Speaker 1: Love good morning. As you guys can tell, I am
not in my home office. I'm gonna Ruba and I
would open up the curtain behind you, guys and show
you the beautiful view, except it's just gonna be completely
backlit by the sun. Speaking of the sun, we got
a shorter show today because I need to get out
in the sun. Aaron Epstine is already patiently waiting by
the pool, VR is patiently waiting in the wings. And
then Marco DiAngelo is gonna be joining us to take
some college football question. So you guys are basically getting
an extended version of this week's bet on It with
my two favorite guys, Yanni and Marco Paulogy's no Kyle
Anthony today, but you guys can head over to his
homepage WT Dot buzz backslash Ka if you're looking for
some of his UFC picks. I got some needs from
Art to Caesar at the Westgate super Book. He said,
they're gonna need Navy, They're gonna need Temple, they're gonna
need Louisville, They're gonna need A and M. He put
North Carolina on that list. That'd have been nice to
know last night, Art that you guys were gonna need
North Carolina. We'll see how the rest of the needs
pan out for today. I'm gonna retweet the show here
really quickly while we get VR waiting here in the wings.
Sharp money came in on Nebraska plus three down to Pickham,
Kinnesas State minus seven now minus ten. Kansas saw sharp
money early in the week. If you guys did see
bet on It, you guys remember that VR gave out
the University of Kansas plus six now four and a half.
Hawaii was a seven and a half point underdog, now
down to six and a half. Georgia minus seven now
nine the foremost public sides today at the Westgate Superbook Maryland,
Oregon Duke and Iowa State and art to Caesar is
going big time contrarian here. His favorite play is Florida
minus three, so very interesting there. We saw Florida take
up to three and a half. If you guys have
your Odds logic page open, I highly recommend it because
you're gonna need it for this next segment. Let's bring
in VR busy Saturday morning for my guy. I appreciate
him coming on early as all. I got my pin
and paper ready. I gotta take some notes. I'm headed
down to the pool here shortly, but before we do,
we got to lock in all of those last minute bets.
Speaker 2: Indeed, I got so much information for you, kell and
forgive the hair, it's still from last night. It's that
kind of morning i've been. I don't think I even slept,
maybe two hours, but we've just been firing. So let
me give you guys two props real quickly, because I
couldn't even give these two subscribers just got so much
to give you.
Speaker 3: LJ.
Speaker 2: Martin rushing yards LJ Martin rushing yards under sixty nine
and a half. And then in the NBA Indiana Denver game,
Andrew Nemhard, I gave that out to subscribers that was
still readily availuable. So that's Andrew Nemhard over three and
a half minus one fifty total assists good to minus
one sixty five, so that's over three and a half.
And then, real quickly, let me give you three added games.
These have done really, really well, but again, lines move
a little bit quickly, and I don't like the piss
subscribers off, so I kind of only share these when
we're going live. Added game THREEHO eight nine oh nine.
New Hampshire Monmouth over fifty eight and a half, over
fifty eight and a half, uh, Firman Chattanooga under fifty
four and a half. Firman Chattanooga under fifty four and
a half. Then Colgate Lafayette, Colgate Lafayette over fifty six
and a half. So that's over fifty eight and a half.
New Hampshire, Monmouth under fifty four and a half, Firman
Chattanooga over fifty six and a half, Colgate Lafayette.
Speaker 3: All those are gold.
Speaker 2: I'm telling you now some college football for you real quickly.
Here's some of the most one sided. Let's get that
out of the way, because I know everybody likes to
know what is the public on. I don't know why
they're so interested because you're not booking them. But here
you go. Indiana, Indiana, one of the most one sided
bets I've seen all week. They've been betting in Indiana.
They've been betting A and M, A and M money
line A and M, teaser A and M spread. So
a little surprised that they need A and M this
morning at the Westgate.
Speaker 3: But every book's different.
Speaker 2: Iowa, Iowa another doll that's getting a lot of money
from the public, even getting moneyline action also uh Georgia
Steam sharp and public on Georgia Alabama one side at
Alabama money like ton ton of exotics tied in with Alabama.
Texas Tech. That was the signe that I liked as
well the Texas Tech signed. That's up to eleven and
a half. That's why are the public is still betting it.
Whyse guys got down at about nine and a half,
so different number that they're betting now in Ohio state,
which gets money every single week. When you're number one
in the country, you're gonna get money every single week.
Some sharp moves that I got down on for the
groups I work with or have been shared with me.
That was yesterday USC that got there one fifty, Rutgers
plus one, that one flipped to minus one, BC one
thirty six, Bollston College twelve plus eleven, one forty three,
Stanford plus nine, all the way down the plus eight
one eighty nine, Nebraska, Nebraska plus three, UH one sixty
nine LSU opposite Alabama plus eleven plus ten and a half.
The fighting Irish of No tre Dame, as Joe says,
no Tre Dame minus twenty five and a half minus
twenty six and a half. They came through for the
Sharps last week in the public, they're coming right back
with them today. They also went under in that game,
so if they're laying Notre day Amen, the under may
want to look at that Navy team total under also
because they expect only one team to do the scoring.
