Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total Bases.
I've got Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon with me in
for the next forty five minutes. We are going to
work our way through the hump Day slate, the Wednesday slate,
a lot of day games today. We were just kind
of talking off air, hasn't been as many day games
as usual early in the season, and suddenly we get
like a pretty much an entire slate of day games today.
But we're gonna start with what I'll call our feature
game today. I'm gonna call it the feature because A
it's the Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers, who are almost
always a feature, and b it's one of our only
sort of primetime games, one of the only games going
on tonight. And so I'll start with Brian Leonard here
because this is his Cleveland Guardians. Last night, they lose
four to one, but more importantly, Brian, they lose Chase
de Latter, who was kind of the you know that
the bright spot in the early going for this Guardian's team.
Now it's gonna be Gavin Williams, Yoshinova, Yamamoto, how are
you seeing Guardians Dodgers out in Chevez Raviene tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a heartbreaking thing. We don't know yet
what's happened. They said they did it did the X
ray and nothing's broken. But he's had such he's been
such a fragile player his entire career that it's something
to worry about. And he was really one of the
only guys that was hitting. Ramirez h has not been
hot so far, and that's they don't have too many
good bats on this Cleveland team. As I mentioned before,
we've got Gavin Williams against Yamamoto. Yamamotives roughly about a
one seventy favorite, one seventy five favorite right here, total
eight and a half. Yamamoto is a guy that has
been very good, but there was a lot of concerns
coming into the season because he had to pitch so
many innings in the playoffs last year and coming over
from Japan, they don't they don't pitch as often, which
is why the Dodgers are going with the six man rotation.
But he's been good when he's been out there, and
I would expect him to carve up this Cleveland offense
that are a little bit short handed. In this one.
Do I want to lay the price? I'm not so sure.
Gavin Williams a guy who is, granted is pointing out
in the past he's he's a guy that gives up
a lot of walks. And with the Dodgers being such
a good heading team, when you're giving up extra walks
in that, that's not a pretty sight. But if you
take a look at the Dodgers' best players, none of
them have really gotten off to a big start here.
So I think Cleveland's catching the Dodgers at a good
time when their bats are a little cold, especially they're
better players. But I don't trust Cleveland to score more
than probably two to three runs in this game, and
I'm sure the Dodgers will get more than that. So
if I'm gonna play it, I'm on the Dodgers side.
But I've got to find some way to play without
having to lay the two seventy two eighty here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get tokyo Brandon here. That was you know,
the Dodgers in the end, they win, they cover last night,
they win four to one. But kind of like going
off of what Brian says, it certainly wasn't easy bats,
you know, they out hit the Guardians tend to two
in the end, but the bats never really got going.
Good thing. They tacked on those two in the eighth
because the ninth inning got a little dicey there for
a second. But they do get out of the inning,
they win the game four to one. So yeah, talk
to me about Yamamoto the Dodgers, and if you want
to lay that one and a half.
Speaker 3: At home, I mean it could win, but it's still
a hefty price for a minus one and a half
at home, even though it's the Dodgers. But if you
look at these guys how they faced each other. Yamamoto
has a career four fifty eight ops against Cleveland, small
sample size, only seventeen at bats against. Gavin Williams is
one of my chronic walkers. As a matter of fact,
I'm projecting him to walk four guys today. I checked
DraftKings before the show and his walks prop was not
out yet. I imagine it'll be two and a half.
So over two and a half walks for Gavin Williams
might be a way to go in this one. His
career ops against the Dodgers is nine to fifty four.
It's terrible. Seven point fifty is my Mendo's aligned for ops.
So Gavin Williams over in his walks Yamamoto over seventeen
and a half outs. I mean they left Otani in
a lot longer than I thought they would yesterday, So
they'll probably leave Yamamoto in at least six innings if
he's cruising. I don't think there's any early season short
hook for him. And another way to go. Look, when
you have a huge favorite like this, and you really
love the favorite and you think the starter is gonna
go five innings, bet the starter to get the win.
If he goes five innings and the bullpen preserves it,
you can usually get plus money for any pitcher to
get a win, even Yamamoto of cy young candidates. So
Yamoto get the win would be a good plus money
way to bet. If you're in love with the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: You know this is very anti how I usually bet,
But you know I I see a couple of folks
in the chat saying Guardians plus one and a half
as good value. I kind of disagree. I think the
Dodgers are actually the value here, and it's crazy to
say that, being as though they are minus two fifty.
But you know what, last night they were minus two
seventy and I think this is I mean, so what
last night they're minus two seventy two seventy five the Guardians. Now, granted,
I the latter is a relative unknown, but this is
an offense that I think, you know, I think I
coming into the season, I said was gonna be pretty
bad outside of like Jay Ram and Kwan, and the
latter kind of stepped up even though you know, very
very small sample size had that great series in Seattle.
