not minus four hundred where they win it eight out 79 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,800 of ten times, because I think it's right around there. 80 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,920 It should be Marco. 81 00:04:18,959 --> 00:04:22,639 Speaker 1: As you and I mentioned, there's a value here, right 82 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:27,199 VRE said, hey, they should be priced even higher. But 83 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,800 the reality is, even though there is no value and 84 00:04:29,879 --> 00:04:33,600 we're probably not going to bet it, you can't make 85 00:04:33,639 --> 00:04:35,079 a case for the Jets. 86 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 2: No, the Dolphins. 87 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: Maybe you could make a case for the Pats. You 88 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,360 mentioned in your notes that the Jets are undervalued eighteen 89 00:04:44,399 --> 00:04:46,600 to one. I mean, the Jets aren't. 90 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:47,399 Speaker 2: Gonna win this division. 91 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,439 Speaker 4: The Jets aren't gonna win this division. But well, I'm 92 00:04:51,439 --> 00:04:54,680 talking about where the Jets are undervalue. This is all 93 00:04:54,759 --> 00:04:57,360 the Bills division. Don't get me wrong. You know in 94 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,160 minus three hundred, I agree with Ace. It should be 95 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,759 higher than that. So if you want to say, hey, 96 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,560 there's a little bit of value here, you can do it. 97 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,839 You know, in horse racing, we have a thing where 98 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,279 they're called bridge jumpers, where they'll bet a horse that 99 00:05:11,399 --> 00:05:13,959 can't lose. They'll bet them to show and take that 100 00:05:14,319 --> 00:05:17,319 two ten return, you know, five percent on their money. 101 00:05:17,519 --> 00:05:20,199 The problem or not the problem. The beauty of that 102 00:05:20,399 --> 00:05:24,079 is their money's only tied up for two minutes, okay, 103 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,439 and then they get to get that five percent return 104 00:05:27,079 --> 00:05:29,959 you're talking about. If you want to lay with Buffalo 105 00:05:30,319 --> 00:05:35,079 for minus three hundred, you're laying your money for the 106 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,160 old football season before you can cash that. Now, for 107 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,639 people to do this for a living, and you know, 108 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,680 have your bank rolls, you can make a significant wager 109 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,680 and tie up that kind of money for the average better. 110 00:05:46,879 --> 00:05:49,240 They can't. What do you know, how much money can 111 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,199 you tie up on, you know, for a bet that 112 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,839 you're going to only win, you know, laying three to one. 113 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,879 They're not going to do it. Where I see value 114 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,959 is I think the Jets are going to be under priced. 115 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,279 And I'm talking about on a weekly basis with the 116 00:06:04,319 --> 00:06:07,000 points spread. I don't think the Jets are gonna be 117 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,319 as bad as everybody thinks they are. And there's a 118 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,319 couple of reasons for that. Everybody, well, oh, Aaron Rodgers 119 00:06:12,399 --> 00:06:14,720 is gone. They couldn't get the job done with Aaron Rodgers. 120 00:06:14,759 --> 00:06:17,720 How are they gonna get it done with Justin Fields? Well, 121 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,399 Aaron Rodgers was hurt the first year he was there, 122 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,399 and the second year he had a slow start because 123 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:27,800 he missed the entire season the year before. And he's 124 00:06:27,959 --> 00:06:30,680 ancient okay in age, and we'll talk about him later 125 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,480 now help being with the Steelers, But Justin Field, speaking 126 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,399 of the Steelers, didn't get a fair shake last year. 127 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,480 He was four and two in the six games he 128 00:06:39,639 --> 00:06:43,199 started for the Steelers. I think he's going to the 129 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:48,600 Jets with house money, basically because the expectations aren't high. 130 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,720 You're coming in after Aaron Rodgers. If Aaron Rodgers couldn't 131 00:06:51,759 --> 00:06:54,759 get it done, what are the expectations are you. I 132 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,279 think he really has a chance to excel. And if 133 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,439 you look at this Jets team going back to the 134 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,279 last five years, they were a team that a lot 135 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,439 of people thought were just a quarterback away from being 136 00:07:05,439 --> 00:07:08,040 a super Bowl contender, and they thought once they got 137 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,199 Aaron Rodgers that would happen. They have a mobile quarterback 138 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:18,199 that again was handcuffed with an offensive system when he 139 00:07:18,319 --> 00:07:21,720 was at Chicago, which was a nightmare. He actually was 140 00:07:21,759 --> 00:07:24,639 starting to show some signs of improvement in Pittsburgh, but 141 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,480 because they had the commitment to Russell Wilson, he never 142 00:07:27,519 --> 00:07:30,360 got the chance. I think they are going to be 143 00:07:30,399 --> 00:07:33,399 a betterable team this year. Plus the points you're going 144 00:07:33,439 --> 00:07:37,600 to get them into dog a lot because of the undervalue, 145 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,439 I think they're going to surprise some themes. 146 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:40,399 Speaker 2: That's what I mean. 147 00:07:40,399 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 4: We're finding value in this division. 148 00:07:42,959 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 2: All right, let's move along to the AFC West. 149 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:47,399 Speaker 4: Now. 150 00:07:47,399 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: I think it's funny none of us pick the Chiefs here, 151 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,199 and I think that kind of is for obvious reasons. 152 00:07:52,319 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: Chiefs Chiefs achievements price to win this. 153 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,759 Speaker 1: Division in the last five years, very very telling in 154 00:07:59,759 --> 00:08:02,040 that because I think we're going to see two teams 155 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,920 take a step forward. I'll talk about one of them 156 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,639 and I'll let the boys talk about the other. John 157 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,399 Murray told me back in June when we did a 158 00:08:09,519 --> 00:08:13,000 episode of Kelly and Murray that Broncos got bet to 159 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,079 win this division. They got bet to go over their 160 00:08:16,079 --> 00:08:18,399 season win. Told him, I thought, well, well, wait a minute, 161 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,279 I thought the Broncos kind of superseded some expectations. 