Speaker 1: What that starts to tell me is that the average
consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck, but they're
living credit card payment to credit card payment. And after
thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that
more supply chain issues are going to be at all helpful,
and it could be again a sort of straw that
breaks the camels back.
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Speaker 1: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz, and with us
today is to thatcher, noted financial expert and Ted. It's
great to have you back on.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: I guess the topic, de jure. What's on everybody's mind
right now is the port strike in the East and
evidently evidently it's the entire East coast. Whether it's a
right to work state or not doesn't seem to matter.
They're all on strike here. Absolutely, Carrie, It's great to
be with you, And honestly, I think it's unfortunate to see. Right,
we just have gotten through and we all remember everything
that happened with the supply chain from COVID's consequences and
then of course the ship when it was stuck in
that straight in the Middle East, and the first and
second and third order consequences that happened with that. Given
the incredible amount of inflation we've seen the last couple
of years, I don't think we need an even bigger
supply chain pressure. But on our country, as you know,
the average American is really who's going to field on
the front of this, and certainly the middle class.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Sure, and well there isn't much redundancy in the system.
I guess they can get stuff into California and ship it,
but that's not really going to make up the slack,
will it. No. I think that basically. I mean, we'll
see how quickly this all comes to a head, and
if they're able to resolve it quickly or not. I
think it's really interesting just I sort of the almost
lack of political pressure there is to really bring this
to ahead, even though it's such a you know, young strike.
We were hearing about it last week, at the potential
of it, and I just feel like that there's more
that can be done. But the problem is is, I think,
when you look at this at the broader level, what
does it do to the well broader economy? The question
I've been getting constantly is, well, ted, how's the economy doing?
And of course there's just so many ways to measure
it j And I think, maybe, yeah, well, there's so
many people will just look at the stock market and
they'll say, hey, the market's up. I mean, it must
be great. But of course, and least in my opinion,
there's no way to measure how the economy is doing
here in the US without looking at the average American consumer.
And if we look at that consumer, they are having
they have a trillion dollars in credit card debt. You know,
they can't come up with a thousand dollars expense or
they'll for you know, cover a cover one thousand dollars
expense without you know, dipping into their credit cards. And ultimately,
what that starts to tell me is that the average
consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck but they're
living credit card payment to credit card payment, and after
thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that
more supply chain issues are you know, going to be
at all helpful. And it could be again a sort
of straw that breaks the camels back, as if we
needed another plus with what's going on in the Middle East,
let's not overlook that and potential to increase the price
of oil, although we haven't seen a huge spike up yet,
but seems kind of inevitable if things escalate out of
control here. It doesn't intend well. The price of energy
absolutely contributes to the inflationary issues again and again, and
I completely agree that it's well after what's happened in
the last couple of years, the Biden administration lowering and
lowering artificially the price of oil through you know, the
release of the United States energy reserves, that becomes an
even bigger issue to consider. And and so then you know,
you think about what the FED has done right started
this lowering interest rate cycle that you know, if they're
not careful, is going to have more instillationary pressure. And
all these other things ultimately tell me that it's interesting
to think that we're going to be able to have
this quote unquote soft landing the way we all you know,
would I guess like sounds more like a crash landing. Huh,
I would say so. I mean I think the other
way I think about this too, is when we think
about the stock market hitting these you know, near all
time highs or all time highs, and then we see
everything that's actually happening on the ground on Main Street.
There's just unbelievable discrepancy between what's happening on Wall Street
and what is happening on Main Street. And unfortunately, given
the unbelievably powerful hand that this fed that wields, if
they're committed to lowering and lowering rates, I just don't
see a world where that doesn't get further and further
and further stretched out. And then we have to think about,
you know, the sort of well, if you want to
say crash landing, that it gets created because of that.
It's almost like if they are committed to this direction,
that there's almost going to be a melt up potentially
before there's a crashdown, oh for sure. And the melt
up is just the flip side of that. So how
do you protect yourself. How do you stop them from
destroying all your wealth. Well, you have to own assets
at the end of the day. That can be sir,
on the precious muddles, that can be at home, that
can be you know, a financial assets. The truth is is,
if the FED really is going to lower rates, they're
at the highest point they've been at, you know, up
until you know, two weeks ago, for thirty five years
haven't been this high, and so almost to me at least,
regardless of who's president, right or wrong, if the Fed's
going to commit to lower all the way down to
back maybe even below three percent, that is going to
have an unbelievably heavy handed upward consequence on the financial markets.
And again, right or wrong, that's going to be the
way I think that you're going to try to preserve
some wealth here. Now, we could talk about strategic plays.
