Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is Tuesday. What that means.
What it means a couple things, Rob Vino. First, it
means it's five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk. That means myself,
Rob Vino and every other handicapper on the site will
have something up for five bucks. The other thing it
means now that it's conference play is all the big
games go today. That seems to be the new normal
in college hoop. We neglect Monday and every big team.
Speaker 2: Plays on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: So if you missed yesterday's show or you're tuning into
today's show looking for Virginia Louisville, Robin I already broke
that game down. So to get that breakdown, you can
go to the wager Talk YouTube channel, which I believe
they clipped it to make a standalone video, or just
go to yesterday's show at the beginning and you'll get well,
you'll get our full breakdown on Virginia Louisville. We did
that because there's so many big games today, so we
wanted to, you know, make sure we touched on the
games you want to hear about. As fun as it
was talking swack basketball for most of the day, yesterday,
Robino gets there right at the end with the team
total in Alabama State, Howard won by about thirty. For me,
we hit the parlay, so we're coming in with all
sorts of momentum. But rob I look at this slate
and there is something that overwhelming pops out to me
as it pertains to the bigger games, and that is
the the book makers are very intelligent, and what they
are gonna make you do seems to be every big
game they are going to make you pay an astronomical
tax to bet the home team.
Speaker 3: Today.
Speaker 1: That is I feel like across the board go back
to yesterday when we talked about Virginia Louisville. Louisville's up
to minus four and they might not have a couple
of their better players, so I think Conwell might play tonight.
But still, and then the other one that comes to
mind right off the bat when I saw it open
is the game I'll be at tonight in Newark, New Jersey,
Yukon taking on Seaton Hall. Were you a little surprised
to see that was only five and a half at
the Rock?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting, Adam, and real quick just to finish
up the housekeeping on Louisville Virginia. We did talk a
little bit about the Louisville injuries yesterday, just to update
guys out there. Mickel Brown still out for Louisville, but
Ryan Conwell will play. Probably the reason why the line
held where it did, get into Yukon and Seaton Hall here.
It's interesting. I didn't even know this myself until I
read it last night that Yukon hasn't beaten Seaton Hall
on the road since twenty twenty one, crazy as it
may seem. And last year Seaton Hall was down seven
with forty five seconds left in the game, got it
to overtime, on it in overtime. Danny Hurley made a
little mention of it. We'll see if Yukon doesn't come
in with a little extra motivation to do something that
they haven't done in four seasons heading into five now.
So yeah, I was a little surprised. I mean, Seaton
Hall to me has played very well this year. I've
been on them a couple of times. Obviously it's a
defensive minded team. However, we've talked quite a bit about
Bud Clark at the point and extension of the coach
Sheen Holloway just to be repetitive here real quick for
those who may be joining us here at full court Press.
Now that college basketball season really today Adam takes over.
We have no more football midweek, nothing to bet on
other day in college basketball and the NBA, so people
may be tuning in quick. Gen Holloway obviously said that
his team has taken to his system. They've been great
all season long, and they're going to be a pain
in the neck for Yukon tonight. I think the problem
for Seat and Haul in this game is the Yukon
depth is overwhelming. I think the problem another problem for
Seat and Haul in this game is Danny Hurley is
still not satisfied with his team and their performance, whether
it be taking care of the basketball, whether it be
random on the defensive end, etc. Etc. So here's a quote.
I want to give you this quote real quick here
from the head coach. I don't know, and you and
I have talked about this quite a bit. I don't
know that this is like the twenty four team where
we were just a destroyer, just a devastating machine. I
don't necessarily think they're coming into every game with a
seek and destroy mentality I don't think this team is
built like that, but we need these guys to develop
more of a killer instinct. Danny Hurley always looking for
something right with that team to push forward, push forward.
I think that's the next thing here, to get all
facets of the game cleaned up. They certainly have the personnel.
I would lean that way tonight. But more than that, Adam,
I just you talked about paying tax on sides, and
I think the odds makers have had enough time here
to see who's high scoring who's not high scoring. And
we pay tax on over unders now too. And if
you want to bet this game under, because Seaton Hall
is a defensive mind to team, it's an extreme under
one thirty one and a half. You can get the
sixty seven to sixty five almost by mistake in this
game and cash your tickets. So I may look that direction.
I still haven't decided. If you put me on the
hot seat to pick a side, I think you kind
will come in here with a focused mentality. But Seaton
Hall is going to be right there with them. Good game,
extremely physical game. I just think Yukon's depth might wear
Seaton Haul down a little bit here. They've got more
files to give in a game that could get a
little physical.
Speaker 1: Yeah, can we can we talk about the uh you know,
just the you made a good point, Rob. A lot
of people are gonna come over. They've been betting football
exclusively for months. They're going to stroll in like they're
and you'll you'll see it. You'll you'll see it from
people selling picks. You'll see it for all over the
place overnight, going to become a college basketball expert. It
happens every year. This is my annual Like, hey, I've
been here since November, first vent session where it's like
they're gonna come in act like they're an expert, and
then they're gonna give you a play like a Seaton
Hall or like in Oklahoma. And I'm not listen, I'm
not saying that that's not gonna win. But like the
books are very smart, and what they're doing is they're
they're putting an insane tax on this game being played
in Seaton Hall. You made a great point. Seaton Hall
has won this game the last four years. And I'll
get to why, you know I think that is in
a second. But the reality is, like you know, you
may have your quote unquote sharper people bet a little
bit more on that sort of hype spot, and then
you'll have the betting public who's still probably gonna look
toward Ukon. But it's not necessarily wrong. The thing is
like the outcome is gonna be the outcome, but like
Seaton Hall plus five and a half is a bad number, okay,
And there's like every there's a lot of big spots
on the card where that's gonna be the case today,
and then you're gonna get someone feeding you Seaton Hall
plus five and a half, Like it's just like insanely
sharp side, which is not It just isn't like that.
Speaker 2: Any anyone that knows and anyone.
Speaker 1: That does power rankings knows that that is a you'd
be you'd be paying a massive premium for Seaton Haul
at home at that at that number.
Speaker 2: Now, why have they won this game the past four years?