Now you lose him. It's like, I don't understand why
the Dodgers would be a smaller favorite yes yes today
than they wore yesterday. Actually coming off of a four
to one win, you got Yamamoto. I see, I prowb
for me like I prefer Baby to Gavin Williams. I
think the jury's still somewhat out on Williams. I know
that he, you know, kind of had a good enough
season last year. It was definitely a bounce back from
the year before. But I think the Guardians could potentially
be bad. I like the Dodgers minus one and a
half A rare scenario Brian Leonard where I am I
would consider to lay the minus one and a half
with the home team in that minus one fifteen to
minus one Trent twenty range go ahead.
Speaker 2: Well, two things Amadas through thirty three pitches history. So
he's not going to be in there today. Most teams,
you would worry about your closer not being there. But
as we were saying, the Dodgers are loaded in the
back of the bullpen, I don't think that'll make much
of a difference. But to be talked about Otani pitching
longer in the game, I watched the game and they
said Otani's goal this year is to win the Cy
Young Award, or to at least be in and in
contention for it, And with a six man rotation, he
would have to pitch longer in games to get to
the limit limit innings. They got a certain amount of
innings that they've used for years to be considered for
the Cy Young Award, And if he pitches six innings
a game in twenty five starts, he's not going to
get there. So they're going to try to stretch him
out a little bit. So keep that in mind when
you're playing the over props for otanih for better's faced
the rest of the way out and that's the goal.
They said that that was Otani's major goal this year.
He's done everything he can offensively. He's shown that he's
the best hitter in baseball along with Aaron Judge. But
he wants to be the best starting pitcher in baseball also,
So keep that in mind when you're playing the outs.
Props for Otani the rest of the season. Probably good
idea to bet them over.
Speaker 1: I didn't know if you had one more Yeah, I
know I had the mute going. I didn't know if
you had one more thing to add before we move on.
But I'll answer Jimmy here. You know, I don't think
this is the spot to take the minus one only
because you're already paying a little juice on the on
the spread, like for me and TB. I see you nodding.
I'll let you comment on this. For me, I'll utilize
the minus one if it's like if the minus one
and a half is plus money and I can get
a more reasonable price on it. But once you're in
the minus one fifteen minus one twenty range or higher
for the minus one and a half, I think you
just have to take a stand and decide if the
Dodgers are winning by two or more, so I don't
like the minus one in this scenario. It would have
to be minus one and a half or nothing TV
go ahead.
Speaker 3: Minus one is as as my particular rule, minus one
is good when the money line is minus one hundred
and fifty to minus one ninety because you can knock
about a nickel or thirty cents of juice off it,
so you can bring it down to like a one
twenty or a one forty. That's the time you use
a minus one. Someone in the common is saying, Yama
motor to record a win is minus one thirty. I
find that hard to believe. But if that's the case,
I wouldn't do it because you need three things to
happen for your pitcher to get the win. He has
to go five innings, your bullpen has to preserve the win,
and you have to win the game so and you
have to be winning when he comes out. Minus money
for those three things to happen in one game is
not good value. So I would not bet that. If
it's anything plus, I would take it. And Brian made
an excellent point on O Toney, that's right. I was
watching and they said the same thing. They said, that's
basically the only thing he hasn't accomplished so far. He
wants to be the best ever and that is his goal.
So yeah, if he only gets one start a week,
he's going to have to go six innings in those
starts to even be considered.
Speaker 1: I guess we'll call this feature feature game part two.
This one goes earlier. You want to talk about someone
probably going against him for that NLSI Young Award, That
would be Paul Skeens. However, Paul Ski Brian Leonard did
not get himself off to a cy young start, didn't
make it out of the first inning in his first
start of the year. I think he can. He can.
He can mail the invoice to O'Neil Cruz for that.
I don't think that was his fault, although I also
don't think it's fair too like he wasn't sharp. I
can tell you first hand I had the Pirates in
that game. He wasn't sharp. I mean, if O'Neil Cruz
can play even like a you know, high school varsity
level center field, they're probably out of the inning. But
we can't just gloss over the fact that skiing straight up,
did not have it. Now turn back around here, he's
headed on the road. I've got some folks in the
chat saying, oh, Reds at plus money look good to them.
I don't know. I'm not dying to lay that price
with the pirates, but I feel like you're poking the
bear thinking that Paul Skeens is gonna have another bad start.
So I'll send this one of you pirates, Reds And
how are you evaluating schemes after that first performance?
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's if you're on Twitter. Pitcher's list has grading
cards that they put out based on each pitcher's starting start,
and they have their results, and of course the results
weren't good. But I don't think he was that bad
in that game. You see a lot of times where
a guy pitches really well and gets bond, or he
doesn't pitch well and he gets a win. It's something
that I think is very valuable. It's sort of like
a game score in basketball or football, that kind of thing.
