Speaker 1: You're live, my friend. Welcome to the best sports betting
show on the planet. This is Wager Talk Today. I
am your host, Andy Lang. It is five dollars Tuesday,
and we are jam packed. We are looking ahead to
NFL Week one. We got to try and get out
ahead of these numbers. We're gonna dive deep into college
football again. We got to get out ahead of these numbers.
And we're gonna take a look at the MLB slate today.
So if we're trying to lock in the best numbers
and when early, this is where you need to be.
Johnny's recording with Contender Series, So I'll give you the
steam report from what I can see. Ralph Michaels is
gonna join us. We're gonna talk Boise State, USF. We're
gonna look at the Eagles and Cowboys, and then we're
gonna look at a chart involving Week one NFL underdogs.
Brian Power is gonna join us. We're talking Miami, ohiwe
versus Wisconsin. We're gonna do Phillies and Mets. I'll do
a recap and I'll do the Dana White Contender series
making a case for the underdogs. For tonight's Contender Series.
So thanks so much for joining us live. Hit the
like button, leave us a comment in the comment section,
and make sure you are subscribed to the wager Talk
YouTube channel. Football season is absolutely here. Make sure you're subscribed,
join the wager Talk family. Get notified when all of
these videos go live and when they're released. So it's
five dollars Tuesday, guys. You know that it is the
best value in all of sports betting. Every single capper
has our top play up for just five bucks. Same
best bets or firing on for the price of a
cup of coffee. I got my cup of coffee here,
stack a mix and try someone new, Try your favorite
Haiti capper. Whatever you do, do not miss out my
five dollar bet. Every Tuesday is Contender series or fresh
off a win last week. It is locked in and
sore dozens more. You take advantage of Ralph Michaels, take
advantage of Brian Power, anybody you want your favorite Haiti
capper or try somebody new. Five dollars Tuesday is live.
All right, Let's bring in Ralph Michaels. Let's talk Boise State,
USF Eagles, Cowboys and the chart. Ralph Happy Tuesday, man,
how are you hey?
Speaker 2: I hope everyone celebrated the birthday yesterday. Wager Talk is
now eleven years and one day.
Speaker 1: It's amazing, amazing. So all right, Ralph, Let's get to
Boise State in USF. This is an interesting game. I mean,
Boise pretty much has lost most of the not most,
like ninety percent of their rushing yards from last year
ash Genty, But they are returning their quarterback USF. They're
replacing running backs and wide receivers with the transfer portal,
but their coaching staff is still going to be a
little bit consistent. We got Boise State a little movement
here down to minus six. I know this was at
one point seven and six and a half over under
a sixty three. What's your take on Boise State in
South Florida.
Speaker 2: Well, listen, even with the loss of Ashton Genty, who
came up twenty seven yards short of Barry Sanders all
time single season rushing record, the Broncos are still one
of eleven teams in the FBS to have their entire
full time coaching staff back. That is a lot of continuity.
Now missing is going to be a big deal, but
this offensive line is not only the best in the
Mountain West. It's one of the top O lines in
the country. Four returning starters are back, including an All American,
and the one starter they have to replace is from
a player who started thirteen games two years ago, only
started three games last year and got injured. To me,
that is basically returning your entire offensive line again. Now
you have to understand that Maddox Madson's numbers likely are
going to go down a bit when you have a
guy that's rushing for that much. When you run the playoftion,
there's a lot of open receivers. That's going to be
the toughest thing for them to focus. I do say
they have a solid running back and with this O line,
I have no question he is still going to top
one thousand yards. So not quite the drop off that
you would expect. But I look at USF and this
is a team I like very much. So you look
at Alex Skolish. He took over a team that had
I think seven wins out of forty prior to him
taking though there were four and twenty nine going back
for the last three years. But getting under seven to
six back to back years has been a step this year.
They have solid returning people, including a quarterback. Now, remember
their quarterback who two years ago threw for twenty three
hundred yards, twenty six touchdowns, eleven interceptions, and rushed for
eight hundred yards was injured after a couple of starts
last year. I think there's going to be positivity there.
Two years ago he also had thirty eight sacks. The
O line much improved this season. Now, I did go
to the database and it does tell us that in
game one in college football, if it's an FBS versus
FBS team home dog since twenty fourteen, are fifty eight
and thirty six sixty one percent A very positive number there.