Speaker 1: Well, they they pretty much have given the rest of
the country a blueprint on how to beat Yukon. I'm
surprised more maybe it's maybe because maybe it's because other
teams are not as equipped to do it, but insane
ballpet pressure and pressing a lot of the game has
been a reason that Seaton Hall has had success in
this matchup year in and year out. Now they could
still do that here. It's just that to me. To me,
the problem is you're only you're not even getting three
full possessions. So you're really asking for Seaton Hall to
play their game, but then play it at a very
high level. Now, Dan Hurley as good as a preparation
coach as you're gonna find, as good as sort of
like you know, getting his team ready. I've said this
a million times, Rob, I think he is the best
coaching staff in the league. I think a lot of
these guys could be head coaches other places if they
wanted to be. They choose to stay in the basketball
capital of the world stores Connecticut, because what they've built
there is just that worth staying around for. So my
whole thing is is this, and I guess it's my
my fear for Seaton Hall in this game. If Yukon
can handle their pressure, which they certainly have the guards
to do that, they can Seaton Hall score enough.
Speaker 2: To keep up with them. That's my concern.
Speaker 1: I guess I slightly lean toward the over because I
do think that like this Seaton Hall team, you talk
about like what a last year's Seaton Hall team win
two Big East games and Yukon was one of them.
So maybe there is something to the style in which
Holloway plays, But man, it just feels like that line
came out and Dan Hurley probably called a team meeting
to talk about how disrespectful minus five and a half was.
Speaker 3: Probably, I'll tell you over the weekend, Adam, when they
won seventy two to sixty, he was displeased. He said,
we probably should have won by twenty four, but we
let off the guests. And to your point about pressure
style on the guards, again, I said it earlier. It's
one of the things he's harped on all season long
ball security, ball security, ball security, and when they want
to they're a very good ball handling team when they
get like a days ago, which may be a small
percentage of the reason why Seaton Hall has continued to
beat them for four years is a little bit of
a lack of respect. Their Yukon strolls in okay Seaton Hall,
you know, and then next thing you know, you're getting beat.
But with Braylan Mullens playing the way he is now
and the amount of shooters that they have Demrie and
Ball and the two centers. It just seems to me
that there's too much depth on this U conteam. Quality
depth four seat and halt to handle. Probably come out
with a nice punch, but can you keep it going
for forty minutes and hang with him five and a half.
And I'm with you. I kind of lean over here
because I think Yukon is going to uh score mid
seventies in this game, and if Seaton Hall has to
chase so file so to me, it would probably be
a good look at the under here or excuse me,
on the over here, like I say it just that's
what struck me is that the total was that low.
I would have, you know, been fine with one thirty
six and a half or something like that, and said,
the odds makers are on it, but it looks like
they just want to push it down, so maybe we
can take advantage.
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, Like this Seaton Hall team is more capable
than their last couple teams have been offensively. I personally
think Bud Clark needs to play out of his mind
tonight for Seaton Hall to have a chance in this game.
But he's kind of done that, like he's he has
the ability to do that. And I think for me though,
I think I'd be much more comfortable backing and over
here knowing that Danny Hurley is not not gonna let
up like he he he is that guy wants to
go out and embarrassed Seaton Hall tonight.
Speaker 2: They're not sneaking up on him this year. I know
he went there.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he still has a you know, place in
his heart for the program a little bit, you.
Speaker 2: Know, being a Jersey guy.
Speaker 1: But Seaton Hall got that number next to their name yesterday,
Rob the twenty five, the top twenty five ranking. I
think you're gonna I think you're gonna see Yukon be
very motivated.
Speaker 2: But for me, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't like the way they match up with Seaton
Hall enough to lay the five and a half. So
for me, it's the over. Yeah, Steve Duke says, it's
a big game. Yeah, it's the biggest game of the
season for Seaton Hall. And and a good point to
make before we move on to our other feature game
that we're going to talk about, is Seaton Hall, like
the Big East, is not set up this year for
you to have unlimited chances like there are not many
what I would consider big time signature wins in the
Big East Conference this year. It's a down year for
the league, so this is just a massive game for
Seaton Hall to get that that resume type win. All right, Rob,
I want to stay Tuesday. Its almost seems that we're
almost gonna always do a co favorite. We even had
really really co feature. I'm sorry we even had a
try feature because we used Virginia Louisville yesterday. So I
want to move into the other what I consider massive
of the massive games, the biggest one of the night,
and that's in Lawrence, Kansas, where the Iowa State Cyclones
are going to take on the Kansas Jayhawks.
Speaker 2: And this is this is actually.
Speaker 1: One Rob where I don't think the lines. I don't
think they're making you pay some sort of crazy tax
for Kansas at home. The line was somewhat where I
expected it to be. But that being said, like I
do think you're relying on a couple of things to
happen for Kansas to stay in this game. Darren Peterson
making shots all game long would be the main one
for me. And if you don't get that, it's hard
to for me. I think Iowa State is head and
shoulders better than this Kansas team, so I'm leaning toward
the visitor. But boy, once again, Allen Field House the fog,
it's going to be rocking.
Speaker 2: Do you want to play against the Jayhawks at home?
Speaker 3: Here, I'll tell you what strikes me, Adam, is the
move in this total. And unless the opener that I'm
seeing on the screen was wrong to begin with, this
is an eight and a half point move on a
total between Iowa State and Kansas. And granted maybe the
opener was too low, but the money has just hit
this thing and hit it again, and hit it again
and hit it again. Now, Kansas has kind of taken
on a higher scoring persona since Darren Peterson's come back,
and Melvin Council Junior doesn't have to do everything all
by himself like he did when Peterson was missing, and
they've got quality offensive players. Here a couple of things
where this Kansas team is concerned, and it would worry
me against the team that's built like Iowa State. Here's
Bill Self telling you about last game they lost by
the way, eighty six to seventy five to West Virginia.
Ross Hodge's team again I'll just go back to November
Adam when we spoke about Ross Hodge. He came from
North Texas with the North Texas style, and here he
is at West Virginia scoring eighty six against Kansas. The
other day. Bill self says, we were very poor. They
backed us down, they backed our guards down, they backed
us down on the post, and we didn't give much
resistance at all. They took advantage of that, and then
we didn't obviously score. On the other end, they were tougher.