I like to look at that, So I don't look
at the final lines. I look at see what they
graded out as for his control, for his stuff and
the results and everything. So I don't think he was
as bad as that, And to be honest with you,
I talked about this the other day. When a pitcher
is on the mound and the defense behind him screws up,
it kind of shakes him a little bit because you
only need twenty seven wins or twenty seven outs in
the game to get the victory, and you just gave
one away. And with the great to happen couple times,
I think it got to him. He's pretty levelheaded guy
in skiing, so I may be misrepresenting it, But would
I consider myself an even keell guy and he would
bother the hell out of me. So I'm throwing that
start out. I'm not paying a lot of attention to it.
The problem is you've got these two teams. I happen
to think they're equal, and if either one of these
teams is any better, it is probably Cincinnati slightly better.
Abbot's a guy who everybody continues to think his stats
are fake because if you look at his results compared
to what he has done, he should not be a good.
But if you take a look at all the Cincinnati
starters the last couple of years, that this is a
flyball park that gives up a lot of home runs.
They don't give up a lot of home runs. The
closer is a flyball pitcher. He had a great season
last year. Something is going on with the coaching in
Cincinnati where they're throwing pitches in which the other team
can not lift the ball and hit it hard. Everybody's
off balance, So pay attention on that one. Cincinnati is
at home that they don't give up many home runs
like they did in the past. But ab It's a guy.
If you trust his results, this is a hell of
a bargain. If you look at him, you say, you know,
he's been a little bit lucky the last couple of years.
I think he's going to eventually come back against him.
Then maybe Skeens is the way. But I'm not gonna
be on Pittsburgh ainst guy.
Speaker 3: I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lay that number, probably sitting it out overall.
And you've got a lefty going for Cincinnati, which is
you know, Pittsburgh only sees one out of every three
or four games, so slightly in Cincinnati, but not enough
to get involved.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Tokyo brand and see if he can
give us. So maybe a different way to look at it.
Because I'm with you. I like Skeens, I like the Pirates.
Can't get there on the price TV you've been We've
had people in the chat ask specifically for your outs
props for the pitching. Paul Skeens has got to go
longer than he did last scheme. But does he go
long enough to get over does he get enough strikeouts?
Talk to me maybe about what we can expect from
Skins today.
Speaker 3: I will put my outs projections on my Twitter x
account Tokyo and Barb Brandon right down right down there.
I'll put them up later today, guys, so check back
and I'll give you my projections for that. Skens is
uber talented. He's arguably not not even arguably, he's a
top two. It's either him or Scooble top picture in MLB,
and no one can argue that. Do you think he's
gonna have two bad games in a row? I don't.
Look Sandy Cofacts, Greg Maddix, all the great ones, Tom
Sever they had bad games. It happens. So don't live
in the moment, live live, live in the big picture.
He's the chances of him having two horrible games in
a row are absolutely close to zero. And what Brian
was saying about pictures getting rattled it. You know, pitching
is like climbing up a mountain. You know, you gotta
get to the top of the mountain. And when when
when your fielders get errors, it's like you slide down
the mountain one foot and you just get more tired.
You know, That's how kind of the mentality. So yeah,
they do get rattled like that. Let's just look in
my rankings. I have Pittsburgh hitting better than Cincinnati. I
got both bullpens being trash right now. Uh. And Andrew Abbott,
like Brian said, he puts up really good numbers. Whether
you believe the numbers or not is up to you,
but he puts up really good numbers. If anything, I
would go under in this game, maybe under first five,
because I think both pitchers are very solid and I
don't think either lineup is that scary. So that's the
way I would go if I were betting this.
Speaker 1: I woke up, you know, with the with the mindset
that I would look at the Pirates. I gave the
Pirates out as my free pick. Yesterday on my Under
the Radar segment, talked about Bubba Chandler. He I guess
he pitched very good, didn't give up a hit walk
six guys, do what you will with that. But the
Pirates did get the win in that game, and it
quite simple. I like the Pirates in this game. I
would only be on the Pirates, but minus one sixties
just not playable to me. So we'll go ahead and
move on from that game. Before we move on and
start sort of going a little bit more rapid fire
in the chat, guys, we have the double play package
up at wager talk dot com. You get to pick two.
I've joked it's like being at Panera, you know, you
get to pick the soup or the or whatever that
actually have not been to Panera probably God, I can't
even tell you at least five years, but I remember
that was their thing. Point is either the three of
us right here whatever to fit your style. Obviously, Tokyo,
Brandon's gonna hit the you know, some of the Asian
baseball markets. I'll do KBO and some Triple A in
addition to MLB. Brian is specifically MLB. You are gonna
get the bang for your bucks doing that combo package.
