1 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: Hello, Hello, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast 2 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,600 on this Monday. Today is the ninth day of March. 3 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,159 Year of our over twenty twenty six. My name is 4 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:38,280 Tom Sullivan, and oh, we've got a lot going on today. 5 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,960 And when we've got the war in Iran and elsewhere 6 00:00:42,039 --> 00:00:46,439 in the Gulf region, we've got oil prices that are 7 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:50,479 at levels we haven't seen in a long long time. 8 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:58,359 There was a very close call in New York City 9 00:00:58,399 --> 00:01:03,280 over the weekend with a couple of terrorists that are 10 00:01:03,399 --> 00:01:09,599 now being charged with terrorist attacks, and luckily they wound 11 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,200 up not killing anybody, but it could have killed a 12 00:01:12,239 --> 00:01:14,439 lot of people. So we'll get into all of that. 13 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:20,319 Plus welcome the daylight savings Harry Anton has. Yes, it's 14 00:01:20,359 --> 00:01:22,599 not people don't like the change that let me just 15 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,079 put it that way. But let's start. Let's start with 16 00:01:25,159 --> 00:01:29,920 oil prices, because oil affects all of us, whether you 17 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,280 drive a car, or you heat your home or whatever 18 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:36,840 it might be. And oil prices are just through the roof. 19 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,159 I think I can give you some good news because 20 00:01:40,239 --> 00:01:44,920 oil prices overnight, what did they get to? They went 21 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,040 up to they hit one hundred and nineteen dollars a 22 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:53,799 barrel during overnight trading. When we opened the stock market 23 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,599 in New York this morning, oil prices were at one 24 00:01:56,719 --> 00:01:59,959 hundred dollars a barrel. Wall streect did not like that, 25 00:02:00,159 --> 00:02:04,840 so down, down, sharply down over eight hundred points at 26 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,560 the open, eight hundred and eighty six points lower on 27 00:02:08,599 --> 00:02:11,719 the Dow when we opened. But all of that has 28 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,800 calmed down considerably. Oil prices, like I said, we're one 29 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,319 nineteen and then they came down to one hundred dollars 30 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:24,080 when we traded, and now we're at eighty six dollars 31 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,560 and some change as we record this podcast on this 32 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:32,800 Monday afternoon, so it's certainly above where it was. We've 33 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:37,080 been running oil in the high fifties, low sixties before 34 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,840 the iron situation popped up, So eighty six still is 35 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,479 very expensive, but it's very volatile as we go through 36 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,319 this afternoon as far as let's let's get this oil 37 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,360 analyst here and to see where it's going to go 38 00:02:52,439 --> 00:02:52,960 from here. 39 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 2: A lot of headlines obviously moving around. And it's funny, 40 00:02:56,159 --> 00:02:58,280 while we were waiting to start here, I just got 41 00:02:58,280 --> 00:02:59,960 a text from a friend of mine in the wholesale 42 00:03:00,319 --> 00:03:03,199 gasoline market said it's hard to believe I'm saying this, 43 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,360 but Gasolene's only up ten cents today, So you know, 44 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,000 you when you yeah, that seems to make sense to me. 45 00:03:09,479 --> 00:03:10,439 Speaker 3: You know, kind of going. 46 00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 2: Back to twenty twenty two, that's what helped bring prices 47 00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:14,879 back down from that one hundred and thirty dollars type 48 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,360 level after Russia invaded Ukraine. It was the release from 49 00:03:18,439 --> 00:03:21,520 the COORDINATID releases from strategic reserves that helped start to 50 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,639 bring down the price. Maybe the market is kind of 51 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,919 front running that a little bit here to see if 52 00:03:26,039 --> 00:03:29,159 what happens tomorrow. But again, I think if the US 53 00:03:29,159 --> 00:03:31,479 does release from the SPR it's going to be oil 54 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,039 that eventually gets exported. I think refiners here in the 55 00:03:35,159 --> 00:03:38,080 US are are fine and comfortable from a from a 56 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,159 supply standpoint. Over the past ten to fifteen years, the 57 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,240 US has really kind of wing themselves off of Middle 58 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,400 Eastern oil to the point where it's maybe eight to 59 00:03:47,439 --> 00:03:52,159 ten percent of weekly inventory weekly imports. Obviously Canada and 60 00:03:53,039 --> 00:03:55,879 Mexico or our two key suppliers to the United States. 61 00:03:56,199 --> 00:03:58,439 And you know, stay tuned. But over the next you know, 62 00:03:58,439 --> 00:03:59,960 a couple of years, you're going to see more venuzuel 63 00:04:00,039 --> 00:04:01,120 only crew come to the US. 64 00:04:01,319 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: So what he's referring to is tomorrow there is going 65 00:04:04,919 --> 00:04:09,560 to be a oil minister's meeting at which they are 66 00:04:09,599 --> 00:04:13,319 going to be discussing whether or not to release oil 67 00:04:13,439 --> 00:04:18,959 from their various strategic petroleum reserves. These are oil ministers 68 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,319 from the G seven and they're meeting tomorrow morning, and 69 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,720 the market obviously is pricing in the fact that they're 70 00:04:24,759 --> 00:04:26,519 going to be releasing more oil. 71 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 4: Now. 72 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,879 Speaker 1: I don't want to get I don't want to get 73 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:33,360 into Joe Biden releasing it for political reasons, but we're 74 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,000 not back up to where we should have been oil 75 00:04:36,079 --> 00:04:39,360 strategic petroleum reserve. Well, it's not where it should be, 76 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:46,439 but we have let's see, we have four hundred and 77 00:04:46,519 --> 00:04:51,120 fifteen million barrels. That's about fifty eight percent of the 78 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:56,480 capacity of seven hundred and fourteen million barrels. And speaking 79 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,720 of the price, I mean that if we're Department of 80 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,519 Energy wants to try to ref fill the petroleum reserve, 81 00:05:01,959 --> 00:05:03,759 the prices are way up, is going to be much 82 00:05:03,759 --> 00:05:06,600 more expensive. Maybe they were doing it before, I don't know. 83 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,519 One of the benefits of higher oil is for Russia. 84 00:05:11,399 --> 00:05:16,639 That is the basis of their foundation, of their economic foundation, 85 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,959 and so with oil going up, Russians are licking their 86 00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:23,800 chops on getting a lot more money for the oil 87 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,079 that they produced from Russia. But as far as the 88 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:31,480 SP the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve again, the G 89 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:38,720 seven ministers are meeting tomorrow Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, 90 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,800 United Kingdom, and the United States and they're talking about 91 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:47,600 releasing maybe three hundred to four hundred million barrels, so 92 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:52,639 that would again, the US can't do this all by themselves. 