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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total Bases.

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I've got Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon with me in

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for the next forty five minutes. We are going to

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work our way through the hump Day slate, the Wednesday slate,

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a lot of day games today. We were just kind

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of talking off air, hasn't been as many day games

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as usual early in the season, and suddenly we get

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like a pretty much an entire slate of day games today.

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But we're gonna start with what I'll call our feature

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game today. I'm gonna call it the feature because A

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it's the Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers, who are almost

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always a feature, and b it's one of our only

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sort of primetime games, one of the only games going

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on tonight. And so I'll start with Brian Leonard here

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because this is his Cleveland Guardians. Last night, they lose

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four to one, but more importantly, Brian, they lose Chase

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de Latter, who was kind of the you know that

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the bright spot in the early going for this Guardian's team.

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Now it's gonna be Gavin Williams, Yoshinova, Yamamoto, how are

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you seeing Guardians Dodgers out in Chevez Raviene tonight.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a heartbreaking thing. We don't know yet

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what's happened. They said they did it did the X

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ray and nothing's broken. But he's had such he's been

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such a fragile player his entire career that it's something

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to worry about. And he was really one of the

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only guys that was hitting. Ramirez h has not been

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hot so far, and that's they don't have too many

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good bats on this Cleveland team. As I mentioned before,

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we've got Gavin Williams against Yamamoto. Yamamotives roughly about a

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one seventy favorite, one seventy five favorite right here, total

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eight and a half. Yamamoto is a guy that has

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been very good, but there was a lot of concerns

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coming into the season because he had to pitch so

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many innings in the playoffs last year and coming over

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from Japan, they don't they don't pitch as often, which

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is why the Dodgers are going with the six man rotation.

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But he's been good when he's been out there, and

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I would expect him to carve up this Cleveland offense

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that are a little bit short handed. In this one.

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Do I want to lay the price? I'm not so sure.

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Gavin Williams a guy who is, granted is pointing out

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in the past he's he's a guy that gives up

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a lot of walks. And with the Dodgers being such

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a good heading team, when you're giving up extra walks

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in that, that's not a pretty sight. But if you

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take a look at the Dodgers' best players, none of

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them have really gotten off to a big start here.

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So I think Cleveland's catching the Dodgers at a good

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time when their bats are a little cold, especially they're

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better players. But I don't trust Cleveland to score more

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than probably two to three runs in this game, and

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I'm sure the Dodgers will get more than that. So

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if I'm gonna play it, I'm on the Dodgers side.

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But I've got to find some way to play without

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having to lay the two seventy two eighty here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get tokyo Brandon here. That was you know,

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the Dodgers in the end, they win, they cover last night,

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they win four to one. But kind of like going

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off of what Brian says, it certainly wasn't easy bats,

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you know, they out hit the Guardians tend to two

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in the end, but the bats never really got going.

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Good thing. They tacked on those two in the eighth

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because the ninth inning got a little dicey there for

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a second. But they do get out of the inning,

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they win the game four to one. So yeah, talk

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to me about Yamamoto the Dodgers, and if you want

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to lay that one and a half.

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Speaker 3: At home, I mean it could win, but it's still

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a hefty price for a minus one and a half

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at home, even though it's the Dodgers. But if you

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look at these guys how they faced each other. Yamamoto

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has a career four fifty eight ops against Cleveland, small

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sample size, only seventeen at bats against. Gavin Williams is

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one of my chronic walkers. As a matter of fact,

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I'm projecting him to walk four guys today. I checked

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DraftKings before the show and his walks prop was not

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out yet. I imagine it'll be two and a half.

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So over two and a half walks for Gavin Williams

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might be a way to go in this one. His

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career ops against the Dodgers is nine to fifty four.

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It's terrible. Seven point fifty is my Mendo's aligned for ops.

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So Gavin Williams over in his walks Yamamoto over seventeen

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and a half outs. I mean they left Otani in

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a lot longer than I thought they would yesterday, So

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they'll probably leave Yamamoto in at least six innings if

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he's cruising. I don't think there's any early season short

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hook for him. And another way to go. Look, when

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you have a huge favorite like this, and you really

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love the favorite and you think the starter is gonna

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go five innings, bet the starter to get the win.

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If he goes five innings and the bullpen preserves it,

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you can usually get plus money for any pitcher to

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get a win, even Yamamoto of cy young candidates. So

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Yamoto get the win would be a good plus money

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way to bet. If you're in love with the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: You know this is very anti how I usually bet,

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But you know I I see a couple of folks

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in the chat saying Guardians plus one and a half

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as good value. I kind of disagree. I think the

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Dodgers are actually the value here, and it's crazy to

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say that, being as though they are minus two fifty.

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But you know what, last night they were minus two

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seventy and I think this is I mean, so what

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last night they're minus two seventy two seventy five the Guardians. Now, granted,

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I the latter is a relative unknown, but this is

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an offense that I think, you know, I think I

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coming into the season, I said was gonna be pretty

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bad outside of like Jay Ram and Kwan, and the

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latter kind of stepped up even though you know, very

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very small sample size had that great series in Seattle.

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Now you lose him. It's like, I don't understand why

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the Dodgers would be a smaller favorite yes yes today

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than they wore yesterday. Actually coming off of a four

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to one win, you got Yamamoto. I see, I prowb

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for me like I prefer Baby to Gavin Williams. I

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think the jury's still somewhat out on Williams. I know

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that he, you know, kind of had a good enough

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season last year. It was definitely a bounce back from

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the year before. But I think the Guardians could potentially

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be bad. I like the Dodgers minus one and a

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half A rare scenario Brian Leonard where I am I

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would consider to lay the minus one and a half

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with the home team in that minus one fifteen to

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minus one Trent twenty range go ahead.

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Speaker 2: Well, two things Amadas through thirty three pitches history. So

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he's not going to be in there today. Most teams,

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you would worry about your closer not being there. But

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as we were saying, the Dodgers are loaded in the

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back of the bullpen, I don't think that'll make much

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of a difference. But to be talked about Otani pitching

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longer in the game, I watched the game and they

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said Otani's goal this year is to win the Cy

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Young Award, or to at least be in and in

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contention for it, And with a six man rotation, he

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would have to pitch longer in games to get to

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the limit limit innings. They got a certain amount of

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innings that they've used for years to be considered for

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the Cy Young Award, And if he pitches six innings

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a game in twenty five starts, he's not going to

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get there. So they're going to try to stretch him

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out a little bit. So keep that in mind when

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you're playing the over props for otanih for better's faced

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the rest of the way out and that's the goal.

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They said that that was Otani's major goal this year.

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He's done everything he can offensively. He's shown that he's

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the best hitter in baseball along with Aaron Judge. But

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he wants to be the best starting pitcher in baseball also,

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So keep that in mind when you're playing the outs.

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Props for Otani the rest of the season. Probably good

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idea to bet them over.

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Speaker 1: I didn't know if you had one more Yeah, I

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know I had the mute going. I didn't know if

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you had one more thing to add before we move on.

