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Speaker 1: And B that implies the end of the of the

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bull market. Once you hit that blow off top, the

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next big move is down. And that's neither what I want,

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but also not what I see based on the fundamentals

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that the money printing hasn't stopped, the central bank buying

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hasn't stopped, all the reasons to be bullish on gold

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are still there. So it just doesn't seem like this

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is a market that's ready to peak to me. It

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seems to me like a market that wants to go

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higher for years to come.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than.

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Speaker 3: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carrie Letz. Our good Frick Lobo t Grade is with

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us now formerly known as Louis James. But that's so

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long ago, I probably shouldn't even mention that anymore. Well,

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we got good news shut the thing that really affected

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me two things. I've written a couple of books Lobo,

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and I haven't been able to get a Library of

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Congress Control number, which is an absolute must to get

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your books in libraries. They won't buy them without if that,

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and trying to get back from LaGuardia Airport Sunday night

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turned into a half a day affair. A plane that

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was supposed to leave at two twenty five left at

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eight twenty five actually left about eight, but because there

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were no controllers on the East coast, it had to

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deviate west over Tennessee to get to Florida. It was

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a three and a half hour flight. It was hell,

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pure hell. So I'm happy they're back from that standpoint

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because I got some flights coming up and I don't

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want to know about this anymore. What's your take on

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the shutdown? You know, the government that governs least is

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that which governs best. They weren't governing at their least.

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Speaker 1: It's it's false advertising carry they don't shut down, if

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only they would, you know, I would much rather see

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services revert to market forces when people realize how very

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incompetent the government is for doing all these things that

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even if you believed in you know, a minimal watchman

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state that you know, there's so much stuff in it.

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It's not in the constitution. It shouldn't be done at all.

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And you know, you'd think a shutdown would be the

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opportunity to clear up some of the mess. And you

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remember there was talk early in the shutdown about firing.

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You know, if these workers are non essential, well then

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why do we have them at all? Why not just

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fire them?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: But of course it's just all a circus, and they

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weren't really going to do that.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: If anything, the whole doge and you know, Trump must

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blow up, shows that if you really try to go

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in and and cut, you know, the deep state will

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fight back. It seems so, I don't you know, I wasn't.

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I wasn't too worried about the shutdown. You know, record

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long shutdown. Okay, air traffic delays and stuff. This is

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this is really just an inconvenience. It's not like the

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world stopped or the economy stopped, and we all knew

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it was going to end, you know, in a compromise.

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And you know until January, right, the circus starts to

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get in January, So you know, long as the chaos.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, I couldn't agree with you more. It's

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to me it was just like going through TSA.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: Our good friend Robert Ian calls that security theater. They're

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not really there to catch anybody. They're just there to

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make you think that they're going to keep you safe.

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But I will say one thing, like the TSA wasn't

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getting paid during this called shutdown. But I raced through

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the TSA line. They got this new technology. You stick

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your license in a sloth, The thing takes your picture

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and then you get to wait while everybody's baggage gets scanned.

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Because the baggage scanning can't keep up with the approval

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from the TSA agents that you check out. It's a

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pure exercise in madness, the entire thing.

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Speaker 1: We're heading towards a rather scary, brave new world.

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Speaker 3: Carrie.

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Speaker 1: The you know you talk about, you know, looking at

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the machine and having it verify you that. The last

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time I was in Europe, they didn't even ask for

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the papers of the passport or the cards or anything.

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You just walk by and the thing looks at you

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and they let you on the airplane. You know the

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implications of that, You know, it's always very convenient. We

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could just walk on the airplane. But the implications of that,

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you know my face, you know, the facial recognition, and

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that tracking you everywhere, that cameras everywhere we are. I

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think you could make a claim that we already live

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in a surveillance state. All the needs for it to

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turn into a nightmare surveillance state is for the governments

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to turn even more authoritarian than they already are.

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Speaker 3: That's probably coming.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, it makes it, you know what, you know,

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I don't want to get too tinfoil hat here, but

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one of the reasons why I live in one of

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the reasons I live in Puerto Rico isn't just the

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tax breaks, which are great, but also it's so far

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off the beaten path. And you know, I don't think

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most people around the world even remember that Puerto Rico

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is part of the United States or belongs to the

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United States.