93 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,199 We will release some, I'm sure, but since we're down 94 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,399 because thank you, Joe Biden, we're not going to be 95 00:05:59,399 --> 00:06:01,480 able to handle us all by ourselves. So we're going 96 00:06:01,519 --> 00:06:05,199 to need the G seven to do that. But that, 97 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,639 I think, more than anything else, is driving prices lower 98 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,879 as we get through the treading day to day. Now, 99 00:06:13,079 --> 00:06:17,800 there's another problem with a number of the Middle Eastern 100 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:21,959 countries producing oil. They have no place to put it. 101 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,720 They usually produce oil and put it on a ship 102 00:06:26,759 --> 00:06:31,360 and export it, but the ships can't move. So here's 103 00:06:31,399 --> 00:06:34,560 an oil analyst talking about the problem that they have 104 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,480 in the Middle East of oil storage. Or they're going 105 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,639 to have to cut back production. Well, the constraints around 106 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,199 supply are really concerning at the moment, and indeed the 107 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,439 storage conversation is a growing risk to What we're seeing 108 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,199 is these major producers in the Gulf being forced to 109 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,399 shot production in because the reality of the situation is 110 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,720 you can pump the oil out of the ground, but 111 00:06:56,959 --> 00:06:59,480 if you have nowhere to export it, then it has 112 00:06:59,519 --> 00:07:01,839 to be put in to storage. At the moment, the 113 00:07:01,959 --> 00:07:05,439 estimate is we have about twenty five days worth of 114 00:07:05,519 --> 00:07:08,959 storage remaining. That is, twenty five days until the storage 115 00:07:08,959 --> 00:07:11,839 capacity of the region is full. So of course we 116 00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:15,759 are seeing producers already scaling back some production, but of 117 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,519 course how long they're willing to hold production off and 118 00:07:18,879 --> 00:07:20,879 how long the strait of horror moves is going to 119 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,839 remain closed is a key key question mark at this 120 00:07:23,959 --> 00:07:26,360 point as well. A lot of analysts that I've been 121 00:07:26,399 --> 00:07:30,160 talking to saying the biggest unknown unknown at this point 122 00:07:30,439 --> 00:07:34,079 for anyone exposed to these markets and for global energy 123 00:07:35,319 --> 00:07:38,759 trading right now is the duration risk. We still haven't 124 00:07:38,759 --> 00:07:42,360 got any signals of a potential off ramp, either militarily 125 00:07:42,519 --> 00:07:45,639 or diplomatically, and that's obviously a key concern right now 126 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:46,040 as well. 127 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:46,959 Speaker 5: Part of the reason. 128 00:07:47,199 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 6: We also saw this enormous spike in the price of oil, 129 00:07:50,399 --> 00:07:53,240 and of course risk assets also in the crosshas here 130 00:07:53,519 --> 00:07:56,240 not just in Asia, but in Europe and likely in 131 00:07:56,279 --> 00:07:57,720 the United States today as well. 132 00:07:58,399 --> 00:08:00,639 Speaker 1: So there's a problem. And the question keep coming up 133 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,199 about when will the strait of horror movies open back 134 00:08:03,279 --> 00:08:06,639 up again, and nobody has that answer. And before we 135 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,040 get too far into this podcast, I want to also 136 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:14,879 pause because the attack in that base that we had 137 00:08:14,959 --> 00:08:19,959 in Kuwait, where six US soldiers were killed right out 138 00:08:19,959 --> 00:08:24,480 of the first day of the conflict, there was a 139 00:08:24,519 --> 00:08:27,519 number of them injured. One of them died, so we're 140 00:08:27,519 --> 00:08:33,320 now seven deaths from US troops. This was Sergeant Benjamin 141 00:08:33,639 --> 00:08:37,919 Pennington is the latest casualty and his body will be 142 00:08:38,039 --> 00:08:41,639 returned to Dover Air Force Base later tonight. So he 143 00:08:41,799 --> 00:08:45,039 was part of the group of the six that were killed. 144 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,279 And there are I think fifteen injured. I don't know 145 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,000 the level of injuries, but obviously this was severe enough 146 00:08:52,039 --> 00:08:56,639 where Sergeant Pennington passed away last night. Back to oil, 147 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,639 oil is used obviously in everything. I mean, if you 148 00:09:00,799 --> 00:09:03,639 have something plastic oil, it was part of the it's 149 00:09:03,639 --> 00:09:10,440 a petroleum product that makes plastic. Airlines are facing the 150 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:15,200 price of fuel for airlines, it's gone jet fuel has 151 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,200 gone from one hundred and eighty dollars is now up 152 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,200 to two hundred and thirty dollars, So a major spike there. 153 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,320 You and I are going to be facing the same 154 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,960 thing at the pump. The average gas price is now 155 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,480 three dollars and forty eight cents. A week ago it 156 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,799 was two dollars a naughty eight cents, So it's gone 157 00:09:32,879 --> 00:09:37,519 up fifty cents since the conflict in the Middle East. 158 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,720 So this obviously will add to all the inflation factors 159 00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:46,960 when we look back down the road. But so oil prices, 160 00:09:47,039 --> 00:09:51,000 gas prices, jet fuel prices going up. One of the 161 00:09:51,039 --> 00:09:56,120 biggest aircraft lessors in the world is air Lease, and 162 00:09:56,159 --> 00:09:59,720 their CEO, John Fluger, was talking about the problems the 163 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,600 are running airplanes. 164 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 7: Well, to your point, we have been there before. We're 165 00:10:03,759 --> 00:10:06,440 pretty early on in this conflict. A little too hard 166 00:10:06,799 --> 00:10:10,720 to tell from the consumer perspective for sure. For sure 167 00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:13,360 we will expect to see higher airfares, airfares nudging up 168 00:10:13,399 --> 00:10:16,480 to cover this increase in fuel prices. But you know, 169 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,080 it was this kind of a fuel price surge that 170 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,600 spiked the new generation of aircraft with a new generation 171 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,759 of engines. Those are out there and flying all over 172 00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:29,559 the place. Forward bookings from what we can see across 173 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,720 the airlines have not been impacted yet. You know, the 174 00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:36,200 four bookings are continuing. Airplanes are not being parked in 175 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,399 mass for any reason. They're all still flying. So I 176 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,080 think we just have to wait and see how this 177 00:10:41,159 --> 00:10:44,320 plans out. The airline industry has learned to deal with 178 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,159 high fuel prices, and the question is how long will 179 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,559 it be. So far, I think it's a little premature 180 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:53,279 to raise super big alarm bells. Mostly they're keeping them 181 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,399 ready for flying. They're not parked in what's called long 182 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,799 term storage, meaning that they plan to continue to fly. 183 00:10:58,879 --> 00:11:02,039 All those aircraft and leisure traffic will certainly book away 184 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,039 from the Middle East right now. They'll go to Asia 185 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,879 the Americas like that has always happened anytime as a 186 00:11:07,919 --> 00:11:11,559 regional conflict business traffic. We'll have to see how that 187 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,639 plays out. But again it's so early to tell. But 188 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:16,399 one thing I can tell you for sure is this 189 00:11:16,519 --> 00:11:20,080 industry has proven time and time again it is very resilient. 