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But I'll answer Jimmy here. You know, I don't think

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this is the spot to take the minus one only

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because you're already paying a little juice on the on

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the spread, like for me and TB. I see you nodding.

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I'll let you comment on this. For me, I'll utilize

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the minus one if it's like if the minus one

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and a half is plus money and I can get

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a more reasonable price on it. But once you're in

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the minus one fifteen minus one twenty range or higher

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for the minus one and a half, I think you

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just have to take a stand and decide if the

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Dodgers are winning by two or more, so I don't

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like the minus one in this scenario. It would have

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to be minus one and a half or nothing TV

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go ahead.

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Speaker 3: Minus one is as as my particular rule, minus one

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is good when the money line is minus one hundred

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and fifty to minus one ninety because you can knock

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about a nickel or thirty cents of juice off it,

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so you can bring it down to like a one

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twenty or a one forty. That's the time you use

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a minus one. Someone in the common is saying, Yama

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motor to record a win is minus one thirty. I

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find that hard to believe. But if that's the case,

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I wouldn't do it because you need three things to

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happen for your pitcher to get the win. He has

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to go five innings, your bullpen has to preserve the win,

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and you have to win the game so and you

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have to be winning when he comes out. Minus money

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for those three things to happen in one game is

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not good value. So I would not bet that. If

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it's anything plus, I would take it. And Brian made

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an excellent point on O Toney, that's right. I was

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watching and they said the same thing. They said, that's

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basically the only thing he hasn't accomplished so far. He

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wants to be the best ever and that is his goal.

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So yeah, if he only gets one start a week,

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he's going to have to go six innings in those

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starts to even be considered.

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Speaker 1: I guess we'll call this feature feature game part two.

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This one goes earlier. You want to talk about someone

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probably going against him for that NLSI Young Award, That

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would be Paul Skeens. However, Paul Ski Brian Leonard did

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not get himself off to a cy young start, didn't

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make it out of the first inning in his first

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start of the year. I think he can. He can.

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He can mail the invoice to O'Neil Cruz for that.

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I don't think that was his fault, although I also

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don't think it's fair too like he wasn't sharp. I

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can tell you first hand I had the Pirates in

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that game. He wasn't sharp. I mean, if O'Neil Cruz

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can play even like a you know, high school varsity

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level center field, they're probably out of the inning. But

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we can't just gloss over the fact that skiing straight up,

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did not have it. Now turn back around here, he's

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headed on the road. I've got some folks in the

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chat saying, oh, Reds at plus money look good to them.

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I don't know. I'm not dying to lay that price

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with the pirates, but I feel like you're poking the

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bear thinking that Paul Skeens is gonna have another bad start.

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So I'll send this one of you pirates, Reds And

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how are you evaluating schemes after that first performance?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's if you're on Twitter. Pitcher's list has grading

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cards that they put out based on each pitcher's starting start,

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and they have their results, and of course the results

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weren't good. But I don't think he was that bad

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in that game. You see a lot of times where

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a guy pitches really well and gets bond, or he

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doesn't pitch well and he gets a win. It's something

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that I think is very valuable. It's sort of like

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a game score in basketball or football, that kind of thing.

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I like to look at that, So I don't look

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at the final lines. I look at see what they

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graded out as for his control, for his stuff and

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the results and everything. So I don't think he was

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as bad as that, And to be honest with you,

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I talked about this the other day. When a pitcher

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is on the mound and the defense behind him screws up,

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it kind of shakes him a little bit because you

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only need twenty seven wins or twenty seven outs in

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the game to get the victory, and you just gave

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one away. And with the great to happen couple times,

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I think it got to him. He's pretty levelheaded guy

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in skiing, so I may be misrepresenting it, But would

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I consider myself an even keell guy and he would

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bother the hell out of me. So I'm throwing that

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start out. I'm not paying a lot of attention to it.

241
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The problem is you've got these two teams. I happen

242
00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,039
to think they're equal, and if either one of these

243
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,600
teams is any better, it is probably Cincinnati slightly better.

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Abbot's a guy who everybody continues to think his stats

245
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:35,799
are fake because if you look at his results compared

246
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,720
to what he has done, he should not be a good.

247
00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:41,279
But if you take a look at all the Cincinnati

248
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,240
starters the last couple of years, that this is a

249
00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,039
flyball park that gives up a lot of home runs.

250
00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,799
They don't give up a lot of home runs. The

251
00:12:48,879 --> 00:12:52,960
closer is a flyball pitcher. He had a great season

252
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,080
last year. Something is going on with the coaching in

253
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,759
Cincinnati where they're throwing pitches in which the other team

254
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can not lift the ball and hit it hard. Everybody's

255
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off balance, So pay attention on that one. Cincinnati is

256
00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:08,519
at home that they don't give up many home runs

257
00:13:08,519 --> 00:13:10,960
like they did in the past. But ab It's a guy.

258
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If you trust his results, this is a hell of

259
00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,840
a bargain. If you look at him, you say, you know,

260
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he's been a little bit lucky the last couple of years.

261
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I think he's going to eventually come back against him.

262
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Then maybe Skeens is the way. But I'm not gonna

263
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be on Pittsburgh ainst guy.

264
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Speaker 3: I'm with you.

265
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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lay that number, probably sitting it out overall.

266
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And you've got a lefty going for Cincinnati, which is

267
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you know, Pittsburgh only sees one out of every three

268
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or four games, so slightly in Cincinnati, but not enough

269
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to get involved.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Tokyo brand and see if he can

271
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give us. So maybe a different way to look at it.

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Because I'm with you. I like Skeens, I like the Pirates.

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Can't get there on the price TV you've been We've

274
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had people in the chat ask specifically for your outs

275
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props for the pitching. Paul Skeens has got to go

276
00:13:57,919 --> 00:13:59,679
longer than he did last scheme. But does he go

277
00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:02,600
long enough to get over does he get enough strikeouts?

278
00:14:02,639 --> 00:14:04,759
Talk to me maybe about what we can expect from

279
00:14:04,759 --> 00:14:05,440
Skins today.

280
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,440
Speaker 3: I will put my outs projections on my Twitter x

281
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account Tokyo and Barb Brandon right down right down there.

282
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I'll put them up later today, guys, so check back

283
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and I'll give you my projections for that. Skens is

284
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:24,799
uber talented. He's arguably not not even arguably, he's a

285
00:14:24,919 --> 00:14:28,120
top two. It's either him or Scooble top picture in MLB,

286
00:14:28,399 --> 00:14:31,559
and no one can argue that. Do you think he's

287
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,559
gonna have two bad games in a row? I don't.

288
00:14:34,519 --> 00:14:38,559
Look Sandy Cofacts, Greg Maddix, all the great ones, Tom

289
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,480
Sever they had bad games. It happens. So don't live

290
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,679
in the moment, live live, live in the big picture.

291
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:49,200
He's the chances of him having two horrible games in

292
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:54,759
a row are absolutely close to zero. And what Brian

293
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,559
was saying about pictures getting rattled it. You know, pitching

294
00:14:57,639 --> 00:14:59,960
is like climbing up a mountain. You know, you gotta

295
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,399
get to the top of the mountain. And when when

296
00:15:02,559 --> 00:15:05,639
when your fielders get errors, it's like you slide down

297
00:15:05,639 --> 00:15:07,960
the mountain one foot and you just get more tired.