So if the money, if the line gets away from
you get creative like that. If the under's gone, if
Notre Dame's gone, then look the Navy not to score
a lot of points. Kansas. I gave you Kansas on
bed on it. If you're watching that show, you've got
nothing but gold for me, Kelly and Marco. Then towards
the bottom of the board, last one ninety seven plus ten,
all the way down the plus nine and a half,
and then what aren't touched on Florida that actually just
came in with the guys actually work with.
Speaker 3: They want Florida.
Speaker 2: At minus three, So I like that play as well.
Speaker 1: Or if you are a couple of questions from the
chat and then we'll let Marco answer the rest of them.
I know you've got lots to do here before kickoff.
They want to talk college basketball. So it's November eighth.
College basketball started about a week ago, and we've seen
some interesting line moves early. We know those totals get
steamed up the second they basically come out.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 1: I get a whole list from a couple of different guys,
and most of them are at least gone by a
point and a half by the time I get into it.
So you're gonna give out some college basketball for today,
but can you kind of let everybody know, for at
least your clients when you want to give them to them?
But also they've moved considerable, Like, is there like a
threshold you usually recommend.
Speaker 3: Great question.
Speaker 2: The higher the number, the greater the threshold because you
expect more variants. So if I'm laying like today, we
got down on Nebraska, all right. They started betting the
Braska minus eighteen and a half minus nineteen. I got
down at minus twenty. I was still comfortable at minus
twenty because again, when you're talking about a line of
eighteen twenty twenty two, it's not as exact as when
you get down to minus two minus three. Those are
a lot more precise. There's not as much variance in
those games. So with those I'm a lot more disciplined.
Like I want the number. If it's a key number,
I want the key number, I let it go. If
it's not around a key number, then I'll do a
half point, sometimes a point even if I like that side,
like if I have an opinion. If I don't have
an opinion, then usually I'll just let it go kel
because there's more than enough action. The goal is to
get down plus ev bets. If you can keep doing that,
you're gonna make money long term. Like don't focus on
the short term. But if you're taking bad numbers, now
you're gambling, and that's where the problem comes in. So
I always I always put a threshold for my subscribers,
like this is a four percent at this.
Speaker 3: Number, and then they know if you can't.
Speaker 2: Get at that number, drop it down at three percent,
two percent, one percent, Like lower your risk. The more
value you get, the better the bigger bet you should place.
The less value, then the less the lower the bet
should be. So if I'm laying minus eighteen and a
half and you can only get nineteen nineteen and a half,
but you like that side, maybe cut your bet a
little bit instead. Of four percent play, go to three
percent player two percent play. Minimize your risk, bigger the edge,
bigger to bet, lower the edge, lower the risk. And again,
if you don't like it, just pass. If the numbers
not there, little come back for you, Sorry, kel, just
let me get give you these two premium plays I
gave the subscribers. I gave them Nebraska at minus twenty.
That's at minus twenty one right now at bet online.
I would still bet it and six nineteen talson. We
took talson plus twenty seven and a half. That's still
valuable at twenty seven. I would till take it. And
that's another key you gotta remember. If I'm laying eight
and a half and the number and you only look
up and it's minus nine, I would lay the nine
because the worst that happens is you push if I win.
Like if I'm laying eight and a half and I
cash my ticket and you laid nine.
Speaker 3: The worst you can do is push. But if I'm.
Speaker 2: Laying minus eight and you lay minus eight and a half,
that's when the problem comes in because I can.
Speaker 3: Push and you can lose.
Speaker 2: You don't want to put yourself in that position where
I can push and you could lose. But if I win,
the worst that happens is you push fire.
Speaker 1: All right, I like it. I like it. College basketball
season underway over at wager talk dot com VA. We
got a couple more minutes with you before we get
to the third leg of the bet on It trifecta.
Marco D'Angelo, who's gonna take some of your questions here
in the chat? Was there anything you mentioned a lot
of these lopsided games, and you said, I don't know
why these guys want to know they're not booking their action.
I think the reality is it's kind of like what
Art said to me when he sent me the I said, Florida,
everybody loves Kentucky and goes Kelly. We all know you
love to be a contrarian. I do think that part
of a lot of what our audience probably that hangs
on the chat feels better when they like a side
and the public just so happens to be on it.
Does that make sense?
Speaker 2: Talk a little extra.
Speaker 1: Confirmation to know that, Okay, cool, I like Massou today.
Oh everybody loves A and m. That makes me feel
just a little bit better about my bet It doesn't
necessarily mean that I'm going to win, because we do
know the public is sharper. We do know the public
is more educated than they've ever been before. But I
think it's just kind of one of those little little tinbits.
It's like, okay, or when you go on like one
of the Twitter pages and you see ninety seven percent
of the bets are on Indiana, and then I text
my friends, I'm like, I don't think I have the
guts to take Penn State. I don't think I could
do it, even though it is the most lopsided game
at BETMGM today for example.
Speaker 3: Now I agree, and I find comfort in that. Keil.
