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Speaker 1: What that starts to tell me is that the average

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consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck, but they're

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living credit card payment to credit card payment. And after

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thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that

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more supply chain issues are going to be at all helpful,

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and it could be again a sort of straw that

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breaks the camels back.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 1: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz, and with us

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today is to thatcher, noted financial expert and Ted. It's

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great to have you back on.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 1: I guess the topic, de jure. What's on everybody's mind

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right now is the port strike in the East and

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evidently evidently it's the entire East coast. Whether it's a

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right to work state or not doesn't seem to matter.

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They're all on strike here. Absolutely, Carrie, It's great to

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be with you, And honestly, I think it's unfortunate to see. Right,

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we just have gotten through and we all remember everything

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that happened with the supply chain from COVID's consequences and

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then of course the ship when it was stuck in

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that straight in the Middle East, and the first and

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second and third order consequences that happened with that. Given

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the incredible amount of inflation we've seen the last couple

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of years, I don't think we need an even bigger

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supply chain pressure. But on our country, as you know,

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the average American is really who's going to field on

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the front of this, and certainly the middle class.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Sure, and well there isn't much redundancy in the system.

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I guess they can get stuff into California and ship it,

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but that's not really going to make up the slack,

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will it. No. I think that basically. I mean, we'll

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see how quickly this all comes to a head, and

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if they're able to resolve it quickly or not. I

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think it's really interesting just I sort of the almost

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lack of political pressure there is to really bring this

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to ahead, even though it's such a you know, young strike.

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We were hearing about it last week, at the potential

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of it, and I just feel like that there's more

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that can be done. But the problem is is, I think,

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when you look at this at the broader level, what

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does it do to the well broader economy? The question

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I've been getting constantly is, well, ted, how's the economy doing?

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And of course there's just so many ways to measure

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it j And I think, maybe, yeah, well, there's so

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many people will just look at the stock market and

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they'll say, hey, the market's up. I mean, it must

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be great. But of course, and least in my opinion,

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there's no way to measure how the economy is doing

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here in the US without looking at the average American consumer.

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And if we look at that consumer, they are having

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they have a trillion dollars in credit card debt. You know,

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they can't come up with a thousand dollars expense or

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they'll for you know, cover a cover one thousand dollars

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expense without you know, dipping into their credit cards. And ultimately,

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what that starts to tell me is that the average

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consumer isn't not just living paycheck to paycheck but they're

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living credit card payment to credit card payment, and after

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thinking about the inflationary consequences, I just don't think that

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more supply chain issues are you know, going to be

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at all helpful. And it could be again a sort

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of straw that breaks the camels back, as if we

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needed another plus with what's going on in the Middle East,

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let's not overlook that and potential to increase the price

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of oil, although we haven't seen a huge spike up yet,

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but seems kind of inevitable if things escalate out of

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control here. It doesn't intend well. The price of energy

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absolutely contributes to the inflationary issues again and again, and

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I completely agree that it's well after what's happened in

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the last couple of years, the Biden administration lowering and

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lowering artificially the price of oil through you know, the

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release of the United States energy reserves, that becomes an

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even bigger issue to consider. And and so then you know,

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you think about what the FED has done right started

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this lowering interest rate cycle that you know, if they're

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not careful, is going to have more instillationary pressure. And

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all these other things ultimately tell me that it's interesting

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to think that we're going to be able to have

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this quote unquote soft landing the way we all you know,

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would I guess like sounds more like a crash landing. Huh,

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I would say so. I mean I think the other

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way I think about this too, is when we think

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about the stock market hitting these you know, near all

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time highs or all time highs, and then we see

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everything that's actually happening on the ground on Main Street.

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There's just unbelievable discrepancy between what's happening on Wall Street

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and what is happening on Main Street. And unfortunately, given

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the unbelievably powerful hand that this fed that wields, if

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they're committed to lowering and lowering rates, I just don't

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see a world where that doesn't get further and further

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and further stretched out. And then we have to think about,

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you know, the sort of well, if you want to

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say crash landing, that it gets created because of that.

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It's almost like if they are committed to this direction,

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that there's almost going to be a melt up potentially

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before there's a crashdown, oh for sure. And the melt

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up is just the flip side of that. So how

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do you protect yourself. How do you stop them from

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destroying all your wealth. Well, you have to own assets

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at the end of the day. That can be sir,

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on the precious muddles, that can be at home, that

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can be you know, a financial assets. The truth is is,

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if the FED really is going to lower rates, they're

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at the highest point they've been at, you know, up

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until you know, two weeks ago, for thirty five years

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haven't been this high, and so almost to me at least,

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regardless of who's president, right or wrong, if the Fed's

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going to commit to lower all the way down to

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back maybe even below three percent, that is going to

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have an unbelievably heavy handed upward consequence on the financial markets.