298
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,600
You know, That's how kind of the mentality. So yeah,

299
00:15:10,639 --> 00:15:14,279
they do get rattled like that. Let's just look in

300
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:18,120
my rankings. I have Pittsburgh hitting better than Cincinnati. I

301
00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:23,039
got both bullpens being trash right now. Uh. And Andrew Abbott,

302
00:15:23,279 --> 00:15:25,559
like Brian said, he puts up really good numbers. Whether

303
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,200
you believe the numbers or not is up to you,

304
00:15:28,279 --> 00:15:30,919
but he puts up really good numbers. If anything, I

305
00:15:30,919 --> 00:15:33,360
would go under in this game, maybe under first five,

306
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:36,840
because I think both pitchers are very solid and I

307
00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:40,080
don't think either lineup is that scary. So that's the

308
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:41,440
way I would go if I were betting this.

309
00:15:43,519 --> 00:15:46,519
Speaker 1: I woke up, you know, with the with the mindset

310
00:15:46,559 --> 00:15:48,440
that I would look at the Pirates. I gave the

311
00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,759
Pirates out as my free pick. Yesterday on my Under

312
00:15:51,759 --> 00:15:56,039
the Radar segment, talked about Bubba Chandler. He I guess

313
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:59,039
he pitched very good, didn't give up a hit walk

314
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,080
six guys, do what you will with that. But the

315
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,960
Pirates did get the win in that game, and it

316
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,519
quite simple. I like the Pirates in this game. I

317
00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:10,360
would only be on the Pirates, but minus one sixties

318
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,440
just not playable to me. So we'll go ahead and

319
00:16:13,519 --> 00:16:15,639
move on from that game. Before we move on and

320
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:17,960
start sort of going a little bit more rapid fire

321
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,120
in the chat, guys, we have the double play package

322
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,120
up at wager talk dot com. You get to pick two.

323
00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:26,120
I've joked it's like being at Panera, you know, you

324
00:16:26,159 --> 00:16:28,480
get to pick the soup or the or whatever that

325
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,720
actually have not been to Panera probably God, I can't

326
00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,080
even tell you at least five years, but I remember

327
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,559
that was their thing. Point is either the three of

328
00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:42,000
us right here whatever to fit your style. Obviously, Tokyo,

329
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,799
Brandon's gonna hit the you know, some of the Asian

330
00:16:44,799 --> 00:16:48,480
baseball markets. I'll do KBO and some Triple A in

331
00:16:48,519 --> 00:16:53,159
addition to MLB. Brian is specifically MLB. You are gonna

332
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,480
get the bang for your bucks doing that combo package.

333
00:16:56,519 --> 00:17:00,399
It is significantly less expensive than do it the taking

334
00:17:00,399 --> 00:17:03,279
two handicappers on their own. So right now we've got

335
00:17:03,279 --> 00:17:05,759
the three day and it is the double play package

336
00:17:05,759 --> 00:17:08,279
that is up on everyone's page, and the options are

337
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:12,000
nicely set out for you. So there's three different options.

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00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,960
Me tb TV, Brian, ME Brian, you know, and that

339
00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:19,799
is a probably the best deal we've got going for

340
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:24,119
the baseball season. Brian, I'm gonna come to you here, Ethan.

341
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:26,519
He says, I want to back Shane Smith in the

342
00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:30,200
White Sox again after Smith got bombed on Opening Day. Yeah,

343
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,000
well I was on that so I do. I think

344
00:17:34,079 --> 00:17:37,680
I do as well. I think I'm in that mindset

345
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,799
as well. The question here though, so I'm gonna go

346
00:17:41,839 --> 00:17:44,480
to Brian because Brian was on the Marlins early in

347
00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:46,640
the series. They didn't get it done for him in

348
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,880
that game, but they did come back with a win

349
00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:52,039
last night. For me personally, I like, I'm kind of

350
00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:53,920
higher than the market on both of these teams. So

351
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,079
I haven't been able to find a way into this series.

352
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,880
But it is interesting because Smith couldn't avoid that one.

353
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,599
That being said, that's sort of been his downfall, the

354
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,240
one bad inning over the course of like you know,

355
00:18:06,319 --> 00:18:08,880
his career to this point. So talk to me about

356
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:13,119
White Sox Marlins and should even be confident going back

357
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:14,200
to the well with Smith here.

358
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had ended up at the Marlins yesterday as

359
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:25,160
a play for my clients. Alcantra is about one fifty

360
00:18:25,319 --> 00:18:28,319
one fifty five favorites seven and a half here. That's

361
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,079
the first thing I looked too, because I was looking

362
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,960
about it's back and sees and take a look at Smith, Well,

363
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,039
he took it. Took a look at the numbers. If

364
00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:42,160
you're looking at it, just in the starters, Miami's got

365
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,359
a little bit of an edge. I believe. I believe

366
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,119
that Miami starter is going to go probably about a

367
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:51,279
full inning longer than the White Sox starter. So there's

368
00:18:51,319 --> 00:18:55,119
some guys in the White Sox bullpen obviously that I like,

369
00:18:56,039 --> 00:18:58,559
some other guys in the longer, longer relief, So that

370
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:03,359
might make it a little bit even from a strikeout percentage,

371
00:19:03,559 --> 00:19:07,599
I think Smith I'll go probably you know, five strikeouts.

372
00:19:07,599 --> 00:19:11,119
I'll probably get six out of I'll tear. But for

373
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:15,839
the most part, I prefer the Miami side on it

374
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,559
right now. But I don't want to lay that number.

375
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,279
It's it's a little bit of money has come in

376
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,319
on the dog here. I thought I was gonna like Smith,

377
00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:28,039
but when I take a look at the number, I'm

378
00:19:28,039 --> 00:19:31,519
not getting quite what I wanted to get here, and

379
00:19:32,039 --> 00:19:35,039
I trust Miami's pitching staff a little bit better, so

380
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,200
I'm gonna be piasting on this unfortunately.

381
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm pretty much with you for all the same reasons.