162 00:08:21,279 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: That is coming from the girl with the Broncos helmet 163 00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:24,079 behind her. 164 00:08:24,519 --> 00:08:26,279 Speaker 1: But I do think bo Nix in his second year 165 00:08:26,319 --> 00:08:29,120 is going to be very interesting with Sean Payton. I 166 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,959 think my biggest caveat here and why I thought, all right, 167 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,279 let's find a cheap team that can go had toe 168 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,840 to toe with the Chiefs, and everyone seems to like 169 00:08:37,919 --> 00:08:42,360 the Chargers. Obviously, I'll get into that Chiefs disdain and 170 00:08:42,519 --> 00:08:45,320 value later on in the show, as I know the 171 00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:48,320 comments are going to want to say. And by the way, 172 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,559 while we're on that subject, give us the like hint 173 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,080 that subscribe button and if you think we're dead wrong, 174 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,720 tell us in the comments if you agree with us, 175 00:08:55,799 --> 00:08:58,279 we like those comments as well. Vi Are I'm gonna 176 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,720 let you go first. Talk to me about the Chargers 177 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,360 and why you don't think it's gonna be the Denver Broncos. 178 00:09:03,759 --> 00:09:06,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, I really do think this Charger team is live 179 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,519 and if you know, things fall right for them, I 180 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:12,279 think they're gonna surprise a lot of people. They won 181 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,000 the eleven games in twenty twenty four, they had a 182 00:09:15,039 --> 00:09:19,519 better point differential than the division winner Kansas City. That 183 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,759 offense scored the fifth most points in all of the AFC, 184 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,720 and the defense allowed the least points in all of football. Okay, 185 00:09:29,159 --> 00:09:33,240 they made the playoffs in hardball's very first year. A 186 00:09:33,399 --> 00:09:38,440 Bear has even more offensive weapons this time around. Now 187 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,200 the defense. All the talk is they lost Bosa, but 188 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,120 they're still solid. They're still solid. If you look at 189 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,879 their strength of schedule too, it's average mid level. It's 190 00:09:47,879 --> 00:09:49,799 not as if they have the toughest strength of schedule 191 00:09:49,879 --> 00:09:53,840 this year. Now. Kansas City is still the division favorite, obviously, 192 00:09:54,159 --> 00:09:58,480 but with an revamped offensive line, sixth toughest strength of 193 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,320 schedule and all had the fifth best point differential in 194 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,639 the AFC in twenty twenty four, so even though they 195 00:10:04,639 --> 00:10:06,559 represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, they were only 196 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,720 fifth in point differential. Got a little bit lucky there. 197 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,120 Now you look at Denver bo Nicks second season, more 198 00:10:14,159 --> 00:10:18,519 weapons but little regressions. Should be expected from an offense 199 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,799 to score the most points in the division and the 200 00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:24,600 defense that allowed the second least in all of the AFC. 201 00:10:24,799 --> 00:10:27,440 But they benefited from an easy schedule last year, that's 202 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:32,159 for sure. You look at Vegas rebuilding mode, Carrol's first year. 203 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:37,200 Everybody knows about that Geno Smith, rookie running back. They 204 00:10:37,279 --> 00:10:39,120 just need a lot of help. Only two teams scored 205 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,759 less points in the AFC than the Raiders, so they're 206 00:10:41,799 --> 00:10:44,639 just way behind. And they were tied for second and 207 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,639 worse in turnover ratio. Zero wins in the division in 208 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,840 twenty twenty four. They posed absolutely zero threat. I like 209 00:10:51,919 --> 00:10:54,600 the Chargers to overtake Kansas City, and they're giving me 210 00:10:54,639 --> 00:10:56,639 three to one at that shot. Got to take it 211 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,039 at one in four times they surpassed KC. 212 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 1: Marco anything to add to the Chargers analysis from vr. 213 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 4: Oh Kelly, it's more where I'll go is I'll say 214 00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:13,320 why I didn't take Denver. The narrative is Kansas City 215 00:11:13,399 --> 00:11:17,559 is slipping back to the field and Denver and the 216 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:22,159 Chargers are moving closer forward. You're gonna be Team Harbaugh 217 00:11:22,279 --> 00:11:25,080 or you're gonna be Team Peyton. The reason I think 218 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:29,120 you're gonna see a better stump or step forward from 219 00:11:29,159 --> 00:11:32,799 the Chargers is this. They've got the veteran quarterback with 220 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:38,960 Justin Herbert versus bo Nicks. He had a great rookie season. 221 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,200 Can he duplicate that? I talked about it in the 222 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:46,399 other video that we did Sophomore Jinx. The rest of 223 00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:49,519 the league has game film on him. Now, I think 224 00:11:49,759 --> 00:11:54,080 you've got a veteran quarterback that remember with the old 225 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,639 coaching staff, and we made a lot of fun with 226 00:11:56,759 --> 00:11:59,440 the you know, the gambling that he did and everything. 227 00:12:00,279 --> 00:12:03,559 When I say gambling, the chances he took on fourth 228 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,799 downs and different things. This team was still very close 229 00:12:08,039 --> 00:12:10,919 to getting over the hump. Now they've got a good 230 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,440 coach that is in his second year. And compare what 231 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:18,120 happened last year with Sean Payton. From year one to 232 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,279 year two, you saw the big jump up. You're gonna 233 00:12:21,279 --> 00:12:24,519 see that big jump up this year with the Chargers, 234 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,279 and I think they have a better core in the 235 00:12:27,399 --> 00:12:30,480 veteran quarterback to make a bigger leap. I think this 236 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,440 is the Chargers year to get it done. 237 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: All right, Let's move along to the NFC North where 238 00:12:36,879 --> 00:12:41,559 VR and I are in agreement here, and look, Ravens 239 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:47,279 pretty chalky, not horrifically chalky, but chalky enough that I 240 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,919 don't think I would actually get to the window with them. 241 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 2: It's not so much to. 242 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,039 Speaker 1: Play on the Ravens as I just don't see it 243 00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:56,200 being the Steelers, who, by the way, Aaron Rodgers and 244 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,759 I are the same age. I know how I feel 245 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,799 just sitting in this chair these shows, let alone getting 246 00:13:01,879 --> 00:13:04,440 hit by two hundred and fifty pound men. Let's talk 247 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,600 about Joe Burrow his sixth season running a little short 248 00:13:07,639 --> 00:13:11,000 on time. I do believe Lamar has finally bought into 249 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,000 the system with Derrick Henry. 