And then you look at Boise, this is a five
to thirty start. They moved it to five point thirty
to kick off the college football season on thirty couple
hours early. Boises made making that trip from Boise, Idaho
to Tampa, Florida, where it's going to be ninety plus degrees,
eighty plus humidity, and it's going to feel like one
hundred and fifteen degrees.
Speaker 3: That's a tough that's a tough.
Speaker 2: Situation for a team wearing dark blue jerseys on the
road in Florida in August. USF is a team I
have on the on the rise up this year. I
feel comfortable taking the six points in this game. The
underdog my best bet, first best bet in college football.
Speaker 1: All Right, I like this. So Ralph talk to us
about what the handicapping is like these days. Now. I mean,
this is going into the season, this is completely different
than what it was ten years ago. Heck even five
years ago, trying to how are you doing this research,
trying to figure out this transfer portal? And nil? Or
is this just we're taking it one step at a
time because it is so new.
Speaker 3: No, and a great point.
Speaker 2: And I think the biggest difference is my power ratings.
You know, I come back from old school working for
Phil Steele and North Coast Sports and Power Sweep and
with Mark Lawrence and the gold Sheet, and I have
learned to do a very good set of power ratings.
Three or four years ago, Andy, I would use my
power ratings week one religiously. Well, now I throw those
power ratings out the first three or four weeks of
the season. I still do them, I still update them,
but until I actually get to see these teams play
or study them enough, I don't use those power ratings.
So it's much more important to look at nil the
transfer kids in the upper conferences because they have many
more transfer than the lower conferences.
Speaker 3: The lower conferences only lose people.
Speaker 2: They're going to get very few upgrades and positions because
very few players transfer down. So it's just a different
way we hand to handicap. I look at form, I
look at returning units. I look at those that do
have cohesiveness. But again, throw out the power ratings the
first few weeks, at least in my book, I do.
But to me, I'm conservative week one and I'll continue
to get more involved with deeper cards as the season
regresses through the first few weeks.
Speaker 1: Let's move to NFL. Let's take a look at week one.
I know you got a chart coming up. Let's talk
about this. How about them Cowboys? Have you watched the
Cowboys doc by the way on Netflix? Have you watched it?
Speaker 3: I have not.
Speaker 2: I think I watched the first year it was out,
I watched it. But I don't like watching those things
because it affects you so much the way you handicap,
So I like not watching them.
Speaker 3: Put the blinders on and just go on.
Speaker 2: But you know in this game, Andy, you know, you
look at what these teams did last year, and you
think this line should be probably higher.
Speaker 3: Super Bowl champs.
Speaker 2: Let me run down these rankings offense and defense yards
per game Dallas seventeen and twenty eight, Philly eight and
one points per game, Dallas twenty one and thirty one,
Philly five and one yards per Playdallas twenty and twenty eight,
Philadelphia eleven and one. That kind of team with a
Philadelphia Eagles offense that's returning ten of their starters, seems
to me they should be favored by more than a touchdown.
But let's hold on a second. I think Michael Parsons
is probably the most Michael Parsons to the Dallas Cowboys
in that run game. It's probably the most important defensive
player in the NFL. I think he's at least worth
a point, maybe a point and a half. Philadelphia ran
over chicag ran over the Dallas Cowboys last year. By
the way, Philly has covered five or six in the series,
and if Michael Parsons isn't there, that is a big
concern for me. Philly, of course, outscored Dallas seventy five
to thirteen. The last two meetings last season. Now those
numbers are strong. Dallas is the train wreck. Dallas has
a new head coach, and remember Jerry Jones only hires
new coaches that will do exactly what he tells them
to do. So it's a very lame duck head coach
in a situation. Heck, Brian Schottenheimer couldn't get couldn't get
hired as an oc anywhere, yet he gets a Dallas
Cowboy head coaching job. Big concern to me, the thing
that stops me from using Philly in this are some trends.
We're gonna talk about Division. We're gonna talk about Week
one dogs, but I want to.
Speaker 3: Bring this up as well.
Speaker 2: When Division teams play each other in Week one, you're
familiar with the stadiums, you stay in the same hotels,
you haven't had any film on this year's changes. So
if you just blindly bet Andy teams in Week one
that are in a division game with double revenge sixty
three point five percent. If you look at road teams,
Division road teams with double revenge seventy percent, and Division
road teams like the Cowboys as a away dog a
four and a half or more twenty one to five
eighty one percent. So this is the situation where I've
got a lot of great trend Dallas. My eye test
and numbers tell me Philly. So I'm gonna lay off
the side. What I am gonna do is we talked
about this Dallas defense, We've talked about this Philadelphia offense,
and I think is a very fair price at the
Philadelphia Eagles team total over twenty seven and a half
as they get their Super Bowl rings next Thursday.