382
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,680
I'm looking for spots to back the White Sox, But

383
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,359
I go back to last year White Sox fifteen and

384
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,119
thirty six and one run games. A big way I'm

385
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,680
trying to play them this year is to find good

386
00:19:53,759 --> 00:19:56,160
spots to back them plus one and a half. It's,

387
00:19:56,759 --> 00:20:00,079
you know, I think that they will likely you know,

388
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,039
they're probably gonna win some of these close games. But

389
00:20:02,799 --> 00:20:05,319
I do think they're going in the right direction, and

390
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,359
that is ultimately the way to look at them. So

391
00:20:08,599 --> 00:20:11,319
to go back to your point, Brian, you're really you

392
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:12,960
can't be a plus one and a half here at

393
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,039
this price, so you're kind of in this weird, you know,

394
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,680
spot with the way it's priced where you can't take

395
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,799
the White Sox plus one and a half. On the

396
00:20:20,839 --> 00:20:22,839
other side, with the Marlins, I don't think that's a

397
00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:25,599
great money line price either. For me. I'm just surprised

398
00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:28,920
with how how much the market likes the Marlins so far,

399
00:20:29,079 --> 00:20:31,240
because I did not. I thought I was going to

400
00:20:31,279 --> 00:20:33,319
be higher than the market on this team. It looks

401
00:20:33,319 --> 00:20:35,599
like the books have have sort of figured out that

402
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,480
the Marlins might be pretty good now Tokyo, Brianton, I'm

403
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,960
gonna I'm gonna switch gears here and go to a

404
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,680
different game, but kind of like the same way. I'm

405
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,039
trying to back these teams. And the other team that

406
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,720
I really am looking for good spots to back on

407
00:20:50,799 --> 00:20:52,240
the plus one and a half this year is the

408
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,960
Colorado Rockies, now four and oh to start the season

409
00:20:57,039 --> 00:21:00,160
against the number against that plus one and a half. Yesterday,

410
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:04,839
they finally fall short, get blown out by the Blue Jays.

411
00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:07,720
The final score of that game five to one. Early

412
00:21:07,799 --> 00:21:11,039
start in Toronto. Here the rubber match of this series,

413
00:21:11,519 --> 00:21:13,799
Blue Jay's Rockies. How are you looking at this one?

414
00:21:16,039 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 3: Expect pretty much the same as yesterday. I mean, Gusman's

415
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,279
a stud. I mean he used to be a stud.

416
00:21:22,079 --> 00:21:25,440
We discussed this the last time he started. He's not

417
00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:27,880
exactly the same guy he used to be. And yes,

418
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,039
Freeland pitch is better on the road, but who doesn't

419
00:21:31,079 --> 00:21:37,880
pitch better away from Colorado, no big surprise there. So

420
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,319
Gousman's the better pitcher in my opinion, but he does

421
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,759
have pretty poor stats against this team these batters in

422
00:21:45,799 --> 00:21:49,160
his career, so that would kind of scare me away

423
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,440
from I mean, in order to play this, like I

424
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,759
said earlier, you either have to play Galsman to get

425
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:56,720
the win or you have to lay a one and

426
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,799
a half at home, So I would rather not do that.

427
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,160
Maybe I would play an over just because when I

428
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,119
play overs, I'm always looking at the worst team and

429
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,599
I evaluate whether they can score or not. And I

430
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:16,200
think they can score on Gousman where I didn't think

431
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,079
they could score yesterday, so I actually had the Blue

432
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:24,200
Jays in a parlay. But I think today they actually

433
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,880
can score a couple runs on Gousman, and the blue

434
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,240
Jays bullpen has been taxed, so I think an over

435
00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:33,720
in this game would be appropriate. I haven't played it yet,

436
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,640
but if I were to, that's the way i'd go.

437
00:22:38,039 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: I just want so the reason I put these two

438
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,680
games back to back is because tomorrow you're gonna get

439
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,440
the White Sox against the Blue Jays out in Chicago

440
00:22:48,079 --> 00:22:49,960
to open up that series. Now, we'll talk about that

441
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,960
game tomorrow. Actually tomorrow, I think we're gonna have basically

442
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,279
four feature games, because I think there's only four games

443
00:22:55,279 --> 00:22:57,440
on the schedule. But the reason I bring that up

444
00:22:57,519 --> 00:23:00,039
is I'm just gonna make a general point in this

445
00:23:00,079 --> 00:23:03,359
is something I talked about on my solo segment on

446
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,599
the wager Talk YouTube channel that I do daily called

447
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,319
under the Radar, and I'm gonna bring Brian in to

448
00:23:09,319 --> 00:23:12,480
get his general opinion on this too. The Blue Jays

449
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:14,920
I think are going to be a fade for me

450
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,559
the next couple of weeks. And the reason I say

451
00:23:17,599 --> 00:23:20,240
that is, of course, we know the Blue Jays are

452
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,240
priced very high in the market. A lot of people

453
00:23:22,279 --> 00:23:25,319
have them near the top of the American League. But

454
00:23:25,759 --> 00:23:29,160
losing Cody Ponce and the fact that they already have

455
00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:33,960
that they already have the starting pitchering starting pitcher, injuries

456
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:40,440
that they have Burrios, Treya Savage, Chane Bieber right all

457
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,519
in the aisle. I believe Boden France has done for

458
00:23:42,559 --> 00:23:44,480
the year. I think he had surgery. I don't think

459
00:23:44,519 --> 00:23:48,480
we'll see him this season. That was a big like

460
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,480
Ponts holding down that spot was kind of a big deal.

461
00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:55,599
And the corresponding roster move that they made was lazarro

462
00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:59,519
Estrada from from the minors. So that means one of

463
00:23:59,559 --> 00:24:02,839
two things. That either means they're gonna trot him out

464
00:24:02,839 --> 00:24:05,440
there in a start, in which case you should probably

465
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,559
fade him if you see lazare Estrada starting a Major

466
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,720
League Baseball game. Or they're gonna have to sort of

467
00:24:13,799 --> 00:24:17,160
pull Varland from his relief role and do almost like

468
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:21,119
an opener with Varlin going balk innings. And the reason

469
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,720
that that's bad for the Blue Jays is Varlin's been

470
00:24:23,759 --> 00:24:26,240
one of their better relievers and so if you take

471
00:24:26,319 --> 00:24:28,839
him out of his sort of bullpen spot, I think

472
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,519
that hurts the Blue Jays. So I kind of think

473
00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:33,839
you have no other pitching in the pipeline for the

474
00:24:33,839 --> 00:24:37,200
Blue Jays until some of these other starters come back.

475
00:24:37,799 --> 00:24:39,640
I'm gonna be looking to play against the Jas, so

476
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,079
what I'm hoping for personally, and then I want to

477
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:43,920
loop Brian in to sort of see what he has

478
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,559
to say about this. I hope the Marlins role today,

479
00:24:46,759 --> 00:24:48,759
and I kind of hope the blue Jays role as well,

480
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,160
because I don't want any part of the Rockies here.

481
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,920
I think this is a bad spot for the Rockies

482
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,599
leaving town already won a game in this series. Give

483
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,640
me a Marlins blowout and a Jay's blowout. Maybe we

484
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,839
can get a nice price on the White Sox for tomorrow.

485
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,720
That's really what I'm hoping for. Brian is nodding. Let's

486
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:06,960
get Brian in a nice topic.

487
00:25:07,519 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really think Toronto needs to trade for another picture.

488
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,599
There's Atlanta's in a situation very similar to Toronto, where

489
00:25:16,599 --> 00:25:19,799
we've got a lot of injured guys, and we've already

490
00:25:19,799 --> 00:25:25,759
seen that the guys they have other other than the Aces,

491
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,960
have really struggled. It would not surprise me. Now the

492
00:25:31,039 --> 00:25:34,480
Dodgers don't trade away pitching, but they're so deep in pitching.

