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Speaker 1: I keep in mind that later that expected cause the

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market to kind of like rally a little bit, especially

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as things like bitcoin and then coupled with a maybe

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more pro cryptocurrency administration. We've kind of seen that at

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least old although it's not like rocketing yet. But we

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need to keep in mind that that number, although it

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came in lower, was still over three percent. So when

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we look at what the Fed keeps telling us, they're

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telling us that they want inflation to be at two

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percent or less.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,560
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:46,719
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watch the Financial

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Survival Network. Come your host Carrie Letts. Well, Hey, our

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good friend Eddie Gifford is with us to go over

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last week's CPI numbers and how they how he sees

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them going ahead, as well as let's talk about the

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year ahead, because we are in January. Never forget the

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January effect. We had two twenty plus percent gains in

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the market back to back, something that hasn't happened in

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a long long time. Eddie. It's great to have you

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back on and the happy New Year a little belated

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since we're almost done with January, but we haven't seen

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you in a bit.

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Speaker 1: What of the CPI numbers, Yeah, first of all, thank

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you for having me, And yeah, you know, like we

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editing the last week wondering like what's going to go

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on with CPI and fortunately it came in lighter than expected.

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I keep in mind that lighter that expected cause the

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market to kind of like rally a little bit, especially

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is things like bitcoin, and then coupled with a maybe

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more pro cryptocurrency administration, we've kind of seen that at

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least old although it's not like rocketing yet. But we

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need to keep in mind that that number, although it

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came in lower, was still over three percent. So when

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we look at what the Fed keeps telling us, they're

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telling us that they want inflation to be at two

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percent or less. And it's funny because I was just

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talking to a friend yesterday and he's like, you know,

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do you think it's going to come back down. I'm like, no, no, no, no, no,

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that's that's not the goal.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Inflation doesn't come down, it slows down, and it just

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continues to stack on top of each other. So we're

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still a full percentage point away from getting to the target.

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But even when the Fed gets to the target, that

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means things are still going to be two percent more

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expensive next year than they are this year. And that's

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based off their definition of CPI, which a lot of

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households would argue that what the numbers say, the big

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picture CPI numbers say, compared to what they're actually experiencing

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at how we do will are much different.

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Speaker 4: So I think there's a lot of qui optimism.

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Speaker 1: That seems like there's a lot of catalysts for good

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change with the new administration. Of course, we need to

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keep in mind that all change usually causes pain before

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it causes gain. Right, So I mean I can decide

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that I want to be I want to lose twenty

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pounds this year as an example, right, and I'll be

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healthier next year because of it. But it doesn't mean

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that the first that the whole year is not going

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to have trials and tribulations, and that there's not going

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to be like bad things that happen or that I'm

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not going to fall off course every once in a while.

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So I think we need to keep in mind that

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like this first year of the administration. Although I think

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they're going to be pushing for a lot of positive change,

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it's kind of like that first month or two of

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a diet. It sucks, It comes with some pain, it

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comes with some adjustments, it comes with those types of things.

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So I think that we're in store for volatility. I

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think that CPI numbers seem to be working to our advantage,

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but inflation is running away in Japan right now, which

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the bake of Japan is getting concerned, and the thought

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is they may raise interest rates this week. They're having

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their version of their FED meeting this week. And the

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last time that we saw a rate high from Japan,

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we saw a massive callback in the soccer market. This

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was last year in August, and so I don't know

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if there's going to be a catalyst there again, but

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I do think it bears like paying attention to because

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you don't unwind fifteen years of easy policy in three days.

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So we are in for an interesting year for sure.

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Speaker 3: So do you think we'll have a pullback though, Yeah,

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well there's eleven months left. Well, we'll definitely have at

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least a ten percent, but twenty percent or more, I

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don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think something needs to break for that to happen.

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We already had one of the worst Decembers we've ever had. Yeah,

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I mean, Santa Claus did not decide to show up

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this year, you know, the tailing to the.

