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today and let them know. I Sancho, let's get into
a college football on Cougar Sports segment.
Speaker 1: I want to get in some some metrics.
Speaker 3: I want to know who this Cougar football team has
been over the last three years?
Speaker 1: What if they done well?
Speaker 3: I always say one of my favorite lines from Three
Amigos is.
Speaker 1: What is it that the people have sent the PoCA.
Speaker 3: Really does well? What is it that BYU has really
done well over the last three years? And what do
they need to improve from the last couple of years
to next year? What are we expecting from BAU in
twenty twenty six and beyond. The segment's going to be
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Speaker 3: Let's get out to the hotline. Welcome in one of
my favorite guests. He is a man of metrics. He
gets into the data, He delves into the data to
give us the truth of all things in college football.
Let's welcome at Bill Connley, the creator of sp plus
representing ESPN. What's up, Billing, I'm doing fantastic, Happy off
season to you.
Speaker 1: How is the offseason treated you thus far?
Speaker 4: Bill, Well, I've an updated rosters for sp plus projections,
so it's really there isn't really an off season here,
but certainly not the most demanding work in the world.
Speaker 3: At least there's not like an additional aperture opening of
the transferportal in April, right.
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, So basically it's more work now, but then
in May I won't really have nearly as much as
I did last year.
Speaker 3: That's a good thing. You can go on vacation. To me,
that's a good time to go on vacation.
Speaker 5: In fact, that's where coach that's where coaches go on vacation.
Speaker 6: I know that.
Speaker 1: Yep, that's exactly when they go on vacation.
Speaker 3: So what can we surmise from the two thy twenty
five I know it ended in twenty twenty six final
College Football sp plus rankings for all one hundred and
thirty six FBS teams.
Speaker 1: What takeaways?
Speaker 3: What gems can you derive from the data this year.
Speaker 4: Well, that's possible to recruit at a top forty level
and produce the best team in college football. I think
that was pretty interesting. Yeah, I'm curious when it's time
to kind of update how the projections work. I'm really curious,
you know, having Indiana as high as they were and
then having plenty of other schools Utah, BYU Vanderbilt, just
a ton of schools that aren't necessarily you know, top
ten recruiting powerhouses, but figured out a way to build
a really good team. I think that's really Texas Tech
was in the.
Speaker 6: Top five of US.
Speaker 4: People are so really really interesting things. It's a fun
time to talk about the sport. I know coaches aren't
really enjoying themselves all that much and trying to renegotiate
contracts every other day, but from a pure watching how
guys are going about building rosters, it's really really interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you look at the top twenty five.
Speaker 3: I was in Indiana is like this this outlier, Right,
they don't recruit.
Speaker 1: I think they're like they're twenty four to seven.
Speaker 3: Composite talent rating was like seventy second in the nation, right,
A talented team per se who else stands out to
you with like maybe an underrated, maybe recruiting talent, baseline
talent that overachieved in the top twenty five.
Speaker 4: Well, I will say, I mean as far as Texas
techause everybody knows, you know, how much they spent on
that transfer class, but I think it was really noteworthy
with both Tech and Indiana that yeah, I mean they
brought in talented guys, but everybody produced better at Tech
or at Indiana than in previous stop Tech.
Speaker 5: Like obviously David.
Speaker 4: Bailey was always going to be awesome, but they had
a lot of Romelo height.
Speaker 6: Style guys on their Lee Hunter.
Speaker 4: Guys who had been solid, you know, just sturdy, you know,
college high level college football players, but then they go
to Texas Tech and they were awesome. So I think,
you know, the ability to identify talent, deploy it correctly,
you know, get the most out of it, it still
matters a ton even if they spent twenty whatever a
million dollars on that class, and again this year, they
still got the right guys and that was an immensely
impressive I.
Speaker 3: Got to say that, you know, I feel pretty good
about where BYU's at too. They end up eighteenth in
the sp plus metric. Obviously eight people was pretty high.
I mean, I can't remember where Sagarin had them and
where some of the other metrics had them ranked overall
from an efficiency standpoint, but a great season twelve and two.
They overachieve, it seems every single year, versus the recruiting
and talent pool.
Speaker 1: Why use that, do you think.
Speaker 4: Well, I think, I mean a couple of years ago
they didn't. Obviously they've been swings and sways through the years,
but these last couple of years, yeah, I mean, whatever
it might be, whether it's just really really strong line
play that's been a life hack for the best BYU
teams for a long time. You know, they the defense
held steady. It was twenty first in a defensive sp
plus in twenty twenty four and then twenty second last year.
