Speaker 1: And B that implies the end of the of the
bull market. Once you hit that blow off top, the
next big move is down. And that's neither what I want,
but also not what I see based on the fundamentals
that the money printing hasn't stopped, the central bank buying
hasn't stopped, all the reasons to be bullish on gold
are still there. So it just doesn't seem like this
is a market that's ready to peak to me. It
seems to me like a market that wants to go
higher for years to come.
Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
Network now more than.
Speaker 3: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
Carrie Letz. Our good Frick Lobo t Grade is with
us now formerly known as Louis James. But that's so
long ago, I probably shouldn't even mention that anymore. Well,
we got good news shut the thing that really affected
me two things. I've written a couple of books Lobo,
and I haven't been able to get a Library of
Congress Control number, which is an absolute must to get
your books in libraries. They won't buy them without if that,
and trying to get back from LaGuardia Airport Sunday night
turned into a half a day affair. A plane that
was supposed to leave at two twenty five left at
eight twenty five actually left about eight, but because there
were no controllers on the East coast, it had to
deviate west over Tennessee to get to Florida. It was
a three and a half hour flight. It was hell,
pure hell. So I'm happy they're back from that standpoint
because I got some flights coming up and I don't
want to know about this anymore. What's your take on
the shutdown? You know, the government that governs least is
that which governs best. They weren't governing at their least.
Speaker 1: It's it's false advertising carry they don't shut down, if
only they would, you know, I would much rather see
services revert to market forces when people realize how very
incompetent the government is for doing all these things that
even if you believed in you know, a minimal watchman
state that you know, there's so much stuff in it.
It's not in the constitution. It shouldn't be done at all.
And you know, you'd think a shutdown would be the
opportunity to clear up some of the mess. And you
remember there was talk early in the shutdown about firing.
You know, if these workers are non essential, well then
why do we have them at all? Why not just
fire them?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: But of course it's just all a circus, and they
weren't really going to do that.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: If anything, the whole doge and you know, Trump must
blow up, shows that if you really try to go
in and and cut, you know, the deep state will
fight back. It seems so, I don't you know, I wasn't.
I wasn't too worried about the shutdown. You know, record
long shutdown. Okay, air traffic delays and stuff. This is
this is really just an inconvenience. It's not like the
world stopped or the economy stopped, and we all knew
it was going to end, you know, in a compromise.
And you know until January, right, the circus starts to
get in January, So you know, long as the chaos.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, I couldn't agree with you more. It's
to me it was just like going through TSA.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Our good friend Robert Ian calls that security theater. They're
not really there to catch anybody. They're just there to
make you think that they're going to keep you safe.
But I will say one thing, like the TSA wasn't
getting paid during this called shutdown. But I raced through
the TSA line. They got this new technology. You stick
your license in a sloth, The thing takes your picture
and then you get to wait while everybody's baggage gets scanned.
Because the baggage scanning can't keep up with the approval
from the TSA agents that you check out. It's a
pure exercise in madness, the entire thing.
Speaker 1: We're heading towards a rather scary, brave new world.
Speaker 3: Carrie.
Speaker 1: The you know you talk about, you know, looking at
the machine and having it verify you that. The last
time I was in Europe, they didn't even ask for
the papers of the passport or the cards or anything.
You just walk by and the thing looks at you
and they let you on the airplane. You know the
implications of that, You know, it's always very convenient. We
could just walk on the airplane. But the implications of that,
you know my face, you know, the facial recognition, and
that tracking you everywhere, that cameras everywhere we are. I
think you could make a claim that we already live
in a surveillance state. All the needs for it to
turn into a nightmare surveillance state is for the governments
to turn even more authoritarian than they already are.
Speaker 3: That's probably coming.
