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Speaker 1: What's up?

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Speaker 2: Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you're new,

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we always start this show by being transparent. And yesterday

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I didn't make a play on those games. You know,

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some people from the tach could tell my confidence level

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wasn't too high on those two games that we had yesterday.

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But yeah, clean, clean slate yesterday for myself, you know,

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I have a feeling it's the same for you.

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Speaker 1: But good to see you today as well. How you doing.

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Speaker 3: I'm good today, Ski. It was the same for me.

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And if I had just played where you know, the

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directions that I've leaned, I probably would have lost the

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Seattle Connecticut under by a long shot because Seattle scored

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over one hundred by themselves and probably would have won

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the Dallas team total over the only scored seven points

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in the fourth and still got over their team totally.

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So just as well to sit back and not pay

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any big on a split. And we'll get to it

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today because I think there's a couple here today that

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we can cash in on.

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Speaker 2: Well, we have three games too to try to get

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some action on, for sure.

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Speaker 1: Let's get straight to it.

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Speaker 2: First game up, we'll talk about valkyries and Dream opened

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up Dream minus eight. Still eight's out there. A couple

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seven and a half. The totals come down a little

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bit from one fifty seven and a half. I'm seeing

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it as low as one fifty five, depending where you shot.

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I mean it's all over the place. I still see

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a one to fifty six and a half too. Injury

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report and this I will actually refresh. So money Billings

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is game time decision.

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Speaker 1: Maria, she is out. Ryan Howard is out for the Dream.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a little bit of a I mean, yeah,

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she's you know, so the Dream. Every game since All

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Star Break, they've been on the road. The three games

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before All Star Break they were on the road still,

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so it's been a pretty long roague trip.

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Speaker 1: It did have a break in between.

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Speaker 2: But this is the first game back home after that,

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and they do play tomorrow versus burning of a back

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to back for them for the Valkyries, I mean, both

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teams have a little bit of rest before this game,

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and uh, they've been back and.

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Speaker 1: Forth home road, home road.

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Speaker 2: So I don't like the spot for their dream. I

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didn't like how the Valkyries looked without Kayla Thornton out

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there in that in that last game, getting blown out

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by thirty two Connecticut doesn't really make.

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Speaker 1: You win a back them. But I'll say like this.

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Speaker 2: You know, the way I'm thinking is the Dream have

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outperformed with the market things to them twice. Right, They've

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won their last two games outright as underdogs. Now I

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feel like the value is going like you got to

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pay a premium for that for their Dream and Valkyries

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like to start the season or you know, they were

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really big dogs all the time, then they were covering

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so many in a row.

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Speaker 1: At one point they started to make them favorites.

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Speaker 2: Now after looking so bad, they're back to the big

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dog roll and that's where they've had success.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I know they don't have Kayler Thornton, but I feel

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like second game out they would have figured out how

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they would like to play so and I think they're

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really well coached. I think the coach will have a

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good game plan for them as well coming off with

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really bad loss like that. So I want to I'm

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looking at the Valkyries plus the eight points. I'm curious

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the market has come down on the total. Are you

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looking at that or are you looking at a side

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in this game?

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Speaker 3: I looked at aside in this game. Ski actually did

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this one single game video for wager Talk this morning,

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and I kind of shortened it up and took Golden

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State first half plus four first off one of the

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main reasons, and you hit on it right away. It's

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been a long long time since Atlanta's been at home.

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I know in the NBA we often use first home

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game off a long road trip. The three game road

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trip after the All Star Break was one thing. It's

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been eighteen days since they've been here if you count

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the three before the All Star Break where they were

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on the road. I think the three that Atlanta just

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played on the road were pretty taxing games. I mean

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they were all against playoff teams, against Las Vegas, against Phoenix,

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and then against Minnesota. And they got beaten the first one,

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but the next two beat Phoenix, beat Minnesota. Now you

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go home as an eight point favorite on your home

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f I just find it hard to believe that Atlanta

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could show up with the same focus. It's kind of

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an early letdown to me for them coming home is

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a big favorite after playing those last two games in

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Minnesota pushed them at the end of that game all

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of a sudden and if Calier doesn't step out of

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bounds off of that rebound. Perhaps Minnesota since that game

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to overtime, very possible, so to me, yeah, she was

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just on the inline. Win two out of three on

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the road, a lot of energy, a lot of focus.