And the offense, I mean that was, you know, for
very obvious reasons, with a quarterback change over the summer
and bringing in a freshman who hadn't you know, had
started at another.
Speaker 6: School and all that stuff.
Speaker 4: But the fact that you know, the fact that they
improved from thirty to twenty fourth with that with a
young quarterback who they weren't asking to throw down field
a time. They're trying to play a very controlled game,
and it worked and they improved offensively. I think that
was pretty incredible.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is pretty cool to see that, no doubt
about it. And you know, where what is this season
rank all time in BAU football history for their best seasons?
Speaker 1: Would you say.
Speaker 4: They were slightly below where they were in twenty four, which, again,
when you have a freshman quarterback, that's not the.
Speaker 5: You know, that's not a damning thing by any means.
But let's see, let me pull up.
Speaker 3: So what you say, So you think twenty twenty four
was a better team than the twenty twenty five team
per sp plus is what you're saying.
Speaker 6: Per spe plus?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, for all time now we're looking at
a team, the twenty twenty four team. I have them
as the twelfth best BAU team and then twenty twenty
five was a little bit behind that. But no, no, no, no, sorry,
in terms of percent al writings, it was basically tied.
Speaker 6: So they were both in the top twelve overall.
Speaker 4: And you know, Kilane has now had three teams in
the top twelve, including the twenty twenty team, So.
Speaker 5: He's started a little ways to make up there with
on Lavelle Edwards, but he's doing his best.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt about it.
Speaker 3: Over the last three years, which unit of the BYU
football team has been the best unit? Would you say,
per recipe plus offense, defense or special teams?
Speaker 4: In terms of average rankings, it would be Special teams
had they were eleventh two year, in twenty three they
were fourth, and last year they fell the forty fifth.
Speaker 6: But that's still overall.
Speaker 5: A really nice average.
Speaker 4: And if we're looking at three years, both the offense
and defense were dragged down by twenty three. That was
a pretty shaky year overall, obviously not only moving to
the Big twelve, but then obviously you know, just not
having a team and trying to figure out your way
through that. But then both units improved the last two years.
The offense went from seventy fifth to thirty six to
twenty fourth, and like I said, the defense has been
top twenty two straight years. So especially it's just been nice,
you know, to carry the weight a little bit, and
then it regressed the hair last year, but nothing major.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of interesting to see that.
Speaker 3: How in how does a win loss record right, how
is it influenced by like elite special teams play. Would
you say, is you have any opinion on that on
how what role special teams plays in that win loss column.
Speaker 4: You know, I think my general theory has just been
for a while that like close games is where you
know you're going to see that. You know your close
games record, if you have a good quarterback play, you
know how to master a four minute drill, you can
and you can make forty five yard field goals or
you know, penn an opponent deep at a key time.
Speaker 5: That's going to be how you win close games.
Speaker 4: And you know BYU last I checked one of quite
a few close games these last couple of seasons.
Speaker 5: So maybe that theory checks out.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So that being said, it's like we looked at that
over the last few years, and even in twenty twenty three, right,
they they took Oklahoma and Oklahoma States with the.
Speaker 1: Wire at the end of the year to get Bowl eligible.
Speaker 3: They came short, but those were two top twenty five
teams double as you win teams.
Speaker 1: They fell short.
Speaker 3: But it does seem that BYU has won many more
games in these then they've lost. When it's like a
one score game.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously both of the losses from twenty five
were multi score games and they won all the close ones.
Speaker 5: And you know, year before.
Speaker 4: Had a couple dropped a couple close ones at the end,
but one of them elsewhere. You're right, I mean, I
think those last two games of twenty three is where
the ship started to turn around a little bit. There
were some blowouts there in the middle of that season,
but you know, finishing the year almost you know, staying
within one score of Oklahoma and then probably should have
beatn Oklahoma State in that last game. You know, that
was if nothing else, to sign up what they were
capable of.
Speaker 5: And you know twenty three and four since then.
Speaker 3: Yeah, what does BUYU need to improve upon if they
want to get over the hump? Would you say, get
into the CSP They were close, but no cigars this year?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think.
Speaker 4: I mean, the biggest weakness from a pure ranking perspective
is big plays on offense. You know, they were far
more efficient than their their opponents in terms of you know,
success rate, and they went three and out far less,
and so they were able to kind of you know,
when you're when you're going to three.
Speaker 5: And out far less than your opponent.
Speaker 4: You're probably winning the field position battle, and that rang
true by all means, but just the easy points, that's
the biggest way that by you can improve is just
you know, big play or two here and that sets
up a few more easy points. And you know, obviously
Texas Tech was was in a different strategy of this year,
and BYU fans that know.