Speaker 2: I don't want to be on the side of all
the recreational betters, because you know, these guys bet for action,
these guys who willing to take bad numbers. These guys
are betting teams, and that's not a plus ev way
to approach it. I much rather find myself on the
side of the sharps, which is what the book tries
to do. They try to move they're in line with
the sharp betters. I'd rather be with them than anybody else.
If the books are afraid of them and they're getting
eleven to ten. It should tell you something. You want
to fall more on their side than the book side,
because the books get me eleven to ten. That's why
they keep making money and they keep printing it. Wise,
guys got to lay eleven to ten and they still
continue to find a way to make money. That's the
side you want to be on. That's where you want
to try to find yourself on. But it's more advantageous,
of course to be on the book side than the
recreational side. So I agree with you there, and I
don't find comfort when I know I'm with them.
Speaker 1: I don't love seeing my NFL plays for tomorrow, like
you know what I mean already being like, dang, everybody's
on the bus. That's just not. It doesn't mean it's
gonna lose, it's just not.
Speaker 2: I'm on Texas Tech. I like Texas Tech. I gave
them out at nine and a half to my subscribers.
Speaker 1: For and now we're seeing thirteens popping up on the
Odds logic screen. Precisely my point. That is a completely
different scenario. Those are completely Those are four point different bets,
essentially half point different bets. I also like Texas Tech
I use them in a stale line on my splash contest,
right because the lines don't move perfect. I used them
in the Westgate College Super Contest. So I do think
that you can still use this information even if the
line is.
Speaker 2: All gone exactly exactly. And you remember, like I tell people,
every line's gonna move. You look at a college basketball board,
college football board, almost every single line moves. The key
is can you do what does that move mean? And
how much confidence do you have in concluding what that
line means. That's why I like to come in and
try to clear that for you guys, like, yes, this
is legitimate, This isn't a middle this was a real
move like that. To me, is what's valuable? Or is
this was just a rogue number? They're taken because there
was this. Everybody else was at three and they were
three and a half like those That kind of information
to me is price the stone Hill plus twelve twelve
and a half college football extra boards stone Hill. Right now,
as I'm talking, it just came in.
Speaker 1: That's funny, all right, stone Hill I've never even heard.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to I can't tell you what state
they play in.
Speaker 1: I think is some of the best parts of the
information that you get. You're just like, yeah, I have
no idea.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 1: I mentioned to the show that Kyle was having internet issues.
So we are going to talk to UFC today, guys.
So I do apologize, but we got the guy who's
literally working with the UFC, at least from the on
air media side of things. VR, What are you seeing
for this UFC fight this evening? All right, I'm really
curious kind of to see.
Speaker 2: And I'm going to give you that a disclaimer. I'm
having a terrible year in MMA, in fact, rusting me
from being way ahead for twenty twenty five. And what's
crazy is if you look over the last five years,
I've won every single year in MMA. Three of those
years I finished number one, Like that's a sport. I
get really good information on I do a lot of
originating myself, and I work with two originators.
Speaker 3: But it's just been a bad year for me.
Speaker 2: So I'm just just keeping it real with you guys,
which is good I expect because this year is almost
over and here coming twenty twenty six. Yeah, I'll be
excited for that because we should progress back to my
mean of being profitable. But I like in the main event,
and I want to bring this fight out because everybody
seems to be opposite me. They all on Randy Brown
against Gabriel Bonfien, and I just do not see any
value there at all. Randy Brown's got a nice long
reach advantage, but he always does. The difference is with
Bonfieen is that Brown gave me has once he takes
it there, Brown's gonna be out of his depth with
someone like Bonfiend. More importantly, Bonfien isn't in that much
of a disadvantage in the striking other than the reach.
I rather take the much younger fighter with an obvious
path to victory, and Brown in these situations whenever he
stepped up, that's where he's always not able to live
up to those expectations. So I like Gabriel Bonfien. There
another line that's moved against me. I'm on an island.
I like roast Medic over Salakov Menis was a minus
one sixty favorite. Now he's down to like minus one thirty.
Who was I think he opened it like minus two hundred.
This one's not going to distance heavily favored, not to
These guys are gonna stand there in trade. They don't
go for takedowns. They're gonna throw. The difference is, I'll
take the much younger guy with much more power and
more precision with the better chin. I'll take meditch at
let that line keep dropping. I like the medic sign.
And then two sharp dogs for you really quickly, because
I know other people are waiting to jump on. These
are sharp signs from an origine. He's on t Shap
Pennington t Shap Pennington at plus one sixty five and
Ronnie Barcellos at plus one forty five. So Ti Shap Pennington,
Ronnie Barcellos and then under Bonfim Padilla. Those are three
plus money dogs that are all sharp.
Speaker 1: Ooh, I do love some plus money dogs. I've got
a few myself for this beautiful college football Saturday. That
was some UFC, some college basketball, some FCS, and of
course college football from VR. That kind of gives you
guys a little sneak peak what you can catch in
his steam room Sundays. He does right after this show
at excuse me, twelve eastern, nine am Pacific on Sundays
VR steam Room. If you guys are a wager Talk insider,
that two dollars in ninety nine cents a month does
get you some special privileges, including sometimes getting to join
his steam room with his premium subscribers. R anything else
you'd like to make note of before we bring in
Marco D'Angelo.