Speaker 1: I'm a huge Phillies Paraphillies. I'm a huge Eagles fan.
I think they're always underrated. I can't think of a
Super Bowl team that just talked about less than this
team in terms of expectations. It's just like everyone's being like, ah,
they're gonna regress. It starts with Jalen Hurts. I'm a
huge Jalen Hurts fan. Again, how many times are we
gonna count this guy out? All he does is win
literally everywhere he goes. But hey, I'm gonna follow the trends,
and yeah, touchdown is a lot, It's a lot. I
don't know, Andy, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Since two thousand and four, there has not been a
repeat winner of the any NFC East.
Speaker 1: I know, I know, I just I can't wrap my
head around that they're so good. They're so good, they're
built for the regular season, playoffs, whatever, whatever. I just yeah, yeah, chat,
they're underrated. You go look at power rankings. Don't They're
not even the top three or four. It's like this
team beat everybody last year. All right, Ralph, it is
five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up for everyone?
Speaker 2: I do have a five dollars ner fee playloaded and
make sure you check out my ner fee plays every
day on TikTok and YouTube TV. I do the free
guide as well on my homepage, w T Buzz backslash RM.
Speaker 1: All right, great stuff from Ralph Michaels. Yeah. So the
big takeaway, Ralph is we got to look at these
underdogs in week one. That's that's kind of the thet's
looking at Andy and let's show just show how much
we have to look at those underdogs.
Speaker 2: This shock the heck out of me. And you know,
there's a couple of things I want to say here.
You know, I put out a lot of trends. I
put out a lot of angles, but these trends and
angles are probably only twenty percent of my handicapping. So
don't fall in love because you see one number on
one chart for one team.
Speaker 3: It's still is only going to be You got to
look at situations.
Speaker 2: You gotta look at matchups, you gotta look at history,
you gotta look at you know, a group injury. So
but when you look at NFL Week one dogs, what
impresses me about this chart is I went from two
thousand and nine on the left hand side, since twenty
twelve on the right hand side, and you're consistent in
all four categories. And it's been even better since twenty twelve.
Since two thousand and nine, But take a look at
the top line, Andy, if you blindly bet every Week
one dog since two thousand and nine, you've cast fifty
four percent, fifty five percent since twenty twelve. I talked
about division dogs. If you blindly played every division dog
in the NFL since two thousand and nine, sixty five percent,
sixty six percent since twenty twelve, Division home dogs twenty
four and seven, seventy seven percent, eighty two percent since
twenty twelve, and division home dogs of one and a
half or more Andy seventy nine percent and eighty five
percent going seventeen and three since twenty twelve. Basically, I'll
say this, friends don't let friends bet many week one
NFL Division home dogs.
Speaker 1: So when we look at this chart, you're not saying, like,
blindly bet it, oh may, Maybe you're saying blindly bet
History tells us this, but it's more of just a
tool in your toolbox to look at get Like, if
there is a division home dog that you like, you
know that this is kind of one of your reasonings
for it.
Speaker 3: Well, you got to be number one.
Speaker 2: There's times like cherry pick numbers right to get a
wow number in beteen, but you could see these are
just basics. There is no cherry picking here. So when
you have this type of sample size for this type
of length, when I start looking at division dogs and
Division home dogs, I may not bet those teams blindly,
but it'll be a hell of a hell of a
long shot for me to bet it that trend. So
you're not always having the bet trends. But remember, leaving
a loser off versus putting a winner on is advantageous
because you're saving that ten percent. So if there's two
games you wanted to use and they are both division
favorites away favorites, and you say I'm gonna leave them
both off the board and they split, you still saved
yourself ten percent. So you may not want to play
them all, but be very careful playing against those solid
trends of those percentages with that length of time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so important. What do we say, Sometimes the
best bets you make are the ones leave off the card.
So if yeah, those charts, if it talks you out
of a play that you were on the fence about,
it's worth its weight in gold. So great stuff from
Ralph Michael's here. So one more time, Ralph, five dollars Tuesday,
tell us about it.
Speaker 3: Five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 2: But I do want to mention I do have a
five percent up at wager Talk for college football this Friday.