It is significantly less expensive than do it the taking
two handicappers on their own. So right now we've got
the three day and it is the double play package
that is up on everyone's page, and the options are
nicely set out for you. So there's three different options.
Me tb TV, Brian, ME Brian, you know, and that
is a probably the best deal we've got going for
the baseball season. Brian, I'm gonna come to you here, Ethan.
He says, I want to back Shane Smith in the
White Sox again after Smith got bombed on Opening Day. Yeah,
well I was on that so I do. I think
I do as well. I think I'm in that mindset
as well. The question here though, so I'm gonna go
to Brian because Brian was on the Marlins early in
the series. They didn't get it done for him in
that game, but they did come back with a win
last night. For me personally, I like, I'm kind of
higher than the market on both of these teams. So
I haven't been able to find a way into this series.
But it is interesting because Smith couldn't avoid that one.
That being said, that's sort of been his downfall, the
one bad inning over the course of like you know,
his career to this point. So talk to me about
White Sox Marlins and should even be confident going back
to the well with Smith here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had ended up at the Marlins yesterday as
a play for my clients. Alcantra is about one fifty
one fifty five favorites seven and a half here. That's
the first thing I looked too, because I was looking
about it's back and sees and take a look at Smith, Well,
he took it. Took a look at the numbers. If
you're looking at it, just in the starters, Miami's got
a little bit of an edge. I believe. I believe
that Miami starter is going to go probably about a
full inning longer than the White Sox starter. So there's
some guys in the White Sox bullpen obviously that I like,
some other guys in the longer, longer relief, So that
might make it a little bit even from a strikeout percentage,
I think Smith I'll go probably you know, five strikeouts.
I'll probably get six out of I'll tear. But for
the most part, I prefer the Miami side on it
right now. But I don't want to lay that number.
It's it's a little bit of money has come in
on the dog here. I thought I was gonna like Smith,
but when I take a look at the number, I'm
not getting quite what I wanted to get here, and
I trust Miami's pitching staff a little bit better, so
I'm gonna be piasting on this unfortunately.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm pretty much with you for all the same reasons.
I'm looking for spots to back the White Sox, But
I go back to last year White Sox fifteen and
thirty six and one run games. A big way I'm
trying to play them this year is to find good
spots to back them plus one and a half. It's,
you know, I think that they will likely you know,
they're probably gonna win some of these close games. But
I do think they're going in the right direction, and
that is ultimately the way to look at them. So
to go back to your point, Brian, you're really you
can't be a plus one and a half here at
this price, so you're kind of in this weird, you know,
spot with the way it's priced where you can't take
the White Sox plus one and a half. On the
other side, with the Marlins, I don't think that's a
great money line price either. For me. I'm just surprised
with how how much the market likes the Marlins so far,
because I did not. I thought I was going to
be higher than the market on this team. It looks
like the books have have sort of figured out that
the Marlins might be pretty good now Tokyo, Brianton, I'm
gonna I'm gonna switch gears here and go to a
different game, but kind of like the same way. I'm
trying to back these teams. And the other team that
I really am looking for good spots to back on
the plus one and a half this year is the
Colorado Rockies, now four and oh to start the season
against the number against that plus one and a half. Yesterday,
they finally fall short, get blown out by the Blue Jays.
The final score of that game five to one. Early
start in Toronto. Here the rubber match of this series,
Blue Jay's Rockies. How are you looking at this one?
Speaker 3: Expect pretty much the same as yesterday. I mean, Gusman's
a stud. I mean he used to be a stud.
We discussed this the last time he started. He's not
exactly the same guy he used to be. And yes,
Freeland pitch is better on the road, but who doesn't
pitch better away from Colorado, no big surprise there. So
Gousman's the better pitcher in my opinion, but he does
have pretty poor stats against this team these batters in
his career, so that would kind of scare me away
from I mean, in order to play this, like I
said earlier, you either have to play Galsman to get
the win or you have to lay a one and
a half at home, So I would rather not do that.
Maybe I would play an over just because when I
play overs, I'm always looking at the worst team and
I evaluate whether they can score or not. And I
think they can score on Gousman where I didn't think
they could score yesterday, so I actually had the Blue
Jays in a parlay. But I think today they actually
can score a couple runs on Gousman, and the blue
Jays bullpen has been taxed, so I think an over
in this game would be appropriate. I haven't played it yet,
but if I were to, that's the way i'd go.