Speaker 5: That as well as anybody, but you know, they wouldn't.
Speaker 4: Have had to work quite as hard against Utah or
Arizona or something like that that they've gotten or Colorado especially,
you know, get an easy touchdown earlier in the game
and distance yourself. That's probably the biggest opportunity.
Speaker 3: There, Yeah, no doubt about it. What's interesting about SP plus.
I was looking at Kirk Signetti's rankings. I don't know
if you looked at his like ap pole ranking, and
I know the SID may have something to say about
these rankings, but I had like Iowa ranked very high,
very high, like almost I think top twelve, maybe like
tenth or something like that.
Speaker 1: To pull about back up, and I was looking at
sp plus.
Speaker 3: You got Iowa at nine and four as the twelve
best team in college football.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was they kind of well, and I was
annoyed because I kind of had them as an underrated
team this year and I thought they were primed should
be pretty good, and then they dropped a bunch of
close games, and so nobody really noticed how good they were,
even though you know, they almost.
Speaker 5: Beat they almost beat Indiana.
Speaker 4: Maybe that was part of his rationale for it, but
you know, dropping off by three in Iowa State, five
to Indiana, two to Oregon. I mean that's two of
the four semi final teams where they had the game,
you know, to win in the last two minutes. So
they were really, really, really good football team, but they
just were on the wrong side of the close games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like, you know, so that.
Speaker 3: You know, this is an interesting situation, right because Indian
ended up winning the national championship.
Speaker 1: You look at the College Football.
Speaker 3: Playoff Committee choices and obviously, you know, certain teams off
of merit probably shouldn't have got in, but due to contracts,
they did get in.
Speaker 1: If you would have had.
Speaker 3: Your your brothers, what should have the top twelve been
if it was based off of sp plus, what would
have been the top twelve teams to get into the
COLF Football Playoff.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think first of all, Miami and
Notre Dame get in if i'm because one of the
things I was doing late in the season was just
you know, I was I lost complete faith in the
committee once you realized they were doing there, you know,
the way they were playing the head to head game,
where you know, Notre Dames and over Miami unless there
as long as byus separating them, and if BYU's not there,
then suddenly Miami is better than Notre Dame. But they
weren't before, and all the different ways, and the fact
that Oklahoma had to be ahead of Alabama because they're
better than Alabama in one game even though they had
a bunch of turnovers in that game, they weren't actually
better in that game either. I just I kind of
lost faith entirely in that system. And I was just
playing with pure spplus resume SP plus FPI and strinth
the record and just went with a full computer system
there to see what it would come up with. And
it had both Notre Dame and Miami, and it had
Alabama just out had Oklahoma out by quite a bit. So,
so it was a weird year in terms of judging
the SEC because in terms of average sp plus writing
and they're still but comfortably the best conference. They had,
their worst team was better than seven Big ten teams.
Big ten team was extremely vertical, where the SEC was
kind of horizontal in all the teams being really close together.
But you know, the strongest conference or not. Oklahoma shouldn't
have been there and Alabama probably shouldn't have been there either,
and they just tied themselves in knots and I just
hated it. I hated the way that all played out.
And you know, as it turned out, Alabama it could
only beat Oklahoma and they got crushed by a real team.
So you know, it is what it is, I guess,
but I kind of lost. The committee lost me this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, how far out was How far away was BYU
from getting in?
Speaker 4: They were close, I mean obviously they would have been.
I think they were first team out before the Big
twelve championship and then I don't remember, Alabama was probably
still ahead of them when both teams fell. But yeah,
they were right on the border for obvious reasons. I mean,
they only they'd only lost to a top four team
and beating everybody else.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's unfortunate.
Speaker 3: That would have been nice not to play Texas Tech
and the regular season, going to the Big twelve championship
undefeated and then lose, even if it was in convincing fashion.
Maybe you get in then with only one loss. So
give me your ideal scenario, right if you had, if
you were a power broker of college football, what's the
right number of teams to having a playoff? And should
we get away from only a subjective committee and ad
an algorithm to balance out the human corruptible eye test
nature of the current committee.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, first of all, like I've never had
a problem with sixteen, I've assumed we'd be at sixteen
by now. But also I've come to really like twelve.
That's a really high bar still, and lots of games
you know, ended up making a huge difference.
Speaker 5: Obviously for how to Dame.
Speaker 4: The first two games made all the difference, but I
think that kept the bar really high, and obviously Miami
barely squeaking in and it almost went in. The whole
thing I think was good for the system as a whole.