My college football five percents went four to o. Last year,
I finished number two in college football on the season
behind mister Ross Benjamin and my NFL and college football
regular season bets bets seventeen and two ninety percent. Check
it out WT buzz backslash r M.
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph Michaels, thanks so much for joining us.
Good stuff, good stuff. Take a take a screenshot of
that chart helps your handicapping in week two. So all right,
let's do the steam Report. Literally right before we were
gonna go to the steam Report to start the show,
my feed went out. I'm just joking. Gianni's was sending,
Johnny was just reminding us he does the Steam Report.
We're just we're just posers here. All right, Let's take
a look here at Thursday college football. See if we
missed any key numbers here. NC State looks like we
missed that key number. If you haven't bet that when
it opened up minus twelve, that's up to minus fourteen.
Akron has taken some money they were Let's see, Wyoming
was minus nine and a half now down to minus seven,
so if that dips below that touchdown, you could probably
see some buyback. A lot of money has come in
on Rutgers. They opened minus ten and a half. They're
all the we have to minus fifteen and a half.
So they've gone through that thirteen, thirteen and a half
and fourteen. I even see a book at minus sixteen.
And if we want to look ahead to Friday, if
you guys want to try and get out of some
of those moves, money is coming in on San Jose State.
They opened minus ten and a half. It's just a
one point move, but you're seeing eleven and a half
pop up against Central Michigan. Money has come in on Charlotte.
Appalachian State is down to minus six and a half.
We went through that key number seven, so we went
from minus eight and a half down to minus six.
And the other big move is on sam Houston State.
They opened up at thirteen and a half point dogs.
They're now down to ten and a half. So if
you like sam Houston State, I would get on them
before that thing moves to ten. And we have a
one point move on Georgia Tech against Colorado minus three
and a half. That's now up to minus four and
a half. I guess there's a big move in Michigan State,
but it's a huge number. Seventeen and a half they opened,
it's now twenty and a half. So you want to
lay the wood, you gotta get those those three touchdowns.
So we can look at baseball here, not a lot
of movement that I see when we go over baseball.
It's just not a lot of bets have been made
at this point, so only only moves I really see
some money has come in on Saint Louis, Some money
has come come in on the Cubs. Fading Verlander here,
who I believe is one to ten this year, absolutely
stunning for Landers one and Teddy hadn't pitched that bad.
The athletics of all teams are taking a little bit
of money. I guess people don't like Morton here. Detroit
opened minus one forty they're down to minus one twenty five,
and Houston opened at minus three p forty one. Book
now has him at minus three seventy five. I would
just say, be careful laying minus three seventy five against
this Colorado Rockies team that ends up winning like one
out of three games and just crushes everyone's everyone's parlay,
So be careful on that one. And then there's some
movement on the over on the Seattle and San Diego
game seven and a half that's up to eight. I
see an eight and a half popping up there as well.
So those your MLB steam if you want any w
NBA over in Phoenix and Los Angeles, over in Seattle
and indian I feel like every time we talk about
steam in WNBA, it's just like the overs, like six
to seven point moves. So, all right, Chris, let's go
to all around the world. Let's give the people some
free plays. Had some fun yesterday. We missed the Asia Wilson,
but we hit that three to one over on the
alt line on the Brewers game, and then we hit
the soccer free play on Sola to have a point,
so that it was a good day for all around
the world. All right, let's go to the Mercury and
the Sparks where Kia Jackson over one and a half
made threes. This is the best prop that is going
in sports right now, and nobody knows about it. She's
gone over in eight games. The books have not moved
this number. Her volume of shooting is way up. She's
averaging seven three point attempts this month, and the shooting
percentage is through the roof. She's been on fire. This
has been one of the easiest bets you can make
this month. So is she gonna continue this into ten
straight made games twelve? I don't But if you've been
making off for Kia Jackson, keep going back to her
raise at the Guardians. This one comes off of the
wager Talk Free picks page. Look at the raised money
line here. The Rays one, they're three and zero. Last
week they won nine to nothing, and this is crazy. Guardians,
they've lost six straight when they have zero runs and
like the last twenty eight innings or something like, the
Guardians' bats have just been a mnemic. So getting raise
at plus money is interesting. And then we mentioned the
Diamondbacks and Brewers yesterday. I'm going right back to this
Brewers team. Over four and a half on their team
total fat for Arizona, eighteen earned runs last twenty eight innings.