190 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,000 The airlines will work through this. The consumer is going 191 00:11:23,039 --> 00:11:25,279 to have to pay some cost and ticket prices, but 192 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,799 a little premature to really sound the red flags. 193 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 1: I think so too. Again, it's been one week and 194 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:36,200 one of the other stories has been about the Americans 195 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:40,120 that were stranded over in the Middle East. And while 196 00:11:40,159 --> 00:11:44,600 the State Department says that they have assisted twenty three 197 00:11:44,639 --> 00:11:48,799 thousand Americans, helping them get out of the war zone, 198 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,120 but at the same time, there's others that are complaining 199 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,600 because they want the government to take care of them. 200 00:11:55,840 --> 00:12:00,360 And actually, if you look at the flight trackers, there's 201 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:04,639 a steady stream of airlines that are coming and going 202 00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:09,399 from the major airports in Doha and Abu Dhabi, and 203 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,639 the planes are flying. It's a limited schedule, but they 204 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:17,399 are flying. So I'm not so sure I would want 205 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:22,279 to do that. But I just soon stay in place 206 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,519 and not get an airline. Getting hit by a missile 207 00:12:25,639 --> 00:12:28,159 is not a good place to sit. But for those 208 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:29,879 of you that do want to travel and you're not 209 00:12:29,919 --> 00:12:35,480 going to the Middle East, the funding for Department of 210 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:42,039 Homeland Security TSA is starting to have some serious repercussions. 211 00:12:42,039 --> 00:12:46,679 At Houston Hobby, they're talking there about three No, they 212 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,679 said three this morning, is now four to five hour 213 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,559 weight line in the TSA line four to five hours 214 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,080 before you get through the TSA checkpoint at Houston Hobby. 215 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:02,000 There's also long at least three hours worth at New 216 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:06,480 Orleans and Atlanta. So I'm not sure about your airport, 217 00:13:07,159 --> 00:13:09,879 but I would imagine that all of them are having 218 00:13:09,879 --> 00:13:13,519 the same problem, which is TSA agents can't go forever 219 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,840 without a paycheck, and so they're calling in sick so 220 00:13:16,879 --> 00:13:21,120 they can go get a temporary job somewhere else. Everybody, 221 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,360 everybody was warned about this. All the people in the 222 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,639 Middle East were warned to get I remember seeing the 223 00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:31,600 notices get out, get out, get out, but they waited 224 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:36,519 until afterwards. And now I don't know what the complain 225 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,559 is because the airlines are in fact flying into and 226 00:13:40,759 --> 00:13:45,320 out of these war zone airports. As far as the 227 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,399 prosecution of the war, I don't know if you are 228 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:55,840 like me in this regard. I'm watching all of the television. 229 00:13:55,919 --> 00:14:00,159 This is all television producers. I don't want to say 230 00:14:00,159 --> 00:14:03,960 they love this, but they can use all these things, 231 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:10,399 planes taking off, aircraft, carriers, things exploding, and watching all 232 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,879 of that stuff blow up. That's all that's all keeps 233 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,519 eyeballs on television. The problem having with this is it 234 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:21,039 feels like it's kind of propaganda to me, because Iran 235 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:25,279 hasn't folded and they're still they're still doing a lot 236 00:14:25,279 --> 00:14:28,919 of damage where they want to do damage. And it's 237 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,200 because not so much necessarily of the missiles that we're 238 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,279 trying to eliminate all their missiles that they have, but 239 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,000 they've been making hundreds and hundreds and hundreds hundreds a 240 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,440 month and we need to find them all and get 241 00:14:42,559 --> 00:14:45,600 rid of them, and also their launchers. But it's also 242 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:50,360 the drones. They're cheap to make and it's very hard 243 00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:53,360 to defend against them. So as far as the war itself, 244 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:59,279 let's start off with the rama. Manual Rama is not 245 00:14:59,559 --> 00:15:03,759 a fit actually running for president, but he's testing the water, 246 00:15:03,879 --> 00:15:07,159 there's no question about it. Let's hear what Ram Emmanuel 247 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,240 has to say about prosecuting the war. 248 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,159 Speaker 8: I mean, you have two factors, both the price of 249 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,679 oil and the market declining, and it's basically the equivalent 250 00:15:15,759 --> 00:15:19,080 of a twenty four twenty four second shot clock on 251 00:15:19,159 --> 00:15:22,120 the White House. It's going to be impacting, especially with 252 00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:25,759 the fact that the president starts down on the economy. 253 00:15:25,759 --> 00:15:28,559 Trust by people they're seeing him divert all his energy 254 00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:31,879 on international affairs, not taking care of the knitting close 255 00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:35,200 to home, and the energy prices. If you know, he 256 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,799 promised as a candidate, inflation will come down, jobs will 257 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,919 go up. Now we know inflation is up and jobs 258 00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:44,159 are down, so it's going to impact the support he has. 259 00:15:44,559 --> 00:15:51,120 And Republican performance since November election has been abysmo compared 260 00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:54,559 to energy in the Democratic Party. So they will say no. 261 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,399 But trust me, people out of the not only out 262 00:15:57,399 --> 00:15:59,279 of the corner of their eye, out of the right eye, 263 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,080 are watching that and it's not good. 264 00:16:01,639 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: So he makes a good point. And of course he's 265 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,399 a politician, and of course he's a Democrat, so he 266 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,200 is going to say. This is going to make it 267 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,360 bad for the president. We'll see. It's way too early 268 00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:16,279 to tell, but oil prices are up, Energy prices are up, 269 00:16:16,679 --> 00:16:20,480 inflation therefore will be up. The stock market is down, 270 00:16:21,039 --> 00:16:23,399 and so all those things are right. But it's again, 271 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,080 it's March ninth. It's not people will make up their 272 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,919 mind about the political part of this. I think late summer, 273 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,080 early fall, so there's still a lot of road to 274 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,080 travel before we get there. But I think for Republicans 275 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,480 they've got to be nervous about this. 276 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:39,799 Speaker 5: This is. 277 00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:46,639 Speaker 1: On the overall basis, Republicans are in general in favor 278 00:16:46,799 --> 00:16:49,840 of this war. Democrats are not. But when you add 279 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,480 it all together, it's basically a fifty to fifty deal. 280 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,039 Fifty percent are supporting the president, fifty percent are not. 281 00:16:56,919 --> 00:17:01,639 But there's no question oil prices are up and in 282 00:17:01,799 --> 00:17:04,400 stock market down. And with the oil prices up, you 283 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,960 know that well, people were complaining before about the cost 284 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:13,079 of things when oil prices and gas prices were down substantially. 