Speaker 3: Nah, just don't overlook the fact.
Speaker 2: Just because I'm not firing a five percent big move
in today's college football doesn't mean I don't have strong information.
I didn't fire five percent last week in college football,
and we went five or six and one on those
four percent. This card's just four percents again, just the
strongest stuff I have spread out our risk. I just
didn't want to narrow it down to that one that
has to win because I like the board a lot.
I feel the same way in the NFL again tomorrow,
So there's NFL up College Football, College Basketball, uh ufc up.
Join me for the weekend and more importantly longer because
this is a good time to be on board through
the end of the year for sure.
Speaker 1: Absolutely at Greek Underscore Gambler on your social channels. Thank
you to VR. You guys can also catch VR with
me Wednesdays on bet on It with a little guy
named Marco DiAngelo. I like to call him Marco Barco,
and that's because somebody in the chat made it up
a long time ago, and I think it's funny. Welcome in,
Marco DiAngelo, our third counterpart here. It's like beat On
at two point zero College Football Edition on Saturday. Are
going to run through all of your guys's questions. You
guys have some great questions in the chat, Marco, we
talked about a few of these, but on bet on
It this week. Excuse me, but I want to kind
of touch on them again here come Saturday, right we
stress on Wednesdays. Hey guys, it's early in the week.
We're doing our handicapping on Monday Tuesday, Wednesday morning, we're
getting our show out. But things do change, right, Injuries happen,
more information comes out. I'm kind of so curious because
this was a game that you and v are both
said where you're barking dogs, Marco, Hugh Freeze gets fired
and Auburn all of a sudden it is getting a
lot of love in the marketplace. And that's because so
far the year, we've had seven football coaches fired, and
out of those seven, six have won their game outright
the following week, or at least covered six and one
against the spread. Talk to me about Auburn here, and
do you also agree with VR on Wake Forest.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually like both of those games Auburn, Kelly.
When you get these coaches that get fired, to me,
why I think it is such a good thing to
take that team, And people say, why do you want
to take somebody that's in disarray, Because that's the natural assumption.
This works just about in every sport. You're going to
get an immediate spark from the players. And why well, okay,
if your a coach got fired, it means the team's
doing bad.
Speaker 3: So the coach becomes the scapegoat.
Speaker 4: If the players jump up and win the week he's gone,
well it wasn't us, it was him, you know. So
that's why you get an immediate benefit from them. The players,
they want to prove their worth. And then sometimes he
goes on a roll. And remember our dear friend, you know,
Dave Cochin. I remember a baseball season just a couple
of years ago, when I think it was the Philadelphia
Phillies fired to coach. He rode them the very next
day after the firing, and he kept betting them until
they lost, and they went on an hillatious wind streak
after that, and he said, you know, his right up,
it was hilarious. It ain't broke, don't fix it. That
was his right up. Just kept going until they lost.
So yes, I like that and I like that momentum.
We talked about the wake Forest play, and you know,
this is one of those things when you talk about
wake Forest, and one of the angles that I always
like to look at is when you're talking about a
top twenty five team that's playing an unranked team and
the lines, you know, at a touchdown or under, that
just sets off all the bells and whistles for me
that I am going to look something just doesn't smell
right here. And so often, Kelly, we mentioned it on
the show on Wednesday, when you get to the later
part of the season and you have teams that are
in positions that they haven't been normally, it's uncharted water
for them. In Virginia, they're ranked twelve in the country.
Please tell me the last time Virginia was significant in
college football. Okay, they're in play for play in the
playoffs and the you know, if they hold serve here
in the ACC what happens to teams.
Speaker 3: Like that that haven't been there, done that before.
Speaker 4: Is you know, it's human nature sometimes when earlier in
the season, maybe it was a fourth and two and
you were going for it. Now because there's so much online,
that fourth and two becomes a tougher decision for you
and instead you play not to lose instead of playing
to win, and you punt the football away And that's
never good when you're laying points with the team. And
that's why, you know, teams like wake Forest become very popular.
And then just look at the line in this game.
Last week, wake Forest played Florida State. There were a
double digit underdogar Florida State is not a good team
this year, okay, and compared if you look at the
standings of the ACC, Virginia obviously way up. Yet they're
laying less to wake Forest Virginia than Florida State did
last week. Please, you know, you know, explain that to me,
you know, and it's you know, something that you know
you talk about. You know, we have the luxury of having,
you know, bookmakers come on our shows here.
Speaker 3: I do radio shows.
Speaker 4: Around town where I get to talk to different bookmakers.
Our friend John Murray at the West Gate and these
are the kind of questions that you ask why, and
it's you know, I'm always going to side and I
give these guys. You know, maybe I'm just trying to
stroke the ego, but I always tell don I give
you guys behind the counter more respect than I'm ever
going to give somebody that's sitting in a boardroom watching
games and making rankings pure and simple. And the line's
telling me, wake Forest, yeah, outside.
