1 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: And welcome to the podcast on this Friday the thirteenth. No, 2 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:34,759 I don't either. Black cats are fine, broken mirrors, walk 3 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,399 under ladders, whatever you want. Another day, well, it's not 4 00:00:39,439 --> 00:00:42,640 just another day. It's a day that literally takes us 5 00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:45,640 away from not completely. I have a little bit of 6 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,000 an update about LA, but the LA News has moved 7 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,880 off of the front page and now we're watching war. 8 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,439 And it's not a surprise, but it is. It's not 9 00:00:57,479 --> 00:01:01,759 a surprise in the fact that is has been worried 10 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:07,319 about Iran for decades and literally you can go back 11 00:01:07,439 --> 00:01:10,200 and there was a video I saw earlier today of 12 00:01:10,239 --> 00:01:14,000 Benjamin Nette Yaho addressing the United Nations here in New York, 13 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,799 and this was five years ago, and he had a 14 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,120 like a cartoon drawing of a bomb and he had 15 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,799 a red pen and he showed where basically Iran was 16 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,359 right at the point of making the nuke bomb then. 17 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,439 And I long believe that they have had the ability, 18 00:01:31,359 --> 00:01:36,280 they have the nuclear fission to be able to create bombs. 19 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,400 I think they have the bomb, and I think Benjamin 20 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,079 Nett and Yah who thought they did. And it is 21 00:01:42,239 --> 00:01:47,519 very nervous about the fact that Iran has been expressing 22 00:01:47,599 --> 00:01:54,599 its desire to completely obliterate and wipe off the map Israel. Now, 23 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,519 you can only take those threats so long. So let's 24 00:01:58,519 --> 00:02:03,519 go back. Because Barak Obama, he thought, well, let's negotiate 25 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,760 and let's in fact, we'll give you a bunch of money, 26 00:02:07,799 --> 00:02:13,560 let's be friends. And that did not work. And it 27 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,759 comes all the way up to well, even Joe Biden 28 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,439 tried to do that, But it comes all the way 29 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,599 up to the last couple of weeks where the Trump 30 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:27,120 administration has sat down with the Iranians and has tried 31 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,680 to say, we need you to get rid of your 32 00:02:31,759 --> 00:02:36,879 nuclear bomb ability and they said, no way. And I 33 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:41,759 get that from tyrants don't want to give up that power. 34 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:47,280 I mean, Kim jungett On, he's doing the same thing. 35 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,759 He has nukes, and the only reason he has nukes 36 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,360 is because of the fact that he feels that without 37 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,759 them he would be toppled, he would be he would 38 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,599 be out, that somebody would take over that country. I'm 39 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,520 sure the Iotola feels exactly the same way that there's 40 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,560 no way that he's able to maintain control unless he 41 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:13,599 has nukes in his back pocket. So with that, it's 42 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:21,240 been it's been a very effective attack by the people 43 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:25,280 in Israel. What's interesting about Israel is coming out of this, 44 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,639 which is fascinating. And remember the pagers. I remember how 45 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,360 they worked for literally a couple of at least a 46 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,159 couple two or three years to get the pagers so 47 00:03:35,199 --> 00:03:39,840 that the people of Hezbolah and even in Iran, all 48 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,159 the people on that side of the aisle would have 49 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,879 these pagers so that they could send a signal, and 50 00:03:44,919 --> 00:03:47,560 they had an explosive in them. They killed all kinds 51 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:53,199 of people. It took years of ingenious planning to come 52 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:58,000 up with that. Well, we're hearing that this also. Israel 53 00:03:58,199 --> 00:04:04,120 has smuggled weapons into Iran long before the strikes last night. 