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Speaker 3: Is when did they do that?

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Speaker 1: We stole it from Spain, fair and square in eighteen

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ninety eight. But you know, if there's an ICBM, you know,

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headed for the US somewhere, you know, the mervs for

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La Chicago, New York, Washington, Sure, San Juan, Puerto Rico,

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probably not. So if things get really scary, really bad,

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you know, I hope I'm not like that guy who

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moved to where was it, watl Canal or something to

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get out of the way of World War two, you know,

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So I hope that I've made a wise movement. But

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the other thing is, like, if things get really scary,

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you can't freeze here, and you can grow stuff all

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year around. So that's from a you know, worst case

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scenario point of view, I'd rather have a bunker in

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Puerto Rico than a bunker in Idaho where I can

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freeze my posterior off in the winter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I know what you mean. I know what you mean.

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It's and the weather is good there, and yeah, you

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do get some storms, some hurricanes.

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Speaker 1: Good.

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Speaker 3: Every place on the planet has some type of natural

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disaster that's got its name on it.

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Speaker 1: Right, pluses or minuses for every place. Yeah, I'm certainly

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not saying this one was perfect. And you know, honestly,

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I don't spend too much time thinking about this the

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tail risk of something that bad happening. At that point,

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I'm not worried about my investments anymore. I'm not worried

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about balls that anything else, right, but it is you know,

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we we live in a scary world. And you know

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we're celebrating the shutdown of the shutdown, which was just

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a circus anyway. But meanwhile we've still got putting over.

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Speaker 3: There, you know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we are we are closer to you know,

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serious bad stuff going down then we've been, I think

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in decades. And I think it's the financial survival network.

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But the survival parts important. And I'm not telling anybody

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to you know, quit their job and head for the

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hills or stuff like that. But you know what the

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thing about insurance is, even if you never use it,

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it's better to have it than not. And if you're

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don't afford to take out a little crisis insurance that

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you know, harden your assets, hardened your life against possible tailorists.

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I don't think that's a tinfoil hat crazy thing to do.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's why we own gold and silver, right, Well.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't because silver was going to fifty three dollars today.

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Were you gambling on silver going high or Kerry?

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Speaker 3: Well, I gambled the fifteen years ago, well when I

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bought most of my keep in my house. But you know,

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I'm teasing. Of course, the bill, we always knew that

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it was going to do this, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, But so the bullying. I think of his savings

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as real money. It's a financial loan for which there's

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no short in insurance, all that sort of thing. So

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it fits into a previous conversation absolutely, no question. Bullying

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is part of that. As I don't think of myself

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as a gambler. I try to think of myself as

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as a disciplined speculator and to speculate on gains. That's

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what the stocks are for. Because if I think gold

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is going op for so or copper raniing or whatever.

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If I think it's going up, you know, owning the

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metal or or an ETF that represents the metal is

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the least leverage I can get to that upside if

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I'm right. You know, I want a hockey stick, right.

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So the way to do that is with the mining stocks,

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and they have been delivering in spades as yet. There

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was I don't want to go too far down this

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rabbit hole, but it was you know, a year or

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two ago people were thinking the mining stocks were broken.

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Gold was up and these stocks couldn't get off the floor,

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and people were wondering, well, is this the end? You know,

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maybe bitcoin is eating the mining stocks lunch. Well, this

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year has answered the question. No. I you know, I

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think there was good reasons for people to be skeptical

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of mining stocks. They more or less flubbed it in

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two thousand and eight, two thousand and twelve, right, And

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now that they've not, now they've had some discipline, they're

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making money. I mean the producers are I was really

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you know, printing cash right, you know they're mining gold

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and so or they got real money, right, And oil

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prices are down, so you've got lower energy prices, lower

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input costs, and you've got soaring sales your revenue. So

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you have to be a really crappy miner not to

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be making money in the space. And by the way,

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to your audience, that's a litmus test. This is not

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a time to look for overlooked gems in the mining stocks.