250 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:13,919 Speaker 2: By his side. 251 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,919 Speaker 1: VR, tell me if there's some value here in laying 252 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:18,840 the chalk with the Ravens. 253 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,799 Speaker 2: Minus one sixty five now currently is pretty steep. 254 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,759 Speaker 3: A ton of value. KEL, And here's the key. Here's 255 00:13:24,759 --> 00:13:27,519 what you got to remember. I know that many recreational 256 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:30,600 betters don't want to tie up their money for three 257 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,279 or four months at a minus one sixty. They don't 258 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,000 mind doing it at plus four hundred plus five hundred. 259 00:13:37,279 --> 00:13:40,039 But the goal is to place good bets and move on. 260 00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:44,039 And if you're bet sizing correctly based on your bankroll, 261 00:13:44,519 --> 00:13:47,240 then you shouldn't be worried about tying up your money 262 00:13:47,279 --> 00:13:50,840 long term. The only reason that becomes a problem is 263 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,120 if you're over betting your bank roll or you're underfunded. 264 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:54,879 Speaker 2: That's it. 265 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 3: Otherwise, you should want to place a bet where you're 266 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,000 getting the best of it, and right now the Ravens 267 00:14:01,039 --> 00:14:03,279 at anything less than minus two hundred, he's giving you 268 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:04,919 the best of it. This is a team that won 269 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,919 twelve games in twenty twenty four. They were tied for 270 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,080 first in the AFC in point differential with the Bills. 271 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:16,080 Number one in yards per play? Was this Baltimore team? Okay, 272 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,679 they're the highest. At the end of the season, they 273 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,480 were my highest power rated team in the AFC. The 274 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,080 fact they didn't win the Super Bowl is irrelevant. This 275 00:14:25,159 --> 00:14:27,399 is the NFL. They don't play seven game series. The 276 00:14:27,519 --> 00:14:30,159 cream doesn't always rise to the top. There's a lot 277 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,360 of randomness in the sixty minute football game. But when 278 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,200 that season ended last year, Baltimore was the highest power. 279 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:37,799 There was no one in the AFC that was going 280 00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:40,960 to be favored over Baltimore. Okay, they were a top 281 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,799 three offense and a top three defense, the most balanced 282 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,639 out of everyone that made the playoffs, and they're trying 283 00:14:47,639 --> 00:14:49,759 to be the first team now in division history to 284 00:14:49,799 --> 00:14:52,879 win it three straight. Shows you how competitive this division 285 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,440 has been. Hard Ball's now signed through twenty twenty eight. 286 00:14:56,559 --> 00:14:59,960 There's comfort there. They return their offensive and defensive court, 287 00:15:00,639 --> 00:15:04,600 so no new face is there. The defense was elite 288 00:15:04,799 --> 00:15:07,279 and they just added more to it through the draft. 289 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,840 On offense, they're loaded. The only question mark is the 290 00:15:10,919 --> 00:15:14,279 kicking game because Justin Tucker's finally going. But he's aged now, 291 00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:16,759 so they're doing the right thing. You look at the 292 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:18,840 rest of the division because that's what you have to fade. 293 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:24,000 Cincinnati offense. Coton scored third most points in the AFC, 294 00:15:24,519 --> 00:15:28,679 but they also allow the third most points in the AFC. 295 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,799 They got a new defensive coordinator and they picked up 296 00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:34,679 some draft picks. But you're not tested yet, so you 297 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,879 can't take a flyer on them yet. I just don't 298 00:15:37,879 --> 00:15:39,960 think going out on that risk curve the return is 299 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,240 good enough so far. Pittsburgh the end of the season. 300 00:15:43,279 --> 00:15:46,480 You saw how they unfolded. They lost four straight. They 301 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,320 have a top ten toughest schedule in twenty twenty five, 302 00:15:49,919 --> 00:15:53,159 and Aaron Rodgers isn't in his rookie season, so there's 303 00:15:53,159 --> 00:15:57,159 gonna be questions weren't there with the age and durability. Finally, 304 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,679 Cleveland worst turnover ratio six more than the second worst, 305 00:16:01,679 --> 00:16:03,559 so they should get a little more lucky this year. 306 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,919 But they won three games last season? How far are 307 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,200 they going to progress with the second toughest schedule in 308 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,399 all of football? How the Ravens aren't minus two hundred 309 00:16:13,759 --> 00:16:17,279 is beyond me ton of value at anything less than that, 310 00:16:17,799 --> 00:16:20,200 Ravens win this one easy, all. 311 00:16:20,159 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: Right, Marco, tell me why you're being the contrarian here 312 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,480 and taking the Bengals. 313 00:16:25,879 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 2: Well. 314 00:16:26,559 --> 00:16:28,879 Speaker 4: To use one of your sayings, Kelly, I could have 315 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:30,879 been a chalk eating weasel and went with you. 316 00:16:30,919 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 2: Guys. 317 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 4: I don't disagree that the Ravens aren't the best team 318 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,720 in the division, but you know, we want to find 319 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,320 some value, and I really do believe that the Cincinnati 320 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,039 Bengals present value. And what a said is one hundred 321 00:16:45,039 --> 00:16:50,000 percent true. This team offensively is loaded. They are going 322 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,639 to put up this year. I think you're gonna be 323 00:16:52,639 --> 00:16:56,360 talking about like video game numbers. Okay, with this offense. 324 00:16:56,759 --> 00:17:00,240 The question mark was the defense last year. Yeah, they 325 00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:03,559 made some improvements in the off season, you know, but 326 00:17:03,759 --> 00:17:06,720 will those transform onto the field. We'll have to wait 327 00:17:06,759 --> 00:17:09,480 and see. Obviously it can't be any worse than it was. 328 00:17:10,079 --> 00:17:13,519 But what is going to be better is the start 329 00:17:13,559 --> 00:17:16,839 of the season. If you remember the last few years, 330 00:17:17,039 --> 00:17:19,880 the Bengals have dug themselves holes every year at the 331 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,480 beginning of the season. Whatever the reason was, they got 332 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,960 off the slow starts. Part of the reason a few 333 00:17:25,039 --> 00:17:28,680 years ago Joe Burrow had his appendix taken out in 334 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,599 you know, the middle of summer and then wasn't ready 335 00:17:31,599 --> 00:17:36,160 for the start training camp, missed valuable time. Slow start 336 00:17:36,799 --> 00:17:40,480 last year he was coming off of season ending injury. 