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. Virginia right now the front runner to
make the ACC Championship game. That makes it rather interesting
in itself. All right, Marco, we got a couple more
questions here. Garth wants to know thoughts on laying six
with West Virginia. Also, shout out to Garth for the donation.
Don't worry, we were going to pay that forward, just
like we did last time. All of our donations go
to different fundings and charities. Last time, I believe it
went to Opportunity Village there in Las Vegas. So shout
out to Garth. This is an interesting one, Marco, because
West Virginia just was frustrating last week. John Murray text
me and another buddy of ours that also went to
West Virginia, and he said, ah, Sharps are bet in
West Virginia, And I said, should I consider them for
my parlay? And he said, kid, West Virginia is not
gonna win this football game. And not only did they win,
but they dominated Marco. They dominated Houston, a team that
was kind of a dark horse there at the beginning
of the season to win the Big twelve pretty much crusshows,
hopes and dreams. And now they just have to play
little old Colorado, a team that has looked atrocious all
season long.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, I did not get involved in this game
with the clients, but if I did.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you it's not West Virginia.
Speaker 4: I don't like a team that was a dog and
had a big win like that on you know, on
the road last week, and now they return home in
her a favorite in her a favorite under a touchdown
that mental. You know, you just look at that, and
I'm I try to look at things, and I know
I sometimes might piss off some of the audience, but
I try to look at things like John Q Public Okay,
is what I refer to them. And you know, I
play a lot of poker around town, and I love
sitting at the poker table and listening to the conversations
leading up to the weekend, because it.
Speaker 3: Doesn't get anymore.
Speaker 4: John Q Public been listening to the guys talking about
their three, four, five, sixteen parlays at a poker table
for the weekend. Okay, and trust me, West Virginia is
John Q Public. Play they won last week is a
double digit dog. Now they're home laying less than a touchdown.
They can't get enough of a play like that. It's
not in my diet. And I'm you as a you know,
you don't like chuck. You love dogs that can't be
in your your either.
Speaker 1: It's not and I definitely am not laying it. But
I don't think I could play it right. I mentioned
to VR earlier. I got some buddies text to me,
you know, oh my god, ninety eight point four percent
of the tickets at bet MGM or on Indiana, and
I'm like, I don't think I could still take Penn State.
Just pull this closure. This is just a spot where
I still don't think I could take the Buffalo starting
a freshman quarterback in his debut on the road. Not
my idea of a good time. We're gonna see how
that one ends up panning out. Maybe uh, West Virginia
gets the win and cover, but again, I just don't
think I can do it. We're gonna take some more
of these questions. If you guys have a question for Marco,
drop it in the chat. We're gonna go up until
there's no more questions. Rob wants to know. Ooh, I
certainly hope not. Yukon was my best bet this week
on bet on It. It's one of my favorite underdogs.
Marco did Yukon make your Sandwich video for this week?
Speaker 4: It did, Kelly, and I actually was waiting and you
jumped in. I was gonna say, Kelly, I got a
question from you. From me, My question to you, swear
to God, was gonna be, how good do you feel
about Connecticut right now? Because I don't know anybody that
hasn't jumped on the bandwagon of Connecticut.
Speaker 3: This week with us.
Speaker 4: And you know, maybe I'm gonna say everybody watches bet
on It, everybody watches Marco's Delhi, and they're all jumping
on because of us, because I don't know anybody that
isn't on Connecticut. And what scares me, Kelly is when
I talk to people around town, and you know other
Sharps and so forth, and there's certain guys that you know,
and I'm sure when you talk to John Murray, you
know he'll tell you, oh, these guys always play sharp dogs,
or these guys never play dogs. I know people that
just don't know how to say underdog. And they're on
Connecticut this week, and that scares the hell out of me.
But I'm holding a ticket when we had a much
better number, okay, earlier in the week. This line's down
to seven and a half in places. So let me
ask you, Kelly, how do you feel about that Connecticut
play right now?
Speaker 1: So it's funny. Ariel made me get up nice and
early after we were at the casino till two o'clock in
the morning a Ruba time, last night, and we walked
over to the sports book because I was told that, hey,
there may be some advantageous lions here in Aruba, right
because it's a local sports book and maybe you can
find some value. And I thought you could. Plus I
didn't hadn't checked my phone, hadn't really been on the internet.
I was like, you got plus seven and a half.
Other of this plays had advantageous numbers. I was open
to maybe get a ten. Sure enough, opened up my
odds lot excrewen on my phone and it was seven
and a half pretty much everywhere, and I thought, boy,
oh boy, we're gonna find out and see what Jim
Morres got up his sleeve. I do think it's an
awful spot for Duke. Still with Virginia on deck, coming
off that win over Clemson. I love this Husky team.
If you guys remember, I bet on them versus Syracuse
they blew a double digit fourth quarter lead. I bet
against them the following week with Delaware. It is what
it is. At this point in time, We're already lost
in noting Marco. I've already got first half game and
money line, so we're just gonna let it ride. There's
nothing I could do at this point, and maybe some
of those public guys will get the win there. Let's
hit a couple more of these questions. If you guys
have NFL questions, those have to wait till tomorrow. Ariel
will be here in the morning in this exact chair.