493
00:25:35,039 --> 00:25:39,960
I really like some of their guys that didn't make

494
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:44,279
the rotation. I think Toronto, even though they just played them,

495
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,359
played them in the World Series. They could talk to

496
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:51,599
Dodgers into giving River, Ryan or somebody else into a package.

497
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,160
That would be the right way to do it, because Toronto,

498
00:25:55,279 --> 00:26:00,200
right now, I'm with you, either play overs or I'm

499
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,599
going to fade their pitchers and you're getting a game

500
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,359
right now with the line the total is only seven

501
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,920
and a half here, so you know, I'm kind of

502
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,119
looking at the over and open eight. It's down to

503
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,079
seven and a half, slightly into the over for me,

504
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,960
but I agree Toronto's a team that right now, at

505
00:26:15,079 --> 00:26:16,920
least from the pitching standpoint, I'm looking to fit.

506
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: All right, Tokyo Brandon, I got to go to you

507
00:26:23,039 --> 00:26:27,039
for this one. I heard a rumor once that you

508
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,799
say Kakuchi does not like pitching during the day. I

509
00:26:30,839 --> 00:26:32,960
think he said something on the along the lines of

510
00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:35,119
he he likes to get like thirteen hours of sleep

511
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,000
and a daytime start really messes up his his sleep

512
00:26:39,039 --> 00:26:42,400
and much rather prefer to pitch at night. That's an

513
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,839
issue for him this afternoon because he's got a one

514
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:50,000
pm local start at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs. So, Kakuchi,

515
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,319
your guy. I know you love to bring this guy

516
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,519
up last year in Wriglely against Matt Boyd Angels Cubs.

517
00:26:56,759 --> 00:26:57,799
What do you see in this one?

518
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 3: I actually went in his high school and scouted him

519
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:02,880
when I was a scout. He went to the same

520
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,400
high school as Otani as well. So uh, it's up

521
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,279
north northeastern Japan. It's quite a ways from Tokyo, but

522
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,960
the countryside. Uh yeah.

523
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: Uh.

524
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 3: Kikrichi is very very particular about his sleep. And if

525
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,480
you take a look at my Twitter ex, I put

526
00:27:23,559 --> 00:27:28,400
up the starter ops versus the hitters they're facing today,

527
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,200
and I actually juxtaposed my face with Paul Stanley on

528
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,279
the Kiss Destroyer album cover. So, uh, take a look

529
00:27:35,319 --> 00:27:37,279
at that. I don't know, Brian, did you like Kiss?

530
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:38,759
I'm a huge Kiss fan.

531
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: I kiss when I was when I was a little big.

532
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: Yeah. Cool. So when if you look at that, you'll

533
00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:49,920
see that Matthew Boyd has a career ops of five

534
00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:53,519
seventy two against these batters. Today, Kikichi has an ops

535
00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:57,160
of eight thirty three and seven fifty five. Seven fifty

536
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,799
is my line. And Cubs are coming off a really

537
00:27:59,839 --> 00:28:03,519
bad loss. I think I think they bounced back here.

538
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,079
I never really liked Kikrichi when he came out of

539
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,079
high school. He debated going to the major leagues right

540
00:28:10,079 --> 00:28:12,039
out of high school, and then he decided to sign

541
00:28:12,079 --> 00:28:13,920
in Japan for like two or three years, and then

542
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,279
he went to the major leagues. I really didn't like

543
00:28:16,319 --> 00:28:18,680
his stuff, but the major league scouts were drooling over

544
00:28:18,759 --> 00:28:20,960
him when he came out of high school. Never really

545
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:23,119
liked his stuff, and I don't like him now, especially

546
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,720
with the Angels. But the Angels certainly are hitting the

547
00:28:25,759 --> 00:28:28,400
ball quite well right now. Their bullpen is the problem.

548
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:33,279
They've got a Diamondbacks type bullpen situation there, but they're

549
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,440
hitting man. They can whack it as long as Trout's

550
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,680
in that lineup. Never gonna bet an under with that team.

551
00:28:40,359 --> 00:28:42,920
But I think it's time to back the Cubs here

552
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,200
because I think they bounce back from that. Don't live

553
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,839
in the moment, live in the big picture, and the

554
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:49,839
Cubs are just a better team.

555
00:28:50,279 --> 00:28:53,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll get Brian in on this one quick. Angels

556
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,079
start three and three. I think you and I are

557
00:28:55,119 --> 00:28:57,400
sort of both under the kind of have the same

558
00:28:57,559 --> 00:29:01,599
mindset about this Angels team. But I did note that

559
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:06,160
they they did gather some interesting pieces, specifically in the bullpen.

560
00:29:06,279 --> 00:29:08,519
So I'm curious if you're looking at it like me,

561
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,079
where it's like they're one or two injuries away from

562
00:29:12,119 --> 00:29:15,559
like complete disaster and like they're three and three, this

563
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,160
team might scrap their way to ten and ten. So

564
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:22,000
for me, like I need to find the spot where

565
00:29:22,079 --> 00:29:24,759
like the well is gonna you know, the damn is

566
00:29:24,759 --> 00:29:27,519
gonna break if you will with the Angels, but I

567
00:29:27,559 --> 00:29:29,480
don't know that it's like this early in the year.

568
00:29:29,559 --> 00:29:32,599
So like, talk to me about just that mindset and

569
00:29:32,759 --> 00:29:35,039
if you're staying away from them because of that, because

570
00:29:35,039 --> 00:29:36,799
that's one of the reasons that I'm not looking to

571
00:29:36,799 --> 00:29:39,000
play against them at this price just yet.

572
00:29:40,079 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 2: I don't see a reason not to play them. To

573
00:29:42,599 --> 00:29:45,240
play the Cubs in this one, I pay for a

574
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:50,960
service that does a lot of simulations, and they've got Kakuchi.

575
00:29:51,759 --> 00:29:54,480
His strikeout to walk ratio today three point eight to

576
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,000
two point four. That's not what you want on a

577
00:29:57,079 --> 00:29:59,920
starting pitcher. I can't even get two to one on

578
00:30:00,119 --> 00:30:04,400
strikeout percentage. Matthew Boyd pitched a lot better on what

579
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,880
his results were in that first game. I believe he

580
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,960
had a seven to one strike out to walk ratio.

581
00:30:09,279 --> 00:30:12,839
I talked about those pittureless cards. He grated out really

582
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,000
well for there. The result wasn't there. But he's a

583
00:30:16,039 --> 00:30:20,559
guy that is when he's healthy. He's been very good

584
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,240
last year. As the season went on, he hadn't pitched

585
00:30:23,279 --> 00:30:25,519
as many any that many innings ever because he's always

586
00:30:25,559 --> 00:30:28,079
hurt and he tired in the second half of the

587
00:30:28,079 --> 00:30:31,519
season and then his year end numbers weren't as great.