285 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,599 Other things were up, but oil and gas were down, 286 00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:22,599 not anymore. So what do we do about trying to 287 00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:26,440 get rid of these missiles and also defend ourselves against 288 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:31,839 the drones. Admiral Harward is expert in this area. Let's 289 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,119 hear what the admiral has to say. 290 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 3: I think it's exactly what Secretary of Rubio just said. 291 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,160 It's about the missiles and the navy. We've taken out 292 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,680 the navy, now it's the missiles. Once we shut down 293 00:17:44,759 --> 00:17:48,519 those missiles and can move shifts safely through the straits 294 00:17:48,519 --> 00:17:51,839 of a moves, then we have no issues. We have 295 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,559 time on our hand. We can take our time to 296 00:17:54,759 --> 00:17:57,880 sure there's a transition of the regime. We can take 297 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,839 time to put in inspectors to make sure all the 298 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,359 apparatus of the nuclear programs are gone. We can put 299 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,200 inspectors to make sure the missile inventories have been depleted. 300 00:18:08,279 --> 00:18:11,680 So let's focus on what needs to be done first. 301 00:18:12,039 --> 00:18:15,920 Deal with the missile threats. That challenge the straits of HomeOS, 302 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:21,559 challenge the GCC partners. Once that's solved, once that's eradicated, 303 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,480 we can do whatever we want and time becomes less 304 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,200 relevant to the equation. 305 00:18:26,799 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: So who knows. Everybody is impatient. They want that to 306 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:32,759 be done by yesterday, But that's what we're doing. We're 307 00:18:32,799 --> 00:18:35,640 going through and getting rid of their ballistic missiles. The 308 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:40,359 problem becomes again trying to defend against this new kind 309 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,680 of war, defending yourself against drones. 310 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're exactly right. It demonstrates how drone technology has changed. 311 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,839 They're much cheaper, easier to produce than missiles, and they're 312 00:18:51,839 --> 00:18:55,319 cranking them out and so they're using them at mass 313 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,519 So to address that, you've got to go after the 314 00:18:57,559 --> 00:19:02,000 production facilities. You got to go insportation, so address the drones. 315 00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:04,799 So I think that's the last part of the equation 316 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,599 aside from the missiles. But if you can produce a 317 00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:11,240 drone for tens of thousands of dollars as opposed to 318 00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:15,480 hundreds of thousands and not millions for cruise missiles, you've 319 00:19:15,559 --> 00:19:18,680 changed the equation. So that's what you're seeing in this conflict, 320 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,480 the real evolution, the third wave of drone warfare. 321 00:19:22,839 --> 00:19:26,799 Speaker 1: It's new and the Iranians know how to do it, 322 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,039 probably better than anybody else. They make a lot of 323 00:19:29,039 --> 00:19:33,799 the drones for Russia in their campaign against Ukraine. They're 324 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,440 very good at what they do. Regarding that, the question 325 00:19:36,559 --> 00:19:38,640 is where are they and how can we get to 326 00:19:38,759 --> 00:19:42,440 the production of them to make them stop making more drones. 327 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,400 General Jack Keene always I'm interested in what he sees 328 00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:51,240 and what's he think about the fact that they've elected 329 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,599 the son of the Ayatola asked, what do they call them? 330 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:57,559 Supreme leader? 331 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I don't think we should be surprised, you know, 332 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,400 at all. It wasn't a question of who they selected. 333 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,480 We knew that what they were going to do is 334 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,039 preserve this regime. That the elites who are running the country, 335 00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:11,480 they have one thing on their mind, and that's to 336 00:20:11,519 --> 00:20:13,920 stay in power and preserve the regime, and a lot 337 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,039 of that has to do with their own personal survival. 338 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,039 They also recognize that if there is a transition here, 339 00:20:20,039 --> 00:20:22,599 they're likely going to be killed, killed by who, by 340 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,519 their own people. That's the reality that they're facing. So 341 00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:28,839 they're digging their heels in here who have But certainly 342 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,359 his son, he's got a personal mistake in this. We 343 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,400 mentioned that his family has been likely killed, most of 344 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,440 them by the strike that took down his father. But 345 00:20:38,559 --> 00:20:40,839 he is an eealog. I mean, he's a hard liner 346 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,440 for sure. He's repressed the people in Ron for years 347 00:20:45,519 --> 00:20:48,720 himself as a member of the IRGC, So he stands 348 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,519 for everything that his father stood for. He and that 349 00:20:51,559 --> 00:20:55,519 regime has got to go. Remember, so our audience understands 350 00:20:55,519 --> 00:20:58,960 this is a condition based operation. We're taking all of 351 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,359 their weapons away from them that they have and their 352 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,960 nuclear capability, and we're taking away their future weapons in 353 00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:09,359 terms of manufacturing firms and others that are making the 354 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,720 weapons of war that they use obviously outside the region, 355 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,640 outside their country, but also on their own people. And 356 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:18,599 then the other thing that the Israeli is a folction 357 00:21:19,079 --> 00:21:22,279 on which is so important, is to take down all 358 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:26,400 of the organizations that literally sustain this regime, and that 359 00:21:26,559 --> 00:21:30,759 is a systematic, deliberate process will take some time to 360 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,359 achieve those end states. The IRGC just takes that as 361 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,880 an example based in Tehran, and they have been hit 362 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:42,039 rather significantly. They have outreachings thirty two other locations spread 363 00:21:42,079 --> 00:21:45,759 around the country and it's those locations that are repressing 364 00:21:45,799 --> 00:21:49,480 the people when they came out in those massive formations. 