We never stopped them the whole night. They still got
thirty nine in the first half. We never stopped them
and never made them play poorly. Even el Marco Jackson,
a guard for KU, had this to say, got to
focus on getting back to playing how we played basketball
and being tougher. You don't walk in and play Iowa
State and not play tough and get away with it.
Iowa State, I think we mentioned before. Aside from all
of their offensive capability, it's a really good defensive team.
On top of that, I'm with you, I think personnel
wise they're better. I do think Kansas, you know, the
more I look into this total and the move which
had me scratching my head this morning, I was like,
did some thirty point scoreres drop in to one of
these lineups to force this game up? But Kansas really
is when you add those things up, offensive players and
softness on defense, you just get it breeds higher scoring games.
Iowa State's gonna probably do what they want to do. Again.
You could take the coach's words and apply that and say, well,
what he's saying means that they're gonna come out with
a defensive mentality and a physical mentality right out of
the shoot. And I wouldn't dispute that. But what I
would say is that generally those things, teams trying really
hard to be something there not doesn't last for forty minutes.
Eventually that wears off. So for me, I think I
would be looking Iowa State's way. I think the sixteen
and oh bullseye on their chest will have KU fired
up in this game, and for that reason I won't
play it. But because I think Kansas in that crowd,
in that frenzied crowd, and with that type of motivation,
could pull this upset off. The Big twelve is always
in upset lead teams beating each other up. So I'll
leave it alone. I don't think I can get to
the total here at one fifty one and a half.
They priced it out of my range. So for me,
good game to watch, really good game to see if
Kansas does respond to what the coach in even though
Marco Jackson had to say about their lack of toughness.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as as you were talking, I was watching the
screen and sort of watched so at MGM and Caesars.
This just got faked down to like two and a
half and then instantly bet back up to three and
a half, which sort of confirms where I think the
you know, the respected money is going to go in
this game. Colin in the chat says Kansas is not
very good. Yeah, I agree with that. I was talking.
You know, I have a buddy that went to TCU,
so I've kind of followed that TCU program a lot.
And you know, we were talking about that Kansas game
before the Kansas game. Watched some of that game, and
like you always talk about comp game games, comp type teams,
the way TCU defense is very similar to Iowa State
in my opinion. You know, Kansas wins that game, but
really I mean one oh four to one hundred and
ot it felt like TCU had them dead to rights.
They obviously figured out how to score on TCU if
they were able to get to one hundred points even
with some extra you know, in the extra five minutes
in ot But like Iowa State can do that defensively
and then do like a plthorow of other things that
TCU can't do right. So it's like, not only do
you have to to deal with lipsey and the and
the the really tight harassing defense from the guards, but
but Iowa States got so many other things they do well,
to the point where I feel like, if you're back
in Kansas year, you're just hope. You're hoping for two things.
And someone in the chat said it, Peterson's probably got
to play the whole game or be productive for most
of this game for Kansas to win. I lost the comment,
but I agree with you whoever said that. And then
the other thing is they they need they would just
have to ride the like fog wave to a win
here where it's just like you know, they hit every
big shot in the crowd gives them all sorts of momentum.
Speaker 2: Again, this is what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of these home teams today
who are playing a what I consider to be a
far superior team, are really banking on the like, you know,
the crazy atmosphere is going to get us home angle
because when if you take that out of it, Iowa
States just so much better. And I don't think that
there's really anything that they're not that Kansas can do,
aside from like insane shot making if they get it
that Iowa State doesn't have an answer for. So I
was very close to clicking Iowa State when it got
to three, that it was there for about two seconds.
I make the number Iowa State minus three. But I
think they're just far better than this Kansas team, and
so I lean toward the Cyclones here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, two quick things to add Adam. The great thing
about Iowa State that you don't really find in abundance
around the country in the Power four conferences is they're big.
Three are returnees, right, I mean Lipsy Mimsilovich, and Joshua
Jefferson all three. I mean Lipsey got hurt at the
end of last year which cost them obviously in the tournament,
played her, I think in in their final game. But
those three guys all are as cohesive as it gets
as veteran leaders, and you just don't have that a
bunch across the country in Power four conferences and the
last three of Power five. Last thing I'll say real
quick here is since Darren Peterson has returned, which may
have me go back and re examine this total. But
since Darren Peterson's come back, the three games that he's played,
game totals one fifty six against UCF, one seventy four
in regulation against TCU, two h four full game because
of that overtime, but one seventy four, one fifty six
and then one sixty one against West Virginia. Is just
crazy that West Virginia West Virginia game can get the
one sixty one. So perhaps there's a lot of merit
in this total move. Congratulations to the guys who got
there at one forty three, one forty four, one forty five.
You're holding a good ticket. But hopefully your closing line
value doesn't end up in the garbage cameras sometimes it does.
We'll see how this goes. And as you mentioned the
Bride the Lawrence Wave, we do see that type of
stuff in the Big twelve every single year where teams
upset teams that are ranked, sit in the standings above them.
We don't care too much about rankings. Early, you said,
twenty five applies to seat and all some people care.
We really don't care too much about that. But it
would probably have Danny currently throwing an extra piece of
kindling on the fire. For sure.
Speaker 1: He definitely cares, Yeah, he absolutely cares, Like, don't tell
me that Danny. I got to sit behind the Yukon
bench twice. I sat behind the Yukon bench in Albany
when they played Saint Mary's in the NCAA tournament, and
I sat behind the Yukon bench a couple of years
ago at the Excel Center when they played Marquette.
Speaker 2: That guy is.
Speaker 1: An absolute psychopath, an absolute nut job. I got to
hear him like yell and screen the whole game.
Speaker 2: He is nuts. There's you can't convince me that he
that number doesn't matter to him.
Speaker 1: I know he got off topic there, but he is
a complete nut job in like the best way possible.
I wish Joey Cheese was in the chat right now.
He'd be all over this conbo. But real quick, got
a promo the five dollars Tuesday. That is that is
the promo on Tuesdays, but every day Rob and I
have our three day I think it's like that.
Speaker 2: There's a cool name for it. It's like the fireball
something I don't know.
Speaker 1: I guess I should probably know the promo before I
get on the fire to double the firepower, Rob, I
think they're calling it, which is great. Again, should probably
know the promo before I come on here and promo.