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Speaker 4: Sala Claus rally.

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Speaker 1: We had, like the last two days of it were positive,

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but December in general was not good. So we kind

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of had like an election hangover in December. And you know, everyone,

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now that Trump is officially in, it seems like we're

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kind of like catching up to where we were. But

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there are you know, a number of things that could happen.

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Speaker 4: We've talked.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking to Terry, You and I've been talking

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about cracks under the surface for the last year or so.

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If any one of those cracks turns into a break,

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doesn't matter who you are or how good of a

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job you're doing. When the market starts building that acceleration

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to the downside, there's it's like a freight train, like

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you don't stop it and especially given that Yalen just

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told us we got to take extraordinary measures because we're

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right at the dead ceiling again. So there's a number

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of things. I think we're definitely due for some volatility.

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I think that we could easily see a ten percent pullback,

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maybe in the fifteen range. And if something breaks unfortunately

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see like that twenty five thirty thirty five, just because

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of the leverage in the system, it can go real

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fast when when something like that starts to speed up

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because you just can't get out fast enough in that scenario.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we could see a snap. But you know,

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it's questionable whether the economy has been in a recession

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all this time, because remember a couple of years ago,

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they decided to redefine the definition of a recession, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And that's something to kind of keep in mind,

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is that, Well, maybe like twenty twenty two was you know,

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a big version of that recession, and twenty twenty three,

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twenty twenty four was kind of recovering from that recession,

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and maybe now we're at a point where, hey.

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Speaker 4: We can be off to the races again.

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Speaker 1: So it is interesting when you change the definitions of

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things because perception is reality. And if investors believe that

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things are going to be good, and if people believe.

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Speaker 4: That the economy is going to be good, and they

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believe that.

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Speaker 1: Like things are better than they were a year ago,

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then the optimism will work it's way into the consumer markets,

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it'll work its way into the the you know, the

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stock market, and we could see things continue to go that. Obviously,

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my biggest fear in general is just that we have

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like these extreme elevated valuations on all these stocks. But

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you know, my cycles guys say says that, well, that's

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just because we've had such an advancement, like a technology

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revolution all that different the industrial revolution, and stocks are

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just going to run out higher multiples now.

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Speaker 4: Because of that.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see, you know, it's it's never it's always

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different this time until it isn't. So we're treading we're

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definitely or we're definitely approaching the year like it's going

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to be a good year.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: We have the way that we're positioned, you know, it's

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it's a more aggressive allocation in general, but we do

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have our triggers in place just in case some different

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and things crack or break. Where the goal is to

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ride the wave and avoid the catastrophe. That's that's that's

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kind of what I always tell the clients.

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Speaker 3: So he signed close to I think, two hundred executive

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orders this first day. And you know what that tells me,

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Like the guy's known who's going to win for months

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here because this didn't just happen. I mean there's you know,

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for one executive order, there's a tremendous amount of work

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that goes into it. Even if they had something better

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than chat GPT, they couldn't just draft these orders.

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Speaker 4: And yet they weren't ready to go.

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Speaker 3: So in a way, this is the most prepared administration

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we've ever seen, other than somebody that just wins their

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second term consecutively, just keeps the show going.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and when I when it comes to like the

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administration itself, I think it is safe to say it's

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different this time. You know, Trump learned a lot. He's

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he's a very competitive person. He didn't become a successful

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business owner by not being competitive and not finding ways

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to win and overcome adversity. And so I mean, talk

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about the adversity this guy's been through. He you know,

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went through an administration where everyone was just trying to appeach

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him the whole time, and then he had, you know,

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an election that he did not agree with.

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Speaker 4: I will just call it that. You know, he had

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COVID that.

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Speaker 1: He had to deal with, and then he had to

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try to battle his way back through indictments and all

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these different things to try to even get on the

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docket ache and then he ends up winning the popular

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vote and the electoral vote and with the story that

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everyone wants to hear. And the one thing that I

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can say about Trump's last administration is he tried to

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do everything that he said he was going to. And

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he still has that character where he's going to try

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to implement everything that he said he was going to.