337 00:17:40,519 --> 00:17:43,960 The year before there was Russ. He was one of 338 00:17:44,079 --> 00:17:47,519 this coach doesn't like to play his starters in pre season, 339 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,920 so they never got hit the ground running. This year, 340 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,279 coming in what they do week one, starter saw time 341 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:58,559 they got the reps. They are making a concerted effort 342 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,400 to get off to a good start, not dig themselves 343 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,720 a whole, because at the end of the season everybody said, 344 00:18:05,799 --> 00:18:07,519 you know one team you don't want to play in 345 00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:10,880 the playoffs would be Cincinnati. Okay, you don't want to 346 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,440 face that offense. And no matter how bad the defense was, 347 00:18:14,519 --> 00:18:18,400 playing that offense is a threat. The other thing, you 348 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,920 know what, Joe Burrow, I think this is his year, 349 00:18:22,279 --> 00:18:25,400 and this is a spot where I am going to 350 00:18:25,799 --> 00:18:29,319 give you a bonus play. I'm gonna take Cincinnati for 351 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,000 the division at plus two seventy five. But here's your 352 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,359 bonus play for the division. I'm taking Joe Burrow to 353 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,279 win the MVP this year. You can get him at 354 00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:42,440 plus six hundred. Why Well, if everybody's right and this 355 00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:45,319 defense is as bad as it they think it's gonna be, 356 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,200 and Joe Burrow's offense is as good as it is, 357 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,200 he's gonna light up the scoreboard and he's gonna carry 358 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,640 this team and he'll put up those video game numbers. 359 00:18:55,039 --> 00:18:59,400 And yeah, when you talk MVP, what comes to mind. 360 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:06,119 Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, all of those guys 361 00:19:06,279 --> 00:19:09,720 have won the MVPs in recent years. Okay, this is 362 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,640 a league that sometimes when they hand out these awards, 363 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,359 they'll give it to this somebody on the do factor 364 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,279 instead of giving it to a repeat and one thing 365 00:19:18,799 --> 00:19:23,079 that other than Patrick Mahomes that Joe Burrow has in 366 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:27,279 his corner that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen don't have yet, 367 00:19:27,759 --> 00:19:30,680 he's actually made it to a Super Bowl. I'll take 368 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,039 the Bengals plus money for the division, and I'll take 369 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:34,640 Joe Burrow MVP. 370 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 1: Get seven days of unlimited access or flex picks for 371 00:19:40,759 --> 00:19:43,640 just sixty nine dollars unlocked seven days of all access 372 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,039 picks or flex picks for just sixty nine bucks. Guys, 373 00:19:47,039 --> 00:19:49,759 that is less than ten dollars a day for all 374 00:19:49,839 --> 00:19:56,440 of the NonStop action you're gonna get NFL, MLB, UFC, WNBA, soccer, golf. 375 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,319 Speaker 2: And of course much much more. 376 00:19:58,599 --> 00:20:01,759 Speaker 1: You to choose your act spurt or you can switch 377 00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:04,440 things up daily with your flex access. This is the 378 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,400 unlimited deal for the fans who want it all. All right, guys, 379 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,680 we are all in locks up here, and it makes 380 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,359 sense when we're all locks up on the chalk, but 381 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:20,319 now we're all in Lockstep on a dog, A plus 382 00:20:20,319 --> 00:20:24,480 three fifty dog Marco. I'm gonna let you go first. 383 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,960 Tell me why we all like the Colts, because I 384 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:29,759 think we're taking some crazy bills here. 385 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 5: I'll tell you what, Kelly, when I saw the sheet 386 00:20:33,519 --> 00:20:36,519 and saw that we all agreed on the dog, it 387 00:20:37,039 --> 00:20:39,839 scared the hell out. I mean, He'll be honestly, because 388 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,160 you're right to land on a logical choice. Makes sense 389 00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:46,799 for all three of us to take the reach. On 390 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,720 the Colts where we don't even know. 391 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 4: For sure who the starting quarterback is gonna be. You know, yeah, 392 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,960 they want it to be Anthony Richardson, but you know 393 00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:00,079 he's been injury pro, he's underperformed. They got it an 394 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:04,480 insurance policy this year. And Daniel Jones personally, I think 395 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,079 at some point Daniel Jones is going to take over 396 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,839 the quarterback and duties of this team and it will 397 00:21:10,839 --> 00:21:12,920 be his the rest of the season when he does it. 398 00:21:15,319 --> 00:21:17,720 You look at the Colts and the reason I'm on 399 00:21:17,839 --> 00:21:21,200 him is I think Houston's going to take a step back. 400 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,119 And we look at this Colts team in over the 401 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:30,240 last few years, they've been close. What they've missing was 402 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:33,920 a quarterback. Okay, they tried a couple of years when 403 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,079 they tried somebody at the end of their career. Rivers 404 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:42,799 come in here, Ryan, come in here. Then they went 405 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,920 the rookie route that didn't work out. I think one 406 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,119 of two things is going to happen. Either Anthony Richardson 407 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,000 finally has the light bulb go on and he gets 408 00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:56,720 it and he stays healthy and everything's fine. I'll ride that. 409 00:21:57,599 --> 00:22:02,440 Or Daniel Jones gets the shot in a new system. 410 00:22:02,839 --> 00:22:05,480 He was in the Giants. We know what a nightmare 411 00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:07,960 of that team has been over the last several years. 412 00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:11,960 Getting a fresh start here, I think he's better suited 413 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,599 for this offense. This is a team that's got a 414 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,039 solid offensive line, they've got a good defense. If they 415 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:23,960 just get quality, consistent play at quarterback. I think they're 416 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,559 a playoff team out of this division. And once you 417 00:22:26,599 --> 00:22:29,839 get into the playoffs, then anything can happen. I'll go 418 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,640 ahead and take the Colts plus the three point fifty 419 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,400 and let's see what happens as the season progresses. But wow, 420 00:22:37,559 --> 00:22:39,880 all three of us on a dog, Kelly, how often 421 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:40,680 does that happen? 