365 00:21:49,799 --> 00:21:53,920 The militia and also the police infrastructure are on this 366 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,839 list for the same reasons. If we want, and we 367 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,759 do a civilian uprise that could potentially lead to a 368 00:22:01,839 --> 00:22:05,000 revolution and a change of government, we have got to 369 00:22:05,039 --> 00:22:09,200 take down those organizations that sustain this regime, and that 370 00:22:09,319 --> 00:22:12,319 will take some time and some patients to let this 371 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,720 operation get to this culminating point. Based on the conditions 372 00:22:17,079 --> 00:22:20,480 that the military is achieving and their goals and objectives. 373 00:22:20,319 --> 00:22:23,519 Speaker 1: So I would assume that the military has the son 374 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,720 of the Ayatola, the new Supreme leader, on the target list. 375 00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:30,359 I mean, he's got to be number one. 376 00:22:30,519 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 4: He's been on a target list, and certainly if there 377 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,960 is a priority on the list, he's likely at the 378 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,400 top of it. Yeah, I mean, all of these leaders 379 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,599 are on a target list and they know that, but 380 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,759 it's all of them. Even if we were able to 381 00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:51,160 take him down, they still want to stay in power. 382 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,279 They're going to hold on and that's the reality when 383 00:22:54,279 --> 00:22:56,920 they lose everything else, when they lose the organizations that 384 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,440 are supporting them. And we see cracks in that the 385 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,839 feedback that our intelligence services are getting that there are 386 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,880 cracks in the leadership. There is divisiveness that's developing in 387 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,920 and among the elites. There's morale problems in the security forces, 388 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,279 and no wonder, I mean, they see what's happening around them. 389 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,759 You know that the people, they know, the organizations they've 390 00:23:17,799 --> 00:23:20,240 been a part of it for years, and the weapon 391 00:23:20,319 --> 00:23:24,640 system they've employed offensively, all of that is being destroyed. 392 00:23:25,279 --> 00:23:27,880 So it's not surprising that some of that is beginning 393 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,319 to come unravel. And it's not at the point where 394 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,680 it's where we're at a point of collapse. But the 395 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:38,640 operation that the Israelis conducted is fundamentally designed to set 396 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,200 the conditions for a regime collapse, and that's a measured 397 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,680 approach to achieve that end. 398 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: So we wait, we try to be patient to see 399 00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:49,799 if we're going to be able to achieve that in 400 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:56,160 the near future, we domestically here in the US. Here 401 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,240 in New York City over the weekend on Saturday, was 402 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:05,880 a protest, which is not uncommon, right outside of Gracy Mansion. 403 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,559 Gracy Mansion is the home of the New York City Mayor. 404 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,640 So Mayor ma'am Donnie lives in Gracie Mansion with his family, 405 00:24:15,279 --> 00:24:21,920 and there was a protest nearby that was interrupted by 406 00:24:22,319 --> 00:24:27,880 two young guys eighteen and nineteen years old who both 407 00:24:28,519 --> 00:24:35,319 had created IEDs and threw them into the crowd. If 408 00:24:35,319 --> 00:24:39,440 you talk to anybody that has ever served in Afghanistan 409 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:46,119 or Iraq, the IEDs blew up tanks. I mean, these 410 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:51,079 things are powerful and there would have been mass casualties. 411 00:24:51,839 --> 00:24:56,079 But once again, these young guys did not get the 412 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,240 formula right. And we've lucked out a few times in 413 00:24:59,279 --> 00:25:03,599 the past where or some terrorist wants to create lots 414 00:25:03,599 --> 00:25:07,079 of death and destruction and yet they're bombs fizzle. Well, 415 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,640 these two IEDs did not go off, but just by 416 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:16,319 the grace of God. Let's start with Mayor ma'm Donnie, 417 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:21,519 who was all of a sudden very thankful for everybody 418 00:25:21,559 --> 00:25:25,799 in the NYPD for basically saving him and his family. 419 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:31,039 Speaker 5: Two men, Amir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, traveled from Pennsylvania 420 00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:34,519 and attempted to bring violence to New York City. They 421 00:25:34,519 --> 00:25:37,799 are suspected of coming here to commit an act of terrorism. 422 00:25:38,519 --> 00:25:41,440 There is video of these two individuals throwing two devices 423 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,920 towards the protest. The police department has determined that these 424 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:49,799 were improvised explosive devices made to injure, maim or worse. 425 00:25:50,759 --> 00:25:53,839 Thanks to the swift and decisive actions of NYPD officers 426 00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:58,000 at the scene, both men were immediately taken into custody 427 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,440 and the devices they brought take off of our streets. 428 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,759 I want to commend the officers who were on site. 429 00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:08,960 They faced a chaotic situation that very quickly could have 430 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,519 become far more dangerous. NYPD Chief Aaron Edwards and Sergeant 431 00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:17,279 Luis Navarro ran towards the danger so that others could 432 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,160 run to safety. They're here with us now, and I 433 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,559 want to thank them today publicly as I did yesterday privately, 434 00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:26,680 and to thank the dozens of other officers who responded. 435 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:31,079 Without hesitation, there would have been many police officers killed 436 00:26:31,079 --> 00:26:34,079 and a large number of people in the crowd, maybe 437 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:39,160 in the buildings nearby. It's a residential area. I mean 438 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,559 there's a park around the Governor's I'm sorry, the Mayor's mansion, 439 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,720 but there's also a lot of apartment buildings right across 440 00:26:46,759 --> 00:26:50,240 the street and so forth. Jessica Tish, who's the commissioner 441 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,319 of the NYPD, had this to say. 442 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,319 Speaker 9: First, I will tell you that we are not at 443 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,359 liberty to discuss many aspects of the ongoing investigation at 444 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:03,000 this time due to the pending prosecution. The suspects here, 445 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,880 Amer Blat and Ibrahim Kayumi are going to be prosecuted 446 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,599 in federal court here in Manhattan, and a complaint will 447 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:14,680 set forth criminal charges and the factual allegations supporting those charges. 