54 00:04:04,639 --> 00:04:07,680 This has been not weeks or months, has been years 55 00:04:07,719 --> 00:04:11,280 of planning. But again, if you keep having somebody who 56 00:04:11,319 --> 00:04:14,479 is a pretty powerful country saying they want to kill 57 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,480 you and everybody else like you, well you're probably going 58 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,839 to try to start planning on how to take them out. 59 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:28,879 The IDF intercepted one hundred plus drones that Iran sent 60 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:34,279 toward Tel Aviv last night. No, and go by the way, 61 00:04:35,199 --> 00:04:39,639 the two hundred fighter jets that Israel used that not 62 00:04:39,759 --> 00:04:43,519 one of them was shot down because they had previously 63 00:04:44,319 --> 00:04:50,800 knocked out a lot of Iran's defense systems. So all 64 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,399 of this took years and months and weeks down to 65 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,480 last night where and that two hundred fighter just that 66 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,000 last night, that was just the first wave in that 67 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,839 you've got four Iranian commanders that were killed. It wasn't 68 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,800 by accident. They were not only hitting nuke sites, but 69 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:14,680 they were also hitting military sites as well as specifically 70 00:05:14,759 --> 00:05:21,120 targeting military leaders. They hit the military headquarters building, their 71 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,879 version of the Pentagon. But the nukes that they have, 72 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:26,920 and this is why I say it's the first wave, 73 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,680 and everybody knows it's going to be more. In fact, 74 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,000 as to recording this, there's word that there are more 75 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:38,519 explosions in different parts of Iran today. But they have 76 00:05:38,639 --> 00:05:44,240 their nukes deeply underground. The centrifuge is a lot of 77 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,319 the nuclear capability that Iran has is deep, deep, deep 78 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,800 under the earth. And one of the things about that 79 00:05:52,079 --> 00:05:56,720 is we have been asked by Israel to give them 80 00:05:56,959 --> 00:06:01,759 the bunkerbuster bombs, and apparently we've said no, we don't 81 00:06:01,759 --> 00:06:05,480 want anybody else to have that technology, so we won't 82 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:10,120 do it. So they have to use more conventional bombs 83 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,639 to try to get rid of these nuke facilities that 84 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,959 Iran has underground. One of the other clever things that 85 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:21,199 Iran has done is even if you have a strategic 86 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,199 missile that can go into a bathroom window, well, they 87 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,759 can send one of those missiles down one of these 88 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,360 silos where they have the bomb making facilities underground. But 89 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:37,000 what Iran apparently has done is that in these silos 90 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,680 they have knotty degree turns so that the bomb, no 91 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,160 matter what they have, won't make it all the way 92 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,680 down to where they're storing their bombs or construction constructing 93 00:06:47,759 --> 00:06:53,319 nuclear bombs. So they're pretty clever too. But at this point, 94 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,199 it's just basically wait and see what the rest of 95 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,439 the attacks will be, because there's going to be more 96 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:05,519 question it. Let's start with a whole bunch of party 97 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:12,040 heads regarding military tactics. Start with Colonel Cedric Layton talking 98 00:07:12,079 --> 00:07:14,000 about what happened with this attack. 99 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,199 Speaker 2: Takeaway from this is that the Americans had an idea 100 00:07:18,199 --> 00:07:22,360 of what was going on. The Israelis probably kept them informed, 101 00:07:22,399 --> 00:07:26,199 at least as far as some of their preparations were concerned. 102 00:07:26,199 --> 00:07:30,319 They probably didn't give them exact details because operational security 103 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,839 was paramount for them as well. But this is something 104 00:07:33,839 --> 00:07:38,519 that strategically can benefit the Trump administration because it not 105 00:07:38,639 --> 00:07:42,240 only like beared the weaknesses of the Iranian regime, but 106 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:46,000 it also shows a possible opening for other things that 107 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,160 the Trump administration made want to do. This would be 108 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,480 the Iranians or frankly in the Middle East. 109 00:07:52,199 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: And here is what Mike Pompeo thinks about what happened 110 00:07:55,399 --> 00:07:55,879 last night. 111 00:07:56,879 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 3: I will say that Israel and the United States have 112 00:07:58,959 --> 00:08:02,560 shown extreme pati This has been a decade plus in 113 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,959 the making. What we saw take place last night now 114 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,480 this morning is going to continue for days and weeks. 