422 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,039 Speaker 1: It is not but the good news that you can 423 00:22:43,079 --> 00:22:45,559 even get plus three seventy at the Westgate Super BOWLK 424 00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:49,720 because I'm guessing that's where our social media producer John 425 00:22:49,759 --> 00:22:54,039 Hoglan got that odd So definitely chop around, guys, and 426 00:22:54,079 --> 00:22:57,519 that is really important when looking for these have multiple 427 00:22:57,559 --> 00:22:58,759 books at your disposal. 428 00:22:59,039 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 2: They're all going to move off what they need. 429 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,559 Speaker 1: You can find an extra ten twenty thirty forty cents 430 00:23:04,599 --> 00:23:07,599 in some of these futures markets, so keep an eye there. 431 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 2: I have much to. 432 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: Add in addition to what Marco said, doesn't matter if 433 00:23:12,039 --> 00:23:14,759 it's Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, I don't think so. 434 00:23:14,839 --> 00:23:17,640 I think Shane Steichen is a great coach. They've got 435 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,640 an upgraded defense and a healthy offensive line. 436 00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 2: VR. 437 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 1: I know you're gonna get into their schedule a little 438 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,480 bit more amongst the running game. 439 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 2: Yeah. 440 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 3: I mean they were in eight nineteen last year with 441 00:23:28,599 --> 00:23:31,200 a minus fifty point differential, but this is a different 442 00:23:31,279 --> 00:23:34,559 year altogether for them. They're gonna have the twelfth easiest schedule, 443 00:23:35,079 --> 00:23:36,839 and I like what Marco said as far as the 444 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,119 quarterback situation. That's the problem. It's the inconsistency of Anthony 445 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:41,519 Richardson because he's got so. 446 00:23:41,519 --> 00:23:43,559 Speaker 2: Many weapons on the offensive side of the. 447 00:23:43,519 --> 00:23:48,279 Speaker 3: Board, got Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, a solid offensive line. 448 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,799 They should be better on the offensive side of the 449 00:23:51,799 --> 00:23:54,960 bowl and I think they will improve this year. Defensively. 450 00:23:55,839 --> 00:24:01,960 You have a defensive coordinator with unimproved defense. Based on 451 00:24:02,039 --> 00:24:04,799 the players they picked up through the draft as well, 452 00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:07,519 you know that they're going to be extra motivated this 453 00:24:07,599 --> 00:24:11,279 year with the passing of ERSA. I just think this 454 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,759 is a team that's completely being overlooked and it's in 455 00:24:14,799 --> 00:24:18,279 a weak division. And getting that plus three to fifty 456 00:24:18,839 --> 00:24:20,839 is what is really attractive to me, because when I 457 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,400 look at Houston, they won their third straight title in 458 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,400 twenty twenty four with ten wins, and they have a 459 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,559 solid defense. They allowed the least amount of points. But Shroud, 460 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,279 he's gonna regress this year for sure. I expect because 461 00:24:33,279 --> 00:24:38,119 of that week offensive line, new offensive coordinator, a toughest schedule. 462 00:24:38,519 --> 00:24:41,599 It's not going to be easy for this Houston team 463 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,559 to repeat Jacksonville. They only won four games last year 464 00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:48,279 because the injury to Trevor Lawrence. A lot of weapons 465 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,680 he returns. I even took a small flyer on him 466 00:24:50,839 --> 00:24:53,279 at MVP at fifty to one. I don't suggest you do, 467 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,440 because the defense is still weak. Only one team allowed 468 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,279 more points than them in the AFC, so they need 469 00:24:59,279 --> 00:25:01,559 the shirt. Add up, I think you have Tennessee, who 470 00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:03,880 only won three games in twenty twenty four, they allowed 471 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:08,039 the most points defensively, second worst toneover ratio in the 472 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,359 entire NFL. They got cam Ward for it, but it's 473 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,839 gonna take a while. They're in rebuild mode. Colts are 474 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,400 live at plus three fifty. I think anything better than 475 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,880 plus two two fifty is good. At three fifty, I 476 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,079 think that's why we're all jumped on the same side. 477 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: Okay, let's keep this train moving. We're gonna talk about 478 00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:33,119 teams we're betting on or against. VR and Marco have 479 00:25:33,599 --> 00:25:35,920 one in common. Marco, I'm gonna let you go first. 480 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,240 Let's talk about why you don't like my Denver Broncos 481 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,119 or your Pittsburgh Steelers. 482 00:25:43,839 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 4: You see, I can see how I'm going against my 483 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:50,599 Pittsburgh Steelers. I have no problem going against the hometown team. 484 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,799 I look every year when we enter the NFL season, 485 00:25:55,319 --> 00:25:58,319 what teams are getting the hype in the talk and 486 00:25:58,319 --> 00:26:02,839 where the excitement is in off season. Okay, and the 487 00:26:03,079 --> 00:26:07,079 remarkable surge that you saw last year from the Denver 488 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,960 Broncos in year two of Sean Payton being the head coach, 489 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:16,960 everybody automatically, you know, assumes it's gonna be another step 490 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,000 forward this year. I'm not sure about that. I talked 491 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,839 about that with the Broncos and can bow Nicks carry 492 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,359 that into the you know, his second season. That's a 493 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,960 team that's gotten a lot of hype. That's why I 494 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,119 think they're gonna be overpriced. Will they be a good team, Yeah? Probably. 495 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,559 Are they gonna contend with the Chargers to try to 496 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,359 overthrow the Kansas City Chiefs? Yeah, but I'm talking on 497 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,759 a week to week basis. I think they're going to 498 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:47,319 be priced overvalued. I think when they are a favorite, 499 00:26:47,319 --> 00:26:49,960 they're gonna be laying too many points. When they're an underdog, 500 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,319 you're not going to be getting what you should be 501 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,960 getting with them. So I'm looking to go against Denver. 502 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,400 And as far as the Steelers go, was there any 503 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,279 more drama than any team in the off season? Then 504 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,079 where's Aaron Rodgers gonna be? Where's Aaron Rodgers going? Is 505 00:27:06,079 --> 00:27:08,759 he signing with Pittsburgh? Is he not signing with Pittsburgh? 