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And again, right or wrong, that's going to be the

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way I think that you're going to try to preserve

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some wealth here. Now, we could talk about strategic plays.

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You know, I've been I've got a lot of people

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that have said, hey, big tech is way over extended.

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We want to keep doubling and tripling down on Nvidia.

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You know, maybe not, but at the end of the day,

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you know, the FED is the central Bank of the

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United States of America. It is the most powerful financial

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entity in the world and arguably in all of history.

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And so if they're going to commit we've all heard

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that phrase, don't fight the Fed that it Teeter Totter

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is now headed in the opposite direction. Yeah, So so

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we thinking about gold at this point, we're thinking about

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the cryptocurrencies, or as I'd like to endearingly call them, kleptocurrencies, cleptocurrency.

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I like that. Well, gold has been on an absolute

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terror I think, you know, precious metals have been a

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huge hedge against inflation, and gold has been at the

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top of that list. I do think it's interesting right

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now if you look at where silver is at, there

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is I think an interesting play to be made there.

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It seems from a lot of different analytics I've looked

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at poised to also go up in a similar fashion

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as gold had. I do also think, I mean, this

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is much more of like a strategic bet kind of play,

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because we did hear so much about that Teeter Totter

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the last couple of years between the you know, the

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FED and the Federal funds rate and bond values, that

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inverse relationship that they have. You know, if you believe

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the Fed is going to keep lowering interest rates, it

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could be time to get on the other side of

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that teeter totter and maybe try to look at some

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long term bonds. I've had some conversations about even leveraged

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long term treasury bond funds. There's this one fund called

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TMNF that we've looked at, or I've looked at a

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couple times. Basically it's twenty year treasuries, but just triple leveraged.

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And so, you know, obviously, given everything that's happened this

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week with the strike, treasuries are actually you know, going up,

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which is you know, certainly a negative consequence in the

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short term for a fund like that, But if the

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overall macroeconomic trend is for the FED to lower rates,

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that's definitely a kind of holding that would jelly, you know, perform. Well, okay,

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we'll buy it, and I guess we'll have to have

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you on next month to go over whatever happens with

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the election, and uh, you know, we're in silly season here,

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although the debates that have been have been definitely the

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ratings hog of this this month sweeps or this quarter

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sweeps as we used to call them. Just you know,

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I'm not even gonna bother to ask you what you

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think the outcome of the election will be. We don't

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really talk politics, we talk economics, but certainly when you

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throw that into the mix, more geopolitical instability in in

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the Middle East, in you know, in Ukraine, Russia, China,

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India there now China and India. Pretty soon North Korea

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kick up because they don't like being ignored. Throwing that

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all into the mix, it really creates a lot of

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uncertainty and a lot of people looking for defensive you know,

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both holes, financial, both holes, right, they're there trying to

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well stop the leaks, right, And I mean, I agree,

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I tend to be much more of a financial person

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than ever a political one. But I think you're absolutely,

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you know, more than correct to point out the nuance

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and interesting nature of this election. We have a former

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president who's running again and has been There's been what

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two assassination attempts now on Trump, while of course everything

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that's happened with you know, Biden stepping down and you know,

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Kamala Harris replacing him and his position, I don't think

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there's been an election like this maybe to be Onta.

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Ever gotta wonder, you gotta wonder, I mean, it's just

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the insanity of it all. And yet you're supposed to

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try to stay rational and the keep things going here.

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I don't know how you do it here that I

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really don't. No, I think that way, the average person

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is put into a very very precarious situation. Most average

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Americans don't have enough time to go to their job

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and spend time with other family much less, you know,

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figure out a sophisticated strategy for their money across one

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of the most volatile times certainly in the last several decades.

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And so you know, ultimately we got to watch out

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for the sort of well, the precarious nature of the

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world we're living in today. I was having a conversation

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earlier this week and just a simple you know takeaway

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being it's just a much more of a volatile time

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than it was ten years ago when the markets were

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just steady eddy things are pretty you know, just kind

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of bland, and now it's we have a depth of

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dealing crisis, and then we have all this political strife,

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and we have the war in Ukraine and terror attacks

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in Israel and conflict in the Middle East, and inflation

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and interest rates, and you know there's going to be

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another thing, you know, the strike, Right, that's the next one.

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What's going to happen at for that, Well, that's probably

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going to happen, Probably going to be more questions coming

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into November. All right, I think we'll leave it at that. Ted,

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just tell us where do we find you again? How

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do we connect with you on the web? Sure? Absolutely.

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Our website's Brightlakewealth dot com. Thanks Carrie, all right, and

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the links in the show notes to this interview on

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Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there, make sure

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you sign up for your free newsletter. And you've got

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a question for Ted or myself, shoot me an email

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kl atcarriets dot com. Ted again, thank you for stopping by.

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We'll talk to you again. Sem Hey, thanks so much, Jerry.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie. Let's this Financial Survival Network

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your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go

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to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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