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Not sure that they'll start the game that way. Golden

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State would be the exact opposite. You get blown out

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of Connecticut. You have to believe that they'll open the

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game focused.

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Speaker 1: Ready to roll.

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Speaker 3: They've been great first half road underdogs. Seven to two

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and two against the spread are Golden State, And if

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they're on the road as an underdog with a day

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of rest or more, they're six to one and one

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against the spread. So good numbers posted by Golden State.

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We know they've been a good first half team all

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season long. They played here earlier this month July seventh,

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same price, Valkyries were plus four first half, they let

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at halftime forty five to forty three. I think the

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two stars small forwards were involved in that game. Ryan

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Howard did play for Atlanta. Kayla Thornton did play for

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Golden State, so not having either one of them probably

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neutralizes each other. So you're basically getting the same exact

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price for the same two teams on the same floor,

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except that Golden State seems to have this huge scheduling

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advantage to me, so I thought plus four probably in

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my estimation, probably takes at length a little bit of

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time to get going. Golden State should get going right

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away because they got off to a really slow start

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against Connecticut. So I bet it. I like it. Golden

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State first half plus four.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking at them for the full game,

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but I don't have a reason to talk you off

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the first half. Your reasoning makes sense to me. All right,

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Kylie in the chat, want to talk about every game,

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but this one.

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Speaker 1: Huh.

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Speaker 2: When we get there, we'll talk about it, Kylie, I

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see you in the chat. Next came up. We'll go

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Sky and Mystics. And here I believe we had an

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opener of seven. We see seven and a half, so

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it to open one fifty seven and a half. How

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much movement I'm seeing mostly one fifty seven. As far

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as the injury report for Chicago, Angel Reese has been

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rolled in, so we shall see her back on the

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court tonight. Ariel Atkins out, who'son is out? Hayley Van

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Litt looks like she's questionable and Onion Warry is also questionable.

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For the Mystics, Eliah Edwards is the only person.

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Speaker 1: Who's going to be out here. The Sky have really

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struggled lately.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we all know they're not the best team

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in general, but especially when Angel Reese is not in

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the court, they look pretty bad. They failed to hit

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eighty points and I believe five straight games tating back

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before the break.

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Speaker 1: This is this is tough.

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Speaker 2: I do expect, like, I don't look at the Mystics

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as a favorite, like they haven't been good in this

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role dating back to last year, especially like big favorites

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like seven and a half and the Sky. I just

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after a couple of really bad games, you know it's

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a by low on them and you're getting their best

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player back, So I want to lean towards the Sky here.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious how you see it, Rob, You know.

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Speaker 3: Well, Sunday it was a little leisure for me when

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Angel Rees didn't play, because if Chicago just doesn't handle

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the ball real well, they have the worst turnover rate

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in the WNBA and Indiana I think had or I

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think Chicago committee twenty two turnovers against Indiana Sunday now

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with Angel back, and it gets a little bit better.

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But they still don't have the best of guards on

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that team. The Washington side, I'm with you, it's kind

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of hard to trust them because they always seem to

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have one quarter or sometimes it's a half where they

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just don't score. You know, the other day they led

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Phoenix forty six forty two halftime, and then they score

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like twenty six points in the second half. They just

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can't make a shot. That seems to happen to them

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way too up Britney Sykes. I think I'd have to

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look this up again. I don't think Britney Sykes scored.

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Speaker 1: In that game.

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Speaker 3: I think she had zero points in twenty plus minutes.