115 00:08:07,959 --> 00:08:10,519 Israelis clearly believed and I think they were right that 116 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,120 this was the moment, this was go time. There was 117 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,680 no more space to have the option to go do 118 00:08:15,759 --> 00:08:19,360 what they have now done. They've done the necessary and 119 00:08:19,399 --> 00:08:21,639 so I hope they will continue. I hope they will 120 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,079 conclude this the one place you didn't mention, Bill that 121 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,199 was a pretty comprehensive. There's still FODO underground, very difficult target. 122 00:08:28,279 --> 00:08:31,120 I hope the Israelis are as determined to get that 123 00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:34,440 as they have been. The leadership the radars, the air 124 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,600 force bases that you described this is the time to 125 00:08:37,759 --> 00:08:42,120 make the Middle East more prosperous, safer, because in Iran 126 00:08:42,159 --> 00:08:45,240 with a nuclear weapon would have been devastatingly bad for Israel, 127 00:08:45,279 --> 00:08:47,159 the Golf Air of Nations, and of course for the 128 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:48,679 United States of America as well. 129 00:08:48,879 --> 00:08:52,639 Speaker 1: The negotiations we're expected to continue this weekend in Oman. 130 00:08:54,399 --> 00:08:57,039 What does Mike Pompeo think. Does that meeting going to 131 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:57,799 take place or not. 132 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,159 Speaker 3: I'd be surprised if the Rangians would show up. They've 133 00:09:00,159 --> 00:09:02,480 said they're not going to. Who knows what they'll decide 134 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,279 after what transpires in the next twenty four hours. I 135 00:09:05,279 --> 00:09:07,960 imagine that the Ayatola didn't sleep very well last night. 136 00:09:08,919 --> 00:09:12,159 Let's make it clear, the Iranians aren't about to voluntarily 137 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,279 give up these weapons. The world's been trying to do that. 138 00:09:15,279 --> 00:09:17,559 President Obama tried to do that. President Biden tried to 139 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,840 do that. President Trump made a good faith effort these 140 00:09:19,919 --> 00:09:23,240 last three months to get the Ranians to change their ways. 141 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,279 They clearly continued to develop their enrichment capability, their ballistic 142 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,480 missile program, all the elements that held Israel and the 143 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:34,120 United States at risk, and when they wouldn't negotiate, they've 144 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,360 now faced the wrath of Israel, and as President Trump 145 00:09:36,399 --> 00:09:39,039 has said, if they come after Americans, he'll face the 146 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,039 wrath of the United States of America as well. 147 00:09:41,159 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: And here's Benjaminette Yahoo's last Night. 148 00:09:43,399 --> 00:09:46,279 Speaker 4: This operation will continue for as many days as it 149 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:50,840 takes to remove the threat. For decades, the tyrants of 150 00:09:50,879 --> 00:09:56,399 Tehran have brazenly openly called for Israel's destruction. They've backed 151 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:00,159 up their genocidal rhetoric with a program to develop oop 152 00:10:00,279 --> 00:10:00,679 a weapon. 153 00:10:01,039 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 3: Undoubtedly they've been working on this for an awfully long time. 154 00:10:04,639 --> 00:10:07,879 The fact that we have evidence that there Wasraeli agents 155 00:10:07,919 --> 00:10:10,360 on the ground means they were coordinating with the Iranian people, 156 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,519 if not some folks that are inside the Iranian government. 157 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,919 Speaker 5: I don't know that, but there's no doubt about that. 158 00:10:16,919 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 3: When you set up a drone base in somebody else's 159 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,360 sovereign territory, you are you have got collaborators working alongside you. 160 00:10:22,399 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 5: And I'll bet the Iranian regime today is trying to. 161 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: Figure out who those collaborators are, because I'll bet this 162 00:10:27,039 --> 00:10:30,000 effort continues. I doubt we've had a doubt. We've had 163 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,639 the last surprise from the Israelis. We saw what happened 164 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,919 with the pagers. We saw now what happened overnight. I'm 165 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,759 confident that the Israeli leadership has prepared a deep strategic 166 00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:43,639 effort to do what looks to me like as much 167 00:10:43,639 --> 00:10:45,360 of a success as a six day war where the 168 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:49,600 Israelis defeated three Arab forces. This was an effort of 169 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,039 grand strategic success. And now we have to all do 170 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,120 the necessary and protect Israel, protect the Golf, Arab states, 171 00:10:56,159 --> 00:10:59,159 protect Europe and the United States from the response that 172 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,240 the Ranians may seek to muster. I'm confident that we can, 173 00:11:02,519 --> 00:11:06,879 working together, achieve that and make frankly, make not only. 174 00:11:06,799 --> 00:11:08,879 Speaker 5: The Gulf safer, but the whole world. 