Speaker 1: What's up?
Speaker 2: Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you're new,
we always start this show by being transparent. And yesterday
I didn't make a play on those games. You know,
some people from the tach could tell my confidence level
wasn't too high on those two games that we had yesterday.
But yeah, clean, clean slate yesterday for myself, you know,
I have a feeling it's the same for you.
Speaker 1: But good to see you today as well. How you doing.
Speaker 3: I'm good today, Ski. It was the same for me.
And if I had just played where you know, the
directions that I've leaned, I probably would have lost the
Seattle Connecticut under by a long shot because Seattle scored
over one hundred by themselves and probably would have won
the Dallas team total over the only scored seven points
in the fourth and still got over their team totally.
So just as well to sit back and not pay
any big on a split. And we'll get to it
today because I think there's a couple here today that
we can cash in on.
Speaker 2: Well, we have three games too to try to get
some action on, for sure.
Speaker 1: Let's get straight to it.
Speaker 2: First game up, we'll talk about valkyries and Dream opened
up Dream minus eight. Still eight's out there. A couple
seven and a half. The totals come down a little
bit from one fifty seven and a half. I'm seeing
it as low as one fifty five, depending where you shot.
I mean it's all over the place. I still see
a one to fifty six and a half too. Injury
report and this I will actually refresh. So money Billings
is game time decision.
Speaker 1: Maria, she is out. Ryan Howard is out for the Dream.
Speaker 2: I think this is a little bit of a I mean, yeah,
she's you know, so the Dream. Every game since All
Star Break, they've been on the road. The three games
before All Star Break they were on the road still,
so it's been a pretty long roague trip.
Speaker 1: It did have a break in between.
Speaker 2: But this is the first game back home after that,
and they do play tomorrow versus burning of a back
to back for them for the Valkyries, I mean, both
teams have a little bit of rest before this game,
and uh, they've been back and.
Speaker 1: Forth home road, home road.
Speaker 2: So I don't like the spot for their dream. I
didn't like how the Valkyries looked without Kayla Thornton out
there in that in that last game, getting blown out
by thirty two Connecticut doesn't really make.
Speaker 1: You win a back them. But I'll say like this.
Speaker 2: You know, the way I'm thinking is the Dream have
outperformed with the market things to them twice. Right, They've
won their last two games outright as underdogs. Now I
feel like the value is going like you got to
pay a premium for that for their Dream and Valkyries
like to start the season or you know, they were
really big dogs all the time, then they were covering
so many in a row.
Speaker 1: At one point they started to make them favorites.
Speaker 2: Now after looking so bad, they're back to the big
dog roll and that's where they've had success.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I know they don't have Kayler Thornton, but I feel
like second game out they would have figured out how
they would like to play so and I think they're
really well coached. I think the coach will have a
good game plan for them as well coming off with
really bad loss like that. So I want to I'm
looking at the Valkyries plus the eight points. I'm curious
the market has come down on the total. Are you
looking at that or are you looking at a side
in this game?
Speaker 3: I looked at aside in this game. Ski actually did
this one single game video for wager Talk this morning,
and I kind of shortened it up and took Golden
State first half plus four first off one of the
main reasons, and you hit on it right away. It's
been a long long time since Atlanta's been at home.
I know in the NBA we often use first home
game off a long road trip. The three game road
trip after the All Star Break was one thing. It's
been eighteen days since they've been here if you count
the three before the All Star Break where they were
on the road. I think the three that Atlanta just
played on the road were pretty taxing games. I mean
they were all against playoff teams, against Las Vegas, against Phoenix,
and then against Minnesota. And they got beaten the first one,
but the next two beat Phoenix, beat Minnesota. Now you
go home as an eight point favorite on your home
f I just find it hard to believe that Atlanta
could show up with the same focus. It's kind of
an early letdown to me for them coming home is
a big favorite after playing those last two games in
Minnesota pushed them at the end of that game all
of a sudden and if Calier doesn't step out of
bounds off of that rebound. Perhaps Minnesota since that game
to overtime, very possible, so to me, yeah, she was
just on the inline. Win two out of three on
the road, a lot of energy, a lot of focus.
Not sure that they'll start the game that way. Golden
State would be the exact opposite. You get blown out
of Connecticut. You have to believe that they'll open the
game focused.
Speaker 1: Ready to roll.
Speaker 3: They've been great first half road underdogs. Seven to two
and two against the spread are Golden State, And if
they're on the road as an underdog with a day
of rest or more, they're six to one and one
against the spread. So good numbers posted by Golden State.
We know they've been a good first half team all
season long. They played here earlier this month July seventh,
same price, Valkyries were plus four first half, they let
at halftime forty five to forty three. I think the
two stars small forwards were involved in that game. Ryan
Howard did play for Atlanta. Kayla Thornton did play for
Golden State, so not having either one of them probably
neutralizes each other. So you're basically getting the same exact
price for the same two teams on the same floor,
except that Golden State seems to have this huge scheduling
advantage to me, so I thought plus four probably in
my estimation, probably takes at length a little bit of
time to get going. Golden State should get going right
away because they got off to a really slow start
against Connecticut. So I bet it. I like it. Golden
State first half plus four.