But the point is, you get Rob and I all
our college Shot picks for a three day stretch, and
that is gonna be up all year, so you can
use it at any time Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, doesn't matter.
That is up today as well, and easily easily the
cheapest way to get both of our picks for that
duration of time. So check that out on both of
our pages. All right, I'm gonna kill many birds with
one stone here because we got a donation from Garth.
Speaker 2: Appreciate you.
Speaker 1: Garth brings it every day and we very much appreciate him.
I know he's winning a lot of these bets. He
comes in and donates like every day, but he almost
always brings up like a winner, so I think. And
we talked about Ducine last time they played I think
we both got this right. Saint Joe's ended up winning
that game, and it soared over. It absolutely soared over
because it went to overtime. Ninety seven to ninety was
the final. My guy Sean Lay, who's always commenting on
my Twitter, says, I don't talk about Dayton enough. So
we're gonna get both of those things done right here
out in the Atlantic ten tonight for Garth Dayton, the
Flyers are going to hit the road take on a
Dukine team that's got to be a little bit pissed off,
right They, you know, kind of lose a tight game
to St. To Saint Joe's. The game before that was
a game that you know they they lose at home
to VCU. But yeah, that's not necessarily a bad loss.
VCU is still very good, even with the coaching change.
So I'm gonna let you start this one off because
the question is totals based. So Garth says thoughts on
Ducane team total over seventy four and a half.
Speaker 2: They have gone over in the total every home game.
Speaker 1: Dayton has only allowed seventy four plus four times this season,
and he knows this matchup his historically low scoring but
what do you think, Rob Dukane, team total over seventy
four and a half. They've certainly looked the part offensively
at times this year, which I think he's sort of
noting here and that I haven't been to this building yet,
but I guess I give a ten home teams a
little bit of a bump.
Speaker 2: So talk to me about this one.
Speaker 3: Ducaine Dayton, Yeah, and I think Garth obviously, I would
say you read my mind a little bit here, simply
because Ducaine is a team that I've been actively looking
at and betting totals wise all season long. And credit
to Drew Joyce here. Adam the head coach who stepped
in last year and played a certain style and then
took the team this year, saw what he had and
we talk on an awful lot about, you know, not
trying to fit square pegs and round holes. He took
the talent that he hadn't decided we're going to go
up tempo here, and they've raised their tempo extensively. They're
now thirty seventh fast and the fastest and adjusted tempo.
And more than that, like I always like to say,
on offense, I want to see how quick your possessions
are they're forty eighth in length of possession, so fast, fast, fast,
Anthony Grant on the other side, Bennett Dayton forever, and
I I will say Adam that I think this kind
of is different. Garth mentions that I know these matchups
have been historically low scoring, and I you know, that's
great until the other team changes philosophy and it's a
different coach. Obviously they saw Dukaine last year with Drew Joyce,
but it's a change in philosophy and you don't really
know how to prep forward until you get out on
the floor against it. And I give that edge to
Dukine right out of the shoot here, especially at home,
to hit Dayton with some things. And honestly, it's a
reason why I played Indiana first half the other day
because I thought with the new head coach Darren Darien
Derees and the new style that Nebraska hadn't seen it.
And sure enough, first half thirty nine thirty. Then you
get to the locker room, you adjust, and you wind
up winning the game kind of the same way I
feel here. Maybe Anthony Grant can adjust second half, but
I think Dukaine's capable of putting up like a forty
spot in the first half before they've realized, and that
puts you well on your way to over seventy four
and a half. So it's the only way I would
play it. Do cane team total over. I certainly wouldn't
want to be on under in this case. Despite the
historical results, I think you have a totally different different
situation here, and for what it's worth, really quick here
against quicker pace teams. I'll just use the comp game again.
We love to do that in my world Florida State,
which gets up and down the way Dukine does, and
the Florida State game was a ninety seven sixty nine.
But more important than that, it's just an example of
Dayton going with the other team's strength, and that was
on Dayton's home floor. Here they're on the road. I
think Dayton will probably be forced to go with du
cane strength, and if they're ever in catch up mode here, Adam,
that just forces them to play quick, to get points
quickly and you know, try and gain some action. Last
thing I'll say yesterday we talked a little bit. If
we don't hit this two team parlay, we may go
to three and we might bring by you in here
to be the third guy. I'll tell you what it
would have to be co third team parlay people, Because Garth,
as you said, has been on the money all season long.
I think he deserves a little shot at the other
end of a three team parlay. But we did win yesterday,
so we don't have to go that route yet, guys.
But stay in the bullpen. Be ready.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, we owe for absolutely. I totally agree
with that, and we do. By You hit the leg
the other time, so he definitely has earned another shot there.
But yeah, we hit, we hit the two team or
yesterday we'll stay with a two team or today. I'll
be honest, like I was wrong about Drew Joyce. I
was a Drew Joyce hater when he took.
Speaker 2: This job over. I'll just admit it.
Speaker 1: I didn't think, you know, he took takes over for
Keith Dambrot, who I was a great coach for a.
Speaker 2: Very very long time, and I did not Your boy.
Speaker 1: Was was anti Drew Joyce when he took that job.
And I will just admit right here I was wrong.
Speaker 2: I was wrong.
Speaker 1: He is got this this you know from where they
were when he took it, you know, took the team over.
Of course, well he takes a team over that was
probably on the d client and then suddenly gets to
the NCAA tournament because they win the conference tournament. They
were not going to get there without winning that conference tournament.
But you know, obviously loses some of the players from
that team. He's done a really good job so far,
and you talked about a change just in philosophy, tempo.
All of that thirty seventh nationally in points per game
eighty six point three points per game from this team.
They're shooting forty nine point six percent from the field,
which is very impressive. You know, that's a top thirty
mark nationally. So you know, my number here, Rob came
out really close. I was I was three and a half.
I believe it maybe up to four and a half now,
So you know, possibly a little bit of value I
said I would. I would definitely say as far as
home teams, at least that we've discussed so far, and
a lot of the ones I've seen on the slate today,
this might be one of the more bargain numbers you're
gonna get in like the home team spot.
Speaker 2: You know, Dayton.