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, it makes it, you know what, you know,
I don't want to get too tinfoil hat here, but
one of the reasons why I live in one of
the reasons I live in Puerto Rico isn't just the
tax breaks, which are great, but also it's so far
off the beaten path. And you know, I don't think
most people around the world even remember that Puerto Rico
is part of the United States or belongs to the
United States.
Speaker 3: Is when did they do that?
Speaker 1: We stole it from Spain, fair and square in eighteen
ninety eight. But you know, if there's an ICBM, you know,
headed for the US somewhere, you know, the mervs for
La Chicago, New York, Washington, Sure, San Juan, Puerto Rico,
probably not. So if things get really scary, really bad,
you know, I hope I'm not like that guy who
moved to where was it, watl Canal or something to
get out of the way of World War two, you know,
So I hope that I've made a wise movement. But
the other thing is, like, if things get really scary,
you can't freeze here, and you can grow stuff all
year around. So that's from a you know, worst case
scenario point of view, I'd rather have a bunker in
Puerto Rico than a bunker in Idaho where I can
freeze my posterior off in the winter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know what you mean. I know what you mean.
It's and the weather is good there, and yeah, you
do get some storms, some hurricanes.
Speaker 1: Good.
Speaker 3: Every place on the planet has some type of natural
disaster that's got its name on it.
Speaker 1: Right, pluses or minuses for every place. Yeah, I'm certainly
not saying this one was perfect. And you know, honestly,
I don't spend too much time thinking about this the
tail risk of something that bad happening. At that point,
I'm not worried about my investments anymore. I'm not worried
about balls that anything else, right, but it is you know,
we we live in a scary world. And you know
we're celebrating the shutdown of the shutdown, which was just
a circus anyway. But meanwhile we've still got putting over.
Speaker 3: There, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we are we are closer to you know,
serious bad stuff going down then we've been, I think
in decades. And I think it's the financial survival network.
But the survival parts important. And I'm not telling anybody
to you know, quit their job and head for the
hills or stuff like that. But you know what the
thing about insurance is, even if you never use it,
it's better to have it than not. And if you're
don't afford to take out a little crisis insurance that
you know, harden your assets, hardened your life against possible tailorists.
I don't think that's a tinfoil hat crazy thing to do.
Speaker 3: Well, that's why we own gold and silver, right, Well.
Speaker 1: It wasn't because silver was going to fifty three dollars today.
Were you gambling on silver going high or Kerry?
Speaker 3: Well, I gambled the fifteen years ago, well when I
bought most of my keep in my house. But you know,
I'm teasing. Of course, the bill, we always knew that
it was going to do this, right.
Speaker 1: Yes, But so the bullying. I think of his savings
as real money. It's a financial loan for which there's
no short in insurance, all that sort of thing. So
it fits into a previous conversation absolutely, no question. Bullying
is part of that. As I don't think of myself
as a gambler. I try to think of myself as
as a disciplined speculator and to speculate on gains. That's
what the stocks are for. Because if I think gold
is going op for so or copper raniing or whatever.
If I think it's going up, you know, owning the
metal or or an ETF that represents the metal is
the least leverage I can get to that upside if
I'm right. You know, I want a hockey stick, right.
So the way to do that is with the mining stocks,
and they have been delivering in spades as yet. There
was I don't want to go too far down this
rabbit hole, but it was you know, a year or
two ago people were thinking the mining stocks were broken.
Gold was up and these stocks couldn't get off the floor,
and people were wondering, well, is this the end? You know,
maybe bitcoin is eating the mining stocks lunch. Well, this
year has answered the question. No. I you know, I
think there was good reasons for people to be skeptical
of mining stocks. They more or less flubbed it in
two thousand and eight, two thousand and twelve, right, And
now that they've not, now they've had some discipline, they're
making money. I mean the producers are I was really
you know, printing cash right, you know they're mining gold
and so or they got real money, right, And oil
prices are down, so you've got lower energy prices, lower
input costs, and you've got soaring sales your revenue. So
you have to be a really crappy miner not to
be making money in the space. And by the way,
to your audience, that's a litmus test. This is not
a time to look for overlooked gems in the mining stocks.