175 00:11:09,159 --> 00:11:11,919 Speaker 1: So how does all of this affect you. You're not 176 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,759 in Israel, You're not in Iran. There is a concern 177 00:11:15,879 --> 00:11:18,600 obviously about some sort of sleeper sales here in the 178 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:23,639 US to do damage here, But primarily the number one 179 00:11:23,799 --> 00:11:27,919 thing that's happening today is oil prices, and so you 180 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,960 will you will probably see the effect of this next 181 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,600 time you go to the gas station. Oil prices are 182 00:11:34,639 --> 00:11:40,360 the highest since January. Brent Brewt is seventy four dollars today. 183 00:11:41,039 --> 00:11:45,240 It was in the high sixties yesterday. WTI crewed seventy three, 184 00:11:45,279 --> 00:11:48,799 so price oil is somewhere seventy three seventy four dollars. 185 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:54,279 That is up about five bucks from yesterday. As far 186 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,559 as the stock market goes straight downhill, today went down 187 00:11:57,919 --> 00:12:00,240 five hundred and six hundred points during most of the 188 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:07,519 trading session. The companies doing well are the military industrial 189 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:11,480 complex companies, the lock keys, the rtx's of the world. 190 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,679 Their stock is all much higher. And all of those 191 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,279 companies that are in the travel business, the airlines, the 192 00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:23,600 cruise ships, the travel agencies online, all of their stocks 193 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,879 are much much lower because of the news out of 194 00:12:27,919 --> 00:12:31,679 the Middle East. And these oil prices probably are going 195 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,360 to stay elevated for a little while because the Strait 196 00:12:34,399 --> 00:12:38,600 of Horror moves is about twenty one million barrels a 197 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,720 day go through the Strait of horm Moves and that 198 00:12:40,799 --> 00:12:45,240 will impact world oil prices. And that's right there where 199 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,440 Iran controls all of that. So be prepared for these 200 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,960 oil prices and gas prices to be higher for some time. 201 00:12:55,399 --> 00:12:58,639 And we can't do war coverage without finding out what 202 00:12:58,759 --> 00:13:01,480 our favorite general has to say about all of this. 203 00:13:01,639 --> 00:13:03,000 Here's General Jack Keene. 204 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:08,039 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's a comprehensive attack for sure. It's 205 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,159 conducted by two hundred fighters and a massade on the ground. 206 00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:15,279 And by the way, the Masad effectiveness inside of Iran 207 00:13:15,399 --> 00:13:17,960 for a number of years is absolutely stunning. They don't 208 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,320 talk about what they do, but they've actually hit nucleosites 209 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:24,600 themselves on the ground in the past. They're quite remarkable. 210 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,720 They probably not going to reveal much about what they're 211 00:13:26,759 --> 00:13:30,000 doing here, but yeah. But the four targets thereafter are 212 00:13:30,039 --> 00:13:32,879 one air defense systems, and appears a lot of the 213 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,600 drones that the Massad launched inside the country were targeting them, 214 00:13:37,159 --> 00:13:41,039 obviously the nuclear enterprise itself. They hit seven nucleosytes and 215 00:13:41,159 --> 00:13:44,080 doing that, the principal one being the one that's been 216 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,279 identified in the TAZ and they haven't identified the other ones. 217 00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:51,799 Ballistic missiles, And this is a very key point here. 218 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,919 The ballistic missiles are the weapon that could damage Israel. 219 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:00,279 These drones that Iran is flying, they're not a serious threat. 220 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,559 It takes eight hours to get a drone to Israel. 221 00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:05,240 There's plenty of time to intercept them. When they flew 222 00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:07,879 over one hundred and fifty of them back in April, 223 00:14:07,919 --> 00:14:11,279 every single one of them was defeated. The real retaliation 224 00:14:11,519 --> 00:14:14,519 means of ballistic missiles. They've got two thousand of them 225 00:14:14,879 --> 00:14:19,039 before the strike began, and believe me, the Israelis are 226 00:14:19,279 --> 00:14:24,600 very very concerned about these ballistic missiles. And also the 227 00:14:24,639 --> 00:14:28,639 other target is what you mentioned is the leadership target itself. 