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If there's a mining stock that is not responding to

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gold or silver, or gold or silver stock that's not

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responding to hire gold and silver, there's something wrong in

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that company exactly.

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Speaker 3: You know, you hit the nail on the head, and

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that's what you need to be aware of. There when

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you're looking for sure, So, hey, how much higher is

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it going to go? You know? Martin Armstrong said, once

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the gold hits five thousand, it'll rapidly go to ten thousand. Said,

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that's just the way they work when you hit those

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flat numbers, you know, those big numbers, that just goes

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up from there. It looked like we were going to

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get sixty dollars silver very quickly. I guess it's three

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weeks ago and then mysteriously what dollars? But now it's

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back over fifty, which tells me the control mechanisms are

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kind of becoming less effective, shall we say, if that.

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Speaker 1: Was mister slammy, as we like to say on social media,

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he failed, you know to it. I mean, if you

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think about it, like the last fifty dollars flirtations with

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silver worre like super sharp peaks, just screaming up intra

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day on him down again on the other side. So

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silver held above fifty before a couple of weeks ago,

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I held above fifty for more than a week, and

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now it's back and even higher. That that is really

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different from the previous spikes. It's already more of a

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plateau and not a spike and on the gold side,

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I think it's really telling that, like that beach ball

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that you know, they keep trying to push it under

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four thousand the day you know, Gold drops under four

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thousand and then come popping back up again with gusto.

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That again does not suggest that blow off top, you know,

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it suggests consolidation building, you know, getting ready for the

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next big leg. And the last times we've seen this,

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you know, Gold did it at thirty five hundred more

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or less, did it at three thousand for quite a while.

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Once it hit two thousand a couple of years ago.

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It with volatility, traded sideways for a couple of years.

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So it seems like you get a big run up, consolidate,

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big run up, consolidate, And so that's what's happening right now.

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We've had a big run up and it's consolidating, not

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going down again. So the pattern this isn't a promise,

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you know, how I cann it go? You're asking me

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a crystal ball question. My magic story here.

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Speaker 3: We liked on the spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, But so I'll be happy if I just

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get the direction right, you know, if we had had

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this conversation two weeks ago, I'd be much more cautious

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right now. With each passing day, it looks like we

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are seeing another one of these periods of consolidation before

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another move higher. I'm much higher, I don't know, but

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clearly five thousand is not so difficult from here. That's

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a pretty meal toast forecast.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, And the only surprise to you and I,

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I think happened back on the Great financial Crash. You know,

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But I guess maybe that crash certainly shook the foundations

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of the financial system, but it wasn't the final test.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was. You know, some of the smartest people

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I know, people I respect the most, all thought that

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that was it, Like there was no way that financial

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house of cards could withstand such a shock, and yet

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somehow they did, Like there's no way they could paper

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that over, and they did. Makes me nervous about saying

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they can't do it again. It seems like, you know, eventually,

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you know, but never confused the eventual with the imminent,

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as our friend Rick Rule likes to say. So, you know,

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judgment day is coming, There's no question. Their only question

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is when. And I cannot say that that is soon.

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I'm not sure that I'm willing to say that five

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and takes it straight to ten thousand. That blow off

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top implies pretty scary world, Carrie, and I'd rather not

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see that for some time, you know, frankly, But mister

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Turkey doesn't care what I want. You know, it's going

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to do whatever it's going to do. My take, for

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whatever it's worth is I think we're going to see

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more consolidation here, more waffling, and then we'll see more,

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you know, another big leg up, but hopefully not a

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parabolic you know, going vertical, because a that implies bad

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things in the real world, and b that implies the

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end of the of the bull market. Once you hit

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that blow off top, the next big move is down

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and that's neither what I want, but also not what

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I see based on the fundamentals that the money printing

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hasn't stopped, the central bank buying hasn't stopped, you know,

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all the reasons to be bullish on gold are still there.