Speaker 1: I just want so the reason I put these two
games back to back is because tomorrow you're gonna get
the White Sox against the Blue Jays out in Chicago
to open up that series. Now, we'll talk about that
game tomorrow. Actually tomorrow, I think we're gonna have basically
four feature games, because I think there's only four games
on the schedule. But the reason I bring that up
is I'm just gonna make a general point in this
is something I talked about on my solo segment on
the wager Talk YouTube channel that I do daily called
under the Radar, and I'm gonna bring Brian in to
get his general opinion on this too. The Blue Jays
I think are going to be a fade for me
the next couple of weeks. And the reason I say
that is, of course, we know the Blue Jays are
priced very high in the market. A lot of people
have them near the top of the American League. But
losing Cody Ponce and the fact that they already have
that they already have the starting pitchering starting pitcher, injuries
that they have Burrios, Treya Savage, Chane Bieber right all
in the aisle. I believe Boden France has done for
the year. I think he had surgery. I don't think
we'll see him this season. That was a big like
Ponts holding down that spot was kind of a big deal.
And the corresponding roster move that they made was lazarro
Estrada from from the minors. So that means one of
two things. That either means they're gonna trot him out
there in a start, in which case you should probably
fade him if you see lazare Estrada starting a Major
League Baseball game. Or they're gonna have to sort of
pull Varland from his relief role and do almost like
an opener with Varlin going balk innings. And the reason
that that's bad for the Blue Jays is Varlin's been
one of their better relievers and so if you take
him out of his sort of bullpen spot, I think
that hurts the Blue Jays. So I kind of think
you have no other pitching in the pipeline for the
Blue Jays until some of these other starters come back.
I'm gonna be looking to play against the Jas, so
what I'm hoping for personally, and then I want to
loop Brian in to sort of see what he has
to say about this. I hope the Marlins role today,
and I kind of hope the blue Jays role as well,
because I don't want any part of the Rockies here.
I think this is a bad spot for the Rockies
leaving town already won a game in this series. Give
me a Marlins blowout and a Jay's blowout. Maybe we
can get a nice price on the White Sox for tomorrow.
That's really what I'm hoping for. Brian is nodding. Let's
get Brian in a nice topic.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really think Toronto needs to trade for another picture.
There's Atlanta's in a situation very similar to Toronto, where
we've got a lot of injured guys, and we've already
seen that the guys they have other other than the Aces,
have really struggled. It would not surprise me. Now the
Dodgers don't trade away pitching, but they're so deep in pitching.
I really like some of their guys that didn't make
the rotation. I think Toronto, even though they just played them,
played them in the World Series. They could talk to
Dodgers into giving River, Ryan or somebody else into a package.
That would be the right way to do it, because Toronto,
right now, I'm with you, either play overs or I'm
going to fade their pitchers and you're getting a game
right now with the line the total is only seven
and a half here, so you know, I'm kind of
looking at the over and open eight. It's down to
seven and a half, slightly into the over for me,
but I agree Toronto's a team that right now, at
least from the pitching standpoint, I'm looking to fit.
Speaker 1: All right, Tokyo Brandon, I got to go to you
for this one. I heard a rumor once that you
say Kakuchi does not like pitching during the day. I
think he said something on the along the lines of
he he likes to get like thirteen hours of sleep
and a daytime start really messes up his his sleep
and much rather prefer to pitch at night. That's an
issue for him this afternoon because he's got a one
pm local start at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs. So, Kakuchi,
your guy. I know you love to bring this guy
up last year in Wriglely against Matt Boyd Angels Cubs.
What do you see in this one?
Speaker 3: I actually went in his high school and scouted him
when I was a scout. He went to the same
high school as Otani as well. So uh, it's up
north northeastern Japan. It's quite a ways from Tokyo, but
the countryside. Uh yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: Kikrichi is very very particular about his sleep. And if
you take a look at my Twitter ex, I put
up the starter ops versus the hitters they're facing today,
and I actually juxtaposed my face with Paul Stanley on
the Kiss Destroyer album cover. So, uh, take a look
at that. I don't know, Brian, did you like Kiss?
I'm a huge Kiss fan.
Speaker 2: I kiss when I was when I was a little big.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Cool. So when if you look at that, you'll
see that Matthew Boyd has a career ops of five
seventy two against these batters. Today, Kikichi has an ops
of eight thirty three and seven fifty five. Seven fifty
is my line. And Cubs are coming off a really
bad loss. I think I think they bounced back here.
I never really liked Kikrichi when he came out of
high school. He debated going to the major leagues right
out of high school, and then he decided to sign
in Japan for like two or three years, and then
he went to the major leagues. I really didn't like
his stuff, but the major league scouts were drooling over
him when he came out of high school. Never really
liked his stuff, and I don't like him now, especially
with the Angels. But the Angels certainly are hitting the
ball quite well right now. Their bullpen is the problem.
They've got a Diamondbacks type bullpen situation there, but they're
hitting man. They can whack it as long as Trout's
in that lineup. Never gonna bet an under with that team.