This is our makeshift set up for the week. Apologies
for the curtains, but it is gonna be fun because
we are gonna still get to all of your questions
regarding the NFL. Aaron will be here, VR will be here,
and I gotta check the schedule because I don't remember
who else. Of course, John Murray will be here as well.
Andrew wants to know afash you Clemson, Marco. This was
just a game that I just kind of pushed to
the wayside. There was nothing really intriguing about it. Florida
State we thought was gonna have a great season after
they upset Alabama week one. After losing to Virginia there
on that Friday night, it's just kind of been derailed.
I'm not sure how Mike Norvel still has a job,
but he does. Speaking that I having a job, I
don't know. Daviloisweni still has a job after losing some
of the games that he's lost this year. The game
lines what pretty much Clemson minus two everywhere. It looks
like any thoughts here.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I looked at this game and I actually had a
client ask me about this game this morning, texted me
and I said, here's my problem with the game and
why I'm not getting involved. I want to take Clemson
in the game, but this is a team that was
in the National playoffs last year. Okay, when you're a
team that every year you're competing for the playoffs and
we're in the first week of November and you're done.
I that bothers me because you worry about these teams
and kids, you know, throwing into tiel and that's whenever
they actually enjoyed playing for a program. There's no loyalty anymore.
I'm sorry, they're gonna the better players are going to
wherever they can get the best deal with the nil
and your season's over.
Speaker 3: They could check out. That's my biggest concern.
Speaker 4: If I played the game, it would be Clemson, But
I don't try their mentality of the team because of
the situation they're in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of agree with that as well. I'm
trying to look through some more of these questions see
if there's anything else. The Nebraska UCLA line flipped. Yes,
looked like early in the week the Sharps took plus three.
We broke this down on bet on It as well.
I believe or was discussed at least in a little
bit when a line has gone like that, Marco and
we could say the same thing for multiple other games.
Right BYU Texas Tech has has moved sharply in one direction.
I asked VR this question, but just for our audience,
from your perspective, at what point in time do you say, okay,
I can't bet Nebraska at this point. But then at
what point do you say, okay, this has now gotten
two out of control. I now need to look at
the other side. So whether it's UCLA, whether it's BYU,
or do you just say nope. I originally liked side X.
I just have to let it go because the line's gone.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 4: When it depends on what the line is and when
you get these games, And first of all, the three
was there for a heartbeat, that's all. Okay, that was
a heartbeat. This line most of the week was one
and a half U c LA. Then we saw it
go to pick. We even saw a couple of books
actually go to Nebraska one for a while, and then
it come back to UCLA. When you're dealing with the
number that basically is it's picked the winner. When they're
going back and forth between who's going to be the favorite.
I don't let that bother me because the line, and
I know you love the joke with John Oh, games
don't fall on one well, usually they don't what in
the NFL they do.
Speaker 5: And as a matter of fact, we've now had twelve
NFL games Land one Marco and next year I'm gonna
make John put up a prop at the Westgates super
Book and in August, I'm gonna bet it, and I'm
gonna bet the over thirteen and a half.
Speaker 1: I told him that's the number I want for next year's.
Speaker 4: But the situation is that oftentimes what happens with these
numbers when you're floating around, you know, the favorite for
both sides is there's manipulation of the market. This is
something that's becoming more prevalent in sports betting because you know,
before Kelly, as you said, there used to be numbers
where you could you can get a book that has,
you know, a stale number or whatever. Those days are
pretty much gone because what ends up happening and a
lot of the books won't admit it. But I would
say probably eight out of ten books are moving numbers,
not on bets, but on a bet at a key book.
As soon as there's something hits the screen that you
know is sharp, everybody's following along and what the sharp
players are doing. And I'm saying not players, I'm saying syndicates.
What they'll do is early in the week, when the
limits are much lower, they'll send some bets in okay,
and then everybody is so attuned to wanting to watch
the screen, and you know, be steam chasers. They see
a line move early in the week and they go, oh,
sharps are all over it and they run to the
window and then they piggyback it and then that gets
because it's a low minimums the beginning of the week,
it gets the line moving quickly early, and then all
the steam chasers jump on board, moves it even more
because you have all these smaller players making bets on
the same side. Then what happens when you get to Thursday,
when the minimums increase or the maximums increase, then they
can get more money. That's when you start seeing them
taking real positions and they're coming back. They manipulated the
market to get the number they wanted. So no, it
doesn't bother me. Now, if we're talking about six is
going to seven and a half or seven and a
half coming down to sixes and you lose a key
number like that, yeah, that's a different story, Kelly. You
got to say, oh, you know what, I missed the number.
Let's you know, I gotta move on. There's you know,
that's like the sun every day, it's gonna rise tomorrow.