The Brewers put up seven last night against Arizona after
losing two straight. Maybe their offense is back on track.
I'm willing to believe it. So let's take a peek
at the Brewers here. All right, Yeah, Roger, we mentioned
there's a little bit of steam on the Cubs. I
would expect a lot of steam to come in throughout
the course of the day. You gotta remember, when we're
recording this right now, it's twelve twenty Eastern time. It's
only nine to twenty out in Vegas and out out West,
So you gotta believe that there's gonna be a lot
of money on a on a public team like the
Cubs and then fading that Verlander. So let's bring in
Brian Power here. Let's talk some college football, let's talk
some MLB, and we also got to talk the Blitz. Brian. Uh,
first show was last week. It was great. So tell
us real quick about the Blitz. It's going to be
every Thursday, right after this show.
Speaker 3: Yes, every Thursday to Ive at one p m. Eastern.
We take your guys questions. I see some questions actually
rolling in right here about college football. Guys, if you
want to get if you want your question on this
week's college mostly guaranteed to be answered, tune into The
Blitz one pm Eastern Thursday, immediately following Andy and Wage Talk. Today,
I'll be joined by Ralph Michaels you just heard. Uh.
I'm not sure who the other persons, but we'll have
it will be another one of our top college football
handicappers and uh, we'll just again what this is a
special week too. It's a great week to watch if
you missed last week because last week we went in
depth on all five games. This week we want to
cover as much. There's games Friday, there's game Saturday, there's
game Sunday, there's games Monday. Anything you want to know
about ask away. We'll get to it. Obviously. Some big
matchups Ohio State, Texas, LSU, Clemson got Notre Dame Miami
on Sunday. Even if you want to know about the
smaller matchup, that's what we're here for. One live. You
gotta live if you want that question answer.
Speaker 1: Oh man, I can't wait to come with some bizarro
questions for the panel. You guys, there's gonna be some
questions coming out of nowhere from me. Bro, you just
guaranteed that you have to answer them. No, I'm just kidding.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you. The answer is hand, Thank you very much.
I don't need a collmar brush. You know, we just
take a little, take a little jel use the hand.
Leave it all messed up. That's the answer, buddy. The
hair's going a little gray, but I was blessed with
a lot of it. Andy, That's so at least I
got something going for me in that.
Speaker 1: For Hey, that's that's the big win. That's the big
win right there. So all right, let's jump let's jump
into some Let's start with college football here. Let's take
a look at the Wisconsin in Miami of Ohio team.
I mean, this is a Miami team, Correptman. They lost
all eleven offensive starters. They only have three defensive starters.
It's a brand new team. This is crazy, Wisconsin. I
know they got that new transfer quarterback from Maryland. They do.
They are returning some offensive linemen. I was reading that
the history is terrible for Miami when they faced out
of conference opponents early in the season, like they beat
like one of them in the last like twenty years.
What's your take on this game here? This has got
to be a tough one today, Haiticap. I mean, how
can you possibly predict what we're gonna get from Miami
in this one?
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna try. I think that's why you're having
me on, so hopefully we all learn a little something.
I have gone to be hung out at both of
these campuses, by the way, in a long time ago.
Both fun places, Madison, Wisconsin and Oxford, Ohio, if you
had a chance. But let's tell you what's gonna happen.
Let me tell you what's gonna happen in the football
game here, Wisconsin. What do you need to know? Twenty
two year bull streak was snapped last season. Andy. They
finished just five and seven straight up improving on that
win total here in twenty twenty five gonna be pretty tough.
Why because the Badgers face arguably the toughest schedule in
the entire country this year. They draw eight of the
top eleven teams in the Big Ten. Yes, let me
repeat that, eight of the top eleven teams in the
Big Ten, which is an eighteen team conference. College Football's
in trouble with the map. That's okay, But they also
face Alabama in the non time. Why do I bring
that up? Well, I think it's pretty imperative for Luke
Fickle to have a strong start these first two games,
which against Miami Ohio or on them in just a second,
and then Middle Tennessee next week, because if they want
to get back to a bowl this year, they've got
a You would expect they're gonna win regardless these first
two weeks. But I think in terms of building confidence
for the rest of the season, Andy, they need to
look good. So you mentioned some of the history here
and how it is not exactly smiling on Miami Ohio.