448 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,240 After that complaint is made public, which I expect to 449 00:27:19,319 --> 00:27:22,160 occur later today, I will be able to say much 450 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,599 more about the investigation and what we have learned in 451 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,880 this case, but it is crucial that we respect that 452 00:27:29,039 --> 00:27:32,799 process and not get ahead of it. That being said, 453 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,480 I can confirm that I can confirm this morning that 454 00:27:36,559 --> 00:27:41,640 this is being investigated as an act of ISIS inspired terrorism. 455 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,160 I can also provide some additional information, building on my 456 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:49,079 remarks from Saturday evening. At that time, we were beginning 457 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:53,000 to conduct preliminary analysis of two devices that were ignited 458 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,759 and deployed earlier that day, one in a crossroad walk 459 00:27:56,799 --> 00:27:59,519 on East End Avenue and East eighty seventh Street, and 460 00:27:59,599 --> 00:28:02,119 the other on the west side of East End Avenue 461 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,759 between East eighty six and East eighty seventh Streets. That 462 00:28:05,839 --> 00:28:11,400 testing was performed by the NYPD's Bomb Squad and FBI 463 00:28:11,559 --> 00:28:16,359 Special Agent bomb technicians in consultation with an FBI chemist. 464 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,759 Preliminary test results determined that these were not hoax devices 465 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,759 nor smoke bombs. They were improvised explosive devices that could 466 00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:29,400 have caused serious injury or death. Part of our initial 467 00:28:29,759 --> 00:28:35,200 investigation was to determine what energetic substance, if any, was 468 00:28:35,319 --> 00:28:38,720 used in the two devices, and our analysis showed that 469 00:28:38,799 --> 00:28:42,359 one of the devices deployed by the subjects contained the 470 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:49,160 substance triacetone triperoxide known as TATP. Now TATP is a 471 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:53,640 dangerous and highly volatile homemade explosive that has been used 472 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,559 in ied attacks around the world. Our bomb Squad then 473 00:28:57,799 --> 00:29:02,759 rendered safe both devices is and as of now, explosive 474 00:29:02,799 --> 00:29:06,400 evidence samples are being sent to an FBI lab for 475 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:11,039 further testing. Our investigation also led our detectives to a 476 00:29:11,119 --> 00:29:14,839 vehicle that was tied to the suspects, and yesterday afternoon, 477 00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:19,839 patrol officers found that car, a black twenty ten Honda 478 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,160 with New Jersey plates, on East End Avenue between East 479 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,880 eighty first Street and East eighty second Street. Using a robot, 480 00:29:27,359 --> 00:29:31,200 the NYPD's bomb Squad was able to find another possible 481 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:36,160 suspicious device and materials inside the car consistent with the 482 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,960 first two explosive devices, and the area was immediately frozen 483 00:29:41,079 --> 00:29:45,799 and cleared. A limited evacuation of certain floors and certain 484 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,519 nearby buildings was conducted while the officers secured the vehicle 485 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:54,160 and removed this third device, which was transported to Rodman's 486 00:29:54,279 --> 00:29:59,279 Neck for further testing. This third device tested negative for 487 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,480 explosive material. Once the scene was secure and deemed safe, 488 00:30:03,559 --> 00:30:06,400 residents were allowed to return to their homes. 489 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:07,319 Speaker 1: Now. 490 00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:09,119 Speaker 9: We have been in a heightened state of alert in 491 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,319 New York City since the start of hostilities in Iran, 492 00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:14,200 and we remain in. 493 00:30:14,079 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 3: That posture today. 494 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,279 Speaker 9: We will continue to deploy additional counter terrorism resources throughout 495 00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:23,400 New York City, including heavy weapons teams, K nine units, 496 00:30:23,519 --> 00:30:28,599 aviation and more. The NYPD is vigilant and determined in 497 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,880 our unceasing efforts to ensure the safety of the city 498 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,640 and the security of its eight and a half million residents. 499 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: So essentially it was a close call, and the fact 500 00:30:38,759 --> 00:30:42,319 that they didn't make the iedes properly that the TATP. 501 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,240 Let me get this. This is one of the NYPD 502 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,720 experts on what THATP is all about. 503 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 10: As the Commissioner mentioned, TATP is highly dangerous and extremely volatile, 504 00:30:56,759 --> 00:31:01,880 and the NYPD and FBI bomb Squad ODDS bomb technicians 505 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:06,720 did do controlled detonations of the two IEDs from the protest, 506 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,720 which revealed a significant explosion. It's really important to note 507 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:17,160 that had these IEDs functioned the way the perpetrators allegedly 508 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,559 wanted them to, they could have caused death, destruction, extremely 509 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,039 dangerous compound, an extremely dangerous place deployed. 510 00:31:26,279 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: Like I said, these IEDs, these are the kinds of 511 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,799 things that would blow up tanks in I Rock and Afghanistans. 512 00:31:32,799 --> 00:31:38,079 They are very, very powerful. James Gagliano, former FBI weighed 513 00:31:38,079 --> 00:31:38,599 in with. 514 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,119 Speaker 11: This, Yeah, just chilling details that were just laid out 515 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,920 by the police commissioner down at one police Plaza, and 516 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,400 I got to tell you this is chilling. 517 00:31:48,119 --> 00:31:49,079 Speaker 7: For number of reasons. 518 00:31:49,119 --> 00:31:51,839 Speaker 11: First of all, they were charged. The top charge was 519 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:56,200 providing material support to Isis. Now we always talk about 520 00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:00,519 whether or not somebody was directed or inspired. These look 521 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,599 like young men, disaffected, disenchanted, that decided to do something 522 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,759 like this and picked a target, which is New York City, 523 00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:11,319 the number one terrorist target in the world, and use 524 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:17,200 what's called THATP or triacetone triperoxide. Now, what is that? 525 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,799 That is not something that you can buy over the counter. 526 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,319 Now you can buy the precursor chemicals, but once you 527 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,240 put this together, it's exceedingly unstable. And the fact that 528 00:32:27,279 --> 00:32:29,480 they tried to light it, they tried to detonate it, 529 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,880 and that nobody was killed is a miracle. And lastly, 530 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,920 I'll close with this, this instance right here was the 531 00:32:36,039 --> 00:32:40,119 NYPD acting on instincts and acting on their training. You 532 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,119 had senior level officials jumping over stanchions in barricades and 533 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,279 chasing these people down. An incredible act of heroism all 534 00:32:48,319 --> 00:32:48,880 their parts. 535 00:32:49,359 --> 00:32:52,279 Speaker 1: Now, they had the usual brass out there, they were 536 00:32:52,319 --> 00:32:57,640 standing around talking with obviously a lot more regular street 537 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,799 cop from the NYPD. But yeah, there was a sergeant 538 00:33:01,799 --> 00:33:04,720 and a lieutenant jumping over stanchions they chase these guys down, 539 00:33:04,839 --> 00:33:10,440 we tackled them, arrested them. Craig Goudie, former federal prosecutor, 540 00:33:10,799 --> 00:33:11,759 former congressman. 