Speaker 1: Really nice win for them over the weekend, beating George Washington,
a team that a lot of people think is the
team to beat in the A ten, or at least
one of them. But you know, I just don't know
how I wasn't super high on this Dayton team in
the non conference. You know, that loss to Liberty, not
that Liberty is a bad team, but that was at
that was a home game for Dayton. That's still a
bad loss. So they've come out of the gate hot
in conference play, beat Fordham, beat loyal Loyola Chicago, who's
been playing better, and then the big win over George Washington.
Speaker 2: But I'm still not all the way in on Dayton.
Speaker 1: And so you know, looking at the three wins to
start conference play, you come off the big win over
George Washington. I don't hate Dukine on the you know,
in this spot plus the four and a half, not
gonna no real opinion for me on the total, but
I wouldn't argue with you guys. So for me just
to give a little bit of a side opinion here
now that it's moved to four and a half, and
if it gets I don't think it's gonna get higher
than that. I'm looking at some of the Sharper books.
I think it's probably gonna top out at four and
a half. But like there's a little value there with
Dukine at home coming off of the ot Road loss,
they come back home where they've played better. I'll lean
that way. Dukane plus four and a half would be
my opinion on this one. I just figured out how
to auto star the super chat. So that's that's a
you know, rob a big development for me. Back here
on the back end, there is a someone's like I
did a super chat. First of all, like a week ago,
I didn't even know what a super chat was, and
now I realized I can auto star it.
Speaker 2: So they come up.
Speaker 1: So someone's still gonna have to explain to me what
a superchat is. What I believe it is is like
whoever like subscribe to the channel, or like maybe they
subscribe to the wager talk YouTube channels, So what a
great promo to subscribe to the wager talk YouTube channel.
And again maybe that's not it. But I figured out
how to auto star the super chat. And my guy Truman,
who I got to meet and we went to the
North Texas game last Weekend has come through with a
starred super chat and he says, Trick, are you trying
to be subliminal by wearing your Grand Canyon gear? Grand
Canyons getting plus seven and a half at New Mexico
feels like this one will be much closer than that.
Speaker 2: Truman. Yeah, I always kind of am a little bit.
Speaker 1: I did throw the Grand Canyon sweatshirt on that I
got when I was in Phoenix last year. Actually did
both of these schools on the same trip. I did
them a day apart. I was in Albuquerque on Friday night.
For what a place. What a place. The pit is
rob They deserve all the marks for home Court. But Truman,
I'm with you. I this number is a little bit
I think I think we're getting a little bit inflated.
Speaker 2: On New Mexico at this point.
Speaker 1: It opened eight. I haven't bet this yet. I really wanted,
I really kind of want that eight. There's a couple more,
a couple of the public books if you will to
be more square shops or at eight and a half
on this so I'm kind of like hoping it goes
to eight or eight and a half.
Speaker 2: If it does, I will likely lock this in for clients.
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be my parlay leg but
I'm gonna like reserve the right to like decide that
at the end of the show. But Rob, I kind
of think that this is a little bit inflated. I
love what Eric Ollen is doing at New Mexico, but
this is not Richard Patino. This is not last year's
New Mexico team. And Grand Canyon I wasn't like overly
high on coming into the season, but I think they're
starting to play better, and to me, like eight is
a lot and what I kind of think is a
competitive game. So, uh, Grand Cany, New Mexico a little
Mountain West for you. What do you what are you
see in here?
Speaker 3: Yeah? What I see, Adam is maybe a pushback on
this total. Uh, it's been bed up, and it's been
bed up significantly at this point. Maybe a little bit
too much m a little bit too much support for
the New Mexico offense at home here. I would figure,
you know, anytime New Mexico is in the pit, and
this is just historical, this isn't just this year. Anytime
they're in the pit, the initial thought is they'll score. Here,
it's going from one thirty nine and a half all
the way to one forty four and a half. And
the only reason why I bring that up as being
possibly too high is these two teams. The best asset
for both of them is their defenses. Grand Canyon is
not a terrific shooting team, especially from the perimeter. Like
you can you can contained them from the outside. This year.
You got to deal with them a little bit inside
the arc and maybe mid range and maybe getting some
cheap buckets. But Bryce Drew is not playing an overly
quick pace, maybe somewhere right in the middle moderate pace.
New Mexico a phenomenal defensive team so far this season,
twenty seventh in defensive adjusted raiding and by the way,
Gray Kenya twenty ninth, So both doing the job here.
But New Mexico since they've hit conference season, here's the
point I want to make. Since they've hit conference season
a mountain where San Jose State scored sixty five, Boise
State scored sixty two, Wyoming fifty eight. Colorado State did
the best seventy. And that's a phenomenal shooting team. Colorado
State one of the best in the nation as far
as effective field goal percentage, true shooting, percentage anywhere on
the floor, two point three point free throw. Colorado State
is all of that they get the seventy Air Force
gets forty nine. I'm just not sure Grand Canyon is
gonna put up a bunch. I don't know that New
Mexico will put up the numbers that they've put up
so far. Again, I'll use somewhat of a comp game here,
and I'll use the Boise State game, which for New
Mexico was played away from home. But to me, Boise
State moderate pace, pretty good defense, Grand Canyon moderate pace,
really good defense. That Boise State game against New Mexico
only got to one fifteen. It was an entire rock
fight for forty minutes. I can see it happen. I
just think this number is gone the wrong direction where
total is concerned. So for me, I probably will get
there too with under one forty four and a half
in this game, because I don't see each side getting
seventy two here. You know you need seventy three seventy two.
In fact, the way the game is lined, let's just
do the math in our heads real quick. The way
this game is lined, you're looking at seventy six to
sixty nine to win. I'm not so sure it gets
that high. So Under doesn't come out of my mouth
an awful lot Adams. So when I'm looking at Under,
it's probably it probably looks really good to me, So
I would look that way in that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean listen, like New Mexico, the pit you're
you're always gonna get.
Speaker 2: I'm always gonna give full marks for the pit. I
I got to go to the Boise State game last year.
Speaker 1: First of all New Mexico in terms of like rolling
out the red carpet for Trig, they were as as
good as it gets. I mean, they let me mess
around in the tunnel like they just they they they
really like rolled out the red car and their fans
are incredible. That the New Mexico fan base as as
good as I've ever encountered any place I've been.