But I think it's time to back the Cubs here
because I think they bounce back from that. Don't live
in the moment, live in the big picture, and the
Cubs are just a better team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll get Brian in on this one quick. Angels
start three and three. I think you and I are
sort of both under the kind of have the same
mindset about this Angels team. But I did note that
they they did gather some interesting pieces, specifically in the bullpen.
So I'm curious if you're looking at it like me,
where it's like they're one or two injuries away from
like complete disaster and like they're three and three, this
team might scrap their way to ten and ten. So
for me, like I need to find the spot where
like the well is gonna you know, the damn is
gonna break if you will with the Angels, but I
don't know that it's like this early in the year.
So like, talk to me about just that mindset and
if you're staying away from them because of that, because
that's one of the reasons that I'm not looking to
play against them at this price just yet.
Speaker 2: I don't see a reason not to play them. To
play the Cubs in this one, I pay for a
service that does a lot of simulations, and they've got Kakuchi.
His strikeout to walk ratio today three point eight to
two point four. That's not what you want on a
starting pitcher. I can't even get two to one on
strikeout percentage. Matthew Boyd pitched a lot better on what
his results were in that first game. I believe he
had a seven to one strike out to walk ratio.
I talked about those pittureless cards. He grated out really
well for there. The result wasn't there. But he's a
guy that is when he's healthy. He's been very good
last year. As the season went on, he hadn't pitched
as many any that many innings ever because he's always
hurt and he tired in the second half of the
season and then his year end numbers weren't as great.
But when he's healthy, he's a guy I'm looking to back,
and his strikeout to walk is six point four to
two point five. I like Boyd here. From an offensive standpoint,
I liked the Cubs offense better than the Angels, although,
to be honest with you, some of the Angels hitters
have gotten up to really nice starts traps I've been
terrific so far talking about guys that have had hit
injury problems. But I kind of liked I kind of
liked the Cubs here. I think that's a good price.
And to get back where Tokyo was talking about playing
a picture to win the simulations today's show, there's not
a single There's only one picture in Major League Baseball
that has more than a fifty chance of getting a victory,
and that's Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies fifty four. So
Yokomoto has only got a forty four percent to get
the victory. You don't want to be laying that kind
of number with him in that regard. So I know
that's something that Brandon does very well on and he
knows it and this just points it points it out
that he does very well.
Speaker 1: In this we move on. Before we move on from
this game, I have to point out the total is six.
The wind appears to be blowing in at Wrigley Field. So, well,
you're the you're kind of the weather guy. I feel
like you've been a You've done a good job of
like sort of gauging that the total is six. That's
the talking point. That is a low total.
Speaker 2: Okay, let me look at the weather here.
Speaker 1: Me. Yeah, I'm seeing six minus one ten the total. Okay,
win again.
Speaker 3: You could see in that bullpen. Are you kidding? The
Cubs can get sicked.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Wrigley field today, the wind is blowing in.
They're expecting twenty six percent less runs than normally, which
is two point twenty eight runs less than normal. Uh,
you're looking at home runs forty percent less, which would
be about zero point eight to nine in the game,
dolls in triples down seventeen percent and singles down three percent.
So if you're not going to hit home runs, they'll
probably be one. Basically, what they're saying, this is probably
gonna be one home run hit in this game, and
they're going to be two two and a quarter runs
less than normal, and you've got a situation here where
we've got a really good picture for the Cubs. Maybe
we play the Angels team total under something to that effect.
But I don't want any part.
Speaker 1: Of the Angels in this game, all right, Tokyo Brandon,
before I come to you for your best bets, Truth
in the chat says I've never bought a pick. I've
subbed once to someone who made me money for free. Listen,
that's fine. This show is free. We love having you here. Uh.
We don't get paid extra to do this. So if
you want to support, the way to do that is
to buy the picks. And people ask all the time
while you come on the show. You know you don't
give out many picks. It's like, if you want the picks,
they're at They're they're on they're at wager talk on sale.
I don't know how to sugarcoat that, Like we that
is what we do. That's that's how we make a
living in addition to betting games. So it's like, you
know that that is how you get the picks. However,
you're gonna get best bets at the end of this show.
So if you're if you've made it this far, the
picks are coming up, and we've got a great special
on the wager Talk site that basically gives you two
for one, so listen. If you don't want to buy
the picks, no problem. We appreciate like subscribes. Just the
views help us significantly if you do. That's what the
picks are for, and you actually get the picks. Tokyo, Brandon,
what is your pick for today? What is your best
bet for the show?
Speaker 3: I've given out five picks on this show, and if
you can't disseminate from that, then you're never gonna win
sports betting. Anyway. You should pick up knitting. My play
for this is going to be the I'm gonna cheat again.
I'm gonna take the Phillies on the money line today.
It's minus two ninety or something like that, but I'm
gonna do it.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do.