More often than not, they take their lumps in the
non conference portion of this sk schedule before ramping up
and competing for a MAC title. I know the macwell,
I went to a MAX school. Miami's just twelve and
thirty straight up under Chuck Martin against non conference opponents.
On top of that, how about zero to eight against
the number their last eight road openers. And this one
figures to go pretty poorly because Wisconsin, as you'd expect,
has had the max number twenty three to zero straight
up the last twenty three games against MAC opponents. They'd
covered fifteen of those twenty three. So the question is
you mentioned the big number here can Wisconsin covering It's
very interesting. We have a seventeen and a half point
favorite here. Let's not bury the total. Andy's well total
thirty nine and a half. So we have a seventeen
and a half point favorite at a total of thirty
nine and a half. My view, Bad is probably gonna
win pretty big here. Again, I think it's really important
for that strong for a strong start, build confidence for
the rest of the season given the schedule that awaits.
I like you referenced this Andy at the top of
the breakdown. I like what Fickle did in the transfer portal.
The team got a lot stronger in the trenches on
both side. The ball that Phil Longo higher when they
brought him, and that was a kid nobody wants to
run an air rate in Madison, Wisconsin. That was a
curious higher. So I'm glad he's out of there. I
think in Madison they're glad he's out of there. We're
gonna see a return I think to a traditional style
of Wisconsin football. And then you mentioned it Miami Ohio
losing all eleven starters from last year on the offensive
side of the ball makes it pretty tough sledding for
game one. I would play Wisconsin both first half and
full game here. I think they run away from him
pretty quickly and then hold on for a big win,
maybe about two percent on each.
Speaker 1: You're right, an air raid in Madison, Wisconsin, and it's
not gonna go very well in zero degree weather. Madison
unbelievably fun party college town. Like yes, just unbelieve they
know how to party. My family's are up there. Uh yeah,
they know how to get down in Wisconsin. All right.
A couple questions here while we have you on Carson Beck,
any thoughts on Carson Beck? We got questions. Justin says
he's looking to fade Miami against the spread as much
as possible this year. Agreed? Disagree? Or is this just
week one?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna probably try to find a way to well.
I think I talked about it last week Miami Florida?
Was it last week? Two weeks ago? Is one of
those two weeks that I was on We talked about
Florida and how it is tough to invest your money
in Mario Crystaball, especially in a big game. I get
the trepidation with back in the Canes against the Notre
Dame team that obviously played for a national championship last
year but got part of me. I know when Sunday
rolls around, I'm gonna be looking to probably get involved
in the Miami side as a home dog. I think
Order Dame takes a step back. Let's not forget their
quarterback situation. I think that's more important in a true
road game right off the rip, I would not be
looking to go big on. No, That's what I'll say
for this game. I have not made a decision, but
I can tell you with ninety five percent confidence, I
will not be on Notre Dame as a side.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's move to MLB here and let's
talk the Phillies and the Mets. Lozardo for Philly, Manea
by the Mets. Manaia has absolutely been lit up the
last four starts. You know me, I love team totals.
I am staring hard about this team total to fade Manea.
But what's your breakdown on this game?
Speaker 3: Well, maybe a little bit different here. Let's talk about
what we saw yesterday first before we talk about today.
Phillies took money yesterday in the market. I don't know
if that was on the Steam report or not, and
that did not work out too well. Because the Phillies
lose the series opener by a score of thirteen to three.
There's not gonna be a lack of motivation on either
side here, guys. Obviously, some teams have fallen out of contention.
That's a big part of the handicap as we roll
into September in Major League Baseball. Some teams just do
not care. But the Phillies, they're looking to expand their
leading the division. Not to mention they're also competing for
a first round by come playoff time. But even after
the big win last night, I think the Mets still
probably the more motivated team here. And it doesn't necessarily
guarantee victory obviously, but not only are they chasing the
Phillies in Thesi, but the Mets have to worry about
the Reds too. Are only two and a half games
in the rear view in the race for that last
NL wild card, so similar to yesterday. I actually disagree
with the way this line is moving. I think at home,
where they have a four four, pardon me, a forty
two and twenty four record, the Mets should be slight
favorites in this game. This is a team that, remember,
had the best record in all of baseball back on
June twelfth. I know that was a while ago. Okay,
they were forty five and twenty four overall at the time,
just twenty five and thirty seven since. But overall, you
have to keep a big picture mind, you cannot. I
always preach us on these breakdowns. I do here on
the wage Talk YouTube channel. You can't fall victim the
recency bias. I know two months is kind of a
long time, but overall, I think the Mets are still
a lot closer to the top than they are the
bottom of the league. I still have them power rate
in the top ten. Now will they go eleven for
nineteen with runners in scoring position again like they did
last night. No, probably not, but worth noting Philly stumer
Jezus Lazaro. And this is where I'm willing to get
involved with the Mets. Andy why Bizarre has been guilty
at times of tipping pitches, and he's had four starts
where he's allowed six or more runs and five or
fewer innings, So I think the offense could be there
for the Mets. You mentioned minea. He has absolutely struggled
in August. Team's zero to four his last four starts.