228 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,480 It's a missile that can travel at mock speed. It 229 00:14:32,519 --> 00:14:35,159 goes into space and comes down on a target with 230 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:42,279 usually a very high degree of accuracy. And the Iranians 231 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,559 did fire these at Israel twice before. Once was back 232 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,559 in April when it was part of that massive over 233 00:14:48,679 --> 00:14:53,960 three hundred missile attack and drone attack, and one hundred 234 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,039 and twenty ballistic missiles were fired at Israel, only four 235 00:14:57,159 --> 00:15:02,159 penetrated their head defense system. However, the next attack that 236 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,559 Iran made, they didn't launched drones, they didn't launched any rockets, 237 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:10,600 They launched only ballistic missiles. One hundred and twenty. Excuse me, 238 00:15:10,679 --> 00:15:13,639 over two hundred ballistic missiles were launched and forty of 239 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,240 them penetrated the arrow system, and the US that that 240 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:22,039 is unacceptable, and they were fortunately only focused at air 241 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,320 force baces in the desert and the Masade headquarters. Only 242 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,720 one person was killed. But this is why the Israelis 243 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,519 are very concern about these ballistic missiles. If they launched 244 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,080 hundreds of these ballistic missiles at one time and focused 245 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,799 on population centers, a different outcome could be. So one 246 00:15:39,799 --> 00:15:43,759 of the primary targets here has been taking down these 247 00:15:43,759 --> 00:15:48,879 ballistic missiles, so they reduced the effectiveness of Iran's retaliation. 248 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 7: General Keane, has there been anything over the past twelve 249 00:15:52,759 --> 00:15:54,320 hours that has surprised you? 250 00:15:55,200 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, certainly they have always sort of waited after 251 00:16:00,519 --> 00:16:05,480 an attack to reassess, and it's usually a couple of 252 00:16:05,559 --> 00:16:10,159 days and sometimes it's a couple of weeks. But throwing 253 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,679 these drones out there is such a feeble attempt. I 254 00:16:12,759 --> 00:16:16,320 think they're just trying to demonstrate, mostly to their own people, 255 00:16:16,759 --> 00:16:20,480 that they're doing something about this. But everybody knows that 256 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,879 that's easily to defeat. The main event will be the 257 00:16:23,919 --> 00:16:28,519 ballistic missiles and how many of those truly do remain. 258 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,200 And I might say, I mean, why is Israel doing 259 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,840 this now? I mean it became obvious as a result 260 00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:41,200 of the negotiations that President Trump's team was conducting that 261 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,159 the Ayatola, you know, through his negotiators, was not about 262 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,159 to voluntarily dismantle his nuclear program. And I think, and 263 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,440 I've said this from the outset, I believe in the 264 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,919 Ayatola's mind he believes he would rather have the airstrike 265 00:16:56,039 --> 00:16:59,000 against him and recover some of that, in other words, 266 00:16:59,039 --> 00:17:03,799 survive to build again, rather than voluntarily dismantle the program 267 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:07,079 that could be verified by independent inspectors. The second thing 268 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,119 is we all know and the Prime Minister is saying, 269 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,000 so Iran was accelerating their program while the negotiations are 270 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,720 going on their nuclear program. And the third thing, and 271 00:17:17,039 --> 00:17:19,960 this is important, they were attempting to recover their air 272 00:17:20,039 --> 00:17:23,920 defence systems that Israel was so successful in destroying back 273 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,960 in October. Well, if they take their ballistic missiles out, 274 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,160 they don't have much in terms of effectiveness. You know, 275 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,759 the air force is nineteen seventies vintage that we gave 276 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,480 to the shop and the reality is they don't have 277 00:17:39,599 --> 00:17:44,720 any consequential navy as patrol boats and frigates. Their landforce 278 00:17:44,799 --> 00:17:48,720 is large, but it's poorly led, poorly trained, and poorly equipped. 