There's gonna be something else I can bet on.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, the ocean is calling my name. But
the comments just keeps going. And I promised you guys
that if you guys were asking questions, I was gonna
stay sitting here. So we're gonna go through some more
of you guys question almost four thousand of you guys
watching live. Shout out to all of you on this
beautiful Saturday morning. And also, if you guys are looking
for a college football contest, just four week eleven splash
sports dot com backslash Kelly in Vegas right now. We
still have a fifteen hundred dollars overlay. It is a
ten pick week eleven college football contest. Only you guys
are looking for that Splash sports dot com backslash Kelly
and Vegas Marco a game I didn't look at here
in the Mountain West Air Force San Jose State hand up.
Mountain West football has kind of really started to subside
for me. I haven't found a ton of value here
and there. But you're still out there on the West coast,
and I know you still follow it because of UNLV
and you and R talk to me about Air Force
San Diego State, San Jose State.
Speaker 3: Excuse me, San Jose State.
Speaker 4: Air Force defense is absolute pure trash. They can't stop anybody. Okay,
if I played, they can score a lot of points,
don't get me wrong. And the reason that they're scoring
even more points this year. When you think of Air Force,
you think about that running game. But they can throw
the football this year, so they do score points. But
I can't trust them on the road. And if you
correct me if I'm wrong, I think last week they
played one of the fellow service academy, so you got
them in a bad spot. That way, it's San Jose
State or pass for me. I would go ahead and
lay it with them in this one or past the game. Also,
I wouldn't be looking at any unders in the Air Force
games because as fast as they can score, they give
it up as well.
Speaker 1: Ooh, very good insight there. Let's keep it going with
the Mountain West Titan CT shout out. He's one of
those Wager Talk insiders. WT dot Buzz backslash Insiders a
joint two dollars and ninety eight nine cents a month,
and that gets you tons of early access to everything
wager Talk Titan CT wants to know about UNLB today.
Marco was kind of one of those programs I thought
was gonna make that up and coming movement, especially with
nil money. Now we've got to see them flatten out
if you will.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have. And here's the problem, Kelly.
Speaker 4: They had the big game against Boise They went into
the Boise game two weeks ago undefeated, and you know,
we didn't know what to expect after Barry Odom, you know,
left in Dan Mullen come in coming out of you know,
from the ESPN booth and back into the coaching ranks.
But they played well offensively, defensively not so much, and
that has been a problem for this team. And then
once they went up against that physical team of Boise State,
they just got their doors blown off. So what happens
that we talk about so often last week was game two,
the week after they had their first loss in their
dream pressure, because if they would have beat Boise State,
they would have been in the driver's seat to go undefeated,
win the Mountain West Conference and it would have had
themselves in position to win that at large bid for
the playoffs. Dream crusher game. What happened so often? They
lost the same game twice. Now, with everything out the window,
I'm concerned about UNLV the rest of the way. They
still have a chance to get into the Mountain West
Conference championship game, but they got to run the table
and hope that San Diego State slips up a couple
times for them to get in there, because right now
they're the third man out. But I don't trust that
defense to lay points in this game here, so I
lean to UNLV, but I can't pull the trigger on them.
And Dan Mullen because of the success he did have
here his name, you know some rumblings going around maybe
he's gonna get a job offer after the season that
he's had here. And if you're a UNL vague player,
you gotta be saying, oh no, not again. We just
lost Barry Odom last year after we turned the program around.
Is it gonna happen again? So those are my problem there.
But I would play UNLV or past the game, but
too many question marks.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, all about my bills seven to one six.
You were in trouble because this tells me that you
did not watch bet on It this week. These are
two games at Marco D'Angelo already discussed, so I'm gonna
let him take the floor. You like Celebrity a lot
this week on the show, Marco so much that they
were your best bet. Talk to me about the celebrity
team and then also maybe why you're with everybody on
Alabama full disclosure, I mean Brian Kelly got fired, why
aren't we taking LSU?
Speaker 4: Okay, Well, I'll answer that one real quick, and the
reason for that one is I think they waited too
long to fire Brian Kelly and it ruined their season.
This is a team that LSU. We both were high
on him Kelly going into this season. You know, when
we did the previews early on, I thought they had
a legitimate shot to win the SEC this year, which
would have put them in the national championship conversation. And
they expected that too. They were highly ranked coming into
the season. Remember that first week against Clemson when you
added the battle of top ten teams, We thought they
were for real in the season unraveled. So even though
they fired to coach I don't know that you get
excited because where are you going with the record they
have right now? That's the problem with them. Alabama's coming
off a scare and a bye week. Two weeks ago,
we had South Carolina against Alabama. I thought that was
the flat spot for Alabama, and they almost lost that game.
They needed a late touchdown in the fourth quarter to
win by seven. We got the double digit cover with
South Carolina. Normally, good teams off of scare come to play.
That's why I had Alabama on the show. The Liberty play.
Speaker 3: That was simple. Liberty was a team coming into the season.
Speaker 4: That a lot of sharps were very high on, and
they were supposed to run away with that conference. They
got off to a slow start because they played a
murderous schedule the beginning of the season. Now they're playing
the way they were anticipated to play coming into conference play.
They're three and one. They're only one game behind the leaders.
There's two teams there are four and oh in the conference.