588
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,039
But when he's healthy, he's a guy I'm looking to back,

589
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,519
and his strikeout to walk is six point four to

590
00:30:36,519 --> 00:30:40,799
two point five. I like Boyd here. From an offensive standpoint,

591
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,720
I liked the Cubs offense better than the Angels, although,

592
00:30:44,079 --> 00:30:45,799
to be honest with you, some of the Angels hitters

593
00:30:45,799 --> 00:30:47,799
have gotten up to really nice starts traps I've been

594
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,519
terrific so far talking about guys that have had hit

595
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,279
injury problems. But I kind of liked I kind of

596
00:30:54,319 --> 00:30:56,799
liked the Cubs here. I think that's a good price.

597
00:30:57,359 --> 00:31:01,920
And to get back where Tokyo was talking about playing

598
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:07,319
a picture to win the simulations today's show, there's not

599
00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:10,160
a single There's only one picture in Major League Baseball

600
00:31:10,559 --> 00:31:13,319
that has more than a fifty chance of getting a victory,

601
00:31:14,319 --> 00:31:18,880
and that's Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies fifty four. So

602
00:31:19,079 --> 00:31:21,319
Yokomoto has only got a forty four percent to get

603
00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:24,400
the victory. You don't want to be laying that kind

604
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,519
of number with him in that regard. So I know

605
00:31:27,559 --> 00:31:31,079
that's something that Brandon does very well on and he

606
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,480
knows it and this just points it points it out

607
00:31:33,519 --> 00:31:35,480
that he does very well.

608
00:31:35,319 --> 00:31:39,079
Speaker 1: In this we move on. Before we move on from

609
00:31:39,079 --> 00:31:41,759
this game, I have to point out the total is six.

610
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:46,720
The wind appears to be blowing in at Wrigley Field. So, well,

611
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,759
you're the you're kind of the weather guy. I feel

612
00:31:48,799 --> 00:31:50,640
like you've been a You've done a good job of

613
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,799
like sort of gauging that the total is six. That's

614
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:56,920
the talking point. That is a low total.

615
00:31:57,079 --> 00:31:59,359
Speaker 2: Okay, let me look at the weather here.

616
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 1: Me. Yeah, I'm seeing six minus one ten the total. Okay,

617
00:32:06,519 --> 00:32:07,079
win again.

618
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:10,039
Speaker 3: You could see in that bullpen. Are you kidding? The

619
00:32:10,079 --> 00:32:11,119
Cubs can get sicked.

620
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Wrigley field today, the wind is blowing in.

621
00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:20,119
They're expecting twenty six percent less runs than normally, which

622
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:24,640
is two point twenty eight runs less than normal. Uh,

623
00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:28,079
you're looking at home runs forty percent less, which would

624
00:32:28,119 --> 00:32:29,920
be about zero point eight to nine in the game,

625
00:32:31,599 --> 00:32:35,519
dolls in triples down seventeen percent and singles down three percent.

626
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,519
So if you're not going to hit home runs, they'll

627
00:32:38,519 --> 00:32:40,599
probably be one. Basically, what they're saying, this is probably

628
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,119
gonna be one home run hit in this game, and

629
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,960
they're going to be two two and a quarter runs

630
00:32:47,039 --> 00:32:52,240
less than normal, and you've got a situation here where

631
00:32:52,319 --> 00:32:58,160
we've got a really good picture for the Cubs. Maybe

632
00:32:58,359 --> 00:33:03,200
we play the Angels team total under something to that effect.

633
00:33:03,839 --> 00:33:05,440
But I don't want any part.

634
00:33:05,359 --> 00:33:09,359
Speaker 1: Of the Angels in this game, all right, Tokyo Brandon,

635
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,279
before I come to you for your best bets, Truth

636
00:33:13,079 --> 00:33:15,640
in the chat says I've never bought a pick. I've

637
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,240
subbed once to someone who made me money for free. Listen,

638
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,119
that's fine. This show is free. We love having you here. Uh.

639
00:33:23,319 --> 00:33:26,119
We don't get paid extra to do this. So if

640
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,720
you want to support, the way to do that is

641
00:33:29,759 --> 00:33:31,839
to buy the picks. And people ask all the time

642
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:33,880
while you come on the show. You know you don't

643
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,680
give out many picks. It's like, if you want the picks,

644
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,400
they're at They're they're on they're at wager talk on sale.

645
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,200
I don't know how to sugarcoat that, Like we that

646
00:33:42,359 --> 00:33:44,160
is what we do. That's that's how we make a

647
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,160
living in addition to betting games. So it's like, you

648
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,640
know that that is how you get the picks. However,

649
00:33:51,039 --> 00:33:52,920
you're gonna get best bets at the end of this show.

650
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,160
So if you're if you've made it this far, the

651
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,640
picks are coming up, and we've got a great special

652
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,960
on the wager Talk site that basically gives you two

653
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,319
for one, so listen. If you don't want to buy

654
00:34:02,319 --> 00:34:05,759
the picks, no problem. We appreciate like subscribes. Just the

655
00:34:05,839 --> 00:34:09,239
views help us significantly if you do. That's what the

656
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,000
picks are for, and you actually get the picks. Tokyo, Brandon,

657
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,000
what is your pick for today? What is your best

658
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:15,760
bet for the show?

659
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 3: I've given out five picks on this show, and if

660
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,280
you can't disseminate from that, then you're never gonna win

661
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,320
sports betting. Anyway. You should pick up knitting. My play

662
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:30,000
for this is going to be the I'm gonna cheat again.

663
00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:32,239
I'm gonna take the Phillies on the money line today.

664
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,280
It's minus two ninety or something like that, but I'm

665
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:35,960
gonna do it.

666
00:34:36,199 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do.

667
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:41,559
Speaker 3: It because we're trying to win a parlay leg. Granted, now,

668
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:43,840
don't give me all this hate in the comments and say,

669
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,280
oh professional giving out two ninety. I'm not. I would

670
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,199
never make that a client play. I'm only giving that

671
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,039
out because it's a parlay leg and we're trying to

672
00:34:51,039 --> 00:34:54,239
win a parlay, so I'm gonna go with the Phillies

673
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:59,159
on the money line. I like Christopher Sanchez. The list

674
00:34:59,199 --> 00:35:01,239
that I put up on my Twitter X with the

675
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:06,760
starters and their ops against the team they're facing. Christopher

676
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,159
Sanchez is a five sixteen, well under the seven fifty.

677
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:11,119
Speaker 2: Uh.

678
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Phillies and let me promote,

679
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,440
like Adam said earlier, double play, you can get either

680
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,639
one of us to either two of us, and you

681
00:35:21,639 --> 00:35:24,440
can leave one of us out. Uh, and you get

682
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,960
three days full access for those two kappers. I believe

683
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,360
it's around fifty dollars, so that includes all our five

684
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,719
percent plays as well.

685
00:35:35,119 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 1: You know what tb the Phillies is all. I don't

686
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,480
hate the Phillies call for the parlat it's only minus

687
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,800
I see like minus two sixty to sixty five. I

688
00:35:44,039 --> 00:35:46,119
don't know if like maybe Brian can give us like

689
00:35:46,159 --> 00:35:48,559
what a fair sort of market price on that is.