But you loill get expected versus actual ERI. I know
the commoners love when I bring up expected ERA. He
has a three point seven to seven expected ERA versus
five point one to five actually ERA, so that's a
sign he's pitched actually a little bit better than what
some of the traditional numbers will tell you. Also, he's
a lefty, and this is key because since the break,
Phillies bottom ten both batting average and WRC plus against lefties. Furthermore,
twenty three point three percent strikeout rate against South Bass
for the season. And yes, the Mets have done well
at home against the Phillies this season and beyond. So
I'd like to take a small flyer on the New
York Mets. Here. This is a three percent client play.
Speaker 1: Oh nice, good for all right, So we just got
a free three percent client play on the Mets. There,
all right, Going to look at that Phillies team Phillies
team total over. Maybe they can win big.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're all happy. Yeah, exactly, There we go, there
we go.
Speaker 1: All right, Brian, once again, tell us about the Blitz
one more time. It's live, it's interactive. You guys go
on there and ask as many questions as you want
about the college football slate one more time. Tell us
about the Blitz and tell them what you have up
for five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, any we're gonna start with the biggest games obviously,
such as Texas, Ohio State, but any game you want
to know about, jump in there, one pm Eastern. Like
Andy just said, immediately following wage you talk today on Thursday.
So Thursday, one pm Eastern. Get those questions ready. We'll
talk Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, even TCU North Carolina on Monday,
if you are so inclined. Gave you a lot of
great information on the program last week. I know that
I did unfortunately get my big play wrong over the
weekend on Kansas State. I thought they'll play it that
Iowa State for the record, but no one cares because
they lost the game. But every other game I think
I was right on the show that we talked about.
So and again I have a five of course we've
been talking and you see on your screen right there,
it is five dollars Tuesday at wagertalk dot com, my
best bet, a four percent play is currently available for
you guess at five dollars. I've won five straight in
nlb any perfect five and over the last three days.
I believe that has me a top the leader board
over at wagertalk dot com, so WT dot buzz slash
BP as we look. I gave you the Mets for free,
got one more for you. We look to make it
seven in a row after tonight on the Diamond.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll be pulling for you seven seven seven,
Let's go for it. Thanks Brian, have fun on the blitz.
Can't wait to join you. Thanks so much for joining us.
Great breakdowns. Let's go to contender series here real quick.
We're gonna do this. We're do this every week where
I will look at the Contender Series matchups and I'll
try and make a case for the underdogs. So let's
pull up the screen here. We'll start in the main
event here with Ryan Godra and Trent Miller. The case
for Trent Miller is that he can get this to
the ground. He's much better on the ground. If he
keeps it on the feet, he's gonna get blasted and
he's gonna get knocked out. Gonjo's by far the better striker,
but trit Miller has looked good on the ground at times.
Does that translate to getting a contract on Contender Series?
Not so much. But if he can get a finish
on the ground, he'll get one. That's the case for
trit Miller. I'm gonna come back to this next fight.
Let's move to Christian Prez and Sosa. I actually really
like Christian Prez in this one. Sosa has been around
the block. He's fought in belitor, he's fought in PFL,
He's fought really good level competition. But I think Perez
has the better upside. He's taken basically a year and
a half off from MMA. He did fight in karate combat.