You know, I've been I've got a lot of people
that have said, hey, big tech is way over extended.
We want to keep doubling and tripling down on Nvidia.
You know, maybe not, but at the end of the day,
you know, the FED is the central Bank of the
United States of America. It is the most powerful financial
entity in the world and arguably in all of history.
And so if they're going to commit we've all heard
that phrase, don't fight the Fed that it Teeter Totter
is now headed in the opposite direction. Yeah, So so
we thinking about gold at this point, we're thinking about
the cryptocurrencies, or as I'd like to endearingly call them, kleptocurrencies, cleptocurrency.
I like that. Well, gold has been on an absolute
terror I think, you know, precious metals have been a
huge hedge against inflation, and gold has been at the
top of that list. I do think it's interesting right
now if you look at where silver is at, there
is I think an interesting play to be made there.
It seems from a lot of different analytics I've looked
at poised to also go up in a similar fashion
as gold had. I do also think, I mean, this
is much more of like a strategic bet kind of play,
because we did hear so much about that Teeter Totter
the last couple of years between the you know, the
FED and the Federal funds rate and bond values, that
inverse relationship that they have. You know, if you believe
the Fed is going to keep lowering interest rates, it
could be time to get on the other side of
that teeter totter and maybe try to look at some
long term bonds. I've had some conversations about even leveraged
long term treasury bond funds. There's this one fund called
TMNF that we've looked at, or I've looked at a
couple times. Basically it's twenty year treasuries, but just triple leveraged.
And so, you know, obviously, given everything that's happened this
week with the strike, treasuries are actually you know, going up,
which is you know, certainly a negative consequence in the
short term for a fund like that, But if the
overall macroeconomic trend is for the FED to lower rates,
that's definitely a kind of holding that would jelly, you know, perform. Well, okay,
we'll buy it, and I guess we'll have to have
you on next month to go over whatever happens with
the election, and uh, you know, we're in silly season here,
although the debates that have been have been definitely the
ratings hog of this this month sweeps or this quarter
sweeps as we used to call them. Just you know,
I'm not even gonna bother to ask you what you
think the outcome of the election will be. We don't
really talk politics, we talk economics, but certainly when you
throw that into the mix, more geopolitical instability in in
the Middle East, in you know, in Ukraine, Russia, China,
India there now China and India. Pretty soon North Korea
kick up because they don't like being ignored. Throwing that
all into the mix, it really creates a lot of
uncertainty and a lot of people looking for defensive you know,
both holes, financial, both holes, right, they're there trying to
well stop the leaks, right, And I mean, I agree,
I tend to be much more of a financial person
than ever a political one. But I think you're absolutely,
you know, more than correct to point out the nuance
and interesting nature of this election. We have a former
president who's running again and has been There's been what
two assassination attempts now on Trump, while of course everything
that's happened with you know, Biden stepping down and you know,
Kamala Harris replacing him and his position, I don't think
there's been an election like this maybe to be Onta.
Ever gotta wonder, you gotta wonder, I mean, it's just
the insanity of it all. And yet you're supposed to
try to stay rational and the keep things going here.
I don't know how you do it here that I
really don't. No, I think that way, the average person
is put into a very very precarious situation. Most average
Americans don't have enough time to go to their job
and spend time with other family much less, you know,
figure out a sophisticated strategy for their money across one
of the most volatile times certainly in the last several decades.
And so you know, ultimately we got to watch out
for the sort of well, the precarious nature of the
world we're living in today. I was having a conversation
earlier this week and just a simple you know takeaway
being it's just a much more of a volatile time
than it was ten years ago when the markets were
just steady eddy things are pretty you know, just kind
of bland, and now it's we have a depth of
dealing crisis, and then we have all this political strife,
and we have the war in Ukraine and terror attacks
in Israel and conflict in the Middle East, and inflation
and interest rates, and you know there's going to be
another thing, you know, the strike, Right, that's the next one.
What's going to happen at for that, Well, that's probably
going to happen, Probably going to be more questions coming
into November. All right, I think we'll leave it at that. Ted,
just tell us where do we find you again? How
do we connect with you on the web? Sure? Absolutely.
Our website's Brightlakewealth dot com. Thanks Carrie, all right, and
the links in the show notes to this interview on
Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there, make sure
you sign up for your free newsletter. And you've got
a question for Ted or myself, shoot me an email
kl atcarriets dot com. Ted again, thank you for stopping by.
We'll talk to you again. Sem Hey, thanks so much, Jerry.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie. Let's this Financial Survival Network
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
than ever,