690
00:35:48,599 --> 00:35:51,119
But like the other thing too, and Brian just sort

691
00:35:51,159 --> 00:35:54,360
of pointed out, like Sanchez has the best chance to

692
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,239
record a win today. So if someone wants to not

693
00:35:58,519 --> 00:36:01,079
use the the parlay or not use the minus two

694
00:36:01,159 --> 00:36:03,880
sixty five. They could always just go that route and

695
00:36:04,079 --> 00:36:06,840
maybe go Sanches to record a win. Brian, before you

696
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,719
get into your best bet for the show, your parlay league,

697
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,880
can you tell me what we should be putting in

698
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:13,000
the parlay for the Phillies.

699
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing basically one seventy seventy or two skin

700
00:36:17,519 --> 00:36:19,400
excuse me, two seventy two seventy five on that.

701
00:36:21,039 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go to seventy five. Again, it's a

702
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,880
three team or so we're gonna get plus money pretty

703
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:29,000
much regardless of what you what Brian and our I select.

704
00:36:29,559 --> 00:36:31,599
But I think the talking point for the show TV

705
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,239
was was good and Brian sort of hammered that point

706
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,880
home with the just this percentage on Sanchez to get

707
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,559
a win. Uh, Brian, do you have that march?

708
00:36:40,639 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 3: Like?

709
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,159
Speaker 1: What is the do you know what the price would

710
00:36:42,199 --> 00:36:45,199
be on that that? I don't hold on?

711
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 2: Let me let me check. Well, like I said, he

712
00:36:48,519 --> 00:36:52,039
had fifty four percent chance of getting the win, So

713
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,599
I don't know what the current number is on that.

714
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,599
Speaker 1: That's okay. I was really just offering it up as

715
00:36:56,599 --> 00:36:59,480
someone if you didn't want, if you couldn't you somehow

716
00:36:59,519 --> 00:37:02,079
find a way to use Phillies on the money line.

717
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,360
I do think that that's a decent alternate market to

718
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,440
look at. Okay, Brian, you have the floor best bets.

719
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,559
What do you have going on at the website today?

720
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,719
And you know what are you locking in for this

721
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:14,360
parlay Lake?

722
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 2: Okay at six thirty am, I have not put up

723
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,360
any plays for any clients. I'm doing the Hockey Show

724
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,599
when I finished this, so my players will be up

725
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:24,079
a little bit later today. So I've got I can't

726
00:37:24,079 --> 00:37:25,679
tell you what I've got because I don't know what

727
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:30,639
I have at this point, but I'm gonna use the under.

728
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:35,719
In the Boston game yesterday, I talked about Boston on

729
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:39,360
the show, and to the credit of our excellent audience,

730
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,119
they were talking about how Boston was struggling hitting and

731
00:37:42,119 --> 00:37:45,960
they continue to do that. Boston's got Burrows or excuse me,

732
00:37:46,039 --> 00:37:49,519
a Burrows is going for Houston in today's game. You

733
00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:51,840
got hit pretty hard in the first game out new team.

734
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,000
I've talked about that in the past, when you come

735
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,480
over to a new team, I don't like to play

736
00:37:55,559 --> 00:37:57,480
them the first time, and it's been a lot of

737
00:37:57,639 --> 00:37:59,719
a lot of players are struggled in that regard. But

738
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,400
I do like Burrows. Burrows is a guy that was

739
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,079
hot in the offseason, and if you take a lot

740
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,360
look at him against the right handed batters, twenty five

741
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,719
point three this was last year, twenty five point three

742
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,239
stric out rate, only four point five walk rate. It's

743
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,199
over a twenty point strike out to walk grade against readies.

744
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,280
And you'll be facing six readies in this lineup. And

745
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,079
obviously you've got one of the aces in Major League

746
00:38:24,079 --> 00:38:30,159
Baseball going for going for the Red Sox today, and

747
00:38:30,199 --> 00:38:32,400
that would be Garrett Crochet. And I'm not a big

748
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,039
fan of this Houston offense. Trigger and I both think

749
00:38:36,119 --> 00:38:39,679
Houston's a little bit overrated this season. In the total seven,

750
00:38:40,559 --> 00:38:43,320
it opened seven and a half with heavy juice, and

751
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,360
now just about everybody out there, I'm only seeing one

752
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,519
seven and a half under thirty five. I'll I'll take

753
00:38:49,519 --> 00:38:51,639
it under. I'll take it under the seven. You lay

754
00:38:51,679 --> 00:38:54,480
about minus one oh five in that regard. So give

755
00:38:54,519 --> 00:38:59,079
me Boston Houston under on a day game, and I

756
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:02,760
believe it's a It's the getaway game, and keep that

757
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,719
in mind when they have the getaway games, even though

758
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,440
they have the strike zone situation right now, if you

759
00:39:09,519 --> 00:39:12,880
watched any of the games yesterday. The umpires continue to

760
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,719
make a lot of bad calls, but the team doesn't

761
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,960
want to challenge them because you don't want to lose

762
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,760
one or two challenges, so the umpires. Until the umpires

763
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,159
are gone and they just use the computers, you're going

764
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,239
to find a lot of bad calls and that's going

765
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:31,280
to continue. So both of these pitchers are very good

766
00:39:31,519 --> 00:39:34,199
at their location. So I'm gonna play this game under

767
00:39:34,679 --> 00:39:37,079
the total of seven and that'll be my parlay on

768
00:39:37,119 --> 00:39:39,320
today's card.

769
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 1: Yes since we you know, since we we've already talked

770
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,480
about my legs, So I'm gonna I'm gonna sort of

771
00:39:44,519 --> 00:39:48,119
like use this time to finish talking about this game.

772
00:39:49,559 --> 00:39:52,360
Two things like one, we talked about the Red Sox

773
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,239
sort of sort of hitting woes and not. You know,

774
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,079
that was sort of my deterrent from playing them yesterday,

775
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,760
was that I just didn't like what I saw out

776
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,800
of the offense all weekend and then on Monday when

777
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,760
they lost eight to one, and they come out last

778
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,840
night can't hit again nine to two. So I don't

779
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,440
really you know, just as far as you're unders concerned,

780
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,480
I want I really don't want part of these Red

781
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:18,400
Sox bats until they show something a little bit of life.

782
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,679
You go back to Sunday's game, just that one home

783
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,320
run and really didn't have many other scoring chances in

784
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,159
that game. And then my very first Under the Radar

785
00:40:26,199 --> 00:40:28,320
episode and I'll bring Tokyo brand in here to talk

786
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,719
to comment on this game as well. My first episode

787
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,880
was entirely dedicated to talking about Mike Burrows change of

788
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,159
scenery in an organization that may actually help him get

789
00:40:39,159 --> 00:40:41,119
over the hump as a pitcher. I felt like he

790
00:40:41,199 --> 00:40:42,760
was a little bit of the odd man out in

791
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,480
terms of, like the Pirates having all these prospects, he

792
00:40:45,599 --> 00:40:49,880
was the expendable one, you know, they needed to add some.

793
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,320
I think that was part of the three team deal

794
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,199
where Jacob Melton ended up with the Rays of the

795
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,079
Pirates got back. I think Brandon Lowe, who's been great

796
00:40:59,079 --> 00:41:02,280
for them, and then the Houston Astros got a starter

797
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,800
who they kind of desperately need. So I'm sort of

798
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,400
pro Burrows. He had six strikeouts in that first game.