So if we stay at twelve for a long time,
I'm I'm totally good with it. But I've you know,
first time I haven't wrote about the playoff. I think
it was for Football outsiders in like two thousand and eight,
and I said, I was advocated for sixteen, So I'm
not going to complain if we get that too. I
the twenty four and the multiple auto beds and all that,
you can you can miss me with all that, we
haven't even, man, we haven't. We have a twenty fourteen playoff.
That's the way things are are shaped up right now.
Speaker 5: It'll end in March.
Speaker 4: We haven't even mastered twelve yet, so we don't need
to think anything past four rounds just yet. But I'm
fine with twelve or sixteen. And like I said, I
mean my joke, and late in the season it was
a pretty bitter joke. But this is the committee was
no longer. This was the year it became official that
the Committee does not rank twenty five teams. Crafts an
archiesonally hand crafted list of teams for the playoffs, and
they don't just rank one to twenty five.
Speaker 5: And if the humans can't do it, I just want
computers to do.
Speaker 4: I just want to one through twenty five and then
we'll figure out who made the playoff after those teams
are ranked, and instead they were just twisting themselves in
nots and I hated it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm good with a Sweet sixteen, if you will.
And if that Sweet sixteen would have been effectuated this year,
who would have been in that thirteen fourteen to fifteen
kind of sixteen slots? And do you think any of
those teams could have maybe made a run in the
CFP if you looked at kind of the potential seedings.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think if they were sixteen with my computer.
Speaker 4: Thing that I was doing, BAU and Alabama are definitely in.
I think Vanderbilt was in, and then I can't remember
for sure the last pot was It might have been
I had been, Oklahoma might have been.
Speaker 5: I don't.
Speaker 4: I think Utah Maybe I'm trying to remember for sure,
but yeah, I mean, and again at that point, we
are kind of we are lower in the bar when
you get to the you know, Utah having lost to
buy U n Tech and all that, but the Utah
was a really good football team. I think any of
those b y U and Utah both had the line
play that could have been necessary to win at least
a game or two. You know, they didn't have a
Malachai Tony necessarily like Miami did. But the line play
is what got Miami pretty far down that road.
Speaker 6: And I think by U and Utah were both extremely physical.
Speaker 4: That's why those three teams stood out in the Big
twelve as a whole this year. Those are the three
teams that could really really play in the trenches. And
you know, we'll see, we'll see if anybody can change that.
I've been updating rosters. I love, you know, Oklahoma State
basically importing North Texas's offense. That's gonna be great. Kansas State.
I think I love the moves Kansas State made on defense.
But the top three were the top three, and obviously
Morgan scot he's got a high bar to clear, but
they might clear it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely intriguing this next year. Do you have
a way too early win loss prediction for BYU football
as you've been aggregating the roster talent and what they
bring in and what they return.
Speaker 4: I don't have updated rankings yet, but I can tell
you that based on I have this year's schedule, based
on last year's rating, that.
Speaker 6: Would be right around nine wins for BYU.
Speaker 5: So we'll see. I don't.
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure they're going to rank relatively high in
returning production if I had to bet.
Speaker 5: I'm not seeing really any.
Speaker 4: Major major holes that suddenly have to be filled, so
maybe it ends up being higher than that.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I think I'm thinking.
Speaker 4: My guess is that they'll probably start the year second
in the conference, just like the finished the year.
Speaker 3: I guess, Well, that's interesting because I think that would
that would be maybe the most optimistic win loss or
win projection from SP plus.
Speaker 1: I want to say in the last five years, right that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm trying to I'm trying to. Yeah, I'm trying
to remember.
Speaker 4: I remember in twenty after they kind of they lost
a bunch of guys but were still really good. In
twenty one they were I think gus P plus was
super high on them heading into twenty two, and they
fell off, so that I should go back and look
at what the projections were.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they were high, you were, Yeah, you're right going
into twenty twenty two with all the returning production and
the talent. There's a lot of NFL talent on that squad,
and with the strength of schedule in front of them,
they did they fell short in twenty twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: I'd agree with that. I think you had them pretty high.
I think they would probably be pretty close to each other.
Speaker 5: It was kind of chasing.
Speaker 4: It was chasing BYU around for a couple of years.
The I thought they'd fall off in twenty one.
Speaker 6: They really didn't.
Speaker 4: Thought they'd be great in twenty two, and they weren't. So,
but I think we're back on track now these last
couple of years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they had lost.
Speaker 3: They lost a Notre Dame that year at a neutral
site in Vegas. They lost to Arkansas at home. Probably
shouldn't have lost that game. They lost to Liberty on
the road. They lost to East Carolina as well at home.