506 00:27:08,839 --> 00:27:11,240 That was his last hope, but he still didn't sign. 507 00:27:11,519 --> 00:27:15,039 He waited and waited, and finally he signed. Well, now 508 00:27:15,279 --> 00:27:18,839 the Steelers, everybody remember how good of a start they 509 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,440 had last year and then it all come crumbling down. 510 00:27:21,519 --> 00:27:24,839 When Russell Wilson flamed out at the end of the season. 511 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,599 So everybody's assuming that won't happen this year. It wasn't 512 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,279 just Russell Wilson where the problems were last year. You 513 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,039 know one of them. They got rid of pickets. He's 514 00:27:36,039 --> 00:27:39,319 no longer there, he's at Dallas. But I just don't 515 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,680 see this team being able to do what they're gonna 516 00:27:43,759 --> 00:27:46,519 need to do regarding the points spread on a week 517 00:27:46,519 --> 00:27:48,960 to week basis, They're gonna be just like I said 518 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,039 with Denver. When they are a favorite, they'll be too 519 00:27:51,039 --> 00:27:53,000 big of a favorite. When they're a dog, they're gonna 520 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,119 be undervalued. Let's wait and see what Aaron Rodgers does. 521 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,720 But I'm gonna tell you first few weeks of the season, 522 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,799 I'm gonna be looking for the spots to go against 523 00:28:01,839 --> 00:28:03,599 the Steelers on a weekly basis. 524 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:09,039 Speaker 1: Yanni, add to what Marco said about the Steelers and 525 00:28:09,079 --> 00:28:11,880 why you are saying they are also a bet against 526 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,440 team for twenty twenty five. 527 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 3: They got very lucky last year. Number they were plus 528 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,759 sixteen in turnover ratio, putting them in second best in 529 00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:25,960 all of the NFL. They have the top ten toughest schedule, 530 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,000 like we touched on multiple times. They really outperformed the 531 00:28:30,079 --> 00:28:33,000 betting market last year. Pay attention to at they win 532 00:28:33,079 --> 00:28:36,920 eleven and six against the spread. I don't see that 533 00:28:37,079 --> 00:28:40,839 happen in this year, especially with the Aaron Rodgers text 534 00:28:40,839 --> 00:28:43,279 that's going to be attached to that Pittsburgh Steelers team. 535 00:28:43,599 --> 00:28:46,960 I think they're a fade. You saw them crumble down 536 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,640 the stretch when they needed to win some ballgames, and 537 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,759 I think they're gonna have some problems in that division, 538 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:56,200 especially with the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah, I think it's a 539 00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,559 fade of the Steelers. Got Baltimore there, you have since there. 540 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,079 I think since Pitzer is gonna have a lot of problems, 541 00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:05,720 bade Pittsburgh to look for spots throughout the season as well, 542 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,920 especially early on, because if Rogers gets banged up, it's 543 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,119 a different story. They may be on their valued at 544 00:29:11,119 --> 00:29:15,279 that point, but to start the season it's a different story. Yeah. 545 00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:18,319 Speaker 1: As if we haven't talked about the Buffalo Bills enough, 546 00:29:18,319 --> 00:29:20,839 they are going to be a bet on team for me. 547 00:29:21,519 --> 00:29:25,519 They exceeded their season win total for eight straight seasons 548 00:29:25,519 --> 00:29:29,039 now under McDermott, So keep an eye on betting their 549 00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:31,720 season win total over does that mean, though, that there 550 00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:33,240 is value week to week. 551 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:34,599 Speaker 2: I actually do think so. 552 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,039 Speaker 1: One of their biggest issues has been their defense, and 553 00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,640 this season they used all five draft picks to fill 554 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,480 those holes. We know, as we've talked about with several 555 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,759 other teams, it is Super Bowl or bust. I think 556 00:29:47,799 --> 00:29:51,200 Buffalo is one of those bet on teams again for 557 00:29:51,319 --> 00:29:53,480 the season. And if you missed the analysis for the 558 00:29:53,519 --> 00:29:56,000 first fifteen minutes of the show while we sat there 559 00:29:56,039 --> 00:29:59,440 and talked about the Buffalo Bills, scroll on back and 560 00:29:59,559 --> 00:30:01,160 listen over there. 561 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 2: Now we're gonna get into the playoffs. I asked the 562 00:30:04,519 --> 00:30:05,279 guys that said. 563 00:30:05,119 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 1: Hey, I need a plus money team to either make 564 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:12,480 the playoffs or a heavy favorite to miss the playoffs. 565 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,039 Speaker 2: I'm gonna let Marco go first. 566 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,559 Speaker 1: Marco, tell me why you like the Texans plus one 567 00:30:19,599 --> 00:30:21,359 twenty five not to make the playoffs. 568 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 4: Oh, it's simple, you know, we all like the Colts. 569 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,559 We think the Colts have a big shot to win 570 00:30:26,599 --> 00:30:30,960 that division because I expect regression from the Texans and 571 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,359 this is a division playing and simple two teams aren't 572 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,799 coming out of here for the playoffs. Okay, it's gonna 573 00:30:37,839 --> 00:30:40,519 be the division winner and that's it, and I don't 574 00:30:40,599 --> 00:30:43,599 think the Texans win the division, so I don't see 575 00:30:43,599 --> 00:30:46,519 them making the playoffs as a wild card. You've got 576 00:30:46,519 --> 00:30:50,079 too many other divisions that have much better teams that 577 00:30:50,119 --> 00:30:53,400 are gonna have better records. We talked about probably two 578 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,960 teams out of the AFC North with Baltimore in Sincy. 579 00:30:58,599 --> 00:31:01,839 We got Buffalo will be one and done there. But 580 00:31:02,079 --> 00:31:06,319 you've got Kansas City, the Broncos, and the Chargers. All 581 00:31:06,319 --> 00:31:10,200 three of those teams could make the playoffs. So where's 582 00:31:10,559 --> 00:31:13,160 Houston gonna fit in if they don't win their division. 583 00:31:13,519 --> 00:31:17,000 That's why I'm going with Houston not to make the 584 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,960 playoffs at plus one twenty five. 585 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 1: Okay, VR, you also like Houston not to make the playoffs. 586 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,160 But before you add on to what Marco said, please 587 00:31:27,279 --> 00:31:28,839 let us know what you have going on for. 588 00:31:28,799 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 2: Football season over at wager talk dot com. 589 00:31:31,519 --> 00:31:33,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, you want even want to jump on board twenty 590 00:31:33,319 --> 00:31:37,079 twenty five. Really excited for NFL and college football right now. 591 00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:41,480 I have up my futures package which includes NFL and 592 00:31:41,599 --> 00:31:46,880 college football combo over about nine or ten already in there, 593 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,039 including a five percent big move. The rest will be 594 00:31:50,119 --> 00:31:53,680 four percents because only best bets are going into that package. 