If there's a mining stock that is not responding to
gold or silver, or gold or silver stock that's not
responding to hire gold and silver, there's something wrong in
that company exactly.
Speaker 3: You know, you hit the nail on the head, and
that's what you need to be aware of. There when
you're looking for sure, So, hey, how much higher is
it going to go? You know? Martin Armstrong said, once
the gold hits five thousand, it'll rapidly go to ten thousand. Said,
that's just the way they work when you hit those
flat numbers, you know, those big numbers, that just goes
up from there. It looked like we were going to
get sixty dollars silver very quickly. I guess it's three
weeks ago and then mysteriously what dollars? But now it's
back over fifty, which tells me the control mechanisms are
kind of becoming less effective, shall we say, if that.
Speaker 1: Was mister slammy, as we like to say on social media,
he failed, you know to it. I mean, if you
think about it, like the last fifty dollars flirtations with
silver worre like super sharp peaks, just screaming up intra
day on him down again on the other side. So
silver held above fifty before a couple of weeks ago,
I held above fifty for more than a week, and
now it's back and even higher. That that is really
different from the previous spikes. It's already more of a
plateau and not a spike and on the gold side,
I think it's really telling that, like that beach ball
that you know, they keep trying to push it under
four thousand the day you know, Gold drops under four
thousand and then come popping back up again with gusto.
That again does not suggest that blow off top, you know,
it suggests consolidation building, you know, getting ready for the
next big leg. And the last times we've seen this,
you know, Gold did it at thirty five hundred more
or less, did it at three thousand for quite a while.
Once it hit two thousand a couple of years ago.
It with volatility, traded sideways for a couple of years.
So it seems like you get a big run up, consolidate,
big run up, consolidate, And so that's what's happening right now.
We've had a big run up and it's consolidating, not
going down again. So the pattern this isn't a promise,
you know, how I cann it go? You're asking me
a crystal ball question. My magic story here.
Speaker 3: We liked on the spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, But so I'll be happy if I just
get the direction right, you know, if we had had
this conversation two weeks ago, I'd be much more cautious
right now. With each passing day, it looks like we
are seeing another one of these periods of consolidation before
another move higher. I'm much higher, I don't know, but
clearly five thousand is not so difficult from here. That's
a pretty meal toast forecast.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, And the only surprise to you and I,
I think happened back on the Great financial Crash. You know,
But I guess maybe that crash certainly shook the foundations
of the financial system, but it wasn't the final test.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was. You know, some of the smartest people
I know, people I respect the most, all thought that
that was it, Like there was no way that financial
house of cards could withstand such a shock, and yet
somehow they did, Like there's no way they could paper
that over, and they did. Makes me nervous about saying
they can't do it again. It seems like, you know, eventually,
you know, but never confused the eventual with the imminent,
as our friend Rick Rule likes to say. So, you know,
judgment day is coming, There's no question. Their only question
is when. And I cannot say that that is soon.
I'm not sure that I'm willing to say that five
and takes it straight to ten thousand. That blow off
top implies pretty scary world, Carrie, and I'd rather not
see that for some time, you know, frankly, But mister
Turkey doesn't care what I want. You know, it's going
to do whatever it's going to do. My take, for
whatever it's worth is I think we're going to see
more consolidation here, more waffling, and then we'll see more,
you know, another big leg up, but hopefully not a
parabolic you know, going vertical, because a that implies bad
things in the real world, and b that implies the
end of the of the bull market. Once you hit
that blow off top, the next big move is down
and that's neither what I want, but also not what
I see based on the fundamentals that the money printing
hasn't stopped, the central bank buying hasn't stopped, you know,
all the reasons to be bullish on gold are still there.