Speaker 1: I like it.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at them for the full game,
but I don't have a reason to talk you off
the first half. Your reasoning makes sense to me. All right,
Kylie in the chat, want to talk about every game,
but this one.
Speaker 1: Huh.
Speaker 2: When we get there, we'll talk about it, Kylie, I
see you in the chat. Next came up. We'll go
Sky and Mystics. And here I believe we had an
opener of seven. We see seven and a half, so
it to open one fifty seven and a half. How
much movement I'm seeing mostly one fifty seven. As far
as the injury report for Chicago, Angel Reese has been
rolled in, so we shall see her back on the
court tonight. Ariel Atkins out, who'son is out? Hayley Van
Litt looks like she's questionable and Onion Warry is also questionable.
For the Mystics, Eliah Edwards is the only person.
Speaker 1: Who's going to be out here. The Sky have really
struggled lately.
Speaker 2: I mean, we all know they're not the best team
in general, but especially when Angel Reese is not in
the court, they look pretty bad. They failed to hit
eighty points and I believe five straight games tating back
before the break.
Speaker 1: This is this is tough.
Speaker 2: I do expect, like, I don't look at the Mystics
as a favorite, like they haven't been good in this
role dating back to last year, especially like big favorites
like seven and a half and the Sky. I just
after a couple of really bad games, you know it's
a by low on them and you're getting their best
player back, So I want to lean towards the Sky here.
Speaker 1: I'm curious how you see it, Rob, You know.
Speaker 3: Well, Sunday it was a little leisure for me when
Angel Rees didn't play, because if Chicago just doesn't handle
the ball real well, they have the worst turnover rate
in the WNBA and Indiana I think had or I
think Chicago committee twenty two turnovers against Indiana Sunday now
with Angel back, and it gets a little bit better.
But they still don't have the best of guards on
that team. The Washington side, I'm with you, it's kind
of hard to trust them because they always seem to
have one quarter or sometimes it's a half where they
just don't score. You know, the other day they led
Phoenix forty six forty two halftime, and then they score
like twenty six points in the second half. They just
can't make a shot. That seems to happen to them
way too up Britney Sykes. I think I'd have to
look this up again. I don't think Britney Sykes scored.
Speaker 1: In that game.
Speaker 3: I think she had zero points in twenty plus minutes.
I'll double check that after this. But it wasn't a
great game second half offensively for Washington. Therefore, they're just
so hard to depend on to create some kind of margin.
Chicago can be, you know, a little bit feisty at times,
especially if their front court has a little bit of
an advantage. Maybe they do here against Washington. That front
court is in and out. Of course, it features two rookies,
so you'd expect it to be in and out. My
first look here was going to be toward after everything
I just said, my first look was going to be
toward the over, simply because Chicago hasn't stopped anybody in
a month, maybe longer, and because with Angel Reese back,
they can probably score more than they when they don't
have her Andy Arael Atkins combined, they've been a disaster
on offense. It's not even close to being a good
offensive team. So maybe I could look that way Ski.
I'm just looking now. It doesn't seem like there's any
variance in the line here with Angel playing now, I
mean Washington seven and a half, seven seven and a
half across the board. Still, i'd expect that to go down.
Gotta be some Chicago money coming, and maybe this fifty
six and a half one fifty fifty seven goes up
a little bit. I don't know. I haven't played the
game yet, but I still might lean a little bit
toward over, simply because Chicago's defense has been so bad
and Washington, if they have one bad quarter, they probably
still could get this thing over. One fifty six and
a half.
Speaker 2: Yes, guy, have been the worst defensive rated team over
the last five games, and you definitely need some playmaking.
Angeuries has been a lot better this year in that
playmaking role, so getting her back definitely will help out
in that regard. So I can understand looking for more
points in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, either over or a sky.
Speaker 2: I think a good ways to look in this one.
All right, last game on the slate here, Rob, you know,
we have the Aces and the Sparks. This one opened
up minus two for Las Vegas. Still at minus two
total open. I have an opener of one seventy two
and a half over here, and I see it as
high as one seventy five and a half injury report.
I don't see anybody on there for the Sparks, and
then for the Aces, it's the same usual suspect Cheyenne
Parker Tyas. So you know we've seen these teams play
a couple times so far this season. Sparks took one
and the Aces took one, both high scoring games, both
surpassing this total that we're looking at here today. Sparks,
this is the best basketball they've been playing the entire season.
They won five in a row, scored ninety plus in
each one of them. They haven't necessarily played the best competition,
but are the Aces great competition. I mean, they've been
wildly inconsistent this season too, right, so it makes sense
why we have a closer point spread than we usually
see when these two teams meet. We know, I mean,
if you've been around WNBA for a little bit, you
know the beef or you know, you understand why Handy
plays with a chip on her shoulder when she sees
Las Vegas. And I mean Kelsey Plumb is over there
now too, a little bit of the same. Maybe not
as as big of a chip as Handy, but still,
you know, just showing them what they're missing out on.