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I'll double check that after this. But it wasn't a

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great game second half offensively for Washington. Therefore, they're just

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so hard to depend on to create some kind of margin.

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Chicago can be, you know, a little bit feisty at times,

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especially if their front court has a little bit of

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an advantage. Maybe they do here against Washington. That front

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court is in and out. Of course, it features two rookies,

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so you'd expect it to be in and out. My

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first look here was going to be toward after everything

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I just said, my first look was going to be

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toward the over, simply because Chicago hasn't stopped anybody in

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a month, maybe longer, and because with Angel Reese back,

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they can probably score more than they when they don't

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have her Andy Arael Atkins combined, they've been a disaster

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on offense. It's not even close to being a good

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offensive team. So maybe I could look that way Ski.

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I'm just looking now. It doesn't seem like there's any

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variance in the line here with Angel playing now, I

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mean Washington seven and a half, seven seven and a

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half across the board. Still, i'd expect that to go down.

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Gotta be some Chicago money coming, and maybe this fifty

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six and a half one fifty fifty seven goes up

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a little bit. I don't know. I haven't played the

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game yet, but I still might lean a little bit

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toward over, simply because Chicago's defense has been so bad

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and Washington, if they have one bad quarter, they probably

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still could get this thing over. One fifty six and

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a half.

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Speaker 2: Yes, guy, have been the worst defensive rated team over

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the last five games, and you definitely need some playmaking.

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Angeuries has been a lot better this year in that

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playmaking role, so getting her back definitely will help out

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in that regard. So I can understand looking for more

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points in this game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, either over or a sky.

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Speaker 2: I think a good ways to look in this one.

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All right, last game on the slate here, Rob, you know,

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we have the Aces and the Sparks. This one opened

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up minus two for Las Vegas. Still at minus two

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total open. I have an opener of one seventy two

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and a half over here, and I see it as

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high as one seventy five and a half injury report.

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I don't see anybody on there for the Sparks, and

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then for the Aces, it's the same usual suspect Cheyenne

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Parker Tyas. So you know we've seen these teams play

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a couple times so far this season. Sparks took one

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and the Aces took one, both high scoring games, both

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surpassing this total that we're looking at here today. Sparks,

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this is the best basketball they've been playing the entire season.

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They won five in a row, scored ninety plus in

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each one of them. They haven't necessarily played the best competition,

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but are the Aces great competition. I mean, they've been

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wildly inconsistent this season too, right, so it makes sense

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why we have a closer point spread than we usually

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see when these two teams meet. We know, I mean,

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if you've been around WNBA for a little bit, you

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know the beef or you know, you understand why Handy

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plays with a chip on her shoulder when she sees

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Las Vegas. And I mean Kelsey Plumb is over there

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now too, a little bit of the same. Maybe not

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as as big of a chip as Handy, but still,

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you know, just showing them what they're missing out on.

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So all those things, it is very hard for me

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to look anyway, But the sparks here, it's interesting to

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me to see the Aces favorite honestly, But I agree

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with the market move on the total up rabo.

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Speaker 1: How are you looking at this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I looked at it from the sparks side. Ski

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Las Vegas. I think it's the fourth street road game

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for them as well, So there's a little bit of

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a fatigue situation, possibly with Las Vegas. But I just

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in my mind there's no need to Let's just say,

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if it ain't broke, don't fix it. You mentioned La

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scoring the last five games and sixth of the last

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seven has been incredible. Here their team total is eighty

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six and a half. We talked the other day about

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how up and down Las Vegas is. They're up and

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down mainly because of their defense. Juwel Lloyd found her

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way to the bench last game, right, I think the

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bells started. Yeah, and guess what she scored twenty points?

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Is that what it took for her to show up

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is put her on the bench. I'm not sure, but

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their defense SKI has been back and forth all season long,

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and I just against an offense like this, and you

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talked about they played two high scoring games already LA.