They're playing their best ball right now, but people are
still looking at that losing streak at the beginning of
the season. You've got to adjust to how a team
is playing right now. I think seven and a half
is a low number. I've even seen some eights around
town on that game. I still like Liberty, all right.
Speaker 1: I think we're out of questions. I could be wrong. Okay,
we got we got two more questions we're gonna get to.
But before we do, Marco D'Angelo, what do you got
going on? Over at wager talk dot com? The Deli
has been so awesome if you guys have missed not
only on bet on It, but the standalone Deli video
that Marco does every single week where he's showing you
different scheduling spots to take advantage of you guys are
missing out. It's been crushing.
Speaker 3: It's been a really good year for us on there.
Speaker 4: With that, we've had nine episodes, six winning episodes, two
losing episodes, and one break even.
Speaker 3: It's been fun.
Speaker 4: The NFL game, Kelly, we give one NFL game each
week on the Deli eight.
Speaker 3: And one this year on the NFL Game. To head
over there to check that one out.
Speaker 4: And if you want to check out my card today,
I do have a five percent play up today. We
had to play last week of five percent because I
don't want to get Kelly mad at me. I won't
say who that five percent was last week, but it
was an easy win, but it was not as easy
as the final score looked. I did get some breaks
in the fourth quarter in that game, but you know what,
I'll take it and cash that ticket and move on.
But we're on a fourteen and three run, Kelly. For
the clients over the last nine days, you can pick
up the one game today for thirty five dollars, or
the birthday bash is still available. You can pick up
seven days for sixty four dollars. Guys that have picked
it up the first two days Thursday and Friday of
this week, they're three and zero, and the guys that
have been riding along since last week, they're on that
fourteen and three runs. So head on over to Wagertalk
dot com or go directly to my homepage wt dot
buzz backslash MD. You can join me for either just
five percent by itself or seven days for sixty four dollars.
Speaker 1: And if you guys forgot to tell Marco happy birthday,
you guys can do it in the comments section right now.
Happy belated birthday, Marco D'Angelo. Here's one of the last
couple questions this is a game I wanted to talk about.
Mississippi State. Boy, has that team made me some money
but been very frustrating on those money line bets. They
did open up seven and a half this week versus
Georgia now plus nine and a half. Georgia is on
that list that not only Art gave me, but also
VR gave me on a very lopsided game. The public's
all over Georgia. Miss State. Man, I just don't know
how many other games they can win by lose and
cover by close margin. They have just been so damn frustrating.
Speaker 4: They have Kelly, but and I'll be honest, this one
just missed being on a Deli because Georgia's in a
bad scheduling spot with what they've been having to play with.
But they shouldn't look past this team. And that was
the final factor why I didn't put it on the Delhi.
Mississippi State. You're right, They've had so many games where
they've played so well, and they not only were covering Kelly,
they had the leads late in a lot of those
games and then the other team, you know, puts the
dagger in but you get the points spread win, but
they lose the game, you know, late in the game Georgia,
they got to look at the schedule and see all
of those close games that Mississippi State has had. They
shouldn't look past them. And that's the only reason it
made me pump the brakes that it didn't make the deli.
But they were, as you always say, Kelly, my long list.
They were there heading to this week's deli. They just
got left on the editing floor because we put five
plays out for College one NFL and they just missed.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I looked at my list and it's like, I just can't.
I can't do it. After the Texas game, they broke
me mentally. They did it, and that probably means they're
gonna cover the nine and a half today. Shot go ahead, market.
Speaker 3: One more for you. I gotta give you credit.
Speaker 4: You know you always you know you're a sharp player,
plus EV player. This was a big plus e V move.
You taken the Saturday last call and given Aeriel the
Sunday one because you only had one night of drinking.
She's got to deal with two.
Speaker 1: Oh. I guarantee she's got a marguerite in hand right now.
She's not calling me because I told her I was
gonna be there on the half hour. I said, we've
only got Mark on VR today unless the comment section
is popping and there's almost five thousand of you guys.
By the way, that's why I'm not out by the
lovely ocean that is right behind me on the other
side of this window. Shout out to Marco at Marco
and Vegas on social channels if you guys want to
give him a follow over. There you can catch all
of his stuff like the Deli as well as bet
on It. Shout out to VR, agrig, Underscore, Gamble, make
Sure because are given to a fall, and of course
you can catch all three of us every single Wednesday
right here on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Marco, anything
you would like to leave our audience with before we
get the heck out of here.
Speaker 4: I hope they played Forever Young last week in a
reader's cup that we gave him right here on Nope.
Speaker 1: I was. I was not on the show. Joe Madden
so kindly filled in for me so I could go
visit some family members, and Marco didn't even text me
about Forever. You couldn't even send me he goes watch
the show, Kelly, this is how I get treated. I
just want you guys know this is how I get
treated sometimes on wager talks by some of the guys
if I consider it to be really good friends of mine.
Shout out Marco, shout out Forever Young, and shout out
to all of you guys who hang out with us
every single Saturday. We'll be back, same time, same place tomorrow,
same ugly curtains behind me, except Ariel will be in
the host seat. Good luck today. I hope you cash him.
Don't trash him, as Vre likes to say.