Speaker 3: It because we're trying to win a parlay leg. Granted, now,
don't give me all this hate in the comments and say,
oh professional giving out two ninety. I'm not. I would
never make that a client play. I'm only giving that
out because it's a parlay leg and we're trying to
win a parlay, so I'm gonna go with the Phillies
on the money line. I like Christopher Sanchez. The list
that I put up on my Twitter X with the
starters and their ops against the team they're facing. Christopher
Sanchez is a five sixteen, well under the seven fifty.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Phillies and let me promote,
like Adam said earlier, double play, you can get either
one of us to either two of us, and you
can leave one of us out. Uh, and you get
three days full access for those two kappers. I believe
it's around fifty dollars, so that includes all our five
percent plays as well.
Speaker 1: You know what tb the Phillies is all. I don't
hate the Phillies call for the parlat it's only minus
I see like minus two sixty to sixty five. I
don't know if like maybe Brian can give us like
what a fair sort of market price on that is.
But like the other thing too, and Brian just sort
of pointed out, like Sanchez has the best chance to
record a win today. So if someone wants to not
use the the parlay or not use the minus two
sixty five. They could always just go that route and
maybe go Sanches to record a win. Brian, before you
get into your best bet for the show, your parlay league,
can you tell me what we should be putting in
the parlay for the Phillies.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing basically one seventy seventy or two skin
excuse me, two seventy two seventy five on that.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go to seventy five. Again, it's a
three team or so we're gonna get plus money pretty
much regardless of what you what Brian and our I select.
But I think the talking point for the show TV
was was good and Brian sort of hammered that point
home with the just this percentage on Sanchez to get
a win. Uh, Brian, do you have that march?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 1: What is the do you know what the price would
be on that that? I don't hold on?
Speaker 2: Let me let me check. Well, like I said, he
had fifty four percent chance of getting the win, So
I don't know what the current number is on that.
Speaker 1: That's okay. I was really just offering it up as
someone if you didn't want, if you couldn't you somehow
find a way to use Phillies on the money line.
I do think that that's a decent alternate market to
look at. Okay, Brian, you have the floor best bets.
What do you have going on at the website today?
And you know what are you locking in for this
parlay Lake?
Speaker 2: Okay at six thirty am, I have not put up
any plays for any clients. I'm doing the Hockey Show
when I finished this, so my players will be up
a little bit later today. So I've got I can't
tell you what I've got because I don't know what
I have at this point, but I'm gonna use the under.
In the Boston game yesterday, I talked about Boston on
the show, and to the credit of our excellent audience,
they were talking about how Boston was struggling hitting and
they continue to do that. Boston's got Burrows or excuse me,
a Burrows is going for Houston in today's game. You
got hit pretty hard in the first game out new team.
I've talked about that in the past, when you come
over to a new team, I don't like to play
them the first time, and it's been a lot of
a lot of players are struggled in that regard. But
I do like Burrows. Burrows is a guy that was
hot in the offseason, and if you take a lot
look at him against the right handed batters, twenty five
point three this was last year, twenty five point three
stric out rate, only four point five walk rate. It's
over a twenty point strike out to walk grade against readies.
And you'll be facing six readies in this lineup. And
obviously you've got one of the aces in Major League
Baseball going for going for the Red Sox today, and
that would be Garrett Crochet. And I'm not a big
fan of this Houston offense. Trigger and I both think
Houston's a little bit overrated this season. In the total seven,
it opened seven and a half with heavy juice, and
now just about everybody out there, I'm only seeing one
seven and a half under thirty five. I'll I'll take
it under. I'll take it under the seven. You lay
about minus one oh five in that regard. So give
me Boston Houston under on a day game, and I
believe it's a It's the getaway game, and keep that
in mind when they have the getaway games, even though
they have the strike zone situation right now, if you
watched any of the games yesterday. The umpires continue to
make a lot of bad calls, but the team doesn't
want to challenge them because you don't want to lose
one or two challenges, so the umpires. Until the umpires
are gone and they just use the computers, you're going
to find a lot of bad calls and that's going
to continue. So both of these pitchers are very good
at their location. So I'm gonna play this game under
the total of seven and that'll be my parlay on
today's card.
Speaker 1: Yes since we you know, since we we've already talked
about my legs, So I'm gonna I'm gonna sort of
like use this time to finish talking about this game.
Two things like one, we talked about the Red Sox
sort of sort of hitting woes and not. You know,
that was sort of my deterrent from playing them yesterday,
was that I just didn't like what I saw out
of the offense all weekend and then on Monday when
they lost eight to one, and they come out last
night can't hit again nine to two. So I don't
really you know, just as far as you're unders concerned,
I want I really don't want part of these Red
Sox bats until they show something a little bit of life.