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I think they've scored eighty one and ninety seven in

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the two matchups against them. I just I didn't put

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a lot of thought into this one beyond the fact

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that LA's offense is worth backing. Right now, Las Vegas

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is on a bit of a four game road trip.

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I don't trust Las Vegas defense on a game by

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game basis. So over eighty six and a half to

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me looked a little bit low in a game where

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you expected to be high scoring and you expect it

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to be in the right where the total isn't even

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higher really, so for me, like I said, was simple,

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Los Angeles sparks over their team total eighty six and

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a half.

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Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. I like it. I

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like it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, good stuff on this game. I mean that's all

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we got for today, just a quick three piece we're

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on here. I did three games and under fifteen minutes

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we got right to it. I think we did a

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pretty solid job.

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Speaker 1: So now.

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Speaker 2: Where before we move it over the best bets still

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a little bit of the promo. It is five dollars Tuesday,

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so you can go check my page, you can go

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check Rob's page and look look at robieo there in

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the picture. He made this one and we'll both have

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a top play for five dollars. Ukapper well in the WNBA,

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you can go check him out. You can check anybody

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you like out a way to talk. They should have

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a five dollars top play available for today and if

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you win, maybe you want to come back and rock

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with robbin myself for the rest of the w NBA season.

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This does expire tonight, so maybe check out our five

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dollars play. See what the write ups are like, you know,

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and if you like them, if you want to continue

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to rock with us for the rest of the season,

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you get us both for under three dollars per day

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and it goes through oh mid October.

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Speaker 1: I believe all right.

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Speaker 2: Now, got that promo out the way, we'll move it

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to best bets. If there's anything else you would like

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to promo, Rob feel free If you have a best

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bet for the show, we would love to hear it.

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If you don't, it's all good.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you covered the promo real good there, Ski. We

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got two that the you know, the check could take

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advantage of food where both of us are concerned here,

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So go ahead and hop over to wadertalk dot com.

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And like I said, you never if you've wanted to

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buy a selection package and you never have five dollars,

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Tuesdays probably the time to do it. That's why they

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offer top place for five bucks on Tuesday's best bet

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for today. I'll go back to where we started. I

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think Golden State's proven they're a very good first half team.

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I think the situation is good on one side, bad

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on the other. I think it's a big enough advantage

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to think Golden State can at least come out the

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first twenty minutes and play well. Atlanta. For the most part,

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this year's SKI has been a second half higher scoring

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team than first half as well. So give me the

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Valkyries plus four first half in a tough travel situation

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or at least scheduling spot for Atlanta and a good

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bounce back spot for Golden State.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 2: I'm in agreement, and you know what, I'll just double

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it up and we'll rock on the same game.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we'll both be geniuses or both be idiots tomorrow,

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but I'll go Valkyri's. The best number I see is

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plus eight, and I'll locked that in. After the show,

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I'll share this trend. I mean, I talked about a

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lot about the game already, but this trend is kind

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of what I was explaining. I feel like it goes

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back to twenty twenty two. So I'll say non rusty

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road underdogs. And when I say that, I mean less

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than four days rest. You know, we always talk about

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res versus RUSS. There are nine to one hs when

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facing teams coming off back to back wins as underdogs,

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And just like I was explaining earlier, this trend is

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pretty much saying like it's a market overreaction. When the

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team makes seed expectations and two straight up set wins,

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odds makers tend to overreact and that puts the value

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tonight on the Valkyries plus eight, So that would be

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my best bet.

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Speaker 1: For the show. Veno another.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's always great doing these shows with you.

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I appreciate you taking the time to talk these games out.

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Helps my process, helps everybody else out, I'm sure as well.

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Chat You guys are awesome, you hope make the show

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what it is. We love you guys, everybody else out there,

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Twitch x, YouTube Shorts, Kick, Spotify, Apple, we appreciate you

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tuning in as well. We'll be back again tomorrow. We

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have another three piece and we'll see if we can

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find some winners. So best of luck on all your

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action today and we will catch you guys then