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So it just doesn't seem like this is a market

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that's ready to peak. To me. It seems to me

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like a market that wants to go higher for years

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to come, and if it corrects in the year term

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before that then I would see that as a great

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opportunity for anybody who feels like they missed the boat.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like a couple of weeks ago when over corrected

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right and it was hit forty seven and then.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean think about that silver drops all the

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way to forty seven. Oh my, oh me, what will

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we do forty seven dollars? You know, those mines were

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built to make money at fifteen eighteen dollars silver. So

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the actual business that these stocks represent was fantastic, and

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yet the drop off in the stocks was like they're

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going broke tomorrow or something. You know, when when there's

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a disconnect between price and value. This is another Doug

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Casey ism, my own mentor, Doug Casey. This is one

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of his main things. When price and value diverge, that's

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where opportunity exists. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The thing is, I can still find deals on eBay

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today to buy silver below melt.

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Speaker 1: You know, I was, we were both at the New

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Orleans Show just recently, and I was walking the exhibitors

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hall looking at the companies, and I was hoping there'd

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be one of those dealers there who would have like

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bags of old junk silver, because I have I have

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a pretty decent silver stack, and I have, of course

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old bullion. That's how I saved my long term savings.

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Speaker 3: But I don't have a lot.

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Speaker 1: Of like you know, junk silver to make change if

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if you ever actually had to use it in a

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mad Max type scenario. You know, I'm not going to

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go down and buy a loaf of bread with an

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ounce of gold. I need more small change, or even

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an ounce of silver would be too much at that point.

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Speaker 3: We need I need a dime, a silver dime, basically

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something like that. Yeah, well, hopefully we won't get to

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that point. But to control they're going to have to

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do a reset, right, I mean, how else are they

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going to do this?

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Speaker 1: Just I agree? And the world has changed. You know,

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China's military problem. I remember, I remember a couple of

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decades ago when China started building out it's navy, and

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I thought, you know, good luck with that. It's going

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to cost so much. In the US is decades ahead.

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Now the Chinese Navy is larger than the US Navy.

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I mean, this is a very different world. And the

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bricks okay, it's just a club. It has no statutory authority,

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but there is sort of maybe moral authority, if you will,

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from that different world perspective. We let's put it this way.

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We had a piece dividend after the fall of the

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Soviet Union for decades and that led to this globalization

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and it defined an economic era that is rapidly being reversed.

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We are becoming a bipolar world again, maybe at more

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ways than one, new hemispheres, and that D globalzation trend

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is powerful and obvious, and it comes with a D

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dollarization trend. So you know, the macro setting here, I

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have very little doubt about where things are going. I

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just cautioned people to again, you know, Rick will never

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confused inevitable with the imminent. And as we were just

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talking about how unbelievable it was that they kicked the

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can down the road after the crash of two thousand

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and eight, so you know, there could be a big kerfuffle,

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market meltdown. Let's say the AI bubble pops, right, it

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really takes Wall Street down. You know, you got if

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you have this concentration of all this great outperformance American exceptionalism,

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if it's all in seven stocks and those go into reverse,

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the whole thing goes into reverse.

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Speaker 3: Bad news.

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Speaker 1: I would you know, bad news, scary things, opportunities would abound.

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You know. The idea is bilosa on right when when

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value in price diverged, that can be an absolute gift

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from the market. But don't assume this means the end

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is nigh right, you know, take out that insurance. Fine,

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have insurance in case things get really scary, but it

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you know, don't head for the bunker in Idaho until

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the girth challenged lady has sung.

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Speaker 3: I think we will leave it at that and just

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tell us where we found you and how we connect

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with you on the web below.

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Speaker 1: Independent Speculator dot com. I have a free weekly digest.

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You may or may not agree with everything I say,

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00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,200
but one thing I can publish this won't spam you

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with endless daily advertisements.

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Speaker 3: I hate that, all right. Well, that's a notable achievement

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in and of itself. Questions comments, shoot me an email

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kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. What about Oh, it's

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a pleasure. We will talk to you again real soon.

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Speaker 1: Next time, Carrie.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, your

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00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,279
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:28,359
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial survival Network now more than

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00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:28,720
ever