So all those things, it is very hard for me
to look anyway, But the sparks here, it's interesting to
me to see the Aces favorite honestly, But I agree
with the market move on the total up rabo.
Speaker 1: How are you looking at this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I looked at it from the sparks side. Ski
Las Vegas. I think it's the fourth street road game
for them as well, So there's a little bit of
a fatigue situation, possibly with Las Vegas. But I just
in my mind there's no need to Let's just say,
if it ain't broke, don't fix it. You mentioned La
scoring the last five games and sixth of the last
seven has been incredible. Here their team total is eighty
six and a half. We talked the other day about
how up and down Las Vegas is. They're up and
down mainly because of their defense. Juwel Lloyd found her
way to the bench last game, right, I think the
bells started. Yeah, and guess what she scored twenty points?
Is that what it took for her to show up
is put her on the bench. I'm not sure, but
their defense SKI has been back and forth all season long,
and I just against an offense like this, and you
talked about they played two high scoring games already LA.
I think they've scored eighty one and ninety seven in
the two matchups against them. I just I didn't put
a lot of thought into this one beyond the fact
that LA's offense is worth backing. Right now, Las Vegas
is on a bit of a four game road trip.
I don't trust Las Vegas defense on a game by
game basis. So over eighty six and a half to
me looked a little bit low in a game where
you expected to be high scoring and you expect it
to be in the right where the total isn't even
higher really, so for me, like I said, was simple,
Los Angeles sparks over their team total eighty six and
a half.
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. I like it. I
like it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, good stuff on this game. I mean that's all
we got for today, just a quick three piece we're
on here. I did three games and under fifteen minutes
we got right to it. I think we did a
pretty solid job.
Speaker 1: So now.
Speaker 2: Where before we move it over the best bets still
a little bit of the promo. It is five dollars Tuesday,
so you can go check my page, you can go
check Rob's page and look look at robieo there in
the picture. He made this one and we'll both have
a top play for five dollars. Ukapper well in the WNBA,
you can go check him out. You can check anybody
you like out a way to talk. They should have
a five dollars top play available for today and if
you win, maybe you want to come back and rock
with robbin myself for the rest of the w NBA season.
This does expire tonight, so maybe check out our five
dollars play. See what the write ups are like, you know,
and if you like them, if you want to continue
to rock with us for the rest of the season,
you get us both for under three dollars per day
and it goes through oh mid October.
Speaker 1: I believe all right.
Speaker 2: Now, got that promo out the way, we'll move it
to best bets. If there's anything else you would like
to promo, Rob feel free If you have a best
bet for the show, we would love to hear it.
If you don't, it's all good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you covered the promo real good there, Ski. We
got two that the you know, the check could take
advantage of food where both of us are concerned here,
So go ahead and hop over to wadertalk dot com.
And like I said, you never if you've wanted to
buy a selection package and you never have five dollars,
Tuesdays probably the time to do it. That's why they
offer top place for five bucks on Tuesday's best bet
for today. I'll go back to where we started. I
think Golden State's proven they're a very good first half team.
I think the situation is good on one side, bad
on the other. I think it's a big enough advantage
to think Golden State can at least come out the
first twenty minutes and play well. Atlanta. For the most part,
this year's SKI has been a second half higher scoring
team than first half as well. So give me the
Valkyries plus four first half in a tough travel situation
or at least scheduling spot for Atlanta and a good
bounce back spot for Golden State.
Speaker 1: I like it.
Speaker 2: I'm in agreement, and you know what, I'll just double
it up and we'll rock on the same game.
Speaker 1: So we'll see.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll both be geniuses or both be idiots tomorrow,
but I'll go Valkyri's. The best number I see is
plus eight, and I'll locked that in. After the show,
I'll share this trend. I mean, I talked about a
lot about the game already, but this trend is kind
of what I was explaining. I feel like it goes
back to twenty twenty two. So I'll say non rusty
road underdogs. And when I say that, I mean less
than four days rest. You know, we always talk about
res versus RUSS. There are nine to one hs when
facing teams coming off back to back wins as underdogs,
And just like I was explaining earlier, this trend is
pretty much saying like it's a market overreaction. When the
team makes seed expectations and two straight up set wins,
odds makers tend to overreact and that puts the value
tonight on the Valkyries plus eight, So that would be
my best bet.
Speaker 1: For the show. Veno another.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's always great doing these shows with you.
I appreciate you taking the time to talk these games out.
Helps my process, helps everybody else out, I'm sure as well.
Chat You guys are awesome, you hope make the show
what it is. We love you guys, everybody else out there,
Twitch x, YouTube Shorts, Kick, Spotify, Apple, we appreciate you
tuning in as well. We'll be back again tomorrow. We
have another three piece and we'll see if we can
find some winners. So best of luck on all your
action today and we will catch you guys then