279 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:53,920 Their business has always been rockets and missiles and providing 280 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:59,839 support to their proxies. Their proxies have more better capability 281 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,000 and they have themselves. When you look at Iran comprehensively, 282 00:18:03,079 --> 00:18:07,000 those have always feared going to war with Iran is 283 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,519 going to be a major event here. It has never 284 00:18:09,599 --> 00:18:13,880 been that. Now. Iran does not have any military effectiveness 285 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,039 to stand up against the United States and Israel in 286 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:17,640 terms of an. 287 00:18:17,599 --> 00:18:20,319 Speaker 5: All out war. I don't see that in the offing 288 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:20,920 at all. 289 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,079 Speaker 1: So it doesn't sound like there's a lot of military 290 00:18:24,279 --> 00:18:29,839 umph from the Iranian folks. But Dan Hoffman, who is 291 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,680 the former station chief for the CIA at Moscow, has 292 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:35,799 this opinion about how strong in Iran is. 293 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 5: Well, we're still in early days. 294 00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 8: That is a key question that Prime Minister Netanya, who 295 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,480 will be asking his intelligence services and frankly President Trump 296 00:18:44,519 --> 00:18:47,799 will be doing the same thing to the US intelligence community, 297 00:18:47,839 --> 00:18:51,440 what means does Iran have to retaliate? Look, they've got 298 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,960 the proxy terrorists we talked about in the region, but 299 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,759 they've also got sleeper agents located in Europe and potentially 300 00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:01,279 here in the United States. They also hosted the leader 301 00:19:01,279 --> 00:19:04,359 of al Qaeda, safel Otto, who has been making his 302 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,599 way between Iran and Afghanistan. Iran's links with al Qaeda 303 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,880 are long standing, and so we have to be prepared 304 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,680 for anything, and I can tell you that the US 305 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,720 intelligence community at this point is on high alert, mounting 306 00:19:17,039 --> 00:19:20,200 a full court press, collecting the intelligence that will keep 307 00:19:20,279 --> 00:19:24,680 US safe. Israel's goal was to decapitate Iran's military. They 308 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,079 also killed the national security official who was leading the 309 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,880 nuclear negotiations with the United States, Sally Shamkhani. The goal 310 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,200 here for Israel was to destroy Iran's means of retaliation, 311 00:19:36,319 --> 00:19:38,960 but also to create the opportunity for others to be 312 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,519 potentially promoted into their place. I think, as President Trump noted, 313 00:19:42,519 --> 00:19:47,480 maybe they will be less intransitent, less defiant, less provocative. 314 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,240 But at this point Israel tried everything they could, so 315 00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:54,799 did the United States to bring a diplomatic resolution and 316 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,680 prevent the crisis that is unfolding in the Middle East. 317 00:19:58,039 --> 00:20:00,680 And I would emphasize at this point as well, Look, 318 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,400 this is the fog of war and where we go 319 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,119 from here is awfully hard to predict. And for sure, US, 320 00:20:06,319 --> 00:20:09,559 Israeli and our European allies, all of our intelligence services 321 00:20:09,559 --> 00:20:13,200 and militaries on high alert to detect threats way out 322 00:20:13,319 --> 00:20:16,039 left of boom before things get bad, and then preempt 323 00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:18,599 them if needed. Iran knows that if they strike US 324 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,880 military bases, even with their proxies, that they will face 325 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:26,160 the wrath of our military and Israel. Let's remember historically 326 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,720 Israel eliminated Iraqs nuclear capability in nineteen eighty one and 327 00:20:29,799 --> 00:20:33,400 Syrias in two thousand and seven. You're right about fourd oh. Look, 328 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,720 no atons you can get to through the air four doah. 329 00:20:36,079 --> 00:20:39,079 Israel doesn't have the military capability, but they do have 330 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,680 their operatives on the ground, and so the question is 331 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,240 whether they're getting at four to oh in some other way. 332 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,000 And we'll have to wait in the coming days, perhaps 333 00:20:49,319 --> 00:20:53,640 to gain some updates on the extent to which Israel 334 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,680 was able to target fourd oh. But that's a key 335 00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:00,640 part of Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment, and it's one that 336 00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:02,640 Israel would definitely consider. 337 00:21:02,319 --> 00:21:03,599 Speaker 5: A high priority to strike. 