541 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,759 Speaker 12: Yeah, it also highlights kind of a weakness in our system, 542 00:33:14,799 --> 00:33:17,480 if you will. I'd be curious what Professor or Hugh 543 00:33:17,559 --> 00:33:22,240 thinks about it. But prosecutors are really good after the fact, 544 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,000 after something bad happens. I mean, you don't want to 545 00:33:26,119 --> 00:33:29,799 have a great success record as a homicide prosecutor because 546 00:33:29,839 --> 00:33:32,039 it means you got a big sack of bodies. But 547 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,440 the last question you heard of the press conference is 548 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,680 and this how do you prevent it? Well, we got 549 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,200 in debate going on right now when Congress about how 550 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,799 to prevent it. And you've got members of the House 551 00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:47,160 and Senate that want probable calls, warrant level for our 552 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,599 foreign surveillance. How in the world do you expect cops 553 00:33:50,839 --> 00:33:54,000 to stop a car that is coming into a major 554 00:33:54,039 --> 00:33:57,519 city like New York unless you have surveillance programs. If 555 00:33:57,559 --> 00:33:59,640 you're going to require a warrant, which by the way, 556 00:33:59,759 --> 00:34:01,319 is what you need to indict. 557 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,279 Speaker 3: If you're going to require. 558 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 13: That, then then we're going to continue to be a 559 00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:10,559 reactive criminal justice system. I think most people don't want 560 00:34:10,599 --> 00:34:12,800 the crime to take place, They want to stop it 561 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,639 ahead of time. If that's true, then then I don't 562 00:34:16,639 --> 00:34:18,719 want to hear any more about a warrant requirement for 563 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,320 our foreigns availlance programs. 564 00:34:20,519 --> 00:34:23,159 Speaker 1: But these two guys, even though they have foreign names, 565 00:34:23,559 --> 00:34:29,880 are not foreigners. They're from Pennsylvania. They're from just outside Philadelphia. 566 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,440 John You, former assistant Attorney General and a law professor, 567 00:34:34,599 --> 00:34:37,960 and from Philadelphia at this descent. 568 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 3: Excellent point. 569 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,280 Speaker 14: We should be grateful for the police and the FBI 570 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,480 who came in to stop it. But as Trey said, 571 00:34:44,679 --> 00:34:47,920 the criminal justice system is reactive. It comes in after 572 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,760 the harm has occurred. If you want to address what 573 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,119 Sandra said, you want to address what the reporter they're asked, 574 00:34:53,119 --> 00:34:55,320 how do you stop it from happening. You're not going 575 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,960 to be able in an open society like ours to 576 00:34:58,079 --> 00:35:01,079 shut down the movement of people, to shut down communications, 577 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,440 so that is impossible. The only way, and we learned 578 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,679 this after nine to eleven, the only way to stop 579 00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:09,199 future terrorist attacks on our homeland is to go to 580 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,599 the source and take preventive action in Iran, to take 581 00:35:12,679 --> 00:35:15,679 preventive action in the Middle East, where these terrorist groups 582 00:35:15,679 --> 00:35:17,920 are forming where they're trying to send people here, where 583 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,760 they're trying to radicalize. The Iran war is going to 584 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,360 create the circumstances where a foreign government is going to 585 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,039 try to stoke more of these attacks. The best way 586 00:35:27,079 --> 00:35:30,000 to stop this from happening is finishing off the Iranian 587 00:35:30,039 --> 00:35:33,199 government and the Iranian military forces and remembering where war 588 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,440 with these terrorist groups we should not be. As Trey 589 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,920 said in a reactive after the fact posture, after a 590 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,840 bomb has gone off, we want to break up their networks, 591 00:35:42,159 --> 00:35:45,880 intercept their communications, and stop the attacks before they happen. 592 00:35:46,039 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 1: So, as I'm recording this podcast, I'm watching a live 593 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:56,320 coverage of an anti US pro Iran demonstration going on 594 00:35:56,639 --> 00:36:01,320 in San Francisco. So it's we came really close over 595 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,280 the weekend in New York. But I would say heads 596 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,159 up out there, folks, because it's not limited to just 597 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,400 New York City. Last word on this from Paul Morrow, 598 00:36:10,519 --> 00:36:15,960 former NYPD. Actually he ran the Counterintelligence Department. Here's Paul. 599 00:36:16,039 --> 00:36:18,119 Speaker 15: They went on this would have been very very serious. 600 00:36:18,119 --> 00:36:21,280 First of all, TATP has been the explosive of choice 601 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,760 for a while now for serious GIHATTI groups. The whole 602 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:29,159 Pantheon isis al KaiA to Taliban. You've got incidents like 603 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,840 the Ariana Grande bombing outside the Manchester Arena well into 604 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,760 double figures of fatalities to London seven seven bombers, Richard 605 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,639 Reid who tried to detonate the shoes on a plane THTP. 606 00:36:41,199 --> 00:36:44,480 So the fact that this was thatp really raises the 607 00:36:44,639 --> 00:36:48,679 level of scrutiny here that relative to is there a 608 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,719 group involved or did these two manage to try to 609 00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,679 do it themselves and just got the formula wrong. As 610 00:36:54,679 --> 00:36:58,159 far as the damage goes, just consider this a bullet fight. 611 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,800 Depending on the caliber your average bullet fired, especially in 612 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,239 a street and counterhandgun or something, the bullet is going 613 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,599 to be about the size let's say a marble. After 614 00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:10,400 it's fired, imagine nuts and bolts, which are, if anything larger, 615 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,079 being dispersed into that crowd at the velocity of let's 616 00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:17,400 say a shotgun, and there are dozens of those nuts, 617 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,599 bolts and screws. All You can just imagine firing numerous 618 00:37:21,639 --> 00:37:25,079 shotgun blasts into a very dense crowd, and then that 619 00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,039 second device is actually thrown at the police officers. That 620 00:37:28,079 --> 00:37:31,400 commission at TISH is talking about this could have been horrific. So, 621 00:37:31,559 --> 00:37:33,079 as you know, I did this kind of work for 622 00:37:33,119 --> 00:37:36,400 about fifteen sixteen years post nine to eleven. And the 623 00:37:36,519 --> 00:37:39,079 thing is, as we've often talked about, the further we 624 00:37:39,079 --> 00:37:40,800 get from nine to eleven, the closer we get to 625 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,519 nine ten. Right, the general public needs to just live 626 00:37:43,559 --> 00:37:45,840 their lives and go on with it. As far as 627 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,960 police are, the closest to the ground, really have to 628 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,679 reinvigorate our efforts here. We got the question at the 629 00:37:51,679 --> 00:37:55,840 press conference about cyber was there any imprint online for 630 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,559 these guys. Well, look, there's a couple of indicators here 631 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,440 to travel, and I'm reminded of of our cases like 632 00:38:02,599 --> 00:38:04,920 Nigi Bulazazi who wanted to bomb in the New York 633 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,840 City subway, had traveled to Pakistan, got the training, got 634 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,840 a situation like the Times Square bomb that didn't detonate 635 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,840 in the car, same thing, all right, Virzal Shazzaid had 636 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,000 gone to the f PAC region, got the training, came back. 637 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,199 Everybody that travels is not going to be a suspect. 