799
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,719
I thought his stuff looked good despite maybe not getting

800
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,519
like the overall result. So Brian, I'm with you here.

801
00:41:14,639 --> 00:41:17,000
Under Under makes a lot of sense. Sevens are tough,

802
00:41:17,079 --> 00:41:19,360
but it's it's kind of the right way to look here,

803
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,079
TV Red Sox Astros to you before I close it down.

804
00:41:23,639 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, both both teams lineups a little underwhelming, But I'm

805
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,800
on board with you guys. I'm I'm not. I don't

806
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,159
have high hopes for the Astros this year. They do

807
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:38,079
have good pitching. H Crochet is one of the elite pitchers,

808
00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:40,960
top five pitcher in Major League Baseball without a doubt.

809
00:41:41,559 --> 00:41:44,280
He's got pretty bad numbers against these batters in his career.

810
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:48,039
But I wouldn't shy away from the under. Like you

811
00:41:48,039 --> 00:41:52,159
guys mentioned, I agree that burrows first start was you know,

812
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,719
jitters being on a new team or whatnot start first

813
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,960
start of the season. Everyone's gonna have a bad game.

814
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,519
I mean, Skeen's had a bad game and he's one

815
00:42:00,559 --> 00:42:03,480
of the best in MLBS. So you gotta you gotta

816
00:42:03,519 --> 00:42:06,360
be able to throw. It's it's like gymnastics judges. You

817
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,480
got to throw the low score away and take the

818
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,119
take the mean. So uh yeah, I expect an under

819
00:42:12,159 --> 00:42:12,960
in this one as well.

820
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,119
Speaker 1: And I don't even think it's fair to say Burrows

821
00:42:17,119 --> 00:42:19,360
had like a bad start like he've pitched into the

822
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,960
sixth inning. Yeah, he gave up five runs. That's less

823
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,079
than you know, it's less than ideal. But still, I

824
00:42:24,079 --> 00:42:26,480
mean he went into the sixth he had six strikeouts.

825
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,679
Like to me, like, that's I think that that's a

826
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,519
start he could build off of. So I think this

827
00:42:32,639 --> 00:42:35,360
was a good, good pull there, Brian. I you got

828
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,119
Crochet on the other side when he's on forget it,

829
00:42:39,039 --> 00:42:42,559
like that's this. This has three two written all over it.

830
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:47,039
Three one two to one. Yeah, that's it. That's a

831
00:42:47,039 --> 00:42:50,880
good call. And then someone in the chat just to

832
00:42:51,119 --> 00:42:54,599
you know, Astro's plus one thirty or whatever they are. Listen,

833
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,840
you're you're not gonna find me on the Red Sox

834
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,159
until they they give me a little bit more of

835
00:42:59,199 --> 00:43:01,559
a reason to think that they're gonna turn in the

836
00:43:01,599 --> 00:43:05,360
other direction. So I said, yesterday I made the analogy

837
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,880
of like, you know, I'm hitting the check like I'm

838
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,239
playing poker. I want to see one more before I

839
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,480
jump in with the Red Sox. Well, I saw another

840
00:43:12,519 --> 00:43:16,000
card it didn't like yesterday, and so I'll be passing here.

841
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,280
It's certainly not going to turn around and lay a

842
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:21,119
price with them. Sort of mired in this slump right now,

843
00:43:21,199 --> 00:43:22,320
So go ahead, TV.

844
00:43:22,679 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 3: Quick point about that, just very quickly. Yes, Crochet is

845
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,079
an awesome pitcher, but if you think there's only gonna

846
00:43:29,119 --> 00:43:32,000
be five runs in this game his five innings, if

847
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,039
he can shut them down to zero or one, it's

848
00:43:34,159 --> 00:43:38,400
kind of negligible. So a low score kind of negates

849
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,599
good pitching. So I wouldn't be against the Astros plus

850
00:43:41,639 --> 00:43:43,440
money either. I haven't bet it though.

851
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,119
Speaker 1: I don't need the time for the best bets because

852
00:43:48,119 --> 00:43:50,239
my best bet was the first game we talked about.

853
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,599
I'm laying the minus one and a half with the Dodgers.

854
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,119
I think they probably destroy the Guardians today. I think

855
00:43:56,159 --> 00:43:59,239
that was a really just a cru Just the way

856
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,519
that all played out yesterday was sort of like soul

857
00:44:01,559 --> 00:44:04,719
crushing for the Guardians. They have this exciting young player

858
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,599
that comes in, they lose him. You know, they're in

859
00:44:07,639 --> 00:44:10,199
a tight game and they kind of let it slip

860
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,480
at the end they lose four to one. They did

861
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,880
get their winning this series. I think mentally like they

862
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,239
probably said, oh, if we can win one out in LA,

863
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,440
that's you know, especially coming off of the split with

864
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,760
the Mariners, will take that. They've got that side kind

865
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,079
of feel the same about the Rockies from a mentality

866
00:44:25,079 --> 00:44:27,800
standpoint too. Hey, we did what we came here to do.

867
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,960
We got one, So I'll lay the minus one and

868
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,159
a half with the Dodgers. I just think that there's

869
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,920
I've got about a two over a two run difference

870
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,000
on my projection with those teams, So I'm comfortable with

871
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,800
laying the minus one and a half minus one twenty

872
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,639
not going to be a client play, but for the parlay,

873
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,599
I like that quite a bit. And listen, if you

874
00:44:48,679 --> 00:44:51,920
want to take less risk for less payout, you could

875
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,440
always just put the money line in there. But I'm

876
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:55,760
going to go with the minus one and a half

877
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,960
in this scenario. Give us some respectable odds for this one.

878
00:44:59,559 --> 00:45:02,559
Guys on our page the double play, choose any of

879
00:45:02,599 --> 00:45:05,360
the two handicappers. I've got one client play locked in

880
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,440
for today. I know my co hosts are going to

881
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,719
have them as well. You know individual packages will be

882
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:12,920
up there, But the better way to do it is

883
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,159
the double play that you pick too. If you will,

884
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:19,599
you know two of the panelists on here. We'll be

885
00:45:19,679 --> 00:45:23,039
back for more total bases nine am tomorrow and quick

886
00:45:23,079 --> 00:45:27,639
programming note. Full Court Press will be back every weekday

887
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,159
until the championship game. So Rob Vino and I in

888
00:45:30,199 --> 00:45:33,519
about fifteen minutes. If college basketball is your thing, are

889
00:45:33,559 --> 00:45:37,559
back live right here and we will be here Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,

890
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,199
and then Monday to close down the season. So if

891
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,559
you're not in the basketball, I'll see at nine am tomorrow.

892
00:45:43,639 --> 00:45:46,119
If you are, i'll see you in fifteen minutes after

893
00:45:46,159 --> 00:45:48,679
I go refill my water. Have a great day everyone.

894
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,960
We'll see you guys tomorrow. For more total bases,