338 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 8: I always felt, and all the times that I've worked 339 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,680 with the Israelis back when I served as the director 340 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:13,400 of the CIAS Near East Division, that Israel just simply 341 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,519 wouldn't exist if they didn't have this extraordinary intelligence capability 342 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,319 not only to detect threats, but to conduct these sorts 343 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,000 of offensive operations. And we've seen the results of many 344 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,359 of them, including that pager operation against Hisbola operatives in Lebanon, 345 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,279 and the ability that Israel has had with pinpoint precision 346 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:38,359 to strike at leaders of Iran's proxy terrorists, including inside Iran. 347 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:43,000 Remember they took out Ismael Hainia in Tehran. So they 348 00:21:43,039 --> 00:21:47,200 have this ability to fuse their military operations with intelligence 349 00:21:47,279 --> 00:21:53,160 collection in extraordinary ways in the region and beyond. And 350 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,319 I think that's exactly what they're doing right now, and 351 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,839 a lot of it we're not going to see except 352 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,519 for the results when there are dead and senior military 353 00:22:01,559 --> 00:22:06,160 officials or Iranian nuclear facilities that have that have been 354 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:06,720 blown up. 355 00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: So that's the military reaction. Let's get Wall Street reaction. 356 00:22:10,599 --> 00:22:15,440 Rob Kaplan is the number two guy Goldman Sachs, former 357 00:22:15,839 --> 00:22:20,839 Dallas Fed president. On how the markets are reacting to 358 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:21,279 all of. 359 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 7: This, I think the market reaction, there's a market reaction. 360 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,240 Obviously in oil you see gold spiking. Say, the equity 361 00:22:29,279 --> 00:22:34,799 market reactions are somewhat muted the tenure. Interestingly, the treasury 362 00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:38,400 market reaction is somewhat muted. Normally it's the greater flight 363 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,519 to quality. So I think the markets are sort of 364 00:22:41,519 --> 00:22:45,480 in a weight and see mode muted initial reaction, and 365 00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:48,119 I think the FED will just watch this carefully day 366 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,759 to day to see if it's going to if it's 367 00:22:50,799 --> 00:22:54,000 going to be contained, or they're going to be a 368 00:22:54,079 --> 00:22:57,119 further escalation. But they'll watch it like the rest of us. 369 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:58,279 They'll watch it day to day. 370 00:22:58,759 --> 00:23:03,319 Speaker 1: So beyond the react to the war between Israel and Iran, 371 00:23:03,799 --> 00:23:06,759 the inflation numbers came out yesterday and the day before 372 00:23:06,799 --> 00:23:10,240 and we reported them to you. They were up just slightly, 373 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,559 nothing to really get all that nervous about, but not 374 00:23:13,839 --> 00:23:17,519 low enough for the Fed to absolutely be ready to 375 00:23:17,599 --> 00:23:21,400 drop interest rates. So Kaplan was asked about what his 376 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,359 reaction was to the inflation numbers. 377 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 7: Well, it tells you a couple of things. One, it 378 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:33,039 tells you if it weren't for the tariff situation, we're 379 00:23:33,039 --> 00:23:38,240 in a disinflating situation. We're in a disinflating world. And 380 00:23:38,319 --> 00:23:42,759 I think if it weren't for these prospective tariffs that 381 00:23:42,799 --> 00:23:45,839 will flow through and are flowing through, I think the 382 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,920 FED would be on their front foot to be looking 383 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:52,079 to cut rates. Now, that's the first thing that tells me. 384 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:57,000 And then the second thing is that they're going to 385 00:23:57,079 --> 00:24:00,960 watch how these tariffs where they're set in the next 386 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,319 several weeks, how they flow through the economy. But I 387 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,160 think if I were at the FED, it would encourage 388 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:12,039 me that after we get over the horizon, maybe the 389 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:17,279 tariff impact could be more muted than I fear, and 390 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,200 that over the horizon, I think the world by and 391 00:24:20,279 --> 00:24:24,079 large has got an over supply of goods that's driven 392 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,039 heavily by China, and maybe we can get back to 393 00:24:27,079 --> 00:24:30,440 taking action sometime during the fall. But I would want 394 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:32,599 to keep my options open. But that's what I would 395 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:33,799 take from these numbers. 