Speaker 2: Awesome people. They had me right on the floor.
Speaker 1: Someone basically like tackled me during the game, like just
out of excitement because they ran Boise.
Speaker 2: Out of the building in that game.
Speaker 1: I love the whole vibe of the pit and I
really Eric Ollen, of course comes from some UC Sandy.
Speaker 2: I think he's almost ahead of schedule.
Speaker 1: I thought that this would be more of a rebuilding
year for him, because if you look at those early
UC San Diego teams, I mean, you know, it took
a while for him to get that that very unique
style in place. And I figured, okay, now you're, yeah,
you're bringing Albery and you're you know, you have some
guys coming with you. But like doing it at a
higher level in a bigger conference might be a little
bit of a rebuild. And they've come out and start
I think four and one in league play. Some of
that maybe they've caught the easier part of their schedule
so far. So I think you have to look at
the four and one start for New Mexico New Mexico
and say, okay, they did catch some of the bottom
half of the league, you know, Grand King And though
the reason I like them plus eight here Rob is
I just don't think we've even seen like this was
never going to be last year's team, no Tying Grant Foster,
no Duke Brennan. It was always going to be a
little bit of a different team for Bryce Drew. But
Bryce Drew can coach. We know that the ross is
still pretty good just across the board. It's not like
he was showing up. Like I came into the season
thinking Grand Canyon would actually surprise folks in this league,
thinking they would be one of the better teams in
the conference. And in the reality, I think is just
it's taken a little bit of time for him to
sort of like get this team playing the way he
wants this team to play. The big one for me
is Dusty Stromer like really hasn't been nearly as good
as I thought he was going to be. He comes
over from Gonzaga, wasn't didn't get a ton of playing
time for Gonzaga, But I thought that was a really
good get for them. I thought he might be the
best player on the team or one of the biggest contributors,
and he really just hasn't been yet. But twelve points
last time out against San Jose State. That's very encouraging.
You know, they just have a lot of pieces, I
like to the point where you know, these two this
would probably be the easiest road trip for one of
the easier road trips in conference for Grand Canyon. Think
it took me about six hours to get from Phoenix
to albat So maybe you do get some Grand Canyon
bands that want to go check out the pit. The
point is, even though the New Mexico team I give
them the full marks at home, it's still not Boise State.
It's still not Utah State. It's still not like San
Diego State. So part of me thinks rob that maybe
they take Grand Canyon just to tad for granted here
and the Lopes are in this game start to finish,
so I like.
Speaker 2: The points here. It very well may be my parlay leg.
Speaker 1: If I get that extra point point, you know, the
point I want on the number, I may fire it
out for clients again.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be stubborn here at seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Most places i'd love eight and a half, like where
you know, I wanted a full I think I made
the number six, so I really wanted that full two
point edge to make it a client play.
Speaker 2: But if not, we'll probably use it for the parlay.
Speaker 1: I think the the Lopes are gonna be competitive at
the pit tonight, who knows, maybe even pull up the
out maybe even pull off the outright upset win. All right,
let's get back to the chat. Truman says he locked
it in plus eight, bought the half point. Yeah, we'll
uh well, we'll we'll I think you're gonna have a
winner there. Like I said, it'll be it'll be hard
for me to go the rest of the day and
stay off of that game, because you know I'd have
to have serious discipline to do that. We'll see, all right,
Shane says, I actually clicked on the wrong comment, but
you know what we're gonna We're gonna let it. We're
gonna play it where it lies. Rob, I clicked on
the wrong comment. But who cares well? He Shane is
talking to buy you in the chat. He says, why
do you think Minnesota wins tonight?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: By you is gonna give his opinion in the chat,
but we'll we'll talk about this game because I think
it's this very intriguing game. I think Wisconsin, uh deserves
a little spot on the show today, Rob, after that
massive performance over the weekend knocking off Michigan.
Speaker 2: Didn't think it was possible, but they got it done.
Speaker 1: Do you think this is like the flat turnaround spot
for the Badgers here having to go play Minnesota the
barn in a you know, kind of coming off the
Michigan win, and now you get Nico Medved who's probably
as good as preparing for a team as anyone, Wisconsin, Minnesota,
what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the ultimate right, the ultimate flat spot. However,
the other side of that is that was a turning
point for Wisconsin. You know watching that game now again,
I watched it because I had a vested interest in
the Michigan team total that day over ninety three and
a half, they got to eighty eight. The second half
started out like crap. I mean, Wisconsin can't shoot any
better than they shot to start that second half. Michigan
can't shoot any better than they shot to start that
second half. Points were flying all over the place, and
when push came to shove, Wisconsin d'ed up Michigan. I mean,
some of the Michigan stuff was wide open. I have
to say that, and maybe Wisconsin a little bit fortunate
it that Michigan missed a few great ball movement open threes.
Client you know, I remember the commentary during that game
was the basketball guards are supposed to let that one
go in because the ball movement was so great, But
it didn't. And Wisconsin continue to make theirs. Hey, Greg guard,
they have a style now. I think when you watch
them play Adam it's it's a good basketball team. The
fact that they struggled early stems from the defensive end.
Nico Medved, we see I go in spurts, right, I think, well,
he's turning a corner with this team, and he probably is.
But then the reality hits me that, you know what,
he's just not working with an awful lot up there
right now. Fundamentally, you obviously want Wisconsin here. Situationally, you
want Minnesota home team catching a team off a monster win.
It probably scares me off, but I am somewhat interested
in the fact that this total started so low and
as bumped up to one forty six and a half.
You know, Wisconsin really at this point in time, they're
not going to revert back to what they used to be.
And I don't know that Nico Medved can stop them
from being the uptempo three point shooting type team that
they are. What could stop Wisconsin is they miss shots,
which they didn't do the other day. And we know
that that that's cyclical. Right When you shoot as good
as Wisconsin's shot, it's coming back at some point in time.
Does it comeback here tonight? And they miss a lot
of the stuff they made against Michigan. Possibly, do they
show the one hundred percent maximum effort that they gave
on Saturday. Maybe not. I know that this is kind
of a rivalry game, but you know, one and a
half is not enough to tempt me towards Minnesota. One
six and a half. You know, I wouldn't want to
play it any higher than that, but very very slightly
towards over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean toward the over as well.