You go back to Sunday's game, just that one home
run and really didn't have many other scoring chances in
that game. And then my very first Under the Radar
episode and I'll bring Tokyo brand in here to talk
to comment on this game as well. My first episode
was entirely dedicated to talking about Mike Burrows change of
scenery in an organization that may actually help him get
over the hump as a pitcher. I felt like he
was a little bit of the odd man out in
terms of, like the Pirates having all these prospects, he
was the expendable one, you know, they needed to add some.
I think that was part of the three team deal
where Jacob Melton ended up with the Rays of the
Pirates got back. I think Brandon Lowe, who's been great
for them, and then the Houston Astros got a starter
who they kind of desperately need. So I'm sort of
pro Burrows. He had six strikeouts in that first game.
I thought his stuff looked good despite maybe not getting
like the overall result. So Brian, I'm with you here.
Under Under makes a lot of sense. Sevens are tough,
but it's it's kind of the right way to look here,
TV Red Sox Astros to you before I close it down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, both both teams lineups a little underwhelming, But I'm
on board with you guys. I'm I'm not. I don't
have high hopes for the Astros this year. They do
have good pitching. H Crochet is one of the elite pitchers,
top five pitcher in Major League Baseball without a doubt.
He's got pretty bad numbers against these batters in his career.
But I wouldn't shy away from the under. Like you
guys mentioned, I agree that burrows first start was you know,
jitters being on a new team or whatnot start first
start of the season. Everyone's gonna have a bad game.
I mean, Skeen's had a bad game and he's one
of the best in MLBS. So you gotta you gotta
be able to throw. It's it's like gymnastics judges. You
got to throw the low score away and take the
take the mean. So uh yeah, I expect an under
in this one as well.
Speaker 1: And I don't even think it's fair to say Burrows
had like a bad start like he've pitched into the
sixth inning. Yeah, he gave up five runs. That's less
than you know, it's less than ideal. But still, I
mean he went into the sixth he had six strikeouts.
Like to me, like, that's I think that that's a
start he could build off of. So I think this
was a good, good pull there, Brian. I you got
Crochet on the other side when he's on forget it,
like that's this. This has three two written all over it.
Three one two to one. Yeah, that's it. That's a
good call. And then someone in the chat just to
you know, Astro's plus one thirty or whatever they are. Listen,
you're you're not gonna find me on the Red Sox
until they they give me a little bit more of
a reason to think that they're gonna turn in the
other direction. So I said, yesterday I made the analogy
of like, you know, I'm hitting the check like I'm
playing poker. I want to see one more before I
jump in with the Red Sox. Well, I saw another
card it didn't like yesterday, and so I'll be passing here.
It's certainly not going to turn around and lay a
price with them. Sort of mired in this slump right now,
So go ahead, TV.
Speaker 3: Quick point about that, just very quickly. Yes, Crochet is
an awesome pitcher, but if you think there's only gonna
be five runs in this game his five innings, if
he can shut them down to zero or one, it's
kind of negligible. So a low score kind of negates
good pitching. So I wouldn't be against the Astros plus
money either. I haven't bet it though.
Speaker 1: I don't need the time for the best bets because
my best bet was the first game we talked about.
I'm laying the minus one and a half with the Dodgers.
I think they probably destroy the Guardians today. I think
that was a really just a cru Just the way
that all played out yesterday was sort of like soul
crushing for the Guardians. They have this exciting young player
that comes in, they lose him. You know, they're in
a tight game and they kind of let it slip
at the end they lose four to one. They did
get their winning this series. I think mentally like they
probably said, oh, if we can win one out in LA,
that's you know, especially coming off of the split with
the Mariners, will take that. They've got that side kind
of feel the same about the Rockies from a mentality
standpoint too. Hey, we did what we came here to do.
We got one, So I'll lay the minus one and
a half with the Dodgers. I just think that there's
I've got about a two over a two run difference
on my projection with those teams, So I'm comfortable with
laying the minus one and a half minus one twenty
not going to be a client play, but for the parlay,
I like that quite a bit. And listen, if you
want to take less risk for less payout, you could
always just put the money line in there. But I'm
going to go with the minus one and a half
in this scenario. Give us some respectable odds for this one.
Guys on our page the double play, choose any of
the two handicappers. I've got one client play locked in
for today. I know my co hosts are going to
have them as well. You know individual packages will be
up there, But the better way to do it is
the double play that you pick too. If you will,
you know two of the panelists on here. We'll be
back for more total bases nine am tomorrow and quick
programming note. Full Court Press will be back every weekday
until the championship game. So Rob Vino and I in
about fifteen minutes. If college basketball is your thing, are
back live right here and we will be here Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
and then Monday to close down the season. So if
you're not in the basketball, I'll see at nine am tomorrow.
If you are, i'll see you in fifteen minutes after
I go refill my water. Have a great day everyone.
We'll see you guys tomorrow. For more total bases,