396 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,559 Speaker 1: And before we get to the closing numbers for the day, 397 00:24:36,839 --> 00:24:40,160 a bit of rough day on Wall Street, but let's 398 00:24:40,519 --> 00:24:42,200 get up to day at least on what's going on 399 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:47,000 in California, because more protests are expected this weekend. I 400 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,039 thought things were dying down, but tomorrow there is this 401 00:24:52,079 --> 00:24:55,680 rally against Kings or whatever it's called. There's supposed to 402 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,599 be a bunch of rallies on various cities around the 403 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:03,960 country starting tomorrow. Tomorrow is also when the military parade 404 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:08,680 celebrating the two hundred and fiftieth birthday of the US Army, 405 00:25:08,759 --> 00:25:12,519 and it also happens to be Donald Trump's seventy ninth birthday. 406 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,039 So that's all going tomorrow. And then the courts have 407 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,720 gone back and forth on this as well, because remember 408 00:25:20,759 --> 00:25:23,440 we told you, Gavin Newsom went to the court sued 409 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,680 the White House and said you can't take control of 410 00:25:27,759 --> 00:25:33,680 the California National Guard, and a judge said, yes, we agree. 411 00:25:34,319 --> 00:25:37,599 So the White House immediately appealed. It went up to 412 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,960 the appellate level and the appellate appellant level said to 413 00:25:41,079 --> 00:25:44,880 the lower court judge, no, we're not going to stop this. 414 00:25:45,079 --> 00:25:50,119 So the White House still has control of the California 415 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:54,200 National Guard for now. And with these day, this big, 416 00:25:54,319 --> 00:25:56,920 this weekend of protest which are supposed to be big 417 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:02,039 and supposed to be tomorrow and Sunday that it will 418 00:26:02,079 --> 00:26:07,640 be there'll be more protests. So the California National Guard, 419 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,480 at least for this weekend is still going to be 420 00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:14,799 under the control of the President. So now let's get 421 00:26:14,799 --> 00:26:19,039 to the closing numbers. It's not that I've been holding off, 422 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,400 it's just it's been an ugly day. It started with 423 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:27,039 oil prices absolutely spiking because of the fact that you've 424 00:26:27,079 --> 00:26:31,759 got war in the Middle East and you've got Iran, 425 00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:34,279 but also the straight of horror moves. As I mentioned earlier, 426 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,720 a key point to ship twenty one million barrels of 427 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:42,880 oil every single day. So that is disrupting things and 428 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,279 it's sent the market lower. The Dow Jones Industrials today 429 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,680 down seven hundred and sixty nine. It was down over 430 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:55,039 eight hundred points at one late in the afternoon, the 431 00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:57,559 down now at forty two thousand and one ninety seven 432 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,519 s and P also down sixty eight points back below 433 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,960 six thousand, down to fifty nine seventy six. The price 434 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:10,480 of Nasdaq down two hundred and fifty five to nineteen thousand, 435 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:17,200 four hundred and six, and gold was up fifty one 436 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,920 dollars as you would expect flight to safety. The gold 437 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,440 price thirty four fifty three thousand, four hundred and fifty 438 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,799 three for one ounce of gold, and the price of oil, 439 00:27:28,079 --> 00:27:30,599 so you would also expect, would be way up five 440 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,400 dollars higher, up to seventy three dollars now for one 441 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,079 barrel of oil. So that's it for today. We were 442 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:45,759 watching incoming missiles into Tel Aviv. A couple of them 443 00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:50,559 have hit. They're saying that at least Disraeli defense forces 444 00:27:50,559 --> 00:27:54,680 say less than one hundred missiles have been fired during 445 00:27:54,759 --> 00:27:58,400 two waves of attacks from Iran, but at the same 446 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,200 time we saw a couple of them hit and they 447 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,400 say there are some people that are injured. So have 448 00:28:03,559 --> 00:28:07,400 yourself a wonderful weekend. Happy Father's Day to all of 449 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,119 you dads out there, and we'll be back here on Monday. 450 00:28:11,559 --> 00:28:15,000 Thanks for coming by today.