Speaker 1: I just Medved has been a guy I've loved for years,
always bumped his Colorado State teams way up just because
of him his ability to prepare for just about any opponent.
I think the way that plays out here is his
team's able to run some offense and put some points
on the board. But like you, Rob, I you know
my number came in pretty much right on the nose
had Wisconsin minus two and a half, So I guess that,
you know, if this gets bat down any further, maybe
I show a little bit of value on Wisconsin. But again,
I do think the turnaround from a win, the magnitude
of the Michigan win and then having to go on
the road is potentially real a little bit like Minnesota.
I don't think the USC loss was a bad loss.
I know they took a bunch of money, but you know, USC,
like I would still think it's probably a better team
than Minnesota if they've got all their parts, And it
was just a kind of a desperate spot for USC.
They win a one point game, so I don't I don't, like,
really fault them for that loss. And you go back
before that, I think Minnesota had five straight wins. They
have a nice win over Indiana, so again, a lot
too like I think so far about Minnesota and about
the job Medvet has done. So yeah, for me, I
can't I can't bet Minnesota at that number. I don't
think I can bet Wisconsin given the spot and the setup.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I think I got a lean toward I think I
got a lean toward the over. If I were to
play that game, it would have to be the over.
Speaker 3: All.
Speaker 1: Right, we have a couple, so we've got a couple
of donations, so we're gonna hit those games and then
we'll get Rob's parlay le again, we'll lock in the
parlay so we'll go a little quicker through these last couple.
But let's get D. D. Serna In nineteen eighty seven.
I don't know if that's the year you were born.
If it is, we're close to the same age. I'm
eighty six, which means I'll be the Big four. Oh
next year, Rob, I'll be forty in July. People still
think I'm a child. No, I'll be forty in July.
We have we have a We're gonna go to the
SEC for decerna. He says, Alabama Mississippi State looks like
the dog is taking money. Yeah, it does look that way.
I gotta say I kind of disagree a little bit here.
Nate Oates has owned Chris Jans in this matchup since
the two have gotten to the SEC together, and I
gotta be honest, I did not see that result coming
for Alabama at all over the weekend. So one where
I do see that the money creeping in. I don't
know if I can necessarily play against it. But I
also don't think I want Mississippi State here here. They
have not been a team I've been super high on
this year.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: What do you think Bama Mississippi State SEC basketball tonight?
Speaker 3: Well, I think everything about this line move Adam is
because right Sel probably doesn't play here. Unlikely to play.
So when you're without the trail Rightzel Junior, it's a
big part of the offense. So you go ahead and
you handicap it without him, and I still, even without him,
Alabama still is gonna have a ton of firepower, right.
I Mean it hurts them a little bit, but they're
gonna play the same way. They're gonna play with the firepower.
But if you're wondering why Mississippi State is taking money,
I would say to you that don't. Don't look at
this as if it's a play on Mississippi State because
of the matchup or anything. Fundamentally, look at it as
injury chasers betting a line down because right Cell Junior
is not playing and then handicap it from there.
Speaker 1: Yeah again, I wish I I wish I had more
to kind of offer on that one.
Speaker 2: I for me, like, I'm just not gonna bet against Alabama.
Speaker 1: I know, I know, right sales injury probably matters, But
like a it's a deep team. I trust NATO's Outside
of Hubbard, I don't really like this Mississippi State team
at all. They were a team that came up quite
a few times in non conference play where we had
a discussion about the game and then they just looked awful.
So wow, this is this has gone, This has gone
further than I thought. Is it four and a half?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 3: It is fun and a half, Adam, And it's funny.
I just kind of laugh when you said that because
outside of Josh Huppard there is no Mississippi State.
Speaker 2: And yeah, this is.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, at that point, I don't see. Let's
put it this way. You cannot take Mississippi State at
the current number. That would be a massive mistake in
my opinion. You got an Alabama team. We know Nate
Oates doesn't f around. For lack of a better, you
know way to describe, you know, the way Nate Oates
approaches things. They've lost back to back games to Vandy
and then maybe a little bit of a hangover over
the weekend against what again was a Texas team that
was extremely desperate and very do to play well. Right
like Texas, they had to have a good one at
some point because they had played so poorly that the
previous couple games. I would lay that small number with Alabama,
I don't. That's not my style, rob to like lay
points after a side has been slammed.
Speaker 2: But like, to me, like four and a half is
way too big of a move. I don't care.
Speaker 1: I don't care who's out for Alabama because that's a
deep team. They have ten plus guys that can play,
and they have the far better coach in my opinion,
So it has to be Bama or passed for me
right there.
Speaker 3: And really quick, just that point, you know, right sale
Junion didn't play in that Texas game and they still
got to eighty eight without him, So that just reinforces
the point we're both trying to make about there's enough
firepower here to continue on to march on without him.
He makes a difference, but I don't know, like it's
a Mississippi State defense that's horrendous. I don't know that
it means as much as this three point move or
this move. You're probably getting a bargain price on the
total as well. Up I'll look at the Alabama team
total here, but we can move on quick.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Our chat is very intelligent.
Speaker 1: I see a couple of people saying, like, you know,
they're they're at Bamba minus seven. I think that's where
I was personally, Bamba minus seven. I have to find
it in my notes, but I was I was Bama
minus six and a half, which is why I didn't
have much interest on the open. But if you're gonna
give me like four or four and a half, like,
I just don't think that they're like such a different
team with one or even with one or two guys out,
it's still a really deep.
Speaker 2: Team that can play.
Speaker 1: So lean lean Bama to me right there, Let's go
to this one and then we'll give you the floor
for your parlay. Garth asked thoughts on Boston College team
total over fifty nine and a half. Well, my thought
on Boston College. I played against them this weekend, but
I thought, I guess I thought Louisville was gonna come
out with like their pants on fire and just like
hit a trillion threes and run Boston College out of
the gym. I think that final being only like a
twelve point win for Louisville is more of a reflection
of where Louisville is at right now than BC. I've
actually been sort of pleasantly surprised that BC can function
a little bit. Rob I didn't think they were going
to be a very functional team, but they've looked okay,
they played okay against NC State. I thought they did
fine against Louisville. That being said, I have no interest
backing him on the road again here, So talk to Garth.