638 00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,960 That's not our system. But what you really got to 639 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,800 do is to investigate this case is not only look 640 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,760 into the suspects, not only look at how they got 641 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,239 the devices, how they were able to put it together, etc. 642 00:38:33,039 --> 00:38:36,800 Do they have a foreign terrorist organization footprint connection? 643 00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:37,559 Speaker 13: Is it? 644 00:38:37,639 --> 00:38:39,639 Speaker 15: In response to Iran? You're going to look at their comms, 645 00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:42,800 their computers, their phones, but you also have to look 646 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,639 at yourself. You have to do a real forensic on 647 00:38:47,039 --> 00:38:50,000 where the point of failure was, if any here. You're 648 00:38:50,039 --> 00:38:52,039 not going to stop everything. The truth of the matter 649 00:38:52,159 --> 00:38:55,039 is intelligence is not a zero sum game and they 650 00:38:55,039 --> 00:38:57,239 only have to be right. Like you said, and we 651 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,639 got very lucky in this particular incident. You got to 652 00:39:00,679 --> 00:39:05,440 make a very very hard effort, an uncompromising effort, to 653 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,039 look at yourself and your people to say could we 654 00:39:08,119 --> 00:39:08,679 have stopped this? 655 00:39:09,039 --> 00:39:11,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's talking to police there and saying, police departments, 656 00:39:11,639 --> 00:39:14,400 do you think you could have stopped this? That's the 657 00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:18,599 ultimate question. So a lot of heavyweight stuff. Let's get 658 00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:22,239 let's finish up the podcast today with a much, much, 659 00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:28,760 much much lighter story. Usually every year I ran and 660 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:34,199 complain about switching time. I can't stand it, just leave 661 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,320 it alone. Well I found somebody else that can do 662 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,920 the complaining for me. This year, here's Harrietton. Look, people 663 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,960 are perturbed at this idea. We do not like this 664 00:39:44,119 --> 00:39:46,400 idea of losing an hour of sleep. We do not 665 00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,840 like this idea of jumping forward. And we've seen that 666 00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,760 in the polling data. What we see is that the 667 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:56,360 majority of people do not do not do not want. 668 00:39:56,159 --> 00:39:58,199 Speaker 16: To spring forward. Look at this stop chaining the clocks 669 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:02,159 twice here, sixty four percent of Americans say yes, we 670 00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:05,000 favor the idea of stopping the madness. 671 00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, for stopping the change, stop changing the clock on it. 672 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:08,960 Speaker 4: Yeah. 673 00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,599 Speaker 16: I mean this is the issue, right, Okay, So if 674 00:40:11,639 --> 00:40:13,440 we're going to have this whole idea of we're going 675 00:40:13,519 --> 00:40:17,559 to actually you know, change and stop changing the clocks, well, 676 00:40:17,599 --> 00:40:20,880 what the heck are we actually going to do about it? 677 00:40:21,159 --> 00:40:24,639 And Americans on this particular topic seem to be dare 678 00:40:24,679 --> 00:40:28,559 I say, quite confused when it comes to actually doing 679 00:40:28,599 --> 00:40:30,519 something about it. So if we look at the polling, 680 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,440 what we would see is something that is not aligned 681 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,840 with this, which is all standard time all the What 682 00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,440 we see is the sunrise pre seven thirty am and 683 00:40:40,519 --> 00:40:43,639 sunset post five thirty pm seventy two percent of the year. 684 00:40:43,639 --> 00:40:46,159 If you want that the national average seventy two percent, 685 00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:50,119 you actually want all standard time compared to this idea 686 00:40:50,159 --> 00:40:52,119 of daylight saving. Hey, this is where we get the 687 00:40:52,119 --> 00:40:54,719 most the most sunlight. In fact, that is the least 688 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:56,920 the least sunset of the year. You just get sixty 689 00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,360 percent where you would get the pre seven thirty am. 690 00:40:59,599 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 1: So majority of people just want to leave it alone, 691 00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,679 leave it on standard time. I mean, we'd like to 692 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,079 have more sun, but just leave it on standard time. 693 00:41:07,119 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 3: Please. 694 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,400 Speaker 1: In any case, it's done for now Wall Street today. 695 00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,000 Now this is also if we're going to finish a 696 00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:19,239 podcast on a higher note, this is it. I told 697 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,280 you we started this morning the Dow. Oil prices had 698 00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:28,880 hit one hundred and nineteen dollars overnight, marked that down. Uh, 699 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,800 and then the price of when we started trading, price 700 00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,480 of oil was all the way down to one hundred 701 00:41:36,519 --> 00:41:40,199 dollars a barrel. And the Dow started at nine thirty 702 00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:45,880 Eastern time this morning down eight hundred and eighty six points. 703 00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:48,719 You ready to see where it ended? 704 00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,800 Speaker 5: I know, the Dow up. 705 00:41:53,079 --> 00:41:57,519 Speaker 1: It finished up two hundred and thirty nine points to 706 00:41:57,679 --> 00:42:00,960 forty seven thousand and seven forty. The S and P 707 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,760 was way down, it finished up fifty six. The NASTAC 708 00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,840 was way down. It finished up three hundred and eight. 709 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,119 The price of gold fell twelve dollars, done at five 710 00:42:11,679 --> 00:42:15,360 one forty six, and oil, which had been one hundred 711 00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,320 and nineteen, and then when we started trading it was 712 00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,760 at one hundred. It finished at eighty six dollars. That's 713 00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,039 done almost five bucks from where we left off on Friday, 714 00:42:25,039 --> 00:42:28,920 trading eighty six dollars for a barrel of oil. Now, 715 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,440 don't ask me to explain it. Thank you for coming by. 716 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,840 We have no I'm daylight to this. You can't explain something, well, 717 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,199 you can, but it would take hours. Thank you for 718 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,679 coming by. We're going to try this again tomorrow. I 719 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,119 hope to see you then