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But this time he knows the rules. This time, he

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knows the game. This time he has a much better

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understanding of who's an enemy, who's an adversary, and who's

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in his alliance. Right, he has a much better idea

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of all those types of things. So if you know

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the game plan ahead of time, and you're someone like

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Tom Brady, you're gonna go out there when that football game.

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And I think he could make the same argument for

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someone like Donald Trump. He knows the game, he knows

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the game plan, he knows how everything works now, and

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this time he got to pick his team. You know,

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last time the coaches were picking his team, and and

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and and he knows better this time around. So for

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all those reasons, I think that you're right, Like he's

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totally you know, probably one of the most prepared ever

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as well as the administration in general, and so everything

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that I'm worried about, right, because you got to have

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a wall of worry to make new market higher than

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any ways, it's hard to think that they haven't already

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thought of all those things and already have a plan

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of action for that stuff. So again, like that's why

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we are like, uh more aggressive and more risk on

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uh for this year, and then well we always have

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our tris in place just in case, right, But the

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I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I think that, uh, this guy is ready.

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Speaker 1: And he's ready for whatever, and he's ready for worst

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case scenario like this, Like he knows that there's been

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an assassination and tept on him. He knows that those

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things are going to come, and he's coming out fighting anyway.

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So I think it really speaks to Okay, we finally

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have like that leader in the United States where you

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can say like okay, like.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I can, I can. I can respect this guy.

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Speaker 1: You know, not everyone to will agree with him, but

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it's hard not to respect him for what he's done

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and what he's over common where he's at now.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely all right.

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Speaker 3: So if there's one piece of advice to give it

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investors for the calming year, what is it, Eddy.

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Speaker 1: I would say, there's two pieces of advice, because we've

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got to think of this and and two from two

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different perspectives. Number One, Okay, stick to your plan, keep

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keep buying, keep leaning into your equities, and make sure

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that you have some type of exit in place to

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protect you if something breaks. And on the same time,

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get rid of that consumer debt. You know, like we

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have a ton of people that are probably listening to

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us right now, and a ton of people all over

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the country where they have these like crazy credit cards

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with like twenty five, twenty six, twenty nine percent interest.

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You don't need to worry about investing in the stock

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market if you can pay off that debt that's you're

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paying twenty nine percent on. That's a guaranteed tax free

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ery return a twenty nine percent on your money.

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Speaker 4: So get rid of that. If you can get rid

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of that.

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Speaker 1: It's going to make your life a lot less stressful

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and it's going to make you be willing to take

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more risk on the other side with your investment.

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Speaker 4: So take care of both sides.

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Speaker 1: Get rid of the debt like and start building your

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net worth and think like an investor. You need to

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think of yourself as being successful in ten to fifteen years,

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and you can't do that if assets aren't working for

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you exactly.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Eddie, just tell us where we find you, how

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we connect with you on the web.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, easiest thing to do to activewealth dot com slash

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Eddie Dash Gifford, or just go to that good old

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search engine called Google type and Eddie Gifford. That's Eddie

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with a Y G I F f r D and

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you'll be able to, you know, see my ex page

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and my LinkedIn and.

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Speaker 4: All that other stuff.

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Speaker 1: So look forward to talking with you. If you have

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any questions about anything, excellent, I've.

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Speaker 3: Got a question for Eddie myself, to shoot me an

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email kl at Carrie Leeds dot com. The link to

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his site is in the show notes of this interview

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on Financial Survival Network dot com. And if you go there,

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we just asked that you sign up for your free

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complimentary newsletter, like over sixty five thousand other FSN members

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have over the years. Eddie appreciate you coming on and

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we'll talk to you again.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, thank you for having me, Kerry.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lets. This Financial Survival Network

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your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go

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to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now

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more than ever,