Do you have any interest in the team total?
Speaker 3: It's so low that you're always tempted. I can't do it.
Clemson's defensive numbers inside acc play even a couple before that,
They're just not giving up these numbers. They're just not
every game they play, it's like very low sixties. BC's
a miserable offense. They play at slow tempo. Clemson's going
to be able to do what they want to do
where tempo's concerned, unless they were disinterested Adam, and the
look ahead for Clemson is Miami of Florida. If you
think Clemson's pointing towards Miami on and maybe this is
just a lackluster effort, then I would say go ahead
and bet over fifty nine and a half. If you
don't think that Clemson is all that worrying about extra
game prep for Miami, then they probably lock BC down.
Fifty nine and a half is a very tough number
to beit under with, so I wouldn't recommend it, but
it's hard for me to get to the over.
Speaker 2: I think you could see your points, Garth.
Speaker 1: It feels like a spot where maybe Clemson isn't just
like trying to, you know, pull the team to fifty,
wipe a team off the face of the earth.
Speaker 2: Like they've had a couple of games.
Speaker 1: They've had some big time games lately SMU and then
and then the big effort against Notre Dame. I kind
of buy into that a little bit, Rob, that they
might look ahead and you know, they may let BC
hang around a little bit here. They probably still win
the game fifteen and a half point favorite, but you
have money to the over, money to BC. If I
was to trust one of those moves more than the other,
I think I trust the total move because again, Boston College,
I feel like, can fall apart, and it's another road game.
They just had to play at Louisville and really gave
a big effort in that game. In the Louisville game,
that was a close game for a long period of time,
Louisville kind of pulled away at the end. So I
think I leaned toward the over. That's the way I
would look, all right, Rob Veno, I'm going to you,
I am going to use Grand Canyon for the parlay leg.
Speaker 2: I'll take Grand Canyon at whatever the number is, the
floor is yours. Who are you looking at for the parlor.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go first game on the board here, Adam,
I'm gonna play the Villanova team total over eighty and
a half. Fundamental reasoning behind that Providence cannot defend the three.
Villanova is an excellent three point shooting team. Really quick,
I had this circle ready to go for my leg
of the parlay here quotes from Kim English, and I
know again. I'll just revert back to the beginning of
the year when you had a little bit of inside
that said, maybe the guys don't play well together better?
Speaker 2: Did you see that?
Speaker 1: I texted you this morning, Rob. I don't know if
you read your text yet. I'll gave you like some
inside on this game, so I'm you you can go ahead.
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I'll go back and look. But it is it's not
good on the Providence defensive end, which is why I'm
choosing Villanova team total over here, Kim English, we're not
doing a good enough job delivering the message to this
team about what it takes to defend three point shooters.
It's been a consistent trend this season. We've got to
do a better job of teaching and preparing and getting
the message across. We're lacking the integrity to compete in
this league on a night to night basis. They did
compete against Yukon right. Yukon came out and maybe Yukon
disregarded Providence a little bit, but Providence came out and
took a huge lead. Yukon came back, came back late,
I think eleven point deficit in the last three minutes,
pushed it to overtime. But bottom line here, because we
are pressed for time, the Providence team just has not
listened to the head coach where defensive defense is concerned,
especially be on the arc. It fits hand in glove
with what Villanova likes to do. And again I'll throw
in a comp game which I went to this morning.
When I went and played this game, Villanova went to Butler,
which is even a better three point defense than Providence.
They're not a good defense by any stretch of the imagination,
but they're a better three point defense. And Villanova walked
away scoring eighty five points against Butler. So you have
to sometimes disregard tempo. I know the argument back at
me would be, but Rob, Villanova doesn't go fast, But
when you can be efficient, then fast really doesn't matter.
And I just see Villanova doing what's right here, making
their threes against a Providence team that maybe has tuned
out to coach Adam. I'm not sure Kim English didn't
have a long tenure in Missouri either, But we'll see
how this one goes. I like Villanova over eighty and
a half. We have to get to eighty one here.
Like I say they got to eighty five at Butler,
I think they can get to eighty one at Providence.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna read the text from my buddy
that is close to the program, that's kind of fed
us some Providence info this year. So I asked him
this morning, is Jamiir Jones in? Of course, Jamir Jones
did not play last game for Providence. It it very
much mattered he he's you know, if he doesn't play,
Nova may even have some more easy points in there.
I think he's probably been playing as good as any
of the Friars. I think he had you know, six
or seven games and double figures prior to not playing
against Xavier. He had a double double a couple of
games ago. So yeah, him being out. He didn't even
answer my question. He didn't even answer my question. He
just responded with this team threw in the towel. I
was at the Xavier game this weekend. The blown game
to Yukon is going to result on the spiral, I said,
I said, is Jones out?
Speaker 2: I said, he's out?
Speaker 1: I like Nova still didn't answer my question. He said
one of the most ill conceived roster constructions.
Speaker 2: Of all time.
Speaker 1: So that is that this is a guy that's very
close to Providence, was at the Xavier game over the
weekend that that really like knows kind of he has
a good pulse on Providence basketball.
Speaker 2: So that should not make you feel good about Providence.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what right now, if I can
confirm Jones is out, I may have to get involved
with with the Nova side. Rob What was your exact
bet for the parlay, because we are going to recap
it right now.
Speaker 3: It's over Phillanova team total over eighty and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean listen, if Jones is out and you're
missing like that key guy in the front court, they
may not even need to make all their threes because
they actually might have some easier buckets than they would
normally if they were playing at you know, a Providence
team at full strength. So I like the Nova side there.
Rob is going to go Nova Team total over eight
and eighty and a half for one leg of the parlay.
The other leg is going to be Grand Canyon plus
seven and a half. That's what it is in the
market right now. If that gets to eight or eight
and have you may see it on the client card.
And obviously to get the client card, head on over
to wager talk dot com. Rob and I have a
great special up that gets you all of our plays
for a three day period.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you guys for tuning in. Good luck on
your bets today.
Speaker 1: Remember it's five dollars Tuesday at wager talk and we'll
see you guys back here in the morning.