595 00:31:53,759 --> 00:31:57,559 You'll get a lot more between now and kickle. Otherwise, 596 00:31:57,599 --> 00:32:01,480 it's week by week looking forward said and especially make 597 00:32:01,519 --> 00:32:03,160 sure bet on it each and every week. I will 598 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,400 be sharing a ton of gold. I'll have a lot 599 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,160 throughout the season. So excited for twenty twenty five. 600 00:32:10,079 --> 00:32:14,079 Speaker 1: We are excited for that gold, those steam plays that 601 00:32:14,119 --> 00:32:16,240 we love to see every single week. But first we 602 00:32:16,359 --> 00:32:18,839 are You have to tell me why you think the 603 00:32:18,839 --> 00:32:22,599 Texans take a step back. As Marco mentioned, we all 604 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,680 like the Colts and that usually correlates with the teams 605 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,160 above them stepping back, but nobody's. 606 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,200 Speaker 2: Really talked about the Jags. 607 00:32:30,559 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: Do we also think the Jags are going to regress 608 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,839 even further than they did the last two seasons. 609 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,519 Speaker 3: No, not really, because I'm hoping a healthy Trevor Lawrence 610 00:32:39,519 --> 00:32:42,319 improves that team. But I just think they're just way behind, 611 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,240 like they have a lot to make up. Having won 612 00:32:45,359 --> 00:32:48,559 only four games last year, this Texas team was as 613 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,119 the Texans, howarres phony is a three dollars bill. I 614 00:32:51,119 --> 00:32:54,559 mean again, they won ten games, they won the division, 615 00:32:55,039 --> 00:32:58,920 but they had a negative zero point differential. That's not 616 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,640 like you play that teason out ten thousand times. They're 617 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,400 not going to win ten games with a zero point 618 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,880 differential in the NFL. So they really got lucky. That's 619 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:08,960 not going to happen back to back year, especially when 620 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,920 you have an eighth toughest schedule in all of football. Again, 621 00:33:13,039 --> 00:33:17,039 a healthy Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. You know, Tennessee, what's 622 00:33:17,079 --> 00:33:19,480 Tennessee really gonna do? They didn't. They were the worst 623 00:33:19,519 --> 00:33:22,319 team in all football. But they're excited with the number 624 00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:25,880 one draft pick. And then you have the Colts, which 625 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,400 I think are on the up. So this is gonna 626 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,240 be a big test for Texas. And I just don't 627 00:33:32,279 --> 00:33:34,759 think they're that team. They're not that team that's going 628 00:33:34,839 --> 00:33:37,359 to like take over and now be dominant in that 629 00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:40,839 in that division. So fade the Texans look for spots 630 00:33:40,839 --> 00:33:44,400 throughout the season as well, especially early on another overvalued 631 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:45,920 team going into twenty twenty five. 632 00:33:46,599 --> 00:33:49,599 Speaker 1: All right, and everybody to break themselves. Do not freak 633 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,960 out because I can hear the comments section. 634 00:33:52,079 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 2: Now Colleys are just a Chiefs hater. That is not 635 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:56,839 the case. 636 00:33:56,839 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 1: But I do think there is a lot of value 637 00:33:59,279 --> 00:34:02,119 here in betting Chiefs not to make the playoffs. 638 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,039 Speaker 2: Plus three forty. 639 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,760 Speaker 1: Not only is their schedule just absolutely brutal, they play 640 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:15,400 nine playoff teams in seven primetime games. Also, let's take 641 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,559 a step back. When's the last time Kansas City lost 642 00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:20,119 to Super Bowl? Oh, that's right to the Bucks. And 643 00:34:20,159 --> 00:34:23,239 then they followed it up with an eight to nine season. 644 00:34:24,119 --> 00:34:26,360 I will say this, I was reading Mark Lawrence a 645 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,360 couple of weeks ago, and he almost scared me off 646 00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,119 this bet. With the stat forty of the last fifty 647 00:34:31,159 --> 00:34:34,239 seven Super Bowl losers have still made the playoffs the 648 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,840 following season. But as we've spoken about the AFC West 649 00:34:38,119 --> 00:34:42,559 and the Broncos and Chargers both looking very competitive, I'm 650 00:34:42,559 --> 00:34:45,360 gonna take the Chiefs and Andy Reid to take that 651 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,559 step backwards and not make the playoffs. 652 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 2: Time to get into those Super Bowl champions. 653 00:34:54,039 --> 00:34:57,719 Speaker 1: Marco DiAngelo, I'm gonna let you go first, but please 654 00:34:57,800 --> 00:34:58,920 let everybody. 655 00:34:58,519 --> 00:35:01,559 Speaker 2: Know what you have going on on at wager Talk. 656 00:35:02,199 --> 00:35:04,760 In terms of specials, Well. 657 00:35:04,599 --> 00:35:06,519 Speaker 4: We've got a special going right now. You can get 658 00:35:06,519 --> 00:35:11,599 the entire football season, college and pro through the Super Bowl, 659 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,639 not only me, but pairing up we're packaging it with 660 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,719 Ben Burns. You can buy me by myself. That's still 661 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,159 available But if you want to get the top two 662 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:26,400 football handicappers from last year college and football combined money won. 663 00:35:26,599 --> 00:35:29,400 Ben was number one, I was number two. You can 664 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,000 get both of us for fourteen and ninety eight dollars. 665 00:35:33,639 --> 00:35:37,360 That's a discount off of buying us individually, and it 666 00:35:37,599 --> 00:35:40,639 also has a bonus. You'll pick up a seven day 667 00:35:40,679 --> 00:35:44,679 flex package from both of us where you can use 668 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:50,400 for Baseball, WNBA, any other plays that we have. Whenever 669 00:35:50,519 --> 00:35:52,360 we have a big play or something and you want 670 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,960 to grab it, you'll have seven opportunities to do it 671 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,519 with a seven day flex package that you can stretch 672 00:35:59,559 --> 00:36:02,480 that out whenever you like. So check that out over 673 00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,719 at wager talk dot com right now. 674 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:11,440 Speaker 1: Okay, Marco, tell me why you like the Cincinnati Bengals 675 00:36:11,639 --> 00:36:13,159 to win the Super Bowl. 676 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, I was between two. I could have went 677 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,800 with the Chargers or I could have went with Cincinnati. 