I love that he took a year and a half
off this guy. It's like fourteen pro fights at age
twenty six. His striking is good and if you watched
face offs, my gosh, does he have a huge cheering
section for him. He looks confident, looks like he's finally
grown into his full you know man, powerful body. I
like Pez to get it done by decision here Dante
Johnson and Abby. The only case for Abby is if
Dante Johnson tires himself out beating the you know what
out of Abby in the first round, because that's what
he's gonna do. Abby like this this Dario at Abby's
not very good, but Dante Johnson's way shorter, but he's
way powerful. He's gonna hit him a million times in
the first round. If Abby does not get knocked out,
he maybe he can get the win. If if Johnson
tires out, but that one's tough. Damian Wilson, Mario Barbosa, Wilson,
he has incredible knees in the clinch. He's knocked out
two guys with knees in the clinch, which you don't
see very often. But if this stays at range Barbosa
all day, and then this this Alick Lorenz. I cannot
make a case for him. I just I can't make
a case for him. He's he's not good, striking isn't good,
his takedowns are are not good. I think he gets
melted in the first round. I mean, it's minus eleven
hundred for a reason. But I cannot in good face say, yeah,
sprinkle a little bit money on this dog. Just just can't.
So that's your Contender Series breakdown of my five dollars
best bet for today is in Contender Series. We hit
our best bet last week, so we're looking to make it.
Make that two in a row. So all right, Chris,
let's do the weekly recap here real quick and we'll
get out of if you guys could hit the like
button every week. You guys, Hey, let's let's talk recap,
but let's talk our portfolio. So here we go. Last
week was an incredible week. We went eighteen and six
for plus twenty four units. That's if you flat bet,
if you follow different percentages, calculate them all on your own.
NFL was good, WNBA was good, MLB just lost little soccer.
MMA was great, Golf was fantastic, Cricket was fantastic. I
really don't have any any I don't have any problems
with any bets that we did, so it was a much,
much needed, big boost to the bankroll. So we have
a thirty day special up. The promo code is Andy thirty.
It gets fifty percent off thirty day special. So we're
coming off of a huge, huge week looking to add
to the profits this is. These are all bets that
I bet with my own money. So that was a really,
really nice week for all of clients. So we did
our portfolio last week and people said they like looking
at it. So all right, I'll share my personal portfolio
where I am. Leave this comment if you're interested in
this or if you want nothing to do with it.
So we could pull that up real quick, Chris and
I could show everybody where I'm at. One of the
reasons why the week was big is I've had to
pull money out of my sports betting bank role for
my new business. I need to invest in my business.
The production company is doing really good overall for the year.
Stocks and crypto are good for the year, but the
prices are going down and it's getting ready to be
a good time to buy stuff. I got my eye
on bitcoin This is not financial advice. I'm just an
idiot on the internet. It's just really really expensive launching
this new business. But I was able to take a
chunk from last week's winnings and invest it into that.
So I'm building my production company and my new businesses up.
I'm going to continue to try and put money into
those businesses and in the stocks and cryptos while it's
dipping down now, and I'm gonna try to avoid as
much personal spending as possible. I'm terrified but really excited
over the next six months. But for me, it's buckle up,
don't spend a lot of cash, and keep those investments coming.
So but sports betting bank roll has been pretty good
this year, down a little bit, but the last two
years have been really really good, and we're coming off
that big week, so I have high hopes for the
rest of the year. So all right, yeah, Hobby, you
said the same thing about bitcoin. Yeah, I mean this
thing I'm looking right now. It's down to one oh nine.
This is the lowest it's been in a month, and
it tends to do this every fall. You go look
at the fall, it just kind of dips below. So
I'm trying to pick my spots. I don't have a
lot of cash sitting aside ready to get in there.
But I'm with you one hundred percent, Hobby, so we'll see,
we'll see, all right, Thanks so much for joining us. Guys.
It's five dollars Tuesday. We're gonna have a great Tuesday.
I just know it. Get as many five dollars plays
as you want. Make sure you're betting responsible though. We
don't want a huge chunk of our bank roll a
bunch of plays just on a Tuesday. But try out
as many Haiti cappers as you want. Try your favorite,
try your new one. Helps to see if you vibe
with a Haiti capper, if you really like their write ups.
But really appreciate everybody in the chat us a comment
tell us what your best bets are. So uh, the
kid Brian Power looks like a vacuum salesman? Do they
even have those anymore? Chris? Is it a thing vacuum salesman?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like there used to be door to door vacuum
salesman when I was a kid. I haven't seen a
door to door vacuum salesman. Like, why would you need
why would you need that? When there's Amazon and Walmart
dot Com. I don't even know if they make vacuum
salesman anymore, but appreciate the comment. He'll get a kick
out of that. So all right, that's gonna do it
for us. Have a great Tuesday. Everybody hit that like
button on your way out. Much love, good luck on
your bets night. We'll do it again tomorrow, same time,
same place. Take care,