So it just doesn't seem like this is a market
that's ready to peak. To me. It seems to me
like a market that wants to go higher for years
to come, and if it corrects in the year term
before that then I would see that as a great
opportunity for anybody who feels like they missed the boat.
Speaker 3: Yeah, like a couple of weeks ago when over corrected
right and it was hit forty seven and then.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean think about that silver drops all the
way to forty seven. Oh my, oh me, what will
we do forty seven dollars? You know, those mines were
built to make money at fifteen eighteen dollars silver. So
the actual business that these stocks represent was fantastic, and
yet the drop off in the stocks was like they're
going broke tomorrow or something. You know, when when there's
a disconnect between price and value. This is another Doug
Casey ism, my own mentor, Doug Casey. This is one
of his main things. When price and value diverge, that's
where opportunity exists. Yeah.
Speaker 3: The thing is, I can still find deals on eBay
today to buy silver below melt.
Speaker 1: You know, I was, we were both at the New
Orleans Show just recently, and I was walking the exhibitors
hall looking at the companies, and I was hoping there'd
be one of those dealers there who would have like
bags of old junk silver, because I have I have
a pretty decent silver stack, and I have, of course
old bullion. That's how I saved my long term savings.
Speaker 3: But I don't have a lot.
Speaker 1: Of like you know, junk silver to make change if
if you ever actually had to use it in a
mad Max type scenario. You know, I'm not going to
go down and buy a loaf of bread with an
ounce of gold. I need more small change, or even
an ounce of silver would be too much at that point.
Speaker 3: We need I need a dime, a silver dime, basically
something like that. Yeah, well, hopefully we won't get to
that point. But to control they're going to have to
do a reset, right, I mean, how else are they
going to do this?
Speaker 1: Just I agree? And the world has changed. You know,
China's military problem. I remember, I remember a couple of
decades ago when China started building out it's navy, and
I thought, you know, good luck with that. It's going
to cost so much. In the US is decades ahead.
Now the Chinese Navy is larger than the US Navy.
I mean, this is a very different world. And the
bricks okay, it's just a club. It has no statutory authority,
but there is sort of maybe moral authority, if you will,
from that different world perspective. We let's put it this way.
We had a piece dividend after the fall of the
Soviet Union for decades and that led to this globalization
and it defined an economic era that is rapidly being reversed.
We are becoming a bipolar world again, maybe at more
ways than one, new hemispheres, and that D globalzation trend
is powerful and obvious, and it comes with a D
dollarization trend. So you know, the macro setting here, I
have very little doubt about where things are going. I
just cautioned people to again, you know, Rick will never
confused inevitable with the imminent. And as we were just
talking about how unbelievable it was that they kicked the
can down the road after the crash of two thousand
and eight, so you know, there could be a big kerfuffle,
market meltdown. Let's say the AI bubble pops, right, it
really takes Wall Street down. You know, you got if
you have this concentration of all this great outperformance American exceptionalism,
if it's all in seven stocks and those go into reverse,
the whole thing goes into reverse.
Speaker 3: Bad news.
Speaker 1: I would you know, bad news, scary things, opportunities would abound.
You know. The idea is bilosa on right when when
value in price diverged, that can be an absolute gift
from the market. But don't assume this means the end
is nigh right, you know, take out that insurance. Fine,
have insurance in case things get really scary, but it
you know, don't head for the bunker in Idaho until
the girth challenged lady has sung.
Speaker 3: I think we will leave it at that and just
tell us where we found you and how we connect
with you on the web below.
Speaker 1: Independent Speculator dot com. I have a free weekly digest.
You may or may not agree with everything I say,
but one thing I can publish this won't spam you
with endless daily advertisements.
Speaker 3: I hate that, all right. Well, that's a notable achievement
in and of itself. Questions comments, shoot me an email
kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. What about Oh, it's
a pleasure. We will talk to you again real soon.
Speaker 1: Next time, Carrie.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial survival Network now more than
ever