They fell short. There's no doubt about it. The only
loss that I felt like they really probably should have
took it on the on the lipswither was that Oregon
team at Oregon. All the other ones were all winnable games.
Speaker 5: Yeah that was then. I mean they're still grated out.
Speaker 4: Okay, they got worse than twenty three, but then, yeah,
like we were saying, they rallied late and then they've
been good ever since.
Speaker 1: Yep, no doubt about it.
Speaker 3: Bill Conley here the creator of sp plus representing ESPN
dot Com, talking from college football here on your Utah
ESPN Radio network. So, Bill, the Big Twelve as a conference,
how do you see it comparative to the SEC, the
Big Ten, and the ACC Right now? Are they on
the on the bottom rung here? Comparatively speaking from a
talent from a productivity standpoint, Well.
Speaker 4: I think, I mean they were called in terms of
average ratings, they were closer to the Big Ten than
or they were just about as close to the Big
ten ats there where the ACCHC stunk. You know, obviously
obviously Miami peaked late and that ended up flecting well
on a lot of teams. Yeah, but the bottom of
the just as I was saying about the Big Ten,
the bottom of the AEC was really really poor, and
so you're just going to get an extra easy game
in that conference compared to everybody else's.
Speaker 5: And the Big Ten was or the Big Twelve? Excuse me?
Speaker 4: Was I mean that there were you know, Colorado wasn't
very good. There were a couple of pretty poor teams.
But you just think about in the last two to
three years, almost everybody's been good to quite good at
least once, and that's a pretty impressive thing. Can't necessarily
say that about the about the ACC. So obviously there's
a gap between the top two, but between the top
two and the next two, I should say. But I mean,
right now, I think in terms of consistent quality, Big
twelve is still comfortably ahead of the a SEC.
Speaker 1: That's it. That's a good thing.
Speaker 3: How far away are they from the SEC right now?
I see it seems like they may be falling from grace.
Speaker 1: All of that equity that was.
Speaker 3: Built through uh you know, paying players under the table
and uh, those those car dealerships in rural areas, you know,
fitting the bill.
Speaker 1: It seems like that's possibly coming to an end.
Speaker 4: Well, like I said, I think, you know, in terms
of average rating, the SEC is still the comfortably Their
average espupulsrating was thirteen point one.
Speaker 5: That was forty points.
Speaker 4: Ahead of the Big Ten because again, you know, they
had won. Their worst team was sixty seven, and the
Big Ten had seven teams worse than that.
Speaker 5: So that's the plus.
Speaker 4: You know, in like fifty percent of this year of
this past season's games were decided by one touchdown in
the SEC, so that's I mean, it's extremely competitive it's
very high quality, but as you're suggesting, not really a
guaranteed top five team right now. And the SEC is
the one who insisted that conferences should be judged by
who won the national titles, so they are falling by
their own standard in that regard, even if the average
quality is still really good.
Speaker 3: My guy, Bill Conley, Ladies and gentlemen love talking ball
with you is always a pleasure of blessing and for
all those that are listen, the best way to support
you what you do, how you do it?
Speaker 1: Bill?
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm still I can't say I've been.
Speaker 4: I've been, you know, nosing spreadsheets here lately, so I'm
not posting much.
Speaker 5: But go to go to you know, ESPN underscore Bill
C at Twitter. You'll find out what I'm posting.
Speaker 6: Uh, and we'll have.
Speaker 4: It'll take me a while to get through this, but
once we get through all the roster updates, we'll have
a ton of content March most likely.
Speaker 3: I love it, MANH yeah, yeah, what else? Uh? You know,
because you do you do any mail bag things? Were like, uh,
fans are able to send you messages DMS or anything
like that.
Speaker 1: What have been what have people been asking you? About recently.
Speaker 4: I should do an AMA at some point on on
social No it is, I mean right now, I think
everybody's just waiting, you know, like, do you have any updates?
So when I'm returning, production is going to come out.
That's kind of the most common question. But no, that's
that's pretty much. You know, I have, you know, the
normal kind of train of content here coming up right now.
Everybody everybody was distracted by the NFL. Everybody's distracted by
Olympics now, so you know, socials are pretty quiet.
Speaker 3: Love it man, Well, appreciate you Bill as always loved
and ball with your thanks ropping on.
Speaker 6: Absolutely take care Bill Conley.
Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 3: A great segment, and I always appreciate Bill Conley's time
here on your Utah ESPN Radio Network. That segment was
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more college basketball with Chancellor Johnson. The twelve analyst coming
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