678 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,840 Those were my two picks for the long shot to 679 00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,159 win the Super Bowl. But I have been talking the 680 00:36:25,199 --> 00:36:29,000 Bengals the entire show, So why stop now. I'm gonna 681 00:36:29,039 --> 00:36:31,480 go ahead and take the Bengals in. As I mentioned 682 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,440 when I talked about him for MVP, the one thing 683 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:38,119 that Joe Burrow does have on his resume that Josh 684 00:36:38,159 --> 00:36:42,039 Allen and Lamar Jackson doesn't. Is he was able to 685 00:36:42,079 --> 00:36:46,920 beat the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC playoff game 686 00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,320 to get to the Super Bowl, where those other guys 687 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,440 have not yet. I think they have a big shot 688 00:36:52,519 --> 00:36:55,039 this year. But if you want to split the bet, 689 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,920 I have no problem taking the Bengals at twenty two 690 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,760 to one for the Super super Bowl and to take 691 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,800 the Chargers at plus twenty five to one. I think 692 00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:10,360 the AFC is more wide open and more vulnerable. I 693 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:18,039 know everybody likes the top two Buffalo and Buffalo in Baltimore, 694 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,800 but Kansas City is still there, which gives value because 695 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:26,719 people still believe in them. In Patrick Mahomes and the 696 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,599 Swifties had to get one swiftly in on the show 697 00:37:29,599 --> 00:37:30,480 The Swifties. 698 00:37:30,519 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 2: I don't know. 699 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,039 Speaker 1: Just as you were saying that, I was on Instagram 700 00:37:33,079 --> 00:37:35,719 and I noticed Travis Keltic's GQ. 701 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:36,320 Speaker 2: Shoot. 702 00:37:37,599 --> 00:37:41,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, anyway, VR, you're going to take the Chargers since 703 00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,880 Marco was undecided, So tell me why you think. John 704 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:50,119 Harbaugh excuse me, Jim Harbaugh, good grief, Jim Harbaugh is 705 00:37:50,199 --> 00:37:51,920 going to win a Super Bowl. 706 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 3: And I just put a dying right now on the 707 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,159 Chargers at twenty five to one. They're now twenty four 708 00:37:56,199 --> 00:37:58,239 plus twenty four to seventy five at Sports four to 709 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,000 one one. So if you're looking at your odd screen 710 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,039 and I like your Chargers play, and that's what I 711 00:38:02,079 --> 00:38:04,840 gave out, I like Cincinnati as well, Marco, and that 712 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,599 was a short play. Burrow to win the MVP at 713 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,400 five to one or greater, and you could get six 714 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,440 to one out there. That scares me a little bit. 715 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,800 Cincinnati's probably worth a sprinkle. But I really do think 716 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,559 this Chargers team should not be twenty five to one Baltimore. 717 00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,800 It's better than six to one. Surprises me as well. 718 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,320 To be honest with you, I thought they should be 719 00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,599 a little higher than that, And in fact, I'm seeing 720 00:38:27,639 --> 00:38:31,280 Baltimore at seven to one in some spots. But at 721 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,559 twenty five to one, again, this doesn't eleven win football team. 722 00:38:35,639 --> 00:38:39,039 Last year, they had a better point differential than Kansas City. 723 00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:42,800 I'll repeat that Kansas City lost the Super Bowl last year. 724 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,159 Like Kelly gave that trend may make the playoffs, but 725 00:38:46,199 --> 00:38:48,360 I do think they're going to take a step back. 726 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,079 This is one of the most potent defenses in all 727 00:38:52,119 --> 00:38:55,039 of football. I think the overreaction to the Bosa loss 728 00:38:55,159 --> 00:38:59,039 isn't warranted because again they're just loaded everywhere there, and 729 00:38:59,079 --> 00:39:01,920 I think the offense takes another step forward. Hopefully they 730 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:05,159 protect the football as well as last season. They have 731 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,000 a tough schedule this year, I mean an average schedule 732 00:39:08,039 --> 00:39:10,760 this year compared to a tougher schedule prior. So I 733 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,000 think the Chargers again at twenty five to one, just 734 00:39:13,079 --> 00:39:15,760 get into the playoffs and with all that equity, we 735 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,639 should be able to make some money off then. 736 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,840 Speaker 1: And that's exactly why VR. I like the Denver Broncos 737 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:26,840 at twenty five to one. We mentioned Bo nicks possible 738 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,960 sophomore slump, and I think that he is going to 739 00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,800 be able to come out of this under Sean Payton 740 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:38,000 and not regress. Another thing that I think is we're 741 00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,880 going to see a better defense. Yes, they had one 742 00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,639 of the best defenses in the league last year, so 743 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,400 that helped Bo Knicks in making some of those rookie mistakes. 744 00:39:47,679 --> 00:39:50,639 But this defense is going to be a top three 745 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,239 defense in the league. I know last year they had 746 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,079 no running game and it was so frustrating with Javonte 747 00:39:57,119 --> 00:39:59,920 Williams in the backfield, but they got two rookie whe 748 00:40:00,199 --> 00:40:04,039 receivers to take his place, a great offensive line for 749 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,639 those two, and bow Nicks to play behind. And speaking 750 00:40:07,679 --> 00:40:09,880 of positive regression, which has been the name of the 751 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:14,679 show Broncos last season one in six and one score games, 752 00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:17,360 we're gonna see if things don't start to go their way. 753 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:18,840 Are the Broncos gonna win the Super Bowl? No, of 754 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,360 course they're not going to. Is there value in them 755 00:40:21,599 --> 00:40:23,679 at twenty five to one? Yes, I actually think the 756 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,320 Baltimore Ravens are finally gonna get the monkey off their 757 00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,760 back and win the Super Bowl this year. But it's 758 00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,559 not a lot of things there, guys, just my personal opinion. 759 00:40:34,079 --> 00:40:37,000 Let's bring back into Marco and VR say goodbye to you, guys. 760 00:40:37,559 --> 00:40:40,599 I won't see you guys for a whole week. If 761 00:40:40,639 --> 00:40:44,639 you guys want to catch the NFC version of this show, 762 00:40:44,679 --> 00:40:47,159 you can watch it right here on the wager Talking 763 00:40:47,159 --> 00:40:50,320 YouTube channel. And if you're into betting college football, you 764 00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,920 can check out our college football preview of bet on 765 00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:57,000 It both up right now on the wager Talk YouTube channel. 766 00:40:57,199 --> 00:41:00,800 Guys will be back for NFL Week one for the 767 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:01,880 NFL edition to bet On. 768 00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,559 Speaker 2: Of course, we'll be back next week. 769 00:41:03,599 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 1: I'll be live from Ireland to talk about those five 770 00:41:06,679 --> 00:41:07,840 college football games. 771 00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,639 Speaker 2: Until next week, let's bet on it.